Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for CEMPAKA-21 in China from 18 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC to 23 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000094-CHN
Exposed countries	China
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	n.a.
Vulnerability	Medium (China)
Landfall	between 20 Jul 2021 06:00 - 20 Jul 2021 12:00 in China

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	37 km/h	n.a.	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 23.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
2	18 Jul 2021 18:00	102	12.4 million	No people	China
3	19 Jul 2021 00:00	111	7.1 million	No people	China
4	19 Jul 2021 06:00	120	14.2 million	Few people	China
5	19 Jul 2021 12:00	120	12.4 million	300 thousand	China
6	19 Jul 2021 18:00	120	22.5 million	850 thousand	China
7	20 Jul 2021 00:00	120	78.5 million	860 thousand	China
8	20 Jul 2021 06:00	130	52.4 million	1.4 million	China
9	20 Jul 2021 12:00	139	53.8 million	1.8 million	China
10	20 Jul 2021 18:00	102	28.6 million	2.2 million	China
11	21 Jul 2021 00:00	65	44.6 million	2.2 million	China
12	21 Jul 2021 06:00	65	36.9 million	2.2 million	China
13	21 Jul 2021 12:00	65	31.5 million	2.2 million	China
14	21 Jul 2021 18:00	65	31.2 million	2.2 million	China
15	22 Jul 2021 00:00	65	31.3 million	2.2 million	China
16	22 Jul 2021 06:00	56	23.2 million	2.2 million	China
17	22 Jul 2021 12:00	56	23.2 million	2.2 million	China
18	22 Jul 2021 18:00	46	23.2 million	2.2 million	China
19	23 Jul 2021 00:00	46	23.2 million	2.2 million	China
20	23 Jul 2021 06:00	46	23.2 million	2.2 million	China
21	23 Jul 2021 12:00	37	23.2 million	2.2 million	China

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
2	18 Jul 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	20.8, 113.2
3	19 Jul 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	210000 people	20.9, 113.1
4	19 Jul 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.9 million people	21, 113
5	19 Jul 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	<1000 people	1.7 million people	21.2, 112.7
6	19 Jul 2021 18:00	Category 1	120	<1000 people	1.8 million people	21.2, 112.5
7	20 Jul 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	870000 people	13.4 million people	21.3, 112.4
8	20 Jul 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	1.4 million people	16.2 million people	21.4, 112.3
9	20 Jul 2021 12:00	Category 1	139	1.8 million people	21.5 million people	21.7, 112	China
10	20 Jul 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	11.6 million people	21.7, 111.4	China
11	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	9.3 million people	21.9, 110.9	China
12	21 Jul 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.1, 110.9	China
13	21 Jul 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.5, 110.5	China
14	21 Jul 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.8, 109.5	China
15	22 Jul 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.6, 109.1	China
16	22 Jul 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.6, 108.3	China
17	22 Jul 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.1, 107.9	China
18	22 Jul 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	21.4, 107.4	Viet Nam
19	23 Jul 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	20.8, 107.4
20	23 Jul 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	20.7, 107.6
21	23 Jul 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	20, 107.3
21	24 Jul 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	19.1, 107.2
21	24 Jul 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	28	no people	no people	18.6, 107.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
China

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Guangxi	China
Guangdong	China
Macau	China

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Huangpo	Guangdong	China	City	-
Meilu	Guangdong	China	City	100000 people
Maoming	Guangdong	China	City	470000 people
Gaozhou	Guangdong	China	City	160000 people
Chuncheng	Guangdong	China	City	150000 people
Jiangcheng	Guangdong	China	City	-
Encheng	Guangdong	China	City	110000 people
Xinxing	Guangdong	China	City	-
Cangcheng	Guangdong	China	City	-
Sihe	Guangdong	China	City	-
Taicheng	Guangdong	China	City	140000 people
Zhaoqing	Guangdong	China	City	360000 people
Sanbu	Guangdong	China	City	140000 people
Mingcheng	Guangdong	China	City	-
Xincheng	Guangdong	China	City	-
Jiangmen	Guangdong	China	City	530000 people
Xiaolan	Guangdong	China	City	180000 people
Sanxiang	Guangdong	China	City	-
Zhongshan	Guangdong	China	City	340000 people
Macau	Macau SAR	Macau (China)	Major city	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Zhuhai	ZUH	6				0
Shanzhou	SZO	unknown				0
Macau	MFM	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Shuidong	CNSDG	China
Yangjiang	CNYJI	China
Jiangmen	CNJMN	China

Dams

Dam Name	River	Year
Renshui	Luoguang Shui	1975
Gaozhou	Dajing He	1959
Huangsha	Yanghua Jiang	1960
Fucao	Qianpai He	1997
Donghu	Nalong He	1961
Jinjiang	Tan He	1972
Dalongdong	Dalongdong He	1959

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.