Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia
GDACS
Impact Single TC
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Australia, Indonesia
Exposed population 60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.9 m (11 Apr 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)
Landfall between
11 Apr 2021 00:00 - 12 Apr 2021 00:00

in Australia

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 204 km/h 1.9 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 130 km/h 1.9 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 157 560 thousand No people Indonesia
Green 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 185 2 million No people Indonesia
Green 3 05 Apr 2021 06:00 194 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 4 05 Apr 2021 12:00 185 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 157 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 194 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 194 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 194 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 185 1.2 million No people Australia
Green 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 194 1.3 million 40 thousand Australia
Green 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 204 1.3 million 1 thousand Australia
Green 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 204 1.3 million 3 thousand Australia
Green 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 204 1.4 million 2 thousand Australia
Green 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 185 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 204 1.4 million 1 thousand Australia

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 65 91000 people no people -10.4, 123.2
GREEN
2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 1.9 million people no people -10.5, 123
GREEN
3 05 Apr 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 280000 people no people -11.1, 121.9
GREEN
4 05 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 190000 people no people -11.2, 121.5
GREEN
5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 190000 people no people -11.2, 121.5
GREEN
6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 140000 people no people -11.3, 120.7
GREEN
7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 102 37000 people no people -11.5, 120.1
GREEN
8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -11.5, 118.9
GREEN
9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -11.9, 119.3
GREEN
10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -12.3, 119
GREEN
11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.3, 118
GREEN
12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -14.2, 116.8
GREEN
13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -14.9, 115.9
GREEN
14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -15.6, 114.6
GREEN
15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -15.9, 113.8
GREEN
15 08 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -17.1, 112.4
GREEN
15 09 Apr 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -18.3, 111.3
GREEN
15 09 Apr 2021 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -19.4, 110.3
GREEN
15 10 Apr 2021 00:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -20.5, 109.7
GREEN
15 11 Apr 2021 00:00 Category 3 204 78000 people 1000 people -23.5, 110.7
GREEN
15 12 Apr 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 100000 people no people -29.6, 117.2 Australia
GREEN
15 13 Apr 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -34.5, 126.3
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Australia

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Western Australia Australia 1.6 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Shark Bay MJK 34 Priv. Paved No 5500
Useless Loop USL unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Denham Coral Sea Islands
Useless Loop AUUSL Coral Sea Islands

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.2m in Lynton, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (264 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 29 of 11 Apr 2021 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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