Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21
in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu
GDACS
Impact Single TC
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NIRAN-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu
Exposed population 240 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 259 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (01 Mar 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 167 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 259 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 01 Mar 2021 00:00 130 220 thousand No people Australia
Green 2 01 Mar 2021 06:00 130 240 thousand No people Australia
Green 3 01 Mar 2021 12:00 130 230 thousand No people Australia
Green 4 01 Mar 2021 18:00 130 480 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia
Green 5 02 Mar 2021 00:00 130 510 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia
Green 6 02 Mar 2021 06:00 148 510 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia
Green 7 02 Mar 2021 12:00 148 510 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Norfolk Island
Green 8 02 Mar 2021 18:00 148 510 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia
Green 9 03 Mar 2021 00:00 167 510 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 01 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 65 180000 people no people -17.2, 147.2
GREEN
2 01 Mar 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 220000 people no people -16.7, 146.8
GREEN
3 01 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 6000 people no people -16.1, 146.9
GREEN
4 01 Mar 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -15.3, 147.4
GREEN
5 02 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -15.1, 147.7
GREEN
6 02 Mar 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -14.8, 148
GREEN
7 02 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -14.8, 148.2
GREEN
8 02 Mar 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -14.9, 148.6
GREEN
9 03 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -14.7, 148.3
GREEN
9 03 Mar 2021 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -14.8, 148.5
GREEN
9 04 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -15.1, 149.2
GREEN
9 04 Mar 2021 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -15.8, 151
GREEN
9 05 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 2 167 89000 people no people -16.9, 153.6
GREEN
9 06 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 270000 people no people -20.5, 160.9
GREEN
9 07 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -25.8, 171.4
GREEN
9 08 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -30.3, 178.6
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Chesterfield Iles Coral Sea Islands

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Bula, Papua New Guinea. This height is estimated for 01 Mar 2021 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.