Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21
in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu
02 Mar 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NIRAN-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2021-000069-NCL
    Exposed countries New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu
    Exposed population 240 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 259 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (01 Mar 11:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (New Caledonia)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 148 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 259 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      148 km/h Current Max.

      Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 01 Mar 2021 00:00 130 220 thousand No people Australia
        Green 2 01 Mar 2021 06:00 130 240 thousand No people Australia
        Green 3 01 Mar 2021 12:00 130 230 thousand No people Australia
        Green 4 01 Mar 2021 18:00 130 480 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia
        Green 5 02 Mar 2021 00:00 130 510 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia
        Green 6 02 Mar 2021 06:00 148 510 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia
        Green 7 02 Mar 2021 12:00 148 510 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Norfolk Island
        Green 8 02 Mar 2021 18:00 148 510 thousand No people Australia, New Caledonia

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 01 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 190000 people -17.2, 147.2
          GREEN
          		 2 01 Mar 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 230000 people -16.7, 146.8
          GREEN
          		 3 01 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 6100 people -16.1, 146.9
          GREEN
          		 4 01 Mar 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -15.3, 147.4
          GREEN
          		 5 02 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -15.1, 147.7
          GREEN
          		 6 02 Mar 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -14.8, 148
          GREEN
          		 7 02 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -14.8, 148.2
          GREEN
          		 8 02 Mar 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -14.9, 148.6
          GREEN
          		 8 03 Mar 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -15.2, 149.1
          GREEN
          		 8 03 Mar 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -15.7, 150
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Mar 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -16.3, 151.6
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Mar 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 no people 43000 people -17.4, 154.4
          GREEN
          		 8 05 Mar 2021 18:00 Category 1 148 no people 280000 people -20.8, 160.9
          GREEN
          		 8 06 Mar 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -26.5, 171.8
          GREEN
          		 8 07 Mar 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -32, -178
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Chesterfield Iles Coral Sea Islands
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.8 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Bula, Papua New Guinea. This height is estimated for 01 Mar 2021 11:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (185 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 02 Mar 2021 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Bula Papua New Guinea  0.8
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Jara Papua New Guinea  0.8
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Tamarike Indonesia  0.8
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Sarire Indonesia  0.8
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Merauke Indonesia  0.8
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Badu Australia  0.8
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Wendu Indonesia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Matara Indonesia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Urum Indonesia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Kumbe Indonesia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Anansai Indonesia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Hammond I Australia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Port Kennedy Australia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Midgeton Australia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Onggalie Indonesia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Banana Pocket Australia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Lethebrook Australia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Kotad Indonesia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Dumande Indonesia  0.7
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Alatepi Indonesia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Flaggy Rock Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Cape York Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Seisia Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 14:00 Tais Papua New Guinea  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Te Kowai Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Carmila Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Seaforth Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Cowel Creek Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Elalie Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Kalarka Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Clairview Australia  0.6
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Alakoe Indonesia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 07:00 Taffy Islet Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Moegaigare Indonesia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Okaba Indonesia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Welab Indonesia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Kobiem Indonesia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Etowri Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Nindaroo Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Glenella Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Bucasia Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Eimeo Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 North Mackay Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Mackay Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Andergrove Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Cremorne Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Blacks Beach Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Slade Point Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Amhurst Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Hay Point Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 07:00 Taroea Anim Indonesia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Rosella Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Chelona Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Bakers Creek Australia  0.5
          01 Mar 2021 07:00 Alligator Creek Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 16:00 Halifax Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Papisote Indonesia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Saint Lawrence Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Gelib Indonesia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Carstairs Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Jarvisfield Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Rita Island Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Cassady Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Wamal Indonesia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 16:00 Coolbie Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 14:00 Mutarnee Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 16:00 Moongobulla Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 16:00 Saibai Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 16:00 Hamlet of Togo Papua New Guinea  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 07:00 Birab Indonesia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Lucinda Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Alva Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 14:00 South Mission Beach Australia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 17:00 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Otsjanep Indonesia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Komoran Indonesia  0.4
          06 Mar 2021 01:00 Paagoumene New Caledonia  0.4
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Per Indonesia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Biwarlaut Indonesia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Jow Indonesia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 16:00 Rollingstone Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 16:00 Kinduro Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 07:00 Weipa Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 10:00 Mapoon Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 07:00 Weipa South Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Agats Indonesia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Lower Tully Australia  0.3
          05 Mar 2021 23:00 Pam New Caledonia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Inveroona Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Queens Beach Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Merinda Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Delta Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Bootooloo Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Bowen Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Yumbabullo Australia  0.3
          05 Mar 2021 22:00 Arama New Caledonia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Wan Indonesia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Konerau Indonesia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Selemit Indonesia  0.3
          03 Mar 2021 20:00 Cannonvale Australia  0.3
          03 Mar 2021 20:00 Airlie Australia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.3
          05 Mar 2021 21:00 Tiabet New Caledonia  0.3
          01 Mar 2021 05:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.2
          05 Mar 2021 22:00 Poum-Plage New Caledonia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Keppel Sands Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 11:00 Bellenden Ker Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Kladar Indonesia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Sabon Indonesia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Tor Indonesia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 07:00 Dolatanden Indonesia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 08:00 Innisfail Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Farnborough Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Yeppoon Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Emu Park Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Townsville Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Oonoonba Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 12:00 Kamma Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Yarrabah Aboriginal Community Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Oolbun Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Cluden Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 05:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 20:00 Amamapare Indonesia  0.2
          06 Mar 2021 08:00 Gadji New Caledonia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 13:00 Deeral Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 20:00 Ndapurutiri Indonesia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 17:00 Mabaduan Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 05:00 Southend Australia  0.2
          06 Mar 2021 08:00 Ouara New Caledonia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 20:00 Mimako Indonesia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 21:00 Keawkwa Indonesia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 21:00 Timuka Indonesia  0.2
          06 Mar 2021 09:00 Kuto New Caledonia  0.2
          06 Mar 2021 09:00 Vao New Caledonia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 03:00 Waidoro Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Beecher Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Gladstone Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Toolooa Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Parsons Point Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Benaraby Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Boyne Island Australia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 20:00 Amar Indonesia  0.2
          01 Mar 2021 20:00 Ipirawea Indonesia  0.2
          05 Mar 2021 21:00 Houone New Caledonia  0.2
          06 Mar 2021 08:00 Prony New Caledonia  0.2
          05 Mar 2021 21:00 Mouane New Caledonia  0.1
          05 Mar 2021 21:00 Ono New Caledonia  0.1
          05 Mar 2021 21:00 Wala New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 12:00 Bouloupari New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 12:00 Tomo New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 10:00 Wapan New Caledonia  0.1
          03 Mar 2021 19:00 Oropai Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Mar 2021 19:00 Tirere Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Mar 2021 19:00 Maipani Papua New Guinea  0.1
          04 Mar 2021 11:00 Pantava Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Mar 2021 09:00 Targinie Australia  0.1
          01 Mar 2021 21:00 Uta Indonesia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 07:00 Nouville New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 07:00 Noumea New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 07:00 Comm. du Mont-Dore New Caledonia  0.1
          04 Mar 2021 11:00 Rewe Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Mar 2021 04:00 Bustard Head Australia  0.1
          05 Mar 2021 21:00 Bweo New Caledonia  0.1
          05 Mar 2021 21:00 Pairome New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 00:00 Poum New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 06:00 Nde New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 10:00 Plum New Caledonia  0.1
          03 Mar 2021 19:00 Dibiri Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Mar 2021 13:00 Elim Australia  0.1
          05 Mar 2021 21:00 Panane New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 06:00 Saint-Louis New Caledonia  0.1
          01 Mar 2021 18:00 Mossman Australia  0.1
          01 Mar 2021 18:00 Miallo Australia  0.1
          01 Mar 2021 18:00 Wonga Australia  0.1
          04 Mar 2021 11:00 Madaua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          04 Mar 2021 16:00 Hekampan Papua New Guinea  0.1
          04 Mar 2021 16:00 Tagula Papua New Guinea  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 05:00 Goro New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 08:00 Paita New Caledonia  0.1
          06 Mar 2021 08:00 Dumbea New Caledonia  0.1
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Lahimoina Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Mar 2021 06:00 Leileiafa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Mar 2021 16:00 Ture Ture Papua New Guinea  0.1