Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for NIRAN-21 in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu from 01 Mar 2021 00:00 UTC to 05 Mar 2021 06:00 UTC

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GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NIRAN-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000069-NCL
Exposed countries	New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu
Exposed population	240 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (01 Mar 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	222 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	259 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

222 km/h Current Max.

Up to 170000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	01 Mar 2021 00:00	130	220 thousand	No people	Australia
2	01 Mar 2021 06:00	130	240 thousand	No people	Australia
3	01 Mar 2021 12:00	130	230 thousand	No people	Australia
4	01 Mar 2021 18:00	130	480 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
5	02 Mar 2021 00:00	130	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
6	02 Mar 2021 06:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
7	02 Mar 2021 12:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Norfolk Island
8	02 Mar 2021 18:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
9	03 Mar 2021 00:00	167	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
10	03 Mar 2021 06:00	167	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island
11	03 Mar 2021 12:00	194	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island
12	03 Mar 2021 18:00	213	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island
13	04 Mar 2021 00:00	222	510 thousand	No people	Australia, New Caledonia
14	04 Mar 2021 06:00	222	510 thousand	Few people	Australia, New Caledonia
15	04 Mar 2021 12:00	194	510 thousand	110 thousand	New Caledonia
16	04 Mar 2021 18:00	185	510 thousand	180 thousand	New Caledonia
17	05 Mar 2021 00:00	204	510 thousand	210 thousand	New Caledonia
18	05 Mar 2021 06:00	222	510 thousand	170 thousand	New Caledonia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	01 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	190000 people	-17.2, 147.2
2	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	230000 people	-16.7, 146.8
3	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	6100 people	-16.1, 146.9
4	01 Mar 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-15.3, 147.4
5	02 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-15.1, 147.7
6	02 Mar 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-14.8, 148
7	02 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-14.8, 148.2
8	02 Mar 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-14.9, 148.6
9	03 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-14.7, 148.3
10	03 Mar 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	2100 people	-14.8, 147.9
11	03 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	32000 people	-14.8, 148.3
12	03 Mar 2021 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.3, 148.2
13	04 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	78000 people	-15.2, 148.7
14	04 Mar 2021 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-15.5, 149.5
15	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-15.4, 150.4
16	04 Mar 2021 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-15.9, 152.5
17	05 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	-16.7, 154.6
18	05 Mar 2021 06:00	Category 4	213	no people	40000 people	-17.8, 156.8
18	05 Mar 2021 18:00	Category 4	222	27000 people	280000 people	-20, 161.2
18	06 Mar 2021 06:00	Category 3	204	160000 people	280000 people	-22.4, 165.9
18	06 Mar 2021 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	<1000 people	-24.7, 170.9
18	07 Mar 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-26.4, 176.1
18	08 Mar 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-28.7, -173.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
New Caledonia

Provinces

Region Province	Country
New Caledonia	New Caledonia

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Comm. du Mont-Dore		New Caledonia	City	-
Nouméa		New Caledonia	Capital	83000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mueo	PDC	unknown				0
La Tontouta	NOU	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10600
Noumea / Magenta	GEA	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4100
Ile Ouen	IOU	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Ducos	NCDUS	New Caledonia
Noumea	NCNOU	New Caledonia
Kuto		New Caledonia

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Bula, Papua New Guinea. This height is estimated for 01 Mar 2021 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (196 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 05 Mar 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.8
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.8
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Tamarike	Indonesia	0.8
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Sarire	Indonesia	0.8
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Merauke	Indonesia	0.8
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Badu	Australia	0.8
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Wendu	Indonesia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Matara	Indonesia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Urum	Indonesia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Kumbe	Indonesia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Anansai	Indonesia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Midgeton	Australia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Onggalie	Indonesia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Banana Pocket	Australia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Lethebrook	Australia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Kotad	Indonesia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Dumande	Indonesia	0.7
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Alatepi	Indonesia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Flaggy Rock	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Cape York	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Seisia	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 14:00	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Te Kowai	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Carmila	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Seaforth	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Elalie	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Kalarka	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Clairview	Australia	0.6
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Alakoe	Indonesia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 07:00	Taffy Islet	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Moegaigare	Indonesia	0.5
	06 Mar 2021 08:00	Prony	New Caledonia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Okaba	Indonesia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Welab	Indonesia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Kobiem	Indonesia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Etowri	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Nindaroo	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Glenella	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Bucasia	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Eimeo	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	North Mackay	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Mackay	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Andergrove	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Cremorne	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Blacks Beach	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Slade Point	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Amhurst	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Hay Point	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 07:00	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.5
	06 Mar 2021 09:00	Yate-Village	New Caledonia	0.5
	06 Mar 2021 09:00	Waho	New Caledonia	0.5
	06 Mar 2021 10:00	Gadji	New Caledonia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Rosella	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Chelona	Australia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Bakers Creek	Australia	0.5
	06 Mar 2021 00:00	Pam	New Caledonia	0.5
	01 Mar 2021 07:00	Alligator Creek	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 16:00	Halifax	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Papisote	Indonesia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Saint Lawrence	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Gelib	Indonesia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Carstairs	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Jarvisfield	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Rita Island	Australia	0.4
	06 Mar 2021 08:00	Ouara	New Caledonia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Cassady	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Wamal	Indonesia	0.4
	06 Mar 2021 00:00	Arama	New Caledonia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 16:00	Coolbie	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 14:00	Mutarnee	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 16:00	Moongobulla	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 16:00	Saibai	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 16:00	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 07:00	Birab	Indonesia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Lucinda	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Alva	Australia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 14:00	South Mission Beach	Australia	0.4
	05 Mar 2021 23:00	Tiabet	New Caledonia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 17:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Komoran	Indonesia	0.4
	06 Mar 2021 10:00	Kuto	New Caledonia	0.4
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Per	Indonesia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Amborip	Indonesia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Jow	Indonesia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 16:00	Rollingstone	Australia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 16:00	Kinduro	Australia	0.3
	05 Mar 2021 23:00	Poum-Plage	New Caledonia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 07:00	Weipa	Australia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 10:00	Mapoon	Australia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 07:00	Weipa South	Australia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Jofar	Indonesia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Agats	Indonesia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Lower Tully	Australia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 10:00	Vao	New Caledonia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 02:00	Paagoumene	New Caledonia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Inveroona	Australia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Queens Beach	Australia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 07:00	Noumea	New Caledonia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 08:00	Comm. du Mont-Dore	New Caledonia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 08:00	Paita	New Caledonia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 08:00	Nouville	New Caledonia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 08:00	Dumbea	New Caledonia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Merinda	Australia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Delta	Australia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Bootooloo	Australia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Bowen	Australia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Yumbabullo	Australia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 03:00	Ouaco	New Caledonia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 09:00	Wapan	New Caledonia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Wan	Indonesia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Konerau	Indonesia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Selemit	Indonesia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Pasirputih	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 09:00	Plum	New Caledonia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 04:00	Bourail	New Caledonia	0.3
	06 Mar 2021 07:00	Nde	New Caledonia	0.3
	01 Mar 2021 05:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Cannonvale	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Airlie	Australia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 04:00	Nepoui	New Caledonia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Keppel Sands	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 11:00	Bellenden Ker	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Kladar	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Sabon	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Tor	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 07:00	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 08:00	Innisfail	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Farnborough	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Yeppoon	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Emu Park	Australia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 09:00	Saint-Louis	New Caledonia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Townsville	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Oonoonba	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Kamma	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Yarrabah Aboriginal Community	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Oolbun	Australia	0.2
	05 Mar 2021 22:00	Houone	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 03:00	Tarbeville	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 05:00	Moindou	New Caledonia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Cluden	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 05:00	Kulinchin	Australia	0.2
	05 Mar 2021 22:00	Mouane	New Caledonia	0.2
	05 Mar 2021 22:00	Ono	New Caledonia	0.2
	05 Mar 2021 22:00	Wala	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 02:00	Oundjo	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 12:00	Tomo	New Caledonia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 20:00	Amamapare	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 13:00	Bouloupari	New Caledonia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 13:00	Deeral	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 20:00	Ndapurutiri	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 08:00	Goro	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 02:00	Pinjen	New Caledonia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 17:00	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 05:00	Southend	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 20:00	Mimako	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 21:00	Keawkwa	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 21:00	Timuka	Indonesia	0.2
	05 Mar 2021 22:00	Bweo	New Caledonia	0.2
	05 Mar 2021 22:00	Pairome	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 01:00	Poum	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 02:00	Voh	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 04:00	Gouaro	New Caledonia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 03:00	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Beecher	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Gladstone	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Toolooa	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Parsons Point	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Benaraby	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Boyne Island	Australia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 20:00	Amar	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Mar 2021 20:00	Ipirawea	Indonesia	0.2
	05 Mar 2021 22:00	Panane	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 04:00	Station de Beaupre	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 05:00	Nessadiou	New Caledonia	0.2
	06 Mar 2021 04:00	Station Ouaneko	New Caledonia	0.1
	01 Mar 2021 09:00	Targinie	Australia	0.1
	01 Mar 2021 21:00	Uta	Indonesia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 01:00	Hekampan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 01:00	Tagula	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	01 Mar 2021 04:00	Bustard Head	Australia	0.1
	06 Mar 2021 01:00	Kaala-Gomen	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 13:00	Elim	Australia	0.1
	06 Mar 2021 01:00	Koumac	New Caledonia	0.1
	01 Mar 2021 18:00	Mossman	Australia	0.1
	01 Mar 2021 18:00	Miallo	Australia	0.1
	01 Mar 2021 18:00	Wonga	Australia	0.1
	03 Mar 2021 13:00	Trinity Beach	Australia	0.1
	03 Mar 2021 13:00	Yorkeys Knob	Australia	0.1
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Lahimoina	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	01 Mar 2021 06:00	Leileiafa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 02:00	Pantava	Papua New Guinea	0.1