Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for ETA-20 in Nicaragua, United States, Honduras from 31 Oct 2020 21:00 UTC to 03 Nov 2020 21:00 UTC

03 Nov 2020 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ETA-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Nicaragua, United States, Honduras
Exposed population	200 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.4 m (03 Nov 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Nicaragua)
Landfall	between 03 Nov 2020 15:00 - 03 Nov 2020 21:00 in Nicaragua

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	222 km/h	1.4 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	241 km/h	1.4 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

222 km/h Current Max.

Up to 230000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Oct 2020 21:00	139	7.1 million	290 thousand	Nicaragua
2	01 Nov 2020 03:00	130	6.3 million	200 thousand	Nicaragua, Honduras
3	01 Nov 2020 09:00	148	3.4 million	100 thousand	Nicaragua
4	01 Nov 2020 15:00	130	7.5 million	130 thousand	Nicaragua
5	01 Nov 2020 21:00	176	15.1 million	170 thousand	Nicaragua
6	02 Nov 2020 03:00	185	9.4 million	130 thousand	Nicaragua
7	02 Nov 2020 09:00	176	1.5 million	150 thousand	Nicaragua
8	02 Nov 2020 15:00	222	1.3 million	130 thousand	Nicaragua
9	02 Nov 2020 21:00	241	1.8 million	140 thousand	Nicaragua
10	03 Nov 2020 03:00	259	4.8 million	200 thousand	Nicaragua
11	03 Nov 2020 09:00	204	1.4 million	120 thousand	Nicaragua
12	03 Nov 2020 15:00	185	2.2 million	110 thousand	Nicaragua
13	03 Nov 2020 21:00	222	3.3 million	230 thousand	Nicaragua, Honduras

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Oct 2020 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15, -73.2
2	01 Nov 2020 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15, -74.2
3	01 Nov 2020 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.2, -75.7
4	01 Nov 2020 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.8, -77.2
5	01 Nov 2020 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	<1000 people	14.9, -78.9
6	02 Nov 2020 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	25000 people	14.9, -80
7	02 Nov 2020 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	210000 people	14.8, -80.9
8	02 Nov 2020 15:00	Category 2	176	no people	210000 people	14.8, -81.5
9	02 Nov 2020 21:00	Category 4	213	69000 people	460000 people	14.5, -82.3
10	03 Nov 2020 03:00	Category 4	241	69000 people	660000 people	14.1, -82.7
11	03 Nov 2020 09:00	Category 4	241	81000 people	940000 people	13.8, -83.1
12	03 Nov 2020 15:00	Category 4	231	26000 people	920000 people	13.6, -83.2
13	03 Nov 2020 21:00	Category 4	222	130000 people	900000 people	13.8, -83.5	Nicaragua
13	04 Nov 2020 06:00	Category 1	139	160000 people	1.4 million people	13.8, -84.2	Nicaragua
13	04 Nov 2020 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.5 million people	14.1, -85.5	Honduras, Nicaragua
13	05 Nov 2020 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	14.7, -87.2	Honduras
13	05 Nov 2020 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	15.4, -88.5	Honduras, Guatemala
13	06 Nov 2020 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	16.3, -88.5	Belize
13	06 Nov 2020 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17, -87.7
13	07 Nov 2020 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	20, -83.5
13	08 Nov 2020 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	24, -80.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Nicaragua
Honduras

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Zelaya	Nicaragua
Jinotega	Nicaragua
Olancho	Honduras
El Paraiso	Honduras

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Puerto Cabezas	Atlántico Norte	Nicaragua	City	34000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Puerto Cabezas	PUZ	16	Civ.	Paved	No	8200
Siuna	SIU	unknown				0
Rosita	RFS	63				0
Bonanza San Pedro	BZA	unknown				0
Bonanza		182				0
Siuna		146				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Puerto Cabezas	NIPUZ	Nicaragua
Cayos Miskitos		Nicaragua

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.4m in Huahua, Nicaragua. This height is estimated for 03 Nov 2020 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (195 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 03 Nov 2020 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Nov 2020 21:00	Huahua	Nicaragua	1.4
	04 Nov 2020 00:00	Lama Laya	Nicaragua	1.3
	03 Nov 2020 21:00	Puerto Cabezas	Nicaragua	1.2
	03 Nov 2020 23:00	Karata	Nicaragua	1.1
	03 Nov 2020 21:00	Tuapi	Nicaragua	1.0
	03 Nov 2020 22:00	Coco Haulover	Nicaragua	0.9
	03 Nov 2020 21:00	Crucira	Nicaragua	0.9
	03 Nov 2020 21:00	Ninayeri	Nicaragua	0.7
	03 Nov 2020 21:00	Ledakura	Nicaragua	0.7
	03 Nov 2020 21:00	Graytown	Nicaragua	0.7
	07 Nov 2020 11:00	Ciudad del Carmen	Mexico	0.5
	03 Nov 2020 20:00	Awastara	Nicaragua	0.5
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	El Cuyo	Mexico	0.5
	07 Nov 2020 17:00	Paso Real	Mexico	0.5
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Sabancuy	Mexico	0.5
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.5
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Tunas de Zaza	Cuba	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Boca Nueva	Mexico	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Noham	Mexico	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	El Toro	Cuba	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 12:00	Almacen	Cuba	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 11:00	Majana	Cuba	0.4
	03 Nov 2020 02:00	Raya	Honduras	0.4
	03 Nov 2020 02:00	Clubki	Honduras	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Jucaro	Cuba	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	El Capulin	Nicaragua	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Venecia	Nicaragua	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Jiquilillo	Nicaragua	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Condega	Honduras	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Cedeno	Honduras	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Santo Tomas	Nicaragua	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Mangle Alto	Nicaragua	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 10:00	Barrancones	Honduras	0.4
	07 Nov 2020 12:00	Aguas Claras	Cuba	0.4
	04 Nov 2020 16:00	Uhi	Honduras	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Chabihau	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Mina de Oro	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Porfirio Diaz	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Chenkan	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Tayabacoa	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Chipepte	Mexico	0.3
	03 Nov 2020 02:00	Cabo Gracias Viejo	Nicaragua	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Guayabal	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 11:00	Guanimar	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 11:00	El Cajio	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 12:00	Surgidero de Batabano	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 12:00	Batabano	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Santa Cruz del Sur	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Macareno	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Manopla	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	El Junco	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	El Socorro	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Santa Fe	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Monte de Oro	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Chisahcab	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Hoquel	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Playa Santa Maria	Cuba	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 12:00	Punta de Fisga	Cuba	0.3
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Patlaya	Honduras	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Cerrito	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Pixoy	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Rio Lagartos	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Haltunchen	Mexico	0.3
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Champoton	Mexico	0.3
	03 Nov 2020 23:00	Irlaya	Honduras	0.2
	03 Nov 2020 01:00	Cabo Gracias a Dios	Honduras	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	El Caney	Cuba	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 09:00	Kanko	Honduras	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Telchac Puerto	Mexico	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 01:00	El Carmen	Nicaragua	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Progreso	Mexico	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 01:00	Gualora	Honduras	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Las Tumbas	Cuba	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Bolondron	Cuba	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 00:00	Wounta	Nicaragua	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Seybaplaya	Mexico	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Cancun	Mexico	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Puerto Juarez	Mexico	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Pusuaya	Honduras	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 18:00	La Graciosa	Guatemala	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 18:00	Machacal	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Chelem	Mexico	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Chacmuchuch	Mexico	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 01:00	Macho Creek	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 01:00	Puerto Barrios	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 01:00	Corozo	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 01:00	Barra del Motagua	Guatemala	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 02:00	Hualpasika	Nicaragua	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 01:00	Cambalache	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Balantanche	Mexico	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Tay Lirila	Honduras	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Livingston	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 01:00	Punta Manabique	Guatemala	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 18:00	Stann Creek Town	Belize	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 20:00	Vigia Chico	Mexico	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 20:00	Ranas	Mexico	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 18:00	Empalme	Honduras	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 18:00	Barranco Blanco	Honduras	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 18:00	Trujillo	Honduras	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Canco	Honduras	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Barra Kruta	Honduras	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Cauauira	Honduras	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Fuerte Kobbe	Panama	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 06:00	Monkey River	Belize	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 01:00	Las Pozas	Nicaragua	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Sisal	Mexico	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Vaca Monte	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Vera Cruz	Panama	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Jacksonville	Cuba	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Dapat	Honduras	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 09:00	Maya Beach	Belize	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Taboga	Panama	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 19:00	Hidalgo	Mexico	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 19:00	San Pedro	Mexico	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 19:00	Punta de Cartas	Cuba	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Chiman	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Boca de Pacora	Panama	0.1
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Barra de Caratasca	Honduras	0.1
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Kaski	Honduras	0.1
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Yahurabila	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	San Juan	Guatemala	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Cocoli	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 01:00	San Francisco del Mar	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 05:00	New Haven	Belize	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Rio Esteban	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Miranda	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Julian	Cuba	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Saboga	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Boca de Torin	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Chinina	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Rio Chico	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Chepillo	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Sabaneta	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Palo Grande	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	El Sitio	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Ciudad Radial	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Cattle Landing	Belize	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Buena Vista	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 17:00	Puerto Castilla	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Mullins	Belize	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 09:00	Freetown Area	Belize	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 17:00	Francisco I. Madero	Mexico	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	South Padre Island	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Boca Chica	United States	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Baranca	Belize	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 20:00	Donel	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Brujas	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Guera	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Pava Grande	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Casaya	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 03:00	Tahuantla	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 03:00	Puerto Isabel	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Otoque Oriente	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Rousseau	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Lacona	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Albrook	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Ciudad de Panama	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Juan Dias	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	El Porvenir	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	La Ceiba	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 16:00	Balfate	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Holly Beach	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Laguna Vista	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Laguna Heights	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Port Isabel	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	La Bajada	Cuba	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Boca del Toro	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 20:00	Iriona	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 20:00	La Puerta	Honduras	0.1
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Claura	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 15:00	Los Cayitos	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 15:00	Utila	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 18:00	El Naranjo	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Boca Vieja	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 15:00	Piedra Pintada	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 15:00	Agua Dulce	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 17:00	Santa Fe	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 17:00	Pital	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 15:00	Quebrada Grande	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 17:00	Betulia	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 17:00	Limera	Honduras	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 07:00	Alabama Wharf	Belize	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Celestum	Mexico	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Breton	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Gulf Park Estates	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Palacios	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Port O'Connor	United States	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	West Point	United States	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Claridad	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Punta Chame	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 19:00	Otoque Occidente	Panama	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 19:00	El Urraco	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 21:00	Duvic	United States	0.1