Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for ETA-20 in Nicaragua, United States, Honduras from 31 Oct 2020 21:00 UTC to 03 Nov 2020 03:00 UTC

03 Nov 2020 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ETA-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Nicaragua, United States, Honduras
Exposed population	200 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.3 m (03 Nov 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Nicaragua)
Landfall	between 03 Nov 2020 03:00 - 03 Nov 2020 12:00 in Nicaragua

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	259 km/h	1.3 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	241 km/h	1.3 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

259 km/h Current Max.

Up to 200000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Oct 2020 21:00	139	7.1 million	290 thousand	Nicaragua
2	01 Nov 2020 03:00	130	6.3 million	200 thousand	Nicaragua, Honduras
3	01 Nov 2020 09:00	148	3.4 million	100 thousand	Nicaragua
4	01 Nov 2020 15:00	130	7.5 million	130 thousand	Nicaragua
5	01 Nov 2020 21:00	176	15.1 million	170 thousand	Nicaragua
6	02 Nov 2020 03:00	185	9.4 million	130 thousand	Nicaragua
7	02 Nov 2020 09:00	176	1.5 million	150 thousand	Nicaragua
8	02 Nov 2020 15:00	222	1.3 million	130 thousand	Nicaragua
9	02 Nov 2020 21:00	241	1.8 million	140 thousand	Nicaragua
10	03 Nov 2020 03:00	259	4.8 million	200 thousand	Nicaragua

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Oct 2020 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15, -73.2
2	01 Nov 2020 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15, -74.2
3	01 Nov 2020 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.2, -75.7
4	01 Nov 2020 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.8, -77.2
5	01 Nov 2020 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	<1000 people	14.9, -78.9
6	02 Nov 2020 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	25000 people	14.9, -80
7	02 Nov 2020 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	210000 people	14.8, -80.9
8	02 Nov 2020 15:00	Category 2	176	no people	210000 people	14.8, -81.5
9	02 Nov 2020 21:00	Category 4	213	69000 people	460000 people	14.5, -82.3
10	03 Nov 2020 03:00	Category 4	241	69000 people	660000 people	14.1, -82.7
10	03 Nov 2020 12:00	Category 5	259	100000 people	1.2 million people	13.9, -83.3	Nicaragua
10	04 Nov 2020 00:00	Category 2	167	130000 people	2.5 million people	13.9, -84	Nicaragua
10	04 Nov 2020 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	4.5 million people	13.9, -85	Nicaragua
10	05 Nov 2020 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.3, -86.3	Honduras
10	05 Nov 2020 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	14.8, -87.8	Honduras
10	06 Nov 2020 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.4, -88.7	Guatemala, Honduras
10	07 Nov 2020 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.8, -87.9
10	08 Nov 2020 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	17.9, -85.3

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Nicaragua

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Zelaya	Nicaragua
Jinotega	Nicaragua

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Puerto Cabezas	Atlántico Norte	Nicaragua	City	34000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Puerto Cabezas	PUZ	16	Civ.	Paved	No	8200
Rosita	RFS	63				0
Bonanza San Pedro	BZA	unknown				0
Bonanza		182				0
Siuna		146				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Cayos Miskitos		Nicaragua
Tuapi		Nicaragua
Puerto Cabezas	NIPUZ	Nicaragua

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.3m in Lama Laya, Nicaragua. This height is estimated for 03 Nov 2020 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (222 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 03 Nov 2020 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Nov 2020 19:00	Lama Laya	Nicaragua	1.3
	03 Nov 2020 14:00	Puerto Cabezas	Nicaragua	1.2
	03 Nov 2020 14:00	Tuapi	Nicaragua	1.2
	03 Nov 2020 14:00	Crucira	Nicaragua	1.2
	03 Nov 2020 15:00	Karata	Nicaragua	1.1
	03 Nov 2020 15:00	Huahua	Nicaragua	1.1
	03 Nov 2020 12:00	Ninayeri	Nicaragua	0.9
	03 Nov 2020 12:00	Ledakura	Nicaragua	0.9
	03 Nov 2020 12:00	Graytown	Nicaragua	0.9
	03 Nov 2020 11:00	Awastara	Nicaragua	0.7
	04 Nov 2020 08:00	Uhi	Honduras	0.5
	04 Nov 2020 08:00	Patlaya	Honduras	0.4
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	El Capulin	Nicaragua	0.4
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Venecia	Nicaragua	0.4
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Jiquilillo	Nicaragua	0.4
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Condega	Honduras	0.4
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Cedeno	Honduras	0.4
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Santo Tomas	Nicaragua	0.4
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Mangle Alto	Nicaragua	0.4
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Petacaltepe	Nicaragua	0.4
	03 Nov 2020 02:00	Raya	Honduras	0.4
	03 Nov 2020 02:00	Clubki	Honduras	0.4
	03 Nov 2020 02:00	Cabo Gracias Viejo	Nicaragua	0.4
	03 Nov 2020 19:00	Coco Haulover	Nicaragua	0.3
	04 Nov 2020 18:00	Ciudad del Carmen	Mexico	0.3
	04 Nov 2020 12:00	Boca Chica	Panama	0.3
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Barrancones	Honduras	0.3
	06 Nov 2020 08:00	La Graciosa	Guatemala	0.3
	06 Nov 2020 07:00	Machacal	Guatemala	0.3
	04 Nov 2020 03:00	Irlaya	Honduras	0.3
	06 Nov 2020 09:00	Macho Creek	Guatemala	0.3
	06 Nov 2020 09:00	Puerto Barrios	Guatemala	0.3
	06 Nov 2020 09:00	Corozo	Guatemala	0.3
	06 Nov 2020 09:00	Barra del Motagua	Guatemala	0.3
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Isla Torta	Panama	0.3
	03 Nov 2020 01:00	Cabo Gracias a Dios	Honduras	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 06:00	Livingston	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 08:00	Cambalache	Guatemala	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 15:00	Boca Nueva	Mexico	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 15:00	Paso Real	Mexico	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 09:00	Kanko	Honduras	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 03:00	San Juan	Guatemala	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Fuerte Kobbe	Panama	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 05:00	Cocoli	Guatemala	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Vera Cruz	Panama	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 01:00	Baranca	Belize	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 08:00	Punta Manabique	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 08:00	San Francisco del Mar	Guatemala	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 12:00	Mullins	Belize	0.2
	01 Nov 2020 22:00	Ararca	Colombia	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 07:00	Hualpasika	Nicaragua	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Vaca Monte	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 07:00	Pusuaya	Honduras	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 07:00	Yahurabila	Honduras	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 12:00	Juan Dias	Panama	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 05:00	Cattle Landing	Belize	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 12:00	Stann Creek Town	Belize	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Tay Lirila	Honduras	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 05:00	Buena Vista	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 03:00	El Carmen	Nicaragua	0.2
	07 Nov 2020 03:00	Gualora	Honduras	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 14:00	Alabama Wharf	Belize	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Chiman	Panama	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Canco	Honduras	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Barra Kruta	Honduras	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Cauauira	Honduras	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 12:00	Puerto Real	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Saboga	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Boca de Torin	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Chinina	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Boca de Pacora	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Rio Chico	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Chepillo	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Sabaneta	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 06:00	Barra de Caratasca	Honduras	0.2
	02 Nov 2020 08:00	Dapat	Honduras	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Palo Grande	Panama	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 06:00	Wounta	Nicaragua	0.2
	06 Nov 2020 12:00	Monkey River	Belize	0.2
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Brujas	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Guera	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Pava Grande	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 06:00	Kaski	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	El Sitio	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Ciudad Radial	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Rousseau	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Lacona	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Albrook	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Taboga	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Ciudad de Panama	Panama	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 08:00	New Haven	Belize	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 12:00	Finca Bella Vista	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Freetown Area	Belize	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 12:00	Camibar	Costa Rica	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 08:00	Claura	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 09:00	Barra del Patuca	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 09:00	Baltimore	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 09:00	Rio Platano	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 09:00	Huarta	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 09:00	Tusi Cocal	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Claridad	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Otoque Occidente	Panama	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 03:00	Las Pozas	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Set Net	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 09:00	Tasbarraya	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Pedro de Cocal	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Rio Ostion Adentro	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Medina del Este	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Playa Leona	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Coco	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Cerrillos	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Pueblito de San Juan	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Santa Cruz	Panama	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 09:00	Chachaguala	Honduras	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 09:00	Omoa	Honduras	0.1
	01 Nov 2020 20:00	Piedrecitas	Colombia	0.1
	01 Nov 2020 20:00	Leticia	Colombia	0.1
	01 Nov 2020 20:00	Santa Rita	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 12:00	El Porvenir	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 12:00	La Ceiba	Honduras	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 10:00	Maya Beach	Belize	0.1
	01 Nov 2020 20:00	El Bebedero	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Punta Igauna	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Palmarejo	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Punta de Leiva	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Don Bernardo	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Casaya	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Floral	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Legua	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Martin Perez	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Palenque	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Rio Sucio Adentro	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Guinea	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Ensenada	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Puntita	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Playa Lagarto	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Otoque Oriente	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Mocobila	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Pena Blanca	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Mitra	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	El Tigre	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Boca de Chame	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Cruces	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Majagul	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	San Jose	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Isleta	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Arraijan	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Puerto Caimito	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Vista Alegre	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	San Vicente de Bique	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Playa	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Boca Toro	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 03:00	Guanimar	Cuba	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 03:00	El Cajio	Cuba	0.1
	01 Nov 2020 19:00	El Guere	Venezuela	0.1
	01 Nov 2020 19:00	Cabimas	Venezuela	0.1
	01 Nov 2020 19:00	El Mene	Venezuela	0.1
	01 Nov 2020 19:00	Las Mucuras	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Buena Vista	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Balfate	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Boca del Toro	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	El Naranjo	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Boca Vieja	Honduras	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 02:00	Conchaguita	El Salvador	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	El Morro Negro	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Quebrada Piedra	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	El Peru	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Tabasara	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Pajaron	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	El Torno	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Rincon	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Espala Abajo	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Estancia	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Vaca	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Rosario	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Rosarito	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 15:00	Punta de Fisga	Cuba	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 15:00	Aguas Claras	Cuba	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Punto Miranda	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	El Aceituno	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Altagracia	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Las Playitas	Venezuela	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	El Grillo	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Esmeralda	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Concholon	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 06:00	Tahuantla	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 06:00	Puerto Isabel	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Punta Chame	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Charco Azul	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Hato Corrales	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Horconcitos	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Las Huacas	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Boca del Monte	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Canafistulo	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Albina	Panama	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 11:00	Puerto Cortes	Honduras	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 11:00	El Porvenir	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Punta Alegre	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Sebolleta	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Mogocenega	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Perrecenega	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Bajo Grande	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	El Encanto	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Palma	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Bavo Grande	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Josefa	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Cantina	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Rio Congo	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 10:00	Rio Esteban	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Piedra Pintada	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Agua Dulce	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Limera	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Santa Rosa Aguan	Honduras	0.1
	07 Nov 2020 03:00	Hacienda La Chepona	El Salvador	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 11:00	Cuero	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Puerto Castilla	Honduras	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 14:00	Empalme	Honduras	0.1
	06 Nov 2020 02:00	Guerrero	El Salvador	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Pixvae	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	La Mona	Panama	0.1
	04 Nov 2020 13:00	Los Calabazos	Panama	0.1