Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for HIKAA-19 in Oman, Saudi Arabia from 22 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC to 24 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC

24 Sep 2019 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS

Impact Single TC

HWRF

ECMWF

GFS

Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HIKAA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Oman, Saudi Arabia
Exposed population	2 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (24 Sep 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS Current	111 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
GDACS Overall	157 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 42000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 18:00	74	30 thousand	No people	Oman, Saudi Arabia
2	23 Sep 2019 00:00	83	40 thousand	No people	Oman, Saudi Arabia
3	23 Sep 2019 06:00	120	40 thousand	No people	Oman
4	23 Sep 2019 12:00	120	40 thousand	Few people	Oman
5	23 Sep 2019 18:00	130	30 thousand	Few people	Oman
6	24 Sep 2019 00:00	157	40 thousand	3 thousand	Oman
7	24 Sep 2019 06:00	148	30 thousand	1 thousand	Oman
8	24 Sep 2019 12:00	139	40 thousand	1 thousand	Oman
9	24 Sep 2019 18:00	111	40 thousand	2 thousand	Oman

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	20.5, 67.2
2	23 Sep 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	20.3, 65.9
3	23 Sep 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	20.2, 64.6
4	23 Sep 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	20.2, 63.5
5	23 Sep 2019 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	20.2, 62.3
6	24 Sep 2019 00:00	Category 2	157	18000 people	<1000 people	20.1, 60.9	Oman
7	24 Sep 2019 06:00	Category 1	148	23000 people	1400 people	20, 59.5	Oman
8	24 Sep 2019 12:00	Category 1	139	27000 people	1100 people	19.9, 58.4	Oman
9	24 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	111	24000 people	no people	19.7, 57	Oman
9	25 Sep 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	19.5, 54.7	Oman

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Oman
Saudi Arabia

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population
Al Wusta	Oman	-
Ash Sharqiyah	Oman	-
Zufar	Oman	-
Ash Sharqiyah	Saudi Arabia	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Haima		122	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5400
Masirah	MSH	19	Mil.	Paved	Yes	10000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Al Khaluf		Oman
Duwwah		Oman

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in As Sirab, Oman. This height is estimated for 24 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (21 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 24 Sep 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Sep 2019 15:00	As Sirab	Oman	0.7
	24 Sep 2019 15:00	Nafun	Oman	0.6
	24 Sep 2019 17:00	Filim	Oman	0.6
	24 Sep 2019 16:00	Al Khaluf	Oman	0.6
	24 Sep 2019 16:00	Duqm	Oman	0.4
	24 Sep 2019 16:00	Al Kalban	Oman	0.3
	24 Sep 2019 16:00	Sur Masirah	Oman	0.2
	24 Sep 2019 16:00	Mursays	Oman	0.2
	24 Sep 2019 10:00	Dawwah	Oman	0.2
	24 Sep 2019 10:00	Dafiyat	Oman	0.2
	24 Sep 2019 16:00	Shuwayr	Oman	0.2
	24 Sep 2019 08:00	Shiinzi	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 10:00	'Urf	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 09:00	Dhuwwah	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 17:00	Maghilah	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 10:00	Hiql	Oman	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 06:00	Asarsa	India	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 06:00	Tankari	India	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 06:00	Kambhat	India	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 06:00	Kavi	India	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 06:00	Sarod	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.