Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PENNY-18
in Australia, Papua New Guinea

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PENNY-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Australia, Papua New Guinea
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 120 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (01 Jan 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Papua New Guinea)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 83 km/h 1.6 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 120 km/h 1.6 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

83 km/h Current

Up to 13000 people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 102 330 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
Green 2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 102 250 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
Green 3 31 Dec 2018 12:00 102 320 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
Green 4 31 Dec 2018 18:00 111 440 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
Green 5 01 Jan 2019 00:00 111 70 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
Green 6 01 Jan 2019 06:00 120 650 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
Green 7 01 Jan 2019 12:00 120 180 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
Green 8 01 Jan 2019 18:00 120 140 thousand No people Australia
Green 9 02 Jan 2019 00:00 120 10 thousand No people Australia
Green 10 02 Jan 2019 06:00 111 30 thousand No people Australia
Green 11 02 Jan 2019 12:00 111 460 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
Green 12 02 Jan 2019 18:00 111 330 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia
Green 13 03 Jan 2019 00:00 102 380 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia
Green 14 03 Jan 2019 06:00 102 10 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia
Green 15 03 Jan 2019 12:00 111 10 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia
Green 16 03 Jan 2019 18:00 111 10 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia
Green 17 04 Jan 2019 00:00 111 10 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia
Green 18 04 Jan 2019 06:00 93 10 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia
Green 19 04 Jan 2019 12:00 83 10 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia
Green 20 04 Jan 2019 18:00 93 10 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia
Green 21 05 Jan 2019 00:00 83 10 thousand No people Papua New Guinea, Australia

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 18000 people no people -12.8, 139.6 Australia
GREEN
2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 7400 people no people -12.5, 139.3 Australia
GREEN
3 31 Dec 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 17000 people no people -12.5, 140.2 Australia
GREEN
4 31 Dec 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 19000 people no people -12.7, 140.6 Australia
GREEN
5 01 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 18000 people no people -12.6, 141.2 Australia
GREEN
6 01 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 14000 people no people -12.6, 142.3 Australia
GREEN
7 01 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 15000 people no people -12.7, 143 Australia
GREEN
8 01 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 56 12000 people no people -12.9, 143.5 Australia
GREEN
9 02 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 1200 people no people -12.9, 144.3 Australia
GREEN
10 02 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 <1000 people no people -13, 146 Australia
GREEN
11 02 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 18000 people no people -13.2, 147.8 Papua New Guinea
GREEN
12 02 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 93 10000 people no people -13.6, 150.2 Papua New Guinea
GREEN
13 03 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -14.3, 152.3
GREEN
14 03 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15, 153.7
GREEN
15 03 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -15.4, 154.6
GREEN
16 03 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -15.6, 155.9
GREEN
17 04 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -16, 155.9
GREEN
18 04 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -16.2, 156.1
GREEN
19 04 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -16.1, 155.9
GREEN
20 04 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -15.9, 155.9
GREEN
21 05 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.8, 155.6
GREEN
21 05 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.8, 155.2
GREEN
21 06 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 154.4
GREEN
21 06 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -16.3, 153.5
GREEN
21 07 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16.5, 152.4
GREEN
21 08 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.7, 150.2
GREEN
21 09 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -16.1, 148.5
GREEN
21 10 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -15.4, 146.6
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Papua New Guinea
Australia

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Milne Bay Papua New Guinea 160000 people
Queensland Australia 3.1 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Weipa Queensland Australia City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Lizard Island LZR 21 0
Hope Vale HPE unknown 0
Musgrave MVU unknown 0
Silver Plains SSP unknown 0
Coen CUQ 162 Civ. Unpaved Yes 3900
Lockhart River IRG 23 Civ. Paved Yes 4300
Batavia Downs BVW unknown 0
Rokeby RKY unknown 0
Moreton MET unknown 0
Merluna MLV unknown 0
Scherger 44 Mil. Paved No 10000
Pormpuraaw 3 Civ. Paved No 4400
Agnew AGW unknown 0
Weipa WEI 19 Civ. Paved Yes 5300
Aurukun AUU 9 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
Bamaga ABM 15 Civ. Paved Yes 5200
Beagle Bay BEE unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Cape Flattery AUCQP Coral Sea Islands
Port Stewart Coral Sea Islands
Weipa AUWEI Coral Sea Islands

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.6m in Sarire, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 01 Jan 2019 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (324 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 32 of 07 Jan 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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