Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUBAN-18 in Yemen from 08 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC to 10 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC

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GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUBAN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Yemen
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (13 Oct 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Yemen)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 37000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	120	350 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	130	90 thousand	20 thousand	Yemen
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	139	150 thousand	No people	Yemen
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	120	120 thousand	No people	Yemen
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	130	620 thousand	No people	Yemen, Somalia
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	130	1.3 million	No people	Yemen
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	120	1.5 million	No people	Yemen
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	139	720 thousand	210 thousand	Yemen
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	139	1.5 million	310 thousand	Yemen
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	139	1.5 million	40 thousand	Yemen
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	139	950 thousand	40 thousand	Yemen

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.4, 62.3
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.3, 61.6
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.2, 61.6
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.5, 61.2
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.9, 60.6
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.2, 60.1
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.4, 59.7
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.1, 59.9
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.1, 59.1
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.2, 58.9
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.4, 58.5
11	11 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.6, 58
11	11 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.8, 57.5
11	12 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	15, 57
11	12 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	330000 people	15.2, 56.2	Yemen
11	13 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	120	37000 people	600000 people	15.5, 53.7	Yemen
11	14 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	630000 people	15.6, 50.5	Yemen
11	15 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.8, 49	Yemen

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Yemen

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Al Mahrah	Yemen
Hadhramaut	Yemen

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Qishn	IHN	30	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Ras Fartak		Yemen
Nishtun	YENIS	Yemen

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Nishtun, Yemen. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2018 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (25 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 10 Oct 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Oct 2018 23:00	Nishtun	Yemen	0.4
	14 Oct 2018 04:00	Qishn	Yemen	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 00:00	Haswayn	Yemen	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 01:00	Saqr	Yemen	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 23:00	Tabut	Yemen	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 23:00	Hayrut	Yemen	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Itab	Yemen	0.2
	08 Oct 2018 16:00	Asarsa	India	0.1
	08 Oct 2018 16:00	Tankari	India	0.1
	08 Oct 2018 16:00	Kambhat	India	0.1
	08 Oct 2018 16:00	Kavi	India	0.1
	08 Oct 2018 16:00	Sarod	India	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 02:00	Al Faydami	Yemen	0.1
	08 Oct 2018 16:00	Muler	India	0.1
	08 Oct 2018 16:00	Wadgam	India	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 23:00	Abd Allah Gharib	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 01:00	Jarub	Yemen	0.1
	11 Oct 2018 03:00	Sawqirah	Oman	0.1
	08 Oct 2018 15:00	Harinagar	India	0.1
	11 Oct 2018 01:00	Duqm	Oman	0.1
	11 Oct 2018 05:00	Lakabi	Oman	0.1
	11 Oct 2018 03:00	Qaysad	Oman	0.1
	08 Oct 2018 14:00	Ghogha	India	0.1
	08 Oct 2018 14:00	Dahej	India	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 07:00	Al Qumrah	Yemen	0.1