Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (12 Oct 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 102 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

102 km/h Current

Up to 5.7 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 139 6.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 139 8.7 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 130 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 111 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 111 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 44 10 Oct 2018 09:00 111 6.4 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 45 10 Oct 2018 15:00 102 5.8 million No people Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.4, -102.1
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.1, -102.8
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.3, -103.3
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -104.3
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -105.4
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.5, -106.3
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -107.3
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.6
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -109.5
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -111
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.9, -112
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -113.2
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -114
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.2, -115.1
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.8, -115.8
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.3, -116.7
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.9, -117.3
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13.3, -117.9
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, -118.3
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, -118.8
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15, -119.3
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.5, -119.9
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.9, -120.5
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16, -121.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 15.9, -121.8
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.7, -122.3
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.3, -122.7
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.9, -123.5
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.7, -124
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.7
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.4
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.6, -126.1
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.8
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.7, -127.5
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.9, -127.9
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.3, -128.6
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -128.5
GREEN
39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16, -128.6
GREEN
40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.3, -127.9
GREEN
41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.6, -127.4
GREEN
42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.9, -126.5
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -125.6
GREEN
44 10 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -124.9
GREEN
45 10 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18.4, -123.5
GREEN
45 11 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 19.7, -121.6
GREEN
45 11 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 22, -119
GREEN
45 12 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 370000 people no people 24.5, -116.2 Mexico
GREEN
45 12 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 5.7 million people no people 27, -113 Mexico
GREEN
45 13 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 31.5, -104.5 United States
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico
United States

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Mexico 1.8 million people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
New Mexico United States 1.5 million people
Texas United States 17.6 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Isla Natividad Baja California Sur Mexico City - 1351 km
Villa Constitución Baja California Sur Mexico City - 1428 km
San Juanico Baja California Sur Mexico City - 1429 km
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people 1665 km
Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people 1675 km
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people 1692 km
Huatabampo Sonora Mexico City 30000 people 1706 km
Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City - 1715 km
Navojoa Sonora Mexico City 100000 people 1731 km
Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Major city 580000 people 1741 km
Rosario Sonora Mexico City - 1783 km
Buenaventura Chihuahua Mexico City - 2060 km
Nuevo Casas Grandes Chihuahua Mexico City 50000 people 2062 km
Ciudad Juárez Chihuahua Mexico Major city 790000 people 2260 km
El Paso Texas United States Major city 560000 people 2265 km
Pecos Texas United States City 9500 people 2475 km
Carlsbad New Mexico United States City 25000 people 2476 km
Artesia New Mexico United States City 10000 people 2489 km
Kermit Texas United States City 5700 people 2533 km
Monahans Texas United States City 6800 people 2534 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Bahia Tortugas 40 0 1354 km
Isla Cedros 30 0 1364 km
Abreojos AJS unknown 0 1374 km
Villa Constitucion VIB 43 0 1426 km
Arroyo Capo 20 0 1432 km
Guerrero Negro 18 0 1434 km
Guerrero Negro GUB 18 0 1440 km
San Ignacio 1 SGM 244 0 1463 km
Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200 1508 km
Mulege MUG 61 0 1509 km
Punta Chivato Bulge 2 0 1515 km
Santa Rosalia SRL unknown 0 1518 km
Punta Chivato PCV unknown 0 1522 km
Bahia de los Angeles North BHL 5 0 1548 km
Bahia Kino North 6 0 1649 km
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700 1666 km
Villa Juarez South 46 0 1698 km
Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 1718 km
Navojoa New 38 0 1730 km
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International HMO 192 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 1734 km
Navojoa 60 0 1734 km
Alamos XAL 400 0 1772 km
Cumpas New 812 0 1896 km
Rancho la Milpita 1435 0 1937 km
Nuevo Casas Grande West 1463 0 2059 km
Nuevo Casas Grandes NCG 1478 Civ. Unpaved No 4900 2064 km
Columbus 1218 0 2178 km
Santa Teresa Airport 1253 0 2252 km
Ciudad Juarez International CJS 1171 Civ. Paved Yes 8800 2257 km
Cielo Dorado Estates 1143 0 2259 km
Sierra Medical Center 1190 0 2262 km
Thomason General Hospital 1128 0 2265 km
Stahmann Farms 1228 0 2268 km
Fabens 1121 0 2271 km
Bear 1158 0 2272 km
El Paso International ELP 1206 Civ. Paved Yes 11000 2272 km
Biggs AAF BIF 1204 Mil. Paved Yes 13500 2275 km
West Texas 1221 0 2277 km
Fort Hancock 1072 0 2279 km
Rhoads 1524 0 2282 km
Hot Springs 936 0 2300 km
Sierra Blanca 1375 0 2310 km
Cibolo Creek Ranch 1341 0 2327 km
Lwb Ranch Cornudas 1311 0 2342 km
Mayfield Ranch 1399 0 2347 km
Culberson County VHN 1205 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 2350 km
Big Tank Ranch 1463 0 2353 km
Clm Ranch 1167 0 2363 km
Figure 2 Ranch 1128 0 2369 km
Alta Vista Ranch 1433 0 2372 km
Dell City Municipal 1128 0 2373 km
Marfa Municipal MRF 1478 Civ. Paved Yes 6200 2374 km
Blue Mountain 1524 0 2389 km
Rancho del Cielo 1344 0 2394 km
Alpine Municipal ALE 1376 0 2403 km
Triangle Ranch Private 1341 0 2404 km
Seven Springs 1067 0 2424 km
Carlsbad Caverns 1101 0 2451 km
Carlsbad CNM 1004 Civ. Paved Yes 7800 2469 km
Pecos Municipal PEQ 798 Civ. Paved Yes 6200 2472 km
Seven Rivers 1030 0 2473 km
Artesia Municipal ATS 1081 Civ. Paved Yes 6300 2486 km
2 X 4 Ranch 1024 0 2488 km
Pay Jay Nr 2 1032 0 2490 km
Winkler County INK 859 Civ. Paved Yes 4500 2520 km
Roy Hurd Memorial MIF 796 0 2533 km
Lea Co Jal 949 0 2544 km
Lea Co Eunice 1088 0 2557 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Puerto San Bartolome Mexico 1354 km
Puerto Madalena Mexico 1363 km
Morro Redondo MXMRE Mexico 1366 km
San Carlos MXSCR Mexico 1374 km
Prt Venustiano Carranza Mexico 1430 km
Muleje Mexico 1509 km
Loreto Mexico 1510 km
Santa Rosalia MXSRL Mexico 1519 km
San Marcos Island MXSMI Mexico 1523 km
Bahia Salinas Mexico 1527 km
Tiburon Island Mexico 1629 km
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico 1666 km
Empalme Mexico 1672 km
Yavaros Mexico 1706 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Comaquito Babasac 1977 1700 km
Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970 1738 km
Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952 1739 km
Abelardo Sonora 1948 1742 km
El Molini Sonora 1991 1766 km
Mocuzari Adolfo Ruiz Cortines Rio Mayo 1955 1769 km
Novillo Plutarco Elias Calles El Yaqui 1964 1833 km
La Angostura Bavispe 1942 1953 km
Chihuahua Chuviscar 1960 2094 km
Hudspeth Regulating Reservoir Diablo Reservoir Levee Offstream Rio Grande 1993 2280 km
Red Bluff Dam Pecos River 1936 2470 km
Brantley Brantley Pecos River 1989 2473 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Boca del Melgoita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (78 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 53 of 12 Oct 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.6
12 Oct 2018 11:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 11:30 La Playa Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Liliba Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 16:30 San Jose Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Empalme Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 10:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 La Boca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 09:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 08:30 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1