Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for SERGIO-18 in Mexico from 29 Sep 2018 15:30 UTC to 10 Oct 2018 09:00 UTC

10 Oct 2018 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS

Impact Single TC

HWRF

ECMWF

GFS

Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	222 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (12 Oct 20:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS Current	111 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
GDACS Overall	222 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

111 km/h Current

Up to 6.4 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat. 1 or higher	Countries
1	29 Sep 2018 15:30	176	No people	No people
2	29 Sep 2018 21:00	176	No people	No people
3	30 Sep 2018 03:00	185	No people	No people
4	30 Sep 2018 09:00	185	No people	No people
5	30 Sep 2018 15:00	194	No people	No people
6	30 Sep 2018 21:00	194	No people	No people
7	01 Oct 2018 03:00	194	No people	No people
8	01 Oct 2018 09:00	185	No people	No people
9	01 Oct 2018 15:00	185	No people	No people
10	01 Oct 2018 21:00	185	No people	No people
11	02 Oct 2018 03:00	185	No people	No people
12	02 Oct 2018 09:00	185	No people	No people
13	02 Oct 2018 15:00	194	No people	No people
14	02 Oct 2018 21:00	222	No people	No people
15	03 Oct 2018 03:00	222	No people	No people
16	03 Oct 2018 09:00	213	No people	No people
17	03 Oct 2018 15:00	222	No people	No people
18	03 Oct 2018 21:00	222	No people	No people
19	04 Oct 2018 03:00	222	No people	No people
20	04 Oct 2018 09:00	222	No people	No people
21	04 Oct 2018 15:00	222	No people	No people
22	04 Oct 2018 21:00	213	No people	No people
23	05 Oct 2018 03:00	204	No people	No people
24	05 Oct 2018 09:00	194	No people	No people
25	05 Oct 2018 15:00	185	No people	No people
26	05 Oct 2018 21:00	194	No people	No people
27	06 Oct 2018 03:00	204	No people	No people
28	06 Oct 2018 09:00	204	No people	No people
29	06 Oct 2018 15:00	204	No people	No people
30	06 Oct 2018 21:00	204	No people	No people
31	07 Oct 2018 03:00	194	No people	No people
32	07 Oct 2018 09:00	185	40 thousand	No people	Mexico
33	07 Oct 2018 15:00	167	20 thousand	No people	Mexico
34	07 Oct 2018 21:00	157	140 thousand	No people	Mexico
35	08 Oct 2018 03:00	148	1.6 million	No people	Mexico, United States
36	08 Oct 2018 09:00	148	4.3 million	No people	Mexico, United States
37	08 Oct 2018 15:00	148	4.6 million	No people	Mexico, United States
38	08 Oct 2018 21:00	139	5.5 million	No people	Mexico, United States
39	09 Oct 2018 03:00	139	6.9 million	No people	Mexico, United States
40	09 Oct 2018 09:00	139	8.7 million	No people	Mexico, United States
41	09 Oct 2018 15:00	130	4.9 million	No people	Mexico, United States
42	09 Oct 2018 21:00	111	4.6 million	No people	Mexico, United States
43	10 Oct 2018 03:00	111	4.9 million	No people	Mexico, United States
44	10 Oct 2018 09:00	111	6.4 million	No people	Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	29 Sep 2018 15:30	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.4, -102.1
2	29 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.1, -102.8
3	30 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	12.3, -103.3
4	30 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12, -104.3
5	30 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.1, -105.4
6	30 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	11.5, -106.3
7	01 Oct 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	11.6, -107.3
8	01 Oct 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.5, -108.6
9	01 Oct 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.5, -109.5
10	01 Oct 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.3, -111
11	02 Oct 2018 03:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	10.9, -112
12	02 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	10.7, -113.2
13	02 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	10.6, -114
14	02 Oct 2018 21:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	11.2, -115.1
15	03 Oct 2018 03:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	11.8, -115.8
16	03 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	12.3, -116.7
17	03 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	12.9, -117.3
18	03 Oct 2018 21:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	13.3, -117.9
19	04 Oct 2018 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	13.8, -118.3
20	04 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	14.4, -118.8
21	04 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	15, -119.3
22	04 Oct 2018 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	15.5, -119.9
23	05 Oct 2018 03:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	15.9, -120.5
24	05 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	16, -121.2
25	05 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	15.9, -121.8
26	05 Oct 2018 21:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	15.7, -122.3
27	06 Oct 2018 03:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	15.3, -122.7
28	06 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	14.9, -123.5
29	06 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	14.7, -124
30	06 Oct 2018 21:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	14.6, -124.7
31	07 Oct 2018 03:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	14.5, -125.4
32	07 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	14.6, -126.1
33	07 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	14.5, -126.8
34	07 Oct 2018 21:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	14.7, -127.5
35	08 Oct 2018 03:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	14.9, -127.9
36	08 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	15.2, -128.1
37	08 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	15.3, -128.6
38	08 Oct 2018 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.7, -128.5
39	09 Oct 2018 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	16, -128.6
40	09 Oct 2018 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	16.3, -127.9
41	09 Oct 2018 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	16.6, -127.4
42	09 Oct 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	16.9, -126.5
43	10 Oct 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17.5, -125.6
44	10 Oct 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17.5, -124.9
44	10 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	18.8, -122.9
44	11 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	20.6, -120.4
44	11 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	17000 people	no people	23, -117.7	Mexico
44	12 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	2.5 million people	no people	25.4, -114.7	Mexico
44	13 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	65	4.1 million people	no people	30.3, -107.3	Mexico
44	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	34.5, -97.8	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico
United States

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population
Baja California	Mexico	1.8 million people
Baja California Sur	Mexico	340000 people
Sonora	Mexico	1.9 million people
Chihuahua	Mexico	2.6 million people
New Mexico	United States	1.5 million people
Texas	United States	17.6 million people
Oklahoma	United States	3.2 million people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Isla Natividad	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
Villa Constitución	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
San Juanico	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
Guaymas	Sonora	Mexico	City	100000 people
Empalme	Sonora	Mexico	City	38000 people
Yaqui	Sonora	Mexico	City	14000 people
Huatabampo	Sonora	Mexico	City	30000 people
Ciudad Obregón	Sonora	Mexico	City	-
Navojoa	Sonora	Mexico	City	100000 people
Hermosillo	Sonora	Mexico	Major city	580000 people
Rosario	Sonora	Mexico	City	-
Buenaventura	Chihuahua	Mexico	City	-
Nuevo Casas Grandes	Chihuahua	Mexico	City	50000 people
Ciudad Juárez	Chihuahua	Mexico	Major city	790000 people
El Paso	Texas	United States	Major city	560000 people
Carlsbad	New Mexico	United States	City	25000 people
Pecos	Texas	United States	City	9500 people
Artesia	New Mexico	United States	City	10000 people
Kermit	Texas	United States	City	5700 people
Monahans	Texas	United States	City	6800 people
Hobbs	New Mexico	United States	City	28000 people
Odessa	Texas	United States	City	90000 people
Midland	Texas	United States	City	94000 people
Lamesa	Texas	United States	City	9900 people
Brownfield	Texas	United States	City	9400 people
Levelland	Texas	United States	City	12000 people
Lubbock	Texas	United States	City	190000 people
Slaton	Texas	United States	City	6100 people
Snyder	Texas	United States	City	10000 people
Sweetwater	Texas	United States	City	11000 people
Childress	Texas	United States	City	6700 people
Vernon	Texas	United States	City	11000 people
Altus	Oklahoma	United States	City	21000 people
Wichita Falls	Texas	United States	City	100000 people
Burkburnett	Texas	United States	City	10000 people
Lawton	Oklahoma	United States	City	92000 people
Duncan	Oklahoma	United States	City	22000 people
Anadarko	Oklahoma	United States	City	6600 people
Ardmore	Oklahoma	United States	City	23000 people
Pauls Valley	Oklahoma	United States	City	6200 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Bahia Tortugas		40				0
Abreojos	AJS	unknown				0
Villa Constitucion	VIB	43				0
Guerrero Negro		18				0
Arroyo Capo		20				0
Guerrero Negro	GUB	18				0
San Ignacio 1	SGM	244				0
Loreto	LTO	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Mulege	MUG	61				0
Punta Chivato Bulge		2				0
Santa Rosalia	SRL	unknown				0
Punta Chivato	PCV	unknown				0
Bahia Kino North		6				0
General Jose Maria Yanez International	GYM	27	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7700
Villa Juarez South		46				0
Ciudad Obregon	CEN	74	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
Navojoa New		38				0
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International	HMO	192	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
Navojoa		60				0
Alamos	XAL	400				0
Cumpas New		812				0
Rancho la Milpita		1435				0
Nuevo Casas Grande West		1463				0
Nuevo Casas Grandes	NCG	1478	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4900
Santa Teresa Airport		1253				0
Ciudad Juarez International	CJS	1171	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8800
Cielo Dorado Estates		1143				0
Sierra Medical Center		1190				0
Thomason General Hospital		1128				0
Fabens		1121				0
Bear		1158				0
El Paso International	ELP	1206	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11000
Biggs AAF	BIF	1204	Mil.	Paved	Yes	13500
West Texas		1221				0
Fort Hancock		1072				0
Rhoads		1524				0
Sierra Blanca		1375				0
Lwb Ranch Cornudas		1311				0
Mayfield Ranch		1399				0
Culberson County	VHN	1205	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Big Tank Ranch		1463				0
Clm Ranch		1167				0
Figure 2 Ranch		1128				0
Dell City Municipal		1128				0
Blue Mountain		1524				0
Rancho del Cielo		1344				0
Triangle Ranch Private		1341				0
Seven Springs		1067				0
Carlsbad Caverns		1101				0
Carlsbad	CNM	1004	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7800
Seven Rivers		1030				0
Pecos Municipal	PEQ	798	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6200
2 X 4 Ranch		1024				0
Pay Jay Nr 2		1032				0
Winkler County	INK	859	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4500
Roy Hurd Memorial	MIF	796				0
Lea Co Jal		949				0
Lea Co Eunice		1088				0
J-Bar Ranch		813				0
Crane County	CCG	778				0
Lea Co Hobbs	HOB	1115	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7300
Lea County Lovington		1211				0
Industrial Airpark	HBB	1130				0
Odessa Schlemeyer Field		915	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5700
Hamilton Aircraft, Inc		1073				0
Lea County (Tatum)		1215				0
Bates Field		860				0
Two Leggs		1105				0
Andrews County		969				0
Odessa Regional	MAF	875	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9500
Seminole Spraying Service		1028				0
Gaines County		1010				0
Skywest Inc.		853				0
Denver City		1090				0
Bta		858				0
Midland Airpark	MDD	854	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5000
Mabee Ranch		872				0
Yoakum County		1121				0
Ryan Aerodrome		835				0
Seagraves		1026				0
Stanton Municipal		832				0
Thorp		884				0
Edwards Lucian Wells Ranch		764				0
Brownfield Regional Medical Center		1012				0
Terry Co Af Aux		1053				0
Lamesa Municipal		914				0
Terry County		995				0
Big Spring Mcmahon Wrinkle		784				0
Coleman Cattle Company Nr 1		860				0
Levelland Municipal		1071				0
L P Askew Farms		948				0
Mc Nabb Farm		1010				0
T Bar		953				0
New Home		986				0
Reese AFB	REE	1017				0
St Mary of The Plains Hospital		1000				0
Town And Country Airpark		975				0
University Medical Center		985				0
Department of Public Safety		979				0
Kitten Farm Private		930				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Puerto San Bartolome		Mexico
Puerto Madalena		Mexico
San Carlos	MXSCR	Mexico
Prt Venustiano Carranza		Mexico
Muleje		Mexico
Loreto		Mexico
Santa Rosalia	MXSRL	Mexico
San Marcos Island	MXSMI	Mexico
Bahia Salinas		Mexico
Tiburon Island		Mexico
Guaymas	MXGYM	Mexico
Empalme		Mexico
Yavaros		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Comaquito	Babasac	1977
Ignacio L. Alatorre	Punta de Agua	Matape	1970
Alvaro Obregon	Alvaro Obregon	Yaqui	1952
	Abelardo	Sonora	1948
	El Molini	Sonora	1991
Mocuzari	Adolfo Ruiz Cortines	Rio Mayo	1955
Novillo	Plutarco Elias Calles	El Yaqui	1964
	La Angostura	Bavispe	1942
Hudspeth Regulating Reservoir	Diablo Reservoir Levee	Offstream Rio Grande	1993
	Red Bluff Dam	Pecos River	1936
Brantley	Brantley	Pecos River	1989
	Natural Dam	Sulphur Springs Draw	1989
	Red Draw Dam	Red Draw	1985
	Mitchell County Reservoir Dam	Trib. Beals Creek	1991
Lake J.B. Thomas	Lake J.B. Thomas Dam	Colorado River	1952
Lake Colorado	Lake Colorado City Dam	Morgan Creek	1949
	Champion Creek Dam	Champion Creek	1959
Lake Alan Henry	John T. Montford Dam	Double Mountain Fork Brazos River	1994
	White River Dam	White River	1963
	Lake Stamford Dam	Paint Creek	1953
Truscott Brine Lake	Truscott Brine Dam	South Fork of Wichita River	1983
	Millers Creek Dam	Millers Creek	1974
	Lake Kemp Dam	Big Wichita River	1923
	Santa Rosa Dam	Beaver Creek	1929
	Lake Diversion Dam	Wichita River	1924
	Lake Electra Dam	Camp Creek	1950
	Lake Kickapoo Dam	North Fork of Little Wichita River	1945
	North Fork Buffalo Creek Dam	North Fork of Buffalo Creek	1964
Lake Frederick	Deep Red Run	Deep Red Creek	1974
	Lake Arrowhead Dam	Little Wichita River	1966
Tom Steed	Mountain Park East Dike	Otter Creek	1979
	Lawtonka Lake	Medicine Creek	1954
Waurika Lake	Waurika Lake	Beaver Creek	1977
	Ellsworth	East Cache Creek	1961
	Farmers Creek Dam	Farmers Creek	1960
Lake Humphreys	Wildhorse Creek Site 22	Wildhorse Creek	1958
Chickasha Lake	Spring Creek Site 1	Spring Creek	1958
Lake Fuqua	Wildhorse Creek Site 39	Black Bear Creek	1962
Lake of the Arbuckles	Arbuckle Dike 1	Rock Creek	1966
	Pauls Valley	Washington Creek	1954
R.C. Longmire	Cherokee Sandy Site 17	Cherokee Sandy Creek	1989

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Liliba, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 20:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (48 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 44 of 10 Oct 2018 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	12 Oct 2018 20:30	Liliba	Mexico	0.5
	12 Oct 2018 11:30	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.5
	12 Oct 2018 19:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.5
	12 Oct 2018 11:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.5
	12 Oct 2018 12:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.4
	12 Oct 2018 12:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.4
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.4
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 17:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	Guaymas	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 12:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 14:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	Atanacio	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 12:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 12:30	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 12:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 17:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 15:30	Aguaje	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2018 22:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2018 15:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2018 19:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2018 11:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2018 12:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2018 10:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2018 12:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2018 17:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2018 14:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 14:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 10:30	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 23:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 13:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 22:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 13:30	San Felipe	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 07:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 14:30	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 17:30	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 17:30	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 22:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 14:30	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 15:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 07:30	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 18:30	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1