Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (12 Oct 20:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 111 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

111 km/h Current

Up to 6.4 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 139 6.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 139 8.7 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 130 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 111 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 111 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 44 10 Oct 2018 09:00 111 6.4 million No people Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.4, -102.1
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.1, -102.8
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.3, -103.3
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -104.3
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -105.4
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.5, -106.3
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -107.3
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.6
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -109.5
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -111
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.9, -112
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -113.2
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -114
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.2, -115.1
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.8, -115.8
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.3, -116.7
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.9, -117.3
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13.3, -117.9
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, -118.3
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, -118.8
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15, -119.3
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.5, -119.9
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.9, -120.5
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16, -121.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 15.9, -121.8
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.7, -122.3
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.3, -122.7
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.9, -123.5
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.7, -124
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.7
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.4
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.6, -126.1
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.8
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.7, -127.5
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.9, -127.9
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.3, -128.6
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -128.5
GREEN
39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16, -128.6
GREEN
40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.3, -127.9
GREEN
41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.6, -127.4
GREEN
42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.9, -126.5
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -125.6
GREEN
44 10 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -124.9
GREEN
44 10 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18.8, -122.9
GREEN
44 11 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 20.6, -120.4
GREEN
44 11 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 17000 people no people 23, -117.7 Mexico
GREEN
44 12 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 2.5 million people no people 25.4, -114.7 Mexico
GREEN
44 13 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 4.1 million people no people 30.3, -107.3 Mexico
GREEN
44 14 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 34.5, -97.8 United States
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico
United States

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Mexico 1.8 million people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
New Mexico United States 1.5 million people
Texas United States 17.6 million people
Oklahoma United States 3.2 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Isla Natividad Baja California Sur Mexico City -
Villa Constitución Baja California Sur Mexico City -
San Juanico Baja California Sur Mexico City -
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people
Huatabampo Sonora Mexico City 30000 people
Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City -
Navojoa Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Major city 580000 people
Rosario Sonora Mexico City -
Buenaventura Chihuahua Mexico City -
Nuevo Casas Grandes Chihuahua Mexico City 50000 people
Ciudad Juárez Chihuahua Mexico Major city 790000 people
El Paso Texas United States Major city 560000 people
Carlsbad New Mexico United States City 25000 people
Pecos Texas United States City 9500 people
Artesia New Mexico United States City 10000 people
Kermit Texas United States City 5700 people
Monahans Texas United States City 6800 people
Hobbs New Mexico United States City 28000 people
Odessa Texas United States City 90000 people
Midland Texas United States City 94000 people
Lamesa Texas United States City 9900 people
Brownfield Texas United States City 9400 people
Levelland Texas United States City 12000 people
Lubbock Texas United States City 190000 people
Slaton Texas United States City 6100 people
Snyder Texas United States City 10000 people
Sweetwater Texas United States City 11000 people
Childress Texas United States City 6700 people
Vernon Texas United States City 11000 people
Altus Oklahoma United States City 21000 people
Wichita Falls Texas United States City 100000 people
Burkburnett Texas United States City 10000 people
Lawton Oklahoma United States City 92000 people
Duncan Oklahoma United States City 22000 people
Anadarko Oklahoma United States City 6600 people
Ardmore Oklahoma United States City 23000 people
Pauls Valley Oklahoma United States City 6200 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Bahia Tortugas 40 0
Abreojos AJS unknown 0
Villa Constitucion VIB 43 0
Guerrero Negro 18 0
Arroyo Capo 20 0
Guerrero Negro GUB 18 0
San Ignacio 1 SGM 244 0
Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Mulege MUG 61 0
Punta Chivato Bulge 2 0
Santa Rosalia SRL unknown 0
Punta Chivato PCV unknown 0
Bahia Kino North 6 0
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700
Villa Juarez South 46 0
Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Navojoa New 38 0
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International HMO 192 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Navojoa 60 0
Alamos XAL 400 0
Cumpas New 812 0
Rancho la Milpita 1435 0
Nuevo Casas Grande West 1463 0
Nuevo Casas Grandes NCG 1478 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
Santa Teresa Airport 1253 0
Ciudad Juarez International CJS 1171 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Cielo Dorado Estates 1143 0
Sierra Medical Center 1190 0
Thomason General Hospital 1128 0
Fabens 1121 0
Bear 1158 0
El Paso International ELP 1206 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
Biggs AAF BIF 1204 Mil. Paved Yes 13500
West Texas 1221 0
Fort Hancock 1072 0
Rhoads 1524 0
Sierra Blanca 1375 0
Lwb Ranch Cornudas 1311 0
Mayfield Ranch 1399 0
Culberson County VHN 1205 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
Big Tank Ranch 1463 0
Clm Ranch 1167 0
Figure 2 Ranch 1128 0
Dell City Municipal 1128 0
Blue Mountain 1524 0
Rancho del Cielo 1344 0
Triangle Ranch Private 1341 0
Seven Springs 1067 0
Carlsbad Caverns 1101 0
Carlsbad CNM 1004 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
Seven Rivers 1030 0
Pecos Municipal PEQ 798 Civ. Paved Yes 6200
2 X 4 Ranch 1024 0
Pay Jay Nr 2 1032 0
Winkler County INK 859 Civ. Paved Yes 4500
Roy Hurd Memorial MIF 796 0
Lea Co Jal 949 0
Lea Co Eunice 1088 0
J-Bar Ranch 813 0
Crane County CCG 778 0
Lea Co Hobbs HOB 1115 Civ. Paved Yes 7300
Lea County Lovington 1211 0
Industrial Airpark HBB 1130 0
Odessa Schlemeyer Field 915 Civ. Paved Yes 5700
Hamilton Aircraft, Inc 1073 0
Lea County (Tatum) 1215 0
Bates Field 860 0
Two Leggs 1105 0
Andrews County 969 0
Odessa Regional MAF 875 Civ. Paved Yes 9500
Seminole Spraying Service 1028 0
Gaines County 1010 0
Skywest Inc. 853 0
Denver City 1090 0
Bta 858 0
Midland Airpark MDD 854 Civ. Paved Yes 5000
Mabee Ranch 872 0
Yoakum County 1121 0
Ryan Aerodrome 835 0
Seagraves 1026 0
Stanton Municipal 832 0
Thorp 884 0
Edwards Lucian Wells Ranch 764 0
Brownfield Regional Medical Center 1012 0
Terry Co Af Aux 1053 0
Lamesa Municipal 914 0
Terry County 995 0
Big Spring Mcmahon Wrinkle 784 0
Coleman Cattle Company Nr 1 860 0
Levelland Municipal 1071 0
L P Askew Farms 948 0
Mc Nabb Farm 1010 0
T Bar 953 0
New Home 986 0
Reese AFB REE 1017 0
St Mary of The Plains Hospital 1000 0
Town And Country Airpark 975 0
University Medical Center 985 0
Department of Public Safety 979 0
Kitten Farm Private 930 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Puerto San Bartolome Mexico
Puerto Madalena Mexico
San Carlos MXSCR Mexico
Prt Venustiano Carranza Mexico
Muleje Mexico
Loreto Mexico
Santa Rosalia MXSRL Mexico
San Marcos Island MXSMI Mexico
Bahia Salinas Mexico
Tiburon Island Mexico
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico
Empalme Mexico
Yavaros Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Comaquito Babasac 1977
Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970
Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952
Abelardo Sonora 1948
El Molini Sonora 1991
Mocuzari Adolfo Ruiz Cortines Rio Mayo 1955
Novillo Plutarco Elias Calles El Yaqui 1964
La Angostura Bavispe 1942
Hudspeth Regulating Reservoir Diablo Reservoir Levee Offstream Rio Grande 1993
Red Bluff Dam Pecos River 1936
Brantley Brantley Pecos River 1989
Natural Dam Sulphur Springs Draw 1989
Red Draw Dam Red Draw 1985
Mitchell County Reservoir Dam Trib. Beals Creek 1991
Lake J.B. Thomas Lake J.B. Thomas Dam Colorado River 1952
Lake Colorado Lake Colorado City Dam Morgan Creek 1949
Champion Creek Dam Champion Creek 1959
Lake Alan Henry John T. Montford Dam Double Mountain Fork Brazos River 1994
White River Dam White River 1963
Lake Stamford Dam Paint Creek 1953
Truscott Brine Lake Truscott Brine Dam South Fork of Wichita River 1983
Millers Creek Dam Millers Creek 1974
Lake Kemp Dam Big Wichita River 1923
Santa Rosa Dam Beaver Creek 1929
Lake Diversion Dam Wichita River 1924
Lake Electra Dam Camp Creek 1950
Lake Kickapoo Dam North Fork of Little Wichita River 1945
North Fork Buffalo Creek Dam North Fork of Buffalo Creek 1964
Lake Frederick Deep Red Run Deep Red Creek 1974
Lake Arrowhead Dam Little Wichita River 1966
Tom Steed Mountain Park East Dike Otter Creek 1979
Lawtonka Lake Medicine Creek 1954
Waurika Lake Waurika Lake Beaver Creek 1977
Ellsworth East Cache Creek 1961
Farmers Creek Dam Farmers Creek 1960
Lake Humphreys Wildhorse Creek Site 22 Wildhorse Creek 1958
Chickasha Lake Spring Creek Site 1 Spring Creek 1958
Lake Fuqua Wildhorse Creek Site 39 Black Bear Creek 1962
Lake of the Arbuckles Arbuckle Dike 1 Rock Creek 1966
Pauls Valley Washington Creek 1954
R.C. Longmire Cherokee Sandy Site 17 Cherokee Sandy Creek 1989

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Liliba, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 20:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (48 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 44 of 10 Oct 2018 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Liliba Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Empalme Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 18:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 San Jose Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 22:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 18:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 10:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 17:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 10:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 23:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 22:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 13:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 07:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Altata Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 22:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 07:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 18:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1