Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (12 Oct 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 111 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

111 km/h Current

Up to 4.8 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 139 6.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 139 8.7 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 130 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 111 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 111 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.4, -102.1
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.1, -102.8
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.3, -103.3
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -104.3
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -105.4
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.5, -106.3
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -107.3
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.6
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -109.5
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -111
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.9, -112
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -113.2
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -114
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.2, -115.1
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.8, -115.8
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.3, -116.7
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.9, -117.3
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13.3, -117.9
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, -118.3
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, -118.8
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15, -119.3
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.5, -119.9
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.9, -120.5
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16, -121.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 15.9, -121.8
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.7, -122.3
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.3, -122.7
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.9, -123.5
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.7, -124
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.7
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.4
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.6, -126.1
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.8
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.7, -127.5
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.9, -127.9
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.3, -128.6
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -128.5
GREEN
39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16, -128.6
GREEN
40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.3, -127.9
GREEN
41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.6, -127.4
GREEN
42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.9, -126.5
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -125.6
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 18.2, -124.2
GREEN
43 11 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 19.6, -121.9
GREEN
43 11 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 21.7, -119.3
GREEN
43 12 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 1.8 million people no people 24.1, -116.5 Mexico
GREEN
43 13 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 4.5 million people no people 28.7, -110 Mexico
GREEN
43 14 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 33, -101.8 United States
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico
United States

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Mexico 1.8 million people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
New Mexico United States 1.5 million people
Texas United States 17.6 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
San Juanico Baja California Sur Mexico City - 1665 km
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people 1899 km
Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people 1908 km
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people 1929 km
Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City - 1952 km
Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Major city 580000 people 1970 km
Rosario Sonora Mexico City - 2020 km
Nuevo Casas Grandes Chihuahua Mexico City 50000 people 2293 km
Buenaventura Chihuahua Mexico City - 2294 km
Ciudad Juárez Chihuahua Mexico Major city 790000 people 2490 km
El Paso Texas United States Major city 560000 people 2495 km
Carlsbad New Mexico United States City 25000 people 2708 km
Pecos Texas United States City 9500 people 2711 km
Kermit Texas United States City 5700 people 2768 km
Monahans Texas United States City 6800 people 2770 km
Hobbs New Mexico United States City 28000 people 2813 km
Odessa Texas United States City 90000 people 2828 km
Midland Texas United States City 94000 people 2857 km
Brownfield Texas United States City 9400 people 2908 km
Lamesa Texas United States City 9900 people 2909 km
Levelland Texas United States City 12000 people 2923 km
Lubbock Texas United States City 190000 people 2962 km
Slaton Texas United States City 6100 people 2973 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Bahia Tortugas 40 0 1575 km
Abreojos AJS unknown 0 1605 km
Guerrero Negro 18 0 1657 km
Guerrero Negro GUB 18 0 1663 km
San Ignacio 1 SGM 244 0 1694 km
Mulege MUG 61 0 1743 km
Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200 1746 km
Punta Chivato Bulge 2 0 1748 km
Santa Rosalia SRL unknown 0 1750 km
Punta Chivato PCV unknown 0 1756 km
Bahia Kino North 6 0 1875 km
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700 1899 km
Villa Juarez South 46 0 1937 km
Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 1955 km
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International HMO 192 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 1963 km
Cumpas New 812 0 2125 km
Nuevo Casas Grande West 1463 0 2290 km
Nuevo Casas Grandes NCG 1478 Civ. Unpaved No 4900 2296 km
Ciudad Juarez International CJS 1171 Civ. Paved Yes 8800 2487 km
Thomason General Hospital 1128 0 2495 km
Fabens 1121 0 2502 km
El Paso International ELP 1206 Civ. Paved Yes 11000 2502 km
West Texas 1221 0 2507 km
Fort Hancock 1072 0 2512 km
Sierra Blanca 1375 0 2544 km
Lwb Ranch Cornudas 1311 0 2574 km
Mayfield Ranch 1399 0 2578 km
Culberson County VHN 1205 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 2585 km
Big Tank Ranch 1463 0 2586 km
Clm Ranch 1167 0 2595 km
Figure 2 Ranch 1128 0 2602 km
Dell City Municipal 1128 0 2604 km
Rancho del Cielo 1344 0 2629 km
Triangle Ranch Private 1341 0 2638 km
Seven Springs 1067 0 2660 km
Carlsbad Caverns 1101 0 2684 km
Carlsbad CNM 1004 Civ. Paved Yes 7800 2701 km
Seven Rivers 1030 0 2704 km
Pecos Municipal PEQ 798 Civ. Paved Yes 6200 2708 km
Winkler County INK 859 Civ. Paved Yes 4500 2755 km
Roy Hurd Memorial MIF 796 0 2768 km
Lea Co Jal 949 0 2778 km
Lea Co Eunice 1088 0 2790 km
Lea Co Hobbs HOB 1115 Civ. Paved Yes 7300 2805 km
Lea County Lovington 1211 0 2805 km
Industrial Airpark HBB 1130 0 2810 km
Hamilton Aircraft, Inc 1073 0 2829 km
Odessa Schlemeyer Field 915 Civ. Paved Yes 5700 2830 km
Two Leggs 1105 0 2837 km
Bates Field 860 0 2838 km
Andrews County 969 0 2840 km
Seminole Spraying Service 1028 0 2845 km
Odessa Regional MAF 875 Civ. Paved Yes 9500 2846 km
Gaines County 1010 0 2849 km
Denver City 1090 0 2851 km
Bta 858 0 2859 km
Midland Airpark MDD 854 Civ. Paved Yes 5000 2859 km
Mabee Ranch 872 0 2864 km
Yoakum County 1121 0 2866 km
Ryan Aerodrome 835 0 2869 km
Seagraves 1026 0 2875 km
Stanton Municipal 832 0 2890 km
Thorp 884 0 2903 km
Brownfield Regional Medical Center 1012 0 2909 km
Terry Co Af Aux 1053 0 2912 km
Lamesa Municipal 914 0 2913 km
Terry County 995 0 2915 km
Coleman Cattle Company Nr 1 860 0 2917 km
Levelland Municipal 1071 0 2922 km
L P Askew Farms 948 0 2928 km
Mc Nabb Farm 1010 0 2937 km
T Bar 953 0 2945 km
New Home 986 0 2945 km
Reese AFB REE 1017 0 2951 km
St Mary of The Plains Hospital 1000 0 2961 km
Town And Country Airpark 975 0 2963 km
University Medical Center 985 0 2965 km
Department of Public Safety 979 0 2966 km
Kitten Farm Private 930 0 2969 km
Macy Ranch 875 0 2969 km
Lubbock International LBB 1000 Civ. Paved Yes 11500 2972 km
Slaton Municipal 952 0 2975 km
Post Garza County Municipal 776 0 2985 km
Everitt 975 0 2985 km
Beggs Ranch 718 0 3009 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Puerto San Bartolome Mexico 1574 km
San Carlos MXSCR Mexico 1615 km
Prt Venustiano Carranza Mexico 1653 km
Muleje Mexico 1744 km
Loreto Mexico 1749 km
Santa Rosalia MXSRL Mexico 1751 km
San Marcos Island MXSMI Mexico 1756 km
Bahia Salinas Mexico 1767 km
Tiburon Island Mexico 1853 km
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico 1899 km
Empalme Mexico 1906 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Comaquito Babasac 1977 1928 km
Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970 1970 km
Abelardo Sonora 1948 1971 km
Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952 1974 km
El Molini Sonora 1991 1995 km
Novillo Plutarco Elias Calles El Yaqui 1964 2065 km
La Angostura Bavispe 1942 2181 km
Hudspeth Regulating Reservoir Diablo Reservoir Levee Offstream Rio Grande 1993 2513 km
Red Bluff Dam Pecos River 1936 2704 km
Brantley Brantley Pecos River 1989 2704 km
Natural Dam Sulphur Springs Draw 1989 2908 km
Lake J.B. Thomas Lake J.B. Thomas Dam Colorado River 1952 2969 km
Lake Alan Henry John T. Montford Dam Double Mountain Fork Brazos River 1994 3001 km
White River Dam White River 1963 3020 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Boca del Melgoita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (78 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 53 of 12 Oct 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.6
12 Oct 2018 11:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 11:30 La Playa Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Liliba Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 16:30 San Jose Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Empalme Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 10:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 La Boca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 09:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 08:30 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1