Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (12 Oct 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 111 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

111 km/h Current

Up to 4.8 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 139 6.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 139 8.7 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 130 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 111 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 111 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.4, -102.1
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.1, -102.8
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.3, -103.3
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -104.3
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -105.4
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.5, -106.3
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -107.3
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.6
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -109.5
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -111
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.9, -112
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -113.2
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -114
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.2, -115.1
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.8, -115.8
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.3, -116.7
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.9, -117.3
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13.3, -117.9
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, -118.3
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, -118.8
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15, -119.3
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.5, -119.9
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.9, -120.5
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16, -121.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 15.9, -121.8
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.7, -122.3
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.3, -122.7
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.9, -123.5
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.7, -124
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.7
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.4
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.6, -126.1
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.8
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.7, -127.5
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.9, -127.9
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.3, -128.6
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -128.5
GREEN
39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16, -128.6
GREEN
40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.3, -127.9
GREEN
41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.6, -127.4
GREEN
42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.9, -126.5
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -125.6
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 18.2, -124.2
GREEN
43 11 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 19.6, -121.9
GREEN
43 11 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 21.7, -119.3
GREEN
43 12 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 1.8 million people no people 24.1, -116.5 Mexico
GREEN
43 13 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 4.5 million people no people 28.7, -110 Mexico
GREEN
43 14 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 33, -101.8 United States
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico
United States

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Mexico 1.8 million people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
New Mexico United States 1.5 million people
Texas United States 17.6 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
San Juanico Baja California Sur Mexico City -
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people
Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City -
Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Major city 580000 people
Rosario Sonora Mexico City -
Nuevo Casas Grandes Chihuahua Mexico City 50000 people
Buenaventura Chihuahua Mexico City -
Ciudad Juárez Chihuahua Mexico Major city 790000 people
El Paso Texas United States Major city 560000 people
Carlsbad New Mexico United States City 25000 people
Pecos Texas United States City 9500 people
Kermit Texas United States City 5700 people
Monahans Texas United States City 6800 people
Hobbs New Mexico United States City 28000 people
Odessa Texas United States City 90000 people
Midland Texas United States City 94000 people
Brownfield Texas United States City 9400 people
Lamesa Texas United States City 9900 people
Levelland Texas United States City 12000 people
Lubbock Texas United States City 190000 people
Slaton Texas United States City 6100 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Bahia Tortugas 40 0
Abreojos AJS unknown 0
Guerrero Negro 18 0
Guerrero Negro GUB 18 0
San Ignacio 1 SGM 244 0
Mulege MUG 61 0
Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Punta Chivato Bulge 2 0
Santa Rosalia SRL unknown 0
Punta Chivato PCV unknown 0
Bahia Kino North 6 0
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700
Villa Juarez South 46 0
Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International HMO 192 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Cumpas New 812 0
Nuevo Casas Grande West 1463 0
Nuevo Casas Grandes NCG 1478 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
Ciudad Juarez International CJS 1171 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Thomason General Hospital 1128 0
Fabens 1121 0
El Paso International ELP 1206 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
West Texas 1221 0
Fort Hancock 1072 0
Sierra Blanca 1375 0
Lwb Ranch Cornudas 1311 0
Mayfield Ranch 1399 0
Culberson County VHN 1205 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
Big Tank Ranch 1463 0
Clm Ranch 1167 0
Figure 2 Ranch 1128 0
Dell City Municipal 1128 0
Rancho del Cielo 1344 0
Triangle Ranch Private 1341 0
Seven Springs 1067 0
Carlsbad Caverns 1101 0
Carlsbad CNM 1004 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
Seven Rivers 1030 0
Pecos Municipal PEQ 798 Civ. Paved Yes 6200
Winkler County INK 859 Civ. Paved Yes 4500
Roy Hurd Memorial MIF 796 0
Lea Co Jal 949 0
Lea Co Eunice 1088 0
Lea Co Hobbs HOB 1115 Civ. Paved Yes 7300
Lea County Lovington 1211 0
Industrial Airpark HBB 1130 0
Hamilton Aircraft, Inc 1073 0
Odessa Schlemeyer Field 915 Civ. Paved Yes 5700
Two Leggs 1105 0
Bates Field 860 0
Andrews County 969 0
Seminole Spraying Service 1028 0
Odessa Regional MAF 875 Civ. Paved Yes 9500
Gaines County 1010 0
Denver City 1090 0
Bta 858 0
Midland Airpark MDD 854 Civ. Paved Yes 5000
Mabee Ranch 872 0
Yoakum County 1121 0
Ryan Aerodrome 835 0
Seagraves 1026 0
Stanton Municipal 832 0
Thorp 884 0
Brownfield Regional Medical Center 1012 0
Terry Co Af Aux 1053 0
Lamesa Municipal 914 0
Terry County 995 0
Coleman Cattle Company Nr 1 860 0
Levelland Municipal 1071 0
L P Askew Farms 948 0
Mc Nabb Farm 1010 0
T Bar 953 0
New Home 986 0
Reese AFB REE 1017 0
St Mary of The Plains Hospital 1000 0
Town And Country Airpark 975 0
University Medical Center 985 0
Department of Public Safety 979 0
Kitten Farm Private 930 0
Macy Ranch 875 0
Lubbock International LBB 1000 Civ. Paved Yes 11500
Slaton Municipal 952 0
Post Garza County Municipal 776 0
Everitt 975 0
Beggs Ranch 718 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Puerto San Bartolome Mexico
San Carlos MXSCR Mexico
Prt Venustiano Carranza Mexico
Muleje Mexico
Loreto Mexico
Santa Rosalia MXSRL Mexico
San Marcos Island MXSMI Mexico
Bahia Salinas Mexico
Tiburon Island Mexico
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico
Empalme Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Comaquito Babasac 1977
Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970
Abelardo Sonora 1948
Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952
El Molini Sonora 1991
Novillo Plutarco Elias Calles El Yaqui 1964
La Angostura Bavispe 1942
Hudspeth Regulating Reservoir Diablo Reservoir Levee Offstream Rio Grande 1993
Red Bluff Dam Pecos River 1936
Brantley Brantley Pecos River 1989
Natural Dam Sulphur Springs Draw 1989
Lake J.B. Thomas Lake J.B. Thomas Dam Colorado River 1952
Lake Alan Henry John T. Montford Dam Double Mountain Fork Brazos River 1994
White River Dam White River 1963

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Boca del Melgoita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 13:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (46 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 43 of 10 Oct 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 21:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 13:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 21:30 Liliba Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Empalme Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 19:30 San Jose Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 20:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 19:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 23:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 21:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 20:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 11:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Altata Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2018 00:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 08:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2018 00:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 20:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1