Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico
GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (12 Oct 14:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 111 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.6 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 139 6.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 139 8.7 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 130 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 111 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.4, -102.1
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.1, -102.8
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.3, -103.3
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -104.3
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -105.4
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.5, -106.3
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -107.3
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.6
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -109.5
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -111
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.9, -112
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -113.2
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -114
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.2, -115.1
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.8, -115.8
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.3, -116.7
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.9, -117.3
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13.3, -117.9
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, -118.3
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, -118.8
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15, -119.3
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.5, -119.9
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.9, -120.5
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16, -121.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 15.9, -121.8
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.7, -122.3
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.3, -122.7
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.9, -123.5
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.7, -124
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.7
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.4
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.6, -126.1
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.8
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.7, -127.5
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.9, -127.9
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.3, -128.6
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -128.5
GREEN
39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16, -128.6
GREEN
40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.3, -127.9
GREEN
41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.6, -127.4
GREEN
42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.9, -126.5
GREEN
42 10 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -125.4
GREEN
42 10 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18.7, -123.4
GREEN
42 11 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 20.3, -121
GREEN
42 11 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 650000 people no people 22.7, -118.2 Mexico
GREEN
42 12 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 4.5 million people no people 27.3, -112 Mexico
GREEN
42 13 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 31, -105.5 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico
United States

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Mexico 1.8 million people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
New Mexico United States 1.5 million people
Texas United States 17.6 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
San Juanico Baja California Sur Mexico City -
Villa Constitución Baja California Sur Mexico City -
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people
Huatabampo Sonora Mexico City 30000 people
Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City -
Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Major city 580000 people
Navojoa Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
Rosario Sonora Mexico City -
Nuevo Casas Grandes Chihuahua Mexico City 50000 people
Buenaventura Chihuahua Mexico City -
Ciudad Juárez Chihuahua Mexico Major city 790000 people
El Paso Texas United States Major city 560000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Bahia Tortugas 40 0
Abreojos AJS unknown 0
Guerrero Negro 18 0
Guerrero Negro GUB 18 0
Villa Constitucion VIB 43 0
Arroyo Capo 20 0
San Ignacio 1 SGM 244 0
Mulege MUG 61 0
Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Punta Chivato Bulge 2 0
Santa Rosalia SRL unknown 0
Punta Chivato PCV unknown 0
Bahia Kino North 6 0
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700
Villa Juarez South 46 0
Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International HMO 192 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Navojoa New 38 0
Navojoa 60 0
Cumpas New 812 0
Nuevo Casas Grande West 1463 0
Nuevo Casas Grandes NCG 1478 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
Ciudad Juarez International CJS 1171 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Sierra Medical Center 1190 0
Thomason General Hospital 1128 0
Bear 1158 0
El Paso International ELP 1206 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
Fabens 1121 0
Biggs AAF BIF 1204 Mil. Paved Yes 13500
West Texas 1221 0
Fort Hancock 1072 0
Rhoads 1524 0
Sierra Blanca 1375 0
Lwb Ranch Cornudas 1311 0
Mayfield Ranch 1399 0
Culberson County VHN 1205 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
Big Tank Ranch 1463 0
Clm Ranch 1167 0
Figure 2 Ranch 1128 0
Dell City Municipal 1128 0
Rancho del Cielo 1344 0
Triangle Ranch Private 1341 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Puerto San Bartolome Mexico
Puerto Madalena Mexico
San Carlos MXSCR Mexico
Prt Venustiano Carranza Mexico
Muleje Mexico
Loreto Mexico
Santa Rosalia MXSRL Mexico
San Marcos Island MXSMI Mexico
Bahia Salinas Mexico
Tiburon Island Mexico
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico
Empalme Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Comaquito Babasac 1977
Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970
Abelardo Sonora 1948
Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952
El Molini Sonora 1991
Mocuzari Adolfo Ruiz Cortines Rio Mayo 1955
Novillo Plutarco Elias Calles El Yaqui 1964
La Angostura Bavispe 1942
Hudspeth Regulating Reservoir Diablo Reservoir Levee Offstream Rio Grande 1993

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Boca del Melgoita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.