Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIA-18 in China, Japan from 02 Jul 2018 18:00 UTC to 05 Jul 2018 06:00 UTC

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GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2018-000110-CHN
Exposed countries	China, Japan
Exposed population	25.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (04 Jul 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	213 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	250 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	02 Jul 2018 18:00	176	160 thousand	No people	Guam
2	03 Jul 2018 00:00	194	160 thousand	No people	Guam
3	03 Jul 2018 06:00	185	210 thousand	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
4	03 Jul 2018 12:00	176	210 thousand	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
5	03 Jul 2018 18:00	176	200 thousand	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
6	04 Jul 2018 00:00	176	210 thousand	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
7	04 Jul 2018 06:00	176	210 thousand	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
8	04 Jul 2018 12:00	185	170 thousand	No people	Guam
9	04 Jul 2018 18:00	250	210 thousand	2 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
10	05 Jul 2018 00:00	250	1.6 million	2 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
11	05 Jul 2018 06:00	213	1.7 million	1.3 million	Japan

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	02 Jul 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	9.9, 146
2	03 Jul 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	10.4, 145.8
3	03 Jul 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	11.1, 148.5
4	03 Jul 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	11.8, 147.3
5	03 Jul 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	11.4, 146.5
6	04 Jul 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	11.7, 146.3
7	04 Jul 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	210000 people	12.4, 146.1	Northern Mariana Islands
8	04 Jul 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	160000 people	12.6, 145.2	Guam
9	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	<1000 people	210000 people	13.6, 144.9	Guam
10	05 Jul 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	210000 people	14.1, 144.1	Northern Mariana Islands
11	05 Jul 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	160000 people	14.6, 143.4	Guam
11	05 Jul 2018 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	15.6, 142.5
11	06 Jul 2018 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	16.7, 141.9
11	06 Jul 2018 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	17.6, 141.4
11	07 Jul 2018 06:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	18.7, 140.9
11	08 Jul 2018 06:00	Category 4	241	no people	<1000 people	20.8, 138.2
11	09 Jul 2018 06:00	Category 4	213	1.3 million people	1.4 million people	23.3, 134	Japan
11	10 Jul 2018 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	26.2, 128.5	Japan

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Japan

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Okinawa	Japan

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Naha	Okinawa	Japan	City	300000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Minami Daito	MMD	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Futenma Mcas		75	Mil.	Paved	Yes	9000
Yoron	RNJ	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Naha	OKA	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Kadena AB	DNA	45	Mil.	Paved	Yes	12100
Ie Jima	IEJ	75	Civ.	Paved	No	4900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Okino		Japan
Nakagusuku Wan		Japan
Kin Wan	JPKIN	Japan
Heianza	JPHEI	Japan
Nishihara	JPNHR	Japan
Oku		Japan
Naha	JPNAH	Japan

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Kannako	Kanna	Kannafukujigawa	1993
	Okukubi	Okukubigawa	2001
Zukeyama	Kurashiki	Yonabarugawa	1995

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Camp Quezon, Guam. This height is estimated for 04 Jul 2018 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (36 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 05 Jul 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Camp Quezon	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Asbeco	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Adacao	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Asan	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Hagatna	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Sinajana	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Mongmong	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Yona	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Tamuning	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Barrigada	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Harmon Village	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Oceanview	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Dededo	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	South Acres	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Ipapao	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Potts Junction	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Perez Acres	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Spring Hill Subdivision	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Upi	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Gayinero	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Asatdas	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Lupog	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Agat	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 18:00	Santa Rita	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 17:00	Inarajan	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 17:00	Talofofo	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 17:00	Ylig	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 19:00	Lockwood Terrace	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 19:00	Camp Bright	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 19:00	Piti	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 17:00	Umatac	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 17:00	Merizo	Guam	0.2
	04 Jul 2018 19:00	Songsong	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	04 Jul 2018 19:00	Teteto	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	04 Jul 2018 19:00	Rota	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	04 Jul 2018 19:00	Sinapalo	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1