Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUD-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BUD-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 213 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (15 Jun 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 102 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 213 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

102 km/h Current

Up to 2 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 09 Jun 2018 21:00 167 Few people No people Mexico
Green 2 10 Jun 2018 03:00 148 Few people No people
Green 3 10 Jun 2018 09:00 148 100 thousand No people Mexico
Green 4 10 Jun 2018 15:00 176 530 thousand No people Mexico
Green 5 10 Jun 2018 21:00 176 520 thousand No people Mexico
Green 6 11 Jun 2018 03:00 185 520 thousand No people Mexico
Green 7 11 Jun 2018 09:00 185 520 thousand No people Mexico
Green 8 11 Jun 2018 15:00 204 520 thousand No people Mexico
Green 9 11 Jun 2018 21:00 204 570 thousand No people Mexico
Green 10 12 Jun 2018 03:00 204 610 thousand No people Mexico
Green 11 12 Jun 2018 09:00 213 610 thousand Few people Mexico
Green 12 12 Jun 2018 15:00 204 1.7 million No people Mexico
Green 13 12 Jun 2018 21:00 185 520 thousand No people Mexico
Green 14 13 Jun 2018 03:00 148 520 thousand No people Mexico
Green 15 13 Jun 2018 09:00 120 1.8 million No people Mexico
Green 16 13 Jun 2018 15:00 102 2 million No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 09 Jun 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.4, -101.6
GREEN
2 10 Jun 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.9, -102
GREEN
3 10 Jun 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.4, -102.6
GREEN
4 10 Jun 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.7, -103.5
GREEN
5 10 Jun 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.3, -104.2
GREEN
6 11 Jun 2018 03:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16, -104.9
GREEN
7 11 Jun 2018 09:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 16.3, -106.1
GREEN
8 11 Jun 2018 15:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16.7, -106.8
GREEN
9 11 Jun 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 17, -107.4
GREEN
10 12 Jun 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 17.6, -107.6
GREEN
11 12 Jun 2018 09:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 18.1, -108.2
GREEN
12 12 Jun 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 18.4, -108.4
GREEN
13 12 Jun 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 18.6, -108.6
GREEN
14 13 Jun 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 18.7, -108.6
GREEN
15 13 Jun 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 19.1, -108.8
GREEN
16 13 Jun 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 19.4, -108.8
GREEN
16 14 Jun 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 20.1, -109
GREEN
16 14 Jun 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 230000 people no people 21.1, -109.4 Mexico
GREEN
16 15 Jun 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 510000 people no people 22.4, -109.7 Mexico
GREEN
16 15 Jun 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 1.7 million people no people 24.2, -109.9 Mexico
GREEN
16 16 Jun 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 29.3, -109.4 Mexico
GREEN
16 17 Jun 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 35.5, -106 United States
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
La Paz Baja California Sur Mexico Major city 170000 people
Los Mochis Sinaloa Mexico City 210000 people
Ahome Sonora Mexico City 10000 people
Huatabampo Sonora Mexico City 30000 people
Navojoa Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people
Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City -
Rosario Sonora Mexico City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Cabo San Lucas 139 0
Los Cabos International SJD 109 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
Punta Colorada PCO unknown 0
Punta Pescadero 7 0
Leon LAP 21 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
La Paz 26 0
Los Mochis LMM 4 Civ. Paved Yes 6500
Los Cerritos Northeast 17 0
Navojoa New 38 0
Alamos XAL 400 0
Navojoa 60 0
Villa Juarez South 46 0
Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
San Lucas Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo Mexico
Buenavista Mexico
La Paz Mexico
San Juan de la Costa MXSJC Mexico
Topolobampo MXTPB Mexico
Yavaros Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Presa Josefa Ortiz de Dominguez Alamos 1967
Mocuzari Adolfo Ruiz Cortines Rio Mayo 1955
Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952
Novillo Plutarco Elias Calles El Yaqui 1964

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Aquajito, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Jun 2018 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (29 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 13 Jun 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Jun 2018 21:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
15 Jun 2018 03:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 12:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 11:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 10:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
16 Jun 2018 00:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 04:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 10:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 12:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
16 Jun 2018 00:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 20:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
16 Jun 2018 03:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 20:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 12:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 03:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 11:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 09:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
16 Jun 2018 02:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 14:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 06:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 04:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 09:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 17:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 08:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 07:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 13:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 19:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
15 Jun 2018 15:00 Altata Mexico  0.1