Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for LOLA-23 in Vanuatu, Solomon Islands from 21 Oct 2023 18:00 UTC to 23 Oct 2023 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for LOLA-23

in Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

23 Oct 2023 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LOLA-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2023-000207-VUT
Exposed countries	Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
Exposed population	60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	222 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (24 Oct 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Vanuatu)
Landfall	between 23 Oct 2023 18:00 - 24 Oct 2023 06:00 in Vanuatu

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	176 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	222 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

176 km/h Current Max.

Up to 70000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	21 Oct 2023 18:00	185	90 thousand	1 thousand	Solomon Islands, Vanuatu
2	22 Oct 2023 00:00	185	60 thousand	1 thousand	Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia
3	22 Oct 2023 06:00	185	210 thousand	2 thousand	Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia
4	22 Oct 2023 12:00	185	230 thousand	20 thousand	Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
5	22 Oct 2023 18:00	185	480 thousand	70 thousand	Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
6	23 Oct 2023 00:00	148	470 thousand	40 thousand	Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
7	23 Oct 2023 06:00	176	270 thousand	70 thousand	Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	21 Oct 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	8400 people	-9.4, 167.6
2	22 Oct 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	13000 people	-10.1, 167.6
3	22 Oct 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	33000 people	-10.7, 167.9
4	22 Oct 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	102	1200 people	4900 people	-11.4, 168.9
5	22 Oct 2023 18:00	Category 1	120	<1000 people	12000 people	-12.3, 169
6	23 Oct 2023 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	11000 people	-12.5, 169.3
7	23 Oct 2023 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	49000 people	-13.2, 169.4
7	23 Oct 2023 18:00	Category 3	185	3000 people	170000 people	-14.1, 169
7	24 Oct 2023 06:00	Category 2	176	65000 people	170000 people	-14.9, 168.3	Vanuatu
7	24 Oct 2023 18:00	Category 1	148	50000 people	160000 people	-15.8, 167.2	Vanuatu
7	25 Oct 2023 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	85000 people	-16.6, 166.3
7	26 Oct 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	76000 people	-18.6, 165.5
7	27 Oct 2023 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-21.3, 166.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Vanuatu	48000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Vanuatu	Vanuatu	48000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Maewo	MWF	unknown				0
Longana	LOD	unknown				0
Redcliffe	RCL	unknown				0
Walaha	WLH	unknown				0
Santo Pekoa International	SON	56	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Big Bay	GBA	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Maewo Island		Vanuatu
Palikoulo Bay		Vanuatu
Santo	VUSAN	Vanuatu

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Jasmori, Vanuatu. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2023 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (42 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 23 Oct 2023 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Oct 2023 05:00	Jasmori	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 10:00	Narovorovo	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 10:00	Lolowai	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 10:00	Lowitava	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 10:00	Longang	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 10:00	Duin Dui	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 10:00	Walurigi	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 10:00	Lolopuepue	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 13:00	Lolovele	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 13:00	Walaha	Vanuatu	0.4
	24 Oct 2023 16:00	Palikoulo	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 20:00	Asavagas	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 20:00	Wowo	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 20:00	Laruru	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 20:00	Vao	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 20:00	Abnetare	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 20:00	Tenmaru	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 16:00	Coulons	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 17:00	Segond	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 17:00	Luganville	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 17:00	Saraotou	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 21:00	Olo Olo	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 21:00	Tasiriki	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 19:00	Youelapa	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 19:00	Wailapo	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 21:00	Ellarmo	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 21:00	Brenwe	Vanuatu	0.3
	24 Oct 2023 20:00	Losoue	Vanuatu	0.2
	24 Oct 2023 16:00	Longtal	Vanuatu	0.2
	24 Oct 2023 11:00	Abatabanga	Vanuatu	0.2
	24 Oct 2023 15:00	Hog Harbour	Vanuatu	0.2
	24 Oct 2023 15:00	Lowarhe	Vanuatu	0.2
	24 Oct 2023 17:00	Mae	Vanuatu	0.1
	24 Oct 2023 17:00	Norsup	Vanuatu	0.1
	24 Oct 2023 22:00	Laravet	Vanuatu	0.1
	24 Oct 2023 22:00	Tavendrua	Vanuatu	0.1
	24 Oct 2023 22:00	Vinmavis	Vanuatu	0.1
	27 Oct 2023 00:00	Mouly	New Caledonia	0.1
	27 Oct 2023 00:00	Lekia	New Caledonia	0.1
	24 Oct 2023 13:00	Iakobone	Vanuatu	0.1
	27 Oct 2023 03:00	Fayaoue	New Caledonia	0.1
	27 Oct 2023 03:00	Ognahu	New Caledonia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.