Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for DOLPHIN-15 in Guam from 09 May 2015 18:00 UTC to 07 May 2015 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DOLPHIN-15

in Guam

07 May 2015 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DOLPHIN-15 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Guam
Exposed population	170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (15 May 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	175 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

TOP

Wind

175 km/h Current Max.

Up to 33000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	06 May 2015 18:00	175	30 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of
	2	07 May 2015 00:00	175	30 thousand	30 thousand	Micronesia, Federated States of

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	06 May 2015 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	4.8, 159.3
2	07 May 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	3.9, 159.7
2	07 May 2015 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	3.7, 160.4
2	08 May 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	3.8, 161
2	08 May 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	4.3, 161.3
2	09 May 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	102	31000 people	31000 people	5, 161	Micronesia, Federated States of
2	10 May 2015 00:00	Category 1	139	31000 people	31000 people	6.9, 158.3	Micronesia, Federated States of
2	11 May 2015 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	8.9, 155.3
2	12 May 2015 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	10.4, 151.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Micronesia	32000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Micronesia	Micronesia, Federated States of

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Lot	Micronesia	Micronesia	City	-
Ronkiti	Micronesia	Micronesia	City	7300 people
Palikir	Micronesia	Micronesia	Capital	4600 people
Kolonia	Micronesia	Micronesia	Major city	4500 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Pohnpei International	PNI	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Pohnepi Harbor		Micronesia

TOP

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Gayinero, Guam. This height is estimated for 15 May 2015 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (43 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 52 of 19 May 2015 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 May 2015 08:00	Gayinero	Guam	0.5
	15 May 2015 08:00	Asatdas	Guam	0.5
	15 May 2015 08:00	Lupog	Guam	0.5
	15 May 2015 09:00	Harmon Village	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Oceanview	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Dededo	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	South Acres	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Ipapao	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Potts Junction	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Perez Acres	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Spring Hill Subdivision	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Upi	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 10:00	Songsong	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	15 May 2015 10:00	Teteto	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	15 May 2015 08:00	Camp Quezon	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 08:00	Asbeco	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 08:00	Adacao	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Rota	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Sinapalo	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Asan	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Hagatna	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Sinajana	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Mongmong	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Yona	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Tamuning	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Barrigada	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 10:00	Lockwood Terrace	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 10:00	Camp Bright	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 10:00	Piti	Guam	0.2
	19 May 2015 16:00	Omura	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 16:00	Ogigaura	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 16:00	Sakaiura	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 15:00	Oki	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 15:00	Hyogidaira	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 11:00	Ishinomura	Japan	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Agat	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Santa Rita	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Talofofo	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Ylig	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Inarajan	Guam	0.1
	15 May 2015 10:00	Umatac	Guam	0.1
	15 May 2015 10:00	Merizo	Guam	0.1
	19 May 2015 09:00	Higashi	Japan	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.