04 Feb 2026  09:56 UTC.

• From 1-3 February, very low temperatures, heavy snowfall and strong winds have affected Lithuania, resulting in casualties and traffic disruptions.
• Media, as of 3 February report three deaths in Telšiai (northwest), Anykšciai (northeast) and Vilnius (southeast) districts due to the extreme cold, while at least 30 injuries are linked to frostbite or hypothermia.
• Additionally, public transport disruptions were reported for Vilnius, Klaipeda and Šiauliai; some schools switched to distance learning on 2-3 February. 
• Over the next 48 hours, additional isolated light snowfall is forecast across the country.

04 Feb 2026  09:56 UTC.

• Bosnia and Herzegovina: warning level 1/2 for Trebižat River.
• France: warning level 2/3 for the Dordogne basin.
• Poland: threshold level and warning level 2/3 for Brda river.
• Portugal: threshold level 2/2 for the Sado basin.
• Spain: threshold level 3/3 for the basins Guadalete, Huebra, Guadiana, Hozgaranta, Guadiaro, Almaro, Barca de la Florida and Warning level 2/3 for the Mino.
• United Kingdom: warning level 2/3 for 76 locations in England and 3 locations in Scotland.

NOTE: The current EFAS predictions show that for a number of river basins in Spain and Portugal, further peaks can be expected in the period from 4th to 9th of February, which may be higher than this week's peak. 
To avoid an overload of notifications for the EFAS partners in this region, the CEMS-Flood team has decided to leave the current notifications active, and not issue new notifications for the second peak. 
This means that the “earliest predicted peak” stated in the listed notifications below may therefore not be up to date for many notifications. 

04 Feb 2026  09:56 UTC.

• A new tropical depression named TWO ("Basyang" in the Philippines) formed over the Philippine Sea on 3 February late in the evening (UTC) and started moving west toward the southern Philippines. On 4 February at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located offshore approximately 670 km east of the coast of northern Mindanao island, with maximum sustained winds of 56 km/h.
• On the forecast track, TWO is expected to make landfall over the eastern coast of northern Mindanao island on 5 February early in the afternoon (UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h (tropical storm). After that, it is forecast to pass over the southern Visayas islands (central Philippines) on 6 February very early in the morning as a tropical depression.
• Heavy rainfall, with locally very heavy rainfall, is forecast over the southern and central Philippines starting from 5 February for 72 hours.

04 Feb 2026  09:56 UTC.

• A 5.9 M earthquake at a depth of 62.7 km struck eastern Myanmar on 3 February at 15:34 UTC (22:34 local time). The epicentre was located 95 km west of Yenangyaung, Magway region. The event was followed by an aftershock in the same area, at the same depth, 20 minutes later.
• For the main event, USGS PAGER estimates that up to 11,000 people were exposed to moderate shaking.
• Media as of 4 February reports that tremors were felt up to eastern India and neighbouring Bangladesh. No immediate casualties or damage have been recorded.

04 Feb 2026  09:56 UTC.

• Since 30 January, a severe winter storm has struck the southeastern United States, delivering subzero temperatures, fierce winds, and heavy snowfall. States including Mississippi, Tennessee, the Carolinas, Virginia, and even parts of Florida have been affected, leading to fatalities, displacement, travel disruptions, power failures, and water-supply problems.
• As of 3 February, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has recorded 25 deaths in Tennessee, where 422 individuals remain in 11 shelters, and 25 fatalities in Mississippi, where 927 residents are taking refuge in 51 shelters.
• Most drinking-water systems are partially operational now, keeping boil-water notices in effect, while crews continue efforts to restore power and clear snow-covered roads. 
• Forecasts for 4–5 February predict more mixed precipitation (including rain, freezing rain, and snow) across the southeastern United States.

04 Feb 2026  09:56 UTC.

• On 3 February, tropical cyclone FYTIA continued moving south-east over the southern Indian Ocean, well off the coast of Reunion, as a tropical storm, weakening. On 4 February at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the ocean, approximately 230 km south of Reunion, with maximum sustained winds of 53 km/h (tropical depression).
• Its passage over west, central and eastern Madagascar from 31 January to 1 February caused floods, and strong wind-related incidents resulted in casualties and damage. The BNGRC reports, as of 4 February, ten fatalities, one still missing person, seven injured people, 23 712 displaced people and 66 414 affected people countrywide. The most affected districts are Soalala, Mitsinjo, Mahajanga, Maevatanana, Analalava, Antsohihy, Port-Berge, Mampikony and Antananarivo.
• The Copernicus EMS was activated in rapid mapping mode () on 2 February, and four maps have been produced so far.
• On the forecast track, FYTIA is expected to dissipate on 4 February in the evening (UTC).
• Over the next 48 hours, more heavy rainfall, with locally very heavy rainfall, is still forecast over most of Madagascar. Moderate rainfall is forecast over Reunion over the next 72 hours.

04 Feb 2026  09:56 UTC.

• Very heavy snowfall and very low temperatures have been affecting northern, central and western Japan and the coastal area of the Sea of Japan since 20 January, causing several severe-weather-related incidents (mainly due to the snow) that have resulted in more casualties and damage. Several prefectures (15) were affected, from Aomori southward to Kyoto, where the worst affected is the Niigata prefecture (central-northern Honshu island).
• Media report, as of 4 February, 35 fatalities, of whom 12 are across the Niigata prefecture alone. The other most affected prefectures are Akita with seven fatalities and Yamagata with five fatalities. In addition, media also report 393 injured people (including 42 in the Niigata prefecture alone) and 14 damaged houses across the affected area.
• Over the next 24 hours, no more snowfall is forecast over northern and central Japan. More snowfall is forecast over northern and central Japan starting from 5 February.