Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for PENHA-26 in Philippines from 04 Feb 2026 00:00 UTC to 06 Feb 2026 12:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for PENHA-26

in Philippines

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone PENHA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID	TC 1001255
Name	PENHA-26
From - To	04 Feb - 06 Feb
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	74 km/h Tropical storm
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (05 Feb 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Philippines)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS JTWC	74 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF	94 km/h	0.8 m	1051 mm	0.5
GFS	86 km/h	0.8 m	394 mm	0.5
ECMWF	76 km/h	0.8 m	456 mm	0.5

Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.

Virtual OSOCC

Meteo assessment

Satellite products

Analytical products

Philippines - Tropical storm TWO (ECHO 09 Feb 2026)Wed, 04 Feb 2026 09:56

A new tropical depression named TWO ("Basyang" in the Philippines) formed over the Philippine Sea on 3 February late in the evening (UTC) and started moving west toward the southern Philippines. On 4 February at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located offshore approximately 670 km east of the coast of northern Mindanao island, with maximum sustained winds of 56 km/h.
On the forecast track, TWO is expected to make landfall over the eastern coast of northern Mindanao island on 5 February early in the afternoon (UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h (tropical storm). After that, it is forecast to pass over the southern Visayas islands (central Philippines) on 6 February very early in the morning as a tropical depression.
Heavy rainfall, with locally very heavy rainfall, is forecast over the southern and central Philippines starting from 5 February for 72 hours.

Philippines - Tropical storm PENHA, update (ECHO 10 Feb 2026)Thu, 05 Feb 2026 12:17

Tropical Storm PENHA, known in the Philippines as “Basyang,” is moving westward toward the northeastern coast of Mindanao. At 6.00?UTC on 5?February, the system was located about 230?km east of Hinatuan, Surigao?del?Sur province (northeastern Mindanao).
According to official Philippine media, mandatory evacuations have been ordered in Tandag City, Surigao?del?Sur, and classes and work have been suspended throughout the Caraga region.
PENHA is expected to make landfall late in the morning of 5?February along the southeastern coast of the Caraga region. The storm will then track across northern Mindanao and the southern part of Negros Island between 5?–?7?February. After that, PENHA is forecast to weaken and dissipate near Palawan Island (western Philippines).
For the next 48?hours, very heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and high waves are forecast across eastern and northern Mindanao, the Visayas, and Palawan.

Philippines - Tropical depression PENHA, update (ECHO 11 Feb 2026)Fri, 06 Feb 2026 12:08

Tropical depression PENHA made landfall over northern Mindanao on 5?February, then moved northwestward and approached southern Bohol Island on 6?February. At 06:00?UTC on 6?February the centre was located in the vicinity of Bilar city, Bohol, in the Central Visayas region.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reports that 5 847 people have been displaced and more than 6 000 others affected in the Caraga and Central Visayas regions.
PENHA is expected to continue moving northwest, crossing the islands of Cebu, Negros and Panay between 6 and 7?February; after that it could dissipate over the northern Sulu Sea.
For the next 24?hours, moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast, particularly over the Visayas, the Negros Island Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga and central-western Philippines.

Philippines - Tropical depression PENHA, update (ECHO 14 Feb 2026)Mon, 09 Feb 2026 11:48

The passage of the tropical depression PENHA between 4 and 6 February over the southern Philippines caused casualties and damage.
PENHA made landfall over northern Mindanao, Bohol, Cebu, Negros and Panay Islands and dissipated over the west Philippines Sea on 7 February as a tropical depression.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), as of 7 February, three people died, 455 640 people have been affected, and a total of 35 535 remain displaced, with 11 519 in 206 evacuation centres.
For the next 48 hours, more rainfall is forecast over the Philippines.

Philippines - Tropical depression PENHA, update (ECHO 15 Feb 2026)Tue, 10 Feb 2026 11:24

Following the passage of Tropical Depression PENHA, which crossed southern-central Philippines from 5–7?February, and the additional impact of a shear line, the humanitarian situation is worsening.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), as of 10?February seven people died (six in Northern Mindanao and one in Caraga), 645 612 people across six regions were affected, and more than 86 000 individuals displaced , of whom almost 60 000 are staying in 438 evacuation centres.
For the next 48?hours, most of central and southern Philippines can expect cloudy skies with moderate to heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Detailed event map. European Union, 2026. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

WEEKLY DISASTER UPDATE 2 – 8 Feb 2026 2/9/2026 3:49:00 PM.

REGIONAL SUMMARY: During the sixth week of 2026, a total of 23 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, and wind-related hazards, affecting Indonesia and the Philippines. In Indonesia

...(more)

Philippines: Flash update: No. 1 – Tropical Cyclone Penha – 5 February.. 2/5/2026 9:48:00 AM.

Attachments OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA , Tropical Cyclone PENHA has intensified into a tropical storm while over the Philippine Sea east of Mindanao. As of 0900H UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Cyclone PENHA has been located based on all a

...(more)

Green notification for tropical cyclone PENHA-26. Population affected .. 2/4/2026 10:40:00 PM.

Philippines - Tropical storm TWO (ECHO 04 Feb 2026) Wed, 04 Feb 2026 09:56 A new tropical depression named TWO ("Basyang" in the Philippines) formed over the Philippine Sea on 3 February late in the evening (UTC) and started moving west tow

...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Analytical products

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), WMO (1), INFORM (2), (1),

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