Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAKE-20
in Australia

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200108012907
2020010800 06S BLAKE 010 01 225 12 SATL 040
T000 207S 1197E 035
T012 219S 1194E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.9S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 119.6E.
08JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
0620010318 128S1181E 20
0620010400 131S1189E 20
0620010406 134S1197E 25
0620010412 138S1205E 25
0620010418 144S1210E 25

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.9S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 119.6E.
08JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
66
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING UNDER A REGION OF WEAKENING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET BASED
ON BANDING SEEN IN A 072052Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A
071800Z OBSERVATION WEST OF THE CURRENT POSITION IN PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA WITH A PRESSURE OF 996 MB. TC 06S REMAINS IN A REGION OF

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200108012907
2020010800 06S BLAKE 010 01 225 12 SATL 040
T000 207S 1197E 035
T012 219S 1194E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.9S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 119.6E.
08JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
0620010318 128S1181E 20
0620010400 131S1189E 20
0620010406 134S1197E 25
0620010412 138S1205E 25
0620010418 144S1210E 25
0620010500 149S1211E 30
0620010506 151S1211E 30
0620010512 153S1212E 30
0620010518 156S1216E 35
0620010600 161S1221E 45
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010700 183S1217E 40
0620010706 187S1212E 35
0620010712 195S1210E 35
0620010718 198S1206E 35
0620010800 207S1197E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.9S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 119.6E.
08JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
66
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING UNDER A REGION OF WEAKENING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET BASED
ON BANDING SEEN IN A 072052Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A
071800Z OBSERVATION WEST OF THE CURRENT POSITION IN PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA WITH A PRESSURE OF 996 MB. TC 06S REMAINS IN A REGION OF
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FUNCTIONING AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 06S. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WEAKENING DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THE REMANTS OF TC 06S ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES
ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 072100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200107192845
2020010718 06S BLAKE 009 01 230 05 SATL 030
T000 198S 1206E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 209S 1200E 035
T024 223S 1200E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.3S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 072100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.3S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 120.5E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200107192845
2020010718 06S BLAKE 009 01 230 05 SATL 030
T000 198S 1206E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 209S 1200E 035
T024 223S 1200E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.3S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 120.5E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//
0620010318 128S1181E 20
0620010400 131S1189E 20
0620010406 134S1197E 25
0620010412 138S1205E 25
0620010418 144S1210E 25
0620010500 149S1211E 30
0620010506 151S1211E 30
0620010512 153S1212E 30
0620010518 156S1216E 35
0620010600 161S1221E 45
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010700 183S1217E 40
0620010706 187S1212E 35
0620010712 195S1210E 35
0620010718 198S1206E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.3S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 120.5E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING UNDER A
REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED WITHIN ITS
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET BASED ON LOW LEVEL
TURNING OBSERVED ON THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR SYSTEM, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY A 071800Z OBSERVATION EAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION IN
MANDORA, AUSTRALIA WITH A PRESSURE OF 991 MB. TC 06S REMAINS IN A
REGION OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FUNCTIONING AS
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 06S. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WEAKENING DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 071500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200107141830
2020010712 06S BLAKE 008 01 195 08 SATL RADR SYNP 025
T000 195S 1210E 035 R034 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 204S 1204E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 218S 1200E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.4S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 071500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.4S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.8S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 120.9E.

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200107141830
2020010712 06S BLAKE 008 01 195 08 SATL RADR SYNP 025
T000 195S 1210E 035 R034 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 204S 1204E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 218S 1200E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.4S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.8S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 120.9E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
0620010318 128S1181E 20
0620010400 131S1189E 20
0620010406 134S1197E 25
0620010412 138S1205E 25
0620010418 144S1210E 25
0620010500 149S1211E 30
0620010506 151S1211E 30
0620010512 153S1212E 30
0620010518 156S1216E 35
0620010600 161S1221E 45
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010700 183S1217E 40
0620010706 187S1212E 35
0620010712 195S1210E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.4S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.8S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 120.9E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVECTION
WRAPPING UNDER A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS OBSCURED THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET BASED ON
LOW LEVEL TURNING OBSERVED ON THE BROOME AND PORT HEDLAND 512 KM
RADAR SYSTEMS, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE POSITION. SUPPORTED BY
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35
KTS) BY PGTW AND KNES AND A 071240Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A
SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 35 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC 06S REMAINS IN
A REGION OF HIGH (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST IS FUNCTIONING AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM FOR TC 06S. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE RADAR STATIONS SHOW THAT TC 06S
IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WEAKENING DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z AND
080900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200107081131
2020010706 06S BLAKE 007 01 230 06 SATL SYNP 025
T000 187S 1212E 035 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 196S 1206E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 208S 1200E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 224S 1199E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.8S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200107081131
2020010706 06S BLAKE 007 01 230 06 SATL SYNP 025
T000 187S 1212E 035 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 196S 1206E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 208S 1200E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 224S 1199E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.8S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.4S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 121.1E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
//
0620010318 128S1181E 20
0620010400 131S1189E 20
0620010406 134S1197E 25
0620010412 138S1205E 25
0620010418 144S1210E 25
0620010500 149S1211E 30
0620010506 151S1211E 30
0620010512 153S1212E 30
0620010518 156S1216E 35
0620010600 161S1221E 45
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010700 183S1217E 40
0620010706 187S1212E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.8S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.4S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 121.1E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
UNDER FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION WHICH OBSCURES THE PRECISE CENTER OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DUE TO THIS, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
35 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30-
35 KTS) BY PGTW AND KNES. TC 06S IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF AUSTRALIA IN
A REGION OF HIGH (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC
06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LOCATED TO
THE WEST. FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STEERING RIDGE, TC
06S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LANDFALL ANTICIPATED TO THE
EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA JUST AFTER TAU 12. AS IT TRANSITS,
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, LEADING TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST,
WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200107015751
2020010700 06S BLAKE 006 01 200 06 SATL 050
T000 185S 1216E 040 R034 090 NE QD 035 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 194S 1210E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 206S 1205E 035
T036 221S 1202E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.4S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.4S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.6S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.1S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200107015751
2020010700 06S BLAKE 006 01 200 06 SATL 050
T000 185S 1216E 040 R034 090 NE QD 035 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 194S 1210E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 206S 1205E 035
T036 221S 1202E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.4S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.6S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.1S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 121.5E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50
NM SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
//
0620010318 128S1181E 20
0620010400 131S1189E 20
0620010406 134S1197E 25
0620010412 138S1205E 25
0620010418 144S1210E 25
0620010500 149S1211E 30
0620010506 151S1211E 30
0620010512 153S1212E 30
0620010518 156S1216E 35
0620010600 161S1221E 45
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010700 185S1216E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.4S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.6S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.1S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 121.5E.
07JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50
NM SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
070010Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS WEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC 06S IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STEERING RIDGE TOWARD AN ANTICIPATED LANDFALL TO
THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS LAND INTERACTION OFFSETS THE
ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS),
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND A
FAVORABLE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. AFTER LANDFALL AROUND
TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND DISSIPATE
BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 062100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200106191940
2020010618 06S BLAKE 005 01 200 05 SATL 050
T000 179S 1218E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 055 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 189S 1212E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 199S 1206E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 212S 1202E 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 229S 1202E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.9S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200106191940
2020010618 06S BLAKE 005 01 200 05 SATL 050
T000 179S 1218E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 055 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 189S 1212E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 199S 1206E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 212S 1202E 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 229S 1202E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.9S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.2S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.9S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 121.6E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 23
NM WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
//
0620010318 128S1181E 20
0620010400 131S1189E 20
0620010406 134S1197E 25
0620010412 138S1205E 25
0620010418 144S1210E 25
0620010500 149S1211E 30
0620010506 151S1211E 30
0620010512 153S1212E 30
0620010518 156S1216E 35
0620010600 161S1221E 45
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010606 167S1222E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010612 174S1220E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
0620010618 179S1218E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.9S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.2S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.9S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 121.6E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 23
NM WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RADAR IMAGERY, SURROUNDING GROUND BASED OBSERVATIONS AND A 061618Z
ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS
IS HEDGED BETWEEN PGTW, APRF AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A 061709Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. TC
06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STEERING RIDGE TOWARD AN EVENTUAL, ANTICIPATED
LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OFFSETS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND A FAVORABLE
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE OVER WATER
ENVIRONMENT IS SO FAVORABLE, THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER LANDFALL AROUND
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 061500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.4S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.4S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.4S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.4S 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.8S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.6S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 121.9E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES, RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, AND 061047Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE SENSOR
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS BASED ON EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT INDICATED HIGHER, 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS TO THE
WEST OF CENTER OFFSHORE. TC 06S IS TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ROBUST. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STEERING RIDGE TOWARD AN EVENTUAL,
ANTICIPATED LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
INLAND AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LAND INTERACTION
WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OFFSETS THE
ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS),
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE OVER
WATER ENVIRONMENT IS SO FAVORABLE, THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.7S 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.7S 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.7S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.7S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.8S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 122.1E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES AND 060533Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE SATELLITE
SENSOR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW, KNES AND
APRF AS WELL AS 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN A PARTIAL 060146Z
ASCAT PASS. TC 06S HAS TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS NOW THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. TC 06S WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARD AN EVENTUAL, ANTICIPATED
LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER TAU 36.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED,
SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER, A PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL TRACK
OVER LAND, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200106013249
2020010600 06S SIX 002 01 110 06 SATL 050
T000 159S 1219E 035 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 167S 1220E 040 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 180S 1216E 045 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 192S 1209E 045 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 203S 1201E 040 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 232S 1202E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.7S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.7S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.0S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.7S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.0S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.2S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.3S 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.2S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 121.9E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121
NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
A LARGE RAINBAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 052214Z WINDSAT 37
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SPIRAL BANDING. BECAUSE NEITHER IMAGE
SOURCE IS PARTICULARLY DEFINITIVE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE. TC 06S IS TRACKING BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. ONCE THAT OCCURS, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD. PRIOR TO TAU 48, TC 06S WILL MAKE LANDFALL. SHORTLY
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN
POLEWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
LAND INTERACTION CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
DESPITE FALLING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD, THE CYCLONE MAY REMAIN
INTACT OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200106013249
2020010600 06S SIX 002 01 110 06 SATL 050
T000 159S 1219E 035 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 167S 1220E 040 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 180S 1216E 045 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 192S 1209E 045 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 203S 1201E 040 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 232S 1202E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.7S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.0S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.2S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.3S 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.2S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 121.9E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
0620010318 128S1181E 20
0620010400 131S1189E 20
0620010406 134S1197E 25
0620010412 138S1205E 25
0620010418 144S1210E 25
0620010500 149S1212E 30
0620010506 152S1213E 30
0620010512 154S1212E 30
0620010518 157S1213E 35
0620010600 159S1219E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 052100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.8S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.8S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.8S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.8S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.0S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.7S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 121.3E.
05JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LLC, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 35 KT
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY
FIXES OF T1.5-T2.0 (25-30 KTS) DUE TO A 051322Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
WHICH SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KT WINDS TO THE WEST. WITH ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 06S WILL TRACK ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN
RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AROUND
TAU 48, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWARD AS TC 06S STARTS
ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE AND
ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. DESPITE DISSIPATING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD AT TAU 72, A
REMNANT CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO LINGER BEYOND TAU 72 AS TC 06S MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ONLY 100 NM AT TAU 72, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIR DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 052100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200105192154
2020010518 06S SIX 001 01 170 06 SATL 045
T000 160S 1213E 035 R034 000 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 168S 1215E 040 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 178S 1216E 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 189S 1210E 040 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 200S 1202E 035 R034 130 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 227S 1194E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.8S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 200105192154
2020010518 06S SIX 001 01 170 06 SATL 045
T000 160S 1213E 035 R034 000 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 168S 1215E 040 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 178S 1216E 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 189S 1210E 040 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 200S 1202E 035 R034 130 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 227S 1194E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.8S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.8S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.0S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.7S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 121.3E.
05JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
0620010318 128S1181E 20
0620010400 131S1189E 20
0620010406 134S1197E 25
0620010412 138S1205E 25
0620010418 144S1210E 25
0620010500 149S1212E 30
0620010506 152S1213E 30
0620010512 154S1212E 30
0620010518 160S1213E 35
NNNN

>