Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico

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Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 171432
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2019

RAYMOND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH 25-KT WINDS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED AND THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA OF MINIMUM
PRESSURE DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION, OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION AT ISLA SOCORRO WHICH IS
LOCATED NEAR RAYMOND INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT.

THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 14 KT, BUT THIS MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED.
RAYMOND'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE
DEVELOPING TROUGH WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE REMNANTS OF RAYMOND AND THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH WEST OF THE PENINSULA WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.

THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON RAYMOND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ABOUT THE REMNANT LOW, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER
FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 171432 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2019

...RAYMOND DEGENERATED INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 111.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH (26
KM/H) AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, RAYMOND'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 171432
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 111.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 171432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

...RAYMOND DEGENERATED INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 111.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Raymond was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 111.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26
km/h) and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight or
Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond's remnants are expected to
move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to dissipate late Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on this
system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 170838 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2019

...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...RAIN HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 111.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
TODAY, AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, RAYMOND OR ITS REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 170838 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2019

ALTHOUGH RAYMOND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER, THE CONVECTION IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. A RECENT
ASCAT-C OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 30 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALREADY
INCREASED OVER THE CYCLONE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUITE STRONG WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT, WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED AND RAYMOND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 36
TO 48 HOURS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.

RAYMOND IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 8 KT. A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH NEAR AND WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD STEER RAYMOND NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED TODAY. AFTER THAT TIME, RAYMOND OR ITS REMNANTS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AS IT IS
ABSORBED INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.

REGARDLESS OF RAYMOND'S STATUS WHEN IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA,
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 170837
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 170838
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Raymond Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

Although Raymond continues to produce clusters of deep convection
to the east and northeast of its center, the convection is not well
organized and there is no evidence of banding features. A recent
ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the circulation has become elongated
from north to south and that the maximum winds have decreased to
around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
lowered to 30 kt. Southwesterly vertical wind shear has already
increased over the cyclone and the shear is expected to become
quite strong within the next 24 hours. As a result, weakening is
anticipated and Raymond is likely to become a remnant low later
today or tonight. The circulation is forecast to dissipate in 36
to 48 hours when it moves near Baja California.

Raymond is now moving northward around 8 kt. A deep-layer
trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula
should steer Raymond northward to north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed today. After that time, Raymond or its remnants are
forecast to turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it is
absorbed into the aforementioned trough.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula over the next day or two. These rains could
cause life-threatening flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 170838
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Raymond Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...RAIN HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 111.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Raymond
was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 111.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected
today, and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight
and Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are
expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula Sunday night or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Raymond is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night or early
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 170234 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2019

RAYMOND'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE ORGANIZATION SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY, WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING IN A
RAGGED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/5. A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NEAR AND WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS BECOMING THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE FOR
RAYMOND, AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H. AFTER THAT,
RAYMOND OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS INCREASING OVER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, AND IT SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THUS, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND RAYMOND IS NOW
EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 18-24 H, A REMNANT LOW BY 36 H,
AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 48 H. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES
NOT RETURN TO THE CYCLONE, ALL OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF RAYMOND'S STATUS WHEN IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA,
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 170234 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2019

...RAYMOND SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 112.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY, AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, RAYMOND OR
ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY, AND IT SHOULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 170234
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Raymond's cloud pattern has continued to lose organization since
the last advisory, with the remaining convection now occurring in a
ragged band to the east of the center. The initial intensity has
been reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/5. A developing
mid-latitude deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja
California peninsula is becoming the main steering influence for
Raymond, and this feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn
northward and accelerate during the next 12-24 h. After that,
Raymond or its remnants should turn north-northwestward to
northwestward as it becomes absorbed into the mid-latitude system.

Southwesterly vertical shear is increasing over the tropical
cyclone, and it should increase further during the next couple of
days. Thus, continued weakening is forecast, and Raymond is now
expected to become a depression in 18-24 h, a remnant low by 36 h,
and dissipate completely after 48 h. If organized convection does
not return to the cyclone, all of these events could occur earlier
than currently forecast.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 18.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 23.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 26.1N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 170233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.7N 111.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.7N 111.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.1N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 112.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 170234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

...RAYMOND SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 112.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 112.1 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the north and a faster forward speed are expected later
tonight or early Sunday, and a turn toward the north-northwest is
expected Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond or
its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Raymond is
expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday, and it should
degenerate into a remnant low Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 162036 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2019

THE COULD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE
CIRCULATION IS STILL THERE, BUT BECOMING ELONGATED. IN FACT, THE
CONVECTION NO LONGER SHOWS A CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND IT HAS THE
APPEARANCE OF A LINEAR CLOUD BAND. DVORAK ESTIMATES ALSO REFLECT
SOME WEAKENING, AND ON THIS BASIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
SET AT 40 KT.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO MARKEDLY INCREASE SOON AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OR LOW DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THIS BELLIGERENT SHEAR PATTERN CALLS FOR WEAKENING, AND RAYMOND
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR EVEN DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT NEAR LOW BY TIME THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM THEN
SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE DEVELOPING MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE WEAKENING IS DEPICTED BY GLOBAL MODELS WHICH CLEARLY SHOW THE
VERTICAL FRACTURE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
CENTER MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST WEST OF THE PENINSULA.

RAYMOND HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OR DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
RAYMOND SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LATER PORTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE
VERY WEAK OR PROBABLY DISSIPATING.

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 162036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

The could pattern has deteriorated this afternoon, and the
circulation is still there, but becoming elongated. In fact, the
convection no longer shows a cyclonic curvature and it has the
appearance of a linear cloud band. Dvorak estimates also reflect
some weakening, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been
set at 40 kt.

The shear is forecast to markedly increase soon as a mid-level
trough or low develops just west of the Baja california peninsula.
This belligerent shear pattern calls for weakening, and Raymond
is forecast to become a tropical depression or even degenerate into
a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours. The system then
should become absorbed by the developing mid-to upper level trough.
The weakening is depicted by global models which clearly show the
vertical fracture of the cyclone with the mid-level center moving
northeastward over mainland Mexico and the weakening low-level
center moving north-northwestward just west of the Peninsula.

Raymond has been moving little or drifting northward during the past
several hours. However, most of the track guidance indicate that
Raymond should move northward with an increase in forward speed
embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough
west of the Baja California peninsula. The later portion of the
track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be
very weak or probably dissipating.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.5N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 162035 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2019

...RAYMOND ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 111.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. RAYMOND
HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OR DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, RAYMOND OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY, AND IT SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 162035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 162035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

...RAYMOND ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 111.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.8 West. Raymond
has been moving little or drifting northward during the past few
hours. However, the cyclone should begin a northward track with
an increase in forward speed later tonight and Sunday. On the
forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or
early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and Raymond is expected to become a tropical
depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula late Sunday, and it should degenerate into a remnant low
on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 161432 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2019

RAYMOND IS A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. IT APPEARS THAT RAYMOND HAS ALREADY
PEAKED IN INTENSITY, AND GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING.
RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR EVEN A REMNANT
NEAR LOW BY TIME THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IN ABOUT 2 OR 3 DAYS, RAYMOND OR
ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING MID-TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE PENINSULA.

RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT
8 KT. SOON, THE CYCLONE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OR LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS FLOW
PATTERN SHOULD STEER RAYMOND ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK UNTIL IT
BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME, IT SHOULD MOVE MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATER
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BE VERY WEAK OR PROBABLY DISSIPATING.

REGARDLESS OF RAYMOND'S STATUS WHEN IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA,
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 161432 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2019

...RAYMOND FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 111.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, RAYMOND
OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AND RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 161432
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Raymond is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center located on
the western edge of the convection as indicated by microwave data.
Although the cloud pattern has become less organized since
yesterday, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an
initial intensity of 45 kt. It appears that Raymond has already
peaked in intensity, and given that the shear over the cyclone will
increase significantly, the NHC forecast calls for weakening.
Raymond is forecast to be a tropical depression or even a remnant
near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion of the
Baja California in about 36 hours. In about 2 or 3 days, Raymond or
its remnants are expected to be absorbed by a developing mid-to
upper level trough just west of the peninsula.

Raymond appears to be moving toward the north or 355 degrees at
8 kt. Soon, the cyclone will be embedded within the southerly flow
ahead of the developing trough or low mentioned above. This flow
pattern should steer Raymond on a general northward track until it
becomes a shallow cyclone. After that time, it should move move
toward the north-northwest with the low-level flow. The later
portion of the track forecast is highly uncertain given that the
cyclone will be very weak or probably dissipating.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.8N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 20.0N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 22.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 161432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

...RAYMOND FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 111.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.7 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue trough Sunday. On the forecast track, Raymond
or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening is
forecast and Raymond is expected to become a tropical depression
when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late
Sunday and should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 161431
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 111.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.2N 110.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 160845 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2019

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE
CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS. THE ASCAT-B INSTRUMENT REVEALED 35-40 KT WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, BUT IT LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45
KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK CI NUMBER.

THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAYMOND TO STRENGTHEN APPEARS TO BE
CLOSING AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE
CYCLONE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 25 KT LATER
TODAY, AND RAYMOND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TONIGHT. THE SHIPS
MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY BELLIGERENT
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A CUT OFF LOW TO THE
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
3 DAYS, HOWEVER A 72-H FORECAST POSITION IS PROVIDED FOR
CONTINUITY.

RAYMOND JOGGED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING, BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING VERY SOON. A TURN
TO THE NORTH SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY, AND A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS PREDICTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CYCLONE
IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST
AND A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE RAYMOND WEAKENS, IT IS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 160845
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Infrared satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data show that the
center of Raymond has become exposed to the west of the main
convective mass. The ASCAT-B instrument revealed 35-40 kt winds
to the northeast of the center, but it likely missed the area of
strongest winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45
kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak CI number.

The window of opportunity for Raymond to strengthen appears to be
closing as west-southwesterly shear is already increasing over the
cyclone. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt later
today, and Raymond should begin to weaken by tonight. The SHIPS
model indicates that the shear will become very belligerent
in 36 to 48 hours when the cyclone approaches a cut off low to the
west of the Baja peninsula. Raymond is forecast to weaken to a
depression within a couple of days when it nears the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, and should degenerate into a remnant
low shortly thereafter. The cyclone is likely to dissipate within
3 days, however a 72-h forecast position is provided for
continuity.

Raymond jogged west-northwestward earlier this evening, but it is
expected to resume a north-northwestward heading very soon. A turn
to the north should occur later today, and a north to north-
northeastward motion is predicted tonight and Sunday as the cyclone
is steered between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest
and a ridge to the southeast. Once Raymond weakens, it is
expected to turn northwestward within the low-level steering flow.
The more westward initial position of Raymond has required a
westward adjustment of the track but the new official forecast is
again close to the center of the guidance envelope.

Regardless of the cyclone's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the system will likely spread northward
into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this
weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 21.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 26.8N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 160843 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2019

...RAYMOND MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 110.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. RAYMOND
JOGGED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RAYMOND IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT NEARS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY AND

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 160843
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

...RAYMOND MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 110.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 110.6 West. Raymond
jogged west-northwestward overnight, but it is expected to resume a
motion toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to
the north is expected later today, and a northward to north-
northeastward motion should then continue through Sunday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is expected to be near
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or
early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast
to begin Saturday night and continue through Monday. Raymond is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression when it nears the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday and
should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 160843
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.2N 110.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.8N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 160400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 109.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 109.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.6N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.3N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.3N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.4N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.0N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 109.9W.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1138
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND
170400Z. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 160402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.11.2019

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 109.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.11.2019 0 15.1N 109.6W 1004 36
1200UTC 16.11.2019 12 16.1N 110.9W 1002 32
0000UTC 17.11.2019 24 17.7N 110.9W 1000 33
1200UTC 17.11.2019 36 19.6N 109.9W 1000 34
0000UTC 18.11.2019 48 21.9N 109.2W 1001 34
1200UTC 18.11.2019 60 24.8N 109.4W 1004 30
0000UTC 19.11.2019 72 30.6N 112.1W 1005 16
1200UTC 19.11.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.6N 77.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.11.2019 0 32.6N 77.0W 1007 35
1200UTC 16.11.2019 12 31.1N 79.1W 1004 39
0000UTC 17.11.2019 24 30.9N 77.6W 995 48
1200UTC 17.11.2019 36 31.7N 74.5W 993 49
0000UTC 18.11.2019 48 33.1N 72.8W 990 41
1200UTC 18.11.2019 60 36.9N 69.4W 986 42
0000UTC 19.11.2019 72 43.1N 67.8W 982 43
1200UTC 19.11.2019 84 46.6N 67.3W 983 39
0000UTC 20.11.2019 96 49.0N 65.6W 989 33
1200UTC 20.11.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 24.2N 62.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.11.2019 120 24.2N 62.7W 1010 26
1200UTC 21.11.2019 132 24.7N 60.7W 1007 32
0000UTC 22.11.2019 144 24.7N 59.5W 1004 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160401

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 160401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.11.2019

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 109.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.11.2019 15.1N 109.6W WEAK
12UTC 16.11.2019 16.1N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2019 17.7N 110.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2019 19.6N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2019 21.9N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2019 24.8N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2019 30.6N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.6N 77.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.11.2019 32.6N 77.0W WEAK
12UTC 16.11.2019 31.1N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2019 30.9N 77.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.11.2019 31.7N 74.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2019 33.1N 72.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2019 36.9N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2019 43.1N 67.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.11.2019 46.6N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2019 49.0N 65.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 24.2N 62.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.11.2019 24.2N 62.7W WEAK
12UTC 21.11.2019 24.7N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.11.2019 24.7N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160401

>

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 160400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 109.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 109.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.6N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.3N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.3N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.4N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.0N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 109.9W.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1138
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 160235 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2019

RAYMOND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A PAIR OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES CONFIRM
THAT WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE, DISRUPTING THE
INNER-CORE FROM GETTING WELL ESTABLISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

THE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE THE STORM REMAINS IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HELP TO CONTINUE THESE LARGE
BURSTS OF CONVECTION, AND AS A RESULT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ON SATURDAY, A STRONG MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING A STEADY INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS
RAYMOND, WITH THE SHEAR VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50 KT BY 48
HOURS. AS A RESULT, RAYMOND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY.
ONE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WHETHER OR NOT RAYMOND
WILL BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RAYMOND
TO BE A WEAKENING 35 KT TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES, BUT THESE
WINDS MAY BE TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA. SUBSEQUENTLY, RAYMOND
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DUE TO THE SHEAR. FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ABOVE SCENARIO, WITH SOME

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 160234 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2019

...RAYMOND MAINTAINS INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 109.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAYMOND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 160235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Raymond has changed little in organization over the past several
hours, with bursts of deep convection continuing mainly over the
eastern semicircle. A pair of recent microwave overpasses confirm
that westerly shear continues to impact the cyclone, disrupting the
inner-core from getting well established. The initial intensity is
kept at 45 kt for this advisory and is in agreement with the latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.

The moderate shear over the cyclone is forecast to continue through
tonight while the storm remains in a moist environment and over warm
water. These conditions will likely help to continue these large
bursts of convection, and as a result some slight strengthening is
expected to occur. On Saturday, a strong mid- to upper- level trough
is forecast to dig southeastward to the west of Baja California.
This will bring a steady increase in southwesterly shear across
Raymond, with the shear values possibly approaching 50 kt by 48
hours. As a result, Raymond should begin to weaken by late Saturday.
One uncertainty in the intensity forecast is whether or not Raymond
will bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula. The official forecast calls for Raymond
to be a weakening 35 kt tropical storm as it approaches, but these
winds may be to the east of the peninsula. Subsequently, Raymond
is expected to become a remnant low due to the shear. Forecast
guidance is in good agreement on the above scenario, with some
variations in timing. Regardless of the cyclone's status, rainfall
associated with Raymond will likely spread northward into southern
portions of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

Raymond is now moving north-northwest at 9 kt around a mid-level
ridge to the east of the cyclone. A turn to the north then perhaps
north-northeast is expected Saturday and Saturday night as the
system rounds the northwestern periphery of the ridge and becomes
under the influence of the southwesterly winds associated with the
approaching trough. Once the system loses its deep convection in a
few days, it should turn to the northwest in the low-level flow. The
latest official forecast is near the previous one and the clustered
consensus track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.6N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.3N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 20.3N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 22.4N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 26.0N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 160234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

...RAYMOND MAINTAINS INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 109.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 109.8 West. Raymond is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
north is expected on Saturday, and this general motion is expected
to continue for a couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Raymond is expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast through early Saturday,
followed by a gradual weakening trend beginning by Saturday night.
Raymond is then expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 160234
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.6N 110.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.3N 110.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N 109.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.4N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.0N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 109.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 109.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.6N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.2N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.0N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.0N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.1N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
152200Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 109.3W.
15NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1189
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 152036 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2019

RAYMOND CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASCAT-B DATA AT 1624
UTC SHOWED THAT RAYMOND'S CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-40 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THAT DATA, ASSUMING THAT THE ASCAT
SLIGHTLY UNDER-SAMPLED THE STRONGEST WINDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY,
BUT A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY. RAYMOND
IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 H, BUT SEVERAL OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STILL HAVE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. THAT SAID, THERE
IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAYMOND'S STRUCTURE
WHEN, OR IF, IT REACHES THE COAST OF THE PENINSULA. REGARDLESS OF
THE CYCLONE'S STATUS, RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.

RAYMOND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AS RAYMOND
MOVES BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 152036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Raymond continues to move toward the north-northwest several hundred
miles south of the Baja California peninsula. ASCAT-B data at 1624
UTC showed that Raymond's circulation has become a little better
defined with maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial intensity has
been increased to 45 kt based on that data, assuming that the ASCAT
slightly under-sampled the strongest winds.

The tropical storm is in a moderate shear environment which will
likely limit its development potential. Most of the intensity
guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is possible today,
but a general weakening trend should begin by late Saturday. Raymond
is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 h, but several of
the dynamical models now suggest that the cyclone will still have
tropical characteristics when it nears the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. That said, there
is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding Raymond's structure
when, or if, it reaches the coast of the peninsula. Regardless of
the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.

Raymond should continue moving generally north-northwestward through
tonight. A turn to the north is forecast on Saturday as Raymond
moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula. The track guidance has converged on top of the previous
NHC forecast track and virtually no change was made to the official
forecast, which lies between the corrected consensus aids HCCA and
FSSE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 14.7N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 152035 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2019

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 109.4W
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING BY EARLY SUNDAY. RAYMOND IS
PREDICTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 152035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 109.4W
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the north with a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated
on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is
expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is
possible tonight, followed by weakening by early Sunday. Raymond is
predicted to degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 152035 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.4W

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 152035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/MELLO

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 151559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.11.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 8.7N 95.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2019 0 8.7N 95.1W 1011 26
0000UTC 16.11.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 20E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 108.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2019 0 13.9N 108.7W 1005 29
0000UTC 16.11.2019 12 15.1N 109.6W 1003 34
1200UTC 16.11.2019 24 16.1N 110.9W 1001 32
0000UTC 17.11.2019 36 17.5N 111.1W 999 34
1200UTC 17.11.2019 48 19.4N 110.3W 999 37
0000UTC 18.11.2019 60 21.7N 109.6W 1000 37
1200UTC 18.11.2019 72 23.7N 109.7W 1004 31
0000UTC 19.11.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 32.2N 77.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.11.2019 24 30.4N 79.5W 1002 40
0000UTC 17.11.2019 36 31.4N 78.0W 992 48
1200UTC 17.11.2019 48 31.5N 75.2W 989 49
0000UTC 18.11.2019 60 33.7N 72.7W 983 40
1200UTC 18.11.2019 72 37.0N 70.2W 978 51
0000UTC 19.11.2019 84 43.3N 67.8W 976 47
1200UTC 19.11.2019 96 47.8N 68.2W 984 39
0000UTC 20.11.2019 108 50.5N 70.2W 989 30
1200UTC 20.11.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151558

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 151445 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2019

THE CYCLONE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL SHEARED FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER,
RECENT MICROWAVE AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS BETTER EMBEDDED WITHIN ITS CONVECTIVE
CANOPY. LATE-ARRIVING ASCAT-C DATA EARLY THIS MORNING HAD UNFLAGGED
35 KT PEAK WINDS AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS
TO HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
INCREASED TO 40 KT, AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND.

THE LARGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN RAYMOND'S FORECAST IS HOW ITS
STRUCTURE WILL EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ASCAT-C DATA SHOWED
THAT RAYMOND'S CIRCULATION WAS STILL RATHER ELONGATED OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER MORE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MAY BE
REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF A NEW CENTER IS IN FACT
CONSOLIDATING TO THE EAST, RAYMOND SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY, BUT IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS ELONGATED, LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. ALL OF THE TYPICALLY-RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SLIGHT STRENGTHENING, AND THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT, SO WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED BEFORE RAYMOND
NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY, AND
IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME.

RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 151445
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

The cyclone located several hundred miles south of the Baja
California peninsula has continued to get better organized over the
past few hours. The system is still sheared from the west, however,
recent microwave and first-light visible imagery indicate that the
center of the cyclone is better embedded within its convective
canopy. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data early this morning had unflagged
35 kt peak winds and the overall structure of the cyclone appears
to have improved since then. The initial intensity is therefore
increased to 40 kt, and the system is now Tropical Storm Raymond.

The largest source of uncertainty in Raymond's forecast is how its
structure will evolve during the next 12 hours. ASCAT-C data showed
that Raymond's circulation was still rather elongated overnight,
however more recent microwave data indicate that the center may be
reforming closer to the deep convection. If a new center is in fact
consolidating to the east, Raymond should have an opportunity to
strengthen today, but if the cyclone remains elongated, little
intensification is likely. All of the typically-reliable dynamical
intensity guidance shows at least slight strengthening, and the NHC
forecast has been increased accordingly. Stronger upper-level winds
are likely after that, so weakening is still expected before Raymond
nears the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday, and
it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time.

Raymond is moving north-northwestward and this general motion is
forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north or
north-northeast is likely on Saturday as Raymond moves between a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.
There has been little change in the track guidance since the last
forecast and the new NHC forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory. It is worth noting that if Raymond's center
reforms to the east, as shown by the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models, an
adjustment in that direction will likely be required to the track
forecast, while a broader system will more likely move farther west.

Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into
southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next
few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 151442
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 151443 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2019

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 108.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
SUNDAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 151443
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 108.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
through today. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is
forecast by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated
during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to occur by
Sunday, and the system is predicted to degenerate into a remnant
low by late Sunday or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern portions of
Baja California Sur. This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150845 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2019

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION
OVERNIGHT. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION,
HOWEVER, THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MASS. EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KT, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT 36 H IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT
REMAINS OVER SSTS OF 28-29C AND IN GENERALLY LOW WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY, AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS AID. BY 48 HOURS, A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
AND CUTS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE
INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OR 335/5 KT. A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150845
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Recent satellite imagery indicates that there has been a slight
increase in convective banding associated with the depression
overnight. The deep convection has increased and become a little
better organized over the southeastern portion of the circulation,
however, the center remains near the northwestern edge of the
primary convective mass. Earlier ASCAT data and the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates all support an
intensity of 30 kt, so the initial wind speed is held at that value.

The depression has about 36 h in which to strengthen while it
remains over SSTs of 28-29C and in generally low wind shear
conditions. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm later today, and the early portion of the intensity
forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid. By 48 hours, a
significant increase in southwesterly shear is predicted by the
global models as a large mid- to upper-level trough digs southward
and cuts off to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The
increase in shear should cause weakening, and the system is forecast
to degenerate into a remnant low when it nears the southern portion
of the Baja peninsula in about 72 hours. Dissipation should occur
shortly thereafter as the shear increases further.

Satellite fixes indicate that the depression is moving north-
northwestward or 335/5 kt. A northwestward to north-northwestward
motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge should
continue during the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone
should turn north-northeastward around the aforementioned trough to
the west of the Baja California peninsula. As the system weakens
and becomes vertically shallow by 72 hours, it is likely to turn
northward or north-northwestward before dissipating. The track
guidance has trended a little faster this cycle, and the new NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but it remains near the
TVCE and HCCA consensus models.

Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into
southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next
few days. These rains could cause in life-threatening flash
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 13.5N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 23.0N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 150844 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
200 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H),
AND THIS MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SUNDAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 150843
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 108.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 108.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.4N 109.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 110.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 150844
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E
was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 108.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h),
and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
during the next day or so. A turn to the north-northeast is
expected to occur by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.
Weakening is forecast to occur by Sunday, and the system is
predicted to degenerate into a remnant low by late Sunday or early
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash
floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.11.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 108.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2019 0 12.8N 108.3W 1006 23
1200UTC 15.11.2019 12 13.9N 108.6W 1005 29
0000UTC 16.11.2019 24 15.0N 109.7W 1002 38
1200UTC 16.11.2019 36 16.0N 111.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 17.11.2019 48 17.5N 111.8W 999 34
1200UTC 17.11.2019 60 19.5N 110.9W 997 40
0000UTC 18.11.2019 72 21.7N 110.1W 999 35
1200UTC 18.11.2019 84 24.4N 109.4W 1002 34
0000UTC 19.11.2019 96 27.1N 110.3W 1005 23
1200UTC 19.11.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 32.2N 77.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.11.2019 24 32.2N 77.6W 1007 33
1200UTC 16.11.2019 36 30.9N 79.1W 1001 44
0000UTC 17.11.2019 48 31.2N 77.8W 991 51
1200UTC 17.11.2019 60 31.2N 75.0W 989 48
0000UTC 18.11.2019 72 33.6N 73.1W 985 41
1200UTC 18.11.2019 84 36.6N 71.2W 980 42
0000UTC 19.11.2019 96 42.2N 70.7W 976 48
1200UTC 19.11.2019 108 45.4N 71.3W 986 36
0000UTC 20.11.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150358

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 150358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.11.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 108.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2019 12.8N 108.3W WEAK
12UTC 15.11.2019 13.9N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2019 15.0N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2019 16.0N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2019 17.5N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2019 19.5N 110.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2019 21.7N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2019 24.4N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2019 27.1N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 32.2N 77.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.11.2019 32.2N 77.6W WEAK
12UTC 16.11.2019 30.9N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.11.2019 31.2N 77.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.11.2019 31.2N 75.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2019 33.6N 73.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.11.2019 36.6N 71.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.11.2019 42.2N 70.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2019 45.4N 71.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150358

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150232 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 PM MST THU NOV 14 2019

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA HAS NOW DEVELOPED SUFFICENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE TWENTIETH ONE OF THE
2019 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING TWO
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS, ONE NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER,
AND THE OTHER IN BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT, BASED ON A 2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION
FROM SAB.

THE DEPRESSION HAS A DAY OR TWO TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
WARM WATERS, IN RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS, AND IN A LOW WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, HOWEVER, A PRONOUNCED
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR SHOULD
END THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.
THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER WHEN IT MOVES INTO AN EXTREMELY
HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
HCCA CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT TIME, A FASTER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 150232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
800 PM MST THU NOV 14 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 108.4W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H),
AND THIS MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 150232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 108.4W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 108.4W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 110.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.2N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 108.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150232
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019

Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure system
that NHC has been monitoring well south of the Baja California
peninsula has now developed sufficently organized deep convection
to be classified a tropical depression, the twentieth one of the
2019 eastern North Pacific season. The depression is producing two
areas of thunderstorms, one near and east of the low-level center,
and the other in bands over the northeastern quadrant. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a 2.0 Dvorak classification
from SAB.

The depression has a day or two to strengthen while it remains over
warm waters, in relatively moist conditions, and in a low wind
shear environment. In about 48 hours, however, a pronounced
increase in southwesterly shear and progressively drier air should
end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a weakening trend.
The cyclone will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days and
dissipate shortly thereafter when it moves into an extremely
hostile upper-level environment. The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the high end of the guidance and is in best agreement with the
HCCA consensus model.

The depression is moving slowly north-northwestward in the flow on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A northwestward
to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster pace should
occur during the next couple of days as the ridge strengthens and
remains in place. After that time, a faster north-northeastward
motion is expected as a large mid- to upper-level low digs to the
west of the Baja California peninsula. Once the system becomes
weak and shallow, a turn back to the left seems likely in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast follows the TVCE and HCCA
consensus models and brings the remnants of the depression near the
southern Baja California peninsula in about 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 13.0N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 14.7N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 23.2N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>