Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KYARR-19
in India, Yemen, Somalia, India, Yemen,

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 312100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191031195143
2019103118 04A KYARR 029 02 205 02 SATL 045
T000 172N 0597E 030
T012 160N 0586E 030
T024 146N 0572E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.0N 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.6N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 59.4E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED SOUTH-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 312100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.0N 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.6N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 59.4E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1026 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
EVIDENT IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 311620Z METOP-A ASCAT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191031195143
2019103118 04A KYARR 029 02 205 02 SATL 045
T000 172N 0597E 030
T012 160N 0586E 030
T024 146N 0572E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.0N 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.6N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 59.4E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z
IS 14 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103018 185N 609E 50
0419103018 185N 609E 50
0419103100 181N 603E 40
0419103106 177N 599E 35
0419103112 174N 598E 35
0419103118 172N 597E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.0N 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.6N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 59.4E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EVIDENT
IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 311620Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A
SMALL PATCH OF 25-30 KNOT BARBS EMBEDDED IN THE ONLY REMAINING
CONVECTION 100NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH
OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW, WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING TC 04A. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 04A WILL
TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 311800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 31 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 04 KTS DURING PAST 06 HRS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 31 ST OCTOBER, 2019 OVER
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 59.9 DEG E, ABOUT 1380 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(43003), 620 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316) AND 380 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT
24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND FURTHER INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
SUBSEQUENT 06 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/01 AT 00 UTC 16.4 N / 59.2 E MAX WIND
25 KTS DEPRESSION (.)

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA(PRONOUNCED AS MAHA)
OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA
MOVED NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 10 KTS DURING PAST
06 HOURS, CROSSED LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND LAY CENTERED AT
1200 HRS UTC OF 31 ST OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 72.4 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA ABOUT 190 KM NORTHNORTHEAST
OF AMINIDIVI (43311) AND 400 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOZHIKODE
(43314). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. THEN, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT 06 HOURS AND THEREAFTER
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/01 AT 00 UTC 14.3 N / 71.2 E MAX WIND
65 KTS SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/01 AT 12 UTC 15.3 N/ 69.9 E MAX WIND
70 KTS VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 70 DEG E :CYCLONIC 55/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 8 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 8 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 64 DEG E:ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 64 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E : CYCLONIC 55/65 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 60 DEG E:CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 65/70 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 311500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191031125934
2019103112 04A KYARR 028 02 210 04 SATL 030
T000 174N 0597E 035 R034 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 164N 0588E 035 R034 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 150N 0575E 035 R034 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 135N 0559E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.4N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 311500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.4N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191031125934
2019103112 04A KYARR 028 02 210 04 SATL 030
T000 174N 0597E 035 R034 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 164N 0588E 035 R034 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 150N 0575E 035 R034 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 135N 0559E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.4N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.5N 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 59.5E.
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103018 185N 609E 50
0419103018 185N 609E 50
0419103100 181N 603E 40
0419103106 177N 599E 35
0419103112 174N 597E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.4N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.5N 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 59.5E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-3.5 (30-35
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, IF NOT
SOONER. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 04A WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 311219

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 31 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR VER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 5 KTS DURING PAST 06
HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 HRS UTC OF 31 ST OCTOBER, 2019 OVER
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE
60.0 DEG E, ABOUT 1360 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA),
650 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND FURTHER
INTO A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 06 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/31 AT 21 UTC 16.7 N / 59.1 E MAX WIND 30 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/01 AT 09 UTC 15.1 N/ 57.3 E MAX WIND 20 KTS
DEPRESSION (.)

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA(PRONOUNCED AS M\U6A3DAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA MOVED
NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 7 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY
CENTERED AT 0900 HRS UTCOF 31 ST OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE
12.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 72.8 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA ABOUT 130 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
AMINIDIVI (LAKSHADWEEP), 200 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KAVARATTI
(LAKSHADWEEP),100KM NORTHEASTOF CHETLAT(LAKSHADWEEP)AND 340 KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOZHIKODE (KERALA).IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. THEN, IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT 06 HOURS AND
THEREAFTER MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA DURINGNEXT24 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/31 AT 21 UTC 13.9 N / 71.4 E MAX WIND 65 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/01 AT 09 UTC 15.2 N/ 69.9 E MAX WIND 70 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 70 DEG E : CYCLONIC 60/70 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E :6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E:CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : CYCLONIC 65/75 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 65/70 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E:CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N:CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 311040
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 31 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 7 KTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF 31 ST OCTOBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 60.1 DEG E, ABOUT
1350 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003), 640 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
SALALAH (41316) AND 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
DURING NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND FURTHER INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
SUBSEQUENT 06 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO
50 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/31 AT 18 UTC 17.0 N / 59.1 E MAX WIND 30 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/01 AT 06 UTC 15.8 N/ 57.7 E MAX WIND 20 KTS
VERY DEPRESSION (.)

THE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA(PRONOUNCED AS MMAHA) OVER LAKSHADWEEP AND
ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 9 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 31
ST OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 72.8 DEG E
OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA ABOUT
90 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AMINIDIVI (43311), 150 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF KAVARATTI (43337), 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINICOY (43369)
AND 330 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOZHIKODE (43314). IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS
DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS AND THEREAFTER MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING 24 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO
50 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/31 AT 18 UTC 13.6 N / 71.7 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/01 AT 06 UTC 14.7 N/ 70.6 E MAX WIND 70 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORKM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 70 DEG E : CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E :6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E:CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : CYCLONIC 60/65 KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 65/70 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N:CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 310900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 31 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 07 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS, WEAKENED INTO A
CYCLONIC STORM AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 31ST OCTOBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 60.2 DEG E, ABOUT 1330 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MUMBAI (43003) (MAHARASHTRA), 670 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH
(41316) (OMAN)
AND 320 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288) (OMAN). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 3 DAYS. IT
IS VERY
LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 18 HOURS AND
FURTHER INTO A
DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 06 HOURS. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO
55 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA. (.)

THE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER LAKSHADWEEP
AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 09
KNOTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 31ST OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE
11.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 72.8 DEG E OVER LAKSHADWEEP AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA ABOUT 40 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AMINIDIVI (43311), 110 KM
NORTHNORTHEAST OF KAVARATTI (43337), 350 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
MINICOY (43369)
AND 325 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOZHIKODE (43314). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS DURING NEXT 12
HOURS. THEN,
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EMERGE INTO EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA
DURING SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS AND THEREAFTER MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS.
IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS
OVER
LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS..(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA.

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 70 DEG E : CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E :6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS TO THE
S OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 66 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 60/70 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191031073407
2019103106 04A KYARR 027 02 225 06 SATL 020
T000 177N 0599E 035 R034 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 169N 0591E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 157N 0580E 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 141N 0566E 030
T048 126N 0550E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.9N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.7N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.1N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.6N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 59.7E.
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103018 185N 609E 50
0419103018 185N 609E 50
0419103100 181N 603E 40
0419103106 177N 599E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.9N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.7N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.1N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.6N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 59.7E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
174 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH, BUT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF, THE
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS). FAIR
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ARE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT, MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINAL. FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST, TC 04A WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE
INTENSITY TO FALL BELOW 35 KTS BY TAU 36, IF NOT SOONER. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO STRONG
AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND
010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 310300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191031012643
2019103100 04A KYARR 026 02 230 05 SATL 045
T000 182N 0605E 040 R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 175N 0597E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 165N 0588E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 153N 0575E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 138N 0558E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 111N 0517E 035 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 092N 0485E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.5N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 310300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.5N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.5N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191031012643
2019103100 04A KYARR 026 02 230 05 SATL 045
T000 182N 0605E 040 R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 175N 0597E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 165N 0588E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 153N 0575E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 138N 0558E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 111N 0517E 035 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 092N 0485E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.5N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.5N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.3N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.8N 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.1N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.2N 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 60.3E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103018 185N 609E 50
0419103018 185N 609E 50
0419103100 182N 605E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.5N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.5N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.3N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.8N 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.1N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.2N 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 60.3E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 302322Z SSMIS 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED BUT
BROAD CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A 302138Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
FAIR OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A IS
TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA AND IS FORECASTED TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
200 NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 04A SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU
96 AS IT TRACKS OVER SOMALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 302100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191030195134
2019103018 04A KYARR 025 02 225 06 SATL 040
T000 185N 0609E 050 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 178N 0600E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 169N 0591E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 157N 0580E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 143N 0565E 040 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 116N 0525E 035 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 093N 0480E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 302100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 60.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.8N 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.9N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191030195134
2019103018 04A KYARR 025 02 225 06 SATL 040
T000 185N 0609E 050 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 178N 0600E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 169N 0591E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 157N 0580E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 143N 0565E 040 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 116N 0525E 035 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 093N 0480E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 60.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.8N 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.9N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.7N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.3N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.6N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 9.3N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 60.7E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103018 185N 609E 50
0419103018 185N 609E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 60.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.8N 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.9N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.7N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.3N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.6N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 9.3N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 60.7E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 301420Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED BUT BROAD CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A 301420Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA AND IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 150 NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 04A SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER SOMALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 301800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 30 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 05
KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS, LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 30TH
OCTOBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 61.5 DEG E, ABOUT 1190 KM WEST
OF MUMBAI (43003) (MAHARASHTRA), 830 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH
(41316) (OMAN) AND 330 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288) (OMAN).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 4 DAYS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY 1800 UTC
OF 30TH OCTOBER AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY 0600 UTC OF 31ST
OCTOBER, 2019.. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA.. (.)

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING MALDIVES
AREA AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
13 KNOTS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM \U2018MAHA\U2019
(PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING
MALDIVES AREA AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 30TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 74.1 DEG E, ABOUT 540 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MALE (43555)
(MALDIVES), 130 KM NORTHEAST OF MINICOY (43369) (LAKSHADWEEP), 240 KM
SOUTHEAST OF KAVARATTI (43337) (LAKSHADWEEP) AND 320 KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THIRUVANANTHAPURAM (43371) (KERALA). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS
DURING NEXT 36 HOURS AND
THEN EMERGE INTO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY 0600UTC OF TOMORROW OVER
LAKSHADWEEP AREA.(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA.

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 72 DEG E : CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E :6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS TO THE
S OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 66 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 301500
GLOBAL MARITIME 302040
DATE 30-10-2019 SPL GMDSS BULLETIN-23 301500
FROM:-MARINE FORECAST DIVISION, DGM, NEW DELHI
TO: DGM (ISSD), NEW DELHI
------------------------------------- --------------------
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 30 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 05
KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS, LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 30TH
OCTOBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 61.5 DEG E, ABOUT 1190 KM WEST
OF MUMBAI (43003) (MAHARASHTRA), 830 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH
(41316) (OMAN) AND 330 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288) (OMAN).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 4 DAYS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY 1800 UTC
OF 30TH OCTOBER AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY 0600 UTC OF 31ST
OCTOBER, 2019.. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA.. (.)

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING MALDIVES
AREA AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
13 KNOTS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM \U2018MAHA\U2019
(PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING
MALDIVES AREA AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 30TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 74.1 DEG E, ABOUT 540 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MALE (43555)
(MALDIVES), 130 KM NORTHEAST OF MINICOY (43369) (LAKSHADWEEP), 240 KM
SOUTHEAST OF KAVARATTI (43337) (LAKSHADWEEP) AND 320 KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THIRUVANANTHAPURAM (43371) (KERALA). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS
DURING NEXT 36 HOURS AND
THEN EMERGE INTO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY 0600UTC OF TOMORROW OVER
LAKSHADWEEP AREA.(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA.

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 72 DEG E : CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E :6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS TO THE
S OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 66 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 301500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191030132133
2019103012 04A KYARR 024 02 225 06 SATL 060
T000 189N 0613E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 183N 0605E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD
060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 176N 0596E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 168N 0586E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 155N 0571E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 126N 0534E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 103N 0489E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 61.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 301500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 61.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 61.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.3N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191030132133
2019103012 04A KYARR 024 02 225 06 SATL 060
T000 189N 0613E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 183N 0605E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 176N 0596E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 168N 0586E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 155N 0571E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 126N 0534E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 103N 0489E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 61.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 61.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.3N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.6N 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.8N 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.5N 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.6N 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 10.3N 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 61.1E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103006 193N 617E 80
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
0419103012 189N 613E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 61.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 61.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.3N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.6N 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.8N 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.5N 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.6N 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 10.3N 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 61.1E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 301145Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, REVEALS
A DEFINED BUT BROAD CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A
IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA AND IS
FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH
MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING
EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND POTENTIALLY DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 04A SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER SOMALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z,
310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE)
WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 301200
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 30 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 04 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS, LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 30TH OCTOBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 61.8 DEG
E, ABOUT 1160 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) (MAHARASHTRA), 870
KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316) (OMAN) AND 330 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MASIRAH (41288) (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 4
DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY
1800 UTC OF 30TH OCTOBER AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY 0600 UTC OF
31ST OCTOBER, 2019. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO
90KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 18 UTC 19.0 N / 61.3 E MAX WIND 59 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2019/10/31 AT 06 UTC 18.5 N / 60.6 E MAX WIND 43 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER MALDIVES-COMORIN AREAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH
A SPEED OF 19 KNOTS AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 30TH
OCTOBER, 2019 OVER MALDIVES- COMORIN AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA
NEAR LATITUDE 8.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 75.0 DEG E, ABOUT 450 KM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MALE (43555) (MALDIVES), 200 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MINICOY (43369) (LAKSHADWEEP), 380 KM SOUTHEAST OF KAVARATTI (43337)
(LAKSHADWEEP) AND 220 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THIRUVANANTHAPURAM (43371) (KERALA). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS DURING NEXT 36 HOURS AND
THEN EMERGE INTO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A
CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA.

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 18 UTC 10.0 N / 73.5 E MAX WIND 32 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

24 HRS VALID 2019/10/31 AT 06 UTC 11.6 N / 72.1 E MAX WIND 48 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 72 DEG E : CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E :6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS TO THE
S OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 66 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 40/50 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 6 D EG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE 03 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
-----------------------------
TOO:-30/1730 EF

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 300900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 30 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR MOVED FURTHER WESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 04 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS, LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 30TH OCTOBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 62.1 DEG
E, ABOUT 1130 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) (MAHARASHTRA), 910
KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316) (OMAN) AND 350 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MASIRAH (41288) (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 4
DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY
1800 UTC OF 30TH OCTOBER AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY 1200 UTC OF
31ST OCTOBER, 2019. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 15 UTC 19.3 N / 61.5 E MAX WIND 70 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/31 AT 03 UTC 18.9 N / 60.7 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER MALDIVES- COMORIN AREAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND
LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 30TH OCTOBER, 2019 OVER
MALDIVESCOMORIN AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA NEAR LATITUDE 8.0 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 75.0 DEG E, ABOUT 450 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MALE
(43555) (MALDIVES), 200 KM EASTSOUTHEAST OF MINICOY (43369)
(LAKSHADWEEP), 380 KM SOUTHEAST OF KAVARATTI (43337) (LAKSHADWEEP)
AND 220 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THIRUVANANTHAPURAM (43371) (KERALA). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS
DURING NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN EMERGE INTO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24
HOURS AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS
BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 71 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 71 DEG E:W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:ANTI-CYCLONIC 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 50/75 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 62 DEG E:CYCLONIC 35/50 KTS (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 4 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: VARIABLE 03 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 88 DEG N: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 90 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: : 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 90 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
-------------------------------
TOO:-30/1400 EF

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 300900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191030074143
2019103006 04A KYARR 023 02 230 05 SATL 045
T000 192N 0618E 090 R064 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
065 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 188N 0611E 075 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD
050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 182N 0603E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD
030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 174N 0594E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 163N 0583E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 136N 0549E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 114N 0508E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 300900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.8N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191030074143
2019103006 04A KYARR 023 02 230 05 SATL 045
T000 192N 0618E 090 R064 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 188N 0611E 075 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 182N 0603E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 174N 0594E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 163N 0583E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 136N 0549E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 114N 0508E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.8N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.2N 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.4N 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.3N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.6N 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 11.4N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 61.6E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103006 192N 618E 90
0419103006 192N 618E 90
0419103006 192N 618E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.8N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.2N 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.4N 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.3N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.6N 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 11.4N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 61.6E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF ASYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 300306Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, REVEALS A DEFINED OBLONG MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES AND A 300502Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 86 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
FAIR OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 04A IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE SAUDI
PENINSULA AND IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24
DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND
POTENTIALLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 04A SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER SOMALIA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05A (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 300418

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 30 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER WESTCENTRAL AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 04 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS, WEAKENED INTO A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0000 HRS UTC OF 30TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 62.3 DEG E, ABOUT 1100 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA), 930 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 370 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RE-CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND MOVE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS SOCOTARA ISLAND DURING NEXT 4 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
WEAKEN INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY 1800 UTC OF 30 TH OCTOBER AND
INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY 1200 UTC OF 31ST OCTOBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO
95 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 12 UTC 19.4 N / 61.6 E MAX WIND 70 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/31 AT 00 UTC 19.0 N / 61.0 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS
AND ADJOINING COMORIN AREA HAS CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION OVER
MALDIVES- COMORIN AREAS AND LAY CENTERED AT 00 HRS UTC OF 30TH
OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 76.2 DEG E ABOUT
390 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MALE (MALDIVES-43555),390 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MINICOY (LAKSHADWEEP-43369). IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS
ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC
20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 60/65 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS TO THE S
OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 6 D EG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE 03 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 300300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191030012556
2019103000 04A KYARR 022 01 270 05 SATL 025
T000 196N 0622E 100 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD
105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 194N 0616E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 189N 0608E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 181N 0600E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 173N 0591E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 145N 0562E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 119N 0517E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 107N 0485E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 300300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.4N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191030012556
2019103000 04A KYARR 022 01 270 05 SATL 025
T000 196N 0622E 100 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 194N 0616E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 189N 0608E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 181N 0600E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 173N 0591E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 145N 0562E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 119N 0517E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 107N 0485E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.4N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.9N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.1N 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.3N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.5N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.9N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 10.7N 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 62.0E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND
310300Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419103000 196N 622E 100
0419103000 196N 622E 100
0419103000 196N 622E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.4N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.9N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.1N 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.3N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.5N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.9N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 10.7N 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 62.0E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO TO ELONGATE AND
STRETCH ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
WARMED UP, AN INDICATION OF WEAKENING. THE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME
TOTALLY OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 292338Z SSMIS 37GHZ
COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100KTS IS BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0/95KTS TO
T5.5/102KTS AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. TC 04A IS IN THE COL
BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) AND IS
SWITCHING SLOWLY TO THE WESTERN STR FOR STEERING AND, SHOULD NOW
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW DIMINISHES WITH MORE RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF DRY AIR FROM
THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC KYARR WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE HORN OF
AFRICA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 OVER LAND.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 292100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191029194120
2019102918 04A KYARR 021 01 290 03 SATL 010
T000 196N 0627E 105 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD
060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 196N 0622E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 193N 0615E 080 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD
060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 187N 0606E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD
040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 180N 0599E 060 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 161N 0579E 045 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 131N 0542E 040 R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 110N 0498E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 292100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191029194120
2019102918 04A KYARR 021 01 290 03 SATL 010
T000 196N 0627E 105 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 196N 0622E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 193N 0615E 080 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 187N 0606E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 180N 0599E 060 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 161N 0579E 045 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 131N 0542E 040 R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 110N 0498E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.3N 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.7N 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.0N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.1N 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.1N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 11.0N 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 62.6E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.3N 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.7N 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.0N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.1N 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.1N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 11.0N 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 62.6E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRETCHING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES, AN INDICATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A PARTLY OBSCURED 10-NM EYE AND
OVERALL EIR SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION (AND WIND RADII) ARE
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 291702Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T5.5/102KTS AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR INTENSITY. TC 04A HAS
REACHED THE COL BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STR) AND IS FORECAST TO SWITCH VERY SLOWLY TO THE WESTERN STR FOR
STEERING. THE WESTERN STR WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 120. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48
DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND THE
INFLUX OF DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC KYARR WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA BY TAU 114 AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 120
OVER LAND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 291500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191029132111
2019102912 04A KYARR 020 01 300 02 SATL 030
T000 195N 0630E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 110 SE QD
085 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 196N 0626E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 194N 0619E 100 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 190N 0611E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD
050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 183N 0601E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD
030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 170N 0587E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 143N 0555E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 118N 0514E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 291500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191029132111
2019102912 04A KYARR 020 01 300 02 SATL 030
T000 195N 0630E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 196N 0626E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 194N 0619E 100 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 190N 0611E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 183N 0601E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 170N 0587E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 143N 0555E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 118N 0514E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.4N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.0N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.3N 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.0N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.3N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 11.8N 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 62.9E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102912 195N 630E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.4N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.0N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.3N 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.0N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.3N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 11.8N 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 62.9E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A WEAK EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 291158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED LOWER AT
105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, CONSISTENT WITH A 291230Z CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. TC 04A IS TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE WESTERN STR WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36
DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND
POTENTIALLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 291222

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 29 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER WESTCENTRAL AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 3 KTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 HRS
UTC OF 29 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 63.1 DEG E, ABOUT 1020 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA), 980 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 460 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30 TH OCTOBER MORNING, RE-CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF
SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE MORNING OF 30
TH OCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY THE MORNING
OF 31 ST OCTOBER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/29 AT 21 UTC 19.6 N / 62.3 E MAX WIND 90 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 09 UTC 19.4 N/ 61.5 E MAX WIND 75 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDING UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS PERSISTS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND
ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO
DEEP DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1) E OF 70 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)W OF 70 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 88 DEG E: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 70/75 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:SE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)W OF 87 DEG E TO S OF 5 DEG N: SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 17 DEG N: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 17 DEG N TO W OF 87 DEG E: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: VARIABLE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E:N/NW-LY 05 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: VARIBALE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 290900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191029080221
2019102906 04A KYARR 019 01 305 03 SATL 030
T000 193N 0632E 115 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 110 SE QD
085 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 195N 0628E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 196N 0622E 100 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 195N 0616E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD
060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 192N 0609E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 030 SE QD
030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 178N 0591E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD
060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 154N 0566E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 125N 0526E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 290900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.5N 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 290900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 29 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 05 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS, WEAKENED INTO AN EXTREMELY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AND
NORTH ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 29 TH OCTOBER, 2019
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 63.4 DEG E, ABOUT 990 KM WEST
OF MUMBAI (43003), 1010 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316) (OMAN)
AND 500 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288) (OMAN). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30TH OCTOBER MORNING,
RE-CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF
ADEN OFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY 0000 UTC
OF 30TH OCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY 1200 UTC
OF 31ST OCTOBER (.)
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 HPA. THE SEA
CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/29 AT 15 UTC 19.3 N / 62.7 E MAX WIND 100 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 03 UTC 19.4 N/ 61.9 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THEWELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDING UPTO MID?TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS PERSISTS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP MALDIVES AREAS
AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.IT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEPISLANDS AND
INTENSIFY INTO DEEP DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1) E OF 70 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)W OF 70 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 88 DEG E: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 70/75 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:SE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)W OF 87 DEG E TO S OF 5 DEG N: SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 17 DEG N: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 17 DEG N TO W OF 87 DEG E: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: VARIABLE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E:N/NW-LY 05 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: VARIBALE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENMT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 290900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191029080221
2019102906 04A KYARR 019 01 305 03 SATL 030
T000 193N 0632E 115 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 195N 0628E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 196N 0622E 100 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 195N 0616E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 192N 0609E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 178N 0591E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 154N 0566E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 125N 0526E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.5N 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.5N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.2N 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.8N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.4N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 12.5N 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 63.1E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 193N 632E 115
0419102906 193N 632E 115
0419102906 193N 632E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.5N 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.5N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.2N 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.8N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.4N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 12.5N 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 63.1E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 19NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 290525Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE EYEWALL OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED LOWER AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 5.5-6.0 (102-115 KNOTS) AND A 290523Z CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 112 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 290150Z SMAP IMAGE INDICATED
108 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS (1-MINUTE AVERAGE, 40KM RESOLUTION), WHICH
GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT. TC 04A IS TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR)
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, THE WESTERN STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DEGRADE WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO
INCREASING EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND POTENTIALLY DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. FOLLOWING TAU 36, THE MODELS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST, DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 290300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191029015534
2019102900 04A KYARR 018 01 300 06 SATL 020
T000 191N 0635E 125 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 194N 0632E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 196N 0627E 120 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 196N 0621E 115 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD
060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 194N 0614E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD
030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 184N 0599E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD
060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 161N 0575E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD
060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 136N 0541E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD
050 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 290300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 63.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.4N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191029015534
2019102900 04A KYARR 018 01 300 06 SATL 020
T000 191N 0635E 125 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 194N 0632E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 196N 0627E 120 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 196N 0621E 115 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 194N 0614E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 184N 0599E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 161N 0575E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 136N 0541E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 63.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.4N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6N 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.6N 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4N 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.4N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.1N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.6N 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 63.4E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102900 191N 635E 125
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 63.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.4N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6N 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.6N 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4N 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.4N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.1N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.6N 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 63.4E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SYMMETRIC BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 20 NM EYE WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF STRONG OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP AND FURTHER REFINED BY A TIGHTER 282147Z AMSR2 37GHZ MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5 (127 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 121 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PROVIDING FAVORABLE DYNAMICS TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, AT WHICH TIME IT WILL REACH A COL BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THAT IS THE CURRENT PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND A STR TO THE WEST. TC 04A WILL THEN TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 36 TO 115 KTS AS THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE STORM BEGINS TO EXHAUST THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AFTER TAU 36, THE INTENSITY WILL DROP MORE DRASTICALLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE IMPINGED WHEN THE STR TO THE WEST TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. FOLLOWING TAU 48, THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 282100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191028205153
2019102818 04A KYARR 017 01 310 05 SATL 060
T000 188N 0640E 130 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 130 SE QD
080 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 192N 0636E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 195N 0632E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 196N 0625E 125 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 195N 0618E 120 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD
040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 190N 0605E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD
040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 171N 0584E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD
030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 148N 0554E 070 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 065 SE QD
025 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 282100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.2N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191028205153
2019102818 04A KYARR 017 01 310 05 SATL 060
T000 188N 0640E 130 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 192N 0636E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 195N 0632E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 196N 0625E 125 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 195N 0618E 120 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 190N 0605E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 171N 0584E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 148N 0554E 070 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 065 SE QD 025 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.2N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.5N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.5N 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.0N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.1N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.8N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 63.9E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.2N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.5N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.5N 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.0N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.1N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.8N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 63.9E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC
SIGNATURE WITH COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEEP AND
ANNULAR-LOOKING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 26-NM EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED EIR SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING A COL BETWEEN TWO RIDGES IN AN AREA WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW WITH A VERY STRONG
POLEWARD BIAS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 24, IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COL AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE STR TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS TIME, IT MAY
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) BUT BY TAU 48 SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SECONDARY
STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, TEMPERED ONLY
BY DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES DUE TO UPWELLING GENERATED BY
THE CYCLONES NEAR-QS MOTION, WILL CAUSE TC 04A TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 24. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND THE INFLOW OF COLD DRY AIR FROM THE MIDDLE EAST DESERT
AREA WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND BY TAU 120, WILL
BE REDUCED TO 70KTS AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF OF ADEN. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STORM MOTION DURING THE QS PHASE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 281800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 28 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 04 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 1200 HRS UTC OF 28TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 64.3 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 880 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA), 1110 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 610 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30TH OCTOBER RE-CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS
DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY
OF A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM TILL THE MORNING HOURS OF 29TH OCTOBER AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO
145 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 HPA. AT 1200 UTC OF
28TH OCTOBER, (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/29 AT 00 UTC 18.8 N / 63.6 E MAX WIND 120 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/29 AT 1200 UTC 18.9 N/ 63.0 E MAX WIND 110 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
OFF SRI LANKA COAST NOW LIES ASLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL OFF SOUTH SRILANKA COAST. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCU-
ATION EXTENDS UPTO MIDTROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE MARKED OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP^ MALDIVES AREAS
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1) E OF 70 DEG E: CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS (.)
2)W OF 70 DEG E: NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 66 DEG E:CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)


ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 100/120 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1) N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 90/100 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 12 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 12 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 68 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.5 (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 82 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 82 DEG E: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA:1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)W OF 87 DEG E TO S OF 5 DEG N: SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 84 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 89 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 84 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 89 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E:N/NW-LY 05 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: VARIBALE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 83 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)S OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 83 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)S OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
----------------------------------
TOO:-28/2330 EF

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 281540
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 28 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 04 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 1200 HRS UTC OF 28TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 64.3 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 880 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA), 1110 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 610 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30TH OCTOBER RE-CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS
DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY
OF A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM TILL THE MORNING HOURS OF 29TH OCTOBER AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO
145 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 HPA. AT 1200 UTC OF
28TH OCTOBER, (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/29 AT 00 UTC 18.8 N / 63.6 E MAX WIND 120 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/29 AT 1200 UTC 18.9 N/ 63.0 E MAX WIND 110 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF
SRI
LANKA COAST NOW LIES AS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL
OFF SOUTH SRILANKA COAST. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO
MIDTROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED
OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN
SEA
AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP MALDIVES AREAS DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 48
HOURS

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1) E OF 70 DEG E: CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS (.)
2)W OF 70 DEG E: NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 66 DEG E:CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)


ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 100/120 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1) N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 90/100 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 12 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 12 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 68 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.5 (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 82 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 82 DEG E: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA:1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)W OF 87 DEG E TO S OF 5 DEG N: SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 84 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 89 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 84 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 89 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E:N/NW-LY 05 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: VARIBALE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 83 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)S OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 83 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)S OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 281500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191028125413
2019102812 04A KYARR 016 01 300 04 SATL 015
T000 185N 0644E 130 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 130 SE QD
080 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 190N 0636E 125 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD
080 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 192N 0630E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 192N 0624E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 191N 0617E 105 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD
050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 185N 0605E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD
050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 169N 0583E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 147N 0552E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD
040 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 281500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191028125413
2019102812 04A KYARR 016 01 300 04 SATL 015
T000 185N 0644E 130 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 190N 0636E 125 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 192N 0630E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 192N 0624E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 191N 0617E 105 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 185N 0605E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 169N 0583E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 147N 0552E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.2N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.1N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.5N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.9N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.7N 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 64.2E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.2N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.1N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.5N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.9N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.7N 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 64.2E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
337 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 27 NM
ROUND EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 130 KT INTENSITY IS BETWEEN
A 280856Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 132 KTS AND A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS). EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
INTENSE SYSTEM. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), TOWARDS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THAT STR
AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST. JUST PRIOR TO TAU 36, THE STR TO THE WEST
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND CAUSE THE TRACK TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT, DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN,
REACHING ABOUT 75 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND GALWEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE SINCE THE USUAL
INTENSITY AIDS DO NOT FOLLOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND,
THEREFORE, THEIR INTENSITIES ARE UNLIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE.
THERE ARE TWO OUTLIERS THIS CYCLE, NAVGEM TO THE NORTH AND UKMET TO
THE EAST. THE REMAINING MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS LOW CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD BUT DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED MAKE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
HIGH. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 281120

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1100 UTC 28 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0600 HRS UTC OF 28TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 64.7 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 860 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA), 1130 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 660 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30TH OCTOBER AND RE-CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF
SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM TILL THE NIGHT OF
28TH OCTOBER AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO
145 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 HPA. AT 0600 UTC OF
28TH OCTOBER (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/28 AT 18 UTC 18.7 N / 63.9 E MAX WIND 120 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/29 AT 0600 UTC 18.9 N/63.3 E MAX WIND 110 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF
SRI
LANKA COAST NOW LIES AS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL
OFF SOUTH SRILANKA COAST. ASSOCIATED CYCLONICCIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
MIDTROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED
OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN
SEA
AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP MALDIVES AREAS DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 48
HOURS

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 62 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 75 DEG E TO 70 DEG E:NW/N-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NE-LY 10/15
KTS TO THE S OF 5 DEG N (.)
3)E OF 75 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 68 DEG E:CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 100/120 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 90/110 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)W OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/E-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 88 DEG N: SE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 90 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 280900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 28 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF THE 28 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 18.2
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 65.0 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT
830 KM WESTSOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 1160 KM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 690 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30TH OCTOBER, RE-CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF
SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM TILL 28TH OCTOBER
EVENING AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO
145 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/28 AT 15 UTC 18.7 N / 64.1 E MAX WIND 125 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/29 AT 03 UTC 18.9 N / 63.4 E MAX WIND 120 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
OFF SRI LANKA COAST NOW LIES ASLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL OFF SOUTH SRILANKA COAST. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCU-
ATION EXTENDS UPTO MIDTROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE MARKED OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP^ MALDIVES AREAS
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1) E OF 70 DEG E: CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS (.)
2)W OF 70 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF
57 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 68 DEG E:CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)


ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 100/110 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1) N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 90/100 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 68 DEG E TO N OF 12 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 68 DEG E TO N OF 12 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 68 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 6 DEG N: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N:SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)W OF 87 DEG E TO S OF 5 DEG N: SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: NE/E-LY 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E:N/NW-LY 05 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: VARIBALE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 280900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191028072829
2019102806 04A KYARR 015 01 280 06 SATL 015
T000 183N 0648E 130 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 125 SE QD
075 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 187N 0638E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 115 SE QD
080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 190N 0630E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 192N 0624E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 190N 0617E 100 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 184N 0604E 080 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD
040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 170N 0584E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD
030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 149N 0553E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD
040 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 280900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191028072829
2019102806 04A KYARR 015 01 280 06 SATL 015
T000 183N 0648E 130 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 125 SE QD 075 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 187N 0638E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 190N 0630E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 192N 0624E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 190N 0617E 100 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 184N 0604E 080 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 170N 0584E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 149N 0553E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.0N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.2N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.0N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.4N 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.0N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.9N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 64.5E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.0N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.2N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.0N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.4N 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.0N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.9N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 64.5E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
362 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 25 NM ROUND EYE IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE 130 KT INTENSITY IS JUST ABOVE A 280544Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 126 KTS AND BELOW A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KTS). A 280547Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS PROVIDES
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII. EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN INTENSE SYSTEM. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), TOWARDS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN
THAT STR AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST. AROUND TAU 36, THE STR TO THE WEST
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND THE TRACK WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THIS SHIFT IN
TRACK, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DIMINISHED OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF INTENSITY
TREND BECAUSE THE USUAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AIDS FAVOR THE RECURVE
SCENARIO AND ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD ENCOUNTER AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, WHICH FAVORS A POLEWARD TURN TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE
STR, THE BULK OF THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH 265 NM OF SPREAD IN
THAT GUIDANCE AT TAU 120, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 280411
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 28 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0000 HRS UTC OF THE 28 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE
18.1 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 65.4 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA,
ABOUT 790 KM WESTSOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 1200 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 740 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS OMAN COAST DURING NEXT +5 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM TILL 28TH OCTOBER
EVENING AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO
145 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/28 AT 12 UTC 18.6 N / 64.3 E MAX WIND 115 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/29 AT 00 UTC 18.9 N / 63.6 E MAX WIND 105 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN
SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA ON 30 TH OCTOBER AND IT IS LIKELY
TO BECOME MORE MARKED (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 62 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 75 DEG E TO 70 DEG E:NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 5 DEG N (.)
3)E OF 75 DEG E: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 68 DEG E:CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 100/105 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 90/100 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)W OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 88 DEG N: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N:SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 90 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 280300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191028013758
2019102800 04A KYARR 014 01 295 07 SATL 020
T000 182N 0655E 130 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 115 SE QD
100 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 186N 0643E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 190N 0634E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 191N 0628E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 191N 0622E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 184N 0606E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 174N 0589E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD
040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 155N 0561E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD
040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 280300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 65.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 65.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191028013758
2019102800 04A KYARR 014 01 295 07 SATL 020
T000 182N 0655E 130 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 186N 0643E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 190N 0634E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 191N 0628E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 191N 0622E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 184N 0606E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 174N 0589E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 155N 0561E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 65.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 65.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.1N 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.1N 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.4N 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.4N 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.5N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 65.2E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 135
0419102712 175N 668E 135
0419102712 175N 668E 135
0419102718 179N 662E 130
0419102718 179N 662E 130
0419102718 179N 662E 130
0419102800 182N 655E 130
0419102800 182N 655E 130
0419102800 182N 655E 130
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 65.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 65.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.1N 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.1N 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.4N 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.4N 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.5N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 65.2E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 272317Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T7.0 (140 KNOTS) AND A 272054Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 128 KNOTS. TC 04A
IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND
CONTINUES TO HAVE ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 04A WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
BEYOND TAU 48, A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 04A TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC
04A TO MAINTAIN NEAR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO VARYING
TRACK DISCREPANCIES. BY TAU 24, SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, SLOW TRACK SPEED INDUCING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY ERODE TC 04A, REDUCING
INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY AS PAST TAU 72 WITH ALL DYNAMIC MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM, NOW FAVORING THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
GUIDED BY THE SECOND STR. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK PAST TAU 48 BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 48
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 272100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 66.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 66.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.4N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 66.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 66.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.4N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.9N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.9N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.5N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.4N 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.6N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 65.9E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL
RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 271715Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS HEDGED
BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS)
AND A 271714Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 117 KNOTS. TC 04A IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND CONTINUES TO HAVE
ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 04A WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 04A TO MAINTAIN NEAR ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO VARYING TRACK DISCREPANCIES. BY TAU 36,
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY ERODE TC 04A, REDUCING INTENSITY TO 90 KNOTS
BY TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 48, A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 04A TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT PAST TAU 72 WITH A SIGNIFICANT
BIFURCATION BETWEEN A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE (GFS AND NAVGEM) AND A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK GUIDED BY THE
SECOND RIDGE (AFUM, UKMET AND ECMWF). BY TAU 120, THE MODEL SPREAD
IS 730NM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK PAST TAU 48 BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK CONSENSUS
SEEN IN THE SECOND SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND
282100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 272100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191027193547
2019102718 04A KYARR 013 01 305 07 SATL 015
T000 179N 0662E 130 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 115 SE QD
100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 184N 0650E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD
100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 187N 0640E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 189N 0632E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 189N 0626E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 185N 0611E 105 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 174N 0593E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD
040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 156N 0566E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD
040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191027193547
2019102718 04A KYARR 013 01 305 07 SATL 015
T000 179N 0662E 130 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 184N 0650E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 187N 0640E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 189N 0632E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 189N 0626E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 185N 0611E 105 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 174N 0593E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 156N 0566E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 66.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 66.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.4N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.9N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.9N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.5N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.4N 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.6N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 65.9E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 135
0419102712 175N 668E 135
0419102712 175N 668E 135
0419102718 179N 662E 130
0419102718 179N 662E 130
0419102718 179N 662E 130
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 271500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191027131038
2019102712 04A KYARR 012 01 290 06 SATL 010
T000 175N 0668E 135 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 135 SE QD
105 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 179N 0655E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD
095 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 184N 0644E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 188N 0636E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 190N 0630E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 189N 0616E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 184N 0604E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD
065 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 173N 0587E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD
060 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 271500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191027131038
2019102712 04A KYARR 012 01 290 06 SATL 010
T000 175N 0668E 135 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 135 SE QD 105 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 179N 0655E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 184N 0644E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 188N 0636E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 190N 0630E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 189N 0616E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 184N 0604E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 173N 0587E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.4N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.8N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.0N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.9N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.4N 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.3N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 66.5E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 135
0419102712 175N 668E 135
0419102712 175N 668E 135
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.4N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.8N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.0N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.9N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.4N 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.3N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 66.5E. 27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON A 20 NM EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KTS IS PLACED BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KTS) AND A 270914Z CIMSS
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 128 KTS. LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 04A IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY
TAU 36, ANOTHER STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 135 KTS THROUGH 48. AFTER TAU 48,
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THE FORECAST
TRACK ALIGNS WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE REMAINING
MODELS (GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND NAVGEM) SHOW TC 04A RECURVING
POLEWARD; HOWEVER, SINCE THE BULK OF THE ECMWF AND MANY GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST TRACK, THAT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THIS FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36. AFTWARD, THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKES TRACK CONFIDENCE LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z,
280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 270900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191027073631
2019102706 04A KYARR 011 01 290 09 SATL 010
T000 173N 0674E 130 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD
095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 177N 0661E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 182N 0649E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 186N 0640E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 190N 0632E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 191N 0619E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 188N 0608E 100 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD
060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 180N 0593E 085 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 270900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 17.3N 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.7N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191027073631
2019102706 04A KYARR 011 01 290 09 SATL 010
T000 173N 0674E 130 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 177N 0661E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 182N 0649E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 186N 0640E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 190N 0632E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 191N 0619E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 188N 0608E 100 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 180N 0593E 085 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 17.3N 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.7N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.0N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.1N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.8N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.0N 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 67.1E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102706 173N 674E 130
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 17.3N 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.7N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.0N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.1N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.8N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.0N 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 67.1E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS A 15 NM EYE IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5/7.0 (127-140 KTS) AND A 270228Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 126 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM 28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS VERY SUPPORTIVE.
TC 04A IS IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARILY INFLUENCE
IS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS A SECOND
STR TO THE NORTHWEST THAT SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
AROUND TAU 72, CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU
48, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS FOLLOWING THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN (GALWEM, ECMWF, UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN, ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN) AND OTHERS FOLLOWING A POLEWARD RECURVE SCENARIO (GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, NAVGEM). BASED ON THIS BIFURCATION, CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 IS GOOD BUT BECOMES LOW AFTERWARD.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. PRIOR TO THE
BIFURCATION, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. AFTERWARD, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME UNSUPPORTIVE AND THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN BUT THE AMOUNT OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON WHICH TRACK TC 04A FOLLOWS. WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL BE LESS THAN IF THE
SYSTEM RECURVED, PRIMARILY BECAUSE VWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER IF THE
SYSTEM RECURVES. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO
ABOUT 85 KTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS
45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 270413
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 27 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KNOTS DURING PAST 06
HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 27 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE
17.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 68.2 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA,
ABOUT 540 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) AND 1500 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS OMAN COAST DURING NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 3
HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/27 AT 12 UTC 17.4 N / 66.8 E MAX WIND 135 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/28 AT 00 UTC 17.9 N / 65.7 E MAX WIND 130 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 68 DEG E NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS
BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 130/135 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 61 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 61 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)


A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 115/120 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 58 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 58 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 90 DEG E:CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS
(.)
2)REST AREA: E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
----------------------------------------------
TOO:-27/0930 EF

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 270300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.4N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.4N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.3N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.7N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.2N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.9N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.5N 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 68.0E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 262330Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) AND A 262023Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 116 KNOTS. TC 04A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND CONTINUES TO HAVE ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 04A WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 04A TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM, REACHING 135 KNOTS BY TAU 12. HOWEVER, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, WHICH WHEN PAIRED WITH THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TC 04A TO DEVELOP BEYOND 135 KTS. BY TAU 24, SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY ERODE TC 04A, REDUCING INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 04A TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT PAST TAU 72 WITH A SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION BETWEEN A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE (GFS AND NAVGEM) AND A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK GUIDED BY THE SECOND RIDGE (AFUM, UKMET AND ECMWF). BY TAU 120, THE MODEL SPREAD IS 436NM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK PAST TAU 48 BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE SECONDARY SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 270300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191027012858
2019102700 04A KYARR 010 01 290 06 SATL 025
T000 170N 0683E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD
085 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 174N 0670E 135 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 178N 0657E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 183N 0647E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 187N 0639E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 192N 0626E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 189N 0608E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 185N 0594E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191027012858
2019102700 04A KYARR 010 01 290 06 SATL 025
T000 170N 0683E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 174N 0670E 135 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 178N 0657E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 183N 0647E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 187N 0639E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 192N 0626E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 189N 0608E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 185N 0594E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.4N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.3N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.7N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.2N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.9N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.5N 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 68.0E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102700 170N 683E 125
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 262100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191026194546
2019102618 04A KYARR 009 01 280 05 SATL 025
T000 168N 0689E 115 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD
100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 171N 0676E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 175N 0663E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 180N 0651E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 185N 0642E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 191N 0630E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 191N 0617E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 185N 0603E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 262100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.1N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191026194546
2019102618 04A KYARR 009 01 280 05 SATL 025
T000 168N 0689E 115 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 171N 0676E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 175N 0663E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 180N 0651E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 185N 0642E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 191N 0630E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 191N 0617E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 185N 0603E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.1N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.5N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.0N 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.5N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.1N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.1N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.5N 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 68.6E.
26OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 613
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102618 168N 689E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.1N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.5N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.0N 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.5N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.1N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.1N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.5N 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 68.6E.
26OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 613
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 261651Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) AND 261400Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 105 KNOTS. TC 04A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND CONTINUES TO HAVE ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 04A TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM, REACHING 125 KNOTS BY TAU 12. HOWEVER, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, WHICH WHEN PAIRED WITH THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TC 04A TO DEVELOP BEYOND 125 KTS. TC 04A WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 96, A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 04A TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS IN INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT PAST TAU 72 WITH A SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION BETWEEN A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE (GFS AND NAVGEM) AND A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK GUIDED BY THE SECOND RIDGE (AFUM, UKMET AND ECMWF). BY TAU 120, THE MODEL SPREAD IS 410NM. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE SECONDARY SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 261540
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BASED ON
1200 UTC OF 26TH OCTOBER, 2019 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:


PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 261200 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 16.7 0N/69.40E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 270/10 KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KT, GUSTS 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

50NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

261800Z 16.8ON /68.6OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

270000Z 16.9N /68.00 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

270600Z 17.2ON /67.10 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

271200Z 17.4ON /66.50 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



36 HRS, VALID AT:

280000Z 17.9ON /65.50 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



48 HRS, VALID AT:

281200Z 18.5ON /64.30 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



60 HRS, VALID AT:

290000Z 19.0ON /63.40 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



72 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z 19.3ON /62.70 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 KT, GUSTS 90KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



84 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z 19.5ON /62.20 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 KT, GUSTS 80 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



96 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z 19.5ON /61.70 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



108 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z 19.3ON /61.20 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



120 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z 19.1ON /60.80 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 261500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191026134822
2019102612 04A KYARR 008 01 280 06 SATL 030
T000 167N 0694E 095 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 110 SE QD
085 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 169N 0681E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 173N 0667E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 179N 0655E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 184N 0646E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 194N 0634E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 198N 0626E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 193N 0617E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 261500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 69.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 69.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.9N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191026134822
2019102612 04A KYARR 008 01 280 06 SATL 030
T000 167N 0694E 095 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 169N 0681E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 173N 0667E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 179N 0655E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 184N 0646E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 194N 0634E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 198N 0626E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 193N 0617E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 69.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 69.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.9N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.3N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.4N 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.4N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.8N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.3N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 69.1E.
26OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102606 166N 700E 80
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
0419102612 167N 694E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 69.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 69.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.9N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.3N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.4N 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.4N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.8N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.3N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 69.1E. 26OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
261055Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND 260841Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. TC 04A IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND
CONTINUES TO HAVE ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 04A TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IN THE SHORT TERM, REACHING 120 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
TC 04A WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE TC 04A TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD NEAR TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, A SECOND STR LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC
04A TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS IN INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. BY TAU 72, THE MODEL SPREAD IS
220NM WITH ECMWF, AND NOW NAVGEM, ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS NAVGEM WAS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND AFUM ARE NOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE ENVELOPE. BY TAU 120, THE MODEL SPREAD IS 590NM. OVERALL
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 261255
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 26 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
MOVED WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 6 KTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY
CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF 26 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEG N
AND LONGITUDE 69.8 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 380KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RATNAGIRI (43110), 425 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(43003) AND 1670 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS OMAN COAST DURING NEXT 5
DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO AN EXTREMELY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT12HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/26 AT 21 UTC 16.9 N / 68.3 E MAX WIND 95 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/27 AT 09 UTC 17.3 N / 66.5 E MAX WIND 95 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/20
KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 20/30
KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 90/95 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 90/95 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2) REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 3 DEG N:CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF
2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 91 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 91 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
-----------------------------
TOO:-26/1800 EF

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 260900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 26 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06
HRS, AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF OF 26TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 70.5 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA, ABOUT 300 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RATNAGIRI (43110), 370 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) AND 1740 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SALALAH (41316). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS OMAN COAST DURING NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER INTO AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HOURS(.)
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA. AT 0300 UTC OF 26TH
OCTOBER (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 73 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 61 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS THE S OF 6 DEG N
(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 85/90 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 87/92 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2) REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 3 DEG N:CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF
2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 91 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 91 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 260900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191026080025
2019102606 04A KYARR 007 01 280 08 SATL 030
T000 167N 0699E 080 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 170N 0686E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 174N 0672E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 179N 0659E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 184N 0648E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 194N 0635E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 199N 0630E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 198N 0620E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 260900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.0N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.0N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.4N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.9N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.4N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.4N 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.9N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.8N 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 69.6E. 26OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A
(KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI,
PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED
SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 260447Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE, REVEALING A
MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADT CI OF T4.7 (82 KNOTS) AND A 260220Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS. TC 04A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 04A TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM. TC 04A WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
WILL CAUSE TC 04A TO DRIFT NORTHWARD NEAR TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, AN
STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 04A TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THE MODEL SPREAD HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BY TAU 72, THE MODEL
SPREAD IS 210NM WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.
BY TAU 120, THE MODEL SPREAD HAS INCREASED TO 520NM. OVERALL THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 260900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191026080025
2019102606 04A KYARR 007 01 280 08 SATL 030
T000 167N 0699E 080 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 170N 0686E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 174N 0672E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 179N 0659E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 184N 0648E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 194N 0635E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 199N 0630E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 198N 0620E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.0N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.4N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.9N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.4N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.4N 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.9N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.8N 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 69.6E.
26OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102518 165N 714E 60
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102600 166N 707E 70
0419102606 167N 699E 80
0419102606 167N 699E 80
0419102606 167N 699E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 260815

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0300 UTC 26 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
12 KMPH DURING THE PAST 06 HRS, AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC
OF OF 26TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 70.5 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 300 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RATNAGIRI (43110), 370 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MUMBAI (43003) AND 1740 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH
(41316). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS OMAN COAST DURING NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS(.)
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
984 HPA. AT 0300 UTC OF 26TH OCTOBER (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 73 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 61 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS THE S OF
6 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 85/90 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 87/92 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2) REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 3 DEG N:CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF
2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 91 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 91 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 260430

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0330 UTC 26 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 12 KMPH
DURING THE PAST 06 HRS, INTENSIFIED INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF OF 25TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 70.8 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 270 KM NEARLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
RATNAGIRI (43110), 360 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) AND 1780 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SALALAH (41316).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS OMAN
COAST DURING NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
INTO AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS..(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA. AT
0000 UTC OF 26TH OCTOBER, (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 64 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 73 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 61 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS THE S OF 6
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 78/83 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 87/92 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2) REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 3 DEG N:CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF
2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 91 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 91 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 260310
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONIC STORM KYARR OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 26th OCTOBER, 2019 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:

PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 260000 UTC
PRESENT POSITION: 16.5 0N/70.80E
POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM
PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 340/06 KT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
40NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT




FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z 16.7?N /69.9?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 705 KT, GUSTS 80 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z 16.9N /69.30?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 KT, GUSTS 90 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z 17.1?N /68.60?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
30 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z 17.3?N /68.00?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
25 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z 17.7?N /66.70?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KT, GUSTS 95 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
30 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z 18.2?N /65.40?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 KT, GUSTS 900 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
30 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z 18.7?N /64.30?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 KT, GUSTS 85 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
30 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z 19.0?N /63.30?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 KT, GUSTS 80KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
30 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

84 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z 19.3?N /62.30?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
30 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z 19.6?N /61.40?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
30 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

108 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z 19.8?N /60.50?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z 20.1?N /59.60?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 260300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191026014453
2019102600 04A KYARR 006 01 295 07 SATL 025
T000 167N 0708E 070 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 120 SE QD
095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 170N 0695E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 174N 0682E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 179N 0669E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 184N 0656E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 196N 0639E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 202N 0638E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 204N 0636E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 260300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.7N 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.0N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191026014453
2019102600 04A KYARR 006 01 295 07 SATL 025
T000 167N 0708E 070 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 170N 0695E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 174N 0682E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 179N 0669E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 184N 0656E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 196N 0639E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 202N 0638E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 204N 0636E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.7N 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.0N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.4N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.9N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.4N 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.6N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.2N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.4N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 70.5E.
26OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 164N 715E 60
0419102518 164N 715E 60
0419102600 167N 708E 70
0419102600 167N 708E 70
0419102600 167N 708E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.7N 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.0N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.4N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.9N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.4N 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.6N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.2N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.4N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 70.5E.
26OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
CENTER. A 252343Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS SET ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND BELOW A
252042Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 76 KTS AND A 260115Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 77 KTS. TC 04A REMAINS IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM AND RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AIDS HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED, REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KTS
BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TC 04A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STRS) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. AT TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS A WEST TO EAST PASSING
TROUGH WEAKENS THE STRS. BY TAU 120, THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK IN, SLOWING THE SYSTEM AND TURNING IT TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
DEPICT THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND SEVERITY
OF THE TROUGH VARIES, INDUCING A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. NAVGEM AND GALWEM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, PREDICTING LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN INDIA. CONVERSELY, ECMWF SHOWS THE SMALLEST AND LATEST
PASSING OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN THE MOST WESTERN SOLUTION WITH A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AT TAU 96. THE
GFS MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH ITS SOLUTION NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
120, AFTER WHICH IT TURNS TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE
NORTHWARD TURN OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
THE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 252100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191025201523
2019102518 04A KYARR 005 01 285 04 SATL 025
T000 164N 0715E 060 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 169N 0704E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 172N 0691E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 176N 0678E 100 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 182N 0664E 110 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 192N 0644E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 201N 0641E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 204N 0640E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191025201523
2019102518 04A KYARR 005 01 285 04 SATL 025
T000 164N 0715E 060 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 169N 0704E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 172N 0691E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 176N 0678E 100 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 182N 0664E 110 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 192N 0644E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 201N 0641E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 204N 0640E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.9N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.2N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.6N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.2N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.2N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.1N 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.4N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 71.2E.
25OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 50
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102518 164N 715E 60
0419102518 164N 715E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 252100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.9N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.9N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.2N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.6N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.2N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.2N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.1N 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.4N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 71.2E.
25OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 251500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191025141838
2019102512 04A KYARR 004 01 025 04 SATL 030
T000 163N 0719E 055 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 168N 0714E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 172N 0700E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 176N 0686E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 179N 0675E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 188N 0649E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 196N 0631E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 200N 0612E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 251500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 71.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 71.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.8N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191025141838
2019102512 04A KYARR 004 01 025 04 SATL 030
T000 163N 0719E 055 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 168N 0714E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 172N 0700E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 176N 0686E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 179N 0675E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 188N 0649E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 196N 0631E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 200N 0612E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 71.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 71.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.8N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.2N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.9N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.8N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.6N 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.0N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 71.8E.
25OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 579
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 45
0419102512 163N 719E 55
0419102512 163N 719E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 71.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 71.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.8N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.2N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.9N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.8N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.6N 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.0N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 71.8E.
25OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 579
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 04A HAS A SOLID CORE OF DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
251152Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE THAT SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A 250859Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 57 KNOTS. TC 04A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE
WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WHILE
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. AS THE STRS BUILD, TC 04A WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TC 04A TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 380NM BY TAU 72 AND A SPREAD
OF JUST OVER 900NM BY TAU 120. AFUM IS NOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MODEL ENVELOPE INDICATING A LANDFALL IN INDIA WITH NAVGEM SHOWING A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. ECMWF IS NOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE INDICATING A TRACK TOWARD OMAN WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
SIMILAR TRACK BUT SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW IN
THE REGION AND THE LACK OF A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THE AFUM AND
NAVGEM SOLUTIONS SEEM LESS LIKELY. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY (LOW CONFIDENCE) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 251220

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 25 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR)
OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH
A SPEED OF 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06-HOURS AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 25 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 71.7 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ,
ABOUT 190 KM NEARLY TO THE WEST OF RATNAGIRI (43110), 340 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) AND 1880 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SALALAH (41316). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS OMAN COAST DURING NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS
AND INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS.(.)


THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA. (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 64 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 73 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 61 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS THE S OF
6 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 65/70 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 85/90 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2) REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 3 DEG N:CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF
2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 91 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 91 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 251000

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 25 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR)
OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06-HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 25 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 DEG N AND LONGITUDE
71.8 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA , ABOUT 190 KM NEARLY
TO THE WEST OF RATNAGIRI (43110), 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(43003) AND 1890 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 6 HOURS AND THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS OMAN COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT 5 DAYS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING
NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING
SUBSEQUENT
12 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 55 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 64 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 73 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 61 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS THE S OF
6 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 60/65 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2) REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 3 DEG N:CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF
2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 91 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 91 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.7N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.2N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.6N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.6N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.3N 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.9N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 71.7E.
25OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 596
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 04A CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 250509Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE THAT
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND IS IN LINE WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC 04A IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD
WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. AS THE STRS BUILD, TC 04A WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
A FASTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 350NM BY TAU 72
AND A SPREAD OF NEARLY 1000NM BY TAU 120. NAVGEM REMAINS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE INDICATING A LANDFALL IN INDIA.
GFS REMAINS IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MODEL ENVELOPE INDICATING A
TRACK TOWARD OMAN. DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE REGION AND THE LACK
OF A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION SEEMS LESS
PLAUSIBLE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. DUE
TO THE WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY (LOW
CONFIDENCE) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z,
260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 250900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191025083337
2019102506 04A KYARR 003 01 055 04 SATL 030
T000 159N 0717E 045 R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 163N 0715E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 167N 0706E 065 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 172N 0692E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 176N 0679E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 186N 0653E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 193N 0633E 090 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 199N 0611E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 250900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.7N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 250900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 25 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING (.)

THE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH
A SPEED OF 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06-HOURS AND LAY
CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 25 TH OCTOBER, 2019
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 71.6 DEG E OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA , ABOUT 210 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
RATNAGIRI (43110), 370 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003)
AND 1870 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN MOVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS OMAN COAST DURING
SUBSEQUENT 5 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.

PART-II


ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 64 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 73 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 61 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS THE S OF
6 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 75/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 90/100 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2) REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 3 DEG N:CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF
2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 91 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 91 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191025083337
2019102506 04A KYARR 003 01 055 04 SATL 030
T000 159N 0717E 045 R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 163N 0715E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 167N 0706E 065 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 172N 0692E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 176N 0679E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 186N 0653E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 193N 0633E 090 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 199N 0611E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.7N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.2N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.6N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.6N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.3N 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.9N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 71.7E.
25OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 596
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 712E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 714E 45
0419102506 159N 717E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 250300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191025015249
2019102500 04A FOUR 002 01 360 01 SATL 030
T000 157N 0713E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 159N 0712E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 163N 0707E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 168N 0698E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 173N 0683E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 183N 0658E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 192N 0634E 095 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 199N 0613E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 250300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.9N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.3N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.9N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.3N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.8N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.3N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.3N 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.2N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 71.3E.
25OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 766
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z,
252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 191025015249
2019102500 04A FOUR 002 01 360 01 SATL 030
T000 157N 0713E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 159N 0712E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 163N 0707E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 168N 0698E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 173N 0683E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 183N 0658E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 192N 0634E 095 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 199N 0613E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.9N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.3N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.8N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.3N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.3N 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.2N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 71.3E.
25OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 766
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z,
252100Z AND 260300Z.//
0419102218 152N 664E 20
0419102300 152N 672E 20
0419102306 152N 681E 20
0419102312 151N 688E 20
0419102318 150N 695E 20
0419102400 150N 701E 25
0419102406 151N 708E 30
0419102412 155N 713E 30
0419102418 156N 713E 35
0419102500 157N 713E 40
NNNN

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