Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FIFTEEN-19 in Cape Verde from 14 Oct 2019 21:00 UTC to 16 Oct 2019 09:00 UTC

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

16/10 08:35 WTNT45KNHC160833

16/10 08:34 WTNT35KNHC160832

16/10 08:34 WTNT25KNHC160832

16/10 03:59 WTNT82EGRR160358

16/10 03:59 WTNT80EGRR160358

16/10 02:37 WTNT45KNHC160235

16/10 02:37 WTNT35KNHC160235

16/10 02:36 WTNT25KNHC160234

15/10 20:53 WTNT45KNHC152051

15/10 20:51 WTNT35KNHC152049

15/10 20:50 WTNT25KNHC152048

15/10 15:57 WTNT82EGRR151555

15/10 15:56 WTNT80EGRR151555

15/10 14:34 WTNT45KNHC151433

15/10 14:34 WTNT35KNHC151432

15/10 14:34 WTNT25KNHC151432

15/10 08:47 WTNT45KNHC150845

15/10 08:47 WTNT35KNHC150845

15/10 08:47 WTNT25KNHC150845

15/10 03:57 WTNT82EGRR150356

15/10 02:42 WTNT45KNHC150240

15/10 02:42 WTNT35KNHC150240

15/10 02:42 WTNT25KNHC150239

14/10 20:42 WTNT45KNHC142040

14/10 20:41 WTNT35KNHC142039

14/10 20:41 WTNT25KNHC142039

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160833
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Fifteen Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019

Satellite images indicate that the surface circulation of the
system has become rather elongated north-to-south, with only a few
weak swirls in the circulation envelope, and has degenerated into a
trough of low pressure. Thus it is no longer a tropical cyclone,
and this is the last advisory. The winds are lowered to 25 kt,
matching the TAFB classification.

The remnants of the cyclone are expected to move northwestward
during the next few days. There is a slight chance of
regeneration, as suggested by the ECMWF model and some of its
ensemble members due to a trough interaction, but that's considered
unlikely at this point.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.3N 24.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160832
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fifteen Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019

...LAST ADVISORY AS DEPRESSION DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 24.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fifteen were located near
latitude 17.3 North, longitude 24.1 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and that motion
should continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system should weaken further today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160832
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019
0900 UTC WED OCT 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 24.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 24.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 23.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 24.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 160358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 93.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.10.2019 0 14.2N 93.3W 1005 35
1200UTC 16.10.2019 12 15.2N 95.6W 1005 30
0000UTC 17.10.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 23.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.10.2019 0 17.0N 23.2W 1012 24
1200UTC 16.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.1N 125.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.10.2019 24 11.1N 125.2W 1007 22
1200UTC 17.10.2019 36 10.3N 125.9W 1006 25
0000UTC 18.10.2019 48 10.0N 126.8W 1003 36
1200UTC 18.10.2019 60 10.6N 127.5W 1000 41
0000UTC 19.10.2019 72 11.8N 127.7W 1000 38
1200UTC 19.10.2019 84 12.9N 127.6W 998 41
0000UTC 20.10.2019 96 13.7N 127.1W 998 44
1200UTC 20.10.2019 108 13.7N 127.2W 1000 45
0000UTC 21.10.2019 120 13.3N 127.6W 1002 35
1200UTC 21.10.2019 132 13.0N 128.6W 1003 36
0000UTC 22.10.2019 144 13.0N 129.5W 1003 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.4N 95.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2019 48 22.4N 95.8W 1005 30
1200UTC 18.10.2019 60 23.8N 93.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 19.10.2019 72 26.8N 90.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 19.10.2019 84 28.3N 89.1W 999 34
0000UTC 20.10.2019 96 30.3N 86.8W 999 30
1200UTC 20.10.2019 108 32.6N 83.3W 1003 30
0000UTC 21.10.2019 120 34.3N 79.5W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.10.2019 132 37.0N 76.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 22.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 18.1N 105.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2019 144 18.1N 105.7W 1004 24

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160358

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 160358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 93.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2019 14.2N 93.3W WEAK
12UTC 16.10.2019 15.2N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 23.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2019 17.0N 23.2W WEAK
12UTC 16.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.1N 125.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.10.2019 11.1N 125.2W WEAK
12UTC 17.10.2019 10.3N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2019 10.0N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2019 10.6N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2019 11.8N 127.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2019 12.9N 127.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2019 13.7N 127.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 13.7N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2019 13.3N 127.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2019 13.0N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2019 13.0N 129.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.4N 95.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2019 22.4N 95.8W WEAK
12UTC 18.10.2019 23.8N 93.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2019 26.8N 90.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.10.2019 28.3N 89.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2019 30.3N 86.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 32.6N 83.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.10.2019 34.3N 79.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.10.2019 37.0N 76.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 18.1N 105.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.10.2019 18.1N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160358

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160235
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The tropical depression located near the Cabo Verde Islands has
become less organized over the past 6 hours. An ASCAT-A overpass at
2154 UTC showed that the depression still had a closed and
well-defined center, but the strongest winds were only 20-25 kt. A
subsequent ASCAT-B pass about 1 hour later showed slightly higher
winds but an elongated circulation. Furthermore, deep convection is
limited to a small area of showers located nearly 100 n mi to the
east of the depression's center. If its convection continues to
decrease, the system could become a remnant low later today.
Alternatively, if its circulation continues to become elongated, it
could soon open into a trough and dissipate. Either way, it seems
unlikely that the depression will remain a tropical cyclone for
long, and this shown by all of the models and the official forecast.

The depression has made a westward jog since the last advisory, but
a longer-term motion estimate is 300/09 kt. The westward jog
resulted in a substantial westward shift in the official forecast
track, but the system is still expected to move generally
west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or two until it
dissipates. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, and the main source of uncertainty is just how quickly the
system will open into a trough.

The latest ECMWF deterministic forecast and few of its ensemble
members indicate that the cyclone could regenerate later this week.
However, most other models do not forecast regeneration and the
uncertainty is too high to justify explicitly showing this in the
official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 16.8N 23.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 17.7N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.6N 25.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1200Z 19.6N 27.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 20.8N 29.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 23.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
the depression.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 23.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). The depression is forecast to move on a
west-northwestward to northwestward heading at a similar forward
speed during the next day or two.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the system is forecast to
become a remnant low on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches)
based on data from the Amilcar Cabral International Airport (GVAC)
in the Cabo Verde Islands.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash
flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the
eastern Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday, especially over high
terrain.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160234
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019
0300 UTC WED OCT 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 23.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 23.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 23.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 24.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.6N 25.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.6N 27.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.8N 29.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 23.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 152051
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The multiple circulations mentioned in the previous advisory
discussion now appear to have consolidated into a tight low-level
center that has recently passed over or near Sal island in the
northeastern Cabo Verde archipelago. Deep convection has increased
slightly and now consists of an elongated band confined to the
eastern semicircle due to modest southwesterly vertical wind shear,
leaving the low-level center exposed to the west. A late-arriving
1128Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated several 28-29 kt surface
wind vectors within the band of convection, which supports
maintaining an intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/09 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The
latest NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement that the
large cyclone will move generally northwestward during the next 48
hours or so, followed by a turn to the west-northwest when the
expected shallow system will become embedded in the brisk low-level
easterly trade wind flow. The new official track forecast is similar
to the previous advisory track, and lies just to the left of the
HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The environmental conditions are expected to only be marginal, so
little, if any, strengthening is anticipated during the next 12
hours. By 24 hours and beyond, the combination of strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier and more stable air, and
SSTs less than 26C should cause steady to rapid weakening, resulting
in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours and
dissipating shortly after 72 hours, if not sooner.

Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm
as it passes near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from
this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in those islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 16.8N 22.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.8N 23.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 24.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 19.9N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 21.2N 28.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 23.0N 32.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

...DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 22.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the
progress of the depression.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 22.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across
the island of Sal this evening and over or near the northern Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and early Wednesday morning.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast tonight and early Wednesday. Weakening is
expected to begin by Wednesday afternoon, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches) is
based on observations from the Amilcar Cabral Airport on Sal island.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash
flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the
eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight, especially
over higher terrain.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 152048
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019
2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 22.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 22.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 22.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.8N 23.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 24.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 26.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.2N 28.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 22.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 151555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 54.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 0 9.6N 54.2W 1013 18
0000UTC 16.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 94.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 0 13.7N 94.2W 1007 33
0000UTC 16.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 168.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 0 29.5N 168.7W 1018 21
0000UTC 16.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 22.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 0 16.1N 22.2W 1011 23
0000UTC 16.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.2N 128.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2019 84 10.6N 129.0W 1008 24
1200UTC 19.10.2019 96 11.4N 128.7W 1009 23
0000UTC 20.10.2019 108 11.6N 128.7W 1008 23
1200UTC 20.10.2019 120 11.3N 128.9W 1008 25
0000UTC 21.10.2019 132 10.9N 129.2W 1006 23
1200UTC 21.10.2019 144 11.0N 129.9W 1006 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 26.1N 91.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2019 84 26.8N 91.2W 999 33
1200UTC 19.10.2019 96 27.6N 88.6W 999 33
0000UTC 20.10.2019 108 29.3N 86.6W 1001 29
1200UTC 20.10.2019 120 31.7N 83.3W 1004 31
0000UTC 21.10.2019 132 35.2N 78.0W 1006 33
1200UTC 21.10.2019 144 37.2N 75.0W 1007 34

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151555

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 151555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 54.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2019 9.6N 54.2W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 94.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2019 13.7N 94.2W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 168.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2019 29.5N 168.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 22.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2019 16.1N 22.2W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.2N 128.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.10.2019 10.6N 129.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.10.2019 11.4N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2019 11.6N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 11.3N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2019 10.9N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2019 11.0N 129.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 26.1N 91.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.10.2019 26.8N 91.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.10.2019 27.6N 88.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2019 29.3N 86.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 31.7N 83.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2019 35.2N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2019 37.2N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151555

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 151433
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The depression doesn't looking very healthy compared to 24 hours ago
when tightly curved convective bands wrapped around the center. Over
the past 12 hours, the convection has devolved into an elongated
north-to-south band of stratiform deep-layer cloudiness with
embedded clusters of moderate to deep convection. The western
semicircle of the broad circulation has degraded with at least two
small low-level circulations revolving southward around the mean
center. A 1045Z partial ASCAT-A pass indicated that the low-level
center was located west of 21W longitude, so the initial position
was adjusted farther west. Intensity estimates range from T1.5/25 kt
from TAFB and the partial ASCAT pass, to 33 kt and 37 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. For now, the intensity will
be held at 30 kt, which is an average of these estimates.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/08 kt, but
this motion is of low confidence given the broad nature of the
cyclone. Surprisingly, the models remain in quite good agreement
that the depression will move generally northwestward during the
next couple of days and pass over or just east of the northeastern
Cabo Verde Islands. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast by
72 hours and beyond due to the weak and shallow system being steered
by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track
forecast has been nudged a little to the left or west of the
previous advisory track, mainly due to the more westward initial
position, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models.

The environmental conditions are expected to remain somewhat
conducive for slight strengthening during the next 12-18 hours.
Although no longer explicitly forecast, it is still possible that
the depression could briefly become a tropical storm later tonight
if a burst of deep convection can develop and tighten up the
inner-core wind field. By late Wednesday, however, the combination
of a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier
mid-level air, and SSTs less than 26C should induce steady to rapid
weakening, resulting in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low
by 36 hours and dissipating in 72-96 hours.

Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm
before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from
this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in those islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 15.6N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 16.5N 22.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.7N 23.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 18.5N 24.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 19.4N 26.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 21.6N 30.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151432
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 21.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the
progress of the depression.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 21.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash
flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the
eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 151432
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019
1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 21.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 21.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 21.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.5N 22.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 23.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 24.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.4N 26.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N 30.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 21.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150845
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The depression remains poorly organized this morning with only
loosely fragmented curved bands observed within the broad
circulation. The satellite intensity estimates suggest that the
cyclone has not strengthened, and the initial wind speed remains 30
kt, which is near the high end of the Dvorak estimates.

The center of the cyclone has been challenging to locate, and the
satellite center fixes from TAFB and SAB were about 60 n mi apart.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325 degrees,
at 10 kt, but this is of low confidence given the broad nature of
the system. The depression is expected to move generally
northwestward during the next couple of days steered by a
mid-level ridge over western Africa. A turn to the west-northwest
is forecast beyond a couple of days when the weak and shallow
system is expected to be steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast takes the center of the depression near the eastern
Cabo Verde Islands later today, and this forecast lies near the
various consensus models.

The environmental conditions are expected to remain generally
favorable for about the next 12-24 hours, so there is some chance
that the cyclone could become a tropical storm during that time.
However, given the large size of the system, significant
intensification is not expected. On Wednesday, a pronounced
increase in southwesterly wind shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs
should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause the cyclone
to become a remnant low in about 2 days when the shear is forecast
to be very strong. All of the models show the cyclone opening up
into a trough within 3 or 4 days.

Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm
before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from
this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in those islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 15.6N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.4N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.5N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 18.4N 24.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 19.4N 25.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 21.5N 29.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150845
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE
EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 20.9W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the
progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning could be
required for a portion of the islands later today.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 20.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Weakening is
expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to become
a remnant low in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain,
especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall
could cause flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern
Cabo Verde Islands later today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150845
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019
0900 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 20.9W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 20.9W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 20.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.4N 22.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 23.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.4N 24.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.4N 25.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 20.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 90.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2019 0 11.3N 90.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 15.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 50.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2019 0 11.3N 50.0W 1012 19
1200UTC 15.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 168.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2019 0 28.5N 168.3W 1014 21
1200UTC 15.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 21.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2019 0 12.9N 21.2W 1011 20
1200UTC 15.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.6N 91.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2019 12 12.6N 91.5W 1005 34
0000UTC 16.10.2019 24 13.9N 94.5W 999 34
1200UTC 16.10.2019 36 15.3N 96.7W 999 53
0000UTC 17.10.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.5N 125.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2019 60 10.4N 125.6W 1007 27
0000UTC 18.10.2019 72 10.4N 125.9W 1005 29
1200UTC 18.10.2019 84 10.9N 125.9W 1004 31
0000UTC 19.10.2019 96 12.0N 125.4W 1003 35
1200UTC 19.10.2019 108 13.0N 124.7W 1005 33
0000UTC 20.10.2019 120 13.1N 124.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 20.10.2019 132 12.7N 123.9W 1007 25
0000UTC 21.10.2019 144 12.6N 123.7W 1006 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 26.7N 88.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2019 96 26.7N 88.8W 1001 32
1200UTC 19.10.2019 108 27.2N 87.7W 1001 35
0000UTC 20.10.2019 120 29.2N 84.9W 1002 30
1200UTC 20.10.2019 132 32.9N 81.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 21.10.2019 144 36.2N 75.7W 1003 41

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150356

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150240
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

The depression has become somewhat less organized this evening. A
band of deep convection has developed over the far northern portion
of the circulation, but there is little convection over the
remainder of the large circulation. A recent partial ASCAT-C
overpass suggests that the low-level center is located well
southwest of the mid-level turning noted in infrared satellite
pictures, and although the scatterometer did not sample the entire
circulation, it appears that the 30-kt initial intensity may be
generous.

The depression is moving northwestward (320 degrees) at about
9 kt. While there is a chance that the center will re-form farther
north near the mid-level center and area of deep convection, the
overall motion of the system is expected to be northwestward
during the next day or two around the southwestward periphery
of a deep-layer ridge over western Africa. The models are in
generally good agreement on this overall scenario, but since the
system is still in the formative stage there is a fair amount of
cross-track spread. After 48 hours, the cyclone should turn toward
the left as it weakens and is steered by the low-level flow. The
new NHC track forecast has been adjusted north of the previous
track, but is not quite as far north as the ECMWF and the
multi-model consensus.

Deep convection is likely to return overnight during the typical
nocturnal convective maximum, and low shear and warm SSTs along the
path of the cyclone favor strengthening during the next day or so.
The large and sprawling structure of the system, however, suggest
any intensification should be slow to occur, and the new NHC
intensity forecast has been reduced slightly from the previous
advisory. By 36 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler
SSTs are expected to cause the cyclone to weaken and the system is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The NHC
intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical SHIPS/LGEM
guidance.

Regardless of whether the depression becomes a tropical storm or not
before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from
this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in those islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 14.5N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 15.5N 21.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 16.8N 22.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 24.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 21.6N 27.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 20.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the
progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning could be
required for a portion of the islands on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 20.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and
then move near or north of the central Cabo Verde Islands Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Tuesday. Weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning
when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain,
especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall
may cause flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern
Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019
0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 20.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 20.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 20.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 21.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.8N 22.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 23.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 24.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.6N 27.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 20.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 142040
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

The large low pressure system that moved off the coast of Africa
yesterday has gradually become better defined based on earlier ASCAT
scatterometer wind data and recent visible satellite imagery.
Several fragmented curved bands have been developing during the past
several hours, especially in the northern semicircle, and the
aforementioned ASCAT passes indicated that winds of 30-32 kt were
present northwest of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt based on a blend of the scatterometer wind data and a satellite
intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and the rather broad
nature of the depression.

A surge of mid-level dry air has recently penetrated into the
inner-core region, causing some erosion of the central deep
convection. However, this is expected to be a temporary condition
with convection returning later tonight and early Tuesday during the
normal nocturnal convective maximum period. However, the large size
of the cyclone -- more than 1000 nmi wide -- should prevent any
rapid or significant intensification. With very low vertical shear
conditions forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to continue for the
next 24 to 36 hours, at least some modest strengthening seems likely
given the unusually warm SSTs of near 28.5 deg C that the cyclone
will be traversing during that time. By 48 hours, the shear is
forecast to increase from the southwest in excess of 25 kt,
resulting in weakening into a remnant low shortly thereafter. By 72
hours and beyond, the shear is expected to increase to more than 40
kt, which will cause rapid weakening and dissipation by the 120-h
period, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to
a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and the GFS-
and ECMWF-based Decay-SHIPS statistical intensity models.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 310/07 kt. The
latest NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on the tropical
cyclone moving generally northwestward around the southwestern
periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 48 hours. Thereafter,
the models diverge significantly based on how soon the cyclone
weakens and turns westward within the low-level easterly trade wind
flow. The ECMWF holds on to a vertically deeper system a little
longer than the GFS, UKMET, HWRF, and HMON models, resulting in a
longer northwestward track. However, since the cyclone will likely
have become a vertically shallow remnant low by 72 hours, the NHC
official forecast track is a little to the left of ECMWF solution,
closer to the TVCN and HCCA consensus model tracks at 72 and 96 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 13.2N 20.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 14.3N 21.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 22.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.7N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.1N 24.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 20.4N 26.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 21.4N 29.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 142039
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 20.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

However, interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor
the progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning may be
required for portions of the islands later tonight or early Tuesday.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude
20.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on
Tuesday, and pass near the central portion of those islands Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday
morning. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning
when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain,
especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall
may cause flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern
Capo Verde Islands by Tuesday morning, and then gradually spread
westward across the central portion of the islands by Tuesday
night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 142039
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019
2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 19.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 21.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 22.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 23.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.1N 24.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.4N 26.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.4N 29.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 20.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>