Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IVO-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 112.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 112.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.2N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.4N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.0N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.7N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.6N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 28.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 30.5N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 112.7W.
22AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1057 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 220842 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
300 AM MDT THU AUG 22 2019

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND CONSISTS OF A CIRCULAR MASS OF CONVECTION SURROUNDED BY A WELL-
DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MORE
EMBEDDED UNDER THE CANOPY THAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO. DESPITE THE
IMPROVEMENT, RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE NOT
INCREASED YET AND ARE BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KT. BECAUSE THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE THEN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT, WHICH IS THE CONSENSUS AMONG TAFB, SAB AND
SATCON ESTIMATES.

THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS SHOULD FAVOR IVO TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH HURRICANE STATUS. THEREAFTER,
IVO SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS, RESULTING
IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY DAY 4, IVO SHOULD BE OVER 20 DEGREE CELSIUS
WATERS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE HCCA SOLUTION AND IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF IVO HAS EITHER MOVED A
LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR IT HAS REFORMED CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER, AN AVERAGE OF
THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS GIVES A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES
AT 11 KT. IVO SHOULD BE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 220842
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The cloud pattern associated with Ivo is a little better organized
and consists of a circular mass of convection surrounded by a well-
defined cyclonically curved band. The center appears to be more
embedded under the canopy than several hours ago. Despite the
improvement, recent scatterometer data show that the winds have not
increased yet and are between 40 and 45 kt. Because the cloud
pattern has improved since then, the initial intensity has been
increased to 50 kt, which is the consensus among TAFB, SAB and
SATCON estimates.

The environment during the next 36 hours should favor Ivo to
strengthen a little more and reach hurricane status. Thereafter,
Ivo should begin to encounter dry air and cooler waters, resulting
in gradual weakening. By day 4, Ivo should be over 20 degree Celsius
waters and become a remnant low void of deep convection. The
intensity forecast follows very closely the HCCA solution and is a
little higher than the consensus.

Satellite data suggest that the center of Ivo has either moved a
little bit south of due west or it has reformed closer to the
convection with a decrease in forward speed. However, an average of
the past 6 to 12 hours gives a motion toward the west or 270 degrees
at 11 kt. Ivo should be reaching the southwestern edge of a
subtropical ridge in 12 to 24 hours, and this flow pattern should
steer the cyclone more toward the west-northwest and northwest. This
general motion should then continue until the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast is a little to the right of the previous
one, but it is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope
and in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model
average TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 15.8N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 220841
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
300 AM MDT THU AUG 22 2019

...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 112.5W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST. IVO HAS
DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13
MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY OR FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY, BUT WEAKENING
SHOULD THEN BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 220841 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 220841
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 220358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL ANALYSED POSITION : 39.5N 48.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2019 0 39.5N 48.2W 1015 27
1200UTC 22.08.2019 12 39.0N 44.5W 1016 24
0000UTC 23.08.2019 24 38.0N 42.2W 1017 23
1200UTC 23.08.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM IVO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 110.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2019 0 15.8N 110.6W 1001 31
1200UTC 22.08.2019 12 15.6N 113.6W 997 31
0000UTC 23.08.2019 24 16.3N 115.6W 992 42
1200UTC 23.08.2019 36 17.4N 117.0W 991 40
0000UTC 24.08.2019 48 18.9N 117.5W 990 44
1200UTC 24.08.2019 60 21.0N 118.2W 989 46
0000UTC 25.08.2019 72 23.7N 119.3W 991 44
1200UTC 25.08.2019 84 27.0N 121.2W 993 42
0000UTC 26.08.2019 96 28.7N 123.6W 1000 31
1200UTC 26.08.2019 108 29.9N 124.8W 1005 24
0000UTC 27.08.2019 120 31.2N 125.4W 1007 19
1200UTC 27.08.2019 132 32.3N 125.4W 1008 19
0000UTC 28.08.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.3N 145.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2019 84 14.2N 146.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 26.08.2019 96 14.4N 147.2W 1005 28
1200UTC 26.08.2019 108 15.0N 147.9W 1003 28
0000UTC 27.08.2019 120 16.2N 148.6W 1002 31
1200UTC 27.08.2019 132 17.3N 149.1W 1000 33
0000UTC 28.08.2019 144 18.6N 149.1W 998 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 78.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2019 84 28.5N 78.5W 1009 28
0000UTC 26.08.2019 96 29.8N 77.4W 1005 33
1200UTC 26.08.2019 108 31.7N 76.2W 998 39
0000UTC 27.08.2019 120 33.1N 75.0W 989 52
1200UTC 27.08.2019 132 34.6N 73.1W 978 58
0000UTC 28.08.2019 144 36.8N 70.9W 956 75

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.8N 37.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2019 132 35.8N 37.5W 1016 23
0000UTC 28.08.2019 144 35.6N 36.8W 1015 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220357

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 220357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL ANALYSED POSITION : 39.5N 48.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.08.2019 39.5N 48.2W WEAK
12UTC 22.08.2019 39.0N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2019 38.0N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM IVO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 110.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.08.2019 15.8N 110.6W WEAK
12UTC 22.08.2019 15.6N 113.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2019 16.3N 115.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2019 17.4N 117.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2019 18.9N 117.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2019 21.0N 118.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2019 23.7N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2019 27.0N 121.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2019 28.7N 123.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.08.2019 29.9N 124.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.08.2019 31.2N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2019 32.3N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.3N 145.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.08.2019 14.2N 146.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 26.08.2019 14.4N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2019 15.0N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2019 16.2N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2019 17.3N 149.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2019 18.6N 149.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 78.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.08.2019 28.5N 78.5W WEAK
00UTC 26.08.2019 29.8N 77.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2019 31.7N 76.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.08.2019 33.1N 75.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2019 34.6N 73.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2019 36.8N 70.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.8N 37.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2019 35.8N 37.5W WEAK
00UTC 28.08.2019 35.6N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220357

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 110.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 110.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.5N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.6N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.8N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.0N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.2N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.4N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.8N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 111.5W.
22AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1068 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND
230400Z.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 220235 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
900 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

AN EARLIER GMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE RELEASE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY REVEALED A TIGHTLY COILED BAND OF CONVECTION
THAT WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, HOWEVER, SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS BEING IMPACTED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER
NOW LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
MASS. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT, AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

IVO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 36 H OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING
HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO TEMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT TIME. THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND AGAIN BRINGS IVO TO
HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN 36 H. AFTER THAT TIME, COOLER WATERS AND A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING, AND IVO IS
FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT
OTHERWISE IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IVO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16 KT. THE STORM SHOULD
SLOW DOWN LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, A
WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE IVO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 220235
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
900 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

...IVO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 111.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY
LATE THURSDAY, WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IVO
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 220235 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W...POST-TROPICAL

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 220235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

An earlier GMI microwave overpass that arrived after the release of
the previous advisory revealed a tightly coiled band of convection
that wrapped around the southern and southeastern portion of the
circulation. More recent microwave imagery, however, shows that
the system is being impacted by northeasterly shear with the center
now located near the northeast portion of the primary convective
mass. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
unanimously supported an intensity of 45 kt, and the initial
intensity has been increased accordingly.

Ivo is expected to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist environment
during the next 36 h or so. These conditions favor strengthening
however the aforementioned moderate northeasterly shear is likely
to temper the rate of intensification during that time. The NHC
forecast calls for steady strengthening and again brings Ivo to
hurricane status within 36 h. After that time, cooler waters and a
drier and more stable air mass should cause weakening, and Ivo is
forecast to become post-tropical by day 4. The official intensity
forecast shows a peak a little higher than most of the guidance but
otherwise is close to the model consensus.

Ivo is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt. The storm should
slow down later tonight or Thursday as it begins to move around the
southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge. In about 24 hours, a
weakness is expected to develop in the ridge which is expected to
cause Ivo to turn northwestward. A general northwestward motion
should then continue through the remainder of the forecast period.
An additional reduction in forward speed is likely late in the
forecast period as the system weakens and becomes vertically
shallow. The track guidance as trended toward a slower motion
after 72 hours, and the updated NHC track has been adjusted a little
southward.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 16.1N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 220235
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.4N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.2N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.2N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.5N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.5N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 25.8N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.8N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
212200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 109.7W.
21AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1121 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 212210 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
300 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

CORRECTED STORM ID IN HEADER BLOCK

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 109.5W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY, WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
300 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

CORRECTED STORM ID IN HEADER BLOCK

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN ONGOING
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION, WITH A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER APPARENT IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT AND THIS
IS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB.

IVO'S INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER IT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY, A WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CYCLONE IS THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

IVO WILL BE OVER WARM SSTS NEAR 30C AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. AND,
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
MAY BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE, THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE DOES NOT
SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR IS HAVING MUCH OF IMPACT AT THIS TIME. BASED
ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST,
AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. BY 72 HOURS,
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
STABLE AIR MASS WHILE UNDERGOING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A CONVECTION-FREE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 212201 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

CORRECTED STORM ID IN THE HEADER BLOCK

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 CCA
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 2...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Corrected storm ID in header block

Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing
increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the
low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave
data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this
is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB.

Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through
much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to
the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then
forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for
the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And,
although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear
may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not
suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based
on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast,
and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours,
the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a
stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear.
This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become
a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official
forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is
close to the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 212201 CCA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

CORRECTED STORM ID IN THE HEADER BLOCK

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 212034 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 212034
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 211451 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
900 AM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE
THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. AN EARLY
MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A NEARLY CLOSED SURFACE LOW WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 30 KT. SINCE THAT TIME, THE APPEARANCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW HAS
MOST LIKELY CLOSED AT THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS DATA, ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST A 30 KT INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION'S INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS
RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS
THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF AROUND 30
C, THROUGH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT, AND WITH 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH THESE CONDITIONS, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME, AND THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY, AND A MINIMAL

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 211451
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance
that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several
days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early
morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with
peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the
disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has
most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories
are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being
steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from
northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model
guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this
ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression.
This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is
then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder
of the forecast period.

The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30
C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly
shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady
strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal
hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the
model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on
the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect
for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will
move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while
undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken
and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical
cyclone by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 211450
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
900 AM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 107.3W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30
KM/H). A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT,
AND A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 211449 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W...POST-TROPICAL

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 211449
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>