Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GIL-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-08-05 03:54

WTPN33 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 126.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 126.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.0N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.6N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 127.5W.
05AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1181 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 7 FEET. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-05 02:39

WTPZ43 KNHC 050236
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2019

GIL HAS LACKED SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN
12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY STILL PRODUCE
SOME SPORADIC, NONPERSISTENT CONVECTION INTO EARLY MONDAY, DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO WEAKEN AND THEN
OPEN INTO A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TONIGHT THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON MONDAY,
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. THIS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER
FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.1N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 05/1200Z 15.0N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0000Z 14.6N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-05 02:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 050232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2019

...GIL DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 127.3W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19
KM/H) AND A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-05 02:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 050230
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 127.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 127.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.0N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.6N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 127.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-04 21:44

WTPN33 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 125.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 125.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.0N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.0N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 126.5W.
04AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1163 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-04 20:42

WTPZ43 KNHC 042039
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2019

GIL HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 9 HOURS NOW, AND IF
CONVECTION DOES RETURN SOON, THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECLARED A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T1.5/25 KT FROM
TAFB AND A 25-KT SURFACE WIND VECTOR IN A RECENT 1835Z ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER EDGE PASS THAT CAUGHT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER GIL'S
POST-TROPICAL TRANSISTION, AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY
LATE MONDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/09 KT. GIL IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 36
HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.0N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-08-04 20:41

WTPZ33 KNHC 042038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2019

...GIL EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 126.3W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND GIL IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-08-04 20:41

WTPZ23 KNHC 042038
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 126.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 126.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 126.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2019-08-04 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 041556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 56.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2019 0 11.6N 56.9W 1015 21
0000UTC 05.08.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 166.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2019 0 18.1N 166.6W 1009 24
0000UTC 05.08.2019 12 19.4N 168.5W 1009 23
1200UTC 05.08.2019 24 19.7N 170.5W 1010 22
0000UTC 06.08.2019 36 19.7N 172.7W 1010 20
1200UTC 06.08.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 146.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2019 0 19.0N 146.9W 1007 33
0000UTC 05.08.2019 12 19.1N 149.5W 1008 31
1200UTC 05.08.2019 24 19.4N 152.3W 1010 27
0000UTC 06.08.2019 36 20.1N 154.6W 1011 24
1200UTC 06.08.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 124.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2019 0 15.0N 124.9W 1008 23
0000UTC 05.08.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041555

>

2019-08-04 15:52

WTPN33 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 124.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 124.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.9N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.9N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.9N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 125.5W.
04AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND
051600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-04 14:40

WTPZ43 KNHC 041437
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2019

SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC, GIL LOST ALL OF ITS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY AIR AS PER GOES-17 MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE
NOW CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS, WITH THE NEAREST
CONVECTION LOCATED MORE THAN 150 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON A DVORAK
T-NUMBER OF T1.5/25 KT. GIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ADVERSE CONDITIONS, DEGENERATING INTO A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATING BY LATE MONDAY.

GIL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 270/09 KT. THE SHALLOW
CYCLONE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW, AND GIL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS NEARLY ON TOP OF OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE AND THE ECMWF MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1200Z 14.9N 128.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 14.9N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-08-04 14:40

WTPZ33 KNHC 041437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gil Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019

...GIL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 125.3W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gil
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 125.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day
or so, and Gil is expected to become a remnant low later today and
dissipate by Monday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-08-04 14:39

WTPZ23 KNHC 041436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.9N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-08-04 10:12

WTPN33 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 004
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 124.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 124.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.1N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.2N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.1N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 124.6W.
04AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1132 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND
051000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-04 08:44

WTPZ43 KNHC 040842
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2019

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE A TOLL ON GIL
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING EVEN
MORE EXPOSED. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS HAS ALSO DECREASED
IN SIZE WITH A NEW SMALLER BURST OF CONVECTION RECENTLY DEVELOPING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE NEW BURST IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHEAR AWAY. A RECENT
ASCAT OVERPASS REVEALED PEAK WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVELY TO 30 KT. THE
STRONG SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND THIS, ALONG WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CAUSE GIL TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
GLOBAL MODEL UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 48 HOURS, AND SO DOES THE UPDATED NHC
FORECAST.

GIL IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275/10 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST
HFIP CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 15.1N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.2N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-08-04 08:44

WTPZ33 KNHC 040842
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2019

...GIL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 124.4W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A
WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND
GIL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-08-04 08:43

WTPZ23 KNHC 040841
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.4W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.4W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.1N 125.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 127.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 124.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-08-04 03:53

WTPN33 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 123.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 123.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.1N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.3N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.3N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.0N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 123.6W.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1121 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-04 02:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 040231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Gil remains a strongly sheared tropical cyclone, with the estimated
low-level center located near the western edge of a ragged-looking
convective mass. Based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB, the
intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. The shear is being produced
by large upper-level trough that lies near and to the north of the
storm, and the dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
persist for the next couple of days. This, along with relatively
dry mid-tropospheric air of relative humidities near 50 to 60
percent, should cause Gil to weaken and then dissipate within 72
hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and close to the model consensus.

The motion is estimated to be westward or 280/10 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of the cyclone
over the next few days. This flow pattern should cause a continued
westward or slightly south of westward track until dissipation.
The official track prediction is very close to the previous NHC
forecast and also close to the corrected model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 15.1N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.3N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-08-04 02:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 040231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2019

...GIL MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 123.6W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.6 WEST. GIL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE
SUNDAY, AND GIL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-08-04 02:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 040230
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.1N 124.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.3N 126.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-08-03 21:06

WTPN33 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GIL) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 121.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 121.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.2N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.5N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.5N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 122.5W.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1105 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND
042200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-03 20:36

WTPZ43 KNHC 032033 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2019

SCATTEROMETERS ARE PROVIDING PLENTY OF SURPRISES TODAY. ASCAT-B DATA
AT 1716 UTC SHOWED THAT THE CYCLONE NOT ONLY STILL HAS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, BUT ALSO WINDS OF 30-35 KT NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE INSTRUMENT LIKELY UNDER SAMPLED
THE STRONGEST WINDS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35
KTS, AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL STORM GIL.

DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS, THE LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR
GIL HAVE NOT IMPROVED. THE TROPICAL STORM IS STRONGLY SHEARED DUE TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH, AND THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A MARGINALLY DRY SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY
LIMIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL WINDS OF GIL,
THE NEW NHC FORECAST CARRIES THE CYCLONE AS A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM
FOR ABOUT A DAY, BEFORE SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 72 H, ALL OF
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT GIL WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE, AND MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD HAPPEN WELL
BEFORE THAT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 KT. THE CENTER POSITION OF GIL
WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THAT SAID, THERE IS
NO CHANGE IN THE REASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST, AND LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE GILL TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT A STEADY PACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS TVCE AND HCCA UNTIL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 H.

>

2019-08-03 20:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 032033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Scatterometers are providing plenty of surprises today. ASCAT-B data
at 1716 UTC showed that the cyclone not only still has a
well-defined circulation, but also winds of 30-35 kt northeast of
the low-level center. Given that the instrument likely under sampled
the strongest winds, the initial intensity has been increased to 35
kts, and the system is now designated as Tropical Storm Gil.

Despite the slight increase in winds, the long-term prospects for
Gil have not improved. The tropical storm is strongly sheared due to
an upper-level trough located just to the north, and the GFS and
ECMWF forecast that the shear will remain high during the next few
days. A marginally dry surrounding environment will also likely
limit further strengthening. Given the higher initial winds of Gil,
the new NHC forecast carries the cyclone as a low-end tropical storm
for about a day, before showing gradual weakening. By 72 h, all of
the dynamical guidance indicates that Gil will open into a trough of
low pressure, and many of the models suggest it could happen well
before that.

The initial motion estimate is 285/10 kt. The center position of Gil
was adjusted slightly southward since the last advisory and the
official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. That said, there is
no change in the reasoning behind the forecast, and low-level
easterly flow should cause Gill to move generally westward for the
next couple of days at a steady pace. The official forecast closely
follows TVCE and HCCA until dissipation is expected after 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.0N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 15.5N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.5N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-08-03 20:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 032033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019

...GIL FORMS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 122.4W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 122.4 West. Gil is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general
westward motion at about the same forward speed is forecast for the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Gradual weakening is anticipated by early next week, and Gill is
expected to dissipate by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-08-03 20:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 032032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 125.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 129.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 122.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-08-03 16:05

WTPN33 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (EIGHT-E) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (EIGHT-E) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 120.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 120.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.4N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.7N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.9N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 121.4W.
03AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (EIGHT-E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1093 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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2019-08-03 15:16

WTPZ43 KNHC 031512
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2019

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE
OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER
JUST WEST OF AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS,
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E. AN
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS MEASURED WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT, AND THIS
IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT THAT IS CURRENTLY DISPLACING CONVECTION
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER THE BASE OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY
STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NEAR TERM. IN ADDITION TO
THE SHEAR, THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND BEGIN
TO MOVE OVER MORE MARGINAL SSTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 9 KT, ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT IT WILL TURN
WESTWARD LATER TODAY, STEERED PRIMARILY BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 14.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.4N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.9N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN/ZELINSKY

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2019-08-03 15:00

WTPZ33 KNHC 031458
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 121.2W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 121.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. A
general westward motion at a similar forward speed is expected for
the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two, and the
depression is forecast to dissipate by early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven

>

2019-08-03 15:00

WTPZ23 KNHC 031457
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019
1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 121.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 121.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 122.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 124.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.9N 126.7W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

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