Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FLOSSIE-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-08-06 03:32

WTPN32 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 154.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 154.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.1N 155.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.0N 156.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.0N 157.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 154.7W.
06AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
78 NM NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 10 FEET.//
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>

2019-08-05 22:22

WTPN32 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 20.0N 153.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 153.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.1N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.6N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 24.0N 157.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 153.7W.
05AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
//
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>

2019-08-05 15:25

WTPN32 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 152.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 152.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.3N 154.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.5N 156.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.9N 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 152.8W.
05AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
351 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
//
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>

2019-08-05 09:48

WTPN32 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 032
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 150.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 150.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.8N 153.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.8N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.0N 157.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 151.5W.
05AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
256 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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>

2019-08-05 03:50

WTPN32 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 031
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 149.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 149.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.1N 151.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 154.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.8N 156.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.8N 158.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 150.1W.
05AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
512 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND
060400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-04 21:41

WTPN32 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 030
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.9N 148.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 148.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.1N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.5N 153.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.5N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.5N 157.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 148.8W.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND
052200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-04 15:51

WTPN32 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 029
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 147.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 147.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.4N 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.7N 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.4N 154.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.6N 156.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 148.1W.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 611
NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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>

2019-08-04 10:10

WTPN32 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 028
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 146.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 146.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.3N 148.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.4N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.9N 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.0N 155.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.9N 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 146.9W.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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>

2019-08-04 03:52

WTPN32 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 027
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 145.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 145.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.3N 147.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.6N 149.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.0N 151.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.6N 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.9N 157.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3N 159.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 145.7W.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-03 21:02

WTPN32 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 026
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 143.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 143.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.2N 146.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.7N 148.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0N 150.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.6N 152.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.1N 156.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 25.4N 158.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 144.7W.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805
NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND
042200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-03 15:52

WTPN32 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 025
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 142.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 142.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.0N 145.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5N 147.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.8N 150.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.4N 152.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.4N 155.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.0N 157.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 143.7W.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865
NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND
041600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (EIGHT-E)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-03 09:30

WTPN32 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 141.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 141.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.9N 144.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.5N 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.8N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.5N 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.7N 155.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.6N 157.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.0N 158.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 142.7W.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-03 03:33

WTPN32 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 140.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 140.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.4N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.0N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.4N 147.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.9N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.4N 154.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.0N 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 31.0N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 141.2W.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-03 02:53

WTPA42 PHFO 030250 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072019
500 PM HST FRI AUG 02 2019

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN AS A MESSY SYSTEM. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT
FROM PFHO, JTWC, AND SAB, AND THE CIMSS ADT VALUE AT 3/0000 UTC WAS
3.3/51 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, AND THE POOR
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PLAN. FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD TURN
FLOSSIE TOWARD A NORTHWESTWARD, AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK BEYOND THE
48 HOUR TIME FRAME. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH HWRF AND HMON INDICATE LESS OF A TURN AND ARE
THUS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS,
THEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FROM 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND TO LINE UP MORE CLOSELY WITH THE TVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS.

FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FURTHERMORE, VERTICAL

>

2019-08-03 02:52

WTPA42 PHFO 030250
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072019
500 PM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

Tropical Storm Flossie has crossed into the Central North Pacific
basin as a messy system. Satellite images indicated limited deep
convection displaced northeast of the partially exposed low level
circulation center. Dvorak intensity estimates came in at 3.0/45 kt
from PFHO, JTWC, and SAB, and the CIMSS ADT value at 3/0000 UTC was
3.3/51 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, and the poor
appearance in satellite imagery, the initial intensity for this
advisory has been lowered to 50 kt.

There is no change to the forecast track plan. Flossie continues to
move west-northwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge
to the north of the cyclone. This direction of motion is expected to
continue over the next 48 hours but with a slightly slower forward
speed. Large-scale models indicate that the ridge will weaken as an
upper level trough approaches from the northwest. This should turn
Flossie toward a northwestward, and then northward track beyond the
48 hour time frame. All of the models are in general agreement with
this scenario, though HWRF and HMON indicate less of a turn and are
thus on the southern side of the guidance envelope. The forecast for
this advisory is right on the previous forecast through 24 hours,
then nudged slightly south of the previous track from 36 hours and
beyond to line up more closely with the TVCN and HCCA consensus.

Flossie is expected to traverse over marginal sea surface
temperatures through the forecast period. Furthermore, vertical
shear is expected to increase to above 30 knots after 48 hours in
the ECMWF SHIPS guidance. Given these factors, the model intensity
guidance shows continued weakening through the forecast period. The
current forecast is close to the IVCN and HCCA guidance, and makes
Flossie a tropical depression after 48 hours to the east of the main
Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.9N 141.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.0N 145.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 19.4N 147.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.9N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 22.4N 154.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 31.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

2019-08-03 02:43

WTPA32 PHFO 030240
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072019
500 PM HST FRI AUG 02 2019

...FLOSSIE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 141.0W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.0 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER KODAMA

>

2019-08-03 02:38

WTPA22 PHFO 030235
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072019
0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 141.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 141.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 140.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 147.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 150.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.4N 154.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 31.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 141.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

..
FORECASTER KODAMA

>

2019-08-02 21:54

WTPN32 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 138.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 138.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.0N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.7N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.3N 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.7N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.5N 153.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.5N 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.0N 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 139.8W.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1108
NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-02 20:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 022038 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 02 2019

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE
CONVECTION DECREASING AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPARENTLY DISPLACED
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THE DECAY OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND JUST-RECEIVED ASCAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15. AS BEFORE, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP FLOSSIE
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DAYS. AFTER
THAT, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A NORTHWESTWARD TURN FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHWARD TURN DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHWEST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES FLOSSIE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
26C AND THROUGH PERSISTENT SHEAR, WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO
INCREASE BETWEEN 48-120 H AS FLOSSIE APPROACHES THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS
ENVIRONMENT BY FORECASTING GRADUAL WEAKENING, AND THE NEW NHC
FORECAST, WHICH IS AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ON FLOSSIE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER

>

2019-08-02 20:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 022038
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that Flossie
has become less organized during the past several hours, with the
convection decreasing and the mid-level center apparently displaced
to the east of the low-level center. Based on the decay of the
cloud pattern and just-received ASCAT data, the initial intensity
is reduced to 55 kt.

The initial motion is 285/15. As before, there has been little
change to either the track forecast philosophy or the track
forecast. A subtropical ridge to the north should keep Flossie
moving generally west-northwestward for another 2 or 3 days. After
that, most of the guidance forecasts a northwestward turn followed
by a northward turn due to an upper-level trough located northwest
of the Hawaiian Islands. The new official track forecast is close
to the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus
models.

The forecast track takes Flossie over sea surface temperatures near
26C and through persistent shear, with the shear forecast to
increase between 48-120 h as Flossie approaches the aforementioned
upper-level trough. The intensity guidance responds to this
environment by forecasting gradual weakening, and the new NHC
forecast, which is again similar to the previous forecast, follows
this scenario.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Flossie. Future information on this system can be found in
Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header
WTPA22 PHFO. For information specific to the Hawaiian Islands,
users should continue to consult products from the National Weather
Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.5N 139.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.0N 141.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.7N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 19.3N 146.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.7N 148.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.5N 153.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 25.5N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 29.0N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-08-02 20:40

WTPZ22 KNHC 022038 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 165SE 120SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 138.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 141.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 144.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.3N 146.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 148.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 153.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.5N 156.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 156.0W

>

2019-08-02 20:39

WTPZ32 KNHC 022037 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 02 2019

...FLOSSIE ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 139.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 139.5 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, FLOSSIE IS FORECAST
TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE

>

2019-08-02 20:39

WTPZ22 KNHC 022038
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 165SE 120SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 138.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 141.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 144.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.3N 146.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 148.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 153.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.5N 156.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 156.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 139.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-08-02 20:38

WTPZ32 KNHC 022037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

...FLOSSIE ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 139.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 139.5 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
through early next week. On the forecast track, Flossie is forecast
to cross into the central Pacific basin during the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the weekend and
will likely continue through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and
WMO header WTPA32 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-08-02 16:00

WTPN32 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 137.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 137.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.6N 140.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.3N 142.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.9N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.3N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.9N 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.5N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.0N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 138.1W.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1208
NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND
031600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-02 14:56

WTPZ42 KNHC 021453 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 AM HST FRI AUG 02 2019

RECENT LONG- AND SHORT- WAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS LAST
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE MORE EMBEDDED
WITHIN ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THAT SAID, THE DVORAK FINAL-T
AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE 6 HOURS AGO.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SUPPORTED MAX WINDS OF
ABOUT 60 KT, AND THIS IS AGREES WITH THE DVORAK FIXES FROM TAFB AND
SAB, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT THAT VALUE.

THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, NOW
AT ABOUT 15 KT, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP
FLOSSIE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLOSSIE WILL SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THEN TURN
NORTHWESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY DAY 4, A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GLOBAL
MODELS. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT, SHOWING RECURVATURE EAST OF
HAWAII, AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND TVCE MODELS AT ALL
FORECAST HOURS.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THAT FLOSSIE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 26 DEG C, AND MODERATE SHEAR
OF AROUND 20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY 72 H, A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD

>

2019-08-02 14:55

WTPZ42 KNHC 021453
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

Recent long- and short- wave infrared satellite images show that
tropical storm Flossie is a little more symmetric than it was last
night. The center of the tropical storm appears to be more embedded
within its central dense overcast. That said, the Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB have not changed since 6 hours ago.
Scatterometer data from earlier this morning supported max winds of
about 60 kt, and this is agrees with the Dvorak fixes from TAFB and
SAB, so the initial intensity remains at that value.

The track forecast has not been significantly changed from the
previous advisory. Flossie continues to move west-northwestward, now
at about 15 kt, and a subtropical ridge to the north should keep
Flossie on this general heading for another 2 or 3 days. Most of the
models suggest that Flossie will slow down slightly and then turn
northwestward early next week, ahead of an upper-level trough
located northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. By day 4, a turn toward
the north is forecast by all of the typically reliable global
models. The NHC forecast follows suit, showing recurvature east of
Hawaii, and is very close to the HCCA and TVCE models at all
forecast hours.

All of the intensity guidance forecasts that Flossie will gradually
weaken over the next 3 to 4 days. The cyclone is moving over
marginal sea surface temperatures near 26 deg C, and moderate shear
of around 20 kt should continue to affect the cyclone through early
next week. By 72 h, a sharp increase in westerly shear should
occur as Flossie approaches the aforementioned upper-level trough,
and additional weakening is anticipated. The NHC intensity forecast
is very similar to the previous one, and is near the middle of the
low-spread intensity guidance envelope.

On the forecast track, Flossie will move into the Central Pacific
basin later today, at which point the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center will assume forecast responsibilities. For information
specific to the Hawaiian Islands, users should continue to consult
products from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in
Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.1N 137.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.6N 140.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.3N 142.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.9N 145.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.9N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 24.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 29.0N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

>

2019-08-02 14:55

WTPZ22 KNHC 021452 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 137.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 135SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 137.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 140.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 142.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 152.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.5N 155.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

>

2019-08-02 14:54

WTPZ32 KNHC 021452
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 137.8W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 137.8 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general heading with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
through early next week. On the forecast track, Flossie is forecast
to cross into the central Pacific basin later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the weekend and
will likely continue through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

>

2019-08-02 14:54

WTPZ22 KNHC 021452
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 137.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 135SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 137.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 140.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 142.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 152.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.5N 155.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 137.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS

>

2019-08-02 10:10

WTPN32 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 135.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 135.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.2N 138.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.9N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.5N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.0N 146.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.3N 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.5N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.0N 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 136.6W.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1127
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-08-02 08:47

WTPZ42 KNHC 020844 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 PM HST THU AUG 01 2019

AN 0646 UTC ASCAT-B OVERPASS CAPTURED FLOSSIE'S ENTIRE TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD AND CONFIRMED THAT THE STRUCTURE REMAINS
ASYMMETRIC. COMBINING THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CONVENTIONAL
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT FLOSSIE'S CENTER IS EMBEDDED
JUST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF -70 DEGREE CELSIUS CLOUD TOPS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT, WHICH IS A BLEND OF DVORAK CI
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND JUST ABOVE THE 55 KT SHOWN BY THE
ASCAT DATA (ACCOUNTING FOR POSSIBLE UNDERSAMPLING).

FLOSSIE JUST WON'T SLOW DOWN, AS THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/16 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH REMAINS STRONG, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP FLOSSIE ON THE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE
TRACK MODELS INSIST THAT THE CURRENT SPEED SHOULD DECREASE A BIT.
AFTER DAY 3, A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CAUSE FLOSSIE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN NORTHWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS
SUCH A SCENARIO, BUT THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST HAS THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND MOST OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE RECURVING NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
WHILE THE REGIONAL HWRF AND HMON MODELS, AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE, ARE DEPICTING A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WITH
LESS RECURVATURE. DESPITE THESE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS, THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY

>

2019-08-02 08:46

WTPZ42 KNHC 020844
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 01 2019

An 0646 UTC ASCAT-B overpass captured Flossie's entire tropical-
storm-force wind field and confirmed that the structure remains
asymmetric. Combining the scatterometer data and conventional
infrared satellite images shows that Flossie's center is embedded
just within the southwestern edge of -70 degree Celsius cloud tops.
The initial intensity remains 60 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB, and just above the 55 kt shown by the
ASCAT data (accounting for possible undersampling).

Flossie just won't slow down, as the initial motion is still
west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt. The subtropical ridge to the
north remains strong, and this should keep Flossie on the west-
northwestward trajectory for the next 3 days, although the
track models insist that the current speed should decrease a bit.
After day 3, a deepening upper-level low north and northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands should cause Flossie to turn northwestward and
then northward on days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast depicts
such a scenario, but this is where the forecast has the most
uncertainty. All of the global models and most of the consensus
models show Flossie recurving northeast of the Hawaiian Islands,
while the regional HWRF and HMON models, as well as the Florida
State Superensemble, are depicting a more southern solution with
less recurvature. Despite these southern solutions, the new NHC
forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one and is very
close to the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids.

Nearly steady shear of 15 kt and ocean temperatures around 27
degrees Celsius should keep Flossie's intensity relatively steady
for the next 12 hours or so. After that time, deep-layer shear is
expected to steadily increase to at least 30 kt by 48 hours while
Flossie also moves over a relative minimum in sea surface
temperatures just under 26 degrees Celsius. These factors are
likely to contribute to steady weakening, and there is relatively
little spread among the intensity models in showing this scenario.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from
the previous one and shows Flossie becoming a tropical depression in
4 days.

On the forecast track, Flossie will be moving into the central
Pacific basin in 12-24 hours, at which point the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center will assume forecast responsibilities. In the
meantime, users should continue to consult local forecasts from the
National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at
www.weather.gov/hfo for information specific to the Hawaiian
Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.8N 136.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.2N 138.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 141.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 19.0N 146.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 20.3N 151.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 23.5N 155.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 28.0N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-08-02 08:45

WTPZ32 KNHC 020843
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 PM HST THU AUG 01 2019

...FLOSSIE STILL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 136.4W
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 136.4 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO
CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-08-02 08:45

WTPZ22 KNHC 020843 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC FRI AUG 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 136.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 136.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 135.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 138.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 141.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 146.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 151.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 155.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

>

2019-08-02 08:44

WTPZ22 KNHC 020843
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC FRI AUG 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 136.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 136.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 135.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 138.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 141.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 146.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 151.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 155.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 156.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 136.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2019-08-02 03:56

WTNT80 EGRR 020356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.08.2019 10.6N 116.5W WEAK
12UTC 02.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 41.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.08.2019 10.2N 41.8W WEAK
12UTC 02.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 154.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.08.2019 16.0N 154.5W MODERATE
12UTC 02.08.2019 16.6N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 17.2N 159.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 17.7N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 18.8N 163.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 20.3N 165.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 20.9N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2019 21.4N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 21.9N 167.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2019 22.0N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2019 22.5N 168.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2019 22.9N 169.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2019 23.3N 169.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 134.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.08.2019 16.1N 134.1W MODERATE
12UTC 02.08.2019 16.5N 137.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 17.0N 140.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 17.6N 143.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 18.1N 145.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 18.8N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 19.2N 150.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2019 20.2N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 22.0N 154.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2019 24.7N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2019 27.5N 154.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2019 29.5N 153.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2019 31.0N 153.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 18.6N 61.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2019 19.4N 62.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.08.2019 21.1N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020356

>

2019-08-02 03:06

WTPN32 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 134.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 134.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.9N 137.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.5N 140.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.1N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.7N 145.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.7N 150.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.5N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.5N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 135.1W.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1391
NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-08-02 02:36

WTPZ42 KNHC 020233 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 PM HST THU AUG 01 2019

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, FLOSSIE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
MORE CIRCULAR NEAR THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS STILL
FAVORING THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT
A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE IS PRESENT AGAIN, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS RAISED TO 60 KT, WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CIMSS
SATELLITE CONSENSUS. THE STORM HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE AGAIN OVERNIGHT SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY ABOUT THE
SAME IN THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD, IN ADDITION TO THE
CYCLONE MOVING OVER A WARMER SST RIDGE DURING THAT TIME. THIS
STRENGTHENING WINDOW SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH MORE
MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES. THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS RAISED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM, THEN BASICALLY MATCHES THE LAST
ADVISORY AFTER 36 HOURS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16. A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING
IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER, FLOSSIE
REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND
IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON MONDAY AND NORTHWARD ON
TUESDAY. THE MODEL SPREAD IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, BUT IT
IS NOTABLE THAT THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS (HWRF, HMON,

>

2019-08-02 02:35

WTPZ42 KNHC 020233
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 PM HST Thu Aug 01 2019

Somewhat surprisingly, Flossie has become better organized this
evening. Satellite images indicate that deep convection has become
more circular near the center, although the convection is still
favoring the eastern semicircle. Microwave data also show that
a low-level eye feature is present again, so the initial wind speed
is raised to 60 kt, which is in good agreement with the CIMSS
satellite consensus. The storm has a reasonable chance to become a
hurricane again overnight since shear is forecast to stay about the
same in the diurnal convective maximum period, in addition to the
cyclone moving over a warmer SST ridge during that time. This
strengthening window should be short-lived with increasing
northwesterly shear in all of the model guidance, along with more
marginal water temperatures. Thus the new forecast is raised from
the previous one in the short-term, then basically matches the last
advisory after 36 hours and lies close to the model consensus.

Flossie continues to move west-northwestward or 285/16. A large
subtropical ridge to the north is forecast to keep the storm moving
in the same general direction for the next few days, with some
reduction in forward speed over the weekend. Thereafter, Flossie
reaches the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, and
is anticipated to turn northwestward on Monday and northward on
Tuesday. The model spread is similar to the previous cycle, but it
is notable that the regional hurricane models (HWRF, HMON,
COAMPS-TC) have shifted somewhat to the northeast on this cycle,
closer to the previous NHC prediction and model consensus.
Therefore, very little change is made to the last NHC track
forecast, except that it is faster, since the models have had a
tough time keeping up with the speed of Flossie.

It is worth noting that the confidence in the 4-day forecast
position of Flossie is still low, and the average error of track and
intensity forecasts at that range is about 150 miles and 20 mph,
respectively. In addition, hazards associated with tropical storms
extend well away from the center of circulation. Users should
therefore consult local forecasts from the National Weather Service
Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo for
information specific to the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.4N 134.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.9N 137.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.5N 140.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.1N 143.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.7N 145.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 19.7N 150.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 22.5N 154.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 27.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-08-02 02:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 020232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 PM HST THU AUG 01 2019

...FLOSSIE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 134.8W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 134.8 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, FLOSSIE SHOULD
CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS BY LATE FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-08-01 21:30

WTPN32 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 132.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 132.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6N 135.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.2N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.9N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.5N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.3N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0N 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.0N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 133.5W.
01AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1487
NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND
022200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-08-01 20:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 012037 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 AM HST THU AUG 01 2019

AGAIN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE ONGOING BURSTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN
HAS A VERY ASYMMETRIC LOOK DUE TO THE IMPACT OF 15-20 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED
SEVERAL 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER, AND BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF THESE DATA AND OTHER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT.

THE STORM HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
NOW 290/16. OTHER THAN THAT, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE SUBTROPICAL TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD KEEP FLOSSIE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 72 H AS INDICATED BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE. THE
GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES AFTER THAT, WITH THE REGIONAL MODELS
(HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) CONTINUING TO TAKE FLOSSIE MORE WESTWARD
TOWARD HAWAII AND THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
FLOSSIE TURNING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII AHEAD OF A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FOLLOW THE GLOBAL MODEL SCENARIO, AND THE NEW FORECAST LIES A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE MAINLY TO THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.

FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 72
H OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AFTER
THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING A

>

2019-08-01 20:39

WTPZ42 KNHC 012037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 01 2019

Again there has been little change in the structure of Flossie
during the past several hours. There are ongoing bursts of
convection near the low-level center, and the overall cloud pattern
has a very asymmetric look due to the impact of 15-20 kt of
northwesterly vertical wind shear. A recent ASCAT overpass showed
several 45-50 kt wind vectors near the center, and based on a
combination of these data and other satellite intensity estimates
the initial intensity will remain 55 kt.

The storm has turned a little to the right with the initial motion
now 290/16. Other than that, there is little change to the track
forecast philosophy. The subtropical tropical ridge to the north
should keep Flossie moving generally west-northwestward for the
next 72 h as indicated by the tightly clustered track guidance. The
guidance spread increases after that, with the regional models
(HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) continuing to take Flossie more westward
toward Hawaii and the global models remaining in good agreement on
Flossie turning northward to the northeast of Hawaii ahead of a mid-
to upper-level trough. The new NHC track forecast continues to
follow the global model scenario, and the new forecast lies a little
north of the previous forecast due mainly to the initial position
and motion.

Flossie is expected to experience moderate shear during the first 72
h of the forecast period, and the shear is likely to increase after
that time. The intensity guidance responds to this by showing a
gradual weakening, and the new NHC forecast, which is an update of
the previous forecast, follows the overall trend of the guidance.

It is worth noting that the confidence in the 5-day forecast
position of Flossie is still low, and the average error of track and
intensity forecasts at that range is about 200 miles and 20 mph,
respectively. In addition, hazards associated with tropical storms
extend well away from the center of circulation. Users should
therefore consult local forecasts from the National Weather Service
Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo for
information specific to the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.0N 133.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.6N 135.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.2N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 141.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.5N 144.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 19.3N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 21.0N 153.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 25.0N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-08-01 20:38

WTPZ32 KNHC 012036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 AM HST THU AUG 01 2019

...FLOSSIE MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 133.2W
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1590 MI...2555 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 133.2 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, FLOSSIE SHOULD
CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-08-01 20:38

WTPZ22 KNHC 012036 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC THU AUG 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 133.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 133.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 132.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 135.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 138.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 141.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 144.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 149.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 153.5W

>

2019-08-01 20:38

WTPZ22 KNHC 012036
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC THU AUG 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 133.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 133.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 132.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 135.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 138.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 141.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 144.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 149.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 153.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 133.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2019-08-01 19:35

WTPN32 PHNC 011600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 130.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 130.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.6N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.3N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.9N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.5N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.4N 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.5N 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.5N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 131.9W.
01AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1306
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED WARNING NUMBER FROM 18 TO 17
IN WARNING TEXT.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-01 15:58

WTPN32 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 130.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 130.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.6N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.3N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.9N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.5N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.4N 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.5N 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.5N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 131.9W.
01AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1306
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND
021600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-01 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 011556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 38.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.08.2019 0 10.0N 38.4W 1012 21
0000UTC 02.08.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 151.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.08.2019 0 15.5N 151.6W 994 52
0000UTC 02.08.2019 12 15.8N 155.0W 999 40
1200UTC 02.08.2019 24 16.1N 157.5W 1001 40
0000UTC 03.08.2019 36 16.6N 159.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 03.08.2019 48 17.1N 162.0W 1005 31
0000UTC 04.08.2019 60 18.1N 164.0W 1006 30
1200UTC 04.08.2019 72 19.0N 165.7W 1006 30
0000UTC 05.08.2019 84 20.1N 167.2W 1007 28
1200UTC 05.08.2019 96 20.8N 168.5W 1006 28
0000UTC 06.08.2019 108 21.4N 169.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 06.08.2019 120 21.4N 170.2W 1008 23
0000UTC 07.08.2019 132 21.9N 171.1W 1009 22
1200UTC 07.08.2019 144 22.3N 172.0W 1010 22

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 131.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.08.2019 0 14.7N 131.0W 995 46
0000UTC 02.08.2019 12 15.8N 134.1W 994 49
1200UTC 02.08.2019 24 16.4N 137.4W 996 48
0000UTC 03.08.2019 36 17.2N 140.4W 997 46
1200UTC 03.08.2019 48 17.8N 143.4W 999 43
0000UTC 04.08.2019 60 18.7N 146.1W 1002 41
1200UTC 04.08.2019 72 19.4N 148.8W 1004 37
0000UTC 05.08.2019 84 20.3N 151.2W 1006 34
1200UTC 05.08.2019 96 21.4N 153.5W 1007 33
0000UTC 06.08.2019 108 23.3N 154.7W 1009 31
1200UTC 06.08.2019 120 26.0N 154.9W 1008 35
0000UTC 07.08.2019 132 29.2N 154.0W 1006 40
1200UTC 07.08.2019 144 32.1N 153.3W 1007 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 35.3N 73.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2019 84 36.5N 70.6W 1005 36
1200UTC 05.08.2019 96 37.3N 64.0W 1003 35
0000UTC 06.08.2019 108 37.6N 55.7W 1003 34
1200UTC 06.08.2019 120 38.8N 48.0W 999 42
0000UTC 07.08.2019 132 39.8N 38.7W 986 54
1200UTC 07.08.2019 144 41.1N 30.4W 976 61


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011555

>

2019-08-01 14:54

WTPZ42 KNHC 011450 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 AM HST THU AUG 01 2019

THE STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE HASN'T CHANGED IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY SINCE
LAST NIGHT. RECENT SSMI MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL STORM IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALL OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION, AND ITS IR PRESENTATION HASN'T CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. SINCE FLOSSIE'S APPEARANCE AND STRUCTURE HAS BEEN NEARLY
STEADY-STATE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT, BASED PRIMARILY
ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA.

THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
AND FLOSSIE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FINALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE FORECAST, AND ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THAT FLOSSIE'S
STRENGTH WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE
GFS NOW FORECASTS THAT FLOSSIE WILL DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE
NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO IVCN AT ALL FORECAST HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL 285/14 KT. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 72 H THE TRACK FORECAST, AND ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP FLOSSIE NEAR ITS CURRENT HEADING AND
SPEED THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE SPREAD INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AFTER
THAT, WITH THE REGIONAL MODELS (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) ALL TAKING A
WEAK FLOSSIE FARTHER SOUTH, POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTH OF HAWAII, WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW FLOSSIE RECURVING EAST OF THE ISLANDS AHEAD

>

2019-08-01 14:54

WTPZ42 KNHC 011450
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 AM HST Thu Aug 01 2019

The structure of Flossie hasn't changed in any meaningful way since
last night. Recent SSMI microwave data indicate that the center of
the tropical storm is displaced to the northwest of all of its deep
convection, and its IR presentation hasn't changed since the last
advisory. Since Flossie's appearance and structure has been nearly
steady-state, the initial intensity remains 55 kt, based primarily
on earlier ASCAT data.

The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory,
and Flossie is still expected to remain a tropical storm for the
next 5 days. The intensity guidance is finally in good agreement on
the forecast, and all of the models indicate that that Flossie's
strength will not change substantially for the next day or two,
followed by gradual weakening through early next week. In fact, the
GFS now forecasts that Flossie will dissipate in about 5 days. The
new official intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity
guidance envelope and is very close to IVCN at all forecast hours.

The initial motion of the cyclone is still 285/14 kt. There is high
confidence in the first 72 h the track forecast, and all of the
guidance continues to keep Flossie near its current heading and
speed through that period. The spread increases dramatically after
that, with the regional models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) all taking a
weak Flossie farther south, possibly even south of Hawaii, while the
global models all show Flossie recurving east of the islands ahead
of a mid- to upper-level trough. For the moment, the NHC forecast
continues to favor the global model solution and does not show a
significant change to the track forecast, however it has been
tweaked slightly southward at days 4 and 5.

It is worth noting that the confidence in the 5-day forecast
position of Flossie is quite low, and the average error of track and
intensity forecasts at that range is about 200 miles and 20 mph,
respectively. In addition, hazards associated with tropical storms
extend well away from the center of circulation. Users should
therefore consult local forecasts from the National Weather Service
Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo for
information specific to the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 15.1N 131.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.6N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.3N 136.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.9N 139.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.5N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 18.4N 147.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 19.5N 152.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-08-01 14:53

WTPZ32 KNHC 011450
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 AM HST THU AUG 01 2019

...FLOSSIE HOLDING STEADY AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH....


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 131.6W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2435 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 131.6 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, FLOSSIE SHOULD CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-08-01 14:52

WTPZ22 KNHC 011449 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC THU AUG 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 131.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 131.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.6N 133.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 136.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 139.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 142.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.4N 147.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.5N 152.5W

>

2019-08-01 14:51

WTPZ22 KNHC 011449
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC THU AUG 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 131.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 131.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.6N 133.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 136.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 139.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 142.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.4N 147.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.5N 152.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 155.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 131.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-08-01 09:01

WTPN32 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 129.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 129.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.3N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.0N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.7N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.4N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.5N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.5N 151.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 130.5W.
01AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1670
NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z,
020400Z AND 021000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-01 08:42

WTPZ42 KNHC 010839 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 PM HST WED JUL 31 2019

AN ASCAT-B OVERPASS FROM 0527 UTC WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING FLOSSIE'S
CENTER AND DIAGNOSING THE STILL-ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. AT THE
TIME, THE CENTER WAS LOCATED BENEATH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -76
DEGREES CELSIUS, BUT THAT CONVECTION HAS SINCE FADED AWAY DUE TO
THE RESULT OF ONGOING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS, SATCON, AND THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALL SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

RESTRENGTHENING OF FLOSSIE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS, MID-LEVEL SHEAR BELOW THE OUTFLOW LAYER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
DISRUPTING THE VORTEX, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY FALLING BY ABOUT A DEGREE. THIS PROBABLY MEANS THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT FAVOR
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. JUST ABOUT EVERY INTENSITY
MODEL EITHER HOLDS A STEADY INTENSITY OR SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE THE
ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION (AND IT'S ONLY 5
KT, AT THAT). THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE HOLDS
FLOSSIE'S 55-KT INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS, WHICH STILL ENDS UP
BEING HIGHER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON DAYS 4 AND 5,
FLOSSIE RUNS INTO THE TEETH OF DEEPER-LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING, IF IT HASN'T
STARTED ALREADY.

FLOSSIE HAS TAKEN ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 285/14 KT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE

>

2019-08-01 08:41

WTPZ42 KNHC 010839
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 31 2019

An ASCAT-B overpass from 0527 UTC was helpful in locating Flossie's
center and diagnosing the still-asymmetric wind field. At the
time, the center was located beneath very cold cloud tops of -76
degrees Celsius, but that convection has since faded away due to
the result of ongoing north-northwesterly shear. Dvorak Current
Intensity numbers, SATCON, and the scatterometer data all support
maintaining the 55-kt initial intensity.

Restrengthening of Flossie is no longer expected. For the next 3
days, mid-level shear below the outflow layer is likely to continue
disrupting the vortex, and sea surface temperatures will be
gradually falling by about a degree. This probably means the
cyclone will continue producing bursts of deep convection that favor
the eastern side of the circulation. Just about every intensity
model either holds a steady intensity or shows slow weakening
during the next few days, with the Florida State Superensemble the
only model really showing any re-intensification (and it's only 5
kt, at that). The new NHC intensity forecast therefore holds
Flossie's 55-kt intensity through 72 hours, which still ends up
being higher than the model consensus. On days 4 and 5,
Flossie runs into the teeth of deeper-layer westerly shear near the
Hawaiian Islands, which is likely to cause weakening, if it hasn't
started already.

Flossie has taken on a more west-northwestward trajectory, with an
initial motion of 285/14 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north of the
cyclone is expected to be stationary but weaken, which should cause
this heading to persist for the next 4 days with some reduction in
speed. By the end of the forecast period, a deep-layer trough
north of the Hawaiian Islands will influence the steering flow,
causing Flossie to turn northwestward on day 5. The overall
guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward, thus the new NHC
track forecast is a little north of the previous forecast, most in
line with the HCCA guidance and the TVCX model consensus.

Although models have trended toward a track just north of the
Hawaiian Islands, we want to remind users that 5-day forecast
positions and intensities have average errors of about 200 miles and
20 mph, respectively. In addition, hazards associated with tropical
storms extend well away from the center of circulation. Users
should therefore consult local forecasts from the National Weather
Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo
for information specific to the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.7N 130.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.3N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.4N 141.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.5N 146.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 19.5N 151.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 22.0N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-08-01 08:40

WTPZ22 KNHC 010837 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 129.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 132.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.4N 141.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 146.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-08-01 08:40

WTPN32 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 128.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 128.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.7N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.4N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.0N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.6N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.7N 145.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.5N 150.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.0N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 129.1W.
01AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1584
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z. REFER TO
HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-01 08:39

WTPZ32 KNHC 010838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 31 2019

...FLOSSIE'S INTENSITY EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 130.2W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1675 MI...2700 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 130.2 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
heading with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next several days. On the forecast track, Flossie should cross
into the central Pacific basin on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-08-01 08:39

WTPZ22 KNHC 010837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 129.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 132.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.4N 141.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 146.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.5N 151.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 130.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-08-01 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 010356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 35.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.08.2019 11.0N 35.1W WEAK
12UTC 01.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 149.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.08.2019 14.6N 149.1W MODERATE
12UTC 01.08.2019 14.7N 152.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.08.2019 15.0N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 15.3N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 15.6N 159.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 16.2N 162.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 17.0N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 17.6N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 18.7N 167.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2019 19.7N 169.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 20.5N 169.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2019 21.4N 170.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2019 22.3N 171.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 128.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.08.2019 13.9N 128.1W MODERATE
12UTC 01.08.2019 14.7N 130.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 15.5N 134.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 16.0N 137.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 16.7N 140.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 17.2N 142.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 17.8N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 18.1N 147.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.08.2019 18.8N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2019 19.8N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 21.5N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2019 23.9N 156.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2019 25.8N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.6N 57.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.08.2019 15.6N 57.7W WEAK
12UTC 05.08.2019 16.2N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 17.5N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2019 18.6N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010356

>

2019-08-01 02:38

WTPZ42 KNHC 010235 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 PM HST WED JUL 31 2019

FLOSSIE IS STRUGGLING THIS EVENING, WITH ALMOST ALL OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER, THE BURSTS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS
55 KT, SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AS USUAL, IS CHALLENGING THIS EVENING. SHEAR
IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN MODERATE/STRONG OVERNIGHT, SO SOME WEAKENING
IS SHOWN THEN. AFTERWARD, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH
SATURDAY, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD KEEP THE STORM IN A HIGHER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM ONLY A SIMPLE 850-200 MB
SHEAR CALCULATION. INTENSITY MODELS ARE ALSO LOWER THAN THE LAST
CYCLE. HOWEVER, A FEW OF THE MODELS MAKE FLOSSIE A HURRICANE AGAIN.
THIS ISN'T A PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT SCENARIO, SO IT IS USUALLY
WISE TO BE CONSERVATIVE WHEN CHANGING THE FORECAST. THUS, THE WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS ONLY ABOUT 5 KT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS STILL HIGHER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS, ESPECIALLY AT LONG RANGE, AND FURTHER DOWNWARD
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 14 KT, STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT STRETCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS RIDGE SHOULD STEER FLOSSIE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

>

2019-08-01 02:37

WTPZ42 KNHC 010235
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 PM HST Wed Jul 31 2019

Flossie is struggling this evening, with almost all of its deep
convection in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. While
some thunderstorms have recently formed closer to the low-level
center, the bursts have not been able to maintain themselves due to
northwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus
55 kt, so that will be the initial wind speed.

The intensity forecast, as usual, is challenging this evening. Shear
is predicted to remain moderate/strong overnight, so some weakening
is shown then. Afterward, while the upper-level wind pattern looks
like it will become more conducive for strengthening through
Saturday, the mid-level flow could keep the storm in a higher shear
environment than would be expected from only a simple 850-200 mb
shear calculation. Intensity models are also lower than the last
cycle; however, a few of the models make Flossie a hurricane again.
This isn't a particularly confident scenario, so it is usually
wise to be conservative when changing the forecast. Thus, the wind
speed forecast is only about 5 kt lower than the previous one
through 72 hours. The new NHC forecast is still higher than the
model consensus, especially at long range, and further downward
reductions are possible overnight if trends continue.

The storm continues to move westward at 14 kt, steered by a
deep-layer ridge that stretches across much of the eastern Pacific.
This ridge should steer Flossie westward to west-northwestward
during the next several days. Model guidance shows less of a
reduction in forward speed during the next 5 days than the last
cycle, perhaps due to the now-weaker cyclone being more steered by
the lower-level flow. Thus the new forecast is faster than the
previous one, but lies basically along the previous NHC track. There
is considerable uncertainty in the 5-day position and intensity,
with average errors near 200 miles and 20 mph, respectively, so it's
best not to focus on specifics at that range.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.3N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.4N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.0N 136.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 16.6N 139.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 20.0N 154.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-08-01 02:36

WTPZ32 KNHC 010234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 PM HST WED JUL 31 2019

...FLOSSIE WEAKER BUT COULD RESTRENGTHEN....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 128.8W
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1775 MI...2855 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.8 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, FLOSSIE SHOULD ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY SOME STRENGTHENING LATER THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-08-01 02:36

WTPZ22 KNHC 010234 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0300 UTC THU AUG 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.4N 133.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 136.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.6N 139.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.1W

>

2019-08-01 02:35

WTPZ22 KNHC 010234
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0300 UTC THU AUG 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.4N 133.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 136.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.6N 139.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 154.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 128.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-31 21:51

WTPN32 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 014 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 014
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 07E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 126.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 126.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.5N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.1N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.7N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.3N 137.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.2N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.0N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3N 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 127.5W.
31JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1844
NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-31 20:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 312037 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 AM HST WED JUL 31 2019

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE IS WEAKENING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DECREASING,
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT BASED ON AVERAGE OF
THESE DATA. THIS MAKES FLOSSIE A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. VERY
RECENT ASCAT DATA ALSO SUPPORTS THIS DOWNGRADE.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT, STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
THAT STRETCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND SHOULD STEER FLOSSIE WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TRACK MODELS
ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE USUALLY
RELIABLE CONSENSUS AIDS. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND BRINGS FLOSSIE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IN
2-3 DAYS AND NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE RECENT WEAKENING OF FLOSSIE HAS BEEN SURPRISING SINCE THE SHEAR
WAS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS OBSERVED. THE POOR CURRENT
STRUCTURE AND THE ONGOING SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, AFTER THAT TIME,
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN
AND, SINCE SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM, SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN 24 AND 96 HOURS. WEAKENING
IS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ANOTHER INCREASE IN

>

2019-07-31 20:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 312037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 31 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that Flossie is weakening. The
low-level center is now clearly exposed to the west of the main
area of deep convection due to northwesterly wind shear. The
objective and subjective intensity estimates have been decreasing,
and the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt based on average of
these data. This makes Flossie a tropical storm once again. Very
recent ASCAT data also supports this downgrade.

Flossie is moving westward at 14 kt, steered by a deep-layer ridge
that stretches across much of the eastern Pacific. This ridge is
expected to remain in place and should steer Flossie westward to
west-northwestward during the next several days. The track models
are tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the usually
reliable consensus aids. This forecast is slightly faster than the
previous one, and brings Flossie into the Central Pacific basin in
2-3 days and near the Hawaiian Islands by the end of the forecast
period.

The recent weakening of Flossie has been surprising since the shear
was not expected to be as strong as observed. The poor current
structure and the ongoing shear suggests that some additional
weakening is likely in the short term. However, after that time,
the global models show a more favorable upper-level wind pattern
and, since SSTs are expected to remain sufficiently warm, some
re-strengthening seems likely between 24 and 96 hours. Weakening
is forecast by the end of the period due to another increase in
shear. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and lies near the IVCN and HCCA models. However, this
intensity forecast is of lower confidence than normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 14.0N 127.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.5N 129.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 15.1N 132.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 16.3N 137.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.2N 143.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 18.0N 148.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 19.3N 152.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-31 20:38

WTPZ32 KNHC 312036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 AM HST WED JUL 31 2019

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 127.3W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1875 MI...3020 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, AND FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-31 20:38

WTPZ22 KNHC 312036 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.3W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.3W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 129.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.3N 137.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.2N 143.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-07-31 20:37

WTPZ22 KNHC 312036
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.3W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.3W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 129.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.3N 137.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.2N 143.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.3N 152.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 127.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2019-07-31 16:11

WTPN32 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 125.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 125.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.5N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.2N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.8N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.2N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.2N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.8N 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.0N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 126.0W.
31JUL19. HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1221 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312200Z, 010400Z,
011000Z AND 011600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-31 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 311556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.07.2019

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 146.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2019 0 14.2N 146.7W 987 59
0000UTC 01.08.2019 12 14.7N 148.8W 992 53
1200UTC 01.08.2019 24 14.8N 151.4W 999 43
0000UTC 02.08.2019 36 15.1N 154.0W 1001 33
1200UTC 02.08.2019 48 15.3N 156.4W 1001 35
0000UTC 03.08.2019 60 15.6N 158.6W 1003 35
1200UTC 03.08.2019 72 16.1N 161.1W 1005 30
0000UTC 04.08.2019 84 16.9N 163.1W 1006 29
1200UTC 04.08.2019 96 17.7N 165.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 05.08.2019 108 18.6N 166.9W 1007 28
1200UTC 05.08.2019 120 19.3N 168.3W 1007 26
0000UTC 06.08.2019 132 20.0N 169.2W 1007 24
1200UTC 06.08.2019 144 20.8N 169.7W 1006 27

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 125.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2019 0 13.3N 125.2W 987 57
0000UTC 01.08.2019 12 14.0N 128.0W 987 57
1200UTC 01.08.2019 24 14.7N 131.1W 987 57
0000UTC 02.08.2019 36 15.3N 134.3W 986 55
1200UTC 02.08.2019 48 15.8N 137.3W 983 62
0000UTC 03.08.2019 60 16.7N 140.1W 982 67
1200UTC 03.08.2019 72 17.2N 142.8W 984 59
0000UTC 04.08.2019 84 17.8N 145.5W 985 66
1200UTC 04.08.2019 96 18.3N 148.5W 995 49
0000UTC 05.08.2019 108 19.0N 151.2W 1000 42
1200UTC 05.08.2019 120 20.0N 153.3W 1001 44
0000UTC 06.08.2019 132 21.4N 155.1W 1005 42
1200UTC 06.08.2019 144 23.2N 157.3W 1008 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.1N 124.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2019 84 13.4N 125.6W 1007 26
1200UTC 04.08.2019 96 13.6N 127.5W 1007 26
0000UTC 05.08.2019 108 14.2N 129.1W 1007 25
1200UTC 05.08.2019 120 14.7N 130.9W 1008 25
0000UTC 06.08.2019 132 14.8N 132.4W 1009 26
1200UTC 06.08.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.0N 53.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2019 96 16.0N 53.4W 1013 25
0000UTC 05.08.2019 108 16.7N 56.0W 1011 29
1200UTC 05.08.2019 120 17.1N 58.8W 1009 38
0000UTC 06.08.2019 132 18.1N 61.4W 1008 43
1200UTC 06.08.2019 144 19.2N 63.5W 1005 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 33.7N 75.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2019 96 33.7N 75.0W 1011 26
0000UTC 05.08.2019 108 35.2N 70.3W 1010 30
1200UTC 05.08.2019 120 36.3N 64.0W 1007 36
0000UTC 06.08.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311556

>

2019-07-31 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 311556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.07.2019

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 146.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.07.2019 14.2N 146.7W MODERATE
00UTC 01.08.2019 14.7N 148.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.08.2019 14.8N 151.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.08.2019 15.1N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 15.3N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 15.6N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 16.1N 161.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 16.9N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 17.7N 165.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 18.6N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2019 19.3N 168.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 20.0N 169.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2019 20.8N 169.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 125.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.07.2019 13.3N 125.2W MODERATE
00UTC 01.08.2019 14.0N 128.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2019 14.7N 131.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 15.3N 134.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 15.8N 137.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 16.7N 140.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 17.2N 142.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 17.8N 145.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 18.3N 148.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.08.2019 19.0N 151.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2019 20.0N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 21.4N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2019 23.2N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.1N 124.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.08.2019 13.4N 125.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.08.2019 13.6N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 14.2N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2019 14.7N 130.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 14.8N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.0N 53.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.08.2019 16.0N 53.4W WEAK
00UTC 05.08.2019 16.7N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2019 17.1N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 18.1N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2019 19.2N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 33.7N 75.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.08.2019 33.7N 75.0W WEAK
00UTC 05.08.2019 35.2N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2019 36.3N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311556

>

2019-07-31 14:39

WTPZ42 KNHC 311436 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 AM HST WED JUL 31 2019

FLOSSIE HAS THE STRUCTURE OF A STRONGLY SHEARED CYCLONE. SEVERAL
RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE REVEALED THAT FLOSSIE'S CENTER IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION, AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CI
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KT, HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT FLOSSIE IS WEAKER THAN
THAT.

GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE (OR LACK THEREOF), A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 H OR SO AND FLOSSIE IS NOW FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THAT TIME. IN FACT, THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FLOSSIE WILL MERELY GRADUALLY
WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN A FEW DAYS, SO SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST NOW
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 H AND THEN BLENDS
BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 72 H AND BEYOND, STILL FAVORING
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT THAT TIME.

ON THE OTHER HAND, VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED TO THE TRACK
FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13 KT, AND A PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP FLOSSIE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT A STEADY FORWARD SPEED FOR THE

>

2019-07-31 14:38

WTPZ42 KNHC 311436
TCDEP2

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 AM HST Wed Jul 31 2019

Flossie has the structure of a strongly sheared cyclone. Several
recent microwave passes have revealed that Flossie's center is
displaced to the northwest of all of its deep convection, and IR
imagery shows a sharp cloud-top temperature gradient in the
northwest quadrant of the hurricane. A blend of Final-T and CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB is the basis for the initial intensity of
65 kt, however it is certainly possible that Flossie is weaker than
that.

Given the current structure of Flossie (or lack thereof), a
substantial change was made to the intensity forecast. The global
models indicate that the current shear affecting the cyclone will
likely continue for another 24 h or so and Flossie is now forecast
to become a tropical storm during that time. In fact, the
statistical guidance suggests that Flossie will merely gradually
weaken for the next 5 days. On the other hand, the GFS, ECMWF, and
regional hurricane models indicate that the upper-level environment
could become more favorable in a few days, so some
re-intensification is possible at that time. The NHC forecast now
closely follows the intensity consensus through 48 h and then blends
back toward the previous forecast at 72 h and beyond, still favoring
the dynamical models at that time.

On the other hand, very little adjustment was required to the track
forecast. The initial motion is 285/13 kt, and a persistent
mid-level ridge to the north should keep Flossie moving
west-northwestward or westward at a steady forward speed for the
next 4 to 5 days. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered,
and the NHC forecast is very close the typically reliable TVCE and
HCCA aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 14.0N 125.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 15.2N 130.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 15.8N 133.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 16.2N 135.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.2N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 146.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-07-31 14:38

WTPZ32 KNHC 311435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 AM HST WED JUL 31 2019

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS...
...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 125.8W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1975 MI...3175 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.8 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL-STORM
STRENGTH LATER TODAY. RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK,
AND FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN IN A FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-31 14:37

WTPZ22 KNHC 311435 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 125.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 125.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.2N 135.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 141.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-31 14:37

WTPZ22 KNHC 311435
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 125.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 125.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.2N 135.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 141.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 146.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 125.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-31 09:51

WTPN32 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.3N 123.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 123.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.1N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.5N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.1N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.2N 139.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.0N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 124.6W.
31JUL19. HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1221 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND
011000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-31 08:42

WTPZ42 KNHC 310839 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 30 2019

HIGH-RESOLUTION WINDSAT IMAGERY FROM 0227 UTC GAVE QUITE A
SURPRISE WHEN IT ARRIVED A FEW HOURS AGO: FLOSSIE IS NOT AS
ORGANIZED AS IT SEEMED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DISPLACED
ABOUT 40 N MI TO THE WEST OF OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE TOPS AND
MID-LEVEL ROTATION SEEN IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES, THE RESULT OF
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. A 0513 UTC ASCAT-C PASS ALSO
REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH NO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 70 KT, MAINLY FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY, BUT THE ASCAT DATA AND
RECENT SATCON ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE LOWER.

FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (285 DEGREES), NOW AT A
SPEED OF 13 KT. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 24N IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS, WITH THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT A STEADY CLIP FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED, AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE-APPARENT INITIAL
POSITION.

IT'S DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO SEE HOW FLOSSIE WILL BE ABLE TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH IN THE COMING DAYS. THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE IS
ALREADY SUFFERING FROM THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR, AND DIAGNOSTICS FROM
THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE FURTHER, OR
AT LEAST HOLD STEADY, DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE'S AN

>

2019-07-31 08:41

WTPZ42 KNHC 310839
TCDEP2

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

High-resolution WindSat imagery from 0227 UTC gave quite a
surprise when it arrived a few hours ago: Flossie is not as
organized as it seemed. The low-level center was displaced
about 40 n mi to the west of overshooting convective tops and
mid-level rotation seen in infrared satellite images, the result of
moderate to strong westerly shear. A 0513 UTC ASCAT-C pass also
revealed an asymmetric wind field, with no tropical-storm-force
winds in the southwestern quadrant. The initial intensity is held
at 70 kt, mainly for the sake of continuity, but the ASCAT data and
recent SATCON estimates suggest that it could be lower.

Flossie continues to move west-northwestward (285 degrees), now at a
speed of 13 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge centered along 24N is
forecast to build westward toward the Hawaiian Islands over the
next 3 days, with the flow on the southern side expected to keep
Flossie moving west-northwestward or westward at a steady clip for
the entire forecast period. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the new NHC forecast has only been nudged northward
from the previous one to account for the more-apparent initial
position.

It's difficult at the moment to see how Flossie will be able to
strengthen much in the coming days. The cyclone's structure is
already suffering from the effects of shear, and diagnostics from
the SHIPS model suggest that the shear could increase further, or
at least hold steady, during the next 48 hours. There's an
opportunity for the shear to decrease a bit in 2-3 days, but by
that time, Flossie will have reached marginally warm waters with
little to no ocean heat content. Given these less-than-ideal
environmental factors, the NHC intensity forecast has again been
reduced from the previous one, and it generally lies between the
HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble. This solution is still
near the high end of the guidance envelope and above the
conventional intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 13.5N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 14.1N 126.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.8N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 15.5N 131.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.2N 139.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 18.0N 145.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-07-31 08:41

WTPZ32 KNHC 310838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

...FLOSSIE FIGHTING AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 124.4W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2075 MI...3335 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 124.4 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 2 to 3 days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) to the
northeast of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-07-31 08:41

WTPZ22 KNHC 310838 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.4W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.4W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 123.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.8N 128.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.5N 131.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.2N 139.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

>

2019-07-31 08:39

WTPZ22 KNHC 310838
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.4W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.4W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 123.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.8N 128.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.5N 131.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.2N 139.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 145.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 124.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2019-07-31 03:57

WTNT82 EGRR 310355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.07.2019

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 144.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2019 0 13.8N 144.6W 984 58
1200UTC 31.07.2019 12 14.4N 146.6W 987 61
0000UTC 01.08.2019 24 14.7N 148.8W 994 51
1200UTC 01.08.2019 36 15.0N 151.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 02.08.2019 48 15.3N 154.0W 1001 34
1200UTC 02.08.2019 60 15.6N 156.3W 1002 36
0000UTC 03.08.2019 72 16.1N 158.4W 1003 36
1200UTC 03.08.2019 84 16.6N 160.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 04.08.2019 96 17.3N 163.1W 1006 32
1200UTC 04.08.2019 108 18.0N 165.2W 1007 29
0000UTC 05.08.2019 120 18.8N 166.9W 1007 30
1200UTC 05.08.2019 132 19.3N 168.5W 1007 28
0000UTC 06.08.2019 144 20.0N 169.6W 1007 29

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 122.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2019 0 12.2N 122.4W 985 59
1200UTC 31.07.2019 12 12.8N 125.0W 979 67
0000UTC 01.08.2019 24 13.6N 128.0W 983 57
1200UTC 01.08.2019 36 14.0N 131.1W 983 59
0000UTC 02.08.2019 48 14.7N 134.1W 977 62
1200UTC 02.08.2019 60 15.5N 137.3W 974 67
0000UTC 03.08.2019 72 16.3N 140.5W 975 68
1200UTC 03.08.2019 84 17.0N 143.7W 977 66
0000UTC 04.08.2019 96 17.8N 146.7W 977 66
1200UTC 04.08.2019 108 18.6N 149.6W 988 57
0000UTC 05.08.2019 120 19.7N 152.0W 992 53
1200UTC 05.08.2019 132 21.1N 153.5W 984 66
0000UTC 06.08.2019 144 22.8N 154.8W 987 58

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.0N 122.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.08.2019 72 13.0N 122.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 03.08.2019 84 13.0N 124.2W 1005 31
0000UTC 04.08.2019 96 13.4N 126.5W 1005 31
1200UTC 04.08.2019 108 13.6N 128.4W 1006 28
0000UTC 05.08.2019 120 13.8N 130.4W 1006 28
1200UTC 05.08.2019 132 14.2N 132.4W 1007 26
0000UTC 06.08.2019 144 14.7N 134.1W 1008 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.0N 56.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2019 132 17.0N 56.5W 1014 25
0000UTC 06.08.2019 144 18.1N 59.5W 1013 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310355

>

2019-07-31 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 310355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.07.2019

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 144.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.07.2019 13.8N 144.6W MODERATE
12UTC 31.07.2019 14.4N 146.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2019 14.7N 148.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.08.2019 15.0N 151.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.08.2019 15.3N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 15.6N 156.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 16.1N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 16.6N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 17.3N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 18.0N 165.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 18.8N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2019 19.3N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 20.0N 169.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 122.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.07.2019 12.2N 122.4W MODERATE
12UTC 31.07.2019 12.8N 125.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.08.2019 13.6N 128.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.08.2019 14.0N 131.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 14.7N 134.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.08.2019 15.5N 137.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 16.3N 140.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 17.0N 143.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 17.8N 146.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 18.6N 149.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.08.2019 19.7N 152.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2019 21.1N 153.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.08.2019 22.8N 154.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.0N 122.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.08.2019 13.0N 122.3W WEAK
12UTC 03.08.2019 13.0N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 13.4N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 13.6N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 13.8N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2019 14.2N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2019 14.7N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.0N 56.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.08.2019 17.0N 56.5W WEAK
00UTC 06.08.2019 18.1N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310355

>

2019-07-31 03:38

WTPN32 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 122.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 122.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.3N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.0N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.7N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.5N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.7N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.5N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.0N 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 122.8W.
31JUL19. HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1236 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND
010400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-31 02:36

WTPZ42 KNHC 310233 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 PM HST TUE JUL 30 2019

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE
NEAR THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES TO -92C
OBSERVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE
CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF THOSE OVERSHOOTING TOPS, AND ABOUT HALF A
RAGGED EYEWALL IS PRESENT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 70
KT, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY CLOSING OFF A COMPLETE
EYEWALL, LIKELY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AS
INDICATED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME OF THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE ERICK
IMPACTING FLOSSIE, AND THE PREDICTED NHC INTENSITY BRIEFLY LEVELS
OFF ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO BECOME
LIGHTER, BUT THE CENTER IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO A HIGH-SHEAR
REGION, SO ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT SINCE THE LAST CYCLE, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE IFFY ENVIRONMENT, SO THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED
ABOUT 5 KT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER 3
DAYS, THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING AFTER CONSIDERING
MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR,
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY.

A 0107 UTC SSMI/S PASS NICELY SHOWS THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE, WHICH
HELPS TO GIVE A MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF 285/12. A

>

2019-07-31 02:36

WTPZ22 KNHC 310233 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0300 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.6W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.6W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 138.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

>

2019-07-31 02:35

WTPZ42 KNHC 310233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

Satellite images indicate that deep convection continues to pulse
near the center of Flossie, with cloud-top temperatures to -92C
observed during the past several hours. Microwave data show the
center is just south of those overshooting tops, and about half a
ragged eyewall is present. The initial wind speed is raised to 70
kt, which is a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB/SAB.

The cyclone continues to have difficulty closing off a complete
eyewall, likely due to northwesterly shear and some dry air aloft as
indicated by outflow boundaries noted in the northern semicircle.
The environment is forecast to become less conducive late on
Wednesday, possibly due to some of the outflow from Hurricane Erick
impacting Flossie, and the predicted NHC intensity briefly levels
off on Thursday. Thereafter, the upper-level winds do become
lighter, but the center is still fairly close to a high-shear
region, so only slight intensification is shown. Model guidance has
generally come down quite a bit since the last cycle, which is
consistent with the iffy environment, so the NHC forecast is reduced
about 5 kt from the previous one in the first 48 hours. After 3
days, the NHC forecast indicates slow weakening after considering
marginal water temperatures and light/moderate westerly shear,
although it should be mentioned the models are in poor agreement on
the long-range intensity.

A 0107 UTC SSMI/S pass nicely shows the center of Flossie, which
helps to give a more confident initial motion of 285/12. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to be the
primary steering during the next several days, yielding a general
west-northwest motion. A turn to the west is probable at long-range
since the ridge builds westward ahead of the cyclone. The models
remain in fairly good agreement, so the latest NHC track forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, shaded a bit toward the
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 12.8N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 15.5N 132.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 16.7N 138.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 17.5N 143.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 18.0N 148.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-31 02:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 310233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

...FLOSSIE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 122.6W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 122.6 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-31 02:34

WTPZ22 KNHC 310233
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0300 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.6W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.6W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 138.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 143.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 148.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 122.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2019-07-30 21:21

WTPN32 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 12.2N 120.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 120.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.7N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.4N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.2N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.0N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.3N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.3N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1N 147.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 121.5W.
30JUL19. HURRICANE 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1246 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310400Z, 311000Z, 311600Z AND 312200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-30 20:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 302032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 30 2019

...FLOSSIE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 121.3W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.3 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-30 20:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 302031 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 121.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 121.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.7N 123.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.4N 125.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 130.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.3N 136.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

>

2019-07-30 20:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 302031
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 121.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 121.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.7N 123.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.4N 125.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 130.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.3N 136.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.1N 147.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 121.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-30 15:46

WTPN32 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 119.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 119.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 12.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.1N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.8N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.6N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.1N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.3N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.5N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 120.8W.
30JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1246
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-30 14:54

WTPZ42 KNHC 301452 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 AM HST TUE JUL 30 2019

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE INCREASED OVERNIGHT, AND THE
CYCLONE'S CLOUD-TOP PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. HOWEVER, AMSR
DATA FROM ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION WAS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE,
INDICATIVE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR, AND AN SSMIS PASS AT 1213 APPEARED TO
CONFIRM THAT THIS IS STILL THE CASE. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT AND 65 KT, RESPECTIVELY, SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF FLOSSIE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT, AS A
COMPROMISE OF THOSE TWO ASSESSMENTS.

OVERALL, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST
REASONING. FLOSSIE IS MOVING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, AND THE MODEL SPREAD IS LOW.
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
NEAR THE VARIOUS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.

CONVERSELY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
FLOSSIE APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS IN A MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY, AND THE HWRF EVEN EXPLICITLY
FORECASTS THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. AN INCREASE IN
NORTHERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 48 H COULD THEN INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR
COULD DECREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SPREAD

>

2019-07-30 14:54

WTPZ42 KNHC 301452
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 AM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

Convection associated with Flossie increased overnight, and the
cyclone's cloud-top pattern has become more symmetric. However, AMSR
data from about 6 hours ago indicated that most of the deep
convection was limited to the southern semicircle of the cyclone,
indicative of northerly shear, and an SSMIS pass at 1213 appeared to
confirm that this is still the case. The latest Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, so
the initial intensity of Flossie has been increased to 60 kt, as a
compromise of those two assessments.

Overall, there is little change in the track or intensity forecast
reasoning. Flossie is moving westward on the south side of a broad
mid-level ridge that extends across most of the eastern Pacific.
All of the guidance indicates that Flossie will move generally
west-northwestward for the next 5 days, and the model spread is low.
Very little changes were made to the NHC track forecast which is
near the various multi-model consensus aids, and confidence in the
track forecast is high.

Conversely, there is low confidence in the intensity forecast.
Flossie appears to have about 36 to 48 hours in a marginally
conducive environment to intensify, and the HWRF even explicitly
forecasts that rapid intensification could occur. An increase in
northerly shear in about 48 h could then inhibit further
intensification, however the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the shear
could decrease again by the end of the forecast period. The spread
in the intensity guidance is very high, particularly beyond 48 h,
with the dynamical models generally higher than the statistical
guidance. No major changes were made to the intensity forecast,
which is near HCCA and FSSE at all forecast hours, however larger
changes could be required in future advisories given the high
uncertainty in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 12.2N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 12.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 13.1N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.8N 127.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 14.6N 130.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 16.1N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 17.3N 141.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 18.5N 147.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-07-30 14:53

WTPZ32 KNHC 301451
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 AM HST TUE JUL 30 2019

...FLOSSIE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...
...WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 120.5W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). THE TROPICAL STORM
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY, AND THEN
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND
COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-30 14:53

WTPZ22 KNHC 301451 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 120.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 120.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 119.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.6N 130.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N 136.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-30 14:52

WTPZ22 KNHC 301451
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 120.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 120.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 119.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.6N 130.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N 136.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.3N 141.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 120.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-07-30 10:03

WTPN32 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 12.1N 118.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 118.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.3N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.8N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.6N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.3N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.1N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.5N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.5N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 119.5W.
30JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1239
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-30 08:36

WTPZ42 KNHC 300833 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 PM HST MON JUL 29 2019

FLOSSIE'S OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DRY AIR EVIDENT OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE THAT IS ENTRAINING INTO THE STORM'S CIRCULATION
AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT 10 KT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION BEING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT, WHICH IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST,
OR 265/15 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FLOSSIE IS
STEERED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

RECENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. IF THIS TREND WERE TO
CONTINUE, THEN STRENGTHENING WOULD LIKELY RESUME IN THE NEAR TERM.
THERE IS ABOUT A 48-HOUR WINDOW REMAINING FOR FLOSSIE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY IN A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
LASTEST SHIPS MODEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX (RII) SHOWS A
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FLOSSIE TO INTENSIFY BY 25 KT
OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER, FLOSSIE WILL NEED TO CONSOLIDATE ITS

>

2019-07-30 08:35

WTPZ42 KNHC 300833
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Flossie's overall appearance has not changed much over the past
several hours. There continues to be some dry air evident over the
northern semicircle that is entraining into the storm's circulation
and the SHIPS guidance also suggests there is about 10 kt of
northerly shear across the system. This has resulted in most of the
deep convection being confined to the southern semicircle for
much of tonight. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is in
agreement with the latest subjective satellite intensity estimates
from both TAFB and SAB.

The motion over the past 12 hours has been just south of due west,
or 265/15 kt. A turn to the west to west-northwest is expected by
later today or tonight and this general motion is expected to
continue for the remainder of the forecast period as Flossie is
steered by a broad mid-level ridge to its north. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast track is
very close to the previous one.

Recently, deep convection has been trying to wrap around the
northeastern portion of the circulation. If this trend were to
continue, then strengthening would likely resume in the near term.
There is about a 48-hour window remaining for Flossie to
significantly intensify in a fairly favorable environment. The
lastest SHIPS model Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a
greater than 50 percent chance for Flossie to intensify by 25 kt
over a 24 hour period. However, Flossie will need to consolidate its
inner core soon if this rapid strengthening is to occur. The
official NHC forecast calls for steady strengthening through much of
today, followed by a 24 hour period of more rapid strengthening that
would make Flossie a category 3 hurricane in 48 hours. After 48
hours, increasing shear and marginal SSTs are expected to cause a
weakening trend to begin. The official intensity forecast is close
to the previous forecast as well as the NOAA corrected consensus,
HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 12.2N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 12.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 12.8N 123.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 13.6N 126.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 14.3N 129.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-07-30 08:35

WTPZ22 KNHC 300832 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 119.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 119.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 118.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.8N 123.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.6N 126.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 129.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-30 08:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 300833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 119.3W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 119.3 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a turn to the
west-northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Flossie is expected to strengthen to a hurricane later
today, and then is forecast to become a major hurricane Wednesday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-07-30 08:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 300832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 119.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 119.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 118.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.8N 123.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.6N 126.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 129.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 119.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-07-30 03:56

WTNT82 EGRR 300355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 69.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2019 0 13.5N 69.5W 1010 27
1200UTC 30.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 139.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2019 0 12.5N 139.4W 990 52
1200UTC 30.07.2019 12 13.0N 142.1W 986 56
0000UTC 31.07.2019 24 13.9N 144.4W 985 56
1200UTC 31.07.2019 36 14.4N 146.5W 986 55
0000UTC 01.08.2019 48 15.0N 148.4W 988 57
1200UTC 01.08.2019 60 15.4N 150.4W 990 56
0000UTC 02.08.2019 72 15.8N 152.6W 995 49
1200UTC 02.08.2019 84 15.9N 154.9W 999 42
0000UTC 03.08.2019 96 16.3N 157.1W 1002 37
1200UTC 03.08.2019 108 16.7N 159.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2019 120 17.5N 161.2W 1006 29
1200UTC 04.08.2019 132 18.3N 162.9W 1007 28
0000UTC 05.08.2019 144 19.4N 164.5W 1007 28

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2019 0 12.2N 117.0W 1001 34
1200UTC 30.07.2019 12 12.0N 120.0W 994 43
0000UTC 31.07.2019 24 12.2N 122.8W 993 47
1200UTC 31.07.2019 36 13.0N 125.6W 993 46
0000UTC 01.08.2019 48 13.9N 128.7W 994 44
1200UTC 01.08.2019 60 14.7N 132.2W 994 48
0000UTC 02.08.2019 72 15.7N 135.4W 996 42
1200UTC 02.08.2019 84 16.6N 138.3W 995 46
0000UTC 03.08.2019 96 17.7N 141.3W 997 43
1200UTC 03.08.2019 108 18.9N 144.2W 1000 42
0000UTC 04.08.2019 120 20.0N 146.9W 1003 40
1200UTC 04.08.2019 132 21.1N 149.6W 1006 33
0000UTC 05.08.2019 144 22.2N 151.9W 1007 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.2N 119.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2019 84 13.2N 119.6W 1006 27
0000UTC 03.08.2019 96 13.8N 121.7W 1003 34
1200UTC 03.08.2019 108 14.5N 123.3W 999 41
0000UTC 04.08.2019 120 15.2N 125.1W 997 46
1200UTC 04.08.2019 132 15.7N 126.8W 998 43
0000UTC 05.08.2019 144 16.1N 129.0W 991 55


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300355

>

2019-07-30 03:56

WTNT80 EGRR 300355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 69.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2019 13.5N 69.5W WEAK
12UTC 30.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 139.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2019 12.5N 139.4W MODERATE
12UTC 30.07.2019 13.0N 142.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2019 13.9N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2019 14.4N 146.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2019 15.0N 148.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2019 15.4N 150.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 15.8N 152.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.08.2019 15.9N 154.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 16.3N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 16.7N 159.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 17.5N 161.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 18.3N 162.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 19.4N 164.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2019 12.2N 117.0W WEAK
12UTC 30.07.2019 12.0N 120.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.07.2019 12.2N 122.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2019 13.0N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2019 13.9N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2019 14.7N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 15.7N 135.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 16.6N 138.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 17.7N 141.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 18.9N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 20.0N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 21.1N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 22.2N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.2N 119.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.08.2019 13.2N 119.6W WEAK
00UTC 03.08.2019 13.8N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 14.5N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 15.2N 125.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 15.7N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2019 16.1N 129.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300355

>

2019-07-30 03:22

WTPN32 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 117.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 117.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.4N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 12.8N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.3N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.1N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.9N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.4N 139.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.5N 144.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 118.0W.
30JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1224
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-30 02:47

WTPZ42 KNHC 300244 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 PM HST MON JUL 29 2019

FLOSSIE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE, INFRARED, AND MICROWAVE
CHANNELS HAS STEADILY IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL CDO FEATURE. HOWEVER, NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO HURRICANE ERICK THIS TIME LAST NIGHT, FLOSSIE'S
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MIGRATED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION AND IS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.
SIMILARLY, FLOSSIE IS BEING AFFECTED BY OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR AND SOME NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT IS UNDERCUTTING THE
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB, T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB, AND T3.9/63 KT AND 60 KT
FROM UW-CIMMS ADT AND SATCON, RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD OR 270/15 KT. DESPITE THE
RECENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD JOG -- DEJA VU ERICK LAST NIGHT -- THE
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT FLOSSIE WILL MOVE WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, MAINLY DUE TO THE
MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION, AND LIES BETWEEN THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY ECMWF MODEL.

IF NOT FOR DRY AIR MID-LEVEL OCCASIONALLY WRAPPING INTO THE

>

2019-07-30 02:46

WTPZ42 KNHC 300244
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Flossie's satellite appearance in visible, infrared, and microwave
channels has steadily improved since the previous advisory,
including the development of a small CDO feature. However, nearly
identical to Hurricane Erick this time last night, Flossie's
low-level center has migrated southward toward the strongest
convection and is positioned just north of the coldest cloud tops.
Similarly, Flossie is being affected by occasional intrusions of dry
air and some northerly mid-level wind shear that is undercutting the
otherwise favorable upper-level outflow pattern. The initial
intensity of 55 kt is based on a blend of satellite estimates of
T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt from SAB, and T3.9/63 kt and 60 kt
from UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON, respectively.

The initial motion estimate is westward or 270/15 kt. Despite the
recent west-southwestward jog -- deja vu Erick last night -- the
models are in excellent agreement that Flossie will move westward
for the next 24 hours along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on
Wednesday, with that motion continuing through the remainder of the
forecast period. The new official forecast track is south of and
slightly faster than the previous advisory track, mainly due to the
more southerly initial position, and lies between the tightly
clustered consensus models and the more southerly ECMWF model.

If not for dry air mid-level occasionally wrapping into the
hurricane's inner core, Flossie would be poised to rapidly intensify
as per the lastest SHIPS model Rapid Intensification Index (RII).
However, similar to Hurricane Erick, the best course of action is to
just show steady strengthening until a more persistent RI signal
becomes evident. Thus, Flossie is forecast to gradually intensify
into a category 3 hurricane by 72 hours, followed by a near-steady
state condition thereafter due to Flossie moving across cooler
water, which is bounded by the 26C and 26.5C SST isotherms. The
official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory, and is close to a blend of the NOAA HCCA and the Florida
State Superensemble consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 12.3N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 12.4N 119.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 12.8N 122.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 13.3N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 14.1N 127.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 15.9N 133.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 17.4N 139.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 18.5N 144.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-30 02:45

WTPZ32 KNHC 300243
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 PM HST MON JUL 29 2019

...FLOSSIE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 117.8W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY,
FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND MAINTAIN
THAT MOTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-30 02:45

WTPZ22 KNHC 300243 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0300 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 117.8W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 117.8W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.4N 119.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.8N 122.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 125.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.1N 127.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.9N 133.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-30 02:44

WTPZ22 KNHC 300243
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0300 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 117.8W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 117.8W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.4N 119.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.8N 122.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 125.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.1N 127.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.9N 133.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 139.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 18.5N 144.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 117.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2019-07-29 21:47

WTPN32 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 115.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 115.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.4N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.6N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.2N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.8N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.5N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.0N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.3N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 116.4W.
29JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1215
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-29 20:36

WTPZ42 KNHC 292033 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 AM HST MON JUL 29 2019

THE GOES-17 WATER VAPOR PRESENTATION, ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS, REVEALS THAT AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE JUST TO
THE NORTH OF FLOSSIE IS STILL PRODUCING MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS INHIBITING WIND PATTERN IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY A RECENT METOP-B
AMSU PASS THAT DEPICTED A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, ALONG WITH AN EARLIER 1517 UTC SATCON ANALYSIS, YIELD
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE IN 3 DAYS, THEN COMMENCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS, ALONG WITH
INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE NOAA HCCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE, AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 270/16 KT. A
STRONG, DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF FLOSSIE SHOULD
INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN HEDGED TOWARD THE
NOAA HCCA AND THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 12.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 12.6N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.2N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 13.8N 125.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

>

2019-07-29 20:35

WTPZ22 KNHC 292032 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 116.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 116.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.6N 120.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.2N 123.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.8N 125.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.5N 131.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-07-29 20:35

WTPZ42 KNHC 292033
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

The GOES-17 water vapor presentation, along with the upper-level
satellite-derived winds, reveals that an upper anticyclone just to
the north of Flossie is still producing modest vertical wind shear.
This inhibiting wind pattern is also confirmed by a recent METOP-B
AMSU pass that depicted a lack of deep convection in the northern
portion of the cyclone. The subjective and objective intensity
estimates, along with an earlier 1517 UTC SATCON analysis, yield
an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

Flossie is forecast to gradually intensify into a category 2
hurricane in 3 days, then commence a slow weakening trend as the
cyclone moves into a more stable and drier air mass, along with
increasing wind shear. The official intensity forecast is based on
a blend of the NOAA HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble, and is
similar to the previous package.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/16 kt. A
strong, deep-layer ridge anchored to the north of Flossie should
influence a generally westward to west-northwestward motion during
the next 5 days. The track guidance remains in very good agreement
and the official NHC track forecast is again hedged toward the
NOAA HCCA and the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 12.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 12.6N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.2N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 13.8N 125.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 15.5N 131.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 17.0N 136.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 18.3N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-07-29 20:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 292032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OPEN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 116.2W
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 116.2 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday night with some
decrease in forward speed. Afterward, Flossie is expected to turn
toward the west-northwest and maintain that motion through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and Flossie is forecast to become a
hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-07-29 20:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 292032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 116.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 116.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.6N 120.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.2N 123.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.8N 125.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.5N 131.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 136.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 116.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-07-29 16:15

WTPN32 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.5N 113.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 113.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.4N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.3N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 12.7N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.3N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.7N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.1N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.5N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 114.8W.
29JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1225
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-29 15:58

WTNT82 EGRR 291557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 66.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2019 0 14.9N 66.4W 1012 23
0000UTC 30.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 136.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2019 0 11.7N 136.0W 990 53
0000UTC 30.07.2019 12 12.2N 139.0W 984 54
1200UTC 30.07.2019 24 13.0N 142.0W 982 57
0000UTC 31.07.2019 36 13.7N 144.4W 985 54
1200UTC 31.07.2019 48 14.1N 146.5W 986 56
0000UTC 01.08.2019 60 14.5N 148.6W 985 58
1200UTC 01.08.2019 72 15.0N 150.5W 985 61
0000UTC 02.08.2019 84 15.3N 152.3W 990 56
1200UTC 02.08.2019 96 15.5N 154.2W 996 47
0000UTC 03.08.2019 108 15.9N 156.1W 1000 40
1200UTC 03.08.2019 120 16.3N 158.3W 1003 34
0000UTC 04.08.2019 132 16.9N 160.2W 1006 30
1200UTC 04.08.2019 144 17.9N 161.8W 1006 29

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2019 0 12.4N 113.9W 1006 28
0000UTC 30.07.2019 12 12.5N 117.0W 1003 32
1200UTC 30.07.2019 24 12.4N 120.2W 999 34
0000UTC 31.07.2019 36 12.6N 123.1W 997 39
1200UTC 31.07.2019 48 13.6N 125.9W 997 36
0000UTC 01.08.2019 60 14.7N 129.0W 997 41
1200UTC 01.08.2019 72 15.8N 132.2W 997 42
0000UTC 02.08.2019 84 17.0N 135.4W 998 39
1200UTC 02.08.2019 96 18.1N 138.3W 998 41
0000UTC 03.08.2019 108 19.4N 141.3W 1001 38
1200UTC 03.08.2019 120 20.6N 143.7W 1003 40
0000UTC 04.08.2019 132 22.0N 146.1W 1006 33
1200UTC 04.08.2019 144 23.2N 147.9W 1007 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 122.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2019 120 14.2N 123.8W 1005 33
0000UTC 04.08.2019 132 15.2N 126.0W 1002 39
1200UTC 04.08.2019 144 15.7N 129.1W 998 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.3N 52.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2019 132 15.3N 52.0W 1012 28
1200UTC 04.08.2019 144 15.9N 55.1W 1010 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291556

>

2019-07-29 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 291556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 66.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.07.2019 14.9N 66.4W WEAK
00UTC 30.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 136.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.07.2019 11.7N 136.0W MODERATE
00UTC 30.07.2019 12.2N 139.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.07.2019 13.0N 142.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2019 13.7N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2019 14.1N 146.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2019 14.5N 148.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2019 15.0N 150.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 15.3N 152.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.08.2019 15.5N 154.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.08.2019 15.9N 156.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.08.2019 16.3N 158.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 16.9N 160.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 17.9N 161.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.07.2019 12.4N 113.9W WEAK
00UTC 30.07.2019 12.5N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2019 12.4N 120.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2019 12.6N 123.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2019 13.6N 125.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2019 14.7N 129.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2019 15.8N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 17.0N 135.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 18.1N 138.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 19.4N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 20.6N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 22.0N 146.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 23.2N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 122.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2019 14.2N 123.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.08.2019 15.2N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2019 15.7N 129.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.3N 52.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.08.2019 15.3N 52.0W WEAK
12UTC 04.08.2019 15.9N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291556

>

2019-07-29 14:46

WTPZ42 KNHC 291443 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
500 AM HST MON JUL 29 2019

A SERIES OF FORTUITOUS MICROWAVE IMAGES WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND REVEALED SIGNIFICANT BANDING IMPROVEMENTS
IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE T-NUMBER ESTIMATES ONLY YIELD AN INTENSITY OF
35 KT, SUBSEQUENT SATCON ANALYSIS OF 50 KT AND THE ADT ESTIMATE OF
47 KT SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW, THEREFORE, STRENGTHENING
SHOULD CONTINUE AND FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24
HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DECAY SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND THE 48-HOUR
PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL THE INTENSIFICATION RATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE NOAA HCCA AND IVCN
MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS REFLECT THIS TREND, AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD JUST A BIT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY
TO AGREE WITH THESE MODELS. IT'S STILL WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT
FLOSSIE COULD UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AS INDICATED BY A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING IN
THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 270/16 KT. A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE, AND SHOULD STEER FLOSSIE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODEL
SUITE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND NO ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE

>

2019-07-29 14:45

WTPZ42 KNHC 291443
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

A series of fortuitous microwave images was helpful in locating the
center of circulation and revealed significant banding improvements
in the south semicircle portion of the cyclone. Although the
subjective satellite T-number estimates only yield an intensity of
35 kt, subsequent SATCON analysis of 50 kt and the ADT estimate of
47 kt support increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt for this
advisory.

The ocean is warm and the shear is low, therefore, strengthening
should continue and Flossie is forecast to become a hurricane in 24
hours. The GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS and the global models are
showing increasing northerly vertical shear beyond the 48-hour
period, which should curtail the intensification rate through the
remainder of the forecast period. Both the NOAA HCCA and IVCN
multi-model intensity consensus reflect this trend, and the official
forecast was adjusted downward just a bit from the last advisory
to agree with these models. It's still worth noting, however, that
Flossie could undergo rapid intensification during the next 48
hours, as indicated by a 40 percent probability of that occurring in
the SHIPS RI guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/16 kt. A
deep-layer ridge is well-established and anchored to the north of
the cyclone, and should steer Flossie generally westward to
west-northwestward through the entire forecast period. The model
suite remains tightly clustered and no adjustments have been made
to the previous forecast, which again is close to the better
performing TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 12.5N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 12.4N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 12.3N 119.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 12.7N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.1N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-07-29 14:45

WTPZ22 KNHC 291442 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.4N 116.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.3N 119.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.7N 122.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-07-29 14:44

WTPZ32 KNHC 291442
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 114.6W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 114.6 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general
motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday night with some
decrease in forward speed. Afterward, Flossie is expected to turn
toward the west-northwest and maintain this motion through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have inceased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Flossie is
expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-07-29 14:44

WTPZ22 KNHC 291442
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.4N 116.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.3N 119.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.7N 122.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N 135.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-07-29 10:18

WTPN32 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 12.5N 112.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 112.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.7N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.6N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.8N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.3N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.5N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.8N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.5N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 113.4W.
29JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1240
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-29 08:42

WTPZ42 KNHC 290840 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2019

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND COMPOSED OF
CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80 C ENVELOPING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE. A RECENT ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER PASS PARTIALLY CAPTURED THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND MEASURED WINDS OF 30 KT
OVER 75 N MI FROM THE CENTER AND IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER WINDS WERE
OCCURRING AT THAT TIME IN THE UNSAMPLED AREA CLOSER TO THE CENTER.
IN ADDITION, THE MEAN OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND THEREFORE THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17 KT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER IT WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY LATER TODAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS VERY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FLOSSIE IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO, AND IF THE CURRENT DEEP CONVECTION CAN
PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER TODAY DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, THEN THE
INNER CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR, WITH FLOSSIE BECOMING A HURRICANE SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

>

2019-07-29 08:42

WTPZ42 KNHC 290840
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019

Over the past several hours, deep convection has developed near the
center of circulation with a large curved band composed of
cloud tops as cold as -80 C enveloping the western semicircle of the
cyclone. A recent ASCAT-C scatterometer pass partially captured the
northeastern quadrant of the system and measured winds of 30 kt
over 75 n mi from the center and it is likely that higher winds were
occurring at that time in the unsampled area closer to the center.
In addition, the mean of the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates have increased to tropical storm force and therefore the
depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Flossie with an
initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion is 275/17 kt. Ridging will persist north of the
cyclone throughout the next several days which will continue to
steer it west to west-northwestward with some decrease in
forward speed by later today as the ridge weakens slightly. The
track guidance is in very good agreement and the official NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous forecast which is very
near the center of the consensus aids.

The environment around Flossie is favorable for strengthening over
the next 72 hours or so, and if the current deep convection can
persist near the center today during the diurnal minimum, then the
inner core of the cyclone will likely become well established over
the next 24 hours. This would allow for steady strengthening to
occur, with Flossie becoming a hurricane sometime on Tuesday.
Although not implicitly shown in the forecast, it is possible that
Flossie could undergo rapid intensification during the next 72 hours
which could result in intensities higher than currently forecast at
those time frames. By day 4, the cyclone is forecast to move
over marginal sea surface temperatures and into a drier, more
stable environment while undergoing increasing northwesterly shear.
This should result in a weakening trend beginning around hour 96
of the forecast period. The official NHC intensity forecast was
changed little from the previous forecast, and remains on the
higher end of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 12.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.7N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 12.6N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 12.8N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 13.3N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 14.5N 128.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 15.8N 134.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-07-29 08:41

WTPZ32 KNHC 290839
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1100 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 113.0W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-07-29 08:41

WTPZ22 KNHC 290839 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.6N 118.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.3N 123.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 134.5W

>

2019-07-29 08:40

WTPZ22 KNHC 290839
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.6N 118.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.3N 123.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 134.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-07-29 03:57

WTNT82 EGRR 290356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 63.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.07.2019 0 13.5N 63.5W 1013 21
1200UTC 29.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 132.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.07.2019 0 11.4N 132.7W 1002 36
1200UTC 29.07.2019 12 11.7N 136.1W 995 46
0000UTC 30.07.2019 24 12.2N 139.2W 989 49
1200UTC 30.07.2019 36 13.0N 142.2W 986 51
0000UTC 31.07.2019 48 13.9N 144.6W 986 52
1200UTC 31.07.2019 60 14.5N 146.6W 987 58
0000UTC 01.08.2019 72 15.1N 148.6W 988 57
1200UTC 01.08.2019 84 15.5N 150.9W 994 49
0000UTC 02.08.2019 96 15.9N 153.1W 998 38
1200UTC 02.08.2019 108 16.3N 155.0W 999 42
0000UTC 03.08.2019 120 16.6N 157.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 03.08.2019 132 17.0N 159.1W 1006 31
0000UTC 04.08.2019 144 17.5N 160.8W 1007 27

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 110.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.07.2019 0 12.4N 110.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 29.07.2019 12 12.7N 113.6W 1007 25
0000UTC 30.07.2019 24 13.1N 117.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 30.07.2019 36 12.7N 120.5W 1001 32
0000UTC 31.07.2019 48 12.4N 123.6W 998 34
1200UTC 31.07.2019 60 13.0N 126.0W 995 44
0000UTC 01.08.2019 72 14.4N 129.4W 995 40
1200UTC 01.08.2019 84 15.5N 133.1W 994 42
0000UTC 02.08.2019 96 16.4N 136.7W 995 43
1200UTC 02.08.2019 108 17.2N 139.9W 997 39
0000UTC 03.08.2019 120 18.8N 142.9W 1001 39
1200UTC 03.08.2019 132 20.3N 145.3W 1001 41
0000UTC 04.08.2019 144 22.3N 147.4W 1004 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.5N 122.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2019 108 12.5N 122.0W 1005 34
0000UTC 03.08.2019 120 12.0N 125.5W 1005 35
1200UTC 03.08.2019 132 11.9N 128.0W 1005 31
0000UTC 04.08.2019 144 12.5N 131.3W 1006 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290356

>

2019-07-29 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 290356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 63.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.07.2019 13.5N 63.5W WEAK
12UTC 29.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 132.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.07.2019 11.4N 132.7W WEAK
12UTC 29.07.2019 11.7N 136.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.07.2019 12.2N 139.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.07.2019 13.0N 142.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2019 13.9N 144.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2019 14.5N 146.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2019 15.1N 148.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2019 15.5N 150.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.08.2019 15.9N 153.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 16.3N 155.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 16.6N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 17.0N 159.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 17.5N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 110.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.07.2019 12.4N 110.0W WEAK
12UTC 29.07.2019 12.7N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2019 13.1N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2019 12.7N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2019 12.4N 123.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2019 13.0N 126.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2019 14.4N 129.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2019 15.5N 133.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 16.4N 136.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 17.2N 139.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 18.8N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 20.3N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 22.3N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.5N 122.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.08.2019 12.5N 122.0W WEAK
00UTC 03.08.2019 12.0N 125.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2019 11.9N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2019 12.5N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290356

>

2019-07-29 03:49

WTPN32 PHNC 290400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.6N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.6N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.6N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 12.8N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.8N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.0N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.5N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290400Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 111.3W.
29JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1295 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-29 02:53

WTPZ42 KNHC 290250 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
900 PM MDT SUN JUL 28 2019

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS AGAIN CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD, WITH APPARENT MULTIPLE
VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER, AND THE
CONVECTION IS IN A LOOSELY CURVED BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE, AND BASED ON THE UNCHANGED ORGANIZATION
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME DECREASE IN
THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER 24 H WHEN IT MOVES SOUTH OF A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS, THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR
THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A NEARLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION ONCE AN
INNER CORE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE, IT IS
EXPECTED THAT IT WILL TAKE 12-24 H FOR THE INNER CORE TO FORM.
BASED ON THIS AND THE GUIDANCE, THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24 H, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER
INTENSIFICATION FROM 24-72 H. THE NEW FORECAST IS AGAIN INCREASED

>

2019-07-29 02:52

WTPZ42 KNHC 290250
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that the
depression has again changed little in organization since the last
advisory. The circulation remains broad, with apparent multiple
vorticity centers rotating around the mean center, and the
convection is in a loosely curved band over the northern semicircle.
Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
are in the 30-35 kt range, and based on the unchanged organization
the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The initial motion is 285/18. Deep-layer ridging to the north of
the cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-
northwestward through the forecast period, with some decrease in
the forward speed after 24 h when it moves south of a slight
weakness in the ridge. The track guidance is very tightly clustered
and has changed little from the last advisory. Thus, the new NHC
track forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near
the various consensus models.

The cyclone is expected to be in a nearly ideal environment for
strengthening for at least the next 3 days, and the intensity
guidance suggests a good chance of rapid intensification once an
inner core becomes established. Given the current structure, it is
expected that it will take 12-24 h for the inner core to form.
Based on this and the guidance, the new NHC intensity forecast calls
for steady strengthening for the first 24 h, followed by a faster
intensification from 24-72 h. The new forecast is again increased
above the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the
guidance. It should be noted that once rapid intensification
starts, the system could strengthen faster than currently forecast
and reach category 3 or higher intensity. After 72 h, the forecast
track takes the system over slightly cooler water and into an area
of northwesterly shear, and the intensity forecasts calls for slow
weakening during this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 12.2N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 12.6N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 12.6N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 12.6N 119.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 12.8N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 13.8N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 15.0N 132.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-07-29 02:52

WTPZ32 KNHC 290249
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
900 PM MDT SUN JUL 28 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 111.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH
(33 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS THEN LIKELY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-29 02:51

WTPZ22 KNHC 290248 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0300 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.6N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.6N 119.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W

>

2019-07-29 02:50

WTPZ22 KNHC 290248
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0300 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.6N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.6N 119.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2019-07-28 21:05

WTPN32 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 11.4N 108.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 108.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 11.9N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.1N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.1N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.1N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 12.8N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.0N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.5N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 109.4W.
28JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1369 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-28 20:43

WTPZ42 KNHC 282040 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 28 2019

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LONG
CONVECTIVE BAND. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW A CONSENSUS T2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB, WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT. THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST-RECEIVED
ASCAT-C DATA.

VARIOUS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
LIGHT, BUT THAT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE THE CASE BASED ON HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD MOTIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EVEN WITH THE
DEPRESSION'S FAST FORWARD SPEED, THE CENTER IS CHASING THE
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT. GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT STRUCTURE,
ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ONCE
AN INNER CORE FORMS, FASTER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW SHEAR
AND WARM WATERS, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
JUST AFTER 48 HOURS. IN FACT, SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES
INDICATE THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE'S
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AT LEAST 65 KT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THEREFORE, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE, ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS, AND MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE HWRF AND THE EUROPEAN VERSION OF THE SHIPS MODEL, WHICH LIE
ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE UPPER BOUND OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL FAST--285/17 KT--DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF

>

2019-07-28 20:43

WTPZ42 KNHC 282040
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019

The depression has not changed much in organization since the
previous advisory. The system has a broad circulation, with the
low-level center located near the southeastern edge of a long
convective band. Dvorak classifications are now a consensus T2.0
from TAFB and SAB, which supports maintaining an initial intensity
of 30 kt. This is also in good agreement with just-received
ASCAT-C data.

Various objective analyses suggest that the shear over the system is
light, but that doesn't appear to be the case based on high-level
cloud motions seen on visible satellite imagery. Even with the
depression's fast forward speed, the center is chasing the
convection out ahead of it. Given the cyclone's current structure,
only slow strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 hours
while the depression continues to become better organized. Once
an inner core forms, faster strengthening is likely due to low shear
and warm waters, and the cyclone is forecast to become a hurricane
just after 48 hours. In fact, SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices
indicate that there is about a 40 percent chance that the cyclone's
winds will increase by at least 65 kt during the next 3 days.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised from the
previous one, especially after 48 hours, and most closely follows
the HWRF and the European version of the SHIPS model, which lie
above the intensity consensus and near the upper bound of the
guidance envelope.

The initial motion is still fast--285/17 kt--due to the strength of
the mid-level high to the north. Ridging is expected to keep the
cyclone on a westward or west-northwestward heading for the entire
5-day forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed as it
moves south of a weakness in the ridge. The track models are still
tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is very close to HCCA
and the other multi-model consensus aids, which also ends up being
very close to the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 11.5N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 11.9N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 12.1N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 12.1N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 12.1N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 12.8N 125.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 14.0N 131.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-07-28 20:42

WTPZ32 KNHC 282039
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 28 2019

...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 109.1W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H). A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS THEN LIKELY
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-07-28 20:42

WTPZ22 KNHC 282039
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
2100 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.9N 111.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.1N 117.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.1N 120.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.8N 125.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 14.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-07-28 15:25

WTPN32 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 11.0N 106.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 106.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 11.8N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.1N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.1N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.0N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.5N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.5N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.0N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 107.8W.
28JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1427 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ERICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-28 14:42

WTPZ42 KNHC 281440 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
900 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2019

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS
ALSO INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION, WITH A PRONOUNCED BAND WRAPPING FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB AND T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB, AND ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E IS MOVING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS CENTERED ALONG THE U.S/MEXICO
BORDER, AND ITS INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KT. A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SOME AFTER 24 HOURS, BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS
EXPECTED TO BE EITHER WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE
5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
MODELS, AND THIS INITIAL NHC FORECAST HAS GENERALLY BEEN PLACED
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID (HCCA).

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT
THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, BUT THAT SHEAR SHOULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE OVER DEEP WARM WATER, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED,
AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE IVCN INTENSITY

>

2019-07-28 14:42

WTPZ42 KNHC 281440
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019

First-light visible satellite images have revealed that the area of
low pressure located southwest of the coast of Mexico has developed
a well-defined center of circulation. The convective pattern has
also increased in organization, with a pronounced band wrapping from
the west to north of the center. Dvorak intensity estimates are
T2.0/30 kt from SAB and T1.5/25 kt from TAFB, and advisories are
being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Seven-E is moving quickly along the southern
periphery of mid-level ridging that is centered along the U.S/Mexico
border, and its initial motion estimate is 285/18 kt. A weakness in
the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula should allow the
cyclone to slow down some after 24 hours, but the trajectory is
expected to be either westward or west-northwestward for the entire
5-day forecast period. There is very little spread among the track
models, and this initial NHC forecast has generally been placed
between the various multi-model consensus models and the HFIP
Corrected Consensus aid (HCCA).

The convective pattern and upper-level cloud motions suggest that
there's a little bit of shear over the system from the
east-northeast, but that shear should abate over the next 24 hours.
The cyclone will also be over deep warm water, with sea surface
temperatures remaining above 27 degrees Celsius for the entire
forecast period. As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated,
and the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the IVCN intensity
consensus and close to the HCCA guidance for much of the forecast
period. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and it is likely to become a hurricane in 2 to 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 11.2N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 11.8N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 12.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 12.1N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 12.0N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 12.5N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-07-28 14:42

WTPZ32 KNHC 281440
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
900 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2019

...A SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN AS MANY DAYS FORMS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 107.5W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH
(33 KM/H). A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS THEN LIKELY TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-07-28 14:41

WTPZ22 KNHC 281439
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
1500 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 107.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 107.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 11.8N 110.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.1N 113.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.1N 116.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 107.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>