Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for VAYU-19
in India, Pakistan

Global Telecommunication Service

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2019-06-17 02:39

WTIO51 PGTW 170300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190617005350
2019061700 02A VAYU 027 01 035 12 SATL 030
T000 218N 0668E 035 R034 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 229N 0679E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.9N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON

>

2019-06-17 02:39

WTIO31 PGTW 170300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.9N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 100NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
162331Z 37GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL

>

2019-06-17 02:30

WTIO51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190617005350
2019061700 02A VAYU 027 01 035 12 SATL 030
T000 218N 0668E 035 R034 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 229N 0679E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.9N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 18 FEET.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061600 209N 654E 55
0219061600 209N 654E 55
0219061606 207N 651E 50
0219061606 207N 651E 50
0219061612 205N 653E 40
0219061618 208N 661E 35
0219061700 218N 668E 35
NNNN

>

2019-06-17 02:29

WTIO31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.9N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 100NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
162331Z 37GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, A 161655Z METOP-A
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOTS, AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 02A IS STILL EXPERIENCING
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TC 02A IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE TC 02A TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. TC 02A
WILL WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 18
FEET.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-16 20:19

WTIO51 PGTW 162100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190616193657
2019061618 02A VAYU 026 01 070 08 SATL 020
T000 208N 0661E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 214N 0672E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 221N 0684E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.4N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-16 20:19

WTIO31 PGTW 162100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.4N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.1N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 66.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH-

>

2019-06-16 20:14

WTIO51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190616193657
2019061618 02A VAYU 026 01 070 08 SATL 020
T000 208N 0661E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 214N 0672E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 221N 0684E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.4N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.1N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 66.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061600 209N 654E 55
0219061600 209N 654E 55
0219061606 207N 651E 50
0219061606 207N 651E 50
0219061612 205N 653E 40
0219061618 208N 661E 35
NNNN

>

2019-06-16 20:12

WTIO31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.4N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.1N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 66.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
161655Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. TC 02A IS
EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS). TC 02A
IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
CAUSE TC 02A TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. TC 02A WILL DISSIPATE AND WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS BY TAU
24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH
AFUM INDICATING A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND NVGM INDICATING
AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z
AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-16 14:12

WTIO51 PGTW 161500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190616130827
2019061612 02A VAYU 025 01 135 03 SATL 030
T000 205N 0653E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 135 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 213N 0662E 035 R034 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 222N 0675E 035 R034 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 230N 0691E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.3N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-16 14:12

WTIO31 PGTW 161500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.3N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.2N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-16 14:04

WTIO51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190616130827
2019061612 02A VAYU 025 01 135 03 SATL 030
T000 205N 0653E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 135 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 213N 0662E 035 R034 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 222N 0675E 035 R034 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 230N 0691E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.3N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.2N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.0N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 65.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061600 209N 654E 55
0219061600 209N 654E 55
0219061606 207N 651E 50
0219061606 207N 651E 50
0219061612 205N 653E 40
NNNN

>

2019-06-16 14:00

WTIO31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.3N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.2N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.0N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 65.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG (30-40 KNOTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 161221Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
2.7 (APPROXIMATELY 40 KNOTS) AND IS HEDGED BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 3.0/3.5 BASED ON THE WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 02A
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. TC 02A SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE RVCN WIND RADII CONSENSUS,
INCORPORATING THE EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-16 12:31

WTIN01 DEMS 161231
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 16 JUNE 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

PART-II

CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER NORTHEAST AND
ADJOINING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 03 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED AT
0900 UTC OF 16TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 DEG N AND LONGITUDE
65.1 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 490 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830)
(GUJARAT), 450 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (42731) (GUJARAT) AND 550
KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BHUJ (42634) (GUJARAT). THE SYSTEM IS VERY
LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS
AND INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND
THEN RECURVE GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH GUJARAT COAST AROUND
1800 UTC OF 17TH JUNE 2019 AS A DEPRESSION.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 HPA.

F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/16 AT 21 UTC 22.0 N / 66.3 E MAX WIND 55 KTS CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/17 AT 09 UTC 23.2 N / 68.7 E MAX WIND SPEED 35 KTS DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/30 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 62 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 62 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/30 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 62 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2))REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.0-5.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 90 DEG E:
SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:S/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-16 09:29

WTIN01 DEMS 160900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 16 JUNE 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

PART-II

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 04 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF 16 TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 65.1 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 480 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (GUJARAT), 440 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (GUJARAT) AND 550 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BHUJ (GUJARAT). THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH GUJARAT COAST BY MIDNIGHT OF 17 TH JUNE 2019 AS A DEPRESSION (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 HPA (.)

F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/16 AT 18 UTC 21.6 N / 65.7 E MAX WIND 55 KTS CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/17 AT 06 UTC 22.4 N / 67.2 E MAX WIND SPEED 40 KTS DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/30 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/30 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 62 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2))REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.0-5.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/25 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.2 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.2 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-16 09:12

WTIN31 DEMS 160912
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM VAYU OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 16TH JUNE 2019
FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 160600 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 20.9 0N/65.10E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 300/04 KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 050 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

161200Z 21.2?N /65.3?E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z 21.6?N /65.70 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

170000Z 22.0?N /66.30 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

170600Z 22.4?N /67.2?E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



36 HRS, VALID AT:

171800Z 23.2?N /68.70 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT



48 HRS, VALID AT:

180600Z 23.8?N /69.80 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 15 KT, GUSTS 25 KT
=


>

2019-06-16 08:35

WTIO51 PGTW 160900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190616075514
2019061606 02A VAYU 024 01 150 04 SATL 060
T000 206N 0656E 055 R050 045 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 212N 0664E 045 R034 030 NE QD 120 SE QD 160 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 219N 0675E 035 R034 025 NE QD 100 SE QD 150 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 229N 0691E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.2N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

>

2019-06-16 08:35

WTIO31 PGTW 160900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.2N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.9N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-06-16 08:28

WTIO51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190616075514
2019061606 02A VAYU 024 01 150 04 SATL 060
T000 206N 0656E 055 R050 045 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 212N 0664E 045 R034 030 NE QD 120 SE QD 160 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 219N 0675E 035 R034 025 NE QD 100 SE QD 150 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 229N 0691E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.2N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.9N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.9N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061600 209N 654E 55
0219061600 209N 654E 55
0219061606 206N 656E 55
0219061606 206N 656E 55
NNNN

>

2019-06-16 08:26

WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.2N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.9N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.9N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG (25-35 KNOTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MSI ALSO SHOWS VIGOROUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA WITH LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES EVIDENT OVER NORTHWEST INDIA INDICATIVE OF THE
HOSTILE, UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. A 160517Z MHS 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CENTER TILTED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED
ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS). TC 02A
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. TC 02A SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE RVCN WIND RADII CONSENSUS,
INCORPORATING THE EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-16 07:33

WTIN01 DEMS 160730
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0700 UTC 16 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER NORTHEAST
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY WESTWARDS WITH
A SPEED OF ABOUT 6 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC
OF 16 TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 65.2 DEG
E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA,
ABOUT 470 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (GUJARAT) (42830), 440 KM
SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (GUJARAT) (42731) AND 545 KM SOUTHWEST OF BHUJ
(GUJARAT) (42634). THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 06 HOURS; GRADUALLY
RECURVE THEREAFTER NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH GUJARAT COAST
AROUND 1800 UTC OF 17 TH JUNE 2019 AS A DEPRESSION (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 70 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA (.)

F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/16 AT 15 UTC 21.4 N / 65.3 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/17 AT 03 UTC 22.1 N/ 66.2 E MAX WIND
SPEED 50 KTS CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 4 DEG N TO E OF 65 TO 75 DEG E:
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2))REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : 4.5-8.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 6 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.2 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-16 04:24

WTIN31 DEMS 160420
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM VAYU OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 16TH JUNE 2019 FOR
WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 160000 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 20.7 0N/65.50E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 270/04 KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

16060Z 21.0ON /65.1OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT







12 HRS, VALID AT:

161200Z 21.3ON /65.00 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z 21.6ON /65.40 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

170000Z 21.9ON /66.1OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:

171200Z 22.8ON /68.10 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

48 HRS, VALID AT:

171800Z 23.7ON /69.80 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT=

>

2019-06-16 02:39

WTIO51 PGTW 160300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190616013605
2019061600 02A VAYU 023 01 305 07 SATL 060
T000 211N 0653E 055 R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 115 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 214N 0654E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 220N 0661E 040 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 170 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 228N 0671E 035
T048 238N 0688E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:

>

2019-06-16 02:39

WTIO31 PGTW 160300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4N 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-16 02:24

WTIO51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190616013605
2019061600 02A VAYU 023 01 305 07 SATL 060
T000 211N 0653E 055 R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 214N 0654E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 220N 0661E 040 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 170 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 228N 0671E 035
T048 238N 0688E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4N 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.0N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.8N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.8N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061600 211N 653E 55
0219061600 211N 653E 55
NNNN

>

2019-06-16 02:24

WTIO31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4N 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.0N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.8N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.8N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE ACCORDING TO A 152236Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW/ADT AND
T3.0 FROM KNES. SATCON ESTIMATE OF 78 KNOTS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH,
GIVEN THE DISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (30 TO 31 DEGREES C), TC 02A CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST (30 TO 35 KNOTS)
IMPARTED BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. TC 02A HAS BEGUN A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST, AND AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
SHALLOW, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES, AND THE LLCC SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AS THE LLCC BECOMES DECOUPLED WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION, CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT OVERCOMES THE CIRCULATION. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND 48, WITH DISSIPATION COMMENCING OVER WATER PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-15 21:10

WTIO51 PGTW 152100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190615203638
2019061518 02A VAYU 022 01 270 05 SATL 060
T000 207N 0659E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
105 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 206N 0655E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 110 SE QD 180 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 213N 0661E 040 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 170 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 219N 0669E 035 R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 227N 0680E 030
T072 242N 0704E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-15 21:10

WTIO31 PGTW 152100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 65.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.6N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-15 21:03

WTIO51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190615203638
2019061518 02A VAYU 022 01 270 05 SATL 060
T000 207N 0659E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 206N 0655E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 180 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 213N 0661E 040 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 170 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 219N 0669E 035 R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 227N 0680E 030
T072 242N 0704E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 65.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.6N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.3N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.9N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.7N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.2N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061506 206N 671E 75
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061518 207N 659E 60
0219061518 207N 659E 60
NNNN

>

2019-06-15 21:03

WTIO31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 65.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.6N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.3N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.9N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.7N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.2N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE DISORGANIZED AROUND
AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ACCORDING TO A 151649Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM
PGTW AND KNES, WHICH AGREE WITH AN ADT OF T3.8. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST (30 TO 35
KNOTS) IMPARTED BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING. AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES SHALLOWER, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE
SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLIES, AND THE LLCC SHOULD MAKE AN ABRUPT TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS. AS THE LLCC BECOMES
DECOUPLED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION, CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVERCOMES THE CIRCULATION. LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED JUST BEYOND TAU 48, WITH DISSIPATION COMMENCING OVER WATER
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-15 18:09

WTIN01 DEMS 151800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 15 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE-FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS
VAA'YU) OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 04 KTS IN LAST SIX
HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15 TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 66.4 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 355 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
PORBANDAR (42830) (GUJARAT), 330 KM SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (42731)
(GUJARAT) AND 450 KM SOUTHWEST OF BHUJ (42634). THE SYSTEM IS VERY
LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT
12 HOURS AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 12
HOURS; GRADUALLY RECURVE THEREAFTER NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH
GUJARAT COAST BY 1200 UTC OF 17 TH JUNE 2019 AS A DEPRESSION (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA (.)

F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/16 AT 00 UTC 20.9 N / 65.8 E MAX WIND 75 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/16 AT 12 UTC 21.6 N/ 66.4 E MAX WIND SPEED 60
KTS SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 4 DEG N TO E OF 65 TO 75 DEG E:
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 60/65 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2))REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : 4.5-8.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 6 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.2 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-15 13:52

WTIO51 PGTW 151500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190615130940
2019061512 02A VAYU 021 01 280 08 SATL 030
T000 207N 0664E 070 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD
150 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 210N 0659E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD
190 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 215N 0663E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 110 SE QD 170 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 221N 0671E 045 R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 228N 0681E 035 R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 242N 0710E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-15 13:52

WTIO31 PGTW 151500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.0N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-15 13:49

WTIO51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190615130940
2019061512 02A VAYU 021 01 280 08 SATL 030
T000 207N 0664E 070 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 150 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 210N 0659E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 190 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 215N 0663E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 170 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 221N 0671E 045 R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 228N 0681E 035 R034 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 242N 0710E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.0N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.5N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.1N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.8N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.2N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 66.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061506 206N 672E 75
0219061506 206N 672E 75
0219061506 206N 672E 75
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
0219061512 207N 664E 70
NNNN

>

2019-06-15 13:49

WTIO31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.0N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.5N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.1N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.8N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.2N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 66.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151106Z GMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE WIND RADII
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 150539Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND INDICATED IN IMAGERY,
A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 4.0/4.5 (65/77 KNOTS) AND RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATES OF 66-72 KNOTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70
KNOTS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 12, TC VAYU IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTER TAU 24, TC 02A SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NEAR TAU 54, THE SYSTEM
WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. FORECAST WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON THE RVCN WIND RADII CONSENSUS, INCORPORATING THE
EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-15 12:27

WTIN01 DEMS 151225
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 15 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 04 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15 TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.7
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 66.7 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 325 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
PORBANDAR (42830) (GUJARAT), 380 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) AND 435 KM NEARLY WEST OF DIU (42914).
THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS
THEREAFTER AND CROSS NORTH GUJARAT COAST AS A DEPRESSION
BY 1200 UTC OF 17 TH JUNE 2019.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA (.)
F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/15 AT 21 UTC 20.8 N / 65.9 E MAX WIND 70 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/16 AT 09 UTC 21.4 N/ 66.0 E MAX WIND
SPEED 60 KTS SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E: S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
SW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)
2) S OF 8 DEG N TO E OF 65 TO 75 DEG E: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 75 DEG E:SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
E/NE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE W OF 78 DEG E (.)
4)REST AREA: W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2))REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N:SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE E OF 62 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 65 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 65 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 93 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 93 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-15 10:51

WTIN01 DEMS 151050

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 15 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 04 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15 TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 66.9 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 305 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830)
(GUJARAT), 360 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT)
AND 415 KM NEARLY WEST OF DIU (42914). THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY
TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS DURING NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER AND REACH COASTAL
SAURASHTRA AND KUTCH AS A DEPRESSION BY 1200 UTC OF 17 TH
JUNE 2019.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA (.)

F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/15 AT 18 UTC 20.7 N / 66.0 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/16 AT 06 UTC 21.2 N/ 65.9 E MAX WIND
SPEED 65 KTS SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E: S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
SW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)
2) S OF 8 DEG N TO E OF 65 TO 75 DEG E: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 75 DEG E:SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE W OF 78 DEG E (.)
4)REST AREA: W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2))REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N:SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE E OF 62 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 65 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 65 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 93 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 93 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-15 09:34

WTIN31 DEMS 150930
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM VAYU OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 15TH JUNE 2019
FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 150600 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 20.7 0N/66.90E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 270/04 KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

151200Z 20.7ON /66.40 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

151800Z 20.7ON /66.0OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

160000Z 20.9ON /65.70 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

160600Z 21.2ON /65.90 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



36 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z 21.8ON /66.6OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

48 HRS, VALID AT:

170600Z 22.5ON /67.60 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

60 HRS, VALID AT:

171800Z 23.5ON /69.00 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT=

>

2019-06-15 09:07

WTIN01 DEMS 150900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 15 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY
WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 03 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC TODAY, THE 15TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 67.2 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 275 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF PORBANDAR (42830) (GUJARAT), 330 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) AND 385 KM NEARLY WEST OF DIU (42914).
THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS DURING NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS
THEREAFTER AND REACH COASTAL SAURASHTRA AND KUTCH AS A DEPRESSION
BY 1200 UTC OF 17TH JUNE 2019.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E: S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
SW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)
2) S OF 8 DEG N TO E OF 65 TO 75 DEG E: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 75 DEG E: SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 05/10
KTS
TO THE W OF 78 DEG E (.)
4)REST AREA: W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2))REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 20 DEG N :SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE E OF 62 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 65 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 65 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE
N OF 7 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 93 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 93 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-15 08:56

WTIO51 PGTW 150900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190615071203
2019061506 02A VAYU 020 01 270 04 SATL 040
T000 206N 0672E 075 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD
140 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 208N 0665E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD
170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 211N 0665E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 130 SE QD 180 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 217N 0671E 045 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 224N 0680E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 240N 0703E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 67.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-15 08:56

WTIO31 PGTW 150900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 67.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 67.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.8N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-15 08:15

WTIO51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190615071203
2019061506 02A VAYU 020 01 270 04 SATL 040
T000 206N 0672E 075 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 208N 0665E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 211N 0665E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 180 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 217N 0671E 045 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 224N 0680E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 240N 0703E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 67.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 67.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.8N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.1N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.7N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.4N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.0N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061506 206N 672E 75
0219061506 206N 672E 75
0219061506 206N 672E 75
NNNN

>

2019-06-15 08:12

WTIO31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 67.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 67.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.8N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.1N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.7N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.4N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.0N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150202Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED
LLCC WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER, A 150538Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). BASED ON THE RECENT
WEAKENING TREND INDICATED IN IMAGERY, A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
4.0/4.5 (65/77 KNOTS) AND RECENT SATCON ESTIMATES OF 66-74 KNOTS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER
TAU 12, TC VAYU IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTER TAU 24, TC
02A SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. NEAR TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE RVCN WIND
RADII CONSENSUS, INCORPORATING THE EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-15 03:06

WTIO51 PGTW 150300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190615021255
2019061500 02A VAYU 019 01 255 04 SATL 040
T000 206N 0676E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 207N 0667E 075 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD
125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 209N 0662E 065 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD
110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 214N 0666E 055 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 221N 0674E 040 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 236N 0695E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 67.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-15 03:06

WTIO31 PGTW 150300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 67.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 67.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.7N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-15 02:50

WTIO31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 67.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 67.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.7N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.9N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.1N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.6N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
INDICATES THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE DECREASED IN SIZE AND BECAME
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A WELL
DEFINED CENTER IN THE 142357Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS. THE INTENSITY WAS
RAISED TO 80 KNOTS AS DEEP CORE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED, WITH AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES NOW RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS AND AUTOMATED
ESTIMATES BETWEEN 66 TO 82 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH AT APPROXIMATELY 20
KNOTS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC IN RESPONSE TO
THE VWS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE OVERALL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE IS STILL WELL DEFINED, AND THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL REMAINS ROBUST. VAYU IS SLOWLY TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
WITHIN THE POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF A COL BETWEEN TWO
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SHARPLY AS THE 200 MB NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ENHANCES, RESULTING
IN A DE-COUPLING OF THE VORTEX FROM THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. AFTER TAU
24, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TRACKING WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS VWS AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE. TC 02A WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
INDIA. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NWP GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES
IN WHEN VAYU BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS SHARP
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AFTER THE TURN. AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH WAS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK AND THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z,
152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-06-15 02:38

WTIO51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190615021255
2019061500 02A VAYU 019 01 255 04 SATL 040
T000 206N 0676E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 207N 0667E 075 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 209N 0662E 065 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 214N 0666E 055 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 221N 0674E 040 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 236N 0695E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 67.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 67.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.7N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.9N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.1N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.6N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
0219061500 206N 676E 80
NNNN

>

2019-06-14 20:52

WTIO51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190614200656
2019061418 02A VAYU 018 01 250 03 SATL 030
T000 207N 0680E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 207N 0674E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 209N 0669E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 212N 0667E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 217N 0672E 040 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 233N 0692E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.7N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.9N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.2N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.7N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.3N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 67.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
0219061418 207N 680E 75
NNNN

>

2019-06-14 20:50

WTIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.7N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.9N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.2N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.7N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.3N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 67.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(IR) INDICATES THAT CORE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED OUT TO APPROXIMATELY
30 NM RADIUS, LEAVING A LARGE, RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
EYE FEATURE, BASED ON A 141709Z METOP-B PASS WHICH BETTER REVEALS THE
EXTENT OF THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 75 KNOTS, AS THE DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBER
INCREASED TO T4.5 DUE TO THE RETURN OF THE IR EYE FEATURE. THE ADT
AND CIRA MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 68 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES WERE USED TO SUPPORT THE
POSITION AND WIND RADII ANALYSIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE LOW
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY OUT OF PHASE. HOWEVER,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE OVERALL MOISTURE ENVELOPE
IS STILL WELL DEFINED AND THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS ROBUST. TC
VAYU IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD WITHIN THE POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT
OF A COL BETWEEN TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, VWS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY AS THE 200 MB FLOW ENHANCES,
RESULTING IN A DE-COUPLING OF THE VORTEX FROM THE MEAN STEERING FLOW.
AFTER TAU 24, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TRACKING WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS VWS AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. TC 02A WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF INDIA. THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NWP GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN WHEN VAYU
BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS SHARP DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEEDS AFTER THE TURN. AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH WAS PLACED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK
AND THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND
152100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-06-14 18:01

WTIN01 DEMS 141800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 14 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU)
OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA CONTINUED
TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 03 KNOTS IN
LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 14 TH
JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 68.0 DEG E
OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT
190 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830)(GUJARAT), 240 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) AND 300 KM WEST OF
DIU(42914). THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS
DURING NEXT 48 HOURS AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NEARLY WESTWARDS. HOWEVER, PORBANDAR AND
DEVBHOOMI DWARKA DISTRICTS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SQUALLY WINDS
SPEED REACHING 27-32 KNOTS GUSTING TO 38 KNOTS AND GIR SOMNATH AND
JUNAGARH DISTRICTS WITH STRONG WINDS SPEED REACHING 16-22 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND DECREASE SUBSEQUENTLY.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO
75 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA.


ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 55/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2))REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 45-50 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 94 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 94 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 83 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 83 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-14 14:25

WTIO51 PGTW 141500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190614135957
2019061412 02A VAYU 017 01 225 01 SATL 030
T000 208N 0683E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 207N 0678E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 208N 0673E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 210N 0669E 060 R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 214N 0671E 050 R050 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 105 SE QD 115 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 227N 0684E 040 R034 040 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 241N 0709E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-14 14:25

WTIO31 PGTW 141500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.7N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-14 14:21

WTIO51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190614135957
2019061412 02A VAYU 017 01 225 01 SATL 030
T000 208N 0683E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 207N 0678E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 208N 0673E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 210N 0669E 060 R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 214N 0671E 050 R050 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 105 SE QD 115 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 227N 0684E 040 R034 040 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 241N 0709E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.7N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.8N 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.0N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.7N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.1N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 68.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061406 209N 684E 85
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
0219061412 208N 683E 75
NNNN

>

2019-06-14 14:21

WTIO31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.7N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.8N 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.0N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.7N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.1N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 68.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DIMINISHING AREA OF CONVECTION LARGELY DISPLACED
TO ONE SIDE OF THE INCREASINGLY ELONGATED, RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT OCCASIONALLY WRAPS AROUND AND
ENCLOSES THE CENTER. A 141124Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE
EYE, UPON WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KTS, BASED ON
LOWERING FINAL T DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW OF T5.0 (90
KTS) AND T4.0 (65 KTS). A 141145Z AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 80 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS EXPERIENCING DECLINING CONDITIONS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VALUES, RESULTING
IN UNRAVELING ORGANIZATION. GOOD BUT WEAKENING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SUSTAINING THE
REMAINING CONVECTION. TC 02A HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY BUT CONTINUES
TO DRIFT WESTWARD IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OVER INDIA AND A STR BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. THE INTENSITY MAY MAINTAIN
IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12.
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WIDEN THE BREAK BETWEEN THE
TWO STRS. THAT, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES, WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 36. AFTER THE
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER BEFORE TAU
96. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. MOST
MODELS SHOW THE RECURVE OCCURRING AROUND TAU 36, BUT GALWEM AND
UKMET BRING THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD BEFORE BEGINNING THE RECURVE,
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHEREAS ECMWF AND GFS START THE
RECURVE FURTHER TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HEDGED EAST OF CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS, AND IS
SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO THE SLOWER RECENTLY OBSERVED TRACK
SPEED. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SHARP TURN IN
THE FORECAST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-14 08:59

WTIO51 PGTW 140900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190614082217
2019061406 02A VAYU 016 01 255 04 SATL 010
T000 208N 0681E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 207N 0675E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 207N 0670E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 208N 0666E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 210N 0663E 065 R064 005 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
015 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD
150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 222N 0677E 045 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 085 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 235N 0695E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

>

2019-06-14 08:59

WTIO31 PGTW 140900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 68.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.7N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-14 08:43

WTIO51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190614082217
2019061406 02A VAYU 016 01 255 04 SATL 010
T000 208N 0681E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 207N 0675E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 207N 0670E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 208N 0666E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 210N 0663E 065 R064 005 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 222N 0677E 045 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 085 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 235N 0695E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 68.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.7N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.7N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.8N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.0N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.2N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 23.5N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061406 208N 681E 85
0219061406 208N 681E 85
0219061406 208N 681E 85
NNNN

>

2019-06-14 08:42

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 68.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.7N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.7N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.8N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.0N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.2N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 23.5N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION WITH WELL-ORGANIZED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
INTERMITTENT CENTRAL DIMPLE OR CLOUD-FILLED RAGGED EYE. A 140444Z
AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS NOT COMPLETELY
CLOSED AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DIMPLE
FEATURE AND MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85
KT, BASED ON LOWERING FINAL T DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW OF
T5.0 (90 KTS) AND T4.5 (77 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MARGINAL CONDITIONS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IS BEING OFFSET BY LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
BUT WEAKENING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA AND A STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ERODES THE
SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WIDEN THE BREAK
BETWEEN THE TWO STRS. THAT, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
THAT WILL STEER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM TO
MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN. AFTER THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER BEFORE TAU 96. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM
WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW THE RECURVE
OCCURRING AROUND TAU 48, BUT GALWEM AND UKMET BRING THE SYSTEM MORE
WESTWARD BEFORE BEGINNING THE RECURVE AND ARE WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, WHEREAS ECMWF AND GFS START THE RECURVE FURTHER TO
THE EAST AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HEDGED EAST OF CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. DUE
TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SHARP TURN IN THE FORECAST,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-14 06:23

WTIN01 DEMS 140620
MODIFIED

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0300 UTC 14 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE\U2013FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 03 KTS IN LAST SIX
HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 14TH JUNE, 2019
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 68.5 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 130 KM SOUTHWEST OF
PORBANDAR (GUJARAT), 185 KM WEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 250 KM
WEST OF DIU.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA
COAST AFFECTING PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA WITH WIND SPEED
32-38 KTS GUSTING TO 43 KTS AND GIR SOMNATH AND JUNAGARH WITH
WIND SPEED 22-27 KMPH GUSTING TO 32 KTS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE DISTRICTS DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND WIND
SPEED OVER THESE DISTRICTS IS VERY LIKELY TO DECREASE GRADUALLY
THEREAFTER.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 90 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 HPA.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 60/75 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 59-62 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-14 06:00

WTIN01 DEMS 140558
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0300 UTC 14 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE-FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAA'YU) OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 03 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 14TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 68.5 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 130 KM SOUTHWEST OF
PORBANDAR (GUJARAT), 185 KM WEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 250 KM
WEST OF DIU.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA
COAST AFFECTING PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA WITH WIND SPEED
32-38 KTS GUSTING TO 43 KTS AND GIR SOMNATH AND JUNAGARH WITH WIND
SPEED 22-27 KMPH GUSTING TO 32 KTS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THESE DISTRICTS DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND WIND SPEED OVER
THESE DISTRICTS IS VERY LIKELY TO DECREASE GRADUALLY THEREAFTER.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO
90 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 HPA.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 60/75 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 59-62 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-14 03:34

WTIO51 PGTW 140300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190614023215
2019061400 02A VAYU 015 01 290 03 SATL 045
T000 209N 0685E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD
100 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 210N 0679E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD
115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 209N 0673E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 209N 0668E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 211N 0662E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 218N 0670E 045 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 140 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 227N 0683E 035 R034 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 237N 0701E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

2019-06-14 03:34

WTIO31 PGTW 140300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.0N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-14 03:03

WTIO51 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190614023215
2019061400 02A VAYU 015 01 290 03 SATL 045
T000 209N 0685E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 210N 0679E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 209N 0673E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 209N 0668E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 211N 0662E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 218N 0670E 045 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 140 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 227N 0683E 035 R034 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 237N 0701E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.0N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.9N 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.9N 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.1N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.8N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.7N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.7N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
0219061400 209N 685E 90
NNNN

>

2019-06-14 03:03

WTIO31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.0N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.9N 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.9N 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.1N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.8N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.7N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.7N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION AND THE EARLIER EYE HAS REDUCED TO A DIMPLE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DIMPLE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ON THE LOWER END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90-102 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
MARGINAL CONDITIONS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY LOW (10-
15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND A STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INTENSITY
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ERODES THE SYSTEM. AS TC VAYU WEAKENS, LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN. AFTER THE TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. ONCE
OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED TO THE NORTH OF, AND WITH A TIGHTER
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE CONSENSUS. THE TRACK IS HEDGED IN
ORDER TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM WHICH, HAD CONSISTENTLY
DEPICTED A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SHARP TURN IN THE FORECAST,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-13 21:55

WTIO51 PGTW 132100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190613195152
2019061318 02A VAYU 014 01 290 03 SATL 010
T000 208N 0688E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD
110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 208N 0682E 095 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD
115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 208N 0676E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 208N 0670E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 209N 0665E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 215N 0666E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 090 SE QD 140 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 224N 0680E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 232N 0692E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

>

2019-06-13 21:55

WTIO31 PGTW 132100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.8N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-13 20:57

WTIO51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190613195152
2019061318 02A VAYU 014 01 290 03 SATL 010
T000 208N 0688E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 208N 0682E 095 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 208N 0676E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 208N 0670E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 209N 0665E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 215N 0666E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 140 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 224N 0680E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 232N 0692E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.8N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.8N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.8N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.9N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.5N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.4N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 68.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061300 201N 695E 85
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061306 204N 694E 90
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061312 207N 691E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
0219061318 208N 688E 95
NNNN

>

2019-06-13 20:57

WTIO31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.8N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.8N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.8N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.9N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.5N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.4N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 68.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS BASED ON A 10 NM RAGGED EYE IN
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 95 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES RANGING FROM
T5.0 TO T5.5 (90-102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL DESPITE LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN FROM THE WEST. FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 02A WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND A STR TO
THE NORTH. THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 95 KTS UNTIL HIGH VWS
BY TAU 36 CAUSES A WEAKENING TREND. AS TC 02A WEAKENS, LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A
SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TC 02A IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN
AND DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HEDGED JUST ABOVE THE CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE HWRF AND COAMPS-GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM. NAVGEM, WHICH
HAD CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED A WESTWARD TRACK, HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT AND
NOW DEPICTS A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE TRACK. DESPITE THAT TURN, NAVGEM
REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MEMBERS. DUE TO THE
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SHARP TURN IN THE FORECAST, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z,
140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-13 18:02

WTIN01 DEMS 131800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 13 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE\U2013FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED
AS VAAYU) OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 05 KTS
IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 12 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 13TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 DEG N AND LONGITUDE
69.0 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA, ABOUT 200 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU, 130 KM WEST OF
VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 100 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR
(GUJARAT).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COAST
AFFECTING GIR SOMNATH, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI
DWARKA WITH WIND SPEED 38-43 KTS GUSTING TO 49 KTS DURING
NEXT 12 HOURS .

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 978 HPA (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 60/75 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 59-62 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

2019-06-13 15:14

WTIO51 PGTW 131500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190613142542
2019061312 02A VAYU 013 01 330 04 SATL 010
T000 208N 0690E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 145 SE QD
125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 211N 0683E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 212N 0677E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 212N 0671E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 213N 0666E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 217N 0655E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD
160 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 222N 0655E 045 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 229N 0663E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

>

2019-06-13 15:14

WTIO31 PGTW 131500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 69.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.1N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-13 15:11

WTIN01 DEMS 131510
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 13 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER
NORTHEAST ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 04 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.7
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 69.1 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 190 KM WEST OF DIU, 130 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 120 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF
PORBANDAR (GUJARAT).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COAST AFFECTING GIR
SOMNATH, DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA WITH WIND
SPEED 49-54 KTS GUSTING TO 59 KTS DURING NEXT 12 HOURS .

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 90 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 HPA (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/35 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 60/75 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 59-62 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-13 14:58

WTIO51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190613142542
2019061312 02A VAYU 013 01 330 04 SATL 010
T000 208N 0690E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 211N 0683E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 212N 0677E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 212N 0671E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 213N 0666E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 217N 0655E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 160 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 222N 0655E 045 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 229N 0663E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 69.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.1N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.2N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.3N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.7N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.2N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.9N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 68.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 202N 693E 85
0219061300 202N 693E 85
0219061300 202N 693E 85
0219061306 205N 692E 90
0219061306 205N 692E 90
0219061306 205N 692E 90
0219061312 208N 690E 95
0219061312 208N 690E 95
0219061312 208N 690E 95
NNNN

>

2019-06-13 14:57

WTIO31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 69.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.1N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.2N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.3N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.7N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.2N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.9N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 68.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF, ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND THE MOATS BETWEEN SPIRAL
RAINBANDS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE. A 131137Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS BELOW MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS), DUE TO THE
DETERIORATING STRUCTURE, ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS PERSISTED. A 131200Z
OBSERVATION FROM THE SHORE OF INDIA, 81NM AWAY, REPORTED 30 KTS AND
993 MB. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FUELING THE RECENT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS DRY AIR IS
WRAPPING IN AND WILL LIMIT FUTURE INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
OVER INDIA. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM
AS ANOTHER STR OVER SAUDI ARABIA BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST. AROUND
TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MOST MODELS, SUCH AS GFS, GALWEM, AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SO THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO STEERING BY
LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN A NORTHEASTWARD TURN,
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THIS SHARP TURN AND HOW
QUICKLY THEY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE LATER TERM MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOWING A SHARPER TURN THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE EXCEPTION IS NAVGEM, WHICH MAINTAINS A
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED BY THE STR BUILDING IN TO ITS NORTH,
RESULTING IN A DUE WESTWARD TRACK. IN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. COAMPS-
NAVGEM AND HWRF PREDICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR-TERM, BUT BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS 95 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 THEN BEGINS THE WEAKENING TREND.
BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z,
140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-06-13 11:48

WTIN01 DEMS 130900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 13 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE-FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAA'YU) OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 03 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE
20.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 69.3 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 170 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIU
(42914), 120 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) AND
130 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PORBANDAR (42830)(GUJARAT).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COAST AFFECTING GIR
SOMNATH, DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA DISTRICTS
OF GUJARAT STATE WITH WIND SPEED 49-54 KTS GUSTING TO 59 KTS DURING
NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO
90 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 HPA (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-13 08:52

WTIO51 PGTW 130900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190613082347
2019061306 02A VAYU 012 01 345 03 SATL 010
T000 205N 0692E 090 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 209N 0687E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 211N 0678E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 210N 0670E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 211N 0662E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 214N 0652E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD
130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 218N 0650E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T120 228N 0659E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

>

2019-06-13 08:52

WTIO31 PGTW 130900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-13 08:46

WTIO51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190613082347
2019061306 02A VAYU 012 01 345 03 SATL 010
T000 205N 0692E 090 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 209N 0687E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 211N 0678E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 210N 0670E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 211N 0662E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 214N 0652E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 218N 0650E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T120 228N 0659E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.1N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.0N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.1N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.4N 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.8N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.8N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 202N 693E 85
0219061300 202N 693E 85
0219061300 202N 693E 85
0219061306 205N 692E 90
0219061306 205N 692E 90
0219061306 205N 692E 90
NNNN

>

2019-06-13 08:46

WTIO31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.1N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.0N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.1N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.4N 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.8N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.8N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EMERGING RAGGED EYE AND WELL ORGANIZED
SPIRAL BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS IN LINE WITH
THE KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND
BELOW THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS). A 130300Z OBSERVATION
FROM THE SHORE OF INDIA, 76NM AWAY, REPORTED 19 KTS AND 994 MB. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FUELING THE RECENT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS DRY AIR IS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE WEST AND WILL LIMIT FUTURE INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER INDIA.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
ANOTHER STR OVER SAUDI ARABIA BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. AROUND TAU 36,
INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MOST MODELS, SUCH AS ECMWF, GFS, AND UKMET,
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SO THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO STEERING BY LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN A NORTHEASTWARD TURN, ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THIS SHARP TURN AND HOW QUICKLY THEY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE EXCEPTION IS NAVGEM, WHICH MAINTAINS A
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED BY THE STR BUILDING IN TO ITS NORTH,
RESULTING IN A DUE WESTWARD TRACK. IN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. COAMPS-
GFS AND HWRF PREDICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-
TERM, BUT BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS 90 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 THEN BEGINS THE WEAKENING TREND.
BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z,
140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-13 07:36

WTIN01 DEMS 130734
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0700 UTC 13 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANEFORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 04 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13 TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 20.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 69.4 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 160 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
DIU, 110 KM SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 140 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF
PORBANDAR (GUJARAT).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COAST AFFECTING GIR SOMNATH,
DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA WITH WIND SPEED 75-85
KTS GUSTING TO 85 KTS FROM AFTERNOON OF 13 TH JUNE 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 HPA (.)

F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/13 AT 15 UTC 21.3 N / 69.2 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/14 AT 03 UTC 21.8 N / 68.8 E MAX WIND SPEED 85
KTS VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-13 05:06

WTIO31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.9N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.2N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.2N 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.1N 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.2N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.6N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.3N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND
140300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-13 04:27

WTIN01 DEMS 130425
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0300 UTC 13 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANEFORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 6 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13 TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 20.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 69.5 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
DIU, 110 KM SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 150 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF
PORBANDAR (GUJARAT).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COAST AFFECTING GIR SOMNATH,
DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA WITH WIND SPEED 75-80
KTS GUSTING TO 85 KTS FROM AFTERNOON OF 13 TH JUNE 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 HPA (.)

F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/13 AT 12 UTC 21.2 N / 69.3 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/14 AT 00 UTC 21.7 N / 68.9 E MAX WIND SPEED 85
KTS VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-13 02:45

WTIO51 PGTW 130300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190613014329
2019061300 02A VAYU 011 01 335 07 SATL 025
T000 202N 0693E 085 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 105 SE QD
105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 209N 0686E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 212N 0677E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 212N 0668E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 211N 0658E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 212N 0644E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD
160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 216N 0644E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 120 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 223N 0649E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 69.3E

>

2019-06-13 02:45

WTIO31 PGTW 130300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.9N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-13 02:32

WTIO51 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190613014329
2019061300 02A VAYU 011 01 335 07 SATL 025
T000 202N 0693E 085 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 209N 0686E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 212N 0677E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 212N 0668E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 211N 0658E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 212N 0644E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 216N 0644E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 223N 0649E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.9N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.2N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.2N 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.1N 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.2N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.6N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.3N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061300 202N 693E 85
0219061300 202N 693E 85
0219061300 202N 693E 85
NNNN

>

2019-06-12 21:15

WTIO51 PGTW 122100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190612195414
2019061218 02A VAYU 010 01 340 05 SATL 020
T000 196N 0696E 085 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 110 SE QD
115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 204N 0689E 085 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 209N 0681E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 210N 0672E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 210N 0662E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 209N 0644E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 213N 0642E 035 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 217N 0646E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

>

2019-06-12 21:15

WTIO31 PGTW 122100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.4N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-12 21:11

WTIO51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190612195414
2019061218 02A VAYU 010 01 340 05 SATL 020
T000 196N 0696E 085 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 204N 0689E 085 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 209N 0681E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 210N 0672E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 210N 0662E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 209N 0644E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 213N 0642E 035 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 217N 0646E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.4N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.0N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.0N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.9N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.3N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.7N 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 69.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
0219061218 196N 696E 85
NNNN

>

2019-06-12 21:11

WTIO31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.4N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.0N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.0N 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.9N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.3N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.7N 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 69.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, APPROXIMATELY
90-100 NM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE RAIN
BANDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 121612Z METOP-B ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS.
THE ASCAT PASS WAS ALSO USED TO ESTIMATE THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND
RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW
PGTW/KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) DUE TO WEAKENING TRENDS
IN THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK AIDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. THERE IS ALSO SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST.
TC 02A IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) OVER INDIA. IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ANOTHER STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH, CAUSING A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, TC 02A WILL TURN
SHARPLY NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING LEVEL OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES
LOWER. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN UNTIL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS BUT THERE IS WIDE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE WITH SOME MEMBERS SUGGESTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP NORTHWARD
TURN, CONSISTENT WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NAVGEM IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72 BUT CONTINUES THE WESTWARD
TRACK TOWARDS OMAN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH SIGNIFICANTLY THIS CYCLE TO
REFLECT THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-12 14:26

WTIO51 PGTW 121500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190612130000
2019061212 02A VAYU 009 01 345 07 SATL 010
T000 191N 0698E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD
145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 202N 0696E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 210N 0693E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 216N 0689E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 219N 0684E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 221N 0679E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 222N 0674E 045 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 228N 0675E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

>

2019-06-12 14:26

WTIO31 PGTW 121500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.2N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-12 13:54

WTIO51 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190612130000
2019061212 02A VAYU 009 01 345 07 SATL 010
T000 191N 0698E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 202N 0696E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 210N 0693E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 216N 0689E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 219N 0684E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 221N 0679E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 222N 0674E 045 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 228N 0675E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.2N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.0N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.6N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.9N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.1N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.2N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.8N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 69.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061118 168N 706E 80
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061200 176N 702E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
0219061212 191N 698E 90
NNNN

>

2019-06-12 13:51

WTIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.2N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.0N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.6N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.9N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.1N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.2N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.8N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 69.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE,
APPROXIMATELY 90-100NM DIAMETER, WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 120900Z AMSR2 36GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (30-
31C). TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER INDIA. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR AND A BUILDING STR OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA.
THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE STALL SCENARIO JUST
OFFSHORE OF NORTHWEST INDIA, HOWEVER, NVGM REMAINS THE PRIMARY
OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD OMAN INTO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE FLOW. THE 12/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING
WESTWARD AS NAVGEM INDICATES WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IT STALLING
OVER NORTHWEST INDIA OR JUST OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, CONVERGENCE
ALOFT AND POSSIBLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-12 11:56

WTIN01 DEMS 121154
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 12 JUNE 2019.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT
8 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF 12 TH JUNE,
2019 NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 70.0 DEG E OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA,
ABOUT 310 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 280 KM NEARLY
SOUTH OF VERAVAL
(GUJARAT) AND 360 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PORBANDAR (GUJARAT).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST
BETWEEN DWARKA
AND VERAVAL AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 85-90 KTS
GUSTING TO 95 KTS
AROUND AFTERNOON OF 13 TH JUNE 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO
75 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA.

F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/12 AT 18 UTC 20.0 N / 69.8 E MAX WIND 90 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/13 AT 06 UTC 21.2 N / 69.8 E MAX WIND SPEED 95
KTS SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 21 DEG N : SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 21 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1) N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 21 DEG N : SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 21 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1) N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/25 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 84 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 84 DEG: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT =

>

2019-06-12 09:01

WTIN01 DEMS 120900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 12 JUNE 2019.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAA'YU) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
ABOUT 06 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 12TH
JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 70.3 DEG E OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 460 KM NORTHWEST OF GOA (43192), 290
KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) (MAHARASHTRA) AND 320 KM NEARLY
SOUTH OF VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST
BETWEEN PORBANDAR (42830) AND DIU (42914) AROUND WEST OF VERAVAL
(42909) AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 78-84 KMPH
GUSTING TO 92 KTS 0000-0300 UTC OF 13TH JUNE 2019.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA.
ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 21 DEG N : SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 21 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1) N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 21 DEG N : SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 21 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1) N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0- 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/25 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 84 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 84 DEG: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
------------------------------------------

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-12 08:42

WTIO51 PGTW 120900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190612073042
2019061206 02A VAYU 008 01 345 08 SATL 010
T000 184N 0700E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD
155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 196N 0698E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 206N 0695E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 213N 0693E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 218N 0689E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 222N 0682E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 225N 0677E 045 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 229N 0676E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.4N 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

>

2019-06-12 08:28

WTIO31 PGTW 120900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.4N 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.6N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-12 08:26

WTIO51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190612073042
2019061206 02A VAYU 008 01 345 08 SATL 010
T000 184N 0700E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 196N 0698E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 206N 0695E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 213N 0693E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 218N 0689E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 222N 0682E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 225N 0677E 045 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 229N 0676E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.4N 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.6N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.6N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.3N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.8N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.2N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.5N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.9N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 70.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 168N 706E 75
0219061118 168N 706E 75
0219061118 168N 706E 75
0219061200 176N 702E 85
0219061200 176N 702E 85
0219061200 176N 702E 85
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
0219061206 184N 700E 90
NNNN

>

2019-06-12 08:14

WTIO31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.4N 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.6N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.6N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.3N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.8N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.2N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.5N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.9N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 70.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
RAGGED, SMALL EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. A 120501Z MHS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (30-
31C). TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER INDIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
INTO A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
AND A BUILDING STR OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. THE BULK OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE STALL SCENARIO JUST OFFSHORE OF
NORTHWEST INDIA, HOWEVER, NVGM REMAINS THE PRIMARY OUTLIER WITH AN
UNREALISTIC WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD OMAN INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE FLOW. THE 11/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD AS
NAVGEM INDICATES WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IT STALLING OVER
NORTHWEST INDIA OR JUST OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING. TC 02A IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND
POSSIBLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-12 04:15

WTIN01 DEMS 120413
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0330 UTC 12 JUNE 2019.

PART:-I STORM WARNING (.)

PART:-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
ABOUT 06 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 2100 UTC OF 11TH
JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 70.6 DEG E OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 450 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GOA, 290 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA) AND 380 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF
VERAVAL (GUJARAT).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST
BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND MAHUVA AROUND VERAVAL AND DIU REGION AS A
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 76-81 KTS GUSTING TO 89
KTS AROUND MORNING OF 13TH JUNE 2019.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 65 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E: SW-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/35 KTS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 58 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 64/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 20 DEG N : SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 20 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1) N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)W OF 63 DEG E SW/W-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1) N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0- 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/25 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 85 DEG: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-12 03:26

WTIN31 DEMS 120325

QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM VAYU OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BASED
UPON 0000 UTC OF 12TH JUNE 2019 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS
PREPARED:



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 120000 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 17.8 0N/70.50E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 355/07 KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 KT, GUSTS 85 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 060 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

120600Z 18.6ON /70.50 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 KT, GUSTS 85 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

121200Z 19.4ON /70.4OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 KT, GUSTS 90 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

18 HRS, VALID AT:

121800Z 20.1ON /70.40 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 KT, GUSTS 90 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24 HRS, VALID AT:

130000Z 20.7ON /70.30 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 KT, GUSTS 90 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:

131200Z 21.6ON /70.0OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



48 HRS, VALID AT:

140000Z 22.2ON /69.60 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



60 HRS, VALID AT:

141200Z 22.7ON /69.20 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



72 HRS, VALID AT:

150000Z 23.1ON /68.80 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 20 KT, GUSTS 30 KT=

>

2019-06-12 02:54

WTIO51 PGTW 120300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190612021155
2019061200 02A VAYU 007 01 340 11 SATL 015
T000 179N 0703E 085 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD
125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 193N 0700E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD
125 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 206N 0698E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD
105 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 214N 0696E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD
100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 220N 0692E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 225N 0687E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 228N 0684E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 231N 0680E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 70.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

>

2019-06-12 02:54

WTIO31 PGTW 120300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 70.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 70.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.3N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-12 02:49

WTIO51 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190612021155
2019061200 02A VAYU 007 01 340 11 SATL 015
T000 179N 0703E 085 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 193N 0700E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 206N 0698E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 214N 0696E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 220N 0692E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 225N 0687E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 228N 0684E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 231N 0680E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 70.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 70.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.3N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.6N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.4N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.0N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.5N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.8N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.1N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 70.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 169N 707E 75
0219061118 169N 707E 75
0219061118 169N 707E 75
0219061200 179N 703E 85
0219061200 179N 703E 85
0219061200 179N 703E 85
NNNN

>

2019-06-12 02:49

WTIO31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 70.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 70.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.3N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.6N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.4N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.0N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.5N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.8N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.1N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 70.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A LARGE CENTRAL MASS OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 112256Z SSMIS 37 AND 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES THAT SHOW A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEING OFFSET BY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC VAYU IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR OVER INDIA AND A SECOND STR
POSITIONED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT IN THE LATER TAUS JUST WEST
OF NORTHERN INDIA. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER REMAINS THE NAVGEM MODEL
WHOSE SOLUTION TURNS THE SYSTEM DUE WEST AROUND TAU 12 WHILE THE
REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. THE
NAVGEM SCENARIO REMAINS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE FLOW. TC VAYU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS,
WHICH IT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-11 21:35

WTIO51 PGTW 112100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190611204838
2019061118 02A VAYU 006 01 355 11 SATL 030
T000 171N 0707E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD
110 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 186N 0706E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 200N 0704E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD
105 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 211N 0702E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD
100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 218N 0699E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 224N 0694E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 229N 0689E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 233N 0685E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

>

2019-06-11 21:35

WTIO31 PGTW 112100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.6N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-11 21:29

WTIO51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190611204838
2019061118 02A VAYU 006 01 355 11 SATL 030
T000 171N 0707E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 186N 0706E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 200N 0704E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 211N 0702E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 218N 0699E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 224N 0694E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 229N 0689E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 233N 0685E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.6N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.0N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.1N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.8N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.4N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.9N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.3N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061118 171N 707E 75
0219061118 171N 707E 75
0219061118 171N 707E 75
NNNN

>

2019-06-11 21:29

WTIO31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.6N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.0N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.1N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.8N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.4N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.9N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.3N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION LOCATED
OVER TOP OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
THE SYSTEM HAS HAD AN EYE FEATURE AT TIMES, AS IT APPEARS TO BE
CONSOLIDATING. AT THE FIX TIME, THE EYE FEATURE WAS NOT VISIBLE AND
THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS IN LINE
WITH BOTH A RECENT ADT VALUE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS), AND THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KNOTS) WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED STRONG. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE VERY WARM AT AROUND 30-31 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC VAYU IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), POSITIONED OVER
CENTRAL INDIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT FALLS UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE STR
OVER INDIA AND A SECOND STR POSITIONED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE STALL SCENARIO OVER NORTHWEST INDIA
OR JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, NVGM CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN UNLIKELY
WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE FLOW.
TC VAYU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OF LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO A STEADY
WEAKENING THAT WILL RESULT IN FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-06-11 18:09

WTIN01 DEMS 111800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 11 JUNE 2019.

PART:-I STORM WARNING (.)

PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN
SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 09 KTS IN LAST
SIX HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 70.6 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 350 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GOA, 410 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA) AND 530 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST
BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND MAHUVA AROUND VERAVAL AND DIU REGION AS A
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 59-65
KTS GUSTING TO 73 KTS DURING EARLY MORNING OF 13TH JUNE 2019.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 HPA.
AT 1200 UTC OF 11TH JUNE, A BOUY LOCATED AT 12.0 DEG N/68.6 DEG E
REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001.6 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED OF 270 DEG /25 KNOTS.
ANOTHER BOUY LOCATED AT 14.9 DEG N/68.9 DEG E REPORTED A MEAN SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001.5 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION/SPEED OF
310 DEG/29 KNOTS. RATNAGIRI (43110) REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 998.7 HPA.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/35 KTS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 58 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 58 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 20 DEG N : SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 22 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO S OF 20 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 21 DEG N: 4.0-13.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)W OF 63 DEG E SW/W-LY 20/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-13.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/25 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 85 DEG: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-11 15:19

WTIN01 DEMS 111516
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 11 JUNE 2019.

PART:-I STORM WARNING (.)

PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 09 KTS
IN LAST SIX HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 70.6 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 350 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GOA, 410 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA) AND 530 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST
BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND MAHUVA AROUND VERAVAL AND DIU REGION AS A
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 59-65
KTS GUSTING TO 73 KTS DURING EARLY MORNING OF 13TH JUNE 2019.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 HPA.
AT 1200 UTC OF 11TH JUNE, A BOUY LOCATED AT 12.0 DEG N/68.6 DEG E
REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001.6 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED OF 270 DEG /25 KNOTS.
ANOTHER BOUY LOCATED AT 14.9 DEG N/68.9 DEG E REPORTED A MEAN SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001.5 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
OF 310 DEG/29 KNOTS. RATNAGIRI (43110) REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 998.7 HPA.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 63 DEG E: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: CYCLONIC 55/60 KTS (.)
2)W OF 63 DEG E SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-13.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E : SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-11 14:47

WTIO51 PGTW 111500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190611130532
2019061112 02A VAYU 005 01 355 08 SATL 010
T000 160N 0708E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD
120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 175N 0708E 080 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD
125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 191N 0707E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 204N 0705E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 214N 0702E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 224N 0697E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 228N 0694E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 232N 0691E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

>

2019-06-11 14:47

WTIO31 PGTW 111500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.5N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-11 14:31

WTIO51 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190611130532
2019061112 02A VAYU 005 01 355 08 SATL 010
T000 160N 0708E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 175N 0708E 080 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 191N 0707E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 204N 0705E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 214N 0702E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 224N 0697E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 228N 0694E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 232N 0691E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.5N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.1N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.4N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.4N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.4N 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.8N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.2N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
0219061112 160N 708E 65
NNNN

>

2019-06-11 14:22

WTIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.5N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.1N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.4N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.4N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.4N 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.8N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.2N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE, SMALL EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 110816Z
AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A COMPACT CORE, APPROXIMATELY 90NM
DIAMETER, WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) BASED ON THE EYE STRUCTURE
AND ADT VALUES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (30C). TC 02A IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER INDIA. AFTER
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS
INTO A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
AND A BUILDING STR OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. THE BULK OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE STALL SCENARIO OVER NORTHWEST INDIA
OR JUST OFFSHORE, HOWEVER, NVGM AND AEMN INDICATE AN UNLIKELY
WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE FLOW.
THE 11/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THE SYSTEM TRACKING BACK OVER WATER WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IT
STALLING OVER NORTHWEST INDIA AND DISSIPATING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
ARE NO SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKING THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY WESTWARD. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-11 13:30

WTIN01 DEMS 111328
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 11 JUNE 2019.

PART:-I STORM WARNING (.)

PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 13 KMPH IN
LAST SIX HOURS, SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED FURTHER AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200
UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH
JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 70.6 DEG E OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 340 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GOA, 440 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA) AND 570 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF
VERAVAL (GUJARAT). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST
BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND MAHUVA AROUND VERAVAL AND DIU REGION AS A
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 59-65 KTS GUSTING TO 73 KTS
DURING EARLY MORNING OF 13TH JUNE 2019. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 49 KNOTS GUSTING TO 62
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA (.)
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/11 AT 18 UTC 16.42 N / 70.36 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/12 AT 0600 UTC 18.24 N / 70.3 E MAX WIND SPEED
55 KTS SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 70 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 63 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 63 DEG E: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 63 DEG E: CYCLONIC 55/60 KTS (.)
2)W OF 63 DEG E SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-13.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E : SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-11 09:43

WTIN01 DEMS 110900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 11 JUNE 2019.

PART:-I STORM WARNING (.)

PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAAYU) OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 5 KTS
IN LAST SIX HOURS,SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED FURTHER AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 11 TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 70.6 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 340
KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GOA, 490 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA) AND 630 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS (.)
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND CROSS GUJARAT
COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND MAHUVA AROUND VERAVAL AND DIU REGION
AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 60-65 KTS GUSTING
TO 70 KTS DURING EARLY MORNING OF 13 TH JUNE 2019 (.)

F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KTS GUSTING TO 55
KTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 HPA (.)
12 HRS VALID 2019/06/12 AT 18 UTC 16.7 N / 70.6 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/06/12 AT 06 UTC 18.4 N / 70.5 E MAX WIND SPEED 60
KTS SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 74 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 21 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 21 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 21 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 21 DEG N: 4.0-13.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)W OF 63 DEG E SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-13.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2019-06-11 09:08

WTIO51 PGTW 110900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190611081757
2019061106 02A VAYU 004 01 015 07 SATL 060
T000 152N 0709E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 167N 0710E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD
160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 183N 0709E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 198N 0708E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 211N 0705E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 224N 0699E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 230N 0693E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 235N 0689E 035 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 70.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

>

2019-06-11 09:08

WTIO31 PGTW 110900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 70.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 70.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.7N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-11 08:49

WTIO51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190611081757
2019061106 02A VAYU 004 01 015 07 SATL 060
T000 152N 0709E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 167N 0710E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 183N 0709E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 198N 0708E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 211N 0705E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 224N 0699E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 230N 0693E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 235N 0689E 035 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 70.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 70.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.7N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.3N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.8N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.1N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.4N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.0N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.5N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 70.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061100 145N 707E 50
0219061106 152N 709E 55
0219061106 152N 709E 55
NNNN

>

2019-06-11 08:49

WTIO31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 70.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 70.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.7N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.3N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.8N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.1N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.4N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.0N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.5N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 70.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 110409Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
AND IS CORROBORATED WITH A 110522Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A
FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 55
KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 02A IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY SHEAR ZONE INTO A REGION OF LIGHTER
SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT,
EXCEEDING 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 02A TOOK A JOG TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTH UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER INDIA. A PEAK INTENSITY OF
APPROXIMATELY 90 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED BY AROUND TAU 36,
FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER AS THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD
INCREASES, WITH ECMWF, AFUM, AND UKMET TAKING TC 02A FURTHER INLAND
TO THE EAST, WHEREAS THE NAVGEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE TAKE THE SYSTEM
TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS AND IS NUDGED EASTWARD FROM THE LAST JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
RESULTING IN AN EARLIER LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND
120900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-11 03:02

WTIO31 PGTW 110300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 70.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.2N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-11 02:58

WTIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 70.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.2N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.8N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.3N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.4N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.1N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.8N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.3N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 70.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 102310Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS EXCELLENT BANDING AND A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A DVORAK CI
OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED ALLOWING THE UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER INDIA. TC 02A
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AND INCREASE TO AN
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BEYOND TAU 36, TC 02A WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS
TO INCREASE. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL THEN TURN THE REMAINING LLCC TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LESS AGREEMENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. NAVGEM STILL INDICATES A SHARP WESTWARD TURN
WHILE UKMET SHOWS A NORTHWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN. THE
SPREAD BETWEEN NAVGEM AND UKMET IS 655 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-11 02:50

WTIO51 PGTW 110300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190611012741
2019061100 02A VAYU 003 01 355 08 SATL 030
T000 147N 0706E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 162N 0706E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD
160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 178N 0705E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD
160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 193N 0703E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 204N 0699E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 221N 0690E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 228N 0685E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 233N 0683E 035 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

>

2019-06-11 02:43

WTIO51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190611012741
2019061100 02A VAYU 003 01 355 08 SATL 030
T000 147N 0706E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 162N 0706E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 178N 0705E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 193N 0703E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 204N 0699E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 221N 0690E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 228N 0685E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 233N 0683E 035 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 70.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.2N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.8N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.3N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.4N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.1N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.8N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.3N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 70.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
0219061100 147N 706E 50
0219061100 147N 706E 50
NNNN

>

2019-06-10 21:15

WTIO51 PGTW 102100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190610202652
2019061018 02A TWO 002 01 350 06 SATL 050
T000 139N 0707E 045 R034 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 152N 0707E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 095 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 165N 0706E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 181N 0705E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD
130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 194N 0703E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 214N 0695E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 222N 0691E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 230N 0690E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-10 21:14

WTIO31 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.2N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-06-10 21:11

WTIO51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190610202652
2019061018 02A TWO 002 01 350 06 SATL 050
T000 139N 0707E 045 R034 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 152N 0707E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 165N 0706E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 181N 0705E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 194N 0703E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 214N 0695E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 222N 0691E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 230N 0690E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.2N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.1N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.4N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.4N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.2N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.0N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 127N 709E 30
0219061012 133N 708E 35
0219061018 139N 707E 45
NNNN

>

2019-06-10 21:11

WTIO31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.2N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.1N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.4N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.4N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.2N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.0N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 101650Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE. THE LLCC POSITION IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST OF THE MICROWAVE EYE BASED ON MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM EAST TO WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES ALONG WITH AN ADT OF T3.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A HAS A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG
WITH A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
02A IS TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER INDIA. TC 02A WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AND INCREASE TO AN INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASES BEYOND TAU 72 WHICH WILL
CAUSE TC 02A TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EXPERIENCE INCREASED SHEAR THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WILL THEN TURN THE REMAINING LLCC TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
COAST OF INDIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH TURNS TC 02A SHARPLY TO THE WEST BY TAU 48.
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW TC 02A TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWEST
TRACK THEN FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD INDIA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND A 515 NM SPREAD BETWEEN
CONSENSUS MEMBERS (NAVGEM AND AFUM) BY TAU 120 THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z,
111500Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-10 14:26

WTIO51 PGTW 101500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190610131753
2019061012 02A TWO 001 01 345 08 SATL 020
T000 134N 0708E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 146N 0709E 045 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 159N 0708E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 173N 0707E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 187N 0705E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 207N 0699E 045 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 221N 0695E 035 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 232N 0693E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-06-10 14:20

WTIO51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 190610131753
2019061012 02A TWO 001 01 345 08 SATL 020
T000 134N 0708E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 146N 0709E 045 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 159N 0708E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 173N 0707E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 187N 0705E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 207N 0699E 045 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 221N 0695E 035 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 232N 0693E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.9N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.3N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.7N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.7N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.1N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.2N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
//
0219060818 95N 715E 20
0219060900 99N 715E 20
0219060906 103N 714E 20
0219060912 107N 713E 20
0219060918 112N 711E 25
0219061000 121N 712E 30
0219061006 126N 710E 30
0219061012 134N 708E 35
NNNN

>