Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ANDREA-19
Off-shore

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2019-05-21 20:37

WTNT41 KNHC 212033
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

The cyclone has lacked deep convection since early this morning,
and therefore it no longer qualifies as either a tropical or a
subtropical cyclone. Dry mid-level air, the influence of an
upper-level low, and marginal SSTs should preclude re-development.
The cyclone is likely to dissipate in a day or so as it becomes
absorbed into a frontal zone.

Post-tropical Andrea has turned to the east-northeast and the
motion is about 070/7. The system should move mainly eastward
within the mid-level westerlies until dissipation.

This is the last advisory on Andrea. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 30.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 31.2N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1800Z 31.7N 62.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-05-21 20:37

WTNT31 KNHC 212033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

...ANDREA IS A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 68.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 68.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph
(13 km/h) and a turn toward the east is expected tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to dissipate by Wednesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-05-21 20:36

WTNT21 KNHC 212032
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019
2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.2N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.7N 62.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 68.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-05-21 14:39

WTNT41 KNHC 211435
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event. The
cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now
essentially devoid of deep convection. In fact, at first glance,
the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be
the most dominant feature. Based on the lack of convection and a
buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is
being downgraded to a subtropical depression. Since the cyclone is
expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and
environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or
less.

The system has moved a little more to the north than previously
estimated and the initial motion is 360/7. Upper-level westerlies
should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until
dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to but a
little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 30.8N 69.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-05-21 14:38

WTNT31 KNHC 211434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
a turn toward the northeast and east is expected tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Andrea is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by this evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-05-21 14:38

WTNT21 KNHC 211434
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019
1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-05-21 08:39

WTNT41 KNHC 210835
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

During the past few hours, deep convection has waned considerably,
likely due to the entrainment of dry mid-level from the south and
modest southerly vertical wind shear as indciated by GOES-16 mid-
and upper-level water vapor imagery. As mentioned in the previous
advisory discussion, an earlier ASCAT overpass just barely caught
35-kt winds about 50-55 nmi northeast of the low-level center, which
was likely just outside the radius of maximum winds. Since slightly
stronger winds could have existed closer to the center, the initial
intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory despite the
aforementioned degradation in the convective pattern.

The initial motion estimate is 360/05 kt. It appears that Andrea is
slowing down, implying that a turn toward the northeast should occur
within the next 6-12 h as a deep-layer trough and cold front
steadily approach the cyclone from the northwest. The global and
regional models remain in good agreement that Andrea will turn
northeastward later today, and then move eastward by tonight and
Wednesday when the cyclone becomes embedded within the approaching
deep-layer mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC track forecast is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory and lies a little
south of the middle of the track guidance envelope.

Although deep convection has decreased markedly, thunderstorm
activity should redevelop some by this afternoon and tonight when
Andrea will be moving eastward over an SST thermal ridge and into
a region of convective instability that exist between 65W-68W
longitude. which will also be coincident with the vertical wind
shear decreasing to less than 5 kt as per SHIPS model output.
However, some slight spin down of the vortex will likely occur
before convection can re-fire and re-strengthens the system. Thus,
the intensity forecast essentially calls for little change in
strength for the next 24 h or so, followed by weakening due to
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, and then merger with
a cold front on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast closely
follows the IVCN consensus model and the weakening trend noted in
the global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 30.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 30.7N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 31.2N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-05-21 08:39

WTNT31 KNHC 210835
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 69.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 69.0 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and that general
motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the
northeast is forecast by this afternoon, followed by an eastward
motion by late tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest and south of
Bermuda during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, followed by weakening
late tonight. Andrea is expected to dissipate on Wednesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-05-21 08:39

WTNT21 KNHC 210834
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019
0900 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 69.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 69.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 30.7N 68.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.2N 66.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 69.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-05-21 02:36

WTNT41 KNHC 210231
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

There has not been much change in association with Andrea since the
previous advisory a few hours ago. Satellite images show a
persistent area of deep convection that is mainly confined to the
north of the center, with less organized convection wrapping around
to the southeastern quadrant. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed
maximum winds of 35 kt, which is similar to what the aircraft found
earlier this evening and in about the same location. Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt. This estimate is also in
agreement with the latest satellite intensity consensus from CIMSS
at the University of Wisconsin.

Andrea is located a few hundred miles from a mid- to upper-level
low, and its interaction with this feature is part of the reason why
the cyclone is considered subtropical. This upper low and a ridge
to the east is causing Andrea to move northward at about 10 kt. The
models are in good agreement that Andrea should slow down and turn
northeastward on Tuesday, and then eastward Tuesday night and
Wednesday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies
near the middle of the model guidance.

Andrea could strengthen slightly overnight while it remains in a
relatively moist and unstable atmosphere. However, after that time,
a gradual weakening trend is predicted due to less favorable
environmental conditions. All of the reliable models agree that
Andrea will merge with, or be absorbed by, a cold front on
Wednesday. This intensity forecast is in best agreement with the
GFS model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 29.5N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 31.1N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 31.3N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-05-21 02:35

WTNT31 KNHC 210231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 68.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea
was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 68.7 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed and a turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday,
followed by an eastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest or
south of Bermuda during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening should begin
late Tuesday, and Andrea is expected to dissipate on Wednesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) northeast of
the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-05-21 02:35

WTNT21 KNHC 210231
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019
0300 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 68.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 68.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.1N 67.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-05-20 22:38

WTNT41 KNHC 202234
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that the area of low pressure
that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring to the
southwest of Bermuda has developed into a subtropical storm.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have recently exited the cyclone and
found that the system has developed a well-defined center and has a
minimum pressure of about 1006 mb. The maximum adjusted flight-level
and surface SFMR winds support an intensity of about 35 kt. The
cyclone is considered subtropical at this time because it is
interacting with an upper-level low pressure system to its west,
has a relatively large radius of maximum wind, and its overall
appearance in satellite images.

Based on satellite and aircraft fixes today, the initial motion of
Andrea is estimated to be northward at 12 kt as it has been moving
in the flow between a subtropical ridge to its east and a mid- to
upper-level low to its west. The models show Andrea slowing down
and gradually turning to the northeast on Tuesday and eastward by
Tuesday night as it moves on the northern periphery of the ridge.

Andrea could strengthen slightly through early Tuesday while it
remains in a fairly moist and unstable atmosphere. However, after
that time, gradual weakening should commence due to less favorable
conditions, and all of the reliable models show Andrea opening into
a trough and becoming absorbed by a cold front on Wednesday. The
NHC official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2230Z 28.8N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 30.2N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 31.1N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 31.5N 66.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-05-20 22:33

WTNT31 KNHC 202228
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 630 PM AST...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 68.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 630 PM AST (2230 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 68.7 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in
forward speed and a turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday,
followed by an eastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest or
south of Bermuda during the next day or two.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening should
begin late Tuesday, and Andrea is expected to dissipate on
Wednesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) northeast of
the center.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters measured a minimum central pressure
of 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-05-20 22:31

WTNT21 KNHC 202227
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019
2230 UTC MON MAY 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 68.7W AT 20/2230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 68.7W AT 20/2230Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 68.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.2N 68.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 31.1N 68.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.5N 66.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>