Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LORNA-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-04-29 18:04

WTIO20 FMEE 291757
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-LORNA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 89.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 1000 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/30 AT 06 UTC:
24.4 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/30 AT 18 UTC:
27.4 S / 90.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-04-29 14:11

WTXS32 PGTW 291500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.5S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35

>

2019-04-29 14:04

WTXS32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.5S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS). THERE IS LIKELY STRONGER WINDS ON THE SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION, ENHANCED BY THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY HOSTILE WITH EXTREMELY HIGH (50-60
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND COOL (24-25
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 25S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12, UNDER CONTINUED HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
FORECAST AND HIGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 20 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-29 12:35

WTIO20 FMEE 291227
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-LORNA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 89.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 800 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/30 AT 00 UTC:
23.9 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/30 AT 12 UTC:
26.3 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-29 08:38

WTXS32 PGTW 290900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 89.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 89.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.7S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS

>

2019-04-29 08:30

WTXS32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 89.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 89.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.7S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.7S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 89.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS IDENTIFIED USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO TRACK THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
THE COMPLETE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KTS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KTS) BASED ON A 290340Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BROAD
AREA OF 50 KT WINDS, PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGH. HIGH (45-50 KT) VWS AND
UNFAVORABLE (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE OVERWHELMING
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24, IF
NOT SOONER. UNTIL THEN, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BASED ON EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT
AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-29 06:24

WTIO31 FMEE 290614 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 89.3 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 560 SO: 370 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 130 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 90.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 01/05/2019 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 93.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2019 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 97.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

>

2019-04-29 06:24

WTIO30 FMEE 290614 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 89.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 560 SW: 370 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 90.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/05/01 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 93.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/05/01 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 97.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

>

2019-04-29 06:21

WTIO31 FMEE 290614
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 89.3 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 560 SO: 370 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 130 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 90.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 01/05/2019 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 93.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2019 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 97.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION S'EST BIEN DEGRADEE
SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST (ANALYSE A 30 KT PAR LE
CIMSS A 03Z) AVEC UN CENTRE CPMPLETEMENT EXPOSE AU NORD-OUEST DE LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA VA POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT
VERS LE SUD, PROCHE DU 90AOE, PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU
SUD DU SYSTEME, QUI LIMITE UNE EVACUATION PLUS RAPIDE VERS LE SUD, SE
DECALE ET LAISSE PLACE A UN PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. LORNA VA ALORS ACCELERER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST A L'AVANT DU TALWEG.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MAINTENANT DEFAVORABLES. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST EST FORT
FAVORISANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER
EGALEMENT A AFFAIBLIR LA CIRCULATION. EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET
SUBTROPICAL, DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL, AVANT DE SE COMBLER PLUS
NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI.=

>

2019-04-29 06:21

WTIO30 FMEE 290614
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 89.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 560 SW: 370 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 90.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/05/01 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 93.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/05/01 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 97.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ANALYSED AT 30 KT BY THE CIMSS AT 03Z)
WITH A CENTER COMPLETLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK,
NEAR 90AOEAST, STEERING BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
FROM TUESDAY, A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT
LIMITED A FASTER EVACUATION TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST. SO LORNA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
THE TROUGH.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW UNFAVORABLE. THE NORTH-WESTERLY TO
WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STRONG INDUCING DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN
MID TROPOSPHERE.THE WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S
SHOULD ACCELERATE THAT WEAKENING.IN THE NEXT HOURS LORNA SHOULD START
TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET, BEFORE FILLING UP MORE CLEARLY FROM
TUESDAY.=

>

2019-04-29 06:19

WTIO20 FMEE 290612
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/04/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/04/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 89.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 500 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/29 AT 18 UTC:
22.8 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/30 AT 06 UTC:
24.8 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-29 02:46

WTXS32 PGTW 290300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 89.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 89.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.8S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.9S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

>

2019-04-29 02:35

WTXS32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 89.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 89.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.8S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.9S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ELONGATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS BECOME OFFSET SOUTHWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND
HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY COLLAPSE AND DISPERSE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXPOSED, RAGGED, BUT WELL
DEFINED LLC FEATURES IN THE 282330Z SSMIS AND 290036Z GPM MICROWAVE
IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING
DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-04-29 00:43

WTIO31 FMEE 290025 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/15/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 90.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 740 SO: 650 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2019 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 96.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

>

2019-04-29 00:43

WTIO30 FMEE 290025 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 90.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 740 SW: 650 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/05/01 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 96.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

>

2019-04-29 00:30

WTIO31 FMEE 290025
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/15/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 90.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 740 SO: 650 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2019 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 96.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION S'EST BIEN DEGRADEE
SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST (ANALYSE A 30 KT PAR LE
CIMSS A 18Z) AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI S'EST BIEN DA CALE DANS
LE SECTEUR SUD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION.

AU COURS DE PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA VA POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
LE SUD, PROCHE DU 90AOE, PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU
SUD DU SYSTEME, QUI LIMITE UNE EVACUATION PLUS RAPIDE VERS LE SUD, SE
DECALE ET LAISSE PLACE A UN PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. LORNA VA ALORS ACCELERER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST A L'AVANT DU TALWEG.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MAINTENANT DEFAVORABLES. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST EST FORT
FAVORISANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER
EGALEMENT A AFFAIBLIR LA CIRCULATION. AUJOURD'HUI, EN INTERAGISSANT
AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL, AVANT DE SE COMBLER PLUS
NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI.=

>

2019-04-29 00:30

WTIO30 FMEE 290025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 90.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 740 SW: 650 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/05/01 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 96.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ANALYSED AT 30 KT BY THE CIMSS AT 18Z)
WITH A DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS SHIFTED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK,
NEAR 90AOEAST, STEERING BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
FROM TUESDAY, A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT
LIMITED A FASTER EVACUATION TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST. SO LORNA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
THE TROUGH.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW UNFAVORABLE. THE NORTH-WESTERLY TO
WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STRONG INDUCING DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN
MID TROPOSPHERE.THE WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S
SHOULD ACCELERATE THAT WEAKENING. TODAY, LORNA SHOULD START TO LOOSE
ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET, BEFORE FILLING UP MORE CLEARLY FROM TUESDAY.=

>

2019-04-28 21:06

WTXS32 PGTW 282100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 90.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 90.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.3S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-28 20:42

WTXS32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 90.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 90.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.3S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.3S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.5S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.5S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 90.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ELONGATE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK, AN INDICATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CENTRAL
CLOUD TOPS ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
STRONG AND RAIN BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE
FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT HAS SINCE BECOME OBSCURED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5/75KTS FROM PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25
KNOTS PLUS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE AT 26C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY. AFTERWARD, A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW A
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 48, TC LORNA WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL ALSO
TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE, ERODING THE CYCLONE TO 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 48, POSSIBLY DISSIPATION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-28 18:13

WTIO31 FMEE 281804 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/15/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 90.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 740 SO: 650 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 91.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2019 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

>

2019-04-28 18:13

WTIO30 FMEE 281804 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 90.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 740 SW: 650 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 91.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/05/01 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

>

2019-04-28 18:10

WTIO31 FMEE 281804
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/15/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 90.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 740 SO: 650 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 91.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2019 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'OEIL EST PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENU
MIEUX DEFINI. DANS LES MA ME TEMPS, LES SOMMETS DES NUAGES SONT
RESTES BIEN FROIDS. EN CONSEQUENCE, LES NOMBRES T BRUTS SONT MONTES A
6.0 DE 1500Z A 1700Z. LA PASSE PARTIELLE MICRO-ONDE DE 1121Z ANNONA
AIT L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION EN MONTRANT UN ANNEAU DE
CONVECTION EXTREMEMENT INTENSE. MAIS LES IMAGES MONTRENT AUSSI UN
TILT IMPORTANT ENTRE LE CENTRE DE BASSE COUCHE ET LA CIRCULATION DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST QUI
SE RENFORCE. D'AILLEURS, L'IMAGE AMSU 89 GHZ DE 1517Z MONTRE LE MUR
DE L'OEIL BIEN ERODA DANS LE QUADRANT NORD ANNONA ANT UN
AFFAIBLISSEMNT DU SYSTEME.

AU COURS DE PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA VA POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
LE SUD, PROCHE DU 90AOE, PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU
SUD DU SYSTEME, QUI LIMITE UNE EVACUATION PLUS RAPIDE VERS LE SUD, SE
DECALE ET LAISSE PLACE A UN PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. LORNA VA ALORS ACCELERER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST A L'AVANT DU TALWEG.

LA FENETRE FAVORABLE A INTENSIFICATION DE LORNA VA BIENTOT SE
TERMINER AVEC LA HAUSSE ATTENDUE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST D'ICI CETTE NUIT, FAVORISANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S
DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER EGALEMENT A AFFAIBLIR LA CIRCULATION. A PARTIR
DE DEMAIN, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL, AVANT DE SE
COMBLER PLUS NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI.=

>

2019-04-28 18:10

WTIO30 FMEE 281804
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 90.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 740 SW: 650 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 91.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/05/01 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, EYE HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY BETTER DEFINED.
IN THE SAME TIME, TOP CLOUD TEMPERATURES HAS REMAINED VERY COLD. AS A
CONSEQUENCE, RAW T NUMBERS HAVE RAISED AT 6.0 BETWEEN 1500Z AND
1700Z. PARTIAL 1121Z ASCAT SWATH ANNOUNCED THIS IMPROVEMENT SHOWING A
RING OF CONVECTION VERY INTENSE. BUT GMI IMAGERIES SHOWED ALSO A TILT
BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE
TO THE INCREASING WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. BY THE WAY, 89 GHZ
1517Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ERODED EYEWALL WITHIN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT ANNOUNCING A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK,
NEAR 90AOEAST, STEERING BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
FROM TOMORROW, A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT
LIMITED A FASTER EVACUATION TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST. SO LORNA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
THE TROUGH.

THE TIME WINDOW FOR CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY,
WITH A FORECAST INCREASE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, INDUCING DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS IN MID TROPOSPHERE.THE WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD ACCELERATE THAT WEAKENING. TOMORROW,
LORNA SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET, BEFORE FILLING UP MORE
CLEARLY FROM TUESDAY.=

>

2019-04-28 18:10

WTIO20 FMEE 281801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 90.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/29 AT 06 UTC:
20.9 S / 89.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/29 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 89.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-28 14:09

WTXS32 PGTW 281500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.2S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-28 14:04

WTXS32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.2S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.0S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 27.0S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 89.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 538 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED, THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED, AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATING THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 281116Z GMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE. DESPITE THE DECAY IN THE
CLOUD PATTERN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KTS. THIS INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KTS). MODERATE (20-25 KT) VWS AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ARE OFFSETTING EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND TAU 24, INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) TO BEGIN. BY TAU 48, ETT WILL BE COMPLETE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE CONSENSUS TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-28 13:34

WTIO31 FMEE 281238 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/15/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 90.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 480 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

>

2019-04-28 13:34

WTIO30 FMEE 281238 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 90.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

>

2019-04-28 13:31

WTIO31 FMEE 281238
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/15/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 90.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 480 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'OEIL S'EST LEGEREMENT ECLAIRCI
AVANT DE COMMENCER A DISPARAITRE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. AU VU DES
ANALYSES DVORAK, L'INTENSITE A ETE REHAUSSEE A 75KT MAIS LA PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SEMBLE PROCHE. UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
NORD ETAIT TEMPORAIREMENT VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES 89GHZ DE LA PASSE
SSMIS DE 0939Z.

AU COURS DE PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA VA POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
LE SUD, PROCHE DU 90AOE, PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LA PRESENCE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD DU
SYSTEME QUI LIMITAIT UNE EVACUATION PLUS RAPIDE VERS LE SUD S'ATTENUE
ET A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
PAR LE SUD-OUEST, LORNA ACCELERERA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST.

LA FENETRE FAVORABLE A INTENSIFICATION DE LORNA VA BIENTOT SE
TERMINER AVEC LA HAUSSE ATTENDUE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST D'ICI CE SOIR, FAVORISANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S
DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER EGALEMENT A AFFAIBLIR LA CIRCULATION. A PARTIR
DE DEMAIN, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL, AVANT DE SE
COMBLER PLUS NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI.=

>

2019-04-28 13:31

WTIO30 FMEE 281238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 90.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE GOT CLEARER BEFORE DISAPPEARING ON THE
LAST IMAGES. GIVEN THE DVORAK ANALYSISES, INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO
75KT BUT THE WEAKENING PHASE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY. A WEAKNESS IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WAS TEMPORARILY VISIBLE ON THE 0939Z 89GHZ
SSMIS.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK,
NEAR 90AOEAST, STEERING BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH LIMITED A
FASTER EVACUATION TO THE SOUTH, IS ATTENUATED AND FROM TUESDAY, A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD ALLOW A
QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

THE TIME WINDOW FOR CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY,
WITH A FORECAST INCREASE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, INDUCING DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS IN MID TROPOSPHERE.THE WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD ACCELERATE THAT WEAKENING. TOMORROW,
LORNA SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET, BEFORE FILLING UP MORE
CLEARLY FROM TUESDAY.=

>

2019-04-28 12:23

WTIO20 FMEE 281218
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 90.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 260 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/29 AT 00 UTC:
20.4 S / 89.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/29 AT 12 UTC:
22.1 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-28 08:17

WTXS32 PGTW 280900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 89.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 89.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.5S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-28 08:11

WTXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 89.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 89.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.5S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.2S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.1S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.2S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.9S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 89.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DESPITE BEING ASYMMETRIC DUE TO
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THE SYSTEM HAS A 10 NM WIDE
EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION OWING TO THE
EYE. ADDITIONALLY, THE POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 280246Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS).
MODERATE (10-15 KT) VWS, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE, BUT THAT IS LIKELY SHORT-LIVED. TC 25S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
BY TAU 48, TC 25S WILL BE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS AND
BEGIN ACCELERATING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BASED ON THE
RECENT SPIKE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE EYE FORMING, THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY HAS SHIFTED FROM A DISSIPATION SCENARIO TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SCENARIO. BY TAU 36, INTERACTION WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF ETT, WITH COMPLETION
EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COOL
SST AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-28 07:13

WTIO31 FMEE 280639 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/15/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 89.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 480 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+

>

2019-04-28 07:13

WTIO30 FMEE 280639 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 89.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+

>

2019-04-28 07:10

WTIO31 FMEE 280639
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/15/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 89.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 480 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, UN OEIL EST APPARU EN IMAGERIE
VISIBLE ET INFRAROUGE AU SEIN D'UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF ASSEZ FROID.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR LE MET/PT EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES SATCON/ADT. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT
SEMBLENT INDIQUER QUE LA STRUCTURE S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE DEPUIS
HIER SOIR. D'AILLEURS LA PASSE SMAP DE 1156Z HIER, INDIQUE SEULEMENT
DES VENTS MAXIMUMS DE 50KT. CE CREUSEMENT SEMBLE AVOIR ETE FAVORISE
PAR UNE HAUSSE DE LA DIVERGENCE PRECEDANT LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
DE NORD-OUEST ET ETRE LIE A L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME.

AU COURS DE PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA VA POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
LE SUD, PROCHE DU 90AOE, PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LA PRESENCE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD DU
SYSTEME QUI LIMITAIT UNE EVACUATION PLUS RAPIDE VERS LE SUD S'ATTENUE
ET A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
PAR LE SUD-OUEST, LORNA ACCELERERA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST.

LA FENETRE FAVORABLE A INTENSIFICATION DE LORNA VA BIENTOT SE
TERMINER AVEC LA HAUSSE ATTENDUE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST, FAVORISANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIENT
PARTICIPER EGALEMENT A AFFAIBLIR LA CIRCULATION. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN,
EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE
SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL, AVANT DE SE COMBLER PLUS
NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI.=

>

2019-04-28 07:10

WTIO30 FMEE 280639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 89.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AN EYE APPEARED IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY WITH A
RATHER COLD CONVECTIVE RING. INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON MET/PT IN
AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SATCON/ADT. LAST NIGHT MICROWAVE
CONFIRM AN IMPORVEMENT OF THE INNER STRUCTURE. YESTERDAY 1156Z SMAP
SWATH SHOWED ONLY 50KT FOR MAXIMUM WINDS. THIS DEEPENING WAS PROBABLY
FAVORED BY AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE PRECEDING THE INCREASE
OF NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, AND RELATED TO THE SYSTEM ACCELERATION;


DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK,
NEAR 90AOEAST, STEERING BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH LIMITED A
FASTER EVACUATION TO THE SOUTH, IS ATTENUATED AND FROM TUESDAY, A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD ALLOW A
QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

THE TIME WINDOW FOR CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY,
WITH A FORECAST INCREASE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, INDUCING DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS IN MID TROPOSPHERE.THE WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD ACCELERATE THAT WEAKENING. TOMORROW,
LORNA SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET, BEFORE FILLING UP MORE
CLEARLY FROM TUESDAY.=

>

2019-04-28 06:29

WTIO20 FMEE 280621
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/04/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/04/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 89.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 260 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/28 AT 18 UTC:
18.8 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/29 AT 06 UTC:
20.6 S / 89.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-28 03:09

WTXS32 PGTW 280300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.7S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-28 02:39

WTXS32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.7S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.4S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.1S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.1S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 89.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS
EVIDENCED BY ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND WARMING CENTRAL
CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM DEFINED LLCS IN THE 272235Z AMSU AND 272035Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS TO REFLECT THE CONVECTIVE DECAY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25 KNOTS
AND INCREASING) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE AT 27C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
AFTER TAU 12, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-28 00:41

WTIO31 FMEE 280002 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 89.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-28 00:41

WTIO30 FMEE 280002 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 89.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-28 00:14

WTIO31 FMEE 280002
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 89.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT S'EST FAIT
RESSENTIR AVEC UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CONVECTION. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES AMRS2 LAISSENT AUSSI APPARAITRE UN BASCULEMENT VERS LE
SUD DU VORTEX AVEC L'ALTITUDE : LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
(37GHZ) EST PLUS AU NORD. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK LAISSE ALORS ENCORE DE
VENTS DE L'ORDRE 60KT, MAIS CEUX-CI NE DEVRAIENT PLUS TARDER A
FAIBLIR.

LA VARIABILITE ENTRE LES RESEAUX ET LES MODELES S'AMENUISENT. LA
CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE EST DONC
MEILLEURE. AU COURS DE PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA POURSUIVRERA SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, PROCHE DU 90AOE, PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST DE
LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LA PRESENCE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
AU SUD DU SYSTEME QUI LIMITAIT UNE EVACUATION PLUS RAPIDE VERS LE SUD
S'ATTENUE ET A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES PAR LE SUD-OUEST, LORNA ACCELERERA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST.

LORNA EST MAINTENANT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE DE SECTEUR NORD
MODERE A FORT QUI CONTINUE D'AUGMENTER ET DE S'ORIENTER VERS LE
NORD-OUEST. CET ENVIRONNEMENT BLOQUE L'INTENSITE DE LORNA QUI VA
PROGRESSIVEMENT FAIBLIR. L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO ET UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER
EGALEMENT A AFFAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LA CIRCULATION. A PARTIR DE
LUNDI, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL, AVANT DE SE COMBLER
PLUS NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI.=

>

2019-04-28 00:14

WTIO30 FMEE 280002
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 89.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SHEAR EFFECT WAS FELT WITH A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF CONVECTION. THE AMRS2 MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A
SOUTHWARD TILTING OF THE VORTEX WITH ALTITUDE : THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (37GHZ) IS FURTHER NORTH. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE THEN STILL
LEAVES WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 60KT, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.

THE VARIABILITY BETWEEN ANALYSIS TIMES AND MODELS IS DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND INTENSITY PREDICTION IS THEREFORE BETTER.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK,
NEAR 90AOEAST, STEERING BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH LIMITED A
FASTER EVACUATION TO THE SOUTH, IS ATTENUATED AND FROM TUESDAY, A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD ALLOW A
QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

LORNA IS NOW IN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWARD SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND TURN NORTHWEST. THIS ENVIRONMENT BLOCKS THE
LORNA'S INTENSITY, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE ADVECTION OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S
SHOULD ADD TO THE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. FROM MONDAY, LORNA SHOULD
LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET, BEFORE FILLING UP MORE CLEARLY FROM
TUESDAY.=

>

2019-04-27 23:59

WTIO20 FMEE 272353
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/04/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/04/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 89.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/28 AT 12 UTC:
17.7 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/29 AT 00 UTC:
19.9 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-27 21:00

WTXS32 PGTW 272100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.6S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-27 20:40

WTXS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.6S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.3S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.9S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.6S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 89.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS
EVIDENCED BY ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND WARMING CENTRAL
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A 271540Z ASCAT 25-KM RESOLUTION TIGHT BULLSEYE PASS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
HIGH (25 KNOTS AND INCREASING) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO 27C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING
PHASE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-27 18:23

WTIO31 FMEE 271809 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 89.1 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/05/2019 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 97.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-27 18:23

WTIO30 FMEE 271809 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 89.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/05/01 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 97.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-27 18:21

WTIO31 FMEE 271809
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 89.1 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/05/2019 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 97.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

CELA FAIT PRES DE 18 HEURES QUE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE LORNA
N'A PAS EVOLUE. EN IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE, LE SYSTEME GARDE SA
CONFIGURATION A NEBULOSITE CENTRALE FROIDE. IL EN VA DE MEME AVEC LA
STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES QUI N'EVOLUE PAS SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
D'APRES LES DONNEES METOP-A DE 1539UTC. L'INTENSITE RESTE DONC
INCHANGEE AVEC UNE ESTIMATION A 60 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE DIRECTION DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE : AU
COURS DE PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT
VERS LE SUD PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LA PRESENCE DE HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD DU SYSTEME LIMITE CEPENDANT UNE EVACUATION PLUS
RAPIDE VERS LE SUD. LA REPRESENTATION DE CE FREIN EST PLUS OU MOINS
FORTE ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES EXPLIQUANT UN ACCORD MEDIOCRE EN
TERME DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN TALWEG PROFOND
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT PERMETTRE
UNE EVACUATION RAPIDE DE LORNA VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST. LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS GFS/IFS.

LORNA RESTE EN LIMITE D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE DE SECTEUR NORD
MODERE QUI COMMENCE A AUGMENTER. CETTE LOCALISATION LAISSE A LORNA
UNE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION QUI SEMBLE TROP COURTE POUR LUI
PERMETTRE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. PAR LA SUITE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER SIGNIFICATIVEMENT EN S'ORIENTANT AU
NORD-OUEST. L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO ET UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER EGALEMENT A
AFFAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LA CIRCULATION AU COURS DU WEEK-END. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL.=

>

2019-04-27 18:21

WTIO30 FMEE 271809
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 89.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/05/01 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 97.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

IT'S BEEN ALMOST 18 HOURS THAT THE LORNA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT
EVOLVED. IN INFRARED IMAGERY, LORNA HAS KEPT ITS CENTRAL CLOUD COVER
PATTERN. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WHICH DOES NOT
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY ACCORDING TO METOP-A DATA FROM 1539UTC. SO, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATE AT 60 KT.

NO CHANGE IN DIRECTION IN THE TRACK : OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA
SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK STEERING BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST. THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LIMITS ON A FASTER EVACUATION TO THE SOUTH.
THE REPRESENTATION OF THIS SLOWING IS MORE OR LESS STRONG AMONG THE
DIFFERENT MODELS EXPLAINING A BAD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SPEED OF
MOVEMENT. FROM MONDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN
THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON A GFS/ECMWF MODEL
CONSENSUS.

LORNA REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF A MODERATE NORTHERN SECTOR SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THIS LOCATION LEAVES TO
LORNA A TOO SHORT WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. LORNA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH THE CYCLONE THRESHOLD. THEREAFTER, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. THE ADVECTION
OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF
18S SHOULD ADD TO THE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK. FROM MONDAY, LORNA SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.=

>

2019-04-27 18:03

WTIO20 FMEE 271759
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 89.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/28 AT 06 UTC:
17.1 S / 89.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/28 AT 18 UTC:
19.0 S / 89.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-27 15:04

WTXS32 PGTW 271500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-27 14:32

WTXS32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.4S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.8S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.1S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS ELONGATED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN A 271123Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), SLIGHTLY ABOVE CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATES
THAT ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MODERATE TO
STRONG (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST,
TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTER TAU 12, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASING HOSTILE,
OWING TO HIGH VWS AND COOL SST. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN MORE RAPIDLY. DISSIPATION IS
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 AS TC 25S BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-27 12:42

WTIO31 FMEE 271205 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5 S / 88.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/05/2019 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-27 12:42

WTIO30 FMEE 271205 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 88.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/05/01 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-27 12:25

WTIO31 FMEE 271205
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5 S / 88.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/05/2019 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE N'A PAS
EVOLUE. EN IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE, LE SYSTEME GARDE SA CONFIGURATION A
NEBULOSITE CENTRALE FROIDE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS
0953Z) NE MONTRENT PAS DE CHANGEMENT SIGNIFICATIF DE LA STRUCTURE
INTERNE. L'INTENSITE RESTE DONC INCHANGEE AVEC UNE ESTIMATION A 60
KT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE
LUNDI, UN THALWEG PROFOND DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ARRIVANT PAR LE
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION RAPIDE DE LORNA VERS LE
SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS GFS/CEP.

LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE RESTE BONNE. CEPENDANT, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE SECTEUR NORD RESTE MODERE. APRES UNE BAISSE
AUJOURD'HUI IL DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER SIGNIFICATIVEMENT DEMAIN EN
S'ORIENTANT AU NORD-OUEST. AINSI, CETTE NUIT, LORNA DISPOSE D'UNE
TRES COURTE FENETRE DE CONDITIONS ENCORE FAVORABLES QUI POURRAIENT
LUI PERMETTRE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. L'ARRIVEE
D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD
DE 18S DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER EGALEMENT A AFFAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
LA CIRCULATION AU COURS DU WEEK-END. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, EN
INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL.=

>

2019-04-27 12:25

WTIO30 FMEE 271205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 88.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/05/01 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT EVOLVED. IN INFRARED
IMAGERY, LORNA HAS KEPT ITS CCC PATTERN. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERIES
(SSMIS 0953Z) DON'T SHOW ANY SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. SO, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATE AT 60 KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK
STEERING BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
EAST. FROM MONDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN
THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON A GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS.

THE POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) IS STILL CURRENTLY MODERATE. AFTER A
DECREASE TODAY, THE VWS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW
ORIENTATING NORTWESTERLY. CONSEQUENTLY THIS NIGHT, LORNA SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM A VERY SHORT WINDOW THAT COULD ALLOW IT TO REACH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A
WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD ADD TO THE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. FROM MONDAY, LORNA
SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.=

>

2019-04-27 12:06

WTIO20 FMEE 271202
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 88.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/28 AT 00 UTC:
16.0 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/28 AT 12 UTC:
18.0 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-27 08:47

WTXS32 PGTW 270900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-27 08:36

WTXS32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.4S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.6S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.5S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A
270306Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-
28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TO BE MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AND THERE ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS WHERE THE SYSTEM CAN
INTENSIFY BEFORE HIGH VWS AND COOL SST WILL CAUSE STEADY, FAIRLY
RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT DISSIPATES. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BUT THE TAU 72
SPREAD IS OVER 250 NM. BASED ON THE HIGH SPREAD, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-27 06:09

WTIO31 FMEE 270601 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 88.9 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/05/2019 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 92.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-27 06:09

WTIO30 FMEE 270601 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 88.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/05/01 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 92.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-27 06:07

WTIO31 FMEE 270601
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 88.9 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/05/2019 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 92.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

LORNA A DEVELOPPE UNE CONFIGURATION A NEBULOSITE CENTRALE FROIDE
(CCC) QUI INDIQUE UN ARRET DANS LE DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME. LES
DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES MONTRENT UNE LEGERE BAISSE DANS
L'INTENSITE. TOUTEFOIS, LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT (GMI 0046Z,
SSMIS 0051Z, AMSU 0306Z) MONTRE UNE LEGERE AMELIORATION DE LA
CONFIGURATION INTERNE. L'INTENSITE RESTE DONC INCHANGEE AVEC UNE
ESTIMATION A 60 KT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA DEVRAIT DONC DESCENDRE LE LONG DE
LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE
RENFORCE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, ATTIREE PAR LE THALWEG EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN NOUVEAU THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION
RAPIDE DE LORNA VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. DANS CE CONTEXTE DE
GRANDE ECHELLE COMPLEXE, LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST MOYENNE. A
NOTER QUE LORNA POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT PASSER EN ZONE DE
RESPONSABILITE AUSTRALIENNE, A L'EST DE 90E.

SUR LA PERIODE, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE RESTE FORTE ET
AUGMENTE MEME ENCORE AVEC LA CIRCULATION DE DEUX THALWEGS CONSECUTIFS
DANS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CEPENDANT, LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE
SECTEUR NORD RESTE PRESENT. IL POURRAIT FAIBLIR UN PEU AUJOURD'HUI
ALORS QUE LORNA CIRCULE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
D'ALTITUDE. AINSI, LORNA DISPOSE D'UNE COURTE FENETRE DE CONDITIONS
LEGEREMENT PLUS FAVORABLES QUI POURRAIENT LUI PERMETTRE D'ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE ET MEME SI LORNA POURRAIT
BENEFICIER DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD POUR COMPENSER UN PEU LES
EFFETS DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, CELLE-CI VA
RAPIDEMENT DEVENIR TROP FORTE ET LANCER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA
TEMPETE. L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO ET UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER EGALEMENT A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, EN INTERRAGISSANT AVEC LE JET
SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICAL.=

>

2019-04-27 06:07

WTIO30 FMEE 270601
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 88.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/05/01 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 92.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

LORNA HAS DEVELOPPED A CCC INDICATING A STOP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. THE LAST OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DECREASE
OF THE INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE LAST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES (0046Z GMI,
0051Z SSMIS, 0306Z AMSU) INDICATE A SLIGHTLY IMPROVEMENT OF THE
INTERNAL CONFIGURATION. SO, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATE AT
60 KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD HEAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST, ATTRACTED BY
THE TROUGH. FROM MONDAY, A NEW MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
WITHIN THIS RATHER COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE CONFIGURATION, THE MODEL
DISPERSION IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
LORNA MIGHT TEMPORARILY TRACK OVER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY, EAST OF 90E.

ON THE PERIOD, THE POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG AND IS
EVEN INCREASING AS TWO CONSECUTIVE UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATE ALONG THE
MID-LATITUDES. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STILL
CURRENTLY MODERATE. IT SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT TODAY AS LORNA TRACKS
UNDER THE AXIS OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE. CONSEQUENTLY,
LORNA SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A SHORT WINDOW WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS, THAT COULD ALLOW IT TO REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
FROM TONIGHT, A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS AND EVEN IF AT
FIRST LORNA COULD RESIST THANKS TO ITS SOUTHWARD MOTION, THE UPPER
CONSTRAINT RAPIDLY BECOMES TOO POWERFUL AND SHOULD CAUSE THE
WEAKENING OF THE STORM. THE ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A
WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD ADD TO THIS
WEAKENING TENDENCY. FROM MONDAY, LORNA SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET.=

>

2019-04-27 06:04

WTIO20 FMEE 270600
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/04/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/04/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 88.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/27 AT 18 UTC:
15.8 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/28 AT 06 UTC:
17.7 S / 89.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-27 02:21

WTXS32 PGTW 270300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-27 02:17

WTXS32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.2S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.6S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 89.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND A FORMATIVE EYE THAT INVARIABLY BECAME OBSCURED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 262246Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MITIGATED BY A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN
PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A MODEST
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL
WEAKENING PHASE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-27 00:41

WTIO31 FMEE 270015 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.4 S / 88.8 E
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-27 00:41

WTIO30 FMEE 270015 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 88.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-27 00:26

WTIO31 FMEE 270015
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.4 S / 88.8 E
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE EN LARGE CDO S'EST
MAINTENUE ET A RELATIVEMENT PEU EVOLUE. LES IMAGES MW DE LA PASSE
SSMI DE 2051Z MONTRENT UN CERCLE DE CONVECTION INTERNE EN COURS DE
CONSTITUTION, ENCORE PEU SOLIDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CETTE
AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE N'EST PAS JUGEE SUFFISANTE POUR
REHAUSSER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. L'ANALYSE DVORAK DU CMRS EST EN BON
ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

LES DERNIERS FIX MICRO-ONDES SUGGERENT QUE LORNA A COMMENCE A TOURNER
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN BUTANT SUR LA DORSALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO
QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST PENDANT QU'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
CIRCULE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA
DEVRAIT DONC DESCENDRE LE LONG DE LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE,
ATTIREE PAR LE THALWEG EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD. A PARTIR DE
LUNDI, UN NOUVEAU THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ARRIVANT PAR LE
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION RAPIDE DE LORNA VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. DANS CE CONTEXTE DE GRANDE ECHELLE COMPLEXE, LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES EST MOYENNE.
LORNA POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT PASSER EN ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE
AUSTRALIENNE, A L'EST DE 90E.

SUR LA PERIODE, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE RESTE FORTE ET
AUGMENTE MEME ENCORE AVEC LA CIRCULATION DE DEUX THALWEGS CONSECUTIFS
DANS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CEPENDANT, LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE
SECTEUR NORD RESTE PRESENT. IL POURRAIR FAIBLIR UN PEU AUJOURD'HUI
ALORS QUE LORNA CIRCULE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
D'ALTITUDE. AINSI, LORNA DISPOSE D'UNE COURTE FENETRE DE CONDITIONS
LEGEREMENT PLUS FAVORABLES QUI POURRAIENT LUI PERMETTRE D'ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE ET MEME SI LORNA POURRAIT
BENEFICIER DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD POUR COMPENSER UN PEU LES
EFFETS DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, CELLE-CI VA
RAPIDEMENT DEVENIR TROP FORTE ET LANCER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA
TEMPETE. L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO ET UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER EGALEMENT A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2019-04-27 00:26

WTIO30 FMEE 270015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 88.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE WIDE CDO STRUCTURE MAINTAINED AND DID NOT
CHANGE MUCH. 2051Z SSMI DATA SHOWS THE ONGOING CONSTITUTION OF AN
INTERNAL CONVECTIVE RING, ALTHOUGH WITH A NOT VERY WELL-DEFINED
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE YET. THESE IMPROVEMENTS OF THE INTERNAL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM ARE NOT DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE RSMC DVORAK ANALYSIS IS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
AVAILABLE.

THE LAST MW FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORNA BEGAN TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS INTO A LOW-TO-MID LEVELS RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE EAST, WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS CIRCULATING TO THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD THUS
HEAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, ATTRACTED BY THE
TROUGH. FROM MONDAY, A NEW MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
WITHIN THIS RATHER COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE CONFIGURATION, THE MODEL
DISPERSION IS COLSE TO AVERAGE.
LORNA MIGHT TEMPORARILY TRACK OVER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF
RESPONSABILITY, EAST OF 90E.

ON THE PERIOD, THE POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG AND IS
EVEN INCREASING AS TWO CONSECUTIVE UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATE ALONG THE
MID-LATITUDES. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STILL
CURRENTLY MODERATE. IT SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT TODAY AS LORNA TRACKS
UNDER THE AXIS OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE. CONSEQUENTLY,
LORNA SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A SHORT WINDOW WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS, THAT COULD ALLOW IT TO REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
FROM TONIGHT, A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS AND EVEN IF AT
FIRST LORNA COULD RESIST THANKS TO ITS SOUTHWARD MOTION, THE UPPER
CONSTRAINT RAPIDLY BECOMES TOO POWERFUL AND SHOULD CAUSE THE
WEAKENING OF THE STORM. THE ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A
WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD ADD TO THIS
WEAKENING TENDANCY.=

>

2019-04-27 00:13

WTIO20 FMEE 270008
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/04/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/04/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 88.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER., EXTENDING UP
TO 300NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/27 AT 12 UTC:
15.0 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/28 AT 00 UTC:
17.1 S / 89.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-26 21:14

WTXS32 PGTW 262100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 89.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 89.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.2S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-26 21:05

WTXS32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 89.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 89.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.2S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.8S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.4S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.9S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.1S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.6S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 89.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFIED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED A
FORMATIVE EYE THAT INVARIABLY BECAME OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE FORMATIVE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND SATCON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MITIGATED BY A
STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ALONG TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FOR NOW, ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29C. TC
25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE
STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WILL DIG IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE STR AND REVERSE THE
TRACK TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY, TC LORNA WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU
96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND
272100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-26 18:32

WTIO31 FMEE 261809 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 88.8 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 130


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-26 18:32

WTIO30 FMEE 261809 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 88.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 130


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-26 18:30

WTIO31 FMEE 261809
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 88.8 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 130


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, UNE FORTE POUSSEE CONVECTIVE S'EST
MAINTENUE NON LOIN DU CENTRE. ELLE A FINIT PAR FORMER UN GRAND CDO,
AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX EXTREMEMENT FROIDS. CEPENDANT, LA PASSE
MICRO-ONDES 89GHZ AMSU DE 1533Z A MONTRE UNE BANDE DE CONVECTION
INTENSE MAIS SEULEMENT CONCENTREE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE NE S'AMELIORE DONC PAS. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A
60KT, EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES.

LES DERNIERS FIX MICRO-ONDES SUGGERENT QUE LORNA A COMMENCE A TOURNER
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN BUTANT SUR LA DORSALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO
QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST PENDANT QU'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
CIRCULE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LORNA
DEVRAIT DONC DESCENDRE LE LONG DE LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE,
ATTIREE PAR LE THALWEG EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD. A PARTIR DE
LUNDI, UN NOUVEAU THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ARRIVANT PAR LE
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION RAPIDE DE LORNA VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. DANS CE CONTEXTE DE GRANDE ECHELLE COMPLEXE, LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES EST LEGEREMENT SUPERIEURE A LA MOYENNE.
LORNA POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT PASSER EN ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE
AUSTRALIENNE, A L'EST DE 90E.

SUR LA PERIODE, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE RESTE FORTE ET
AUGMENTE MEME ENCORE AVEC LA CIRCULATION DE DEUX THALWEGS CONSECUTIFS
DANS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CEPENDANT, LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-EST RESTE PRESENT ACTUELLEMENT (24KT SELON LES ANALYSES
CIMSS). IL DEVRAIT FAIBLIR UN PEU DEMAIN ALORS QUE LORNA CIRCULE SOUS
L'AXE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE D'ALTITUDE. AINSI, LORNA
DISPOSE D'UNE COURTE FENETRE DE CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES QUI
POURRAIENT LUI PERMETTRE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
DES DIMANCHE, UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE ET
MEME SI LORNA POURRAIT BENEFICIER DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD POUR
COMPENSER UN PEU LES EFFETS DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE AU DEBUT,
CELLE-CI VA RAPIDEMENT DEVENIR TROP FORTE ET LANCER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE LA TEMPETE. L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO ET UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIENT PARTICIPER EGALEMENT A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2019-04-26 18:30

WTIO30 FMEE 261809
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 88.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 300
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 130


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST MAINTAINED NEAR THE
CENTER. IT EVENTUALLY FORMED A WIDE CDO PATTERN, WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS. HOWEVER, THE 89GHZ AMSU 1533Z MW SWATH SHOWED AN INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BAND BUT ONLY CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
THE INNER STRUCTURE IS THUS NOT IMPROVING. THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 60KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATIONS.

THE LAST MW FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORNA BEGAN TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS INTO A LOW-TO-MID LEVELS RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE EAST, WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS CIRCULATING TO THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD THUS
HEAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, ATTRACTED BY THE
TROUGH. FROM MONDAY, A NEW MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
WITHIN THIS RATHER COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE CONFIGURATION, THE MODEL
DISPERSION IS A LITTLE BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.
LORNA MIGHT TEMPORARILY TRACK OVER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF
RESPONSABILITY, EAST OF 90E.

ON THE PERIOD, THE POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG AND IS
EVEN INCREASING AS TWO CONSECUTIVE UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATE ALONG THE
MID-LATITUDES. HOWEVER, THE NORTH-EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS CURRENTLY
STRONG (24KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSIS). IT SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT
TOMORROW AS LORNA TRACKS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL UPPER
RIDGE. CONSEQUENTLY, LORNA SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A SHORT WINDOW WITH
MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS THAT COULD ALLOW IT TO REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. AS SOON AS SUNDAY, A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR
APPEARS AND EVEN IF AT FIRST LORNA COULD RESIST THANKS TO ITS
SOTHWARD MOTION, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT RAPIDLY BECOMES TOO POWERFUL
AND SHOULD CAUSE THE WEAKENING OF THE STORM. THE ADVECTION OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S
SHOULD ADD TO THIS WEAKENING TENDANCY.=

>

2019-04-26 18:11

WTIO20 FMEE 261803
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 88.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/27 AT 06 UTC:
14.6 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/27 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-26 14:17

WTXS32 PGTW 261500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 88.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 88.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.1S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-26 14:09

WTXS32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 88.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 88.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.1S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.1S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.8S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.5S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 88.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 261006Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED, PRIMARILY, OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THEREFORE, 25S SHOULD INTENSIFY
SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TC 25S SHOULD
STEADILY WEAKEN. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG
VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

2019-04-26 13:02

WTIO31 FMEE 261220 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.7 S / 88.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 200 SO: 390 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

>

2019-04-26 13:02

WTIO30 FMEE 261220 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 88.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 200 SW: 390 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

>

2019-04-26 12:59

WTIO31 FMEE 261220
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.7 S / 88.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 200 SO: 390 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES DE L'APRES-MIDI ONT REVELE QUE L'OEIL DE
MOYENNE TROPO DETECTE CE MATIN S'EST EFFONDRE SOUS L'EFFET PROBABLE
DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENTS DE NORD-EST. EN PARALLELE, LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE S'EST LEGEREMENT DETERIOREE ET NE MONTRE PLUS D'AMELIORATION
COMPARE A IL Y A 24H. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST GARDEE A 60 KT
LEGEREMENT AU-DESSUS DES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

LES FIX MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT QUE LORNA A ACCELERE AUJOURD'HUI VERS LE
SUD-EST. LORNA VA EVOLUER DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT CARACTERISE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A
MOYENNE TROPO SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET D'UNE DORSALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE RENFORA ANT A L'EST. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST
FAVORABLE A LA POURSUITE D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST OU LE
SUD-SUD-EST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE VA FLEURTE DES DEMAIN AVEC LA
LIMITE EST DE NOTRE BASSIN AVEC UNE POSSIBILITE DE CIRCULER
FINALEMENT A L'EST DE 90AOE.

AVEC LES CHANGEMENTS ABRUPTES OBSERVES AUJOURD'HUI DANS LA STRUCTURE
INTERNE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE DEVIENT INCERTAINE. LES CONDITION
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, BIEN QUE NON IDEALE, PEUVENT ENCORE CONDUIRE A UNE
INTENSIFICATION CE SOIR ET DEMAIN ET CELA EST DONC TOUJOURS REFLETE
DANS LA PREVISION. EN EFFET LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT BAISSER QUELQUE
PEU ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME VA TRAVERSER LA DORSALA D'ALTITUDE DEMAIN.
DE PLUS, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SE RENFORCE AU SUD SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DU TALWEG. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SUIT LE CONSENSUS D'INTENSITE
ICNW QU SUIT PLUTOT LES GUIDANCES STATISTICO-DYNAMIQUES ALORS QU'UNE
FORTE DISPERSION EXISTE DANS LES PREVISIONS D'INTENSITE DES MODELES
NUMERIQUES A FINE ECHELLE. D'ICI 24H/30H, L'AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT, L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO ET UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S, VA ENGENDRER UNE TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2019-04-26 12:59

WTIO30 FMEE 261220
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 88.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 200 SW: 390 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

LATEST MW DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON REVEAL THAT THE MID-LEVELS EYE
DETECTED THIS MORNING HAS COLLAPSED, LIKELY DUE TO SOME
NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
DETERIORATE SHOWING NO IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS HOLD AT 60 KT THAT IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS GUIDANCE.

MW FIXES SHOW THAT LORNA HAS ACCELERATED SOUTH-EASTWARDS TODAY. LORNA
SHOULD BE STEERED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY A HIGH TO MID-LEVELS
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A BUILDING LOW TO
MID-LEVELS RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TO SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK. ON THIS TRACK LORNA
SHOULD MOVE VERY NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ... WITH A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FROM TOMORROW AND
BEYOND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF 90E.

WITH THE SUDDEN COLLAPSE OF LORNA'S INNER CORE, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH
NOT PERFECT, COULD LEAD TO SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW AND THIS IS STILL REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. INDEED THE
ONGOING SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE POLEWARDS
OUTFLOW SHOULD ALSO STRENGHEN WITH THE REMOTE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH. THE INTENSIFICATION FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICNW GUIDANCE THAT
LIES CLOSE TO THE STATISTICO-DYNAMICAL MODELS (HUGE SPREAD AMONGST
REGIONAL MODELS INTENSITY FORECAST). AFTER 24/30 HOURS, A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND WITH INCREASING SHEAR, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A
DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S, IS ANTICIPATED.=

>

2019-04-26 12:17

WTIO20 FMEE 261213
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 88.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/27 AT 00 UTC:
14.1 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/27 AT 12 UTC:
15.5 S / 89.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-26 08:01

WTXS32 PGTW 260900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 11.3S 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.2S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-04-26 07:53

WTXS32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 11.3S 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.2S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.7S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.0S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.3S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.6S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 23.2S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 87.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 918 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
260327Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CORE OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND WEAK SPIRAL BANDING.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 260328Z ASCAT-A
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AND SATCON ESTIMATES OF 64-65 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24 THEN
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
25S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS
OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z,
262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(KENNETH) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

2019-04-26 07:01

WTIO31 FMEE 260630 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.5 S / 87.5 E
(ONZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 200 SO: 390 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

>

2019-04-26 07:01

WTIO30 FMEE 260630 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 87.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 200 SW: 390 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

>

2019-04-26 06:58

WTIO31 FMEE 260630
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.5 S / 87.5 E
(ONZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 200 SO: 390 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

LES DONNEES METOP-A ONT ETE PRECIEUSES POUR ESTIMER LA POSITION,
L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DE LORNA. LES DONNEES ASCAT DONNENT DES
VENTS A 50-55 KT SUR UNE LARGE PORTION DU QUADRANT NORD-EST ET
L'IMAGERIE AMSUB MONTRE QU'UN OEIL S'EST FORME EN MOYENNE TROPO. CET
OEIL N'EST PAS ENCORE VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE MAIS LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST AMELIOREE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 24H ET
LA CONFIGURATION EN CDO SEMBLE EVOLUER VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN
BANDE INCURVEE. L'INTENSITE EST MONTEE A 60 KT SUR LA BASE DES
ELEMENTS EXPOSES CI-DESSUS.

LORNA S'EST DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST CETTE NUIT MAIS LES
DERNIERES ANIMATIONS SATELLITES SUGGERENT QU'UN VIRAGE PLUS SUD EST
DEJA EN COURS. LORNA VA EVOLUER DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT CARACTERISE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A
MOYENNE TROPO SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET D'UNE DORSALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE RENFORA ANT A L'EST. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST
FAVORABLE A LA POURSUITE D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST OU LE
SUD-SUD-EST.

LORNA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN CYCLONE TROPICAL PLUS TARD AUJOURD'HUI OU CE
SOIR DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT CARACTERISE PAR UNE EXCELLENTE
ALIMENTATION EQUATORIALE, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE SUD ET EN
AMELIORATION COTE EST. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SUIT LE CONSENSUS
D'INTENSITE ICNW ET EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES
STATISTICO-DYNAMIQUES PREVOYANT UN SYSTEME PLUS FAIBLE ET LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES A FINE ECHELLE PLUS AGRESSIFS. A NOTER QUE LES GUIDANCES
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE SUGGERENT QUE L'INTENSIFICATION A COURT
TERME POURRAIT ETRE PLUS IMPORTANTE QU'ENVISAGE. D'ICI 24H/30H,
L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT, L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO
ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S, VA ENGENDRER UNE
TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2019-04-26 06:58

WTIO30 FMEE 260630
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 87.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 200 SW: 390 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

THE METOP-A DATA WAS USEFUL THIS MORNING TO ASSESS BOTH POSITION,
STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE OF LORNA. THE ASCAT DATA SHOW 50-55 KT OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND AMSUB IMAGERY REVEAL
THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED IN THE MID-LEVELS BUT HAS STILL NOT POP UP ON
CLASSICAL IMAGERY. HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE CDO PATTERN THAT TEND TO SHIFT
TOWARDS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. BASED ON ALL ABOVE, THE INTENSITY IS
RAISED AT 60 KT.

LORNA HAS TRACKED SLOWLY EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS OVER NIGHT BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THAT A MORE POLEWARDS TRACK HAS BEGUN.
LORNA SHOULD BE STEERED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY A HIGH TO
MID-LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVELS RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TO SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK.

LORNA SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FAVORED
BY THE EXCELLENT MONSOON FEEDING, SOME GOOD POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE THAT IS IMPROVING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE FOLLOWS THE ICNW GUIDANCE THAT LIES IN BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH STATISTIC AND DYNAMICS PARAMETERS ON THE LOW SIDE AND
THE MORE AGRESSIVE NUMERICALS MODELS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGEST THAT THE NEAR TERM
INTENSIFICATION COULD BE STRONGER. AFTER 24/30 HOURS, A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND WITH INCREASING SHEAR, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A
DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S, IS ANTICIPATED.=

>

2019-04-26 06:18

WTIO20 FMEE 260618
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/04/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/04/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 87.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 18 UTC:
13.2 S / 88.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/27 AT 06 UTC:
14.6 S / 88.7 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-26 00:51

WTIO31 FMEE 260032 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.6 S / 87.0 E
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 460
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 190 SO: 150 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

>

2019-04-26 00:51

WTIO30 FMEE 260032 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 87.0 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 460
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

>

2019-04-26 00:48

WTIO31 FMEE 260032
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.6 S / 87.0 E
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 460
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 190 SO: 150 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/05/2019 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EN CDO SE MAINTIENT AVEC DES SOMMETS TOUJOURS TRES FROIDS.
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE D'EST MODERE, LE CENTRE DE LORNA SE
SITUE PLUTOT LE SECTEUR SUD-EST DU CDO. LES DIFFERENTES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE
DE 55KT.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE LORNA RESTE ENCORE DELICATE AVEC DES
LES MODELES NUMERIQUES PEU EN ACCORD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS PREVOIT UN
DEPLACEMENT DE LORNA ASSEZ LENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST PUIS
SUD-SUD-EST. LORNA VA ENSUITE EVOLUER DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DANS
UN ENVIRONNEMENT CARACTERISE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A
MOYENNE TROPO SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET D'UNE DORSALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE RENFORA ANT A L'EST. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST
FAVORABLE A LA POURSUITE D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST QUI
POURRAIT PRENDRE UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS SUD A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

UNE INTENSIFICATION PROGRESSIVE ET LENTE CONTINUE D'ETRE FAVORISEE
PAR L'EXCELLENTE ALIMENTATION EQUATORIALE ET LA BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
SUD MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE SUR LA ZONE. CE CISAILLEMENT VA
RESTER PRESENT SUR TOUTE LA PERIODE ET DEFINIR UN FACTEUR LIMITANT A
L'INTENSIFICATION. LA FAIBLESSE DU CISAILLEMENT SUR UNE ZONE
RESTREINTE POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE PLAGE D'INTENSIFICATION DE LORNA
PLUS MARQUE EN FONCTION DU DECALAGE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE SUIT LE CONSENSUS D'INTENSITE ICNW ET EST UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES GUIDANCES STATISTICO-DYNAMIQUES PREVOYANT UN SYSTEME PLUS
FAIBLE ET LES MODELES NUMERIQUES A FINE ECHELLE PLUS AGRESSIFS. D'ICI
24H/36H, L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT, L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC DE
MOYENNE TROPO ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 18S, VA
ENGENDRER UNE TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2019-04-26 00:48

WTIO30 FMEE 260032
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 87.0 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 460
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/05/01 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

NO CHANGE IN THE LAST 6 HOURS: THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. IN A MODERATE EASTERN SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE
CENTRE OF LORNA IS LOCATED RATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE CDO.
THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO
ESTIMATE WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 55KT.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LORNA'S TRACK PREDICTION IS STILL SIGNIFICANT IN
NUMERICAL MODELS. THE RSMC FORECAST FORESEES A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT
OF LORNA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. LORNA SHOULD
BE STEERED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY A HIGH TO MID-LEVELS TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A BUILDING LOW TO
MID-LEVELS RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK THAT COULD BEND MORE SOUTHWARDS AFTER DAY 2.

A PROGRESSIVE AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED BY THE
EXCELLENT MONSOON FEEDING AND SOME GOOD POLEWARDS UPPER DIVERGENCE
DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR IN THE AREA. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. THE
WEAKNESS OF THE SHEAR OVER A RESTRICTED AREA COULD ALLOW A MORE
MARKED LORNA INTENSIFICATION RANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK SHIFT. THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE FOLLOWS THE ICNW GUIDANCE THAT LIES IN BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH STATISTIC AND DYNAMICS PARAMETERS ON THE LOW SIDE AND
THE MORE AGRESSIVE NUMERICALS MODELS. AFTER 24/30 HOURS, A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND WITH INCREASING SHEAR, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A
DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S, IS ANTICIPATED.=

>

2019-04-26 00:10

WTIO20 FMEE 260011
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/04/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/04/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 87.0 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 12 UTC:
12.9 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/27 AT 00 UTC:
14.6 S / 88.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-25 19:17

WTIO31 FMEE 251902 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.0 S / 86.2 E
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 87.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

>

2019-04-25 19:17

WTIO30 FMEE 251902 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 86.2 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 87.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

>

2019-04-25 19:15

WTIO31 FMEE 251902
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/15/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.0 S / 86.2 E
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 87.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 30/04/2019 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO DE
LORNA EST RESTE ASSEZ CONSTANTE AVEC DES SOMMETS TOUJOURS TRES
FROIDS. LES IMAGES METOP-B DE 1554 UTC MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE DE
BASSES COUCHES ASSEZ LARGE MAIS BIEN PRESENTE. LA PERSISTANCE EN CDO
ET SON EXTENSION, MAIS AVEC UN CI INFERIEUR A 3.5 IL Y A 12 HEURES,
JUSTIFIE UNE ANALYSE A 3.5+, VOIRE 4.0-. LORNA ATTEINT DONC LE SEUIL
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE A 18UTC.

L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE LORNA RESTE ENCORE
MARQUEE DANS LES MODELES NUMERIQUES. LA PREVISION DU CMRS PREVOIT UN
DEPLACEMENT DE LORNA ASSEZ LENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST PUIS
SUD-SUD-EST. LORNA VA ENSUITE EVOLUER DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DANS
UN ENVIRONNEMENT CARACTERISE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A
MOYENNE TROPO SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET D'UNE DORSALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE RENFORA ANT A L'EST. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST
FAVORABLE A LA POURSUITE D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST QUI
POURRAIT PRENDRE UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS SUD AU-DELA DE J+2.

L'EXCELLENTE ALIMENTATION EQUATORIALE ET DE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
SUD PRESENTE ACTUELLEMENT FAVORISE UNE INTENSIFICATION DE LORNA
MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE. CE CISAILLEMENT VA RESTER PRESENT SUR
TOUTE LA PERIODE ET DEFINIR UN FACTEUR LIMITANT A L'INTENSIFICATION.
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SUIT LE CONSENSUS D'INTENSITE ICNW ET EST UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES STATISTICO-DYNAMIQUES PREVOYANT UN
SYSTEME PLUS FAIBLE ET LES MODELES NUMERIQUES A FINE ECHELLE PLUS
AGRESSIFS. D'ICI 24/30H, L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT, L'ARRIVEE
D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU SUD
DE 18S, VA ENGENDRER UNE TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2019-04-25 19:15

WTIO30 FMEE 251902
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/15/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 86.2 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 87.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN OF LORNA HAS REMAINED
FAIRLY CONSTANT WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE 1554UTC METOP-B DATA
SHOW A FAIRLY WIDE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE PERSISTENCE IN CDO
PATTERN AND ITS EXTENSION BUT WITH A CI<3.5 12 HOURS AGO, JUSTIFIES
AN ANALYSIS AT 3.5+, EVEN 4.0-. LORNA THUS REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM AT 18UTC.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LORNA'S TRACK PREDICTION IS STILL SIGNIFICANT IN
NUMERICAL MODELS. THE RSMC FORECAST FORESEES A RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT
OF LORNA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. LORNA SHOULD
BE STEERED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY A HIGH TO MID-LEVELS TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A BUILDING LOW TO
MID-LEVELS RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK THAT COULD BEND MORE SOUTHWARDS AFTER DAY 2.

THE EXCELLENT MONSOON FEEDING AND SOME GOOD POLEWARDS UPPER
DIVERGENCE CURRENTLY PRESENT FAVOURS AN INTENSIFICATION OF LORNA
DESPITE MODERATE WIND-SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE FOLLOWS THE ICNW GUIDANCE THAT LIES IN BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH STATISTIC AND DYNAMICS PARAMETERS ON THE LOW SIDE AND
THE MORE AGRESSIVE NUMERICALS MODELS. AFTER 24/30 HOURS, A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND WITH INCREASING SHEAR, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A
DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S, IS ANTICIPATED.=

>

2019-04-25 18:22

WTIO20 FMEE 251823
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 86.2 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 265 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 335 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 06 UTC:
12.2 S / 87.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 18 UTC:
13.8 S / 88.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-25 12:58

WTIO31 FMEE 251224 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.7 S / 85.9 E
(DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 69 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 220


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2019-04-25 12:58

WTIO30 FMEE 251224 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 85.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 69 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 220


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2019-04-25 12:56

WTIO31 FMEE 251224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.7 S / 85.9 E
(DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 69 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 220


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 30/04/2019 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE LORNA EST ENTRAIN DE MONTRER QUELQUES
SIGNES D'AMELIORATION AVEC UN CDO PLUS SYMETRIQUE, EN EXPENSION ET
TOUJOURS ASSOCIE A DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS. LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT UNE AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE DE BASSES
COUCHES. TOUTEFOIS LA PLUPART DES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
D'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE ONT PEU CHANGE ET L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A
45 KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE LORNA EST LENT ET LES DERNIERS FIXS SUGGERENT UN
MOUVEMENT A NOUVEAU PLUS SUD-EST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE IRREGULIERE
SUIVIE DEPUIS HIER, UN NOUVEAU DEPLACEMENT PLUS EST N'EST PAS
IMPOSSIBLE CETTE NUIT. LORNA VA EVOLUER DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DANS
UN ENVIRONNEMENT CARACTERISE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A
MOYENNE TROPO SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET D'UNE DORSALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE RENFORA ANT A L'EST. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST
FAVORABLE A LA POURSUITE D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST QUI
POURRAIT PRENDRE UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS SUD AU-DELA DE J+2. IL SUBSISTE
DES DIFFERENCES LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PARMI LES GUIDANCES,
REFLETANT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

AUJOURD'HUI LORNA DEVRAIT PROFITER DE L'EXCELLENTE ALIMENTATION
EQUATORIALE ET DE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE SUD. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT RESTER AU MOINS FAIBLE A MODERE SUR TOUTE LA PERIODE ET
RESTER UN FACTEUR LIMITANT A L'INTENSIFICATION. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE SUIT LE CONSENSUS D'INTENSITE ICNW ET EST UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES GUIDANCES STATIOSTICO-DYNAMIQUES PREVOYANT UN SYSTEME PLUS
FAIBLE ET LES MODELES REGIONAUX PLUS AGRESSIFS. D'ICI 24/30H, UNE
AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT, L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO ET
UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE FRANCHE AU SUD DE 18S, VA ENGENDRER
UNE TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2019-04-25 12:56

WTIO30 FMEE 251224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 85.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 69 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 220


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

LORNA'S CLOUD PATTERN SHOWN SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MORE SYMMETRICAL AND EXPANDING CDO THAT IS STILL ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. MW IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO DEPICTED AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. HOWEVER MOST OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FOR THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND
THE INTENSITY IS HOLD AT 45 KT.

LORNA IS MOVING SLOWLY AND THE LATEST FIX SUGGEST THAT A
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK WAS FOLLOWED RECENTLY. AS THE TRACK OF LORNA
WAS IRREGULAR OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AN EASTWARDS SHIFT IS STILL
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. LORNA SHOULD BE STEERED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BY A HIGH TO MID-LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVELS RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK THAT COULD BEND MORE
SOUTHWARDS AFTER DAY 2. SOME ALONG TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE STILL NOTED
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REFLECTING SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORWARD SPEED
OF LORNA.

TODAY LORNA BENEFIT FROM THE EXCELLENT MONSOON FEEDING AND SOME GOOD
POLEWARDS UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST
LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR.
THE INTENSIFICATION RATE FOLLOWS THE ICNW GUIDANCE THAT LIES IN
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL-STAT MODELS ON THE LOW SIDE AND THE MORE
AGRESSIVE REGIONAL MODELS. AFTER 24/30 HOURS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND WITH INCREASING SHEAR, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A DECREASING
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S, IS ANTICIPATED.=

>

2019-04-25 12:15

WTIO20 FMEE 251214
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 85.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 265 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 335 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 00 UTC:
11.8 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 12 UTC:
13.3 S / 87.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-25 06:59

WTIO31 FMEE 250627 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.4 S / 85.6 E
(DIX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 70 SO: 190 NO: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 220


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 90.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

>

2019-04-25 06:59

WTIO30 FMEE 250627 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 85.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 70 SW: 190 NW: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 220


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 90.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

>

2019-04-25 06:57

WTIO31 FMEE 250627
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.4 S / 85.6 E
(DIX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 70 SO: 190 NO: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 220


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 90.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 30/04/2019 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0


LA TEMPETE LORNA S'EST RENFORCEE AU COURS DE LA NUIT MALGRE UN
CISAILLEMENT A 20/25 KT DE SECTEUR EST. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST
UN CDO ASSOCIE A DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX TRES FROIDS. UNE PASS ASCAT A
0320Z DONNE DES VENTS A 40 KT ET UNE PASS SMAP A 0010Z DONNE 45 KT.
LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES SONT A 3.0 (FMEE ET
SAB). LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES SEMBLENT TROP ELEVEES AVEC 4.0 POUR
L'ADT ET ENVIRON 60 KT 1-MIN POUR LE SATCON. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST
MISE A 45 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES SUBJECTIVES ET LA PASS SMAP.

LORNA S'EST DEPLACEE VERS L'EST ET CELA EST PROBABLEMENT DUE AU
DECALAGE VERS L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. ON NE PEUT
EXCLURE UNE INFLUENCE DU MINIMUM POSITIONNE A L'EST-SUD-EST. LA
PREVISION A COURTE ECHEANCE TIEND COMPTE DE CETTE POSSIBLE
INTERACTION ET A DONC ETE DECALEE VERS L'EST. ALORS QUE LE MINIMUM
DEVRAIT SE FONDRE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION DE LORNA, UNE TRAJECTOIRE
PLUS MERIDIENNE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE ENSUITE. LA CONFIGURATION DE GRANDE
ECHELLE CONTINUE D'ETRE PILOTER SUR LA PERIODE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UN
TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. IL
SUBSISTE DES DIFFERENCES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT PARMI LES
GUIDANCES.

AUJOURD'HUI LORNA DEVRAIT PROFITER DE L'EXCELLENTE ALIMENTATION
EQUATORIALE ET DE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE SUD, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT
EN BAISSE. AINSI, DANS DES CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A
VENDREDI, UNE POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION RESTE DE MISE. AU-DELA,
UNE AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT, L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPO ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE FRANCHE AU SUD DE 18S, VA
ENGENDRER UNE TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2019-04-25 06:57

WTIO30 FMEE 250627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 85.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 70 SW: 190 NW: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 220


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 90.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

LORNA HAS STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT DESPITE FACING SOME 20/25 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A CDO ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0320Z SHOW 40 KT WINDS AND A PREVIOUS
SMAP PASS AT 0010Z SHOW 45 KT WINDS. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE AT 3.0 (FMEE AND SAB). OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO
HIGH AT 4.0 (ADT) AND AROUND 60 KT 1-MIN FOR SATCON. THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES AND THE SMAP PASS.


LORNA HAST TRACKED EASTWARDS AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WESTWARDS
SHIFT OF THE NEAR EQYATORIAL RIDGE AND POTENTIALLY WITH SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LOCATED EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS. THIS EFFECT
HAS BEEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN EASTWARDS SHIFT OF THE TRACK. AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION DURING THAT TIME, A MORE POLEWARDS
TRACK SHOULD RESUME AFTER THAT. THE LARGE-SCALE CONFIGURATION WITH A
HIGH TO MID UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF LORNA, SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER A GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK OVER THE WHOLE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME ALONG TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE STILL NOTED AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE REFLECTING SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF
LORNA.

TODAY LORNA BENEFIT FROM THE EXCELLENT MONSOON FEEDING AND SOME GOOD
POLEWARDS UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A DECREASING SHEAR. THUS WITHIN THIS
RATHER MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT, A DEEPENING IS STILL FORECAST. THE
AVAILABLE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCES ARE STILL ALL SUGGESTING AN
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24/30 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND WITH INCREASING SHEAR, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A
DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S.=

>

2019-04-25 06:21

WTIO20 FMEE 250617
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/04/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 85.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 265 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 335 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 18 UTC:
11.2 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 06 UTC:
12.7 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-25 01:45

WTIO31 FMEE 250122 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.6 S / 85.2 E
(DIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SO: NO: 350
34 KT NE: 190 SE: SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 90.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 90.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2019-04-25 01:45

WTIO30 FMEE 250122 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 85.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SW: NW: 350
34 KT NE: 190 SE: SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 90.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 90.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2019-04-25 01:43

WTIO31 FMEE 250122
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.6 S / 85.2 E
(DIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SO: NO: 350
34 KT NE: 190 SE: SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 90.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 90.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 30/04/2019 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DE LORNA S'EST
AMELIOREE, AVEC UNE POUSSEE CONVECTIVE MARQUEE PAR DES SOMMETS TRES
FROIDS (-90C). LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS 2142Z) MONTRENT
EGALEMENT CETTE AMELIORATION AVEC PLUS DE COURBURES DANS LES BANDES
CONVECTIVES.

LORNA A APPAREMENT REPRIS SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. CETTE TENDANCE DEVRAIT S'AFFIRMER NOTAMMENT SI IL
S'INTENSIFIE. AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, CETTE DORSALE SE DECALE
VERS L'OUEST ALORS QU'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
S'INSTALLE GRADUELLEMENT AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIGURATION
DE GRANDE ECHELLE CONTINUE DE PILOTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS
LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. LES MODELES SONT ASSEZ BON
ACCORD SUR CE CAP MAIS UNE INCERTITUDE ASSEZ IMPORTANTE SUBSISTE SUR
LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LORNA POURRAIT EGALEMENT
INTERAGIR AVEC LE MINIMUM PLUS A L'EST, DECALANT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
LORNA PLUS A L'EST.

AUJOURD'HUI LORNA DEVRAIT PROFITER DE L'EXCELLENTE ALIMENTATION
EQUATORIALE ET DE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN
BAISSE. AINSI, DANS DES CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A VENDREDI,
UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION EST PROBABLE. LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT TOUJOURS UNE
INTENSIFICATION NOTAMMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. NEANMOINS,
LA PRESENCE DU FAIBLE SYSTEME JUSTE A L'EST, SEMBLE PERTURBE LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES QUI ONT DU MAL A CHOISIR UN SCENARIO CLAIR.

A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST SE RENFORCE
A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND THALWEG, ET DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANC A CE MOMENT LA. LA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION POURRAIT ALORS COMMENCER.=

>

2019-04-25 01:43

WTIO30 FMEE 250122
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 85.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SW: NW: 350
34 KT NE: 190 SE: SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 90.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 90.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/30 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, LORNA CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED WITH A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURST WITH VERY COLD TOPS (-90C). MICROWXAVE IMAGERY
(SSMIS 2142Z) CONFIRM THAT IMPROVEMENT WITH MORE CURVATURE IN
CONVECTIVE BANDS.

LORNA APPARENTLY RESUMED ITS MOVEMENT SOUTH-EASTWARD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS TREND
SHOULD BE MAITAINED ESPECIALLY IF IT IS INTENSIFYING. OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS, THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARDS AND A HIGH
TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
SOUTH-WEST. THIS LARGE-SCALE CONFIGURATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A
GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST BUT A RATHER HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE SPEED OF
LORNA. LORNA MAY ALSO INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN LOW. IN THIS CASE, AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK COULD BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT
FORECASTS.

TODAY LORNA SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THE EXCELLENT MONSOON FEEDING AND THE
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A DECREASING SHEAR. THUSN WITHIN THIS
RATHER MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT, A DEEPENING IS STILL FORECAST. THE
AVAILABLE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCES ARE STILL ALL SUGGESTING AN
INTENSIFICATION ESPECIALLY IN THE NEXT HOURS. BUT THE FORECAST IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE NUMERICAL MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES TO
HANDLE BOTH SYSTEMS AND THEREFORE THEY DO NOT GIVE A CLEAR SCENARIO.

FROM SATURDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE
STORM. THE POST TROPICAL PHASE COULD THEN START.=

>

2019-04-25 00:33

WTIO20 FMEE 250035
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/04/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 85.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 12 UTC:
11.3 S / 85.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 00 UTC:
12.2 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-24 21:03

WTIO31 FMEE 242002 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.4 S / 84.6 E
(DIX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SO: NO: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

>

2019-04-24 21:03

WTIO30 FMEE 242002 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 84.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SW: NW: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

>

2019-04-24 21:00

WTIO31 FMEE 242002
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.4 S / 84.6 E
(DIX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SO: NO: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 29/04/2019 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LORNA A CONTINUE DE PRESENTER UNE
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DESORGANISEE AVEC DES BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE SE SITUE
SURTOUT DANS LE DEMI CERCLE SUD-OUEST EN RAISON D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-EST (ANALYSE AUTOUR DE 25KT D'APRES LE CIMSS). LES DERNIERES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT CE MANQUE DE STRUCTURE DEFINI NOTAMMENT
EN 89GHZ. L'INTENSITE A ETE ABAISSE A 35KT GRACE AUX DONNEES ASCAT DE
1615Z. LE COUP DE VENT N'EST PRESENT QUE DANS L'ALIMENTATION DE
MOUSSON LOIN DU CENTRE.

LORNA A TEMPORAIREMENT ARRETE SON LENT DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST,
PEUT ETRE EN RAISON D'UN CONFLIT DE FLUX DIRECTEUR EN BASSES COUCHES.
CELA POURRAIT ETRE LIE AU FAIBLE SYSTEME PRESENT PLUS A L'EST EN ZONE
AUSTRALIENNE.
NEANMOINS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE SA TRAJECTOIRE, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, PARTICULIEREMENT SI IL S'INTENSIFIE. AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS, CETTE DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST ALORS QU'UN
TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE S'INSTALLE GRADUELLEMENT AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIGURATION DE GRANDE ECHELLE CONTINUE
DE PILOTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS. LES MODELES SONT ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE CAP MAIS
UNE INCERTITUDE ASSEZ IMPORTANTE SUBSISTE SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LORNA POURRAIT EGALEMENT INTERAGIR AVEC LE
MINIMUM PLUS A L'EST, DECALANT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE LORNA PLUS A L'EST.

LORNA NE S'INTENSIFIE PAS POUR L'INSTANT MALGRE UNE EXCELLENTE
ALIMENTATION EQUATORIALE ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE. LE FORT
CISAILLEMENT ET L'ASYMETRIE DE CONVERGENCE EN SURFACE EN SONT
PROBABLEMENT RESPONSABLES. CETTE NUIT ET DEMAIN, LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT BAISSER. AINSI, DANS DES CONDITIONS PLUS
FAVORABLES JUSQU'A VENDREDI, UNE INTENSIFICATION EST PROBABLE. LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT TOUJOURS UNE
INTENSIFICATION NOTAMMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. NEANMOINS,
LA PRESENCE DU FAIBLE SYSTEME JUSTE A L'EST, SEMBLE PERTURBE LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES QUI ONT DU MAL A CHOISIR UN SCENARIO CLAIR.

A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST SE RENFORCE
A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND THALWEG, ET DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANC A CE MOMENT LA. LA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION POURRAIT ALORS COMMENCER.=

>

2019-04-24 21:00

WTIO30 FMEE 242002
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 84.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SW: NW: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, LORNA CONTINUE TO SOW A DISORGANIZED CLOUD
PATTERN, WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS CLOSE TO THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION
IS MAINLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO A
NORTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT (25KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS). LAST MICROWAVE
CONFIRM THIS LACK OF A WELL DEFINED STRUCTURE ESPECIALLY IN 89GHZ.
INTENSITY WAS DOWNGRADED TO 35KT DUE TO THE 1615Z ASCAT SWATH. GALE
FORCE ARE ONLY LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE MONSOON FEEDING.

LORNA TEMPORARILY STOPPED ITS SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTH-EASTWARD, MAYBE DUE
TO A CONFLICT OF LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. IT COULD ALSO BE RELATED TO
THE OTHER WEAK SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE AUSTRALIAN REGION.

HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ESPECIALLY
WHEN INTENSIFYING. OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARDS AND A HIGH TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS LARGE-SCALE
CONFIGURATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST BUT A
RATHER HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE SPEED OF LORNA. LORNA MAY ALSO
INTERACT THE THE EASTERN LOW. IN THIS CASE, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
TRACK COULD BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT FORECASTS.

LORNA DID NOT INTENSIFY DESPITE THE EXCELLENT MONSOON FEEDING AND THE
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE/ THE STRONG SHEAR ET THE ASYMMETRY I THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE PROBABLY AT STAKE. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THANKS
TO A DECREASING SHEAR, WITHIN A RATHER MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT A
DEEPENING IS STILL FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY FORECAST
GUIDANCES ARE STILL ALL SUGGESTING AN INTENSIFICATION ESPECIALLY IN
THE NEXT HOURS. BUT THE FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES TO HANDLE BOTH SYSTEMS AND
THEREFORE THEY DO NOT GIVE A CLEAR SCENARIO.

FROM SATURDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE
STORM. THE POST TROPICAL PHASE COULD THEN START.=

>

2019-04-24 18:43

WTIO20 FMEE 241844
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 84.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
11.1 S / 85.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 18 UTC:
11.8 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-24 12:45

WTIO31 FMEE 241219 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.7 S / 84.6 E
(DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 160 SO: 120 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2019-04-24 12:45

WTIO30 FMEE 241219 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 84.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 160 SW: 120 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2019-04-24 12:30

WTIO31 FMEE 241219
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.7 S / 84.6 E
(DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 160 SO: 120 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2019 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 29/04/2019 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A PEINE A SE MAINTENIR
PRES DU CENTRE DE LORNA. LA PRESENCE D'UN SECOND MINIMUM AU SEIN DU
THALWEG PROCHE-EQUATORIAL A L'EST PENALISE LE DEVELOPPEMENT DE LORNA
EN CAPTANT UNE PARTIE DE LA CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE FOURNIE PAR LE
FLUX DE MOUSSON. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES 36GHZ DE LA PASSE AMSR2 DE
0808Z MONTRENT ENCORE UNE STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES SYMETRIQUE MAIS
QUI RESTE FRAGILE, ET AUCUNE STRUCTURE BIEN DEFINIE EN IMAGERIE
89GHZ.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, CETTE DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST ALORS
QU'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE S'INSTALLE GRADUELLEMENT
AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIGURATION DE GRANDE ECHELLE
CONTINUE DE PILOTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD-EST AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS. LES MODELES SONT ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE CAP
MAIS UNE INCERTITUDE ASSEZ IMPORTANTE SUBSISTE SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LORNA POURRAIT EGALEMENT INTERAGIR AVEC UN
SYSTEME PLUS FAIBLE SE DEVELOPPANT PLUS A L'EST, EN ZONE DE
RESPONSABILITE AUSTRALIENNE. CELA POURRAIT DECALER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
LORNA PLUS A L'EST.

LORNA MARQUE ACTUELLEMENT UNE PAUSE DANS SA PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
DUE A LA BAISSE DE CONVERGENCE OCCASIONNEE PAR LE SECOND MINIMUM.
CEPENDANT, EN ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT RESTE FAIBLE
A MODERE ET ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TA
POLAIRE. AINSI, DANS CES CONDITIONS PLUTOT FAVORABLES JUSQU'A
VENDREDI, LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT
TOUJOURS UNE INTENSIFICATION LENTE, EN REVOYANT CEPENDANT LEGEREMENT
A LA BAISSE L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE ENVISAGEE. ENSUITE, A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-EST SE RENFORCE. LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DE LORNA POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE RESISTER A
CETTE CONTRAINTE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, CE QUI REND INCERTAIN LE
TIMING EXACT DU DEBUT D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. SAMEDI, LE VENT D'ALTITUDE
REVIENT AU NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE EN
FAIBLISSANT DE FACON TRES TEMPORAIRE,CE QUI CONDUIT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME PLUS FRANC.=

>

2019-04-24 12:30

WTIO30 FMEE 241219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 84.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 160 SW: 120 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION DID NOT MANAGE TO MAINTAIN NEAR
LORNA'S CENTER. THE PRESENCE OF AN OTHER MINIMUM WITHIN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH IN THE EAST IS PENALIZING LORNA'S DEVELOPMENT BY
DIVERTING A PART OF THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE FUELED BY THE MONSOON
FLOW. THE 36GHZ MW IMAGES OF THE 0808Z AMSR2 SWATH SHOW A SYMMETRICAL
BUT SILL FRAGILE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, WITH NO CLEAR STRUCTURE ON THE
89GHZ IMAGERY.

THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARDS AND A HIGH TO
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
SOUTH-WEST. THIS LARGE-SCALE CONFIGURATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A
GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST BUT A RATHER HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE SPEED OF
LORNA. LORNA MAY ALSO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LOCATED FURTHER
EAST, WITHIN THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSABILITY. IN THIS CASE, AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK COULD BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT
FORECASTS.

LORNA'S INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY STOPPED DUE TO THE DECREASE IN
SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY THE SECOND LOW. HOWEVER, IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE AND
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS, WITHIN THESE
RATHER CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY, THE AVAILABLE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCES ARE STILL ALL SUGGESTING A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX INTENSITY. THEN, FROM
FRIDAY EVENING, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS. LORNA'S SPEED
COULD ALLOW IT TO RESIST TO THIS UPPER CONSTRAINT AT FIRST, MAKING
YJE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING PHASE RATHER UNCERTAIN.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER WINDS ARE BACKING NORTH-WESTERLY AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WITH ONLY A VERY TEMPORARY WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE STORM.=

>

2019-04-24 12:10

WTIO20 FMEE 241213
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 84.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
11.3 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 12 UTC:
12.0 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-24 06:47

WTIO31 FMEE 240623 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.3 S / 84.2 E
(DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 160 SO: 120 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

>

2019-04-24 06:47

WTIO30 FMEE 240623 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 84.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 160 SW: 120 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

>

2019-04-24 06:44

WTIO31 FMEE 240623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.3 S / 84.2 E
(DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 160 SO: 120 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2019 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/04/2019 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A NETTEMENT DIMINUE
SUR LE CENTRE DE LORNA. LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION ETAIT MEME QUASIMENT
EXPOSE SUR LES DERNIERS IMAGES VISIBLES DISPONIBLES. LE SYSTEME A
DONC MARQUE UNE PAUSE DANS SON INTENSIFICATION SELON LES ESTIMATIONS
DVORAK DU CMRS, EN ACCORD AVEC LES AUTRES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES. CEPENDANT, UNE NOUVELLE POUSSEE DE CONVECTION VIENT DE
SE DECLENCHER SUR LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION, CE QUI DEVRAIT PERMETTRE
DE RELANCER L'INTENSIFICATION DE LA TEMPETE.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, CETTE DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST ALORS
QU'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE S'INSTALLE GRADUELLEMENT
AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIGURATION CONTINUE DE PILOTER UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS.
LES MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE CAP MAIS UNE INCERTITUDE ASSEZ
IMPORTANTE SUBSISTE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LORNA
POURRAIT EGALEMENT INTERAGIR AVEC UN SYSTEME SE DEVELOPPANT PLUS A
L'EST, EN ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE AUSTRALIENNE. DANS CE CAS, UN
REAJUSTEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST POURRAIT ETRE ENVISAGE DANS
LES PROCHAINS BULLETINS.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE INTENSIFICATION CLIMATOLOGIQUE, VOIRE
MEME LEGEREMENT PLUS LENTE. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT RESTE
FAIBLE A MODERA , AVEC LE MAINTIEN UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE CA TA POLAIRE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST ENCORE
ENVISAGE D'ICI CE WEEK-END. ENSUITE, A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER A L'AVANT
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME. LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DE LORNA POURRAIT
LUI PERMETTRE DE RESISTER A CETTE CONTRAINTE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS,
CE QUI REND INCERTAIN LE TIMING EXACT DU DEBUT D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2019-04-24 06:44

WTIO30 FMEE 240623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 84.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 160 SW: 120 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/28 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY STALLED NEAR THE CENTER
OF LORNA. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS ALMOST EXPOSED ON THE LAST VIS
IMAGES AVAILABLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION HAS COME
TO A TEMPORARY STOP ACCORDING TO THE CMRS DVORAK ESTIMATES, IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, A
NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS JUST TRIGGERED ON THE CIRCULATION CENTER,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A RESUMPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION PHASE.

THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARDS AND A HIGH TO
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
SOUTH-WEST. THIS LARGE-SCALE CONFIGURATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A
GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
DIRECTION FORECAST IS SHARED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS BUT A
RATHER HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE SPEED OF LORNA. LORNA MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LOCATED FURTHER EAST, WITHIN THE
AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSABILITY. IN THIS CASE, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE TRACK COULD BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT FORECASTS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, AT A PACE SLIGHLTY SLOWER THAN NORMAL. THE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE WITH A GOOD POLERWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED BY THIS WEEK-END. THEN, FROM SATURDAY, THE NORTHWESTERN
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH, LEADING TO THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORM. LORNA'S SPEED
COULD ALLOW IT TO RESIST TO THIS UPPER CONSTRAINT AT FIRST, WHICH
MAKES THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING PHASE RATHER
UNCERTAIN.=

>

2019-04-24 06:14

WTIO20 FMEE 240616
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 84.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 18 UTC:
11.0 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
11.7 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-24 00:51

WTIO31 FMEE 240051 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.7 S / 83.0 E
(NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

>

2019-04-24 00:51

WTIO30 FMEE 240051 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7 S / 83.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

>

2019-04-24 00:49

WTIO31 FMEE 240051
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.7 S / 83.0 E
(NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/04/2019 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION A PEU EVOLUE.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GCOM DE 1952Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE ENCORE
ASSEZ LARGE. MAIS LES IMAGES SSMI (2137Z) PUIS SSMIS (2154Z) MONTRENT
QUE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE EST LOCALISA E PRES DU CENTRE CE QUI
CONFIRME LA LENTE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS, CETTE DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST ALORS QU'UN
TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE S'INSTALLE GRADUELLEMENT AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST ALORS FAVORABLE A LA
POURSUITE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE VERS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS. CETTE ORIENTATION EST EN BONNE ACCORD AVEC LES
MODELES MAIS L'INCERTITUDE PORTE PLUTOT SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
DU SYSTEME. CERTAINS MODELES SUGGERENT AUSSI QUE LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
INTERAGIR AVEC UN SYSTEME SE DEVELOPPANT PLUS A L'EST. DANS CE CAS,
UN REAJUSTEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST POURRAIT ETRE POSSIBLE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL EST PREVU RESTER FAIBLE A MODERA AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TA POLAIRE. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-EST EST PREVU DEVENIR FORT CONDUISANT A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
AVOIR ATTEINT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR CE POINT EN LIEN AVEC LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT,
AMENANT LE SYSTEME PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
CISAILLE.=

>

2019-04-24 00:49

WTIO30 FMEE 240051
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7 S / 83.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/04/29 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HASN'T EVOLVED SO MUCH. 1952Z
GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE REMAINS
RATHER WIDE. BUT SSMI (2137Z) THEN SSMIS (2154Z) IMAGERIES SHOW THAT
DEEP CONVECTION OCCURS NEAR THE CENTER THAT CONFIRMS THE SLOW
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF LOW TO MID-LEVELS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARDS AND A HIGH TO MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO TAKEN PLACE TO THE SOUTH-WEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUING GENERAL
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
ORIENTATION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS BUT THE UNCERTAINTY
IS MORE ABOUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RSMC FORECAST
SHOWS A SLOWER TRACK THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST TOO
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW LOCATED
FURTHER EAST. IF IT DOES SO, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN WEAK
TO MODERATE WITH A GOOD POLERWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. FROM FRIDAY,
THE NORTHEASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LEADING
TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM . BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME, RELATED TO THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT, BRINGING THE SYSTEM MORE
OR LESS QUICKLY INTO A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.=

>

2019-04-24 00:41

WTIO20 FMEE 240025
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7 S / 83.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 12 UTC:
10.5 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
11.1 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-04-23 18:46

WTIO31 FMEE 231845 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 82.9 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 24/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

>

2019-04-23 18:46

WTIO30 FMEE 231845 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 82.9 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/24 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

>

2019-04-23 18:43

WTIO31 FMEE 231845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 82.9 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 24/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, DES BURSTS DE CONVECTION SE SONT
PRODUITES PRES DU CENTRE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1523Z MONTRE UNE
STRUCTURE ASSEZ ALLONGEE ET TRES DISSYMA TRIQUE AVEC LES VENTS LES
PLUS FORTS DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. LA PASSE ASCAT PERMET D'ESTIMER
LES VENTS MAXIMAUX A 40 KT. AUSSI, LE SYSTEME A DONC ETE BAPTISA
LORNA PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLIQUE MAURICIEN.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS, CETTE DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST ALORS QU'UN
TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE S'INSTALLE GRADUELLEMENT AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST ALORS FAVORABLE A LA
POURSUITE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE VERS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS. CETTE ORIENTATION EST EN BONNE ACCORD AVEC LES
MODELES MAIS L'INCERTITUDE PORTE PLUTOT SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
DU SYSTEME. CERTAINS MODELES SUGGERENT AUSSI QUE LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
INTERAGIR AVEC UN SYSTEME SE DEVELOPPANT PLUS A L'EST. DANS CE CAS,
UN REAJUSTEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST POURRAIT ETRE POSSIBLE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL EST PREVU RESTER FAIBLE A MODERA AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TA POLAIRE. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-EST EST PREVU SE RENFORCER CONDUISANT A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR CE POINT EN LIEN AVEC LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT,
AMENANT LE SYSTEME PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
CISAILLE.=

>

2019-04-23 18:43

WTIO30 FMEE 231845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 82.9 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/24 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, SOME BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE OCCURRED NEAR
THE CENTER. 1523Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS A DISSYMMETRIC STRUCTURE WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ASSOCIATED TO A
RATHER ELONGATED STRUCTURE. ACCORDING WITH THE ASCAT SWATH, MAXIMAL
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KT. SO THE SYSTEM HAS NAMED LORNA BY THE
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF LOW TO MID-LEVELS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARDS AND A HIGH TO MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO TAKEN PLACE TO THE SOUTH-WEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUING GENERAL
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
ORIENTATION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS BUT THE UNCERTAINTY
IS MORE ABOUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RSMC FORECAST
SHOWS A SLOWER TRACK THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST TOO
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW LOCATED
FURTHER EAST. IF IT DOES SO, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN WEAK
TO MODERATE WITH AN EXCELLENT POLERWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE NORTHEASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, RELATED TO THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT,
BRINGING THE SYSTEM MORE OR LESS QUICKLY INTO A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.=

>

2019-04-23 18:43

WTIO20 FMEE 231843
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 23/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 82.9 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 06 UTC:
10.3 S / 83.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 18 UTC:
11.1 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>