Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for KENNETH-19
in Mozambique, Comoros

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-04-26 00:07

WTIO22 FMEE 260008
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/04/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/04/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-KENNETH) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 39.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 12 UTC:
12.7 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/27 AT 00 UTC:
13.0 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-04-25 18:52

WTIO31 FMEE 251845 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/14/20182019
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2 S / 40.3 E
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SO: 160 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION

>

2019-04-25 18:52

WTIO30 FMEE 251845 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/14/20182019
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 40.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SW: 160 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND

>

2019-04-25 18:50

WTIO31 FMEE 251845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/14/20182019
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2 S / 40.3 E
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SO: 160 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LE CENTRE DE KENNETH A TOUCHE LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE VERS 1430UTC AUX
ABORDS DE MUCOJO, AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICALE INTENSE AVEC DES
VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 200KM/H, SOIT DES RAFALES DE L'ORDRE DE
280KM/H. AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, KENNETH AVAIT PROBABLEMENT
ENTAME UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. PLUS DE 4 HEURES
APRES L'ATTERRISAGE, IL EST ENCORE ESTIME DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE 85KT
MAIS CEUX-CI VONT RAPIDEMENT FAIBLIR. LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT ESTIME
ENCORE DES VENTS DE 30KT AUX LARGES DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES, A PLUS
DE 130KM DU CENTRE.

A PRESENT SUR TERRE, LE METEOR KENNETH VA POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE PENDANT PRES DE 18H. PAR LA SUITE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL SUR TERRE RESTE INCERTAINE. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MET EN PLACE SUR
L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, IL POURRAIT REMONTER VERS LE NORD AVANT UN
HYPOTHETIQUE RETOUR SUR MER EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

L'INTENSITE DE KENNETH VA RAPIDEMENT FAIBLIR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H DU FAIT DE SA LOCALISATION SUR TERRE. DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE
30KTS POURRONT TOUTEFOIS ENCORE ETRE PRESENTS JUSQU'A LA NUIT DE
VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

KENNETH RESTE ENCORE UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX QUI IMPACTE
ACTUELLEMENT TRES SEVEREMENT LES REGIONS AU NORD DE PEMBA. LE SYSTEME
A GENERE UNE SURCOTE QUI A ATTEINT ENTRE 3 ET 5M SUR CERTAINES ZONES.
LES FORTES PLUIES ASSOCIEES A KENNETH VONT CONTINUER ET RISQUENT
D'OCCASIONNER DES INONDATIONS SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-25 18:50

WTIO30 FMEE 251845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/14/20182019
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 40.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SW: 160 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CENTRE OF KENNETH REACHED THE MOZAMBICAN COAST AROUND 1430UTC
AROUND MUCOJO, AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH
ESTIMATED AVERAGE WINDS OF 200KM/H, OR GUSTS OF AROUND 280KM/H. AT
THE TIME OF LANDFALL, KENNETH HAD PROBABLY STARTED AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. MORE THAN 4 HOURS AFTER LANDING, WINDS OF 85KT ARE
STILL ESTIMATED BUT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. THE LAST ASCAT SWATH STILL
ESTIMATES WINDS OF 30KT OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, MORE THAN 130KM
FROM THE CENTRE.

NOW ON LAND, THE METEOR KENNETH WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK WESTWARD OVER
MOZAMBIQUE FOR NEARLY 18 HOURS. IN THE MEDIUM TERM, THE TRACK OF THE
RESIDUAL OVERLAND LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEW
RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, IT COULD TRACK NORTHWARD BEFORE
AN UNLIKELY RETURN OVER SEA, SOMETIME IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE INTENSITY OF KENNETH WILL QUICKLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON LAND. HOWEVER, WINDS OF AROUND 30KTS MAY STILL
BE PRESENT UNTIL THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

KENNETH IS THEREFORE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SYSTEM, WHICH CURRENTLY
IMPACTS SEVERELY THE REGIONS NORTH OF PEMBA. THE SYSTEM HAS GENERATED
A STORM SURGE THAT HAS REACHED BETWEEN 3 AND 5M IN SOME AREAS. THE
PHENOMENON OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH WILL CONTINUE
AND MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-25 18:24

WTIO22 FMEE 251818 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (KENNETH) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 40.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 06 UTC:
12.4 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 18 UTC:
12.7 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

>

2019-04-25 18:17

WTIO22 FMEE 251818
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (KENNETH) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 40.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 06 UTC:
12.4 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 18 UTC:
12.7 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-04-25 12:47

WTIO31 FMEE 251220 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.0 S / 40.9 E
(DOUZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SO: 160 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0.CI=6.5+

>

2019-04-25 12:47

WTIO30 FMEE 251220 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/14/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 40.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SW: 160 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0.CI=6.5+

>

2019-04-25 12:27

WTIO31 FMEE 251220
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.0 S / 40.9 E
(DOUZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SO: 160 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 28/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0;CI=6.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE S'EST
LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX UN PEU MOINS FROIDS QUE
PRECEDEMMENT. L'HYPOTHESE DU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
(ERC) EVOQUEE DANS LE BULLETIN PRECEDENT SEMBLE VALIDEE PAR LA
PRESENCE D'UNE "MOAT ZONE" DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DU COEUR INTERNE,
VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGE 89GHZ DE LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 1030Z. L'OEIL DE
KENNETH SE DETERIORE EGALEMENT SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES ET
IR DISPONIBLES, ALORS QUE LA STRUCTURE EXTERNE COMMENCE PROBABLEMENT
A PRENDRE LE DESSUS. EN CONSEQUENCE, L'INTENSITE DE KENNETH EST
DESCENDUE DE 5KT SANS ATTENDRE LA BAISSE DU CI DE DVORAK.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, KENNETH
CONSERVE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO. LE
CENTRE DU METEORE EST ACTUELLEMENT A MOINS DE 50KM DE LA COTE NORD
MOZAMBICAINE ET S'APPRETE A ATTERRIR A ENVIRON 100 KM AU NORD DE
PEMBA DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.
A MOYENNE ECHEANCE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL SUR TERRE
RESTE INCERTAINE. SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SE METTANT EN PLACE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, IL POURRAIT
REMONTER VERS LE NORD AVANT UN HYPOTHETIQUE RETOUR SUR MER EN DEBUT
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

L'INTENSITE DE KENNETH DEVRAIT PEU VARIER JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE
MAIS LE RAYON DE VENTS FORTS DEVRAIT ENCORE UN PEU S'ELARGIR SOUS
L'EFFET DE L'ERC, CE QUI AUGMENTE L'ETENDUE DE LA ZONE DE TEMPS
DANGEREUX DANGEREUSE, TANT AU NIVEAU DES VENTS FORTS QUE DE LA
SURCOTE MARINE.
KENNETH EST DONC UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX QUI IMPACTE
ACTUELLEMENT TRES SEVEREMENT LES REGIONS AU NORD DE PEMBA. LE SYSTEME
VA EGALEMENT GENERER UNE SURCOTE TRES DANGEREUSE LORS DE SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE, POUVANT ATTEINDRE ENTRE 3
ET 5M SUR CERTAINES ZONES AU SUD DU POINT D'IMPACT, A LAQUELLE IL
FAUT AJOUTER LE DEFERLEMENT DES VAGUES ET DE LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE ET
LE PHENOMENE D'ECOULEMENT DES FORTES PLUIES, POUVANT OCCASIONNER DES
INONDATIONS SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-25 12:27

WTIO30 FMEE 251220
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/14/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 40.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SW: 160 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0;CI=6.5+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE SAT PRESENTATION HAS SLIGHTLY
DETERIORATED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE HYPOTHESIS OF AN ONGOING
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE PRESENCE
OF A MOAT AREA WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT OF KENNETH'S INNER
-CORE ON THE 89GHZ 1030Z AMSR2 MW IMAGE. KENNETH'S EYE IS ALSO
DETERIORATING ON THE VERY LAST VIS AND IR IMAGES AVAILABLE, AS THE
OUTER EYEWALL STRUCTURE PROBABLY BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. THEREFORE, THE
INTENSITY HAS ALREADY BEEN DECREASED OF 5 KT WITHOUT WAITING FOR THE
DECREASE OF DVORAK'S CI NUMBER.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, KENNETH MAINTAINS A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING
LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 50 KM AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAN COAST AND
IS ABOUT TO LAND 100KM TO THE NORTH OF PEMBA IN THE NEXT HOURS.
IN THE MEDIUM TERM, THE TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL OVERLAND LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEW RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA, IT COULD TRACK NORTHWARD BEFORE AN UNLIKELY RETURN OVER SEA,
SOMETIME IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

KENNETH'S INTENSITY SHOULD NOT VARY MUCH BEFORE ITS LANDFALL.
HOWEVER, THE RADIUS OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE ONGOING ERC, WHICH SHOULD WIDEN THE AREA OF
MAXIMUM DANGER, BOTH IN TERMS OF STRONG WINDS AND OF MARINE STORM
SURGE.
KENNETH IS THEREFORE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SYSTEM, WHICH CURRENTLY
IMPACTS SEVERELY THE REGIONS NORTH OF PEMBA. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
GENERATE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WHEN LANDING ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS, THAT CAN REACH BETWEEN 3 AND 5M IN SOME AREAS
SOUTH OF THE IMPACT POINT, TO WHICH MUST BE ADDED THE WAVE AND
CYCLONIC SWELL RUN-UP AND THE PHENOMENON OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH CAN
CAUSE FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-25 12:10

WTIO22 FMEE 251212
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 40.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 00 UTC:
12.1 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-04-25 07:07

WTIO31 FMEE 250629 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.7 S / 41.8 E
(ONZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 934 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 115 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5+

>

2019-04-25 07:07

WTIO30 FMEE 250629 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/14/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 41.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 934 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5+

>

2019-04-25 07:04

WTIO31 FMEE 250629
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.7 S / 41.8 E
(ONZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 934 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 115 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ENTOURANT
L'OEIL DE PETITE TAILLE SE SONT ENCORE REFROIDIS, AUGMENTANT ENCORE
LES ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE. L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE SE BASE
SUR UNE MOYENNE DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK DES 3 DERNIERES HEURES, MAIS
LES ANALYSES SONT TEMPORAIREMENT MONTEES A 7.0 SUR CERTAINES IMAGES.
LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DES PASSES SSMIS DE 0201Z ET 0105Z MONTRENT UN
COEUR TRES COMPACT ET TRES SOLIDE. ON NOTE CEPENDANT UNE BANDE DE
CONVECTION INTENSE QUI COMMENCE A S'ENROULER SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD
CE QUI, COMBINE A L'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DES 12 DERNIERES HEURES,
SUGGERE QUE KENNETH EST EN PREMIERE PHASE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC).

PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, KENNETH
CONSERVE UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA
FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPO. IL SE DIRIGE DONC VERS LA COTE NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE QU'IL
TOUCHERA EN FIN D'APRES-MIDI OU DEBUT DE SOIREE (HEURE DU
MOZAMBIQUE), A ENVIRON 100-150 KM AU NORD DE PEMBA.
A MOYENNE ECHEANCE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL SUR TERRE
RESTE INCERTAINE. IL POURRAIT TRANSITER VERS LE NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE
AVANT DE REVENIR SUR LE MER EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. CE
SCENARIO RESTE ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN ET N'EST DONC PAS RETENU DANS LA
PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE, KENNETH A PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT SON PIC
D'INTENSITE AU COURS DES DERNIERS HEURES. UN DEBUT DE DEGRADATION DE
LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES IR,
PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE DEBUT D'ERC, SUGGERE QUE SON INTENSITE
POURRAIT BAISSER LEGEREMENT AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE, EN RESTANT
CEPENDANT SUPERIEURE A 100KT. LE RAYON DE VENTS FORTS DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT S'ELARGIR NETTEMENT, CE QUI POURRAIT AUGMENTER L'ETENDUE DE
LA ZONE DANGEREUSE, TANT AU NIVEAU DES VENTS FORTS QUE DE LA SURCOTE
MARINE.

KENNETH EST DONC UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX QUI VA IMPACTER
TRES SEVEREMENT LES REGIONS AU NORD DE PEMBA. LE SYSTEME VA GENERER
EGALEMENT UNE SURCOTE TRES DANGEREUSE LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE, POUVANT ATTEINDRE ENTRE 3 ET 5M SUR
CERTAINES ZONES AU SUD DE L'ATTERISSAGE, A LAQUELLE IL FAUT AJOUTER
LE DEFERLEMENT DES VAGUES ET DE LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE ET LE PHENOMENE
D'ECOULEMENT DES FORTES PLUIES, POUVANT OCCASIONNER DES INONDATIONS
SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-25 07:04

WTIO30 FMEE 250629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/14/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 41.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 934 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING KENNETH'S PINHOLE EYE
HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL, THUS INCREASING FURTHER THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A 3-HRS MEAN OF
THE LAST DVORAK ANALYSIS, BUT SOME IMAGES HAVE TEMPORARILY REACHED A
7.0 T-NUMBER. THE 0201Z AND 0105Z MW 89GHZ SSMIS IMAGES SHOW A VERY
COMPACT AND SOLID INNER-CORE. HOWEVER, AN OUTER BAND OF CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHICH, COMBINED
WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 12HRS, SUGGEST
THAT KENNETH IS GOING THROUGH THE FIRST STAGE OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC).

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, KENNETH MAINTAINS A
GENERAL WES-SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING
LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THE CURRENT TRACK, A LANDFALL
ON THE NORTH MOZAMBICAN COAST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
OR IN THE EARLY EVENING (MOZAMBIQUE'S TIME), 100 TO 150KM NORTH OF
PEMBA.
IN THE MEDIUM TERM, THE TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL OVERLAND LOW IS
UNCERTAIN. IT COULD TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAN TERRITORIES
BEFORE COMING BACK OVER SEA SOMETIME IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SCENARIO REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS OF YET AND HAS THUS NOT BEEN
DISPLAYED IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, KENNETH HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOURS. THE VERY LAST IR IMAGES SHOW THE
BEGINNING OF A DEGRADATION OF THE SAT PRESENTATION, PROBABLY LINKED
TO THE ERC. KENNETH'S INTENSITY IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BEFORE LANDFALL, WHILE REMAINING OVER 100KT. THE RADIUS OF
DESCTRUCTIVE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, WHICH
SHOULD WIDEN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM DANGER, BOTH IN TERMS OF STRONG
WINDS AND OF MARINE STORM SURGE.

KENNETH IS THEREFORE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
SEVERELY IMPACT THE REGIONS NORTH OF PEMBA. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
GENERATE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WHEN LANDING ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS, WHICH CAN REACH BETWEEN 3 AND 5M IN SOME AREAS
SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL, TO WHICH MUST BE ADDED THE WAVE AND CYCLONIC
SWELL RUN-UP AND THE PHENOMENON OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH CAN CAUSE
FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-25 06:15

WTIO22 FMEE 250616
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/04/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH) 934 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 41.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 18 UTC:
11.9 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 06 UTC:
12.3 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-04-25 01:20

WTIO31 FMEE 250057 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.4 S / 42.7 E
(ONZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

>

2019-04-25 01:20

WTIO30 FMEE 250057 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/14/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 42.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

>

2019-04-25 01:18

WTIO31 FMEE 250057
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.4 S / 42.7 E
(ONZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL EST DEVENU PROGRESSIVEMENT
MIEUX DEFINI AVEC UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF TOUJOURS TRES FROIDS. L'ANALYSE
ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UNE MOYENNE DES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK MAIS
ELLE EST PEUT ETRE UN PEU CONSERVATIVE AU VU DES DERNIERES IMAGES ET
DE LA PASSE SMAP DE 1501Z QUI DONNAIT 99KT. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
AMRS2 DE 2241Z MONTRENT QUE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE EST DEVENU PLUS
COMPACTE. LA PRESSION MINIMALE RELEVE A L'AEROPORT DE HAYAYE SEMBLE
AVOIR ETE 998HPA D'APRES LES METAR AVEC DES RAFALES MAXIMALES DE
60KT. LE CENTRE EST A PRIORI PASSER A UN PEU MOINS DE 50KM DE
L'AEROPORT.


PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA PREVISION, KENNETH CONSERVE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES
PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO. IL SE DIRIGE DONC
VERS LA COTE NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE QU'IL TOUCHERA EN FIN D'APRES-MIDI OU
CE SOIR (HEURE DU MOZAMBIQUE), A ENVIRON 100-150 KM AU NORD DE PEMBA.

ENSUITE, L'ARRIVEE PAR LE SUD-OUEST D'UN PROFOND TALWEG POURRAIT
PERMETTRE AUX RESTES DU MINIMUM SUR TERRE DE TRANSITER VERS LE NORD
DU MOZAMBIQUE AVANT DE REVENIR SUR LE MER A MOYENNE ECHEANCE MAIS CE
SCENARIO RESTE POUR INSTANT ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN.

AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE, ET EN L'ABSENCE D'UNE DEGRADATION ES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONEMENTALES, KENNETH DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE
S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'A L'ATTERISAGE. IL DEVRAIT SE RAPPROCHER DU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE ET POURRAIT L'ATTEINDRE.

KENNETH EST DONC UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX QUI VA IMPACTER
TRES SEVEREMENT LES REGIONS CITEES. LE SYSTEME VA GENERER EGALEMENT
UNE SURCOTE LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE,
POUVANT ATTEINDRE ENTRE 2 ET 4M SUR CERTAINES ZONES AU SUD DE
L'ATTERISAGE, A LAQUELLE IL FAUT AJOUTER LE DEFERLEMENT DES VAGUES ET
LE PHENOMENE D'ECOULEMENT DES FORTES PLUIES, POUVANT OCCASIONNER DES
INONDATIONS SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-25 01:18

WTIO30 FMEE 250057
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/14/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 42.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE EYE BECAME MORE DEFINED WITH A VERY COLD
CONVECTIVE RING. THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK
ANALYSIS BUT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE LAST IMAGES AND TH 1501Z
SMAP DATA (99KT). 2241Z AMSR2Z MICROWAVE SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE IS
MORE COMPACT THAN PREVIOUSLY. MINIMAL PRESSURE AT HAYAYE AIRPORT
SEEMS TO BE 998HPA ACCORDING TO THE METAR MESSAGES, WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS AROUND 60KT. KENNETH CENTER APPARENTLY PASSED A LITTLE LESS
THAN 50KM FAR FROM THE AIRPORT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, KENNETH MAINTAINS A GENERAL WESTWARD
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS.. ON THE
CURRENT TRACK, A LANDFALL ON THE NORTH MOZAMBICAN COAST IS EXPECTED
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING (MOZAMBIQUE'S TIME),
100 TO 150KM NORTH OF PEMBA.

THEN, THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST MAY DRIVE
THE REMNANT LOW TO TRANSIT NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE RETURNING OVER
SEA LATER, BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNLIKELY.

GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, WITHOUT ANY DETERIORATION OF ITS ENVIRONMENT,
KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO THE LANDFALL. IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AND MAY BECOME
ONE.

KENNETH IS THEREFORE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SYSTEM, WHICH SEVERELY
THREATEN THESES REGIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO GENERATE AN STORM SURGE
WHEN LANDING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH CAN REACH BETWEEN 2
AND 4M IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL, TO WHICH MUST BE ADDED
THE BREAKING OF WAVES AND THE PHENOMENON OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH CAN
CAUSE FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-25 00:32

WTIO22 FMEE 250033
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/04/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 42.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 12 UTC:
11.7 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/26 AT 00 UTC:
12.0 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-04-24 20:04

WTIO31 FMEE 241909 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.0 S / 43.5 E
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-04-24 20:04

WTIO30 FMEE 241909 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/14/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 43.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-04-24 20:02

WTIO31 FMEE 241909
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.0 S / 43.5 E
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 27/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, UN OEIL EST PROGRESSIVEMENT APPARU
EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE. L'INTENSITE EST PRINCIPALEMENT BASE SUR UNE
MOYENNE DES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK EN OEIL. CETTE ESTIMATION EST
EN ACCORD AVEC LES AUTRES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVE
DISPONIBLES. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES NOTAMMENT SSMIS 1550Z
ET 1451Z MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE TRES SOLIDE. ELLES MONTRENT
EGALEMENT QUE LE CENTRE A TEMPORAIREMENT ADOPTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
ORIENTE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. CE COMPORTEMENT EST PEUT ETRE DU AU
RELIEF DE GRANDE COMORE OU A UN PROCESSUS INTERNE.

KENNETH EST EN TRAIN DE PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU NORD DE
GRANDE COMORE. LE RAYON DE VENT MAX VA PEUT ETRE EVITER LE LITTORAL,
MAIS LES DERNIERES IMAGES SEMBLENT INDIQUER LA PRESENCE D'UN
MOUVEMENT TROCHOIDAL RENDANT INCERTAIN LA DISTANCE REELLE DU PASSAGE
AU PLUS PROCHE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA PREVISION, KENNETH CONSERVE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE RAPIDE GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO. IL SE DIRIGE
DONC VERS LA COTE NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE QU'IL TOUCHERA JEUDI EN COURS
D'APRES-MIDI (HEURE DU MOZAMBIQUE), A ENVIRON 100-150 KM AU NORD DE
PEMBA.

ENSUITE, L'ARRIVEE PAR LE SUD-OUEST D'UN PROFOND TALWEG POURRAIT
PERMETTRE AUX RESTES DU MINIMUM SUR TERRE DE TRANSITER VERS LE NORD
DU MOZAMBIQUE AVANT DE REVENIR SUR LE MER A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI
PROCHAIN MAIS CE SCENARIO RESTE POUR INSTANT ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN.

AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE, ET EN L'ABSENCE D'UNE DEGRADATION ES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONEMENTALES, KENNETH DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE
S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'A L'ATTERISAGE ET ATTEINDRE DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

KENNETH EST DONC UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI VA IMPACTER TRES
SEVEREMENT LES REGIONS CITEES. LE SYSTEME VA GENERER EGALEMENT UNE
SURCOTE LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE, POUVANT
ATTEINDRE ENTRE 2 ET 4M SUR CERTAINES ZONES AU SUD DE L'ATTERISAGE, A
LAQUELLE IL FAUT AJOUTER LE DEFERLEMENT DES VAGUES ET LE PHENOMENE
D'ECOULEMENT DES FORTES PLUIES, POUVANT OCCASIONNER DES INONDATIONS
SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-24 20:02

WTIO30 FMEE 241909
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/14/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 43.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AN EYE PROGRESSIVELY APPEARED IN INFRARED
IMAGERY. INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE LAST DVORAK
ANALYSIS. THIS ESTIMATE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTHER SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. LAST MICROWAVES ESPECIALLY 1550Z AND 1451Z
SSMIS SHOW A VERY STRONG INNER RING. THEY ALSO REVEAL A TEMPORARILY
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK. THIS BEHAVIOR COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE ON THE ISLAND OR BECAUSE OF AN INTERNAL PHENOMENON.

KENNETH IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF GRANDE COMORE SHORE.
MAXIMUM WINDS RADIUS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. BUT DUE TO THE CURRENT
TROCHOIDAL MOVEMENT, THE DISTANCE TO THE COASTLINE IS STILL UNCERTAIN

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, KENNETH MAINTAINS A QUICK MOVE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARDS MOTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING LOW TO
MID LEVELS HIGHS.. ON THE CURRENT TRACK, A LANDFALL ON THE NORTH
MOZAMBICAN COAST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY DURING AFTERNOON (MOZAMBIQUE'S
TIME), 100 TO 150KM NORTH OF PEMBA.

THEN, THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST MAY DRIVE
THE REMNANT LOW TO TRANSIT NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE RETURNING OVER
SEA BY NEXT MONDAY, BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNLIKELY.

GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, WITHOUT ANY DETERIORATION OF ITS ENVIRONMENT,
KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO THE LANDFALL AND REACH THE
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SHORTLY.

KENNETH IS THEREFORE A VERY DANGEROUS SYSTEM, WHICH SEVERELY THREATEN
THE QUOTED REGIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO GENERATE AN STORM SURGE WHEN
LANDING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH CAN REACH BETWEEN 2 AND 4M
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL, TO WHICH MUST BE ADDED THE
BREAKING OF WAVES AND THE PHENOMENON OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH CAN
CAUSE FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-24 18:28

WTIO22 FMEE 241828 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 43.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
11.3 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-04-24 18:26

WTIO22 FMEE 241828
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 43.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
11.3 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 18 UTC:
11.5 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-04-24 12:48

WTIO31 FMEE 241235 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.3 S / 44.4 E
(ONZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

>

2019-04-24 12:48

WTIO30 FMEE 241235 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/14/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 44.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

>

2019-04-24 12:45

WTIO31 FMEE 241235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/14/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.3 S / 44.4 E
(ONZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDE DE 0550UTC ONT PERMIS DE NOTER UNE LEGERE
COMPOSANTE OUEST-SUD-OUEST DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE. AU COURS DES SIX
DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE KENNETH A EVOLUE ENTRE
UNE CONFIGURATION EN CDO ET EN OEIL. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
INFRA-ROUGES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A DU MAL A SE MAINTENIR POUR
MIGRER DE NOUVEAU EN CDO. LA DERNIERE ANALYSE DVORAK DU CMRS
CORROBORE LES DIFFERENTES ESTIMATIONS AUTOMATIQUES DONNANT UNE
ESTIMATION DE VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 70KTS. KENNETH EST CYCLONE TROPICAL
DEPUIS 09UTC.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA PREVISION, KENNETH CONSERVE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE RAPIDE GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO. CEPENDANT LA
LEGERE COMPOSANTE OUEST-SUD-OUEST PRISE DERNIEREMENT INDUIT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE QUI VA IMPACTER DIRECTEMENT LA GRANDE COMORES, EN COURS
DE NUIT PROCHAINE. PAR LA SUITE, KENNETH CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION DE LA COTE NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE QU'IL TOUCHERA JEUDI EN COURS
D'APRES-MIDI (HEURE DU MOZAMBIQUE). ENSUITE, L'ARRIVEE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST D'UN PROFOND TALWEG POURRAIT PERMETTRE AUX RESTES DU
MINIMUM SUR TERRE DE TRANSITER VERS LE NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE AVANT DE
REVENIR SUR LE MER A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI PROCHAIN MAIS CE SCENARIO
RESTE POUR INSTANT ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR EST AYANT FAIBLIT,
L'INTENSIFICATION DE KENNETH EST PREVUE SE FAIRE DE FACON CONTINUE
JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE. LA MAJORITE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PREVOIENT
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE, MAIS LA PRESENTE
PREVISION DU CMRS PROPOSE UNE INTENSITE ATTEIGNANT LE SEUIL DE
CYCLONE TROPICALE INTENSE AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE.

KENNETH EST DONC UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX. L'IMPACT DIRECT ATTENDU POUR
LA GRANDE COMORES PUIS L'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA ZONE DE QUISANGA SUR LE
MOZAMBIQUE, INVITE LES HABITANTS DE CES SECTEURS A SUIVRE DE PRES
L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME VA GENERER AUSSI UNE SURCOTE
LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE, POUVANT
ATTEINDRE ENTRE 2 ET 4M SUR CERTAINES ZONES, A LAQUELLE IL FAUT
AJOUTER LE DEFERLEMENT DES VAGUES ET LE PHENOMENE D'ECOULEMENT DES
FORTES PLUIES, POUVANT OCCASIONNER DES INONDATIONS SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-24 12:45

WTIO30 FMEE 241235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/14/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 44.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

THE 0550UTC MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT
IN THE TRACK. OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED
FROM A CDO TO AN EYE PATTERN. ON THE LAST INFRARED IMAGES, THE EYE
PATTERN MIGRATE BACK TO CDO. THE LAST DVORAK ANALYSIS OF THE RSMC
CORROBORATES THE DIFFERENT AUTOMATIC ESTIMATES GIVING A WIND ESTIMATE
OF ABOUT 70KTS. KENNETH HAS BEEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE 09UTC.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, KENNETH MAINTAINS A QUICK MOVE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARDS MOTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING LOW TO
MID LEVELS HIGHS. HOWEVER, THE SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TAKEN
RECENTLY INDUCES A TRACK THAT WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE NORTHERNMOST
ISLANDS OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO DURING THE COMING NIGHT. ON THE
CURRENT TRACK, A LANDFALL ON THE NORTH MOZAMBICAN COAST IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY DURING AFTERNOON (MOZAMBIQUE'S TIME). THEN, THE ARRIVAL OF A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST MAY DRIVE THE REMNANT LOW TO
TRANSIT NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE RETURNING OVER SEA BY NEXT MONDAY,
BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNLIKELY.

THE EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WEAKENING, KENNETH'S INTENSIFICATION
IS PLANNED TO BE CONTINUOUS UNTIL LANDING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WILL BE REACHED BEFORE
LANDFALL, BUT THIS RSMC FORECAST PROPOSES AN INTENSITY REACHING THE
THRESHOLD OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF LANDING.

KENNETH IS THEREFORE A DANGEROUS SYSTEM. THE DIRECT IMPACT EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERNMOST ISLANDS OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND THE
LANDING IN THE QUISANGA AREA ON MOZAMBIQUE COAST, INVITES THE
INHABITANTS OF THESE SECTORS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO GENERATE AN STORM
SURGE WHEN LANDING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH CAN REACH
BETWEEN 2 AND 4M IN SOME AREAS, TO WHICH MUST BE ADDED THE BREAKING
OF WAVES AND THE PHENOMENON OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH CAN CAUSE
FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

2019-04-24 12:45

WTIO22 FMEE 241207 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 44.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 230 MN WITHIN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
11.7 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-04-24 12:06

WTIO22 FMEE 241207
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 44.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 230 MN WITHIN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
11.7 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 12 UTC:
12.0 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-04-24 07:13

WTIO31 FMEE 240636 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/14/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8 S / 45.8 E
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-24 07:13

WTIO30 FMEE 240636 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/14/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 45.8 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

>

2019-04-24 07:09

WTIO31 FMEE 240636
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/14/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8 S / 45.8 E
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LES BOUFFEES CONVECTIVES SONT
RESTEES TRES PUISSANTES AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS PRES DU CENTRE.
LE CISAILLEMENT PRESENT SUR LA ZONE DE KENNETH EST PARTIELLEMENT
COMPENSER PAR LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME, CE QUI PERMETTRA AU
SYSTEME DE MAINTENIR SON INTENSIFICATION FUTURE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDE DE 0313UTC PERMETTENT DE VALIDER UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES BIEN SOLIDE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION CDO SITUE LE
SYSTEME AU DERNIER SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA PREVISION, KENNETH EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER RAPIDEMENT VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES
PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
SELON CETTE TRAJECTOIRE ATTERIR SUR LA COTE NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE JEUDI
EN FIN D'APRES-MIDI APRES UN TRANSIT AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE LA GRANDE
COMORES DANS LA NUIT MERCREDI A JEUDI, PASSANT A PRES DE 50KM DES
COTES.
ENSUITE, L'ARRIVEE PAR LE SUD-OUEST D'UN PROFOND TALWEG POURRAIT
PERMETTRE AUX RESTES DU MINIMUM SUR TERRE DE TRANSITER VERS LE NORD
DU MOZAMBIQUE AVANT DE REVENIR SUR LE MER A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI
PROCHAIN MAIS CE SCENARIO RESTE POUR INSTANT ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN.

LE DEBUT DE LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR EST, QUI SE
POURSUIVRA JEUDI, DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE SON
INTENSIFICATION. LA MAJORITE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PREVOIENT LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE.

KENNETH EST DONC UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX QUAND IL SERA AU PLUS PRES DES
ILES LES PLUS NORD DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET EN APPROCHE DE LA
REGION DU NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE / SUD TANZANIE. LE SYSTEME VA GENERER
AUSSI UNE SURCOTE LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE, POUVANT ATTEINDRE ENTRE 2 ET 4M SUR CERTAINES ZONES, A
LAQUELLE IL FAUT AJOUTER LE DEFERLEMENT DES VAGUES ET LE PHENOMENE
D'ECOULEMENT DES FORTES PLUIES, POUVANT OCCASIONNER DES INONDATIONS
SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. LES HABITANTS DE CES SECTEURS SONT INVITES A
SUIVRE DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS.=

>

2019-04-24 07:09

WTIO30 FMEE 240636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/14/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 45.8 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION REMAINED
VERY POWERFUL WITH VERY COLD TOP CLOUDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE SHEAR
PRESENT IN THE KENNETH'S AREA IS PARTIALLY COMPENSATED BY THE RAPID
DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS FUTURE INTENSIFICATION. THE 0313UTC MICROWAVE DATA ALLOW TO
VALIDATE A VERY SOLID LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
CDO PATTERN PLACES THE SYSTEM AT THE LAST THRESHOLD OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE ABOUT THE FORECAST, KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ON
A GENERAL WESTWARDS MOTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING LOW TO
MID LEVELS HIGHS. ON THE CURRENT TRACK, A LANDFALL ON THE NORTH
MOZAMBICAN COAST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
(MOZAMBIQUE'S TIME) AFTER A TRANSIT IN THE VICINITY NORTH OF COMORES
ISLAND IN THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, PASSING ALMOST 50KM FROM
THE COAST.
THEN, THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST MAY DRIVE
THE REMNANT LOW TO TRANSIT NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE RETURNING OVER
SEA BY NEXT MONDAY, BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNLIKELY.

THE EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO DECREASE
PROGRESSIVELY FROM TODAY ALLOWING TO THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ON ITS
INTENSIFICATION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS WILL BE REACHED BEFORE LANDFALL.

KENNETH IS THEREFORE A DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHEN IT IS LOCATED AS CLOSE
AS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHERNMOST ISLANDS OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO
AND APPROACHING THE NORTHERN REGION OF MOZAMBIQUE / SOUTHERN
TANZANIA. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO GENERATE AN STORM SURGE WHEN LANDING
ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH CAN REACH BETWEEN 2 AND 4M IN SOME
AREAS, TO WHICH MUST BE ADDED THE BREAKING OF WAVES AND THE
PHENOMENON OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH CAN CAUSE FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THESE SECTORS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.=

>

2019-04-24 06:04

WTIO22 FMEE 240603
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 45.8 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 260 MN WITHIN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 18 UTC:
11.0 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
11.3 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-04-24 00:41

WTIO31 FMEE 240015 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/14/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8 S / 46.4 E
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0

>

2019-04-24 00:41

WTIO30 FMEE 240015 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 46.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 11.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0

>

2019-04-24 00:14

WTIO31 FMEE 240015
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/14/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8 S / 46.4 E
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A CONTINUE DE
S'INTENSIFIER. DES BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION TRES PUISSANTES AVEC DES
SOMMETS TRES FROIDS SE PRODUISENT REGULIEREMENT PRES DU CENTRE. LE
SYSTEME A MAINTENANT BIEN ACCELERE CE QUI LUI PERMET DE REDUIRE
L'INFLUENCE NEFASTE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST QUI RESTE ANALYSA
A 25 KT PAR LE CIMSS A 18Z.

KENNETH EST PREVU SE DEPLACER RADIDEMENT VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE
RENFORCANT GRADUELLEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT SELON CETTE TRAJECTOIRE ATTERIR SUR LA COTE NORD DU
MOZAMBIQUE JEUDI SOIR APRES UN TRANSIT AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE LA GRANDE
COMORES DANS LA NUIT MERCREDI A JEUDI.
ENSUITE, L'ARRIVEE PAR LE SUD-OUEST D'UN PROFOND THALWEG POURRAIT
PERMETTRE AUX RESTES DU MINIMUM DE REVENIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE
MAIS CE SCENARIO RESTE POUR INSTANT ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN.

LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR PREVU AUJOURD'HUI ET
SURTOUT DEMAIN DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE SON
INTENSIFICATION. LA MAJORITE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PREVOIENT LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT L'ATTERISSAGE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
DONC ETRE UN DANGEREUX SYSTEME QUAND IL SERA AU PLUS PRES DES ILES
LES PLUS NORD DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET EN APPROCHE DE LA REGION
DU NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE / SUD TANZANIE. LES HABITANTS DE CES SECTEURS
SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2019-04-24 00:14

WTIO30 FMEE 240015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 46.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 11.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. SOME
STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD TOP CLOUDS OCCUR REGULARLY
NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD THAT DECREASE
THE EFFECT OF THE EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ALWAYS ANALYSED AT 25 KT
BY THE CIMSS AT 18Z.

KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ON A GENERAL WESTWARDS MOTION ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS WHILE MOVING
EASTWARD. ON THE CURRENT TRACK, A LANDFALL ON THE NORTH MOZAMBICAN
COAST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING AFTER A TRANSIT IN THE VICINITY
NORTH OF COMORES ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THEN, THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST MAY DRIVE
THE REMNANT LOW OVER THE CHANNEL. BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL
UNLIKELY.

THE EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO DECREASE
PROGRESSIVELY FROM TODAY ALLOWING TO THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ON ITS
INTENSIFICATION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS WILL BE REACHED BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREFORE KENENTH
SHOULD BE A DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHEN IT WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
COMOROS ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE / SOUTHERN TANZANIA
COASTS LATER THIS WEEK. INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-04-24 00:11

WTIO22 FMEE 240013
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/04/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 46.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 12 UTC:
11.0 S / 44.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
11.2 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-04-23 22:22

WTXS31 PGTW 232100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 004 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 10.7S 47.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 47.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.9S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.2S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.5S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.9S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.2S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 47.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AS THE SYSTEM BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC AND
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK FORMATIVE EYE HAS
BECOME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE,
LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 231541Z GPM 36GHZ
COLORIZED IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND
T4.0/60KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION IN
PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 30C. TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NEAR TAU 48. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION, ESPECIALLY AFTER LANDFALL, WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO 70NM BY
TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE
COMPASS DIRECTION IN REMARKS LINE 3 AND LANDFALL AREA IN REMARKS LINE
19.//
NNNN

>

2019-04-23 19:03

WTIO31 FMEE 231857 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/14/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.7 S / 47.5 E
(DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 24/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.5-

>

2019-04-23 19:03

WTIO30 FMEE 231857 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/14/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 47.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/24 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.5-

>

2019-04-23 19:00

WTIO31 FMEE 231857
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/14/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.7 S / 47.5 E
(DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 24/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, DES BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION TRES
PUISSANTES SE SONT PRODUIT PRES DU CENTRE ET LE SYSTEME A DEVELOPPE
UN CDO EXTREMEMENT FROID. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GMI DE 1541Z MONTRE LA
FORMATION D'UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION QUASI-FERMA EN 89 GHZ. AUSSI
L'INTENSITE A A TA ELEVEE A 45 KT EN ACCORD AVEC L'ADT DU CIMSS.

KENNETH EST PREVU ACCELERER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE RENFORCANT GRADUELLEMENT AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS EN SE DEPLACANT VERS L'EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SELON
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE ATTERIR SUR LA COTE NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE DURANT LA
NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI. ENSUITE, L'ARRIVEE PAR LE SUD-OUEST D'UN
PROFOND THALWEG POURRAIT PERMETTRE AUX RESTES DU MINIMUM DE REVENIR
SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE MAIS CE SCENARIO RESTE POUR INSTANT ENCORE
TRES INCERTAIN.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, IL EXISTE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CAPACITE AU
CISAILLEMENT ACTUEL A DURABLEMENT AFFECTER CE SYSTEME DE PETITE
TAILLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. EN EFFET, CE DERNIER DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR DEMAIN ET DEVENIR MOINS SENSIBLE EN RAISON DU DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME DANS LA MEME DIRECTION. LA MAJORITE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES
PREVOIENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT L'ATTERISSAGE AVEC
NOTAMMENT GFS ET AROME PARMI LES PLUS AGRESSIFS (CYCLONE INTENSE). LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC ETRE UN DANGEREUX SYSTEME QUAND IL SERA AU PLUS
PRES DES ILES LES PLUS NORD DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET EN APPROCHE
DE LA REGION DU NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE / SUD TANZANIE. LES HABITANTS DE
CES SECTEURS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2019-04-23 19:00

WTIO30 FMEE 231857
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/14/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 47.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/24 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/25 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SOME INTENSE BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE
OCCURED NEAR THE CENTER AND THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPPED A VERY COLD
CDO. 1541Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERIES SHOW A 89 GHZ EYE FEATURE ALMOST
CLOSED. SO THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT HAS RAISED AT 45 KT ACCORDING
WITH THE ADT FROM CIMSS.

KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ON A GENERAL WESTWARDS MOTION ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS WHILE MOVING
EASTWARD. ON THE CURRENT TRACK, A LANDFALL ON THE NORTH MOZAMBICAN
COAST IS EXPECTED DURING THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN, THE ARRIVAL
OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST MAY DRIVE THE REMNANT LOW
OVER THE CHANNEL. BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNLIKELY.

ABOUT ITS INTENSITY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW THE CURRENT
SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THIS LITTLE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. INDEED, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER FROM TOMORROW AND
BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IS THE SAME
DIRECTION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS WILL BE REACHED BEFORE LANDFALL. GFS AND AROME ARE AMONG THE
MOST INTENSE SYSTEMS FORECASTING AN INTENSE CYCLONE. THEREFORE
KENENTH WILL PROBABLY BE A DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHEN IT WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN COMOROS ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE / SOUTHERN
TANZANIA COASTS LATER THIS WEEK. INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-04-23 18:53

WTIO22 FMEE 231853
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 23/04/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 47.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 06 UTC:
11.0 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 18 UTC:
11.2 S / 44.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-04-23 13:13

WTIO31 FMEE 231254 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/14/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.3 S / 49.3 E
(DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 00 UTC: 10.4 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 24/04/2019 12 UTC: 10.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+

>

2019-04-23 13:13

WTIO30 FMEE 231254 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/14/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 49.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 00 UTC: 10.4 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 10.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

>

2019-04-23 13:11

WTIO31 FMEE 231254
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/14/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.3 S / 49.3 E
(DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 190 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 00 UTC: 10.4 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 24/04/2019 12 UTC: 10.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 25/04/2019 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/04/2019 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/04/2019 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU
SYSTEME 14 S'EST AMELIOREE AVEC UN CENTRE PLUS PROCHE DE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE ET DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX TOUJOURS TRES FROIDS (AUTOUR DE
-90C). AU VU DE CETTE AMELIORATION, LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE KENNETH
PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR. LA PASSE TARDIVE AMRS2
DE 1042Z MONTRE CEPENDANT QUE LE SYSTEME RESTE TRES CISAILLE AVEC UN
CENTRE EN BORDURE SUD D'UNE VIRGULE CONVECTIVE EN 89GHZ. LE CIMSS
ANALYSE TOUJOURS UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT DE SECTEUR SUD-EST DE
L'ORDRE DE 20KT.

APRES AVOIR RALENTI TEMPORAIREMENT, KENNETH DEVRAIT ACCELERER SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE RENFORCANT
GRADUELLEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS EN SE DEPLACANT VERS
L'EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SELON CETTE TRAJECTOIRE ATTERIR SUR LA COTE
NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE DURANT LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI. ENSUITE,
L'ARRIVEE PAR LE SUD-OUEST D'UN PROFOND THALWEG POURRAIT PERMETTRE
AUX RESTES DU MINIMUM DE REVENIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE MAIS CE
SCENARIO RESTE POUR INSTANT ENCORE TRES INCERTAIN.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, IL EXISTE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CAPACITE AU
CISAILLEMENT ACTUEL A DURABLEMENT AFFECTER LE SYSTEME AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS. EN EFFET, CE DERNIER DEVRAIT FAIBLIR DEMAIN ET
DEVENIR MOINS SENSIBLE EN RAISON DU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DANS LA
MEME DIRECTION. LA MAJORITE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PREVOIENT LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT L'ATTERISSAGE AVEC NOTAMMENT GFS ET AROME
PARMI LES PLUS AGRESSIFS (CYCLONE INTENSE). LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC
ETRE UN DANGEREUX SYSTEME QUAND IL SERA AU PLUS PRES DES ILES LES
PLUS NORD DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET EN APPROCHE DE LA REGION DU
NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE / SUD TANZANIE. LES HABITANTS DE CES SECTEURS SONT
INVITES A SUIVRE DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2019-04-23 13:11

WTIO30 FMEE 231254
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/14/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH)

2.A POSITION 2019/04/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 49.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/24 00 UTC: 10.4 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 10.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED WITH A CENTER
CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH VERY COLD TOPS (-90C). GIVEN
THIS TREND, THE STORM WAS NAMED KENNETH BY THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DESPITE THAT, LATE 1042Z AMRS2 MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STILL VERY PRESENT WITH A CENTER
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG CONVECTIVE COMMA IN 89GHZ. CIMSS
ANALYZE STILL A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-EASTERLY SHEAR AROUND 20KT.

AFTER TEMPORARILY SLOWING DOWN, KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARDS MOTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING LOW TO
MID LEVELS HIGHS WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. ON THE CURRENT TRACK, A
LANDFALL ON THE NORTH MOZAMBICAN COAST IS EXPECTED DURING THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN, THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE
SOUTH-WEST MAY DRIVE THE REMNANT LOW OVER THE CHANNEL. BUT THIS
SCENARIO IS STILL UNLIKELY.

ABOUT ITS INTENSITY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW THE CURRENT
SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INDEED, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER FROM TOMORROW AND BECOME
LESS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IS THE SAME DIRECTION.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE LANDFALL. GFS AND AROME ARE AMONG THE MOST INTENSE
SYSTEMS FORECASTING AN INTENSE CYCLONE. THEREFORE KENENTH WILL
PROBABLY BE A DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHEN IT WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
COMOROS ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE / SOUTHERN TANZANIA
COASTS LATER THIS WEEK. INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-04-23 12:44

WTIO22 FMEE 231224
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 23/04/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KENNETH) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 49.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 00 UTC:
10.4 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/04/24 AT 12 UTC:
10.6 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>