Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for JOANINHA-19
in Mauritius

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-03-31 12:20

WTIO22 FMEE 311222
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 31/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-JOANINHA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 69.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/04/01 AT 00 UTC:
27.8 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/01 AT 12 UTC:
29.8 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION ON THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-03-31 06:37

WTIO22 FMEE 310638
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 31/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-JOANINHA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 69.4 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 18 UTC:
27.5 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
29.5 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-31 02:26

WTXS51 PGTW 310300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190331002149
2019033100 22S JOANINHA 037 01 195 04 SATL 030
T000 268S 0698E 035 R034 190 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 276S 0691E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 26.8S 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.6S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

>

2019-03-31 02:26

WTXS31 PGTW 310300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 26.8S 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.6S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED
BY STRONG (40KTS+) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DISPLACING AND
ERODING THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION MORE THAN 50NM SOUTHEASTWARD
AND PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS BECOME RAGGED

>

2019-03-31 02:20

WTXS51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190331002149
2019033100 22S JOANINHA 037 01 195 04 SATL 030
T000 268S 0698E 035 R034 190 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 276S 0691E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 26.8S 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.6S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z
IS 20 FEET.
//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219033000 244S 692E 60
2219033000 244S 692E 60
2219033006 253S 696E 60
2219033006 253S 696E 60
2219033012 258S 699E 55
2219033012 258S 699E 55
2219033018 264S 699E 45
2219033100 268S 698E 35
NNNN

>

2019-03-31 02:19

WTXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 26.8S 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.6S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED
BY STRONG (40KTS+) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DISPLACING AND
ERODING THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION MORE THAN 50NM SOUTHEASTWARD
AND PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS BECOME RAGGED
AND ELONGATED. ADDITIONALLY, THE JTWC TC PHASE CLASSIFICATION
WORKSHEET SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL. TC 22S WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 20
FEET.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-31 00:10

WTIO22 FMEE 310013
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 31/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-JOANINHA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 70.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 12 UTC:
27.6 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/04/01 AT 00 UTC:
29.1 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-30 21:05

WTXS51 PGTW 302100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190330191811
2019033018 22S JOANINHA 036 01 175 09 SATL 025
T000 267S 0700E 045 R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 275S 0693E 040 R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 285S 0688E 035 R034 130 NE QD 260 SE QD 170 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 299S 0685E 030
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-30 21:05

WTXS31 PGTW 302100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.5S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-30 20:27

WTXS51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190330191811
2019033018 22S JOANINHA 036 01 175 09 SATL 025
T000 267S 0700E 045 R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 275S 0693E 040 R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 285S 0688E 035 R034 130 NE QD 260 SE QD 170 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 299S 0685E 030
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.5S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 29.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 803 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219033000 244S 692E 60
2219033000 244S 692E 60
2219033006 253S 696E 60
2219033006 253S 696E 60
2219033012 258S 699E 55
2219033012 258S 699E 55
2219033018 267S 700E 45
NNNN

>

2019-03-30 20:25

WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.5S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 29.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 803 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP BUT COLLAPSING CONVECTION
SHEARED EAST AND POLEWARD OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A BROAD LLC FEATURE
IN THE 301657Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS. TC 22S
HAS DRIFTED INTO HIGH (40KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER,
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE STRAYED
CONVECTION. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO GET WORSE AND RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. CONCURRENTLY, THE
CYCLONE IS NOW UNDERGOING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL BECOME
FULLY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 24, IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-30 18:13

WTIO22 FMEE 301814
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 30/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-JOANINHA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 70.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 06 UTC:
27.2 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 18 UTC:
28.0 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-30 15:58

WTXS51 PGTW 301500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190330125313
2019033012 22S JOANINHA 035 01 145 08 SATL 030
T000 260S 0701E 055 R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 215 SE QD 195 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 268S 0699E 050 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 277S 0693E 045 R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 289S 0690E 045 R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 301S 0687E 045 R034 220 NE QD 270 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 324S 0685E 040 R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 356S 0685E 035 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 26.0S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-30 15:58

WTXS31 PGTW 301500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 26.0S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.8S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-30 14:12

WTXS51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190330125313
2019033012 22S JOANINHA 035 01 145 08 SATL 030
T000 260S 0701E 055 R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 215 SE QD 195 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 268S 0699E 050 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 277S 0693E 045 R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 289S 0690E 045 R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 301S 0687E 045 R034 220 NE QD 270 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 324S 0685E 040 R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 356S 0685E 035 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 26.0S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.8S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 28.9S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.1S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 32.4S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 35.6S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 70.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219033000 244S 692E 60
2219033000 244S 692E 60
2219033006 253S 696E 60
2219033006 253S 696E 60
2219033012 260S 701E 55
2219033012 260S 701E 55
NNNN

>

2019-03-30 14:11

WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 26.0S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.8S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 28.9S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.1S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 32.4S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 35.6S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 70.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT HAS
FORCED THE CONVECTION AND CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 301101Z GMI 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
VIEW OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
EXCEEDS THE KNES/PGTW DVORAK AVERAGE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) WITH THE
HEDGING BASED ON A TREND FROM A 300404Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS.
UNFAVORABLE VWS AND COOL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL
NEGATE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE
DURATION OF THE WARNING. TC 22S IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 48, TC 22S SHOULD SLOWLY START TO
DEVELOP SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL, COLD CORE LOW. BY TAU 96, THAT TRANSITION SHOULD BE
COMPLETE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. UKMET AND ECMWF ARE THE RIGHT-OF-TRACK AND
LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIERS AND CAUSE THE SPREAD TO EXCEED 180 NM BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 72, THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE WITH
THE OTHER MEMBERS AND THE SPREAD REDUCES SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE
HIGH SPREAD IN THE EARLY FORECAST TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-30 12:43

WTIO22 FMEE 301228 RRA
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 30/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-JOANINHA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 70.0 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 00 UTC:
26.7 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 12 UTC:
27.4 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

>

2019-03-30 12:29

WTIO22 FMEE 301228
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 30/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-JOANINHA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 70.0 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 00 UTC:
26.7 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 12 UTC:
27.4 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-30 08:20

WTXS51 PGTW 300900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190330073354
2019033006 22S JOANINHA 034 01 160 10 SATL 030
T000 253S 0696E 060 R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 261S 0696E 060 R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
165 NE QD 220 SE QD 195 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 272S 0692E 055 R050 010 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 281S 0690E 050 R050 000 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 294S 0688E 045 R034 230 NE QD 260 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 322S 0686E 045 R034 180 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 352S 0683E 040 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 25.3S 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-30 08:14

WTXS31 PGTW 300900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 25.3S 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.1S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-30 08:12

WTXS51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190330073354
2019033006 22S JOANINHA 034 01 160 10 SATL 030
T000 253S 0696E 060 R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 261S 0696E 060 R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 220 SE QD 195 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 272S 0692E 055 R050 010 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 281S 0690E 050 R050 000 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 294S 0688E 045 R034 230 NE QD 260 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 322S 0686E 045 R034 180 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 352S 0683E 040 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 25.3S 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.1S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.2S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.1S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 29.4S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 32.2S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 35.2S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 748 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219033000 244S 692E 60
2219033000 244S 692E 60
2219033006 253S 696E 60
2219033006 253S 696E 60
NNNN

>

2019-03-30 08:09

WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 25.3S 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.1S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.2S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.1S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 29.4S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 32.2S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 35.2S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 748 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAS DISPLACED THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING
FROM A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN A 300404Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-T3.5 (45-55 KTS)
BASED ON THE METOP-B PASS WHICH SHOWED A SWATH OF 60 KT WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
HIGH (30-40 KT) VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AROUND TAU 48-72, AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL, COLD CORE LOW WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
TC 22S, CAUSING IT TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. UNTIL COMPLETING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, TC 22S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
ALTHOUGH EVERY MEMBER OF THE CONSENSUS SHOWS A GENERALLY POLEWARD
TRACK, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
LARGELY DUE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM DEPICTING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN
THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS MAINTAIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS, HEDGED AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF ECMWF AND NAVGEM, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-30 06:42

WTIO22 FMEE 300637 RRA
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 30/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-JOANINHA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 69.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/30 AT 18 UTC:
26.1 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 06 UTC:
26.9 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

>

2019-03-30 06:39

WTIO22 FMEE 300637
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 30/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-JOANINHA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 69.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/30 AT 18 UTC:
26.1 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 06 UTC:
26.9 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
RECENT SETELLITE SURFACE WINDS SHOW THAT THE WINDS ARE STRONGER AND
THE WINDFIELDS IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.=

>

2019-03-30 03:03

WTXS51 PGTW 300300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190330022550
2019033000 22S JOANINHA 033 01 145 06 SATL 060
T000 244S 0692E 060 R050 160 NE QD 155 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
275 NE QD 265 SE QD 155 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 253S 0694E 060 R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 240 SE QD 230 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 262S 0692E 050 R050 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 275S 0686E 045 R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 292S 0684E 045 R034 220 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 320S 0684E 045 R034 200 NE QD 270 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 355S 0687E 040 R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-30 03:03

WTXS31 PGTW 300300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.3S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-30 02:59

WTXS51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190330022550
2019033000 22S JOANINHA 033 01 145 06 SATL 060
T000 244S 0692E 060 R050 160 NE QD 155 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 275 NE QD 265 SE QD 155 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 253S 0694E 060 R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 240 SE QD 230 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 262S 0692E 050 R050 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 275S 0686E 045 R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 292S 0684E 045 R034 220 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 320S 0684E 045 R034 200 NE QD 270 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 355S 0687E 040 R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.3S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.2S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.5S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.2S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 32.0S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 35.5S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 69.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219033000 244S 692E 60
2219033000 244S 692E 60
NNNN

>

2019-03-30 02:58

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.3S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.2S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.5S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.2S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 32.0S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 35.5S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 69.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF TC 22S
CONTINUES TO DEGRADE GRADUALLY WITH TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 292314Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ELONGATED LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW/FMEE/FIMP AND T3.0
FROM KNES, COMBINED WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATING A
POSSIBLE LOW BIAS IN THE DVORAK VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TC
22S IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30 TO 35 KNOTS) ACTING TO DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TC 22S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN MARGINAL (26 TO
27 DEGREES CELSIUS). HOWEVER, SST WILL DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK AS TC 22S CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. COOLER SST, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD-CORE LOW WILL
RESULT IN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCING BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETED
BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SHAPE OF THE TRACK, BUT THE SPREAD REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND TAU
24. GIVEN THE UPCOMING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND THE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-30 00:38

WTIO31 FMEE 300015 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 69.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/04/2019 12 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/04/2019 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/04/2019 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5+

>

2019-03-30 00:38

WTIO30 FMEE 300015 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 69.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/01 12 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/02 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/03 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5+

>

2019-03-30 00:19

WTIO31 FMEE 300015
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 69.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/04/2019 12 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/04/2019 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/04/2019 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5+

DANS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE NE PERMETTANT PAS DE LOCALISER LE
VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES, LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE DE JOANINHA EST
ASSEZ DELICATE. SON CENTRE PEUT ETRE ESTIME DANS LA ZONE PEU
CONVECTIVE FORMANT UNE VIRGULE SUR LES IMAGES INFRA-ROUGES DE 00UTC.
DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION, UNE ESTIMATION DE VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT
PEUT ETRE FAITE.

JOANINHA CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS : LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST ET UN TALWEG DES LATITUDES MOYENNES AU
SUD. DIMANCHE JOANINHA ORIENTERA TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
LE SUD-SUD-OUEST EN BUTANT SUR UNE ZONE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS QUI SE
RENFORCE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. CES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SE DECALENT
RAPIDEMENT VERS L'EST LAISSANT LE SYSTEME REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD DES LUNDI, QU'IL CONSERVERA JUSQU'A DEPASSER LE 35S. LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'APPUIE SUR UN CONSENSUS DE MODELES
AMERICAINS, PLUS PERFORMANTS SUR L'EPISODE DE JOANINHA BIEN QUE LE
MODELE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN SEMBLE S'AMELIORER SUR LES DERNIERS
RESEAUX.

ACTUELLEMENT CISAILLE, ET EN SUIVANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE,
JOANINHA VA CONTINUER A SUBIR UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST. SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AIDE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S, EST PREVU S'ACCENTUER. EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES EN EVOLUANT SOUS LE JET SUBTROPICAL MAIS SANS
INTERACTION. AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONSERVER LONGTEMPS UN COEUR
CHAUD PEU PROFOND. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE PLACER SOUS L'AXE
DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE, LUI PERMETTANT
UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE. LA CONVECTION PEU PROFONDE POURRAIT
ALORS SE RENFORCER AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION ET MAINTENIR LA
STRUCTURE HYBRIDE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A MARDI APRES-MIDI, AVANT DE
COMMENCER SON COMBLEMENT.=

>

2019-03-30 00:19

WTIO30 FMEE 300015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 69.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/01 12 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/02 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/03 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5+

IN A SHEARED PATTERN NOT ALLOWING TO LOCATE THE LOWLEVEL VORTEX, THE
LOCATION OF JOANINHA'S CENTER IS RATHER DELICATE. ITS CENTER CAN BE
ESTIMATED IN THE UNCONVECTIVE AREA FORMING A COMMA ON THE 00UTC
INFRARED IMAGES. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, A WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 50KT
CAN BE MADE.

JOANINHA CONTINUE ITS SLOWLY MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY TWO
FAR LARGE-SCALE FEATURES : THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE
NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SUNDAY, JOANINHA SHOULD
TEMPORALLY CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BUMPS INTO A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE SHIFT EASTWARD RAPIDLY, AND LET
JOANINHA GO ON TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES MONDAY, THAT IT WILL
KEEP UNTIL IT PASSES THE 35S. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS SHOWN BETTER PERFORMANCE IN
JOANINHA'S CASE. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL SEEMS TO BE IMPROVING ON
THE LATEST ANALYSIS TIMES.

CURRENTLY SHEARED, AND FOLLOWING A MERIDIAN TRACK, JOANINHA WILL
ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTHWESTERN WINDSHEAR, WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
ACCELERATE ITS WEAKENING ALSO FAVORED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. AT THE END OF SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET BUT WITHOUT INTERACTION. SO THE
SHALLOW WARM CORE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE BENEATH THE TROUGH AND EXPERIENCE A WEAKENING VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR, ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE SHALLOW
CONVECTION COULD THUS STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE CIRCULATION AND SUSTAIN
THE HYBRID STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
STARTING ITS FILLING.=

>

2019-03-30 00:04

WTIO20 FMEE 300006
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 30/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 69.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 340 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/30 AT 12 UTC:
25.9 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/31 AT 00 UTC:
26.7 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-29 21:12

WTXS51 PGTW 292100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190329194309
2019032918 22S JOANINHA 032 01 145 06 SATL 030
T000 239S 0688E 065 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 225 SE QD
190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 248S 0691E 055 R050 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
185 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 257S 0691E 050 R050 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 267S 0684E 045 R034 160 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 281S 0679E 045 R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 316S 0679E 045 R034 230 NE QD 260 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 353S 0685E 040 R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-29 21:12

WTXS31 PGTW 292100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-29 20:37

WTXS51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190329194309
2019032918 22S JOANINHA 032 01 145 06 SATL 030
T000 239S 0688E 065 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 225 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 248S 0691E 055 R050 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 257S 0691E 050 R050 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 267S 0684E 045 R034 160 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 281S 0679E 045 R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 316S 0679E 045 R034 230 NE QD 260 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 353S 0685E 040 R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.7S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 26.7S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 35.3S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 68.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032906 229S 681E 75
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032912 234S 684E 70
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
2219032918 239S 688E 65
NNNN

>

2019-03-29 20:36

WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.7S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 26.7S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 35.3S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 68.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS
ORGANIZED AND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 291652Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF
T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 291159Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS AND A KNES DVORAK CI OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 22S WILL TRACK OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING
DEEP LAYER LOW WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO TEMPORARILY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SHAPE OF THE TRACK,
INDICATING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 12, THEN A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN A SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK
SHAPE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD OF 250 NM AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
BY TAU 72. THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 360 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. INTERACTION WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-29 18:54

WTIO31 FMEE 291820 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.6 S / 68.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SO: 180 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/04/2019 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/04/2019 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2019 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 03/04/2019 18 UTC: 43.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=4.0+

>

2019-03-29 18:54

WTIO30 FMEE 291820 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 68.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 180 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/01 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/01 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/02 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/03 18 UTC: 43.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=4.0+

>

2019-03-29 18:52

WTIO31 FMEE 291820
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.6 S / 68.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SO: 180 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/04/2019 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/04/2019 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2019 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 03/04/2019 18 UTC: 43.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=4.0+

LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST EST FORTE ET ACCENTUE
LA CONFIGURATION CISAILLE DE JOANINHA. AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES, LE CENTRE A ENCORE GLISSE VERS LE BORD NORD-OUEST DE LA
CONVECTION LA PLUS FORTE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1718UTC PERMET DE VALIDER
CETTE LOCALISATION AVEC DES VALEURS DE VENTS DE 55KT QUI CONFIRMENT
L'ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 60KT FAITE PAR L'ANALYSE DVORAK. JOANINHA
A PASSE LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.


JOANINHA CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS : LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE
AU NORD-EST ET UN TALWEG DES LATITUDES MOYENNES AU SUD AXE SUR
MADAGASCAR. DIMANCHE JOANINHA ORIENTERA TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST EN BUTANT SUR UNE ZONE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. CES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SE
DECALENT VERS L'EST LAISSANT LE SYSTEME REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD DES LUNDI. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'APPUIE
SUR UN CONSENSUS DE MODELES AMERICAINS, PLUS PERFORMANTS SUR
L'EPISODE DE JOANINHA BIEN QUE LE MODELE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN SEMBLE
S'AMELIORER SUR LES DERNIERS RESEAUX.

ACTUELLEMENT CISAILLE, ET EN SUIVANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE,
JOANINHA VA CONTINUER A SUBIR UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST. SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AIDE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S, EST PREVU S'ACCENTUER. EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES EN EVOLUANT SOUS LE JET SUBTROPICAL MAIS SANS
INTERACTION AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE. AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
CONSERVER LONGTEMPS UN COEUR CHAUD PEU PROFOND. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST
PREVU SE PLACER SOUS L'AXE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT
EN BAISSE, LUI PERMETTANT UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE. LA CONVECTION
PEU PROFONDE POURRAIT ALORS SE RENFORCER AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION ET
MAINTENIR LA STRUCTURE HYBRIDE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A MARDI APRES-MIDI,
AVANT DE COMMENCER SON COMBLEMENT.=

>

2019-03-29 18:52

WTIO30 FMEE 291820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 68.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 180 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/01 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/01 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/02 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/03 18 UTC: 43.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=4.0+

THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT IS STRONG AND ACCENTUATES THE
JOANINHA'S SHEARED PATTERN. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CENTER HAS
AGAIN SLIPPED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
BURSTS. THE 1718UTC ASCAT SWATH VALIDATES THIS LOCATION WITH WIND
VALUES OF 55KT, WHICH CONFIRMS THE 60KT ESTIMATE MADE BY THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS. JOANINHA REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

JOANINHA CONTINUE ITS SLOWLY MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY TWO
FAR LARGE-SCALE FEATURES : THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE
NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AXED OVER MADAGASCAR. SUNDAY,
JOANINHA SHOULD TEMPORALLY CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BUMPS INTO
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE SHIFT EASTWARD, AND
LET JOANINHA GO ON TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES MONDAY. THE RSMC
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS SHOWN
BETTER PERFORMANCE IN JOANINHA'S CASE. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL SEEMS
TO BE IMPROVING ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS TIMES.


CURRENTLY SHEARED, AND FOLLOWING A MERIDIAN TRACK, JOANINHA WILL
ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTHWESTERN WINDSHEAR, WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
ACCELERATE ITS WEAKENING ALSO FAVORED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. AT THE END OF SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET. HOWEVER, NO INTERACTION IS AWAITED
WITH THE BAROCLINIC AREA, AND THE SHALLOW WARM CORE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE. MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BENEATH THE TROUGH AND
EXPERIENCE A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN INTENSITY. THE SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD THUS STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION AND SUSTAIN THE HYBRID STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE STARTING ITS FILLING.=

>

2019-03-29 18:04

WTIO20 FMEE 291803
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 29/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 68.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/30 AT 06 UTC:
24.8 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/30 AT 18 UTC:
25.9 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-29 14:53

WTXS51 PGTW 291500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190329141348
2019032912 22S JOANINHA 031 01 130 06 SATL 060
T000 234S 0685E 065 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 210 SE QD
180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 242S 0688E 055 R050 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 260 SE QD 230 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 251S 0688E 050 R050 030 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 261S 0683E 045 R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 273S 0679E 045 R034 170 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 317S 0675E 045 R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 352S 0679E 040 R034 230 NE QD 280 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-29 14:52

WTXS31 PGTW 291500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.2S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-29 14:49

WTXS51 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190329141348
2019032912 22S JOANINHA 031 01 130 06 SATL 060
T000 234S 0685E 065 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 242S 0688E 055 R050 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 260 SE QD 230 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 251S 0688E 050 R050 030 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 261S 0683E 045 R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 273S 0679E 045 R034 170 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 317S 0675E 045 R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 352S 0679E 040 R034 230 NE QD 280 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.2S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.3S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 31.7S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 35.2S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 68.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032318 167S 617E 65
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032400 170S 616E 75
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032406 171S 617E 80
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032412 172S 618E 85
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032418 174S 619E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032500 175S 621E 95
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032518 185S 633E 105
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032600 189S 637E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032606 192S 642E 110
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032612 195S 650E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032618 198S 655E 115
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032700 201S 659E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032706 202S 664E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032712 203S 668E 110
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032718 205S 670E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032800 207S 672E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032806 211S 674E 115
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032812 215S 676E 110
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032818 219S 677E 100
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032900 224S 679E 85
2219032906 230S 680E 70
2219032906 230S 680E 70
2219032906 230S 680E 70
2219032912 234S 685E 65
2219032912 234S 685E 65
2219032912 234S 685E 65
NNNN

>

2019-03-29 14:49

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.2S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.3S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 31.7S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 35.2S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 68.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS STRUGGLING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC IN THE MSI
LOOP AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 291106Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE TILT EMPHASIZING THE SHEAR BETWEEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED 37GHZ IMAGE AND THE SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS ALIGNED WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW A 291159Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 69 KTS. TC 22S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ABOVE 30 KTS CONTINUES
TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEM?S STRUCTURE, LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING. TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE, WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AS THE STR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS INCLUDING INCREASING VWS, COOLER SSTS AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AT TAU 72, AND DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED ABOVE THE SYSTEM. AROUND
TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A TROPICAL TO
SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC, GALE FORCE WIND RADII
AS IT MERGES WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 96, TC
22S WILL BE THOROUGHLY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE JET AND
WILL TRANSITION FROM SUBTROPICAL TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LATERAL SPREAD
AMONG THE MEMBERS. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED IN
AGREEMENT WITH OR JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IMPLYING
A WEAKER STR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THERE REMAINS MODERATE
LATERAL SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-29 12:39

WTIO31 FMEE 291221 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 68.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 560 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 320 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/04/2019 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2019 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 03/04/2019 12 UTC: 41.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-29 12:39

WTIO30 FMEE 291221 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 68.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/01 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/02 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/03 12 UTC: 41.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-29 12:39

WTIO20 FMEE 291215 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 29/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 68.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

>

2019-03-29 12:35

WTIO31 FMEE 291221
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 68.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 560 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 320 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/04/2019 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2019 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 03/04/2019 12 UTC: 41.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE DE JOANINHA PERSISTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE FRORTE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1106Z MONTRE EGALEMENT QUE LES NOYAUX CONVECTIFS
LES PLUS ACTIFS SONT CONFINES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LA COMPARAISON
DES IMAGES 91GHZ ET 37GHZ MONTRE UN DECALAGE MARQUE, SIGNE DE
L'INCLINAISON DU VORTEX.

JOANINHA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS : LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST ET
UN TALWEG DES LATITUDES MOYENNES AU SUD AXA SUR MADAGASCAR. DIMANCHE
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN
BUTANT SUR UNE ZONE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME MAIS QUI SE DECALE VITE VERS L'EST LAISSANT LE SYSTEME
REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD DES LUNDI. LA DISPERSION ENTRE
LES MODELES RESTE ENCORE RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'APPUIE SUR UN CONSENSUS DE MODELES AMERICAINS,
PLUS PERFORMANTS SUR L'EPISODE QUE LE MODELE CEP, QUI PRESENTE
TOUJOURS UNE INTENSITE ANALYSEE LARGEMENT SOUS-ESTIMEE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE, JOANINHA VA CONTINUER A SUBIR UN
FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT ACCELERER
SENSIBLEMENT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT AIDE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN DIMANCHE, LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES EN
EVOLUANT SOUS LE JET SUBTROPICAL MAIS SANS INTERACTION AVEC LA ZONE
BAROCLINE. AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONSERVER LONGTEMPS UN COEUR
CHAUD PEU PROFOND TYPE SECLUSION CHAUDE. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU
SE PLACER SOUS L'AXE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN
BAISSE. LA CONVECTION PEU PROFONDE POURRAIT ALORS SE RENFORCER AU
SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION ET MAINTENIR LA STRUCTURE HYBRIDE DU SYSTEME
JUSQU'A MARDI APRES-MIDI.=

>

2019-03-29 12:35

WTIO30 FMEE 291221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 68.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/01 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/02 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/03 12 UTC: 41.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

JOANINHA'S SHEARED CONFIGURATION PERSISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. THE 1106Z SSMIS MW IMAGES ARE
ALSO SHOWING THAT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE CONFINED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 91GHZ AND
37GHZ IMAGES SHOW A CLEAR OFFSET, DISPLAYING THE VORTEX TILT.

JOANINHA IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY TWO FAR LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES : THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST AND A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AXED OVER MADAGASCAR. SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TEMPORALLY CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BUMPS INTO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
IN THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND LET
JOANINHA GO ON TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES MONDAY.
THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH. THE RSMC
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS SHOWN
BETTER PERFORMANCE IN JOANINHA'S CASE. THE ECMWF ANALYSED INTENSITY
IS LARGELY UNDERESTIMATED.

ALONG THIS GLOBALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK, JOANINHA WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHWESTERN WINDSHEAR, WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
ACCELERATE ITS WEAKENING ALSO FAVORED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRACKS UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. HOWEVER, NO INTERACTION IS AWAITED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC AREA, AND THE WHALLOW WARM CORE, SIMILAR TO A WARM
SECLUSION, SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
BENEATH THE TROUGH AND EXPERIENCE A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE
SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD THUS STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE CIRCULATION AND
SUSTAIN THE HYBRID STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.=

>

2019-03-29 12:13

WTIO20 FMEE 291215
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 29/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 68.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/30 AT 00 UTC:
24.2 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/30 AT 12 UTC:
25.4 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-29 06:31

WTIO31 FMEE 290616 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.8 S / 68.2 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 560 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 320 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/04/2019 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2019 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 03/04/2019 06 UTC: 39.6 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-29 06:31

WTIO30 FMEE 290616 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 68.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/01 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/02 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/03 06 UTC: 39.6 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-29 06:28

WTIO31 FMEE 290616
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.8 S / 68.2 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 560 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 320 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/04/2019 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2019 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 03/04/2019 06 UTC: 39.6 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A BIEN RESISTE SUR LE
CENTRE DE CIRCULATION DE JOANINHA ET A MEME REUSSI A S'ENROULER DANS
LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. LES ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES SONT EN ACCORD AVEC L'ANALYSE DVORAK DU CMRS ET
TEMOIGNENT D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE
0218Z ET 0057Z MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE AVEC UN COEUR EN
COURS DE DESORGANISATION SOUS L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST ESTIME A 25KT PAR LE CIMSS.

JOANINHA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN
FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PILOTE A LA FOIS
PAR DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS ASSEZ LOINTAINS : LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD ET UN TALWEG DES LATITUDES MOYENNES AU SUD
AXA SUR MADAGASCAR. DIMANCHE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT INCURVER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN BUTANT SUR UNE ZONE DE HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD DU SYSTEME MAIS QUI SE DECALE
VITE VERS L'EST LAISSANT LE SYSTEME REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD DES LUNDI. LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES RESTE ENCORE
RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'APPUIE
SUR LE CONSENSUS DES MODELES AMERICAINS, QUI ONT PRESENTE SUR LE CAS
DE JOANINHA DE MEILLEURES PERFORMANCES. LE MODELE CEP PRESENTE UNE
ANALYSE D'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME LARGEMENT SOUS-ESTIMEE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE, JOANINHA VA CONTINUER A SUBIR UN
FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT ACCELERER
SENSIBLEMENT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT AIDE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES EN EVOLUANT
SOUS LE JET SUBTROPICAL MAIS SANS INTERACTION AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE.
AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONSERVER LONGTEMPS UN COEUR CHAUD PEU
PROFOND TYPE SECLUSION CHAUDE. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE PLACER
SOUS L'AXE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE. LA
CONVECTION PEU PROFONDE POURRAIT ALORS SE RENFORCER AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION ET MAINTENIR LA STRUCTURE HYBRIDE DU SYSTEME.=

>

2019-03-29 06:28

WTIO30 FMEE 290616
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 68.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/01 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/02 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/03 06 UTC: 39.6 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION RESISTED WELL OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND EVEN MANAGED TO WRAP BACK OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATIONS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CMRS DVORAK ANALYSIS AND CONFIRM A SLOW
WEAKENING. THE 0218Z AND 0057Z SSMIS MW IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED PATTERN
WITH A DISORGANISING INNER-CORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ESTIMATED AT 25KT BY CIMSS.

JOANINHA IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY TWO FAR LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES : THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST AND A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AXED OVER MADAGASCAR. SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TEMPORALLY CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BUMPS INTO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
IN THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND LET
JOANINHA GO ON TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES MONDAY.
THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH. THE RSMC
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS SHOWN
BETTER PERFORMANCE IN JOANINHA'S CASE. THE ECMWF ANALYSED INTENSITY
IS LARGELY UNDERESTIMATED.

ALONG THIS GLOBALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK, JOANINHA WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHWESTERN WINDSHEAR, WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
ACCELERATE ITS WEAKENING ALSO FAVORED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRACKS UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. HOWEVER, NO INTERACTION IS AWAITED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC AREA, AND THE WHALLOW WARM CORE, SIMILAR TO A WARM
SECLUSION, SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
BENEATH THE TROUGH AND EXPERIENCE A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE
SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD THUS STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE CIRCULATION AND
SUSTAIN THE HYBRID STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

2019-03-29 06:10

WTIO20 FMEE 290608 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 29/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 68.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

>

2019-03-29 06:07

WTIO20 FMEE 290608
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 29/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 68.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 18 UTC:
24.0 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/30 AT 06 UTC:
25.2 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-29 00:38

WTIO31 FMEE 290008 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 68.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2019 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 03/04/2019 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

>

2019-03-29 00:38

WTIO30 FMEE 290008 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 68.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/02 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/03 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

>

2019-03-29 00:38

WTIO20 FMEE 290005 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 29/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 68.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

2019-03-29 00:05

WTIO31 FMEE 290008
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 68.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2019 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 03/04/2019 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME
A CONTINUE DE SE DEGADER SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST (ANALYSE A 20 KT A 18Z PAR LE CIMSS). L'INTENSITE
RETENUE EST EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS QUI
INDIQUENT TOUTES UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DE 80 KT.

JOANINHA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN
FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE DIRIGA A LA FOIS
PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD ET UN TALWEG DES LATITUDES
MOYENNES AU SUD AXA SUR MADAGASCAR. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU ACCELERER AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DES 2 CENTRES D'ACTIONS PRA
CITA S EN ORIENTANT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD. DIMANCHE LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSES TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD DU SYSTEME
MAIS QUI SE DECALE VITE VERS L'EST LAISSANT LE SYSTEME REPRENDRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD.
LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE. LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'APPUIE SUR LE CONSENSUS DES MODELES
AMERICAINS, QUI ONT PRESENTE SUR LE CAS DE JOANINHA DE MEILLEURES
PERFORMANCES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, JOANINHA VA RENCONTRER UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST MODERE A FORT, CE QUI DEVRAIT ACCELERER
SENSIBLEMENT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT AIDE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL EN EVOLUANT
SOUS LE JET SUBTROPICAL MAIS SANS INTERACTION AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE.
AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONSERVER UN COEUR CHAUD PEU PROFOND TYPE
SECLUSION CHAUDE. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE PLACER SOUS L'AXE DU
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE. LA CONVECTION PEU
PROFONDE POURRAIT ALORS SE RENFORCER UN SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION.=

>

2019-03-29 00:05

WTIO30 FMEE 290008
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 68.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/02 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/03 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATIONS FROM
CIMSS INDICATING AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 80KT.

JOANINHA MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOW STEERED BY A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH (MLT) AXED NEAR MADAGASCAR. FROM SATURDAY,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED ACCELERATE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF BOTH NER AND MLT. SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TEMPORALLY CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
SOUTH BUT THAT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD LETTING JOANINHA GO
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.
THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS IS STILL IMPORTANT. THE RSMC'S
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAVE
SHOWN BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE JOANINHA CASE.

MOVING SOUTHWARD, JOANINHA WILL ENCOUNTER A MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERN WINDSHEAR WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE ITS
WEAKENING FAVOURED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S.
FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSING ITS PURELY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EVOLVING UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET BUT
WITHOUT INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC AREA. SO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
EVOLVE LIKE A WARM SECLUSION WITH A SHALLOW WARM CORE. MONDAY, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE BENEATH THE TROUGH AND SHOULD EXPERIENCE
A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD
STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.=

>

2019-03-29 00:02

WTIO20 FMEE 290005
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 29/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 68.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 12 UTC:
23.5 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/30 AT 00 UTC:
24.5 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-28 18:12

WTIO31 FMEE 281811 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.0 S / 67.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 949 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2019 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 02/04/2019 18 UTC: 37.3 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0- CI=5.5

>

2019-03-28 18:12

WTIO30 FMEE 281811 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 949 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/01 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/02 18 UTC: 37.3 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5

>

2019-03-28 18:09

WTIO31 FMEE 281811
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.0 S / 67.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 949 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2019 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 02/04/2019 18 UTC: 37.3 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0- CI=5.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME
S'EST DEGRADEE. L'OEIL S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT OBSCURCIT AVEC UN POINT
CHAUD QUI A DISPARU SUR L'IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE A PARTIR DE 1630Z. LA
PASSSE WINDSAT 37 GHZ DE 1341Z MONTRE MAINTENANT UNE STRUCTURE
CISAILLEE AVEC LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALEMENT LOCALISEE DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST. L'INTENSITE RETENUE EST EN ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION
SATCON ET L'ADT DU CIMSS.

JOANINHA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN
FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE DIRIGA A LA FOIS
PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD ET UN TALWEG DES LATITUDES
MOYENNES AU SUD AXA SUR MADAGASCAR. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU ACCELERER AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DES 2 CENTRES D'ACTIONS PRA
CITA S EN ORIENTANT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD. DIMANCHE LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSES TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD DU SYSTEME
MAIS QUI SE DECALE VITE VERS L'EST LAISSANT LE SYSTEME REPRENDRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD.
LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE. LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'APPUIE SUR LE CONSENSUS DES MODELES
AMERICAINS, QUI ONT PRESENTE SUR LE CAS DE JOANINHA DE MEILLEURES
PERFORMANCES.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE SUBIR UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST. CETTE CONTRAINTE EST PREVUE SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT
MAIS ELLE RESTE COMPENSEE PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN
BON POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AUSSI L'INTENSITE DE JOANINHA
EST PREVUE S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT CETTE NUIT. EN SE DEPLACANT
VERS LE SUD, JOANINHA VA RENCONTRER UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER VENDREDI ET PLUS NETTEMENT
SAMEDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT
AIDE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S. A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICAL EN EVOLUANT SOUS LE JET SUBTROPICAL MAIS SANS
INTERACTION AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE. AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
CONSERVER UN COEUR CHAUD PEU PROFOND TYPE SECLUSION CHAUDE. LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU SE PLACER SOUS L'AXE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE. LA CONVECTION PEU PROFONDE POURRAIT SE
RENFORCER UN SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION.=

>

2019-03-28 18:09

WTIO30 FMEE 281811
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 949 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/01 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/02 18 UTC: 37.3 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. EYE HAS
PROGRESSIVELY OBSCURED ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE WARM POINT
DISAPPEARED AT 1630Z. THE 1341Z 37 GHZ WINDSAT SWTH SHOWS A SHEARED
INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATIONS FROM CIMSS.

JOANINHA MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOW STEERED BY A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH (MLT) AXED NEAR MADAGASCAR. FROM SATURDAY,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED ACCELERATE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF BOTH NER AND MLT. SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TEMPORALLY CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
SOUTH BUT THAT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD LETTING JOANINHA GO
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.
THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS IS STILL IMPORTANT. THE RSMC'S
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAVE
SHOWN BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE JOANINHA CASE.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A WEAK NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THIS CONSTRAINT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT
REMAINS OFFSET BY AN GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND GOOD
OCEANIC CONTENT. SO THE JOANINHA'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THIS NIGHT. MOVING SOUTHWARD, JOANINHA WILL ENCOUNTER A
NORTHWESTERN WINDSHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM TOMORROW
, AND MORE CLEARLY ON SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE
ITS WEAKENING FAVOURED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S.
FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSING ITS PURELY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EVOLVING UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET BUT
WITHOUT INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC AREA. SO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
EVOLVE LIKE A WARM SECLUSION WITH A SHALLOW WARM CORE. MONDAY, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE BENEATH THE TROUGH AND SHOULD EXPERIENCE
A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD
STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.=

>

2019-03-28 18:08

WTIO20 FMEE 281808 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 949 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

>

2019-03-28 18:05

WTIO20 FMEE 281805 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) CENTRAL PRESSURE
NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

>

2019-03-28 18:05

WTIO20 FMEE 281808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 949 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 06 UTC:
22.5 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 18 UTC:
23.3 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-28 18:03

WTIO20 FMEE 281805
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) CENTRAL PRESSURE
NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 06 UTC:
22.5 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 18 UTC:
23.3 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-28 12:49

WTIO31 FMEE 281218 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 67.6 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2019 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 02/04/2019 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-28 12:49

WTIO30 FMEE 281218 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 67.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/01 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/02 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-28 12:47

WTIO31 FMEE 281218
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 67.6 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2019 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 02/04/2019 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'OEIL DU CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
JOANINHA EST RESTE COUVERT ET LA CONVECTION DU MUR DE L'OEIL ETAIT
ASSEZ FLUCTUANTE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET D'ESTIMER ENCORE DES VENTS
DE L'ORDRE DE 95KT MAIS LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 1106 ET
1119UTC LAISSE ENTREVOIR UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA CIRCULATION DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD. CELA EST PRECURSEUR D'UN PROCHAIN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET
SE RETROUVE DANS LE FT DE 5.5

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE JOANINHA EST ORIENTE AU SUD-SUD-EST EN MAINTENANT
UNE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ FAIBLE. SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE AU SUD DU SYSTEME, JOANINHA DEVRAIT
MAINTENIR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST PENDANT PRES DE DEUX
JOURS A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DES
LATITUDES MOYENNES. PAR LA SUITE, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE DANS
L'EST DU SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD SERA PREDOMINANTE
LAISSANT JOANINHA PLONGER VERS LES LATITUDES SUD EN ACCELERANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT.
LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE, PRESENTANT
TOUJOURS DEUX OPTIQUES ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'APPUIE SUR LE CONSENSUS DES MODELES AMERICAINS,
QUI ONT PRESENTE SUR LE CAS DE JOANINHA DE MEILLEURES PERFORMANCES.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE SUBIR UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE DE SECTEUR OUEST.
CETTE CONTRAINTE EST PREVUE SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT MAIS ELLE
RESTE COMPENSEE PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN BON
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AUSSI L'INTENSITE DE JOANINHA EST
PREVUE S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 18 HEURES.
SE DEPLACANT VERS LE SUD, JOANINHA VA RENCONTRER UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER VENDREDI ET PLUS
NETTEMENT SAMEDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AIDE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
AU SUD DE 25S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU INTERAGIR
AVEC LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, PERDANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES, AVANT D'ENTAMER UNE PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI.=

>

2019-03-28 12:47

WTIO30 FMEE 281218
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 67.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/01 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/02 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE OF THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
JOANINHA REMAINED COVERED AND THE CONVECTION OF THE EYE WALL WAS
QUITE FLUCTUATING. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS STILL ESTIMATES WINDS IN THE
ORDER OF 95KT BUT THE 1106UTC AND 1119UTC MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS IN THE CIRCULATION IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. IT'S A PRECURSOR
TO A FURTHER WEAKENING AND IS IN THE FT NUMBER OF 5.5

JOANINHA'S TRACK IS ORIENTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHILE MAINTAINING A
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT. UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, JOANINHA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS
SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST TRACK FOR NEARLY TWO DAYS, AHEAD AN UPPER/MID
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. THEREAFTER, WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE RIDGE IN
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, THE TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WILL BE
PREDOMINANT, LETTING JOANINHA GO TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AND
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS IS STILL
IMPORTANT, PRESENTING TWO PERSPECTIVES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS.
THE RSMC'S TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAVE SHOWN BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE JOANINHA CASE.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A WEAK WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THIS CONSTRAINT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT REMAINS OFFSET
BY AN GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEANIC CONTENT.
SO THE JOANINHA'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS. MOVING SOUTHWARD, JOANINHA WILL ENCOUNTER A
NORTHWESTERN WINDSHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM FRIDAY ,
AND MORE CLEARLY ON SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE
ITS WEAKENING FAVOURED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S.
FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE ALTITUDE
TROUGH, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BEFORE
STARTING AN EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE AT THE END OF MONDAY.=

>

2019-03-28 12:40

WTIO20 FMEE 281203 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 67.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 00 UTC:
22.3 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-28 12:01

WTIO20 FMEE 281203
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 67.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 00 UTC:
22.3 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 12 UTC:
23.3 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-28 06:58

WTIO31 FMEE 280619 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 67.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2019 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 02/04/2019 06 UTC: 35.5 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-28 06:58

WTIO30 FMEE 280619 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/01 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/02 06 UTC: 35.5 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-28 06:55

WTIO31 FMEE 280619
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 67.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2019 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 02/04/2019 06 UTC: 35.5 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0-

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JOANINHA CONSERVE BIEN UNE CONFIGURATION
EN OEIL MAIS AU FIL DES HEURES, CETTE CONFIGURATION SE DEGRADE. LA
CONVECTION COMMENCE A PRESENTER UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE SECTEUR EST A
SUD-EST. L'INTENSITE RESTE POUR LE MOMENT STATIONNAIRE MAIS IL FAUT
S'ATTENDRE A UNE BAISSE PROCHAINE COMME SEMBLE LE CONFIRMER
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE METOP-B DE 0443UTC.

DEPUIS PEU, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE JOANINHA S'EST ORIENTE AU SUD-SUD-EST
EN MAINTENANT UNE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ FAIBLE. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE AU SUD DU SYSTEME,
JOANINHA DEVRAIT MAINTENIR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST
PENDANT PRES DE DEUX JOURS A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE/MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DES LATITUDES MOYENNES. PAR LA SUITE, AVEC LA
CONSTRUCTION D'UNE DORSALE DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
LE SUD SERA PREDOMINANTE LAISSANT JOANINHA PLONGER VERS LES LATITUDES
SUD EN ACCELERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT.
LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE, PRESENTANT
ENCORE DEUX OPTIQUES ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'APPUIE SUR LE CONSENSUS DES MODELES AMERICAINS,
QUI ONT PRESENTE SUR LE CAS DE JOANINHA DE MEILLEURES PERFORMANCES.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE SUBIR UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE DE SECTEUR OUEST.
CETTE CONTRAINTE EST PREVUE SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT MAIS ELLE
RESTE COMPENSEE PAR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN BON
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AUSSI L'INTENSITE DE JOANINHA EST
PREVUE S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.
SE DEPLACANT VERS LE SUD, JOANINHA VA RENCONTRER UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER VENDREDI ET PLUS
NETTEMENT SAMEDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AIDE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
AU SUD DE 25S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU INTERAGIR
AVEC LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, PERDANT PROGRESSSIVEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES, AVANT D'ENTAMER UNE PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI.=

>

2019-03-28 06:55

WTIO30 FMEE 280619
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/01 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/02 06 UTC: 35.5 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOANINHA KEEPS AN EYE PATTERN BUT AS THE
HOURS GO BY, THIS PATTERN DETERIORATES. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW WEAKNESS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTOR. THE INTENSITY REMAINS
STATIONARY FOR THE MOMENT BUT A DECREASE IS TO BE EXPECTED SOON AS
THE METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGING OF 0443UTC SEEMS TO CONFIRM IT.

RECENTLY, JOANINHA'S TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHILE
MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT. UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, JOANINHA IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST TRACK FOR NEARLY TWO DAYS, AHEAD AN
UPPER/MID MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. THEREAFTER, WITH A RIDGE BUILD EAST
OF THE SYSTEM, THE TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WILL BE PREDOMINANT,
LETTING JOANINHA GO TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AND GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE. THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS IS STILL IMPORTANT,
PRESENTING TWO PERSPECTIVES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS. THE RSMC'S
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAVE
SHOWN BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE JOANINHA CASE.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A WEAK WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THIS CONSTRAINT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT REMAINS OFFSET
BY AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEANIC
CONTENT. SO THE JOANINHA'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOVING SOUTHWARD, JOANINHA WILL ENCOUNTER A
NORTHWESTERN WINDSHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM FRIDAY ,
AND MORE CLEARLY ON SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE
ITS WEAKENING FAVORED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S.
FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE ALTITUDE
TROUGH, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BEFORE
STARTING AN EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE AT THE END OF MONDAY.=

>

2019-03-28 06:07

WTIO20 FMEE 280606 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 18 UTC:
21.9 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-28 06:04

WTIO20 FMEE 280606
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 18 UTC:
21.9 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 06 UTC:
22.7 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-28 00:55

WTIO31 FMEE 280023 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 67.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.5/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 939 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 02/04/2019 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-28 00:55

WTIO30 FMEE 280023 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.5/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/02 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-28 00:53

WTIO31 FMEE 280023
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 67.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.5/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 939 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 02/04/2019 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, SUR L'IMAGERIE TRADITIONNELLE
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME SEMBLE QUASIMENT STABLE, L'OEIL PLUS CHAUD
S'EST AGRANDI, MAIS DANS LE MEME TEMPS, L'ANNEAU DE SOMMETS NUAGEUX
TRES FROIDS S'EST GLOBALEMENT MAINTENU, SEULS APPARAISSENT MAINTENANT
QUELQUES INDICES D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DANS LE PANACHE
DE CIRRUS.
LE DT BRUT CONTINUE D'OSCILLER ENTRE 5.5 ET 6. AUSSI, L'INTENSITA
EST MAINTENUE A 100 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LA MOYENNE EN 3H DES DT BRUTS
ET PROCHE DE L'ANALYSE DU SATCON.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 89 ET 37 GHZ WINDSAT DE 2146Z CONFIRME
L'AGRANDISSEMENT DE L'OEIL ET MONTRE UN MUR COMPLET, MAIS AFFAIBLI
DANS SA PARTIE NORD.

DEPUIS 18Z LE SYSTEME A NETTEMENT RALENTI, SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST-SUD-EST DIRIGE PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST.
A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, AVEC LE DECALAGE D'UNE DORSALE SITUA E AU SUD DU
SYSTEME, JOANINHA DEVRAIT ORIENTER DAVANTAGE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST PUIS VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE
HAUTE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DES LATITUDES MOYENNES.
JOANINHA POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS BAS SUITE
A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET PROGRESSIVEMENT S'ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FAA ADE NORD-OUEST DE L'ANTICYCLONE
DIMANCHE, PUIS VERS LE SUD LUNDI AVEC LA CONSTRUCTION D'UNE DORSALE
DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME.
LA DISPERSION RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE, NOTAMMENT A COURTE ECHEANCE
EN RAISON D'UNE MAUVAISE ANALYSE DES MODELES. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE S'APPUIE SUR LE CONSENSUS DES MODELES AMERICAINS.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE DE SECTEUR OUEST. CETTE
CONTRAINTE EST PRA VUE SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT MAIS ELLE RESTE
COMPENSEE PAR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN BON
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AUSSI L'INTENSITE DU METEORE EST
PREVUE S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT DEMAIN. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER VENDREDI ET PLUS NETTEMENT SAMEDI, CE
QUI DEVRAIT ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE JOANINHA
FAVORISE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE
25S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE SYTEME EST PREVU INTERAGIR AVEC LE
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET DA BUTER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.=

>

2019-03-28 00:53

WTIO30 FMEE 280023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.5/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/02 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, ACCORDING TO MSG1 GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERIES
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS QUITE STATIONARY, THE EYE WARMER
APEARS BIGGER, BUT IN THE SAME TIME, THE ANNULAR VERY COLD CLOUDS
TOPS IS PERSISTENT.
THE RAW DT GOES ON FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.
THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS MAINTAINED AT 100 KT (10 MIN WIND)
ACCORDING WITH THE 3 HOURS DT AVERAGE AND NEAR THE SATCON ANALYSIS.
THE 2146Z 89 AND 37 GHZ WINDSAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS A BIGGER EYE, AND
SHOWS A COMPLETE EYE WALL HOWEVER WITH A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT.

SINCE 18Z JOANINHA HAS CLEARLY SLOWNED DOWN ON A EAST-SOUTH-EAST
TRACK LIKELY DUE TO A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH-EAST. FROM TOMORROW, WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, JOANINHA SHOULD CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHSOUTHEASTHWARD AHEAD AN UPPER/MID
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH.
FROM SUNDAY, AFTER ITS WEAKENING, WITH A LOWER STEERING FLOW, IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE FROM SUNDAY, THEN SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE BUILD
EASTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE IS STILL IMPORTANT EVEN AT SHORT RANGE,
DUE TO A BAD ANALYSE OF THE MODELES. THIS CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS
CONSTRAINT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE BUT REMAINS OFFSET
BY AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEANIC
CONTENT. SO THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY TOMORROW. THE
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY , AND MORE
CLEARLY ON SATURDAY, AND LEAD A STEEPER DECREASE FAVORED BY THE LACK
OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN A EXTRATROPICALISATION
PHASE.=

>

2019-03-28 00:40

WTIO20 FMEE 280018 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-28 00:15

WTIO20 FMEE 280018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/29 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-27 18:27

WTIO31 FMEE 271827 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 67.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/04/2019 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-27 18:27

WTIO30 FMEE 271827 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 67.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/01 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-27 18:26

WTIO20 FMEE 271824 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 67.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 06 UTC:
21.2 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-27 18:24

WTIO31 FMEE 271827
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 67.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/04/2019 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, SUR L'IMAGERIE TRADITIONNELLE
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME SEMBLE QUASIMENT STABLE, L'OEIL PLUS CHAUD ET
MIEUX DEFINI EN DEBUT DE PERIODE, APPARAIT ALLONGE SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES, MAIS DANS LE MEME TEMPS, L'ANNEAU DE SOMMETS NUAGEUX TRES
FROIDS S'EST RENFORCE.
LE DT BRUT CONTINUE D'OSCILLER ENTRE 5.5 ET 6. AUSSI, L'INTENSITA
EST MAINTENUE A 100 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LA MOYENNE EN 3H DES DT BRUTS
ET PROCHE DE L'ANALYSE DU SATCON.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 37 GHZ WINDSAT DE 1400Z MONTRE TOUJOURS UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DE L'OEIL EN MICRO-ONDE QUI
POURRAIT INDIQUER UNE INFLUENCE PERSISTANTE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE SECTEUR OUEST ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT QUI POURRAIT DEBUTER CETTE
NUIT.

DEPUIS 12Z LE SYSTEME SUIT A NOUVEAU UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'EST-SUD-EST DIRIGE PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
SITUEE AU NORD-EST. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, AVEC LE DECALAGE D'UNE
DORSALE SITUA E AU SUD DU SYSTEME, JOANINHA DEVRAIT ORIENTER
DAVANTAGE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST PUIS VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST A
L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DES LATITUDES
MOYENNES.
JOANINHA POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS BAS SUITE
A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET PROGRESSIVEMENT S'ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FAA ADE NORD-OUEST DE L'ANTICYCLONE
DIMANCHE, PUIS VERS LE SUD LUNDI AVEC LA CONSTRUCTION D'UNE DORSALE
DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME.
LA DISPERSION RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE, NOTAMMENT A COURTE ECHEANCE
EN RAISON DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EST DU SYSTEME QUI A INDUIT UNE MAUVAISE
ANALYSE DES MODELES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE S'APPUIE SUR LE
CONSENSUS DES MODELES AMERICAINS.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE DE SECTEUR OUEST. CETTE
CONTRAINTE EST PRA VUE SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT MAIS ELLE RESTE
COMPENSEE PAR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN BON
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AUSSI L'INTENSITE DU METEORE EST
PREVUE S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT CETTE NUIT ET DEMAIN. LE CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER VENDREDI ET PLUS NETTEMENT
SAMEDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE
JOANINHA FAVORISE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU
SUD DE 25S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE SYTEME EST PREVU INTERAGIR AVEC
LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET DA BUTER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.=

>

2019-03-27 18:24

WTIO30 FMEE 271827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 67.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/01 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, ACCORDING TO MSG1 GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERIES
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS QUITE STATIONARY, THE EYE BETTER
DEFINED AND WARMER AT THE BEGINING OF THE PERIOD, APEARS ELONGATED ON
THE LAST IMAGES, BUT IN THE SAME TIME, THE ANNULAR VERY COLD CLOUDS
TOPS HAS STRENTHENED. THE RAW DT GOES ON FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 5.5 AND
6.
THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS MAINTAINED AT 100 KT (10 MIN WIND)
ACCORDING WITH THE 3 HOURS DT AVERAGE AND NEAR THE SATCON ANALYSIS.
THE 1400Z 37 GHZ WINDSAT IMAGERY SHOWS ALWAYS A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE MICROWAVE WAVE FEATURE THAT COULD
INDICATE AN PERSISTENT INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
AND A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THIS NIGHT.

SINCE 12Z JOANINHA FOLLOWS AGAIN A TRACK TOWARDS EAST-SOUTH-EAST
LIKELY DUE TO A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST. FROM
TOMORROW, WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, JOANINHA SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHSOUTHEASTHWARD AHEAD AN UPPER/MID MID-LATITUDES TROUGH.
FROM SUNDAY, AFTER ITS WEAKENING, WITH A LOWER STEERING FLOW, IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE FROM SUNDAY, THEN SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE BUILD
EASTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE IS STILL IMPORTANT EVEN AT SHORT RANGE,
DUE TO THE EASTHWARDS TRACK INDUCING A BAD ANALYSE OF THE MODELES.
THIS CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS
CONSTRAINT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE BUT REMAINS OFFSET
BY AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEANIC
CONTENT. SO THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THIS NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
FRIDAY , AND MORE CLEARLY ON SATURDAY, AND LEAD A STEEPER DECREASE
FAVORED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. FROM SUNDAY,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN A
EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.=

>

2019-03-27 18:23

WTIO20 FMEE 271824
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 67.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 06 UTC:
21.2 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 18 UTC:
21.8 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-27 12:44

WTIO31 FMEE 271212 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 66.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/04/2019 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0- CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-27 12:44

WTIO30 FMEE 271212 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/01 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0- CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-27 12:43

WTIO31 FMEE 271212
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 66.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/04/2019 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0- CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE SYSTEME S'EST DE NOUVEAU
INTENSIFIA . L'IMAGERIE TRADITIONNELLE MONTRE UN OEIL MIEUX DEFINI ET
DE PLUS EN PLUS CHAUD. DEPUIS MAINTENANT 0130Z, LE DT BRUT OSCILLE
ENTRE 5.5 ET 6. AUSSI, L'INTENSITA A A TA ELEVEE A 100 KT EN ACCORD
AVEC LA MOYENNE EN 3H DES DT BRUTS ET AVEC L'ANALYSE DE PGTW.
MAIS L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 89 GHZ AMSR2 DE 0919Z MONTRE UNE FAIBLESSE
DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DE L'OEIL EN MICRO-ONDE QUI POURRAIT
INDIQUER UNE INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
SECTEUR OUEST ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT QUI POURRAIT DEBUTER LA NUIT
PROCHAINE.
JOANINHA A ADOPTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS EST QUE PREVUE. AUSSI LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE S'EST DECALEE PLUS A L'EST QUE LE BULLETIN
PRECEDENT POUR LES PREMIERES A CHEANCES.

LE SYSTEME SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST A
L'EST-SUD-EST DIRIGE PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU
NORD-EST. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, AVEC LE DECALAGE D'UNE DORSALE SITUA E
AU SUD DU SYSTEME, JOANINHA DEVRAIT ORIENTER DAVANTAGE SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD-EST PUIS VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE
HAUTE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DES LATITUDES MOYENNES. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, JOANINHA POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS
BAS SUITE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET PROGRESSIVEMENT S'ORIENTER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FAA ADE NORD-OUEST DE
L'ANTICYCLONE.
LA DISPERSION RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE, NOTAMMENT A COURTE ECHEANCE.
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE S'APPUIE SUR LE CONSENSUS DES MODELES
AMERICAINS.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE DE SECTEUR OUEST. CETTE
CONTRAINTE EST PRA VUE SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT MAIS ELLE RESTE
COMPENSEE PAR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN BON
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AUSSI L'INTENSITE DU METEORE EST
PREVUE S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET DEMAIN. A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE
RENFORCER ET ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE JOANINHA
FAVORISE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE
25S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE SYTEME EST PREVU INTERAGIR AVEC LE
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET DA BUTER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.=

>

2019-03-27 12:43

WTIO30 FMEE 271212
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/01 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0- CI=6.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, JOANINHA HAS STRENGTHENED AGAIN. MSG1
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERIES SHOW AN EYE BETTER DEFINED AND WARMER AND
WARMER. SINCE 0130Z, THE RAW DT HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.
THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT HAS RAISED AT 100 KT (10 MIN WIND) ACCORDING
WITH THE 3 HOURS DT AVERAGE AND WITH THE PGTW ANALYSIS.
BUT, 0919Z 89 GHZ AMSR2 IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE MICROWAVE WAVE FEATURE THAT COULD
INDICATE AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
AND A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM NEXT NIGHT.
JOANINHA HAS TRACKED MORE EASTWARD THAN FORESCASTED. SO THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED MORE EASTWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.

JOANINHA FOLLOWS A TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTH-EAST LIKELY
DUE TO A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST. FROM
TOMORROW, WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, JOANINHA SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD AN UPPER/MID MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. FROM
SUNDAY, AFTER ITS WEAKENING, WITH A LOWER STEERING FLOW, IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE.
THE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE IS STILL IMPORTANT EVEN AT SHORT RANGE.
THIS CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS
CONSTRAINT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE BUT REMAINS OFFSET
BY AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEANIC
CONTENT. SO THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY NEXT NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. FROM FRIDAY, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEAD A STEEPER DECREASE FAVORED BY THE
LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN A
EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.=

>

2019-03-27 12:43

WTIO20 FMEE 271207 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

>

2019-03-27 12:04

WTIO20 FMEE 271207
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 00 UTC:
20.5 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 12 UTC:
21.1 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-27 07:11

WTIO31 FMEE 270611 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 66.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 947 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/04/2019 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-27 07:11

WTIO30 FMEE 270611 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/01 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-27 07:08

WTIO31 FMEE 270611
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 66.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 947 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/04/2019 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE SYSTEME A CONNU UNE NOUVELLE
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION. EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, L'OEIL EST DEVENU DE
MIEUX EN MIEUX DEFINI ET S'EST BIEN RECHAUFFA . EN CONSEQUENCE,
L'INTENSITA EST RA HAUSSA E A 95 KT (VENT 10MIN), CONFORME A LA
MOYENNE SUR 3H DES NOMBRES DT MAIS LEGEREMENT INFERIEURE AU SATCON DE
0211Z (112 KT VENT 1MIN).

JOANINHA SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST-SUD-EST
DIRIGEE PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST.
A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, AVEC LE DECALAGE D'UNE DORSALE SITUA E AU SUD DU
SYSTEME, JOANINHA DEVRAIT ORIENTER DAVANTAGE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST PUIS VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE
HAUTE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DES LATITUDES MOYENNES. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, JOANINHA POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS
BAS SUITE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET PROGRESSIVEMENT S'ORIENTER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FAA ADE NORD-OUEST DE
L'ANTICYCLONE.
LA DISPERSION RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE DES 48H DE PREVISION. LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE A PEU EVOLUE DEPUIS LE RA SEAU PRECEDENT ET
S'APPUIE SUR LE CONSENSUS DES MODELES AMERICAINS.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE DE SECTEUR OUEST. CETTE
CONTRAINTE EST PRA VUE SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT A PARTIR
D'AUJOURD'HUI MAIS ELE RESTE COMPENSEE PAR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN BON POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AUSSI
L'INTENSITE DU METEORE EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT LA NUIT
PROCHAINE ET DEMAIN. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE RENFORCER ET ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE JOANINHA FAVORISE PAR LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE SYTEME
EST PREVU INTERAGIR AVEC LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET DA BUTER UNE PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.=

>

2019-03-27 07:08

WTIO30 FMEE 270611
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/01 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, JOANINHA HAS STRENGTHENED AGAIN. MSG1
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERIES SHOW AN EYE BETTER AND BETTER DEFINED AND
WARMER AND WARMER. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT HAS
RAISED AT 95 KT (10 MIN WIND) ACCORDING WITH THE 3 HOURS DT AVERAGE
BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 0211Z SATCON ESTIMATION (112 KT 1MIN WIND).

JOANINHA FOLLOWS A TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST LIKELY DUE TO A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST. FROM TOMORROW, WITH
THE EASTWARD SHIFTING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM, JOANINHA SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD AN UPPER/MID MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. FROM
SUNDAY, AFTER ITS WEAKENING, WITH A LOWER STEERING FLOW, IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE.
THE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE IS STILL IMPORTANT EVEN AT SHORT RANGE.
THIS CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BASED ON
THE US CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS
CONSTRAINT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE FROM TODAY BUT
REMAINS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND
GOOD OCEANIC CONTENT. SO THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
NEXT NIGHT AND TOMORROW. FROM FRIDAY, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEAD A STEEPER DECREASE
FAVORED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. FROM SUNDAY,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN A
EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.=

>

2019-03-27 06:09

WTIO20 FMEE 270609 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 947 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

>

2019-03-27 06:06

WTIO20 FMEE 270609
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 947 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 18 UTC:
20.4 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 06 UTC:
20.8 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-27 01:00

WTIO31 FMEE 270043 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 65.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 947 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 370 SO: 310 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0- CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-27 01:00

WTIO30 FMEE 270043 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 65.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 370 SW: 310 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-27 00:57

WTIO31 FMEE 270043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 65.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 947 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 370 SO: 310 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 01/04/2019 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0- CI=5.5+

DEPUIS 18Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE JOANINHA A CONTINUE DE SE
DEGRADER AVEC UN OEIL MAL DEFINI ENCORE PAR MOMENT VISIBLE.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME POURRAIT S'EXPLIQUER PAR LE DEMARRAGE
D'UNE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL COMME POURRAIT INDIQUER
LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2108Z ET GMI 2241Z AINSI
QUE LE PRODUIT MPERC DU CIMSS. EN EFFET UNE DEUXIEME BANDE CONVECTIVE
SEMBLE ENTOURER COMPLETEMENT LE MUR INITIAL FRAGILISE DANS LE SECTEUR
OUEST. LES PROCHAINES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DEVRAIT PERMETTRE DE
CONFIRMER OU NON L'ERC.

JOANINHA SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST
PROBABLEMENT DUE A L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
SITUEE AU NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME A COMMENCE A RALENTIR AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT TEMPORAIRE D'UNE PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU
SUD. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER AU
SUD-SUD-EST AVEC L'EVACUATION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, JONANINHA POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
PLUS BAS SUITE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET PROGRESSIVEMENT S'ORIENTER
VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DE L'ANTICYCLONE.
LA DISPERSION RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE DES 48H DE PREVISION AVEC LE
MODELE EUROPEEN TOUJOURS PLUS LENT DANS SON DEPLACEMENT ET UN
COMPORTEMENT ASSEZ DIFFERENT AU DELA PAR RAPPORT AUX MODELES
AMERICAINS. LE MODELE ANGLAIS PERFORMANT CES DERNIERS JOURS QUANT A
LUI PROPOSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN PLUS AU NORD MAIS QUI NE SEMBLE PAS
CORRESPONDRE AU MOUVEMENT OBSERVE CES DERNIERES HEURES.

SI UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST EFFECTIVEMENT EN
COURS, UNE PHASE DE REINTENSIFICATION EST THEORIQUEMENT POSSIBLE A LA
FIN DE CE CYCLE. CEPENDANT L'ENVIRONEMENT EST PREVUE DEVENIR DE PLUS
EN PLUS HOSTILE, LIMITANT A PRIORI CE POTENTIEL. DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS, LA CONTRAINTE D'OUEST VA SE MAINTENIR DANS LES PROCHAINS
JOURS, MAIS L'EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD ET LE BON
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT LIMITER LA DIMINUTION DU VENT MAX.
VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE
RENFORCER ET ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE JOANINHA.
L'EXTRATROPICALISATION DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER RENFORCEE PAR LA NETTE
DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S.=

>

2019-03-27 00:57

WTIO30 FMEE 270043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 65.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 370 SW: 310 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/01 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5+

SINCE 18Z, JOANINHA CLOUD PATTERN KEPT ON DECAYING WITH A RAGGED EYE
SOMETIMES VISIBLE ON IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAKENING MAY BE EXPLAINED BY
THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS SUGGESTED BY 2108Z AMSR2
AND 2241Z GMI AS WELL AS THE CIMSS MPERC GUIDANCE. INDEED, A NEW
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS ALL AROUND THE INITIAL EYEWALL WHICH IS
WEAKENED ON ITS WESTERN SIDE. FOLLOWING MICROWAVES SHOULD HELP IN
ASSESSING WHETHER OR NOT AN ERC IS ON.

JOANINHA FOLLOWS A TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST LIKELY DUE TO A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST. THE SYSTEM STARTED TO
SLOW DOWN AGAIN WITH THE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BEND
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD WITH THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE. AT LONGER RANGE,
AFTER ITS WEAKENING, WITH A LOWER STEERING FLOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
THE SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IS STILL IMPORTANT EVEN AT SHORT
RANGE. IFS KEEP ON FORECASTING A SLOWER MOTION AT FIRST AND THEN A
WESTERN TRACK IN COMPARISON WITH THE AMERICAN GUIDANCE. ENGLISH MODEL
WHICH PERFORMED WELL LASTLY SUGGEST A NORTHERN TRACK WHICH DO NOT
ALREADY MATCH WITH CURRENT TREND.

IF AN ERC IS CURRENTLY ONGOING, A REDEEPENING PHASE IS THEORETICALLY
POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE CYCLE. HOWEVER WITH AN INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THIS SCENARIO MAY NOT BE LIKELY. FIRST THE
WESTERLY CONSTRAINT WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE NEXT DAY. EXCELLENT
UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEANIC CONTENT SHOULD LIMIT
THE DECAY AT FIRST. ON FRIDAY, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEAD A STEEPER DECREASE. JOANINHA
EXTRATROPICALISATION SHOULD THEN START, FAVORED BY THE LACK OF
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S.=

>

2019-03-27 00:40

WTIO20 FMEE 270037 RRA
.............CORRECTIVE...............
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 947 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 65.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE

>

2019-03-27 00:40

WTIO20 FMEE 270028 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 947 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 65.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE

>

2019-03-27 00:34

WTIO20 FMEE 270037 CCA
*************CORRECTIVE***************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 947 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 65.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-27 00:25

WTIO20 FMEE 270028
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 947 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 65.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/28 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-26 19:43

WTIO31 FMEE 261839 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 65.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 370 SO: 310 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5- CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-26 19:43

WTIO30 FMEE 261839 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 65.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 370 SW: 310 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5- CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-26 19:40

WTIO31 FMEE 261839
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 65.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 370 SO: 310 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 31/03/2019 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5- CI=6.0-

DEPUIS 12Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE JOANINHA S'EST DEGRADEE AVEC
LA DISPARITION PROGRESSIVE DE L'OEIL EN IMAGERIE IR. LES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX RESTENT PAR CONTRE PARTICULIEREMENT FROIDS DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (WINDSAT 1418Z) NE MONTRENT
PAS D'EVOLUTION MAJEURE DE LA STRUCTURE EN 37GHZ. CEPENDANT EN 89GHZ,
LA PASSE AMSU DE 1642Z SEMBLE INDIQUER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL DANS LE DEMI CERCLE OUEST. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT S'EXPLIQUE PEUT
ETRE PAR LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE.

JOANINHA SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST
PROBABLEMENT DUE A L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
SITUEE AU NORD-EST. DEMAIN LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU RALENTIR
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT TEMPORAIRE D'UNE PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
SITUEE AU SUD. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER
AU SUD-SUD-EST AVEC L'EVACUATION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, JONANINHA POURRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
PLUS BAS SUITE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET PROGRESSIVEMENT S'ORIENTER
VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DE L'ANTICYCLONE.
LA DISPERSION RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE DES 48H DE PREVISION AVEC LE
MODELE EUROPEEN TOUJOURS PLUS LENT DANS SON DEPLACEMENT ET UN
COMPORTEMENT ASSEZ DIFFERENT AU DELA PAR RAPPORT AUX MODELES
AMERICAINS. LE MODELE ANGLAIS PERFORMANT CES DERNIERS JOURS QUANT A
LUI PROPOSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN PLUS AU NORD MAIS QUI NE SEMBLE PAS
CORRESPONDRE AU MOUVEMENT OBSERVE CES DERNIERES HEURES.

L'EVOLUTION RECENTE DE JOANINHA SEMBLE INDIQUER QUE LA PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A COMMENCE. LA CONTRAINTE D'OUEST VA SE MAINTENIR
DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, MAIS L'EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
COTE SUD ET LE BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT LIMITER LA DIMINUTION
DU VENT MAX. VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT
NETTEMENT SE RENFORCER ET ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE
JOANINHA. L'EXTRATROPICALISATION DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER RENFORCE PAR
LA NETTE DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S.=

>

2019-03-26 19:40

WTIO30 FMEE 261839
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 65.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 370 SW: 310 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/31 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5- CI=6.0-

SINCE 12Z, JOANINHA CLOUD PATTERN DECAYED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EYE IN IR IMAGERY. CLOUD TOPS ARE ON THE
CONTRARY PARTICULARLY COLD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. 37GHZ
MICROWAVE DATA (1418Z WINDSAT) DO NOT SHOW SOME MAJOR CHANGE IN THE
INNER STRUCTURE. HOWEVER IN 89GHZ, THE 1642Z AMSU SWATH INDICATES
THAT THE WESTERN EYEWALL IS WEAKENED. THIS COULD BE THE CONSEQUENCE
OF A WESTERLY MIDTROPOSHERIC CONSTRAINT.

JOANINHA FOLLOWS A TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST LIKELY DUE TO A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST. TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM MAY
SLOW DOWN AGAIN WITH THE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BEND
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD WITH THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE. AT LONGER RANGE,
AFTER ITS WEAKENING, WITH A LOWER STEERING FLOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
THE SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IS STILL IMPORTANT EVEN AT SHORT
RANGE. IFS KEEP ON FORECASTING A SLOWER MOTION AT FIRST AND THEN A
WESTERN TRACK IN COMPARISON WITH THE AMERICAN GUIDANCE. ENGLISH MODEL
WHICH PERFORMED WELL LASTLY SUGGEST A NORTHERN TRACK WHICH DO NOT
ALREADY MATCH WITH CURRENT TREND.

JOANINHA RECENT EVOLUTION, SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT HAS STARTED ITS
WEAKENING PHASE. THE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY. EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEANIC
CONTENT SHOULD LIMIT THE DECAY AT FIRST. ON FRIDAY, THE
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCRESAE SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEAD A
STEEPER DECREASE. JOANINHA EXTRATROPICALISATION SHOULD THEN START,
FAVORED BY THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S.=

>

2019-03-26 18:23

WTIO20 FMEE 261824 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 65.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 66.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-26 18:21

WTIO20 FMEE 261824
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 65.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 66.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 18 UTC:
20.6 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-26 13:21

WTIO31 FMEE 261322 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-26 13:21

WTIO30 FMEE 261322 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

>

2019-03-26 13:18

WTIO31 FMEE 261322
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 31/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0-

EN IMAGERIE IR RENFORCE, L'ANNEAU DE SOMMETS TRES FROIDS S'EST BIEN
RENFORCE SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC UN OEIL PLUS CHAUD ET
PRESENTANT UNE MEILLEURE DEFINITION BIEN QUE TEMPORAIREMENT ALLONGE,
TRADUISANT UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION.

JOANINHA SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST (CAP
MOYEN) AVEC UN CAP UN PLEU PLUS EN DIRECTION DE L'EST DEPUIS 06Z.
CELA EST PROBABLEMENT DUE A L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS
ANTAGONISTES : UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE (DPE) EST SITUEE AU
NORD-EST AVEC UNE EXTENSION VERS L'OUEST QUI AUTORISE UN CAP
TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS EST. UNE PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE (DST) EST
SITUEE AU SUD ET PROBABLEMENT A L'ORIGINE DE LA FAIBLE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. ALORS QUE LA DPE SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST ET QUE LA DST
SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, UN LENT MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS.
LA DISPERSION PARMI LES TRAJECTOIRES PREVUES S'EST NOTABLEMENT
REDUIT, AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DES DERNIERS RUN D'IFS DE LA MAJORITE
DES MODELEES TOUT EN RESTANT NEANMOINS TROP FAIBLE EN INTENSITE ET EN
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SE BASE SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES MEILLEURS PERFORMEURS HABITUELS.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES MALGRE LA
PRESENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST QUI A EU TENDANCE A AUGMENTE TOUT
EN ETANT ENCORE ACCEPTABLE. UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE
SUD ET UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT PERMETTRE ENCORE UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFIATION DANS LES PROCHAINS HEURES. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
EST PROCHE DE HWRF AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H PUIS SE RAPPROCHE DE
ICNW PAR LA SUITE.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT ASSOCIE A UN NET ASSECHEMENT DE LA MASSE
D'AIR ENVIRONNEMENTALE ET UNE BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE
22S. UNE TENDANCE GRADUELLE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE A PARTIR DE LA. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, JOANINHA POURRAIT INTERAGIR
AVEC UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST ET ENTAMER UNE
PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.

JOANINHA EST PASSE AU PLUS PRES DANS LE NORD-EST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES A
ENVIRON 80 KM EN FIN DE MATINEE.
MALGRE L'ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME, DU FAIT DE L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME ET DE SON LENT DEPLACEMENT, LES CONDITIONS NE DEVRAIENT
S'AMELIORER QUE LENTEMENT EN COURS DE JOURNEE
LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE LES
RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-26 13:18

WTIO30 FMEE 261322
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/31 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

ON EIR IMAGERY, THE ANNULAR VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS CONSOLIDATE
DURING THE LAST HOURS, WITH AN EYE WARMER WITH A IMPROVING DEFINITION
HOWEVER TEMPORALY ALWAYS ALLONGATED, SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED.

JOAHNINHA FOLLOWS A TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST (LONG TREND
HEADING), WITH A MORE EASTHWARDS TREND SINCE 06Z. THIS PATTERN IS
LIKELY DUE TO A TWO ANTAGONISTIC MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOWS : A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST, HAVE A WESTWARD
EXTENSION THAT ALLOW SOME TEMPORARILY MORE EASTWARDS COMPONENT. A
WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY THE
REASON OF THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION. AS THE NER MOVE WESTWARDS AND THE
STR EASTWARDS, A GENERAL SLOW AND IRREGULAR SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK IS
STILL EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE HAS CLEARLY REDUCE WITH THE COMING
CLOSER TO THE MAIN OTHERS MODELS OF THE LAST RUNS OF IFS, REMAIMING
HOWEVER TO WEAK IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE FORECAST IS
MADE OF THE CONSENSUS THE USUALLY BEST PERFORMERS.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE DESPITE A GENERALLY
WESTERLY DEEP LAYERS SHEAR WHICH HAS SLOWLY START TO INCREASEALTHOUGH
STILL BEING LOW TO MODERATE. UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS DIVERGENCE AND
GOOD OCEANIC CONTAIN SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE DURING
THE NEXT HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS LIES
TOWARD THE HWRF SOLUTION AND THEN BECOME CLOSER TO ICNW AFTER THAT
TIME.
FROM WEDNESDAY, THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DRYER ENVIRONMENT AND A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 22S, THEREFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
START BY THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, JOANINHA MAY INTERACT
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND COULD
START AN EXTRATROPICAL PROCESS.

JOANINHA HAS MADE ITS CLOSEST POINT APPROACH TO THE NORTH-EAST OF
RODRIGUES AT A DISTANCE AROUND 80 KM AT THE END OF THE MORNING.
DESPITE THE MOVING AWAY, DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND
WEAK SPEED, CONDITIONS MAY GET BETTER VERY SLOWLY DURING TODAY.
THEREFORE THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOANINHA AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-26 12:41

WTIO20 FMEE 261225 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-26 12:22

WTIO20 FMEE 261225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
20.6 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-26 07:37

WTIO31 FMEE 260729 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 64.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SO: 440 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-26 07:37

WTIO30 FMEE 260729 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 64.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SW: 440 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-26 07:34

WTIO31 FMEE 260729
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 64.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SO: 440 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 31/03/2019 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

EN IMAGERIE IR RENFORCE, L'ANNEAU DE SOMMETS TRES FROIDS A PERSISTE
MAIS EN MONTRANT DERNIA REMENT UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-EST, DANS LE MEME TEMPS, L'OEIL QUI S'EST CONTRACTE D'APRES LES
DERNIERES DONNEES WINDSAT DE 01H48Z EST DEVENU TEMPORAIREMENT TRES
FROID AVANT DE SE RECHAUFFER A NOUVEAU RECCEMMENT AVEC UNE MEILLEURE
DEFINITION.
CETTE EVOLUTION TRADUIT LE DECALLAGE VERS L'EST ENTRE LES BASSES
COUCHES ET L'ALTITUDE NOTA NOTAMMENT SUR DES DONNA ES MICRO-ONDES
WINDSAT DE 01H48Z ET L'IMAGERY SATELITE REPONSE A LA CONTRAINTE
D'OUEST QUI A EU TENDANCE A AUGMENTE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 24H
TOUT EN ETANT ENCORE ACCEPTABLE.

JOANINHA SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST (CAP
MOYEN). CELA EST PROBABLEMENT DUE A L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX FLUX
DIRECTEURS ANTAGONISTES : UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE (DPE) EST
SITUEE AU NORD-EST AVEC UNE EXTENSION VERS L'OUEST QUI AUTORISE UN
CAP TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS EST. UNE PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE (DST)
EST SITUEE AU SUD ET PROBABLEMENT A L'ORIGINE DE LA FAIBLE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. ALORS QUE LA DPE SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST ET QUE LA DST
SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, UN LENT MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS.
IL Y A UNE DISPERSION IMPORTANTE PARMI LES TRAJECTOIRES EN PARTIE DUE
A UN MAUVAIS CALAGE DE CERTAINS MODELES HABITUELLEMENT FIABLE COMME
IFS NOTAMMENT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
MODELES AMERICAINS ET ANGLAIS QUI ONT ETE LES MEILLEURS PERFORMEURS
AVEC JOANINHA JUSQU'A PRESENT.

CES CONDITIONS ONT DE PLUS ETE LARGEMENT TEMPEREES PAR UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD ET UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST PROCHE DE HWRF AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H
PUIS SE RAPPROCHE DE ICNW PAR LA SUITE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT
ASSOCIE A UN NET ASSECHEMENT DE LA MASSE D'AIR ENVIRONNEMENTALE ET
UNE BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. UNE TENDANCE GRADUELLE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE A PARTIR DE LA. EN FIN
DE SEMAINE, JOANINHA POURRAIT INTERAGIR AVEC UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST ET ENTAMER UNE PHASE DE TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE.

JOANINHA EST EN TRAIN DE PASSER AU PLUS PRES AU NORD-EST DE L'ILE
RODRIGUES A ENVIRON 80 KM EN ETANT UN TRES DANGEREUX CYCLONE
TROPICAL. DES RAFALES DE PLUS DE 150 KM/H SONT RESSENTIES MAINTENANT
DEPUIS PLUSIEURS HEURES ET LA STATION DE PLAINE CORAIL ENREGISTRE
MAINTENANT DES VENTS DE LA FORCE OURAGAN (65 KTS EN VENT MOYEN
10-MIN). CES CONDITIONS SEVERES VONT PERDURER UNE BONNE PARTIE DE LA
JOURNEE AVEC UNE ACCENTUATION ENCORE POSSIBLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
HEURES. UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM A 1M EST POSSIBLE SUR LES
REGIONS EXPOSEES DES COTES EST ET SUD. CETTE PREVISION NE TIENT PAS
COMPTE DU SET-UP DE LA HOULE OU DES EFFETS LIES AU LAGON. LA
POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE LES
RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-26 07:34

WTIO30 FMEE 260729
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 64.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SW: 440 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/31 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

ON EIR IMAGERY, THE ANNULAR VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS CONTINUED BUT
WITH A RECENT WEAKNESS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, IN THE SAME
TIME, THE EYE HAS DECREASED ACCORDING TO THE WINDSAT DATA OF 01H48Z
AND HAS BECOME TEMPORALY VERY COLD BEFORE TO IMPROVE ITS DEFINITION
AND TEMPERATURE WITH A BETTER DEFINITION.
THIS EVOLUTION IS DUE TO THE GENERALLY WESTERLY DEEP LAYERS SHEAR
WHICH HAS SLOWLY START TO INCREASE SINCE THE PAST 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
STILL BEING LOW TO MODERATE, AND VISIBLE IN THE TILD BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL SHOWN BY THE WINDSAT DATA AND SATELITE IMAGERY.

JOAHNINHA FOLLOWS A TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST (LONG TREND
HEADING). THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY DUE TO A TWO ANTAGONISTIC MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOWS : A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTH-EAST, HAVE A WESTWARD EXTENSION THAT ALLOW SOME TEMPORARILY
MORE EASTWARDS COMPONENT. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH IS LIKELY THE REASON OF THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION. AS THE NER
MOVE WESTWARDS AND THE STR EASTWARDS, A GENERAL SLOW AND IRREGULAR
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK IS STILL EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE IS SOME LARGER THAN USUAL SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT IS
PARTLY DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION IN POSITION FROM SOME USUAL
RELIABLE MODELS (IFS NOTICEABLY). THE FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MADE BY THE US AND UK MODELS THAT WAS THE BEST PERFORMERS
SO FAR WITH JOANINHA.

THIS SLIGHTLY DETRIMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OFFSET BY ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEANIC CONTAIN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIES TOWARD THE HWRF SOLUTION
AND THEN IS CLOSE TO ICNW AFTER THAT TIME. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE
WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRYER
ENVIRONMENT AND A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL THEREFORE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD START BY THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, JOANINHA MAY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND COULD START AN EXTRATROPICAL PROCESS.

JOANINHA IS GOING TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT APPROACH TO THE NORT-EAST
OF RODRIGUES AS A VERY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AT A DISTANCE
AROUND 80 KM. GUSTS EXCEEDING 150 KM/H ARE FELT SINCE SEVERAL HOURS
OVER THE ISLAND WITH NOW HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (10-MIN WIND SPEED AT
65 KT) RECORDED AT PLAINE CORAIL. THIS SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN MOST OF THE DAY WITH STILL SOME WORSENING POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOURS. A 50CM TO 1M STORM SURGE IS FORECAST OVER EXPOSED
AREAS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORELINES. THIS PREDICTION DOES
NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE WAVE SET-UP OR THE EFFECTS RELATED TO THE
LAGOON. THEREFORE THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOANINHA AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-26 06:19

WTIO20 FMEE 260617 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 64.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 195 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/26 AT 18 UTC:
20.0 S / 65.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-26 06:16

WTIO20 FMEE 260617
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 64.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 195 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/26 AT 18 UTC:
20.0 S / 65.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 06 UTC:
20.5 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-26 01:14

WTIO31 FMEE 260043 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 63.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SO: 440 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-26 01:14

WTIO30 FMEE 260043 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 63.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SW: 440 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-26 01:11

WTIO31 FMEE 260043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 63.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SO: 440 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 31/03/2019 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

EN IMAGERIE IR RENFORCE, DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS ONT CONTINUE DE
CEINTURER UN OEIL A LA DEFINITION FLUCTUANTE (ET QUI EST DEVENU
FRANCHEMENT MAL DEFINI RECEMMENT). LA PASS SSMI DE 2237Z MONTRE QUE
LE COEUR DU SYSTEME S'EST AMELIOREE COMPARE A HIER SOIR. L'INTENSITE
FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 95 KT EN ETANT BASEE SUR UNE MOYENNE EN 3HRS DU
DT BRUT A 5.7. CELA EST LEGEREMENT EN DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES DU SATCON (QUI EST JUGE BIAISE PAR DES TROP FORTES VALEURS
DE L'ADT) MAIS CORRESPOND A UNE ESTIMATION DE 104 KT (VENTS 1-MIN) A
2104Z AVEC LE SONDEUR NPP-ATMS.

JOANINHA SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE TRES IRREGULIERE EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DU SUD-EST (CAP MOYEN) AVEC MAINTENANT UN CAP UN PEU PLUS SUD SUIVI
DEPUIS 18Z. CELA EST PROBABLEMENT DUE A UNE SITUATION EN MOYENNE
TROPO ASSEZ COMPLEXE EN TERME DE FLUX DIRECTEUR: UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE (DPE) EST SITUEE AU NORD-EST AVEC UNE EXTENSION VERS
L'OUEST QUI AUTORISE UN CAP TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS EST. UNE PETITE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE (DST) EST SITUEE AU SUD ET PROBABLEMENT A
L'ORIGINE DE LA FAIBLE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. ALORS QUE LA DPE SE
DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST ET QUE LA DST SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, UN LENT
MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. IL Y A UNE DISPERSION IMPORTANTE PARMI LES
TRAJECTOIRES EN PARTIE DUE A UN MAUVAIS CALAGE DE CERTAINS MODELES
HABITUELLEMENT FIABLE COMME IFS NOTAMMENT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SE
BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES AMERICAINS ET ANGLAIS QUI ONT ETE
LES MEILLEURS PERFORMEURS AVEC JOANINHA JUSQU'A PRESENT.

D'APRES LES DONNEES DU CIMSS, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND A EU TENDANCE A
AUGMENTE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 24H TOUT EN ETANT ENCORE ACCEPTABLE.
CES CONDITIONS ONT DE PLUS ETE LARGEMENT TEMPEREES PAR UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD ET UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST PROCHE DE HWRF AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H
PUIS SE RAPPROCHE DE ICNW PAR LA SUITE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT
ASSOCIE A UN NET ASSECHEMENT DE LA MASSE D'AIR ENVIRONNEMENTALE ET
UNE BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. UNE TENDANCE GRADUELLE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE A PARTIR DE LA. EN FIN
DE SEMAINE, JOANINHA POURRAIT INTERAGIR AVEC UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST ET ENTAMER UNE PHASE DE TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE.

JOANINHA VA PASSER AU PLUS PRES AU NORD-EST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES PLUS
TARD AUJOURD'HUI (EN MATINEE OU VERS MIDI) A MOINS DE 100 KM EN ETANT
UN TRES DANGEREUX CYCLONE TROPICAL. DES RAFALES DE PLUS DE 120 KM/H
SONT RESSENTIES MAINTENANT DEPUIS PLUSIEURS HEURES ET LA STATION DE
PLAINE CORAIL ENREGISTRE MAINTENANT DES VENTS DE LA FORCE OURAGAN (65
KTS EN VENT MOYEN 10-MIN). CES CONDITIONS SEVERES VONT PERDURER UNE
BONNE PARTIE DE LA JOURNEE AVEC UNE ACCENTUATION ENCORE POSSIBLE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM A 1M EST
POSSIBLE SUR LES REGIONS EXPOSEES DES COTES EST ET SUD. CETTE
PREVISION NE TIENT PAS COMPTE DU SET-UP DE LA HOULE OU DES EFFETS
LIES AU LAGON. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A
SUIVRE LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-26 01:11

WTIO30 FMEE 260043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 63.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SW: 440 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/31 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

ON EIR IMAGERY, VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT AROUND
AN EYE WITH FLUCTUANT DEFINITION (AND HAS RECENTLY BECOME ILL
DEFINED). SSMI IMAGERY AT 2237Z SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS IMPROVED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT
BASED ON 3HRS AVERAGE RAW DT AT 5.7. THIS IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SATCON OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THAT IS DEEMED TO HIGH DUE TO THE ADT, BUT
IS CLOSE TO A NPP-ATMS SOUNDER ESTIMATES OF 104 KT (VENTS 1-MIN) AT
2104Z.

JOAHNINHA FOLLOWS AN IRREGULAR TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST (LONG
TREND HEADING)WITH NOW AGAIN A MORE SOUTHWARDS TREND SINCE 18Z. THIS
PATTERN IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMPLEX MID-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST, THAT
HAVE A WESTWARD EXTENSION THAT ALLOW SOME TEMPORARILY MORE EASTWARDS
COMPONENT. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS
LIKELY THE REASON OF THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION. AS THE NER MOVE
WESTWARDS AND THE STR EASTWARDS, A GENERAL SLOW AND IRREGULAR
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK IS STILL EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE IS SOME LARGER THAN USUAL SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT IS
PARTLY DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION IN POSITION FROM SOME USUAL
RELIABLE MODELS (IFS NOTICEABLY). THE FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MADE BY THE US AND UK MODELS THAT WAS THE BEST PERFORMERS
SO FAR WITH JOANINHA.

ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, THE GENERALLY WESTERLY DEEP LAYERS SHEAR HAS
SLOWLY START TO INCREASE SINCE THE PAST 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH STILL BEING
LOW TO MODERATE. THIS SLIGHTLY DETRIMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
OFFSET BY ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEANIC
CONTAIN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIES TOWARD THE
HWRF SOLUTION AND THEN IS CLOSE TO ICNW AFTER THAT TIME. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DRYER ENVIRONMENT AND A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL
THEREFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD START BY THAT TIME. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, JOANINHA MAY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND COULD START AN EXTRATROPICAL
PROCESS.

JOANINHA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT APPROACH TO THE NORT-EAST OF
RODRIGUES LATER TODAY (DURING THE MORNING OR AROUND NOON) AS A VERY
DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AT A DISTANCE LESS THAT 100 KM. GUSTS
EXCEEDING 120 KM/H ARE FELT SINCE SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE ISLAND WITH
NOW HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (10-MIN WIND SPEED AT 65 KT) RECORDED AT
PLAINE CORAIL. THIS SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MOST
OF THE DAY WITH STILL SOME WORSENING POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.
A 50CM TO 1M STORM SURGE IS FORECAST OVER EXPOSED AREAS OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORELINES. THIS PREDICTION DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE WAVE SET-UP OR THE EFFECTS RELATED TO THE LAGOON.
THEREFORE THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOANINHA AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-26 00:41

WTIO20 FMEE 260030 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 63.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 195 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

2019-03-26 00:27

WTIO20 FMEE 260030
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 63.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 195 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/26 AT 12 UTC:
19.7 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
20.3 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-25 19:33

WTIO31 FMEE 251844 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 63.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SO: 440 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

>

2019-03-25 19:33

WTIO30 FMEE 251844 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SW: 440 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

>

2019-03-25 19:30

WTIO31 FMEE 251844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 63.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SO: 440 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 30/03/2019 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

JOANINHA S'EST RENFORCE DEPUIS LA SOIREE AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS
CEINTURANT UN OEIL MIEUX DEFINI QUOIQU'ETANT ENCORE PAR MOMENT
ALLONGE. L'AMSU-B DE 1703Z MONTRE UN COEUR BIEN DEFINI ET SYMETRIQUE.
TOUTES LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES SONT A 5.5 ET L'INTENSITE
FINALE EST DONC MONTEE A 90 KT FAISANT DE JOANINHA LE 8EME CYCLONE
INTENSE DE CETTE SAISON A L'OUEST DE 90E.

JOANINHA A DERIVE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST DEPUIS 12Z ET SUIT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE TRES IRREGULIERE EN DRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST (CAP
MOYEN). CETTE SITUATION EST PROBABLEMENT DUE A UNE SITUATION EN
MOYENNE TROPO ASSEZ COMPLEXE EN TERME DE FLUX DIRECTEUR: UNE DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE (DPE) EST SITUEE AU NORD-EST AVEC UNE EXTENSION
VERS L'OUEST QUI AUTORISE UN CAP TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS EST. UNE PETITE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE (DST) EST SITUEE AU SUD ET PROBABLEMENT A
L'ORIGINE DE LA FAIBLE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. ALORS QUE LE DPE SE
DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST ET QUE LA DST SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, UN LENT
MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. IL Y A UNE DISPERSION IMPORTANTE PARMI LES
TRAJECTOIRES EN PARTIE DUE A UN MAUVAIS CALAGE DE CERTAINS MODELES
HABITUELLEMENT FIABLE COMME IFS NOTAMMENT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SE
BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES AMERICAINS ET ANGLAIS QUI ONT ETE
LES MEILLEURS PERFORMEURS AVEC JOANINHA JUSQU'A PRESENT.

LE SYSTEME A SEMBLE T-IL PROFITE DE L'EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
ET DU BON POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AU VU DE LA TENDANCE
ACTUELLE, LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE POURRAIT ETRE ATTEINT
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT ASSOCIE A UN NET
ASSECHEMENT DE LA MASSE D'AIR ENVIRONNEMENTALE ET UNE BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. UNE TENDANCE GRADUELLE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE A PARTIR DE LA.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER AU PLUS PRES AU NORD-EST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES
DEMAIN (EN MATINEE PU VERS MIDI) A MOINS DE 100 KM EN ETANT UN TRES
DANGEREUX CYCLONE TROPICAL. DES RAFALES DE PLUS DE 120 KM/H SONT
RESSENTIES MAINTENANT DEPUIS PLUSIEURS HEURES ET CELA VA CONTINUER
CETTE NUIT ET UNE BONNE PARTIE DE LA JOURNEE DE DEMAIN. UNE SURCOTE
DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM A 1M EST POSSIBLE. CETTE PREVISION NE TIENT PAS
COMPTE DU SET-UP DE LA HOULE OU DES EFFETS LIES AU LAGON. LA
POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE LES
RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-25 19:30

WTIO30 FMEE 251844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/13/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SW: 440 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/30 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

JOANINHA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS CLOUDS
SEEN ON EIR IMAGERY THAT SURROUND A BETTER DEFINED, ALTHOUGH STILL
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED EYE. 1703Z AMSU-B IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED
INNER CORE. ALL SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 5.5 AND THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT MAKING JOANINHA THE EIGHTH INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OF THE SEASON WEST OF 90E.

JOAHNINHA HAS MADE SOME EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS DRIFT SINCE 12Z AND
FOLLOW AN IRREGULAR TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST (LONG TREND
HEADING). THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMPLEX MID-LEVEL STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTH-EAST, THAT HAVE A WESTWARD EXTENSION THAT ALLOW SOME
TEMPORARILY MORE EASTWARDS COMPONENT. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY THE REASON OF THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION.
AS THE NER MOVE WESTWARDS AND THE STR EASTWARDS, A GENERAL SLOW AND
IRREGULAR SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK IS STILL EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THERE IS SOME LARGER THAN USUAL SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE
THAT IS PARTLY DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION IN POSITION FROM SOME USUAL
RELIABLE MODELS (IFS NOTICEABLY). THE FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MADE BY THE US AND UK MODELS THAT WAS THE BEST PERFORMERS
SO FAR WITH JOANINHA.

THE SYSTEM APPARENTLY BENEFITED FROM THE EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND THE GOOD OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT NORTH OF 25S. GIVEN THE CURRENT
TREND, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DRYER ENVIRONMENT AND A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD START BY THAT TIME.

JOANINHA SHOULD MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT APPROACH TO THE NORT-EAST OF
RODRIGUES TOMORROW (DURING THE MORNING OR AROUND NOON) AS A VERY
DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AT A DISTANCE LESS THAT 100 KM. GUSTS
EXCEEDING 120 KM/H ARE FELT SINCE SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE ISLAND AND
ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. A
50CM TO 1M STORM SURGE IS FORECAST. THIS PREDICTION DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE WAVE SET-UP OR THE EFFECTS RELATED TO THE LAGOON.
THEREFORE THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOANINHA AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-25 18:25

WTIO20 FMEE 251824 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

2019-03-25 18:22

WTIO20 FMEE 251824
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/26 AT 06 UTC:
19.3 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/26 AT 18 UTC:
20.1 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-25 13:53

WTIO31 FMEE 251247 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 63.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SO: 330 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

>

2019-03-25 13:53

WTIO30 FMEE 251247 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 63.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SW: 330 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

>

2019-03-25 13:50

WTIO31 FMEE 251247
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 63.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SO: 330 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 30/03/2019 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

JOANINHA A CONNU UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC UN NET
REFROIDISSEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ET LA FORMATION PROGRESSIVE D'UN
OEIL DEFINI EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES (AMSR2
0932Z ET SSMI 1126Z) NE MONTRENT CEPENDANT PAS D'AMELIORATION
SENSIBLE DE LA CIRCULATION INTERNE DE BASSES COUCHES, AVEC UN OEIL UN
PEU ALLONGE EN 37GHZ.

CES DERNIERES HEURES, LE TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME A CONTINUE D'OSCILLER
AUTOUR D'UNE DIRECTION SUD-EST. JOANINHA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, UNE PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD POURRAIT
REDUIRE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET REDRESSER LE CAP A L'EST
SUD-EST. EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE, AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UN VASTE
THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT QUITTER LA
ZONE TROPICALE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SE BASE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS MODELES LES PLUS REALISTES.

LE SYSTEME A SEMBLE T-IL PROFITE DE L'EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
ET DU BON POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AU VU DE LA TENDANCE
ACTUELLE, LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE POURRAIT ETRE ATTEINT
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT ASSOCIE A UN NET
ASSECHEMENT DE LA MASSE D'AIR ENVIRONNEMENTALE ET UNE BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. IL DEVRAIT MEME SE RENFORCER SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
VENDREDI. JOANINHA DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER AU NORD-EST IMMEDIAT DE L'ILE RODRIGUES EN
DEUXIEME PARTIE DE NUIT PROCHAINE OU EN DEBUT DE MATINEE EN ETANT UN
TRES DANGEREUX CYCLONE TROPICAL. TOUTEFOIS IL EST ENCORE DIFFICILE DE
PRECISER A QUELLE DISTANCE PASSERA LE SYSTEME. EN EFFET, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE JOANINHA A SEMBLE AVOIR SUIVI DES MOUVEMENTS
TROCHOIDAUX. UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM A 1M EST POSSIBLE. CETTE
PREVISION NE TIENT PAS COMPTE DU SET-UP DE LA HOULE OU DES EFFETS
LIES AU LAGON. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A
SUIVRE LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-25 13:50

WTIO30 FMEE 251247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 63.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SW: 330 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/30 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

JOANINHA UNDERWENT A DEEPENING TODAY, WITH COLDER SUMMITS AND THE
BUILDING OF A DEFINED EYE IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY. MICROWAVE DATA (0932Z
AMSR2 AND 1126Z SSMI) DO NOT SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ELONGATED EYE IN 37GHZ.

RECENTLY, THE SYSTEM OSCILLATED AROUND SOUTH-EASTWARD MOTION.
JOANINHA SHOULD KEEP ON HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT DAYS,
STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. FROM
WEDNESDAY, A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MAY REDUCE THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND BEND THE BEARING EASTWARD. THEN, DUE TO A
BROAD TROUGH AT SOUTH, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE TROPICS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON LATEST MORE RELIABLE MODELS.

THE SYSTEM APPARENTLY BENEFITED FROM THE EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT NORTH OF 25S. GIVENT THE CURRENT TREND,
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DRYER ENVIRONMENT AND A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL.
JOANINHA IS EXPECTED THEN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY ON FRIDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER CONSTRAINT.

JOANINHA SHOULD AT THE CLOSE NORTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND LATER
TONIGHT OR IN THE EARLY MORNING AS A VERY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW FAR JOANINHA WILL BE FROM THE ISLAND
AT ITS CLOSEST. INDEED RECENT TRACK SUGGEST SOME TROCHOIDAL
MOVEMENTS. A 50CM TO 1M STORM SURGE IS FORECAST. THIS PREDICTION DOES
NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE WAVE SET-UP OR THE EFFECTS RELATED TO THE
LAGOON. THEREFORE THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOANINHA AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-25 12:44

WTIO20 FMEE 251221 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 63.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

>

2019-03-25 12:18

WTIO20 FMEE 251221
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 63.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/26 AT 00 UTC:
19.1 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/26 AT 12 UTC:
20.0 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-25 07:46

WTIO31 FMEE 250639 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 62.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SO: 330 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5.CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-25 07:46

WTIO30 FMEE 250639 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 62.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SW: 330 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5.CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-25 07:44

WTIO31 FMEE 250639
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 62.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SO: 330 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 30/03/2019 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5;CI=5.0-

LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE DE JOANINHA A PEU EVOLUE AVEC UN OEIL
DECHIQUETE VISIBLE PAR PHASE SUR LES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. LES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX SE SONT TOUTEFOIS NETTEMENT RECHAUFFES. LA PASSE WINDSAT DE
0206Z NE MONTRE PAS DE REELLE EVOLUTION PAR RAPPORT AUX PRECEDENTES
MICRO-ONDES. ETANT DONNES LES DERNIERES ANALYSE OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES ET LES DONNEES DE LA PASSE SMAP D'HIER SOIR (75KT A
1358Z), L'INTENSITE EST REAJUSTEE A 75KT.

CES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A ORIENTE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST
SUD-EST. JOANINHA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, UNE
PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD POURRAIT REDUIRE LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE, AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UN
VASTE THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
QUITTER LA ZONE TROPICALE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SE BASE
PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LES DERNIERS RUNS DES MODELES AMERICAINS ET
ANGLAIS. LE MODELE IFS PRESENTE DES LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES UN BIAIS
SIGNIFICATIF DE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD.

MALGRE UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE QUI DEMEURE EXCELLENTE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST ET UN POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT, LE
SYSTEME PEINE A S'INTENSIFIER, PEUT-A TRE EN LIEN AVEC SA STRUCTURE
INITIALE LARGE ET LA PRESENCE D'UN CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST EN
MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOPSHERE. UNE INTENSIFICATION N'EST PAS EXCLU
NOTAMMENT AU VU DES DERNIERES IMAGES JUSQU'A DEMAIN. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE RENFORCER ASSOCIE A UN
NET ASSECHEMENT DE LA MASSE D'AIR ENVIRONEMENTALE ET UNE BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. JOANINHA DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS
RAPIDEMENT.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER AU NORD-EST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES DEMAIN MATIN
EN ETANT UN DANGEREUX CYCLONE TROPICAL. LE COUP DE VENT A DEJA
ATTEINT L'ILE ET POURRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE DE
MERCREDI. TOUTEFOIS L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ENCORE MARQUEE ET IL EST
ENCORE DIFFICILE DE PRECISER A QUELLE DISTANCE PASSERA LE SYSTEME. LA
POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE LES
RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-25 07:44

WTIO30 FMEE 250639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 62.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SW: 330 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/30 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=5.0-

JOANINHA CLOUD PATTERN BARELY EVOLVED WITH A RAGGED EYE PATTERN
VISIBLE BY PHASE ON INFRARED DATA. CLOUD TOPS WARMED UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. LAST 0206Z WINDSAT SWATH DO NOT SHOW CHANGE IN
COMPARISON WITH LAST MICROWAVES. GIVEN LAST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSES AND 1358Z SMAP DATA (75KT), INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED TO 75KT.

RECENTLY, THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD. JOANINHA SHOULD KEEP
ON HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT DAYS, STEERED BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, A SMALL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MAY REDUCE THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
THEN, DUE TO A BROAD TROUGH AT SOUTH, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE
THE TROPICS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON THE LAST
AMERICAN AND ENGLISH GUIDANCE, THE IFS SHOWS VERY EARLY A STRONG
SOUTHWARD BIAS.

DESPITE THE EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE A NORMAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
NORTH OF 25S, THE SYSTEM DO NOT INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, MAYBE IN RELATION
WITH ITS INITIAL BROAD STRUCTURE OR THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER AND MID
CONSTRAINT. A DEEPENING IS POSSIBLE UP TO TOMORROW ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE LAST IMAGES. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DRYER ENVIRONMENT AND A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. JOANINHA IS EXPECTED THEN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.

JOANINHA SHOULD AT THE NORTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND TOMMOROW
MORNING AS A DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY
MEASURED AND MAY LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL IMPORTANT AND IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW FAR JOANINHA WILL BE FROM
THE ISLAND AT ITS CLOSEST. THEREFORE THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOANINHA AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
PROVIDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-25 06:32

WTIO20 FMEE 250631 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 62.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 275 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

>

2019-03-25 06:29

WTIO20 FMEE 250631
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 62.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 275 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/25 AT 18 UTC:
18.5 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/26 AT 06 UTC:
19.3 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-25 00:47

WTIO31 FMEE 250026 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 62.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 430 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SO: 240 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0-.CI=5.0+

>

2019-03-25 00:47

WTIO30 FMEE 250026 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 62.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 430 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0-.CI=5.0+

>

2019-03-25 00:45

WTIO31 FMEE 250026
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 62.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 430 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SO: 240 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 30/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0-;CI=5.0+

APRES S'ETRE BRIEVEMENT AMELIOREE, LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL DECHIQUETE
S'EST DE NOUVEAU DETERIOREE AU COURS DES 3 DERNIERES HEURES. LES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX RESTENT TRES FROIDS ET UN POINT CHAUD EST TOUJOURS
BIEN VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGERIE IR. L'IMAGE 89GHZ AMSR2 DE 2120Z MONTRE
UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION
INTERNE. L'ANALYSE DE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DU CIMSS
SUGGERE QU'UNE CONTRAINTE FAIBLE A MODEREE DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST
POURRAIT ACTUELLEMENT AFFECTER LE SYSTEME.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, UNE PETITE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD POURRAIT REDUIRE LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. LE DERNIER RUN D'IFS (ECMWF) PROPOSE MEME UN ARRET AVANT
UNE LENTE DESCENTE AU SUD, BLOQUE CONTRE CETTE DORSALE. AINSI, IL Y A
TOUJOURS DES DIFFERENCES NOTABLES D'APPREHENSION DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
DE MOYENNE TROPO PARMI LES MODELES LES PLUS FIABLES. L'INCERTITUDE
SUR LE CAP PRECIS ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DE JOANINHA RESTE DONC
RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE, NOTAMMENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI.

MALGRE LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
LES CONDITIONS RESTENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A CE SOIR : LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEMEURE EXCELLENTE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST ET LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE AU NORD DE 25S.
LE SYSTEME POURRAIT AINSI ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. CE SOIR, UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR OUEST
SE MET GRADUELLEMENT EN PLACE. ELLE DEVIENT MODEREE MARDI A L'AVANT
D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT DEPUIS LE SUD-OUEST. CEPENDANT, LA
FORCE DE CETTE CONTRAINTE FLUCTUE AU COURS DES JOURS SUIVANTS,
PENDANT QU'UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD-EST MODERE LES EFFETS DE CE CISAILLEMENT INTERMITTENT. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR A UN RYTHME LENT. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
EST BASEE SUR LE CONSENSUS ICNW.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OU SUR L'ILE RODRIGUES DANS LA
JOURNEE DE MARDI EN ETANT UN DANGEREUX CYCLONE TROPICAL. LE TEMPS VA
SE DEGRADER DURABLEMENT A PARTIR D'AUJOUR'HUI AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COUP
DE VENT, QUI POURRAIT POTENTIELLEMENT DURER JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR. IL
NE FAUT PAS SE FOCALISER SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE PRECISE: LES ERREURS
HABITUELLES DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRES NE PERMETTENT PAS ENCORE DE
DIRE SI LE SYSTEME VA PASSER A L'OUEST, A L'EST OU SUR L'ILE ETANT
DONNE LA PETITE TAILLE DE RODRIGUES. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE
TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-25 00:45

WTIO30 FMEE 250026
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 62.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 430 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/30 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0-;CI=5.0+

AFTER BRIEFLY IMPROVING, THE RAGGED EYE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
AGAIN OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS. CLOUD TOPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND A WARM
SPOT IS STILL VISIBLE ON IR IMAGERY. THE 2120Z AMSR2 89GHZ MW IMAGE
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE INNER RING OF
CONVECTION. THE CIMSS MID-LEVEL SHEAR ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD BE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM.

JOANINHA SHOULD KEEP ON HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT DAYS,
STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. FROM
WEDNESDAY, A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MAY REDUCE THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE LAST IFS (ECMWF) RUN EVEN SUGGEST A COMPLETE
STOP BEFORE A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION, BLOCKED AGAINS THIS RIDGE.
THEREFORE, THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE MOST
RELIABLE MODELS REPRESENT THE STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS.
THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE BEARING AND SPEED OF THE CYCLONE THUS
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH, ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY.

DESPITE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL CONSTRAINT, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE TO THE INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT EASTWARD. THE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT IS HIGH NORTH OF 25S. THE SYSTEM COULD THUS REACH THE STAGE
OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TONIGHT, A WEAK UPPER WESTERLY
CONSTRAINT GRADUALLY APPEARS. IT BECOMES MODERATE TUESDAY, AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH
OF THIS UPPER CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE OVER THE FOLLOWING
DAYS, WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE SHOULD MODERATE THE EFFECTS OF THIS INTERMITTENT VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. JOANINHA IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A
RELATIVELY SLOW RATE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
ICNW CONSENSUS.

JOANINHA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER RODRIGUES ISLAND ON TUESDAY AS A
DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH JOANINHA
SHOULD BEGIN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS,
WHICH MAY LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
PRECISE TRACK AS THE AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS DO NOT ALLOW TO
CURRENTLY PREDICT IF THE CYCLONE WILL PASS TO THE WEST, TO THE EAST
OR OVER THE ISLAND GIVEN THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF RODRIGUES. THEREFORE
THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JOANINHA AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-25 00:41

WTIO20 FMEE 250017 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 62.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 275 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

2019-03-25 00:15

WTIO20 FMEE 250017
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 62.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 275 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/25 AT 12 UTC:
18.3 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/26 AT 00 UTC:
18.9 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-24 18:29

WTIO31 FMEE 241818 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 62.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 430 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SO: 240 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

>

2019-03-24 18:29

WTIO30 FMEE 241818 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 62.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 430 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

>

2019-03-24 18:27

WTIO31 FMEE 241818
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 62.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 430 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SO: 240 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/03/2019 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE D'OEIL DECHIQUETE S'EST
NETTEMENT AFFIRMEE AVEC L'ENROULEMENT DE POUSSEES CONVECTIVES
PUISSANTES TOUT AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. CETTE AMELIORATION
DE LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE SE TRADUIT PAR UNE AUGMENTATION DES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE DISPONIBLES, EN ACCORD AVEC
L'ANALYSE DVORAK DU CMRS. LES IMAGES MO DE LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1417Z
MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE QUI S'AFFIRME, AVEC LA FORMATION D'UN
ANNEAU DE CONVECTION ENCORE IRREGULIER MAIS COMPLET. LA FAIBLESSE
RECURRENTE OBSERVEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST, PROBABLEMENT LIEE A LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC ENVIRONNEMENTAL, N'APPARAIT PLUS SUR CETTE
DERNIERE IMAGE.

LES DERNIERS FIXS SATELLITE DISPONIBLES CONFIRMENT UNE REPRISE DE
DEPLACEMENT LENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU REPLACEMENT
DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. CERTAINS
MODELES ONT TOUJOURS UNE POSITION ANALYSEE TROP DECALEE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST. JOANINHA DEVRAIT CONTINUER VERS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, UNE PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD POURRAIT REDUIRE LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. TOUTEFOIS, IL Y A TOUJOURS DES DIFFERENCES
NOTABLES D'APPREHENSION DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO PAR LES
MODELES LES PLUS FIABLES. IL Y A DONC TOUJOURS DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LE CAP PRECIS ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT QUE VA AVOIR LE SYSTEME A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI.

LES CONDITIONS RESTENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DEMEURE EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE.
LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE AU NORD DE 25S. IL RESTE ENVIRON
ENVIRON 24H AU SYSTEME POUR S'INTENSIFIER, CE QUI AU VU DES
AMELIORATIONS RECENTES OBSERVEES, POURRAIENT LUI SUFFIRE POUR
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI
SOIR, UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE
PUIS SE RENFORCE MARDI A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT
DEPUIS LE SUD-OUEST. UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST POURRAIT MODERER LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT SUR LE SYSTEME, QUI DEVRAIT DES LORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUTOT
LENTEMENT.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OU SUR L'ILE RODRIGUES DANS LA
JOURNEE DE MARDI EN ETANT UN DANGEREUX CYCLONE TROPICAL. C'EST UNE
SITUATION TRES SERIEUSE POUR RODRIGUES AVEC UNE PERSPECTIVE DE TEMPS
DURABLEMENT PERTURBE POUR L'ILE (ARRIVEE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE
DE DEMAIN POUVANT DURER POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'A MERCREDI). IL NE FAUT
PAS SE FOCALISER SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE PRECISE: LES ERREURS HABITUELLES
DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRES NE PERMETTENT PAS ENCORE DE DIRE SI LE
SYSTEME VA PASSER A L'OUEST, A L'EST OU SUR L'ILE ETANT DONNE LA
PETITE TAILLE DE RODRIGUES. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR
INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-24 18:27

WTIO30 FMEE 241818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 62.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 430 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/29 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE RAGGED EYE PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY GAINED
DEFINITION WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WRAPPING ALL AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IMPROVING SAT PRESENTATION IS FOLLOWED BY A
RISE IN THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE RMSC'S DVORAK ANALYSIS. THE MW IMAGES FROM 1417Z SSMIS SWATH
SHOW A STRENGTHENING INTERNAL STRUCTURE, WITH AN IRREGULAR BUT CLOSED
CONVECTION RING. THE RECURRING WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
PROBABLY LINKED TO ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR, IS NOT DISPLAYED ON THIS
IMAGE.

THE LAST SATELLITE FIXES AVAILABLE CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM BEGAN TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE STORM. SOME MODELS
HAVE STILL AN ANALYSED POSITION LOCATED TOO FAR IN THE SOUTH-WEST.
JOANINHA SHOULD KEEP ON HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT DAYS,
STEERED BY THE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY, A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH MAY REDUCE THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS REPRESENT THE
STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS. THEREFORE, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN BEARING AND SPEED OF THE CYCLONE FROM WEDNESDAY.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE TO THE INTENSIFICATION.
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD.
THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH NORTH OF 25S. THERE IS STILL A
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH, GIVEN THE
LAST OBSERVED IMPROVEMENTS, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FROM MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER
NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT APPEARS AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE COULD MODERATE THE
EFFECTS OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THUS
WEAKEN AT A RELATIVELY SLOW RATE.

JOANINHA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER RODRIGUES ISLAND ON TUESDAY AS A
DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SITUATION IS SERIOUS FOR THIS ISLAND
AS SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH JOANINHA SHOULD AFFECT THE ISLAND
FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS (SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW
AND MAY LAST ONTO WEDNESDAY). ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE
TRACK AS THE AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS DO NOT ALLOW TO CURRENTLY
PREDICT IF THE CYCLONE WILL PASS TO THE WEST, TO THE EAST OR OVER THE
ISLAND GIVEN THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF RODRIGUES. THEREFORE THE
INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOANINHA
AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-24 18:13

WTIO20 FMEE 241812 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 62.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

2019-03-24 18:10

WTIO20 FMEE 241812
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 62.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/25 AT 06 UTC:
17.9 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/25 AT 18 UTC:
18.7 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-24 15:16

WTXS51 PGTW 241500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190324141503
2019032412 22S JOANINHA 011 02 155 02 SATL 040
T000 171S 0617E 085 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
125 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 174S 0619E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 181S 0623E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 189S 0631E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 196S 0640E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 208S 0660E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 220S 0675E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 240S 0689E 080 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 260 SE QD
230 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO

>

2019-03-24 15:16

WTXS31 PGTW 241500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.4S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-24 13:29

WTIO31 FMEE 241241 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 61.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 410 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

>

2019-03-24 13:29

WTIO30 FMEE 241241 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 61.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 410 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

>

2019-03-24 13:26

WTIO31 FMEE 241241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 61.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 410 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 29/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

UN OEIL DECHIQUETTE S'EST MAINTENU SUR LES IMAGES IR ET VIS AU COURS
DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES RESTENT A
4.5/5.0 (65-80 KT) MAIS L'INTENSITE FINALE EST AUGMENTEE A 75 KT EN
SE BASANT SUR DES ESTIMATIONS RECENTES DE SATCON ET DAT A 82-87 KT
(VENTS 1-MIN) ... ET UNE FAUCHEE SMAP A 78 KT A 0149Z CE MATIN.

D'APRES L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE MSG-1, JOANINHA A REPRIS SUR UNE LENTE
TRAJECTOIRE SUD-SUD-EST AUCOURS DES 2 A 3 DERNIERES HEURES AVEC LE
REPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.
LA POSITION INITIALE DU SYSTEME EST SENSIBLEMENT PLUS AU NORD-EST QUE
LES POSITIONS DES MODELES ET A DONNE LIEU A UN REAJUSTEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE UN PEU PLUS A L'EST.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER UN PEU PLUS
VERS L'EST ALORS QUE LA DORSALE BASCULE AU NORD DU SYSTEME. UNE
PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD POURRAIT REDUIRE LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. TOUTEFOIS, IL Y A DES DIFFERENCES NOTABLES
D'APPREHENSION DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO PAR LES MODELES
LES PLUS FIABLES. IL Y A DONC TOUJOURS DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP
PRECIS ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT QUE VA AVOIR LE SYSTEME AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS.

LES CONDITIONS RESTENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DEMEURE EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE.
LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE AU NORD DE 25S. LUNDI SOIR OU PLUS
PROBABLEMENT MARDI, UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
SE MET EN PLACE CE QUI DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME. MARDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT AVEC UN
RENFORCEMENT PROGRESSIF DU CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. TOUTEFOIS CES ELEMENTS NEGATIFS POURRAIENT ETRE COMPENSES
PAR LE MAINTIEN D'UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. LE TAUX D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A DONC ETE REDUIT
QUELQUE PEU A CE MOMENT LA. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST PROCHE DU
CONSENSUS ICNW. A NOTER QUE LES MODELES REGIONAUX TELS QUE HWRF ET
AROME SUGGERENT TOUJOURS LA POSSIBILITA D'UN SYSTEME PLUS PUISSANT.
CETTE POSSIBILITE N'EST POUR L'INSTANT PAS REFLETEE DANS LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OU SUR L'ILE RODRIGUES DANS LA
JOURNEE DE MARDI EN ETANT UN DANGEREUX CYCLONE TROPICAL. C'EST UNE
SITUATION TRES SERIEUSE POUR RODRIGUES AVEC UNE PERSPECTIVE DE TEMPS
DURABLEMENT PERTURBE POUR L'ILE (ARRIVEE DU COUP DE VENT DURABLE EN
JOURNEE DE DEMAIN POUVANT DURER POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'A MERCREDI). IL
NE FAUT PAS FOCALISER SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE PRECISE: LES ERREURS
HABITUELLES DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRES NE PERMETTENT PAS ENCORE DE
DIRE SI LE SYSTEME VA PASSER A L'OUEST, A L'EST OU SUR L'ILE ETANT
DONNE LA PETITE TAILLE DE RODRIGUES. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE
TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-24 13:26

WTIO30 FMEE 241241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 61.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 410 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/29 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

A RAGGED EYE PATTERN HAS PREVAILED ON BOTH EIR AND VIS IMAGERY OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 4.5-5.0
(65-80 KT) AND THE FINAL INTENSITY IS RAISED AT 75 KT BAISED ON
RECENT SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES AT 82-87 KT (1-MIN WINDS) ... AND A
SMAP PASS AT 0149Z AT 78 KT.

BASED ON MSG-1 VIS IMAGERY, JOANINHA SEEMS TO RESUME ON A SLOW
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK OVER THE LAST 2 TO 3 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THIS HAS LED TO SOME EASTWARDS
SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BEND
EASTWARDS AS THE NER WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A SMALL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE THE SOUTH MAY REDUCE THE FORWARD MOTION BY
THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE WAY THE MOST
RELIABLE MODELS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE STEERING FLOW AT THE MID-
LEVEL. THEREFORE, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEARING AND
FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT BOTH POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH NORTH OF 25S. FROM
MONDAY EVENING OR MORE LIKELY NOW ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY
CONSTRAINT APPEARS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
STATIONARY.GRADUALLY AFTER THAT TIME, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH, BUT THIS EFFECT COULD BE OFFSET BY EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THUS, THE RATE OF THE
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN REDUCED ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOW THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW).
ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT REGIONAL MODEL AS AROME AND HWRF STILL SUGGEST
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM BUT THIS IS STILL NOT RETAINED AT
THIS TIME.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, JOANINHA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER
RODRIGUES ISLAND ON TUESDAY. THIS A SERIOUS SITUATION FOR THIS ISLAND
AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH JOANINHA HAS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FOR A LONG TIME OVER THE ISLAND (REGULAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO START TOMORROW AND MAY LAST UP TO WEDNESDAY ). ONE SHOULD
NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE TRACK AS AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS DOES
NOT ALLOW TO CURRENTLY PREDICT IF THE CYCLONE WILL PASS TO THE WEST,
TO THE EAST OR OVER THE ISLAND GIVEN THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF
RODRIGUES. THEREFORE THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JOANINHA AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-24 12:42

WTIO20 FMEE 241229 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 61.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/25 AT 00 UTC:
17.7 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-24 12:26

WTIO20 FMEE 241229
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 61.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/25 AT 00 UTC:
17.7 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/25 AT 12 UTC:
18.3 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-24 07:13

WTIO31 FMEE 240648 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 61.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 430 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-24 07:13

WTIO30 FMEE 240648 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 61.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 430 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-24 07:11

WTIO31 FMEE 240648
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 61.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 430 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/03/2019 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

SUR LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A GLOBALEMENT
PEU CHANGE. LES PREMIERES IMAGES VISIBLES MONTRENT UN OEIL MAL DEFINI
QUI ETAIT DEJA AU PREALABLE VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE FIN
DE NUIT. LA DERNIERE AMSU-B PROVENANTY DE METOP-A DE 0454Z SUGGERE
QUE LE COEUR DU SYSTEME A ENCORE DU MAL A SE CONSOLIDER. L'INTENSITE
EST MAINTENUE A 65 KT EN LIMITE BASSE DES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS
DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ET JUSTE AU-DESSUS DES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS ADT.

JOANINHA EST MAINTENANT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. AUJOURD'HUI JOANINHA
DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST AVEC LE
REPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST,
JOANINHA DEVRAIT ACCELERER LE LONG DE SA TRAJECTOIRE.
LE TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD EST DESORMAIS COHERENT PARMI LES
PREVISIONS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. LA DISPERSION EST MOINDRE AVEC
SEULEMENT ARPEGE ET UKMO COMME "OUTLIERS" (ARPEGE BEAUCOUP PLUS A
L'OUEST ET UKMO BIEN A L'EST). LA PREVISION ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET DE GFS.

LES CONDITIONS RESTENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DEMEURE EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE.
LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE AU NORD DE 23S. LUNDI SOIR, UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE CE QUI
DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. MARDI, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE.
TOUTEFOIS CES ELEMENTS NEGATIFS POURRAIENT ETRE COMPENSES PAR LE
MAINTIEN D'UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD-EST. LE TAUX D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A DONC ETE REDUIT QUELQUE PEU A CE
MOMENT LA. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST PROCHE DU CONSENSUS ICNW. A
NOTER QUE LES MODELES REGIONAUX TELS QUE HWRF ET AROME SUGGERENT
TOUJOURS LA POSSIBILITA D'UN SYSTEME PLUS PUISSANT. CETTE
POSSIBILITE N'EST POUR L'INSTANT PAS REFLETEE DANS LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE RODRIGUES DANS LA NUIT
DE LUNDI A MARDI OU MARDI MATIN EN ETANT UN DANGEREUX CYCLONE
TROPICAL. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE
LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-24 07:11

WTIO30 FMEE 240648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 61.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 430 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/29 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE. FIRST
VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A RAGGED EYE THAT WAS ALREADY VISIBLE ON
EARLIER MW PASS. LATEST AMSUB IMAGERY FROM METOP-A AT 0454Z SUGGEST
THAT THE INNER CORE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INTENSITY
IS HOLD AT 65 KT IN THE LOWER RANGE OF LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATES.

JOANINHA IS NOW QUASI-STAT BASED ON THE LATEST FIX. TODAY, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD RESUME SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY, AHEAD
OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, JOANINHA SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE.
THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN IS NOW CONSISTENT AMONGST THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE THE SPREAD HAS REDUCED WITH ONLY ARPEGE
AND UKMO AS THE MOST OUTLIERS (ARPEGE FAR TO THE WEST AND UKMO FAR TO
THE EAST). THE CURRENT TRACK IS HIGHLY WEIGHTED TOWARD A CONSENSUS
IFS-GFS.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT BOTH POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH NORTH OF 23S. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, AN UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT APPEARS AND THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY. TUESDAY, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF
THE SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, BUT THIS EFFECT COULD BE OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THUS, THE RATE OF THE WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN REDUCED
ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOW
THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW). ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT REGIONAL
MODEL AS AROME AND HWRF STILL SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM BUT THIS IS STILL NOT RETAINED AT THIS TIME.

JOANINHA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER RODRIGUES ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING AS A DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INHABITANTS ARE
INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE SITUATION AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
PROVIDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-24 06:36

WTIO20 FMEE 240635 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 61.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/24 AT 18 UTC:
17.5 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-24 06:33

WTIO20 FMEE 240635
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 61.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/24 AT 18 UTC:
17.5 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/25 AT 06 UTC:
18.1 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-24 00:41

WTIO31 FMEE 240012 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 61.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-24 00:41

WTIO30 FMEE 240012 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 61.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-24 00:41

WTIO20 FMEE 240010 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 61.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

2019-03-24 00:10

WTIO31 FMEE 240012
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/13/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 61.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 29/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
AMELIOREE. LES IMAGES EN INFRA-ROUGE MONTRENT LA FORMATION D'UN POINT
CHAUD AU SEIN D'UNE SRUCTURE D'OEIL DECHIQUETE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC
ELEVEE AU STADE INFERIEUR DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE EST EN ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION SATCON DE 2052Z.

JOANINHA CONTINUE DE PROGRESSER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
AUJOURD'HUI JOANINHA DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST AVEC
LE REPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG PAR LE
SUD-OUEST, JOANINHA DEVRAIT ACCELERER LE LONG DE SA TRAJECTOIRE.
LE TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD EST DESORMAIS COHERENT PARMI LES
PREVISIONS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. CEPENDANT, LA DISPERSION RESTE
RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE AVEC CERTAINS MODELES QUI PROPOSENT UN
RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST PLUS PROGRESSIF ET PLUS TARDIF, DONT IFS
(ECMWF).

LES CONDITIONS RESTENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DEMEURE EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE.
LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE AU NORD DE 23S. LUNDI SOIR, UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE CE QUI
DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. MARDI, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE
METEORE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS LES EFFETS COMBINA S DU
CISAILLEMENT ASSOCIA A UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE RODRIGUES DANS LA NUIT
DE LUNDI A MARDI OU TOT MARDI MATIN AU STADE MAXIMAL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE
LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-24 00:10

WTIO30 FMEE 240012
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/13/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 61.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/29 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. INFRARED IMAGERIES
SHOW THE FORMATION OF A WARM POINT WITHIN A RAGGED EYE. SO INTENSITY
IS RAISED AT THE LOWER STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 2052 SATCON
ESTIMATION.

JOANINHA KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS AT A SLOW PACE. TODAY,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST,
JOANINHA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE.
THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN IS NOW CONSISTENT AMONGST THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH FROM MONDAY, AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH MORE
GRADUAL AND LATER SOUTHEASWARD TURN, LIKE IFS (ECMWF).

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT BOTH POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH NORTH OF 23S. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, AN UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT APPEARS AND THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY. TUESDAY, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR
ASSOCIATED TO DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR.

JOANINHA SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO RODRIGUES ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMUM STAGE. THE INHABITANTS ARE
INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE SITUATION AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
PROVIDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-24 00:09

WTXS51 PGTW 232100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190323194933
2019032318 22S JOANINHA 008 02 200 03 SATL 045
T000 168S 0618E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD
135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 172S 0617E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 176S 0618E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 181S 0620E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 188S 0624E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 201S 0641E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 209S 0661E 095 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 222S 0681E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD
170 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

>

2019-03-24 00:07

WTIO20 FMEE 240010
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 61.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/24 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/25 AT 00 UTC:
17.8 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-24 00:04

WTXS51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190323194933
2019032318 22S JOANINHA 008 02 200 03 SATL 045
T000 168S 0618E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 172S 0617E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 176S 0618E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 181S 0620E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 188S 0624E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 201S 0641E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 209S 0661E 095 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 222S 0681E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.2S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.6S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.1S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.1S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.9S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.2S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032312 165S 619E 60
2219032318 168S 618E 65
2219032318 168S 618E 65
2219032318 168S 618E 65
NNNN

>

2019-03-23 21:43

WTXS31 PGTW 232100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.2S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-23 21:38

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.2S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.6S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.1S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.1S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.9S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.2S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 231745Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBLONG LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A WEAKER BAND OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
4.0-4.5 (65-77 KNOTS) AS WELL AS A 231715Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62
KNOTS. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
TO 105 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 96, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE
ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 120. TC 22S IS
SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THEN DIVERGES SHARPLY WITH A
290NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z,
241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-23 18:08

WTIO31 FMEE 231808 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 61.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2019-03-23 18:08

WTIO30 FMEE 231808 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 61.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2019-03-23 18:06

WTIO31 FMEE 231808
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 61.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DE FORTES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SE
SONT PRODUITES PRES DU CENTRE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS.
CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 91GHZ DE 1431Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE
INTERNE ASSEZ LARGE AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE
L'OEIL EN 91 GHZ. AUSSI L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITA RESTE EVALUA E A 55
KT CE QUI EST COHERENT AVEC L'ESTIMATION SATCON BASA E SUR LA
MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 1431Z.

JOANINHA CONTINUE DE PROGRESSER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
DEMAIN DIMANCHE, LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE
SUD-EST AVEC LE REPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN
THALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST, JOANINHA DEVRAIT ACCELERER LE LONG DE SA
TRAJECTOIRE.
LE TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD EST DESORMAIS COHERENT PARMI LES
PREVISIONS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. CEPENDANT, LA DISPERSION RESTE
RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE AVEC CERTAINS MODELES QUI PROPOSENT UN
RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST PLUS PROGRESSIF ET PLUS TARDIF, DONT IFS
(ECMWF).

LES CONDITIONS RESTENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DEMEURE EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE.
LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE AU NORD DE 23S. LUNDI SOIR, UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE CE QUI
DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. MARDI, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE
METEORE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS LES EFFETS COMBINA S DU
CISAILLEMENT ASSOCIA A UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE RODRIGUES DANS LA NUIT
DE LUNDI A MARDI OU TOT MARDI MATIN AU STADE MAXIMAL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE
LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-23 18:06

WTIO30 FMEE 231808
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 61.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 370 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURRED NEAR
THE CENTER WITH VERY COLD TOP CLOUDS. HOWEVER, 1431Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERNAL STRUCTURE RATHER WIDE WITH A WEAKNESS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT EYE FEATURE. SO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT REMAINS STATIONARY AT 55 KT THAT IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE SATCON ESTIMATE BASED ON THE 1431Z SSMIS IMAGERY.

JOANINHA KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS AT A SLOW PACE.
TOMORROW (SUNDAY), THE STORM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, JOANINHA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE.
THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN IS NOW CONSISTENT AMONGST THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH FROM MONDAY, AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH MORE
GRADUAL AND LATER SOUTHEASWARD TURN, LIKE IFS (ECMWF).

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT BOTH POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH NORTH OF 23S. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, AN UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT APPEARS AND THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY. TUESDAY, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR
ASSOCIATED TO DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR.

JOANINHA SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO RODRIGUES ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMUM STAGE. THE INHABITANTS ARE
INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE SITUATION AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
PROVIDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-23 18:04

WTIO20 FMEE 231807
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 61.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/24 AT 06 UTC:
17.3 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/24 AT 18 UTC:
17.7 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-23 17:50

WTIO31 FMEE 231717 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 61.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SO: 250 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2019-03-23 17:50

WTIO30 FMEE 231717 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 61.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SW: 250 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2019-03-23 17:48

WTIO31 FMEE 231717
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 61.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SO: 250 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DE FORTES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SE
SONT PRODUITES PRES DU CENTRE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS.
CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 91GHZ DE 1431Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE
INTERNE ASSEZ LARGE AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE
L'OEIL EN 91 GHZ. AUSSI L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITA RESTE EVALUA E A 55
KT CE QUI EST COHERENT AVEC L'ESTIMATION SATCON BASA SUR LA
MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 1431Z.

JOANINHA CONTINUE DE PROGRESSER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
DEMAIN DIMANCHE, LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE
SUD-EST AVEC LE REPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN
THALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST, JOANINHA DEVRAIT ACCELERER LE LONG DE SA
TRAJECTOIRE.
LE TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD EST DESORMAIS COHERENT PARMI LES
PREVISIONS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. CEPENDANT, LA DISPERSION RESTE
RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE AVEC CERTAINS MODELES QUI PROPOSENT UN
RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST PLUS PROGRESSIF ET PLUS TARDIF, DONT IFS
(ECMWF).

LES CONDITIONS RESTENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DEMEURE EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE.
LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE AU NORD DE 23S. LUNDI SOIR, UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE CE QUI
DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. MARDI, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE
METEORE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS LES EFFETS COMBINA S DU
CISAILLEMENT ASSOCIA A UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE RODRIGUES DANS LA NUIT
DE LUNDI A MARDI OU TOT MARDI MATIN AU STADE MAXIMAL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE
LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-23 17:48

WTIO30 FMEE 231717
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 61.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SW: 250 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURRED NEAR
THE CENTER WITH VERY COLD TOP CLOUDS. HOWEVER, 1431Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERNAL RATHER WIDE WITH A WEAKENESS WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT EYE FEATURE. SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT REMAINS STATIONARY AT 55 KT THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SATCON ESTIMATE BASED ON THE 1431Z SSMIS IMAGERY.

JOANINHA KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS AT A SLOW PACE.
TOMORROW (SUNDAY), THE STORM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, JOANINHA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE.
THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN IS NOW CONSISTENT AMONGST THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH FROM MONDAY, AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH MORE
GRADUAL AND LATER SOUTHEASWARD TURN, LIKE IFS (ECMWF).

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT BOTH POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH NORTH OF 23S. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, AN UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT APPEARS AND THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY. TUESDAY, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR
ASSOCIATED TO DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR.

JOANINHA SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO RODRIGUES ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMUM STAGE. THE INHABITANTS ARE
INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE SITUATION AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
PROVIDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-23 16:31

WTXS51 PGTW 231500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190323142614
2019032312 22S JOANINHA 007 02 225 06 SATL 060
T000 167S 0617E 060 R050 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 155 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 171S 0615E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 175S 0616E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 179S 0618E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 185S 0623E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 200S 0645E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 214S 0671E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 227S 0690E 070 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD
170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-03-23 16:16

WTXS51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190323142614
2019032312 22S JOANINHA 007 02 225 06 SATL 060
T000 167S 0617E 060 R050 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 171S 0615E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 175S 0616E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 179S 0618E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 185S 0623E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 200S 0645E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 214S 0671E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 227S 0690E 070 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.1S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.5S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.9S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.5S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.0S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.4S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.7S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 856 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032312 167S 617E 60
2219032312 167S 617E 60
NNNN

>

2019-03-23 15:19

WTXS31 PGTW 231500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.1S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-23 14:56

WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.1S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.5S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.9S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.5S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.0S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.4S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.7S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 856 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS CYCLING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE LLCC IN MSI IMAGERY WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED
BY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM FMEE, FIMP, PGTW.
A 230943Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 65 KTS, WHILE A 231215Z AUTOMATED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE IS T3.6 (57 KTS), MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PGTW ESTIMATE. TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 100 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU
72, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AT TAU 120. TC 22S IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH
AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, THE NER WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND
THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THEN DIVERGES SHARPLY BOTH IN NORTH-SOUTH
SPREAD AND ALONG-TRACK MOTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-23 12:46

WTIO31 FMEE 231236 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 61.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SO: 250 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2019-03-23 12:46

WTIO30 FMEE 231236 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 61.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SW: 250 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2019-03-23 12:43

WTIO31 FMEE 231236
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 61.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SO: 250 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DE FORTES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SE
SONT ENROULEES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME. SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES VISIBLES DISPONIBLES, UNE STRUCTURE D'OEIL DECHIQUETE A
COMMENCE A EMERGER PARMI LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX, QUI RESTENT PAR
AILLEURS TRES FROIDS. L'EPANCHEMENT DES CIRRUS TOUT AUTOUR DE LA
TEMPETE TEMOIGNE DE L'EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE.

JOANINHA CONTINUE DE PROGRESSER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
DEMAIN DIMANCHE, LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE
SUD-EST AVEC LE REPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN
THALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST, JOANINHA DEVRAIT ACCELERER LE LONG DE SA
TRAJECTOIRE.
LE TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD EST DESORMAIS COHERENT PARMI LES
PREVISIONS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. CEPENDANT, LA DISPERSION RESTE
RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE AVEC CERTAINS MODELES QUI PROPOSENT UN
RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST PLUS PROGRESSIF ET PLUS TARDIF, DONT IFS
(ECMWF).

LES CONDITIONS RESTENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DEMEURE EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE.
LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE AU NORD DE 23S. LUNDI SOIR, UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE CE QUI
DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. MARDI, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE
METEORE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS LES EFFETS COMBINA S DU
CISAILLEMENT ASSOCIA A UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC.

JOANINHA DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE RODRIGUES DANS LA NUIT
DE LUNDI A MARDI OU TOT MARDI MATIN AU STADE MAXIMAL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. LA POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE ET A SUIVRE
LES RECOMMANDATIONS DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

2019-03-23 12:43

WTIO30 FMEE 231236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 61.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SW: 250 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/24 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURRED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE LAST VIS IMAGES
AVAILABLE, A RAGGED EYE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AMONGST COLD
CLOUD TOPS. THE CIRRUS CLOUDS FANNING ALL AROUND THE STORM IS
SHOWCASING THE EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE.

JOANINHA KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS AT A SLOW PACE.
TOMORROW (SUNDAY), THE STORM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, JOANINHA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE.
THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN IS NOW CONSISTENT AMONGST THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH FROM MONDAY, AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH MORE
GRADUAL AND LATER SOUTHEASWARD TURN, LIKE IFS (ECMWF).

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT BOTH POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH NORTH OF 23S. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, AN UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT APPEARS AND THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY. TUESDAY, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR
ASSOCIATED TO DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR.

JOANINHA SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO RODRIGUES ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMUM STAGE. THE INHABITANTS ARE
INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE SITUATION AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
PROVIDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

2019-03-23 12:16

WTIO20 FMEE 231217
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 61.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/24 AT 00 UTC:
17.0 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/24 AT 12 UTC:
17.5 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-23 09:39

WTXS51 PGTW 230900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190323084713
2019032306 22S JOANINHA 006 02 215 04 SATL 060
T000 163S 0621E 055 R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 166S 0620E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 171S 0618E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 176S 0620E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 181S 0626E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 198S 0644E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 210S 0667E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 219S 0685E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-03-23 09:39

WTXS31 PGTW 230900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-23 09:21

WTXS51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190323084713
2019032306 22S JOANINHA 006 02 215 04 SATL 060
T000 163S 0621E 055 R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 166S 0620E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 171S 0618E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 176S 0620E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 181S 0626E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 198S 0644E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 210S 0667E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 219S 0685E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.1S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.1S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.8S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.0S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 62.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 823 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
2219032306 163S 621E 55
NNNN

>

2019-03-23 09:20

WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.1S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.1S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.8S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.0S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 62.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 823 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS AT TIMES OBSCURED BY
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
IS BASED ON A 230446Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED LLCC, AND A 230516Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A TIGHT
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 50-54 KT WIND
BARBS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE LARGELY INCREASED, WITH FMEE AND KNES AT
T3.5 (45 KTS), AND PGTW AND FIMP AT T4.0 (65 KTS). A 230156Z SATCON
ESTIMATE IS 59 KTS, AND A 230615Z AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE IS 57
KTS, CLOSE TO THE PGTW INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 100 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING
VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
AT TAU 120. TC 22S IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE
POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, THE NER WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND
THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SHARPLY DIVERGES
AFTER THAT. BY TAU 120, THE SPREAD IS 300 NM. NAVGEM IS A FAR
SOUTHERN OUTLIER, AND GALWEM AND UKMET ARE NORTHERN OUTLIERS. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-03-23 06:48

WTIO31 FMEE 230625 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 62.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SO: 250 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 23/03/2019 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

>

2019-03-23 06:48

WTIO30 FMEE 230625 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 62.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SW: 250 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/23 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/24 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

>

2019-03-23 06:45

WTIO31 FMEE 230625
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 62.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SO: 250 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 23/03/2019 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA BANDE INCURVEE A CONTINUE A
S'ENROULER AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE
LA PASSE SSMIS DE 0156Z MONTRENT UN COEUR EN COURS DE CONSOLIDATION.
CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE AMSU-B DE 0446Z SUGGERE QUE DE L'AIR SEC GENE
TEMPORAIREMENT LA CONSTRUCTION DE CE COEUR INTERNE DANS LE QUADRANT
OUEST. LES ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES SONT TOUTES EN ACCORD AVEC L'ANALYSE DU CMRS. LA PASSE
ASCAT DE 0446Z A PERMIS UNE REACTUALISATION COMPLETE DES EXTENSIONS
DE VENT.

JOANINHA CONTINUE DE PROGRESSER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST. EN
JOURNA E DE DIMANCHE, LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE
SUD-EST AVEC LE REPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. ENSUITE, JOANINHA DEVRAIT ACCELERER
GRADUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
PRECITEE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG PAR LE
SUD-OUEST, UNE PORTE DE SORTIE S'OUVRE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.
LE TIMING DU VIRAGE EST DESORMAIS COHERENT PARMI LES PREVISIONS DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES. CEPENDANT, AVEC DES DIFFERENCES DANS LA FORCE DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE, CERTAINS MODELES PROPOSENT UN
RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST BEAUCOUP PLUS PROGRESSIF, CE QUI AMENE
LE SYSTEME A L'OUEST DE RODRIGUE ET DONNE FINALEMENT UNE DISPERSION
RESTANT IMPORTANTE A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

LES CONDITIONS RESTENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST EST FAIBLE ET LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE EST TRES BONNE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE. LE
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE AU NORD DE 23S. CES ELEMENTS
POURRAIENT CONTRIBUER A UNE INTENSIFICATION UN PLUS RAPIDE QUE LE
TAUX CLIMATOLOGIQUE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. AINSI, LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE RESTE ENVISAGE JUSTE AVANT LE PASSAGE AU
PLUS PROCHE DE RODRIGUES. LUNDI, UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE CE QUI DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE
DU SYSTEME. MARDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT
FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT PROGRESSIF DU CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT
D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE METEORE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR A
PARTIR DE MARDI SOUS LES EFFETS COMBINA S DU CISAILLEMENT ASSOCIA A
UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC.

ACTUELLEMENT A UNE DISTANCE DE 400KM DES COTES DE RODRIGUES, JOANINHA
DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES AVEC UN
PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES PREVU DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI. LA
POPULATION EST INVITEE A SE TENIR INFORMEE DE L'EVOLUTION DES
PREVISIONS.=

>

2019-03-23 06:45

WTIO30 FMEE 230625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 62.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 320 SW: 250 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 230 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/23 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/24 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND KEPT ON WRAPPING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SSMIS 0156Z MW IMAGES SHOW A CONSOLIDATING
INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THE 0446Z AMSU-B IMAGE SUGGES THAT DRY
AIR IS TEMPORARILY HINDERING THE BUILDING OF THE CORE IN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATIONS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RSMC ANALYSIS. THE 0446Z
ASCAT SWATH HAS BEEN USED TO ESTIMATE THE WIND EXTENSIONS.

JOANINHA KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS AT A SLOW PACE. SUNDAY,
THE STORM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THEN,
JOANINHA SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. FROM WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, AN EXIT DOOR TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES
OPENS.
THE TIMING OF THE TURN IS NOW CONSISTENT AMONGST THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE, SOME MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH MORE
GRADUAL TURN THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF RODRIGUES AND
YIELDS A RELATIVELY HIGH MODEL DISPERSION FROM MONDAY.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM.
THE SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS
EXCELLENT BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCENANIC HEAT CONTENT IS
HIGH NORTH OF 23S. THESE ELEMENTS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FASTER
INTENSIFICATION THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PACE. THUS, THE INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS STILL FORECAST BEFORE THE CLOSEST PASSAGE
TO RODRIGUES. MONDAY, AN UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT APPEARS AND
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY. TUESDAY, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR
ASSOCIATED TO DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR.

CURRENTLY 400KM AWAY FROM RODRIGUES, JOANINHA SHOULD BECOME A
DANGEROUS SYSTEM FOR THIS ISLAND WITH A CLOSEST PASSAGE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE FORECASTS.=

>

2019-03-23 06:17

WTIO20 FMEE 230617
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 62.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/23 AT 18 UTC:
16.8 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/24 AT 06 UTC:
17.1 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-23 05:06

WTXS31 PGTW 230300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-23 04:48

WTXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.8S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.3S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.0S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.6S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 222351Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND AN ADT CI OF T3.6 (57
KNOTS). TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. THE 222351Z 37 GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A
CYAN RING, AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS
SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND
TAU 24, THE NER WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW
TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SHARPLY DIVERGES AFTER THAT. BY TAU 72 THE MODEL SPREAD IS
NEARLY 290 NM AND BY TAU 120 THE SPREAD IS 380 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-23 03:25

WTXS51 PGTW 230300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190323015707
2019032300 22S JOANINHA 005 02 180 04 SATL 025
T000 160S 0623E 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 160 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 164S 0621E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 168S 0619E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 173S 0619E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 180S 0625E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 196S 0641E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 213S 0665E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 230S 0690E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD
150 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-03-23 02:34

WTXS51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190323015707
2019032300 22S JOANINHA 005 02 180 04 SATL 025
T000 160S 0623E 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 164S 0621E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 168S 0619E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 173S 0619E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 180S 0625E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 196S 0641E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 213S 0665E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 230S 0690E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.8S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.3S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.0S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.6S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 151S 625E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
2219032300 160S 623E 55
2219032300 160S 623E 55
NNNN

>

2019-03-23 00:44

WTIO31 FMEE 230026 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 62.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 23/03/2019 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

>

2019-03-23 00:44

WTIO30 FMEE 230026 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 62.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/23 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

>

2019-03-23 00:41

WTIO31 FMEE 230026
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/13/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 62.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 23/03/2019 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 26/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 28/03/2019 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE SE MAINTIENT AVEC UN ENROULEMENT
QUI S'ACCENTUE ET UNE CONVECTION QUI S'INTENSIFIE PRES DU CENTRE. LES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDE DE 2132UTC VALIDENT UNE CONSOLIDATION DE LA
CIRCULATION, LAISSANT JOANINHA AU SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE A
00UTC.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE JOANINHA, AVEC UNE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ
LENTE, S'EST ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR
DE DIMANCHE, UN VIRAGE EST ATTENDU : LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE
UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS SUD PUIS SUD-SUD-EST AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA
DORSALE VERS LE NORD-EST. LUNDI PUIS LES JOURS SUIVANTS, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT FRANCHEMENT INFLECHIR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST SUR LA
FACE SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE ET ACCELERER PROGRESSIVEMENT A L'AVANT
D'UN PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.
CERTAINS MODELES CONTINUENT DE PRESENTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UN
VIRAGE PLUS TARDIF INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LENTE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS PREND LE CHOIX DU VIRAGE PLUS
PRECOCE AMENANT JOANINHA A PASSER AU PLUS PRES DE RODRIGUES DANS LA
NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. PAR CONTRE, LA DISTANCE DU PASSAGE AU PLUS
PRES EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE.

LES CONDITIONS RESTENT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LE
CISAILLEMENT EST FAIBLE ET LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST TRES BONNE A
LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE. LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST
ELEVE. CES ELEMENTS CONTRIBUENT A UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS RAPIDE QUE
LE TAUX CLIMATOLOGIQUE POUR LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, ET PLUS
PARTICULIEREMENT POUR LES PROCHAINES 12H. A L'ECHEANCE DU PASSAGE AU
PLUS PROCHE DE RODRIGUES, JOANINHA DEVRAIT AVOIR ATTEINT SON
INTENSITE MAXIMALE AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICALE INTENSE. A PARTIR DE
MARDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT AVEC UNE
AUGMENTATION PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR OUEST
QUI EST PREVU DEVENIR MODERE PUIS FORT A L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. L'INTENSITE DU METEORE DEVRAIT ALORS SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
FAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET D'UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC.

ACTUELLEMENT A UNE DISTANDE DE 400KM DES COTES DE RODRIGUES MAIS AVEC
UN DEPLACEMENT LENT, JOANINHA EST UN SYSTEME PRESENTANT UN REEL
DANGER POUR LES HABITANTS DE RODRIGUES. LA POPULATION EST TENUE DE SE
TENIR INFORMEE DE L'EVOLUTION DES PREVISIONS.=

>

2019-03-23 00:41

WTIO30 FMEE 230026
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/13/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 62.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/23 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/24 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/26 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/27 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/28 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE CURVED BAND PATTERN IS MAINTAINED WITH A SPIRAL WINDING THAT
INCREASES AND CONVECTION THAT INTENSIFIES NEAR THE CENTRE. THE
2132UTC MICROWAVE DATA VALIDATE A CONSOLIDATION OF LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, LEAVING JOANINHA AT THE THRESHOLD OF A SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM AT 00UTC.

JOANINHA'S TRACK, WITH A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT SPEED, ORIENTED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING BY A BUILDING MID-TROPOSHERE RIDGE LOCATED
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, A CURVE IS EXPECTED : THE
TRACK SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWARD AND AFTER SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING OF THE RIDGE. MONDAY AND NEXT DAYS,THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
THEN ACCELERATE AHEAD A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SOME MODELS
CONTINUE TO PRESENT A TRAK WITH A LATER TURN INDUCING A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. THIS RSMC TRACK FORECAST TAKES THE CHOICE OF THE EARLIER
TURN LEADING JOANINHA TO PASS AS CLOSE TO RODRIGUES AS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY BUT THE DISTANCE OF THE
CLOSELY PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY
GOOD BOTH POLERWARD AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH.
THESE ELEMENTS PROMOTE TO AN INTENSIFICATION FASTER THAN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AT THE TIME OF THE PASSAGE AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO
RODRIGUES, JOANINHA SHOULD HAVE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AT THE
THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FROM TUESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE PROGRESSIVELY WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SO, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
AND AN ENVIRONMENT DRIER AND DRIER.

CURRENTLY 400KM FROM THE RODRIGUE COASTS BUT WITH A SLOW
DISPLACEMENT, JOANINHA IS A TROPICAL SYSTEM PRESENTING A REAL DANGER
FOR THE INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES. THE POPULATION IS REQUIRED TO KEEP
INFORMED OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECASTS.=

>

2019-03-23 00:03

WTIO20 FMEE 230003
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 62.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
320 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/23 AT 12 UTC:
16.8 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/24 AT 00 UTC:
17.4 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-22 21:18

WTXS51 PGTW 222100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190322201122
2019032218 22S JOANINHA 004 02 190 06 SATL 045
T000 156S 0623E 045 R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 161S 0619E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 160 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 165S 0617E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 169S 0615E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 175S 0617E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191S 0634E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 209S 0659E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD
140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 224S 0682E 080 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
120 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD
180 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

>

2019-03-22 21:13

WTXS51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190322201122
2019032218 22S JOANINHA 004 02 190 06 SATL 045
T000 156S 0623E 045 R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 161S 0619E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 165S 0617E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 169S 0615E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 175S 0617E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191S 0634E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 209S 0659E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 224S 0682E 080 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.1S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.5S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.9S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.5S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.9S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 150S 624E 40
2219032218 156S 623E 45
NNNN

>

2019-03-22 21:04

WTXS31 PGTW 222100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.1S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.5S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-03-22 20:58

WTXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.1S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.5S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.9S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.5S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.9S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 221738Z 89 GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 22S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW TC 22S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC 22S IS
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36.
BEYOND TAU 36, THE NER WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND
ALLOW TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SHARPLY DIVERGES AFTER THAT. BY TAU 72 THE MODEL SPREAD IS
NEARLY 255 NM AND BY TAU 120 THE SPREAD IS 305 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-22 18:39

WTIO31 FMEE 221822 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/13/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 62.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 23/03/2019 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 23/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

>

2019-03-22 18:39

WTIO30 FMEE 221822 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/13/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 62.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/23 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/23 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/24 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/24 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

>

2019-03-22 18:36

WTIO31 FMEE 221822
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/13/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 62.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 23/03/2019 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 23/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 25/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/03/2019 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 27/03/2019 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION CONTINUE DE
S'ORGANISER AUTOUR DU CENTRE DANS UNE CONFIGURATION DE BANDE
INCURVEE. LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDE DE 1444UTC PERMETTENT DE
CONFIRMER UNE CONSOLIDATION DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. LA
PASSE PARTIELLE ASCAT DE 1736UTC FOURNIT DES VALEURS DE 35KT A PLUS
80 MN DU CENTRE. CELA VALIDE L'ANALYSE DVORAK A 3.0+, ESTIMANT DES
VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT. JOANINHA EST SUR LA VOIE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION.

ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE JOANINHA DEVRAIT
S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PENDANT PRES DE 12H PILOTE PAR UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE COMPOSANTE
PLUS SUD PUIS SUD-SUD-EST AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS LE
NORD-EST. LUNDI PUIS LES JOURS SUIVANTS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
FRANCHEMENT INFLECHIR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST SUR LA FACE
SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE PUIS ACCELERER PROGRESSIVEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN
PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. MEME SI LES
MODA LES SONT EN ACCORD SUR CETTE PHILOSOPHIE, ILS PRESENTENT DE GROS
ECARTS EN TERME DE LONGITUDE LIA S A LA LOCALISATION DU VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-SUD-EST. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS PREND LE
CHOIX DU VIRAGE PLUS PRECOCE AMENANT JOANINHA A PASSE AU PLUS PRES DE
RODRIGUES DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. PAR CONTRE, LA DISTANCE
DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE.

LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LE CISAILLEMENT
EST FAIBLE ET LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST TRES BONNE A LA FOIS CA TE
POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE. LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE. CES
ELEMENTS DEVRAIENT CONTRIBUER A UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS RAPIDE QUE
LE TAUX CLIMATOLOGIQUE POUR LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, ET PLUS
PARTICULIEREMENT POUR LES PROCHAINES 12 A 18H. A L'ECHEANCE DU
PASSAGE AU PLUS PROCHE DE RODRIGUES, JOANINHA DEVRAIT AVOIR ATTEINT
SON INTENSITE MAXIMALE AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICALE INTENSE. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT AVEC
UNE AUGMENTATION PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR
OUEST QUI EST PREVU DEVENIR MODERE PUIS FORT A L'AVANT DU PROFOND
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. L'INTENSITE DU METEORE DEVRAIT ALORS
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT FAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOUS L'EFFET DU
CISAILLEMENT ET D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC.=

>

2019-03-22 18:36

WTIO30 FMEE 221822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/13/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 62.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/23 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/23 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/24 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/24 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/25 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/25 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/26 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/27 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF AROUND
THE CENTER IN A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA FROM
1444UTC CONFIRM A CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
ASCAT PARTIAL SWATH OF 1736UTC PROVIDES VALUES FROM 35KT TO MORE THAN
80 NM FROM THE CENTER. THIS VALIDATES THE DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 3.0+,
ESTIMATING WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 40KT. JOANINHA IS INTENSIFYING.

CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST, JOANINHA'S TRACK SHOULD BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS STEERING BY A BUILDING
MID-TROPOSHERE RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS,
THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWARD AND AFTER SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY WITH
THE NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING OF THE RIDGE. MONDAY AND NEXT DAYS,THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE AHEAD A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EVEN IF
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PHILOSOPHY, THE
DISPERSION IS HIGH DUE TO THE TRANSITION MORE AND LESS QUICK BETWEEN
THE SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THIS RSMC TRACK
FORECAST TAKES THE CHOICE OF THE EARLIER TURN LEADING JOANINHA TO
PASS AS CLOSE TO RODRIGUES AS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT FROM SUNDAY
TO MONDAY BUT THE DISTANCE OF THE CLOSELY PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD BOTH
POLERWARD AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH. THESE
ELEMENTS SHOULD PROMOTE AN INTENSIFICATION FASTER THAN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AT THE TIME OF THE PASSAGE AS CLOSE AS
POSSIBLE TO RODRIGUES, JOANINHA SHOULD HAVE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY AT THE THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FROM
TUESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
PROGRESSIVELY WITH AN INCREASING WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SO, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND AN ENVIRONMENT DRIER AND DRIER.=

>

2019-03-22 18:10

WTIO20 FMEE 221808
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 62.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
260 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/23 AT 06 UTC:
16.6 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/23 AT 18 UTC:
17.2 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-22 14:37

WTXS31 PGTW 221500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 62.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.7S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-03-22 14:33

WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 62.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.7S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.9S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.9S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.4S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.8S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 62.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS NOW OBSCURED BY A GROWING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE BURGEONING CDO FEATURE, AND IS ABOVE THE KNES
AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC
22S HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCES OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 22S IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE MIDLEVEL RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE NORTH OF TC 22S, ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THOUGH IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE THUS FAR, TC 22S IS FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
ALMOST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS),
REACHING A PEAK OF 100 KTS AT TAU 72, WHEN A PASSING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE JTWC
FORECAST INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH END OF AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, CLOSE TO THE HWRF SOLUTION, AS THERE IS NOTHING
DETRIMENTAL IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION UNTIL VWS
BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 96, LEADING TO SLIGHT WEAKENING AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN WITH THE S-SHAPED TRACK, BUT
THERE REMAIN VARIATIONS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND THE INFLECTION
POINTS WHEN THE TRACK CURVES. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED BEHIND AND
WEST OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO SLOW
RECENTLY OBSERVED MOVEMENT, AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
IN LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-22 14:10

WTXS51 PGTW 221500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190322132606
2019032212 22S JOANINHA 003 02 225 04 SATL 060
T000 150S 0624E 040 R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 050 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 157S 0620E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 164S 0616E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 169S 0614E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 174S 0616E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 189S 0630E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 204S 0653E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 218S 0673E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

>

2019-03-22 14:05

WTXS51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190322132606
2019032212 22S JOANINHA 003 02 225 04 SATL 060
T000 150S 0624E 040 R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 050 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 157S 0620E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 164S 0616E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 169S 0614E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 174S 0616E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 189S 0630E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 204S 0653E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 218S 0673E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 62.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.7S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.9S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.9S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.4S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.8S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 62.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
2219032212 150S 624E 40
NNNN

>

2019-03-22 13:09

WTIO31 FMEE 221214 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/13/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 62.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 23/03/2019 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 23/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 24/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2019-03-22 13:09

WTIO30 FMEE 221214 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/13/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 62.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/23 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/23 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/24 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2019-03-22 13:06

WTIO31 FMEE 221214
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/13/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 62.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 23/03/2019 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 23/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 24/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 25/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 27/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION A CONTINUE DE SE
DEVELOPER PRES DU CENTRE. AUSSI LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN. CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 37
GHZ AMSR2 DE 0903Z MONTRE QUE LE COEUR CENTRAL N'EST PAS ENCORE
COMPLETEMENT CONSTITUA DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. MAIS LES
PUISSANTES POUSSA ES DE CONVECTION QUI SE PRODUISENT PRES DU CENTRE
DEPUIS 1000Z DEVRAIT CONTRIBUER A AMELIORER LA CONFIGURATION DU COEUR
INTERNE.

LE SYSTEME A RALENTI ET A ORIENTE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD. IL
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON VIRAGE CETTE NUIT VERS LE SUD-OUEST PILOTE PAR
UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE DANS L'EST DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE
UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS SUD AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS LE
NORD-EST. LUNDI PUIS LES JOURS SUIVANTS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
FRANCHEMENT INFLECHIR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST SUR LA FACE
SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE PUIS ACCELERER PROGRESSIVEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN
PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN FIN D'A CHA ANCE. MA ME SI
LES MODA LES SONT EN ACCORD SUR CETTE PHILOSOPHIE, ILS PRESENTENT DE
GROS ECARTS EN TERME DE LONGITUDE LIA S A LA TRANSITION PLUS OU MOINS
RAPIDE ENTRE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS VERS LE SUD-EST.
LE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DE RODRIGUES EST PREVU DANS LA NUIT DE
DIMANCHE A LUNDI. PAR CONTRE, LA DISTANCE DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES EST
ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE.

LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION. LE CISAILLEMENT
EST FAIBLE ET LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST TRES BONNE A LA FOIS CA TE
POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE. LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST ELEVE. CES
ELEMENTS DEVRAIENT CONTRIBUER A UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS RAPIDE QUE
LE TAUX CLIMATOLOGIQUE POUR LES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS. A PARTIR DE MARDI,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT AVEC UNE AUGMENTATION
PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR OUEST QUI EST PREVU
DEVENIR MODERE PUIS FORT A L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
PRECEDEMMENT MENTIONNE. L'INTENSITE DU METEORE DEVRAIT ALORS
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT FAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOUS L'EFFET DU
CISAILLEMENT ET D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC.=

>

2019-03-22 13:06

WTIO30 FMEE 221214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/13/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 62.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/23 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/23 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/24 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/24 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/25 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/25 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/26 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/27 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER. SO, THE SYSTEM HAS NAMED BY THE MAURITIUS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES. HOWEVER, 0903Z 37GHZ AMSR2 SWATH SHOWS A
CENTRAL CORE NOT COMPLETELY CONSOLIDATED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. BUT, SINCE 1000Z, SOME STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT
OCCUR SHOULD IMPROVE THE INNER CORE PATTERN.

THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN AND HAS CURVED SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD KEEP
ON ITS CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING BY A BUILDING MID-TROPOSHERE
RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY EVENING, THE TRACK SHOULD
CURVE SOUTHWARD AGAIN WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING OF THE RIDGE.
MONDAY AND NEXT DAYS,THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE AHEAD A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EVEN IF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PHILOSOPHY, THE DISPERSION IS HIGH DUE TO THE TRANSITION
MORE AND LESS QUICK BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE METEORE IS FORECASTED TO TRANSIT IN THE VICINITY OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE DISTANCE OF THE CLOSELY PASSAGE
IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD BOTH
POLERWARD AND EQUATORWARD. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH. THESE
ELEMENTS SHOULD PROMOTE AN INTENSIFICATION FASTER THAN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. FROM TUESDAY,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE PROGRESSIVELY
WITH AN INCREASING WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SO, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND AN ENVIRONMENT DRIER AND DRIER. .=

>

2019-03-22 12:44

WTIO20 FMEE 221208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOANINHA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 62.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND 500 MN IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 70
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/23 AT 00 UTC:
16.0 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/23 AT 12 UTC:
17.0 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-22 09:21

WTXS31 PGTW 220900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.3S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.0S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-03-22 09:13

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.3S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.0S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.7S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.4S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.1S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.6S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.0S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND A 220506Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, AND IS
ABOVE THE ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM KNES. TC 22S HAS TRACKED
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE MIDLEVEL RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
TO THE NORTH OF TC 22S, ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC
22S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT ALMOST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS), REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KTS AT TAU 72, WHEN A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH END OF AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AS THERE IS NOTHING DETRIMENTAL IN THE
ENVIRONMENT TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE S-SHAPED TRACK, BUT THERE
ARE LARGE VARIATIONS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND THE INFLECTION POINTS
WHEN THE TRACK CURVES. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, AND DEPICT A DUE SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM,
WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH ON THIS STILL-WEAK SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
IS FASTER THAN CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM, AND SLOWER IN ALONG-
TRACK SPEED IN LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-22 09:07

WTXS51 PGTW 220900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190322080649
2019032206 22S TWENTYTWO 002 02 135 03 SATL 060
T000 147S 0627E 035 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 153S 0627E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 160S 0623E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 167S 0619E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 174S 0618E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191S 0632E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 206S 0655E 095 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD
170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 220S 0678E 095 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 240 SE QD
190 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

2019-03-22 08:59

WTXS51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190322080649
2019032206 22S TWENTYTWO 002 02 135 03 SATL 060
T000 147S 0627E 035 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 153S 0627E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 160S 0623E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 167S 0619E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 174S 0618E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191S 0632E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 206S 0655E 095 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 220S 0678E 095 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.3S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.0S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.7S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.4S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.1S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.6S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.0S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
2219032206 147S 627E 35
NNNN

>

2019-03-22 05:13

WTXS51 PGTW 220300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190322013000
2019032200 22S TWENTYTWO 001 02 145 09 SATL 045
T000 145S 0625E 035 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 156S 0626E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 165S 0622E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 170S 0619E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 176S 0619E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 187S 0627E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 204S 0648E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 220S 0671E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

>

2019-03-22 05:02

WTXS51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190322013000
2019032200 22S TWENTYTWO 001 02 145 09 SATL 045
T000 145S 0625E 035 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 156S 0626E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 165S 0622E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 170S 0619E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 176S 0619E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 187S 0627E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 204S 0648E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 220S 0671E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 62.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.6S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.5S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.0S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.6S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.7S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.0S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 62.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219031906 117S 631E 20
2219031912 121S 630E 20
2219031918 124S 628E 25
2219032000 127S 624E 25
2219032006 128S 618E 25
2219032012 126S 612E 25
2219032018 126S 610E 25
2219032100 126S 608E 25
2219032106 128S 607E 25
2219032112 132S 613E 25
2219032118 138S 620E 30
2219032200 145S 625E 35
NNNN

>

2019-03-22 03:41

WTXS31 PGTW 220300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212121ZMAR19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 62.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.6S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS

>

2019-03-22 03:30

WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212121ZMAR19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 62.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.6S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.5S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.0S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.6S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.7S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.0S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 62.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A 220042Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO A CENTRAL
LOW REFLECTIVITY AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW. TC
22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN AN S-SHAPED CURVE. THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD
TRACK DIRECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH TC 22S WILL
TRACK BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48 THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE IS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERTIME, THE NER WILL TRANSIT TO THE
WEST, EVENTUALLY POSITIONING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING
THE S-SHAPED TRACK. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK SHAPE HOWEVER, THERE ARE LARGE VARIATIONS
IN THE LOCATION OF THE TRACK, LEADING TO A TAU 120 SPREAD OF AROUND
400NM. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 212130).//
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