Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for OMA-19
in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-02-23 02:13

WTPS51 PGTW 230300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190223013320
2019022300 15P OMA 045 01 125 09 SATL 035
T000 282S 1614E 035 R034 095 NE QD 220 SE QD 250 SW QD 240 NW QD
T012 279S 1625E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 28.2S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON

>

2019-02-23 02:10

WTPS51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190223013320
2019022300 15P OMA 045 01 125 09 SATL 035
T000 282S 1614E 035 R034 095 NE QD 220 SE QD 250 SW QD 240 NW QD
T012 279S 1625E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 28.2S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 19 FEET.
//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022106 232S1599E 45
1519022112 238S1597E 45
1519022118 247S1592E 40
1519022200 257S1591E 40
1519022206 267S1593E 35
1519022212 272S1599E 35
1519022218 277S1606E 35
1519022300 282S1614E 35

>

2019-02-23 02:09

WTPS31 PGTW 230300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 28.2S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND A
FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE

>

2019-02-23 02:06

WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 28.2S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND A
FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC HOWEVER THEY ARE LESS DEFINED THAN THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) DUE TO THE 221039Z
ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED 35-40 KNOT WIND BARBS. IN THE HOURS SINCE
THE ASCAT PASS THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF
STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE, AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH COOL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES TO PREVENT A RAPID DISSIPATION TREND. TC 15P
IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED DUE TO THE STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE
SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STR BUILDING IN WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. ADDITIONAL FACTORS INCLUDING DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SUSTAINED STRONG VWS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION
OVER WATER BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EQUATORWARD TURN WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING
AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET.//

>

2019-02-22 20:05

WTPS51 PGTW 222100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222191853
2019022218 15P OMA 044 01 105 09 SATL 040
T000 274S 1609E 035 R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW QD 255 NW QD
T012 272S 1620E 030
T024 264S 1627E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 160.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 160.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 27.2S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.4S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

>

2019-02-22 20:05

WTPS31 PGTW 222100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 160.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 160.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 27.2S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.4S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 161.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

>

2019-02-22 19:54

WTPS51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222191853
2019022218 15P OMA 044 01 105 09 SATL 040
T000 274S 1609E 035 R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW QD 255 NW QD
T012 272S 1620E 030
T024 264S 1627E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 160.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 160.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 27.2S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.4S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 161.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND A FULLY EXPOSED, BROAD AND DIFFUSE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 221832Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 221039Z WHICH INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P LIES IN A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, LOW SSTS OF 26 CELSIUS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSETTING THE CONTINUED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS NOW TRACKING EASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED TO THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DEEP RIDGE WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY, LEADING TO A FURTHER WEAKENINGM, WHICH COUPLED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, STABLE AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIDTH OF THE EQUATORWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022106 232S1599E 45
1519022112 238S1597E 45
1519022118 247S1592E 40
1519022200 257S1591E 40
1519022206 267S1593E 35
1519022212 272S1599E 35
1519022218 274S1609E 35
NNNN

>

2019-02-22 19:53

WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 160.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 160.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 27.2S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.4S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 161.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND
A FULLY EXPOSED, BROAD AND DIFFUSE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 221832Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK
RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF A PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS FROM 221039Z WHICH INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 35-40 KNOT
WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P LIES IN A
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, LOW
SSTS OF 26 CELSIUS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSETTING THE CONTINUED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC
15P IS NOW TRACKING EASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED TO THE STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DEEP RIDGE WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY,
LEADING TO A FURTHER WEAKENING, WHICH COUPLED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY, STABLE AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER
BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIDTH OF THE EQUATORWARD
TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-22 14:33

WTPS51 PGTW 221500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222131601
2019022212 15P OMA 043 01 150 08 SATL 025
T000 277S 1599E 035 R034 155 NE QD 200 SE QD 295 SW QD 220 NW QD
T012 283S 1605E 035 R034 170 NE QD 270 SE QD 280 SW QD 230 NW QD
T024 280S 1612E 035 R034 060 NE QD 220 SE QD 290 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 271S 1614E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 27.7S 159.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 159.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.3S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-22 14:33

WTPS31 PGTW 221500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 27.7S 159.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 159.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.3S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 28.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-22 14:25

WTPS51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222131601
2019022212 15P OMA 043 01 150 08 SATL 025
T000 277S 1599E 035 R034 155 NE QD 200 SE QD 295 SW QD 220 NW QD
T012 283S 1605E 035 R034 170 NE QD 270 SE QD 280 SW QD 230 NW QD
T024 280S 1612E 035 R034 060 NE QD 220 SE QD 290 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 271S 1614E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 27.7S 159.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 159.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.3S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 28.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.1S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 27.8S 160.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022106 232S1599E 45
1519022112 238S1597E 45
1519022118 247S1592E 40
1519022200 257S1591E 40
1519022206 270S1594E 35
1519022212 277S1599E 35

>

2019-02-22 14:24

WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 27.7S 159.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 159.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.3S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 28.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.1S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 27.8S 160.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME ALMOST FULLY
EXPOSED WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE
LLC. RAIN BANDS CONTINUED TO UNRAVEL AND HAD BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXPOSED LLC
IN THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LLC FEATURE
IN THE 221059Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.0/30KTS TO T2.7/37KTS. TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN STR OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT FOR NOW, ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 12, A SECONDARY STR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND SLOWLY TURN THE CYCLONE
EQUATORWARD. THE RESULTING QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION WILL RESULT
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER, DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING AND COOLING SSTS AS A
RESULT OF QS UPWELLING WILL WEAKEN TC OMA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH AN EVENTUAL
EQUATORWARD TRACK BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DEGREE OF TURN AND
ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-22 09:05

WTPS51 PGTW 220900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222073452
2019022206 15P OMA 042 01 170 13 SATL 025
T000 270S 1594E 035 R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 250 SW QD 220 NW QD
T012 276S 1597E 035 R034 140 NE QD 280 SE QD 290 SW QD 250 NW QD
T024 280S 1601E 035 R034 090 NE QD 240 SE QD 300 SW QD 270 NW QD
T036 275S 1605E 035 R034 040 NE QD 240 SE QD 280 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 262S 1607E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 159.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 159.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.6S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-22 09:04

WTPS31 PGTW 220900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 159.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 159.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.6S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.0S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-22 09:03

WTPS51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222073452
2019022206 15P OMA 042 01 170 13 SATL 025
T000 270S 1594E 035 R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 250 SW QD 220 NW QD
T012 276S 1597E 035 R034 140 NE QD 280 SE QD 290 SW QD 250 NW QD
T024 280S 1601E 035 R034 090 NE QD 240 SE QD 300 SW QD 270 NW QD
T036 275S 1605E 035 R034 040 NE QD 240 SE QD 280 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 262S 1607E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 159.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 159.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.6S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.0S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 159.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022106 232S1599E 45
1519022112 238S1597E 45
1519022118 247S1592E 40
1519022200 257S1591E 40
1519022206 270S1594E 35

>

2019-02-22 09:01

WTPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 159.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 159.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.6S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.0S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 159.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS RAIN BANDS UNRAVELED AND CENTRAL
CONVECTION COLLAPSED, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 220425Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 15P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR OVER COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT FOR NOW, ARE
PARTLY OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 24, A SECONDARY
STR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE
CYCLONE EQUATORWARD. THE RESULTING QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION WILL
RESULT IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING AND COOLING
SSTS AS A RESULT OF QS UPWELLING WILL WEAKEN TC OMA, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//

>

2019-02-22 01:39

WTPS51 PGTW 220300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222005345
2019022200 15P OMA 041 01 185 10 SATL 040
T000 257S 1591E 040 R034 180 NE QD 165 SE QD 195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 268S 1591E 040 R034 140 NE QD 250 SE QD 260 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 274S 1596E 040 R034 120 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 269S 1599E 035 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 260 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 262S 1600E 035 R034 010 NE QD 230 SE QD 270 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 237S 1598E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 159.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 159.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.8S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-22 01:39

WTPS31 PGTW 220300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 159.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 159.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.8S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.4S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-22 01:33

WTPS51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222005345
2019022200 15P OMA 041 01 185 10 SATL 040
T000 257S 1591E 040 R034 180 NE QD 165 SE QD 195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 268S 1591E 040 R034 140 NE QD 250 SE QD 260 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 274S 1596E 040 R034 120 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 269S 1599E 035 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 260 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 262S 1600E 035 R034 010 NE QD 230 SE QD 270 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 237S 1598E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 159.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 159.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.8S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.4S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.9S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.2S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.7S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 159.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A DISTINCT DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVELS, EVIDENCED BY A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 212233Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE LENDED WEIGHT TO THE HIGH CONFIDENCE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. WHILE A 212204Z ASCAT-A PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, THESE ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A FLARE OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA AND NOT DIRECTLY INDICATIVE OF THE STORM INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, A BROAD BAND OF 45 KNOT WINDS WAS PRESENT ABOUT 100NM TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT AGAIN THESE ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL STORM INTENSITY BUT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW. THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHILE AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE WAS 2.4 (34 KNOTS) AT THE ANALYSIS TIME, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE 40 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH OFFSETTING FACTORS OF LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW VERSUS COOL SSTS (25-26 CELSIUS), ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, STABLE AIR AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 15P HAS STARTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRENGTHENING STR BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND SHIFT THE TRACK OF TC 15P TO THE NORTH. AS THIS DEEP RIDGE BUILDS IN, BY TAU 36 IT BEGINS TO CHOKE OFF THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT THOUGH ALL CONSESUS MEMBERS AGREE IN THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SOLE REMAINING WESTWARD TURNING MODEL. WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022106 232S1599E 45
1519022112 238S1597E 45
1519022118 247S1592E 40
1519022200 257S1591E 40
NNNN

>

2019-02-22 01:33

WTPS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 159.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 159.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.8S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.4S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.9S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.2S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.7S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 159.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
WITH A DISTINCT DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVELS, EVIDENCED BY
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 212233Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. WHILE A 212204Z ASCAT-A PASS
INDICATED AN AREA OF 45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER,
THESE ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A FLARE OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA AND
NOT DIRECTLY INDICATIVE OF THE STORM INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, A BROAD
BAND OF 45 KNOT WINDS WAS PRESENT ABOUT 100NM TO THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT AGAIN THESE ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ACTUAL STORM INTENSITY BUT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW. THE PGTW
AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHILE AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE WAS 2.4 (34 KNOTS) AT THE ANALYSIS
TIME, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORT THE 40 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH
OFFSETTING FACTORS OF LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW VERSUS COOL SSTS (25-26 CELSIUS), ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, STABLE
AIR AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP,
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, TC 15P HAS STARTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A STRENGTHENING STR BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER POLEWARD
MOVEMENT AND SHIFT THE TRACK OF TC 15P TO THE NORTH. AS THIS DEEP
RIDGE BUILDS IN, BY TAU 36 IT BEGINS TO CHOKE OFF THE ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT
THOUGH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE IN THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH NAVGEM
BEING THE SOLE REMAINING WESTWARD TURNING MODEL. WITH THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-21 20:06

WTPS31 PGTW 212100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 159.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 159.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.8S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.4S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-21 20:05

WTPS51 PGTW 212100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221191649
2019022118 15P OMA 040 01 205 10 SATL 040
T000 247S 1592E 040 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 258S 1588E 040 R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 205 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 264S 1589E 040 R034 135 NE QD 200 SE QD 215 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 268S 1593E 035 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 250 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 263S 1596E 035 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 250 SW QD 230 NW QD
T072 248S 1597E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 159.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 159.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.8S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-21 20:00

WTPS51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221191649
2019022118 15P OMA 040 01 205 10 SATL 040
T000 247S 1592E 040 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 258S 1588E 040 R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 205 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 264S 1589E 040 R034 135 NE QD 200 SE QD 215 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 268S 1593E 035 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 250 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 263S 1596E 035 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 250 SW QD 230 NW QD
T072 248S 1597E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 159.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 159.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.8S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.4S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.8S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.8S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 159.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 211640Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER NOW DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 25NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST VWS VECTOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, BEING OFFSET BY LOW (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. TC 15P CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR CENTERED FAR THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BEYOND TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, INCREASING VWS AND MASS CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEST COMBINE TO ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 72. ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE LIMITED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE NORTH, WITH VARIATIONS ON WHICH WAY THE TRACK WILL TURN (CLOCKWISE OR COUNTERCLOCKWISE). THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK LIES JUST INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, AND TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST THEN NORTH AS THIS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCEARNIO DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022106 232S1599E 45
1519022112 238S1597E 45
1519022118 247S1592E 40
NNNN

>

2019-02-21 20:00

WTPS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 159.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 159.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.8S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.4S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.8S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.8S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 159.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SHALLOW CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 211640Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE, WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL CENTER NOW DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 25NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOWER-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST VWS VECTOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
VWS, BEING OFFSET BY LOW (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) SSTS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. TC 15P CONTINUES
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BEYOND TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN
AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, INCREASING VWS AND MASS CONVERGENCE FROM THE
WEST COMBINE TO ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 72.
ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE LIMITED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
AND SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE NORTH, WITH VARIATIONS ON WHICH WAY THE
TRACK WILL TURN (CLOCKWISE OR COUNTERCLOCKWISE). THE JTWC OFFICIAL
TRACK LIES JUST INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, AND TURNS THE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST THEN NORTH AS THIS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND
222100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-21 15:13

WTPS51 PGTW 211500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221133326
2019022112 15P OMA 039 01 185 07 SATL 025
T000 241S 1597E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 251S 1592E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 260S 1589E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 266S 1592E 040 R034 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 264S 1596E 035 R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD 255 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 253S 1596E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 24.1S 159.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 159.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.1S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-21 15:13

WTPS31 PGTW 211500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 24.1S 159.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 159.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.1S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.0S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-21 14:36

WTPS51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221133326
2019022112 15P OMA 039 01 185 07 SATL 025
T000 241S 1597E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 251S 1592E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 260S 1589E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 266S 1592E 040 R034 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 264S 1596E 035 R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD 255 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 253S 1596E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 24.1S 159.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 159.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.1S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.0S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.6S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.4S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.3S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 159.6E.
TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022106 234S1598E 45
1519022112 241S1597E 45

>

2019-02-21 14:34

WTPS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 24.1S 159.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 159.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.1S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.0S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.6S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.4S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.3S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 159.6E.
TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG THE FEEDER BANDS AND IN THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAVE WARMED; HOWEVER, A 211051Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS STILL
SHOWS WIND BARBS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE IMMEDIATE OUTER PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND MARGINAL SSTS AT 26 CELSIUS ARE OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE VWS AND
OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, LEADING TO
SUSTAINED INTENSITY AT BEST. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK
POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STORM MOTION. CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING
AS A RESULT OF THE QS MOTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL ACCELERATE THE
DETERIORATION OF TC OMA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AFTER TAU 24 WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
IN RESPONSE TO THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS HELD
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND
221500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-21 09:48

WTPS51 PGTW 210900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221073709
2019022106 15P OMA 038 01 205 09 SATL 025
T000 234S 1598E 045 R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 243S 1591E 045 R034 120 NE QD 200 SE QD 250 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 253S 1586E 045 R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 280 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 258S 1585E 045 R034 140 NE QD 250 SE QD 260 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 262S 1587E 045 R034 120 NE QD 240 SE QD 260 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 260S 1592E 040 R034 070 NE QD 220 SE QD 230 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 238S 1585E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 159.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 159.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.3S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-21 09:48

WTPS31 PGTW 210900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 159.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 159.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.3S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.3S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-21 09:14

WTPS51 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221073709
2019022106 15P OMA 038 01 205 09 SATL 025
T000 234S 1598E 045 R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 243S 1591E 045 R034 120 NE QD 200 SE QD 250 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 253S 1586E 045 R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 280 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 258S 1585E 045 R034 140 NE QD 250 SE QD 260 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 262S 1587E 045 R034 120 NE QD 240 SE QD 260 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 260S 1592E 040 R034 070 NE QD 220 SE QD 230 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 238S 1585E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 159.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 159.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.3S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.3S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.8S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.2S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.0S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.8S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 159.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022100 226S1602E 50
1519022106 234S1598E 45

>

2019-02-21 09:14

WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 159.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 159.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.3S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.3S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.8S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.2S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.0S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.8S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 159.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
EVIDENCED BY UNRAVELING RAIN BANDS LEADNING TOWARD AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC IN THE 210524Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE
AND MARGINAL SSTS AT 26 CELSIUS ARE OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE VWS AND
OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINED INTENSITY.
TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU
24, A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR
STEERING AND RESULT IN YET ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STORM
MOTION. AFTER TAU 48, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO
DECREASE, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING AS A RESULT OF THE QS MOTION. THIS
COMBINATION WILL ACCELERATE THE DETERIORATION OF TC OMA, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD
AFTER TAU 24 WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE COMPETING
STEERING MECHANISMS. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-21 01:46

WTPS51 PGTW 210200
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221010938
2019022100 15P OMA 037 01 225 05 SATL 040
T000 225S 1600E 050 R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 135 NW QD
T012 232S 1594E 045 R034 140 NE QD 220 SE QD 260 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 239S 1588E 045 R034 160 NE QD 270 SE QD 320 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 247S 1584E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 290 SE QD 330 SW Q
D 270 NW QD
T048 253S 1578E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 280 SE QD 320 SW Q
D 260 NW QD
T072 248S 1572E 045 R034 080 NE QD 270 SE QD 290 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 241S 1567E 040 R034 060 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 234S 1561E 035 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.2S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.9S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.7S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.3S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.1S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.4S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRA
CKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A VERY RAGGED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANI
MATED MSI AND SUPPORTED BY A 202222Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY E
STIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TEC
HNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (33 KNOTS). TC 15P IS RAPIDLY DECAYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG TH
E WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN AN O
VERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, UPPER LEVEL CO
NVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND COOL SSTS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 26 CELSIUS ARE COMBINING TO WE
AKEN THE SYSTEM IRREGARDLESS OF THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE T
RACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AT ROUGHLY 4 TO 5 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE A
FOREMENTIONED STR. BEYOND TAU 48 A STRONG STR BUILDS IN OVER TASMANIA BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD M
OVEMENT. TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, TC 15P BECOMES QUASI-ST
ATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, GENERALLY DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE OVER TASMANIA MOVES NOR
THEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EXPERIEN
CE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFL
OW CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THEREAFTER, INCREASED VWS COMBINED WITH
ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, STABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH T
AU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH THE NAVGEM, EGRR AND GALWEM MODELS SHOWING A
TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, WITH NAVGEM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKW
ISE LOOP BACK TO THE CENTRAL CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EVEN HERE HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE ECMWF SO
LUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS CAIRNS BY TAU 120, WHILE GFS PERFORMS A CLOCKWI
SE LOOP BACK TO THE SOUTH ENDING UP EAST OF BRISBANE BY THE SAME TIME. IN LIGHT OF THE BIFURCATION
AND EXTREME VARIANCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z
AND 220300Z.
//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 225S1600E 50
1519022100 225S1600E 50

>

2019-02-21 01:46

WTPS31 PGTW 210200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.2S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.9S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.7S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.3S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.1S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.4S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTHEAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A VERY RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SUPPORTED BY A 202222Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (33 KNOTS). TC 15P IS RAPIDLY
DECAYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND COOL
SSTS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 26 CELSIUS ARE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AT ROUGHLY
4 TO 5 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
BEYOND TAU 48 A STRONG STR BUILDS IN OVER TASMANIA BLOCKING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST, TC 15P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, GENERALLY
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE OVER TASMANIA MOVES
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EXPERIENCE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THEREAFTER,
INCREASED VWS COMBINED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, STABLE AIR FROM THE
SOUTH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH THE NAVGEM, EGRR AND
GALWEM MODELS SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, WITH
NAVGEM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO
THE CENTRAL CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EVEN HERE HOWEVER THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM
WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS CAIRNS BY TAU 120, WHILE GFS PERFORMS A
CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE SOUTH ENDING UP EAST OF BRISBANE BY THE
SAME TIME. IN LIGHT OF THE BIFURCATION AND EXTREME VARIANCE IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//

>

2019-02-21 01:42

WTPS51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221010938
2019022100 15P OMA 037 01 225 05 SATL 040
T000 225S 1600E 050 R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 232S 1594E 045 R034 140 NE QD 220 SE QD 260 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 239S 1588E 045 R034 160 NE QD 270 SE QD 320 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 247S 1584E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 290 SE QD 330 SW QD 270 NW QD
T048 253S 1578E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 280 SE QD 320 SW QD 260 NW QD
T072 248S 1572E 045 R034 080 NE QD 270 SE QD 290 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 241S 1567E 040 R034 060 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 234S 1561E 035 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.2S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.9S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.7S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.3S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.1S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.4S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A VERY RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SUPPORTED BY A 202222Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (33 KNOTS). TC 15P IS RAPIDLY DECAYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND COOL SSTS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 26 CELSIUS ARE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IRREGARDLESS OF THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AT ROUGHLY 4 TO 5 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. BEYOND TAU 48 A STRONG STR BUILDS IN OVER TASMANIA BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, TC 15P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, GENERALLY DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE OVER TASMANIA MOVES NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EXPERIENCE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THEREAFTER, INCREASED VWS COMBINED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, STABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH THE NAVGEM, EGRR AND GALWEM MODELS SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, WITH NAVGEM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE CENTRAL CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EVEN HERE HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS CAIRNS BY TAU 120, WHILE GFS PERFORMS A CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE SOUTH ENDING UP EAST OF BRISBANE BY THE SAME TIME. IN LIGHT OF THE BIFURCATION AND EXTREME VARIANCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022018 221S1604E 55
1519022100 225S1600E 50
1519022100 225S1600E 50
NNNN

>

2019-02-21 01:42

WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.2S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.9S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.7S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.3S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.1S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.4S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTHEAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A VERY RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SUPPORTED BY A 202222Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (33 KNOTS). TC 15P IS RAPIDLY
DECAYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND COOL
SSTS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 26 CELSIUS ARE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AT ROUGHLY
4 TO 5 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
BEYOND TAU 48 A STRONG STR BUILDS IN OVER TASMANIA BLOCKING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST, TC 15P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, GENERALLY
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE OVER TASMANIA MOVES
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EXPERIENCE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THEREAFTER,
INCREASED VWS COMBINED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, STABLE AIR FROM THE
SOUTH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH THE NAVGEM, EGRR AND
GALWEM MODELS SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, WITH
NAVGEM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO
THE CENTRAL CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EVEN HERE HOWEVER THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM
WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS CAIRNS BY TAU 120, WHILE GFS PERFORMS A
CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE SOUTH ENDING UP EAST OF BRISBANE BY THE
SAME TIME. IN LIGHT OF THE BIFURCATION AND EXTREME VARIANCE IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-20 20:36

WTPS51 PGTW 202100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190220191732
2019022018 15P OMA 036 01 205 04 SATL 040
T000 221S 1606E 055 R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
165 NE QD 205 SE QD 185 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 228S 1601E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 236S 1593E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 247S 1586E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 240 SE QD 280 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 250S 1579E 045 R034 130 NE QD 250 SE QD 270 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 247S 1570E 040 R034 100 NE QD 280 SE QD 290 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 237S 1565E 035 R034 070 NE QD 240 SE QD 230 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 226S 1558E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 160.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-20 20:36

WTPS31 PGTW 202100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 160.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 160.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.8S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-20 20:33

WTPS51 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190220191732
2019022018 15P OMA 036 01 205 04 SATL 040
T000 221S 1606E 055 R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 205 SE QD 185 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T012 228S 1601E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T024 236S 1593E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T036 247S 1586E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 280 SW Q
D 210 NW QD
T048 250S 1579E 045 R034 130 NE QD 250 SE QD 270 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 247S 1570E 040 R034 100 NE QD 280 SE QD 290 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 237S 1565E 035 R034 070 NE QD 240 SE QD 230 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 226S 1558E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 160.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 160.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.8S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.6S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.7S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.0S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.7S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.6S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRA
CKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTION WRAPP
ING INTO A BROAD AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 201652Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED AN EXCELL
ENT VIEW OF THE LOWER LEVEL EYE FEATURE, AND PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORARK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 61 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LO
W VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 26 CELSIUS AND THE LARGE NATURE OF THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION. TC 15P IS CURRENTL
Y TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF FIJI. THIS
SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH THE WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TRA
CKING WEST AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 72, THIS RIDGE MOVES UP ALON
G THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA, DRIVING TC 15P ONTO A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDE
R OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOU
RS AS THE LOW VWS AND STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSET THE COOL SSTS, WHICH WILL HOVER AROUND 26 CELSIUS. THE
REAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS COOL, DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTE
M, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022012 217S1608E 60
1519022018 221S1606E 55
1519022018 221S1606E 55

>

2019-02-20 20:31

WTPS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 160.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 160.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.8S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.6S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.7S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.0S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.7S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.6S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM NORTHEAST
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 201652Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED AN EXCELLENT VIEW OF THE LOWER LEVEL EYE
FEATURE, AND PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 61 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 26 CELSIUS AND THE LARGE NATURE OF THE CENTRAL
CIRCULATION. TC 15P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF FIJI. THIS
SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AFTER
WHICH THE STORM WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TRACKING WEST AS A STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 72, THIS RIDGE MOVES UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA, DRIVING TC 15P ONTO A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE LOW VWS AND STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSET THE COOL SSTS, WHICH
WILL HOVER AROUND 26 CELSIUS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS COOL, DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE
SYSTEM, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-20 14:41

WTPS51 PGTW 201500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190220133130
2019022012 15P OMA 035 01 205 04 SATL 050
T000 219S 1608E 060 R050 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
165 NE QD 205 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 226S 1600E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 190 SE QD 230 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 233S 1592E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 210 SE QD 260 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 242S 1584E 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 270 SE QD 320 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 252S 1579E 045 R034 160 NE QD 300 SE QD 330 SW QD 260 NW QD
T072 252S 1569E 045 R034 100 NE QD 280 SE QD 310 SW QD 230 NW QD
T096 241S 1561E 045 R034 100 NE QD 240 SE QD 260 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 227S 1551E 040 R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-20 14:39

WTPS31 PGTW 201500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.6S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-20 14:38

WTPS51 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190220133130
2019022012 15P OMA 035 01 205 04 SATL 050
T000 219S 1608E 060 R050 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 205 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T012 226S 1600E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 230 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T024 233S 1592E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 260 SW Q
D 190 NW QD
T036 242S 1584E 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 270 SE QD 320 SW Q
D 230 NW QD
T048 252S 1579E 045 R034 160 NE QD 300 SE QD 330 SW QD 260 NW QD
T072 252S 1569E 045 R034 100 NE QD 280 SE QD 310 SW QD 230 NW QD
T096 241S 1561E 045 R034 100 NE QD 240 SE QD 260 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 227S 1551E 040 R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.6S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.3S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.2S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.2S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.2S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.1S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.7S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 160.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022006 215S1610E 65
1519022012 219S1608E 60
1519022012 219S1608E 60

>

2019-02-20 14:37

WTPS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.6S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.3S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.2S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.2S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.2S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.1S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.7S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 160.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 201111Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/4.0 (55/65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (26C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO
EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM
IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURN
WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 15P WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 72 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING ENTRAINMENT
OF COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//

>

2019-02-20 08:59

WTPS51 PGTW 200900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190220070300
2019022006 15P OMA 034 01 210 04 SATL 030
T000 215S 1610E 070 R064 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD
200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 222S 1602E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD
210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 229S 1594E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 190 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 238S 1586E 055 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 220 SE QD 260 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 249S 1582E 050 R050 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 261S 1584E 045 R034 140 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 259S 1596E 040 R034 110 NE QD 220 SE QD 230 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 253S 1604E 035 R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 161.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-20 08:59

WTPS31 PGTW 200900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 161.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 161.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.2S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-20 08:31

WTPS51 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190220070300
2019022006 15P OMA 034 01 210 04 SATL 030
T000 215S 1610E 070 R064 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 222S 1602E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 229S 1594E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T036 238S 1586E 055 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 260 SW Q
D 190 NW QD
T048 249S 1582E 050 R050 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW Q
D 210 NW QD
T072 261S 1584E 045 R034 140 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 259S 1596E 040 R034 110 NE QD 220 SE QD 230 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 253S 1604E 035 R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 161.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 161.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.2S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.9S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.8S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.9S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.1S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.9S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 160.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519021918 209S1615E 75
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022000 212S1612E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 70
1519022006 215S1610E 70

>

2019-02-20 08:31

WTPS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 161.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 161.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.2S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.9S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.8S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.9S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.1S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.9S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 160.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE (ABOUT 40 TO 45NM
DIAMETER) RAGGED EYE. A 200537Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT
70 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0/4.5 (65/77
KNOTS). TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26 TO
27C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO EVIDENCE OF DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY
BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND,
POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS DUE TO THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND
POTENTIALLY DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 120. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 72, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
TRACK EQUATORWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z,
202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-20 03:15

WTPS51 PGTW 200300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190220021157
2019022000 15P OMA 033 01 215 05 SATL 035
T000 214S 1612E 070 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD
150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 220S 1605E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD
190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 227S 1597E 060 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 236S 1590E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 200 SE QD 230 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 248S 1582E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 263S 1582E 050 R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 240 SE QD 260 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 265S 1595E 045 R034 120 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 263S 1608E 045 R034 090 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 161.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-20 03:15

WTPS31 PGTW 200300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 161.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 161.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.0S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-20 02:50

WTPS51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190220021157
2019022000 15P OMA 033 01 215 05 SATL 035
T000 214S 1612E 070 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 220S 1605E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 227S 1597E 060 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T036 236S 1590E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 230 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T048 248S 1582E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T072 263S 1582E 050 R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 260 SW Q
D 210 NW QD
T096 265S 1595E 045 R034 120 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 263S 1608E 045 R034 090 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 161.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 161.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.0S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.7S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.6S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.8S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.3S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.5S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.3S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 161.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 210S1615E 75
1519021918 210S1615E 75
1519021918 210S1615E 75
1519022000 214S1612E 70
1519022000 214S1612E 70
1519022000 214S1612E 70

>

2019-02-20 02:44

WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 161.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 161.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.0S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
ADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.7S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.6S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.8S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.3S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.5S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.3S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 161.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEGRADING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE,
RAGGED AND POORLY STRUCTURED EYE. A 192243Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) BASED ON A WEAKENING
TREND IN THE STORM STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5
TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR
REORIENTS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY IN A MORE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES
AND HIGHER SHEAR CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE A WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST RECURVATURE AFTER TAU 72 WHILE
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
72. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-19 21:18

WTPS51 PGTW 192100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190219195811
2019021918 15P OMA 032 01 205 07 SATL 035
T000 211S 1615E 075 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 217S 1609E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD
200 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 224S 1601E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD
210 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 232S 1593E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD
220 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 242S 1586E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 210 SE QD 250 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 260S 1584E 050 R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 261S 1591E 045 R034 100 NE QD 230 SE QD 270 SW QD 220 NW QD
T120 260S 1601E 040 R034 090 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM

>

2019-02-19 21:16

WTPS31 PGTW 192100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.7S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-19 21:14

WTPS51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190219195811
2019021918 15P OMA 032 01 205 07 SATL 035
T000 211S 1615E 075 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 217S 1609E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 224S 1601E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 210 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 232S 1593E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 220 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 242S 1586E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD 250 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 260S 1584E 050 R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 261S 1591E 045 R034 100 NE QD 230 SE QD 270 SW QD 220 NW QD
T120 260S 1601E 040 R034 090 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.7S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.4S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.2S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.2S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.0S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.1S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.0S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 161.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 606 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021912 205S1618E 75
1519021918 211S1615E 75
1519021918 211S1615E 75
1519021918 211S1615E 75
NNNN

>

2019-02-19 21:13

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.7S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.4S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.2S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.2S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.0S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.1S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.0S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 161.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 606 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 191705Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KNOTS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS STILL
HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY IN A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND HIGHER SHEAR CAUSING IT TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//

>

2019-02-19 14:38

WTPS51 PGTW 191500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190219124900
2019021912 15P OMA 031 01 190 06 SATL 040
T000 206S 1620E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD
160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 213S 1614E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD
180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 220S 1607E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD
220 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 229S 1600E 070 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD
220 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 239S 1595E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 190 SE QD 260 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 259S 1594E 050 R050 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 270 SE QD 320 SW QD 280 NW QD
T096 265S 1605E 045 R034 130 NE QD 270 SE QD 300 SW QD 230 NW QD
T120 256S 1614E 040 R034 060 NE QD 170 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

>

2019-02-19 14:34

WTPS51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190219124900
2019021912 15P OMA 031 01 190 06 SATL 040
T000 206S 1620E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 213S 1614E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 220S 1607E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 229S 1600E 070 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 220 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 239S 1595E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 260 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 259S 1594E 050 R050 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 270 SE QD 320 SW QD 280 NW QD
T096 265S 1605E 045 R034 130 NE QD 270 SE QD 300 SW QD 230 NW QD
T120 256S 1614E 040 R034 060 NE QD 170 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 162.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.0S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.9S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.9S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.9S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.6S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021912 206S1620E 75
1519021912 206S1620E 75
1519021912 206S1620E 75
NNNN

>

2019-02-19 13:59

WTPS31 PGTW 191500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 162.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-19 13:33

WTPS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 162.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.0S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.9S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.9S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.9S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.6S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 191132Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5
TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY
BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND,
POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL,
CONVERGENT WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST
(LESS THAN 26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-19 09:19

WTPS31 PGTW 190900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 162.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-19 09:14

WTPS51 PGTW 190900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190219073901
2019021906 15P OMA 030 01 210 06 SATL 030
T000 200S 1621E 075 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 209S 1615E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 216S 1609E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 223S 1602E 080 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD
190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 233S 1594E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
210 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 255S 1589E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 220 SE QD 270 SW QD 230 NW QD
T096 268S 1601E 050 R050 010 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW QD 240 NW QD
T120 257S 1610E 040 R034 080 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

>

2019-02-19 09:04

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 162.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.6S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.3S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.8S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.7S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 190551Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5
(77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS OVER
NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND, POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN
26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//

>

2019-02-19 08:57

WTPS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190219073901
2019021906 15P OMA 030 01 210 06 SATL 030
T000 200S 1621E 075 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 209S 1615E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 216S 1609E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 223S 1602E 080 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 233S 1594E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 255S 1589E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD 270 SW Q
D 230 NW QD
T096 268S 1601E 050 R050 010 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW Q
D 240 NW QD
T120 257S 1610E 040 R034 080 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 162.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.6S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.3S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.8S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.7S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021900 195S1624E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75
1519021906 200S1621E 75

>

2019-02-19 03:28

WTPS51 PGTW 190300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190219023245
2019021900 15P OMA 029 01 210 08 SATL 060
T000 197S 1623E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 205S 1617E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD
180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 213S 1610E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 221S 1602E 080 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD
180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 233S 1594E 070 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD
190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 253S 1587E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 269S 1598E 055 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 250 SE QD 270 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 278S 1629E 050 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 240 SE QD 260 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

>

2019-02-19 03:28

WTPS31 PGTW 190300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-19 03:13

WTPS51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190219023245
2019021900 15P OMA 029 01 210 08 SATL 060
T000 197S 1623E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 205S 1617E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 213S 1610E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 221S 1602E 080 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 233S 1594E 070 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 253S 1587E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 269S 1598E 055 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 270 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 278S 1629E 050 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 260 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.1S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.3S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.9S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.8S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021900 197S1623E 75
1519021900 197S1623E 75
1519021900 197S1623E 75
NNNN

>

2019-02-19 03:12

WTPS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.1S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.3S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.9S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.8S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND RAIN BANDS WRAP INTO A
RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
182303Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW 4.5
(77 KNOTS) AND KNES 5.0 (90 KNOTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED
TO 75 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE
PERSISTANTLY RAGGED STRUCTURE OF THE EYE AND CONVECTION WILL SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER
LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER
FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 15P
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE
STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE ALONG AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
FUEL AN INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
AS A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, BUT
SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
ACCOUNTS FOR THIS WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION BEYOND TAU 72.
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS INCLUDE THE ECMI, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EGRI, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM FAR TO THE EAST.
THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU
48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z.//

>

2019-02-18 21:44

WTPS51 PGTW 182100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218203421
2019021818 15P OMA 028 01 215 06 SATL 050
T000 190S 1627E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 198S 1621E 065 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 206S 1616E 065 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 222S 1604E 065 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 243S 1594E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 263S 1596E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 200 SE QD 260 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 273S 1619E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 210 SE QD 270 SW QD 260 NW QD
T120 281S 1653E 050 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 230 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-18 21:44

WTPS31 PGTW 182100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.8S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-18 21:21

WTPS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218203421
2019021818 15P OMA 028 01 215 06 SATL 050
T000 190S 1627E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T012 198S 1621E 065 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T024 206S 1616E 065 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T036 222S 1604E 065 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T048 243S 1594E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T072 263S 1596E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 260 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T096 273S 1619E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD 270 SW Q
D 260 NW QD
T120 281S 1653E 050 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 280 SW Q
D 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.8S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.6S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.2S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.3S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 28.1S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 162.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021818 190S1627E 60
1519021818 190S1627E 60

>

2019-02-18 21:21

WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.8S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.6S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.2S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.3S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 28.1S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 162.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS
CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND RAIN BANDS WRAP INTO A RAGGED EYE-LIKE
FEATURE SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE TC
REMAINS EXPANSIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A 181717Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF PGTW 4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND KNES 4.5 (77 KNOTS), THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 60 KNOTS, GIVEN THE
RAGGED NATURE OF THE LARGE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE ALONG AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION THAT
WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND BY TAU 120 WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AS A STORM-FORCE COLD-
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, BUT SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTERWARD. SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS INCLUDE THE ECMI, WHICH INDICATES A
TRACK OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EGRI, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP
TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z
AND 192100Z.//

>

2019-02-18 14:50

WTPS31 PGTW 181500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 163.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 163.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.5S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-18 14:49

WTPS51 PGTW 181500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218133035
2019021812 15P OMA 027 01 225 07 SATL 030
T000 185S 1631E 050 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 195S 1624E 055 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 204S 1619E 060 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 213S 1614E 055 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 221S 1610E 055 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 240S 1603E 050 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 263S 1604E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 190 SE QD 250 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 290S 1640E 045 R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 163.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-18 14:44

WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 163.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 163.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.5S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.4S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.1S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.0S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.0S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 162.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AS
RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER TOWARD A BROAD AND RAGGED, BUT DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE TC REMAINS EXPANSIVE WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 181044Z AMSU IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 181014Z 25KM
RESOLUTION PARTIAL PASS THAT SHOWS NUMEROUS 50-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC 15P IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS
PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT
OF A POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND IS
NOW TRACKING OVER 26-27 CELSIUS SSTS. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE
DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY, AROUND TAU 96, TC
15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL
TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND
FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48
THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. NOTABLE OUTLIERS INCLUDE
NAVGEM TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A 180
DEGREE EQUATORWARD TRACK REVERSAL AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-18 14:30

WTPS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218133035
2019021812 15P OMA 027 01 225 07 SATL 030
T000 185S 1631E 050 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T012 195S 1624E 055 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T024 204S 1619E 060 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T036 213S 1614E 055 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T048 221S 1610E 055 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T072 240S 1603E 050 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T096 263S 1604E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 250 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T120 290S 1640E 045 R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 163.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 163.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.5S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.4S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.1S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.0S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.0S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 162.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 180S1636E 45
1519021812 185S1631E 50
1519021812 185S1631E 50

>

2019-02-18 08:28

WTPS51 PGTW 180900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218073820
2019021806 15P OMA 026 01 215 11 SATL 025
T000 182S 1633E 045 R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 193S 1626E 050 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 204S 1620E 055 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 213S 1615E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 221S 1611E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD
200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 237S 1606E 055 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 262S 1609E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 190 SE QD 250 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 289S 1636E 045 R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-18 08:25

WTPS31 PGTW 180900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.4S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-18 08:23

WTPS51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218073820
2019021806 15P OMA 026 01 215 11 SATL 025
T000 182S 1633E 045 R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 193S 1626E 050 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T024 204S 1620E 055 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T036 213S 1615E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T048 221S 1611E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 237S 1606E 055 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T096 262S 1609E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 250 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T120 289S 1636E 045 R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.4S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.3S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.1S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.7S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.2S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.9S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 163.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021806 182S1633E 45

>

2019-02-18 08:21

WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.4S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.3S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.1S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.7S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.2S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.9S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 163.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL AND WEAKEN AS
EVIDENCED BY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS AND EXPANDING FRAGMENTED RAIN
BANDS. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE MAINTAINED A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM
PGTW AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN A POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 24-25 CELSIUS, A RESULT OF TC-INDUCED
UPWELLING. THE NET ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT IS WEAKENING INTENSITY. TC
OMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND
THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65
KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST.
CONCURRENTLY, AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTERWARD. NOTABLE OUTLIERS INCLUDE NAVGEM TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE, AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A 180 DEGREE EQUATORWARD TRACK
REVERSAL AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//

>

2019-02-18 02:25

WTPS51 PGTW 180300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218014823
2019021800 15P OMA 025 01 215 06 SATL 040
T000 173S 1640E 050 R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034
195 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 183S 1634E 050 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 194S 1627E 055 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 205S 1622E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD
180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 217S 1618E 070 R064 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD
200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 235S 1613E 055 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 267S 1625E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 190 SE QD 250 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 309S 1668E 045 R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

>

2019-02-18 02:25

WTPS31 PGTW 180300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.3S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-18 02:21

WTPS51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218014823
2019021800 15P OMA 025 01 215 06 SATL 040
T000 173S 1640E 050 R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 165 NW QD
T012 183S 1634E 050 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T024 194S 1627E 055 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T036 205S 1622E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 217S 1618E 070 R064 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 235S 1613E 055 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T096 267S 1625E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 250 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T120 309S 1668E 045 R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.3S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.4S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.7S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.5S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.7S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.9S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 163.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED S
OUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMIATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD P
ARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AT WARNING TIME TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLC
C, BUT IS GROWING IN EXTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPO
SED LLCC AND SUPPORTED BY A 172214Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED AGAIN TO A GENEROUS 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INT
ENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, PHFO AND NFFN AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. AN AD
VANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE SHOWED T2.9 (39 KNOTS) WHILE A SATCON ESTIMATE INDICATED 52 KNOTS
AT 1720000Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE AREA, WITH LO
W (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE ONLY INHIBITOR AT THE CURRENT TIME IS TH
E SST, WHICH IS STILL RELATIVELY COOL (24-25 CELSIUS) DUE TO UPWELLING. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CON
TINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE COOL UPWELLED POOL, SSTS WILL INCREASE TO 27-28 CELSIUS AND SUPPORT REIN
TENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LA
YER STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAMOA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST THRO
UGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERIN INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVE
S WEST OF FIJI AND REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH TC 15P ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT INTO WARMER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY, REACHING A PEA
K OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND VWS CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO BE
GIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES SOUT
HEASTWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGR
EEMENT THOUGH TAU 48, WITH ONLY THE NAVGEM AND ECMF SOLUTIONS DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY, LYING TO TH
E WEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND TAU 72, THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE SPEED OF ADVANCE AFTER THE TURN SOUTHEAST. ECM
WF AND NAVGEM HOWEVER SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST, AWAY FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE GU
IDANCE, LEADING TO A 850NM SPREAD BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS THERE IS H
IGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAV
E HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021712 164S1644E 60
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021718 168S1644E 55
1519021800 173S1640E 50
1519021800 173S1640E 50

>

2019-02-18 02:21

WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.3S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.4S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.7S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.5S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.7S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.9S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 163.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM WEST OF PORT
VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A VERY BROAD PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
AT WARNING TIME TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC, BUT IS GROWING IN
EXTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC AND SUPPORTED BY A 172214Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED AGAIN TO A GENEROUS 50
KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, PHFO AND NFFN AND
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
SHOWED T2.9 (39 KNOTS) WHILE A SATCON ESTIMATE INDICATED 52 KNOTS AT
1720000Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE AREA, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. THE ONLY INHIBITOR AT THE CURRENT TIME IS THE SST, WHICH IS
STILL RELATIVELY COOL (24-25 CELSIUS) DUE TO UPWELLING. HOWEVER, AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE COOL UPWELLED POOL, SSTS WILL
INCREASE TO 27-28 CELSIUS AND SUPPORT REINTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAMOA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES
WEST OF FIJI AND REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH TC 15P ONTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT INTO WARMER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND VWS CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT
RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 48,
WITH ONLY THE NAVGEM AND ECMF SOLUTIONS DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY, LYING
TO THE WEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND TAU 72, THE BULK OF
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH SOME
VARIATIONS IN THE SPEED OF ADVANCE AFTER THE TURN SOUTHEAST. ECMWF AND
NAVGEM HOWEVER SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST, AWAY FROM
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO A 850NM SPREAD BY TAU 120.
DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//

>

2019-02-17 20:32

WTPS51 PGTW 172100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190217194428
2019021718 15P OMA 024 01 215 04 SATL 040
T000 166S 1641E 055 R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 173S 1636E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 185S 1629E 065 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 200S 1622E 075 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 212S 1616E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 229S 1611E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 257S 1618E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 180 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 303S 1655E 055 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 230 SE QD 280 SW QD 230 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

>

2019-02-17 20:32

WTPS31 PGTW 172100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.3S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-17 20:24

WTPS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190217194428
2019021718 15P OMA 024 01 215 04 SATL 040
T000 166S 1641E 055 R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 145 NW QD
T012 173S 1636E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T024 185S 1629E 065 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 200S 1622E 075 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 212S 1616E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 229S 1611E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 257S 1618E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 180 NW QD
T120 303S 1655E 055 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 280 SW Q
D 230 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.3S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.0S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.2S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.9S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.7S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.3S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 164.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE I
MAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC AND POCKETS OF FLAR
ING BUT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WELL DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171727Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMA
GE, WHICH ALSO SHOWED THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL INT
ENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KN
ES AND PGTW OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW P
ROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. HOWEVER, A DAY AND A HALF OF QUASISTATIONARY MOVEME
NT HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING AND THE DEVLOPMENT A LARGE COOL POCKET OF SSTS (AS LOW AS 24 C
ELSIUS) AROUND THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO THE DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY. TC 15P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHW
ESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINU
E TO ACCELERATE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF PREVIOU
SLY MENTIONED STR. DURING THIS PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COLD POOL AND INTO SIGNIF
ICANTLY WARMER WATERS AND BEINGS TO TAP INTO THE DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROAC
HING TROUGH, EXPECT IT TO INTENSIFY STEADILY, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72
, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR AXIS AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE S
YSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO COMBINED INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS
AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FOREC
AST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF, WHICH REMAINS THE SINGLE OUTLIER TAKING THE TRACK WEST
TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST BEYOND TAU 72, LEADING TO A 700 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT TAU 12
0. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERATINTY BETWEEN THE HISTORICALLY WELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH LOW CO
NFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021706 160S1643E 60
1519021712 163S1643E 60
1519021712 163S1643E 60
1519021718 166S1641E 55
1519021718 166S1641E 55

>

2019-02-17 20:23

WTPS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.3S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.0S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.2S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.9S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.7S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.3S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 164.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH AN EXPOSED
LLCC AND POCKETS OF FLARING BUT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WELL
DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171727Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO SHOWED THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE
LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE
OF 59 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. HOWEVER, A DAY AND A HALF OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT A LARGE COOL POCKET OF SSTS (AS LOW AS 24 CELSIUS) AROUND
THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO THE DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY. TC 15P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
TO THE EAST. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STR. DURING THIS PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE COLD POOL INTO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS AND BEGINS TO TAP
INTO THE DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH,
EXPECT IT TO INTENSIFY STEADILY, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU
48. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR
AXIS AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO COMBINED INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF, WHICH REMAINS THE
SINGLE OUTLIER TAKING THE TRACK WEST TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST
BEYOND TAU 72, LEADING TO A 700 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT TAU 120.
DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE HISTORICALLY WELL-PERFORMING
ECMWF AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//

>

2019-02-17 14:31

WTPS51 PGTW 171500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190217132920
2019021712 15P OMA 023 01 170 05 SATL 025
T000 163S 1643E 060 R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 172S 1640E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 184S 1635E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD
160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 198S 1628E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD
180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 209S 1623E 080 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD
190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 229S 1616E 060 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 258S 1618E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 303S 1646E 050 R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 290 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

>

2019-02-17 14:31

WTPS31 PGTW 171500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-17 14:17

WTPS51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190217132920
2019021712 15P OMA 023 01 170 05 SATL 025
T000 163S 1643E 060 R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T012 172S 1640E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T024 184S 1635E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 198S 1628E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 209S 1623E 080 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 229S 1616E 060 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T096 258S 1618E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 180 NW QD
T120 303S 1646E 050 R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 290 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.8S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.9S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.3S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 158S1642E 60
1519021706 158S1642E 60
1519021712 163S1643E 60
1519021712 163S1643E 60

>

2019-02-17 14:14

WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.8S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.9S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.3S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE
FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-17 08:36

WTPS51 PGTW 170900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190217070532
2019021706 15P OMA 022 01 170 06 SATL 020
T000 161S 1643E 060 R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
195 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 171S 1641E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 184S 1637E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD
160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 197S 1630E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD
180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 209S 1625E 080 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD
190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 229S 1619E 060 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 254S 1619E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 296S 1639E 045 R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 290 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

>

2019-02-17 08:36

WTPS31 PGTW 170900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-17 08:23

WTPS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190217070532
2019021706 15P OMA 022 01 170 06 SATL 020
T000 161S 1643E 060 R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T012 171S 1641E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T024 184S 1637E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 197S 1630E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 209S 1625E 080 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 229S 1619E 060 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T096 254S 1619E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 180 NW QD
T120 296S 1639E 045 R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 290 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.4S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.7S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.9S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 25.4S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 29.6S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021706 161S1643E 60
1519021706 161S1643E 60

>

2019-02-17 08:22

WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.4S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.7S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.9S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 25.4S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 29.6S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE TC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF A RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
IN THE 170437Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD
BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28 CELSIUS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TC 15P HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM A
COL AREA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMED STEERING.
AFTER TAU 96, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AT THAT STAGE, TC OMA WILL ALSO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SPREAD OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//

>

2019-02-17 02:33

WTPS51 PGTW 170300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190217012124
2019021700 15P OMA 021 01 225 03 SATL 030
T000 155S 1642E 065 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 145 SE QD
130 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 161S 1641E 065 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD
145 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 173S 1638E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 185S 1633E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD
150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 196S 1627E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD
160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 216S 1617E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD
180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 234S 1611E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD
200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 266S 1618E 055 R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

>

2019-02-17 02:33

WTPS31 PGTW 170300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-17 02:09

WTPS51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190217012124
2019021700 15P OMA 021 01 225 03 SATL 030
T000 155S 1642E 065 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 161S 1641E 065 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 173S 1638E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 185S 1633E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 196S 1627E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 216S 1617E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 234S 1611E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 266S 1618E 055 R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.5S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.6S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.6S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.4S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.6S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65
1519021700 155S1642E 65

>

2019-02-17 02:08

WTPS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.5S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.6S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.6S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.4S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.6S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 162204Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). THE EAST TO WEST SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND ENHANCE
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC. TC 15P CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 15P REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
AND HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RESULT OF A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND ALLOW TC 15P TO INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AS TC 15P TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 18, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE, ALLOWING TC 15P TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY,
EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A
SPREAD OF ONLY 58 NM. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT BY TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 510 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//

>

2019-02-16 20:43

WTPS51 PGTW 162100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190216195917
2019021618 15P OMA 020 01 090 02 SATL 030
T000 153S 1644E 065 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD
145 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 157S 1644E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD
145 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 166S 1641E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 178S 1637E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD
150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 190S 1630E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD
160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 209S 1620E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD
180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 224S 1609E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD
200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 244S 1604E 055 R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

>

2019-02-16 20:43

WTPS31 PGTW 162100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.7S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-16 20:37

WTPS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190216195917
2019021618 15P OMA 020 01 090 02 SATL 030
T000 153S 1644E 065 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 145 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 157S 1644E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 166S 1641E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 178S 1637E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 190S 1630E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 209S 1620E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 224S 1609E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 244S 1604E 055 R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.7S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.6S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.8S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.0S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.4S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 164.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65
1519021618 153S1644E 65

>

2019-02-16 20:37

WTPS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.7S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.6S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.8S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.0S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.4S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 164.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 161803Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0
(65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CI ESTIMATE OF T4.5
(77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). THE EAST TO WEST SHEAR IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND ENHANCING CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LLCC. TC 15P ALSO HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 27 AND 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 15P IS DRIFTING EASTWARD AS A RESULT OF A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ALLOW TC 15P TO BEGIN TO TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE AS TC 15P TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. BY TAU
24 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE, ALLOWING
FOR TC 15P TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE
TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
172100Z.//

>

2019-02-16 15:25

WTPS51 PGTW 161500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190216133719
2019021612 15P OMA 019 01 360 01 SATL 030
T000 153S 1642E 070 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD
135 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 156S 1641E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 162S 1639E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 173S 1635E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD
150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 184S 1629E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD
160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 203S 1617E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD
180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 219S 1605E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD
200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 238S 1595E 060 R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

>

2019-02-16 15:25

WTPS31 PGTW 161500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.6S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-16 15:01

WTPS51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190216133719
2019021612 15P OMA 019 01 360 01 SATL 030
T000 153S 1642E 070 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 156S 1641E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 162S 1639E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 173S 1635E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 184S 1629E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 203S 1617E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 219S 1605E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 238S 1595E 060 R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.6S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.2S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.3S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.9S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.8S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021606 154S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70
1519021612 153S1642E 70

>

2019-02-16 15:00

WTPS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.6S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.2S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.3S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.9S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.8S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 15P CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, WITH STRONG
BANDING FEATURES FORMING AND WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 161056Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
70 KNOTS, IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND NFFN, AND A PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A 161240Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW LOCATED
OVERTOP OF THE LLCC PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DESPITE
THE ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERALLY FAVORABLE, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS CAUSING THE UPWELLING OF
COOLER WATERS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION. THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM IS THE RESULT OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 12, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER
WARMER WATERS AND INTENSIFYING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS IT DEVELOPS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND VWS INCREASES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
SHOWING THE SLOW INITIAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 48, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO OVER 400 MILES BY TAU 120. THE PRINCIPLE
OUTLIER IS NAVGEM, WITH A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
WEST THAN THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INITIAL QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM,
COMBINED WITH THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TAUS LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-16 08:22

WTPS51 PGTW 160900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190216073535
2019021606 15P OMA 018 01 245 02 SATL 060
T000 155S 1641E 070 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD
125 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 155S 1639E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 161S 1636E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 170S 1635E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 179S 1631E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 200S 1619E 090 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 215S 1606E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD
180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 232S 1595E 065 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-16 08:19

WTPS31 PGTW 160900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-16 08:18

WTPS51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190216073535
2019021606 15P OMA 018 01 245 02 SATL 060
T000 155S 1641E 070 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 155S 1639E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 161S 1636E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 170S 1635E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 179S 1631E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 200S 1619E 090 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 215S 1606E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 232S 1595E 065 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.1S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.9S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.0S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.5S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.2S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME GENERALLY MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED INTO SYMMETRICAL BANDS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
OBSCURED BY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 160455Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER-LEVELS SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70 KNOTS, AND IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A KNES CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KNOTS), A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS),
AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF
70 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE THAT WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST, NO SETTLING IN NEARLY DIRECTLY
OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS HAD THE EFFECT OF REDUCING THE VWS,
WHILE ALSO IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW, COMBINING TO EFFECT THE
INCREASED ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THESE POSITIVE FACTORS ARE BEING
OFFSET BY THE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FORWARD TRANSLATION, WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR THE UPWELLING OF MUCH COOLER WATERS, RESULTING IN A
STEADY INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE CURRENT MOTION IS A VERY SLOW TWO
KNOTS, OR QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IN A COL REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
WEAK STEERING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSETTING ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. BEYOND TAU 24, A DEVELOPING
STR TO THE EAST WILL SERVE TO EJECT TC 15P ONTO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER
WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAT TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS IT
BEGINS TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, WITH ALL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING THE SLOW INITIAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECASTS AFTER TAU 48, WITH THE
NAVGEM MODEL TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST BY TAU 120, AND THE GFS
INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SYSTEM AND TURNING TC 15P
SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK. OVERALL DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z,
170300Z AND 170900Z.//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021518 153S1645E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021600 154S1643E 70
1519021606 155S1641E 70
1519021606 155S1641E 70
1519021606 155S1641E 70

>

2019-02-16 08:17

WTPS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.1S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.9S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.0S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.5S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.2S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME GENERALLY MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED INTO SYMMETRICAL BANDS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
OBSCURED BY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 160455Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER-LEVELS SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70 KNOTS, AND IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A KNES CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KNOTS), A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS AND A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
POINT SOURCE THAT WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST, NOW SETTLING IN NEARLY
DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS HAD THE EFFECT OF REDUCING
THE VWS, WHILE ALSO IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW, COMBINING TO EFFECT
THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THESE POSITIVE FACTORS ARE BEING
OFFSET BY THE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FORWARD TRANSLATION, WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR THE UPWELLING OF MUCH COOLER WATERS, RESULTING IN A
STEADY INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE CURRENT MOTION IS A VERY SLOW TWO
KNOTS, OR QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IN A COL REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
WEAK STEERING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSETTING ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. BEYOND TAU 24, A DEVELOPING
STR TO THE EAST WILL SERVE TO EJECT TC 15P ONTO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER
WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS IT
BEGINS TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, WITH ALL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING THE SLOW INITIAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECASTS AFTER TAU 48, WITH THE
NAVGEM MODEL TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST BY TAU 120, AND THE GFS
INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SYSTEM AND TURNING TC 15P
SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK. OVERALL DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z,
162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//

>

2019-02-16 02:46

WTPS51 PGTW 160300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190216013606
2019021600 15P OMA 017 01 255 04 SATL 040
T000 155S 1639E 070 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD
125 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 156S 1634E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 159S 1632E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD
140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 167S 1631E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD
140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 177S 1628E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 200S 1613E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD
170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 213S 1604E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD
190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 234S 1591E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD
170 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-16 02:45

WTPS31 PGTW 160300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 163.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.6S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-16 02:44

WTPS51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190216013606
2019021600 15P OMA 017 01 255 04 SATL 040
T000 155S 1639E 070 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 156S 1634E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 159S 1632E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 167S 1631E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 177S 1628E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 200S 1613E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 213S 1604E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 234S 1591E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 163.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.6S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.0S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.4S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 163.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 154S1643E 70
1519021518 154S1643E 70
1519021518 154S1643E 70
1519021600 155S1639E 70
1519021600 155S1639E 70
1519021600 155S1639E 70

>

2019-02-16 02:43

WTPS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 163.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.6S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.0S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.4S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 163.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION SHEARED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP.
NO MICROWAVE IMAGES WERE AVAILABLE SO THE POSITION WAS PLACED TO THE
EAST OF MID-LEVEL TURNING BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATION OF
DECOUPLING BETWEEN THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 70 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A 160040Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT TC 15P IS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING
OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OVER ALL
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME. TC OMA IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT CAUSING SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.
THE SLOW, GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALSO CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE WHILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THE WILL
PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
SHOWING SLOW SPEED THROUGH TAU 24 AND SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION
SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS POINT. BEYOND TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO DIVERGE, REACHING A SPREAD OF OVER 300NM BY TAU 120.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, AND THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD IN
THE LONG TERM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//

>

2019-02-15 20:56

WTPS51 PGTW 152100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190215195642
2019021518 15P OMA 016 01 240 06 SATL 040
T000 155S 1643E 070 R064 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 120 SE QD
135 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 157S 1637E 070 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 160S 1632E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 164S 1631E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 172S 1629E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 193S 1616E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 206S 1602E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 218S 1588E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-15 20:56

WTPS31 PGTW 152100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.7S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-15 20:54

WTPS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190215195642
2019021518 15P OMA 016 01 240 06 SATL 040
T000 155S 1643E 070 R064 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 157S 1637E 070 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 160S 1632E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 164S 1631E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 172S 1629E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 193S 1616E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 206S 1602E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 218S 1588E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.7S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.0S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.4S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.2S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.6S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK
FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SEQUENCE OF HIGH RESOLUTION 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGES BETWEEN 151548Z AND 151815Z, EACH DEPICTING A LOWER-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC SIGNATURE AT THE
UPPER-LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS ASSESSSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BASED ON A 151542Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 15P LIES IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
AREA, WITH MODERATE VWS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PROVIDED BY A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SSTS.
THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS STOPPED, DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS,
INCLUDING UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION, AND
THE OFFSETTING OF THE OUTFLOW BY VWS. TC 15P IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC
15P WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK
AND COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN STAGNANT AS COOLER UPWELLED WATERS AND VWS CONTINUE TO
OFFSET ROBUST OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 36, A STR BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN TO THE
EAST AND RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD LEADING TC 15P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST AND OVER WARMER WATERS, VWS ALSO WEAKENS,
ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS AT TAU 96. THEREAFTER
EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AS VWS INCREASES,
SSTS APPROACH 27 CELSIUS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH ALL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED THROUGH TAU 36 AND
SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS POINT. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
WIDENS IN THE LATER TAUS HOWEVER, WITH A 320 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS
NAVGEM AND GFS AT TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND CLOSE THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE
MODEL SPREAD IN LATER TAUS THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021512 152S1648E 70
1519021518 155S1643E 70
1519021518 155S1643E 70
1519021518 155S1643E 70

>

2019-02-15 20:53

WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.7S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.0S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.4S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.2S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.6S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK
FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SEQUENCE OF HIGH RESOLUTION 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGES BETWEEN 151548Z AND 151815Z, EACH DEPICTING A LOWER-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC SIGNATURE AT THE
UPPER-LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BASED ON A 151542Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 15P LIES IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE VWS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND WARM (29
CELSIUS) SSTS. THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS STOPPED, DUE TO
SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS DUE TO THE
SLOW FORWARD MOTION, AND THE OFFSETTING OF THE OUTFLOW BY VWS. TC
15P IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STAGNANT AS COOLER UPWELLED WATERS AND VWS CONTINUE TO OFFSET ROBUST
OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 36, A STR BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND
RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD LEADING TC 15P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST AND OVER WARMER WATERS, VWS ALSO
WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS AT
TAU 96. THEREAFTER EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS VWS INCREASES, SSTS APPROACH 27 CELSIUS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ALL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON
THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED THROUGH TAU 36 AND SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION
SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS POINT. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WIDENS IN THE
LATER TAUS HOWEVER, WITH A 320 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS NAVGEM AND
GFS AT TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND CLOSE THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD IN LATER TAUS THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND
162100Z.//

>

2019-02-15 15:27

WTPS51 PGTW 151500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190215141935
2019021512 15P OMA 015 01 245 05 SATL 030
T000 153S 1646E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 115 SE QD
140 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 155S 1642E 075 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 157S 1638E 075 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 130 SE QD
140 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 159S 1635E 075 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD
140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 168S 1632E 080 R064 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 190S 1624E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 205S 1610E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 218S 1594E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD
190 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-15 15:27

WTPS31 PGTW 151500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-15 14:44

WTPS51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190215141935
2019021512 15P OMA 015 01 245 05 SATL 030
T000 153S 1646E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 115 SE QD 140 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 155S 1642E 075 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 157S 1638E 075 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 159S 1635E 075 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 168S 1632E 080 R064 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 190S 1624E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 205S 1610E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 218S 1594E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.8S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.0S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.8S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 164.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021506 151S1651E 65
1519021512 153S1646E 70
1519021512 153S1646E 70
1519021512 153S1646E 70

>

2019-02-15 14:44

WTPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.8S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.0S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.8S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 164.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A DEVELOPING RAGGED EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 151008Z ASCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 15P HAS
CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 15-20
KNOTS, HAS RESTRAINED THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 15P HAS TURNED
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THAT
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALTHOUGH FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL
SPEED WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLOW DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AFTER TAU 36, PUSHING THE SYSTEM
ON A MORE RAPID, POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED AS NEAR-TERM MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOLLOWED BY
COOLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET THE POSITIVE
INFLUENCE OF AN IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TRACK DIRECTION. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THE
PREVIOUS TWO JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS AND A GROUPING OF MODEL
TRACKERS THAT INCLUDES THE A MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z.//

>

2019-02-15 09:23

WTPS51 PGTW 150900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190215080241
2019021506 15P OMA 014 01 045 01 SATL 030
T000 150S 1651E 065 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 105 SE QD
160 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 151S 1647E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 153S 1642E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 120 SE QD
140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 155S 1638E 070 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD
140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 160S 1635E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 182S 1630E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD
160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 199S 1613E 090 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD
160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 211S 1598E 090 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
180 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-15 09:23

WTPS31 PGTW 150900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-15 08:55

WTPS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190215080241
2019021506 15P OMA 014 01 045 01 SATL 030
T000 150S 1651E 065 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 105 SE QD 160 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 151S 1647E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 153S 1642E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 155S 1638E 070 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 160S 1635E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 182S 1630E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 199S 1613E 090 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 211S 1598E 090 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.3S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.2S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021500 151S1650E 60
1519021506 150S1651E 65
1519021506 150S1651E 65
1519021506 150S1651E 65

>

2019-02-15 08:54

WTPS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.3S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.2S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTHWEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN 150503Z SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TC 15P HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 20-25
KNOTS, HAS RESTRAINED THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 15P IS MOVING
SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND THIS SLOW MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE NEAR-TERM. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND ESTABLISH ITSELF AS
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, MOVING TC 15P ON A SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BY TAU 48. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED AS NEAR-TERM MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOLLOWED BY
COOLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET THE POSITIVE
INFLUENCE OF AN IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TRACK DIRECTION. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A
GROUPING OF MODEL TRACKERS THAT INCLUDES THE ECMWF, UKMET AND GALWEM
GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z
AND 160900Z.//

>

2019-02-15 04:19

WTPS51 PGTW 150300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190215014826
2019021500 15P OMA 013 01 295 02 SATL 045
T000 151S 1652E 060 R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 080 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 153S 1648E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD
130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 155S 1643E 065 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 110 SE QD
130 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 157S 1638E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 100 SE QD
130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 161S 1636E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD
150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 181S 1630E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD
150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 202S 1615E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD
150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 217S 1605E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD
160 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

>

2019-02-15 04:19

WTPS31 PGTW 150300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.3S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-15 03:13

WTPS51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190215014826
2019021500 15P OMA 013 01 295 02 SATL 045
T000 151S 1652E 060 R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 080 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T012 153S 1648E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 155S 1643E 065 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 157S 1638E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 161S 1636E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 181S 1630E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 202S 1615E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 217S 1605E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.3S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.2S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.7S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 165.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021418 152S1654E 55
1519021500 151S1652E 60
1519021500 151S1652E 60

>

2019-02-15 03:02

WTPS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.3S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.2S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.7S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 165.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED CENTER. A 142246Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 55-60KT
WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SHEAR VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AT 20-25KTS,
BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 15-20KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 3.5 (55KTS) TO 4.0 (65KTS), AND A 142243Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING
AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK OF
90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//

>

2019-02-14 22:10

WTPS51 PGTW 142100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190214193510
2019021418 15P OMA 012 01 200 03 SATL 040
T000 154S 1654E 055 R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
165 NE QD 105 SE QD 115 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 157S 1652E 055 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 160S 1649E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 162S 1643E 055 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 165S 1639E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 178S 1632E 060 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 196S 1621E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 215S 1605E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

>

2019-02-14 21:14

WTPS51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190214193510
2019021418 15P OMA 012 01 200 03 SATL 040
T000 154S 1654E 055 R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 105 SE QD 115 SW Q
D 180 NW QD
T012 157S 1652E 055 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T024 160S 1649E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 180 NW QD
T036 162S 1643E 055 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T048 165S 1639E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T072 178S 1632E 060 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T096 196S 1621E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 215S 1605E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.7S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.2S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.5S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.6S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 165.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021412 151S1655E 55
1519021418 154S1654E 55
1519021418 154S1654E 55

>

2019-02-14 21:11

WTPS31 PGTW 142100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.7S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-14 21:03

WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.7S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.2S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.5S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.6S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 165.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 141628Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 27-29
DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SHEAR VALUES
HAVE INCREASED TO 25-30KTS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 20-25KTS AS
THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55KTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY
TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, A SERIES OF MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST
TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-14 15:07

WTPS51 PGTW 141500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190214142115
2019021412 15P OMA 011 01 205 07 SATL 060
T000 155S 1652E 055 R050 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 158S 1650E 055 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 161S 1647E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 164S 1642E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 166S 1637E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 177S 1631E 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 196S 1622E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 212S 1607E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

>

2019-02-14 15:07

WTPS31 PGTW 141500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.8S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-14 14:54

WTPS51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190214142115
2019021412 15P OMA 011 01 205 07 SATL 060
T000 155S 1652E 055 R050 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T012 158S 1650E 055 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 180 NW QD
T024 161S 1647E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T036 164S 1642E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T048 166S 1637E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T072 177S 1631E 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T096 196S 1622E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 212S 1607E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.8S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.4S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.6S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.7S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.6S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.2S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 165.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021412 155S1652E 55
1519021412 155S1652E 55

>

2019-02-14 14:53

WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.8S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.4S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.6S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.7S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.6S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.2S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 165.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
MOST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. A 141028Z AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING, THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DEFINITIVELY DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU
IMAGE AND UPPER LEVEL ROTATION IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES T3.8 (61
KTS) AT 141340Z. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A POINT SOURCE TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING FOR GOOD
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT OUTFLOW IS WEAK IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE HIGH (25-
30 KTS), HINDERING NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES,
AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THE SHORT-TERM
TRACK FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING ECMWF,
GALWEM, AND THE UKMET, SHOW A KINK IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
BEFORE SETTLING THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WHILE OTHER
MODELS PREDICT AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM THE ONSET.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST IS
FORECAST TO BUILD AT THE SAME TIME THAT AN EXTENSION OF ANOTHER STR
OVER AUSTRALIA FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 15P. AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES
OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE STR
EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH, AND RE-ORIENT THE STR TO THE EAST, LEADING
TO THE SYSTEM TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATING. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST
TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS TC 15P MOVES POLEWARD AND IS ABLE
TO TAP INTO THE PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT, TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KTS AT TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//

>

2019-02-14 09:15

WTPS51 PGTW 140900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190214083418
2019021406 15P OMA 010 01 180 02 SATL 060
T000 149S 1655E 055 R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 151S 1656E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 090 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 155S 1656E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 160S 1651E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 162S 1644E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 168S 1638E 050 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 185S 1630E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 204S 1616E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-14 09:15

WTPS31 PGTW 140900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.1S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-14 09:07

WTPS51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190214083418
2019021406 15P OMA 010 01 180 02 SATL 060
T000 149S 1655E 055 R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 085 NW QD
T012 151S 1656E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 090 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T024 155S 1656E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T036 160S 1651E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T048 162S 1644E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T072 168S 1638E 050 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T096 185S 1630E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T120 204S 1616E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.1S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.5S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.2S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.8S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.5S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.4S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021318 144S1654E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021400 147S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55
1519021406 149S1655E 55

>

2019-02-14 09:05

WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.1S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.5S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.2S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.8S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.5S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.4S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MOST
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. A 140516Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING AND THE LLCC TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 140516Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS). A 140733Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS
HIGHER, AT 66 KTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT
28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A POINT SOURCE TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING FOR
GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT OUTFLOW IS WEAK IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR V(VWS) VALUES ARE HIGH (25-
30 KTS), HINDERING NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES,
LEADING TO A MEANDERING, QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 24,
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF ANOTHER STR
OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE STR EXTENSION TO
THE SOUTH, AND RE-ORIENT THE STR TO THE EAST, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM
TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO
THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS TC 15P MOVES POLEWARD.
AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS TO
A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-14 03:58

WTPS31 PGTW 140300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.1S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-14 02:47

WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.1S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.2S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.7S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.6S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.9S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.7S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15P IS CLASSIFIED AS A VERY
LARGE SYSTEM WITH A DIAMETER OF APPROXIMATELY 530NM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE REGIONS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 132156Z METOP-A MHS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WHICH PROVIDES FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
CONDUCIVE AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL
SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 25-
30KTS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 15-20KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED OFF OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 3.5-4.0 (55-65KTS). ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT SMAP IMAGE
INDICATES 50-55KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK
MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC
15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A
PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND
150300Z.//

>

2019-02-13 21:06

WTPS51 PGTW 132100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190213195059
2019021318 15P OMA 008 01 180 06 SATL 045
T000 147S 1654E 055 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
220 NE QD 160 SE QD 200 SW QD 270 NW QD
T012 152S 1659E 055 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
230 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW QD 260 NW QD
T024 157S 1662E 060 R050 050 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 162S 1663E 055 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 169S 1660E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 177S 1646E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 190S 1634E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 208S 1623E 065 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-13 21:05

WTPS31 PGTW 132100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.2S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-13 21:03

WTPS51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190213195059
2019021318 15P OMA 008 01 180 06 SATL 045
T000 147S 1654E 055 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 160 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 270 NW QD
T012 152S 1659E 055 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 260 NW QD
T024 157S 1662E 060 R050 050 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 230 NW QD
T036 162S 1663E 055 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 190 NW QD
T048 169S 1660E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T072 177S 1646E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T096 190S 1634E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T120 208S 1623E 065 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.2S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.7S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.2S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.9S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.0S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.8S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 143S1654E 45
1519021306 144S1650E 45
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021312 141S1654E 55
1519021318 147S1654E 55
1519021318 147S1654E 55

>

2019-02-13 21:02

WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.2S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.7S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.2S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.9S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.0S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.8S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15P IS CLASSIFIED AS A VERY LARGE
SYSTEM WITH A DIAMETER OF APPROXIMATELY 560NM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ROTATING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
A 131857Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE POSITION AND ITS TRACK REFLECTS THE QUASISTATIONARY NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED DOWN TO 15-
20KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO 10-15KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 131050Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING 50-55KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-4.0 (45-65KTS).
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY
TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO
THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK
OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//

>

2019-02-13 14:53

WTPS31 PGTW 131500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.0S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 165.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.3S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-13 14:51

WTPS51 PGTW 131500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190213131200
2019021312 15P OMA 007 01 040 10 SATL 025
T000 140S 1650E 055 R050 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 090 SE QD 280 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 143S 1654E 060 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
220 NE QD 070 SE QD 130 SW QD 240 NW QD
T024 148S 1659E 055 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 070 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 154S 1662E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 161S 1661E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 174S 1651E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 190S 1636E 045 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 206S 1624E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.0S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-13 14:24

WTPS51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190213131200
2019021312 15P OMA 007 01 040 10 SATL 025
T000 140S 1650E 055 R050 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 090 SE QD 280 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T012 143S 1654E 060 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 070 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 240 NW QD
T024 148S 1659E 055 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 070 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T036 154S 1662E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T048 161S 1661E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T072 174S 1651E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 190S 1636E 045 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 206S 1624E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.0S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 165.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.3S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.8S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.4S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.6S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 165.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 144S1657E 45
1519021306 146S1651E 45
1519021309 144S1647E 50
1519021309 144S1647E 50
1519021312 140S1650E 55
1519021312 140S1650E 55

>

2019-02-13 14:24

WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.0S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 165.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.3S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.8S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.4S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.6S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 165.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT HAS CONTINUED
TO DEEPEN WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AND
SPLIT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE 131050Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS SHOWING NUMEROUS 50- TO
55-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG
(25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A QUASI-STATIONARY/LOOPING
MOTION IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE STR IS POISED
TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER
TAU 36, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
60 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS,
IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MEMBERS IN THE NEAR-TERM: HWRF OFFERS A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24
AND THE REST HAVE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND AT VARYING ALONG-TRACK
SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//

>

2019-02-13 08:58

WTPS51 PGTW 130900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190213075628
2019021306 15P OMA 006A 01 250 06 SATL 025
T000 146S 1651E 045 R034 145 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 205 NW QD
T012 148S 1655E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
230 NE QD 050 SE QD 130 SW QD 230 NW QD
T024 153S 1659E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 050 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 160S 1663E 045 R034 160 NE QD 030 SE QD 100 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 167S 1661E 040 R034 110 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 184S 1646E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 196S 1634E 040 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 130 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 213S 1623E 040 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006A RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

>

2019-02-13 08:58

WTPS31 PGTW 130900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.3S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

>

2019-02-13 08:52

WTPS51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190213075628
2019021306 15P OMA 006A 01 250 06 SATL 025
T000 146S 1651E 045 R034 145 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 205 NW QD
T012 148S 1655E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 050 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 230 NW QD
T024 153S 1659E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 050 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 210 NW QD
T036 160S 1663E 045 R034 160 NE QD 030 SE QD 100 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 167S 1661E 040 R034 110 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 184S 1646E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 196S 1634E 040 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 130 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 213S 1623E 040 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006A RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.3S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.0S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.4S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.6S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.3S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 165.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1658E 45
1519021300 144S1657E 45
1519021306 146S1651E 45

>

2019-02-13 08:52

WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.3S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.0S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.4S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.6S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.3S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 165.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, DISORGANIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH THE BULK OF ITS
CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD AND SPLIT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OF AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE EXPOSED FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
LINING UP WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC FEATURE IN THE 122218Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS LODGED IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST THAT IS POISED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAUS 12-24. AFTERWARD,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS,
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST
TRACK BUT WITH STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEMBERS IN THE NEAR-TERM:
GALWEM AND HWRF OFFER A CONTINUED REVERSE MOTION BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND THE REST AT VARYING ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF
THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//

>

2019-02-13 03:34

WTPS51 PGTW 130300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190213024205
2019021300 15P OMA 005 01 165 04 SATL 060
T000 144S 1661E 045 R034 175 NE QD 075 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 146S 1664E 050 R050 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 070 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 150S 1668E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 070 SE QD 160 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 156S 1674E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 050 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 163S 1677E 045 R034 130 NE QD 050 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 181S 1662E 040 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 193S 1644E 040 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 213S 1631E 040 R034 070 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 166.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 166.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6S 166.4E

>

2019-02-13 03:21

WTPS51 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190213024205
2019021300 15P OMA 005 01 165 04 SATL 060
T000 144S 1661E 045 R034 175 NE QD 075 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 146S 1664E 050 R050 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 070 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T024 150S 1668E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 070 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 190 NW QD
T036 156S 1674E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 050 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T048 163S 1677E 045 R034 130 NE QD 050 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 181S 1662E 040 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 193S 1644E 040 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 213S 1631E 040 R034 070 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 166.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 166.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.0S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.6S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.3S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.1S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.3S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.3S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 166.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1660E 45
1519021300 144S1661E 45

>

2019-02-13 03:06

WTPS31 PGTW 130300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 166.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 166.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.0S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-13 03:01

WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 166.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 166.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.0S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.6S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.3S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.1S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.3S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.3S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 166.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWESTWARD OF AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FROM MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG
(30-35 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA
ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
THEN, AFTER TAU 36, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AT TAUS 12-36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
AND COOLING SSTS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KTS BY
TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL TRACK CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-12 21:22

WTPS51 PGTW 122100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190212205227
2019021218 15P OMA 004 01 120 06 SATL 035
T000 140S 1660E 045 R034 185 NE QD 065 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 142S 1664E 050 R050 070 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 235 NW QD
T024 146S 1668E 050 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 100 SE QD 150 SW QD 250 NW QD
T036 151S 1672E 050 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 080 SE QD 150 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 159S 1674E 045 R034 160 NE QD 070 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 175S 1669E 040 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 186S 1652E 040 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 201S 1637E 040 R034 070 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 166.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 166.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.2S 166.4E

>

2019-02-12 21:22

WTPS31 PGTW 122100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 166.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 166.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-12 21:16

WTPS51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190212205227
2019021218 15P OMA 004 01 120 06 SATL 035
T000 140S 1660E 045 R034 185 NE QD 065 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 142S 1664E 050 R050 070 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 235 NW QD
T024 146S 1668E 050 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 100 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 250 NW QD
T036 151S 1672E 050 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 080 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 220 NW QD
T048 159S 1674E 045 R034 160 NE QD 070 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 175S 1669E 040 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 186S 1652E 040 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 201S 1637E 040 R034 070 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 166.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 166.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.1S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.5S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 166.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
1519021218 140S1660E 45

>

2019-02-12 21:15

WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 166.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 166.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.1S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.5S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 166.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD
OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FROM THE TIP OF THE CONVECTION SEEN
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE 121910Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE
IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 12, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTHWARD THEN,
AFTER TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
AND COOLING SSTS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KTS BY
TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL TRACK CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//

>

2019-02-12 14:42

WTPS51 PGTW 121500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190212134450
2019021212 15P OMA 003 01 090 06 SATL 025
T000 137S 1655E 045 R034 125 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 140S 1659E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 143S 1663E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 147S 1667E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 154S 1672E 050 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 173S 1671E 040 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 192S 1651E 040 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 204S 1636E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-12 14:42

WTPS31 PGTW 121500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.0S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.3S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-12 14:30

WTPS51 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190212134450
2019021212 15P OMA 003 01 090 06 SATL 025
T000 137S 1655E 045 R034 125 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 140S 1659E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 143S 1663E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 147S 1667E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 154S 1672E 050 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 173S 1671E 040 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 192S 1651E 040 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 204S 1636E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.0S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.3S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.4S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.3S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.2S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.4S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 165.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35
1519021212 137S1655E 45
NNNN

>

2019-02-12 14:30

WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.0S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.3S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.4S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.3S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.2S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.4S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 165.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LINING UP WITH
A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 121038Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW,
NFFN, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET
BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION
TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE
AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. AFTER TAU 12, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL
ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTHWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 48,
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS
AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35
BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MEMBERS: ECMF AND GALWEM OFFER A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE NEAR
TERM BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AND HWRF OFFERS THE WIDEST
EASTWARD TURN, A POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE (92P) APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. IN VIEW OF THESE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST
WEST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET HWRF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND
131500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-12 09:00

WTPS51 PGTW 120900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190212071210
2019021206 15P FIFTEEN 002 01 050 05 SATL 035
T000 137S 1649E 035 R034 220 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 137S 1654E 040 R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 139S 1658E 045 R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 143S 1661E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 148S 1664E 045 R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 165S 1670E 035 R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 187S 1655E 035 R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 201S 1639E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 164.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 164.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.7S 165.4E

>

2019-02-12 09:00

WTPS31 PGTW 120900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 164.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 164.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.7S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.9S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-12 08:56

WTPS51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190212071210
2019021206 15P FIFTEEN 002 01 050 05 SATL 035
T000 137S 1649E 035 R034 220 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 137S 1654E 040 R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 139S 1658E 045 R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 143S 1661E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T048 148S 1664E 045 R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 165S 1670E 035 R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 187S 1655E 035 R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 201S 1639E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 164.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 164.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.7S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.9S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.3S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.8S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.7S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.1S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 165.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35
1519021206 137S1649E 35

>

2019-02-12 08:54

WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 164.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 164.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.7S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.9S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.3S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.8S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.7S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.1S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 165.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, DISORGANIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH THE BULK OF ITS
CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY TRACING
THE EXPOSED FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LINING UP WITH A RAGGED
LLC FEATURE IN THE 120533Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG
(25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA
ARE CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU
24, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND
DRIVE TC 15P SOUTHWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 72, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTERWARD,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS,
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEMBERS IN THE
NEAR-TERM: GFS AND HWRF OFFER A SHARP REVERSAL BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND GALWEM OFFERS THE WIDEST EASTWARD TURN. IN VIEW OF
THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-12 03:38

WTPS31 PGTW 120300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112051FEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 164.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 164.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.0S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.1S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-12 03:03

WTPS51 PGTW 120300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190212021101
2019021200 15P FIFTEEN 001 01 065 10 SATL 060
T000 140S 1645E 035 R034 055 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 140S 1653E 040 R034 070 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 141S 1657E 045 R034 070 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 143S 1659E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 090 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 147S 1661E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 163S 1664E 045 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 183S 1660E 040 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 198S 1642E 035 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 164.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 164.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.0S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

>

2019-02-12 02:51

WTPS51 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190212021101
2019021200 15P FIFTEEN 001 01 065 10 SATL 060
T000 140S 1645E 035 R034 055 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 140S 1653E 040 R034 070 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 141S 1657E 045 R034 070 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 143S 1659E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T048 147S 1661E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T072 163S 1664E 045 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 183S 1660E 040 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 198S 1642E 035 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 164.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 164.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.0S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.1S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.3S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.3S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.3S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 164.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION, SURROUNDED BY FLARING CONVECTION AND DEVLEOPING
BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF 112239Z ASCAT AMBIQUITIES AND
THE ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY, WHICH SHOW THE LLCC IN AN AREA
BETWEEN FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T2.0 (30 TO 40 KNOTS), SUPPORTED
BY ANALYSIS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS,
WHICH INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED 40
KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS,
STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SSTS.
THE AUTOMATED VWS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES ARE DEPICTING UP TO 50 KNOTS
OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE
OVERALL SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM, SO AN ALTERNATIVE
HAND ANALYSIS IS BEING USED TO ESTIMATE THE VWS VALUES AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING RELATIVELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE EAST BUT
HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING
EAST AT 10 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 15P WILL MOVE
INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, A STR BUILDS
IN SLOWLY FROM THE EAST, ULTIMATELY DRIVING THE SYSTEM ONTO A SOUTHWARD
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. TC 15P WILL SLOWLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS, AS
MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY INCREASING OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, DECREASED
OUTFLOW AND SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF TC 15P, AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
INTERACTION WITH INVEST AREA 93P, CURRENTLY NORTH OF FIJI. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, BUT
SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO
THE SOUTH, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SLOWEST AND WESTERNMOST, WHILE GALWEM
IS THE FASTEST AND EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. THE GFS REPRESENTS THE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO, AND TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN RAPIDLY MAKES A
NORTH LOOP AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL VANUATU BEFORE A SHARP
TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM FUJIWARAS WITH INVEST 93P BY TAU
96. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93P, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
1519021006 174S1564E 20
1519021012 174S1577E 20
1519021018 174S1590E 25
1519021100 164S1603E 25
1519021106 155S1612E 25
1519021112 151S1625E 25
1519021118 144S1636E 30
1519021200 140S1645E 35

>

2019-02-12 02:51

WTPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112051FEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 164.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 164.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.0S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.1S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.3S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.3S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.3S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 164.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION, SURROUNDED BY FLARING CONVECTION AND DEVLEOPING
BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF 112239Z ASCAT AMBIQUITIES AND
THE ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY, WHICH SHOW THE LLCC IN AN AREA
BETWEEN FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T2.0 (30 TO 40 KNOTS), SUPPORTED
BY ANALYSIS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS,
WHICH INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED 40
KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS,
STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SSTS.
THE AUTOMATED VWS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES ARE DEPICTING UP TO 50 KNOTS
OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE
OVERALL SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM, SO AN ALTERNATIVE
HAND ANALYSIS IS BEING USED TO ESTIMATE THE VWS VALUES AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING RELATIVELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE EAST BUT
HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING
EAST AT 10 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 15P WILL MOVE
INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, A STR BUILDS
IN SLOWLY FROM THE EAST, ULTIMATELY DRIVING THE SYSTEM ONTO A
SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. TC 15P WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS, AS MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY INCREASING OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48,
DECREASED OUTFLOW AND SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF TC 15P, AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH INVEST AREA 93P, CURRENTLY NORTH OF
FIJI. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK
SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE
SLOWEST AND WESTERNMOST, WHILE GALWEM IS THE FASTEST AND EASTERNMOST
OUTLIER. THE GFS REPRESENTS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO, AND TAKES THE
SYSTEM WEST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN RAPIDLY MAKES A NORTH LOOP AND DIVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL VANUATU BEFORE A SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM FUJIWARAS WITH INVEST 93P BY TAU 96. DUE TO
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX
INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93P, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEEDS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 112100).//
NNNN

>