Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GELENA-19
in Mauritius

Global Telecommunication Service

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2019-02-15 06:13

WTIO20 FMEE 150609
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 15/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GELENA) 1006 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8 S / 89.8 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
32.2 S / 91.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
33.9 S / 93.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION FOR THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-02-15 02:52

WTXS32 PGTW 150300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 29.3S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.0S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1426 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY.

>

2019-02-15 02:10

WTXS32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 29.3S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.0S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1426 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY.
ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT AMSU CROSS SECTION DEPICTS A COLD TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
WEAK FRONTAL STRUCTURE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE (USING
HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD) OF ST2.5 (35 TO 40 KTS). ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 12. THE SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 1
TO 2 DAYS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14
FEET.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-15 00:15

WTIO20 FMEE 150017
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 15/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GELENA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3 S / 88.9 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/15 AT 12 UTC:
31.2 S / 90.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/02/16 AT 00 UTC:
33.7 S / 91.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-14 20:40

WTXS32 PGTW 142100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 28.9S 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.7S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.5S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1479 NM

>

2019-02-14 20:37

WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 28.9S 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.7S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.5S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1479 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING SYSTEM. A 141528Z AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED OFF OF A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KTS). ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 24. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12, THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD,
THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO
WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-14 18:08

WTIO20 FMEE 141809
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GELENA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1 S / 87.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 90 MN FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/15 AT 06 UTC:
30.4 S / 89.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
32.3 S / 91.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-14 15:07

WTXS32 PGTW 141500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 28.2S 85.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 85.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 32.0S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:

>

2019-02-14 14:42

WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 28.2S 85.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 85.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 32.0S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1474 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO WARM AND
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL. A 141218Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS REMNANT CONVECTIVE BANDS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC CENTER IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS PLACED BELOW MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) DUE TO THE DIMINISHED CONVECTION. TC 13S
IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, HIGH (25-40 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND TROUGHING
ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
WHILE CONTINUALLY WEAKENING. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD, VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
DUE TO RECENT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED ALONG-TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-14 12:54

WTIO31 FMEE 141221 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.3 S / 85.8 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 19 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 260 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 91.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 94.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 17/02/2019 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 96.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-02-14 12:54

WTIO30 FMEE 141221 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.3 S / 85.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 91.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 94.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/17 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 96.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-02-14 12:51

WTIO31 FMEE 141221
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.3 S / 85.8 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 19 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 260 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 91.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 94.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 17/02/2019 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 96.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS SE SONT
LEGEREMENTS RECHAUFFES TOUT EN RESTANT PRESENTS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD DU SYSTEME A CAUSE DE L'EFFET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE
ET DE L'ACCELERATION DE SON DEPLACEMENT. L'ANALYSE EN BANDE INCURVEE
PLAIDE POUR UNE ANALYSE DVORAK A 3.0, CE QUI CORRESPOND A
L'ESTIMATION ACTUELLE DE L'INTENSITE A 40KT. L'IMAGE SSMIS DE 1019UTC
A PERMIS DE LOCALISER AVEC CONFIANCE LA POSITION DE GELENA.

TOUJOURS GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, GELENA CONSERVE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EST-SUD-EST ASSEZ
RAPIDE, QUE LES MODELES SOUS-ESTIMENT SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE RALENTIR ET S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12HEURES. DANS LE SILLAGE DU TALWEG QUI A
TRANSITE AU SUD DU SYSTEME, GELENA VA S'EVACUER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS
LE SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST CONTINUE DE SE
RENFORCER LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA. CELA CONTRIBUE A
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME MALGRE SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT IMPORTANTE.
CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT
CISAILLE, GELENA DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET
SUBTROPICAL ET LA ZONE BAROCLINE ASSOCIEE. PASSANT LE 35AOSUD, GELENA
ENTAMERA UNE TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
SAMEDI.=

>

2019-02-14 12:51

WTIO30 FMEE 141221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.3 S / 85.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 91.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 94.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/17 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 96.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY
WHILE REMAINING PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM DUE
TO THE EFFECT OF A GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE AND THE ACCELERATION OF ITS
DISPLACEMENT. THE CURVED BAND PATTERN ARGUES FOR A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT
3.0, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE CURRENT ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AT
40KT. THE SSMIS IMAGE OF 1019UTC MADE IT POSSIBLE TO LOCATE WITH
CONFIDENCE THE POSITION OF GELENA.

ALWAYS GUIDED BY NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE, GELENA MAINTAINS AN
EAST-SOUTH-EAST TRACK WHICH IS QUITE FAST, AND THAT THE MODELS
UNDERESTIMATE OVER SHORT PERIODS. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
AND TURN SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WHICH PASSED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, GELENA WILL EVACUATE MORE CLEARLY
TO THE SOUTH-EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OF THE WESTERN SECTOR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE GELENA TRACK. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
DESPITE ITS HIGH SPEED. MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN THIS
WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO START TO LOOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FROM TOMORROW INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAM AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC AREA. PASSING 35AO SOUTH, GELENA
WILL START AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION DURING SATURDAY'S DAY.=

>

2019-02-14 12:10

WTIO20 FMEE 141210
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.3 S / 85.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 90 MN FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/15 AT 00 UTC:
29.8 S / 88.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/15 AT 12 UTC:
31.6 S / 90.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-14 09:05

WTXS32 PGTW 140900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 83.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 83.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 29.1S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.0S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-14 08:49

WTXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 83.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 83.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 29.1S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.0S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.7S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1383 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A
140304Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC CENTER IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-3.5 (45-
55KTS). A 140305Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS SEVERAL RAIN-FLAGGED 50 KT WIND
BARBS, BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE.
TC 13S IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, HIGH (25-40 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND TROUGHING
ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 24, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES POLEWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE,
LEADING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED AHEAD
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO RECENT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED
ALONG-TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-14 06:56

WTIO31 FMEE 140628 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.4 S / 83.4 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE
EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/02/2019 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 16/02/2019 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 92.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 94.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 17/02/2019 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 96.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-02-14 06:56

WTIO30 FMEE 140628 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 83.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/15 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/16 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 92.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/16 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 94.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/17 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 96.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-02-14 06:54

WTIO31 FMEE 140628
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.4 S / 83.4 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE
EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/02/2019 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 16/02/2019 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 92.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 94.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 17/02/2019 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 96.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A PU SE
MAINTENIR ESSENTIELLEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST, SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE. LE CISAILLEMENT EST MAINTENANT
BIEN MARQUE ET LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A DU MAL A RESISTER. LA
CONFIGURATION CISAILLE PERMET UNE ESTIMATION DVORAK DE VENT DE
L'ORDRE DE 40KT CE QUE CONFIRME LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0413UTC. L'IMAGE
AMSU-B DE 0304UTC VALIDE LA LOCALISATION EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE.

LE SYSTEME, QUI A ACCELERE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SUR LE FACADE SUD-OUEST
D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, VA MAINTENIR
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE EN RALENTISSANT ET S'ORIENTANT VERS LE SUD-EST AU
COURS DE PROCHAINE 24HEURES. DANS LE SILLAGE DU TALWEG QUI A TRANSITE
AU SUD DU SYSTEME, GELENA VA S'EVACUER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE
SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END. LES MODELES RESTENT GLOBALEMENT EN BON
ACCORD QUANT AU TIMING ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST CONTINUE DE SE
RENFORCER LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA. A LA FAVEUR D'UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE, LA CONVECTION DANS LE SUD DE LA
CIRCULATION POURRAIT SE MAINTENIR ENCORE 6 A 12 HEURES. PAR LA SUITE,
LE LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME VA SE POURSUIVRE ET GELENA DEVRAIT
ENSUITE COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN
INTERRAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL ET LA ZONE BAROCLINE ASSOCIEE.
PASSANT LE 35AOSUD, GELENA ENTAMERA UNE TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE EN
COURS DE JOURNEE DE SAMEDI.=

>

2019-02-14 06:54

WTIO30 FMEE 140628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 83.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/15 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/16 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 92.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/16 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 94.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/17 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 96.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF ESSENTIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO A GOOD POLAR
DIVERGENCE. THE WINDSHEAR IS NOW WELL MARKED AND THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DIFFICULTY RESISTING. THE SHEAR PATTERN ALLOWS A WIND ESTIMATE OF
ABOUT 40KT, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE 0413UTC PASS SWATH. THE 0304UTC
AMSU-B IMAGE VALIDATES THE LOCATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS ACCELERATED EAST-SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN
SIDE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH PASSING
BY IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WILL MAINTAIN THIS TRACK BY SLOWING
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH PASSED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, GELENA WILL EVACUATE MORE
CLEARLY TO THE SOUTH-EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND
SPEED OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GELENA
TRACK. THANKS TO A GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE, CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION COULD BE MAINTAINED FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
THE SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AND IS THEN EXPECTED
TO START TO LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TODAY INTERACTING WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC AREA.
PASSING 35AO SOUTH, GELENA WILL START AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
DURING SATURDAY'S DAY.=

>

2019-02-14 06:18

WTIO20 FMEE 140617
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 83.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 130 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO LOCALLY 320 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/14 AT 18 UTC:
28.7 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/15 AT 06 UTC:
30.4 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-14 02:48

WTXS32 PGTW 140300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.9S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.2S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-14 02:04

WTXS32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.9S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.2S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.2S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1822 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY DECAYING CONVECTION. A
132316Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED OFF
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-3.5 (45-
55KTS). ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE DROPPED
BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO 22 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY TAU 36. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-14 00:46

WTIO31 FMEE 140020 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.9 S / 81.2 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 93.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 17/02/2019 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0+.

>

2019-02-14 00:46

WTIO30 FMEE 140020 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 81.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 93.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/17 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0+.

>

2019-02-14 00:24

WTIO31 FMEE 140020
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.9 S / 81.2 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 93.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 17/02/2019 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0+.

SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
RESTE LOCALISEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE DE
2150Z ET LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELITE PERMETTENT DE SITUER LE CENTRE
SOUS LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI S'EST
AMELIOREE DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE D'ACCELERER VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SUR LE FACADE
SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ET
DANS LE SILLAGE DU THALWEG QUI A TRANSITE AU SUD DU SYSTEME ET QUI
S'EVACUE VERS LE SUD-EST DEMAIN.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, GELENA SE RETROUVE DE NOUVEAU A L'AVANT D'UN
TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ARRIVANT DEPUIS L'OUEST ET SUR LA FACE
SUD-OUEST, VOIRE LA FACE OUEST A PLUS BAS NIVEAU D'UNE NOUVELLE
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, CE QUI DEVRAIT LE FAIRE TOURNER VERS LE
SUD-EST. LES MODELES RESTENT GLOBALEMENT EN BON ACCORD QUANT AU
TIMING ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST EST PREVU SE
RENFORCER AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET DANS LE SUD DU
SYSTEME, MAIS FOURNIR EGALEMENT UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE,
ENTRETENANT LA CONVECTION DANS LE SUD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. EN
CONSEQUENCE, LE LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EST PREVU SE
POURSUIVRE. GELENA DEVRAIT ENSUITE COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AUJOURD'HUI EN INTERRAGISSANT AVEC LE
JET SUBTROPICAL ET LA ZONE BAROCLINE ASSOCIA E.=

>

2019-02-14 00:24

WTIO30 FMEE 140020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 81.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 93.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/17 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0+.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO
WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. 2150ZSSMIS MICRO-WAVE DATA AND THE LAST
SATELITE IMAGERY SHOW HELP TO LOCATE THE CENTER UNDER THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS IMPROVED DURING
THE LAST HOURS.

GELENA IS NOW ACCELERATING EASTWARD TRACK ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH PASSING BY IN
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WHICH AVACUATE TOMORRW SOUTHEASTWARDS.
FRIDAY, GELENA WILL BE LOCATED AGAIN AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST AND ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE, EVEN THE WESTERN SIDE AT
LOWER LEVEL OF A NEW NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE JETSTREAM IN THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT SHOULD IN THE SAME TINE GIVE A GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE,
KEEPING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY. GELENA IS
THEN EXPECTED TO START TO LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TODAY
INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE ASSOCIATED
BAROCLINIC AREA.=

>

2019-02-14 00:14

WTIO20 FMEE 140016
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 81.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 100 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO LOCALLY 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
28.3 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/15 AT 00 UTC:
29.7 S / 87.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-13 21:05

WTXS32 PGTW 132100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 26.4S 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.5S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.6S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-13 20:36

WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 26.4S 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.5S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.6S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.1S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1907 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY DECAYING CONVECTION. A
131659Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, A 131700Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH 40-45 KNOTS WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 2.5-3.5 (35-55KTS).
ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
AT 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, THE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP
OFF TO 21 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 48. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-13 18:14

WTIO31 FMEE 131809 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.5 S / 78.9 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 15/02/2019 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 16/02/2019 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 94.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.5+. CI=3.0+.

>

2019-02-13 18:14

WTIO30 FMEE 131809 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 78.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/15 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/16 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/16 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 94.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.5+. CI=3.0+.

>

2019-02-13 18:14

WTIO22 FMEE 131808
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 78.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 160 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO LOCALLY 600 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
27.5 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/14 AT 18 UTC:
28.6 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-13 18:12

WTIO31 FMEE 131809
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.5 S / 78.9 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 15/02/2019 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 16/02/2019 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 94.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.5+; CI=3.0+.

SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
RESTE LOCALISEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 37
GHZ DE 1232Z ET LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELITE PERMETTENT DE SITUER LE
CENTRE EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESIDUELLE.
LES DONNEES METOPA ET B DE 1550Z ET 1659Z CONFIRMENT L'INETNSITE DU
SYSTEME.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE D'ACCELERER VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SUR LE FACADE
SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ET
DANS LE SILLAGE DU THALWEG QUI A TRANSITE AU SUD DU SYSTEME ET QUI
S'EVACUE VERS LE SUD-EST DEMAIN.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, GELENA SE RETROUVE DE NOUVEAU A L'AVANT D'UN
TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ARRIVANT DEPUIS L'OUEST ET SUR LA FACE
SUD-OUEST, VOIRE LA FACE OUEST A PLUS BAS NIVEAU D'UNE NOUVELLE
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, CE QUI DEVRAIT LE FAIRE TOURNER VERS LE
SUD-EST. LES MODELES RESTENT GLOBALEMENT EN BON ACCORD QUANT AU
TIMING ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST EST PREVU SE
RENFORCER AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET DANS LE SUD DU
SYSTEME, MAIS FOURNIR EGALEMENT UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE,
ENTRETENANT LA CONVECTION DANS LE SUD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. EN
CONSEQUENCE, LE LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EST PREVU SE
POURSUIVRE. GELENA DEVRAIT ENSUITE COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES JEUDI EN INTERRAGISSANT AVEC LE JET
SUBTROPICAL ET LA ZONE BAROCLINE ASSOCIA E.=

>

2019-02-13 18:12

WTIO30 FMEE 131809
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 78.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/15 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/16 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/16 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 94.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.5+; CI=3.0+.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO
WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. 1232Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICRO-WAVE DATA AND
THE LAST SATELITE IMAGERY SHOW HELP TO LOCATE THE CENTER AT THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION.
METOP A AND B DATA OF 1550Z AND 1659Z COMFIRM THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM.

GELENA IS NOW ACCELERATING EASTWARD TRACK ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH PASSING BY IN
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WHICH AVACUATE TOMORRW SOUTHEASTWARDS.
FRIDAY, GELENA WILL BE LOCATED AGAIN AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST AND ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE, EVEN THE WESTERN SIDE AT
LOWER LEVEL OF A NEW NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE JETSTREAM IN THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT SHOULD IN THE SAME TINE GIVE A GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE,
KEEPING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY. GELENA IS
THEN EXPECTED TO START TO LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THURSDAY
INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE ASSOCIATED
BAROCLINIC AREA.=

>

2019-02-13 14:18

WTXS32 PGTW 131500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 25.8S 78.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 78.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.5S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-13 14:12

WTXS32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 25.8S 78.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 78.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.5S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.5S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.0S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.8S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 79.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A
RUGGED, CLOUD-FILLED, BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
THE BULK OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED EASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE MSI
LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 131033Z 37GHZ
SSMIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS
OFFSET BY A STORM MOTION IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 24, SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS
TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z,
140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-13 12:46

WTIO31 FMEE 131217 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.8 S / 77.5 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0- .CI=3.5-

>

2019-02-13 12:46

WTIO30 FMEE 131217 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 77.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0- .CI=3.5-

>

2019-02-13 12:33

WTIO31 FMEE 131217
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.8 S / 77.5 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0- ;CI=3.5-

SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
RESTE LOCALISEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 37
GHZ DE 1032Z MONTRE UNE LEGERE DEGRADATION DE LA CIRCULATION DE
BASSES COUCHES. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A A TA DA GRADEE AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

LE SYSTEME COMMENCE A ACCELERER VERS L'EST AU SEIN D'UN FLUX D'OUEST
PRESENT A TOUS NIVEAUX. CETTE TENDANCE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24/36H. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, GELENA SE RETROUVE DE
NOUVEAU A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ARRIVANT DEPUIS
L'OUEST ET SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, CE QUI DEVRAIT LE FAIRE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST.
LES MODELES RESTENT GLOBALEMENT EN BON ACCORD QUANT AU TIMING ET LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST EST PREVU SE
RENFORCER AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET DANS LE SUD DU
SYSTEME. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EST PREVU
SE POURSUIVRE. GELENA DEVRAIT ENSUITE COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES JEUDI EN INTERRAGISSANT AVEC LE JET
SUBTROPICAL ET LA ZONE BAROCLINE ASSOCIA E.

CE BULLETIN A ETE REALISE EN COLLABORATION AVEC RIVO RANRIANARISON DU
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR ET ALLY MUSSA DU TANZANIA
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

2019-02-13 12:33

WTIO30 FMEE 131217
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 77.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0- ;CI=3.5-

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO
WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. 1032Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SO, THE
SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED INTO MODERATE TROPICAL STAGE.

GELENA IS NOW ACCELERATING EASTWARD TRACK EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP
WESTERLIES. THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. FRIDAY, GELENA WILL BE LOCATED AGAIN AHEAD OF A
TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A NEW
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING AND SPEED OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE JETSTREAM IN THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY.
GELENA IS THEN EXPECTED TO START TO LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON
THURSDAY INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC AREA.

THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN PRODUCED IN COLLABORATION WITH RIVO
RANRIANARISON FROM MADAGASCAR MET SERVICE AND ALLY MUSSA FROM
TANZANIA METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

2019-02-13 12:10

WTIO22 FMEE 131211
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 77.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 50 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO LOCALLY 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
26.9 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
28.0 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-13 08:46

WTXS32 PGTW 130900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.9S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-13 08:40

WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.9S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.7S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 27.8S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 29.6S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 33.9S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 77.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1114 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A CLOUD-FILLED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED EASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A STORM MOTION IN-PHASE WITH
WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE FLARING CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27 CELSIUS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN, AFTER TAU
24, SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BECOMES THE
PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD THE
VWS IS EXPECTED INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-13 07:00

WTIO31 FMEE 130618 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 76.5 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2019 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 16/02/2019 06 UTC: 35.5 S / 90.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2019 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 98.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0 .CI=3.5

>

2019-02-13 07:00

WTIO30 FMEE 130618 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 76.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/15 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/16 06 UTC: 35.5 S / 90.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/17 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 98.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0 .CI=3.5

>

2019-02-13 06:57

WTIO31 FMEE 130618
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 76.5 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2019 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 16/02/2019 06 UTC: 35.5 S / 90.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2019 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 98.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0 ;CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST DECALEE
PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT EST SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE SECTEUR OUEST AVEC UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES QUI
DEVIENT DE PLUS EXPOSEE DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST. L'INTENSITE INITIALE
EST BASEE SUR LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT DE 0324Z.

LE SYSTEME COMMENCE A ACCELERER VERS L'EST AU SEIN D'UN FLUX D'OUEST
PRESENT A TOUS NIVEAUX. CETTE TENDANCE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24/36H. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, GELENA SE RETROUVE DE
NOUVEAU A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ARRIVANT DEPUIS
L'OUEST ET SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, CE QUI DEVRAIT LE FAIRE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST.
LES MODELES RESTENT GLOBALEMENT EN BON ACCORD QUANT AU TIMING ET LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST EST PREVU SE
RENFORCER AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET DANS LE SUD DU
SYSTEME. EN CONSEQUENCE, UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ MARQUE EST ENVISAGE
POUR AUJOURD'HUI COMME SUGGERE PAR LA PLUPART DES MODELES. GELENA
DEVRAIT ENSUITE COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES
JEUDI EN INTERRAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL ET LA ZONE BAROCLINE
ASSOCIA E.=

>

2019-02-13 06:57

WTIO30 FMEE 130618
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 76.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/15 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/16 06 UTC: 35.5 S / 90.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/17 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 98.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0 ;CI=3.5

DURING THE 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED
EASTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WITH A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT BECOMES MORE AND MORE EXPOSED WITHIN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LAST 0324Z
ASCAT SWATH.

GELENA IS NOW ACCELERATING EASTWARD TRACK EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP
WESTERLIES. THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. FRIDAY, GELENA WILL BE LOCATED AGAIN AHEAD OF A
TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A NEW
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING AND SPEED OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORESCASTED TO INCREASE WITH THE
ARRIVAL AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE JETSTREAM IN THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, SOME FAIRLY AGRESSIVE WEAKENING IS FORECAST
TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. GELENA IS THEN EXPECTED
TO START TO LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THURSDAY INTERACTING
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
AREA.=

>

2019-02-13 06:16

WTIO22 FMEE 130613 RRA
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 76.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 50 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO LOCALLY 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
25.9 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
26.5 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

>

2019-02-13 06:13

WTIO22 FMEE 130613
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 76.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 50 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO LOCALLY 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
25.9 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
26.5 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-13 02:53

WTXS32 PGTW 130300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-13 02:45

WTXS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.1S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.0S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 28.4S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 32.9S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 76.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 2093 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A
122216Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE MSI. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM THE WEST CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET BY STORM MOTION
THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE FLARING
CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, CURRENT TRACK
TAKES 13S OVER COOLER WATERS BEYOND TAU 24. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AT
TAU 24, AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AT TAU 48 AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DROP OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z,
132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-13 01:07

WTIO31 FMEE 130040 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.4 S / 75.5 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 160 SO: 140 NO: 210
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 0 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5-.CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-13 01:07

WTIO30 FMEE 130040 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4 S / 75.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 210
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 0 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5-.CI=4.0-.

>

2019-02-13 01:04

WTIO31 FMEE 130040
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.4 S / 75.5 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 160 SO: 140 NO: 210
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 0 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5-;CI=4.0-

DES SIGNES DE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST SE SONT MAINTENU TOUT AU LONG DE
LA NUIT SUR LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GELENA SUR L'IMAGERIE
SATELLITE CLASSIQUE. L'AMSR2 DE 2033Z CONFIRME L'IMPACT DU
CISAILLEMENT AVEC UN TILT VERS L'EST DE LA CIRCULATION ENTRE LES
BASSES COUCHES ET LES COUCHES MOYENNES. LE CENTRE EST MAINTENANT
ESTIME EN BORDURE OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. TOUTES LES GUIDANCES
D'ANALYSES D'INTENSITE ONT BAISSE AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. EN
CONSEQUENCE L'INTENSITE INITIALE EST ABAISSEE A 55 KT.

LE FIX DE LA PASS AMSR2 MONTRE QUE GELENA SEMBLE AVOIR REPRIS UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST AU SEIN D'UN FLUX D'OUEST
PRESENT A TOUS NIVEAUX. CETTE TENDANCE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24/36H. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, GELENA SE RETROUVE DE
NOUVEAU A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ARRIVANT DEPUIS
L'OUEST ET SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, CE QUI DEVRAIT LE FAIRE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST.
LES MODELES RESTENT GLOBALEMENT EN BON ACCORD QUANT AU TIMING ET LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LES DONNEES DU CIMSS MONTRENT UNE LEGERE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES ET CETTE TENDANCE DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER AUJOURD'HUI A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND TALWEG. EN CONSEQUENCE,
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ MARQUE EST ENVISAGE POUR AUJOURD'HUI COMME
SUGGERE PAR LA PLUPART DES MODELES. GELENA DEVRAIT ENSUITE COMMENCER
A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES JEUDI EN JOURNEE AVEC UNE
CONTRIBUTION A LA HAUSSE DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EN INTERACTION AVEC
LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, AVANT DE DEGENERER EN MINIMUM RESIDUEL
VENDREDI.=

>

2019-02-13 01:04

WTIO30 FMEE 130040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4 S / 75.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 210
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 0 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5-;CI=4.0-.

INCREASING SIGNS OF WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT ON
CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WAS CONFIRMED BY THE 2033Z GCOM-W1
OVERPASS THAT SHOW THE EASTWARD TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. ALL THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE 18Z SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED AT
55 KT.

ACCORDING TO THE GCOM-W1 FIX, GELENA SEEMS TO HAVE RESUME AN EASTERLY
TRACK EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WESTERLIES. THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FRIDAY, GELENA WILL BE
LOCATED AGAIN AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE
SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A NEW NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE
A SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

CIMSS DATA SHOW SOME SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP LAYERS TROUGH. THEREFORE, SOME FAIRLY AGRESSIVE
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
GELENA IS THEN EXPECTED TO START TO LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEFORE DEGENERATING IN A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.=

>

2019-02-13 00:27

WTIO22 FMEE 130029
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4 S / 75.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 90 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO LOCALLY 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS AND UP TO 45
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
25.6 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
26.2 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-12 21:11

WTXS32 PGTW 122100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 25.5S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 75.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.9S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-12 20:34

WTXS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 25.5S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 75.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.9S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.6S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 27.4S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.5S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 75.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1114 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
A SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED EASTWARD BECOMING SLIGHTLY
LESS ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A 1721Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF 50 KNOT WIND BARBS THROUGHOUT THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT IS OFFSET BY A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE FLARING CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FOR NOW, ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27
CELSIUS, HOWEVER, CURRENT TRACK TAKES 13S OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINE TO TRACK
EAST UNTIL CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AT 48 HOURS AS VWS
INCREASES AND SSTS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-02-12 19:21

WTIO31 FMEE 121837 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.2 S / 74.8 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 210
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 15/02/2019 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.0-.CI=4.0+

>

2019-02-12 19:21

WTIO30 FMEE 121837 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 74.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 210
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/15 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.0-.CI=4.0+.

>

2019-02-12 19:19

WTIO31 FMEE 121837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.2 S / 74.8 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 210
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 15/02/2019 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.0-;CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME S'EST AMELIOREE EN FIN
D'APRES-MIDI ET DEBUT DE SOIREE A LA FOIS SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES
CLASSIQUES ET MICRO-ONDES. UN OEIL DECHIQUETE A MEME ETE
TEMPORAIREMENT PRESENT ENTRE 13Z ET 15Z. DEPUIS CA, LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE MONTRE DES SIGNES DE FAIBLESSE AVEC UN RECHAUFFEMENT DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX SUR LA PARTIE OUEST ET DES SIGNES DE CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST. L'INTENSITE INITIALE EST REHAUSSEE A 60 KT, EN LIMITE HAUTE
DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (SATCON) ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

LES DONNEES DE LA FAUCHEE ASCAT-A DE 1611Z ONT ETE UTILES POUR
POSITIONNER LE CENTRE ET CONSTATER QUE GELENA FAIT MAINTENANT DE
L'EST-NORD-EST DEPUIS 9/12 H SUR LA FACADE SUD-EST D'UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPO. ALORS QUE CETTE DORSALE D'AFFAIBLIT, GELENA DEVRAIT
BIENTOT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST AU SEIN D'UN FLUX D'OUEST
PRESENT A TOUS NIVEAUX. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, GELENA SE RETROUVE DE
NOUVEAU A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ARRIVANT DEPUIS
L'OUEST ET SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, CE QUI DEVRAIT LE FAIRE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST.
LES MODELES SONT MAINTENANT EN BON ACCORD QUANT AU TIMING ET LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LE CHAMP DE VENT EN ALTITUDE PREVU PAR LES MODELES NUMERIQUES MONTRE
QUE GELENA ETAIT SITUE AUJOURD'HUI DANS UNE ETROITE FENETRE DE FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT ENTRE DEUX ZONES DE FORTS CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST SITUEES
AU NORD ET AU SUD. SI CE N'EST PAS DEJA LE CAS, LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT RECOMMENCER A MONTER BIENTOT A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND TALWEG.
EN CONSEQUENCE, UNE TENDANCE PLUS FRANCHE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEFINITIF DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE DES DEMAIN. GELENA DEVRAIT
ENSUITE COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES JEUDI EN
JOURNEE OU SOIREE AVANT DE DEGENERER EN MINIMUM RESIDUEL VENDREDI.=

>

2019-02-12 19:19

WTIO30 FMEE 121837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 74.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 210
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/15 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.0-;CI=4.0+.

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS MOSTLY IMPROVED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BASED ON PRESENTATION ON BOTH CLASSICAL IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. A RAGGED EYE WAS EVEN APPARENT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. HOWEVER
SINCE THAT TIME, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS STARTED TO DETERIORATE WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INCREASING SIGNS
OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT AT THE
UPPER END OF ALL OBJECTIVE (SATCON) AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

ASCAT-A DATA FROM 1611Z WAS USEFUL TO LOCATE THE CENTER AND REVEAL
THAT GELENA HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTH-EASTWARDS DURING THE PAST 9/12
HOURS OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS RIDGE
WEAKENS, GELENA SHOULD START SOON TO RESUME AN EASTERLY TRACK
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WESTERLIES. FRIDAY, GELENA WILL BE LOCATED AGAIN
AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN
SIDE OF A NEW NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE NOW IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND SPEED.

UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD FROM NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW THAT GELENA WAS
LOCATED TODAY WITHIN AN AREA OF LOWER WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IN-BETWEEN
TWO AREAS OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. IF
NOT ALREADY, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOON ACCORDING THE
GUIDANCE, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYERS TROUGH. THEREFORE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST FROM TOMORROW. GELENA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO START TO LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THURSDAY NIGHT OR
SOONER BEFORE DEGENERATING IN A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.=

>

2019-02-12 18:19

WTIO22 FMEE 121815
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 74.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 90 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO LOCALLY 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/13 AT 06 UTC:
25.4 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-12 14:42

WTXS32 PGTW 121500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-12 14:17

WTXS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.5S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.1S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 73.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 961 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED
EASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A 120455Z 25-KM RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING
MULTIPLE 50-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN RIMS OF
THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (GREATER THAN 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FOR NOW, ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT
27 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER, AS STRONG VWS
PERSISTS AND SSTS DECREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-12 13:09

WTIO31 FMEE 121247 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 73.9 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 190 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5.CI=3.5+

>

2019-02-12 13:09

WTIO30 FMEE 121247 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 73.9 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 190 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5.CI=3.5+.

>

2019-02-12 13:06

WTIO31 FMEE 121247
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 73.9 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 190 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5;CI=3.5+

LES ANIMATIONS SATELITE MONTRE QU'AU FIL DES HEURES DE LA MATINEE,LA
CONVECTION PROFFONDE, BIEN QUE MONTRANT UNE TEMPERATURE DE SOMMET
RELATIVEMENT CHAUDE, S'EST ORGANISER EN BANDE INCURVEE AUTOUR DU
CENTRE, LAISSANT APPARAITRE SUR LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES UN
ANNEAU COMPLETEMENT FERME EN 85GHZ (SSIMIS DE 1046Z).
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A ETE MAINTENU STATIONNAIRE, ET LE T-DVORAK
AUGMENTE.

LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST QUI PILOTAIT LA TRAJECTOIRE
DE GELENA JUQU'A CETTE NUIT S'AFFAIBLIT, ALORS D'UNE DORSALE SE
RECONSTITUE DANS L'OUEST DU SYSTEME, BLOQUANT LA DESCENTE VERS LE
SUD, VOIRE MEME INDUISANT UNE COMPOSANTE NORD-EST A LA TRAJECTOIRE
SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES (ACCORD ISF/GFS). POUR LES PROCHAINES
36HEURES,
LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER A L'ARRIERE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX
D'OUEST ZONAL EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, GELENA SE RETROUVE DE NOUVEAU A L'AVANT D'UN
THALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ARRIVANT DEPUIS L'OUEST ET SUR LA FACE
SUD-OUEST D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, CE QUI DEVRAIT
LE FAIRE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST. LES MODELES SONT REVENUS EN RELATIF
ACCORD QUANT AU TIMING ET VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LES IMAGES VAPEUR D'EAU SUGGERENT UNE INTERACTION ENTRE LE SYSTEME ET
LE TOURBILLON D'ALTITUDE ASSOCIE A UN TALWEG PRESENT A PROXIMITE AU
SUD-OUEST. LES DIAGRAMMES DE PHASES ET L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DES
CHAMPS MODELES MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR CHAUD DE GELENA DEVRAIT RESTER
ENCORE ASSEZ EPAIS ET RELATIVEMENT SYMA TRIQUE DURANT QUELQUES JOURS.
AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT DIMINUER LENTEMENT AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 36H AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST FLUCTUANT (AYANT MEME
TEMPORAIREMENT BAISSER AUJOURD'HUI), UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE
POLAIRE ALIMENTEE PAR LA PROXIMITE DU THALWEG ET DES EAUX A POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE FAIBLE MAIS ENCORE SUFFISANT. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT QUITTER LES EAUX CHAUDES, CE QUI RENDRA PLUS PROBABLE
L'EVOLUTION VERS DES CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICALES.=

>

2019-02-12 13:06

WTIO30 FMEE 121247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 73.9 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 190 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5;CI=3.5+.

THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT DURING THE HOURS OF THE MORNING,
HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION SHOW RELATIVE WARM SUMMITS, IT HAS ORGANIZED
INTO A CURVED BAND AROUND THE CENTER, AND EVER ON THE LAST MICROWAVES
DATA A RING QUITE COMPLETLY CLOSE IN 85GHZ (SSIMIS 1046Z).
SO THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, AND THE T-NUMBER
INCREASED.

THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST THAT WAS STEERING
GELENA'S TRACK SHOULD DISAPPEAR TODAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE SOUTH KEEPS ON WEAKENING WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARDS, THUS CLOSING
THE EXIT TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. IN THE NEXT HOURS, GELENA SHOULD
TRACK IN THE REAR OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITHIN MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS.

FROM FRIDAY, GELENA WILL BE LOCATED AGAIN AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST AND ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A NEW NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN. AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTICS GUIDANCES HAS RETOURNED IN QUITE GOOD AGGREEMENT IN
THE TIMING AND SPEED.

THE WV IMAGES SUGGEST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE UPPER
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TO A TROUGH LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. THE PHASES DIAGRAMS AND A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
OF THE MODELS FIELDS SHOW THAT GELENA'S WARM CORE SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY DEEP AND MORE OR LESS SYMMETRIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36H WITH A
FLUCTUATING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (HAVING TEMPORARY WEAKENED
TODAY), A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE STILL FUELED BY THE PROXIMITY OF
THE TROUGH AND OVERLYING WATERS WITH LOW BUT SUFFICIENT HEAT
POTENTIAL. FROM THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE WARM WATERS AND
IS THUS LIKELY TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION MORE EASILY.=

>

2019-02-12 12:39

WTIO22 FMEE 121237
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 73.9 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 130 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE AND UP TO
600 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
25.4 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
25.6 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-12 08:41

WTXS32 PGTW 120900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-12 08:34

WTXS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.5S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.1S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 73.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 961 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED
EASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A 120455Z 25-KM RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING
MULTIPLE 50-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN RIMS OF
THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (GREATER THAN 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FOR NOW, ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT
27 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER, AS STRONG VWS
PERSISTS AND SSTS DECREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-12 06:20

WTIO22 FMEE 120619
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.2 S / 73.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 140 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/12 AT 18 UTC:
26.0 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/13 AT 06 UTC:
26.0 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-12 02:13

WTXS32 PGTW 120300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.5S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-12 02:01

WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.5S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.7S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.5S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 73.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 904 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC THAT
IS PERIODICALLY TUCKING UNDER FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
EVIDENT AT THE ANALYSIS TIME, SUPPORTED BY A 112216Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT DEPICTS A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 TO 45 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY AN
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTALLY, TC 13S
LIES IN AN UNFAVORABLE AREA, WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VWS, AND
ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SSTS (26 CELSIUS), HOWEVER THESE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD, IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR
VECTOR, LEADING TO REDUCED RELATIVE SHEAR, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
OUTFLOW, IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO FLARE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
THE LLCC TO TUCK BACK UNDER IT. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE NER IS
MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR THE TRACK OF TC 13S TO FLATTEN
OUT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS STEERING SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING STR NORTHWEST
OF AUSTRALIA. THE WEAKENING TREND, BROUGHT ON BY THE COMBINATION OF
DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL CONTINUE AND ULTIMATELY
COMBINE TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-12 00:42

WTIO31 FMEE 120023 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 72.4 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 190 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 17/02/2019 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0-.CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-12 00:42

WTIO30 FMEE 120023 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 72.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/17 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0-.CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-12 00:25

WTIO31 FMEE 120023
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 72.4 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 190 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 17/02/2019 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0-;CI=4.0-

LES ANIMATIONS IR MONTRENT QUE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST
DESORMAIS SITUE EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES SSMI DE 2200Z MONTRENT UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE
CLASSIQUE AVEC LA CONVECTION REJETEE SOUS LE VENT ET UN COEUR SANS
CONVECTION MAIS ENCORE RELATIVEMENT SYMETRIQUE. L'AMELIORATION DE LA
CONFIGURATION DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE OBSERVEE EN DEBUT DE SOIREE
DERNIERE ETAIT DONC SEULEMENT TEMPORAIRE.

LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST QUI PILOTAIT LA TRAJECTOIRE
DE GELENA DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE AUJOURD'HUI, ALORS QUE LE TALWEG SITUE
AU SUD CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR EN SE DECALANT PLUS A L'EST, FERMANT
LA PORTE DE SORTIE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. DANS LES HEURES A
VENIR, LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER A L'ARRIERE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DANS UN
FLUX D'OUEST ZONAL EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI,
GELENA SE RETROUVE DE NOUVEAU A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ARRIVANT DEPUIS L'OUEST ET SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE
NOUVELLE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, CE QUI DEVRAIT LE FAIRE TOURNER
VERS LE SUD-EST. LA DISPERSION LATITUDINALE DES MODELES RESTE
RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE MAIS LES DIFFERENCES DE VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENTS
SONT PARFOIS IMPORTANTES. CELA EST PROBABLEMENT DU AUX DIFFERENTES
PREVISIONS D'INTENSITE QUI PLACENT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR A DES NIVEAUX
DIFFERENTS.

LES IMAGES VAPEUR D'EAU SUGGERENT UNE INTERACTION ENTRE LE SYSTEME ET
LE TOURBILLON D'ALTITUDE ASSOCIE A UN TALWEG PRESENT A PROXIMITE AU
SUD-OUEST. LES DIAGRAMMES DE PHASES ET L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DES
CHAMPS MODELES MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR CHAUD DE GELENA DEVRAIT RESTER
ENCORE ASSEZ EPAIS ET RELATIVEMENT SYMA TRIQUE DURANT QUELQUES JOURS.
AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT DIMINUER LENTEMENT AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 36H AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST FLUCTUANT (POUVANT MEME
TEMPORAIREMENT BAISSER AUJOURD'HUI), UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE
POLAIRE ALIMENTEE PAR LA PROXIMITE DU THALWEG ET DES EAUX A POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE FAIBLE MAIS ENCORE SUFFISANT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT QUITTER LES EAUX CHAUDES, CE QUI RENDRA PLUS PROBABLE
L'EVOLUTION VERS DES CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICALES. LA DISPERSION
DES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DISPONIBLES SOULIGNE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LE
RYTHME D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE GELENA.=

>

2019-02-12 00:25

WTIO30 FMEE 120023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 72.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/17 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0-;CI=4.0-

THE IR ANIMATIONS SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW LOCATED ON
THE NORTH-WESTERN BORDER OF THE CONVECTION. THE 2200Z SSMI MW IMAGES
SHOW A CLASSICAL SHEARED PATTERN WITH CONVECTION REJECTED IN THE LEE
QUADRANT (IE SOUTHEASTERN) AND A STILL RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CORE WITH
NO ASSOCIATED SURROUNDING CONVECTION. THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE
MID-LEVEL CONFIGURATION THAT OCCURRED AROUND 12Z YESTERDAY WAS THUS
ONLY TEMPORARY.

THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST THAT WAS STEERING
GELENA'S TRACK SHOULD DISAPPEAR TODAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE SOUTH KEEPS ON WEAKENING WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARDS, THUS CLOSING
THE EXIT TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. IN THE NEXT HOURS, GELENA SHOULD
TRACK IN THE REAR OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITHIN MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS. FROM FRIDAY, GELENA WILL BE LOCATED AGAIN AHEAD OF A
TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A NEW
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN. THE
CROSS-TRACK DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER WEAK BUT THE DIFFERENCES OF MOTION SPEEDS ARE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACKWISE. THIS IS LIKELY LINKED TO THE DIFFERENCES
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, PLACING THE STEERING FLOW AT DIFFERENT
LEVELS.

THE WV IMAGES SUGGEST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE UPPER
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TO A TROUGH LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. THE PHASES DIAGRAMS AND A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
OF THE MODELS FIELDS SHOW THAT GELENA'S WARM CORE SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY DEEP AND MORE OR LESS SYMMETRIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36H WITH A
FLUCTUATING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (A TEMPORARY WEAKENING IS
EVEN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON), A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE STILL
FUELED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND OVERLYING WATERS WITH LOW
BUT SUFFICIENT HEAT POTENTIAL. FROM THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE
THE WARM WATERS AND IS THUS LIKELY TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION
MORE EASILY. THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCES
HIGHLIGHTS THE UNCERTAINTY OVER GELENA'S WEAKENING PACE.=

>

2019-02-12 00:13

WTIO22 FMEE 120014
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 72.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 100 MN WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/12 AT 12 UTC:
25.8 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
25.5 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-11 20:53

WTXS32 PGTW 112100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 71.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 71.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.8S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.8S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-11 20:04

WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 71.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 71.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.8S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.8S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.8S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.4S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.8S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 72.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 838 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC BEGINNING TO PEAK OUT FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND
SUPPORTED BY A 111656Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A
RELATIVELY LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CONTINUES TO COME DOWN, NOW ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN LIGHT OF A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY VWS IS INCREASING, DECOUPLING THE LLCC FROM
FLARING CONVECTION. THOUGH THE STORM MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE
SHEAR VECTOR, THE HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VWS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST HOWEVER, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO
OCCASIONALLY FLARE. SSTS ARE MARGINAL AT AROUND 27 CELSIUS. TC
13S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) NEAR 10 DEG NORTH. AS THE NER REORIENTS, THE TRACK OF TC 13S
WILL FLATTEN TO MORE EASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. THEREAFTER AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) BUILDING ALONG AN AXIS FROM DIEGO GARCIA TO NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS VWS INCREASES
AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS,
DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z,
121500Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-11 18:28

WTIO31 FMEE 111821 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.0 S / 71.3 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 190 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 16/02/2019 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 93.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0+.CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-11 18:28

WTIO30 FMEE 111821 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 71.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/16 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 93.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0+.CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-11 18:25

WTIO31 FMEE 111821
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.0 S / 71.3 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 190 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 16/02/2019 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 93.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0+;CI=4.0-

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1258Z MONTRAIENT QU'UN DEMI-CERCLE DE
CONVECTION INTERNE S'ETAIT RECONSTITUE SOUS LE VENT, CE QUI JUSTIFIE
LE RELEVEMENT DE L'INTENSITE EFFECTUE A 12Z. MAIS DEPUIS, LA
CONFIGURATION S'EST DEGRADEE ALORS QU'UN DEPHASAGE DES IMAGES 37GHZ
ET 89GHZ ETAIT DEJA VISIBLE ET MONTRAIT QUE LE VORTEX ETAIT
SENSIBLEMENT PENCHE. DE NOUVEAU LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES SEMBLE SUR LE POINT DE SORTIR DU COUVERT DE LA CONVECTION
PRINCIPALE. L'IMAGERIE IR NE MONTRE QUE DES BURST CONVECTIFS PEU
ETENDUS DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST, SOUS LE VENT DU FORT CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR NORD-EST (35KT SELON LE CIMSS).

LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, ALORS QUE LE TALWEG SITUE AU SUD CONTINUE DE
S'AFFAIBLIR EN SE DECALANT PLUS A L'EST, FERMANT LA PORTE DE SORTIE
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. ENSUITE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU EVOLUER A
L'ARRIERE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX D'OUEST ZONAL EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LES MODELES NE SONT PAS EN BON ACCORD SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE. BIEN QUE L'ALLURE GENERALE LAISSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE QUI
DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'EST EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT EST ASSEZ DIFFERENTE ENTRE LES MODELES. CETTE DIFFERENCE
EST A METTRE EN LIEN AVEC L'ORIENTATION DU FLUX DIRECTEUR EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE VUE DIFFEREMENT ENTRE LES MODELES AINSI QU'A DES
DIFFERENCES DE NIVEAUX DU FLUW DIRECTEUR EN LIEN AVEC L'INCERTITUDE
PESANT SUR L'INTENSITE PREVUE.

LES IMAGES VAPEUR D'EAU SUGGERENT UNE INTERACTION ENTRE LE SYSTEME ET
LE TOURBILLON D'ALTITUDE ASSOCIE A UN TALWEG PRESENT A PROXIMITE AU
SUD-OUEST. LES DIAGRAMMES DE PHASES ET L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DES
CHAMPS MODELES MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR CHAUD DE GELENA DEVRAIT RESTER
ENCORE ASSEZ EPAIS ET RELATIVEMENT SYMA TRIQUE DURANT QUELQUES JOURS.
AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE STABILISER AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 36/48H AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST FLUCTUANT (POUVANT
MEME TEMPORAIREMENT BAISSER DEMAIN), UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE
POLAIRE ALIMENTEE PAR LA PROXIMITE DU THALWEG ET DES EAUX A POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE FAIBLE MAIS ENCORE SUFFISANT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT QUITTER LES EAUX CHAUDES, CE QUI RENDRA PLUS PROBABLE
L'EVOLUTION VERS DES CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICALES. LA DISPERSION
DES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DISPONIBLES SOULIGNE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LE
RYTHME D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE GELENA.=

>

2019-02-11 18:25

WTIO30 FMEE 111821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 71.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/16 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 93.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0+;CI=4.0-

THE 1258Z SSMIS MW IMAGES SHOW THAT A SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
INNER CORE MANAGED TO REORGANIZE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CENTER, WHICH
JUSTIFY FURTHER THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 12Z WARNINGS.
HOWEVER SINCE THEN, THE CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED AGAIN AS A SHIFT
BETWEEN THE 37GHZ AND 89GHZ IMAGES WAS ALREADY VISIBLE, SUGGESTING A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT VORTEX TILT. ONCE AGAIN, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER SEEMS TO BE ABOUT TO APPEAR ON THE NORTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE
MAIN CONVECTION. THE IR IMAGERY ONLY SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW
CONVECTIVE BURSTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STRONG NORTH-EASTERLY WINDSHEAR (35KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS).

GELENA'S TRACK REMAINS STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH-EAST, AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE SOUTH KEEPS ON
WEAKENING WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARDS, CLOSING THE EXIT TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES. THEN, GELENA WILL TRACK IN THE REAR OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, WITHIN MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THEY ALL
SUGGEST A SIMILAR OVERALL SHAPE OF THE TRACK, WITH A EASTWARDS TURN
ON TUESDAY, THE SPEEDS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS LIKELY RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECASTED
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN THE
LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW WHICH ARE LINKED TO THE UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE WV IMAGES SUGGEST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE UPPER
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TO A TROUGH LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. THE PHASES DIAGRAMS AND A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
OF THE MODELS FIELDS SHOW THAT GELENA'S WARM CORE SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY DEEP AND MORE OR LESS SYMMETRIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SHOULD STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48H
WITH A FLUCTUATING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (A TEMPORARY WEAKENING
IS EVEN POSSIBLE TOMORROW), A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE STILL FUELED
BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND OVERLYING WATERS WITH LOW BUT
SUFFICIENT HEAT POTENTIAL. FROM THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE
WARM WATERS AND LIKELY BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION. DISPERSION OF
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCES HIGHLIGHT THE UNCERTAINTY OVER
GELENA'S WEAKENING PACE.=

>

2019-02-11 18:13

WTIO22 FMEE 111814
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 71.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 275 MN WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/12 AT 06 UTC:
25.5 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/12 AT 18 UTC:
25.3 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-11 14:27

WTXS32 PGTW 111500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.1S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-11 14:22

WTXS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.1S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.1S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.0S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.3S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 26.8S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 70.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
TUCKING BACK UNDER WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC AND A
MICROWAVE EYE IN A 110854Z AMSR-2 36GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, IN THE MIDDLE OF A
RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T3.0 (45 KTS) TO
T4.5 (77 KTS). THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RETURNED AN ESTIMATE
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). WHILE THE LLCC TUCKED BACK UNDER CONVECTION IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS CONTINUED TO WARM AND THE PREVIOUS CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE BLEW APART INTO SPIRAL BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH (30 TO 35 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH EASTWARD OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND
SUSTAINING MARGINAL CONVECTION. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. TC 13S IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO SUSTAINED HIGH VWS AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. TC 13S
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL CROSS THE
26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL INTENSITIES AT LATER TAUS. THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND ECMWF WEAKEN THE SYSTEM STEADILY, WHILE NAVGEM
AND GFS MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A LONGER PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, HIGH VWS, AND COOL SSTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z,
120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-11 13:11

WTIO31 FMEE 111254 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.5 S / 70.3 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 210 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5+.CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-11 13:11

WTIO30 FMEE 111254 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 70.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 210 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5+.CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-11 13:08

WTIO31 FMEE 111254
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.5 S / 70.3 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 210 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5+;CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GELENA
S'EST AMELIOREE AVEC UN CENTRE EXPOSE QUI EST GRADUELLEMENT REPASSE
SOUS LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A LA FAVEUR D'UNE ACCELERATION DE LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMI DE
1045Z) MONTRENT AUSSI UN LEGER REGAIN DE D'ORGANISATION DE LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE. LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE PRESENTENT UNE DISPERSION ASSEZ
SIGNIFICATIVE. L'INTENSITE INITIALE EST REHAUSSEE A 60 KT EN SE
BASANT SUR LE PRODUIT HAUTE RESOLUTION (BYU) DE LA FAUCHEE ASCAT-A DE
CE MATIN QUI SUGGERE DES VENTS MAX AU MOINS A 60 KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, ALORS QUE LE TALWEG SITUE AU SUD CONTINUE DE
S'AFFAIBLIR EN SE DECALANT PLUS A L'EST, FERMANT LA PORTE DE SORTIE
VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD. A PARTIR DE LUNDI 18UTC, LE SYSTEME EST
PREVU EVOLUER A L'ARRIERE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX D'OUEST
ZONAL EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES MODELES NE SONT PAS EN BON ACCORD
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. BIEN QUE L'ALLURE GENERALE LAISSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
QUI DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'EST EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT EST ASSEZ DIFFERENTE ENTRE LES MODELES. CETTE
DIFFERENCE EST A METTRE EN LIEN AVEC L'ORIENTATION DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VUE DIFFEREMENT ENTRE LES MODELES AINSI QU'A
DES PRISES EN COMPTE DIFFERENTES DE L'EXTENSION VERTICALE DU SYSTEME.

L'ACCELERATION DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE PHASAGE RECENT AVEC
LA CONVECTION A ETE LA SURPRISE DU JOUR. BIEN QUE LES IMAGES VAPEUR
D'EAU SUGGERENT QUE LE SYSTEME INTERAGIT AVEC LE TOURBILLON
D'ALTITUDE ASSOCIE A UN TALWEG PRESENT A PROXIMTE SUD-OUEST,
L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE FAIT PLANER UN DOUTE SUR
L'IMMINENCE D'UNE TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE. LES DIAGRAMMES DE PHASES
AVEC GFS ET UKMO DISPONIBLES SUR LE SITE DE L'UNIVERSITE DE FLORIDE
MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR CHAUD DE GELENA DEVRAIT RESTER ENCORE ASSEZ
EPAIS DURANT QUELQUES JOURS. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE
STABILISER AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36/48H AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST FLUCTUANT (POUVANT TEMPORAIREMENT BAISSER) ET DES EAUX A
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE FAIBLE MAIS ENCORE SUFFISANT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT QUITTER LES EAUX CHAUDES, CE QUI RENDRA PLUS
PROBABLE L'EVOLUTION VERS DES CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICALES.=

>

2019-02-11 13:08

WTIO30 FMEE 111254
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 70.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 210 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5+;CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF GELENA HAS IMPROVED AGAIN
WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER THAT HAS GRADUALLY MOVED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD MOTION. LATEST MW IMAGERY
(SSMI OF 1045Z) ALSO REFLECT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE INNER-CORE
STRUCTURE. LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW
SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UPGRADED AT 60 KT
BASED ON HI-RES PRODUCT (BYU) FROM ASCAT-A DATA OF THIS MORNING THAT
SUGGEST AT LEAST 60 KT WINDS.

GELENA'S FORWARD MOTION REMAINS STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH-EAST, AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE SOUTH WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS EASTWARDS, BYPASSING THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY 18UTC, GELENA
WILL TRACK IN THE REAR OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITHIN MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PACE LEAVES A TRACK THAT SHOULD BEND
EASTWARDS ON TUESDAY, THE FORWARD MOTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS. THIS DIFFERENCE IS TO BE RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE FLOW IN MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS SEEN DIFFERENTLY BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND THE VERTICAL EXTENSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE INCREASE OF THE FORWARD MOTION ALONG WITH THE CURRENT IMPROVEMENT
OF THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS NOT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY SUGGEST
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST,
THERE IS SOME DOUBT NOW ABOUT AN IMMINENT POST-TROPICAL PHASIS.
PHASIS DIAGRAMM ANALYSIS WITH GFS AND UKMO FROM THE FLORIDA
UNIVERSITY SUGGEST THAT A DEEP WARM-CORE MAY STILL EXIST WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS
STEADY OVER THE NEXT 36/48H WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
FLUCTUATING WESTERLY SHEAR (THAT COULD EVEN DECREASE SOMETIMES) AND
LITTLE BUT ENOUGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN. FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD LEAVE THE WARM WATERS ... BY THAT TIME A TRANSITION
TOWARDS POST-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IS MORE LIKELY.=

>

2019-02-11 12:45

WTIO20 FMEE 111219 RRA
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 70.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
25.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

2019-02-11 12:16

WTIO20 FMEE 111219
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 70.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
25.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/12 AT 12 UTC:
25.6 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-11 08:11

WTXS32 PGTW 110900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 69.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.7S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-11 08:05

WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 69.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.7S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.1S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.1S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.1S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 29.0S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 69.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 686 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A NOW-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS,
IN THE MIDDLE OF A RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
T3.5 (55 KTS) TO T4.5 (77 KTS), BASED ON A 110407Z ASCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED 60 KT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGH (30 to 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96
WITH A SPREAD OF 180NM AT TAU 96. THE ECMWF SOLUTION DEPICTS SLOWER
ALONG-TRACK SPEED THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHILE NAVGEM AND
GFS ARE FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY
DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU
72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND
ORIENTATION. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOL SSTS, WHICH WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS AFTER TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-11 07:01

WTIO31 FMEE 110650 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 68.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 160 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0+.CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-11 07:01

WTIO30 FMEE 110650 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 68.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 160 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0+.CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-11 06:58

WTIO31 FMEE 110650
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 68.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 160 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0+;CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GELENA
A CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER AVEC UN CENTRE EXPOSE PRES DE LA BORDURE
NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT CROISSANT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST (A PRES DE 30 KT SELON LES
DERNIERES DONNEES ESTIMEES PAR LE CIMSS A 03Z). L'INTENSITE INITIALE
EST ESTIMEE A 55 KT, BASEE SUR L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK EN TENANT COMPTE
DU MAXIMUM D'INERTIE ENTRE LE FT ET LE CI, EN ACCORD AVEC LES
DERNIERES DONNEES PARTIELLES D'ASCAT SUGERRANT DES VENTS A 50/55 PRES
DU CENTRE.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, ALORS QUE LE TALWEG SITUE AU SUD CONTINUE DE
S'AFFAIBLIR EN SE DECALANT PLUS A L'EST, FERMANT LA PORTE DE SORTIE
VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD. GELENA CONTINUE SON RALENTISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF QUI VA SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 6H. A PARTIR
DE LUNDI 18UTC, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU EVOLUER A L'ARRIERE DU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX D'OUEST ZONAL EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES
MODELES NE SONT PAS EN BON ACCORD SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. BIEN QUE
L'ALLURE GENERALE LAISSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER
VERS L'EST EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT EST ASSEZ
DIFFERENTE ENTRE LES MODELES. CETTE DIFFERENCE EST A METTRE EN LIEN
AVEC L'ORIENTATION DU FLUX DIRECTEUR EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VUE
DIFFEREMENT ENTRE LES MODELES AINSI QU'A DES PRISES EN COMPTE
DIFFERENTES DE L'EXTENSION VERTICALE DU SYSTEME.

AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DE GELENA, LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIENT ETRE PLUS MARQUES ET CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS
NOTABLE.TOUTEFOIS LES IMAGES VAPEUR D'EAU SUGGERENT QUE LE SYSTEME
INTERAGIT AVEC LE TOURBILLON D'ALTITUDE ASSOCIE A UN TALWEG PRESENT A
PROXIMTE SUD-OUEST. CETTE INTERACTION SUGGRE QUE LES PROCESSUS
BAROCLINES VONT GRADUELLEMENT PRENDRE DE L'IMPORTANCE POUR MAINTENIR
LA FORCE DU SYSTEME. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.=

>

2019-02-11 06:58

WTIO30 FMEE 110650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 68.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 160 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0+;CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF GELENA HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE WITH NOW A CENTER EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTIVE MASS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY DEEP LAYER WINDSHEAR (AROUND 30 KT ACCORDING
CIMSS DATA AT 03Z). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT AND IS
STILL BASED ON DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH THE LARGEST LAG POSSIBLE WITH THE
CI NUMBERS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST PARTIAL ASCAT DATA THAT STILL
SUGGEST 50/55 KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER.

GELENA'S FORWARD MOTION REMAINS STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH-EAST, AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE SOUTH WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS EASTWARDS, CLOSING THE EXIT GATE TO MORE SOUTHERLY
LATITUDES. GELENA CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL SLOWDOWN THAT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. FROM MONDAY 18UTC, GELENA WILL TRACK IN THE
REAR OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITHIN MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE
OVERALL PACE LEAVES A TRACK THAT SHOULD BEND EASTWARDS ON TUESDAY,
THE FORWARD MOTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THIS
DIFFERENCE IS TO BE RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW IN
MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS SEEN DIFFERENTLY BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE VERTICAL EXTENSION OF THE SYSTEM.

TODAY WITH THE DECREASE OF GELENA'S SPEED, THE EFFECTS OF THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD BE MORE IMPORTANT LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF
THE INTENSITY. BUT WV IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT BAROCLINIC INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOCATED TO THE NEAR
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL START TO INCREASE BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE
AND MAINTAINING GELENA'S STRENGTH. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP POST-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.=

>

2019-02-11 06:14

WTIO20 FMEE 110611
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 68.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
24.9 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/12 AT 06 UTC:
25.4 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-11 02:32

WTXS32 PGTW 110300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 23.1S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.9S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-11 02:08

WTXS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 23.1S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.9S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.5S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.8S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.9S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.3S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 27.4S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 68.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 623 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC GELENA HAS STEADILY
WEAKENED WITH DECAYING CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 110016Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS
BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO 4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A
SPREAD OF 115NM AT TAU 96. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE
TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU
72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND
ORIENTATION. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOL SST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND
120300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-11 00:43

WTIO31 FMEE 110021 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 67.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+.CI=4.0+

>

2019-02-11 00:43

WTIO30 FMEE 110021 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+.CI=4.0+

>

2019-02-11 00:27

WTIO31 FMEE 110021
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/9/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 67.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 80 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+;CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GELENA A BEAUCOUP EVOLUE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES 6 HEURES. D'UNE CONFIGURATION EN CDO, ELLE A EVOLUE EN
BANDE INCURVEE ET TEND SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES A DEFINIR UNE
CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE, AVEC UN CENTRE EN LIMITE NORD DE LA MASSE
CONVECTIVE. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST CONFIRMEE PAR LA PASSE SSMI DE
2215UTC. L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE
DE 60KT, PASSANT GELENA AU SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, ALORS QUE LE TALWEG SITUE AU SUD CONTINUE DE
S'AFFAIBLIR EN SE DECALANT PLUS A L'EST, FERMANT LA PORTE DE SORTIE
VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD. GELENA CONTINUE SON RALENTISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF QUI VA SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 6H. A PARTIR
DE LUNDI 18UTC, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU EVOLUER A L'ARRIERE DU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX D'OUEST ZONAL EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES
MODELES NE SONT PAS EN BON ACCORD SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. BIEN QUE
L'ALLURE GENERALE LAISSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER
VERS L'EST EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT EST ASSEZ
DIFFERENTE ENTRE LES MODELES AVEC UNE COMPOSANTE EST-NORD-EST QUI
RESSORT UN PEU PLUS. CETTE DIFFERENCE EST A METTRE EN LIEN AVEC
L'ORIENTATION DU FLUX DIRECTEUR EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VUE
DIFFEREMENT ENTRE LES MODELES.

A PARTIR D'AUJOURD'HUI DIMANCHE ET DEMAIN, AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DE
GELENA, LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIENT ETRE PLUS MARQUES ET
CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS NOTABLE. MARDI, A L'ARRIERE DU
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DIMINUE ET LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT. BIEN QUE GELENA CIRCULE
SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE ENCORE PRESENT MAIS LIMITE,
L'ENVIRONNEMENT ATMOSPHERIQUE DEFAVORABLE (FORTS VENTS D'OUEST DE
MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD DU JET SUBTROPICAL ET AIR SEC
PENETRANT DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME) NE LAISSERA PAS DE POSSIBILITE DE
REINTENSIFICATION, POUR UN SYSTME QUI CONTINUERA SA TRAJECTOIRE AUX
ALENTOURS DU 25AOS.=

>

2019-02-11 00:27

WTIO30 FMEE 110021
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+;CI=4.0+

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF GELENA HAS EVOLVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. FROM A
CDO PATTERN, IT HAS EVOLVED INTO A CURVED BAND PATTERN AND TENDS ON
THE LAST IMAGES TO DEFINE A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH A CENTER AT THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THIS PATTERN IS CONFIRMED
BY THE 2215UTC SSMI DATAS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS AN ESTIMATE OF
WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 60KT, PASSING GELENA AT THE THRESHOLD OF A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

GELENA'S DISPLACEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH-EAST, AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARDS, CLOSING THE EXIT GATE TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES.
GELENA CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL SLOWDOWN THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS. FROM MONDAY 18UTC, GELENA WILL TRACK IN THE REAR OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITHIN MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
PACE LEAVES A TRACK THAT SHOULD STRAIGHTEN EASTWARD ON TUESDAY, THE
MOVEMENT SPEED IS QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH AN
EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT THAT STANDS OUT A LITTLE MORE. THIS
DIFFERENCE IS TO BE RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW IN
MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS SEEN DIFFERENTLY BETWEEN THE MODELS.

TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE DECREASE OF GELENA'S SPEED, THE EFFECTS OF
THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD BE MORE IMPORTANT LEADING TO A
WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY. FROM TUESDAY HOWEVER, WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE DECREASES AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
MORE QUICKLY. ALTHOUGH GELENA MOVES OVER WATERS WITH STILL PRESENT
BUT LIMITED ENERGY POTENTIAL, THE UNFAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT (STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF UPPER AND MID LEVELS
TROPOSPHERE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND DRY AIR PENETRATING INTO
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM) WILL NOT LEAVE ANY POSSIBILITY OF
REINTENSIFICATION, FOR A SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK AROUND
25AOS.=

>

2019-02-11 00:08

WTIO20 FMEE 110006
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
180 MN WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/11 AT 12 UTC:
23.9 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
24.6 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-10 20:49

WTXS32 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.2S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-10 20:32

WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.2S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.1S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.4S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.5S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.0S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.7S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC GELENA HAS STEADILY
WEAKENED WITH DECAYING CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 101654Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED YET LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO 4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A SPREAD OF 150NM AT TAU 96. TC 13S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND ORIENTATION. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH
MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
COOL SST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-10 18:44

WTIO31 FMEE 101820 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 66.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+.CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-10 18:44

WTIO30 FMEE 101820 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+.CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-10 18:42

WTIO31 FMEE 101820
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 66.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+;CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO S'EST MAINTENUE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES 6 HEURES, AVEC DES SOMMETS DE NUAGES QUI SE RECHAUFFENT.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 89GHZ METOP-A DE 1654UTC CONFIRME UNE OUVERTURE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU COEUR DE GELANA. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO
PERMET UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 65KT, ENCORE AU SEUIL
DU SEUIL DE CYCLONE.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, ALORS QUE LE TALWEG SITUE AU SUD S'AFFAIBLIT
EN SE DECALANT PLUS A L'EST, FERMANT LA PORTE DE SORTIE VERS LES
LATITUDES PLUS SUD. GELENA A AINSI COMMENCE UN RALENTISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF QUI VA SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H. A PARTIR
DE LUNDI 18UTC, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU EVOLUER A L'ARRIERE DU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX D'OUEST ZONAL EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT ALORS SE REDRESSER VERS L'EST EN JOURNEE DE
MARDI. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DE L'EPS MONTRENT
UNE AUGMENTATION DE L'INCERTITUDE A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR, UNE FOIS LE
VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST EFFECTUE QUI EST A METTRE EN LIEN AVEC
L'ORIENTATION DU FLUX DIRECTEUR EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POUVANT
PRENDRE UNE LEGERE COMPOSANTE EST-NORD-EST.

DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DE GELENA, LES EFFETS DU
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIENT ETRE PLUS MARQUES ET CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS NOTABLE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, A L'ARRIERE DU
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DIMINUE ET LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT. BIEN QUE GELENA CIRCULE
SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE ENCORE PRESENT MAIS LIMITE,
L'ENVIRONNEMENT ATMOSPHERIQUE DEFAVORABLE (FORTS VENTS D'OUEST DE
MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD DU JET SUBTROPICAL ET AIR SEC
PENETRANT DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME) NE LAISSERA PAS DE POSSIBILITE DE
REINTENSIFICATION, POUR UN SYSTME QUI CONTINUERA SA TRAJECTOIRE AUX
ALENTOURS DU 25AOS.=

>

2019-02-10 18:42

WTIO30 FMEE 101820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+;CI=4.5-

THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH
CLOUD TOPS WARMING. THE METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 1654UTC
CONFIRMS AN OPENING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE GELANA CORE.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO PATTERN ALLOWS AN ESTIMATE OF WINDS IN THE
ORDER OF 65KT, STILL AT THE THRESHOLD OF THE CYCLONE THRESHOLD.

GELENA'S DISPLACEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH-EAST, AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARDS, CLOSING THE EXIT GATE TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES.
GELENA HAS THUS STARTED A GRADUAL SLOWDOWN THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY 18UTC, GELENA WILL TRACK IN THE REAR
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITHIN MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND WESTWARD TUESDAY. THE SPREAD OF
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWS A MODERATE
INCREASE IN THE UNCERTAINTY FROM TUESDAY EVENING, ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS
FINISHED TO TURN WESTWARD WHICH IS TO BE LINKED TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE FLOW IN MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE WHICH CAN TAKE A SLIGHT
EAST-NORTH-EAST COMPONENT.

TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE DECREASE OF GELENA'S SPEED, THE EFFECTS OF
THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD BE MORE IMPORTANT LEADING TO A
WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY. FROM TUESDAY HOWEVER, WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE DECREASES AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
MORE QUICKLY. ALTHOUGH GELENA MOVES OVER WATERS WITH STILL PRESENT
BUT LIMITED ENERGY POTENTIAL, THE UNFAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT (STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF UPPER AND MID LEVELS
TROPOSPHERE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND DRY AIR PENETRATING INTO
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM) WILL NOT LEAVE ANY POSSIBILITY OF
REINTENSIFICATION, FOR A SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK AROUND
25AOS.=

>

2019-02-10 18:03

WTIO20 FMEE 101804
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 150 MN WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
23.8 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
24.6 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-10 14:53

WTXS32 PGTW 101500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 65.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 65.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-10 14:32

WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 65.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 65.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.0S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.6S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.7S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.8S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 26.1S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 29.2S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 66.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFORMING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON INFLOW UNDER THE CDO
IN THE MSI LOOP AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A PARTIAL 101113Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 90
KTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FMEE AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS), BUT ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77
KTS). A 100909Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 88 KTS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE
SYSTEM HAS INCREASED TO 25 TO 30 KTS, LEADING TO THE OBSERVED
WEAKENING. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH, WHICH WILL RECEDE
TO THE WEST AND ALLOW ANOTHER NER TO THE EAST TO BUILD IN AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
WITH A SPREAD OF 150NM AT TAU 120. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. TC 13S WILL LOSE ITS
FAVORABLE POLEWARD VENTING AFTER THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH
MOVES FURTHER EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO
WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD WITHIN THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72, WHILE NAVGEM,
GFS, AND GALWEM ALL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A HIGHER INTENSITY AND
TRACK THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC
FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED CLOSE TO MESOSCALE MODEL AND
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VWS, SSTS BELOW 26 CELSIUS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST TRACK, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-10 12:14

WTIO20 FMEE 101216
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 65.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 125 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 175 MN WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/11 AT 00 UTC:
23.3 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/11 AT 12 UTC:
24.4 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-10 09:38

WTXS32 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.4S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-10 08:51

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.4S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.6S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.5S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.9S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.7S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.2S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 27.4S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 64.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED, INTERMITTENT EYE
THAT IS OCCASIONALLY SUBSUMED INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON INFLOW UNDER THE CDO IN THE MSI
LOOP AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 100239Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 95 KNOTS, BETWEEN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM FMEE, DUE TO THE INCONSISTENT STRUCTURE
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A 100406Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 91 KTS. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 125NM AT TAU 120. TC 13S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VWS AND
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
TC 13S WILL LOSE ITS FAVORABLE POLEWARD VENTING AFTER THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH MOVES FURTHER EAST. AFTER TAU 72,
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH
MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER
TAU 72, WHILE NAVGEM, GFS, AND GALWEM ALL MAINTAIN A HIGHER
INTENSITY AND TRACK THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, INCREASING VWS,
SSTS BELOW 26 CELSIUS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST TRACK, AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-10 07:02

WTIO31 FMEE 100623 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 64.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 2.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5-.CI=5.0+

>

2019-02-10 07:02

WTIO30 FMEE 100623 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 64.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 2.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5-.CI=5.0+

>

2019-02-10 06:59

WTIO31 FMEE 100623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 64.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 2.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5-;CI=5.0+

LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE A RELEVE DES RAFALES MAXIMUM DE
165KM/H ET UNE PRESSION ATMOSPHERIQUE MINIMALE DE 993 HPA SUR LA
STATION DE POINTE CANON A L'ILE RODRIGUES. A 0200Z, LA BOUEE OMM NUM
5601527 A RELEVE UNE PRESSION DE 981HPA A ENVIRON 22MN DU CENTRE DE
GELENA.

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL N'EST PAS
REAPPARUE SUR LES IMAGES IR, SEUL UN POINT CHAUD EST VISIBLE DE FACON
INTERMITTENTE. CEPENDANT, UN OEIL DECHIQUETE EST ENCORE PRESENT SUR
L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 89GHZ GMI DE 0106Z MONTRE UN
ANNEAU DE CONVECTION CENTRAL OUVERT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET
UNE SECONDE BANDE S'ENROULANT AUTOUR DU COEUR PAR L'OUEST. CELA
SEMBLE SUGGERER QU'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL A DEBUTE
MAIS QUE LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST L'A POSSIBLEMENT
INTERROMPU. POUR TENIR COMPTE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LIE A CE DEBUT
D'ERC, LE CI DE DVORAK N'A ETE GARDE QUE DE .5 AU DESSUS DU T FINAL.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE
A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. DEMAIN, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU TALWEG, GELENA DEVRAIT RALENTIR PROGRESSIVEMENT.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU EVOLUER A L'ARRIERE DU
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX D'OUEST ZONAL. LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT
ALORS SE REDRESSER VERS L'EST VOIRE MA ME TEMPORAIREMENT VERS
L'EST-NORD-EST AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE DE MARDI. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DE L'EPS MONTRENT UNE AUGMENTATION DE
L'INCERTITUDE A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, UNE FOIS LE VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST
EFFECTUE.

DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT PREVU DE GELENA, LES EFFETS
DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIENT ETRE PLUS MARQUA S ET DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT. MAIS LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENCORE TIRER PARTIE DE
LA BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POUR CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE JUSQU'A LUNDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE MARDI, A L'ARRIA RE DU
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DIMINUE ET LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT. EN ALTITUDE, LES VENTS
D'OUEST DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD DU JET SUBTROPICAL NE
LAISSENT PAS DE POSSIBILITE DE REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

2019-02-10 06:59

WTIO30 FMEE 100623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 64.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 2.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5-;CI=5.0+

THE MAURITIAN MET SERVICE PROVIDED SOME GROUND OBSERVATION DATA FROM
RODRIGUES ISLAND : A 165KM/H-MAX GUST AND A 993HPA-MIN PRESSURE FOR
THE STATION OF POINTE CANON. OMM BUOY NB 5601527 READ A 981HPA
PRESSURE AT 0200Z THIS MORNING, APPROXIMATELY 22NM FROM GELENA'S
CENTER.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN DID NOT REAPPEARED ON THE IR
IMAGES, ONLY AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT REMAINS. HOWEVER, A RAGGED EYE
IS STILL DISPLAYED ON VIS IMAGERY. THE GMI 89GHZ MW IMAGE SHOWS THAT
THE CENTRAL INNER-RING OF CONVECTION IS OPENED IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND A SECONDARY BAND TENDS TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS
INDEED BEGAN BUT THAT THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR HAS POSSIBLY
INTERRUPTED IT. TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE WEAKENING DUE TO THE ERC,
DVORAK'S CI ONLY DRAGS .5 BEHIND THE FINAL T NUMBER.

GELENA REMAINS STEERED BY THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. TODAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN. FROM MONDAY
EVENING, GELENA WILL TRACK IN THE REAR OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
WITHIN WESTERLY WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND WESTWARD
AND TEMPORARILY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD TUESDAY. THE SPREAD OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE EURO ENSEMBLE SHOWS A MODERATE INCREASE
IN THE UNCERTAINTY FROM MONDAY EVENING, ONCE THE WESTWARD TURN HAS
BEEN DONE.

TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE DECREASE OF GELENA'S SPEED, THE EFFECTS OF
THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD BE MORE IMPORTANT LEADING TO A
WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
STILL BENEFIT FROM THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. FROM TUESDAY
HOWEVER, WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AT A
QUICKER PACE. IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS, THE WESTERLY WINDS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM DO NOT ALLOW A REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

2019-02-10 06:13

WTIO20 FMEE 100614
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 64.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
22.5 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
23.8 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-10 03:00

WTXS32 PGTW 100300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.3S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-10 02:50

WTXS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.3S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.4S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.4S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.0S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.3S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.2S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 63.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE AND RAGGED EYE. HOWEVER, A 100039Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT CORE WITH A ROUND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20
TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 125NM AT TAU 120. TC 13S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE
PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS
(OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD WITHIN THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A DISSIPATION
SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(FUNANI) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW 092100).//
NNNN

>

2019-02-10 00:45

WTIO31 FMEE 100026 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 63.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 946 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=6.0

>

2019-02-10 00:45

WTIO30 FMEE 100026 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 63.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=6.0

>

2019-02-10 00:45

WTIO20 FMEE 100007 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 946 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 63.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE SOUTHTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
21.3 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-10 00:24

WTIO31 FMEE 100026
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 63.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 946 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=6.0
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN
IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE A CONTINUE DE SE DETERIORER AVEC UN OEIL QUI A
DISPARU. PAR CONTRE, DEPUIS 2315Z, UN OEIL REAPPARAIT SUR LES IMAGES
IR. LA MICRO-ONDE PARTIELLE AMSR2 DE 2139Z SEMBLE CONFIRMER QU'UN
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL SOIT EN COURS.
LE CENTRE DE GELANA A TRANSITE VERS 2300Z AU PLUS PRES DES COTES DE
RODRIGUES A ENVIRON 50KM DANS LE SUD-OUEST DES CA TES. IL S'ELOIGNE
DESORMAIS.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE
A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. DEMAIN, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU TALWEG , LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT RALENTIR
PROGRESSIVEMENT. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU EVOLUER
A L'ARRIERE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX D'OUEST PLUS ZONAL. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT ALORS SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST VOIRE MA ME
TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE DE
MARDI SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE
RECONSTRUIT SUR MADAGASCAR ET LES MASCAREIGNES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI,
L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE. LA PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE
EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS MULTI-MODELES.

DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT PREVU DE GELANE, LES EFFETS
DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIENT ETRE PLUS MARQUA S ET DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT. MAIS LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TOUJOURS TIRER PARTI DE
LA BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POUR CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, A L'ARRIA RE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE,
AVEC UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MOINS BONNE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA DANS LES
VENTS D'OUEST DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD DU JET
SUBTROPICAL.=

>

2019-02-10 00:24

WTIO30 FMEE 100026
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 63.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS
CONTINUATED TO DETERIORATE WITH AN EYE THAT HAS DISAPPEARED. HOWEVER,
SINCE 2315, THE EYE RE-APPEARS IN IR IMAGERY. PARTIAL 2139Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SEEMS CONFIRM THAT AN ERC IS IN PROGRESS.
THE CENTRE OF GELANA TRANSITED AT 2300Z ABOUT 50 KM IN THE SOUTHWEST
OF RODRIGUES ISLAND AND NOW MOVES AWAY.

THE MOVEMENT OF GELENA REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID
LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. TODAY, WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE TRACK SHOULD SLOW DOWN.
FROM MONDAY EVENING, GELANE IS FORECASTED TO EVOLVE BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN WESTERLY WINDS. SO, THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE
WESTWARD AND TEMPORALLY WESTNORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY STEERED BY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD BUILD OVER MADAGASCAR.
FROM MONDAY THERE IS A LOT MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE MODELS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE FORECASTED SLOWING DOWN OF GELANE, THE
EFFECTS OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD BE MORE IMPORTANT LEADING TO
A WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY. BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THE
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MAINTAIN
A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. FROM TUESDAY, BEHIND THE TROUGH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY WHILE IT EVOLVES WITHIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM.=

>

2019-02-10 00:06

WTIO20 FMEE 100007
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 946 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 63.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE SOUTHTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
21.3 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/11 AT 00 UTC:
22.5 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-09 21:09

WTXS32 PGTW 092100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.6S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-09 20:58

WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.6S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.8S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.9S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.8S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.2S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH AN OBLONG CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE AND RAGGED EYE. HOWEVER, A 091716Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A COMPACT CORE WITH A ROUND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5 (102 KNOTS) TO 6.0 (115 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20
TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 160NM AT
TAU 72. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND ORIENTATION. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH
MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 18:32

WTIO31 FMEE 091818 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 61.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5- CI=6.5-

>

2019-02-09 18:32

WTIO30 FMEE 091818 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 61.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5- CI=6.5-

>

2019-02-09 18:29

WTIO31 FMEE 091818
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 61.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5- CI=6.5-
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN
IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE S'EST DA GRADA E AVEC UN A IL MOINS BIEN DA FINI
ET QUI S'EST REFROIDI.
CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT A TRE LIE A CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'A
IL (ERC) MAIS L'ABSENCE DE MICRO-ONDE RA CENTE NE PERMET PAS DE
VALIDER CETTE HYPOTHA SE AVEC CERTITUDE. EN REVANCHE, UN ERC LORS DU
PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DE RODRIGUES POURRAIT IMPACTER L'A LE AVEC
L'ELARGISSEMENT DES VENTS FORTS ASSOCIA ES ET LA POSSIBILITA D'UN
IMPACT DIRECT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. LA DERNIERE TRAJECTOIRE PROPOSE UN
PASSAGE AU PLUS PRA S DE RODIGUES A UNE SOIXANTAINE DE KM DANS LE
SECTEUR SUD-EST VERS 0000Z.
ASSOCIE A GELANA DES VAGUES DE HAUTEURS SIGNIFICATIVES DE PRES DE 5M
ET UNE MONTEE ANORMALE DU NIVEAU DE LA MER POUVANT ATTEINDRE JUSQU'A
2M SONT ATTENDUES DANS CERTAINS SECTEURS EXPOSES DE RODRIGUES.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE
A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. DEMAIN, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU TALWEG , LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT RALENTIR
PROGRESSIVEMENT. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU EVOLUER
A L'ARRIERE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX D'OUEST PLUS ZONAL. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT ALORS SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST VOIRE MA ME
TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE DE
MARDI SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE
RECONSTRUIT SUR MADAGASCAR ET LES MASCAREIGNES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, IL
Y A PLUS D'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. LA PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE
EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUR MULTI-MODELES.

DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT PREVU DE GELANE, LES EFFETS
DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ETRE PLUS MARQUA S ET DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. MAIS LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TOUJOURS TIRER PARTI DE LA
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POUR CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, A L'ARRIA RE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE,
AVEC UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MOINS BONNE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA DANS LES
VENTS D'OUEST DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD DU JET
SUBTROPICAL.=

>

2019-02-09 18:29

WTIO30 FMEE 091818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 61.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5- CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS
DETERIORATED WITH AN EYE WARMER AND LESS WELL-DEFINED.
THIS WEAKENING COULD BE ASSOCIATED TO AN ERC BUT WITHOUT RECENT
MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES, IT'S DIFFICULT TO VALIDATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER, AN ERC DURING THE TRANSIT OF GELENA IN THE VICINITY OF
RODIGUES COULD IMPACT THE ISLAND WITH THE WIDENING OF THE STRONG
WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A DIRECT IMPACT OF THE EYEWALL. ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK, GELANE SHOULD TRANSIT 60 KM ON SOUTHEAST OF
RODRIGUES NEAR 0000Z.
A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT ACCOMPANIES THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
GELENA: WAVES OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF NEARLY 5M AND AN ANOMALOUS
SEA LEVEL RISING OF UP TO 2 METERS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOME EXPOSED
AREAS OF RODRIGUES.

THE MOVEMENT OF GELENA REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID
LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. TOMORROW, WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE TRACK SHOULD SLOW DOWN.
FROM MONDAY EVENING, GELANE IS FORECASTED TO EVOLVE BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN WESTERLY WINDS. SO, THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE
WESTWARD AND TEMPORALLY WESTNORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY STEERED BY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD BUILD OVER MADAGASCAR.
FROM MONDAY THERE IS A LOT MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE MODELS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE FORECASTED SLOWING DOWN OF GELANE, THE
EFFECTS OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD BE MORE IMPORTANT LEADING TO
A WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY. BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THE
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MAINTAIN
A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. FROM TUESDAY, BEHIND THE TROUGH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY WHILE IT EVOLVES WITHIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM.=

>

2019-02-09 18:15

WTIO20 FMEE 091814 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 61.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-09 18:12

WTIO20 FMEE 091814
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 61.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
21.9 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-09 14:52

WTXS32 PGTW 091500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 60.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 60.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.9S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-09 14:37

WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 60.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 60.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.9S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.2S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.4S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.3S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.1S 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.9S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.4S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 61.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS),
AND A 090929Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 125 KTS. TC 13S IS TAPPING INTO A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE (29-
30C) AND HAVE ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY FURTHER. TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT
AFTERWARDS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AS THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LEAVES TC 13S BEHIND. SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS NOW
450NM DUE TO THE UKMET MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER ALONG-
TRACK MOTION THAN OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHILE THE GALWEM SOLUTION
IS NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE AFTER TAU 12, WITH INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH MOVES
EASTWARD AND NO LONGER SUPPORTS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 12. MESOSCALE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITIES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH VWS WILL
REMAIN HIGH, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE LIMITED BY UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING INTO DRIER AIR,
AND SSTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT
VALUES. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO MAINTAIN
WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z,
100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 13:24

WTIO31 FMEE 091317 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 60.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

>

2019-02-09 13:24

WTIO30 FMEE 091317 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 60.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

>

2019-02-09 13:21

WTIO31 FMEE 091317
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 60.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

ATTENTION, GELENA EST UN CYCLONE EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX QUI SE DIRIGE
VERS RODRIGUES! LES INCERTITUDES DANS LA PREVISION PEUVENT ENCORE
PERMETTRE UN IMPACT DIRECT SUR RODRIGUES. QUOIQU'IL EN SOIT, DANS
L'ETAT ACTUEL DE LA PREVISION, LA ZONE DE VENT LES PLUS FORTS EST
PREVU PASSER A MOINS DE 30KM DES COTES DE RODRIGUES LA NUIT PROCHAINE
OU TRES TOT DEMAIN MATIN. CETTE MENACE EST TRES SERIEUSE POUR L'ILE
ET
LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES PROCHAINS
BULLETINS ET PRODUITS DIFFUSES PAR LE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES.

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FROIDS ENTOURANT
L'OEIL. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE EST AUGMENTEE A 110 KT EN SE BASANT SUR
LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK DE 6.5-.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE
A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS
DEFINISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA ET PERMETTENT UNE BONNE
CONFIANCE POUR LES DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS. GELENA CONSERVE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE A L'EST-SUD-EST QUI DEVRAIT RESTER RAPIDE
JUSQU'A DEMAIN ET QUI L'AMENE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE RODRIGUES.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT RALENTIR PROGRESSIVEMENT EN S'ORIENTANT
VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOUS L'EFFET DU BLOCAGE DES HAUTES
PRESSIONS QUI SE METTENT EN PLACE PLUS AU SUD. A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN
JOURNEE, IL Y A PLUS D'INCERTITUDE SUR LE TRAJECTOIRE EN LIEN AVEC LA
RAPIDITE AVEC LAQUELLE LE SYSTEME VA S'AFFAIBLIR. LA PRESENTE
TRAJECTOIRE EST PROCHE DE GFS EN DEBUT DE PERIODE PUIS TEND VERS LE
MULTI-ENSEMBLE.

LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME LUI PERMET DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS
DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. COMPTE TENU DE LA
TENDANCE ACTUELLE, GELENA POURRAIT ENCORE GAGNER UN PEU EN INTENSITE
AVANT DE COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE ET
PLUS NOTABLEMENT DIMANCHE.

UN EPISODE DE HOULE CYCLONIQUE TRES SIGNIFICATIVE ACCOMPAGNE LE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GELENA : DES VAGUES DE HAUTEURS
SIGNIFICATIVES DE PRES DE 5M ET UNE MONTEE ANORMALE DU NIVEAU DE LA
MER POUVANT ATTEINDRE JUSQU'A 2M SONT ATTENDUES DANS CERTAINS
SECTEURS EXPOSES DE RODRIGUES.=

>

2019-02-09 13:21

WTIO30 FMEE 091317
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 60.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

BE CAREFUL, GELENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CYCLONE HEADING TOWARDS
RODRIGUES! UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST MAY STILL ALLOW A DIRECT
IMPACT ON RODRIGUES. ANYWAY, IN THE CURRENT STATE OF THE FORECAST,
THE STRONGEST WIND AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 30KM FROM THE
RODRIGUE COASTS NEXT NIGHT OR VERY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS A
VERY SERIOUS SITUATION AND THE INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS
AND PRODUCTS FROM MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

THE EYE PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ON THE LATEST IMAGES WITH COLDER
CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 110 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ANALYSES OF 6.5-.

THE MOVEMENT OF GELENA REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID
LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE TRACK AND PROVIDE GOOD CONFIDENCE
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GELENA MAINTAINS AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK THAT
SHOULD REMAIN FAST UNTIL TOMORROW AND BRING IT IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF RODRIGUES. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS IT
MOVES WESTWARDS FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECT OF THE
HIGH PRESSURES THAT ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH. FROM MONDAY THERE
IS A LOT MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. THE CURRENT TRACK LIES MORE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AT
THE INITIAL STAGE AND THEN IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CURRENT RAPID MOTION OF GELENA ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL
EFFECTS OF AN INCREASE OF THE SHEAR AT PRESENT TIME. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TREND, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY BEFORE A
WEAKENING TREND THAT SHOULD START LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT ACCOMPANIES THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
GELENA: WAVES OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF NEARLY 5M AND AN ANOMALOUS
SEA LEVEL RISING OF UP TO 2 METERS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOME EXPOSED
AREAS OF RODRIGUES.=

>

2019-02-09 12:47

WTIO20 FMEE 091222 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 60.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-09 12:21

WTIO20 FMEE 091222
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 60.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-09 09:38

WTXS32 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.2S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-09 09:06

WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.2S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.5S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.8S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.9S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.1S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.9S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115
KTS). TC 13S IS TAPPING INTO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SST
VALUES (29-30C) ARE FUELING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN
EXPECTED PEAK AT 130 KTS AT TAU 12. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT AFTERWARDS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND
NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LEAVES TC 13S BEHIND.
AFTER TAU 72, ECMWF IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER, WHILE NAVGEM AND GFS
BRING THE TRACK SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS; HOWEVER, ALL
MODELS AGREE ON A DUE EASTWARD TRACK AND SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS ONLY
150 NM. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MESOSCALE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IN THE NEAR TERM BUT STILL SHOWS
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, COAMPS-NAVGEM AND
HWRF MAINTAIN SYSTEM INTENSITY ABOVE 65 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH VWS WILL REMAIN HIGH, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE
LIMITED BY UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BE TRACKING INTO DRIER AIR. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 07:12

WTIO31 FMEE 090641 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0+, CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-09 07:12

WTIO30 FMEE 090641 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+, CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-09 07:09

WTIO31 FMEE 090641
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0+, CI=6.0+

GELENA EST UN CYCLONE EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX QUI SE DIRIGE VERS
RODRIGUES !

SUR LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST ENCORE
AMELIOREE AVEC UN OEIL SE RECHAUFFANT ET DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE PLUS
EN PLUS FROIDS. L'INTENSITE INITIALE EST AUGMENTEE A 105 KT EN SE
BASANT SUR LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK. A NOTER QUE DEPUIS 0545
UTC, LES ANALYSES BRUTES SONT A 6.5.

GELENA ACCELERE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE MAINTENANT A
L'EST-SUD-EST QUI DEVRAIT RESTER RAPIDE JUSQU'A DEMAIN AVANT UN
RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF. LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR
LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS DEFINISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
GELENA ET PERMETTENT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE POUR LES DEUX PROCHAINS
JOURS.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN JOURNEE, IL Y A PLUS D'INCERTITUDE EN LIEN AVEC
LA RAPIDITE AVEC LAQUELLE LE SYSTEME VA S'AFFAIBLIR. LA PRESENTE
TARJECTOIRE EST PROCHE DE GFS EN DEBUT DE PERIODE PUIS TEND VERS LE
MULTI-ENSEMBLE.

LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME LUI PERMET DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS
DE LA HAUSSE EN COURS DU CISAILLEMENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. COMPTE
TENU DE LA TENDANCE ACTUELLE, GELENA POURRAIT ENCORE GAGNER UN PEU EN
INTENSITE AVANT DE COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LA NUIT ET PLUS
NOTABLEMENT DEMAIN.

GELENA DEVRAIT PASSER TRES PRES OU SUR RODRIGUES LA NUIT PROCHAINE OU
TRES TOT DEMAIN MATIN. CETTE UNE MENACE TRES SERIEUSE POUR L'ILE ET
LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES PROCHAINS
BULLETINS ET PRODUITS DIFFUSES PAR MMS. UN FETCH DYNAMIQUE DEVRAIT
GENERER UN EPISODE DE HOULE CYCLONIQUE TRES SIGNIFICATIF ACCOMPAGNE
PAR UNE MONTEE ANORMALE DEU NIVEAU DE LA MER POUVANT ATTEINDRE
JUSQU'A 2M DANS CERTAINS SECTEURS EXPOSES.=

>

2019-02-09 07:09

WTIO30 FMEE 090641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+, CI=6.0+

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CYCLONE GELENA HEADING TOWARDS RODRIGUES !

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF GELENA HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE WITH A WARMING EYE AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED AT 105 KT BASED ON LATEST DVORAK ANALYSIS.
SHORTLY BEFORE 06 UTC, THE RAW DT NUMBERS ARE NOW AT 6.5.

GELENA IS NOW ACCELERATING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND GELENA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO RACE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS
TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE STILL STEERING THE
CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE TRACK AND
PROVIDE GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY THERE IS A
LOT MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. THE CURRENT TRACK LIES MORE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AT
THE INITIAL STAGE AND THEN IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CURRENT RAPID MOTION OF GELENA ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL
EFFECTS OF OF AN INCREASE OF THE SHEAR AT PRESENT TIME. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TREND, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY BEFORE A
WEAKENING TREND THAT SHOULD START LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

ON THIS TRACK, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE OR OVER
RODRIGUES ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS A VERY
SERIOUS SITUATION AND THE INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS AND
PRODUCTS FROM MMS. DYNAMICAL FETCH SHOULD TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS SEA LEVEL RISING THAT COULD REACH 2 METERS
OVER SOME EXPOSED AREAS.=

>

2019-02-09 06:40

WTIO22 FMEE 090639 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
19.4 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-09 06:37

WTIO22 FMEE 090639
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
19.4 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-09 06:31

WTIO22 FMEE 090626 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
19.4 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-09 06:29

WTIO22 FMEE 090626
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
19.4 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-09 02:52

WTXS32 PGTW 090300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.3S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-09 02:46

WTXS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.3S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.6S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.7S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.2S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.8S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.0S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 57.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND A SMALL, OBLONG
EYE. A 082246Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A MIROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH SPIRAL BANDING. OVERALL, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5 (102 KNOTS) TO 6.0 (115 KNOTS). DESPITE
SOME PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
SST VALUES (29-30C). THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU
12. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 105NM AT
TAU 72. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND ORIENTATION.
THESE DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 01:20

WTIO31 FMEE 090048 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 57.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5-, CI=6.0.

>

2019-02-09 01:20

WTIO30 FMEE 090048 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 57.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5-, CI=6.0.

>

2019-02-09 01:18

WTIO31 FMEE 090048
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 57.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5-, CI=6.0.

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, APRES AVOIR COMPLETE UN ERC, LE
SYSTEME A REPRIS UN FORT TAUX D'INTENSIFICATION BENEFICIANT ENCORE
D'UN TRES BON ENVIRONNEMENT EN ALTITDUE AVEC DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION
ET PRESENTANT PENDANT QUELQUES HEURES UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE TRES
FROIDE AVEC UN PETIT OEIL DEJA TILTE. MAIS LE SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR
ATTEINT SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE, LA CONVECTION SEMBLE COMMENCER A
REAGIR AU FORT COURANT DE NORD-OUEST QUI S'ETABLI EN ALTITUDE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE VERS LE SUD-EST SE MAINTIENT. LE DEPLACEMENT
DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS DEFINISSENT LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA ET PERMETTENT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE POUR LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN JOURNEE,SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE CIRCULANT DEPUIS L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST TOUT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT.

UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST VA GRADUELLEMENT SE RENFORCER EN
ALTITUDE ET EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI GELENA DEVRAIT ALORS POURSUIVRE UNE
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME DEVANT
LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS. LE BLOCAGE PAR LA DORSALE AU SUD VA RALENTIR LE
SYSTEME A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET GELENA VERRA ALORS SON INTENSITE
FAIBLIR PLUS NOTABLEMENT, AVANT DE SE COMBLER A ECHEANCE DE MARDI.

GELENA DEVRAIT PASSER AU PLUS PRES DE MAURICE A PRES DE 250KM DANS LE
NORD-EST EN FIN DE MATINEE, ET MENACER PLUS PRECISEMENT L'ILE
RODRIGUES, AVEC UN PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES PREVU DANS LA NUIT DE SAMEDI
A UNE DISTANCE QUI RESTE A PRECISER MAIS QUI DEVRAIT METTRE L'ILE
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DIRECTE DU METEOR.
LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES PROCHAINS
BULLETINS. LE PHENOMENE DE HOULE CYCLONIQUE, GENEREE PAR GELENA MAIS
AUSSI PAR FUNANI CIRCULANT A DISTANCE PLUS LOINTAINE, EST AUSSI A
PRENDRE EN COMPTE POUR L'ENSEMBLE DES ILES DE LA ZONE.=

>

2019-02-09 01:18

WTIO30 FMEE 090048
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 57.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5-, CI=6.0.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AFTER HAVING COMPLETED AN ERC, THE SYSTEM HAS
TAKEN A HIGH RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH THE BENEFIT OF THE TWO
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, SHOWING FOR SOME HOURS A DEEP CONVECTION VERY COLD
WITH A SMALL EYE YET TILTED. BUT THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY, CONVECTION SEEMS BEGIN TO REACT TO THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGING TO ESTABLISH.

THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES. THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID
LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE NOW
STEERING THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE
TRACK AND PROVIDE GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING FROM THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RESUME AN EASTWARD TRACK WHILE WEAKENING.

A WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALOFT. GELENA SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD
ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT
FIRST. THE BLOCKAGE BY THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM
DOWN FROM SUNDAY AND GELENA WILL THEN SEE ITS INTENSITY WEAKEN MORE
NOTICEABLY, BEFORE FILLING UP ON TUESDAY.

ON THIS TRACK, GELENA SHOULD PASS AT A DISTANCE ABOUT 250KM IN THE
NORTHEAST OF THE MAURITIUS ISLAND AT THE END OF THE MORNING, AND
STHREATEN MORE PRECISELY RODRIGUES ISLAND, AT A DISTANCE WHICH HAVE
TO BE DEFINE LATER, DURING THE NIGHT OF SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, BUT WHICH
MAY PUT THE ISLAND UNDER THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE METEOR.
THE INHABITANTS OF THESES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS. THE CYCLONIC SWELL,
GENERATED BY GELENA BUT ALSO BY FUNANI TRAVELLING FURTHER AWAY, IS
ALSO TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ISLANDS IN THE AREA.=

>

2019-02-09 00:44

WTIO22 FMEE 090015 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 57.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-09 00:14

WTIO22 FMEE 090015
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 57.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-08 21:11

WTXS32 PGTW 082100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 56.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 56.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.9S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 21:04

WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 56.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 56.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.9S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.4S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.6S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.4S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.1S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.3S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 56.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND FORMATIVE SMALL
EYE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.5 (PGTW, FMEE)
TO 6.0 (KNES); HOWEVER, AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW FIX USING THE 081900Z EIR
IMAGE DEPICTS A SHORT-LIVED 13NM EYE AND YIELDS A 6.0 (115 KNOTS).
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS TO REFLECT
THIS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TREND. DESPITE SOME PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SST VALUES (29-30C).
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU 12. TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 100NM AT TAU 72. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND ORIENTATION. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH
MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 19:30

WTIO22 FMEE 081930 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
18.2 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-08 19:29

WTIO31 FMEE 081929 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-02-08 19:29

WTIO30 FMEE 081929 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-02-08 19:27

WTIO22 FMEE 081930
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
18.2 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
19.7 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-08 19:26

WTIO31 FMEE 081929
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES (SSMI 1135Z,
GMP 1241Z, SSMIS 1457Z) SUGGERENT UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL
EN COURT, QUI MODULE ACTUELLEMENT L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. L'INTENSITE
DE GELENA A DONC D'ORES ET DEJA ETE BAISSE DE 5KT SANS ATTENDRE LA
BAISSE DI CI.
LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE PETITE TAILLE S'EST MAINTENUE EN
PRESENTANT DES FAIBLESSES AU SEIN DE LA CONVECTION, AVEC UNE
TEMPERATURE PLUS FROIDE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES.

LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE VERS LE SUD-EST SE MAINTIENT. LE DEPLACEMENT
DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS DEFINISSENT LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA ET PERMETTENT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE POUR LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN JOURNEE,SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE CIRCULANT DEPUIS L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST TOUT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT.

LES DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE DE MERCATOR-OCEAN MONTRENT QUE GELENA
SE RETROUVE A NOUVEAU SUR DES EAUX A FORT CONTENU ENERGETIQUE.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS EN ALTITUDE
DEFINISSENT DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES TOUT A FAIT FAVORABLES.
GELENA DEVRAIT DONC A L'ISSUE DE SON ERC REPRENDRE UN BON RITHME
D'INTENSIFICATION QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE AVEC UN COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE PERMETTANT DES CHANGEMENTS
D'INTENSITE RAPIDES.

UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT SE RENFORCER EN
ALTITUDE ET EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI GELENA DEVRAIT ALORS DEBUTER UNE
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME DEVANT
LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS. LE BLOCAGE PAR LA DORSALE AU SUD VA RALENTIR LE
SYSTEME A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET GELENA VERRA ALORS SON INTENSITE
FAIBLIR PLUS NOTABLEMENT, AVANT DE SE COMBLER A ECHEANCE DE MARDI.



A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SAMEDI, GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES ET L'ILE MAURICE, AVEC UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PASSANT ENTRE LES DEUX ILES. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A
SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES PROCHAINS BULLETINS. LE PHENOMENE DE HOULE
CYCLONIQUE, GENEREE PAR GELENA MAIS AUSSI PAR FUNANI CIRCULANT A
DISTANCE PLUS LOINTAINE, EST AUSSI A PRENDRE EN COMPTE POUR
L'ENSEMBLE DES ILES DE LA ZONE.=

>

2019-02-08 19:26

WTIO30 FMEE 081929
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, MICRO WAVES DATA (SSMI 1135Z, GMP 1241Z,
SSMIS 1457Z) SUGGEST THAT AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS MODULING
GELNA'S INTENSITY.GELENA'S INTENSITY HAS THUS ALREADY BEEN DECREASED
OF 5KT WITHOUT WAITING FOR THE DECREASE IN CI.
THE SMALL EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE
CONVECTION, WITH A COLDER EYE IN THE LAST MOMENTS.

THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES. THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID
LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE NOW
STEERING THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE
TRACK AND PROVIDE GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING FROM THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RESUME AN EASTWARD TRACK WHILE WEAKENING.

DATA FROM THE OCEANIC MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN SHOW THAT GELENA IS
FOUND AGAIN ON WATERS WITH A HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.

ON THIS TRACK, THE TWO UPPER LEVEL EVACUATION OUTFLOW CHANNELS
DEFINE VERY FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. SO ONCE ITS ERC
FINISHED, GELENA SHOULD TAKE AGAIN A GOOD RATE OF INTENSIFICATION,
LEADING TO THE THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A SMALL
SIZE OF THE INNER CORE STILL ALLOWS RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE
INTENSITY.

A WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALOFT. GELENA SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD
ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT
FIRST. THE BLOCKAGE BY THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM
DOWN FROM SUNDAY AND GELENA WILL THEN SEE ITS INTENSITY WEAKEN MORE
NOTICEABLY, BEFORE FILLING UP ON TUESDAY.

FROM TOMORROW SATURDAY, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO
RODRIGUES AND MAURITIUS ISLAND, WITH A TRACK PASSING BETWEEN THE TWO
ISLANDS. THE INHABITANTS OF THESES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS. THE
CYCLONIC SWELL, GENERATED BY GELENA BUT ALSO BY FUNANI TRAVELLING
FURTHER AWAY, IS ALSO TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ISLANDS IN
THE AREA.=

>

2019-02-08 19:13

WTIO31 FMEE 081833 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-02-08 19:13

WTIO30 FMEE 081833 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-02-08 19:10

WTIO31 FMEE 081833
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES (SSMI 1135Z,
GMP 1241Z, SSMIS 1457Z) SUGGERENT UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL
EN COURT, QUI MODULE ACTUELLEMENT L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. L'INTENSITE
DE GELENA A DONC D'ORES ET DEJA ETE BAISSE DE 5KT SANS ATTENDRE LA
BAISSE DI CI.
LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE PETITE TAILLE S'EST MAINTENUE EN
PRESENTANT DES FAIBLESSES AU SEIN DE LA CONVECTION, AVEC UNE
TEMPERATURE PLUS FROIDE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES.

LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE VERS LE SUD-EST SE MAINTIENT. LE DEPLACEMENT
DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS DEFINISSENT LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA ET PERMETTENT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE POUR LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN JOURNEE,SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE CIRCULANT DEPUIS L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST TOUT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT.

LES DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE DE MERCATOR-OCEAN MONTRENT QUE GELENA
SE RETROUVE A NOUVEAU SUR DES EAUX A FORT CONTENU ENERGETIQUE.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS EN ALTITUDE
DEFINISSENT DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES TOUT A FAIT FAVORABLES.
GELENA DEVRAIT DONC A L'ISSUE DE SON ERC REPRENDRE UN BON RITHME
D'INTENSIFICATION QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE AVEC UN COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE PERMETTANT DES CHANGEMENTS
D'INTENSITE RAPIDES.

UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT SE RENFORCER EN
ALTITUDE ET EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI GELENA DEVRAIT ALORS DEBUTER UNE
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME DEVANT
LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS. LE BLOCAGE PAR LA DORSALE AU SUD VA RALENTIR LE
SYSTEME A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET GELENA VERRA ALORS SON INTENSITE
FAIBLIR PLUS NOTABLEMENT, AVANT DE SE COMBLER A ECHEANCE DE MARDI.



A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SAMEDI, GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES ET L'ILE MAURICE, AVEC UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PASSANT ENTRE LES DEUX ILES. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A
SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES PROCHAINS BULLETINS. LE PHENOMENE DE HOULE
CYCLONIQUE, GENEREE PAR GELENA MAIS AUSSI PAR FUNANI CIRCULANT A
DISTANCE PLUS LOINTAINE, EST AUSSI A PRENDRE EN COMPTE POUR
L'ENSEMBLE DES ILES DE LA ZONE.=

>

2019-02-08 19:10

WTIO30 FMEE 081833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, MICRO WAVES DATA (SSMI 1135Z, GMP 1241Z,
SSMIS 1457Z) SUGGEST THAT AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS MODULING
GELNA'S INTENSITY.GELENA'S INTENSITY HAS THUS ALREADY BEEN DECREASED
OF 5KT WITHOUT WAITING FOR THE DECREASE IN CI.
THE SMALL EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE
CONVECTION, WITH A COLDER EYE IN THE LAST MOMENTS.

THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES. THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID
LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE NOW
STEERING THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE
TRACK AND PROVIDE GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING FROM THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RESUME AN EASTWARD TRACK WHILE WEAKENING.

DATA FROM THE OCEANIC MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN SHOW THAT GELENA IS
FOUND AGAIN ON WATERS WITH A HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.

ON THIS TRACK, THE TWO UPPER LEVEL EVACUATION OUTFLOW CHANNELS
DEFINE VERY FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. SO ONCE ITS ERC
FINISHED, GELENA SHOULD TAKE AGAIN A GOOD RATE OF INTENSIFICATION,
LEADING TO THE THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A SMALL
SIZE OF THE INNER CORE STILL ALLOWS RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE
INTENSITY.

A WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALOFT. GELENA SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD
ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT
FIRST. THE BLOCKAGE BY THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM
DOWN FROM SUNDAY AND GELENA WILL THEN SEE ITS INTENSITY WEAKEN MORE
NOTICEABLY, BEFORE FILLING UP ON TUESDAY.

FROM TOMORROW SATURDAY, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO
RODRIGUES AND MAURITIUS ISLAND, WITH A TRACK PASSING BETWEEN THE TWO
ISLANDS. THE INHABITANTS OF THESES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS. THE
CYCLONIC SWELL, GENERATED BY GELENA BUT ALSO BY FUNANI TRAVELLING
FURTHER AWAY, IS ALSO TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ISLANDS IN
THE AREA.=

>

2019-02-08 18:27

WTIO22 FMEE 081827 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
18.2 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-08 18:24

WTIO22 FMEE 081827
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
18.2 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
19.7 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-08 15:02

WTXS32 PGTW 081500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.4S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 14:54

WTXS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.4S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.0S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.3S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.4S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.4S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.2S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.4S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 55.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
081241Z 36 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE
FEATURE. THE 081241Z 36 GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A CYAN
RING, WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. A
081004Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
INDICATING THAT TC 13S MAY BE UNDER GOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY HAS TEMPORARILY LEVELED OFF BUT TC
13S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 103 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 13S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 13S IS ALSO EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 13S
IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 96. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ALLOW TC 13S TO INTENSIFY,
REACHING A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 13S WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY TAU 96, THE STR WILL WEAKEN
AND ALLOW TC 13S TO TRACK MORE EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD TRACK.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT TAU 120 AS ECMWF DISSIPATES TC 13S WHILE GFS
AND NAVGEM SHOW THAT TC 13S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. DESPITE
THE DIFFERENCES AT TAU 120, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 13:30

WTIO22 FMEE 081323 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 55.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-08 13:27

WTIO22 FMEE 081323
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 55.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
19.4 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-08 13:16

WTIO22 FMEE 081313 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 55.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-08 13:13

WTIO22 FMEE 081313
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 55.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
19.4 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-08 12:49

WTIO31 FMEE 081224 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 55.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-02-08 12:49

WTIO30 FMEE 081224 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 55.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-02-08 12:47

WTIO31 FMEE 081131 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-02-08 12:47

WTIO30 FMEE 081131 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-02-08 12:46

WTIO31 FMEE 081224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 55.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE PETITE
TAILLE S'EST MAINTENUE EN PRESENTANT DES FAIBLESSES AU SEIN DE LA
CONVECTION, AVEC UN ASPECT PLUS DECHIQUETE SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS.
L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 85KT. A
0830UTC, LE CENTRE DE GELENA EST PASSE A PRES DE 55KM DE L'ILOT DE
TROMELIN, OU A ETE MESUREE UNE PRESSION MINIMALE DE 991HPA ET DES
VENTS MOYENS MAXIMAUX DE 55KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE VERS LE SUD-EST SE MAINTIENT. CEPENDANT UNE
LEGERE DIFFERENCE DANS LA CHRONOLOGIE DU PASSAGE DU TALWEG INDUIT UN
LEGER DECALAGE VERS MAURICE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE. LE DEPLACEMENT
DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS DEFINISSENT LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA ET PERMETTENT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE POUR LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS. A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN JOURNEE, LA TRAJECTOIRE EST UN
PEU PLUS INCERTAINE DU FAIT DU BLOCAGE DE GELENA PAR LA MISE EN PLACE
AU SUD D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE CIRCULANT DEPUIS L'OUEST.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST TOUT EN
S'AFFAIBLISSANT.

LES DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE DE MERCATOR-OCEAN MONTRENT QUE GELENA
SE RETROUVE A NOUVEAU SUR DES EAUX A FORT CONTENU ENERGETIQUE GRACE A
SON DEPLACEMENT RECENT. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATIONS EN ALTITUDE DEFINISSENT DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES
TOUT A FAIT FAVORABLES POUR UNE HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION
L'AMENANT AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC UN COEUR DE
PETITE TAILLE PERMETTANT DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES. UNE
CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT SE RENFORCER EN
ALTITUDE ET EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI GELENA DEVRAIT ALORS DEBUTER UNE
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME DEVANT
LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS. LE BLOCAGE PAR LA DORSALE AU SUD VA RALENTIR LE
SYSTEME A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET GELENA VERRA ALORS SON INTENSITE
FAIBLIR PLUS NOTABLEMENT, AVANT DE SE COMBLER A ECHEANCE DE MARDI.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SAMEDI, GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES ET L'ILE MAURICE, AVEC UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PASSANT ENTRE LES DEUX ILES. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A
SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES PROCHAINS BULLETINS. LE PHENOMENE DE HOULE
CYCLONIQUE, GENEREE PAR GELENA MAIS AUSSI PAR FUNANI CIRCULANT A
DISTANCE PLUS LOINTAINE, EST AUSSI A PRENDRE EN COMPTE POUR
L'ENSEMBLE DES ILES DE LA ZONE.=

>

2019-02-08 12:46

WTIO30 FMEE 081224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 55.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SMALL EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH
WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE CONVECTION, WITH A MORE DECAYING APPEARANCE IN
THE LAST MOMENTS. DVORAK'S ANALYSIS ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE WINDS IN
THE ORDER OF 85KT. AT 0830UTC, THE GELENA CENTRE PASSED ALMOST 55KM
FROM THE TROMELIN ISLAND, WHERE A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991HPA AND
MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS OF 55KT WERE MEASURED.

THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH INDUCES A
SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARDS MAURITIUS OF THE FORECASTED TRACK. THE DEEP
UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH
A STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE NOW
STEERING THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE
TRACK AND PROVIDE GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY,
THE TRACK IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BLOCKING OF GELENA BY
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING FROM THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RESUME AN EASTWARD TRACK WHILE WEAKENING.

DATA FROM THE OCEANIC MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN SHOW THAT GELENA IS
FOUND AGAIN ON WATERS WITH A HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT THANKS TO ITS
RECENT DISPLACEMENT. ON THIS TRACK, THE TWO UPPER LEVEL EVACUATION
OUTFLOW CHANNELS DEFINE VERY FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR A
FURTHER INCREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO THE
THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A SMALL SIZE OF THE
INNER CORE STILL ALLOWS RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE INTENSITY. A WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALOFT. GELENA SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD ALLOW IT
TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT FIRST. THE
BLOCKAGE BY THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM
SUNDAY AND GELENA WILL THEN SEE ITS INTENSITY WEAKEN MORE NOTICEABLY,
BEFORE FILLING UP ON TUESDAY.

FROM TOMORROW SATURDAY, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO
RODRIGUES AND MAURITIUS ISLAND, WITH A TRACK PASSING BETWEEN THE TWO
ISLANDS. THE INHABITANTS OF THESES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS. THE
CYCLONIC SWELL, GENERATED BY GELENA BUT ALSO BY FUNANI TRAVELLING
FURTHER AWAY, IS ALSO TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ISLANDS IN
THE AREA.=

>

2019-02-08 12:07

WTIO31 FMEE 081131
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

L'ENROULEMENT DE LA BANDE INCURVEE S'EST POURSUIVIE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES, EVOLUANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN STRUCTURE EN OEIL, AVEC
UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA CONVECTION DANS LE QUADRAN NORD-OUEST DE GELENA.
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION EN OEIL PEUT ETRE FAITE A 4.5+
VOIRE 5.0-. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0506UTC MESURE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE 50
KT, BIEN SOUS ESTIMES A CAUSE DE SA RESOLUTION. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
PERMET UNE ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 75KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE VERS LE SUD-EST SE MAINTIENT. CEPENDANT UNE
LEGERE DIFFERENCE DANS LA CHRONOLOGIE DU PASSAGE DU TALWEG INDUIT UN
LEGER DECALAGE VERS MAURICE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE. LE DEPLACEMENT
DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS DEFINISSENT LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA ET PERMETTENT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE POUR LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS. A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN JOURNEE, LA TRAJECTOIRE EST UN
PEU PLUS INCERTAINE DU FAIT DU BLOCAGE DE GELENA PAR LA MISE EN PLACE
AU SUD D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE CIRCULANT DEPUIS L'OUEST.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST TOUT EN
S'AFFAIBLISSANT.

LES DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE DE MERCATOR-OCEAN MONTRENT QUE GELENA
SE RETROUVE A NOUVEAU SUR DES EAUX A FORT CONTENU ENERGETIQUE GRACE A
SON DEPLACEMENT RECENT. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATIONS EN ALTITUDE DEFINISSENT DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES
TOUT A FAIT FAVORABLES POUR UNE HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION
L'AMENANT AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC UN COEUR DE
PETITE TAILLE PERMETTANT DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES. UNE
CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT SE RENFORCER EN
ALTITUDE ET EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI GELENA DEVRAIT ALORS DEBUTER UNE
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME DEVANT
LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS. LE BLOCAGE PAR LA DORSALE AU SUD VA RALENTIR LE
SYSTEME A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET GELENA VERRA ALORS SON INTENSITE
FAIBLIR PLUS NOTABLEMENT, AVANT DE SE COMBLER A ECHEANCE DE MARDI.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SAMEDI, GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES ET L'ILE MAURICE, AVEC UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PASSANT ENTRE LES DEUX ILES. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A
SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES PROCHAINS BULLETINS. LE PHENOMENE DE HOULE
CYCLONIQUE, GENEREE PAR GELENA MAIS AUSSI PAR FUNANI CIRCULANT A
DISTANCE PLUS LOINTAINE, EST AUSSI A PRENDRE EN COMPTE POUR
L'ENSEMBLE DES ILES DE LA ZONE.=

>

2019-02-08 12:07

WTIO30 FMEE 081131
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

THE CURVING OF THE INCURVED BAND CONTINUED IN THE LAST HOURS,
GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN EYE PATTERN, WITH A WEAKNESS OF CONVECTION
IN THE GELENA'S NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EYE PATTERN
CAN BE DONE AT 4.5+ OR EVEN 5.0-. THE 0506UTC ASCAT SWATH MEASURES
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT, WELL UNDERESTIMATED BECAUSE OF ITS
RESOLUTION. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS AN ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 75KT.

THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH INDUCES A
SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARDS MAURITIUS OF THE FORECASTED TRACK. THE DEEP
UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH
A STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE NOW
STEERING THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE
TRACK AND PROVIDE GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY,
THE TRACK IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BLOCKING OF GELENA BY
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING FROM THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RESUME AN EASTWARD TRACK WHILE WEAKENING.

DATA FROM THE OCEANIC MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN SHOW THAT GELENA IS
FOUND AGAIN ON WATERS WITH A HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT THANKS TO ITS
RECENT DISPLACEMENT. ON THIS TRACK, THE TWO UPPER LEVEL EVACUATION
OUTFLOW CHANNELS DEFINE VERY FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR A
FURTHER INCREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO THE
THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A SMALL SIZE OF THE
INNER CORE STILL ALLOWS RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE INTENSITY. A WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALOFT. GELENA SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD ALLOW IT
TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT FIRST. THE
BLOCKAGE BY THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM
SUNDAY AND GELENA WILL THEN SEE ITS INTENSITY WEAKEN MORE NOTICEABLY,
BEFORE FILLING UP ON TUESDAY.

FROM TOMORROW SATURDAY, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO
RODRIGUES AND MAURITIUS ISLAND, WITH A TRACK PASSING BETWEEN THE TWO
ISLANDS. THE INHABITANTS OF THESES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS. THE
CYCLONIC SWELL, GENERATED BY GELENA BUT ALSO BY FUNANI TRAVELLING
FURTHER AWAY, IS ALSO TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ISLANDS IN
THE AREA.=

>

2019-02-08 09:22

WTXS32 PGTW 080900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 54.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 54.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.5S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 09:08

WTXS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 54.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 54.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.5S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.2S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.1S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.4S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.7S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.0S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED, 20 NM WIDE, EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 080600Z METEOSAT 8 VISIBLE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TC 13S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC 13S IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 13S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE
STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 96.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
ALLOW TC 13S TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 140
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 13S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY TAU 96, THE STR WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW TC 13S
TO TRACK MORE EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 07:43

WTIO31 FMEE 080742 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

>

2019-02-08 07:43

WTIO30 FMEE 080742 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

>

2019-02-08 07:40

WTIO31 FMEE 080742
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

L'ENROULEMENT DE LA BANDE INCURVEE S'EST POURSUIVIE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES, EVOLUANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN STRUCTURE EN OEIL, AVEC
UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA CONVECTION DANS LE QUADRAN NORD-OUEST DE GELENA.
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION EN OEIL PEUT ETRE FAITE A 4.5+
VOIRE 5.0-. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0506UTC MESURE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE 50
KT, BIEN SOUS ESTIMES A CAUSE DE SA RESOLUTION. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
PERMET UNE ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 75KT.

L'ORIENTATION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EST MAINTENANT
AVEREE. LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA EST PILOTE PAR UN PROFOND TALWEG DE
HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE EN CONSTRUCTION AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX
CENTRES D'ACTIONS DEFINISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA ET PERMETTENT
UNE FAIBLE DISPERSION DES ENSEMBLES DISPONIBLES POUR LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS. A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN JOURNEE, LA TRAJECTOIRE EST UN
PEU PLUS INCERTAINE DU FAIT DU BLOCAGE DE GELENA PAR LA MISE EN PLACE
AU SUD D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE CIRCULANT DEPUIS L'OUEST.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST TOUT EN
S'AFFAIBLISSANT.

LES DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE DE MERCATOR-OCEAN MONTRENT QUE GELENA
SE RETROUVE A NOUVEAU SUR DES EAUX A FORT CONTENU ENERGETIQUE GRACE A
SON DEPLACEMENT RECENT. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATIONS, UN COTE EQUATORIAL ET UN COTE POLAIRE, DEFINISSENT DES
CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES TOUT A FAIT FAVORABLES POUR UNE NOUVELLE
HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION. LE SYSTEME PRESENTE TOUJOURS UN
COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE PERMETTANT DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE
RAPIDES. DES AUJOURD'HUI, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT
GRADUELLEMENT SE RENFORCER EN ALTITUDE. GELENA DEVRAIT ALORS DEBUTER
UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI OU DURANT LA
NUIT SUIVANTE, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME DEVANT LUI PERMETTRE
DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. CECI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT ET L'INTENSITE DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN PEU PLUS INCERTAIN LAISSANT UNE POSSIBILITE D'UN
SYSTEME UN PEU PLUS FAIBLE POUR LA JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SAMEDI, GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, UN IMPACT DIRECT N'ETANT PAS
EXCLUS. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
PROCHAINS BULLETINS. MEME S'ILS PARAISSENT MOINS EXPOSES, LES
HABITANTS DE L'ILE MAURICE SONT AUSSI INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE
CE SYSTEME. LE PHENOMENE DE HOULE CYCLONIQUE, GENEREE PAR GELENA MAIS
AUSSI PAR FUNANI CIRCULANT A DISTANCE PLUS LOINTAINE, EST AUSSI A
PRENDRE EN COMPTE POUR L'ENSEMBLE DES ILES DE LA ZONE.=

>

2019-02-08 07:40

WTIO30 FMEE 080742
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

THE CURVING OF THE INCURVED BAND CONTINUED IN THE LAST HOURS,
GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN EYE PATTERN, WITH A WEAKNESS OF CONVECTION
IN THE GELENA'S NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EYE PATTERN
CAN BE DONE AT 4.5+ OR EVEN 5.0-. THE 0506UTC ASCAT SWATH MEASURES
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT, WELL UNDERESTIMATED BECAUSE OF ITS
RESOLUTION. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS AN ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 75KT.

THE TRACK ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTHEAST IS NOW CONFIRMED. A DEEP
UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH
A STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE NOW
STEERING THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE
TRACK AND ALLOW A RATHER WEAK DISPERSION IN THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLES
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY TO MONDAY, THE TRACK IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BLOCKING OF GELENA BY THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
RESUME AN EASTWARD TRACK WHILE WEAKENING.

DATA FROM THE OCEANIC MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN SHOW THAT GELENA IS
FOUND AGAIN ON WATERS WITH A HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT THANKS TO ITS
RECENT DISPLACEMENT. ON THIS TRAJECTORY, THE TWO EVACUATION OUTFLOW
CHANNELS, AN EQUATORIAL COAST AND A POLAR COAST, DEFINE VERY
FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE STILL ALLOWS
RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE INTENSITY. TODAY, A WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ALOFT. GELENA SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN SATURDAY
OR THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD
ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT
FIRST, MAKING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEGINNING AND THE INTENSITY OF
THE WEAKENING A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN LEAVING A POSSIBILITY OF A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.

FROM TOMORROW SATURDAY, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO
RODRIGUES ISLAND, A DIRECT IMPACT STILL BEING POSSIBLE. THE
INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLAND ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS. INHABITANTS OF
MAURITIUS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LOWER FOR THIS ISLAND. THE CYCLONIC SWELL,
GENERATED BY GELENA BUT ALSO BY FUNANI TRAVELLING FURTHER AWAY, IS
ALSO TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ISLANDS IN THE AREA.=

>

2019-02-08 07:04

WTIO31 FMEE 080657 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

>

2019-02-08 07:04

WTIO30 FMEE 080657 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

>

2019-02-08 07:01

WTIO31 FMEE 080657
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

L'ENROULEMENT DE LA BANDE INCURVEE S'EST POURSUIVIE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES, EVOLUANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN STRUCTURE EN OEIL, AVEC
UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA CONVECTION DANS LE QUADRAN NORD-OUEST DE GELENA.
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION EN OEIL PEUT ETRE FAITE A 4.5+
VOIRE 5.0-. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0506UTC MESURE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE 50
KT, BIEN SOUS ESTIMES A CAUSE DE SA RESOLUTION. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
PERMET UNE ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 70KT.

L'ORIENTATION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EST MAINTENANT
AVEREE. LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA EST PILOTE PAR UN PROFOND TALWEG DE
HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE EN CONSTRUCTION AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX
CENTRES D'ACTIONS DEFINISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GELENA ET PERMETTENT
UNE FAIBLE DISPERSION DES ENSEMBLES DISPONIBLES POUR LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS. A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN JOURNEE, LA TRAJECTOIRE EST UN
PEU PLUS INCERTAINE DU FAIT DU BLOCAGE DE GELENA PAR LA MISE EN PLACE
AU SUD D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE CIRCULANT DEPUIS L'OUEST.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST TOUT EN
S'AFFAIBLISSANT.

LES DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE DE MERCATOR-OCEAN MONTRENT QUE GELENA
SE RETROUVE A NOUVEAU SUR DES EAUX A FORT CONTENU ENERGETIQUE GRACE A
SON DEPLACEMENT RECENT. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATIONS, UN COTE EQUATORIAL ET UN COTE POLAIRE, DEFINISSENT DES
CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES TOUT A FAIT FAVORABLES POUR UNE NOUVELLE
HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION. LE SYSTEME PRESENTE TOUJOURS UN
COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE PERMETTANT DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE
RAPIDES. DES AUJOURD'HUI, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT
GRADUELLEMENT SE RENFORCER EN ALTITUDE. GELENA DEVRAIT ALORS DEBUTER
UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI OU DURANT LA
NUIT SUIVANTE, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME DEVANT LUI PERMETTRE
DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. CECI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT ET L'INTENSITE DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN PEU PLUS INCERTAIN LAISSANT UNE POSSIBILITE D'UN
SYSTEME UN PEU PLUS FAIBLE POUR LA JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SAMEDI, GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, UN IMPACT DIRECT N'ETANT PAS
EXCLUS. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
PROCHAINS BULLETINS. MEME S'ILS PARAISSENT MOINS EXPOSES, LES
HABITANTS DE L'ILE MAURICE SONT AUSSI INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE
CE SYSTEME. LE PHENOMENE DE HOULE CYCLONIQUE, GENEREE PAR GELENA MAIS
AUSSI PAR FUNANI CIRCULANT A DISTANCE PLUS LOINTAINE, EST AUSSI A
PRENDRE EN COMPTE POUR L'ENSEMBLE DES ILES DE LA ZONE.=

>

2019-02-08 07:01

WTIO30 FMEE 080657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

THE CURVING OF THE INCURVED BAND CONTINUED IN THE LAST HOURS,
GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN EYE PATTERN, WITH A WEAKNESS OF CONVECTION
IN THE GELENA'S NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EYE PATTERN
CAN BE DONE AT 4.5+ OR EVEN 5.0-. THE 0506UTC ASCAT SWATH MEASURES
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT, WELL UNDERESTIMATED BECAUSE OF ITS
RESOLUTION. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS AN ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 70KT.

THE TRACK ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTHEAST IS NOW CONFIRMED. A DEEP
UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH
A STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE NOW
STEERING THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE
TRACK AND ALLOW A RATHER WEAK DISPERSION IN THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLES
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY TO MONDAY, THE TRACK IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BLOCKING OF GELENA BY THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
RESUME AN EASTWARD TRACK WHILE WEAKENING.

DATA FROM THE OCEANIC MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN SHOW THAT GELENA IS
FOUND AGAIN ON WATERS WITH A HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT THANKS TO ITS
RECENT DISPLACEMENT. ON THIS TRAJECTORY, THE TWO EVACUATION OUTFLOW
CHANNELS, AN EQUATORIAL COAST AND A POLAR COAST, DEFINE VERY
FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE STILL ALLOWS
RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE INTENSITY. TODAY, A WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ALOFT. GELENA SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN SATURDAY
OR THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD
ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT
FIRST, MAKING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEGINNING AND THE INTENSITY OF
THE WEAKENING A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN LEAVING A POSSIBILITY OF A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.

FROM TOMORROW SATURDAY, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO
RODRIGUES ISLAND, A DIRECT IMPACT STILL BEING POSSIBLE. THE
INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLAND ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS. INHABITANTS OF
MAURITIUS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LOWER FOR THIS ISLAND. THE CYCLONIC SWELL,
GENERATED BY GELENA BUT ALSO BY FUNANI TRAVELLING FURTHER AWAY, IS
ALSO TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ISLANDS IN THE AREA.=

>

2019-02-08 03:08

WTXS32 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.9S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 03:03

WTXS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.9S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.6S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.2S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.6S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.0S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.8S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY DEPICTS
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, AS AN EARLIER IR EYE FILLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE
THE POOR IR PRESENTATION, A 072150Z GCOM COLOR 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY A CYAN RING, SUGGESTIVE
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS), AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE
CURRENT DEGRADATION OF THE CORE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20
KNOTS AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH, WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A VERY FAVORABLE 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GELENA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, FOLLOWING BEHIND TC 12S. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TRACK MOTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, AT THE EXTENDED 96 TO 120
HOUR RANGE FORWARD TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE STEERING
RIDGE RECEDES EQUATORWARD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION TO THE
120 TO 130 KNOT RANGE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PERSISTENTLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONSTRAINED, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. GELENA
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z, AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 00:45

WTIO31 FMEE 080027 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 54.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

>

2019-02-08 00:45

WTIO30 FMEE 080027 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 54.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

>

2019-02-08 00:45

WTIO22 FMEE 080014 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 54.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
15.8 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-08 00:40

WTIO31 FMEE 080027
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 54.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 13/02/2019 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, UNE BANDE DE CONVECTION INTENSE
S'EST ENROULEE AUTOUR DE LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL DECHIQUETE. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDE SSMI DE 2301Z MONTRE CETTE PUISSANTE BANDE INCURVEE EN
TRAIN DE RECONSTITUER LA STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE INTERNE. CEPENDANT, LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK PLAFONNENT POUR LE MOMENT, EN ACCORD AVEC LES
AUTRES DONNEES SUJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

LE SYSTEME ACCELERE DESORMAIS VERS LE SUD-EST. LE DEPLACEMENT DE
GELENA EST PILOTE PAR UN PROFOND THALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE EN CONSTRUCTION AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS
CONTRAIGNENT LA TRAJECTOIRE ET PERMETTENT UNE FAIBLE DISPERSION DES
ENSEMBLES DISPONIBLES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES AUGMENTE ALORS QUE GELENA NE DEVRAIT PAS POUVOIR S'EVACUER
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN RESTANT BLOQUEE SUR LA FACE NORD D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE CIRCULANT DEPUIS L'OUEST.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE DES EAUX A PLUS FORT
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE ET LES DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS, UN COTE
EQUATORIAL ET UN COTE POLAIRE, DEVRAIENT LUI PERMETTRE D'EN TIRER
PROFIT. UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION EST DONC
ATTENDUE, MEME SI LES INDICATEURS STATISTICO-DYNAMIQUES
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE SONT EN NETTE BAISSE. LE SYSTEME PRESENTE
TOUJOURS UN COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE PERMETTANT DES CHANGEMENTS
D'INTENSITE RAPIDES. DES AUJOURD'HUI, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST
DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT SE RENFORCER EN ALTITUDE. GELENA DEVRAIT ALORS
DEBUTER UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI OU
DURANT LA NUIT SUIVANTE. CEPENDANT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME
POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX
D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, CE QUI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN PEU PLUS INCERTAIN QUE LA MOYENNE.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SAMEDI, GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, UN IMPACT DIRECT N'ETANT PAS
EXCLUS. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
PROCHAINS BULLETINS. MEME S'ILS PARAISSENT MOINS EXPOSES, LES
HABITANTS DE L'ILE MAURICE SONT AUSSI INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE
CE SYSTEME.=

>

2019-02-08 00:40

WTIO30 FMEE 080027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 54.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AN INTENSE CONVECTION BAND WRAPPED AROUND THE
RAGGED EYE PATTERN. THE SSMI 2301Z MW IMAGES SHOW THIS STRONG CURVED
BAND THAT IS RECONSTITUTING THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE STILL STATIONARY, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE AVAILABLE ANALYSIS.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW ACCELERATING SOUTH-EASTWARDS. A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID
LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE NOW
STEERING THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE
TRACK AND ALLOW A RATHER WEAK DISPERSION IN THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLES.
FROM MONDAY EVENING, THE MODEL DISPERSION INCREASES AS GELENA SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO EVACUATE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, BLOCKED ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING FROM THE WEST.

ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS COMING BACK OVER HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND ITS TWO POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS SHOULD
ALLOW IT TO MAKE THE BEST OF THIS ENERGY SUPPLY. AN INCREASE IN THE
PACE OF INTENSIFICATION IS THUS AWAITED, EVEN IF THE
STATISTICO-DYNAMIC INDICATORS OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINED. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE STILL ALLOWS
RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE INTENSITY. TODAY, A WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ALOFT. GELENA SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN SATURDAY
OR THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD
ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT
FIRST, MAKING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

FROM TOMORROW SATURDAY, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO
RODRIGUES ISLAND, A DIRECT IMPACT STILL BEING POSSIBLE. THE
INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLAND ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS. INHABITANTS OF
MAURITIUS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LOWER FOR THIS ISLAND.=

>

2019-02-08 00:15

WTIO22 FMEE 080014
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 54.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
15.8 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
17.5 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-07 21:20

WTXS32 PGTW 072100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.2S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-07 21:02

WTXS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.2S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.8S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.6S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.1S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.3S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.0S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 54.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AS RAIN BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN ENLARGED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A RAGGED BUT
DEFINED 20-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP
WELL WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 071728Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR THE WHOLE
FORECAST DURATION. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
130 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING, REDUCING TC 13S TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 19:42

WTIO31 FMEE 071918 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 53.9 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

>

2019-02-07 19:42

WTIO30 FMEE 071918 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 53.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

>

2019-02-07 19:39

WTIO31 FMEE 071918
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 53.9 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GELENA
S'EST DE NOUVEAU AMELIOREE AVEC LA RECONSTITUION PROGRESSIVE D'UNE
STRUCTURE EN OEIL. CE REGAIN D'ORGANISATION EST PROBABLEMENT DU AU
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX DONT LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST
ELEVE ET PAS ENCORE CONSOMME. LES IMAGES MICROONDES SSMIS DE 1351Z,
PUIS AMSU-B DE 1759Z, CONFIRMENT LA RECONSTITUTION PROGRESSIVE DE
L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION INTERNE.

LE SYSTEME ACCELERE MAINTENANT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, PUIS DEVRAIT
TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DEMAIN. EN EFFET LE DEPLACEMENT
DE GELENA EST DESORMAIS PILOTE PAR UN PROFOND THALWEG DE HAUTE A
MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE EN CONSTRUCTION AU NORD-EST JUSQU'EN FIN DE
PERIODE. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS CONTRAIGNENT LA TRAJECTOIRE ET
PERMETTENT UNE FAIBLE DISPERSION DES ENSEMBLES DISPONIBLES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE DES EAUX A PLUS FORT
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE ET L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU MONTRE QUE LES
CONDITIONS EN ALTITUDE SONT DESORMAIS EXCELLENTES AVEC DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATIONS, UN COTE EQUATORIAL ET UN COTE POLAIRE. UNE NOUVELLE
HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION EST PROBABLE AVEC UN NOUVEL
EPISODE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE TOUJOURS POSSIBLE D'ICI VENDREDI
SOIR, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LE SYSTEME PRESENTE UN COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE
QUI PERMET DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES. ENSUITE, AVEC
L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST EN ALTITUDE
VENDREDI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EN
JOURNEE DE SAMEDI OU DURANT LA NUIT SUIVANTE. CEPENDANT, LE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES
EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, CE QUI REND LE
TIMING DU DEBUT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN PEU PLUS INCERTAIN QUE LA
MOYENNE.

GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES
PRINCIPALEMENT, A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A
SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE GELENA. MEME S'ILS PARAISSENT
MOINS EXPOSES, LES HABITANTS DE L'ILE MAURICE SONT AUSSI INVITES A
SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

2019-02-07 19:39

WTIO30 FMEE 071918
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 53.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/12 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GELENA'S CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED AGAIN WITH THE
GRADUAL RECONSTITUION OF AN EYE PATTERN. THIS ORGANISATION GAIN IS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER WATERS WITH HIGH
ENERGY CONTENT THAT HAS NOT BEEN ALREADY USED. THE 1351Z SSMIS MW
IMAGES, THEN THE AMSU-B 1759Z IMAGES, CONFIRM THE PROGRESSIVE
RECONSTITUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE INNER RING.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS, AND SHOULD THEN
TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOMORROW. A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST SHOULD NOW STEER THE CYCLONE UNTIL
THE END OF THE TAUS. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE
TRACK AND ALLOW A RATHER WEAK DISPERSION IN THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLES.

ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER MORE ENERGETIC SEAS,
AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS A NOW EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH TWO
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
A NEW PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE ALLOWING
RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE INTENSITY. THEN, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY SHOULD SHOULD
START A SLOW WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS
OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT FIRST, MAKING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT MAINLY TO RODRIGUES ISLAND, FROM
SATURDAY. THE INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLAND ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA. INHABITANTS OF MAURITIUS SHOULD ALSO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE RISK APPEARS TO BE
LOWER FOR THIS ISLAND.=

>

2019-02-07 18:36

WTIO22 FMEE 071832 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 53.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
15.1 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-07 18:34

WTIO22 FMEE 071832
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 53.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
15.1 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
16.9 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-07 15:01

WTXS32 PGTW 071500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-07 14:36

WTXS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.8S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.6S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.4S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.8S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.6S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 53.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN
INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE IN THE
MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS), WHILE A 071009Z SATCON
ESTIMATE IS LOWER, AT 66 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
13S LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS),
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND NASCENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING DRAWN INTO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13S HAS
ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY,
THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PULL TC 13S QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST, BUT TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY; TC 13S
IS TOO FAR NORTH TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. TC 13S IS NOT YET
FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OR CROSS THE 26 DEGREE
CELSIUS ISOTHERM WITHIN THE 120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN THE NEAR TERM, DECREASING VWS
AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE PEAK PREDICTED
INTENSITY, AND THUS THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY NOW PEAKS AT 120 KTS
AT TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, DECREASING SSTS, AND
DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING, REDUCING TC 13S TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU
120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY UNDER THE MULTIMODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
THERE IS HIGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FOR THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, AND OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 12:48

WTIO31 FMEE 071208 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.0 S / 53.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0, CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-07 12:48

WTIO30 FMEE 071208 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 53.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0, CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-07 12:48

WTIO22 FMEE 071206 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 53.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RAD IUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 270 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
14.4 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-07 12:11

WTIO31 FMEE 071208
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.0 S / 53.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0, CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GELENA A PERDU SON OEIL EN FIN DE NUIT,
POUR S'ORGANISER EN BANDE INCURVEE, EN RAISON DE L'EPUISEMENT DU
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DES EAUX SUR LESQUELLE LE SYSTEME STATIONNE
DEPUIS PLUS DE 24HEURES MAINTENANT.
LE SYSTEME COMMENCE A REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-EST COMME LE
SUGGERE L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST AU
COURS DE LA JOURNA E, PUIS LE SUD-EST. EN EFFET LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
JUSQU'A LA FIN D'ECHEANCE VA MAINTENANT ETRE PILOTE PAR UN PROFOND
TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES
ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE EN CONSTRUCTION AU
NORD-EST.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE DES EAUX A PLUS FORT
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE, ET L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU MONTRE QUE LES
CONDITIONS EN ALTITUDE SONT ENTRAIN DE DEVENIR EXCELLENTES AVEC
L'ETABLISSEMENT EN COURS DE JOURNA E D'UN DEUXIEME CANAL D'EVACUATION
COTE POLAIRE.
UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION EST PROBABLE AVEC UN
NOUVEL EPISODE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE TOUJOURS PROSSIBLE D'ICI
VENDREDI SOIR, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LE SYSTEME PRESENTE UN COEUR DE
PETITE TAILLE QUI PERMET DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES.
ENSUITE, AVEC L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST EN
ALTITUDE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI OU DURANT LA NUIT
SUIVANTE. CEPENDANT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI
PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS, CE QUI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN
PEU PLUS INCERTAIN.

GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES
PRINCIPALEMENT. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION
L'EVOLUTION DE GELENA. MEME S'ILS PARAISSENT MOINS EXPOSES, LES
HABITANTS DE L'ILE MAURICE SONT AUSSI INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE
CE SYSTEME.=

>

2019-02-07 12:11

WTIO30 FMEE 071208
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 53.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0, CI=4.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF GELENA HAS LOST ITS EYE LAST NIGHT, TO ORGANIZE
INTO CURVED BAND PATTERN, DUE TO THE LACK OF THE OCEANIC ENERGY OVER
SEAS WHERE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS NOW
THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK AS
ANTICIPATED BY THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE .

THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TODAY AND THEN
SOUTH-EASTWARDS. A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A BUIDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY STEERED THE CYCLONE UNTIL THE END OF THE TAUS.

ON THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND MORE FAVORABLE ENERGICAL SEAS,
AND WV IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BECOMING
EXCELLENT WITH A BUILDING SECOND OUTFLOW POLAR CHANNEL TODAY.
A NEW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED AND A NEW RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SPELL IS STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE ALLOWING RAPID
VARIATIONS OF THE INTENSITY. THEN, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY SHOULD SHOULD
START A SLOW WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS
OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT FIRST, MAKING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT MAINLY TO RODRIGUES ISLANDS LATER
THIS WEEK. THE INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLAND ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA. INHABITANTS OF MAURITIUS SHOULD ALSO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-02-07 12:04

WTIO22 FMEE 071206
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 53.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RAD IUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 270 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
14.4 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-07 08:46

WTXS32 PGTW 070900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.9S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-07 08:41

WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.9S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.4S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.4S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.5S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.5S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.4S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.3S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN INTERMITTENT
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON
THE INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A 070317Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 070318Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 65 KTS, THOUGH THE FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATE WAS T4.5
(77 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S LIES IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND NASCENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING DRAWN INTO AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 13S HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING A
PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, AND MOST RECENTLY TOOK A SLOW BUT
UNEXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE EAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL BUILD IN AND ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU
12. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT QUASISTATIONARY MOTION, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HEDGED SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE NEAR
TERM, AS MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING IMMEDIATE, UNREALISTICALLY FAST
DOUBLE-DIGIT ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING,
REDUCING TC 13S TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY UNDER THE
MULTIMODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE RECENT REALIZED
QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD AND FAST PREDICTED ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE ALONG-TRACK JTWC
FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FOR THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 07:01

WTIO31 FMEE 070653 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 53.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-07 07:01

WTIO30 FMEE 070653 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 53.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-07 06:58

WTIO31 FMEE 070653
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 53.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GELENA CONTINUE DE BEAUCOUP FLUCTUER
AVEC LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL QUI A DISPARU DANS LES TOUTES
DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD EN RAISON DU STATIONNEMENT DU SYSTEME. CES
FLUCTUATIONS INCITENT A STABILISER L'INTENSITE ET L'INTENSITE
INITIALE EST EN BON ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
D'ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE.
COMME ANTICIPE PAR LES MODELES, LE DEPLACEMENT SE FAIT MAINTENANT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST MAIS ENCORE TRES LENTEMENT.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST AU
COURS DE LA JOURNA EE, PUIS LE SUD-EST. EN EFFET LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
JUSQU'A LA FIN D'ECHEANCE VA MAINTENANT ETRE PILOTE PAR UN PROFOND
TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES
ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE EN CONSTRUCTION AU
NORD-EST.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE DES EAUX A PLUS FORT
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE, ET L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU MONTRE QUE LES
CONDITIONS EN ALTITUDE SONT ENTRAIN DE DEVENIR EXCELLENTES AVEC LA
BAISSE DE LA CONTRAINTE DE SUD-EST ET L'ETABLISSEMENT EN COURS DE
JOURNA E DE DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION.
UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION EST PROBABLE AVEC UN
NOUVEL EPISODE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE TOUJOURS PROBABLE D'ICI
VENDREDI SOIR, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LE SYSTEME PRESENTE UN COEUR DE
PETITE TAILLE QUI PERMET DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES.
ENSUITE, AVEC L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST EN
ALTITUDE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI OU DURANT LA NUIT
SUIVANTE. CEPENDANT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI
PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS, CE QUI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN
PEU PLUS INCERTAIN.

GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES
PRINCIPALEMENT. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION
L'EVOLUTION DE GELENA. MEME S'ILS PARAISSENT MOINS EXPOSES, LES
HABITANTS DE L'ILE MAURICE SONT AUSSI INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE
CE SYSTEME.=

>

2019-02-07 06:58

WTIO30 FMEE 070653
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 53.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF GELENA IS ALWAYS FLUCTUATING WITH THE EYE
PATTERN WHICH HAS DISAPPEARED IN THE VERY LAST HOURS, WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE
STATIONARY POSITION OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THOSE FLUCTUATIONS THE
INTENSITY IS STILL SET AT 65 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

AS ANTICIPATED BY THE GUIDANCE THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS BUT SLOWLY AT THE MOMENT.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TODAY AND THEN
SOUTH-EASTWARDS. A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A BUIDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY STEERED THE CYCLONE UNTIL THE END OF THE TAUS.

ON THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND MORE FAVORABLE ENERGICAL SEAS,
AND WV IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BECOMING
EXCELLENT WITH THE END OF THE SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT AND THE
ESTABLISHMENT TODAY OF TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
A NEW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED AND A NEW RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SPELL IS POSSIBLE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE ALLOWING RAPID VARIATIONS OF
THE INTENSITY. THEN, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY SHOULD SHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA
COULD ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER
WINDS AT FIRST, MAKING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEAKENING A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT MAINLY TO RODRIGUES ISLANDS LATER
THIS WEEK. THE INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLAND ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA. INHABITANTS OF MAURITIUS SHOULD ALSO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-02-07 06:43

WTIO22 FMEE 070642 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 53.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RAD IUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 380 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
13.3 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
14.8 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-07 06:40

WTIO22 FMEE 070642
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 53.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RAD IUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 380 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
13.3 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
14.8 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-07 06:25

WTIO22 FMEE 070623 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 53.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RAD IUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 380 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
13.3 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-07 06:23

WTIO22 FMEE 070623
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 53.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RAD IUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 380 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
13.3 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
14.8 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-07 02:07

WTXS32 PGTW 070300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.0S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-07 02:00

WTXS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.0S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.1S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.9S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.0S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.5S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.1S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.0S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN A QUASI-STATIONARY MODE AND
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH AN EVOLVING PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WARM CENTRAL PIXELS OVER THE
EVOLVING EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 062134Z ATMS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S LIES IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS
TRACK FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST DURATION. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 135 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING,
REDUCING TC 13S TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z, AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 01:34

WTIO31 FMEE 070110 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3 S / 53.1 E
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-07 01:34

WTIO30 FMEE 070110 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-07 01:32

WTIO31 FMEE 070110
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3 S / 53.1 E
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GELENA A BEAUCOUP FLUCTUEE DURANT LA
NUIT AVEC LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL QUI A TEMPORAIREMENT DISPARU
DURANT 2 HEURES PEU APRES 18Z. DEPUIS 2015Z, LA CONFIGURATION EST A
NOUVEAU EN PLACE AVEC UN OEIL DECHIQUETTE. CES FLUCTUATIONS INCITENT
A STABILISER L'INTENSITE ET L'INTENSITE INITIALE EST EN BON ACCORD
AVEC LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES D'ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE.

COMME ANTICIPE PAR LES MODELES, LA DERIVE VERS L'OUEST S'EST ARRETEE
VERS 21Z CETTE NUIT. LE SYSTEME EST CONSIDERE COMME
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE MAIS DES INDICATIONS D'UNE LENTE DERIVE SUD
COMMENCENT A SE FAIRE SENTIR. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT
ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST PUIS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DE LA JOURNA
EE. EN EFFET LE FLUX DIRECTEUR JUSQU'A LA FIN D'ECHEANCE VA
MAINTENANT ETRE PILOTE PAR UN PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE EN CONSTRUCTION AU NORD-EST.

L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU MONTRE QUE LES CONDITIONS EN ALTITUDE SONT
ENTRAIN DE DEVENIR EXCELLENTES AVEC LA BAISSE DE LA CONTRAINTE DE
SUD-EST. DES QUE LE SYSTEME REPRENDRA SON DEPLACEMENT, UNE NOUVELLE
HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION EST PROBABLE AVEC UN NOUVEL
EPISODE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE TOUJOURS PROBABLE D'ICI VENDREDI
SOIR, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LE SYSTEME PRESENTE UN COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE
QUI PERMET DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES. ENSUITE, AVEC
L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST EN ALTITUDE EN
JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI OU DURANT LA NUIT
SUIVANTE. CEPENDANT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI
PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS, CE QUI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN
PEU PLUS INCERTAIN.

GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES
PRINCIPALEMENT. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION
L'EVOLUTION DE GELENA. MEME S'ILS PARAISSENT MOINS EXPOSES, LES
HABITANTS DE L'ILE MAURICE SONT AUSSI INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE
CE SYSTEME.=

>

2019-02-07 01:32

WTIO30 FMEE 070110
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

THERE WAS A LOT OF FLUCTUATIONS OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF GELENA
OVERNIGHT. THE EYE PATTERN DISAPPEARED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM
1815Z TO 2015Z. SINCE THAT TIME, A RAGGED EYE HAS FORMED. GIVEN THOSE
FLUCTUATIONS THE INTENSITY IS STILL SET AT 65 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

AS ANTICIPATED BY THE GUIDANCE THE WESTWARDS DRIFT HAS STOPPED AROUND
21Z AND THE SYSTEM MOVE NOW VERY LITTLE WITH JUST SOME INDICATIONS OF
A SOUTHWARDS DRIFT. LATER TODAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE AND
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS. A
DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG
WITH A BUIDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY STEERED THE
CYCLONE UNTIL THE END OF THE TAUS.

WV IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BECOMING EXCELLENT
WITH THE END OF THE SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT. AS SOON AS THE SYSTEM
WILL RESUME ITS FORWARD MOTION, A NEW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED AND A NEW RAPID INTENSIFICATION SPELL IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE
ALLOWING RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE INTENSITY. THEN, WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY
SHOULD SHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE
THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT FIRST, MAKING THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT MAINLY TO RODRIGUES ISLANDS LATER
THIS WEEK. THE INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLAND ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA. INHABITANTS OF MAURITIUS SHOULD ALSO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-02-07 00:46

WTIO22 FMEE 070030 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
13.1 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
14.3 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-07 00:27

WTIO22 FMEE 070030
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
13.1 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
14.3 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-06 21:12

WTXS32 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 12.4S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.9S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-06 21:04

WTXS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 12.4S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.9S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.9S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.3S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.8S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.8S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.9S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 061404Z
SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY OF
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S LIES IN
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND
MODERATE VWS (20-25 KNOTS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS
TRACK FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST DURATION. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING,
REDUCING TC 13S TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 19:40

WTIO31 FMEE 061913 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 53.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-06 19:40

WTIO30 FMEE 061913 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 53.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-06 19:37

WTIO31 FMEE 061913
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 53.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

GELENA S'EST INTENSIFIEE DURANT LA SOIREE AVEC OEIL VISIBLE EN
INFRAROUGE RENFORCEE DEPUIS 1315Z ET EGALEMENT BIEN DEFINI SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES. RECEMMENT LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
CONNAIT D'IMPORTANTES FLUCTUATIONS AVEC UN OEIL QUI A DISPARU.
L'INTENSITE INITIALE EST BASEE SUR LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES DE DVORAK.

DE FAA ON SURPRENANTE, GELENA A DERIVE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST CE
SOIR. D'APRES TOUS LES MODELE DISPONIBLES CELA DEVRAIT ETRE DE COURTE
DUREE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GLOBALEMENT PEU BOUGER CETTE NUIT AVANT
DE GRADUELLEMENT ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST PUIS LE SUD-EST. CE
SOIR, AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME ET L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA
DORSALE PRECITEE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT GAGNER LES MOYENS NIVEAUX
ET UN PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT PRENDRE LA MAIN, ET CE JUSQU'A LA
FIN DE PERIODE. AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER GRADUELLEMENT A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN JEUDI, CANALISE ENTRE LE TALWEG ET LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST.

UN CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST IMPACTE ENCORE LE SYSTEME. CECI COMBINE
AVEC LA FAIBLE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT (AVEC RETROACTION NEGATIVE
POSSIBLE DE L'OCEAN) DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE BAISSE DU RYTHME
D'INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME. DES QUE LE SYSTEME REPRENDRA SON
DEPLACEMENT, UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION EST
PROBABLE AVEC UN NOUVEL EPISODE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE TOUJOURS
PROBABLE D'ICI VENDREDI SOIR, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LE SYSTEME PRESENTE
UN COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE QUI PERMET DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE
RAPIDES. ENSUITE, AVEC L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR
OUEST EN ALTITUDE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PLAFONNER SAMEDI AVANT LE DEBUT D'UNE LENTE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN SOIREE. CEPENDANT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU
SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX
D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, CE QUI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN PEU PLUS INCERTAIN.

GELENA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES
PRINCIPALEMENT MAIS AUSSI L'ILE MAURICE. LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES
SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE GELENA.=

>

2019-02-06 19:37

WTIO30 FMEE 061913
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 53.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

GELENA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING WITH AN EYE SEEN ON EIR SEEN
SINCE 1315Z AND ALSO EVIDENT ON LATEST MW IMAGERY. RECENTLY THE EYE
PATTERN HAS SHOWN SOME LARGE FLUCTUATIONS. BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT.

SURPRISINGLY, GELENA HAS DRIFTED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THIS EVENING.
ACCORDING TO ALL THE GUIDANCE, THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT LIVED MOTION
AND A GENERALLY SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS TURN. THIS
EVENING, WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF GELENA AND THE WEAKENING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONNED RIDGE, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME UP IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
MASCARENES SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE OVER, UNTIL THE END OF THE TAUS.
THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM
THURSDAY, FUNNELED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

SOME SOUTH-EASTERLY SHEAR ARE STILL IMPEDING THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SLOW MOTION THAT COULD INDUCE SOME NEGATIVE OCEANIC FEEDBACK,
SOME LEVEL-OFF THE INTENSIFICATION ARE POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE. AS
SOON AS THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME ITS FORWARD MOTION, A NEW INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED AND A NEW RAPID INTENSIFICATION SPELL IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
INNER CORE ALLOWING RAPID VARIATIONS OF THE INTENSITY. THEN, WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY
SHOULD REACH A PLATEAU FROM SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THE RAPID MOTION OF GELENA COULD
ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG UPPER WINDS AT
FIRST, MAKING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

GELENA IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO MAURITIUS AND MAINLY RODRIGUES
ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK. THE INHABITANTS OF THOSE ISLANDS ARE INVITED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF GELENA.=

>

2019-02-06 18:44

WTIO22 FMEE 061843 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 53.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
12.7 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
13.7 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-06 18:41

WTIO22 FMEE 061843
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 53.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
12.7 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
13.7 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-06 15:44

WTXS32 PGTW 061500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.4S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.8S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-06 14:50

WTXS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.4S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.8S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.4S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.1S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.0S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS CYCLING AROUND AN INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 061017Z AMSR-2 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS ALIGNS WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), BUT IS BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KTS) AND THE FMEE ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13S LIES IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND MODERATE VWS (20-25
KNOTS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S
HAS COMPLETED ITS TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE WEST
WILL NOW BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND ACCELERATE TC
13S ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AS TC 13S MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
TAPS INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS BY TAU 48. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BETWEEN CHIPS AT THE EXTREME HIGH
END, COAMPS-GFS, COAMPS-NAVGEM, AND COAMPS-HWRF BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS WHICH IS BEING PULLED UPWARDS BY CHIPS, AND STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH IS WELL BELOW EVEN THE GPCE CURVE.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS
WELL BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE
MESOSCALE MODELS. AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT TC 13S HAS TURNED
TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z,
070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 12:09

WTIO22 FMEE 061211
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 53.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
12.6 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
13.2 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-06 09:07

WTXS32 PGTW 060900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.9S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.4S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-06 09:04

WTXS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.9S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.4S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.8S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.5S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.3S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.2S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED BUT OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AMBIGUITIES FROM A 060517Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON 40 KT WIND BARBS IN THE ASCAT
PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13S LIES IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND
MODERATE VWS (20-25 KNOTS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
OVER MADAGASCAR. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 13S WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE WEST WILL RECEDE TO THE WEST AS
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE DEEP STR OVER THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM AND ACCELERATE TC 13S ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
12. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AS
TC 13S MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND TAPS INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KTS BY TAU 72.
AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH GFS, HWRF, AND ECMWF SLOWER AND WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION, SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 07:23

WTIO31 FMEE 060722 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:

--------- CORRECTIF SUR LE TYPE POUR LA PREVISION DE 12H

T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-02-06 07:23

WTIO30 FMEE 060722 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

------------------ CORRECTION OF THE STORM TYPE FOR THE 12H FORECAST

T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-02-06 07:22

WTIO22 FMEE 060720
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
12.4 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
13.1 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.
CORRECTION OF THE STORM TYPE ET 12H FORECAST.=

>

2019-02-06 07:21

WTIO31 FMEE 060722
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:

--------- CORRECTIF SUR LE TYPE POUR LA PREVISION DE 12H

T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST BIEN ENROULEE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION A LA FAVEUR D'UNE BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ENVIRONNEMENTAL. LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EN
BANDE INCURVEE DONNE UNE ESTIMATION DVORAK A 40KT, CE QUI EST EN
ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES DE VENT DIFFUSOMETRIQUES DE LA PASSE ASCAT DE
0547Z. AINSI, LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR A PROCEDE AU
BAPTEME DU SYSTEME A 03Z. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMI DE 2332Z ET
SSMIS DE 0127Z MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES EN COURS DE
CONSOLIDATION AUTOUR D'UN COEUR RELATIVEMENT COMPACT.

ACTUELLEMENT, GELENA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
NORD-NORD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD SUR MADAGASCAR. CE SOIR, AVEC
L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME ET L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PRECITEE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REMONTER DANS LES MOYENS NIVEAUX
ET UN PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT PRENDRE LA MAIN, ET CE JUSQU'A LA
FIN DE PERIODE. AINSI, APRES AVOIR POSSIBLEMENT DECRIT UNE BOUCLE
DANS LES HEURES A VENIR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER GRADUELLEMENT
EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE JEUDI, CANALISE ENTRE LE TALWEG
ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST. AINSI, LA
PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE PRESENTE PEU DE DISPERSION. LA PRINCIPALE
INCERTITUDE SE SITUE SUR LA POSITION DU SYSTEME LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE.

LE SYSTEME EST DESORMAIS DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE A SON
DEVELOPPEMENT, QUI VA DEVENIR TRES FAVORABLE A TOUT POINT DE VUE. UN
EPISODE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE APPARAIT PROBABLE D'ICI VENDREDI
SOIR. ENSUITE, AVEC L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST
EN ALTITUDE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PLAFONNER AVANT LE DEBUT D'UNE LENTE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SAMEDI.
CEPENDANT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE
COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS,
CE QUI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN PEU PLUS
INCERTAIN.

LES HABITANTS DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION
L'EVOLUTION DE GELENA, UN IMPACT DIRECT ETANT PREVU SAMEDI EN COURS
DE JOURNEE, DEUX JOURS APRES LA SITUATION FUNANI.=

>

2019-02-06 07:21

WTIO30 FMEE 060722
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

------------------ CORRECTION OF THE STORM TYPE FOR THE 12H FORECAST

T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION WRAPPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER THANKS TO THE DECREASE IN ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR. THE SAT
PRESENTATION YIELDS A 40-KT DVORAK ESTIMATION, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
0547Z ASCAT SCATT WINDS. THUS, MADAGASCAR MET SERVICE PROCEEDED TO
THE NAMING OF THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING AT 03Z. THE 2332Z SSMI AND
0127Z SSMIS MW IMAGES SHOW A CONSOLIDATING AND RATHER COMPACT
LOW-LEVEL INNER CORE.

CURRENTLY, GELENA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR, SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS EVENING, WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF GELENA AND THE
WEAKENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED RIDGE, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME
UP IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE OVER, UNTIL THE END OF
THE TAUS. THUS, AFTER POSSIBLY FOLLOWING A LOOP IN THE NEXT HOURS,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM THURSDAY,
FUNNELED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SHOWS
WEAK DISPERSION. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE ALONG-TRACK TIMING.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT,
WHICH WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS
LIKELY TO TRIGGER BY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN, WITH THE STRENGHTENING OF
A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY SHOULD REACH A PLATEAU
BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING FROM SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE RAPID
MOTION OF GELENA COULD ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE
STRONG UPPER WINDS AT FIRST, MAKING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEAKENING A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

THE INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF GELENA, A DIRECT IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM BEING POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, ONLY TWO DAYS AFTER FUNANI.=

>

2019-02-06 07:13

WTIO31 FMEE 060712 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-02-06 07:13

WTIO30 FMEE 060712 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-02-06 07:11

WTIO31 FMEE 060712
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST BIEN ENROULEE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION A LA FAVEUR D'UNE BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ENVIRONNEMENTAL. LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EN
BANDE INCURVEE DONNE UNE ESTIMATION DVORAK A 40KT, CE QUI EST EN
ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES DE VENT DIFFUSOMETRIQUES DE LA PASSE ASCAT DE
0547Z. AINSI, LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR A PROCEDE AU
BAPTEME DU SYSTEME A 03Z. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMI DE 2332Z ET
SSMIS DE 0127Z MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES EN COURS DE
CONSOLIDATION AUTOUR D'UN COEUR RELATIVEMENT COMPACT.

ACTUELLEMENT, GELENA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
NORD-NORD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD SUR MADAGASCAR. CE SOIR, AVEC
L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME ET L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PRECITEE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REMONTER DANS LES MOYENS NIVEAUX
ET UN PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT PRENDRE LA MAIN, ET CE JUSQU'A LA
FIN DE PERIODE. AINSI, APRES AVOIR POSSIBLEMENT DECRIT UNE BOUCLE
DANS LES HEURES A VENIR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER GRADUELLEMENT
EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE JEUDI, CANALISE ENTRE LE TALWEG
ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST. AINSI, LA
PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE PRESENTE PEU DE DISPERSION. LA PRINCIPALE
INCERTITUDE SE SITUE SUR LA POSITION DU SYSTEME LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE.

LE SYSTEME EST DESORMAIS DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE A SON
DEVELOPPEMENT, QUI VA DEVENIR TRES FAVORABLE A TOUT POINT DE VUE. UN
EPISODE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE APPARAIT PROBABLE D'ICI VENDREDI
SOIR. ENSUITE, AVEC L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST
EN ALTITUDE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PLAFONNER AVANT LE DEBUT D'UNE LENTE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SAMEDI.
CEPENDANT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE
COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS,
CE QUI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN PEU PLUS
INCERTAIN.

LES HABITANTS DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION
L'EVOLUTION DE GELENA, UN IMPACT DIRECT ETANT PREVU SAMEDI EN COURS
DE JOURNEE, DEUX JOURS APRES LA SITUATION FUNANI.=

>

2019-02-06 07:11

WTIO30 FMEE 060712
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION WRAPPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER THANKS TO THE DECREASE IN ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR. THE SAT
PRESENTATION YIELDS A 40-KT DVORAK ESTIMATION, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
0547Z ASCAT SCATT WINDS. THUS, MADAGASCAR MET SERVICE PROCEEDED TO
THE NAMING OF THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING AT 03Z. THE 2332Z SSMI AND
0127Z SSMIS MW IMAGES SHOW A CONSOLIDATING AND RATHER COMPACT
LOW-LEVEL INNER CORE.

CURRENTLY, GELENA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR, SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS EVENING, WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF GELENA AND THE
WEAKENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED RIDGE, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME
UP IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE OVER, UNTIL THE END OF
THE TAUS. THUS, AFTER POSSIBLY FOLLOWING A LOOP IN THE NEXT HOURS,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM THURSDAY,
FUNNELED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SHOWS
WEAK DISPERSION. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE ALONG-TRACK TIMING.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT,
WHICH WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS
LIKELY TO TRIGGER BY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN, WITH THE STRENGHTENING OF
A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY SHOULD REACH A PLATEAU
BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING FROM SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE RAPID
MOTION OF GELENA COULD ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF THE
STRONG UPPER WINDS AT FIRST, MAKING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEAKENING A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

THE INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF GELENA, A DIRECT IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM BEING POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, ONLY TWO DAYS AFTER FUNANI.=

>

2019-02-06 06:26

WTIO22 FMEE 060626
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
12.4 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
13.1 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-02-06 03:05

WTXS32 PGTW 060300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HABROR HI//051352ZFEB19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.0S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.3S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-06 02:58

WTXS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.0S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.3S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.1S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.3S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.5S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.2S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.8S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED BUT OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052202Z AMSR2 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A VERY WELL DEFINED LLCC AND DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
BASED ON A FMEE FIX INTENSITY OF T3.0 (35 KNOTS) AND AN AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.1 (36 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 13S LIES IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS) WHICH IS
BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW BEING
PROVIDED BY A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 13S IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR OVER MADAGASCAR WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AND WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR THE DEEP STR OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN TO TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM AND
PUSH TC 13S ONTO A SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36,
ACCELERATING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, AS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN SHIFTS TO A DUAL-
CHANNEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BY TAU 48, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS EXCEPT NAVGEM
SUPPORTING THE TRACK NORTHWEST, THEN TURNING SOUTH WITHIN 24 HOURS
AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD. NAVGEM INDICATES A BROAD TURN TO THE
EAST THEN ULTIMATELY SOUTHEAST BUT THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED
UNLIKELY AT THE CURRENT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>