Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FUNANI-19
in Mauritius

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-02-09 20:35

WTXS51 PGTW 092100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190209190655
2019020918 12S FUNANI 018 02 140 20 SATL 040
T000 308S 0768E 045 R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 350S 0791E 040 R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 30.8S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM

>

2019-02-09 20:14

WTXS51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190209190655
2019020918 12S FUNANI 018 02 140 20 SATL 040
T000 308S 0768E 045 R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 350S 0791E 040 R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 30.8S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020906 281S 745E 60
1219020906 281S 745E 60
1219020912 293S 753E 50
1219020912 293S 753E 50
1219020918 308S 768E 45
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 20:04

WTXS31 PGTW 092100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 30.8S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LIMITED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE

>

2019-02-09 20:01

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 30.8S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LIMITED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG (40 TO 50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
091641Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35
KNOTS). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 14:37

WTXS51 PGTW 091500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190209132500
2019020912 12S FUNANI 017 02 150 14 SATL 060
T000 293S 0753E 050 R050 105 NE QD 085 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 328S 0776E 045 R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 379S 0799E 045 R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 29.3S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.8S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-09 14:37

WTXS31 PGTW 091500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 29.3S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.8S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.9S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

>

2019-02-09 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190209132500
2019020912 12S FUNANI 017 02 150 14 SATL 060
T000 293S 0753E 050 R050 105 NE QD 085 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 328S 0776E 045 R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 379S 0799E 045 R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 29.3S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.8S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.9S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 30.2S 75.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1124 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020906 281S 745E 60
1219020906 281S 745E 60
1219020912 293S 753E 50
1219020912 293S 753E 50
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 14:30

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 29.3S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.8S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.9S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 30.2S 75.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1124 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 091124Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH REMNANT, WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 291124Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE DISINTEGRATING, SHEARED STRUCTURE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS, BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KTS) TO T3.0 (45 KTS). THE
AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RETURNS T3.4 (53 KTS). TC 12S IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
IT COMES UNDER THE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM HAS CROSSED THE 26 CELSIUS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (25-30 KTS). IT
MAINTAINS A GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND IS NOT YET SITUATED
UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE JET. TC 12S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT UNDERGOES ETT, BUT WILL REMAIN AN EXPANSIVE STORM WITH FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND A BROAD WIND FIELD AFTER IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU
24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 13:16

WTIO31 FMEE 091312 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.9 S / 76.1 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 20 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 150 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 43.7 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

>

2019-02-09 13:16

WTIO30 FMEE 091312 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/8/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.9 S / 76.1 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 150 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 43.7 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

>

2019-02-09 13:13

WTIO31 FMEE 091312
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.9 S / 76.1 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 20 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 150 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 43.7 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONVECTION DE FUNANI CONTINUE DE S'ATTENUER, SOUS L'EFFET D'UN
FORT CISAILLEMENT DE VENT VERTICAL. LE CENTRE RESTE EN BORDURE
SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION LA PLUS FORTE. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN
CONFIGURATION CISAILLE DE 3.5 PEUT ETRE FAITE MAIS DU FAIT DE SON
RAPIDE DEPLACEMENT, LES VENTS MAXIMAUX RESTENT ESTIMES A 55KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE FUNANI : LE
SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST, PILOTE PAR
LA FACE EST D'UN PROFOND TALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, FUNANI PLONGE VERS LE SUD ET EST PRIS DANS LA
CIRCULATION DES LATITUDES TEMPEREES.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE DANS LES FORTS VENTS DE SECTEUR OUEST EN ALTITUDE A
L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG, DEFINISSANT UN ENVIRONNEMENT FORTEMENT
CISAILLE. EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL ET EN EVOLUANT
SOUS DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FROIDES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. IL
POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS LORS DE SON
EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPEREES GRACE AUX PROCESSUS
BAROCLINES ET EN RAISON DE SA GRANDE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

DU FAIT DE SA LATITUDE TRES SUD, CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER SUR CE
SYSTEME. CE SYSTEME CONTINUERA D'ETRE SUIVI AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS VIA LE BULLETIN FQIO21 FMEE.=

>

2019-02-09 13:13

WTIO30 FMEE 091312
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/8/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.9 S / 76.1 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 150 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 43.7 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

FUNANI'S CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE, UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CENTRE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEAR PATTERN OF
3.5 CAN BE DONE BUT DUE TO ITS FAST DISPLACEMENT, THE MAXIMUM WINDS
REMAIN ESTIMATED AT 55KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECASTED TRACK OF FUNANI : THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
ITS RAPID DISPLACEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST, STEERED BY THE EASTERN SIDE
OF A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVEL TROUGH. ON THIS TRACK, FUNANI MOVES
SOUTHWARD AND IS CAUGHT IN THE CIRCULATION OF SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED TO THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, DEFINING A HIGHLY
WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO LOOSE
ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND AS IT EVOLVES OVER COOLER AND COOLER SST.
HOWEVER, THE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO FUNANI SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STRONG
AS IT EVACUATES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, THANKS TO BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES AND ITS HIGH SPEED OF TRACK.

DUE TO ITS SOUTHERN LATITUDE, THIS ADVISORY IS THE LAST ONE ON THIS
SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE AVAILABLE UNDER FQIO21 FMEE HEADER.=

>

2019-02-09 12:47

WTIO22 FMEE 091239 RRA
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.9 S / 76.1 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 130 MN FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
33.2 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
37.7 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

>

2019-02-09 12:37

WTIO22 FMEE 091239
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.9 S / 76.1 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 130 MN FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
33.2 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
37.7 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYTEM. FIRTHER INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE
UNDER THE FQIO21 FMEE HEADER.=

>

2019-02-09 12:24

WTIO22 FMEE 091216
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.9 S / 76.1 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 130 MN FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
33.2 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
37.7 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-09 09:02

WTXS51 PGTW 090900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190209072523
2019020906 12S FUNANI 016 02 140 15 SATL 060
T000 281S 0745E 060 R050 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
185 NE QD 165 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 308S 0767E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 351S 0790E 045 R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.1S 74.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 74.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.8S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

>

2019-02-09 09:02

WTXS31 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.1S 74.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 74.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.8S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-09 08:52

WTXS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190209072523
2019020906 12S FUNANI 016 02 140 15 SATL 060
T000 281S 0745E 060 R050 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 165 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 308S 0767E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 351S 0790E 045 R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.1S 74.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 74.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.8S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 75.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1056 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020906 281S 745E 60
1219020906 281S 745E 60
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 08:51

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.1S 74.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 74.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.8S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 75.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1056 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH
WARMING, INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE INTERMITTENTLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
DECAYING STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS,
BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55
KTS) TO T4.0 (65KTS). A 090415Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 67 KTS, ALTHOUGH
THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RETURNS AN ESTIMATE OF 61 KTS. TC 12S
IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT COMES UNDER THE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGOES EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM HAS CROSSED THE 26 CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC
12S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE IT UNDERGOES ETT, BUT WILL REMAIN
AN EXPANSIVE STORM WITH FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND A BROAD WIND
FIELD AFTER IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 06:50

WTIO31 FMEE 090644 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.2 S / 74.7 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 150 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 60 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 46.3 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5.CI=4.0+

>

2019-02-09 06:50

WTIO30 FMEE 090644 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/8/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 74.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 150 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 60 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 46.3 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5.CI=4.0+

>

2019-02-09 06:47

WTIO31 FMEE 090644
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.2 S / 74.7 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 150 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 60 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 46.3 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5;CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION DE FUNANI S'EST BIEN
ATTENUEE, PRESENTANT UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DANS LE SECTEUR EST SOUS
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT VERTICAL. LE CENTRE SE TROUVE EN
BORDURE EST DE LA CONVECTION DEFINISSANT UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE
DONT L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 60KT,
PASSANT FUNANI AU SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE DE FUNANI NE CHANGE PAS. LE SYSTEME CONTINUE
D'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST, PILOTE PAR LA FACE EST D'UN PROFOND
TALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE CIRCULANT DEPUIS LE SUD-OUEST. LES
MODELES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE DANS LES FORTS VENTS DE SECTEUR OUEST EN ALTITUDE A
L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG, DEFINISSANT UN ENVIRONNEMENT FORTEMENT
CISAILLE. EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL ET EN EVOLUANT
SOUS DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FROIDES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. IL
POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS LORS DE SON
EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPEREES GRACE AUX PROCESSUS
BAROCLINES ET EN RAISON DE SA GRANDE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.=

>

2019-02-09 06:47

WTIO30 FMEE 090644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/8/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 74.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 150 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 60 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 46.3 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5;CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, FUNANI CONVECTION HAS ATTENUATED WELL, SHOWING
A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE EASTERN SECTOR DUE TO VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE CENTRE IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
DEFINING A SHEAR PATTERN WHOSE DVORAK ANALYSIS MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO
ESTIMATE WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 60KT, PASSING FUNANI AT THE THRESHOLD
OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

THE FORECASTED TRACK OF FUNANI DON'T CHANGE. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON
ACCELERATING SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP
UPPER-TO-MID LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS
SCENARIO.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED TO THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, DEFINING A HIGHLY
WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO LOOSE
ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND AS IT EVOLVES OVER COOLER AND COOLER SST.
HOWEVER, THE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO FUNANI SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STRONG
AS IT EVACUATES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, THANKS TO BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES AND ITS HIGH SPEED OF TRACK.=

>

2019-02-09 06:34

WTIO22 FMEE 090609 RRA
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 74.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
280 MN WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
31.1 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
35.2 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

>

2019-02-09 06:32

WTIO22 FMEE 090609
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 74.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
280 MN WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
31.1 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
35.2 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-09 02:47

WTXS51 PGTW 090300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190209012903
2019020900 12S FUNANI 015 02 150 14 SATL 030
T000 269S 0734E 070 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 170 SE QD
120 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 298S 0757E 055 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 332S 0777E 045 R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 382S 0803E 035 R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-09 02:35

WTXS31 PGTW 090300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 73.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.8S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-09 02:34

WTXS51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190209012903
2019020900 12S FUNANI 015 02 150 14 SATL 030
T000 269S 0734E 070 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 298S 0757E 055 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 332S 0777E 045 R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 382S 0803E 035 R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 73.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.8S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 38.2S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 74.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 974 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020818 257S 726E 75
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020900 269S 734E 70
1219020900 269S 734E 70
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 02:26

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 73.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.8S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 38.2S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 74.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 974 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 082255Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER TILTED ABOUT 40NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON THE
DECAYING STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.0 (65
KNOTS) TO 4.5 (77 KNOTS). TC 12S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DEEP
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SST (LESS THAN
24C) BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AS IT COMPLETES ETT AND
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS NEAR TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-09 01:25

WTIO31 FMEE 090122 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.9 S / 73.0 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 42.9 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 46.5 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 48.2 S / 94.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5.CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-09 01:25

WTIO30 FMEE 090122 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 73.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 42.9 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 46.5 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 48.2 S / 94.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5.CI=4.5-

>

2019-02-09 01:22

WTIO31 FMEE 090122
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.9 S / 73.0 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 42.9 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 46.5 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 48.2 S / 94.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5;CI=4.5-

LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES MONTRE TOUJOURS UNE CIRCULATION
PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST ET UN CENTRE SOUS LA
BORDURE OUEST DE LA CONVECTION.

FUNANI CONTINUE D'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST, PILOTE PAR LA FACE EST
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE CIRCULANT DEPUIS LE
SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE MAINTENANT DANS LES FORTS VENTS DE SECTEUR OUEST EN
ALTITUDE A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND TALWEG. DES DEMAIN, EN INTERAGISSANT
AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL ET EN EVOLUANT SOUS DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS
FROIDES, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES. IL POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS
LORS DE SON A VACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPA RA ES GRACE AUX
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES ET EN RAISON DE SA GRANDE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT.=

>

2019-02-09 01:22

WTIO30 FMEE 090122
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 73.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 42.9 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 46.5 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 48.2 S / 94.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5;CI=4.5-

THE LAST SATELIET IMAGERIEE SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION OVER
THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH A CENTER UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.

FUNANI KEEPS ON ACCELERATING SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST AND BY A VANISHING RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED TO THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND AS IT EVOLVES OVER
COOLER AND COOLER SST. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO FUNANI SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER STRONG AS IT EVACUATES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, THANKS
TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AND ITS HIGH SPEED OF TRACK.=

>

2019-02-09 00:46

WTIO22 FMEE 090038 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 73.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

>

2019-02-09 00:43

WTIO22 FMEE 090038
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 73.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
29.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
33.3 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-08 20:55

WTXS51 PGTW 082100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190208193304
2019020818 12S FUNANI 014 02 130 24 SATL 030
T000 256S 0728E 075 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD
140 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 284S 0751E 060 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 316S 0774E 045 R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 355S 0798E 035 R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 72.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 20:55

WTXS31 PGTW 082100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 72.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 72.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.4S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 20:31

WTXS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190208193304
2019020818 12S FUNANI 014 02 130 24 SATL 030
T000 256S 0728E 075 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 284S 0751E 060 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 316S 0774E 045 R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 355S 0798E 035 R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 72.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 72.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.4S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.6S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 73.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 918 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020800 216S 684E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020806 228S 697E 115
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020812 241S 707E 100
1219020818 256S 728E 75
1219020818 256S 728E 75
1219020818 256S 728E 75
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 20:22

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 72.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 72.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.4S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.6S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 73.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 918 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 081703Z AMSU
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
BASED ON THE MARKED WEAKENING TREND AND DECAYING STRUCTURE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS). TC 12S
IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOL SST (LESS THAN 24C) BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AS
IT COMPLETES ETT AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS NEAR TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 18:17

WTIO31 FMEE 081745 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.3 S / 71.6 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 39.4 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0.CI=4.5+

>

2019-02-08 18:17

WTIO30 FMEE 081745 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 39.4 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0.CI=4.5+

>

2019-02-08 18:17

WTIO22 FMEE 081743 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

2019-02-08 18:13

WTIO31 FMEE 081745
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.3 S / 71.6 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 39.4 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0;CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DU SYSTEME S'EST
BIEN DA GRADA E SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR
OUEST. LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES DE LA JOURNEE MONTRE UNE
CIRCULATION PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST ET UN CENTRE
SOUS LA BORDURE OUEST DE LA CONVECTION.

FUNANI CONTINUE D'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST, PILOTE PAR LA FACE EST
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE CIRCULANT DEPUIS LE
SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD MEME SI LA DISPERSION
DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DE L'EPS AUGMENTE UNE FOIS QUE FUNANI
PASSE AU SUD DE 30S.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE MAINTENANT DANS LES FORTS VENTS DE SECTEUR OUEST EN
ALTITUDE A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND TALWEG. DES DEMAIN, EN INTERAGISSANT
AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL ET EN EVOLUANT SOUS DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS
FROIDES, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES. IL POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS
LORS DE SON A VACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPA RA ES GRACE AUX
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES ET EN RAIOSN DE SA GRANDE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT.=

>

2019-02-08 18:13

WTIO30 FMEE 081745
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 39.4 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0;CI=4.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERIES OF
THE DAY SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT WITH A CENTER UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

FUNANI KEEPS ON ACCELERATING SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST AND BY A VANISHING RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH
THE DISPERSION OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE EPS ENSEMBLE
INCREASES ONCE FUNANI CROSSES THE 30TH PARALLEL.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED TO THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND AS IT EVOLVES OVER
COOLER AND COOLER SST. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO FUNANI SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER STRONG AS IT EVACUATES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, THANKS
TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AND ITS HIGH SPEED OF TRACK.=

>

2019-02-08 18:13

WTIO22 FMEE 081743
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
300 MN WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
29.1 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
31.9 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-08 15:02

WTXS51 PGTW 081500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190208135428
2019020812 12S FUNANI 013 02 145 20 SATL 040
T000 244S 0712E 105 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 271S 0734E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD
110 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 302S 0757E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 335S 0780E 055 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 379S 0805E 045 R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 15:02

WTXS31 PGTW 081500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.1S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 14:47

WTXS51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190208135428
2019020812 12S FUNANI 013 02 145 20 SATL 040
T000 244S 0712E 105 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 271S 0734E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 302S 0757E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 335S 0780E 055 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 379S 0805E 045 R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.1S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.2S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.9S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 71.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 813 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020800 217S 687E 115
1219020800 217S 687E 115
1219020800 217S 687E 115
1219020806 228S 699E 115
1219020806 228S 699E 115
1219020806 228S 699E 115
1219020812 244S 712E 105
1219020812 244S 712E 105
1219020812 244S 712E 105
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.1S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.2S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.9S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 71.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 813 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED BUT CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 081130Z METEOSAT 8 VISIBLE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, BUT TC 12S IS
CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD COOLER WATER. TC 12S IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR WILL BE THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT, TC
12S WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
BY TAU 36, TC 12S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 13:03

WTIO31 FMEE 081257 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5.CI=5.0+

>

2019-02-08 13:03

WTIO30 FMEE 081257 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5.CI=5.0+

>

2019-02-08 13:00

WTIO31 FMEE 081257
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5;CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DU SYSTEME S'EST
BIEN DA GRADA E SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR
OUEST. LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES DE LA JOURNEE MONTRE UNE
CIRCULATION PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST ET UN CENTRE
EN BORDURE OUEST DE LA CONVECTION. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST EN
ACCORD AVEC L'ADT DU CIMSS.

FUNANI CONTINUE D'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST, PILOTE PAR LA FACE EST
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE CIRCULANT DEPUIS LE
SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD MEME SI LA DISPERSION
DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DE L'EPS AUGMENTE UNE FOIS QUE FUNANI
PASSE AU SUD DE 30S.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE MAINTENANT DANS LES FORTS VENTS DE SECTEUR OUEST A
L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. DES DEMAIN, EN INTERAGISSANT
AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL ET EN EVOLUANT SOUS DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS
FROIDES, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES. IL POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS
LORS DE SON A VACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPA RA ES GRACE AUX
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.=

>

2019-02-08 13:00

WTIO30 FMEE 081257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERIES OF
THE DAY SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT WITH A CENTER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADT FROM
CIMSS.

FUNANI KEEPS ON ACCELERATING SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST AND BY A VANISHING RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH
THE DISPERSION OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE EPS ENSEMBLE
INCREASES ONCE FUNANI CROSSES THE 30TH PARALLEL.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED TO THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND AS IT EVOLVES OVER
COOLER AND COOLER SST. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO FUNANI SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER STRONG AS IT EVACUATES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, THANKS
TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.=

>

2019-02-08 12:54

WTIO31 FMEE 081255 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5.CI=5.0+

>

2019-02-08 12:54

WTIO30 FMEE 081255 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5.CI=5.0+

>

2019-02-08 12:52

WTIO31 FMEE 081255
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5;CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DU SYSTEME S'EST
BIEN DA GRADA E SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR
OUEST. LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES DE LA JOURNEE MONTRE UNE
CIRCULATION PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST ET UN CENTRE
EN BORDURE OUEST DE LA CONVECTION.

FUNANI CONTINUE D'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST, PILOTE PAR LA FACE EST
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE CIRCULANT DEPUIS LE
SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD MEME SI LA DISPERSION
DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DE L'EPS AUGMENTE UNE FOIS QUE FUNANI
PASSE AU SUD DE 30S.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE MAINTENANT DANS LES FORTS VENTS DE SECTEUR OUEST A
L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. DES DEMAIN, EN INTERAGISSANT
AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL ET EN EVOLUANT SOUS DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS
FROIDES, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES. IL POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS
LORS DE SON A VACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPA RA ES GRACE AUX
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.=

>

2019-02-08 12:52

WTIO30 FMEE 081255
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERIES OF
THE DAY SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT WITH A CENTER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

FUNANI KEEPS ON ACCELERATING SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST AND BY A VANISHING RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH
THE DISPERSION OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE EPS ENSEMBLE
INCREASES ONCE FUNANI CROSSES THE 30TH PARALLEL.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED TO THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND AS IT EVOLVES OVER
COOLER AND COOLER SST. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO FUNANI SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER STRONG AS IT EVACUATES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, THANKS
TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.=

>

2019-02-08 12:51

WTIO31 FMEE 081225 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/80.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5.CI=5.0+

>

2019-02-08 12:51

WTIO30 FMEE 081225 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/80.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5.CI=5.0+

>

2019-02-08 12:48

WTIO31 FMEE 081225
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/80.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 190 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5;CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DU SYSTEME S'EST
BIEN DA GRADA E SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR
OUEST. LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES DE LA JOURNEE MONTRE UNE
CIRCULATION PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST ET UN CENTRE
EN BORDURE OUEST DE LA CONVECTION.

FUNANI CONTINUE D'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST, PILOTE PAR LA FACE EST
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE CIRCULANT DEPUIS LE
SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD MEME SI LA DISPERSION
DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DE L'EPS AUGMENTE UNE FOIS QUE FUNANI
PASSE AU SUD DE 30S.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE MAINTENANT DANS LES FORTS VENTS DE SECTEUR OUEST A
L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. DES DEMAIN, EN INTERAGISSANT
AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL ET EN EVOLUANT SOUS DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS
FROIDES, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES. IL POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS
LORS DE SON A VACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPA RA ES GRACE AUX
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.=

>

2019-02-08 12:48

WTIO30 FMEE 081225
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/80.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERIES OF
THE DAY SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT WITH A CENTER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

FUNANI KEEPS ON ACCELERATING SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST AND BY A VANISHING RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH
THE DISPERSION OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE EPS ENSEMBLE
INCREASES ONCE FUNANI CROSSES THE 30TH PARALLEL.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED TO THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND AS IT EVOLVES OVER
COOLER AND COOLER SST. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO FUNANI SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER STRONG AS IT EVACUATES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, THANKS
TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.=

>

2019-02-08 12:47

WTIO20 FMEE 081209 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
250 MN WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS STORM
FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 83 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT,
UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
27.0 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-08 12:07

WTIO20 FMEE 081209
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
250 MN WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS STORM
FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 83 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT,
UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
27.0 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
29.8 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-08 09:22

WTXS51 PGTW 080900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190208081434
2019020806 12S FUNANI 012 02 135 16 SATL 035
T000 228S 0699E 115 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 155 SE QD
125 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 254S 0721E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD
105 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 282S 0744E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD
100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 313S 0767E 060 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 353S 0790E 050 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 09:10

WTXS31 PGTW 080900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 09:09

WTXS51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190208081434
2019020806 12S FUNANI 012 02 135 16 SATL 035
T000 228S 0699E 115 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 155 SE QD 125 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 254S 0721E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 105 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 282S 0744E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 313S 0767E 060 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 353S 0790E 050 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.3S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.3S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 722 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 53 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020800 217S 687E 115
1219020800 217S 687E 115
1219020800 217S 687E 115
1219020806 228S 699E 115
1219020806 228S 699E 115
1219020806 228S 699E 115
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 09:05

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.3S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.3S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 722 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 080600Z METEOSAT 8 VISIBLE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, BUT TC 12S IS TRACKING TOWARD
COOLER WATER. TC 12S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT, TC 12S WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY,
REACHING 90 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 53 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 06:11

WTIO20 FMEE 080609
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 69.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
250 MN WITHIN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
25.4 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
28.4 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-08 03:08

WTXS51 PGTW 080300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190208022719
2019020800 12S FUNANI 011 02 140 14 SATL 030
T000 217S 0687E 115 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD
105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 239S 0709E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD
100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 266S 0731E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD
110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 294S 0753E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 327S 0775E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 417S 0825E 030
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 68.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 03:04

WTXS51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190208022719
2019020800 12S FUNANI 011 02 140 14 SATL 030
T000 217S 0687E 115 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 239S 0709E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 266S 0731E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 294S 0753E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 327S 0775E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 417S 0825E 030
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 68.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 68.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.6S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.4S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.7S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 41.7S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 69.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 646 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY DEPICTS
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 10 NM DIAMETER EYE, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES ON THE IR EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATES ARE
MODERATING AS FUNANI CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD. TC 12S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST, AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT
THIS TRACK MOTION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, AFTER WHICH VWS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. FUNANI
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48, AND THIS TRANSITION
WILL BE COMPLETE PRIOR TO TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020800 217S 687E 115
1219020800 217S 687E 115
1219020800 217S 687E 115
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 03:04

WTXS31 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 68.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 68.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-08 02:59

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 68.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 68.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.6S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.4S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.7S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 41.7S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 69.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 646 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 10 NM DIAMETER EYE,
WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES ON THE IR
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS),
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATING DEVELOPMENT AS
FUNANI CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD. TC 12S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST, AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT
THIS TRACK MOTION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, AFTER WHICH VWS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AS A
MID-LATITUDETROUGH APPROACHES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO COOL. FUNANI IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
48, AND THIS TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE PRIOR TO TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z, AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-08 00:52

WTIO31 FMEE 080043 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 68.6 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 210 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 210
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+.CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-08 00:52

WTIO30 FMEE 080043 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 68.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 210 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 210
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+.CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-08 00:51

WTIO31 FMEE 080043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 68.6 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 210 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 210
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+;CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU A LA SECONDE
PHASE DU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC) S'EST FAIT
SENTIR SUR LES ANIMATIONS IR. LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL S'EST
PROGRESSIVEMENT AFFAIBLIE AVANT DE LAISSER LA PLACE A UN POINT CHAUD
AU SEIN D'UN LARGE CDO. AUCUNES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES NE SONT
DISPONIBLES POUR SURVEILLER L'AVANCEMENT DE L'ERC. L'INTENSITE
ACTUELLE A DE NOUVEAU ETE BAISSEE DE 5KT SANS ATTENDRE LA BAISSE DU
CI DE DVORAK.

FUNANI CONTINUE D'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST, PILOTE PAR LA FACE EST
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE CIRCULANT DEPUIS LE
SUD-OUEST ET PAR L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'EST. LES MODELES
RESTENT EN BON ACCORD MEME SI LA DISPERSION DES MODELES DETERMINISTES
ET DE L'EPS AUGMENTE UNE FOIS QUE FUNANI PASSE AU SUD DE 30S.

FUNANI PROFITE ENCORE DE L'EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD, A L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. PAR CONTRE, LES
EFFETS NA FASTES DE LA PRA SENCE DE CE TALWEG DEVRAIENT DEVENIR PLUS
VISIBLES AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC UNE AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST. LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER SA
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. DE PLUS, LE CONTENU A NERGA TIQUE OCA ANIQUE
EST PRA VU FAIBLIR DEMAIN PUIS DEVENIR INSUFFISANT A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI. DANS LE MA ME TEMPS, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET
SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES MAIS POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER DES VENTS ASSEZ
FORTS LORS DE SON A VACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPA RA ES GRACE
AUX PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.=

>

2019-02-08 00:51

WTIO30 FMEE 080043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 68.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 210 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 210
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+;CI=6.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE WEAKENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND PHASE
OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) HAS BEEN DISPLAYED ON THE IR
SAT ANIMATIONS. THE EYE PATTERN PROGRESSIVELY DECAYED BEFORE BEING
REPLACED BY A WARM SPOT LOCATED WITHIN A LARGE CDO. NO RECENT MW
IMAGE IS CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE ERC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BY 5KT WITOUT WAITING FOR THE
DECREASE OF THE DVORAK CI NUMBER.

FUNANI KEEPS ON ACCELERATING SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST AND BY A VANISHING RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH
THE DISPERSION OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE EPS ENSEMBLE
INCREASES ONCE FUNANI CROSSES THE 30TH PARALLEL.

FUNANI STILL BENEFITS FROM THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE HARMFUL
EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH, I.E. THE INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR, SHOULD BEGIN TO BE MORE SENSIBLE TODAY. THUS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN ITS WEAKENING PHASE. MOREOVER, THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FRIDAY, AND THEN BECOME INSUFFICIENT ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM.
HOWEVER, THE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO FUNANI SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STRONG
AS IT EVACUATES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, THANKS TO BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES.=

>

2019-02-08 00:15

WTIO20 FMEE 080016
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 68.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
24.5 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
27.0 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-07 21:20

WTXS51 PGTW 072100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190207192458
2019020718 12S FUNANI 010 02 125 12 SATL 010
T000 206S 0677E 115 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD
115 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 228S 0697E 120 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD
100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 252S 0719E 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD
100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 278S 0742E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD
110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 307S 0764E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 393S 0812E 035 R034 200 NE QD 185 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-07 21:20

WTXS31 PGTW 072100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.8S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-07 20:58

WTXS51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190207192458
2019020718 12S FUNANI 010 02 125 12 SATL 010
T000 206S 0677E 115 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 228S 0697E 120 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 252S 0719E 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 278S 0742E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 307S 0764E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 393S 0812E 035 R034 200 NE QD 185 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.8S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.2S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.8S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.7S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 39.3S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 68.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 56 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
1219020718 206S 677E 115
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 20:57

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.8S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.2S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.8S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.7S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 39.3S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 68.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND
A SEMI-CLOUD FILLED BUT DEFINED 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP
THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 071725Z AMSU IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC
12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
120 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW FURTHER IMPROVES AHEAD OF
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY
TAU 48, TC 12S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY
TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 56 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z,
081500Z, AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 19:18

WTIO31 FMEE 071850 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 67.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5+/6.0/W -0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 210 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 210
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 43.1 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+.CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-07 19:18

WTIO30 FMEE 071850 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5+/6.0/W -0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 210 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 210
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 43.1 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+.CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-07 19:15

WTIO31 FMEE 071850
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 67.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5+/6.0/W -0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 210 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 210
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 43.1 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+;CI=6.0+

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1411Z ONT REVELE UN SECOND MUR DE
L'OEIL EN COURS DE CONSTITUTION. L'IMAGE AMSU DE 1725Z MONTRE QUE LE
MUR EXTERIEUR S'EST REFERME. CELA SUGGERE QU'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL MODULE ACTUELLEMENT L'INTENSITE DE FUNANI. AINSI, A
MESURE QUE LE MUR EXTERIEUR PREND LE DESSUS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
HEURES, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME VA BAISSER. POUR LE CAS DE FUNANI, LE
MODELE DE KOSSIN ET SITKOWKSI (2012) PROPOSE UNE BAISSE DE 10/15KT AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 10/15 HEURES. L'INTENSITE DE FUNANI EST DONC
D'ORES ET DEJA BAISSEE DE 5KT SANS ATTENDRE LA BAISSE DU CI.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERME DE PRA VISION AVEC DES
MODELES QUI RESTENT GLOBALEMENT EN BON ACCORD. FUNANI VA ACCA LA RER
SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU DECALAGE VERS
L'EST DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE/MOYENNE TROPO, EN S'EVACUANT VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL EXISTE PLUS DE DISPERSION PARMI LES MODELES ET
LA PRA VISION D'ENSEMBLE EPS UNE FOIS QUE LE SYSTEME A ETE EVACUE DU
DOMAINE TROPICAL, D'OA UN CA NE D'INCERTITUDE PLUS LARGE.

FUNANI PROFITE DE L'EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD A L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. PAR CONTRE,
LES EFFETS NA FASTES DE LA PRA SENCE DE CE TALWEG AVEC UNE
AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT D'OUEST DEVRAIENT SE
FAIRE PLUS SENSIBLES EN COURS DE NUIT. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LE SYSTA
ME DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT. DE PLUS,
LE CONTENU A NERGA TIQUE OCA ANIQUE EST PRA VU FAIBLIR DEMAIN PUIS
DEVENIR INSUFFISANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. DANS LE MA ME TEMPS, EN
INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES MAIS DEVRAIT TOUTEFOIS
CONSERVER DES VENTS FORTS LORS DE SON A VACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES
TEMPA RA ES GRACE AUX PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.=

>

2019-02-07 19:15

WTIO30 FMEE 071850
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5+/6.0/W -0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 210 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 210
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 43.1 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+;CI=6.0+

THE 1411Z SSMIS MW IMAGES REVEALED THAT A SECOND EYEWALL WAS BUILDING
AROUND THE FIRST EYEWALL. THE 1752Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THAT THIS OUTER
EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE IS CURRENTLY MODULATING FUNANI'S INTENSITY. THUS, AS THE OUTER
EYEWALL TAKES OVER IN THE NEXT HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN. IN
FUNANI'S CASE, KOSSIN AND SITKOWSKI (2012) MODEL SUGGEST A 10/15KT
INTENSITY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 10/15 HOURS. FUNANI'S INTENSITY HAS
THUS ALREADY BEEN DECREASED OF 5KT WITHOUT WAITING FOR THE DECREASE
IN CI.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECASTING WITH MODELS THAT
GLOBALLY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FUNANI IS TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS
FOLLOWING THE SHIFT OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL
EVENTUALLY EVACUATE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. SOME SPREAD IS
SUGGESTED AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THE EPS MEMBERS FOR
THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST, THIS EXPLAINS A LARGER UNCERTAINTY
CONE.

FUNANI BENEFITS FROM THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF
THIS TROUGH, I.E. THE INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SHOULD
BEGIN TO BE MORE SENSIBLE TONIGHT. FROM TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. MOREOVER, THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE FRIDAY, THEN BECOME INSUFFICIENT ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. HOWEVER THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AS IT EVACUATES
TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, THANKS TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.=

>

2019-02-07 18:34

WTIO20 FMEE 071834
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
23.0 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
26.0 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-07 14:22

WTXS51 PGTW 071500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190207133729
2019020712 12S FUNANI 009 02 150 11 SATL 020
T000 199S 0667E 115 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD
110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 215S 0683E 120 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 239S 0705E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 265S 0728E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 290S 0750E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD
100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 355S 0797E 050 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-07 14:22

WTXS31 PGTW 071500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.5S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-07 14:13

WTXS51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190207133729
2019020712 12S FUNANI 009 02 150 11 SATL 020
T000 199S 0667E 115 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 215S 0683E 120 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 239S 0705E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 265S 0728E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 290S 0750E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 355S 0797E 050 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.5S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.5S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.0S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.5S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
1219020712 199S 667E 115
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 14:11

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.5S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.5S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.0S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.5S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TC 12S HAS MAINTAINED A THICK EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AGREES WITH MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T6.0 (115 KTS) AND CLOSE TO A 070916Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 119 KTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD BIAS THAT IS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.
TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. TC 12S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AS IT IS PULLED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INITIALLY INCREASE AS TC 12S TAPS
INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION TO 120 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS,
DECREASING SSTS, AND DECREASING OUTFLOW AS TC 12S MOVES UNDER THE
WESTERLY JET, WILL CAUSE WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 12:48

WTIO31 FMEE 071214 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 66.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 240 SO: 200 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 190 SO: 130 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-07 12:48

WTIO30 FMEE 071214 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 66.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 190 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-07 12:48

WTIO20 FMEE 071209 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 66.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-07 12:41

WTIO31 FMEE 071214
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 66.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 240 SO: 200 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 190 SO: 130 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A PEU
EVOLUE EN IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE. LES SOMMETS SONT RESTES FROIDS ET
L'A IL BIEN DA FINI. EN REVANCHE, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 DE 0919Z
MONTRE UN A IL A RODE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST INDIQUANT QUE LE
SYSTA ME A PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT SON PIC D'INTENSITA AVANT UNE DA
GRADATION DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES A PARTIR DE CETTE NUIT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PRA VISION AVEC DES MODELES QUI RESTENT
EN BON ACCORD, REPRA SENTANT CORRECTEMENT LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS
CENTRES D'ACTION.
FUNANI VA ACCA LA RER SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST, EN RA PONSE
AU DA CALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST SUIVI D'UN RECOURBEMENT GRADUEL
VERS LE SUD PLUS TARD DANS LA PA RIODE LORSQUE LE SYSTA ME SERA A
VACUE DU DOMAINE TROPICAL. IL EXISTE PLUS DE DISPERSION PARMI LES
MODELES ET LA PRA VISION D'ENSEMBLE EPS POUR CETTE PORTION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE D'OA LE CA NE D'INCERTITUDE PLUS LARGE.

FUNANI PROFITE DE L'EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD A L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. PAR CONTRE, LES EFFETS NA
FASTES DE LA PRA SENCE DE CE TALWEG AVEC UNE AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT D'OUEST DEVRAIT SE FAIRE SENTIR DES
CETTE NUIT. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT. DE PLUS, LE CONTENU A NERGA TIQUE OCA ANIQUE EST
PRA VU FAIBLIR DEMAIN PUIS DEVENIR INSUFFISANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI.
DANS LE MA ME TEMPS, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE
SYSTA ME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES. IL
DEVRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER DES VENTS FORTS LORS DE SON A VACUATION
VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPA RA ES.=

>

2019-02-07 12:41

WTIO30 FMEE 071214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 66.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 190 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, EYE PATTERN HAS NOT EVOLVED IN INFRA-RED
IMAGERY. TOP CLOUDS ARE REMAINED COLD WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE.
HOWEVER, 0919Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ERODED EYE FEATURE
WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
REACHED ITS INTENSITY PEAK BEFORE THE DETERIORATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS NIGHT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECASTING WITH MODELS THAT REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, CORRECTLY REPRESENTING THE SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION. FUNANI
IS TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS FOLLOWING THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL SOUTHWARDS TURN LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT IN THE MID-LAT.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND AMONGST
THE EPS MEMBERS, FOR THAT PART OF THE FORECAST ... SO THE LARGER
UNCERTAINTY CONE.

FUNANI TAKES BENEFIT FROM THE EXCELLENT POLERWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE HARMFUL
EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN INCREASING WESTERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR SHOULD BEGIN THIS NIGHT. SO, FROM TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. MOREOVER, THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS
FORECASTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY AND BECOME INSUFFICIENT SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. HOWEVER THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AS IT EVACUATES
TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES.=

>

2019-02-07 12:06

WTIO20 FMEE 071209
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 66.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
24.4 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-07 08:31

WTXS51 PGTW 070900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190207072722
2019020706 12S FUNANI 008 02 130 10 SATL 020
T000 190S 0661E 105 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD
095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 206S 0677E 115 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 227S 0696E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD
100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 253S 0719E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 277S 0742E 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD
100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 341S 0787E 050 R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-07 08:31

WTXS31 PGTW 070900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-07 08:26

WTXS51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190207072722
2019020706 12S FUNANI 008 02 130 10 SATL 020
T000 190S 0661E 105 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 206S 0677E 115 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 227S 0696E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 253S 0719E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 277S 0742E 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 341S 0787E 050 R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.7S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.3S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.7S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 34.1S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
1219020706 190S 661E 105
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 08:25

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.7S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.3S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.7S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 34.1S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A THICK EYEWALL SURROUNDING A PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 070455Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 107 KTS AND IS BELOW THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS THAT IS
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM
WATERS (30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC 12S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AS TC 12S TAPS INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KTS BY TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, TC 12S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 07:00

WTIO31 FMEE 070700 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 66.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 290 SO: 200 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 44.5 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-07 07:00

WTIO30 FMEE 070700 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 66.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 290 SW: 200 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 44.5 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

>

2019-02-07 06:57

WTIO31 FMEE 070700
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 66.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 290 SO: 200 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 44.5 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, FUNANI A CONNU UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION. L'OEIL S'EST RECHAUFFE ET LES SOMMETS SE SONT BIEN
REFRROIDIS. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITA EST EN ACCORD AVEC L'ADT DU
CIMSS.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION AVEC DES MODELES QUI RESTENT
EN BON ACCORD, REPRESENTANT CORRECTEMENT LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS
CENTRES D'ACTION.
FUNANI VA ACCELERER SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST, EN REPONSE AU
DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST SUIVI D'UN RECOURBEMENT GRADUEL
VERS LE SUD PLUS TARD DANS LA PERIODE LORSQUE LE SYSTEME SERA EVACUE
DU DOMAINE TROPICAL. IL EXISTE PLUS DE DISPERSION PARMI LES MODELES
ET LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EPS POUR CETTE PORTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
D'OU LE CONE D'INCERTITUDE PLUS LARGE.

FUNANI PROFITE DE L'EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD A L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. PAR CONTRE, LES EFFETS
NEFASTE DE LA PRESENCE DE CE TALWEG AVEC UNE AUGMENTATION DU
CISALLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT D'OUEST DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT SE
FAIRE SENTIR DES CETTE NUIT. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT TANDIS QU'IL S'EVACUE VERS LE
LATITUDES TROPICALES. CEPENDANT, LE VITESSE IMPORTANTE DE DEPLACEMENT
DU SYSTEME PARTICIPERA AU MAINTIENT DE VENTS FORTS DANS LA PARTIE
NORD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION. A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, EN INTERAGISSANT
AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.=

>

2019-02-07 06:57

WTIO30 FMEE 070700
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 66.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 290 SW: 200 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 44.5 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FUNAMI HAS STRENGTHENED AGAIN. EYE HAS
WARMED UP AND CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED DOWN. ASSESSMENT INTENSITY IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADT FROM CIMSS.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECASTING WITH MODELS THAT REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, CORRECTLY REPRESENTING THE SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION. FUNANI
IS TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS FOLLOWING THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL SOUTHWARDS TURN LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT IN THE MID-LAT.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND AMONGST
THE EPS MEMBERS, FOR THAT PART OF THE FORECAST ... SO THE LARGER
UNCERTAINTY CONE.

FUNANI TAKES BENEFIT FROM THE EXCELLENT POLERWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE HARMFULL
EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN INCREASING WESTERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR SHOULD BEGIN THIS NIGHT. FROM TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT EVACUATES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES.
NEVERTHELESS, FAST FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE LARGE
WINDS EXTENSION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.=

>

2019-02-07 06:17

WTIO20 FMEE 070618
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 66.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 500 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 155 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
23.0 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-07 02:07

WTXS51 PGTW 070300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190207010514
2019020700 12S FUNANI 007 02 140 08 SATL 010
T000 184S 0653E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 198S 0666E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD
110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 219S 0683E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD
110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 244S 0704E 105 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 272S 0726E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD
110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 332S 0777E 050 R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
250 NE QD 230 SE QD 165 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-07 02:07

WTXS31 PGTW 070300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.8S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-07 01:57

WTXS51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190207010514
2019020700 12S FUNANI 007 02 140 08 SATL 010
T000 184S 0653E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 198S 0666E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 219S 0683E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 244S 0704E 105 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 272S 0726E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 332S 0777E 050 R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 230 SE QD 165 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.8S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.4S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.2S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 65.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020612 175S 643E 75
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
1219020700 184S 653E 95
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 01:57

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.8S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.4S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.2S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 65.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS WRAP
TIGHTER INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A PINHOLE 10-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
IN THE 062108Z GCOM 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS AND T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER
WARM WATERS (30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW FURTHER IMPROVES AHEAD OF
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-07 01:08

WTIO31 FMEE 070100 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 65.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 290 SO: 200 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-.

>

2019-02-07 01:08

WTIO30 FMEE 070100 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 65.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 290 SW: 200 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-.

>

2019-02-07 01:06

WTIO31 FMEE 070100
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 65.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 290 SO: 200 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-.

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST MAINTENUE TOUTE LA NUIT AVEC DES
FLUCTUATIONS DANS LA DEFINITION DE L'OEIL. TOUTES LES GUIDANCES SUR
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE ONT PEU VARIEES SUGGERANT QUE
L'INTENSIFICATION OBSERVEE HIER APRES-MIDI ET HIER SOIR S'EST
TERMINEE. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 85 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ET JUSTE EN DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES.

L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU MONTRE UNE EXCELLENTEDUIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
DANS LES DEMI-CERCLES EST ET SUD MAIS UN FLUX SORTANT REDUIT OU
CONTRARIE PAR UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST MODEREE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION AVEC DES MODELES QUI RESTENT
EN BON ACCORD, REPRESENTANT CORRECTEMENT LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS
CENTRES D'ACTION.
FUNANI VA ACCELERER SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST, EN REPONSE AU
DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST SUIVI D'UN RECOURBEMENT GRADUEL
VERS LE SUD PLUS TARD DANS LA PERIODE LORSQUE LE SYSTEME SERA EVACUE
DU DOMAINE TROPICAL. IL EXISTE PLUS DE DISPERSION PARMI LES MODELES
ET LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EPS POUR CETTE PORTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
D'OU LE CONE D'INCERTITUDE PLUS LARGE.

MEME SI CELA N'EST PAS INDIQUE DANS LA PREVISION, IL EST POSSIBLE QUE
FUNANI GAGNE ENCORE UN PEU EN INTENSITE AUJOURD'HUI AVANT
L'AUGMENTATION ATTENDUE D'ICI CE SOIR DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DE
L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO LIE A L'ARRIVEE DU PROFOND TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. SON ACTION SERA ATTENUE PAR L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, MAIS DEVRAIT NEANMOINS ABOUTIR A AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME. CEPENDANT, LE VITESSE IMPORTANTE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
PARTICIPERA AU MAINTIENT DE VENTS FORTS DANS LA PARTIE NORD-EST DE LA
CIRCULATION.
A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.=

>

2019-02-07 01:06

WTIO30 FMEE 070100
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 65.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 290 SW: 200 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-.

AN EYE PATTERN HAS MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT LONG WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS
REGARDING ITS DEFINITION. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS LEVELED OFF AND
THE INTENSITY IS REMAINED AT 85 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A LITTLE UNDER OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

WV IMAGERY SHOW EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVEGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLES BUT REDUCED OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
UNDER A MODERATE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECASTING WITH MODELS THAT REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, CORRECTLY REPRESENTING THE SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION. FUNANI
IS TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS FOLLOWING THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL SOUTHWARDS TURN LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT IN THE MID-LAT.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND AMONGST
THE EPS MEMBERS, FOR THAT PART OF THE FORECAST ... SO THE LARGER
UNCERTAINTY CONE.

ALTHOUGH NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST, FUNANI MAY STILL GAIN SOME
STYRENGTH LATER TODAY BEFORE THE WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION. ITS
INFLUENCE SHOULD BE ATTENUATED BY THE FAST SOUTHEASTWARDS MOTION, BUT
IT SHOULD HOWEVER START A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. NEVERTHELESS, FAST
FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE LARGE WINDS EXTENSION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
FROM THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.=

>

2019-02-07 00:46

WTIO20 FMEE 070027 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 65.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 470 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 155 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
20.1 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
21.8 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-07 00:25

WTIO20 FMEE 070027
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 65.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 470 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 155 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
20.1 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
21.8 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-06 22:54

WTXS31 PGTW 062100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.1S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.8S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.8S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 39.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 65.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED
TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY
OUTLINED 12-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP
PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 1425Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM
WATERS (30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
110 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW FURTHER IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. CONCURRENTLY, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PEAK INTENSITY IN
REMARKS.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 21:12

WTXS51 PGTW 062100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190206193756
2019020618 12S FUNANI 006 02 120 06 SATL 010
T000 178S 0648E 090 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 190S 0659E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD
110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 208S 0673E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD
110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 231S 0693E 105 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 258S 0717E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD
110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 318S 0761E 060 R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
230 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 155 NW QD
T096 397S 0814E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
265 NE QD 225 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

>

2019-02-06 21:06

WTXS31 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-06 21:05

WTXS51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190206193756
2019020618 12S FUNANI 006 02 120 06 SATL 010
T000 178S 0648E 090 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 190S 0659E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 208S 0673E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 231S 0693E 105 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 258S 0717E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 318S 0761E 060 R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 155 NW QD
T096 397S 0814E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 265 NE QD 225 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.1S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.8S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.8S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 39.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 65.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 161S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 641E 50
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020606 170S 641E 55
1219020612 175S 643E 65
1219020612 175S 643E 65
1219020612 175S 643E 65
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
1219020618 178S 648E 90
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 20:52

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.1S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.8S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.8S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 39.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 65.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED
TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY
OUTLINED 12-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP
PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 1425Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD BIAS. TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (30 CELSIUS) ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW FURTHER IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. CONCURRENTLY, TC 12S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 19:11

WTIO31 FMEE 061849 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 64.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 180
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 180 SO: 90 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 39.2 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+.

>

2019-02-06 19:11

WTIO30 FMEE 061849 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 64.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 180
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 180 SW: 90 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 39.2 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+.

>

2019-02-06 19:08

WTIO31 FMEE 061849
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 64.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 180
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 180 SO: 90 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 39.2 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+.

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER DURANT LA SOIREE
AVEC DES SOMMETS DE PLUS EN PLUS FROIDS CEINTURANT UN OEIL
GLOBALEMENT BIEN DEFINI MALGRE QUELQUES FLUCTUATIONS DE DEFINITION.
L'ALLURE GLOBALE EST MAINTENANT ASSEZ IMPRESSIONNANTE. L'INTENSITE
INITIALE EST MISE A 85 KT EN SE BASANT SUR LES DIFFERENTES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

FUNANI A PRIS UNE COMPOSANTE FRANCHEMENT PLUS SUD-EST AU COURS DES
DERNIERES 6 HEURES ET C'EST UNE BONNE NOUVELLE POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION AVEC DES MODELES QUI RESTENT
EN BON ACCORD, REPRESENTANT CORRECTEMENT LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS
CENTRES D'ACTION.
FUNANI VA ACCELERER SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST, EN REPONSE AU
DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST SUIVI D'UN RECOURBEMENT GRADUEL
VERS LE SUD PLUS TARD DANS LA PERIODE LORSQUE LE SYSTEME SERA EVACUE
DU DOMAINE TROPICAL.

MEME SI CELA N'EST PAS INDIQUE DANS LA PREVISION, IL EST POSSIBLE QUE
FUNANI GAGNE ENCORE UN PEU EN INTENSITE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI 12UTC EN PASSANT AU SUD DE 20AOSUD, LE CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST LIE A L'ARRIVEE DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT DEVENIR
MODERE A FORT, SON ACTION SERA ATTENUE PAR L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME
EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, MAIS DEVRAIT NEANMOINS ABOUTIR A AFFAIBLIR
LE SYSTEME. CEPENDANT, LE VITESSE IMPORTANTE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME PARTICIPERA AU MAINTIENT DE VENTS FORTS DANS LA PARTIE
NORD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION.
A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.=

>

2019-02-06 19:08

WTIO30 FMEE 061849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 64.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 180
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 180 SW: 90 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 39.2 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+.

THE EYE PATTERN OF FUNANI HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
COOLING CLOUD TOPS THAT SURROUNDING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED EYE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS ARE OBSERVED IN THE EYE DEFINITION BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT BASED ON
A BLENDING OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

FUNANI SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN A MORE SOUTH-EASTWARDS TURN DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS ANF THIS SEEMS SOME RATHER GOOD NEWS FOR RODRIGUES
ISLAND.
NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECASTING WITH MODELS THAT REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, CORRECTLY REPRESENTING THE SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION. FUNANI
IS TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS FOLLOWING THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL SOUTHWARDS TURN LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT IN THE MID-LAT.

ALTHOUGH NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST, FUNANI MAY STILL GAIN SOME
STYRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TOMORROW, THE WESTERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONG. ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE ATTENUATED BY THE FAST SOUTHEASTWARDS
MOTION, BUT IT SHOULD HOWEVER START A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
NEVERLESS, HIGH FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE LARGE WINDS
EXTENSION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
FROM THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.=

>

2019-02-06 18:40

WTIO20 FMEE 061837 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 64.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
19.3 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-02-06 18:37

WTIO20 FMEE 061837
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNANI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 64.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
19.3 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
21.2 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-06 14:15

WTXS51 PGTW 061500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190206132622
2019020612 12S FUNANI 005 02 165 07 SATL 020
T000 175S 0644E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
085 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 186S 0653E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 201S 0665E 095 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 221S 0682E 105 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 248S 0706E 105 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD
120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 304S 0760E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD
120 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

>

2019-02-06 14:15

WTXS31 PGTW 061500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-06 14:04

WTXS51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190206132622
2019020612 12S FUNANI 005 02 165 07 SATL 020
T000 175S 0644E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 186S 0653E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 201S 0665E 095 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 221S 0682E 105 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 248S 0706E 105 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 304S 0760E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.1S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.1S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.8S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.4S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 162S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 640E 50
1219020606 168S 642E 55
1219020606 168S 642E 55
1219020612 175S 644E 65
1219020612 175S 644E 65
1219020612 175S 644E 65
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 14:03

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.1S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.1S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.8S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.4S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION
IN AN ORGANIZING EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN MSI IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 65 KNOTS
BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KTS). A 060936Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 73 KTS REMAINS ABOVE THE JTWC
INTENSITY ESTIMATE, ALTHOUGH THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RETURNS
65 KTS AT 261145Z, IN LINE WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, VERY WARM SSTS (30
CELSIUS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
POINT SOURCE NEARBY. TC 12S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST, AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES AND AS OUTFLOW
ADDITIONALLY TAPS INTO POLEWARD FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AT TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 48,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH AFTER TAU 48 AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72, STILL AS A
STRONG SYSTEM WITH EXPANSIVE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND
071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 12:48

WTIO31 FMEE 061240 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 64.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 38.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+.

>

2019-02-06 12:48

WTIO30 FMEE 061240 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 64.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/07 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 38.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+.

>

2019-02-06 12:45

WTIO31 FMEE 061240
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 64.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 38.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+.

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL DE FUNANI S'EST CONSOLIDE, SE
PRESENTANT TEMPORAIREMENT UN PEU MIEUX DEFINI, DANS UN CDO DEVENANT
DE PLUS EN PLUS SYMETRIQUE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION AVEC DES MODELES QUI RESTENT
EN BON ACCORD, REPRESENTANT CORRECTEMENT LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS
CENTRES D'ACTION.
FUNANI A COMMENCE A ACCELERER EN ORIENTANT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST, EN REPONSE AU DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST. LE PROFOND
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES OUVRE AINSI UN CANAL D'EVACUATION VERS
LE SUD-EST A PARTIR DE JEUDI EN FAVORISANT L'ACCELERATION DE FUNANI
QUI PLONGE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
ATMOSPHERIQUES ET OCEANIQUES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES JUSQU'A DEMAIN.
L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE TRES BONNE COTE EQUATORIALE ET
UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT PERSISTE ENCORE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 12/24H.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI 12UTC EN PASSANT AU SUD DE 20AOSUD, LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST LIE A L'ARRIVEE DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIT DEVENIR MODERE A FORT, SON ACTION SERA ATTENUE PAR
L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, MAIS DEVRAIT
NEANMOINS ABOUTIR A AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. CEPENDANT, LE VITESSE
IMPORTANTE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME PARTICIPERA AU MAINTIENT DE
VENTS FORTS DANS LA PARTIE NORD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION.
A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE LAISSE FUNANI A UNE DISTANCE DE PRES DE
200KM DE L'ILE DE RODRIGUES A PARTIR DE DEMAIN. CEPENDANT DES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES COMMENCENT A CONCERNER L'ILE DES AUJOURD'HUI.=

>

2019-02-06 12:45

WTIO30 FMEE 061240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 64.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/07 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/07 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 38.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+.

DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE EYE OF FUNANI HAS CONSOLIDATED , SHOWING
TEMPORALLY A BETTER DEFINED EYE, WITHIN A CDO BECOMING MORE
SYMETRICAL.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECASTING WITH MODELS THAT REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, CORRECTLY REPRESENTING THE SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION.
FUNANI HAS BEGAN TO ACCELERATE, TRACKING PROGRESSIVELY
SOUTH-EASTERLY FOLLOWING THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE DEEP MID-LATITUDES TROUGH THUS OPENS AN EVACUATION
CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH-EAST FROM THURSDAY BY ENCOURAGING THE
ACCELERATION OF FUNANI WHICH HEADING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

ON THIS TRACK, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
RATHER GOOD UNTIL TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD FEEDING REMAINS
VERY GOOD AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT 12/24
HOURS.
FROM THURSDAY 12UTC PASSING SOUTH OF 20AOS, THE WESTERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONG. ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE ATTENUATED BY THE ACCELERATION
SOUTHEASTERWARDS OF THE SYSTEM, BUT IT SHOULD HOWEVER ENDS TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. NEVERLESS, HIGH SPEED OF DEPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM INDUCE
PERSITANT STRONG WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
FROM THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE TRACK FORECAST LEAVES FUNANI AT A DISTANCE OF NEARLY 200KM FROM
THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES FROM TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PERIPHERAL BANDS
BEGIN TO COULD CONCERN THE ISLAND TODAY.=

>

2019-02-06 12:19

WTIO20 FMEE 061217
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 64.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCL, AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN SECTOR.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
18.7 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-06 08:46

WTXS51 PGTW 060900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190206080928
2019020606 12S FUNANI 004 02 145 04 SATL 030
T000 168S 0642E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 174S 0647E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 188S 0658E 085 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 206S 0672E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD
110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 232S 0693E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD
110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 299S 0750E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD
130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 393S 0777E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
270 NE QD 210 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

2019-02-06 08:46

WTXS31 PGTW 060900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.4S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-06 08:24

WTXS51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190206080928
2019020606 12S FUNANI 004 02 145 04 SATL 030
T000 168S 0642E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 174S 0647E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 188S 0658E 085 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 206S 0672E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 232S 0693E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 299S 0750E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 393S 0777E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 210 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.4S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.8S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.2S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 29.9S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 39.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 162S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 640E 50
1219020606 168S 642E 55
1219020606 168S 642E 55
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 08:22

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.4S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.8S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.2S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 29.9S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 39.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING
INTO AN EMERGING WARM EYE VISIBLE IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AMBIGUITIES FROM A
060518Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 55 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TOWARDS THE KNES
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 060515Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. THE FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS T4.0 (65
KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VWS, VERY WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. TC 12S IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST, AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC
12S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES AND AS OUTFLOW ADDITIONALLY TAPS INTO
POLEWARD FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, PEAKING
AT 100 KNOTS AT TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING
SSTS WILL COMBINE TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 72, TC 12S
BEGINS TO INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
SOME MARGINAL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ETT AND IS
PULLED QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE TROUGH. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 07:43

WTIO31 FMEE 060736 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 64.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 41.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-06 07:43

WTIO30 FMEE 060736 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 64.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 41.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2019-02-06 07:40

WTIO31 FMEE 060736
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/8/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 64.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 41.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

EN FIN DE NUIT, LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES ONT MONTRE LA
CONSOLIDATION DE L'OEIL EN BASSES COUCHES (SSMIS 0150Z), ET LES
PREMIERES IMAGES VISIBLES LAISSENT APPARAITRE UN OEIL MAL DEFINI DANS
UNE STRUCTURE QUI RESTE ENCORE TRES DISSYMETRIQUE (LA MAJEURE PARTIE
DE LA CONVECTION DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST).
LES DERNIERES DONNEES ASCATAL (0516Z) CONFIRME L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME ET SURTOUT LA STRUCTURE DISSYMETRIQUE EGALEMENT DES VENTS,
AVEC LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST


PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION AVEC DES MODELES QUI RESTENT
EN BON ACCORD, REPRESENTANT CORRECTEMENT LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS
CENTRES D'ACTION.
FUNANI A RALENTI EN ORIENTANT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD. ELLE EST
PREVUE COMMENCER PROGRESSIVEMENT UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST DANS LA
JOURNEE SUITE AU DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST. LE PROFOND TALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES OUVRE AINSI UN CANAL D'EVACUATION VERS LE
SUD-EST A PARTIR DE JEUDI EN FAVORISANT L'ACCELERATION DE FUNANI QUI
PLONGE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
ATMOSPHERIQUES ET OCEANIQUES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES JUSQU'A JEUDI.
L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE TRES BONNE COTE EQUATORIALE ET
UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT PERSISTE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H.

CEPENDANT AVEC DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT MAXIMAUX ASSEZ IMPORTANTES ET
UNE DISSYMETRIE ENCORE MARQUEE ENTRE LE DEMI-CERCLE EST ET OUEST,
L'INTENSIFICATION NE POURRA QU'ETRE PROGRESSIVE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI 18UTC EN PASSANT AU SUD DE 20AOSUD, LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST LIE A L'ARRIVEE DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIT DEVENIR MODERE A FORT, SON ACTION SERA ATTENUE PAR
L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, MAIS DEVRAIT
NEANMOINS ABOUTIR A FAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, EN
INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE LAISSE FUNANI A UNE DISTANCE DE PRES DE
200KM DE L'ILE DE RODRIGUES A PARTIR DE DEMAIN. CEPENDANT DES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES POURRAIENT CONCERNER L'ILE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE CE
MERCREDI.=

>

2019-02-06 07:40

WTIO30 FMEE 060736
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 64.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/09 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 41.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

AT THE END OF THE NIGHT, LAST MICROWAVES DATA SHOW THE CONSOLIDATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL EYE (SSMIS 0150Z), AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A ILL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN A STRUCTURES OF CONVECTION
REMAINING VERY DISSYMETRICAL (MAIN CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CERCLE).
LAST ASCATAL DATA CONFIRM THE INTENSIFICATION, AND ALSO THE
DISSYMETRY OF THE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION.

CONVECTION CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AROUND THE CENTRE, DEFINING A
CENTRAL EMBEDDED IN THE MASS PATTERN FOR THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
FUNANI. WITH A CENTRE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE CDO, THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 45KT, DUE TO THE
LACK OF RECENT ASCAT OR MICROWAVE DATA. THE OLD ASCAT AND MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGEST A FAIRLY WIDE WIND STRUCTURE THAT SEEMS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY CONTRACTING.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECASTING WITH MODELS THAT REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, CORRECTLY REPRESENTING THE SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION.
FUNANI HAS SLOWED DOWN SOUTHWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH-EASTERLY TODAY FOLLOWING THE SHIFTING OF THE
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE DEEP MID-LATITUDES TROUGH THUS
OPENS AN EVACUATION CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH-EAST FROM THURSDAY BY
ENCOURAGING THE ACCELERATION OF FUNANI WHICH HEADING TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES.

ON THIS TRACK, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
RATHER GOOD UNTIL THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD FEEDING REMAINS
VERY GOOD AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH FAIRLY LARGE MAXIMUM WIND EXTENSIONS AND A
FAIRLY MARKED ASYMMETRY BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
THE INTENSIFICATION CAN ONLY BE GRADUAL. FROM THURSDAY 18UTC PASSING
SOUTH OF 20AOS, THE WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
ATTENUATED BY THE ACCELERATION SOUTHEASTERWARDS OF THE SYSTEM, BUT IT
SHOULD HOWEVER ENDS TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM THE END OF THE WEEK,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE TRACK FORECAST LEAVES FUNANI AT A DISTANCE OF NEARLY 200KM FROM
THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES FROM TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PERIPHERAL BANDS
COULD CONCERN THE ISLAND TODAY.=

>

2019-02-06 06:35

WTIO20 FMEE 060636
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 64.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
17.8 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
19.1 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-06 02:17

WTXS51 PGTW 060300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190206012109
2019020600 12S FUNANI 003 02 225 04 SATL 060
T000 165S 0640E 050 R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 172S 0639E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD
080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 180S 0647E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD
100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 197S 0659E 095 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 219S 0677E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD
130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 275S 0721E 095 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD
120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 350S 0747E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 350 NE QD 250 SE QD
140 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

2019-02-06 02:17

WTXS31 PGTW 060300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.2S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-06 01:55

WTXS51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190206012109
2019020600 12S FUNANI 003 02 225 04 SATL 060
T000 165S 0640E 050 R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 172S 0639E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 180S 0647E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 197S 0659E 095 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 219S 0677E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 275S 0721E 095 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 350S 0747E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 350 NE QD 250 SE QD 140 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.2S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.0S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.7S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.5S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.0S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 64.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 052332Z
SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, VERY
WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. TC FUNANI IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE EAST. TC FUNANI IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES AND
BECOMES ENHANCED BY A TAP INTO THE POLEWARD FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIVERGENT
TROUGH, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AT TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48, INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO PUT THE SYSTEM ON A WEAKENING TREND. BY
TAU 72, TC FUNANI BEGINS TO INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALOFT AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96, AS IT GAINS COLD CORE
BAROCLINIC TRAITS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH SOME
MARGINAL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF DEFINING THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 162S 643E 45
1219020600 165S 640E 50
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 01:54

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.2S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.0S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.7S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.5S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.0S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 64.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 052332Z
SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 55
KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, VERY
WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. TC FUNANI IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE EAST. TC FUNANI IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT IN RESPONSE TO
THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC 12S IS EXPECTED
TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES
AND
BECOMES ENHANCED BY A TAP INTO THE POLEWARD FLOW AHEAD OF THE
DIVERGENT
TROUGH, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AT TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48, INCREASING
VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO PUT THE SYSTEM ON A WEAKENING TREND.
BY
TAU 72, TC FUNANI BEGINS TO INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALOFT AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT).
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96, AS IT GAINS COLD
CORE
BAROCLINIC TRAITS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
SOME
MARGINAL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF DEFINING THE
WESTERN
AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC FORECAST
LIES CLOSE
TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z,
062100Z AND
070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-06 00:59

WTIO31 FMEE 060034 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/8/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 63.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 36.7 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2019-02-06 00:59

WTIO30 FMEE 060034 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 63.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/07 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 36.7 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2019-02-06 00:56

WTIO31 FMEE 060034
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/8/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 63.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 36.7 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, LA CONVECTION A CONTINUE DE SE RENFORCER AUTOUR
DU CENTRE, DEFINISSANT UNE CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE
POUR LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNANI. AVEC UN CENTRE QUI SE
TROUVE DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST DU CDO, L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET
D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 45KT, A DEFAUT DE DISPOSER DE
DONNEES ASCAT OU MICRO-ONDES RECENTES. LES ANCIENNES DONNEES ASCAT ET
MICRO-ONDES LAISSENT PENSER A UNE STRUCTURE DE VENT ASSEZ LARGE QUI
SEMBLE AVOIR DU MAL A SE CONTRACTER.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION AVEC DES MODELES QUI RESTENT
EN BON ACCORD, REPRESENTANT CORRECTEMENT LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS
CENTRES D'ACTION. FUNANI PRESENTE ENCORE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST AVANT DE COMMENCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES SUITE AU DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST. LE
PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES OUVRE AINSI UN CANAL
D'EVACUATION VERS LE SUD-EST A PARTIR DE JEUDI EN FAVORISANT
L'ACCELERATION DE FUNANI QUI PLONGE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
ATMOSPHERIQUES ET OCEANIQUES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES JUSQU'A JEUDI.
L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE TRES BONNE COTE EQUATORIALE ET
UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT PERSISTE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H. CEPENDANT AVEC DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT MAXIMAUX ASSEZ
IMPORTANTES ET UNE DISSYMETRIE ENCORE MARQUEE ENTRE LE DEMI-CERCLE
EST ET OUEST, L'INTENSIFICATION NE POURRA QU'ETRE PROGRESSIVE. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI 18UTC EN PASSANT AU SUD DE 20AOSUD, LE CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST LIE A L'ARRIVEE DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT DEVENIR
MODERE A FORT ET AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, EN
INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE LAISSE FUNANI A UNE DISTANCE DE PRES DE
200KM DE L'ILE DE RODRIGUES A PARTIR DE DEMAIN. CEPENDANT DES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES POURRAIENT CONCERNER L'ILE EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE CE
MERCREDI.=

>

2019-02-06 00:56

WTIO30 FMEE 060034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 63.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/07 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/09 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/10 00 UTC: 36.7 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE NIGHT, CONVECTION CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AROUND THE
CENTRE, DEFINING A CENTRAL EMBEDDED IN THE MASS PATTERN FOR THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FUNANI. WITH A CENTRE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
SECTOR OF THE CDO, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF
ABOUT 45KT, DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT ASCAT OR MICROWAVE DATA. THE
OLD ASCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST A FAIRLY WIDE WIND STRUCTURE
THAT SEEMS TO HAVE DIFFICULTY CONTRACTING.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECASTING WITH MODELS THAT REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, CORRECTLY REPRESENTING THE SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION. FUNANI
STILL HAS A SOUTHWEST TRACK BEFORE STARTING A SOUTH-EASTERLY TURN
FOLLOWING THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
DEEP MID-LATITUDES TROUGH THUS OPENS AN EVACUATION CHANNEL TO THE
SOUTH-EAST FROM THURSDAY BY ENCOURAGING THE ACCELERATION OF FUNANI
WHICH HEADING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

ON THIS TRACK, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
RATHER GOOD UNTIL THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD FEEDING REMAINS
VERY GOOD AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH FAIRLY LARGE MAXIMUM WIND EXTENSIONS AND A
FAIRLY MARKED ASYMMETRY BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
THE INTENSIFICATION CAN ONLY BE GRADUAL. FROM THURSDAY 18UTC PASSING
SOUTH OF 20AOS, THE WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM
THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE TRACK FORECAST LEAVES FUNANI AT A DISTANCE OF NEARLY 200KM FROM
THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES FROM TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PERIPHERAL BANDS
COULD CONCERN THE ISLAND AT THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.=

>

2019-02-06 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 060011
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 63.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
17.5 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
18.7 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-05 21:04

WTXS51 PGTW 052100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190205192753
2019020518 12S FUNANI 002 01 210 06 SATL 030
T000 162S 0643E 045 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 168S 0641E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 176S 0644E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD
090 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 190S 0654E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 209S 0669E 110 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD
130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 265S 0713E 100 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD
120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 347S 0747E 065 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
140 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 320 NE QD 270 SE QD
190 SW QD 270 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

>

2019-02-05 21:04

WTXS31 PGTW 052100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.8S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.6S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-02-05 20:48

WTXS51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190205192753
2019020518 12S FUNANI 002 01 210 06 SATL 030
T000 162S 0643E 045 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 168S 0641E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 176S 0644E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 190S 0654E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 209S 0669E 110 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 265S 0713E 100 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 347S 0747E 065 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 320 NE QD 270 SE QD 190 SW QD 270 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.8S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.6S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.9S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.5S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.7S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 157S 646E 35
1219020518 162S 643E 45
NNNN

>

2019-02-05 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.8S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.6S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.9S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.5S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.7S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.
A 051439Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) SHOWS A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A CYAN RING, WHICH TYPICALLY SIGNALS AN
IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. BASED ON THE MI, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE,
CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
FIMP. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST (30C). TC FUNANI IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL REORIENT THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT VENTING, TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. AFTER TAU
60, TC 12S SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VWS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER TAU 96, TC FUNANI WILL REMAIN A STRONG COLD-
CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-02-05 18:55

WTIO31 FMEE 051840 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/8/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 64.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

>

2019-02-05 18:55

WTIO30 FMEE 051840 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 64.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/06 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

>

2019-02-05 18:53

WTIO31 FMEE 051840
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/8/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 64.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST BIEN RENFORCEE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE, LAISSANT ENCORE UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE
INCURVEE. A 16UTC, LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIGUE MAURICIEN A BAPTISE LA
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNANI. EN L'ABSENCE DE PASSE ASCAT SUR LE
SYSTEME, IL N'EST PAS POSSIBLE D'ESTIMER EXACTEMENT LES VENTS
MAXIMAUX MAIS L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK DE 3.0 PERMET DE VALIDER DES VENTS
DE L'ORDRE DE 35KT, VOIRE PLUS AU VU DE LA DERNIERE PASSE AMSU-B DE
1700UTC.

LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT TOUJOURS EN BON ACCORD SUR LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE, REPRESENTANT CORRECTEMENT LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS
CENTRES D'ACTION. LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNANI CONSERVE DONC
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PENDANT ENCORE 6H AVANT DE
COMMENCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SUITE AU DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE
VERS L'EST. LE PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES OUVRE AINSI UN
CANAL D'EVACUATION VERS LE SUD-EST A PARTIR DE JEUDI EN FAVORISANT
L'ACCELERATION DE FUNANI QUI PLONGE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
ATMOSPHERIQUES ET OCEANIQUES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES JUSQU'A JEUDI.
L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE TRES BONNE COTE EQUATORIALE ET
UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT. CEPENDANT AVEC DES
EXTENSIONS DE VENT MAXIMAUX ASSEZ IMPORTANTES ET UNE DISSYMETRIE
ASSEZ MARQUE ENTRE LE DEMI-CERCLE EST ET OUEST, L'INTENSIFICATION NE
POURRA QU'ETRE PROGRESSIVE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI 18UTC EN PASSANT AU SUD
DE 20AOSUD, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST LIE A L'ARRIVEE DU PROFOND TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT DEVENIR MODERE A FORT ET AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.=

>

2019-02-05 18:53

WTIO30 FMEE 051840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI)

2.A POSITION 2019/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 64.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/06 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/07 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/08 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/08 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
THE CENTRE, LEAVING A CURVED BAND PATTERN. AT 16UTC, THE MAURITIAN
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE NAMED THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FUNANI. IN
THE ABSENCE OF AN ASCAT SWATH OVER THE SYSTEM, IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
ESTIMATE EXACTLY THE MAXIMUM WINDS BUT THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.0
ALLOWS TO VALIDATE WINDS OF ABOUT 35KT OR EVEN MORE, IN VIEW OF THE
1700UTC AMSU-B SWATH.

THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALWAYS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK
PREDICTION, CORRECTLY REPRESENTING THE SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION. THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FUNANI THEREFORE MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS BEFORE STARTING A SOUTH-EASTERLY TURN
FOLLOWING THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
DEEP MID-LATITUDES TROUGH THUS OPENS AN EVACUATION CHANNEL TO THE
SOUTH-EAST FROM THURSDAY BY ENCOURAGING THE ACCELERATION OF FUNANI
WHICH HEADING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

ON THIS TRACK, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
RATHER GOOD UNTIL THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD FEEDING REMAINS
VERY GOOD AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER, WITH FAIRLY LARGE
MAXIMUM WIND EXTENSIONS AND A FAIRLY MARKED ASYMMETRY BETWEEN THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE INTENSIFICATION CAN ONLY BE
GRADUAL. FROM THURSDAY 18UTC PASSING SOUTH OF 20AOS, THE WESTERN
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONG AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM THE END OF THE WEEK,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.=

>

2019-02-05 18:33

WTIO20 FMEE 051806
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 05/02/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNANI) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 64.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
17.1 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
18.1 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-02-05 14:24

WTXS51 PGTW 051500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190205132238
2019020512 12S TWELVE 001 01 235 09 SATL 030
T000 156S 0645E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 164S 0638E 045 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 170S 0637E 060 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 182S 0644E 075 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 200S 0657E 090 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 249S 0695E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD
120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 319S 0746E 070 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
150 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 270 SE QD
170 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 64.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-05 14:24

WTXS31 PGTW 051500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
051351ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 64.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 64.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.4S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.0S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-02-05 14:20

WTXS51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 190205132238
2019020512 12S TWELVE 001 01 235 09 SATL 030
T000 156S 0645E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 164S 0638E 045 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 170S 0637E 060 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 182S 0644E 075 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 200S 0657E 090 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 249S 0695E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 319S 0746E 070 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 270 SE QD 170 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 64.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 64.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.4S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.0S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 31.9S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
1219020400 131S 700E 20
1219020406 134S 692E 20
1219020412 138S 680E 25
1219020418 144S 671E 30
1219020500 148S 660E 30
1219020506 151S 653E 30
1219020512 156S 645E 35
NNNN

>

2019-02-05 14:20

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
051351ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 64.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 64.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.4S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.0S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 31.9S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED BANDING WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
IMPROVE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 051042Z
37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
WHICH CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 12S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH TAU 24, THE STR WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, TC 12S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 24 AS IT INTENSIFIES. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TC 12S TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. TC 12S WILL QUICKLY TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND
061500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS PGTW 042100).//
NNNN

>