Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for OWEN-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-12-04 14:25

WTPS51 PGTW 041500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181204130259
2018120412 05P OWEN 011 01 265 09 SATL 050
T000 162S 1548E 030
T012 164S 1540E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 154.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 154.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 154.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET.//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30

>

2018-12-04 14:25

WTPS31 PGTW 041500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 154.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 154.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 154.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE USING
A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 041126Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEAL A BROAD,
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ALMOST NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS HEDGED
BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T1.5-T2.5 (25-35 KTS) AND A
041042Z 50KM RESOLUTION OSCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED 20-25 KT WIND BARBS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGH
(20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA

>

2018-12-04 14:21

WTPS51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181204130259
2018120412 05P OWEN 011 01 265 09 SATL 050
T000 162S 1548E 030
T012 164S 1540E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 154.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 154.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 154.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRAC
KED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATI
ON. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET.//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40
0518120212 146S1549E 40
0518120218 152S1549E 45
0518120300 155S1552E 45
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120312 158S1562E 50
0518120312 158S1562E 50
0518120318 158S1569E 45
0518120400 160S1570E 40
0518120406 161S1557E 35
0518120412 162S1548E 30

>

2018-12-04 14:21

WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 154.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 154.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 154.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE USING
A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 041126Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEAL A BROAD,
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ALMOST NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS HEDGED
BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T1.5-T2.5 (25-35 KTS) AND A
041042Z 50KM RESOLUTION OSCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED 20-25 KT WIND BARBS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGH
(20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). TC 05P IS TRACKING
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND A STR TO THE EAST.
THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED BELOW 35 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL
REGENERATE TO 35-40 KNOTS SOMETIME AFTER TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO
MEANDER BETWEEN THE STRS. DESPITE THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, LENDING
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2018-12-04 08:51

WTPS51 PGTW 040900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181204075158
2018120406 05P OWEN 010 01 265 13 SATL 040
T000 161S 1557E 035 R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 163S 1552E 035 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 164S 1545E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 155.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 155.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.4S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

>

2018-12-04 08:51

WTPS31 PGTW 040900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 155.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 155.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.4S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

>

2018-12-04 08:47

WTPS51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181204075158
2018120406 05P OWEN 010 01 265 13 SATL 040
T000 161S 1557E 035 R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 163S 1552E 035 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 164S 1545E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 155.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 155.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.4S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRAC
KED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40
0518120212 146S1549E 40
0518120218 152S1549E 45
0518120300 155S1552E 45
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120312 158S1562E 50
0518120312 158S1562E 50
0518120318 158S1569E 45
0518120400 160S1570E 40
0518120406 161S1557E 35

>

2018-12-04 08:47

WTPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 155.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 155.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.4S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING
A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND
A 040546Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. BOTH SOURCES REVEAL A FULLY
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SMALL
SPINNER CIRCULATIONS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAKE PINPOINTING
THE LLCC MORE DIFFICULT. DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH
(15-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05P IS LOCATED BETWEEN A
PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), ONE CENTERED TO THE WEST AND
ANOTHER TO THE EAST, WITH THE ONE TO THE EAST APPEARING TO DOMINATE
THE STEERING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS TC 05P FALLING BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24,
AND RETURNING TO NEAR WARNING LEVEL BY TAU 120. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS, UNDER THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//

>

2018-12-04 03:09

WTPS51 PGTW 040300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181204014952
2018120400 05P OWEN 009 01 115 02 SATL 060
T000 159S 1570E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 162S 1569E 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 166S 1559E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 166S 1550E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 162S 1536E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.2S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-04 03:09

WTPS31 PGTW 040300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.2S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.6S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-04 02:53

WTPS51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181204014952
2018120400 05P OWEN 009 01 115 02 SATL 060
T000 159S 1570E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 162S 1569E 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 166S 1559E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 166S 1550E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 162S 1536E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.2S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.6S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.6S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.2S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 157.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 636 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40
0518120212 146S1549E 40
0518120218 152S1549E 45
0518120300 155S1552E 45
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120312 158S1562E 50
0518120312 158S1562E 50
0518120318 158S1568E 45
0518120400 159S1570E 40

>

2018-12-04 02:51

WTPS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.2S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.6S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.6S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.2S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 157.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 636 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
PREDOMINANTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW
RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS REFLECTIVE OF THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42
KNOTS. TC 05P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
ANOTHER STR LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
ROBUST AND WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS ENHANCED
BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05P
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE IT IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BUILDING AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. AS THE SYSTEM
TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL TRACK DIRECTLY INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES WITH INCREASED VWS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THE PERSISTENT VWS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT, THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD (150 NM
AT TAU 48) AND THERE ARE DISTINCT VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE NAVGEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A RE-CURVATURE
SCENARIO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48 HOWEVER NO OTHER MODELS
PROVIDE A SIMILAR SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH AN INITIAL SOUTHEAST TRACK
DIRECTION. DUE THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST, CONTRARY TO MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//

>

2018-12-03 21:33

WTPS51 PGTW 032100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181203201754
2018120318 05P OWEN 008 01 090 08 SATL 045
T000 158S 1570E 045 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 160S 1572E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 163S 1566E 035 R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 165S 1557E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 163S 1546E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-03 21:33

WTPS31 PGTW 032100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-03 21:04

WTPS51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181203201754
2018120318 05P OWEN 008 01 090 08 SATL 045
T000 158S 1570E 045 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 160S 1572E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 163S 1566E 035 R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 165S 1557E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 163S 1546E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.5S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.3S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 157.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.
//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40
0518120212 146S1549E 40
0518120218 152S1549E 45
0518120300 155S1552E 45
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120312 158S1562E 50
0518120312 158S1562E 50
0518120318 158S1570E 45

>

2018-12-03 21:04

WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.5S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.3S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 157.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
OVER TOP AND OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE
LLCC DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP AND A 031711Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 05P HAS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER STR LOCATED TO THE WEST, OVER
AUSTRALIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HOWEVER, THERE IS NO OUTFLOW DUE A
POINT SOURCE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY TAU 12, TC OWEN IS
FORECAST TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST BUILDS IN AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. AS
THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL TRACK DIRECTLY INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND INCREASED VWS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THE PERSISTENT, STRONG, VWS WILL
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. ALTHOUGH ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT THERE IS STILL LARGE VARIATION (110 NM SPREAD AT TAU
48) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. SEVERAL OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS INCLUDING UKMET AND NAVGEM FAVOR A RE-CURVATURE
SCENARIO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. THESE MODEL FIELDS
DEPICT A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION THAT FORMS TO
THE NORTHEAST BEYOND TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH AN INITIAL SOUTHEAST TRACK DIRECTION. DUE
TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//

>

2018-12-03 14:58

WTPS51 PGTW 031500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181203135614
2018120312 05P OWEN 007 01 110 03 SATL 035
T000 158S 1558E 050 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 161S 1558E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 164S 1551E 040 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 167S 1544E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 167S 1533E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:

>

2018-12-03 14:58

WTPS31 PGTW 031500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.1S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2018-12-03 14:49

WTPS51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181203135614
2018120312 05P OWEN 007 01 110 03 SATL 035
T000 158S 1558E 050 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 000 NW QD
T012 161S 1558E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 164S 1551E 040 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 167S 1544E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 167S 1533E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.1S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.7S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.7S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 155.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 579 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40
0518120212 146S1549E 40
0518120218 152S1549E 45
0518120300 155S1552E 45
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120312 158S1558E 50
0518120312 158S1558E 50

>

2018-12-03 14:49

WTPS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.1S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.7S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.7S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 155.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 579 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD (250 NM DIAMETER) MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING OVER THE LLCC AND EXTENDING POLEWARD AND EASTWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED
EIR AND A 031043Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN ELONGATED LLC WITH
THE HIGHEST WINDS CONCENTRATED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.7 (45 TO 59 KTS).
TC 05P HAS CONTINUED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
ANOTHER STR TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. ITS ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
EXTENDING TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28
CELSIUS) WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LOW AND UNFAVORABLE. AS TC 05P
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 12,
TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
700MB STR BUILDS IN AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. AS
THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL TRACK DIRECTLY INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48. ALTHOUGH ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
WESTWARD TURN, THERE IS STILL LARGE VARIATION (120 NM SPREAD AT TAU
48) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING
THAT SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GALWEM, UKMET AND NAVGEM FAVOR A
STRONG RECURVATURE AND CONTINUE THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
AFTER TAU 48; THESE MODEL FIELDS DEPICT BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECOND CIRCULATION THAT FORMS TO THE EAST AROUND TAU 60. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
GRADUAL RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND A
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
//

>

2018-12-03 09:31

WTPS51 PGTW 030900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181203075916
2018120306 05P OWEN 006 01 125 04 SATL 035
T000 157S 1555E 050 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 161S 1556E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 164S 1549E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 166S 1540E 040 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 166S 1530E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 160S 1519E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-03 09:13

WTPS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.1S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.4S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.6S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.6S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.0S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 155.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 563 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A COMPACT CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) REGION OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030600Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KTS). TC 05P HAS
CONTINUED TO MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. ITS
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH 15 TO
20 KNOTS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW EXTENDING TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 CELSIUS) WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LOW
AND UNFAVORABLE. AS TC 05P CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER THESE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KTS BY TAU 12. ALSO BY TAU 12,
TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE 700MB STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES, IT
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS LEADING TO STEADY
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. ALTHOUGH ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD RECURVATURE
SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL LARGE VARIATION (210 NM SPREAD AT TAU
72) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GALWEM AND NAVGEM BRING THE
SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST AFTER DISSIPATION; THESE MODEL FIELDS
APPEAR TO DEPICT DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A SECOND
CIRCULATION THAT FORMS TO THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE GRADUAL
RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND
040900Z.//

>

2018-12-03 09:12

WTPS51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181203075916
2018120306 05P OWEN 006 01 125 04 SATL 035
T000 157S 1555E 050 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T012 161S 1556E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T024 164S 1549E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 166S 1540E 040 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 166S 1530E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 160S 1519E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.1S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.4S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.6S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.6S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.0S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 155.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 563 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40
0518120212 146S1549E 40
0518120218 152S1549E 45
0518120300 155S1552E 45
0518120306 157S1555E 50
0518120306 157S1555E 50

>

2018-12-03 09:12

WTPS31 PGTW 030900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.1S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-03 02:17

WTPS51 PGTW 030300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181203013002
2018120300 05P OWEN 005 01 165 04 SATL 040
T000 156S 1550E 045 R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 161S 1551E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 162S 1547E 045 R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 163S 1539E 040 R034 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 164S 1530E 035 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 161S 1523E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-03 02:17

WTPS31 PGTW 030300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.2S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2018-12-03 02:05

WTPS51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181203013002
2018120300 05P OWEN 005 01 165 04 SATL 040
T000 156S 1550E 045 R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 161S 1551E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 020 NW QD
T024 162S 1547E 045 R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 163S 1539E 040 R034 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 164S 1530E 035 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 161S 1523E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.2S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.3S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.1S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40
0518120212 146S1549E 40
0518120218 152S1549E 45
0518120300 156S1550E 45

>

2018-12-03 02:04

WTPS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.2S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.3S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.1S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A COMPACT AREA OF CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND AMBIGUITIES
FROM A BULLSEYE 022316Z ASCAT PASS. A 022315Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS AGREES WITH MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), AND IS CLOSE TO A 022314Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 48 KTS. THE 022316Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 35-39 KT WIND
BARBS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER, AND SEVERAL 40-44 KT WIND BARBS;
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY A POINT SOURCE ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC
05P HAS MEANDERED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 05P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 12, TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE
700MB STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, AND
THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET, WHICH
TURNS SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS STILL LARGE
DISAGREEMENT (275 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS
OF THE TURN AMONG MODELS THAT FAVOR THE WESTWARD TRACK SCENARIO.
HWRF, GFS, AND COAMPS-GFS SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTWARD JOG
THROUGH TAU 12 THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GALWEM AND NAVGEM CONTINUE TO
PREDICT A STRONG RECURVE TOWARDS THE EQUATOR THEN AN EVENTUAL
EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NAVGEM MODEL FIELDS SHOW A CIRCULATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH, AND RESULTING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) CAUSING
THE RECURVATURE AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR NAVGEM AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED BETWEEN ECMWF AND THE OTHER
WESTWARD-TRACKING MODEL MEMBERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND
040300Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-12-02 20:24

WTPS51 PGTW 022100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181202195520
2018120218 05P OWEN 004 01 180 06 SATL 060
T000 152S 1549E 045 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 159S 1548E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 161S 1543E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 162S 1537E 045 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 163S 1531E 040 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 160S 1519E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.9S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2018-12-02 20:24

WTPS31 PGTW 022100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.9S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.1S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2018-12-02 20:16

WTPS51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181202195520
2018120218 05P OWEN 004 01 180 06 SATL 060
T000 152S 1549E 045 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 159S 1548E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T024 161S 1543E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T036 162S 1537E 045 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 163S 1531E 040 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 160S 1519E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.9S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.1S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.2S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.0S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 154.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 534 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40
0518120212 146S1549E 40
0518120218 152S1549E 45

>

2018-12-02 20:14

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.9S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.1S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.2S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.0S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 154.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 534 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BURGEONING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) COVERING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. A 021724Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS AGREES WITH THE KNES AND ABRF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A 021007Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 46 KTS, AND IS ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS).
TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SUPPORTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA.
AFTER TAU 12, TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE 700MB STR
BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TC
05P PUSHES INTO THE UPPER LEVEL COL REGION CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, AND THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE
WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET, WHICH TURNS SHARPLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. THERE IS STILL LARGE DISAGREEMENT (205 NM
SPREAD AT TAU 72) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN AMONG
MODELS THAT FAVOR THE WESTWARD TRACK SCENARIO. GFS AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE ARE EASTERN OUTLIERS, SHOWING A JOG TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 24, THEN A SHARP KINK IN THE TRACK TO A WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. GALWEM AND NAVGEM ARE NORTHWESTERN OUTLIERS
AND FURTHER RECURVE THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAVGEM MODEL FIELDS SHOW A
CIRCULATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, AND RESULTING
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) CAUSING RECURVATURE AND
EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR NAVGEM AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ECMWF, MEANWHILE, PREDICTS AN ALMOST DUE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS PLACED BETWEEN ECMWF AND THE OTHER WESTWARD-TRACKING MODEL
MEMBERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-12-02 15:14

WTPS51 PGTW 021500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181202132906
2018120212 05P OWEN 003 01 150 06 SATL 035
T000 146S 1549E 040 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 153S 1550E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 157S 1546E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 159S 1540E 045 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 160S 1533E 035 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 159S 1519E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-02 15:14

WTPS31 PGTW 021500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-02 14:32

WTPS51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181202132906
2018120212 05P OWEN 003 01 150 06 SATL 035
T000 146S 1549E 040 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 153S 1550E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 157S 1546E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD
T036 159S 1540E 045 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 160S 1533E 035 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 159S 1519E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.9S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.0S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.9S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 154.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40
0518120212 146S1549E 40

>

2018-12-02 14:31

WTPS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.9S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.0S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.9S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 154.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL (100 NM DIAMETER) MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS FLARED UP OVER THE LLCC WITHIN THE LAST 6
HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING IS WRAPPING INTO THE MASS OF CONVECTION
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 021103Z METOP-A
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED JUST ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF
T2.3 (33 KTS) BASED ON GOOD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (10-20 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
INHIBITED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SUPPORTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND A STR TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 12, TC OWEN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AS THE 700MB STR BUILDS
IN TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TC 05P PUSHES
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL COL REGION CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD RECURVATURE; HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL LARGE DISAGREEMENT (180 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72) ON THE
TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ARE EASTERN
OUTLIERS WHILE GALWEM AND UKMET ARE NORTHWESTERN OUTLIERS SHOWING A
SHARP AND IMMEDIATE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z.//

>

2018-12-02 09:23

WTPS31 PGTW 020900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.6S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.1S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.9S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.0S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 154.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL (90 NM DIAMETER) AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER;
HOWEVER, THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE BROADER
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI
AMD A 020613Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE SMALL
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED
JUST ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KTS) SUPPORTED BY A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS). TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO AN ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO A COL REGION
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM, 28-30 CELSIUS, SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P IS
NOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AN STR ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER
TAU 12, TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
AS THE 700MB STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS, UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TC 05P PUSHES INTO THE UPPER LEVEL COL
REGION CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD RECURVATURE;
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL LARGE DISAGREEMENT (175 NM SPREAD AT TAU
72) ON TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
ARE EASTWARD OUTLIERS WHILE GALWEM AND UKMET ARE NORTHWESTWARD
OUTLIERS SHOWING A SHARP AND IMMEDIATE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND AFOREMENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED TRACK DIRECTION AFTER
TAU 12 TO WESTWARD INSTEAD OF EASTWARD.//
NNNN

>

2018-12-02 09:14

WTPS31 PGTW 020900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.6S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.1S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-02 09:12

WTPS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.6S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.1S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.9S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.0S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 154.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL (90 NM DIAMETER) AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER;
HOWEVER, THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE BROADER
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI
AMD A 020613Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE SMALL
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED
JUST ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KTS) SUPPORTED BY A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS). TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO AN ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO A COL REGION
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM, 28-30 CELSIUS, SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P IS
NOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AN STR ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER
TAU 12, TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD
AS THE 700MB STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS, UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TC 05P PUSHES INTO THE UPPER LEVEL COL
REGION CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD RECURVATURE;
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL LARGE DISAGREEMENT (175 NM SPREAD AT TAU
72) ON TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
ARE EASTWARD OUTLIERS WHILE GALWEM AND UKMET ARE NORTHWESTWARD
OUTLIERS SHOWING A SHARP AND IMMEDIATE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND AFOREMENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-12-02 09:06

WTPS51 PGTW 020900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181202080412
2018120206 05P OWEN 002 01 125 04 SATL 025
T000 141S 1546E 040 R034 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 146S 1550E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 151S 1549E 045 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 156S 1544E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 159S 1536E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 160S 1523E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.6S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-02 09:04

WTPS51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181202080412
2018120206 05P OWEN 002 01 125 04 SATL 025
T000 141S 1546E 040 R034 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 146S 1550E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 151S 1549E 045 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 156S 1544E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 159S 1536E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 160S 1523E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.6S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.1S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.9S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.0S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 154.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 139S1543E 35
0518120206 141S1546E 40

>

2018-12-02 02:49

WTPS51 PGTW 020300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181202020837
2018120200 05P FIVE 001 01 200 09 SATL 060
T000 140S 1541E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 148S 1543E 045 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD
T024 153S 1545E 045 R034 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 157S 1545E 040 R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T048 160S 1540E 040 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 160S 1530E 035 R034 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 158S 1518E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.8S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-02 02:49

WTPS31 PGTW 020300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011521ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.8S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2018-12-02 02:39

WTPS51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181202020837
2018120200 05P FIVE 001 01 200 09 SATL 060
T000 140S 1541E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 148S 1543E 045 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD
T024 153S 1545E 045 R034 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 157S 1545E 040 R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T048 160S 1540E 040 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 160S 1530E 035 R034 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 158S 1518E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.8S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.0S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.8S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
0518113000 86S1556E 20
0518113006 96S1554E 25
0518113012 104S1551E 25
0518113018 110S1548E 30
0518120100 116S1545E 30
0518120106 120S1544E 30
0518120112 124S1543E 30
0518120118 131S1544E 30
0518120200 140S1541E 35

>

2018-12-02 02:36

WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011521ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.8S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.0S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.8S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS PRIMARILY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FLARING
OVER THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON A 012232Z ASCAT PASS THAT REVEALS A
SWATH OF 30 KT WINDS AND A SMALLER AREA OF 35 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER, IN THE CONVECTION. TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS
BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE
TO AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
WRAPPING, ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM, 28-30 CELSIUS, SUPPORTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY, WITH GALWEM
AND THE UKMET MODEL MOVING TC 05P TO THE EAST AFTER TAU 12, AND
NAVGEM INSCRIBING A LOOP TOWARDS THE EQUATOR THEN MOVING TC 05P EAST
AFTER TAU 96. THESE EASTWARD TRACKS CONTRAVENE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
STEMMING FROM RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 72.
GFS, ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, HWRF, AND CTCX PREDICT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INITIALLY, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF A SHARP TURN
TO WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36, STEERED BY THE RIDGING
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION UNTIL AFTER TAU 24 AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
BUILDS IN EQUATORWARD OF TC 05P, THEN TURNS TC 05P ALMOST DUE
WESTWARD. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEAR TERM
DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KTS
BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED
IN FROM HIGHER LATITUDES BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ERODE THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE EASTWARD-TRACKING
MODELS, WHICH DO NOT ACCURATELY CAPTURE THE STEERING FLOW, MAINTAIN
A HIGHER INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AND MULTIPLE FORECAST SCENARIOS PORTRAYED BY NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 011530).//

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