Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for XAVIER-18
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2018-11-07 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 070358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 110.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.11.2018 0 18.7N 110.1W 1005 27
1200UTC 07.11.2018 12 18.3N 111.5W 1007 26
0000UTC 08.11.2018 24 18.1N 113.0W 1007 25
1200UTC 08.11.2018 36 18.0N 114.2W 1009 24
0000UTC 09.11.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070358

>

2018-11-07 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 070358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 110.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.11.2018 18.7N 110.1W WEAK
12UTC 07.11.2018 18.3N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 18.1N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2018 18.0N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070358

>

2018-11-06 03:57

WTNT82 EGRR 060355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.7N 176.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.11.2018 0 7.7N 176.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 06.11.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.11.2018 0 18.9N 107.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 06.11.2018 12 19.1N 108.3W 1005 30
0000UTC 07.11.2018 24 19.1N 109.7W 1006 26
1200UTC 07.11.2018 36 18.9N 110.9W 1008 23
0000UTC 08.11.2018 48 18.7N 112.0W 1008 24
1200UTC 08.11.2018 60 18.5N 112.9W 1009 20
0000UTC 09.11.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 33.5N 34.2E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.11.2018 132 33.9N 34.4E 1014 23
0000UTC 12.11.2018 144 34.2N 34.1E 1013 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060355

>

2018-11-06 03:56

WTNT80 EGRR 060355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.7N 176.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.11.2018 7.7N 176.9W WEAK
12UTC 06.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.11.2018 18.9N 107.1W WEAK
12UTC 06.11.2018 19.1N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 19.1N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 18.9N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 18.7N 112.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2018 18.5N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 33.5N 34.2E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.11.2018 33.9N 34.4E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.11.2018 34.2N 34.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060355

>

2018-11-06 02:44

WTPZ45 KNHC 060239 RRA
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
800 PM MST MON NOV 05 2018

DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW REMAINED ABSENT IN XAVIER FOR ABOUT TWELVE
HOURS. GIVEN THE HOSTILE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR, DRY
MID-LEVELS, AND ONLY LUKEWARM WATERS TO BE ENCOUNTERED BY THE SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION WILL MAKE A COMEBACK. THEREFORE, XAVIER IS NOW
CONSIDERED TO BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

DESPITE THE LACK OF THUNDERSTORMS, XAVIER IS SHOWING A WELL-
PRONOUNCED, THOUGH SMALL, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE LAST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES. PEAK WINDS IN THE SYSTEM ARE AROUND 40 KT, ASSUMING
THAT SOME SPINDOWN HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE 45 KT OBSERVED FROM THE
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER SEVERAL HOURS AGO. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS VERY LIKELY AND XAVIER IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
5 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF XAVIER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE, PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.SHTML.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 19.1N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

>

2018-11-06 02:43

WTPZ45 KNHC 060239
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

Deep convection has now remained absent in Xavier for about twelve
hours. Given the hostile southwesterly vertical shear, dry
mid-levels, and only lukewarm waters to be encountered by the system
during the next couple of days, it is unlikely that persistent deep
convection will make a comeback. Therefore, Xavier is now
considered to be a post-tropical cyclone and this is the last
advisory to be issued by the National Hurricane Center.

Despite the lack of thunderstorms, Xavier is showing a well-
pronounced, though small, low-level circulation in the last few
visible images. Peak winds in the system are around 40 kt, assuming
that some spindown has occurred since the 45 kt observed from the
ASCAT scatterometer several hours ago. Continued gradual weakening
is very likely and Xavier is anticipated to become a remnant low by
Tuesday night and dissipate in about three days.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving west-northwestward at around
5 kt. The system should turn toward the west or west-southwest
during the next couple of days until dissipation, under the
influence of a lower tropospheric ridge north of Xavier.

For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 19.1N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

>

2018-11-06 02:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 060238 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
800 PM MST MON NOV 05 2018

...XAVIER DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
(9 KM/H). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND XAVIER IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY EVENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY XAVIER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD SUBSIDE

>

2018-11-06 02:42

WTPZ35 KNHC 060238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

...XAVIER DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h). The system is expected to turn toward the west or west-
southwest at about the same forward speed during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Xavier is
expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening and should subside
on Tuesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

>

2018-11-06 02:41

WTPZ25 KNHC 060237 RRA
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

>

2018-11-06 02:41

WTPZ25 KNHC 060237
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

>

2018-11-05 20:42

WTPZ35 KNHC 052033 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
200 PM MST MON NOV 05 2018

...XAVIER WEAKENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...
....ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 106.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST BY EARLY TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
XAVIER IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)

>

2018-11-05 20:40

WTPZ45 KNHC 052034 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
200 PM MST MON NOV 05 2018

ALL OF XAVIER'S DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATED AROUND 1500 UTC, LEAVING
A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON A PAIR OF RECENT
ASCAT PASSES OVER THE CIRCULATION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
THE SURROUNDING DRY ENVIRONMENT FINALLY APPEAR TO HAVE CUT OFF THE
PRODUCTION OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE PERSISTENT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THEREFORE, XAVIER'S DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW
HAS BEEN MOVED UP BY 24 HOURS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT
IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS
EARLY AS TONIGHT. XAVIER'S WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, LIKELY FALLING BELOW TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE
BY DAY 4.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
(300 DEGREES) AT 4 KT. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC SHOULD DRIVE THE NOW-SHALLOW
CIRCULATION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MOTION TRENDS, BUT IT
OTHERWISE LIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSE
TO THE HCCA AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 19.0N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

>

2018-11-05 20:39

WTPZ45 KNHC 052034
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

All of Xavier's deep convection dissipated around 1500 UTC, leaving
a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with embedded shower activity.
The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a pair of recent
ASCAT passes over the circulation. Strong southwesterly shear and
the surrounding dry environment finally appear to have cut off the
production of deep convection, and although intermittent bursts of
thunderstorms are still possible, it is unlikely that the
circulation will be able to produce persistent organized
convection. Therefore, Xavier's degeneration into a remnant low
has been moved up by 24 hours in the official forecast, although it
is entirely possible that it could become a post-tropical low as
early as tonight. Xavier's winds are also expected to continue to
gradually diminish, likely falling below tropical-storm-force
overnight or early Tuesday. The remnant low should then dissipate
by day 4.

The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest
(300 degrees) at 4 kt. A low-level ridge extending from northern
Mexico westward over the Pacific should drive the now-shallow
circulation west-northwestward to westward at a slightly faster
speed during the next few days. The new NHC track forecast has
been adjusted northward to account for recent motion trends, but it
otherwise lies through the middle of the guidance envelope, close
to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 19.0N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-05 20:38

WTPZ35 KNHC 052033
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

...XAVIER WEAKENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 106.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.9 West. Xavier is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and an
increase in forward speed is expected by tonight. A westward motion
is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing through Thursday. On the
forecast track, Xavier's center will continue moving farther away
from the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and
Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight and should
subside on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-05 20:37

WTPZ25 KNHC 052033 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
2100 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

>

2018-11-05 20:37

WTPZ25 KNHC 052033
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
2100 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2018-11-05 17:52

WTPZ35 KNHC 051743 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1100 AM MST MON NOV 05 2018

...XAVIER GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY SHOWERS WINDING DOWN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7
KM/H), AND AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY EARLY TUESDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

>

2018-11-05 17:48

WTPZ35 KNHC 051743
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
1100 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

...XAVIER GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY SHOWERS WINDING DOWN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 106.5 West. Xavier is
moving a little bit faster toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7
km/h), and an additional increase in forward speed is expected later
today. A westward motion is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing
through Thursday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is
expected to continue moving farther away from the southwestern coast
of Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Colima and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches
possible. This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still possible within the
warning area during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-05 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 051556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.8N 173.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.11.2018 0 7.8N 173.7W 1004 27
0000UTC 06.11.2018 12 8.1N 176.1W 1004 27
1200UTC 06.11.2018 24 8.1N 178.7W 1003 27
0000UTC 07.11.2018 36 7.7N 179.5E 1001 26
1200UTC 07.11.2018 48 7.6N 177.7E 1001 25
0000UTC 08.11.2018 60 7.7N 176.7E 997 32
1200UTC 08.11.2018 72 8.1N 175.6E 990 46
0000UTC 09.11.2018 84 8.1N 174.6E 983 53
1200UTC 09.11.2018 96 8.2N 173.8E 977 68
0000UTC 10.11.2018 108 8.2N 172.9E 977 71
1200UTC 10.11.2018 120 8.4N 171.7E 978 69
0000UTC 11.11.2018 132 9.0N 170.2E 978 69
1200UTC 11.11.2018 144 10.0N 168.3E 977 68

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 106.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.11.2018 0 18.4N 106.0W 998 42
0000UTC 06.11.2018 12 19.2N 107.1W 1002 35
1200UTC 06.11.2018 24 19.4N 108.6W 1004 30
0000UTC 07.11.2018 36 19.8N 109.9W 1005 27
1200UTC 07.11.2018 48 19.8N 111.1W 1008 23
0000UTC 08.11.2018 60 19.6N 111.8W 1008 24
1200UTC 08.11.2018 72 19.5N 112.5W 1009 21
0000UTC 09.11.2018 84 19.2N 112.5W 1010 22
1200UTC 09.11.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.9N 117.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.11.2018 0 14.9N 117.8W 1007 20
0000UTC 06.11.2018 12 14.5N 118.4W 1007 20
1200UTC 06.11.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051555

>

2018-11-05 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 051556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.8N 173.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.11.2018 7.8N 173.7W WEAK
00UTC 06.11.2018 8.1N 176.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 8.1N 178.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 7.7N 179.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 7.6N 177.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 7.7N 176.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2018 8.1N 175.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2018 8.1N 174.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.11.2018 8.2N 173.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2018 8.2N 172.9E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2018 8.4N 171.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2018 9.0N 170.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2018 10.0N 168.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 106.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.11.2018 18.4N 106.0W MODERATE
00UTC 06.11.2018 19.2N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 19.4N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 19.8N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 19.8N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 19.6N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2018 19.5N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2018 19.2N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051555

>

2018-11-05 14:53

WTPN31 PHNC 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25E (XAVIER) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.7N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.9N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.9N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.8N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.5N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 106.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 25E (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1046 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND
061600Z.//
NNNN

>

2018-11-05 14:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 051431 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
800 AM MST MON NOV 05 2018

...XAVIER INCHING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...
....BUT HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 106.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H), BUT AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A WESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST BY EARLY TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

>

2018-11-05 14:37

WTPZ45 KNHC 051432 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
800 AM MST MON NOV 05 2018

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY, BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS AGAIN
BEEN SCOURED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT, WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES. XAVIER HAS BEEN TENACIOUSLY
RESISTING THE ILL EFFECTS OF SHEAR FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER,
THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD A DRIER ENVIRONMENT
WHERE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 30-40 PERCENT. IN
THEORY, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD PUT AN
END TO DEEP CONVECTION PRODUCTION, BUT RELATIVELY WARM WATERS COULD
STILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON THE
LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW XAVIER BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN
48 HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 4.

CAUGHT WITHIN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, XAVIER IS ONLY
CREEPING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 295/3 KT. AS DEEP CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DWINDLES NEAR THE CYCLONE, THE SHALLOWER CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, IT HAS
BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS, CONTINUING

>

2018-11-05 14:36

WTPZ45 KNHC 051432
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

A burst of deep convection occurred over the low-level center
around the time of the last advisory, but that activity has again
been scoured off to the northeast due to 30 kt of southwesterly
shear. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed, and the
initial intensity remains 50 kt, which is very close to the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates. Xavier has been tenaciously
resisting the ill effects of shear for the time being. However,
the circulation will be moving westward toward a drier environment
where mid-level relative humidity values are 30-40 percent. In
theory, the combination of strong shear and drier air should put an
end to deep convection production, but relatively warm waters could
still allow the cyclone to produce intermittent bursts of shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next several days. Based on the
latest intensity guidance, no changes were made to the official
forecast, which continues to show Xavier becoming a remnant low in
48 hours and dissipating by day 4.

Caught within a break in the subtropical ridge, Xavier is only
creeping west-northwestward, or 295/3 kt. As deep convection
gradually dwindles near the cyclone, the shallower circulation is
expected to be steered westward to the south of a low-level ridge
stretching across northern Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the
previous one during the first 24 hours. After 24 hours, it has
been nudged southward toward the various consensus aids, continuing
the trend that was noted by the previous forecaster.

Even though Xavier is slowly moving away from the coast of Mexico,
inclement weather is still occurring near the coasts of Colima and
Jalisco, and tropical-storm-force winds could still be occurring
in that vicinity. Therefore, it's prudent to continue the Tropical
Storm Warning until we have confirmation that the strong winds have
shifted farther offshore.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 18.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 113.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-05 14:36

WTPZ35 KNHC 051431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

...XAVIER INCHING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 106.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 106.2 West. Xavier is
moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), but an
increase in forward speed is expected later today. A westward
motion is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing through Thursday.
On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and continue to move
farther away from the coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Colima and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches
possible. This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through midday.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-05 14:35

WTPZ25 KNHC 051431 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1500 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA... MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2018-11-05 14:35

WTPZ25 KNHC 051431
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1500 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA... MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 106.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2018-11-05 11:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 051138 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
600 AM CST MON NOV 05 2018

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
TODAY. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
COAST TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND XAVIER IS

>

2018-11-05 11:42

WTPZ35 KNHC 051138
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
600 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 106.0 West. Xavier is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is forecast
today. A westward motion is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the
coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with isolated maximum
amounts of 4 inches possible. This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-05 08:46

WTPZ45 KNHC 050841 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 AM CST MON NOV 05 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF XAVIER HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION DECREASING IN COVERAGE
AND BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY, A COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 0345 AND 0500 UTC
INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT XAVIER MAY
HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED SINCE THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM WAS BETTER DEFINED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INTENSITY WAS
ADJUSTED TO 50 KT ON THE 0600 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY, AND REMAINS
AT THAT VALUE FOR NOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. STRONG SHEAR AND AN INCREASINGLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
MASS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM TO WEAKEN FAIRLY
QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
XAVIER WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

XAVIER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR 305/3 KT. A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF XAVIER SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND THEN WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS IT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE, AND AS A
RESULT, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IT
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS OUT OF RESPECT FOR

>

2018-11-05 08:45

WTPZ45 KNHC 050841
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

The satellite presentation of Xavier has degraded somewhat
overnight, with the main area of convection decreasing in coverage
and becoming more separated from the low-level center. Somewhat
surprisingly, a couple of ASCAT passes between 0345 and 0500 UTC
indicated peak winds of around 50 kt. This suggests that Xavier may
have been slightly stronger than previously estimated since the
overall structure of the storm was better defined yesterday
afternoon and evening. Based on these data, the intensity was
adjusted to 50 kt on the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory, and remains
at that value for now. The intensity forecast reasoning remains
unchanged. Strong shear and an increasingly drier mid-level air
mass are expected to cause the tropical storm to weaken fairly
quickly over the next day or so, and the global models suggest that
Xavier will degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours.

Xavier has been moving slowly northwestward or 305/3 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge that is building to the north of Xavier should
cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, and then westward
during the next 12 to 24 hours. As the system weakens it is
forecast to move westward or west-southwestward within the
low-level flow until dissipation occurs in 3 to 4 days. The track
guidance envelope shifted somewhat southward this cycle, and as a
result, the official forecast was adjusted in that direction but it
remains to the north of the consensus models out of respect for
continuity with the previous NHC track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 18.4N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-11-05 08:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 050840 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 AM CST MON NOV 05 2018

...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
TODAY. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
COAST TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND XAVIER IS

>

2018-11-05 08:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 050840
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.9 West. Xavier is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is forecast
today. A westward motion is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the
coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with isolated maximum
amounts of 4 inches possible. This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-11-05 08:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 050839 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0900 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2018-11-05 08:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 050839
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0900 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2018-11-05 05:51

WTPZ35 KNHC 050543 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1200 AM CST MON NOV 05 2018

...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATER TODAY.

RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS

>

2018-11-05 05:47

WTPZ35 KNHC 050543
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
1200 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.8 West. Xavier is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
today, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the coast
later today.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is
forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. Isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible over Michoacan and Colima.
This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-11-05 04:00

WTNT82 EGRR 050359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 117.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.11.2018 0 13.9N 117.4W 1008 19
1200UTC 05.11.2018 12 14.0N 118.5W 1007 20
0000UTC 06.11.2018 24 14.4N 118.8W 1007 21
1200UTC 06.11.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.8N 171.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.11.2018 0 7.8N 171.1W 1004 28
1200UTC 05.11.2018 12 8.0N 174.1W 1004 24
0000UTC 06.11.2018 24 8.2N 176.5W 1004 26
1200UTC 06.11.2018 36 8.3N 179.2W 1003 27
0000UTC 07.11.2018 48 8.0N 178.8E 1001 25
1200UTC 07.11.2018 60 8.1N 177.0E 999 28
0000UTC 08.11.2018 72 8.9N 175.5E 994 38
1200UTC 08.11.2018 84 9.2N 174.1E 983 55
0000UTC 09.11.2018 96 9.4N 173.4E 977 60
1200UTC 09.11.2018 108 9.5N 172.7E 972 68
0000UTC 10.11.2018 120 9.7N 171.8E 970 69
1200UTC 10.11.2018 132 10.1N 170.7E 968 72
0000UTC 11.11.2018 144 11.1N 169.3E 961 71

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 105.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.11.2018 0 18.0N 105.5W 998 46
1200UTC 05.11.2018 12 18.3N 106.6W 1002 33
0000UTC 06.11.2018 24 18.9N 107.6W 1004 28
1200UTC 06.11.2018 36 19.5N 109.0W 1006 27
0000UTC 07.11.2018 48 20.1N 110.5W 1006 25
1200UTC 07.11.2018 60 20.3N 111.8W 1008 22
0000UTC 08.11.2018 72 20.1N 112.5W 1008 23
1200UTC 08.11.2018 84 20.0N 113.0W 1009 22
0000UTC 09.11.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.3N 144.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.11.2018 60 11.7N 144.4W 1003 24
0000UTC 08.11.2018 72 12.8N 145.5W 1003 26
1200UTC 08.11.2018 84 14.0N 147.4W 1005 25
0000UTC 09.11.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050359

>

2018-11-05 04:00

WTNT80 EGRR 050359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 117.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.11.2018 13.9N 117.4W WEAK
12UTC 05.11.2018 14.0N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 14.4N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.8N 171.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.11.2018 7.8N 171.1W WEAK
12UTC 05.11.2018 8.0N 174.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 8.2N 176.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 8.3N 179.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 8.0N 178.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 8.1N 177.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 8.9N 175.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2018 9.2N 174.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2018 9.4N 173.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.11.2018 9.5N 172.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2018 9.7N 171.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2018 10.1N 170.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2018 11.1N 169.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 105.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.11.2018 18.0N 105.5W MODERATE
12UTC 05.11.2018 18.3N 106.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.11.2018 18.9N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 19.5N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 20.1N 110.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 20.3N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 20.1N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2018 20.0N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.3N 144.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.11.2018 11.7N 144.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.11.2018 12.8N 145.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2018 14.0N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050359

>

2018-11-05 02:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 050233 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
900 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2018

...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 105.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION BY TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE COAST TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

>

2018-11-05 02:38

WTPZ45 KNHC 050234 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
900 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2018

XAVIER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, ON
THE ORDER OF 30 KT, YET APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR
NOW. IN FACT, MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD TILT
OF THE CENTER WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS SURPRISING FOR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE APPARENTLY EXPERIENCING SHEAR OF SUCH MAGNITUDE. IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. IN SPITE OF XAVIER'S
RESILIENCE TO A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, THE STRONG SHEAR
AND AN INCREASINGLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS SHOULD SOON TAKE THEIR
TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DAYS, AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

XAVIER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTH, OR A
MOTION OF 350/5 KT, TOWARD A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE
XAVIER TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
BY 3-4 DAYS, THE WEAK AND SHALLOW CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.

>

2018-11-05 02:38

WTPZ45 KNHC 050234
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

Xavier continues to be influenced by strong southwesterly shear, on
the order of 30 kt, yet appears to be maintaining its intensity for
now. In fact, microwave imagery shows only a slight eastward tilt
of the center with height which is surprising for a tropical
cyclone apparently experiencing shear of such magnitude. It is
quite possible that strong upper-level divergence over the area is
helping to maintain the strength of the storm. Dvorak intensity
estimates remain at 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB which will continue
to be used for the advisory intensity. In spite of Xavier's
resilience to a hostile atmospheric environment, the strong shear
and an increasingly drier mid-level air mass should soon take their
toll on the cyclone. The GFS and the ECMWF global models suggest
that the system will degenerate into a remnant low within a couple
of days, and this is also shown by the official forecast.

Xavier has been moving slowly and just to the west of north, or a
motion of 350/5 kt, toward a slight weakness in the mid-level flow
to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula. A ridge is
forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, and this should cause
Xavier to turn toward the west-northwest during the next day or so.
By 3-4 days, the weak and shallow cyclone is likely to move
generally westward within the low-level flow field. The official
forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the
latest dynamical model consensus track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 18.5N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.8N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 19.3N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 19.6N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 19.7N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-11-05 02:38

WTPZ25 KNHC 050233 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0300 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA... MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 105.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 105.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.8N 106.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.6N 108.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2018-11-05 02:37

WTPZ35 KNHC 050233
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 105.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 105.7 West. Xavier is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On
the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore
the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from
the coast tonight and on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. Isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible over Michoacan and Colima.
This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-11-05 02:37

WTPZ25 KNHC 050233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0300 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA... MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 105.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 105.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.8N 106.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.6N 108.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2018-11-04 23:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 042334 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
600 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2018

...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF COLIMA
AND JALISCO...
....BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 105.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION BY TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM

>

2018-11-04 23:38

WTPZ35 KNHC 042334
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
600 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF COLIMA
AND JALISCO...
...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 105.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 105.6 West. Xavier is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On
the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore
the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from
the coast tonight and on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. Isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible over Michoacan and Colima.
This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2018-11-04 20:44

WTPZ45 KNHC 042040 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2018

AFTER BEING SHEARED OFF THIS MORNING, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER XAVIER'S CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 3.0, AND
THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE IS 43 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
THEREFORE REMAINS 45 KT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING XAVIER, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY APPEARS TO BE PRODUCING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT TROUGH DISSIPATING AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING UNIDIRECTIONAL WITHIN 12 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF THE
DIVERGENCE AND ALLOW THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR TO
TAKE OVER. AS A RESULT, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND XAVIER MAY CEASE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION (AND THUS BECOME A REMNANT LOW) IN 36-48 HOURS. THE
REMNANT LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 4, IF NOT SOONER. THE UPDATED
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE, FOLLOWING CONTINUITY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LYING NEAR THE UPPER BOUND OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS.

XAVIER'S MOTION STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY NORTHWARD, OR 350/5 KT.
THE GLOBAL MODELS, MOST OF WHICH ASSUME THAT XAVIER WILL BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM SOON, SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE, AS LONG AS XAVIER MAINTAINS VERTICAL INTEGRITY, IT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING CLOSER TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

>

2018-11-04 20:44

WTPZ45 KNHC 042040
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

After being sheared off this morning, deep convection has
redeveloped and persisted over Xavier's center of circulation.
Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB remain 3.0, and
the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 43 kt. The initial intensity
therefore remains 45 kt. Although shear analyses indicate that
about 25 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting Xavier, an
upper-level trough in the vicinity appears to be producing a decent
amount of divergence aloft to support the ongoing convection. The
global models show that trough dissipating and the upper flow
becoming unidirectional within 12 hours, which should cut off the
divergence and allow the adverse effects of shear and dry air to
take over. As a result, gradual weakening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Xavier may cease to produce organized deep
convection (and thus become a remnant low) in 36-48 hours. The
remnant low should dissipate by day 4, if not sooner. The updated
NHC intensity forecast is conservative, following continuity from
the previous forecast and lying near the upper bound of the
intensity models.

Xavier's motion still appears to be slowly northward, or 350/5 kt.
The global models, most of which assume that Xavier will become a
shallow system soon, show the cyclone turning northwestward and
west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. While this seems
reasonable, as long as Xavier maintains vertical integrity, it will
likely continue moving closer to the right side of the guidance
envelope. With the assumption that deep convection won't dissipate
right away, the NHC track forecast is to the right of the consensus
aids, close to the ECMWF solution, during the first 24 hours.
After 24 hours, it remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.

A 1600 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Xavier's tropical-storm-force
wind field on the east side was larger than previously estimated,
with those winds lying near the coast of southwestern Mexico. As a
result, the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
a portion of the coasts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Locally
heavy rainfall and large swells are also likely to affect the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 18.1N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 18.7N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 19.2N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 19.5N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 19.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-04 20:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 042039 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2018

...XAVIER MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO...
....HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 105.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION BY TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE COAST TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

>

2018-11-04 20:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 042039
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

...XAVIER MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO...
...HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 105.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Xavier is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On
the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore
the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from
the coast tonight and on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. Isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible over Michoacan and Colima.
This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-04 20:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 042039 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
2100 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA... MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.7N 106.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.2N 107.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 108.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2018-11-04 20:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 042039
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
2100 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA... MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.7N 106.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.2N 107.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 108.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2018-11-04 17:50

WTPZ35 KNHC 041741 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION BY TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE COAST TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND XAVIER

>

2018-11-04 17:45

WTPZ35 KNHC 041741
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 105.4 West. Xavier is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On
the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore
the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from
the coast tonight and on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the
center. These winds are occurring very near the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-04 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 041556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.7N 167.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2018 0 7.7N 167.5W 1004 25
0000UTC 05.11.2018 12 7.9N 170.8W 1004 27
1200UTC 05.11.2018 24 8.5N 173.6W 1005 24
0000UTC 06.11.2018 36 8.8N 176.0W 1004 26
1200UTC 06.11.2018 48 8.6N 178.2W 1003 27
0000UTC 07.11.2018 60 8.4N 179.8W 1001 25
1200UTC 07.11.2018 72 8.6N 178.6E 1000 28
0000UTC 08.11.2018 84 8.9N 177.2E 996 34
1200UTC 08.11.2018 96 9.2N 176.0E 989 50
0000UTC 09.11.2018 108 9.4N 174.8E 985 53
1200UTC 09.11.2018 120 9.5N 173.8E 978 65
0000UTC 10.11.2018 132 9.7N 172.7E 976 68
1200UTC 10.11.2018 144 10.3N 171.1E 980 64

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 118.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2018 0 13.0N 118.3W 1008 27
0000UTC 05.11.2018 12 13.7N 117.7W 1007 20
1200UTC 05.11.2018 24 14.2N 118.1W 1006 22
0000UTC 06.11.2018 36 14.5N 118.6W 1006 23
1200UTC 06.11.2018 48 15.2N 119.1W 1007 20
0000UTC 07.11.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 105.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2018 0 16.9N 105.2W 997 43
0000UTC 05.11.2018 12 18.3N 105.2W 991 56
1200UTC 05.11.2018 24 19.0N 105.6W 999 45
0000UTC 06.11.2018 36 20.4N 106.8W 1004 34
1200UTC 06.11.2018 48 21.1N 107.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 07.11.2018 60 22.0N 108.6W 1007 22
1200UTC 07.11.2018 72 22.5N 109.0W 1008 19
0000UTC 08.11.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041555

>

2018-11-04 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 041555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.7N 167.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.11.2018 7.7N 167.5W WEAK
00UTC 05.11.2018 7.9N 170.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 8.5N 173.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 8.8N 176.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 8.6N 178.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 8.4N 179.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 8.6N 178.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 8.9N 177.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2018 9.2N 176.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2018 9.4N 174.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.11.2018 9.5N 173.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2018 9.7N 172.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2018 10.3N 171.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 118.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.11.2018 13.0N 118.3W WEAK
00UTC 05.11.2018 13.7N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 14.2N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 14.5N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 15.2N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 105.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.11.2018 16.9N 105.2W MODERATE
00UTC 05.11.2018 18.3N 105.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.11.2018 19.0N 105.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.11.2018 20.4N 106.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.11.2018 21.1N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 22.0N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 22.5N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041555

>

2018-11-04 14:41

WTPZ35 KNHC 041435 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
900 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2018

...HEAVY RAINS FROM XAVIER SPREADING ONSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 105.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF XAVIER.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION BY TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, XAVIER'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND XAVIER IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).

>

2018-11-04 14:39

WTPZ35 KNHC 041435
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
900 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

...HEAVY RAINS FROM XAVIER SPREADING ONSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 105.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Xavier.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 105.3 West. Xavier is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther
away from the coast tonight and on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco
through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-04 14:38

WTPZ25 KNHC 041434
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1500 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF XAVIER.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.1N 105.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 107.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.1N 109.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2018-11-04 08:43

WTPZ45 KNHC 040838 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2018

XAVIER REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION, RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE
MASS. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED
OVERNIGHT, AND A BLEND OF THOSE DATA ALONG WITH THE LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATE STILL YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT.

XAVIER HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AS THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
TREND OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT XAVIER WILL LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN 48 TO
72 HOURS, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3.

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT XAVIER HAS MADE ITS
ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD TURN. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY, BUT IT SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
THEN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT WEAKENS AND IS
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS IT KEEPS THE CYCLONE STRONGER
AND DEEPER WHICH ALLOWS XAVIER TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE HWRF, GFS, AND ECMWF

>

2018-11-04 08:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 040837 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2018

...XAVIER TURNS NORTHWARD...
.....HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 105.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND WEST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AND XAVIER IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. XAVIER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY XAVIER WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST

>

2018-11-04 08:42

WTPZ45 KNHC 040838
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

Xavier remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Although deep convection
continues to develop over the northeastern portion of the
circulation, recent satellite imagery suggests that the center has
become a little more exposed to the southwest of the convective
mass. Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have not changed
overnight, and a blend of those data along with the latest SATCON
estimate still yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt.

Xavier has likely peaked in intensity as the strong vertical wind
shear over the system is forecast to increase further today and
tonight. This should result in gradual weakening during the
next day or two, and the new NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the latest multi-model intensity consensus. The dynamical
models indicate that Xavier will lose its deep convection in 48 to
72 hours, and the official forecast calls for the system to
degenerate to a remnant low by day 3.

The latest satellite fixes suggest that Xavier has made its
anticipated northward turn. The tropical storm is forecast to
move slowly northward today, but it should turn west-northwestward,
then westward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it weakens and is
steered by the low-level flow to the south of a subtropical ridge.
The UKMET model remains an outlier as it keeps the cyclone stronger
and deeper which allows Xavier to move much farther north. The
remainder of the track guidance is in good agreement, and the
updated NHC track is near a blend of the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF
models, and is very close to the latest FSSE guidance.

Although the center Xavier is not forecast to move much closer to
the coast of southwestern Mexico, large swells and locally heavy
rainfall could affect portions of that area during the next day or
two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.6N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 17.8N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 18.3N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-11-04 08:41

WTPZ35 KNHC 040837
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

...XAVIER TURNS NORTHWARD...
...HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 105.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 105.9 West. Xavier is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-
northwest and west are expected tonight and Monday, and Xavier is
then forecast to move westward through mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today and continue
over the next few days. Xavier is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression by Monday night, and degenerate into a remnant low
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Xavier may produce locally heavy rainfall over portions
of southwestern Mexico. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-11-04 08:41

WTPZ25 KNHC 040837
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0900 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.3N 105.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.8N 106.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.2N 109.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.3N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2018-11-04 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 040356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 8.0N 164.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.11.2018 0 8.0N 164.7W 1005 25
1200UTC 04.11.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.11.2018 0 11.8N 119.7W 1009 24
1200UTC 04.11.2018 12 12.8N 118.6W 1008 25
0000UTC 05.11.2018 24 13.3N 118.3W 1007 21
1200UTC 05.11.2018 36 14.2N 118.6W 1006 23
0000UTC 06.11.2018 48 14.7N 119.5W 1005 22
1200UTC 06.11.2018 60 15.1N 119.7W 1007 20
0000UTC 07.11.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.11.2018 0 15.7N 105.9W 998 42
1200UTC 04.11.2018 12 17.2N 105.2W 993 49
0000UTC 05.11.2018 24 18.6N 105.5W 990 57
1200UTC 05.11.2018 36 19.5N 105.9W 1001 38
0000UTC 06.11.2018 48 20.7N 106.8W 1005 30
1200UTC 06.11.2018 60 21.5N 107.7W 1007 24
0000UTC 07.11.2018 72 22.2N 108.5W 1007 18
1200UTC 07.11.2018 84 22.3N 108.9W 1009 19
0000UTC 08.11.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.5N 179.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.11.2018 60 9.5N 179.3W 1003 26
0000UTC 07.11.2018 72 9.5N 178.4E 1002 26
1200UTC 07.11.2018 84 9.4N 176.4E 999 29
0000UTC 08.11.2018 96 9.6N 174.9E 995 36
1200UTC 08.11.2018 108 9.5N 173.9E 988 50
0000UTC 09.11.2018 120 9.4N 173.0E 983 58
1200UTC 09.11.2018 132 9.5N 172.0E 977 65
0000UTC 10.11.2018 144 9.8N 170.4E 973 66


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040356

>

2018-11-04 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 040356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98C ANALYSED POSITION : 8.0N 164.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.11.2018 8.0N 164.7W WEAK
12UTC 04.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.11.2018 11.8N 119.7W WEAK
12UTC 04.11.2018 12.8N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2018 13.3N 118.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 14.2N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 14.7N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 15.1N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.11.2018 15.7N 105.9W MODERATE
12UTC 04.11.2018 17.2N 105.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.11.2018 18.6N 105.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 19.5N 105.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.11.2018 20.7N 106.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 21.5N 107.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 22.2N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 22.3N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.5N 179.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.11.2018 9.5N 179.3W WEAK
00UTC 07.11.2018 9.5N 178.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 9.4N 176.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 9.6N 174.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2018 9.5N 173.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2018 9.4N 173.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.11.2018 9.5N 172.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2018 9.8N 170.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040356

>

2018-11-04 02:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 040236 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1000 PM CDT SAT NOV 03 2018

...XAVIER TURNS NORTHEASTWARD...
.....HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 105.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST.XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A SLOWER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. XAVIER IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY XAVIER WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF

>

2018-11-04 02:41

WTPZ45 KNHC 040237 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1000 PM CDT SAT NOV 03 2018

XAVIER'S OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS STILL STRONGLY SHEARED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
PRIMARILY OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER. RECENT
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 KT.
EARLIER ASCAT DATA EXPLICITLY CONTAINED SEVERAL VECTORS NEAR 45 KT,
BUT THE INSTRUMENT COULD HAVE UNDER-SAMPLED THE MAXIMUM WINDS. BASED
ON ALL THESE DATA, 50 KT SEEMS MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE TROPICAL
STORM'S INTENSITY AT THIS TIME.

REGARDLESS OF XAVIER'S EXACT MAXIMUM WINDS, IT IS LIKELY NEARING ITS
PEAK INTENSITY NOW. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE
SHORT TERM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE FOR CONVECTION BY LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST THAT
XAVIER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT 24 H. BY 96 H, IF NOT SOONER,
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT XAVIER WILL LOSE ALL DEEP
CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW. VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

XAVIER IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 035/6 KT. WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET
MODEL, THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN
NORTHWARD TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, AND IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN STEADILY

>

2018-11-04 02:41

WTPZ45 KNHC 040237
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

Xavier's overall structure has not changed since this afternoon. The
tropical storm is still strongly sheared and deep convection is
primarily occurring to the northeast of its low-level center. Recent
objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 45 to 50 kt.
Earlier ASCAT data explicitly contained several vectors near 45 kt,
but the instrument could have under-sampled the maximum winds. Based
on all these data, 50 kt seems most representative of the tropical
storm's intensity at this time.

Regardless of Xavier's exact maximum winds, it is likely nearing its
peak intensity now. Some slight additional strengthening in the
short term can not be ruled out, however the global models indicate
that strong wind shear will continue through the forecast period and
the flow aloft will become less supportive for convection by late
Sunday or early Monday. All of the intensity models forecast that
Xavier will begin to weaken in about 24 h. By 96 h, if not sooner,
the dynamical models indicate that Xavier will lose all deep
convection and become a remnant low. Virtually no change was made to
the official intensity forecast, which is merely an update of the
previous advisory.

Xavier is now moving toward the northeast, and the initial motion
estimate is 035/6 kt. With the continued exception of the UKMET
model, the typically reliable track guidance is in good agreement
on the track of the tropical storm. The cyclone will likely turn
northward tonight or tomorrow, and is then forecast to turn steadily
westward in another day or two as it weakens and becomes vertically
shallow. The UKMET does not show this turn and shows a
stronger/deeper Xavier that moves farther north, though this
scenario appears unlikely given the strong agreement among the
intensity models that Xavier will weaken. Only minor adjustments
were made to the NHC track forecast, which blends the previous
official forecast with the HCCA and GFEX consensus aids at most
forecast hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 16.1N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 16.7N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 17.8N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 18.1N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-11-04 02:41

WTPZ25 KNHC 040236 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0300 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.7W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.7W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N 105.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.8N 106.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 110.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

>

2018-11-04 02:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 040236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

...XAVIER TURNS NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 105.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 105.7 West.Xavier is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower motion
toward the north-northeast and then north is expected overnight and
on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west on Monday. Xavier is
then forecast to move westward through mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Small
fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and on Sunday.
Weakening is anticipated by Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will begin affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Xavier may produce locally heavy rainfall over portions
of southwestern Mexico. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-11-04 02:40

WTPZ25 KNHC 040236
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0300 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.7W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.7W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N 105.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.8N 106.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 110.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2018-11-03 20:44

WTPZ45 KNHC 032040 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 PM MDT SAT NOV 03 2018

XAVIER CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE VARIOUS
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 45
KT, AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE WINDS NEAR 45 KT.
THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT THAT VALUE. ANALYSES FROM
CIMSS AND FROM THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT XAVIER IS STILL IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
LAST ADVISORY. DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
XAVIER SHOULD PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS
COULD ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DESPITE THE ONGOING SHEAR.
AFTER THAT TIME, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE, LEAVING THE
TROPICAL STORM IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, MODERATE TO
STRONG SHEAR, AND A DRY SURROUNDING AIR THAT SHOULD CAUSE IT TO
WEAKEN. BASED ON THIS EVOLUTION, THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING EARLY IN THE FORECAST, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, XAVIER IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 96 H. THE FORECAST AGAIN FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND LIES NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 H.

>

2018-11-03 20:44

WTPZ45 KNHC 032040
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 PM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018

Xavier continues to show a sheared cloud pattern in conventional
satellite imagery this afternoon, with the low-level center located
near or just southwest of the main convective mass. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 45
kt, and recent scatterometer data also indicate winds near 45 kt.
Thus, the initial intensity remains at that value. Analyses from
CIMSS and from the SHIPS model indicate that Xavier is still in an
environment of 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical shear.

There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the
last advisory. During the next 12-24 h, the dynamical models
suggest that an upper-level trough located to the north and west of
Xavier should provide upper-level divergence over the cyclone. This
could allow some additional strengthening despite the ongoing shear.
After that time, the trough is forecast to dissipate, leaving the
tropical storm in an area of upper-level convergence, moderate to
strong shear, and a dry surrounding air that should cause it to
weaken. Based on this evolution, the intensity forecast calls for a
little more strengthening early in the forecast, followed by gradual
weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. As in the
previous forecast, Xavier is expected to degenerate to a remnant low
in about 96 h. The forecast again follows the overall trend of the
intensity guidance and lies near the upper edge of the guidance
through 48 h.

The initial motion is now 060/8. As mentioned previously, Xavier
should turn northeastward and then northward during the next 24 h
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by the
aforementioned trough. As Xavier weakens and becomes a shallow
system, the cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest and west
as it is steered by the low-level flow to the south of the
subtropical ridge. All of the dynamical models follow this
scenario except for the UKMET, which shows a much more northward
motion toward the southern Gulf of California. The new forecast
track will follow the model consensus in showing the westward
motion, and the new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous
track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.6N 106.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 16.1N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.9N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.3N 106.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 17.5N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 18.0N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-11-03 20:44

WTPZ35 KNHC 032039 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 PM MDT SAT NOV 03 2018

...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
....HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 106.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY XAVIER WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT

>

2018-11-03 20:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 032039
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 PM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018

...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 106.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 106.1 West. Xavier is
moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
motion toward the northeast and then north is expected through
Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west on Sunday
night or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through tonight. Weakening is
expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will begin affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Xavier may produce locally heavy rainfall over portions
of southwestern Mexico. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-11-03 20:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 032039 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
2100 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.1N 105.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.3N 106.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

>

2018-11-03 20:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 032039
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
2100 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.1N 105.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.3N 106.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 106.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2018-11-03 14:39

WTPZ45 KNHC 031434 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
900 AM MDT SAT NOV 03 2018

ALTHOUGH XAVIER IS BEING AFFECTED BY 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR, THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45
KT, WHICH IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

DURING THE NEXT 24 H, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF XAVIER SHOULD
PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS COULD ALLOW
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DESPITE THE ONGOING SHEAR. AFTER
THAT TIME, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE, LEAVING THE
TROPICAL STORM IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE
TO STRONG SHEAR THAT SHOULD CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN. BASED ON THIS
EVOLUTION, THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE CYCLONE
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 H. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
OVERALL TREND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND LIES NEAR THE UPPER EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE.

BASED ON A COMBINATION OF CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
FIXES, THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 060/7. THERE IS AGAIN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. XAVIER SHOULD TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 H TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. AS XAVIER WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM, THE

>

2018-11-03 14:38

WTPZ45 KNHC 031434
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
900 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018

Although Xavier is being affected by 20-25 kt of westerly vertical
shear, the cyclone continues to generate a large burst of convection
and the low-level center is now located under the southwestern edge
of the convective mass. The initial intensity is increased to 45
kt, which is at the upper end of the various satellite intensity
estimates.

During the next 24 h, the dynamical models suggest that an
upper-level trough located to the north and west of Xavier should
provide upper-level divergence over the cyclone. This could allow
some additional strengthening despite the ongoing shear. After
that time, the trough is forecast to dissipate, leaving the
tropical storm in an area of upper-level convergence and moderate
to strong shear that should cause it to weaken. Based on this
evolution, the intensity forecast calls for a little more
strengthening during the next 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening
through the remainder of the forecast period, with the cyclone
becoming a remnant low in about 96 h. The forecast follows the
overall trend of the intensity guidance and lies near the upper edge
of the guidance.

Based on a combination of conventional and microwave satellite
fixes, the initial motion is estimated to be 060/7. There is again
little change to the forecast track philosophy. Xavier should turn
northeastward and then northward during the next 24 h toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge created by the aforementioned
trough. As Xavier weakens and becomes a shallow system, the
cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest and west as it is
steered by the low-level flow to the south of the subtropical ridge.
The new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east and
north of the previous track, but it remains close to the various
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.3N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 16.6N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 17.3N 106.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 17.4N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-11-03 14:38

WTPZ35 KNHC 031433 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
900 AM MDT SAT NOV 03 2018

...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS A
LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 107.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY XAVIER WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT

>

2018-11-03 14:38

WTPZ25 KNHC 031433 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1500 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.3N 106.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

>

2018-11-03 14:37

WTPZ35 KNHC 031433
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
900 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018

...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS A
LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 107.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 107.0 West. Xavier is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower
motion toward the northeast and then north is expected through
Sunday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through
tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will begin affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2018-11-03 14:37

WTPZ25 KNHC 031433
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
1500 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.3N 106.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2018-11-03 08:40

WTPZ45 KNHC 030836 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 AM MDT SAT NOV 03 2018

A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF XAVIER'S CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT. AN EARLIER
GMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION, BUT THERE WAS EVIDENCE OF
AN INCREASE IN BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM.
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.5 AND T3.0,
RESPECTIVELY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

XAVIER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
ALTHOUGH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS NO ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEEPEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MODEL. BY 48 HOURS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN
STRONGER, AND AS A RESULT, GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
THEREAFTER. XAVIER IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
BY DAY 4, IF NOT SOONER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE
CENTER OF XAVIER. BASED ON THAT DATA AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES,
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS

>

2018-11-03 08:40

WTPZ45 KNHC 030836
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018

A large burst of deep convection has developed over the northeastern
and eastern portions of Xavier's circulation overnight. An earlier
GMI microwave overpass indicated that the center was located near
the southwestern edge of the convection, but there was evidence of
an increase in banding over the northeastern portion of the storm.
Dvorak data T-numbers from TAFB and SAB were T2.5 and T3.0,
respectively, so the initial intensity has been increased to
40 kt for this advisory.

Xavier is expected to remain embedded within an area of moderate
to strong southwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours, and
these conditions are likely to prevent significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance shows no additional
intensification, the dynamical models deepen the system over the
next day or so, and the NHC forecast calls for a slight increase in
wind speed today, followed by little change in strength through
Sunday. This is in good agreement with the latest HFIP corrected
consensus model. By 48 hours the shear is expected to become even
stronger, and as a result, gradual weakening should occur
thereafter. Xavier is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
by day 4, if not sooner.

The aforementioned microwave pass was very helpful in locating the
center of Xavier. Based on that data and recent satellite fixes,
the initial motion estimate is east-northeastward at about 6 kt.
The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous
advisory. Xavier should turn northeastward, then northward by
tonight toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a
deep-layer trough over central Mexico. After Xavier weakens, the
cyclone should turn toward west-northwestward or westward as it
is steered by the low-level flow. Since there is still a fair
amount of spread among the track models as to how far north Xavier
will move before it weakens and turns westward, the NHC track is
close to the various consensus aids at 48 hours and beyond. Most
of the track models have trended a little faster after 48 hours,
and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 14.7N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.2N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 16.6N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 17.5N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-11-03 08:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 030836 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 AM MDT SAT NOV 03 2018

...XAVIER STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 107.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY XAVIER WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

>

2018-11-03 08:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 030836
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018

...XAVIER STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 107.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 107.7 West. Xavier is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
motion toward the northeast and then north is expected through the
weekend, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will begin affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2018-11-03 08:40

WTPZ25 KNHC 030835
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0900 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 107.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 107.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.6N 106.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.5N 107.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2018-11-03 03:56

WTNT82 EGRR 030355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 118.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2018 0 12.7N 118.6W 1009 19
1200UTC 03.11.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 25E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 108.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2018 0 14.1N 108.7W 1006 24
1200UTC 03.11.2018 12 14.5N 107.6W 1005 29
0000UTC 04.11.2018 24 14.5N 107.3W 1003 31
1200UTC 04.11.2018 36 15.3N 106.2W 1002 37
0000UTC 05.11.2018 48 16.4N 105.7W 998 43
1200UTC 05.11.2018 60 17.4N 105.7W 996 44
0000UTC 06.11.2018 72 18.1N 106.4W 999 40
1200UTC 06.11.2018 84 18.6N 107.8W 1002 33
0000UTC 07.11.2018 96 19.5N 109.0W 1003 29
1200UTC 07.11.2018 108 20.2N 110.3W 1005 28
0000UTC 08.11.2018 120 20.6N 111.1W 1006 27
1200UTC 08.11.2018 132 20.7N 111.1W 1007 26
0000UTC 09.11.2018 144 20.5N 110.6W 1008 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.2N 118.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2018 36 12.2N 118.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 05.11.2018 48 13.1N 118.8W 1006 27
1200UTC 05.11.2018 60 14.3N 119.8W 1004 26
0000UTC 06.11.2018 72 15.1N 120.2W 1002 29
1200UTC 06.11.2018 84 16.1N 120.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 07.11.2018 96 16.9N 121.2W 1006 25
1200UTC 07.11.2018 108 17.0N 121.7W 1008 21
0000UTC 08.11.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030355

>

2018-11-03 03:56

WTNT80 EGRR 030355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.11.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 118.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.11.2018 12.7N 118.6W WEAK
12UTC 03.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 25E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 108.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP252018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.11.2018 14.1N 108.7W WEAK
12UTC 03.11.2018 14.5N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2018 14.5N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2018 15.3N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2018 16.4N 105.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 17.4N 105.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 18.1N 106.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 18.6N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 19.5N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 20.2N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 20.6N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2018 20.7N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2018 20.5N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.2N 118.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.11.2018 12.2N 118.5W WEAK
00UTC 05.11.2018 13.1N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2018 14.3N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2018 15.1N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2018 16.1N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2018 16.9N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2018 17.0N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030355

>

2018-11-03 02:40

WTPZ35 KNHC 030232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM XAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
900 PM MDT FRI NOV 02 2018

...TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 108.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. XAVIER IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2018-11-03 02:37

WTPZ45 KNHC 030233 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
900 PM MDT FRI NOV 02 2018

FOR THE 22ND TIME THIS YEAR, A TROPICAL STORM (XAVIER) HAS FORMED
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE MOST RECENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS SATCON SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 35 KT. XAVIER IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM TO REACH THE
.X. NAME ON THE EAST PACIFIC NAMELIST SINCE 1992.

NO CHANGES OF NOTE WERE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE TROPICAL
STORM IS STRONGLY SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH XAVIER
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE HIGH WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
CYCLONE. THE HWRF, HMON, AND COAMPS-TC MODELS ALL FORECAST THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WHILE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT XAVIER IS ALREADY
NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS AND SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASED SHEAR AND A DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE XAVIER TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THE CENTER OF XAVIER THIS EVENING,
BUT IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL MOVING
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 7 KT. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE XAVIER TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE HAS

>

2018-11-03 02:37

WTPZ45 KNHC 030233
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018

For the 22nd time this year, a tropical storm (Xavier) has formed
over the eastern North Pacific. The most recent intensity estimates
from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support increasing the initial
intensity to 35 kt. Xavier is the first tropical storm to reach the
"X" name on the East Pacific namelist since 1992.

No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast. The tropical
storm is strongly sheared from the southwest and convective activity
is limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Although Xavier
should be located over warm waters for the next 5 days, strong
upper-level southwesterly flow will cause high wind shear across the
cyclone. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast that the
tropical storm could strengthen a little more over the next day or
so, while the statistical guidance indicates that Xavier is already
near its peak intensity. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
consensus and shows slight strengthening through the weekend. By
early next week, increased shear and a drier surrounding environment
will likely cause Xavier to weaken and become a remnant low.

It has been difficult to identify the center of Xavier this evening,
but it is estimated that the tropical storm is still moving
generally east-northeastward at around 7 kt. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending
over central Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico should cause Xavier to
turn toward the northeast or north overnight and tomorrow. There has
been a shift in the GFS and its associated regional models, which
now show a farther northeast track of Xavier, closer to the coast of
Mexico. However, a majority of the dynamical models still show the
cyclone turning abruptly westward and away from land while it
weakens by early next week. Out of respect for the ECMWF and its
ensemble, which show a much farther west track for Xavier, the NHC
forecast has been nudged only slightly toward the northeast through
48 h and now lies a little to the west of the TVCE track consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.5N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 15.6N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 16.4N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 17.1N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2018-11-03 02:36

WTPZ25 KNHC 030232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
0300 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 108.2W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 108.2W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.4N 106.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2018-11-02 20:49

WTPZ35 KNHC 022040
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 PM MDT FRI NOV 02 2018

...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 109.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH
(13 KM/H). A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2018-11-02 20:46

WTPZ45 KNHC 022041 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
300 PM MDT FRI NOV 02 2018

MICROWAVE DATA RECEIVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WE'VE BEEN MONITORING SOUTHWEST OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER
OF CIRCULATION AND IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL CURVED BANDS. VISIBLE IMAGES,
HOWEVER, STILL SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE SWIRLS ARE REVOLVING AROUND A
COMMON CENTER, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST OF
THAT CENTER DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE-E, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT BASED ON
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 AND T1.5.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS
TO SUPPORT STRENGTHENING, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM ITS CURRENT VALUE OF ABOUT 15 KT TO OVER 25 KT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE, ONLY SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, WITH WEAKENING BEGINNING
BY DAY 3. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN
4 OR 5 DAYS ONCE IT CAN NO LONGER PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW LITTLE TO NO STRENGTHENING,
SO THIS INITIAL FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HWRF, HCCA, AND
GFS MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 75
DEGREES, AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST, AND TO THE SOUTH OF AN
EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO AND

>

2018-11-02 20:45

WTPZ45 KNHC 022041
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
300 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018

Microwave data received during the past several hours indicate that
the broad area of low pressure we've been monitoring southwest of
the coast of Mexico has developed a sufficiently well-defined center
of circulation and improved low-level curved bands. Visible images,
however, still suggest that multiple swirls are revolving around a
common center, with the deepest convection offset to the east of
that center due to southwesterly shear. Now that the system has a
well-defined center, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Twenty-Five-E, with maximum winds of 30 kt based on
Dvorak classifications of T2.0 and T1.5.

Although the depression should remain over sufficiently warm waters
to support strengthening, southwesterly shear is expected to
increase from its current value of about 15 kt to over 25 kt during
the next couple of days. Therefore, only some intensification is
anticipated during the next 36 hours or so, with weakening beginning
by day 3. The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low in
4 or 5 days once it can no longer produce organized deep convection.
The statistical-dynamical guidance show little to no strengthening,
so this initial forecast most closely follows the HWRF, HCCA, and
GFS models.

The depression appears to be moving east-northeastward, or 75
degrees, at about 7 kt. The depression is trapped between two
mid-tropospheric ridges to its east and west, and to the south of an
expansive mid-level trough which extends across much of Mexico and
the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting steering pattern should cause the
cyclone to move slowly northeastward and then northward toward the
trough during the next 48 hours, but the system should then turn
sharply westward on days 4 and 5 once it becomes a shallower system
and is steered by lower-level easterly flow. The UKMET model is the
main outlier among the model guidance, showing the system reaching
the coast of southwestern Mexico, but it appears to keep the
circulation too deep in the face of strong southwesterly shear. The
NHC track forecast is therefore just slightly left of the TVCN
multi-model consensus and the HCCA model, keeping the cyclone well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.4N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.7N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 15.2N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 15.9N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 16.7N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 17.5N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 17.8N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 18.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2018-11-02 20:45

WTPZ25 KNHC 022040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018
2100 UTC FRI NOV 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 109.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 109.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.9N 107.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 107.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>