Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOYCE-18
Off-shore

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2018-09-19 05:32

WTNT45 KNHC 190235
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

During the past couple of days, Joyce had been producing patches of
deep convection that would quickly shear off due to strong westerly
winds aloft. Each convective burst appeared weaker than the
previous one, and during the past 12-18 hours, the circulation has
been nearly devoid of deep convection. Therefore, Joyce no longer
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last
advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The
initial wind speed is held at 25 kt, in agreement with a recent
ASCAT pass around 2200Z that showed maximum winds in the 20-25 kt
range. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and
ultimately dissipate in a couple of days due to dry and stable air,
cool SSTs, and moderate to strong westerly shear.

Joyce is moving south-southwestward at 7 kt on the east side of a
low- to mid-level ridge. A turn to the southwest is expected on
Wednesday as the ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and
that motion should continue until the remnant low dissipates. The
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 30.4N 27.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-19 05:32

WTNT35 KNHC 190232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

...JOYCE IS NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 27.9W
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce
was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 27.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the south-southwest near 8
mph (13 km/h). A southwestward motion is expected on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is
expected to dissipate within a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Joyce. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-19 05:32

WTNT25 KNHC 190231
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 27.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 27.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 27.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 27.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON JOYCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-18 23:33

WTNT45 KNHC 182029
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

Deep convection has generally been on the wane during the past day
or so near the center of Joyce, and it is getting very close to no
longer having organized deep convection. With the decrease in
overall organization, the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt. An
environment of strong westerly vertical wind shear (30-40 kt)
and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C) should cause
Joyce to become a remnant low by late tonight or early Wednesday.
This agrees well with the latest global model guidance, and the
timing of remnant low status has been moved up to 12 hours (or
less).

The initial motion of Joyce continues to turn and is now south-
southwestward (205 degrees at 6 kt). The depression is forecast
to turn increasingly to the southwest and west as the central
Atlantic ridge builds to the north. Model guidance, except the HWRF,
is tightly clustered, so the new forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous one, closest to the HCCA consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 30.9N 27.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Campbell/Blake

2018-09-18 23:33

WTNT35 KNHC 182028
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

...JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 27.8W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is expected to gradually turn to the southwest and
west through early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low late tonight or
early Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Campbell/Blake

2018-09-18 23:33

WTNT25 KNHC 182028
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 27.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 27.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CAMPBELL/BLAKE

2018-09-18 17:34

WTNT45 KNHC 181431
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

Earlier in the morning, the low-level center of Joyce became
decoupled from a small area of deeper convection. However, another
convective burst has recently developed after 12Z closer to the
low-level center. The initial intensity of Joyce was held at 30 kt
based on a recent ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 25-30 kt winds
on the north side of the circulation. The number of wind retrievals
close to 30 kt was rather limited, so Joyce's winds should decrease
below 30 kt when it eventually loses deep convection. The
depression is in an environment with strong westerly vertical wind
shear (30-40 kt) and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C),
and thus the primary forecast question is when Joyce will succumb to
the relatively hostile environment, lose deep convection and become
a remnant low. The GFS and ECMWF models both show some deep
convection lingering into tomorrow before warming upper-level
temperatures and increasingly dry air aloft kill off any remaining
convection. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point maintains tropical
depression status, and the 24-hour forecast point indicates a
post-tropical system.

The initial motion of Joyce is now more southerly (185 degrees at 7
kt), and it will begin to turn increasingly to the southwest and
west as the central Atlantic ridge builds to the north. The new
forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one, which
was close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus models. Minor adjustments
were made in the first 24 hours to account for a slightly faster
observed motion to the south in the past 6-12 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 31.6N 27.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 30.6N 27.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z 29.0N 31.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Blake

2018-09-18 17:34

WTNT35 KNHC 181430
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 27.4W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 27.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
will gradually turn to the southwest and west over the next couple
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple days, and
Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Blake

2018-09-18 17:34

WTNT25 KNHC 181429
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 27.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 27.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 27.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.6N 27.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 27.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE

2018-09-18 11:33

WTNT25 KNHC 180832
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 27.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 27.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 27.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.0N 27.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.3N 29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.8N 31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.5N 34.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 27.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-18 05:33

WTNT45 KNHC 180237
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

Joyce remains a very resilient tropical cyclone. After an earlier
burst of deep convection just east of the low-level center that has
since dissipated, a new convective burst has developed just north of
the center with a curved convective band trying to develop in the
eastern semicircle. All of this convective activity has been
occurring despite westerly 850-200-mb vertical wind shear of near
35 kt and in the presence of very dry mid-level air. The initial
intensity is being maintained a 30 kt based on earlier 28-kt ASCAT
wind data, and the fact that no significant change has occurred to
Joyce's low-level appearance in satellite imagery.

The initial motion estimate is now 155/06 kt. Joyce is forecast to
move around the eastern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located
across the eastern Atlantic to the southwest and west of the
cyclone. This large-scale steering feature is expected to gradually
turn Joyce toward the south overnight and on Tuesday, and then force
the cyclone toward the southwest on Wednesday and Thursday. The new
NHC track forecast is to the west of the previous advisory track,
and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to a blend
of the consensus models TVCA and HCCA.

Convective development during the past 12 hours has been in large
part due to the strong atmospheric instability created by very cold
200-mb temperatures near -57 deg C overlaying relatively warm ocean
temperatures of 25.5 deg C. A contributing factor to the most recent
convective development appears to be enhanced uplift caused by an
approaching shortwave trough noted in water vapor imagery between
30W-35W longitude. The latter feature is forecast by most of the
global models to cut off south of the Azores and become entangled
with Joyce's circulation over the next few days, resulting in a
sharp decrease in the vertical wind shear and an increase in
atmospheric instability/CAPE by 48 h and beyond, which would aid
convective development and re-strengthening. For now, however, the
new intensity forecast continues the weakening trend of the previous
advisories due to an abundance of very dry mid-level air being
entrained into the circulation, which is expected to shut down
convective development, causing Joyce to dissipate shortly after
72 h. However, confidence in this forecast scenario is not very
high, and some adjustments may be required to subsequent forecasts
once the 18/0000Z model guidance becomes available, especially since
the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance maintains
Joyce as a 30- to 35-kt tropical cyclone through the next 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 33.2N 27.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 32.4N 27.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 31.4N 27.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 30.5N 28.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 29.9N 29.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 29.2N 33.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-18 05:33

WTNT35 KNHC 180233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

...JOYCE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 27.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 27.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
south is forecast to begin on Tuesday, followed by a motion toward
the southwest on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight. Joyce is
forecast to become a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-18 05:33

WTNT25 KNHC 180233
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 27.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 27.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 27.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.4N 27.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.4N 27.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.5N 28.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.9N 29.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 33.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 27.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-17 23:33

WTNT45 KNHC 172036
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

Tropical Depression Joyce has proven to be resilient. Visible
satellite imagery over the eastern Atlantic today showed a
fairly prolonged burst of deep convection near and just east of the
center. In the grand scheme of things, the circulation of Joyce is
still relatively dry and free of thunderstorms, but this batch of
convection causes us to maintain a 30-knot intensity at advisory
time.

Joyce had turned decidedly to the southeast since 15Z, and
this fits in with the model guidance - all of which showed a very
strong track consensus that curves the system down away from the
westerlies, with the track eventually turning toward the southwest,
suppressed by a developing flat ridge around 35 degrees north.
Over time, this track will put Joyce in an environment characterized
by less shear, but also marginal sea surface temperatures and very
dry mid-level air. This should cause deep convection to diminish,
and gradually reduce Joyce's winds and structure to a post-tropical
low - noting that all the global models lose definition on this
system just after 72 hours.

The lastest official track is near the consensus of the tightly
clustered guidance, and represents no significant change since the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 33.7N 27.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 31.8N 26.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 30.8N 27.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 30.1N 28.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z 28.7N 31.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Burke/Blake

2018-09-17 23:33

WTNT35 KNHC 172035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

...JOYCE CONTINUES AS A DEPRESSION TURNING SOUTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 27.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 27.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue while turning toward the south
on Tuesday and southwest on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Burke/Blake

2018-09-17 23:33

WTNT25 KNHC 172035
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC MON SEP 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 27.4W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 27.4W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 27.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.8N 26.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.8N 27.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.1N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.7N 31.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 27.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE/BLAKE

2018-09-17 17:34

WTNT45 KNHC 171435
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

Joyce is gradually losing organization, with drier air entraining
into the circulation. Visible satellite imagery this morning
shows a few cloud swirls pivoting around a mean center with
only a small amount of deep convection displaced about 90 miles
northeast of the mean center. ASCAT scatterometer data indicate
that winds of 25 to 30 kt remain on the southwestern side of the
cyclone. Based on these data, Joyce remains a 30-kt tropical
depression for this advisory. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear
are expected to continue to weaken Joyce over the next few days, and
the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 24
hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and remains close to the model consensus. The only notable
change is that Joyce is now expected to become a remnant low a
little faster than the previous advisory.

The initial motion is 105/07 kt. Joyce has slowed down this
morning as anticipated as it is now reaching the northeastern
periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of
days, the cyclone is expected to turn southeastward, southward, and
then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The
lastest track guidance is tightly clustered, with the NHC track
forecast lying in the middle of the guidance envelope, and close to
the previous official forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 34.0N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 32.3N 26.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 31.2N 27.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 30.3N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

2018-09-17 17:34

WTNT35 KNHC 171433
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

...JOYCE CONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 28.4W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 28.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h)
and this forward speed is expected to continue while turning
toward the southeast today, south on Tuesday, and southwest on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Joyce is
expected to become a remnant low tonight or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

2018-09-17 17:34

WTNT25 KNHC 171433
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
1500 UTC MON SEP 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 28.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 28.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 28.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.3N 26.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.2N 27.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.3N 28.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 28.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO

2018-09-17 11:34

WTNT45 KNHC 170834
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

A few convective cells have redeveloped to the northeast of the
estimated center, but this new convection is quickly being displaced
eastward by very strong vertical shear. Global model guidance
indicates that strong westerly or northwesterly shear should
persist over Joyce for the next couple of days. Thus, even though
the system is over marginally warm SSTs, the combination of strong
shear and very dry air in the mid-levels should cause the cyclone
to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. It would not be
surprising, however, to see Joyce degenerate even sooner than that.
The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and
close to the HWRF model guidance.

The circulation is a bit elongated, making the center somewhat
difficult to locate. The initial motion is a rather uncertain
090/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast
reasoning. Joyce is currently on the north side of a mid-level
high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone
should turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward
around the eastern periphery of the high. The NHC track forecast
is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, and
not too different from the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 34.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-17 11:34

WTNT35 KNHC 170833
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 29.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 29.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). The
system should slow its forward speed while turning toward the
southeast on today, south on Tuesday, and southwest on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is
expected to become a remnant low within the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-17 11:34

WTNT25 KNHC 170833
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.0W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.0W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 29.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-17 05:33

WTNT45 KNHC 170240
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

Joyce is managing to maintain tropical cyclone status despite very
strong westerly vertical wind shear. The system still displays cold
cloud tops, but only within the northeast quadrant and at least
100 nm from the center. The shear is being induced primarily by
50-kt 200 mb winds. Usually such strong vertical shear would
completely decapitate a tropical cyclone. However, systems in
higher latitudes and moving in the same direction as the shear
vector tend to be somewhat more resilient to the detrimental
effects of the shear. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that Joyce
will soon succumb to the combination of high shear, cool waters,
and dry mid-levels, and become a remnant low within 48 hours, if not
sooner. The official intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening,
nearly the same as the previous advisory and based upon a blend of
the LGEM statistical scheme and the HWRF/HMON dynamical models.

Joyce is moving toward the east at a quick 18-kt clip. The system
has not been picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies and is
expected to be advected around the lower tropospheric Bermuda-Azores
high. Joyce should slow its forward speed and turn toward the
southeast (on Monday), the south (on Tuesday), and finally the
southwest (on Wednesday) before dissipating in about four days. The
track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model
consensus and is slightly farther east because of the quicker
eastward initial motion than previously observed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 34.0N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 33.7N 27.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 32.8N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 31.7N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 30.5N 27.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 28.9N 29.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-17 05:33

WTNT35 KNHC 170239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

...JOYCE REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 30.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 30.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h). The
system should slow its forward speed while turning toward the
southeast on Monday, south on Tuesday, and southwest on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is
expected to become a remnant low within the next two days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-17 05:33

WTNT25 KNHC 170239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 30.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 30.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 31.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 33.7N 27.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.8N 26.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.7N 26.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.5N 27.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.9N 29.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 30.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

2018-09-16 23:34

WTNT45 KNHC 162033
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

Joyce continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cloud
pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches
of deep convection that become sheared off in the northeast
quadrant. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement
with an ASCAT pass from several hours ago that showed maximum winds
in the 25-30 kt range. Even though Joyce is over relatively warm
water, the current hostile atmospheric environment of 30-40 kt of
west-southwesterly shear and nearby dry air should cause Joyce to
gradually weaken during the next few days. Although remnant low
status is not predicted to occur for 2-3 days, it is very possible
that Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low well
before then.

The depression has turned to the east, with the latest initial
motion estimate being 090/15. The weak and shallow system is
expected to move in the low- to mid-level flow during the next few
days. This should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn
southeastward on Monday, followed by a southward and then
southwestward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system moves
around a building ridge over the northeastern Atlantic. The track
models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were
made to the previous NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 34.4N 32.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 34.2N 30.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 33.6N 28.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 32.4N 27.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 31.2N 27.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 29.4N 30.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-16 23:34

WTNT35 KNHC 162032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

...JOYCE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 32.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 32.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. After that time,
the cyclone should slow down and turn toward the southeast and then
the southwest away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Joyce could degenerate
into a trough or a remnant low within the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-16 23:34

WTNT25 KNHC 162032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 33.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.2N 30.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.6N 28.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.4N 27.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.2N 27.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.4N 30.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 32.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-16 17:33

WTNT45 KNHC 161441
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

Joyce is barely a tropical cyclone at the moment. The cloud
pattern consists of a low-level swirl with a small patch of deep
convection located about 80 n mi northeast of the center and another
patch of weakening convection well removed from the center in the
northeast quadrant. Visible satellite images and a partial ASCAT
pass indicate that the circulation of the cyclone has also become
increasingly elongated from northeast to southwest. Based on the
system's appearance and the satellite intensity estimates, the
initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, making Joyce a tropical
depression.

The depression is moving east-northeastward at 16 kt within the
mid-latitude westerlies, and this motion should continue through
tonight. After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to slow
down and turn southeastward and then southwestward as it is moves
in the flow on the east side of a building low- to mid-level ridge.
The track models are in fairly good agreement, and little overall
change was made to the previous NHC forecast.

Joyce is currently in a quite hostile environment of 30-40 kt of
west-southwesterly shear. Even though SSTs are relatively warm,
the ongoing strong shear and nearby dry air should continue to cause
the cyclone to gradually weaken. Although the NHC forecast shows
Joyce hanging on as a tropical depression for a couple of more days,
it is very possible that the system could degenerate into a trough
or a remnant low at any time during that period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 34.7N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-16 17:33

WTNT35 KNHC 161441
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 34.3W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 34.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.
After that time, the cyclone should slow down and turn toward the
southeast and then the southwest away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Joyce could
degenerate into a trough or a remnant low within the next couple of
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-16 17:33

WTNT25 KNHC 161440
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 34.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-16 11:33

WTNT45 KNHC 160844
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

What's left of the Joyce's associated deep convection is now
displaced about 80 miles to the north-northeast of the elongated
surface circulation. There still may be some 35 kt winds in a
small area of deep convection where the coldest cloud tops (-65C)
are observed, therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for
this advisory.

There is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy. The
surrounding environment is forecast to remains quite unfavorable
during the next 24 hours, although the warm 27C oceanic temperatures
could slightly counteract the negative effects of the harsh vertical
shear pattern. Afterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures, a
more stable thermodynamic air mass, along with the stiff shear, is
forecast to induce gradual weakening and, ultimately, dissipation in
4 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 075/15
kt. The cyclone is embedded within the same mid-tropospheric
steering flow as Tropical Storm Helene, and Joyce should move
east-northeastward to eastward today. Through day 3, Joyce should
turn southeastward to south-southwestward around the eastern
periphery of a subtropical ridge to its west as a vertically
shallow system. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and is based on the better-performing consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 34.0N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 34.5N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 34.6N 30.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 34.1N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 30.7N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-16 11:33

WTNT35 KNHC 160844
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

...JOYCE BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM.....


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 36.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 36.1 West. Joyce is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in
forward speed. After that time, the cyclone should turn
toward the east-southeast away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional
weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-16 11:33

WTNT25 KNHC 160843
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 36.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 36.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 37.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.5N 33.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.6N 30.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.1N 27.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.7N 28.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 36.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-16 05:33

WTNT45 KNHC 160233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

Joyce is a highly sheared cyclone with the low-level center well
separated from the convection. Given the deterioration of the cloud
pattern, the initial intensity has been generously set at 35 kt.
The shear is expected to remain belligerently high and the ocean
along the forecast track is cooler. On this basis, the NHC forecast
calls for additional weakening, and then dissipation beyond 3 days
if not sooner.

Joyce continues to move eastward at about 15 kt embedded within the
fast mid-latitude flow. The system should decrease its forward
speed as it weakens and become a shallow cyclone. It should
then turn east-southeast and even southward steered by the low-level
flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 33.4N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 34.5N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 34.5N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 31.0N 27.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-16 05:33

WTNT35 KNHC 160233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...JOYCE MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING.....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 38.0W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 38.0 West. Joyce is
moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in
forward speed. After that time, the cyclone should turn
east-southeast away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-16 05:33

WTNT25 KNHC 160232
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 38.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 38.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.5N 32.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 29.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.0N 27.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 38.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-15 23:34

WTNT45 KNHC 152031
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

The circulation of Joyce is elongated this afternoon, with the
center partially exposed. It has been interesting to watch deep
convection firing in the northeastern quadrant, kicking off new
small swirls that rotate around the mean circulation. A blend of
the Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB supports keeping the wind speed
40 kt on this advisory.

There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. The
environment is predicted to be nearly steady-state around Joyce
through Sunday, with strong shear being offset by waters near 27C.
Thereafter, as the hostile shear continues, the mid-level air should
become drier near the center, and SSTs cool off below 26C. These
conditions should cause Joyce to slowly weaken early next week, and
dissipate in 3 days or so. This forecast is basically the same as
the previous one, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility the
cyclone could open up into a trough before that time.

Joyce continues to accelerate, now moving east-northeastward at
about 15 kt. The storm remains embedded within the same trough as
Tropical Storm Helene, and Joyce should move east-northeastward
during the next day or so. Beyond that time, as Joyce becomes a
shallow cyclone, it is forecast to turn southeastward due to
low-level flow around the eastern side of a building ridge over the
central Atlantic Ocean. The track forecast is simply an update to
the previous one, and continues to be on the southern side of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 33.1N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 34.1N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 34.8N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 34.8N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 34.0N 28.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-15 23:34

WTNT35 KNHC 152031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...JOYCE MOVING FASTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 39.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 39.6 West. Joyce is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. The
storm should turn back to the east on Monday and to the southeast on
Tuesday, away from the Azores

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-15 23:34

WTNT25 KNHC 152030
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 39.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 39.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.1N 37.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N 33.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.8N 30.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.0N 28.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-15 17:33

WTNT45 KNHC 151432
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

Joyce is feeling the effects of shear this morning. The low-level
center of the tropical storm has become exposed to the south of a
area of deep convection. ASCAT data indicate the the maximum winds
have dropped to 35-40 kt, and 40 kt is chosen as the initial wind
speed since the resolution of ASCAT is likely causing an
undersampling of the small storm.

The environment isn't forecast to change much near Joyce during the
next day or so, with strong shear being offset by waters near 27C.
The NHC forecast is leveled off during that time, a bit lower than
the previous prediction mostly to account for the initial wind
speed. Thereafter, while the shear is forecast to continue, the
mid-level air should become drier near the center, and SSTs cool off
gradually below 26C. These conditions should cause Joyce to
slowly weaken early next week, and dissipate in 3 days or so. This
is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the NHC
forecast follows suit.

Joyce has accelerated overnight, now moving east-northeastward at
about 12 kt. The storm remains embedded in the same trough as
Tropical Storm Helene and it should follow that tropical cyclone
east-northeastward to northeastward at increasing forward speeds
during the next day or two. Beyond that time, as Joyce becomes a
shallow cyclone, it is forecast to turn southeastward due to
low-level flow around the eastern side of a building ridge over the
central Atlantic Ocean. No significant changes were made to the
forecast, which lies on the southern side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 32.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 32.9N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 34.0N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 34.5N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 34.0N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 32.0N 25.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-15 17:33

WTNT35 KNHC 151431
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...JOYCE WEAKER AS IT TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 41.0W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 41.0 West. Joyce is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster
east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day
or two. The storm should turn back to the east on Monday and to the
southeast on Tuesday, away from the Azores.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased
to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is
forecast during the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-15 17:33

WTNT25 KNHC 151431
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 41.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.9N 39.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.0N 35.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.5N 32.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N 29.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.0N 25.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 41.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-15 11:34

WTNT45 KNHC 150843
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

There has not much change with Joyce overnight. The tropical storm
is producing a fair amount of deep convection to the north and west
of the center, but there are some dry slots on the east side. A
blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding
the initial wind speed at 45 kt. Joyce is currently just east of an
upper-level trough and the flow aloft is quite diffluent near the
cyclone. This upper-level pattern could allow Joyce to strengthen
slightly today. However, by tonight, southwesterly flow aloft is
expected to increase over the cyclone. This increase in shear
combined with decreasing mid-level humidities and cooling SSTs
should lead to a steady weakening trend after 12 hours. The cyclone
is forecast to dissipate in 3 to 4 days, but some of the models
suggest that this could occur sooner.

The tropical storm is moving eastward at 7 kt. Joyce is embedded
in the same trough as Helene and it should follow that tropical
cyclone east-northeastward to northeastward at increasing forward
speeds during the next day or two. Beyond that time, if there
is anything left of Joyce, the system will likely turn back to the
east or east-southeast as it moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this
forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 31.9N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 32.7N 40.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 33.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 34.6N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 34.7N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 33.0N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-15 11:34

WTNT35 KNHC 150843
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...JOYCE MOVING EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 42.2W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 42.2 West. Joyce is
moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster
east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day
or two. A turn back to the east or east-southeast is forecast on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but gradual
weakening is forecast to begin tonight or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-15 11:34

WTNT25 KNHC 150843
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 42.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 42.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.7N 40.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.9N 37.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.6N 34.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.7N 31.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 26.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 42.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-15 05:33

WTNT45 KNHC 150241
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Joyce continues to look better organized on GOES-16 satellite
imagery and the convective canopy has expanded. However, recent
microwave data reveals that the cyclone is still tilted to the
northeast due to nearly strong southwesterly wind shear. The most
recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications support raising the
initial intensity to 45 kt. Despite the shear, most of the intensity
guidance shows very slight strengthening over the next 12 to 24
hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous advisory at most forecast times. Persistent shear and
decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause Joyce to
weaken beyond that time, likely dissipating entirely shortly after
72 h. A few models, most notably the HWRF and UKMET, persist the
cyclone a little beyond that, but only as a remnant low.

The storm has turned east as expected, and the initial motion is now
090/5 kt. As the larger Helene begins to accelerate away, a
mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic should cause Joyce to
turn northeastward and speed up. A turn back toward the east, or
possibly even east-southeast is possible by the end of the forecast
period as Joyce weakens and follows the northern periphery of a
subtropical high over eastern Atlantic. Very little change has been
made to the track forecast through 48 h, but it has been adjusted to
the south at 72 h, following the latest consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 31.6N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 32.2N 42.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 33.2N 39.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 34.4N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 35.1N 33.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 28.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-15 05:33

WTNT35 KNHC 150239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...JOYCE STILL STRENGTHENING...
...NOW MOVING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 43.6W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 43.6 West. Joyce is
moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight
and tomorrow, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-15 05:33

WTNT25 KNHC 150239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 43.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 43.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 43.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.2N 42.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.2N 39.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.4N 37.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.1N 33.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 28.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-14 23:33

WTNT45 KNHC 142042
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Convection associated with Joyce has increased since the last
advisory, with a vigorous band now near the center in the northern
semicircle. In response, satellite intensity estimates have edged
upward, and the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt as a blend
between the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates and the CIMSS
satellite consensus. The cyclone now has good cirrus outflow in
the northern semicircle as an upper-level low seen in water vapor
imagery passes south of the cyclone.

The storm is starting its forecast turn toward the east and the
initial motion is now 125/5. As Tropical Storm Helene to the
east-northeast of Joyce moves away, Joyce is expected to turn
northeastward with an increase in forward speed during the next
24 h, followed by an eastward turn after 48 h. The global models
continue to trend faster, and after 48 h there has been a southward
shift compared to the previous guidance. Therefore, the new
forecast track will be notably faster than the previous track and
the 72 h point will be shifted southward. The new track is still a
little to the north of the various consensus models.

Southwesterly upper-level winds are still forecast to increase over
the cyclone during the next day or two, and the forecast track takes
Joyce over decreasing sea surface temperatures. This combination
should lead to a weakening trend, especially after 24 h. The new
intensity forecast is adjusted upward a little from the previous
one based on the initial intensity, but it still calls for Joyce to
dissipate by 96 h in agreement with most of the global models. It
is possible that Joyce could strengthen a little more during the
first 12 h while the upper-level low helps keep the stronger shear
away from the storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 31.4N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 31.6N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 32.6N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 33.9N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 35.0N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 35.5N 28.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-14 23:33

WTNT35 KNHC 142041
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...JOYCE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 44.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 44.1 West. Joyce is
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
east is expected tonight, and a turn toward the northeast at a
faster forward speed is expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
Saturday. Joyce is then forecast to weaken to a depression by
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-14 23:33

WTNT25 KNHC 142040
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 44.1W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 44.1W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 44.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.6N 43.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.6N 41.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.9N 38.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.0N 35.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.5N 28.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 44.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-14 18:37

WTNT82 EGRR 141601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 96.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2018 0 25.9N 96.7W 1008 19
0000UTC 15.09.2018 12 27.2N 97.7W 1007 21
1200UTC 15.09.2018 24 28.1N 98.7W 1008 20
0000UTC 16.09.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 77.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2018 0 34.0N 77.8W 955 70
0000UTC 15.09.2018 12 33.9N 78.5W 970 62
1200UTC 15.09.2018 24 33.6N 79.3W 982 49
0000UTC 16.09.2018 36 33.7N 80.1W 987 44
1200UTC 16.09.2018 48 34.3N 81.8W 994 32
0000UTC 17.09.2018 60 36.1N 83.7W 1001 18
1200UTC 17.09.2018 72 38.0N 84.7W 1004 15
0000UTC 18.09.2018 84 38.8N 83.4W 1006 16
1200UTC 18.09.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 36.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2018 0 31.6N 36.8W 984 57
0000UTC 15.09.2018 12 35.2N 36.2W 974 62
1200UTC 15.09.2018 24 38.1N 34.3W 961 70
0000UTC 16.09.2018 36 40.0N 30.8W 964 68
1200UTC 16.09.2018 48 42.6N 26.0W 965 64
0000UTC 17.09.2018 60 45.3N 21.3W 966 56
1200UTC 17.09.2018 72 48.1N 14.5W 973 53
0000UTC 18.09.2018 84 54.3N 5.6W 981 49
1200UTC 18.09.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 66.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2018 0 15.5N 66.1W 1004 29
0000UTC 15.09.2018 12 15.8N 68.6W 1004 28
1200UTC 15.09.2018 24 15.9N 71.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 16.09.2018 36 16.9N 72.4W 1003 32
1200UTC 16.09.2018 48 18.2N 74.8W 1006 29
0000UTC 17.09.2018 60 19.0N 76.6W 1006 27
1200UTC 17.09.2018 72 19.9N 78.8W 1008 23
0000UTC 18.09.2018 84 20.5N 80.8W 1008 22
1200UTC 18.09.2018 96 21.4N 82.6W 1009 20
0000UTC 19.09.2018 108 22.2N 84.5W 1008 20
1200UTC 19.09.2018 120 22.5N 86.9W 1010 18
0000UTC 20.09.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2018 0 31.6N 44.7W 1003 25
0000UTC 15.09.2018 12 31.2N 44.1W 1002 27
1200UTC 15.09.2018 24 31.9N 42.4W 1002 37
0000UTC 16.09.2018 36 33.1N 39.8W 1005 34
1200UTC 16.09.2018 48 34.5N 37.3W 1009 31
0000UTC 17.09.2018 60 34.6N 33.8W 1011 28
1200UTC 17.09.2018 72 34.2N 30.0W 1010 31
0000UTC 18.09.2018 84 33.1N 27.7W 1009 27
1200UTC 18.09.2018 96 32.5N 27.4W 1010 24
0000UTC 19.09.2018 108 32.7N 27.2W 1009 25
1200UTC 19.09.2018 120 33.1N 27.0W 1009 26
0000UTC 20.09.2018 132 33.4N 26.2W 1009 29
1200UTC 20.09.2018 144 33.1N 25.4W 1007 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 27.0N 72.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2018 144 27.1N 72.6W 1012 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141600

2018-09-14 18:37

WTNT80 EGRR 141600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 96.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2018 25.9N 96.7W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2018 27.2N 97.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 28.1N 98.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 77.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2018 34.0N 77.8W INTENSE
00UTC 15.09.2018 33.9N 78.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 33.6N 79.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 33.7N 80.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2018 34.3N 81.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2018 36.1N 83.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2018 38.0N 84.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2018 38.8N 83.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 36.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2018 31.6N 36.8W MODERATE
00UTC 15.09.2018 35.2N 36.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 38.1N 34.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 40.0N 30.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 42.6N 26.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 45.3N 21.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 48.1N 14.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2018 54.3N 5.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 66.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2018 15.5N 66.1W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2018 15.8N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 15.9N 71.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 16.9N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 18.2N 74.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 19.0N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 19.9N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2018 20.5N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2018 21.4N 82.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2018 22.2N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2018 22.5N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2018 31.6N 44.7W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2018 31.2N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 31.9N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 33.1N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 34.5N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 34.6N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 34.2N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2018 33.1N 27.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2018 32.5N 27.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2018 32.7N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2018 33.1N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2018 33.4N 26.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2018 33.1N 25.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 27.0N 72.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2018 27.1N 72.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141600

2018-09-14 17:34

WTNT45 KNHC 141442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Joyce has again changed little in organization since the last
advisory, with several small bands of convection to the east and
northeast of the partly exposed center. The initial intensity
remains 35 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates from
TAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus.

The initial motion is now 180/7. Joyce is currently being steered
by the larger and stronger Helene to its east, and a southward to
southeastward motion is expected for the next 12 h or so. As
Helene passes to the east-northeast of Joyce, Joyce should turn
eastward and northeastward with a faster forward speed due to the
approach of a mid-latitude trough from the west. The global models
have again trended toward a faster northeastward motion after 24 h,
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to be faster and a
little farther to the east.

There is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy from the
previous advisory. Southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to
increase over the cyclone within the next day or two, which should
prevent Joyce from strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for little
change in wind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as the
shear increases further. The global models mostly dissipate Joyce
by day 4, but the system could lose its deep convection and become
post-tropical before that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 31.6N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 31.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 32.0N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 33.2N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 34.6N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 36.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-14 17:34

WTNT35 KNHC 141441
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...JOYCE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 44.6W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 44.6 West. Joyce is
moving toward the south near 8 mph (13 km/h). Joyce is forecast to
slow its forward motion and turn eastward by tonight, and then
accelerate northeastward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Joyce is
then forecast to weaken to a depression Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-14 17:34

WTNT25 KNHC 141441
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 44.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 44.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 44.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.3N 44.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.0N 42.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.2N 41.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.6N 38.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.0N 32.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-14 11:35

WTNT45 KNHC 140833
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

There has been little change in the convective organization of
Joyce overnight. The system continues to produce bands of
convection over the northeastern portion of the circulation, but
the center remains exposed due to shear. The initial intensity is
held at 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent
TAFB satellite estimate.

Joyce is still moving southwestward or 210 degrees at 7 kt. Joyce
is being steered in that direction around the larger circulation of
Helene to its east-southeast. Once Helene passes east-northeast of
Joyce later today, Joyce should turn eastward, then begin to
accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the
weekend. The global models have trended toward a faster
northeastward motion after 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction as well.

Southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the
cyclone within the next day or two, which should prevent Joyce from
strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for little change in
wind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as the shear
increases further. Both the GFS and ECMWF dissipate Joyce by day 4,
but the system could lose its deep convection and become
post-tropical before that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 32.1N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 31.7N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 31.8N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 32.7N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 34.0N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 36.5N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-14 11:35

WTNT35 KNHC 140833
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...JOYCE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 44.9W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 44.9 West. Joyce is
moving toward the south-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Joyce is
forecast to slow down and turn eastward by tonight, and then
accelerate northeastward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Joyce is expected to weaken early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-14 11:35

WTNT25 KNHC 140833
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 44.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 44.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 44.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.7N 44.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.8N 43.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.7N 42.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 40.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-14 05:33

WTNT45 KNHC 140238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Beginning around 6 hours ago, convection redeveloped near the center
of Joyce. Since then, the cyclone has become displaced from the
upper-level low, and an ASCAT overpass around 2330 UTC showed that
Joyce has a small radius of maximum winds of around 30 n mi. Based
on these factors, it appears Joyce has become a tropical cyclone.
The ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of just over 30 kt, but its
possible the instrument slightly under-sampled the maximum winds of
the small cyclone. In addition, convection near the center
increased somewhat after the time of the ASCAT pass. The initial
intensity has therefore been held at 35 kt, making Joyce a tropical
storm.

Joyce has accelerated a little toward the west-southwest, perhaps
more than previously anticipated. As a result, the forecast has
been shifted south at most forecast hours, but not quite as far as
the consensus models would suggest. There is otherwise no change
to the track forecast reasoning, and Joyce is still expected to move
slowly generally southward while Helene passes to the east until
accelerating toward the northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough in
a day or two.

Despite the recent, and perhaps temporary, resurgence of
convection, no change has been made to the intensity forecast.
None of the guidance shows much intensification, and the NHC
forecast continues to rely on a blend of the intensity consensus
and the GFS and ECMWF, which only show gradual weakening throughout
the forecast period. Considering that the cyclone has only
gradually weakened to this point, this still seems like a reasonable
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 32.9N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 31.7N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.2N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 33.3N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-14 05:33

WTNT35 KNHC 140237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...JOYCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 44.4W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Joyce is
moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue tonight. Joyce is forecast
to gradually turn toward the northeast on Friday and then
accelerate northeastward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Joyce is now a tropical storm. Little change in strength is
expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-14 05:33

WTNT25 KNHC 140237
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 44.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 44.4W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 44.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.7N 44.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.2N 43.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.3N 42.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 44.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-13 23:34

WTNT45 KNHC 132052
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Joyce has an exposed center this afternoon with no substantial
deep convection anywhere nearby. The initial intensity
remains 35 kt, consistent with the Hebert-Poteat ST2.5
classification from TAFB as well as the appearance of the very
tight low-level center as seen in the GOES-16 visible satellite
imagery. As Joyce still remains embedded within an upper-level
trough, the system retains the subtropical storm label.

Joyce has now been devoid of deep convection for almost a day, due
to the dry stable air combined with strong tropospheric vertical
shear. As the system is not expected to undergo extratropical
transition, without deep convection gradual weakening is
anticipated until dissipation in about four days. The official
intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN intensity consensus
scheme along with the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance. This
new forecast indicates a reduction from the previous advisory, and
in fact, Joyce could become a post-tropical cyclone soon if deep
convection does not reappear shortly.

Joyce is moving toward the southwest at about 5 kt, as it is
situated slightly to the west of an upper-level low. In a couple
days, a new short wave trough will dive equatorward west of Joyce
and begin advecting Joyce toward the northeast. The new NHC track
forecast is a bit to the left (southwest) of the previous advisory
and is based upon a blend of the HWRF hurricane model and the GFS
and ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 33.6N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 33.1N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 32.3N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 32.4N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 33.2N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 36.0N 39.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-13 23:34

WTNT35 KNHC 132051
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...JOYCE LOSING ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 44.2W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 44.2 West. The storm is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward
the south-southwest and then toward the south is expected later
today through early Friday. A gradual turn toward the east-northeast
and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening of the system is expected through Sunday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-13 23:34

WTNT25 KNHC 132051
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 44.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 44.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.1N 44.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.3N 44.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.4N 44.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.2N 43.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 44.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

2018-09-13 17:35

WTNT45 KNHC 131437
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Joyce's satellite presentation is less than impressive this morning,
with the low-level center exposed to the northwest of a small patch
of deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on
the latest subtropical classification of ST2.5 from TAFB a 1208Z
ASCAT-B overpass that showed 30-35 kt winds north and northeast of
the center. Cyclone phase space diagrams still show Joyce with a
shallow-to-moderate warm core, and the system remains a subtropical
storm for now.

Little change in intensity is expected during the next few days, as
Joyce will continue to be affected by strong westerly-to-
southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC forecast is a little
below the intensity consensus given the weakening trend seen in the
global models. Dissipation is shown at 96 hours, but it wouldn't be
surprising if Joyce becomes a post-tropical cyclone before that.

The initial motion estimate is 245/05. Joyce is currently situated
a little to the west of an upper-level low, which is currently
steering the system southwestward and southward, and that should
continue for the next day or so. Then, Joyce should begin to
accelerate northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-level trough.
The new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the latest
guidance, and is a little to the west of the previous one through
36 hours. The official forecast is close to the latest HCCA and
TVCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 33.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 33.1N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 31.9N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 32.5N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 35.5N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-13 17:35

WTNT35 KNHC 131437
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...JOYCE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 43.7W
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 43.7 West. The storm is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward
the south-southwest and then toward the south is expected later
today through early Friday. A gradual turn toward the east-northeast
and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
While little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, Joyce could transition to a tropical storm in the next day or
two.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to
the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-13 17:35

WTNT25 KNHC 131435
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.7W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.7W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 43.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.1N 44.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.9N 44.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 42.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 38.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 43.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-09-13 11:34

WTNT45 KNHC 130858
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Joyce is still co-located with an upper-level low, and the most
recent TAFB intensity classification was still a subtropical type.
Furthermore, there has been no discernible increase of convection
near the center of the cyclone, and cloud tops have actually warmed
over the past few hours. Therefore, Joyce is still classified as
subtropical for this advisory. Since the cyclone hasn't changed
much in organization, the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt
based on the TAFB subtropical intensity estimate, but this is still
possibly generous.

Joyce's struggle to maintain deep convection bodes poorly for its
intensification prospects, considering that the shear is forecast
by the global models to increase considerably over the next few
days. SHIPS, LGEM, and the global models continue to show Joyce
changing little in strength over the next few days until the
system dissipates by early next week. The HWRF and HMON models are
still outliers in showing substantial intensification, but even
these models aren't quite as aggressive in strengthening Joyce as
they were previously. The NHC forecast continues to favor the
statistical guidance and is just below the intensity consensus at
most forecast hours because it is frankly hard to believe that Joyce
will become a hurricane in 48 h based on its current appearance.

Joyce is still moving slowly southwestward with an initial motion
of 220/5 kt. The global models remain in fairly good agreement
that Joyce will move slowly southwestward for the next day or
so as the storm remains in light steering flow. A turn toward the
south will likely occur as Helene approaches from the southeast,
followed by a quick turn northeastward once the larger tropical
cyclone passes by. Joyce should then accelerate quickly
northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough before dissipating
southwest of the Azores. Little change was made to the official
track forecast which is near the middle of the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 33.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 33.3N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 32.6N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 32.1N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 34.6N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 37.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-13 11:34

WTNT35 KNHC 130856
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...JOYCE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 43.1W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 43.1 West. The storm is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow
southwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. A turn
toward the northeast with a rapid increase in forward motion is
forecast to occur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of
days. Joyce could become a tropical storm within the next day or
so.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the
center, mainly to the northwest.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-13 11:34

WTNT25 KNHC 130856
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 43.1W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 43.1W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 42.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.3N 43.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.6N 44.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.1N 43.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.6N 39.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 32.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 43.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-13 05:33

WTNT45 KNHC 130245
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

Joyce still has subtropical characteristics. Although a small area
of convection has recent developed near the storm's center, cloud
tops are not particularly cold and the cyclone is still co-located
with an upper-level low. The initial intensity has been held at 40
kt based on a subtropical intensity estimate of 35-40 kt from
TAFB. This could be generous estimate since a recent near-miss of
the ASCAT instrument to the west of Joyce suggested that the winds
may have decreased somewhat since earlier today.

Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast.
Just about all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that
some gradual strengthening is possible during the next day or two
while Joyce continues to acquire tropical characteristics. By 72 h,
the global and statistical models depict Joyce weakening due to a
drastic increase in shear and a decrease in environmental humidity
until it is absorbed into a larger mid-latitude trough around 96 h.
The HWRF and HMON models show a very different solution where Joyce
strengthens to hurricane strength despite the marginal environment.
This scenario seems less likely at this time, so the NHC intensity
forecast is just below the intensity consensus beyond 36 h.

Joyce is caught in fairly light steering currents between strong
ridges to its east and west, and the initial motion estimate is
220/5 kt. All of the global models forecast only a slow
southwestward motion during the next couple of days, particularly
as Hurricane Helene approaches from the southeast. Once Helene
passes to the east, Joyce will likely quickly turn northeastward and
accelerate ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough before
dissipating southwest of the Azores. The official track forecast is
basically a blend of the previous advisory and the corrected
consensus aids HCCA and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 34.1N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 33.5N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 32.9N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 14/1200Z 32.5N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 32.3N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 34.2N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 37.0N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-13 05:33

WTNT35 KNHC 130244
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 42.6W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 42.6 West. The storm is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow
southwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. A
turn toward the northeast with a rapid increase in forward motion
is forecast to occur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Joyce is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next day or
so.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center, mainly to the northwest.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-13 05:33

WTNT25 KNHC 130243
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 43.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.5N 44.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.3N 43.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 34.2N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 37.0N 33.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 42.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-12 23:34

WTNT45 KNHC 122040
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

The strong low pressure system which the NHC has been monitoring in
the north Atlantic for a couple of days has developed a cyclonically
curved band of deep convection near the center, and scatterometer
data indicate that the winds are near 40 kt. Since the system is
still vertically stacked with an upper-low, it is then classified
as a subtropical cyclone at this time. However, the cyclone is
gaining organization while it is acquiring tropical characteristics.
The NHC forecast calls for Joyce to transform into a tropical system
in about 12 to 24 hours. Since the ocean is warm, some slight
strengthening is possible during the next 3 days. After that time,
Joyce will be over cooler waters and should then be absorbed by a
larger extratropical low.

Joyce has been moving southwestward or 225 degrees at 5 kt, steered
by the northerly flow around the subtropical high which has been
steering Florence and to west of the mid-latitude trough which
is forcing Helene to recurve. In a couple of days, global models
indicate that the steering pattern will change as the trough
amplifies, and Joyce should then turn toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 34.3N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 33.7N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 13/1800Z 33.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 32.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 37.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-12 23:34

WTNT35 KNHC 122039
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...JOYCE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 41.9W
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Subtropical
Storm Joyce was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 41.9
West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h),
and this slow motion should continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Joyce is forecast to transform into a tropical storm by Thursday
and strengthen some.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-12 23:34

WTNT25 KNHC 122039
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 90SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 41.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.7N 42.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 43.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 37.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 41.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA