Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAUL-18
Off-shore

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2018-09-12 11:32

WTPZ43 KNHC 120837
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2018

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 14 AUGUST, THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HAS NO
TROPICAL CYCLONES. PAUL HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR
OVER 12 HOURS AND HAS THEREFORE BEEN DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 30 KT, BASED ON ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND
0500 UTC WHICH SHOWED A FEW WIND VECTORS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT, BUT
WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME SOON DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
REMNANT LOW IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 8 KT, AND A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS LATER THIS WEEK.

THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THE WEB AT
HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.SHTML.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 22.3N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 12/1800Z 22.4N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0600Z 22.4N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1800Z 22.4N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 22.3N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 21.8N 132.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-12 11:32

WTPZ33 KNHC 120836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2018

...PAUL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
....THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 127.4W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.SHTML.

...
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-12 11:32

WTPZ23 KNHC 120836
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.4N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.4N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.3N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.8N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 127.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-12 11:32

WTPN32 PHNC 121000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 22.3N 127.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 127.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.4N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.4N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.4N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.3N 131.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.8N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121000Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 127.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 816 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120600Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

2018-09-12 06:35

WTNT82 EGRR 120405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 89.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2018 0 19.9N 89.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 12.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 68.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2018 0 27.9N 68.0W 960 74
1200UTC 12.09.2018 12 29.2N 70.8W 960 77
0000UTC 13.09.2018 24 31.3N 73.1W 954 77
1200UTC 13.09.2018 36 33.1N 75.5W 944 85
0000UTC 14.09.2018 48 34.0N 76.9W 941 86
1200UTC 14.09.2018 60 34.1N 77.8W 954 74
0000UTC 15.09.2018 72 34.2N 78.1W 970 65
1200UTC 15.09.2018 84 34.1N 78.5W 976 56
0000UTC 16.09.2018 96 34.1N 79.2W 981 50
1200UTC 16.09.2018 108 34.3N 81.0W 990 34
0000UTC 17.09.2018 120 35.6N 82.5W 1000 28
1200UTC 17.09.2018 132 38.0N 83.2W 1002 17
0000UTC 18.09.2018 144 40.8N 81.1W 1002 27

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 35.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2018 0 17.4N 35.2W 961 74
1200UTC 12.09.2018 12 19.2N 36.3W 972 68
0000UTC 13.09.2018 24 21.4N 36.9W 979 69
1200UTC 13.09.2018 36 23.3N 37.4W 992 48
0000UTC 14.09.2018 48 25.1N 37.5W 999 35
1200UTC 14.09.2018 60 27.6N 37.5W 1002 34
0000UTC 15.09.2018 72 30.3N 36.6W 1003 33
1200UTC 15.09.2018 84 33.5N 34.7W 1005 34
0000UTC 16.09.2018 96 36.6N 31.7W 1007 33
1200UTC 16.09.2018 108 39.7N 27.2W 1005 36
0000UTC 17.09.2018 120 42.2N 22.5W 999 44
1200UTC 17.09.2018 132 47.0N 18.2W 992 42
0000UTC 18.09.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 51.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2018 0 14.3N 51.4W 991 70
1200UTC 12.09.2018 12 14.1N 54.0W 998 47
0000UTC 13.09.2018 24 14.6N 56.3W 998 50
1200UTC 13.09.2018 36 14.8N 59.1W 999 47
0000UTC 14.09.2018 48 14.8N 61.9W 997 47
1200UTC 14.09.2018 60 14.7N 65.1W 997 45
0000UTC 15.09.2018 72 14.8N 68.1W 998 40
1200UTC 15.09.2018 84 14.9N 71.0W 998 38
0000UTC 16.09.2018 96 15.0N 73.3W 999 39
1200UTC 16.09.2018 108 15.3N 75.5W 999 38
0000UTC 17.09.2018 120 16.1N 77.6W 1000 37
1200UTC 17.09.2018 132 16.8N 80.0W 1000 42
0000UTC 18.09.2018 144 17.3N 82.5W 1000 35

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 153.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2018 0 21.4N 153.7W 1004 38
1200UTC 12.09.2018 12 21.2N 155.6W 1007 33
0000UTC 13.09.2018 24 20.0N 159.0W 1008 28
1200UTC 13.09.2018 36 19.7N 161.7W 1008 28
0000UTC 14.09.2018 48 19.7N 164.1W 1007 30
1200UTC 14.09.2018 60 19.4N 166.9W 1007 32
0000UTC 15.09.2018 72 19.1N 169.4W 1007 28
1200UTC 15.09.2018 84 19.9N 171.4W 1008 27
0000UTC 16.09.2018 96 20.5N 173.7W 1007 26
1200UTC 16.09.2018 108 21.3N 175.9W 1008 26
0000UTC 17.09.2018 120 21.7N 178.1W 1008 23
1200UTC 17.09.2018 132 21.9N 179.3E 1009 21
0000UTC 18.09.2018 144 21.7N 176.9E 1009 23

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 126.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2018 0 22.2N 126.0W 1004 28
1200UTC 12.09.2018 12 22.8N 127.5W 1007 24
0000UTC 13.09.2018 24 23.0N 129.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 13.09.2018 36 23.1N 130.8W 1009 24
0000UTC 14.09.2018 48 22.8N 131.3W 1010 23
1200UTC 14.09.2018 60 22.5N 131.7W 1010 20
0000UTC 15.09.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 36.5N 40.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 12 35.8N 41.2W 1008 40
0000UTC 13.09.2018 24 34.8N 42.2W 1004 33
1200UTC 13.09.2018 36 34.4N 42.9W 1003 32
0000UTC 14.09.2018 48 34.5N 42.7W 1001 32
1200UTC 14.09.2018 60 35.1N 41.7W 997 43
0000UTC 15.09.2018 72 36.7N 39.8W 994 43
1200UTC 15.09.2018 84 38.7N 37.5W 997 38
0000UTC 16.09.2018 96 41.1N 35.6W 1000 30
1200UTC 16.09.2018 108 42.8N 32.6W 1001 27
0000UTC 17.09.2018 120 43.4N 27.8W 1000 33
1200UTC 17.09.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.1N 105.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2018 96 14.1N 106.4W 1001 30
1200UTC 16.09.2018 108 15.9N 108.2W 999 30
0000UTC 17.09.2018 120 16.0N 109.9W 996 35
1200UTC 17.09.2018 132 16.5N 111.4W 993 40
0000UTC 18.09.2018 144 17.8N 112.9W 990 53


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120405

2018-09-12 06:35

WTNT80 EGRR 120405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 89.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2018 19.9N 89.9W WEAK
12UTC 12.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 68.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2018 27.9N 68.0W STRONG
12UTC 12.09.2018 29.2N 70.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 31.3N 73.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 33.1N 75.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 34.0N 76.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 34.1N 77.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 34.2N 78.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 34.1N 78.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 34.1N 79.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2018 34.3N 81.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2018 35.6N 82.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2018 38.0N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2018 40.8N 81.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 35.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2018 17.4N 35.2W STRONG
12UTC 12.09.2018 19.2N 36.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 21.4N 36.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.3N 37.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 25.1N 37.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 27.6N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 30.3N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 33.5N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 36.6N 31.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 39.7N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 42.2N 22.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2018 47.0N 18.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 51.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2018 14.3N 51.4W MODERATE
12UTC 12.09.2018 14.1N 54.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 14.6N 56.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 14.8N 59.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 14.8N 61.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 14.7N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 14.8N 68.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 14.9N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 15.0N 73.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 15.3N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 16.1N 77.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 16.8N 80.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2018 17.3N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 153.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2018 21.4N 153.7W WEAK
12UTC 12.09.2018 21.2N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 20.0N 159.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 19.7N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 19.7N 164.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 19.4N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 19.1N 169.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 19.9N 171.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 20.5N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 21.3N 175.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 21.7N 178.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 21.9N 179.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2018 21.7N 176.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 126.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 126.0W WEAK
12UTC 12.09.2018 22.8N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 23.0N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 22.8N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 22.5N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 36.5N 40.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2018 35.8N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 34.8N 42.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 34.4N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 34.5N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 35.1N 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 36.7N 39.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 38.7N 37.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 41.1N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 42.8N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 43.4N 27.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.1N 105.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2018 14.1N 106.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2018 15.9N 108.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 16.0N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 16.5N 111.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2018 17.8N 112.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120405

2018-09-12 05:37

WTPZ43 KNHC 120232
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2018

ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL APPEARS TO HAVE CEASED A
LITTLE EARLIER TODAY, SHORTLY AFTER 1900 UTC. AT LEAST ONE MORE
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED JUST IN CASE PAUL MAKES AN UNEXPECTED
COMEBACK, BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE 24 DEG C SSTS BENEATH
THE CYCLONE. WITH NO CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN IT, PAUL WILL LIKELY
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATING
ENTIRELY BY THE WEEKEND. PAUL IS NOW MOVING WEST WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 275/10 KT. NOW THAT PAUL'S CIRCULATION HAS BECOME VERY
SHALLOW, IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION
OCCURS IN A FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 22.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 22.6N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0000Z 22.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1200Z 22.8N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0000Z 22.7N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-12 05:37

WTPZ33 KNHC 120231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...PAUL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 126.5W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1700 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
PAUL WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-12 05:37

WTPZ23 KNHC 120231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 126.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 126.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 126.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.6N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.7N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 126.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-12 05:37

WTPN32 PHNC 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 126.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 126.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.6N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.7N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.8N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.7N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.3N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 126.7W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 783 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-11 23:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 112032
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2018

PAUL DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME LEFT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF A DIMINISHING AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT AT THIS TIME, IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. SINCE THE
CYCLONE WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER SSTS BELOW 24 DEG C, THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY LOSE ITS REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS, OR SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/9 KT. AS THE CYCLONE
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, IT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 22.3N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 22.8N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-11 23:35

WTPZ33 KNHC 112031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...PAUL BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 125.2W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-11 23:35

WTPZ23 KNHC 112031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 124.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 125.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-11 23:35

WTPN32 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 22.2N 124.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 124.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.6N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.8N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.0N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.5N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
112200Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 125.4W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 748 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-11 18:32

WTNT82 EGRR 111608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 89.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2018 0 21.8N 89.8W 1011 24
0000UTC 12.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 64.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2018 0 26.6N 64.7W 968 67
0000UTC 12.09.2018 12 27.9N 68.0W 964 71
1200UTC 12.09.2018 24 29.4N 71.0W 965 73
0000UTC 13.09.2018 36 31.4N 73.2W 952 78
1200UTC 13.09.2018 48 33.3N 75.4W 939 85
0000UTC 14.09.2018 60 34.3N 76.4W 938 93
1200UTC 14.09.2018 72 34.7N 76.7W 950 81
0000UTC 15.09.2018 84 35.2N 76.6W 956 69
1200UTC 15.09.2018 96 35.1N 77.5W 969 56
0000UTC 16.09.2018 108 34.7N 79.1W 984 41
1200UTC 16.09.2018 120 35.0N 81.8W 996 21
0000UTC 17.09.2018 132 36.8N 84.6W 1002 17
1200UTC 17.09.2018 144 39.2N 84.4W 1005 21

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 34.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2018 0 16.0N 34.0W 966 70
0000UTC 12.09.2018 12 17.4N 34.9W 963 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 24 19.2N 36.0W 975 66
0000UTC 13.09.2018 36 21.2N 36.6W 985 56
1200UTC 13.09.2018 48 23.0N 37.2W 995 44
0000UTC 14.09.2018 60 25.1N 37.5W 1000 35
1200UTC 14.09.2018 72 27.6N 37.5W 1002 33
0000UTC 15.09.2018 84 30.8N 36.4W 1003 35
1200UTC 15.09.2018 96 34.3N 34.7W 1003 38
0000UTC 16.09.2018 108 37.1N 31.6W 1005 36
1200UTC 16.09.2018 120 39.0N 28.6W 1005 34
0000UTC 17.09.2018 132 40.9N 24.8W 1002 35
1200UTC 17.09.2018 144 44.7N 20.6W 990 40

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 49.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2018 0 14.4N 49.0W 993 59
0000UTC 12.09.2018 12 14.0N 51.0W 991 62
1200UTC 12.09.2018 24 13.9N 52.9W 993 59
0000UTC 13.09.2018 36 14.4N 55.3W 996 53
1200UTC 13.09.2018 48 14.7N 57.9W 998 52
0000UTC 14.09.2018 60 14.7N 60.5W 994 56
1200UTC 14.09.2018 72 14.7N 63.3W 996 50
0000UTC 15.09.2018 84 15.0N 66.0W 995 48
1200UTC 15.09.2018 96 15.1N 68.7W 998 46
0000UTC 16.09.2018 108 15.6N 71.0W 999 38
1200UTC 16.09.2018 120 15.6N 73.1W 999 39
0000UTC 17.09.2018 132 16.4N 75.0W 1001 39
1200UTC 17.09.2018 144 17.2N 77.3W 1003 38

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 150.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2018 0 21.8N 150.9W 993 56
0000UTC 12.09.2018 12 21.2N 153.7W 1001 43
1200UTC 12.09.2018 24 20.9N 155.8W 1005 43
0000UTC 13.09.2018 36 19.6N 159.1W 1006 31
1200UTC 13.09.2018 48 18.9N 162.0W 1007 30
0000UTC 14.09.2018 60 18.5N 164.3W 1006 27
1200UTC 14.09.2018 72 18.5N 166.9W 1006 33
0000UTC 15.09.2018 84 18.6N 169.2W 1005 33
1200UTC 15.09.2018 96 19.1N 171.2W 1007 31
0000UTC 16.09.2018 108 20.3N 173.4W 1006 33
1200UTC 16.09.2018 120 21.5N 176.0W 1005 37
0000UTC 17.09.2018 132 22.0N 178.6W 1004 36
1200UTC 17.09.2018 144 22.2N 179.0E 1004 38

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 124.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2018 0 21.9N 124.0W 1003 27
0000UTC 12.09.2018 12 22.2N 126.2W 1005 25
1200UTC 12.09.2018 24 22.7N 127.9W 1008 23
0000UTC 13.09.2018 36 22.7N 129.6W 1008 24
1200UTC 13.09.2018 48 23.1N 131.3W 1009 25
0000UTC 14.09.2018 60 22.8N 132.2W 1009 24
1200UTC 14.09.2018 72 22.5N 132.6W 1010 22
0000UTC 15.09.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 37.0N 40.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2018 12 36.4N 39.8W 1014 36
1200UTC 12.09.2018 24 36.4N 40.6W 1009 40
0000UTC 13.09.2018 36 34.8N 42.7W 1006 37
1200UTC 13.09.2018 48 34.2N 43.3W 1005 34
0000UTC 14.09.2018 60 34.0N 43.1W 1004 29
1200UTC 14.09.2018 72 34.2N 42.6W 1003 31
0000UTC 15.09.2018 84 34.7N 41.5W 1003 29
1200UTC 15.09.2018 96 35.0N 40.1W 1004 28
0000UTC 16.09.2018 108 35.6N 38.5W 1008 24
1200UTC 16.09.2018 120 36.4N 35.9W 1011 26
0000UTC 17.09.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 26.5N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2018 72 27.2N 97.0W 1007 25
0000UTC 15.09.2018 84 27.7N 99.0W 1006 17
1200UTC 15.09.2018 96 28.6N 100.4W 1007 18
0000UTC 16.09.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.6N 102.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2018 96 12.4N 103.4W 1002 30
0000UTC 16.09.2018 108 13.6N 105.0W 998 33
1200UTC 16.09.2018 120 14.4N 106.6W 995 39
0000UTC 17.09.2018 132 15.2N 108.0W 990 46
1200UTC 17.09.2018 144 16.0N 109.5W 985 53

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 31.6N 60.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2018 120 31.6N 61.4W 1008 34
0000UTC 17.09.2018 132 30.7N 64.7W 1005 35
1200UTC 17.09.2018 144 30.3N 67.0W 1002 39


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111607

2018-09-11 18:32

WTNT80 EGRR 111607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 89.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.8N 89.8W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 64.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2018 26.6N 64.7W STRONG
00UTC 12.09.2018 27.9N 68.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 29.4N 71.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 31.4N 73.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 33.3N 75.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 34.3N 76.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 34.7N 76.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 35.2N 76.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 35.1N 77.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 34.7N 79.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2018 35.0N 81.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2018 36.8N 84.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2018 39.2N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 34.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2018 16.0N 34.0W STRONG
00UTC 12.09.2018 17.4N 34.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 19.2N 36.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 21.2N 36.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.0N 37.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 25.1N 37.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 27.6N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 30.8N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 34.3N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 37.1N 31.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 39.0N 28.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 40.9N 24.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 44.7N 20.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 49.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2018 14.4N 49.0W MODERATE
00UTC 12.09.2018 14.0N 51.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 13.9N 52.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 14.4N 55.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 14.7N 57.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 14.7N 60.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 14.7N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 15.0N 66.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 15.1N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 15.6N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 15.6N 73.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 16.4N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 17.2N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 150.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.8N 150.9W MODERATE
00UTC 12.09.2018 21.2N 153.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 20.9N 155.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 19.6N 159.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 18.9N 162.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 18.5N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 18.5N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 18.6N 169.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 19.1N 171.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 20.3N 173.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 21.5N 176.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 22.0N 178.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 22.2N 179.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 124.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.9N 124.0W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 22.7N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 22.7N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.1N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 22.8N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 22.5N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 37.0N 40.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2018 36.4N 39.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 36.4N 40.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 34.8N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 34.2N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 34.0N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 34.2N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 34.7N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 35.0N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 35.6N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 36.4N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 26.5N 96.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2018 27.2N 97.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 27.7N 99.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 28.6N 100.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.6N 102.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2018 12.4N 103.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 13.6N 105.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 14.4N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 15.2N 108.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2018 16.0N 109.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 31.6N 60.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2018 31.6N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 30.7N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2018 30.3N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111607

2018-09-11 17:32

WTPZ43 KNHC 111443
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2018

THE CENTER OF PAUL REMAINS TO THE EAST OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A CONSEQUENCE OF PERSISTENTLY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES. SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS PAUL MOVES INTO
A STABLE, DRIER AIR MASS AND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTION WILL CEASE
TOMORROW, AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS INDICATED AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/10
KT. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN 36 HOURS AS THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES SHALLOW AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. THE SOUTHWARD MODEL TREND FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 22.3N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-11 17:32

WTPZ33 KNHC 111443
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...PAUL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 124.1W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19
KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-11 17:32

WTPZ23 KNHC 111442
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 124.1W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 124.1W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 124.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-11 17:32

WTPN32 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 123.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 123.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.5N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.8N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.1N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.2N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.0N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 124.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 718 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND
121600Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-11 12:36

WTPN32 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 122.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 122.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.2N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.5N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.8N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.0N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.2N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.2N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 123.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND
121000Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-11 11:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 110835
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2018

PAUL'S SURFACE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE DECOUPLED WELL TO THE
EAST OF A RATHER SHAPELESS CONVECTIVE MASS THAT PERSISTS ONLY AS A
RESULT OF INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE'S
INTENSITY IS HELD AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE
TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PAUL WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE, DRIER
AIR MASS AND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT FURTHER WEAKENING, AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS, WHICH IS INDICATED IN THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 295/10
KT, WITHIN THE STEERING CURRENT PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. A SLOW TURN WESTWARD IS FORECAST IN 36 HOURS AS THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES VERTICALLY MORE SHALLOW AND IS STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
AGAIN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO CONFORM MORE
WITH THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 21.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 22.5N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 23.0N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z 23.2N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z 23.2N 132.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-11 11:35

WTPZ33 KNHC 110834
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...POORLY ORGANIZED PAUL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 123.1W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-11 11:35

WTPZ23 KNHC 110834
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 123.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 123.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.5N 126.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 128.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.2N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.2N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 123.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-11 06:35

WTPN32 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 21.4N 121.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 121.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.9N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.3N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.6N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.9N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.2N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.2N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.0N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 122.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 719 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND
120400Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-11 06:35

WTNT82 EGRR 110408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 61.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2018 0 25.6N 61.9W 965 74
1200UTC 11.09.2018 12 26.4N 65.0W 964 72
0000UTC 12.09.2018 24 27.6N 68.4W 961 77
1200UTC 12.09.2018 36 28.9N 71.1W 950 83
0000UTC 13.09.2018 48 31.0N 73.6W 944 84
1200UTC 13.09.2018 60 32.7N 75.9W 933 90
0000UTC 14.09.2018 72 33.9N 77.2W 930 93
1200UTC 14.09.2018 84 34.6N 77.9W 956 74
0000UTC 15.09.2018 96 35.3N 77.8W 973 53
1200UTC 15.09.2018 108 35.6N 78.6W 982 34
0000UTC 16.09.2018 120 35.7N 80.2W 991 27
1200UTC 16.09.2018 132 36.7N 83.0W 1001 18
0000UTC 17.09.2018 144 39.0N 84.6W 1004 19

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 32.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2018 0 15.0N 32.1W 966 69
1200UTC 11.09.2018 12 15.8N 33.8W 965 71
0000UTC 12.09.2018 24 17.1N 34.8W 964 70
1200UTC 12.09.2018 36 18.9N 35.8W 972 67
0000UTC 13.09.2018 48 21.0N 36.4W 982 60
1200UTC 13.09.2018 60 22.8N 37.0W 992 45
0000UTC 14.09.2018 72 24.5N 36.8W 998 37
1200UTC 14.09.2018 84 26.3N 36.5W 1001 32
0000UTC 15.09.2018 96 28.4N 35.6W 1004 30
1200UTC 15.09.2018 108 30.3N 34.0W 1008 29
0000UTC 16.09.2018 120 33.2N 31.9W 1010 29
1200UTC 16.09.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 46.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2018 0 14.5N 46.0W 993 57
1200UTC 11.09.2018 12 14.1N 48.5W 992 60
0000UTC 12.09.2018 24 14.0N 50.0W 989 65
1200UTC 12.09.2018 36 14.2N 51.4W 986 66
0000UTC 13.09.2018 48 14.7N 52.8W 986 71
1200UTC 13.09.2018 60 15.2N 54.6W 987 68
0000UTC 14.09.2018 72 15.7N 56.0W 983 63
1200UTC 14.09.2018 84 16.4N 57.8W 977 65
0000UTC 15.09.2018 96 16.9N 59.3W 978 69
1200UTC 15.09.2018 108 18.0N 60.0W 975 66
0000UTC 16.09.2018 120 19.8N 59.7W 973 71
1200UTC 16.09.2018 132 22.2N 58.7W 966 74
0000UTC 17.09.2018 144 25.0N 57.3W 960 81

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 149.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2018 0 22.2N 149.0W 982 62
1200UTC 11.09.2018 12 21.7N 151.5W 995 49
0000UTC 12.09.2018 24 21.1N 154.1W 1001 41
1200UTC 12.09.2018 36 20.8N 157.1W 1005 44
0000UTC 13.09.2018 48 19.2N 159.6W 1005 31
1200UTC 13.09.2018 60 18.5N 162.4W 1006 31
0000UTC 14.09.2018 72 18.0N 164.6W 1005 30
1200UTC 14.09.2018 84 17.5N 166.9W 1006 34
0000UTC 15.09.2018 96 17.8N 169.0W 1005 32
1200UTC 15.09.2018 108 18.3N 171.0W 1006 31
0000UTC 16.09.2018 120 19.5N 173.2W 1006 32
1200UTC 16.09.2018 132 20.6N 175.8W 1006 35
0000UTC 17.09.2018 144 21.4N 178.7W 1004 35

TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 121.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2018 0 21.3N 121.6W 1002 27
1200UTC 11.09.2018 12 22.2N 123.9W 1003 28
0000UTC 12.09.2018 24 22.2N 126.1W 1005 27
1200UTC 12.09.2018 36 22.6N 128.0W 1007 23
0000UTC 13.09.2018 48 22.7N 129.6W 1008 23
1200UTC 13.09.2018 60 23.1N 130.8W 1009 23
0000UTC 14.09.2018 72 22.8N 131.5W 1009 23
1200UTC 14.09.2018 84 22.6N 131.6W 1010 21
0000UTC 15.09.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 37.2N 38.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 36 37.5N 39.4W 1012 40
0000UTC 13.09.2018 48 36.7N 41.3W 1009 38
1200UTC 13.09.2018 60 35.5N 41.7W 1005 36
0000UTC 14.09.2018 72 35.8N 41.0W 1002 34
1200UTC 14.09.2018 84 37.6N 40.1W 999 31
0000UTC 15.09.2018 96 38.6N 40.3W 990 43
1200UTC 15.09.2018 108 39.2N 39.6W 991 40
0000UTC 16.09.2018 120 39.2N 39.1W 994 36
1200UTC 16.09.2018 132 39.7N 37.2W 993 43
0000UTC 17.09.2018 144 40.7N 33.5W 985 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.6N 103.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2018 108 13.6N 103.1W 1002 30
0000UTC 16.09.2018 120 14.2N 104.8W 998 34
1200UTC 16.09.2018 132 15.5N 107.1W 994 44
0000UTC 17.09.2018 144 15.8N 108.7W 988 51


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110408

2018-09-11 06:35

WTNT80 EGRR 110408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 61.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2018 25.6N 61.9W STRONG
12UTC 11.09.2018 26.4N 65.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 27.6N 68.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 28.9N 71.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 31.0N 73.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 32.7N 75.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 33.9N 77.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 34.6N 77.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 35.3N 77.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 35.6N 78.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 35.7N 80.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2018 36.7N 83.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2018 39.0N 84.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 32.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2018 15.0N 32.1W STRONG
12UTC 11.09.2018 15.8N 33.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 17.1N 34.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 18.9N 35.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 21.0N 36.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 22.8N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 24.5N 36.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 26.3N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 28.4N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 30.3N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 33.2N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 46.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2018 14.5N 46.0W MODERATE
12UTC 11.09.2018 14.1N 48.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 14.0N 50.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 14.2N 51.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 14.7N 52.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 15.2N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 15.7N 56.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 16.4N 57.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 16.9N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 18.0N 60.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 19.8N 59.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 22.2N 58.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2018 25.0N 57.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 149.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2018 22.2N 149.0W MODERATE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.7N 151.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 21.1N 154.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 20.8N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 19.2N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 18.5N 162.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 18.0N 164.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 17.5N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 17.8N 169.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 18.3N 171.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 19.5N 173.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 20.6N 175.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 21.4N 178.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 121.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2018 21.3N 121.6W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2018 22.2N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 22.6N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 22.7N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 22.8N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 22.6N 131.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 37.2N 38.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2018 37.5N 39.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 36.7N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 35.5N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 35.8N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 37.6N 40.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 38.6N 40.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 39.2N 39.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 39.2N 39.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 39.7N 37.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2018 40.7N 33.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.6N 103.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2018 13.6N 103.1W WEAK
00UTC 16.09.2018 14.2N 104.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2018 15.5N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2018 15.8N 108.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110408

2018-09-11 05:32

WTPZ43 KNHC 110246
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 PM PDT MON SEP 10 2018

PAUL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED FROM ALL AGENCIES. BASED ON THAT
DATA, PAUL IS NOW DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
LESSEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PAUL WILL SOON CROSS THE 26
DEG C ISOTHERM AND IT WILL BE HEADED FOR EVEN COOLER WATERS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT
CONTINUED WEAKENING, AND PAUL WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS OR LESS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 300/8 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 21.6N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-11 05:32

WTPZ33 KNHC 110245
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 PM PDT MON SEP 10 2018

...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 122.0W
ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15
KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-11 05:32

WTPZ23 KNHC 110245
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 121.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 122.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-11 00:33

WTPN32 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 120.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 120.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.8N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.2N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.6N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.9N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.5N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.5N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.5N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 121.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-10 23:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 102034 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 PM PDT MON SEP 10 2018

PAUL CONTINUES TO HAVE A RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A
LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES
SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF JUST BELOW TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE, SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KT, ASSUMING AT LEAST A
LITTLE UNDERSAMPLING MAY HAVE OCCURRED DUE TO LIMITATIONS OF THE
INSTRUMENT. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
WEAKENING, AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TONIGHT, AND A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE
COLD SSTS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF PAUL, IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
PAUL COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST. PAUL IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 315/9 KT, BUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD
BEGIN SHORTLY AS PAUL IS STEERED INCREASINGLY BY LOW-LEVEL
TRADE-WIND FLOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF PAUL SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 21.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 21.8N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 23.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

2018-09-10 23:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 102034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018

Paul continues to have a rather ragged appearance in satellite
imagery. The low-level center is completely exposed to the east of a
limited area of deep convection. A pair of recent ASCAT passes
showed maximum winds of just below tropical-storm-force, so the
initial intensity has been held at 35 kt, assuming at least a
little undersampling may have occurred due to limitations of the
instrument. All of the intensity guidance continues to show
weakening, and Paul is forecast to become a tropical depression
later tonight, and a remnant low within the next few days. Given the
cold SSTs and dry air ahead of Paul, it is certainly possible that
Paul could become a remnant low or dissipate sooner than currently
forecast.

No major changes have been made to the previous official track
forecast. Paul is still moving toward the northwest with an initial
motion of 315/9 kt, but a turn toward the west-northwest should
begin shortly as Paul is steered increasingly by low-level
trade-wind flow. By the end of the forecast period, the remnant
circulation of Paul should slow down and turn westward. The new
official track forecast is basically a blend of the previous
forecast and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 21.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 21.8N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 23.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

2018-09-10 23:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 102033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 PM PDT MON SEP 10 2018

...PAUL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 121.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THE TROPICAL
STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS

2018-09-10 22:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 102009
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 121.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 121.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 127.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS

2018-09-10 18:33

WTPN32 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 120.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 120.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.4N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.9N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.3N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.7N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.5N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.8N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 120.8W.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 752 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-10 18:33

WTNT82 EGRR 101610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 59.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2018 0 24.9N 59.3W 979 63
0000UTC 11.09.2018 12 25.5N 61.6W 978 58
1200UTC 11.09.2018 24 26.5N 64.7W 977 61
0000UTC 12.09.2018 36 28.0N 67.7W 972 66
1200UTC 12.09.2018 48 29.4N 70.8W 957 77
0000UTC 13.09.2018 60 31.5N 73.0W 947 84
1200UTC 13.09.2018 72 33.3N 75.2W 938 87
0000UTC 14.09.2018 84 34.4N 76.9W 931 87
1200UTC 14.09.2018 96 35.2N 77.8W 964 57
0000UTC 15.09.2018 108 36.1N 78.0W 981 42
1200UTC 15.09.2018 120 37.0N 78.3W 986 41
0000UTC 16.09.2018 132 37.7N 79.1W 997 30
1200UTC 16.09.2018 144 39.2N 79.9W 1002 28

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 29.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2018 0 14.2N 29.5W 971 69
0000UTC 11.09.2018 12 15.1N 32.1W 962 68
1200UTC 11.09.2018 24 15.9N 34.1W 959 75
0000UTC 12.09.2018 36 17.2N 35.2W 962 72
1200UTC 12.09.2018 48 18.9N 36.0W 969 68
0000UTC 13.09.2018 60 21.4N 36.4W 974 68
1200UTC 13.09.2018 72 23.1N 36.7W 989 50
0000UTC 14.09.2018 84 24.7N 36.1W 997 42
1200UTC 14.09.2018 96 26.1N 35.0W 1000 35
0000UTC 15.09.2018 108 27.6N 34.2W 1004 31
1200UTC 15.09.2018 120 29.4N 33.0W 1007 28
0000UTC 16.09.2018 132 31.7N 30.5W 1009 29
1200UTC 16.09.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 43.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2018 0 14.4N 43.3W 979 66
0000UTC 11.09.2018 12 14.4N 45.9W 981 65
1200UTC 11.09.2018 24 14.2N 47.9W 976 72
0000UTC 12.09.2018 36 14.4N 49.4W 978 70
1200UTC 12.09.2018 48 14.7N 50.8W 977 73
0000UTC 13.09.2018 60 15.4N 52.0W 980 67
1200UTC 13.09.2018 72 16.2N 53.7W 979 64
0000UTC 14.09.2018 84 17.2N 55.4W 975 62
1200UTC 14.09.2018 96 18.0N 57.4W 973 75
0000UTC 15.09.2018 108 18.9N 58.6W 976 66
1200UTC 15.09.2018 120 20.3N 59.1W 972 70
0000UTC 16.09.2018 132 22.8N 58.6W 960 79
1200UTC 16.09.2018 144 26.0N 58.0W 945 84

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 147.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2018 0 21.9N 147.5W 990 54
0000UTC 11.09.2018 12 21.8N 149.3W 992 51
1200UTC 11.09.2018 24 21.4N 151.4W 998 47
0000UTC 12.09.2018 36 20.8N 153.9W 1002 39
1200UTC 12.09.2018 48 20.7N 156.6W 1005 45
0000UTC 13.09.2018 60 19.5N 159.4W 1006 32
1200UTC 13.09.2018 72 18.7N 162.4W 1007 31
0000UTC 14.09.2018 84 18.4N 164.7W 1006 29
1200UTC 14.09.2018 96 18.4N 167.1W 1006 33
0000UTC 15.09.2018 108 18.9N 169.5W 1006 30
1200UTC 15.09.2018 120 20.0N 171.6W 1007 32
0000UTC 16.09.2018 132 21.9N 174.2W 1007 35
1200UTC 16.09.2018 144 24.2N 177.1W 1007 38

TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2018 0 20.0N 119.7W 1003 25
0000UTC 11.09.2018 12 21.0N 121.2W 1003 26
1200UTC 11.09.2018 24 21.4N 123.5W 1005 26
0000UTC 12.09.2018 36 22.2N 125.3W 1006 24
1200UTC 12.09.2018 48 22.4N 127.1W 1008 22
0000UTC 13.09.2018 60 22.5N 128.3W 1009 22
1200UTC 13.09.2018 72 23.2N 129.3W 1010 21
0000UTC 14.09.2018 84 23.2N 129.8W 1010 21
1200UTC 14.09.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 37.0N 40.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2018 72 37.0N 40.3W 1005 39
0000UTC 14.09.2018 84 36.5N 39.2W 999 38
1200UTC 14.09.2018 96 37.7N 38.6W 998 32
0000UTC 15.09.2018 108 38.4N 37.3W 997 35
1200UTC 15.09.2018 120 40.0N 34.9W 998 34
0000UTC 16.09.2018 132 40.8N 33.5W 999 37
1200UTC 16.09.2018 144 39.2N 32.8W 995 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 25.4N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2018 96 25.4N 96.2W 1007 23
0000UTC 15.09.2018 108 26.4N 97.4W 1005 27
1200UTC 15.09.2018 120 27.0N 98.9W 1004 23
0000UTC 16.09.2018 132 27.6N 100.1W 1002 23
1200UTC 16.09.2018 144 28.0N 101.3W 1003 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.0N 104.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2018 132 13.6N 105.1W 1001 31
1200UTC 16.09.2018 144 14.1N 107.6W 997 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101610

2018-09-10 18:33

WTNT80 EGRR 101610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 59.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2018 24.9N 59.3W STRONG
00UTC 11.09.2018 25.5N 61.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 26.5N 64.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 28.0N 67.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 29.4N 70.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 31.5N 73.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 33.3N 75.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 34.4N 76.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 35.2N 77.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 36.1N 78.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 37.0N 78.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 37.7N 79.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2018 39.2N 79.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 29.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2018 14.2N 29.5W STRONG
00UTC 11.09.2018 15.1N 32.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 15.9N 34.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 17.2N 35.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 18.9N 36.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 21.4N 36.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.1N 36.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 24.7N 36.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 26.1N 35.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 27.6N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 29.4N 33.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 31.7N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 43.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2018 14.4N 43.3W STRONG
00UTC 11.09.2018 14.4N 45.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 47.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 14.4N 49.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 14.7N 50.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 15.4N 52.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 16.2N 53.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 17.2N 55.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 18.0N 57.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 18.9N 58.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 20.3N 59.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 22.8N 58.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2018 26.0N 58.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 147.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2018 21.9N 147.5W MODERATE
00UTC 11.09.2018 21.8N 149.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.4N 151.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 20.8N 153.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 20.7N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 19.5N 159.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 18.7N 162.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 18.4N 164.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 18.4N 167.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 18.9N 169.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 20.0N 171.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 21.9N 174.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 24.2N 177.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2018 20.0N 119.7W WEAK
00UTC 11.09.2018 21.0N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.4N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 22.4N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 22.5N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.2N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 23.2N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 37.0N 40.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2018 37.0N 40.3W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2018 36.5N 39.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 37.7N 38.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 38.4N 37.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 40.0N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 40.8N 33.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 39.2N 32.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 25.4N 96.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2018 25.4N 96.2W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2018 26.4N 97.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 27.0N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 27.6N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 28.0N 101.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.0N 104.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2018 13.6N 105.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2018 14.1N 107.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101610

2018-09-10 17:32

WTPZ43 KNHC 101437
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 AM PDT MON SEP 10 2018

PAUL CONTINUES TO HAVE ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND THERE IS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE
OF BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT,
WHICH IS A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, PAUL WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS AND OVER A COOLER
OCEAN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM IF FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS, IF NOT SOONER

THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE CENTER FIXES, SO THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 320/9 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THE NORTH OF
PAUL. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST, FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK
AN CLOSE TO THE CORRECT MODEL CONSENSUS, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 20.8N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 22.7N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 23.5N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 23.8N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-10 17:32

WTPZ33 KNHC 101437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 AM PDT MON SEP 10 2018

...PAUL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 120.7W
ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN A FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-10 17:32

WTPZ23 KNHC 101436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 120.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 120.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.7N 126.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 23.8N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 24.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-10 11:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 100845 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 AM PDT MON SEP 10 2018

PAUL'S POORLY DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO
THE EAST OF AN INTERMITTENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 0448 UTC
ASCAT-A PASS COVERING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE SHOWED ONLY 30 KT
WINDS. BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER PASS, AND A BLEND OF THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND AN EARLIER
0228 UTC SATCON ANALYSIS OF 37 KT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 35 KT.

THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES 15-20 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IMPEDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE DECAY SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DIMINISHING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO, HOWEVER, PAUL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, WEAKENING IS
FORECAST IN 36 HOURS, OR LESS, AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE NOAA-HCCA AND IVCN
CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE A BIT ERRATICALLY
THIS MORNING, BUT THE 12 HOUR MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN NORTHWESTWARD,
OR 320/8 KT. PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH DAY 3, THEN
A TURN WESTWARD IS INDICATED AS THE VERTICALLY SHALLOWER CYCLONE
MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE LAST ONE, AND AGREES WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 20.1N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

2018-09-10 11:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 100845
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018

Paul's poorly defined surface circulation remains displaced well to
the east of an intermittent burst of deep convection. A 0448 UTC
ASCAT-A pass covering the western semicircle showed only 30 kt
winds. Based on the scatterometer pass, and a blend of the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier
0228 UTC SATCON analysis of 37 kt, the initial intensity is lowered
to 35 kt.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly
shear impeding the eastern side of the cyclone. The Decay SHIPS
intensity model shows the shear diminishing within the next 24 hours
or so, however, Paul will be moving over cooler waters and into a
more stable thermodynamic environment. Therefore, weakening is
forecast in 36 hours, or less, and Paul is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low in 3 days. The intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN
consensus models.

The exposed surface circulation continues to move a bit erratically
this morning, but the 12 hour motion is an uncertain northwestward,
or 320/8 kt. Paul should continue to move within the mid-level
steering flow produced by a ridge to the north through day 3, then
a turn westward is indicated as the vertically shallower cyclone
moves within the low-level trades. The NHC track forecast is an
update of the last one, and agrees with the various consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 20.1N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 20.8N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 22.5N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 23.4N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 23.6N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 23.6N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-10 11:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 100843
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 AM PDT MON SEP 10 2018

...PAUL WEAKER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 119.9W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-10 11:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 100843
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.8N 120.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.5N 125.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.4N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 23.6N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.6N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 119.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-10 11:34

WTPN32 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 19.8N 119.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 119.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.8N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.1N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.5N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.4N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.6N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.6N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 120.0W.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 786 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-10 06:33

WTNT82 EGRR 100405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 57.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2018 0 24.4N 57.4W 986 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 12 24.8N 59.3W 987 54
0000UTC 11.09.2018 24 25.6N 61.4W 983 55
1200UTC 11.09.2018 36 26.7N 64.2W 979 64
0000UTC 12.09.2018 48 28.4N 67.5W 971 70
1200UTC 12.09.2018 60 30.3N 70.8W 955 80
0000UTC 13.09.2018 72 32.2N 72.9W 945 79
1200UTC 13.09.2018 84 33.8N 74.7W 943 88
0000UTC 14.09.2018 96 35.0N 75.7W 930 94
1200UTC 14.09.2018 108 35.7N 76.3W 949 81
0000UTC 15.09.2018 120 36.4N 76.4W 961 74
1200UTC 15.09.2018 132 36.8N 76.9W 974 64
0000UTC 16.09.2018 144 37.2N 77.4W 988 54

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 26.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2018 0 13.5N 26.7W 988 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 12 14.1N 29.3W 978 61
0000UTC 11.09.2018 24 15.2N 31.9W 971 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 36 16.1N 34.1W 970 65
0000UTC 12.09.2018 48 17.2N 35.4W 968 65
1200UTC 12.09.2018 60 18.8N 36.5W 970 65
0000UTC 13.09.2018 72 21.1N 37.1W 972 69
1200UTC 13.09.2018 84 23.2N 37.5W 978 62
0000UTC 14.09.2018 96 24.8N 37.0W 992 46
1200UTC 14.09.2018 108 25.9N 36.6W 998 36
0000UTC 15.09.2018 120 27.0N 35.8W 1002 32
1200UTC 15.09.2018 132 27.4N 35.4W 1006 26
0000UTC 16.09.2018 144 28.0N 34.6W 1010 25

HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 40.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2018 0 14.2N 40.9W 994 42
1200UTC 10.09.2018 12 14.3N 43.4W 992 58
0000UTC 11.09.2018 24 14.2N 45.5W 990 55
1200UTC 11.09.2018 36 14.2N 47.6W 987 65
0000UTC 12.09.2018 48 14.4N 49.4W 988 63
1200UTC 12.09.2018 60 14.5N 51.2W 988 65
0000UTC 13.09.2018 72 15.0N 52.5W 984 67
1200UTC 13.09.2018 84 15.5N 54.4W 987 62
0000UTC 14.09.2018 96 16.4N 55.6W 982 61
1200UTC 14.09.2018 108 17.8N 57.4W 978 60
0000UTC 15.09.2018 120 19.1N 59.3W 977 66
1200UTC 15.09.2018 132 20.5N 60.2W 975 62
0000UTC 16.09.2018 144 22.5N 60.0W 970 70

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 145.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2018 0 21.8N 145.6W 981 59
1200UTC 10.09.2018 12 21.7N 147.2W 987 58
0000UTC 11.09.2018 24 21.7N 148.8W 988 56
1200UTC 11.09.2018 36 21.2N 150.7W 994 52
0000UTC 12.09.2018 48 20.5N 153.1W 1000 42
1200UTC 12.09.2018 60 20.1N 154.9W 1002 44
0000UTC 13.09.2018 72 19.2N 158.4W 1005 33
1200UTC 13.09.2018 84 18.5N 160.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 14.09.2018 96 18.2N 163.3W 1006 27
1200UTC 14.09.2018 108 18.4N 165.3W 1006 31
0000UTC 15.09.2018 120 19.0N 168.0W 1006 32
1200UTC 15.09.2018 132 19.8N 170.9W 1007 32
0000UTC 16.09.2018 144 20.8N 173.7W 1007 33

TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 118.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2018 0 19.0N 118.9W 1002 25
1200UTC 10.09.2018 12 19.7N 120.2W 1003 24
0000UTC 11.09.2018 24 20.9N 121.3W 1003 26
1200UTC 11.09.2018 36 21.2N 122.8W 1004 27
0000UTC 12.09.2018 48 21.7N 124.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 12.09.2018 60 22.2N 126.1W 1008 24
0000UTC 13.09.2018 72 22.6N 127.5W 1008 22
1200UTC 13.09.2018 84 23.3N 128.5W 1010 20
0000UTC 14.09.2018 96 23.3N 128.9W 1010 21
1200UTC 14.09.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 37.0N 38.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 60 37.0N 38.2W 1014 35
0000UTC 13.09.2018 72 37.8N 39.1W 1010 36
1200UTC 13.09.2018 84 37.3N 39.4W 1006 38
0000UTC 14.09.2018 96 38.7N 37.5W 999 39
1200UTC 14.09.2018 108 39.0N 37.5W 988 55
0000UTC 15.09.2018 120 39.9N 34.9W 988 43
1200UTC 15.09.2018 132 40.6N 31.2W 990 42
0000UTC 16.09.2018 144 41.9N 27.1W 985 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 37.2N 56.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2018 120 35.9N 56.4W 1011 29
1200UTC 15.09.2018 132 34.0N 59.0W 1010 28
0000UTC 16.09.2018 144 32.7N 61.5W 1009 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.2N 103.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2018 132 12.9N 104.2W 1000 32
0000UTC 16.09.2018 144 14.2N 106.4W 995 44


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100405

2018-09-10 06:33

WTNT80 EGRR 100405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 57.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2018 24.4N 57.4W MODERATE
12UTC 10.09.2018 24.8N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 25.6N 61.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 26.7N 64.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 28.4N 67.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 30.3N 70.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 32.2N 72.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 33.8N 74.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 35.0N 75.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 35.7N 76.3W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 36.4N 76.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 36.8N 76.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 37.2N 77.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 26.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2018 13.5N 26.7W MODERATE
12UTC 10.09.2018 14.1N 29.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2018 15.2N 31.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 16.1N 34.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 17.2N 35.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 18.8N 36.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 21.1N 37.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.2N 37.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 24.8N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 25.9N 36.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 27.0N 35.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 27.4N 35.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 28.0N 34.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 40.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2018 14.2N 40.9W MODERATE
12UTC 10.09.2018 14.3N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 45.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 14.4N 49.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 14.5N 51.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 15.0N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 15.5N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 16.4N 55.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 17.8N 57.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 19.1N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 20.5N 60.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 22.5N 60.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 145.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2018 21.8N 145.6W MODERATE
12UTC 10.09.2018 21.7N 147.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2018 21.7N 148.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.2N 150.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 20.5N 153.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 20.1N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 19.2N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 18.5N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 18.2N 163.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 18.4N 165.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 19.0N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 19.8N 170.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 20.8N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 118.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2018 19.0N 118.9W WEAK
12UTC 10.09.2018 19.7N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 20.9N 121.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.2N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 21.7N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 22.6N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.3N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 23.3N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 37.0N 38.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2018 37.0N 38.2W WEAK
00UTC 13.09.2018 37.8N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 37.3N 39.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 38.7N 37.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 39.0N 37.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 39.9N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 40.6N 31.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 41.9N 27.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 37.2N 56.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2018 35.9N 56.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 34.0N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 32.7N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.2N 103.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2018 12.9N 104.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2018 14.2N 106.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100405

2018-09-10 05:32

WTPZ43 KNHC 100231
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 09 2018

PAUL IS LOOKING VERY RAGGED THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED, WITH THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED ABOUT 70 N MI TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
HELD AT 40 KT, DEFERRING TO EARLIER ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED A WIDE
SWATH OF 35-40 KT WINDS. GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF PAUL, ANY
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY, SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS NOW
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY DAY 4, A COMBINATION OF
COLD SSTS AND DRY, STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS FASTER WEAKENING THAN
BEFORE, AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 120 H.

THE LOW-LEVEL SWIRL THAT MAKES UP MOST OF PAUL HAS WOBBLED A BIT
THIS EVENING, BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL
NORTHWESTWARD, OR 320/9 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PAUL WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO, BEFORE
GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES A
REMNANT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 19.4N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 20.4N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 21.2N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 23.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z 23.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-10 05:32

WTPZ33 KNHC 100230
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 09 2018

...PAUL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 119.4W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-10 05:32

WTPZ23 KNHC 100230
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.4W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.4W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.2N 121.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.5N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 119.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-10 05:32

WTPN32 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 119.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 119.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.4N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.2N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.9N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.4N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.1N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.5N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.5N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 119.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 824 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-10 00:34

WTPN32 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 118.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 118.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.5N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.5N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.4N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.9N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.8N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.5N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.5N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 118.9W.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 873 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-09 23:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 092031 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 09 2018

ASCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY BEFORE 1800 UTC INDICATED THAT PAUL WAS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, WITH SEVERAL 35-40 KT
VECTORS OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT. IN AN EFFORT TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY, AND SINCE THE ASCAT DATA NEARLY SUPPORTS
45 KT, VERY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
H, BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS REALISTICALLY EXPECTED.
BEGINNING IN A DAY OR TWO, A COMBINATION OF DRY, STABLE AIR, AND
DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, EVENTUALLY
CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT IS STILL NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PAUL COULD WEAKEN
SOONER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

PAUL HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY BUT IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, NOW AT
AROUND 9 KT. ALMOST NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST. PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO
THE NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT 72 H, AT WHICH POINT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES MAINLY
RELATED TO HOW FAST THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN. THE NHC FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO HCCA AND THE OTHER CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-09-09 23:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 092031
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC indicated that Paul was
slightly stronger than previously estimated, with several 35-40 kt
vectors observed in the southeast quadrant. Based on this data, the
initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. In an effort to
maintain some continuity, and since the ASCAT data nearly supports
45 kt, very slight strengthening is still forecast over the next 24
h, but little change in strength is realistically expected.
Beginning in a day or two, a combination of dry, stable air, and
decreasing SSTs should cause Paul to gradually weaken, eventually
causing the cyclone to become a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous one, but is still near the high end of the
intensity guidance. It is certainly possible Paul could weaken
sooner than currently indicated.

Paul has sped up slightly but is still moving northwestward, now at
around 9 kt. Almost no change has been made to the official track
forecast. Paul should continue moving northwestward for the next
day or so, before gradually turning toward the west as the weakening
cyclone becomes increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow to
the north. The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement
through about 72 h, at which point there are differences mainly
related to how fast the cyclone will weaken. The NHC forecast
remains close to HCCA and the other consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 18.5N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 19.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 20.5N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 21.4N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 21.9N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 22.8N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 23.5N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-09 23:35

WTPZ33 KNHC 092031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 09 2018

...PAUL SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT LITTLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 118.7W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-09 23:35

WTPZ23 KNHC 092031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.5N 119.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 120.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.4N 122.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.9N 124.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 118.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-09 18:33

WTNT82 EGRR 091606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 55.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 24.4N 55.9W 986 60
0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 24.4N 57.4W 981 62
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 24.8N 59.3W 972 65
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 25.6N 61.5W 972 68
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 26.5N 64.6W 965 73
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 27.7N 67.9W 958 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 29.1N 71.0W 953 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 31.1N 73.4W 948 81
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 32.8N 75.5W 942 86
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 34.2N 76.9W 928 91
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 34.9N 78.3W 962 54
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 35.5N 79.1W 983 37
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 36.4N 79.2W 990 29

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 24.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 13.1N 24.4W 997 42
0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 13.9N 26.7W 993 47
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 14.2N 29.5W 987 55
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 15.3N 31.9W 983 57
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 16.5N 33.9W 979 55
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 17.8N 35.3W 974 63
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 19.6N 36.4W 971 65
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 22.3N 37.0W 975 66
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 25.0N 37.5W 988 54
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 27.8N 37.0W 993 47
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 31.3N 35.6W 986 64
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 34.5N 32.3W 985 55
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 37.8N 29.0W 975 62

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 38.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 14.2N 38.7W 999 36
0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 14.4N 40.9W 998 38
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 14.3N 43.3W 997 47
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 14.2N 45.5W 996 47
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 14.2N 47.6W 993 57
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 14.3N 49.3W 990 60
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 14.4N 50.9W 985 66
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 15.1N 51.8W 982 66
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 15.9N 53.1W 983 60
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 17.3N 53.9W 979 62
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 18.9N 55.4W 977 65
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 20.6N 56.4W 975 61
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 23.1N 56.0W 968 66

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 143.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 21.7N 143.1W 984 56
0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 21.4N 145.6W 985 52
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 21.4N 147.5W 989 53
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 21.4N 149.3W 990 56
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 20.7N 151.4W 996 51
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 19.9N 153.5W 1000 42
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 19.4N 154.8W 1002 41
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 18.2N 157.8W 1006 34
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 18.2N 160.8W 1007 27
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 17.9N 163.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 18.0N 165.4W 1008 27
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 18.6N 167.7W 1008 30
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 118.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 17.2N 118.4W 1001 25
0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 18.9N 118.9W 1001 27
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 19.5N 119.8W 1002 26
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 20.7N 121.6W 1002 26
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 21.8N 123.1W 1003 29
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 21.9N 124.7W 1004 29
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 22.4N 126.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 23.0N 127.3W 1007 22
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 23.8N 128.0W 1009 22
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 24.3N 128.2W 1009 23
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 25.2N 128.4W 1009 24
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 25.7N 128.2W 1009 26
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 26.2N 128.3W 1010 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.6N 42.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 36.6N 42.2W 1007 41
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 35.8N 42.7W 1003 36
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 36.4N 41.7W 1000 37
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 38.2N 41.2W 990 42
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 38.9N 40.1W 986 44
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 38.4N 38.2W 995 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.7N 99.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 12.4N 100.7W 1002 27
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 12.7N 102.6W 999 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.6N 51.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 35.4N 51.1W 1006 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091606

2018-09-09 18:33

WTNT80 EGRR 091606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 55.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2018 24.4N 55.9W MODERATE
00UTC 10.09.2018 24.4N 57.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2018 24.8N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2018 25.6N 61.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 26.5N 64.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 27.7N 67.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 29.1N 71.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 31.1N 73.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 32.8N 75.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 34.2N 76.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 34.9N 78.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 35.5N 79.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 36.4N 79.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 24.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2018 13.1N 24.4W MODERATE
00UTC 10.09.2018 13.9N 26.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 14.2N 29.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2018 15.3N 31.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 16.5N 33.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 17.8N 35.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 19.6N 36.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 22.3N 37.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 25.0N 37.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 27.8N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 31.3N 35.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 34.5N 32.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 37.8N 29.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 38.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2018 14.2N 38.7W MODERATE
00UTC 10.09.2018 14.4N 40.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 14.3N 43.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 45.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 14.3N 49.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 14.4N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 15.1N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 15.9N 53.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 17.3N 53.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 18.9N 55.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 20.6N 56.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 23.1N 56.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 143.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2018 21.7N 143.1W MODERATE
00UTC 10.09.2018 21.4N 145.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 21.4N 147.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 21.4N 149.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 20.7N 151.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 19.9N 153.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 19.4N 154.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 18.2N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 18.2N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 17.9N 163.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 18.0N 165.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 18.6N 167.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 118.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2018 17.2N 118.4W WEAK
00UTC 10.09.2018 18.9N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 19.5N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 20.7N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.8N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 21.9N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 22.4N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 23.0N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.8N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 24.3N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 25.2N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2018 25.7N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 26.2N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.6N 42.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2018 36.6N 42.2W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2018 35.8N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 36.4N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 38.2N 41.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2018 38.9N 40.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2018 38.4N 38.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.7N 99.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2018 12.4N 100.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 12.7N 102.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.6N 51.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2018 35.4N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091606

2018-09-09 17:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 091442
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 09 2018

PAUL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED
ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS, WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS BEING INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PAUL WILL THEN BE MOVING OVER
MARGINAL SSTS AND INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BELOW THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT ABOVE MOST OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.

PAUL IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, OR 320/7 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 17.9N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-09 17:33

WTPZ33 KNHC 091442
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 09 2018

...PAUL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 118.1W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H,) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-09 17:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 091440
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 118.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-09 17:33

WTPN32 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 117.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 117.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.9N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.1N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.1N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.8N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.8N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.7N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.5N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 118.2W.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 907 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-09 11:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 090843 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 09 2018

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED. THE
CYCLONE HAS A LARGE CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT BANDING FEATURES REMAIN LIMITED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED
30-35 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THAT DATA AND
THE 2.5/35 KT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 35 KT, MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM PAUL.

PAUL WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY
BECAUSE OF CONTINUED MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD END IN A
FEW DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SSTS COOLER THAN 26 DEG C AND
INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS AGAIN NUDGED DOWNWARD, BUT IT STILL LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT PAUL HAS TURNED SHARPER TO THE
NORTHWEST THAN EXPECTED. SMOOTHING THROUGH THE FIXES YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/7. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME, PAUL
SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH AND THEN SLOW DOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHEN IT BECOMES SHALLOW AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN

2018-09-09 11:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 090843
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Satellite data indicate that depression has strengthened. The
cyclone has a large curved band that wraps across the western half
of the circulation, but banding features remain limited to the east
of the center. A partial ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed
30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant. Based on that data and
the 2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity
is increased to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Paul.

Paul will likely strengthen some more during the next couple of days
while it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist
environment. However, significant strengthening appears unlikely
because of continued moderate east-northeasterly shear during the
next day or so. The opportunity for intensification should end in a
few days when the system moves over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and
into a drier and more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast
is again nudged downward, but it still lies at the high end of the
model guidance.

Satellite fixes suggest that Paul has turned sharper to the
northwest than expected. Smoothing through the fixes yields an
initial motion estimate of 320/7. A continued northwestward motion
is expected during the next day or two. After that time, Paul
should turn to the west-northwest in response to a mid-level ridge
to its north and then slow down by the end of the forecast period
when it becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The
NHC track has been adjusted northward to account for the change in
the initial motion and position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 17.1N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 18.2N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 19.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 20.6N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 23.5N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 24.5N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-09 11:33

WTPN32 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 117.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 117.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.2N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.4N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.6N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.4N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.6N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.5N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.5N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 117.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 954 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091600Z, 092200Z, 100400Z AND 101000Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-09 08:48

WTPN32 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 117.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 117.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.0N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.3N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.6N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.5N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.8N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.7N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 117.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1008 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-09 05:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 090246 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN
IS DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 30-35 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD HAVE SOME
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR MAY NOT LET UP
MUCH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEYOND A FEW DAYS, THE WATER TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE
SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 26 DEG C. THESE UNFAVORABLE
OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE
A WEAKENING TREND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT STILL LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD BUT AT A SLOWER PACE THAN
BEFORE. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINING THAT MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
IS STEERED BY A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOMES SHALLOW, A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.

2018-09-09 05:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 090246
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

The depression has changed little during the past several hours. The
system remains sheared with the center located near the eastern edge
of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern
is due to about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear. The satellite
intensity estimates range between 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity
is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression should have some
opportunity to strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days while it
remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist environment.
However, the global models suggest that the shear may not let up
much during that time period, so only slow strengthening is
anticipated. Beyond a few days, the water temperatures beneath the
system are forecast to fall below 26 deg C. These unfavorable
oceanic conditions and a drier and more stable airmass should cause
a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than
the previous one, but still lies at the high end of the model
guidance.

The depression is still moving westward but at a slower pace than
before. The models all show the system turning northwestward
overnight and maintaining that motion during the next few days as it
is steered by a weakening mid-level ridge. Once the system moves
over cooler waters and becomes shallow, a turn to the west-northwest
is forecast as the cyclone is steered by the low-level flow. The
new NHC track is a little north of the previous one to come into
better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.1N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 19.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.7N 125.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 22.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 23.7N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-09 05:33

WTPZ33 KNHC 090243
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 117.2W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15
KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-09 05:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 090242
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 117.2W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 117.2W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.6N 120.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.8N 129.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.7N 132.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-09 00:33

WTPN32 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 116.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 116.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.5N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.6N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.9N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.0N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.3N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.5N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 116.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1033 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-08 23:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 082051 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION ON THE
EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS, WITH A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE CIRCULATION EXPOSED DUE TO SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE LAST ADVISORY, BUT THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM, SO THE
WINDS WILL STAY 30 KT. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED WHILE
THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 72 HOURS, THE WATER TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUITE A BIT AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN THIS CYCLE, PERHAPS DUE
TO EASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTING FOR A BIT LONGER. ONLY A SMALL
DECREASE WAS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT LONG RANGE, BUT
LATER ADVISORIES COULD BE LOWER IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO HELPED REPOSITION THE DEPRESSION ABOUT A
DEGREE WEST OF THE LAST ADVISORY. IRONICALLY, THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED, STILL 290/10 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
THEN THE DOMINANT EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS A FAIR DISTANCE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT TREND, RESULTING IN A LARGE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE
NHC FORECAST AFTER ABSORBING THE INITIAL POSITION CHANGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-09-08 23:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 082051
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

GOES-16 visible imagery shows the center of the depression on the
edge of a convective mass, with a large part of the eastern part of
the circulation exposed due to shear. Dvorak estimates are a
little higher than the last advisory, but the evidence is not strong
enough yet to upgrade the system to a tropical storm, so the
winds will stay 30 kt. Gradual strengthening is anticipated while
the cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate
shear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off
quite a bit and weakening should begin. The biggest change is that
the model guidance is considerably lower in this cycle, perhaps due
to easterly shear persisting for a bit longer. Only a small
decrease was made to the intensity forecast at long range, but
later advisories could be lower if model trends continue.

Visible imagery also helped reposition the depression about a
degree west of the last advisory. Ironically, the initial motion
estimate is unchanged, still 290/10 kt. A mid-level ridge over
Mexico should steer the system northwestward for the next day or so,
then the dominant eastern Pacific subtropical ridge is forecast to
turn the system back toward the west-northwest. Numerical guidance
is a fair distance west of the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast
follows that trend, resulting in a large westward adjustment to the
NHC forecast after absorbing the initial position change.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.6N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 19.9N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 22.3N 129.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-08 23:33

WTPZ33 KNHC 082048
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 116.8W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.8
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
(19 KM/H). A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-08 23:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 082048
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 116.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 116.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 117.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 118.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 121.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.3N 129.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 116.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-08 19:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 081719 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

CORRECTED WIND GUSTS FROM 12 HOURS TO 48 HOURS AND 120 HOURS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

2018-09-08 19:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 081719 CCA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

CORRECTED WIND GUSTS FROM 12 HOURS TO 48 HOURS AND 120 HOURS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-08 18:48

WTPN32 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081151ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 115.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 115.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.6N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.7N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.9N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.1N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.5N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.0N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.5N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 115.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1012 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 KNHC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21
PHNC 081200).//
NNNN

2018-09-08 17:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 081436 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
AFFECTING THE CYCLONE, WITH THE APPARENT CENTER ON THE NORTHEASTERN
SIDE OF A GROWING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS SET TO 30 KT, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM
TAFB. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS
OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
AFTER 72 HOURS, THE WATER TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO, BUT A LITTLE
ABOVE, THE MODEL CONSENSUS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LOW BIAS THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD FOR MANY EASTERN PACIFIC STORMS
THIS YEAR.

AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE
ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER
MEXICO. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED IN A
FEW DAYS DUE TO THE SYSTEM COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRIMARY
EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FOR A FIRST ADVISORY, THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ISN'T IN TERRIBLE DISAGREEMENT, SO THE NHC PREDICTION WILL
LIE NEAR CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AND CORRECTED-CONSENSUS
AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.1N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

2018-09-08 17:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 081436
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

The area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for several
days has enough organized deep convection this morning to be
classified as a tropical depression. Some northeasterly shear is
affecting the cyclone, with the apparent center on the northeastern
side of a growing area of deep convection. The initial wind speed
is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak classification from
TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast while the cyclone remains
over warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment.
After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and
weakening should begin. The NHC forecast is close to, but a little
above, the model consensus near peak intensity to account for the
low bias the model guidance has had for many eastern Pacific storms
this year.

An uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/10. All of the model
guidance turn the cyclone northwestward by tomorrow as the cyclone
rounds the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge located over
Mexico. A turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated in a
few days due to the system coming under the influence of the primary
eastern Pacific subtropical ridge. For a first advisory, the model
guidance isn't in terrible disagreement, so the NHC prediction will
lie near close to the various consensus and corrected-consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.1N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-08 17:33

WTPZ33 KNHC 081436
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BUSY 2018 SEASON...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 115.9W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.9
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
(19 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-08 17:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 081436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE