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2018-09-15 11:33

WTNT44 KNHC 150841
TCDAT4

Remnants Of Isaac Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Isaac over the past
few hours and was unable to identify a well-defined center. The
plane found multiple small and poorly-defined circulations embedded
within a larger area of weak and variable winds, well to the south
of the previous estimated center location. The plane also found that
the minimum pressure has risen to around 1006 mb. All of this data
confirmed what two late-arriving ASCAT overpasses from earlier this
evening indicated, that Isaac has opened up into a southwest to
northeast oriented trough. Since Isaac does not have a well-defined
center, it no longer meets the NHC definition of a tropical cyclone
and this is the last advisory.

The strongest SFMR winds found by the plane were around 30 kt,
mainly to the north of the deep convection, so the intensity has
been set at that value. Although some of the regional hurricane
models suggest that small short-lived circulations like the ones
found by the plane could temporarily spin up within the larger
envelope of the tropical wave over the next several days, none of
the dynamical models currently show any significant redevelopment of
Isaac. The wave will likely continue westward across the Caribbean
Sea over the next few days, producing gusty winds and occasional
heavy rains over portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Isaac. Additional information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available online at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 14.8N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-15 11:33

WTNT34 KNHC 150840
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Isaac Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATES ISAAC HAS DISSIPATED...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 70.8W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Isaac were located near
latitude 14.8 North, longitude 70.8 West.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnants of Isaac will likely continue to produce gusty winds
and occasional heavy rains while moving westward across the central
and western Caribbean during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
south-central portion of the Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and
most of Jamaica. This rainfall, especially in mountainous terrain,
may cause life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-15 11:33

WTNT24 KNHC 150840
TCMAT4

REMNANTS OF ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 70.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 70.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-15 05:32

WTNT44 KNHC 150238
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Isaac has rapidly lost organization since the last advisory. The
cyclone has been devoid of any deep convection for most of the
evening, with only a small burst recently forming well to the west
of where Isaac's low-level center is believed to be located. While
it is possible, if not likely, that the maximum winds have decreased
a little since this afternoon due to the lack of convection, the
initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft
data. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Isaac again overnight and will provide a better estimate of the
strength and status of Isaac.

The global models continue to insist that Isaac could open into a
trough at any time, and based on the current state of the cyclone,
this could be imminent. The regional hurricane models, however, show
the development of one or more mesoscale lows embedded within a
larger cyclonic envelope that cause Isaac to persist for at least a
few more days in those models. While the global model solution still
seems more likely, I can't rule out that Isaac will persist a little
longer, so the NHC forecast still carries a 72 h forecast point.
Regardless of whether Isaac is a tropical storm or a tropical wave
over the next few days, heavy rains and occasional gusty winds are
still likely across much of the Greater Antilles through the next
couple of days.

It has been very difficult to try to pinpoint a low-level center of
Isaac over the past few hours, but based on microwave data it
appears to still be moving west at about 13 kt. The GFS and ECMWF
are in very good agreement and show Isaac, or its remnants, moving
steadily westward for the next several days. The regional models on
the other hand show a farther north motion, in part due to one or
more reformations of the center. The NHC forecast continues to favor
the global model solutions and is on the south side of the guidance
envelope, however if it becomes clear that Isaac will survive
longer, a northward adjustment may be required in later advisories.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.4N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 16.2N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.7N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.7N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-15 05:32

WTNT34 KNHC 150236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...ISAAC QUICKLY LOSING ORGANIZATION AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 69.5 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest or northwest
is possible by the end of the weekend, if Isaac has not degenerated
into a trough of low pressure by then.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The maximum winds are not expected to change very much
during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across
southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the
northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south-
central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and most
of Jamaica except for the eastern portion of Jamaica where rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches and maximum amounts of 6 inches are
possible. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-15 05:32

WTNT24 KNHC 150236
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 69.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 69.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 68.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N 75.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.7N 77.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.7N 81.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 69.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-14 23:32

WTNT44 KNHC 142051
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

It has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft this afternoon. Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the
maximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen
to about 1002 mb. However, the system is tilted southward with
vertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and
Hurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is
elongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed. Note that the
plane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of
strong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds
showing no circulation were unrepresentative.

The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.
Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might
diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around
the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that
Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which
is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble
members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows.
It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures
this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one
that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the
situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the
best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see
if we gain any confidence.

Isaac is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the
weekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a
weaker portion of the ridge. Just like yesterday, a stronger system
would likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving
closer to Jamaica. Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the
forecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and
should also be considered low confidence since it depends on the
intensity. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the
Isaac.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.3N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-14 23:32

WTNT34 KNHC 142048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...ISAAC BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT ITS FUTURE IS UNCLEAR...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 68.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 68.2 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is anticipated over the
next couple of days with a turn to the west-northwest possible by
late Sunday. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, and be
near or south of Jamaica early next week.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours.
Isaac is forecast to become a tropical depression on Sunday and
degenerate into a wave on Monday. However this is an uncertain
prediction.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from dropsonde data is 1002
mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across
southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the
northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south-
central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and most
of Jamaica except for the eastern portion of Jamaica where rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches and maximum amounts of 6 inches are
possible. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-14 23:32

WTNT24 KNHC 142047
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 68.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 68.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 67.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 68.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-14 17:33

WTNT44 KNHC 141432
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Isaac Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Deep convection has been increasing near the center of Isaac, but
visible imagery indicates that the circulation has become
more elongated from northeast to southwest. It is possible that
Isaac is in the process of losing a well-defined center, but we will
know more about the wind structure in a few hours since the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area. The initial wind
speed is held at 30 kt.

Vertical shear has decreased near Isaac, with some outflow in the
western semicircle noted and consolidation of the convection.
Still, this area of the eastern Caribbean isn't known as the
graveyard for nothing, and the system might just be too shallow and
disorganized to take advantage of the changing environment. Almost
all of the dynamical models, save the UKMET, show the cyclone moving
westward to west-northwestward at a slower forward speed during the
next few days and degenerating into an open wave in the central
Caribbean Sea. This solution is also supported by fewer members of
the GFS and ECMWF ensemble now maintaining a coherent system in the
long range. Little change is made to the previous track and
intensity forecasts, and we will see what the aircraft finds this
afternoon and if the 1200 UTC model cycle maintains the dissipation
trend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 14.9N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.1N 71.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.6N 75.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 17.0N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-14 17:33

WTNT34 KNHC 141431
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISAAC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 67.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Isaac
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 67.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn to the west-northwest is possible
early next week if Isaac survives. On the forecast track, Isaac
will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and
could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
depression.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across
southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the
northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south-
central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and
Jamaica. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-14 17:33

WTNT24 KNHC 141430
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 67.3W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 67.3W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 66.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.1N 71.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.6N 75.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 67.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-14 11:34

WTNT44 KNHC 140832
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Isaac Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Northwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Isaac. Although the
system is still producing areas of deep convection, an ASCAT
overpass that arrived shortly after the release of the previous
advisory, indicated that the circulation had become even less
defined. The ASCAT data also showed that the winds are below
tropical storm strength, therefore the initial intensity has been
reduced to 30 kt.

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are
likely to cause additional weakening, and Isaac is forecast to
degenerate into an open wave within the next several days, but this
could occur much sooner if the current trends continue.
When the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea the shear may
relax somewhat and moisture levels are expected to be higher. These
conditions could allow for regeneration of the system, but the ECMWF
and GFS both show Issac weakening and moving over the western
Caribbean as an open wave, and the NHC forecast follows this
scenario.

A low- to mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic continues
to steer Isaac westward, and this general motion should continue
until dissipation occur. The new track forecast is once again
essentially an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.0N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.1N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 15.2N 69.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.2N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.4N 73.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-14 11:34

WTNT34 KNHC 140831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 65.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Isaac
was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 65.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the
next few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave at any
time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches across the northern
Windward Islands into the Leeward islands, and southeastern Puerto
Rico. Totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are
possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands,
Dominican Republic and Haiti. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-14 11:34

WTNT24 KNHC 140911 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

CORRECTED TO REMOVE 12-FT SEAS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 65.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 65.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.1N 67.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.2N 69.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.2N 72.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 73.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 65.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-14 11:34

WTNT24 KNHC 140831
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 65.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 65.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.1N 67.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.2N 69.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.2N 72.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 73.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 65.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-14 05:32

WTNT44 KNHC 140237
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

A burst of deep convection has developed and covered the previously
exposed center of Isaac this evening. However, there is still
evidence of northwesterly shear over the cyclone as there is a
rather sharp edge to the convective mass and the cirrus is quickly
blowing off toward the southeast. A recent ASCAT pass shows that
the circulation is not particularly well defined, but it did show
some light west or west-southwesterly winds, enough to keep the
system classified as a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT also revealed
winds of 30-32 kt, so the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, which
is also an average of the latest Dvorak current intensity numbers.

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are
likely to cause Isaac to weaken to a tropical depression or even
become an open wave within the next day or so. When Isaac reaches
the west-central Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, the shear may
relax somewhat and the global models suggest that there will be an
increase in mid-level moisture. These conditions could allow for
regeneration of the system, but given the uncertainty in whether
Isaac will survive long enough to take advantage of these
conditions, the official forecast still calls for dissipation like
most of the guidance.

Isaac continues moving westward at about 14 kt. The system should
move generally westward over the next couple of days as it is
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. Later in the
period, the models show that Isaac could gain some latitude, but
the official forecast is along the southern side of the guidance
since a weaker system is likely to move more westward. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 14.9N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 15.0N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 16.3N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 17.7N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-14 05:32

WTNT34 KNHC 140236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...ISAAC MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next
few days. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and
could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches across the northern
Windward Islands into the Leeward islands, and southeastern Puerto
Rico. Totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are
possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands,
Dominican Republic and Haiti. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are still affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-14 05:32

WTNT24 KNHC 140236
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.4W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 71.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 82.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 64.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-13 23:33

WTNT44 KNHC 132044
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

The center of Isaac has been mostly exposed during the past several
hours as temporary bursts of convection fire just east of the
center. Assuming some spin down of the circulation after the plane
left, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. Since there haven't
been any reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the
Lesser Antilles and the center is moving away, all watches and
warning have been lowered. However, there remains a threat of flash
flooding due to a large area of rain that has yet to move through
the Lesser Antilles.

Strong shear and mid-level dry air is forecast to persist for the
next day or so, which should cause Isaac to drop back to tropical
depression status on Friday. However, the shear is forecast to
weaken by the weekend, and moisture values are expected to rise as
the system gets deeper into the Caribbean Sea. These conditions
would normally allow for some restregthening, but the initial
character of the system is pretty weak, and it is uncertain whether
there will be much left of Isaac to take advantage of the more
conducive conditions. Model guidance has been inconsistent on the
future of Isaac, which speaks to the lack of predictability of this
situation. The bulk of the guidance show Isaac staying weak or
degenerating into a tropical wave over the next few days, so the
official forecast follows that consensus. At this point it is
just best to keep an eye on the long-range forecast on each
advisory to see if there are any changes.

Isaac is moving westward at about 15 kt. A mid-level ridge is
forecast to persist over the southwestern Atlantic, steering Isaac
westward for the next few days, with a turn to the west-northwest
possible at long range. The future track is very uncertain at long
range because it is dependent on the intensity. If Isaac
degenerates into a wave, the remnants will likely move south and
west of the guidance mean, and if the cyclone is stronger, it will
probably move slower and more to the right. The new NHC forecast
assumes that Isaac will stay weak, and therefore is on the left and
faster side of the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 14.9N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 14.9N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 14.9N 68.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 14.9N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 15.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.2N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-13 23:33

WTNT34 KNHC 132041
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR ISAAC HAVE ENDED...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 63.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All watches and warnings have been discontinued for Isaac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 63.2 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next
few days. Isaac should move farther away from Lesser Antilles
today, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next
few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave during that
time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to
8 to 10 inches over Dominica. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with isolated amounts up to 6 inches over elevated terrain are
forecast across Martinique and Guadeloupe. Rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches are forecast across southeastern Puerto Rico, while totals
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible
across the remainder of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
This rainfall may cause dangerous flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-13 23:33

WTNT24 KNHC 132041
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ISAAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 63.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 60SE 15SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 63.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N 65.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.9N 70.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-13 20:32

WTNT34 KNHC 131746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
200 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...ISAAC BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 62.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. The government of France
has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin, and the
government of St. Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for St. Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located by satellite images near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 62.5
West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A
westward track with a slower forward motion is forecast to continue
for the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac should move
farther away from Lesser Antilles today, and then move across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days as
Isaac moves through the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to
8 to 10 inches over Dominica. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with isolated amounts up to 6 inches over elevated terrain are
forecast across Martinique and Guadeloupe. Rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches are forecast across southeastern Puerto Rico, while totals
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible
across the remainder of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
This rainfall may cause dangerous flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring within portions of the
warning area and should continue through the afternoon hours.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-13 17:34

WTNT44 KNHC 131441
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Satellite imagery indicate that Isaac remains a poorly organized
tropical cyclone, with the low-level center mostly exposed during
the past several hours. The center of Isaac passed between Dominica
and Martinique around 1300 UTC, with westerly winds reported on both
St. Lucia and Martinique, indicating that Isaac is still a tropical
storm. Data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum winds remain near 40 kt, although the area of tropical-
storm-force winds has shrunk since yesterday.

1200 UTC radiosonde data from the eastern Caribbean and Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data indicate that the circulation of Isaac is
fairly shallow and small. It is entirely possible that Isaac will
degenerate into a tropical wave during the next day or two due to
the continued effects of strong shear. However, the environment
becomes much more conducive for increased organization in a few days
when the cyclone, or its remnants, moves across the west-central
Caribbean Sea. Model guidance is not consistent at all on whether
Isaac will survive as a tropical cyclone, which frankly might not be
a very predictable event given the initial uncertainties. The best
course of action is to let the full 1200 UTC guidance suite ingest
all of the latest radiosonde and other data before making any
changes, so this advisory holds the status quo for now.

Isaac is moving a little south-of-west and a bit faster, since it
was devoid of convection most of night, at about 265/17. A mid-level
ridge is forecast to persist over the southwestern Atlantic,
steering Isaac westward for the next few days. The track forecast
is fairly dependent on the intensity forecast, since a deeper
tropical cyclone will move slower due to slightly weaker winds in
the middle part of the atmosphere. The forecast has been too slow
so far, and with the current forecast showing little strengthening,
the official track prediction is shifted west of the previous one,
close to the NOAA corrected consensus aid. At the end of the
forecast, if Isaac remains a tropical cyclone, it could start moving
more toward the west-northwest, but I would place little emphasis on
the 96-hour point until we get a better handle on the future
structure of Isaac.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the Lesser Antilles into this afternoon, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and
Guadeloupe.

2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts
and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,
and St. Martin. Tropical storm conditions are possible on these
islands today and interests on those islands should follow any
advice given by their local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 14.9N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 14.9N 69.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 15.0N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 15.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 17.0N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-13 17:34

WTNT34 KNHC 131456 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 24...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Corrected for Puerto Rico rainfall in the Hazards section

...ISAAC NOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 61.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface
observations near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 61.8 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward track with
a slower forward motion is forecast to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, Isaac should move farther away from
Lesser Antilles today, and then move across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next several
hours as Isaac moves through the Leeward Islands. Gradual weakening
is forecast after that as Isaac moves through the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data and surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to
8 to 10 inches over Dominica. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with isolated amounts up to 6 inches over elevated terrain are
forecast across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
forecast across southeastern Puerto Rico, while totals of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the
remainder of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This rainfall
may cause dangerous flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring within portions of the
warning area and should continue through the afternoon hours.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-13 17:34

WTNT34 KNHC 131438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...ISAAC NOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 61.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface
observations near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 61.8 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward track with
a slower forward motion is forecast to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, Isaac should move farther away from
Lesser Antilles today, and then move across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next several
hours as Isaac moves through the Leeward Islands. Gradual weakening
is forecast after that as Isaac moves through the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data and surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to
8 to 10 inches over Dominica. Rainfall amounts of of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches across Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe, especially over elevated terrain.
Rainfall totals 1 to 2 inch with isolated amounts to 4 inches
are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern United States
Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across the remaining
Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause dangerous
flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring within portions of the
warning area and should continue through the afternoon hours.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-13 17:34

WTNT24 KNHC 131438
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* BARBUDA
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 61.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 15SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 61.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.9N 64.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.9N 67.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.9N 69.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 72.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 61.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-13 14:34

WTNT34 KNHC 131152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SOON IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 60.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 60.9 West. Isaac is
moving faster toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue today with a decrease in forward
speed over the Caribbean Sea. On the forecast track, Isaac should
move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern
Caribbean Sea later today, and then move across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next several
hours as Isaac moves through the Leeward Islands. Gradual weakening
is forecast after that as Isaac moves through the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to
6 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, especially
over elevated terrain. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches with isolated
amounts to 3 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern
United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across
the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause
dangerous flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning within the next few hours through the
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area, also beginning later this morning.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-13 11:34

WTNT44 KNHC 130859
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft that departed the
storm shortly before 0600 UTC indicated that the tropical storm has
weakened a little more. Maximum flight-level winds were around 51
kt, while maximum SFMR winds were only 41 kt. Both of these
support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Wind measurements from the
plane also suggested that Isaac is close to opening up into a
tropical wave and its circulation is likely barely closed at the
surface. Another P-3 mission is scheduled for this morning.

Isaac is nearly completely devoid of deep convection at the moment,
and is not trackable in radar data from Guadeloupe and Martinique.
Given the lack of deep convection to sustain the cyclone, continued
gradual weakening is expected. However, given the extent of
40 mph winds observed by the NOAA plane, Isaac is still likely to
bring gusty conditions to many of the Leeward Islands through
this afternoon. The dynamical guidance is now in fairly good
agreement on the intensity of Isaac for the next few days, and
nearly all of the models depict Isaac opening into a trough between
48 and 96 h. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains Isaac
through day 4 in an attempt to maintain some continuity, but it
is very possible that Isaac will open into a trough sooner than
indicated. Some of the dynamical models suggest that regeneration
could occur in the western Caribbean, however the predictability of
such an event is too low to explicitly show in the forecast at this
point.

Isaac is still moving quickly westward, with an initial motion of
275/15 kt. Confidence in the track forecast remains high, and the
track guidance is tightly clustered through the forecast period.
Very little change was made to the track forecast, which continues
to closely follow the HCCA model. As long as Isaac remains a
shallow cyclone, it should continue to be steered westward by the
low-level tradewind flow, even if, or when, it opens up into a
trough.


Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the Lesser Antilles this morning and afternoon, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and
Guadeloupe.

2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts
and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,
and St. Martin. Tropical storm conditions are possible on these
islands today and interests on those islands should follow any
advice given by their local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 15.4N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.5N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 15.5N 67.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 15.6N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 16.9N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-13 11:34

WTNT34 KNHC 130856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 59.7 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion
is forecast to continue for the next several days. On the forecast
track, Isaac is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles
and into the eastern Caribbean Sea later today, and then move across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

Earlier data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next several hours as
Isaac moves through the Leeward Islands. Gradual weakening is
forecast after that as Isaac moves through the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to
6 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, especially
over elevated terrain. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches with isolated
amounts to 3 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern
United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across
the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause
dangerous flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning within the next few hours through the
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area, also beginning later this morning.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-13 11:34

WTNT24 KNHC 130855
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBUDA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* BARBUDA
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 59.7W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 59.7W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 58.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 61.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 74.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 78.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 59.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-13 08:33

WTNT34 KNHC 130543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
200 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 58.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 58.8 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward is expected to continue through
the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move
across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea later today, and then move across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. A continued gradual decrease in the winds is forecast during
the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the north of the center.

Recent data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the minimum
pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico
and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This
rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area later this morning through the afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area, beginning later this morning.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-13 05:32

WTNT44 KNHC 130253
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter plane has been investigating Isaac this
evening, and the data show that the cyclone has weakened a bit.
The maximum 850-mb flight-level wind measured by the plane was 47
kt, and the highest SFMR winds not coincident with a rain spike were
around 45 kt. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity is
lowered to 45 kt, and the minimum pressure is up to 1006 mb based on
dropsonde data. Additionally, a superposition of the flight-level
wind and dropsonde surface wind data suggest that Isaac may not have
a closed circulation at 850 mb but is still hanging on to one at the
surface.

All of Isaac's deep convection is displaced 60-120 n mi to the
northeast and southeast of the low-level center due to around 30 kt
of westerly shear. This magnitude of the shear is not expected to
decrease during the next 12-24 hours, so at the very least, gradual
weakening is anticipated. With the circulation so fragile and
limited to below 850 mb, however, it's entirely possible that Isaac
could open up into a wave at any time. Even if degeneration into a
wave occurs, the system would likely carry tropical-storm-force
winds across the Leeward Islands on Thursday. After Isaac moves
into the eastern Caribbean Sea, there is a lot of uncertainty
regarding its future. The 18Z GFS has come back in line with the
ECMWF, showing Isaac opening up into a trough over the central and
western Caribbean Sea, but the environmental conditions (lower
shear, warm sea surface temperatures, etc.) would suggest that the
system would have an opportunity to restrengthen. For now, the new
NHC intensity forecast maintains continuity from the previous
advisory, showing gradual weakening through 48 hours and then
holding the system at 35 kt through day 5. This remains a low
confidence forecast until we know if Isaac survives the next couple
of days.

Isaac continues to move quickly westward with an initial motion of
270/17 kt. The track guidance remains tightly clustered on a
nearly due westward motion for much of the forecast period, with
some of the same speed differences noted in previous forecasts.
Especially since Isaac's speed has been faster than forecast, the
NHC track forecast continues to favor the faster guidance, in
particular the ECMWF, GFS, and HCCA models.

Reconnaissance and scatterometer data suggest that there are no
tropical-storm-force winds within the southern semicircle, but the
radii we've been carrying within the northern semicircle appear
reasonable. The wind radii forecast have been adjusted to account
for the new initial radii.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to still be producing tropical-storm-force
winds when it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and
Guadeloupe. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat,
St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,
and St. Martin. Interests on those islands should follow any advice
given by their local officials.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible with Isaac. The
storm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts up 8 inches across Martinique,
Dominica and Guadeloupe. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
isolated amounts to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico and the
southern United States Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.3N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.5N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.6N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.7N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 15.7N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 16.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-13 05:32

WTNT34 KNHC 130252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 58.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 58.0 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward is expected to continue through
the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move
across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea on Thursday, and then move across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite-derived
wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased
to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual decrease in
the winds is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the north of the center.

Data from the aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is
1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico
and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This
rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-13 05:32

WTNT24 KNHC 130252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 58.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 58.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 57.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.5N 60.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 63.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.7N 69.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 58.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-13 02:32

WTNT34 KNHC 122356
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 57.2W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 57.2 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward is expected to continue through
the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across
the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Thursday, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea
through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico
and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This
rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-12 23:33

WTNT44 KNHC 122058
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

The satellite presentation of Isaac hasn't changed much in the past
several hours, with the center exposed on the west side of a
re-developing band of convection. On the last pass of the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft, peak flight-level winds were 61 kt and
SFMR values were about 50 kt. These data support an initial wind
speed estimate of 50 kt. It is interesting to note that the
surface center is estimated to be a tenth of a degree or two south
of the well-defined swirl on satellite--a function of the fast
forward speed and high shear.

The shear is forecast to continue for the next day or two, and
gradual weakening is anticipated, in line with the model
guidance. Given the strong shear, it is possible that Isaac could
degenerate into a wave near the Lesser Antilles. After that time,
Isaac could escape the upper-level trough over the central Atlantic
that has been shearing the cyclone, and find a more conducive
environment. More of the model guidance is suggesting some
reintensification of the cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea, with
the biggest hold-out being the ECMWF. Continuity dictates that the
forecast not change as much as the guidance, most of which is
showing a hurricane at long range, so the compromise solution is no
longer dissipating the cyclone and flat-lining the intensity at
long range. It almost goes without saying that this is a
low-confidence intensity forecast.

Isaac has accelerated to near 17 kt over the past 12 hours, and the
shorter-term motion is closer to 20 kt with the convection-less
center. A mid-tropospheric high is forecast to persist for the next
several days, which should keep the cyclone moving westward, albeit
at a slightly slower pace. The model guidance has shifted a bit to
the north on this cycle, but is mostly in response to the initial
latitude. The NHC track forecast is moved northward as well but
still lies on the south side of the consensus. At long range, it
makes sense when forecasting a weaker system to stay on the left
and faster side of the consensus, so that's where the new NHC
prediction lies.


Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it
moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm
warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and
Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those
islands should follow any advice given by their local officials.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible with Isaac. The
storm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts up 8 inches across Martinique,
Dominica and Guadeloupe. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
isolated amounts to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico and the
southern United States Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 15.4N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 15.6N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.8N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 16.0N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.0N 67.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 16.0N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 16.5N 76.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-12 23:33

WTNT34 KNHC 122050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 56.6 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward is expected to continue through
the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across
the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Thursday, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea
through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico
and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This
rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-12 23:33

WTNT24 KNHC 122049
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. MARTIN AND THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 56.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 20SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 56.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 55.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.6N 59.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 20SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.8N 61.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 64.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 67.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 56.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-12 21:38

WTNT34 KNHC 121823 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 20A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
200 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

Corrected for distances from Martinique and Guadeloupe

...ISAAC MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 55.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Martin and the government of St. Maarten has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite near
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 55.7 West. Isaac is moving faster
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with
a decrease in forward is expected to continue through the weekend.
On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the central
Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and
then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through
Saturday.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60
mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico
and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This
rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-12 20:33

WTNT34 KNHC 121751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
200 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 55.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Martin and the government of St. Maarten has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite near
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 55.7 West. Isaac is moving faster
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with
a decrease in forward is expected to continue through the weekend.
On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the central
Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and
then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through
Saturday.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60
mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico
and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This
rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-12 17:34

WTNT44 KNHC 121459
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

GOES-16 1-minute satellite imagery along with NOAA Hurricane Hunter
data show that the center of Isaac has become fully exposed on the
northwestern side of a shrinking area of deep convection. There is
still a lot of wind there, however, with the NOAA plane observing
SFMR and adjusted flight-level winds to support 50 kt as an initial
intensity.

An upper-level trough is dropping southward over the central
Atlantic, which has increased the shear this morning over Isaac.
This high shear is forecast to remain for the next day or two, and
it is possible that Isaac will degrade into a tropical wave during
that time, although the area of tropical-storm-force winds will
likely not go away for a while. In a couple of days, while the
wind shear could decrease over the east-central Caribbean Sea, there
might not be much of a system left to take advantage of the more
conducive conditions. As a compromise, the official forecast
shows a slow weakening, in the direction of the model consensus,
and continues to show dissipation after 96 hours in line with the
GFS/ECMWF guidance. I wouldn't pay much attention to the long
range forecast for now, given the uncertainties in Isaac surviving
during the next day or two.

The low-level center of Isaac has recently accelerated, moving
westward at 15 kt, as it decoupled from the slower mid-level flow.
Assuming the system stays vertically coherent, a large
mid-tropospheric high is forecast to persist for the next several
days. This should keep the system moving westward at a somewhat
slower pace throughout the forecast period. There isn't much spread
in the guidance, and the official forecast is close to the previous
one after accounting for the initial position. The long-range track
forecast highly depends on the intensity forecast, so it should be
considered low confidence.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it
moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm
warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and
Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those
islands should follow any advice given by their local officials.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible with Isaac. The
storm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts up 8 inches across Martinique,
Dominica and Guadeloupe. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
isolated amounts to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico and the
southern United States Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.0N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 15.1N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 15.3N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 15.3N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 15.4N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-12 17:34

WTNT34 KNHC 121455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC SHOULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 54.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 15.0
North, longitude 54.7 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 17
mph (28 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward
is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track,
Isaac is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and then move across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Saturday.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60
mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, 1 to 2 inches with isolated
amounts to 4 inches across Puerto Rico and the southern United
States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across the
remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-12 17:34

WTNT24 KNHC 121455
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 54.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 20SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 54.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 53.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.1N 56.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.3N 59.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.3N 62.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 54.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-12 15:34

WTNT34 KNHC 121225 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 19A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

Corrected latitude to 14.4N in the discussion section

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER APPROACHING ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 54.1W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 54.1 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and into
the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. A
NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will soon fly through the center of
Isaac, and will provide a better assessment of the intensity of the
tropical storm and the extent of its winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with up to one inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-12 14:32

WTNT34 KNHC 121155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER APPROACHING ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 54.1W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 54.1 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and into
the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. A
NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will soon fly through the center
of Isaac, and will provide a better assessment of the intensity of
the tropical storm and the extent of its winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with up to one inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-12 11:32

WTNT44 KNHC 120834
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

Isaac is a poorly organized tropical storm. Geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the center of the cyclone is
located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection.
This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of
west-northwesterly shear. The satellite intensity estimates have
been decreasing, and an average of the Dvorak CI-numbers supports
lowering the initial wind speed slightly to 50 kt. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Isaac later this
morning, and that data should provide a better assessment of the
storm's intensity and structure.

Isaac continues to move due westward at about 13 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged. A fairly strong mid-level
ridge to the north of Isaac should steer the system westward at
about the same forward speed during the next several days. The
models are now in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast
is just a little north of the previous one to come in line with the
latest guidance. Based on this forecast, Isaac is expected to cross
portions of the Leeward and Windward Islands in about 36 hours.

Isaac is feeling the effects of wind shear, and the global models
suggest that the shear will likely remain moderate to strong during
the next couple of days. These hostile winds combined with nearby
dry air will likely cause Isaac to gradually weaken during the next
several days. The intensity models are in fair agreement, and this
forecast is close to the model consensus, except a little lower than
that aid at 96 hours. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models
show Isaac opening up into a trough by day 5, and the NHC forecast
follows those models.

Key Message:

1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it
moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm
warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and
Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those
islands should follow any advice given by their local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.5N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.0N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.2N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.4N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 15.3N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-12 11:32

WTNT34 KNHC 120833
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 53.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 53.5 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Isaac later this morning and should provide a better assessment of
the intensity of the tropical storm and the extent of its winds.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with up to one inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-12 11:32

WTNT24 KNHC 120833
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 53.5W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 53.5W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 53.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.0N 58.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.4N 64.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N 70.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 53.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-12 08:33

WTNT34 KNHC 120533
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
200 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 53.0W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 53.0 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated
across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-12 05:36

WTNT44 KNHC 120259
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

A slew of recent microwave passes have revealed that Isaac's center
is outrunning the deep convection by about a degree due to
strengthening westerly shear. With the degradation in structure,
Dvorak estimates have fallen to T3.0/3.5 from both TAFB and SAB.
The initial intensity is being set at 55 kt to match the CI number
(3.5), but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual intensity is
closer to the final-T number.

Isaac is moving quickly westward, or 270/14 kt. Ridging to the
north should keep the cyclone on a similar speed and path for much
of the forecast period. The only main difference among the track
models is Isaac's future speed, and the NHC official forecast
continues to favor the faster models--the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA
models. Since the forecast thinking is unchanged, the updated NHC
forecast is not too different from the previous one. Isaac's
center is expected to move across the Lesser Antilles near
Martinique and Dominica on Thursday.

Vertical shear is expected to increase and turn more northwesterly
during the next 36 hours as Isaac moves closer to the base of an
upper-level trough which extends northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Therefore, deep convection is expected to remain decoupled from the
low-level center, and Isaac's structure could degrade further over
the next day or two. The cyclone's maximum winds are also expected
to decrease, and the NHC official forecast is close to the HCCA,
Florida State Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus aids.
Even though the statistical-dynamical models and the HWRF
restrengthen Isaac by days 4 and 5 when the shear decreases, there
may not be much left of the cyclone for any strengthening to occur.
Both the GFS and ECMWF global models show Isaac weakening to a
remnant low or opening up into a trough by days 4 or 5, which is
the scenario favored by the NHC official forecast. As such,
dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day 5.


Key Message:

1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it
moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm
warnings have been issued for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts
and Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those
islands should follow any advice given by their local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 14.5N 52.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 14.6N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 14.7N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 14.9N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 15.1N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 15.2N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 15.0N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-12 05:36

WTNT34 KNHC 120258
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...AND
GUADELOUPE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 52.3W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica. The Hurricane Watch for Dominica has been discontinued.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique and Guadeloupe. The Hurricane Watch for Martinique and
Guadeloupe has been discontinued.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 52.3 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the
forecast track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the
central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Thursday, and move into the central Caribbean Sea by Friday or
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated
across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-12 05:36

WTNT24 KNHC 120258
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

AMENDED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
DOMINICA. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE AND
GUADELOUPE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 52.3W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 52.3W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.6N 54.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.7N 57.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.9N 60.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N 63.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.2N 69.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 52.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-12 05:36

WTNT24 KNHC 120251
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
DOMINICA. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE AND
GUADELOUPE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 52.3W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 52.3W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.6N 54.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.7N 57.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.9N 60.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N 63.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.2N 69.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 52.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-12 02:34

WTNT34 KNHC 112334
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 52.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Martinique
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac as additional watches or warnings will likely be
issued tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 52.2 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the
forecast track, Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the
central Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move into the eastern Caribbean
Sea Thursday night, and move into the central Caribbean Sea by the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it
moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening
forecast afterward on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated
across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through
the Lesser Antilles. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible
overnight Wednesday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch
areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-11 23:34

WTNT44 KNHC 112033
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Microwave and visible satellite data show that the center of Isaac
is partially exposed on the western edge of the central dense
overcast. Perhaps Isaac is a little weaker than earlier, but a
blend of the latest subjective and objective estimates still gives
an uncertain initial wind speed of about 60 kt. We should have a
better idea of the maximum winds by tomorrow morning when a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter enters the storm, or if we get lucky with a
scatterometer pass this evening.

Isaac is barely holding on in the face of increasing shear, which
is much more evident in the 300-500 mb layer than a conventional
analysis at 200 mb. However, convection could redevelop near the
center while the storm moves over warming SSTs into a more moist and
unstable environment east of the Lesser Antilles. These
conflicting factors lead to a forecast of little change in the winds
of Isaac until the cyclone moves into the eastern Caribbean. I
should mention that the short-term trend on satellite makes me think
the intensity forecast is too high over the next 36 hours. Yet,
given our limited skill in forecasting intensity changes in marginal
environments, plus the 5 or 10 kt of initial wind speed uncertainty,
this is the course of least regret. We can see if this trend
becomes more consistent before making substantial changes on the
next advisory. Model guidance is very divergent in the long range
for Isaac, with the regional hurricane and statistical models
showing intensification, while the global models show continued
weakening. The global models have done fairly well with this
cyclone, so the forecast will lean more heavily on their weaker
solutions.

The latest initial motion estimate is 270/15, a little faster than
before. Isaac is forecast to move westward at roughly the same
speed for the next few days due to a mid-level ridge over the
central Atlantic Ocean. Model guidance is tightly clustered on this
cycle, with the UKMET now coming into good agreement with the rest
of the guidance. The only change to this forecast is to accelerate
Isaac roughly 1 kt over the course of the prediction, which over the
course of a 5-day forecast results in a sizable westward shift.
This forecast could still be too slow, since the GFS and ECMWF are
a bit ahead of the new NHC track prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued for several islands.
Interests in those areas should follow any advice given by their
local officials, and warnings will likely be issued this evening.

2. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should continue to
monitor Isaac during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 14.6N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 14.6N 53.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 14.8N 56.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 15.0N 59.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 15.3N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 15.5N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 15.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 15.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-11 23:34

WTNT34 KNHC 112032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...WARNINGS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 51.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Martinique
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac as additional watches or warnings will likely be
issued tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 51.3 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the
forecast track, Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the
central Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move into the eastern Caribbean
Sea Thursday night, and move into the central Caribbean Sea by the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it
moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening
forecast afterward on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through
the Lesser Antilles. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible
overnight Wednesday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch
areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-11 23:34

WTNT24 KNHC 112032
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 51.3W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 51.3W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 50.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 53.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.8N 56.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.0N 59.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 62.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 51.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-11 20:34

WTNT34 KNHC 111740
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
200 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 50.4W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for St. Kitts and Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Martinique
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac as additional watches could be issued this
afternoon or evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located with high-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite data near
latitude 14.6 North, longitude 50.4 West. Isaac is moving toward the
west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue
for the next few days. On the forecast track Isaac is anticipated
to move near or over the central Lesser Antilles on Thursday and
move into the eastern Caribbean Sea Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it
moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening
forecast afterward on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across the
southern Leeward Islands late this week, with 1 to 2 inches
anticipated across portions of the Windward Islands.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through
the Lesser Antilles. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible
early Thursday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-11 17:32

WTNT44 KNHC 111458
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

One-minute visible satellite data from GOES-16 indicate that
the center of Isaac remains on the westward edge of the central
dense overcast. The initial wind speed is kept at 60 kt, which is a
compromise between the lower subjective estimates and higher ADTs
and microwave estimates. This is a more uncertain estimate than
normal due to the spread of the intensity fixes. The initial wind
and 12 ft seas radii have been expanded out to the north based on
TAFB estimates and microwave data.

The intensity forecast continues to be tricky. Westerly shear
should increase over the next couple of days, which would normally
cause some weakening. However this effect could be tempered by
increasing SSTs, mid-level moisture and instability in the path of
the storm. Given our limited skill in forecasting intensity changes
in marginal environments, plus the 5 or 10 kt of initial wind speed
uncertainty, the official forecast will show no significant change
in intensity for the next couple of days. Because of these
uncertainties, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for many of the
Leeward Islands, even though Isaac is not explicitly forecast to be
a hurricane. Some weakening is indicated at long range after
considering the global model trends in intensity, which have done
fairly well for Isaac.

The latest initial motion estimate is 270/14. Isaac is forecast to
move westward at about the same speed for the next few days due to
a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean. Other than the
UKMET model, there is not much spread in the guidance, except with
the forward speed. Given the strength of the ridge, the cyclone
isn't likely to slow down much, so the official forecast is
basically along the previous forecast track but faster. The
uncertainty increases at long range, and is somewhat dependent on
the intensity of Isaac, but faster seems to be way to go given the
weakening trend anticipated at that time.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued for several islands.
Interests in those areas should follow any advice given by their
local officials.

2. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should continue to
monitor Isaac during the next couple of days, as additional watches
could be needed for other islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.7N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 14.9N 57.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 15.1N 59.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 15.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-11 17:32

WTNT34 KNHC 111453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe
and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.

The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Martinique
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Montserrat

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac as additional watches could be issued this
afternoon or evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.7 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track
Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the central Lesser
Antilles on Thursday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it
moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening
forecast afterward on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across the
southern Leeward Islands late this week, with 1 to 2 inches
anticipated across portions of the Windward Islands.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through
the Lesser Antilles. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible
early Thursday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-11 17:32

WTNT24 KNHC 111453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA AND MONTSERRAT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND MONTSERRAT

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.7N 54.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.9N 57.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.1N 59.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-11 11:34

WTNT44 KNHC 110831
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Isaac has not changed much overnight. Satellite images indicate
that the strong tropical storm still has a central dense overcast
pattern and a limited amount of outer bands. Earlier microwave
data indicated that the center was not located in the middle of the
convection, however, likely due to some westerly shear. Since
the cyclone has changed little during the past several hours, the
initial intensity is held at 60 kt, which is an average of the TAFB
and SAB Dvorak final T- and CI-numbers. A nearby NOAA buoy shows
that the wind field of Isaac is very compact, with tropical-storm-
force winds only extending up to 40 n mi from the center.

Satellite fixes suggest that Isaac continues to move westward at 13
kt. Although there remains a fair amount of spread in the models,
the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models continue to show a
westward motion during the next several days as the storm moves on
the south side of a strengthening mid-level ridge. The NHC track
forecast continues to follow that theme, and this forecast lies
near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF aids. This forecast is a little
slower than the previous one, and takes Isaac across the Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean in 2 to 3 days.

Predicting Isaac's intensity has been challenging. Isaac appeared
to have been in relatively favorable conditions during the past day
or so, but it did not strengthen. The upper-level pattern should
remain relatively favorable for another day, so modest strengthening
back to a hurricane is possible during that time. Thereafter,
however, an increase in shear first from a trough in the central
Atlantic and then from the outflow of Florence should cause some
weakening when the storm moves into the Caribbean. The models
are in a little better agreement this cycle as the HWRF is no
longer showing Isaac becoming a major hurricane. The NHC intensity
forecast is very similar to the previous one and is fairly close to
the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, confidence in the forecast
is lower than normal.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor
Isaac during the next couple of days. Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Lesser Antilles later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.6N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.6N 50.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 15.1N 57.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 15.5N 62.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 15.6N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 15.8N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-11 11:34

WTNT34 KNHC 110831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 48.1W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 48.1 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue through the end of the week. On the forecast
track, Isaac should move across the Lesser Antilles and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days, but Isaac is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts near 6 inches across the
Leeward Islands late this week, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated
across the Windward Islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-11 11:34

WTNT24 KNHC 110831
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 48.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 48.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 50.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.1N 57.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 62.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 15.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 48.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-11 05:32

WTNT44 KNHC 110243
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Several microwave images that arrived after the issuance of the last
advisory revealed that the low-level center of Isaac has raced ahead
of the main convective mass, and the system is poorly vertically
aligned. The system also recently passed very near NOAA buoy 41041,
which confirmed that the center is on the western side of the
central dense overcast. The maximum winds observed by the buoy were
only about 30 kt, with a minimum pressure of near 1001 mb. Due to
the western adjustment of the center location, the latest Dvorak
classification from TAFB is lower, and a blend of the TAFB final-T
and CI-numbers supports a lower initial intensity of 60 kt. It is
worth noting that this estimate is more uncertain than normal due to
limitations of the Dvorak technique, and most of the other intensity
estimates are higher. Given the high pressure and light winds at the
buoy, I am inclined to favor the lower estimate at this time.

Confidence in the track forecast is slightly higher now, and the
UKMET is the only outlier that does not bring Isaac westward into
the Caribbean within the next 72 h or so. There is still some
disagreement on the speed of Isaac, especially once it crosses the
Leeward Islands, and this seems largely related to the cyclone's
intensity. The ECMWF and GFS depict a weakening storm that simply
continues westward, while the HWRF and CTCI show strengthening as
Isaac slows down and turns more west-northwestward. The NHC track
forecast for now continues to favor the typically more reliable
global models and shows a steady westward motion through day 5. The
updated NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory,
due primarily to the westward adjustment of the initial position,
and remains close to HCCA.

A slight adjustment has been made to the intensity forecast, but
confidence in the intensity forecast remains quite low. Due to the
current structure of Isaac, it seems less likely that the tropical
storm will intensify more than what is shown by the intensity
guidance over the next 24-48 h. The NHC forecast has therefore been
lowered slightly, but it is still near the top end of the guidance,
and calls for Isaac to be a hurricane when it approaches the
Leeward Islands later this week. It is also worth noting that the
small size of Isaac could make it more susceptible to sudden
short-term changes in intensity that are nearly impossible to
forecast. The intensity spread is tremendous by the end of the
forecast period, with multiple models showing Isaac becoming a major
hurricane around day 4 or 5, and others showing outright
dissipation. The NHC forecasts have been favoring a weaker solution
thus far due to an expected increase in shear beginning in a couple
of days, and I see no reason to make a dramatic change at this
point.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, confidence in the forecast
is lower than normal.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor
Isaac during the next few days. Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Lesser Antilles tomorrow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 14.5N 46.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.5N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 14.8N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 15.0N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 15.4N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 15.5N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 15.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-11 05:32

WTNT34 KNHC 110243
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 46.9W
ABOUT 960 MI...1550 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 46.9 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through the end of the week. On the forecast
track, Isaac should move across the Lesser Antilles and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

The maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next few days, but Isaac is forecast to be at or near
hurricane strength as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later this
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts near 6 inches across the
Leeward Islands late this week, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated
across the Windward Islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-11 05:32

WTNT24 KNHC 110242
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 46.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 46.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 46.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 54.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 56.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.4N 62.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 15.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 46.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-10 23:34

WTNT44 KNHC 102031
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Isaac has not become better organized today. The system continues
to display a ragged CDO with limited banding features. Dvorak
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB continue to support an intensity of
65 kt. It is not clear why Isaac has failed to strengthen. Cirrus
motions and microwave imagery suggest some shear over the tropical
cyclone, which may have had some influence. Isaac should not
experience a significant increase in shear until about 48 hours, so
some strengthening is called for up to that time. Thereafter, the
dynamical guidance shows a significant increase in shear, which
should reverse the intensity trend. The HWRF model continues to be
an outlier in predicting significant intensification over the
Caribbean, whereas the other models do not. The official intensity
forecast is above the model consensus over the first half of the
period, and below the consensus during the latter part of the
period, considering the HWRF could be making the consensus too high
at days 3-5.

Isaac continues moving westward or 270/12 kt. There continue to be
a few differences among the track guidance, in particular the U.K.
Met, which shows the system turning northwestward to northward well
to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. The GFS takes the
system into the Caribbean but shows a more west-northwestward
motion. The official forecast stays close to the ECMWF and the
corrected consensus predictions, which is very similar to the
previous NHC track. Given the spread in the guidance, the
confidence in the details of the track forecast beyond the first
couple of days is larger than usual.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the intensity
forecast is greater than normal. Although Isaac is expected to
begin weakening when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still
likely to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the
islands.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor
Isaac during the next few days. Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Lesser Antilles tomorrow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 14.4N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 14.6N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 14.8N 54.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 15.3N 60.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 15.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-10 23:34

WTNT34 KNHC 102030
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 45.0W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located
near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 45.0 West. Isaac is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with a
slight increase in forward speed is expected through the end of the
week. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the
Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected over the next day or two.
Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as Isaac
approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Isaac is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-10 23:34

WTNT24 KNHC 102030
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 45.0W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 45.0W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 44.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 49.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.8N 54.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 60.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-10 17:32

WTNT44 KNHC 101436
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Isaac's cloud pattern is currently a bit ragged-looking, with an
irregular CDO and limited convective banding. Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 65 kt, and that value will be
used for the advisory. There is significant uncertainty in the
intensity forecast for this system. Vertical wind shear over the
hurricane is forecast to be weak to moderate during the next day or
so, which should allow Isaac to strengthen somewhat. By 48 hours,
however, the global models depict significantly stronger
northwesterly shear, associated with an upper-level trough over the
central Atlantic, affecting the tropical cyclone. Most of the
guidance does not show Isaac strengthening over the Caribbean. The
HWRF model is an outlier, strengthening Isaac into a major hurricane
later in the period, and it is the main contributor to high
consensus forecasts at days 3-5. The NHC intensity forecast is
above the model consensus through 72 hours and below it by the end
of the period.

Isaac continues to move westward, or 275/12 kt. A subtropical
ridge should be maintained to the north of the tropical cyclone for
the next several days, so a continued westward track seems likely.
The U. K. Met. Office model is an outlier and shows Isaac turning
northwestward and northward to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.
The official track forecast, like the previous one, follows the
other reliable global models and is also close to the HFIP corrected
consensus guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is
greater than normal. Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening
when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be
at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac
during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.7N 43.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 14.9N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.0N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.0N 51.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.1N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 15.4N 59.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 15.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 15.7N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-10 17:32

WTNT34 KNHC 101435
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 43.9W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 43.9 West. Isaac is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with a
slight increase in forward speed is expected through the end of the
week. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the
Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or
two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as
Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-10 17:32

WTNT24 KNHC 101435
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 43.9W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 43.9W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 45.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 48.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.0N 51.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.1N 54.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.4N 59.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 15.7N 70.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-10 11:33

WTNT44 KNHC 100914 CCA
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 11...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Corrected intensity forecast in table below.

Isaac has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The small hurricane continues to have a central dense overcast
feature with some fragmented bands to the south of the center. The
Dvorak classifications remain 4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and
therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt.

Isaac is moving westward at 11 kt. The models remain in poor
agreement this cycle as they are split into two camps. The UKMET,
HWRF, and a few other models show Isaac recurving near or to the
east of the Lesser Antilles toward a developing trough over the
central Atlantic. Conversely, the GFS and ECMWF have been very
consistent in showing a due westward motion across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean as the cyclone moves on the south
side of a strengthening mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast
continues to favor the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models,
and this forecast is near a blend of those aids. It should be
noted, however, that confidence in this track forecast is low given
the model spread.

The intensity forecast is also quite uncertain. One of the complex
factors is Isaac's compact size as small hurricanes like this one
are more prone to quick intensity changes, both up and down. In
addition, the intensity guidance is in poor agreement as solutions
range from steady weakening from this point onward to the HWRF that
shows Isaac becoming a major hurricane. Given that the wind shear
is expected to remain less than 10 kt for another day or two,
strengthening is forecast during that time period. After that,
however, an increase in shear first from a trough over the central
Atlantic and later from the outflow from Florence should result in
weakening when the system moves across the Lesser Antilles and into
the Caribbean Sea. The NHC intensity forecast is not too different
from the previous one and lies above the model consensus in the
short term, but below it at the later forecast times. This
forecast is in best agreement with the latest LGEM guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is
higher than normal. Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening
when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be
at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.7N 42.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.8N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.0N 47.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 50.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.0N 53.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.3N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 15.6N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-10 11:33

WTNT44 KNHC 100840
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Isaac has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The small hurricane continues to have a central dense overcast
feature with some fragmented bands to the south of the center. The
Dvorak classifications remain 4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and
therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt.

Isaac is moving westward at 11 kt. The models remain in poor
agreement this cycle as they are split into two camps. The UKMET,
HWRF, and a few other models show Isaac recurving near or to the
east of the Lesser Antilles toward a developing trough over the
central Atlantic. Conversely, the GFS and ECMWF have been very
consistent in showing a due westward motion across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean as the cyclone moves on the south
side of a strengthening mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast
continues to favor the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models,
and this forecast is near a blend of those aids. It should be
noted, however, that confidence in this track forecast is low given
the model spread.

The intensity forecast is also quite uncertain. One of the complex
factors is Isaac's compact size as small hurricanes like this one
are more prone to quick intensity changes, both up and down. In
addition, the intensity guidance is in poor agreement as solutions
range from steady weakening from this point onward to the HWRF that
shows Isaac becoming a major hurricane. Given that the wind shear
is expected to remain less than 10 kt for another day or two,
strengthening is forecast during that time period. After that,
however, an increase in shear first from a trough over the central
Atlantic and later from the outflow from Florence should result in
weakening when the system moves across the Lesser Antilles and into
the Caribbean Sea. The NHC intensity forecast is not too different
from the previous one and lies above the model consensus in the
short term, but below it at the later forecast times. This
forecast is in best agreement with the latest LGEM guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is
higher than normal. Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening
when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be
at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac
during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.7N 42.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.8N 44.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.0N 47.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 50.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.0N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.3N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 15.6N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-10 11:33

WTNT34 KNHC 100840
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 42.7W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 42.7 West. Isaac is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion with a
slight increase in forward speed is forecast through the end of the
week. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the
Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or
two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as
Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Isaac is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-10 11:33

WTNT24 KNHC 100911 CCA
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

CORRECTED INTENSITY FORECAST

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 42.7W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 42.7W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 42.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N 44.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.0N 47.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 50.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.3N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 15.6N 69.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-10 11:33

WTNT24 KNHC 100839
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 42.7W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 42.7W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 42.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N 44.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.0N 47.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 50.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.3N 58.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 15.6N 69.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-10 05:32

WTNT44 KNHC 100256
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Isaac's IR satellite presentation has generally improved since the
last advisory. While there is no evidence of an eye in conventional
satellite imagery, the most recent microwave imagery around 2100 UTC
indicated the presence of a pinhole eye. Dvorak intensity estimates
are T4.0 from both TAFB and SAB, and on this basis Isaac has been
upgraded to a hurricane, the 5th of the 2018 Atlantic season and 3rd
in the past few days.

I must stress that all aspects of the forecast are highly uncertain
at this time. The dynamical track model spread is nearly 1000 miles
at day 5, while the intensity guidance spread is nearly 100 kt.
Although the NHC track and intensity forecasts have not been changed
very much, this should not be interpreted as increasing confidence
in the forecast.

With regard to track, there is a clear split in the model guidance
regarding the speed of Isaac. The GFS and ECMWF models forecast that
a mid-level ridge to the north will accelerate the hurricane
westward for the next 36 h, with a westward motion continuing
through day 5 as the ridge is reinforced in the wake of Florence. On
the other hand, the UKMET and HWRF models show a weakness developing
in the ridge which causes Isaac to move much slower, and eventually
turn northward. The NHC forecast has been favoring the former
solution, and continues to do so with this advisory since I see no
reason to make a drastic change to the forecast at this point.

Isaac is a very small hurricane, which makes the intensity forecast
particularly tricky since small storms are susceptible to rapid
changes of intensity, up and down. Since the wind shear is expected
to remain low, and Isaac is forecast to remain over fairly warm SSTs
for the next 48 h, the current forecast of further intensification
seems reasonable, and the NHC forecast is still at the top end of
the guidance envelope. From 72 h onward, there could be a sudden,
and substantial increase in wind shear associated first with an
upper-level trough to the north, and later with the outflow of
Hurricane Florence. Assuming this shear affects Isaac as expected,
the tiny hurricane would likely weaken quickly, perhaps even faster
than currently shown in the forecast. By the end of the forecast
period, the NHC forecast remains a fair amount below the intensity
consensus, closer to the weakening solutions of the GFS and ECMWF.

Key Messages:
1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is
higher than normal. Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening
by Tuesday when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still
expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the
islands.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac
during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 14.5N 41.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.7N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 46.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.0N 49.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 15.2N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 15.5N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 15.5N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-10 05:32

WTNT34 KNHC 100251
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...ISAAC BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 41.6W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 41.6 West. Isaac is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and it is expected to
accelerate during the next 36 hours. A westward motion is forecast
to continue through the end of the week, with Isaac expected to move
across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
Wednesday night or Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the
next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of
the week as Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-10 05:32

WTNT24 KNHC 100251
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 41.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 41.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 41.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.7N 43.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 46.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 49.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 57.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 15.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 41.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-09 23:34

WTNT44 KNHC 092032
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Isaac is a tiny tropical cyclone, but even still, recent SSMIS
data showed that it has developed a mid-level microwave eye
feature. At the time of the pass (1800 UTC), the convection was a
little thin on the southern side, but geostationary satellite images
suggest that it has filled in since that time. Dvorak intensity
estimates are T4.0 from TAFB and T3.5 from SAB, so the maximum
winds are estimated to be 60 kt.

The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed since this
morning. Isaac is strengthening in an environment of low shear and
over warm sea surface temperatures, and for the next 36-48 hours,
the NHC intensity forecast is above the bulk of the intensity
models. The main reason for this is that Isaac's tiny size could
allow the intensity to increase quickly within the favorable
environment. However, the cyclone's tiny size will likely also be
to its detriment after 48 hours when northwesterly vertical shear is
expected to develop and increase to 20-30 kt. The shear will
probably easily decouple the small system, causing the intensity to
decrease much faster than suggested by most of the intensity models.
For that reason, the official NHC intensity forecast is below the
intensity consensus on days 3 through 5. It should be noted that
both the GFS and ECMWF models show a weakening cyclone moving into
the eastern Caribbean Sea by days 4 and 5, with the GFS even making
the system an open wave by the end of the forecast period. These
global model solutions lend credence to the belief that it may be
difficult for Isaac to maintain hurricane status while it approaches
the Lesser Antilles.

Isaac is accelerating toward the west with an initial motion of
275/10 kt. Ridging to the north is expected to keep the cyclone on
a westward trajectory for the entire forecast period, with
acceleration continuing for the next 36 hours. The UKMET remains
the biggest outlier, showing Isaac turning northwestward and
northward into the central Atlantic after 48 hours. That still
appears to be unlikely at this time, and the NHC track forecast is
still close to the center of the guidance envelope. Only a slight
northward shift was made to the new forecast based on the latest
model solutions.


Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Monday
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

2. While Isaac is forecast to begin weakening by Tuesday while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be at or
near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands, and the
uncertainty in the intensity forecast is higher than usual.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.5N 40.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.8N 45.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.9N 48.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 14.9N 50.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 15.0N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 15.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-09 23:34

WTNT34 KNHC 092031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...ISAAC ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 40.3W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2240 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 40.3 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and is expected to
accelerate during the next 36 hours. A westward motion is forecast
to continue through the end of the week, with Isaac expected to
move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
Wednesday night or Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Isaac
is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Weakening is anticipated
to begin by the middle of the week while Isaac approaches the
Lesser Antilles.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-09 23:34

WTNT24 KNHC 092031
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.3W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.3W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N 45.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.9N 48.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 50.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-09 17:33

WTNT44 KNHC 091433
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

WindSat microwave data from several hours ago show that Isaac has
developed a well-defined low-level ring in the 37-GHz channel, and
the center is embedded in the middle of a small central dense
overcast. TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have increased to T3.5
given Isaac's improved structure, so the initial intensity is raised
to 55 kt.

Isaac's future intensity is the most challenging part of the
forecast. Since sea surface temperatures will be warm (between
27-28 degrees Celsius) and vertical shear will be almost
non-existent (less than 10 kt) for the next 36-48 hours, the tiny
storm will be prone to a possibly significant increase in intensity
during the next couple of days. For that period, the NHC intensity
forecast is above the guidance, and above the previous forecast, due
to relatively high numbers from the various rapid intensification
indices. However, in 2-3 days, the global models are showing
northwesterly shear steadily increasing and potentially reaching a
maximum of around 30 kt by Thursday. The big question is the
timing of this shear and how much it will affect Isaac's intensity
before the cyclone reaches the Lesser Antilles. The HWRF, which
brings Isaac to major hurricane intensity despite the forecast
shear, appears to be an outlier, and is therefore pulling up the
ICON intensity consensus and HCCA. As a result, the NHC intensity
forecast is below ICON on days 4 and 5. This new forecast shows a
more peaked maximum intensity, with Isaac possibly increasing and
then decreasing in strength at faster rates than shown here.

While the microwave data indicate that Isaac's center is slightly
south of previous estimates, the current motion estimate is 270/8
kt. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to move westward in
tandem with Isaac for much of the forecast period, causing the
cyclone to accelerate toward the west, reaching a forward speed of
around 15 kt by 36 hours, and then holding that speed through day
5. With the exception of the UKMET and HWRF models, the guidance
envelope is tightly packed from north to south, and the speed
differences noted over the past few days have decreased. The
updated NHC track forecast is just a little south of the previous
one to account for the adjusted initial position, and lies slightly
south of the multi-model consensus in the direction of HCCA and the
Florida State Superensemble.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.3N 39.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.4N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 14.4N 43.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.4N 46.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.3N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 14.2N 54.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 14.5N 60.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-09 17:33

WTNT34 KNHC 091432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...ISAAC STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 39.1W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 39.1 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and is expected to
accelerate during the next 36 hours. A westward motion is forecast
to continue through the end of the week, with Isaac expected to
move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Isaac
is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight.
Weakening is anticipated to begin by the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-09 11:33

WTNT44 KNHC 090840
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

The cloud pattern of Isaac has changed significantly during the past
several hours. The storm no longer has a sheared appearance, and
instead microwave images reveal a well-defined curved band that
wraps a little more than halfway around the center. Despite the
change in the storm's structure, the Dvorak classifications are
unchanged at 3.0/45 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity
is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

Now that the shear has lessened, Isaac should steadily strengthen
during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and
in a low wind shear environment. Beyond a few days, however, the
SHIPS model shows a notable increase in shear, in part due to the
outflow from Florence, which should end the strengthening trend and
induce some weakening. There was no significant change in the
intensity guidance this cycle, so the official forecast is largely
an update of the previous one. This prediction lies fairly
close to the IVCN and HCCA models.

Isaac remains on the forecast track and the initial motion is the
same as before, 270/7. A strengthening subtropical ridge to the
north of the system should cause Isaac to move westward at an
increasing forward speed during the next several days. Although
there is some spread in the models, the usually more reliable GFS
and ECMWF models have been consistent in showing a due westward
motion through the forecast period. The NHC track forecast leans
toward those models, and it is fairly similar to the previous
prediction. Based on the current forecast, Isaac will be near the
Lesser Antilles in 4 to 5 days and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 14.5N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 14.7N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 14.7N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 14.7N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 14.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 14.9N 58.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 15.3N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-09 11:33

WTNT34 KNHC 090840
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 38.1W
ABOUT 1540 MI...2475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 38.1 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Isaac is expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-09 11:33

WTNT24 KNHC 090839
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 37.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.6N 39.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.7N 41.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 44.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 47.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.7N 53.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 14.9N 58.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 15.3N 64.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 38.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-09 05:32

WTNT44 KNHC 090242
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Isaac is strengthening this evening. Satellite images indicate that
the deep convection has been increasing in intensity and coverage
with better defined banding features. The center is not located in
the center of the convection, however, due to some easterly shear.
An ASCAT pass around 00Z showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt
range. These data are also in line with the latest Dvorak
classifications of 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on these
estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

Isaac will likely continue to strengthen during the next few days as
the storm remains over warm waters and moves into an environment of
decreasing wind shear. Beyond a few days, the SHIPS model shows a
notable increase in shear, in part due to the outflow from Florence,
which should end the strengthening trend and cause some weakening.
With the exception of the HMON and COAMPS-TC models, the remainder
of the intensity guidance is higher this cycle. The NHC intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, but it is a little lower
than the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

The storm is moving due westward at 7 kt. The track forecast seems
fairly straightforward. A strengthening subtropical ridge to the
north of the system should cause Isaac to move westward at an
increasing forward speed during the next several days. This
scenario is supported by the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF
models, and the NHC track forecast is near a blend of those aids.
Based on the current forecast, Isaac will be near the Lesser
Antilles in 4 to 5 days and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 14.4N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 14.4N 38.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 14.5N 43.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 14.5N 46.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 14.5N 51.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 14.6N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 15.0N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-09 05:32

WTNT34 KNHC 090241
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...ISAAC STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 37.5W
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 37.5 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Isaac is expected to become a hurricane by
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-09 05:32

WTNT24 KNHC 090241
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 37.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 37.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 37.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.4N 38.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.5N 46.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 14.6N 57.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 37.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-08 23:33

WTNT44 KNHC 082048
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

The structure of the cyclone, while still a shear pattern, is
improving, with the low-level center now near the convective
overcast and improved outflow in the eastern semicircle. Satellite
intensity estimates have increased to the 30-45 kt range, with the
CIMSS satellite consensus technique now suggesting winds near 35
kt. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is increased to
35 kt and the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaac.

Isaac is now moving slowly westward, with the initial motion 275/6.
The subtropical ridge to the north of Isaac is forecast to steer the
system westward with an increasing forward speed for at least the
next 2-3 days. After that time, there is some uncertainty in the
track forecast due to the formation of a mid- to upper-level trough
over the central Atlantic, with some of the track guidance showing a
decrease in forward speed and a more northerly motion near the end
of the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF models show a continued
westerly motion through that time, and the official forecast follows
that scenario, although with a slower forward speed than in the
previous forecast. The new forecast is again similar to the
earlier forecast and lies near the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening during the
next 72 h as Isaac moves westward across the warm waters of the
tropical Atlantic. In best agreement with the SHIPS model for the
next three days, the new intensity forecast is raised from the
previous forecast during this time. From 72-120 h, the system is
expected to encounter westerly wind shear, which is expected to
cause some weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 14.5N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.6N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 14.7N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 14.7N 44.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 14.5N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 14.5N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 23:33

WTNT34 KNHC 082048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 36.6W
ABOUT 1640 MI...2640 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 36.6 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward motion
with an increase in forward speed are expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Isaac could become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 23:33

WTNT24 KNHC 082047
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 36.6W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 36.6W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 36.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.6N 37.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.7N 42.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 44.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 14.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 36.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-08 17:32

WTNT44 KNHC 081457
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

The structure of Tropical Depression Nine is improving as the
ongoing shear diminishes, with the convection getting closer to the
low-level center. However, recent scatterometer data indicates
that the system has not yet become a tropical storm, and the
initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The cyclone is still moving fairly slowly, with the initial motion
now 300/5. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is
forecast to steer the system westward with an increasing forward
speed for at least the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is
some uncertainty in the track forecast due to the formation of a
mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The Canadian
and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to slow down and turn
northwestward near the end of the forecast period due to the trough,
while the ECMWF and GFS show a continued westward motion. The track
forecast follows the ECMWF/GFS scenario and shows a faster westward
motion than the previous forecast. The new forecast also lies near
the various consensus models.

With the shear diminishing, conditions are becoming more favorable
for the cyclone to strengthen during the next 72 h. However, there
are still concerns about dry air entraining into the system. The
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast with the
cyclone becoming a tropical storm in about 12 h and a hurricane in
about 72 h. After 72 h, the system is expected to encounter
another round of shear, which is expected to cause some weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 14.7N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 14.8N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.8N 40.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 14.8N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 14.5N 49.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 14.5N 55.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 14.5N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 17:32

WTNT34 KNHC 081453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 36.0W
ABOUT 1680 MI...2700 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 36.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
A turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are
expected later today and tonight, with a westward motion continuing
into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and
a hurricane by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 17:32

WTNT24 KNHC 081453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 36.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 36.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N 36.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 38.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.8N 40.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.8N 43.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 14.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 14.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 36.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-08 11:32

WTNT44 KNHC 080855
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

The depression continues to be affected by moderate to strong east
to southeasterly vertical wind shear, which has resulted in the
bulk of the deep convection being displaced to the west of the
low-level center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt
based on Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from
both TAFB and SAB.

The depression has been meandering in the same general area for the
past 12-18 h due to being caught in a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. However, recent microwave satellite data suggest that the
cyclone is now moving slowly northwestward. A turn toward the west
is expected to occur later today as a shortwave trough to the north
that has weakened the ridge lifts out, allowing the ridge to fill
back in and build westward to the north of the Lesser Antilles. The
latest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed, and the
official forecast track lies down the middle of the envelope near a
blend of the consensus aids TCVA, HCCA, FSSE.

Although the wind shear is forecast to gradually weaken and become
less than 5 kt by 36-48 h, which would favor rapid strengthening,
the airmass that the cyclone is embedded is fairly dry. Since
mid-level humidity values are forecast to decrease from the current
60-percent range down to around 50 percent by 48 hours and beyond,
only modest strengthening is expected during the next 4 days. By day
5, vertical wind shear from the southwest is forecast to increase to
20-25 kt, serving to cap the intensification process. The NHC
intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA
consensus models, and continues to remain below the stronger HWRF
model at days 4 and 5, which makes the cyclone a major hurricane in
78 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 14.3N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.4N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 14.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 14.9N 57.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-08 11:32

WTNT34 KNHC 080854
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OVER
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 35.4W
ABOUT 1720 MI...2765 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 35.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A turn toward the west is expected later today, and that general
motion at a slightly faster forward speed is forecast to continue
through the weekend and into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and
a hurricane by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-08 11:32

WTNT24 KNHC 080854
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 35.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 35.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.4N 36.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 37.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 14.9N 57.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 35.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-08 05:32

WTNT44 KNHC 080255
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

The depression continues to be impeded by moderate easterly shear
with the center of circulation decoupled to the east of a deep
convective banding feature. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt
based on subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The dynamical-statistical intensity guidance, as well as the
large-scale models, indicate that the shear should diminish to less
than 10 kt within the next 24 hours. A more favorable upper-wind
pattern along with warm oceanic temperatures is expected to promote
steady strengthening commencing after that time. The intensity
forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA consensus
models and remains below the stronger HWRF at days 4 and 5.

The depression has been meandering during the past several
hours, as a result of weak low- to mid-level steering currents
created by a deep-layer trough digging southward over the eastern
Atlantic. In 12 to 24 hours, a westward motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is forecast thereafter as the trough lifts
northeast, and the subtropical ridge re-establishes to the north of
the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies closest to the HCCA and
TVCN guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the
end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.9N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.1N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 14.2N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 14.3N 38.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 14.4N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 14.4N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 14.4N 50.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-08 05:32

WTNT34 KNHC 080254
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 34.9W
ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 34.9 West. The
depression is stationary and little motion is expected through
tonight. A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-08 05:32

WTNT24 KNHC 080254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 34.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 34.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 35.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.1N 35.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.2N 36.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.3N 38.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.4N 40.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.4N 45.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 14.4N 50.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 34.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-07 23:33

WTNT44 KNHC 072058 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Corrected bin number from 2 to 4

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the
eastern tropical Atlantic has developed a well-defined center and
sufficient deep convection to be classified a tropical depression,
the ninth one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season and second one
of the day. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a 2.0
Dvorak classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data.

The depression has not moved much today, and it has even wobbled a
bit to the east recently. This slow motion is a result of very
weak steering with broad troughing to the north and Tropical
Depression Eight to its east. Little motion is expected through
tonight, but a westward motion with a gradual increase in forward
speed is forecast thereafter as a subtropical ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies closest to the
HCCA guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the
end of the forecast period.

The depression is experiencing some influences of easterly shear,
which is why the center is currently on the eastern edge of the
convection. Little change in intensity is expected during the next
12 to 24 hours since the cyclone is still in the developing stage
and because moderate shear is expected to continue. However, the
shear is expected to decrease to less than 10 kt in about 24 hours.
These more favorable winds aloft combined with relatively warm
waters and a fairly moist airmass should allow for steady
strengthening beginning later in the weekend. There is a large
spread in the intensity guidance, with the HWRF showing the system
becoming a major hurricane and HMON showing almost no strengthening.
The NHC intensity forecast lies a little below consensus models
since it appears that it will take some time for the system to
strengthen.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.6N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-07 23:33

WTNT42 KNHC 072044
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the
eastern tropical Atlantic has developed a well-defined center and
sufficient deep convection to be classified a tropical depression,
the ninth one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season and second one
of the day. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a 2.0
Dvorak classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data.

The depression has not moved much today, and it has even wobbled a
bit to the east recently. This slow motion is a result of very
weak steering with broad troughing to the north and Tropical
Depression Eight to its east. Little motion is expected through
tonight, but a westward motion with a gradual increase in forward
speed is forecast thereafter as a subtropical ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies closest to the
HCCA guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the
end of the forecast period.

The depression is experiencing some influences of easterly shear,
which is why the center is currently on the eastern edge of the
convection. Little change in intensity is expected during the next
12 to 24 hours since the cyclone is still in the developing stage
and because moderate shear is expected to continue. However, the
shear is expected to decrease to less than 10 kt in about 24 hours.
These more favorable winds aloft combined with relatively warm
waters and a fairly moist airmass should allow for steady
strengthening beginning later in the weekend. There is a large
spread in the intensity guidance, with the HWRF showing the system
becoming a major hurricane and HMON showing almost no strengthening.
The NHC intensity forecast lies a little below consensus models
since it appears that it will take some time for the system to
strengthen.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.6N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-07 23:33

WTNT34 KNHC 072057 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Corrected bin number from 2 TO 4

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 34.9W
ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 34.9 West. The
depression is stationary and little motion is expected through
tonight. A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours, but
gradual strengthening is forecast late this weekend and early next
week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-07 23:33

WTNT32 KNHC 072044
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 34.9W
ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 34.9 West. The
depression is stationary and little motion is expected through
tonight. A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours, but
gradual strengthening is forecast late this weekend and early next
week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-07 23:33

WTNT24 KNHC 072057 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

CORRECTED BIN NUMBER FROM 2 TO 4

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 34.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-07 23:33

WTNT24 KNHC 072053 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

CORRECTED BIN NUMBER FROM 2 TO 4.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 34.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-07 23:33

WTNT22 KNHC 072044
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 34.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI