Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HELENE-18
in Portugal, Ireland, United Kingdom

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2018-09-16 17:32

WTNT43 KNHC 161443
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

Helene's cloud pattern has transformed into that of an
extratropical cyclone, with a large area of cold cloud tops
located well to the north and northwest of the center. An ASCAT
pass that caught the eastern portion of the circulation revealed
maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, therefore the initial wind speed
remains 45 kt for this advisory. The global models suggest that
the system will strengthen slightly today due to baroclinic
processes, and this is reflected in the official forecast.
Weakening is anticipated by late Monday, and the system is forecast
to be absorbed by a larger low pressure to the northwest of the
United Kingdom by Tuesday morning.

The cyclone is moving quickly northeastward or 055/25 kt. Now that
the system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a
northeastward motion with some additional increase in forward speed
is expected over the next day or so. The global models remain in
good agreement on the track of the post-tropical low, and the new
official forecast is an update of the previous advisory.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Interests in Ireland
and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local
meteorological service for information about potential impacts from
the post-tropical cyclone. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK
can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for
Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann
at https://www.met.ie/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 43.8N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-16 17:32

WTNT33 KNHC 161442
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

...HELENE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.8N 25.7W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM N OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Post-Tropical Helene in those locations.
Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website
of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local
forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of
Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Helene was located near latitude 43.8 North, longitude 25.7 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph
(46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase
in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track,
the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland and the United
Kingdom on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today. Some weakening is
expected by Monday, and the system is forecast to be absorbed
by another low pressure area by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another day or so
and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at:
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.
Additional information can also be found in High Seas Forecast
issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the
web at:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-16 17:32

WTNT23 KNHC 161441
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-16 11:32

WTNT43 KNHC 160843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

Helene's cloud pattern is certainly looking less and less like a
tropical cyclone this morning. Based on conventional satellite
imagery and AMSU data, Helene is quickly undergoing an extratropical
transition, and this dynamic process is expected to be completed
later today, as the cyclone moves away from the Azores. The
initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, and is based primarily on
2326 UTC ASCAT-A wind retrievals. Cold (22C) sea surface
temperatures and strong westerly shear will continue to disrupt
Helene's vertical structure and should cause the cyclone to
complete the extratropical transition in 12 hours, or sooner.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 50/22 kt,
within the ferocious mid-latitude westerlies. The global models are
in remarkably good agreement with Helene accelerating northeastward
and becoming absorbed in a large baroclinic zone extending over
northern United Kingdom in 72 hours, and the official forecast
reflects this scenario.

Earlier 2326 UTC METOP-A ASCAT scatterometer data indicated that the
34 kt and 50 kt wind radii, particularly in NW and NE quadrants, had
decreased considerably. Accordingly, an adjustment was made on this
advisory.

Interests in those locations should consult products from their
local meteorological service for information about potential impacts
from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office athttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.
Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 42.5N 28.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 44.5N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0600Z 47.4N 18.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1800Z 50.8N 10.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0600Z 55.1N 3.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-16 11:32

WTNT33 KNHC 160842
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

...HELENE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.5N 28.4W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 42.5 North, longitude 28.4 West. Helene is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should move away
from the Azores today and then approach Ireland and the United
Kingdom tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little, if any, change in strength is forecast, and
Helene is expected to become an extratropical cyclone today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Winds should continue to abate in the Azores.
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of
days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-16 11:32

WTNT23 KNHC 160841
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

THE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET
OFFICE AT HTTPS://WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT
HTTPS://WWW.MET.IE/ .

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 28.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 140SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 28.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 29.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 44.5N 24.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 47.4N 18.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 50.8N 10.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 140SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 55.1N 3.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 140SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.5N 28.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-16 05:32

WTNT43 KNHC 160232
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

The cloud pattern of Helene has continued to be disrupted by the
high shear and cold waters. The center is well displaced to the
west of the convection, and based on continuity plus the latest
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. Helene is
heading toward even colder waters and extremely high shear. This
should cause the cyclone to become extratropical in 24 hours or
sooner as indicated by the SHIPS guidance. By 72 hours, the cyclone
should have been absorbed by a much larger low.

Helene is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 22 kt.
Since the cyclone is embedded in the westerlies, this general
track should continue with an increase in forward speed until
dissipation. This is consistent with track models which are in
excellent agreement. On the forecast track, Helene should head
toward Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday as a
strong extratropical cyclone. Interests in those locations should
consult products from their local meteorological service for
information about potential impacts from Helene. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 41.2N 30.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 43.2N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 45.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 49.0N 13.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z 53.5N 6.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-16 05:32

WTNT33 KNHC 160231
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.2N 30.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Portugal has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warnings for all of the Azores Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/ .


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 41.2 North, longitude 30.1 West. Helene is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should move away
from the Azores overnight and then approach Ireland and the United
Kingdom Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be an
extratropical cyclone when it reaches Ireland and the United
Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center. The Meteorological Service of Portugal reported
that a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h) occurred in Flores Island
when Helene passed to the north of that island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Winds should continue to abate in the Azores.
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of
days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-16 05:32

WTNT23 KNHC 160231
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET
OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/ . LOCAL FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT
HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/ .

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 30.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 30.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 31.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 43.2N 26.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.5N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 53.5N 6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.2N 30.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-16 02:32

WTNT33 KNHC 152335
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...HELENE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE
AZORES...
...WINDS AND RAINS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.4N 31.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours. The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
discontinued by Sunday morning.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/ .


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 40.4 North, longitude 31.4 West. Helene is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should continue
to move past the western Azores overnight and then approach Ireland
and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, but
Helene is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center. Wind gusts to 35 mph (55 km/h) were recently
reported on Flores Island in the Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area at this time. These conditions should begin to
abate by Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches across the far western Azores. Rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches (25 to 50 mm) are expected across western Ireland and
Scotland.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of
days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-15 23:32

WTNT43 KNHC 152034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

The cloud pattern of Helene is gradually decaying and transitioning
to a shear pattern, with the low-level center occasionally visible
through breaks in the cirrus overcast. The initial intensity is
reduced to 55 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite
consensus. Helene is moving toward colder water and into increasing
shear associated with the mid-latitude westerlies. This should
cause continued weakening and, as Helene merges with a frontal
system, extratropical transition in about 36 h. The forecast will
continue to call for Helene or its remnants to be absorbed into a
large non-tropical low over the North Atlantic between 72-96 h, and
the latest global model guidance suggests this could happen earlier
than forecast.

The initial motion is now 050/19. A mostly northeastward motion at
a faster forward speed should occur during the remainder of the
cyclone's life as it becomes more embedded in the westerlies. On
the forecast track, Helene should pass near or over the western
Azores during the next several hours, and head toward Ireland and
the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday. There are again no
significant changes to either the track guidance or the official
forecast track since the last advisory.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading over portions of the Azores
and should continue through tonight.

Helene is also expected to be a storm-force post-tropical cyclone
when it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three
days. Interests in those locations should consult products from
their local meteorological service for information about potential
impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be
found on the website of the UK Met Office at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for
Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 40.2N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 41.9N 29.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 44.4N 24.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 47.2N 17.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z 51.2N 11.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1800Z 61.0N 1.0E 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-15 23:32

WTNT33 KNHC 152033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...HELENE NEARING THE WESTERN AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 32.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/ .


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 32.1 West. Helene is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should pass near
or over the western Azores tonight and then approach Ireland and the
United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, but
Helene is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of
the warning area at this time. These conditions should continue
through tonight.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts 1
to 2 inches across the far western Azores. Rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches (25 to 50 mm) are expected across western Ireland and
Scotland.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of
days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-15 23:32

WTNT23 KNHC 152032
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET
OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/ . LOCAL FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT
HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/ .

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 33.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.9N 29.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 44.4N 24.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 47.2N 17.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 51.2N 11.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 61.0N 1.0E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 140SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 32.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-15 20:32

WTNT33 KNHC 151744
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
200 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN
AZORES...
...HELENE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 33.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/ .


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 33.0 West. Helene is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should pass near
or over the western Azores later today or tonight and then approach
Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual
weakening is expected beginning tonight or on Sunday. Helene is
expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approaches
Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center. Flores recently reported a wind gust of 44 mph
(70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area within the next few hours. These conditions should
continue through tonight.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts 1
to 2 inches across the far western Azores. Rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches (25 to 50 mm) are expected across western Ireland and
Scotland.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of
days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-15 17:32

WTNT43 KNHC 151435
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

The cloud pattern of Helene is starting to show signs of decay, with
the central convection decreasing since the previous advisory and
the low-level center becoming partly exposed in a region between
convective bands. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this
advisory in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus, but
it is possible this is generous. The 34-kt wind radii in the
southeastern quadrant were revised based on a partial ASCAT pass.

Helene is moving toward colder water and into an area of strong
shear associated with the mid-latitude westerlies. This should
cause the system to weaken and, as it merges with a frontal system,
become an extratropical cyclone in about 36 h. The global models
forecast Helene to be absorbed into a large non-tropical low over
the far north Atlantic after it passes Ireland and the United
Kingdom, and thus the system is forecast to dissipate completely
between 72-96 h.

Helene has turned northeastward with the initial motion now 035/18.
A faster motion toward the northeast should occur during the
remainder of the cyclone's life as it becomes more embedded in the
westerlies. On the forecast track, Helene should pass near or over
the western Azores later today or tonight, and head toward Ireland
and the United Kingdom late this weekend and early next week.
There are no significant changes to either the track guidance or the
official forecast track since the last advisory.

Tropical storm conditions should spread over portions of the Azores
during the next several hours and continue through tonight.

Helene is also expected to be a storm-force post-tropical cyclone
when it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three
days. Interests in those locations should consult products from
their local meteorological service for information about potential
impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be
found on the website of the UK Met Office at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for
Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 38.8N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 40.8N 31.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 43.0N 27.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 45.5N 21.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1200Z 49.0N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 59.0N 1.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-15 17:32

WTNT33 KNHC 151434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...HELENE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 34.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/ .


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 34.0 West. Helene is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should pass
near or over the western Azores later today or tonight and then
approach Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual
weakening is expected beginning tonight or on Sunday. Helene is
expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approaches
Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area within the next several hours. These conditions should
continue through tonight.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts 1
to 2 inches across the far western Azores. Rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches are expected across western Ireland and Scotland.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of
days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-15 17:32

WTNT23 KNHC 151433
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET
OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/ . LOCAL FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT
HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/ .

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 34.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 34.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 34.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.8N 31.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 43.0N 27.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.5N 21.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 59.0N 1.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 34.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-15 14:32

WTNT33 KNHC 151136
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...HELENE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 34.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WSW OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/ .


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 34.4 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected by tonight. On the forecast track,
Helene will be passing near or over the Azores tonight or on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual
weakening is expected later in the weekend. Helene is expected to
transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approaches Ireland and
the United Kingdom in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts 1
to 3 inches across the western Azores, with isolated amounts up to 4
inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
across western Ireland and Scotland.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of
days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-15 11:32

WTNT43 KNHC 150841
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

Helene appears to be maintaining its strength. Recent microwave
images show that the storm has an eye feature, but the vortex is
significantly tilted in the vertical due to southwesterly shear.
Deep convection is most organized in bands to the north and west of
the center. Based on the tropical storm's appearance in microwave
images, the initial intensity is again held at 60 kt, near the high
end of the satellite intensity estimates. Helene is expected to
gradually weaken during the next few days due to the influences of
southwesterly shear, drier air, and much cooler SSTs along the
forecast track. These conditions should also cause Helene to lose
tropical characteristics, and the storm is forecast become
extratropical in 24 to 36 hours.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at a fairly fast
pace, 19 kt. The center of Helene is expected to pass to the west
of the Azores by tonight. However, Helene has a fairly large wind
field, and tropical-storm-force winds are expected across the
western Azores as the storm passes by. A shortwave trough to the
northwest of the system is expected to approach Helene by tonight,
and that should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward and then
speed up in that direction as it heads toward Ireland and the United
Kingdom late this weekend and early next week. The models are in
fair agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC
track forecast.

Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches
Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three days. Interests in
those locations should consult products from their local
meteorological service for information about potential impacts from
Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the
website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.
Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 37.7N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 39.7N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 41.8N 29.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 44.1N 24.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 46.7N 18.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z 55.8N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-15 11:32

WTNT33 KNHC 150840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...HELENE APPROACHING THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 34.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 34.8 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected by tonight. On the forecast track,
Helene will be passing near or over the Azores tonight or on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12
hours, but gradual weakening is expected later in the weekend.
Helene is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts 1
to 3 inches across the western Azores, with isolated amounts up to 4
inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
across western Ireland and Scotland.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of
days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-15 11:32

WTNT23 KNHC 150840
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET
OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT
HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 34.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 34.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 35.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.7N 32.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.8N 29.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 44.1N 24.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 46.7N 18.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 55.8N 5.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 34.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-15 08:32

WTNT33 KNHC 150530
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
200 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

...HELENE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS IN THE AZORES LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 35.4W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 35.4 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected by tonight or Sunday morning. On
the forecast track, Helene will be passing near or over the Azores
tonight or on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12
hours, but gradual weakening is expected later in the weekend.
Helene is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-15 05:32

WTNT43 KNHC 150236
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Data from a timely ASCAT pass indicate that Helene still carries
winds of 60 kt, primarily in the eastern semicircle. The cloud
pattern continues to show a low-level center just south of the main
convection, marking the strong shear which is affecting the system.
Guidance indicates that Helene will not change much in intensity in
the next 12 hours, and only a slight decrease in the winds is
anticipated after that time. The wind field is forecast to expand
mainly in the southeast quadrant, which is the area of the cyclone
that most likely will affect the Azores. After passing to the north
of, or near, the Azores in about 24 hours, Helene will be moving
over cold waters and become post-tropical. The cyclone should be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low, as the cyclone quickly
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Satellite fixes indicate that Helene is moving toward the
north-northeast or 030 degrees at about 16 kt. Helene is embedded
within the fast southwesterly flow ahead of a sharp mid-level
trough and this pattern should steer the cyclone toward the
northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. Track guidance
is very consistent with this solution, and the NHC forecast
continues in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.

Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches
Ireland and the United Kingdom in a few days. Interests in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local
forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the
UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts
and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann
at https://www.met.ie/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 35.8N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 38.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 40.3N 31.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 42.5N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0000Z 45.0N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0000Z 51.5N 9.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-15 05:32

WTNT33 KNHC 150234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...HELENE EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 35.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests in the Ireland and United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 35.8 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected by Saturday night or Sunday
morning. On the forecast track, Helene will be passing near or over
the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12
hours, but gradual weakening is expected over the weekend. Helene
should make the transition to an extratropical cyclone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-15 05:32

WTNT23 KNHC 150234
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE IRELAND AND UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET
OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT
HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 35.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 35.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 36.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.3N 31.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 51.5N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 190SE 170SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 35.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-15 02:32

WTNT33 KNHC 142337
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...HELENE EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE
AZORES THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 36.4W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

Interests in the Ireland and United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 36.4 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast early Saturday followed by a turn toward
the northeast by Sunday morning. On the forecast track, Helene will
pass near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12
hours. Gradual weakening is expected over the weekend, and Helene
should make the transition to an extratropical cyclone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-14 23:32

WTNT43 KNHC 142035
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

The 40-45 kt of southwesterly vertical shear has really taken its
toll on Helene's cloud pattern. A severe tilt toward the northeast
is evident in conventional and microwave imagery. Despite the
sheared structure of the cyclone, the initial intensity is held at
60 kt due to the earlier scatterometer pass showing that value in
the northeast quadrant, and a 1603 UTC SATCON analysis that yields
an intensity estimate of 58 kt.

Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours as
Helene remains over 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures. Beyond that
brief period, the cyclone should weaken a bit as it completes
extratropical transition while passing just to the northwest of the
Azores Islands and traversing much cooler waters. The European
models and the Canadian still show Helene being absorbed by a larger
baroclinic system in 4 days, as the cyclone quickly approaches
Ireland and the United Kingdom. The GFS, which earlier indicated a
different solution resulting in Helene taking a more north-
northeastward to northwest track around the periphery of a
larger, complex non-tropical low, now shows Helene merging with a
front, similar to the European and Canadian scenario.

A series of recent microwave passes reveal that Helene's surface
circulation has been tracking quite a bit to the left of the
previous forecasts. Consequently, an adjustment to the best track
was made to conform more with the microwave overpasses. The initial
motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/16 kt. It is also quite
possible that there maybe some binary involvement between Helene and
Tropical Storm Joyce that could be influencing a motion just to the
left of track. In any event, a north-northeast to northeast turn is
expected over the weekend as the cyclone accelerates within the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is again adjusted to the
left through 36 hours, due to the much welcomed microwave images,
and is in best agreement with TVCN multi-model consensus.

Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches
Ireland and the United Kingdom in a few days. Interests in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local
forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the
UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts
and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann
at https://www.met.ie/.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 34.1N 36.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 36.4N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 38.9N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 41.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 43.3N 25.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z 49.5N 12.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-14 23:32

WTNT33 KNHC 142034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...HELENE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE AZORES SATURDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 36.8W
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

Interests in the Ireland and United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 36.8 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h), A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast early Saturday followed by a turn toward
the northeast by Sunday morning. On the forecast track, Helene will
pass near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12
hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected over the weekend
as Helene makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-14 23:32

WTNT23 KNHC 142034
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE IRELAND AND UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET
OFFICE AT HTTPS://WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT
HTTPS://WWW.MET.IE/.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 36.8W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 36.8W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 37.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.4N 36.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.9N 33.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.0N 30.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.3N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 49.5N 12.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 36.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-14 20:32

WTNT33 KNHC 141739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
200 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...HELENE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 37.1W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

Interests in the Ireland and United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 37.1 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast Saturday followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Helene will pass
near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70
mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is
expected over the weekend as Helene makes the transition to a
post-tropical extratropical cyclone.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-14 17:33

WTNT43 KNHC 141441
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Conventional satellite imagery and a 1147 UTC METOP-B AMSU
microwave image show a deep convective curved band wrapping around
the surface circulation in the west semicircle. Additionally, a
recent 1148 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates that Helene is
a little stronger than earlier estimated. The data showed a number
of 60 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data,
Helene is still classified as a tropical cyclone, and the initial
intensity is bumped up to 60 kt for this advisory.

The large-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance
indicate little change in strength during the next 36 hours or so.
After that time, some gradual weakening is forecast as Helene
completes extratropical transition while passing just to the north
of the Azores Islands. The ECMWF, UKMET, and the CMC all show
Helene absorbed by a larger baroclinic system just beyond the 72
hour period, as the cyclone moves over Ireland and the United
Kingdom.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/20 kt,
within the deep-layer southerly flow produced by a mid-tropospheric
trough to the west. A north-northeast to northeast turn is expected
over the weekend as the cyclone quickly moves within the
mid-latitude westerlies. Only a slight adjustment to the left of
the previous track forecast was made through 48 hours. The NHC
official forecast is based primarily on the TVCN multi-model
consensus.

An orange wind warning is in effect for the Azores, equivalent to a
tropical storm warning. Tropical Storm conditions with gusty winds
and heavy rains are likely over the weekend as Helene passes the
islands, regardless of whether the cyclone is a tropical storm or
post-tropical.

Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches
Ireland and the United Kingdom in a few days. Interests in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local
forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the
UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts
and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann
at https://www.met.ie/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 32.9N 36.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 35.5N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 38.4N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 40.7N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 42.7N 25.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 47.4N 16.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-14 17:33

WTNT33 KNHC 141440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...HELENE MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 36.3W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

Interests in the Ireland and United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 36.3 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast Saturday followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Helene will pass
near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual
weakening is expected over the weekend as Helene makes the
transition to a post-tropical extratropical cyclone.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the
Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-14 17:33

WTNT23 KNHC 141440
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE IRELAND AND UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET
OFFICE AT HTTPS://WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT
HTTPS://WWW.MET.IE/.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 36.3W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 36.3W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 36.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.4N 33.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.7N 30.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.7N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.4N 16.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 36.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-14 14:34

WTNT33 KNHC 141133
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...HELENE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 36.7W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the Ireland and United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 36.7 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track,
Helene will pass near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Gradual weakening is expected after Helene becomes a
post-tropical cyclone over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of
the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-14 11:33

WTNT43 KNHC 140852
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Helene is looking increasingly like an extratropical cyclone, with
a rain shield extending from its northwest quadrant and a line of
clouds to the southeast, probably associated with a convergence
zone, that looks like a developing a front. However, earlier ASCAT
data suggested that the cyclone still had a compact wind field with
maximum winds of around 55 kt on the west side, and the most recent
available AMSU data still showed a distinct warm core.

The extratropical transition (ET) process will likely be completed
within the next 48 h, around the time that Helene will likely pass
near or over the Azores. While this process occurs, little weakening
is forecast by the various dynamical models, but gradual weakening
should occur once ET is completed. By the end of the forecast
period, nearly all of the global models depict the cyclone being
absorbed into a larger mid-latitude low pressure system over the far
northeast Atlantic.

Helene continues to accelerate northward, and the initial motion is
010/20 kt. Almost no change has been made to the track forecast.
Helene is still forecast to move quickly northward to
north-northeastward between a mid-level ridge to its east and a
sharp mid-latitude trough to its west. A northeastward turn should
occur over the weekend as Helene reaches the northern extent of the
ridge and becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The
official track forecast remains near the various consensus aids.

The government of Portugal has issued an orange wind warning for
the Azores, equivalent to a tropical storm warning. Tropical Storm
conditions with gusty winds and heavy rains are likely over the
weekend as Helene passes the islands, regardless of whether the
cyclone is a tropical storm or post-tropical.

Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches
Ireland and the United Kingdom in a few days. Interests in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local
forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the
UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 30.6N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 33.4N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 36.7N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 39.3N 30.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 41.3N 26.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/0600Z 45.5N 17.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z 51.5N 8.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-14 11:33

WTNT33 KNHC 140851
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...HELENE SPEEDING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 36.0W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
all of the Azores Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the Ireland and United Kingdom should consult products
from their local meteorological service for information about
potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts
and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met
Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and
warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 36.0 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track,
Helene will pass near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Gradual weakening is expected after Helene becomes a
post-tropical cyclone over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of
the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-14 11:33

WTNT23 KNHC 140851
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 36.0W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 36.0W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 36.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.4N 35.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.7N 33.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.3N 30.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.3N 26.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.5N 17.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 51.5N 8.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 36.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-14 08:32

WTNT33 KNHC 140538
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
200 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...HELENE HEADING NORTH...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 36.2W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 36.2 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track,
Helene will pass near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of
the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-14 05:32

WTNT43 KNHC 140234
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Helene's cloud pattern is beginning to have the appearance of a
cyclone in extratropical transition with the rain shield limited to
the northwest quadrant. The Dvorak numbers have decreased, but very
recent scatterometer data show winds of around 55 kt associated with
Helene's circulation, and this is the intensity value used in this
advisory. Most of the guidance suggests that Helene's strength
should remain steady through the forecast period, perhaps due to
baroclinic forcing. On this basis, the NHC forecast keeps Helene
with the same intensity through the forecast period, but as a
post-tropical cyclone beyond 3 days.

Helene has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the
north or 010 degrees at about 18 kt. The flow ahead of a sharp
mid-level trough is well established, and this pattern will continue
to steer Helene toward the north and then northeast during the next
few days. This is consistent with most of the track guidance which
is indeed tightly clustered. The NHC forecast is not very different
from the previous one, and is in between the corrected consensus
HCCA and the multi-model consensus aids.

Given the increase in forward speed and the expansion of the wind
field, a tropical storm warning will likely be required for a
portion of the Azores early Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 28.6N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 31.4N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 34.8N 34.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 37.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 40.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0000Z 46.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/0000Z 53.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-14 05:32

WTNT33 KNHC 140233
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...HELENE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 36.5W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 36.5 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). The cyclone is
expected to accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the
weekend. On this forecast track, Helene will be passing near or over
the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of
the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-14 05:32

WTNT23 KNHC 140233
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 36.5W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 36.5W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 36.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.4N 35.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.8N 32.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.0N 29.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 46.5N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 53.0N 5.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 36.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-14 02:32

WTNT33 KNHC 132346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...HELENE HEADING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 36.6W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 36.6 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). The cyclone is
expected to accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the
weekend. On this forecast track, Helene will be crossing over or
near the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of
the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-13 23:33

WTNT43 KNHC 132048
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Helene has maintained deep convection this afternoon though only
in the northern semicircle. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
continuing to drop, and a blend of these with the CIMSS SATCON
supports lowering the intensity to 55 kt.

Strong tropospheric vertical shear along with only lukewarm waters
are likely contributing toward Helene's weakening. The shear
should further increase during the next two days, though the sea
surface temperatures will rebound up to 27C along with an increase
in low-level moisture. Helene is expected to be either slowly
weakening or steady state during this time. Beginning in about
three days, Helene will commence baroclinic transition, and it is
expected to become an extratropical cyclone by 96 hours. The
baroclinic forcing should preclude any additional weakening through
the remainder of the forecast period, and the official intensity
forecast is nearly the same as the last advisory. This prediction
is based on a blend of the stronger HWRF/COAMPS dynamical models and
the weaker SHIPS/LGEM statistical schemes for the next couple of
days, and is based on a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET global models
at the extended lead times.

Helene is moving northward at about 12 kt between the subtropical
ridge to its east and a deep-layer trough to its west. The system
should accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the next few
days as it rounds the subtropical ridge and starts getting picked
up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is
based upon the tightly clustered variable consensus technique (TVCN)
and is nearly the same as the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 26.3N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.8N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 32.3N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 35.5N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 37.9N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 40.6N 24.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 44.0N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1800Z 51.0N 7.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-13 23:33

WTNT33 KNHC 132047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE AZORES ISLANDS FOR
HELENE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 37.0W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
all of the Azores Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 37.0 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). The system is
expected to accelerate and turn toward the northeast by Monday. On
this forecast track, Helene will be crossing over or near the
Azores late Saturday or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches
across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of
the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-13 23:33

WTNT23 KNHC 132044
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 37.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 37.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 37.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.8N 36.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.3N 35.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.5N 34.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.9N 31.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 40.6N 24.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 44.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 51.0N 7.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 37.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

2018-09-13 17:33

WTNT43 KNHC 131439
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Helene continues with very limited deep convection, only observed
this morning in the northwestern quadrant. Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB are dropping, and a blend of these with the CIMSS
SATCON indicates an intensity of 60 kt. Thus Helene has weakened to
a tropical storm.

Strong tropospheric vertical shear along with only lukewarm waters
are likely contributing toward Helene's weakening. The shear
should further increase during the next two days, though the sea
surface temperatures will rebound up to 27C along with an increase
in low-level moisture. A slow weakening is thus expected.
Beginning in about three days, Helene will commence baroclinic
transition, and it is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by
96 hours. This forcing should preclude any additional weakening
through the remainder of the forecast period. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The
prediction is based on a blend of the stronger HWRF dynamical model
and the weaker SHIPS/LGEM statistical schemes for the next couple
of days, and is based on a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET global
models at the extended lead times.

Helene is moving northward at about 12 kt between the subtropical
ridge to its east and a deep-layer trough to its west. The system
should accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the next few
days as it rounds the subtropical ridge and starts getting picked
up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is
based upon the variable consensus technique (TVCN) and is just
north of the previous forecast through three days. The
guidance suite remains tightly clustered and indicates that Helene
will pass near the Azores in 2 or 3 days. Interests in
those islands should closely monitor the progress of Helene.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 24.8N 37.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.2N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 30.8N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 34.2N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 37.2N 33.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 40.5N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 44.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1200Z 51.5N 9.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-13 17:33

WTNT33 KNHC 131437
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...HELENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 37.3W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 37.3 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). The system should
accelerate and turn toward the northeast by Sunday. On the
forecast track, Helene will be approaching the Azores late Saturday
or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have dropped to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some continued weakening is forecast during the
next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-13 17:33

WTNT23 KNHC 131436
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 37.3W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 37.3W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 37.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.2N 37.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.8N 36.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.2N 35.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.2N 33.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 40.5N 26.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 44.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 51.5N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 37.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

2018-09-13 11:33

WTNT43 KNHC 130848
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Helene's surface circulation has become fully exposed this morning
with the center decoupled about 110 miles south of edge of the
remaining deep convection. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have decreased and support lowering the initial
intensity to 65 kt.

Statistical and global model guidance show the southwesterly shear
increasing significantly in 12 hours or so, however, the 26 to
27C sea surface temperatures should govern the weakening trend a
little. In 3 days, Helene is forecast to move over much cooler
waters while the cyclone becomes embedded in the hostile
mid-latitude upper-level westerlies. Subsequently, further
weakening is expected at a faster pace. By day 4, the large-scale
models all show Helene acquiring extratropical cyclone
characteristics as it moves toward Ireland and the United
Kingdom. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and is based primarily on the NOAA-HCCA and the IVCN
consensus models.

Helene is still moving northward, or 355/12 kt, within the
deep-layer southerly flow produced by an amplifying mid-Atlantic
trough to the west of the cyclone. In 48 hours, Helene is forecast
to turn north-northeastward followed by a turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward motion at the 72 hour period. The
guidance suite remains tightly clustered through day 4, with some
slight spread at day 5, and indicates that Helene will pass near the
Azores in about 3 days. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of Helene over the next few days. The official
forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and lies close
to the TVCN multi-model consensus through the entire forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 23.5N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 25.7N 37.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 29.1N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 32.5N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 35.8N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 40.7N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 44.6N 19.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/0600Z 51.1N 10.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-13 11:33

WTNT33 KNHC 130847
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...HELENE WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 37.3W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM SSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 37.3 West. Helene is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight followed by a turn toward the northeast over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm
by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-13 11:33

WTNT23 KNHC 130847
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 37.3W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 37.3W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 37.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.7N 37.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.1N 36.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 36.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.7N 28.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 44.6N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 51.1N 10.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 37.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-13 05:32

WTNT43 KNHC 130238
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

Helene's surface circulation has become rather difficult to find
this evening in shortwave and enhanced infrared satellite imagery.
Based on an earlier SSMI/S microwave pass, the center was removed
well to the south of the convective mass. A blend of the Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as a SATCON analysis
of 72 kt, yields an initial intensity of 70 kt for this advisory.

Global models and the ECMWF/GFS Decay SHIPS models show the
southwesterly shear increasing significantly in 24 hours, however,
the warm sea surface temperatures are expected to limit the
weakening trend some. Beyond the 48 hour period, Helene is expected
to traverse cooler waters while the harsh upper wind environment
persists. Therefore, additional weakening is forecast at a
faster rate. Toward the end of the period, the global models, as
well as the Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution analysis and
forecast product, show Helene transitioning to a post-tropical
extratropical cyclone as it moves toward Ireland and the United
Kingdom.

Helene is estimated to be moving northward, or 350/11 kt, within the
mid-tropospheric southerly flow produced by an amplifying deep-layer
trough over the central Atlantic. At the 48 hour period, the
cyclone should turn to the north-northeast followed by a
northeastward turn with an increase in forward motion toward the
end of the forecast period. The large-scale models, and the
HWRF hurricane model, are clustered fairly close together and
indicate that Helene will pass near the Azores in about 72 hours.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
Helene over the next several days. The NHC forecast lies in the
middle of the guidance envelope and is nudged toward the TVCN
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 22.4N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 24.4N 37.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 27.3N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 30.7N 36.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 34.3N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 40.1N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 43.4N 22.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 48.7N 12.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-13 05:32

WTNT33 KNHC 130237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...HELENE WEAKENS SOME MORE...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 36.9W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM SSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
ABOUT 1225 MI...1975 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 36.9 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
Thursday night followed by a turn toward the northeast over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-13 05:32

WTNT23 KNHC 130237
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 36.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 36.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 36.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.4N 37.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.3N 37.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 36.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.3N 35.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.1N 30.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 43.4N 22.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 48.7N 12.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 36.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-12 23:32

WTNT43 KNHC 122041
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

The eye has continued to become less distinct in conventional
imagery, but the overall convective pattern remains well organized
and symmetric. Based on the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial
intensity is lowered to 75 kt. Most of the guidance show a
significant increase in the shear in 24 hours, but the SSTs are not
changing much for the next 2 days or so, thus gradual weakening is
forecast. After that time, both shear and SSTs will become
highly unfavorable, resulting in additional weakening. By the end of
the forecast period, Helene should have acquired extratropical
characteristics.

The hurricane is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 12 kt,
embedded in the southerly flow to the east of the digging trough
over the central Atlantic. Since the trough is forecast to amplify,
Helene will be forced to turn to the north-northeast and northeast
with an increase in forward speed. The global models remain in
fairly good agreement on the current forecast track of Helene, and
they all bring the cyclone near the Azores in about 3 days.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
Helene over the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 21.4N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 23.1N 37.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 26.0N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 29.0N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 39.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 43.0N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 47.5N 14.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-12 23:32

WTNT33 KNHC 122041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...HELENE HEADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 36.7W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 36.7 West. Helene is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-12 23:32

WTNT23 KNHC 122040
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 36.7W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 36.7W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 36.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.1N 37.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.0N 37.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.0N 36.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.0N 32.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 43.0N 24.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 47.5N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 36.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-12 17:34

WTNT43 KNHC 121433
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

The eye has become less distinct, but the overall convective pattern
remains well organized and symmetric. Based on the latest Dvorak
estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 80 kt. Most of the
guidance show a significant increase in the shear in 24 hours,
but the SSTs are not changing much for the next 2 days or so, thus
gradual weakening is forecast. After that time, both shear and SSTs
will become belligerently unfavorable, resulting in additional
weakening. By the end of the forecast period, Helene should have
acquired extratropical characteristic.

The hurricane is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees
at 12 kt, embedded in the southerly flow to the east of the digging
trough over the central Atlantic. Since the trough is forecast to
amplify, Helene will be forced to turn to the north-northeast and
northeast with an increase in forward speed. The global models
remain in fairly good agreement on the current forecast track of
Helene, and they all bring the cyclone near the Azores in 3 or 4
days. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress
of Helene over the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 20.3N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 22.0N 37.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 24.5N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 27.5N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 31.0N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 37.7N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 42.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 47.5N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-12 17:34

WTNT33 KNHC 121432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...HELENE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 36.5W
ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 36.5 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
north and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days,
and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-12 17:34

WTNT23 KNHC 121432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 36.5W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 36.5W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 36.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 37.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.5N 37.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 37.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.0N 36.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.7N 33.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 42.5N 26.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 47.5N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 36.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-12 11:32

WTNT43 KNHC 120835
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

Earlier this morning, Helene looked quite ragged in IR imagery. The
eye became poorly defined and cloud tops were steadily warming.
However, beginning around 0500 UTC, a new burst of convection began
wrapping around the previously open western portion of Helene's
inner core. Objective and subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates range from 77 to 91 kt, and the initial intensity is
therefore set at 80 kt as a blend of all of these data.

Despite the fact that Helene appears to be on the upswing at the
moment, the cyclone is still passing over sub-26 deg C waters and
all of the intensity guidance shows weakening for the next 24 h.
Beyond that time, there is still some spread among the intensity
models, though it has decreased since the last advisory. Helene will
begin interacting with a mid-latitude trough over the north-central
Atlantic, which will result in an increase in shear over the
hurricane. However, Helene will also begin to move over warmer
waters and could get some baroclinic support from the upper-level
trough. Overall the intensity guidance is a little lower than
before, and now the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the
intensity guidance envelope.

Once again, no meaningful change has been made to the NHC track
forecast which continues to closely follow the HFIP Corrected
Consensus. Helene is moving north-northwestward, and should
gradually turn northward, and eventually northeastward, as the
cyclone is steered between a mid-level ridge to the east and the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough to northwest. The global models
remain in fairly good agreement on the track of Helene, especially
through 72-96 h, when Helene is forecast to pass near the Azores,
and interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress
of Helene over the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 19.2N 35.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 20.7N 36.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 22.9N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 25.5N 37.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 28.9N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 36.0N 34.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 41.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 45.5N 19.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-12 11:32

WTNT33 KNHC 120834
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...HELENE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 35.7W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 35.7 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn
toward the north is expected later today. A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is likely by the end of
the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days,
and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-12 11:32

WTNT23 KNHC 120834
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 35.7W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 35.7W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 35.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.7N 36.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.9N 37.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 37.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.9N 36.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.0N 34.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 41.0N 28.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 45.5N 19.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 35.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-12 05:35

WTNT43 KNHC 120233
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that Helene is gradually weakening,
likely due to cool SSTs of around 25.5 deg C beneath the cyclone.
The eye has become a little less distinct and cloud tops associated
with the inner-core convection have warmed. The initial intensity
has been lowered to 85 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI
numbers from TAFB. Continued weakening is likely for the next 36 to
48 h since Helene will remain over marginal SSTs, and the intensity
guidance is in good agreement. After that time, the cyclone will
reach somewhat warmer waters and will begin to interact with an
upper-level trough to the northwest. While this interaction will
cause an increase of shear over Helene, it could also provide some
baroclinic support to help maintain Helene's intensity before it
undergoes extratropical transition. Some of the dynamical models
suggest that reintensification is possible through this period,
while the statistical models quickly weaken the cyclone. For now the
official intensity forecast continues to show little change in
intensity from 72-120 h and remains close to the various intensity
consensus aids, but confidence in this portion of the forecast is
lower.

Virtually no change has been made to the official track forecast.
Helene is currently moving northwestward, and a steady turn
northward, and eventually northeastward is expected as the cyclone
is steered between a mid-level ridge to the east and a trough to
west. All of the global models are in good agreement, with the
forward speed of the cyclone being the only notable difference from
model to model. Since I have no reason to depart from the consensus
at this point, the NHC forecast remains very close to HCCA through
day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 18.0N 35.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 19.3N 36.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 21.2N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 23.6N 37.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 26.6N 37.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 33.7N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 40.5N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 45.0N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-12 05:35

WTNT33 KNHC 120232
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...HELENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 35.4W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 35.4 West. Helene is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected by Thursday. Helene is forecast to
accelerate and turn toward the northeast by the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is likely over the next couple of days,
and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-12 05:35

WTNT23 KNHC 120232
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 35.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 35.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 36.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 37.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.6N 37.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.6N 37.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.7N 35.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 40.5N 31.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 23.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 35.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-11 23:33

WTNT43 KNHC 112032
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Helene is feeling the effects of cooler waters, and the convection
surrounding the distinct eye is weaker that earlier today. Dvorak
numbers are decreasing, and only support an initial intensity of 90
kt. Both cooler waters and high shear will continue to impact the
hurricane, and Helene will probably weaken to a tropical storm
in about 36 hours or so. The NHC forecast calls for a decrease in
the winds at the same rate as the intensity consensus aids.

Helene is already on the southwestern side of the subtropical
ridge, and it is now moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at
10 kt. Global models continue to develop a large mid-level trough
over eastern Atlantic, and the flow associated with this trough
should steer Helene north-northwestward and northward during the
next day to so. The cyclone should then recurve northeastward with
an increase in forward speed and by Friday, a weakened Helene
should be approaching the Azores. At the very long range, the
cyclone will begin to lose tropical characteristics over the even
colder waters of the north Atlantic. There has been little change in
the track forecast since models have been very consistent with the
current solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 17.2N 34.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 18.3N 36.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 20.2N 37.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 22.3N 37.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 25.0N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 31.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 39.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 43.5N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-11 23:33

WTNT33 KNHC 112031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...HELENE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 34.9W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1515 MI...2435 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 34.9 West. Helene is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest
on Wednesday. Thereafter, Helene should recurve northeastward
with increasing forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Helene should weaken to a
tropical storm on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-11 23:33

WTNT23 KNHC 112031
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 34.9W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 34.9W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 34.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.3N 36.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.2N 37.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 37.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.5N 37.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 39.0N 32.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 43.5N 25.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 34.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-11 17:32

WTNT43 KNHC 111441
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

It appears that Helene already peaked in intensity earlier this
morning with 95 kt. The cloud pattern has not changed much, and
still consists of a large eye surrounded by deep convection.
However, these convective tops have warmed a little, and
consequently Dvorak numbers have remained steady. From now on,
Helene will begin to move over increasingly cooler waters, and
become embedded within higher shear in about a day. These
environmental conditions should result in weakening, and the NHC
forecast calls for a decrease in the winds at the same rate as the
intensity consensus aids.

Helene has turned toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 10 kt.
Models continue to erode the ridge to the north of the cyclone, and
are also developing a large mid-level trough over eastern Atlantic.
This forecast flow pattern will force Helene to turn more toward the
north-northwest and north ahead of the trough for the next 2 to 3
days. After that time, the cyclone will recurve in the mid-
latitude westerlies, and will begin to lose tropical characteristics
at the very long ranges. Track models are in very good agreement
with this solution. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the
guidance envelope and in between HCCA and the multi-model consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.5N 34.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.5N 35.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 18.9N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 20.7N 37.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 22.5N 38.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 27.5N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 35.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 40.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-11 17:32

WTNT33 KNHC 111440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...HELENE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 34.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1550 MI...2495 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 34.3 West. Helene is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue today with a turn toward the north-northwest and
northward thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin tonight, and Helene
is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-11 17:32

WTNT23 KNHC 111440
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 34.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 34.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 34.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.9N 36.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.7N 37.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.5N 38.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 35.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 40.0N 30.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 34.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-11 11:34

WTNT43 KNHC 110833
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

An Advanced Microwave Technology Sounder (ATMS) 165GHZ overpass on
Helene indicated a well-developed closed eyewall and a deep
convective outer band with associated cold cloud tops of -76C
wrapping around the south through east quadrants of the cyclone.
The initial intensity is held at 95 kt for this advisory and is
based on a blend of the subjective and objective T-numbers.

There still appears to be a small window of opportunity for Helene
to strengthen, during the next 12 hours or so, before the ocean and
the upper wind environment become less conducive. Afterward, the
SSTs decrease significantly and the vertical shear increases, which
should induce gradual weakening. By day 3, the sea surface
temperatures increase, however, the southwesterly shear persists and
the mid-level atmospheric moisture decreases. Interestingly
enough, the global models show Helene either maintaining tropical
storm strength or even intensifying by the end of the period,
possibly due to some mid-latitude dynamic forcing influences. It's
also worth noting that the Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution
analysis and forecast product shows the system retaining a
relatively symmetric warm core through the entire forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/12
kt. A turn more toward the northwest is forecast early on
Wednesday. Beyond mid-period, the large-scale models agree that a
mid- to upper tropospheric trough over the northeast Atlantic will
dig southward inducing a weakness in the eastern portion of the
subtropical ridge. In response to this change in the synoptic
steering pattern, Helene should slowly turn northward and then
north-northeastward during the next 72 to 96 hours, followed by a
turn toward the northeast on day 5. The official forecast is close
to the previous one, and lies near the TVCN consensus model and the
GFS ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 16.0N 33.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 16.8N 35.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 18.0N 36.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 19.5N 37.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 21.4N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 25.7N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 31.4N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 37.3N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-11 11:34

WTNT33 KNHC 110833
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...HELENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 33.6W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1570 MI...2530 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 33.6 West. Helene is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest is
forecast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours, but
a gradual weakening trend is expected after that time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-11 11:34

WTNT23 KNHC 110832
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 33.6W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 33.6W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 33.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.8N 35.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.0N 36.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.5N 37.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.4N 38.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.7N 38.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.4N 36.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 37.3N 31.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 33.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-11 05:32

WTNT43 KNHC 110242
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Helene remains a well organized hurricane with a fairly large 25 n
mi diameter eye and ring of cold cloud tops surrounding that
feature. There are a few dry slots beyond the inner core, however,
which have prevented some of the Dvorak estimates from increasing
this cycle. A blend of the latest subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates supports raising the initial intensity
slightly to 95 kt.

The hurricane has a limited amount of time to strengthen as the
current environment of low wind shear and relatively warm SSTs will
be changing soon. Helene is expected to cross the 26 deg C isotherm
within 24 hours and it will enter an environment of increasing
south-southwesterly shear just beyond that time period. These
conditions should promote a steady weakening trend beginning late
Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, however, SSTs increase
along the forecast track, and there could be some baroclinic
enhancements to end the weakening trend and perhaps even cause some
strengthening. This scenario is supported by the HWRF/HMON regional
models and the GFS/ECMWF global models. The NHC intensity forecast
is largely an update of the previous one, except it is slightly
higher at the end of the period.

The hurricane is gradually turning to the right, with the latest
initial motion estimate being 295/13 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the north Atlantic is expected to dig
southward causing a significant weakness in the subtropical ridge.
In response to this change in the steering pattern, Helene is
forecast to gradually turn northward and then north-northeastward
during the next several days. The track models are in fairly good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope. This forecast is only a little to the right of
the previous track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.5N 32.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.2N 34.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 17.2N 35.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 18.6N 37.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 20.1N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 24.6N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 30.0N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 36.2N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-11 05:32

WTNT33 KNHC 110242
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...HELENE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 32.4W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1590 MI...2555 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 32.4 West. Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the
northwest and then north-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during
the next 12 hours, but a gradual weakening trend is expected after
that time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-11 05:32

WTNT23 KNHC 110241
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 32.4W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 32.4W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N 34.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.2N 35.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.6N 37.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.1N 38.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.6N 39.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 36.2N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 32.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-10 23:34

WTNT43 KNHC 102033
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Helene's cloud pattern continues to be well organized with a large
eye of about 20 nm in diameter, surrounded by a ring of deep
convection. The cyclone's circulation is large with numerous
cyclonically curved convective bands, and the outflow is fair in all
quadrants. Dvorak classifications have not changed much, and support
an initial intensity of 90 kt.

Helene has the opportunity to strengthen some during the next 24
hours or so, while the shear is low and the ocean is still
relatively warm. After that time, both shear and SSTs will become
less favorable and gradual weakening should then begin. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows
closely the intensity consensus aids.

Helene is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 15 kt.
Soon, the hurricane will encounter a mid-level trough which the most
reliable global models are forming in the eastern Atlantic.
This new flow pattern will force Helene to turn to the northwest
and north ahead of the developing trough. Track models are quite
consistent with this solution and the the spread of the guidance
envelope is small through the forecast period. This increases the
confidence in the Helene's northward turn, followed by recurvature
over the eastern Atlantic.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 14.9N 31.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 16.4N 35.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 17.5N 37.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 19.0N 38.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 23.0N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 28.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 34.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-10 23:34

WTNT33 KNHC 102032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 31.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1620 MI...2605 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 31.5 West. Helene is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued west-
northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and
then toward the north-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 12 to
24 hours, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-10 23:34

WTNT23 KNHC 102032
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 31.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 31.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 30.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.4N 35.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 37.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 31.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-10 17:32

WTNT43 KNHC 101436
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Helene's cloud pattern has become much better organized during the
past few hours, with a clear 20 n mi wide eye seen in Meteosat
infrared imagery, and a clear eye noted in a 1135 UTC AMSU overpass.
A Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T5.0/90 knots
at 1200 UTC, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory.
Helene will remain in an environment that should support some
additional strengthening for the next 12 hours or so, with very low
shear and SSTs of 27C or above. After that time, the SSTs cool
quickly and the shear increases dramatically by 36 hours, which
should induce steady weakening. Late in the period, the shear
continues, and while SSTs increase the atmosphere dries out, and the
intensity is held steady at day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is
above most of the guidance through 24 hours to account for the
recent intensification of the storm, but then is close to or
slightly above HCCA and IVCN.

The initial motion estimate is 285/14. The subtropical ridge north
of Helene will gradually weaken as an upper-level trough digs
southward around 40W. This pattern will cause Helene to slow down
and gradually recurve during the forecast period, with a faster
northward motion expected at days 4 and 5 as Helene interacts with
the aforementioned upper-level trough. While there is significant
variability between the various global models in the exact
evolution of the upper-level pattern, the track model guidance is
in generally good agreement on this evolution, although the UKMET,
its ensemble mean and the GEFS mean are notable outliers to the
right. The new NHC track was not changed much from the previous one
and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to
HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.6N 30.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.2N 32.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.9N 34.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 16.8N 36.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 18.0N 37.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 21.5N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 27.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-10 17:32

WTNT33 KNHC 101435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...HELENE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 30.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 30.0 West. Helene is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the
northwest and then toward the north-northwest on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected
today, and Helene is forecast to become a major hurricane by
tonight. Steady weakening is forecast to begin by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-10 17:32

WTNT23 KNHC 101435
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 30.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 30.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 29.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.2N 32.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.9N 34.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.8N 36.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.0N 37.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 39.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.0N 40.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 30.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-09-10 16:33

WTNT63 KNHC 101333
TCUAT3

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
935 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...HELENE STRENGTHENING...

Satellite imagery indicates that Helene has strengthened, with
maximum sustained winds now estimated to be 105 mph (165 km/h), with
higher gusts.

This increase in intensity will be accounted for in the advisory
that will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 935 AM AST...1335 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 29.6W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-10 14:33

WTNT43 KNHC 101133 CCA
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Corrected to change Paul to Isaac in third paragraph

Little change in the Helene's cloud pattern has been observed
during the past 6 hours. The earlier mentioned ragged banding-type
eye feature is still apparent in the enhanced infrared BD-curve
imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass. The initial
intensity is held at 75 kt, and is based on the subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates.

Helene is moving within a fairly ripe environment and over warm
oceanic sea surface temperatures. These conducive conditions
should promote additional strengthening over the next 36 hours.
Afterward, increasing south-southwesterly shear, lower
mid-tropospheric moisture, and cooler water are expected to induce
weakening, however gradually, through day 5. The official forecast
follows suit and is similar to the better performing IVCN intensity
consensus model.

Helene's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/15 kt, and this general motion is forecast during the next 48
hours. Beyond that period, a break in the subtropical ridge to the
northwest of Isaac, created by a mid- to upper-level cut-off low
digging southward, should induce a northward turn with a gradual
increase in forward motion. The large-scale models all indicate
this change in the synoptic steering pattern, although there is some
disparity on how soon Helene will turn toward the north. The NHC
track is quite close to the previous forecast and lies between the
consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 28.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.8N 30.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 16.3N 35.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 17.2N 37.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 20.3N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 25.3N 40.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 31.2N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-10 11:33

WTNT43 KNHC 100852
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Little change in the Helene's cloud pattern has been observed
during the past 6 hours. The earlier mentioned ragged banding-type
eye feature is still apparent in the enhanced infrared BD-curve
imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass. The initial
intensity is held at 75 kt, and is based on the subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates.

Helene is moving within a fairly ripe environment and over warm
oceanic sea surface temperatures. These conducive conditions
should promote additional strengthening over the next 36 hours.
Afterward, increasing south-southwesterly shear, lower
mid-tropospheric moisture, and cooler water are expected to induce
weakening, however gradually, through day 5. The official forecast
follows suit and is similar to the better performing IVCN intensity
consensus model.

Helene's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/15 kt, and this general motion is forecast during the next 48
hours. Beyond that period, a break in the subtropical ridge to the
northwest of Paul, created by a mid- to upper-level cut-off low
digging southward, should induce a northward turn with a gradual
increase in forward motion. The large-scale models all indicate
this change in the synoptic steering pattern, although there is some
disparity on how soon Helene will turn toward the north. The NHC
track is quite close to the previous forecast and lies between the
consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 28.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.8N 30.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 16.3N 35.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 17.2N 37.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 20.3N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 25.3N 40.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 31.2N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-10 11:33

WTNT33 KNHC 100852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...HELENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO RESUME STRENGTHENING TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 28.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 28.9 West. Helene is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for another couple of days. A turn to the
northwest is forecast to occur on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Helene's expected to resume strengthening today. Afterward,
weakening is forecast to commence Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-10 11:33

WTNT23 KNHC 100852
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 28.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 28.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 28.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N 30.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.3N 35.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.2N 37.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.3N 39.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.3N 40.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.2N 41.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 28.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-10 05:32

WTNT43 KNHC 100237
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Satellite images indicate that Helene continues to strengthen.
During the past several hours, a large band of deep convection has
completely wrapped around the center resulting in the formation of
a large ragged eye. Although there are well-defined outer bands in
the southern portion of the circulation, there are a few dry slots
just beyond the inner core. The latest Dvorak classifications have
increased to 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and therefore, the
initial intensity is adjusted upward to 75 kt.

Helene is currently in a low wind shear environment and over fairly
warm 27-28 deg C SSTs. These conditions are expected to prevail
for another 24-36 hours, so additional strengthening seems likely
during that period. Beyond that time, however, the environment is
expected to gradually become less favorable for Helene with
south-southwesterly shear increasing, mid-level humidities falling,
and SSTs lowering along the future path. All of these conditions
suggest a steady weakening trend beginning in a couple of days, and
the NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the latest model
guidance.

The hurricane continues to pull away from the Cabo Verde Islands,
and the initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A continued
west-northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected
for about two days while a mid-level ridge remains the primary
steering feature. After that time, a significant weakness in the
ridge, caused by a cut off deep-layer low pressure system, should
promote a northward turn with a gradual increase in forward speed.
The models are in relatively good agreement on this scenario, but
they differ on when and where Helene makes the turn. The NHC track
forecast is adjusted a little to the east at the latter forecast
times, but it still favors the left side of the guidance envelope
to be near the HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 13.9N 27.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 29.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.7N 34.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 16.4N 36.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 19.0N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 23.5N 40.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 29.6N 41.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-10 05:32

WTNT33 KNHC 100237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...HELENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 27.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 27.2 West. Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for another couple of days. A turn
to the northwest is forecast to occur on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during
the next day or so, but slow weakening should begin by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Helene could produce up to one inch
of additional rainfall over the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands
during the next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-10 05:32

WTNT23 KNHC 100237
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 27.2W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 27.2W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 26.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.4N 29.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.7N 34.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.4N 36.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.0N 38.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 29.6N 41.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 27.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-09 23:34

WTNT43 KNHC 092032
TCDAT3

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Deep convection has increased in coverage and intensity over the
southern portion of the circulation, and microwave imagery suggests
that an inner core is beginning to develop. Helene's maximum
winds are boosted to hurricane strength, 65 kt, based on Dvorak
Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB. The cyclone should
continue to traverse warm waters and be in a low-shear environment
for the next couple of days. Therefore, additional intensification
is called for during the next 48 hours. Afterwards, increasing
south-southwesterly shear should cause gradual weakening. The
official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus, IVCN.

Helene is moving just north of due west, or 280/11 kt. There are no
significant changes to the track forecast philosophy for this
advisory. Helene should move generally west-northwestward along
the south side of a weak mid-level ridge for the next couple of
days. After that, a mid-level trough digging along 40W-45W
longitude should induce a turn toward the northwest and eventually
north. The official track forecast is very similar to the one from
the previous cycle through 72 hours, and is nudged a little to the
east after that time. This is fairly close to the latest corrected
consensus guidance, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 13.4N 26.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.9N 28.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.5N 30.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.2N 33.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.9N 35.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 18.0N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 21.5N 40.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 27.5N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-09 23:34

WTNT33 KNHC 092032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 26.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for the Cabo Verde
islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 26.0 West. Helene is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Monday, with a continued
west-northwestward motion through Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Helene will continue to move away from the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through today,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-09 23:34

WTNT23 KNHC 092031
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 26.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 26.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 25.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.9N 28.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.5N 30.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.2N 33.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.9N 35.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.0N 38.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 26.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-09 20:37

WTNT33 KNHC 091732
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
200 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...HELENE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 25.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 25.5 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions
of the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible
in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands today.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through today,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-09 17:32

WTNT43 KNHC 091442
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Helene continues to exhibit a fairly well-organized cloud pattern,
but does not yet have a well-defined inner core. The current
intensity estimate, 55 kt, is based on a blend of subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates and is also close to the latest SATCON
value. The tropical cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters
with low to moderate vertical wind shear for the next couple of
days. Therefore, strengthening is likely through the early part of
this week. Later in the period, marginal SSTs and increasing
south-southwesterly shear should induce weakening. The official
wind speed forecast is on the high side of the numerical intensity
guidance.

Helene continues to move westward, or about 270/11 kt. The system
should move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a
mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic over the next 48 hours or
so. Thereafter, a mid-level trough is expected to create a
pronounced weakness in the ridge along 40W-45W longitude. This
steering pattern is likely to cause Helene to turn northwestward to
north-northwestward during the latter part of the forecast period.
The official track forecast is very similar to the previous NHC
prediction and lies roughly in the middle of the numerical guidance
suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 13.2N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 13.7N 27.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 14.3N 30.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.9N 32.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 15.7N 35.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 17.8N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 21.0N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 26.0N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-09 17:32

WTNT33 KNHC 091441
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...HELENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 25.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 25.0 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions
of the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible
in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands today.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through today,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-09 17:32

WTNT23 KNHC 091441
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 25.0W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 25.0W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 24.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.7N 27.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.3N 30.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 32.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.7N 35.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.8N 38.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 26.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 25.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-09 14:33

WTNT33 KNHC 091143
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...HELENE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 24.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 24.5 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions
of the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible
in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands today.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through today,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-09 11:33

WTNT43 KNHC 090845
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that Helene continues to become better
organized with an increase in banding overnight. A couple of
recent microwave images show that the inner core continues to
organize with a low-level ring evident and indication that a
banding-type eye is forming. Dvorak satellite T-numbers have
increased and support an initial intensity of 55 kt.

Helene is forecast to remain over SSTs of 27-28C during the next
couple of days. The upper-level wind pattern is also expected to
be quite favorable, and these conditions should support steady
intensification. Slightly cooler waters and increasing
southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the northwest of
Helene are likely to put an end to the intensification process by
day 3. After that time, Helene is forecast to move closer to the
aforementioned trough with southwesterly shear and drier mid-level
air likely to result in weakening by day 4 and 5. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the IVCN intensity consensus model, but it is a
little more conservative than the FSSE and HCCA models.

The tropical storm is moving westward or 270 degrees at 12 kt. A
deep-layer ridge to the north of the storm should steer Helene
westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days. By
mid-week, Helene is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge
between 40-50W longitude and the cyclone is predicted to turn
northwestward, then north-northwestward by the end of the period.
The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario,
but there is some spread later in the period as to exactly what
longitude the northwesterly turn takes place. The NHC forecast is
between the various dynamical model solutions and is close to the
HFIP corrected consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 13.2N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 13.4N 26.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 14.0N 28.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 14.7N 31.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 15.4N 34.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 17.4N 38.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 20.5N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 25.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-09 11:33

WTNT33 KNHC 090845
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...OUTER BANDS OF HELENE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO
VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 24.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 24.0 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a
hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions
of the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible in
the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands today.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-09 11:33

WTNT23 KNHC 090844
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 24.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 24.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 23.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.4N 26.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.0N 28.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 31.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.4N 34.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.4N 38.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 20.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 24.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-09 08:33

WTNT33 KNHC 090542
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
200 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...OUTER BANDS OF HELENE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERNMOST
CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 23.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 23.4 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the
warning area within the next few hours. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands later today.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

2018-09-09 05:32

WTNT43 KNHC 090242
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Helene continues this evening with a large area of convective
bands that wrap about three-quarters around the center. A blend of
the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB with
the CIMSS' SATCON gives an intensity of 50 kt, unchanged from the
previous advisory. The tropical storm is situated just south of the
upper-level subtropical ridge, which is inducing weak southeasterly
vertical shear. That along with warm 28C waters and a moist,
unstable atmosphere should support at least steady intensification
for the next two days. By day three, however, the shear will
increase out of the southwest as Helene moves close to an
upper-level low. Simultaneously, the SSTs will drop to near 26C and
the mid-troposphere should dry. The new intensity forecast shows a
peak of 90 kt at 48 h, with gradual to steady weakening thereafter.
This is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus (minus the
much weaker HMON solution) with a higher peak intensity than the
previous advisory but a slightly faster decay.

Helene's initial position was aided by the availability of a 2222Z
ASCAT pass, which showed it to be somewhat farther south than
earlier estimated. The initial motion is analyzed to be 260/11,
as it is steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north. The
tropical cyclone should gradually turn toward the west-northwest by
Monday, then toward the north-northwest by Wednesday. The new
track forecast - based on the TVCN multimodel consensus - is
slightly south of the previous advisory throughout the forecast
period, mainly because of the southward initial position.

The aforementioned scatterometer pass allowed for a more accurate
assessment of the initial size, which is somewhat larger than
analyzed earlier. The new wind radii prediction indicates a larger
Helene than the previous advisory, and is based upon the RVCN
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 13.2N 22.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.3N 24.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 13.8N 27.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 14.5N 30.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 15.3N 33.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 17.1N 37.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 19.5N 40.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 22.5N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-09 05:32

WTNT33 KNHC 090239
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...HELENE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 22.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 18 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 22.8 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). The system is
expected to turn toward the west-northwest by Monday at about the
same rate of forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Helene
is anticipated to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2018-09-09 05:32

WTNT23 KNHC 090238
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 22.8W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 22.8W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 22.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.3N 24.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.8N 27.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 30.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.3N 33.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.1N 37.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 19.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 22.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

2018-09-09 02:35

WTNT33 KNHC 082337
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...HELENE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 22.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PRAIA IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 22.2 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion will likely continue through Sunday. A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
Sunday night through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Helene will
pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Helene is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-09 02:35

WTNT33 KNHC 082334
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...HELEN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 22.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PRAIA IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 22.2 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion will likely continue through Sunday. A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
Sunday night through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Helene will
pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Helene is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 23:33

WTNT43 KNHC 082102
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

During the past few hours, Helene has developed a convective band
that wraps about three-quarters of the way around the storm, and
the intensity of the inner core convection has increased. In
addition, microwave imagery shows an elliptical inner ring feature.
Satellite intensity estimates at 18Z were in the 35-50 kt range, and
given the recent increase in organization the initial intensity is
increased to 50 kt.

Helene should continue to strengthen through at least 72 h in a
light vertical shear environment over sea surface temperatures near
27C. This part of the intensity forecast has been increased over
the previous forecast and lies near the intensity consensus.
However, there remain a couple of alternate forecast scenarios. The
first is that Helene could rapidly intensify and become stronger
than currently forecast, and the rapid intensification index of the
SHIPS model has about a 35 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening
in the next 24 h. The second is that a large plume of African dust
and associated dry air that has spread over the Cabo Verde Islands
starts entraining into the cyclone and inhibits intensification.
The former alternative is more likely than the latter at this time.
After 72 h, Helene is expected to encounter increasing southwesterly
shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the central
Atlantic, which should cause the system to weaken significantly.

The initial motion is 275/11. There again is little change in the
forecast guidance or the forecast track, with Helene expected to
move westward to west-northwestward for the next 3 days or so on the
south side of the subtropical ridge, then turn northwestward in
response to the aforementioned trough.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 13.6N 21.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 13.7N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 14.1N 26.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 14.7N 29.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.5N 32.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 37.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 19.5N 40.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.0N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 23:33

WTNT33 KNHC 082101
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 21.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF PRAIA IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 21.7 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion will likely continue through Sunday. A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
Sunday night through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Helene will
pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Helene is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 23:33

WTNT23 KNHC 082058
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 21.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 21.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 21.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.7N 23.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.1N 26.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.7N 29.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 32.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.5N 37.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 19.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 21.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-08 20:32

WTNT33 KNHC 081736
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
200 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...HELENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 21.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...440 KM ESE OF PRAIA IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 21.1 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion will likely continue through Sunday. A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
Sunday night through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Helene will
pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Satellite imagery indicates that Helene is becoming
better organized, and strengthening is forecast for the next couple
of days. Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday or
Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 17:32

WTNT43 KNHC 081444
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

The structure of Helene continues to improve, with convective
banding wrapping around almost completely around the center of the
cyclone in visible satellite imagery. Infrared imagery suggests
this convection is not very strong at the moment, though, and this
may be why recent scatterometer data indicates that the storm has
not strengthened since the last advisory. The initial intensity
remains 40 kt based on the scatterometer winds.

All indications are that Helene should strengthen through at least
72 h in a light vertical shear environment over sea surface
temperatures near 27C. This part of the intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and lies near the intensity
consensus. However, there are a couple of alternate forecast
scenarios. The first is that Helene could rapidly intensify and
become stronger than currently forecast. The second is that a
large plume of African dust and associated dry air that has spread
over the northern Cabo Verde Islands starts entraining into the
cyclone and inhibits intensification. The former alternative seems
more likely than the latter at this time, and if RI begins later
intensity forecasts will need to be increased. After 72 h, Helene
is expected to encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated
with a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic, which
should cause the system to weaken.

Helene's center appears to have again re-formed, this time a little
to the south. The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 265/11.
Other than a slight nudge to the south due to the initial position,
there is little change in the forecast track for Helene. The
cyclone should moved westward to west-northwestward for the next
3-4 days on the south side of the subtropical ridge, then turn
northwestward in response to the aforementioned trough.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 13.4N 20.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.6N 22.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 13.9N 24.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.6N 27.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 15.3N 30.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 17.0N 36.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 19.0N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 22.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 17:32

WTNT33 KNHC 081444
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...HELENE CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 20.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 20.6 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion will likely continue through Sunday. A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
Sunday night through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Helene will
pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days, and Helene is
expected to become a hurricane on Sunday or Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 17:32

WTNT23 KNHC 081442
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 20.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 20.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 20.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.6N 22.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.9N 24.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.6N 27.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.3N 30.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.0N 36.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 20.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-08 14:32

WTNT33 KNHC 081144
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...HELENE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 20.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 20.2 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
will likely continue through the weekend. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected early
next week. On the forecast track, Helene will pass very close to
the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next couple of
days, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-08 11:32

WTNT63 KNHC 080914
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
515 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and Brava.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown

2018-09-08 11:32

WTNT43 KNHC 080850
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Helene's structure appears to be quickly improving this morning.
The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a blend
of the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and the
UW-CIMSS SATCON. Several microwave passes overnight indicate that
the cyclone has become more vertically aligned, likely due to a
reformation of the center beneath the strongest convection. In
fact, a 0733 UTC SSMIS image shows the early development of a low-
to mid-level eye, which is often a precursor to intensification.

Nearly all of the intensity guidance seems to have picked up on the
improved structure of Helene, and the models show far more
intensification than before, especially through 48 h. Consequently,
a significant change has been made to the intensity forecast, which
now calls for Helene to become a hurricane on Sunday while it is
near the Cabo Verde islands. Once the cyclone passes the islands,
the environment is expected to remain favorable for intensification
for at least 72 h. By the end of the forecast period, all of the
guidance shows some weakening due primarily to increased shear
associated with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the
central Atlantic. Given the recent microwave imagery signature, low
shear, and warm SSTs, its possible that the current forecast is
still too conservative, especially for the first 36 h of the
forecast, and further adjustments could be required if it becomes
clear that Helene is intensifying at a faster rate than expected.

Smoothing through the possible reformation of the center, Helene
appears to be moving west with an initial motion around 275/10 kt.
Little change was required to the track forecast, which has been
nudged only slightly south for the first 48 h of the forecast, in
line with the latest track model consensus. A westward motion
should continue for the next couple of days, as Helene is steered
by a mid-level ridge to the north. By day 5, the aforementioned
trough over the central Atlantic should force Helene to turn toward
the northwest.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 13.7N 19.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 13.9N 21.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 14.1N 23.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.7N 26.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 15.4N 29.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 17.2N 35.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 19.0N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 22.0N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-08 11:32

WTNT33 KNHC 080850
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...HELENE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 19.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 19.6 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
will likely continue through the weekend. A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
early next week. On the forecast track, Helene will pass very
close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next
couple of days and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-08 11:32

WTNT23 KNHC 080850
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 19.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 19.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 18.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.9N 21.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.1N 23.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.7N 26.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.4N 29.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.2N 35.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 19.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-08 08:33

WTNT33 KNHC 080542
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
200 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 18.9W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC) was located near latitude 13.7 North,
longitude 18.9 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph
(20 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion with a
gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next 72
hours. On the forecast track, Helene will pass very close to the
southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days,
and Helene could become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).
mainly to the south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area tonight or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches across the southern
Cabo Verde Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown

2018-09-08 05:32

WTNT43 KNHC 080244
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

A very timely ASCAT pass indicated that the winds associated with
the depression have increased to 35 kt, and also that the center was
a little east of the location previously indicated. This is very
common in systems during the formative stage. Based on the ASCAT
data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene, the
eighth named storm of the season. The satellite presentation has
also improved during the past several hours, and now the cyclone has
large cyclonically curved convective bands to the south of the
center. The outflow is fair in all quadrants.

Helene will be moving over warm waters and within an environment
of light shear through the next 3 to 4 days, and most of the
guidance responds to that environment by gradually strengthening the
cyclone. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the intensity
consensus, and brings Helene to hurricane intensity in about 3 days.

Currently, Helene is embedded within a southwest monsoon-type flow,
and is moving toward the west at about 9 or 10 knots. However, as
the cyclone moves away from the African coast, it will become
steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge and should
then increase in forward speed. Most of the track models are in
extremely good agreement, at least for the next 3 days when the
confidence in the forecast is high. At the long range, a mid-level
trough is expected to develop over the central Atlantic, forcing the
cyclone to turn more to the northwest and even north later on. The
NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and basically
on top of the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.6N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 13.8N 19.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 14.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 14.8N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 15.4N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 17.0N 33.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 18.5N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 20.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-08 05:32

WTNT33 KNHC 080244
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 18.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM E OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite data indicate that the depression over the far eastern
Atlantic has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Helene. The
center of the tropical storm is a little to the east of
previously indicated position, and at 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 18.5 West. Helene is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed
is expected during the next 72 hours. On this track, Helene will be
passing very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands during
Saturday night and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days, and
Helene could become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).
mainly to the south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area Saturday night or on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches across the southern
Cabo Verde Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-08 05:32

WTNT23 KNHC 080243
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 18.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 18.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 18.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.8N 19.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.3N 22.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 25.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.4N 28.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.0N 33.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 18.5N 39.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 18.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-08 02:32

WTNT33 KNHC 072331
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 19.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 19.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
westward to west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected during the next 72 hours. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move near the southern Cabo
Verde Islands late Saturday night or on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next three days or so,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
later tonight or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area late Saturday night or on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches
across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-07 23:32

WTNT43 KNHC 072046
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located just west of the coast of Africa has
developed into a tropical depression. Conventional satellite
imagery shows a well-defined convective band has formed near the
center, and microwave satellite imagery has hinted at the formation
of an inner ring of convection. The initial intensity of 30 kt
and the central pressure of 1002 mb are based on surface
observations from ships and the west coast of Africa. The depression
currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is 275/9. During the next 3-4 days, the cyclone
should move generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward
speed on the south side of the subtropical ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. Near the end of the forecast period, a developing mid- to
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to weaken
the ridge and allow the cyclone to turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed. There is some spread in the guidance
late in the period, with the UKMET and the Canadian models showing
an earlier turn than the other models. The new forecast track,
which is similar to the previous track, is in best agreement with
the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

The depression is in an environment of light to moderate easterly
vertical shear and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C. This
should allow at least steady strengthening, and rapid strengthening
is possible based on the hints of the inner core in microwave
imagery. This portion of the intensity forecast has been increased
to the upper edge of the intensity guidance, with the cyclone
forecast to become a tropical storm in 12 h or less and a hurricane
between 48-72 h. After 72 h, the system should be over sea surface
temperatures near 26C and encountering southwesterly vertical shear
due to the aforementioned trough. This should cause at least a
gradual weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.2N 18.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.5N 19.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 13.9N 21.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 14.4N 24.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 14.9N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 16.5N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 18.0N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 20.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-07 23:32

WTNT33 KNHC 072046
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 18.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 18.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
westward to west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected during the next 72 hours. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move near the southern Cabo
Verde Islands late Saturday night or on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next three days or so, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area late Saturday night or on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches
across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-07 23:32

WTNT23 KNHC 072045
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 18.6W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 18.6W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 18.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.5N 19.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.9N 21.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.4N 24.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.9N 27.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.5N 33.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 18.0N 38.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 20.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 18.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN