Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for OLIVIA-18
in United States

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2018-09-14 06:31

WTPN31 PHNC 140400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 054
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 163.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 163.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.8N 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.1N 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.8N 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.8N 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
140400Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 164.4W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140000Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

2018-09-13 21:32

WTPN31 PHNC 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 053
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 19.0N 162.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 162.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.4N 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.5N 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.1N 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.3N 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
132200Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 163.4W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-12 05:34

WTPN31 PHNC 120400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 046A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 21.2N 153.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 153.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.3N 156.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.6N 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.1N 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.8N 164.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.0N 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.8N 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.9N 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 154.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MOVEMENT SPEED.//
NNNN

2018-09-09 03:32

WTPA45 PHFO 090302 RRA
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP172018
500 PM HST SAT SEP 08 2018

OLIVIA LOST ITS WELL-DEFINED CENTER FEATURE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW APPEARS AS A RATHER
MESSY ASYMMETRIC BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, SSMI AND GMI
OVERPASSES AT 2349 AND 2336 UTC, RESPECTIVELY, SHOWED AN EYEWALL
REMAINED, EXCEPT FOR A BREAK ON THE WEST SIDE, ALONG WITH A VERY
WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SHOWED SOME SPREAD, WITH 4.5 FROM PHFO AND UW-CIMSS ADT,
4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB, 3.5 FROM JTWC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS
LOWERED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, AND
CONSIDERING THE DEGRADATION SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. OLIVIA IS MOVING JUST NORTH
OF DUE WEST, TO THE SOUTH OF STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE WEST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. LITTLE CHANGE IS
ANTICIPITATED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO AS THIS RIDGING BUILDS
WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH OLIVIA. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST OF OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, SHUNTING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THIS FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER OF
OLIVIA OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER OLIVIA'S PASSAGE
THROUGH THE ISLANDS, AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD AND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL

2018-09-09 03:32

WTPA45 PHFO 090302
TCDCP5

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP172018
500 PM HST Sat Sep 08 2018

Olivia lost its well-defined center feature in conventional
satellite imagery late this afternoon and now appears as a rather
messy asymmetric blob of deep convection. However, SSMI and GMI
overpasses at 2349 and 2336 UTC, respectively, showed an eyewall
remained, except for a break on the west side, along with a very
well organized low level circulation. The satellite intensity
estimates showed some spread, with 4.5 from PHFO and UW-CIMSS ADT,
4.0 from TAFB and SAB, 3.5 from JTWC. The current intensity was
lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of these estimates, and
considering the degradation seen in the satellite imagery over the
last few hours.

The initial motion estimate is 280/14. Olivia is moving just north
of due west, to the south of strong deep layer ridging to the west
through north of the tropical cyclone. Little change is
anticipitated for the first 48 hours or so as this ridging builds
westward in tandem with Olivia. After 48 hours, the portion of the
ridge to the west of Olivia is forecast to strengthen, shunting the
tropical cyclone on a more west-southwest motion. The track
guidance remains fairly tightly clustered, and this forecast is very
similar to the previous forecast track, which brings the center of
Olivia over the main Hawaiian Islands between 72 and 96 hours. A
more westward motion is expected to resume after Olivia's passage
through the islands, as the upper ridge retreats westward and the
circulation center becomes increasingly steered by the lower level
trades.

Olivia is in a very weak shear environment, but moving over
marginal sea surface temperatures of 25.5C. The hurricane has
already traversed the coolest water it was going to encounter, but
SSTs stay sub-27C until Olivia gets close to the islands. This
should allow Olivia to only very slowly weaken or maintain intensity
through the next 24 to 48 hours. Shear should begin to gradually
increase over Olivia after 48 hours, leading to a slow weakening
trend, but likely not soon enough to prevent some significant
impacts to the main Hawaiian Islands.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is important to recognize that errors in both forecast track
and intensity, particularly at longer time ranges, can be large.
While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of the
worst impacts, all interests in Hawaii should continue to monitor
the progress of Olivia, and use this time to prepare for the
increasing liklihood of direct impacts from this system.

2. Regardless of the exact track and intensity that Olivia takes
as it approaches the islands, significant effects often do extend
far from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of
Hawaii can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and
rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 21.8N 140.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 22.0N 142.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 22.1N 145.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 22.1N 147.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 22.0N 149.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.2N 153.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 20.1N 158.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 19.5N 163.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-09-09 03:32

WTPA35 PHFO 090243 RRA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP172018
500 PM HST SAT SEP 08 2018

...OLIVIA WELL EAST OF HAWAII AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 140.8W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1100 MI...1765 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 140.8 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH SOME SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH MONDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, OLIVIA WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTERWARD.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).

2018-09-09 03:32

WTPA35 PHFO 090243
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olivia Advisory Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP172018
500 PM HST Sat Sep 08 2018

...OLIVIA WELL EAST OF HAWAII AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 140.8W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1100 MI...1765 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Olivia this
weekend and use this time to enact your hurricane action plan.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olivia was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 140.8 West. Olivia is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is expected to
continue with some slowing in forward speed through Monday. A turn
toward the west-southwest is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Olivia will be near the main Hawaiian Islands later Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, with gradual weakening expected afterward.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-09-09 03:32

WTPA25 PHFO 090240 RRA
TCMCP5

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP172018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 140.8W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 140.8W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 140.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 142.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.1N 145.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.1N 147.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.0N 149.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

2018-09-09 03:32

WTPA25 PHFO 090240
TCMCP5

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP172018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 140.8W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 140.8W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 140.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 142.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.1N 145.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.1N 147.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.0N 149.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.2N 153.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.1N 158.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 19.5N 163.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 140.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-09-08 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 082050 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OLIVIA HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AS EYEWALL CONVECTION STAYS MOSTLY
SOLID AROUND THE EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED, SO
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 75 KT. OLIVIA SHOULD STAY A
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT IS EXPERIENCING LIGHT
SHEAR, BALANCED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL BUT WARMING SSTS.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE, AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE
OLIVIA APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

OLIVIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE
HURRICANE BASICALLY DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER HAWAII SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA TO
LOSE SOME LATITUDE AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS CYCLE,
WITH THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTH, RESULTING
IN A SMALLER GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A
BIT NORTHWARD TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE TREND. A C-130 PLANE IS
CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND OLIVIA,
WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY AID LATER FORECASTS, WHICH WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM
THE EAST ON TUESDAY, AND PASS CLOSE TO OR OVER THE ISLANDS ON

2018-09-08 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 082050
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

The satellite presentation of Olivia has remained about the same
for the past several hours, as eyewall convection stays mostly
solid around the eye. Dvorak estimates are basically unchanged, so
the initial wind speed is kept at 75 kt. Olivia should stay a
hurricane for the next couple of days while it is experiencing light
shear, balanced by very dry air aloft and marginal but warming SSTs.
After the weekend, most of the guidance continue to indicate that
westerly shear should increase, and weakening is forecast while
Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands. No significant changes
were made to the intensity forecast.

Olivia is moving westward at 13 kt. There is no change to the
synoptic reasoning. A building subtropical ridge should steer the
hurricane basically due westward for the next couple of days.
Thereafter, a mid-level ridge over Hawaii should cause Olivia to
lose some latitude and move west-southwestward toward the main
Hawaiian Islands. The models are in better agreement on this cycle,
with the UKMET and GFS models trending more to the north, resulting
in a smaller guidance spread. The official forecast is shifted a
bit northward to match the guidance trend. A C-130 plane is
currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Olivia,
which should hopefully aid later forecasts, which will be issued by
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from
the east on Tuesday, and pass close to or over the Islands on
Wednesday. It is too soon to determine the exact location and
magnitude of any impacts, but interests in Hawaii should continue to
monitor the progress of Olivia, and use this time to enact your
hurricane action plan.

2. Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any
specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time
ranges. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt
anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well
away from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 21.7N 139.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 21.9N 141.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 22.0N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 22.0N 146.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 22.0N 148.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 21.4N 152.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 20.4N 156.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 19.5N 162.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-08 21:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 082049 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

...OLIVIA HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
..............NEXT ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 139.4W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1190 MI...1910 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 139.4 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).

2018-09-08 21:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 082049
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olivia Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

...OLIVIA HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
...NEXT ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 139.4W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1190 MI...1910 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Olivia this
weekend and use this time to enact your hurricane action plan.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olivia was located
near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 139.4 West. Olivia is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is
forecast to continue for the next couple of days, with a west-
southwestward turn anticipated by Tuesday. On the forecast track,
Olivia is forecast to be approaching the Hawaiian Islands on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP5, WMO
header WTPA35 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-08 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 082049 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 139.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 139.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 138.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.9N 141.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 146.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 148.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

2018-09-08 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 082049
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 139.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 139.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 138.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.9N 141.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 146.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 148.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 152.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 20.4N 156.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 19.5N 162.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP5...WMO
HEADER WTPA25 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-08 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 081602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 31.7N 68.1W 1015 11
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 115.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 15.7N 115.2W 1005 23
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 17.1N 116.2W 1003 25
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 17.7N 118.1W 1000 30
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 19.4N 119.0W 998 30
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 20.6N 120.5W 999 34
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 21.7N 122.6W 1000 31
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 22.3N 124.9W 1003 28
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 22.7N 127.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 23.1N 129.8W 1008 24
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 23.4N 132.4W 1009 24
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 23.6N 134.5W 1010 24
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 23.9N 136.1W 1010 26
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 54.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.3N 54.0W 992 51
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 24.2N 54.9W 993 44
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 55.8W 991 54
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 24.5N 57.2W 987 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.7N 59.3W 979 66
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 25.2N 61.5W 975 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 26.1N 64.7W 973 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 27.3N 68.3W 972 69
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 28.3N 71.5W 965 77
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 29.9N 74.1W 941 90
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 31.6N 76.2W 936 89
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 32.7N 77.8W 936 90
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 33.5N 78.7W 940 85

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 20.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 13.4N 20.3W 999 37
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 13.4N 22.1W 994 45
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 13.6N 24.6W 987 51
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 14.3N 27.4W 984 54
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 14.9N 30.5W 980 56
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 15.7N 33.3W 978 61
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 16.6N 35.2W 976 64
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 18.1N 36.4W 970 68
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 19.7N 38.0W 971 69
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 21.7N 39.0W 975 68
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 23.3N 40.1W 991 47
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 24.7N 40.8W 997 47
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 25.5N 40.8W 1000 36

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 35.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 14.4N 35.8W 1007 25
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 14.4N 37.0W 1005 28
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 14.5N 38.7W 1003 31
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 14.2N 41.0W 1000 36
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 14.1N 43.4W 1000 39
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 13.8N 46.2W 996 43
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 13.3N 48.9W 994 55
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 13.1N 50.8W 990 58
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 13.4N 52.5W 987 60
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 14.1N 53.9W 982 71
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 14.8N 55.4W 982 65
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 15.8N 56.9W 980 66
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 16.8N 58.7W 977 64

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 154.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 26.1N 154.0W 995 51
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 27.5N 154.3W 999 48
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 28.4N 154.0W 999 44
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 30.1N 153.0W 996 49
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 32.4N 152.2W 986 60
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 33.8N 152.6W 997 48
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 34.2N 154.0W 1008 36
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 34.8N 155.8W 1014 30
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 137.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 0 21.4N 137.4W 976 65
0000UTC 09.09.2018 12 21.7N 140.1W 984 54
1200UTC 09.09.2018 24 21.8N 142.5W 987 47
0000UTC 10.09.2018 36 22.2N 144.9W 989 53
1200UTC 10.09.2018 48 22.5N 147.1W 990 52
0000UTC 11.09.2018 60 22.2N 149.0W 996 47
1200UTC 11.09.2018 72 21.5N 151.2W 1002 38
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 21.0N 153.5W 1004 32
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 20.6N 155.4W 1006 35
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 19.7N 158.7W 1007 30
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 19.5N 161.3W 1007 29
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 18.9N 163.6W 1007 27
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 18.8N 165.7W 1007 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.8N 20.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2018 84 13.8N 20.7W 1009 21
1200UTC 12.09.2018 96 14.1N 22.7W 1008 26
0000UTC 13.09.2018 108 13.8N 25.1W 1008 26
1200UTC 13.09.2018 120 14.2N 27.6W 1007 27
0000UTC 14.09.2018 132 15.0N 29.5W 1008 23
1200UTC 14.09.2018 144 16.0N 31.0W 1008 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081602

2018-09-08 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 081602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2018 31.7N 68.1W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 115.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2018 15.7N 115.2W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2018 17.1N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 17.7N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 19.4N 119.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 20.6N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 21.7N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 22.3N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 22.7N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 23.1N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 23.4N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.6N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 23.9N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 54.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.3N 54.0W MODERATE
00UTC 09.09.2018 24.2N 54.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 24.2N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 24.5N 57.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 24.7N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2018 25.2N 61.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 26.1N 64.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 27.3N 68.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 28.3N 71.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 29.9N 74.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 31.6N 76.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 32.7N 77.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 33.5N 78.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 20.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2018 13.4N 20.3W MODERATE
00UTC 09.09.2018 13.4N 22.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2018 13.6N 24.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 14.3N 27.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 14.9N 30.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 15.7N 33.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 16.6N 35.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 18.1N 36.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 19.7N 38.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 21.7N 39.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 23.3N 40.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 24.7N 40.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2018 25.5N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 35.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2018 14.4N 35.8W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2018 14.4N 37.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 14.5N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 14.2N 41.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 14.1N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 13.8N 46.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 13.3N 48.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 13.1N 50.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 13.4N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 14.1N 53.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 14.8N 55.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 15.8N 56.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 16.8N 58.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 154.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2018 26.1N 154.0W MODERATE
00UTC 09.09.2018 27.5N 154.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 28.4N 154.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 30.1N 153.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 32.4N 152.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2018 33.8N 152.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 34.2N 154.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 34.8N 155.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 137.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2018 21.4N 137.4W STRONG
00UTC 09.09.2018 21.7N 140.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2018 21.8N 142.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 22.2N 144.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 22.5N 147.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 22.2N 149.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.5N 151.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 21.0N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 20.6N 155.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 19.7N 158.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 19.5N 161.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 18.9N 163.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 18.8N 165.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.8N 20.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2018 13.8N 20.7W WEAK
12UTC 12.09.2018 14.1N 22.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 13.8N 25.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 14.2N 27.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 15.0N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2018 16.0N 31.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081602

2018-09-08 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 081459 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY IN THE TEXT FROM 70 TO 75 KT.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OLIVIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS WARMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
WITH SOME BREAKS NOTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A BLEND OF
THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVES A VALUE OF 75 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO STAY A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING LIGHT SHEAR,
BALANCED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL BUT WARMING SSTS.
WHILE THE FORECAST IS FLAT-LINED THROUGH 48 HOURS, DON'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY FLUCTUATES UPWARD AT TIMES, AS
MANY EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES HAVE DONE SO THIS SEASON WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER THE WEEKEND, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE, WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE WEAKENING WHILE OLIVIA APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.

OLIVIA HAS TURNED WESTWARD AND IS MOVING 275/13. A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BASICALLY DUE WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
HAWAII WILL IMPART SOME NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON OLIVIA, WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THERE ISN'T GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST IT
WILL TURN, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FORECAST DEPTH OF OLIVIA. THE

2018-09-08 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 081459 CCA
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 32...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

Corrected initial intensity in the text from 70 to 75 kt.

Satellite images indicate that Olivia continues to slowly weaken.
The eyewall convection has warmed during the past several hours,
with some breaks noted in the northwestern quadrant. A blend of
the various intensity estimates gives a value of 75 kt for this
advisory. Olivia is forecast to stay a hurricane for the next
couple of days while the system is experiencing light shear,
balanced by very dry air aloft and marginal but warming SSTs.
While the forecast is flat-lined through 48 hours, don't be
surprised if the system's intensity fluctuates upward at times, as
many eastern Pacific cyclones have done so this season within a
marginal environment. After the weekend, most of the guidance
indicates that westerly shear should increase, which will likely
cause weakening while Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The
new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one
and is close to the consensus.

Olivia has turned westward and is moving 275/13. A building
subtropical ridge should steer the hurricane basically due westward
for the next couple of days, and the model guidance is in good
agreement during this time. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge over
Hawaii will impart some northerly steering flow on Olivia, which
should cause the cyclone to move west-southwestward toward the
main Hawaiian Islands. There isn't great agreement on how fast it
will turn, however, due to the forecast depth of Olivia. The
guidance generally indicates a stronger system will turn more
southwestward, like the GFS or UKMET solutions, while a weaker
system would have less of a turn, like the ECMWF or HWRF solutions.
The model consensus has barely budged since the previous advisory,
so little change has been made. Since the track seems to be
dependent on the intensity at long range, this isn't a particularly
confident forecast.


KEY MESSAGES

1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from
the east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location and magnitude of any impacts. Interests in Hawaii should
monitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to
enact your hurricane action plan.

2. Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any
specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time
ranges. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt
anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well
away from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 21.4N 138.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 21.6N 140.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.7N 142.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.7N 145.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 21.2N 151.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 20.2N 155.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 19.0N 160.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-08 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 081455 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OLIVIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS WARMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
WITH SOME BREAKS NOTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A BLEND OF
THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVES A VALUE OF 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO STAY A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING LIGHT SHEAR,
BALANCED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL BUT WARMING SSTS.
WHILE THE FORECAST IS FLAT-LINED THROUGH 48 HOURS, DON'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY FLUCTUATES UPWARD AT TIMES, AS
MANY EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES HAVE DONE SO THIS SEASON WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER THE WEEKEND, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE, WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE WEAKENING WHILE OLIVIA APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.

OLIVIA HAS TURNED WESTWARD AND IS MOVING 275/13. A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BASICALLY DUE WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
HAWAII WILL IMPART SOME NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON OLIVIA, WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THERE ISN'T GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST IT
WILL TURN, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FORECAST DEPTH OF OLIVIA. THE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TURN MORE

2018-09-08 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 081455
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

Satellite images indicate that Olivia continues to slowly weaken.
The eyewall convection has warmed during the past several hours,
with some breaks noted in the northwestern quadrant. A blend of
the various intensity estimates gives a value of 70 kt for this
advisory. Olivia is forecast to stay a hurricane for the next
couple of days while the system is experiencing light shear,
balanced by very dry air aloft and marginal but warming SSTs.
While the forecast is flat-lined through 48 hours, don't be
surprised if the system's intensity fluctuates upward at times, as
many eastern Pacific cyclones have done so this season within a
marginal environment. After the weekend, most of the guidance
indicates that westerly shear should increase, which will likely
cause weakening while Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The
new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one
and is close to the consensus.

Olivia has turned westward and is moving 275/13. A building
subtropical ridge should steer the hurricane basically due westward
for the next couple of days, and the model guidance is in good
agreement during this time. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge over
Hawaii will impart some northerly steering flow on Olivia, which
should cause the cyclone to move west-southwestward toward the
main Hawaiian Islands. There isn't great agreement on how fast it
will turn, however, due to the forecast depth of Olivia. The
guidance generally indicates a stronger system will turn more
southwestward, like the GFS or UKMET solutions, while a weaker
system would have less of a turn, like the ECMWF or HWRF solutions.
The model consensus has barely budged since the previous advisory,
so little change has been made. Since the track seems to be
dependent on the intensity at long range, this isn't a particularly
confident forecast.


KEY MESSAGES

1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from
the east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location and magnitude of any impacts. Interests in Hawaii should
monitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to
enact your hurricane action plan.

2. Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any
specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time
ranges. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt
anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well
away from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 21.4N 138.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 21.6N 140.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.7N 142.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.7N 145.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 21.2N 151.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 20.2N 155.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 19.0N 160.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-08 15:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 081454 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

...OLIVIA TURNS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 138.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 138.0 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
OLIVIA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, AND COULD BE APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).

2018-09-08 15:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 081454
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olivia Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

...OLIVIA TURNS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 138.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Olivia this
weekend and use this time to enact your hurricane action plan.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olivia was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 138.0 West. Olivia is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is
forecast to continue for the next couple of days, with a west-
southwestward turn anticipated by Tuesday. On the forecast track,
Olivia will move into the Central Pacific basin in the next 12
hours, and could be approaching the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Olivia is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-08 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 081454 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 138.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 138.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 137.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.6N 140.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 142.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 145.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-09-08 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 081454
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 138.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 138.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 137.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.6N 140.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 142.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 145.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.2N 151.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 20.2N 155.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 19.0N 160.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 138.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-08 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 080852 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OLIVIA HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURROUNDING RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WARMING
AND THE EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED
AND A BLEND OF CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND
ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
OF 80 KT. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW OVER OLIVIA, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25-26C, AND INTO A DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SLOW OR HALT THE WEAKENING PROCESS, AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY DAY 3 IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
BETWEEN THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS
AID.

OLIVIA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/13 KT. A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC SHOULD STEER OLIVIA GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE TAKES OLIVIA
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY
UNANIMOUS IN TAKING OLIVIA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, THERE IS LARGE

2018-09-08 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 080852
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

The satellite presentation of Olivia has continued to degrade
overnight with the surrounding ring of deep convection warming
and the eye becoming less distinct. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased
and a blend of current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB, and
ADT and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS yields an initial wind speed
of 80 kt. Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain
low over Olivia, the hurricane will be moving over marginal sea
surface temperatures of 25-26C, and into a dry mid-level
environment. These factors are expected to cause gradual weakening
over the next 24 hours. After that time, slightly warmer SSTs along
the forecast track should slow or halt the weakening process, and
little change in strength is expected between 24 and 72 hours.
Increasing southwesterly shear by day 3 is likely to result in
additional weakening later in the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is
between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN consensus
aid.

Olivia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A strong
deep-layer ridge that is building westward across the central
Pacific should steer Olivia generally westward over the next 2-3
days. After that time, most of the track guidance takes Olivia
west-southwestward as it comes under the influence of the
northeasterly trade wind flow. Although the track models are fairly
unanimous in taking Olivia west-southwestward, there is large
cross-track spread in the guidance at 72 hours and beyond. The HWRF
and ECMWF are along the northern side of the guidance envelope while
the GFS and UKMET bracket the southern side. Given the large amount
of spread, the official forecast is again near the TVCN and HFIP
consensus models at 72-120 h. On the forecast track, Olivia is
expected to cross into the central Pacific basin later today and
approach the Hawaiian Islands early next week.


KEY MESSAGES

1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from
the east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location and magnitude of any impacts. Interests in Hawaii should
monitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to
enact your hurricane action plan.

2. Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any
specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time
ranges. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt
anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well
away from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.2N 136.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.5N 138.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.7N 141.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 21.8N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 146.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 21.5N 150.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 19.2N 159.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-08 09:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 080851 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018

...OLIVIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 136.6W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A WESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, OLIVIA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN IN THE NEXT 24 H.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT
OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB (28.94 INCHES).

2018-09-08 09:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 080851
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olivia Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

...OLIVIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 136.6W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Olivia this
weekend and use this time to enact your hurricane action plan.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olivia was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 136.6 West. Olivia is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion
is forecast to begin today and should continue over the next few
days. On the forecast track, Olivia will move into the Central
Pacific basin in the next 24 h.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is predicted over the next day or so, but
Olivia is forecast to remain a hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-08 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 080851 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 136.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 136.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 135.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 138.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 141.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.8N 144.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 146.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

2018-09-08 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 080851
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 136.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 136.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 135.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 138.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 141.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.8N 144.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 146.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 19.2N 159.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-08 04:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 080254 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

...OLIVIA GRADUALLY WEAKENING...
...........................EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN
ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 135.2W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

2018-09-08 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 080404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 72.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 29.8N 72.8W 1016 13
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 113.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 15.1N 113.3W 1005 21
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 15.9N 114.9W 1004 24
0000UTC 09.09.2018 24 16.7N 117.3W 1002 25
1200UTC 09.09.2018 36 17.5N 118.1W 999 31
0000UTC 10.09.2018 48 18.8N 119.7W 999 30
1200UTC 10.09.2018 60 19.9N 121.1W 1000 30
0000UTC 11.09.2018 72 20.8N 122.8W 1001 30
1200UTC 11.09.2018 84 21.7N 125.1W 1003 27
0000UTC 12.09.2018 96 22.2N 127.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 23.0N 130.2W 1008 24
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 23.6N 132.7W 1008 24
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 24.1N 134.8W 1009 22
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 24.7N 135.6W 1009 24

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 18.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 13.8N 18.3W 1003 34
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 14.0N 21.2W 1000 38
0000UTC 09.09.2018 24 13.8N 22.7W 995 39
1200UTC 09.09.2018 36 14.2N 25.0W 990 45
0000UTC 10.09.2018 48 15.1N 27.9W 987 50
1200UTC 10.09.2018 60 15.8N 30.9W 986 51
0000UTC 11.09.2018 72 16.7N 33.8W 986 52
1200UTC 11.09.2018 84 17.8N 35.9W 984 64
0000UTC 12.09.2018 96 19.7N 37.1W 975 70
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 21.9N 38.3W 981 65
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 24.5N 38.9W 992 53
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 27.5N 39.6W 989 58
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 30.9N 39.0W 971 66

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 52.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.7N 52.5W 990 66
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 24.4N 53.7W 989 59
0000UTC 09.09.2018 24 24.2N 54.6W 989 51
1200UTC 09.09.2018 36 24.2N 55.6W 988 56
0000UTC 10.09.2018 48 24.5N 57.0W 983 58
1200UTC 10.09.2018 60 25.0N 59.1W 978 62
0000UTC 11.09.2018 72 25.8N 61.9W 972 67
1200UTC 11.09.2018 84 26.1N 65.6W 966 69
0000UTC 12.09.2018 96 26.6N 68.6W 962 80
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 27.5N 71.5W 959 81
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 28.9N 74.3W 953 87
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 30.3N 77.0W 946 87
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 31.4N 79.2W 939 87

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 34.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 13.8N 34.8W 1008 21
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 14.2N 35.6W 1007 23
0000UTC 09.09.2018 24 14.1N 36.4W 1007 26
1200UTC 09.09.2018 36 14.1N 38.2W 1006 26
0000UTC 10.09.2018 48 14.2N 40.6W 1004 32
1200UTC 10.09.2018 60 13.6N 43.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 11.09.2018 72 13.4N 45.5W 999 39
1200UTC 11.09.2018 84 12.9N 48.3W 996 42
0000UTC 12.09.2018 96 12.5N 50.1W 988 54
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 12.8N 51.6W 987 62
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 13.8N 52.8W 984 64
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 15.3N 53.7W 980 63
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 17.1N 54.8W 978 64

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 153.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 24.8N 153.0W 991 56
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 26.1N 154.5W 1000 43
0000UTC 09.09.2018 24 27.8N 154.7W 1001 45
1200UTC 09.09.2018 36 29.1N 154.6W 999 49
0000UTC 10.09.2018 48 31.1N 153.4W 985 60
1200UTC 10.09.2018 60 33.3N 152.9W 983 66
0000UTC 11.09.2018 72 34.2N 152.8W 996 49
1200UTC 11.09.2018 84 34.4N 153.7W 1008 34
0000UTC 12.09.2018 96 35.0N 154.7W 1013 26
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 35.3N 155.8W 1017 22
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 134.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 0 20.7N 134.6W 984 57
1200UTC 08.09.2018 12 21.4N 137.3W 991 50
0000UTC 09.09.2018 24 21.8N 140.1W 993 48
1200UTC 09.09.2018 36 21.6N 142.9W 994 43
0000UTC 10.09.2018 48 21.4N 145.2W 994 43
1200UTC 10.09.2018 60 21.1N 147.1W 995 45
0000UTC 11.09.2018 72 20.4N 148.9W 997 47
1200UTC 11.09.2018 84 19.4N 151.0W 1001 37
0000UTC 12.09.2018 96 18.4N 153.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 17.3N 154.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 16.9N 156.3W 1003 33
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 17.0N 157.8W 1003 40
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 17.6N 158.9W 1003 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.8N 22.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 13.6N 23.6W 1009 23
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 14.2N 25.7W 1010 21
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 14.7N 27.8W 1010 23
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 15.2N 29.6W 1010 20

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 36.6N 38.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 108 36.6N 38.6W 1014 34
0000UTC 13.09.2018 120 36.9N 39.8W 1013 28
1200UTC 13.09.2018 132 36.9N 40.5W 1012 29
0000UTC 14.09.2018 144 37.5N 40.3W 1011 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080404

2018-09-08 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 080404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 72.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2018 29.8N 72.8W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 113.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2018 15.1N 113.3W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2018 15.9N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 16.7N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 17.5N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 18.8N 119.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 19.9N 121.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 20.8N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.7N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 23.0N 130.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 23.6N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 24.1N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 24.7N 135.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 18.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2018 13.8N 18.3W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2018 14.0N 21.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 13.8N 22.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2018 14.2N 25.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 15.1N 27.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 15.8N 30.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 16.7N 33.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 17.8N 35.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 19.7N 37.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 21.9N 38.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 24.5N 38.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 27.5N 39.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 30.9N 39.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 52.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.7N 52.5W MODERATE
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.4N 53.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 24.2N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 24.2N 55.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 24.5N 57.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2018 25.0N 59.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2018 25.8N 61.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 26.1N 65.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 26.6N 68.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 27.5N 71.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 28.9N 74.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 30.3N 77.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2018 31.4N 79.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 34.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2018 13.8N 34.8W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2018 14.2N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 14.1N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 14.1N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 14.2N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 13.6N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 13.4N 45.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 12.9N 48.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 12.5N 50.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 12.8N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 13.8N 52.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 15.3N 53.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 17.1N 54.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 153.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.8N 153.0W MODERATE
12UTC 08.09.2018 26.1N 154.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 27.8N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 29.1N 154.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 31.1N 153.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.09.2018 33.3N 152.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 34.2N 152.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 34.4N 153.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 35.0N 154.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 35.3N 155.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 134.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2018 20.7N 134.6W MODERATE
12UTC 08.09.2018 21.4N 137.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 21.8N 140.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 21.6N 142.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 21.4N 145.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 21.1N 147.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 20.4N 148.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 19.4N 151.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 18.4N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 17.3N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 16.9N 156.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 17.0N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 17.6N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.8N 22.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2018 13.6N 23.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 14.2N 25.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 14.7N 27.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 15.2N 29.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 36.6N 38.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2018 36.6N 38.6W WEAK
00UTC 13.09.2018 36.9N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 36.9N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2018 37.5N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080404

2018-09-08 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 080256 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OLIVIA HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS EVENING
WITH WARMING OF THE INNER CORE, AND A DECREASING EYE TEMPERATURE. A
COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND AN
EARLIER SATCON ANALYSIS, SUPPORT DECREASING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
TO 85 KT. OLIVIA STILL HAS AN ANNULAR APPEARANCE WITH THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONSISTING OF AN INNER CORE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDS.

CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS
OLIVIA MOVES OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 25C AND
INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRIER, MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
AFTERWARD, OLIVIA WILL MOVE BACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND
REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, SO LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 3. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KT SHOULD
INDUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

OLIVIA'S MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/13 KT,
AND IS BEING STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR 72 HOURS OR SO BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST, OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BEYOND DAY 3 TO CONFORM MORE WITH THE NOAA-HCCA AND TVCN CONSENSUS
MODELS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE

2018-09-08 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 080256
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018

The cloud pattern of Olivia has continued to degrade this evening
with warming of the inner core, and a decreasing eye temperature. A
compromise of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, and an
earlier SATCON analysis, support decreasing the initial wind speed
to 85 kt. Olivia still has an annular appearance with the cloud
pattern consisting of an inner core with little to no outer bands.

Continued slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days as
Olivia moves over marginal sea surface temperatures of about 25C and
into an increasingly drier, more stable thermodynamic environment.
Afterward, Olivia will move back over slightly warmer waters and
remain in a low shear environment, so little change in strength is
expected through day 3. Through the remaining portion of the
forecast, southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt should
induce more significant weakening.

Olivia's motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt,
and is being steered by a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge that
extends from Mexico and the southwestern U.S. westward into the
central Pacific. The cyclone is forecast to move west-northwestward
for 72 hours or so before turning to the west, or even
west-southwest, as the aforementioned ridge builds to the north. The
official forecast has been adjusted south of the previous forecast
beyond day 3 to conform more with the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN consensus
models. On the forecast track, Olivia is expected to cross into the
central Pacific basin by late Saturday and approach the Hawaiian
Islands in 4 to 5 days.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from
the east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location and magnitude of any impacts. Interests in Hawaii should
monitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to
enact your hurricane action plan.

2. Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any
specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time
ranges. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt
anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well
away from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.9N 135.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.3N 137.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 21.6N 140.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 21.8N 142.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 21.8N 145.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 21.7N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 20.9N 152.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 19.5N 157.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Birchard

2018-09-08 03:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 080254
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

...OLIVIA GRADUALLY WEAKENING...
...........EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 135.2W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..........
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-08 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 080254 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 135.2W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 135.2W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 134.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 137.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.6N 140.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.8N 142.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-09-08 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 080254
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLIVIA THIS
WEEKEND AND USE THIS TIME TO ENACT YOUR HURRICANE ACTION PLAN.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 135.2W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 135.2W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 134.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 137.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.6N 140.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.8N 142.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.7N 149.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 20.9N 152.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 19.5N 157.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 135.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-08 00:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 072041 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

...OLIVIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...
...................................................................EXP
..EXPE
.EXPEC
EXPECT
XPECTE
PECTED
TO
CROSS
INTO
THE
CENTRAL
PACIFIC
BASIN
ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 133.9W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1550 MI...2490 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 133.9 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB (28.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

2018-09-07 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 072042 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

OLIVIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE, BUT IT
STILL COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE EYE. A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED TO 95 KT. OLIVIA STILL HAS AN ANNULAR APPEARANCE WITH THE
CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTING OF AN INNER CORE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER
BANDS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. OLIVIA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE
TURNING TO THE WEST, OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST, AS RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS AIDS. BASED ON THIS FORECAST, OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

ALTHOUGH OLIVIA REMAINS IN LOW WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS, THE CYCLONE
IS OVER FAIRLY COOL 25-26 DEG C WATERS. THESE MARGINAL SSTS AND AN
INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE THE SLOW
WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, ANNULAR HURRICANES LIKE
OLIVIA OFTEN WEAKEN SLOWER THAN NORMAL IN THESE CONDITIONS, SO IT
IS POSSIBLE OLIVIA WON'T WEAKEN AS FAST AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 20.5N 133.9W 95 KT 110 MPH

2018-09-07 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 072042
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018

Olivia continues to slowly weaken. Deep convection in the eyewall
has been gradually decreasing in intensity and coverage, but it
still completely surrounds the eye. A blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates supports lowering the initial wind
speed to 95 kt. Olivia still has an annular appearance with the
cloud pattern consisting of an inner core with little to no outer
bands.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. There
has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Olivia is
forecast to move west-northwestward for another day or so before
turning to the west, or even west-southwest, as ridging builds to
the north of the system. The NHC track forecast remains near the
middle of the guidance envelope, and in best agreement with the
consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Olivia is expected to cross
into the central Pacific basin by late Saturday and approach the
Hawaiian Islands in 4 to 5 days.

Although Olivia remains in low wind shear conditions, the cyclone
is over fairly cool 25-26 deg C waters. These marginal SSTs and an
increasingly drier and more stable air mass should cause the slow
weakening trend to continue through the forecast period. However,
as mentioned in previous discussions, annular hurricanes like
Olivia often weaken slower than normal in these conditions, so it
is possible Olivia won't weaken as fast as some of the guidance
suggests.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 20.5N 133.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.1N 135.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.6N 138.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 21.8N 141.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 22.0N 143.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 148.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 21.6N 151.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 20.5N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-07 21:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 072041
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

...OLIVIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...
...............EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 133.9W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1550 MI...2490 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 133.9 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB (28.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..............
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-07 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 072041 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 133.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 133.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 133.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.1N 135.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 138.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.8N 141.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

2018-09-07 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 072041
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 133.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 133.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 133.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.1N 135.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 138.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.8N 141.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.6N 151.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 20.5N 156.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 133.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-07 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 071603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 111.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 0 14.8N 111.6W 1007 19
0000UTC 08.09.2018 12 15.1N 113.8W 1005 23
1200UTC 08.09.2018 24 15.8N 115.6W 1004 24
0000UTC 09.09.2018 36 16.0N 117.9W 1000 29
1200UTC 09.09.2018 48 17.0N 119.3W 997 33
0000UTC 10.09.2018 60 18.6N 120.3W 997 32
1200UTC 10.09.2018 72 19.5N 122.5W 998 35
0000UTC 11.09.2018 84 20.5N 124.7W 996 38
1200UTC 11.09.2018 96 21.3N 128.0W 996 39
0000UTC 12.09.2018 108 21.4N 131.2W 1000 37
1200UTC 12.09.2018 120 21.4N 134.1W 1001 32
0000UTC 13.09.2018 132 21.3N 135.7W 1002 31
1200UTC 13.09.2018 144 21.7N 137.1W 1002 28

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 34.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 0 13.6N 34.8W 1008 24
0000UTC 08.09.2018 12 13.7N 34.9W 1007 22
1200UTC 08.09.2018 24 14.3N 35.2W 1007 24
0000UTC 09.09.2018 36 14.1N 36.4W 1007 28
1200UTC 09.09.2018 48 14.0N 37.7W 1005 27
0000UTC 10.09.2018 60 14.1N 39.9W 1003 32
1200UTC 10.09.2018 72 13.9N 42.2W 1002 35
0000UTC 11.09.2018 84 14.1N 44.3W 998 41
1200UTC 11.09.2018 96 14.2N 46.6W 996 40
0000UTC 12.09.2018 108 14.6N 48.8W 993 44
1200UTC 12.09.2018 120 14.8N 50.9W 991 50
0000UTC 13.09.2018 132 15.6N 52.5W 985 66
1200UTC 13.09.2018 144 16.7N 54.4W 975 67

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 17.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 0 13.1N 17.6W 1002 41
0000UTC 08.09.2018 12 14.2N 19.0W 1002 33
1200UTC 08.09.2018 24 14.1N 21.4W 997 42
0000UTC 09.09.2018 36 14.5N 23.0W 996 39
1200UTC 09.09.2018 48 15.1N 25.3W 991 44
0000UTC 10.09.2018 60 16.4N 28.2W 991 46
1200UTC 10.09.2018 72 17.7N 31.1W 993 47
0000UTC 11.09.2018 84 19.1N 33.0W 991 54
1200UTC 11.09.2018 96 20.9N 34.1W 986 60
0000UTC 12.09.2018 108 22.5N 34.6W 994 51
1200UTC 12.09.2018 120 24.5N 34.7W 999 44
0000UTC 13.09.2018 132 27.3N 34.2W 1000 44
1200UTC 13.09.2018 144 31.3N 33.5W 1002 45

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 51.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 0 24.9N 51.4W 993 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 12 24.6N 52.1W 995 60
1200UTC 08.09.2018 24 24.5N 53.4W 992 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 36 24.4N 54.4W 991 53
1200UTC 09.09.2018 48 24.4N 55.6W 988 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 60 24.6N 57.2W 984 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 72 24.8N 59.6W 982 55
0000UTC 11.09.2018 84 24.7N 62.3W 973 66
1200UTC 11.09.2018 96 25.1N 65.2W 971 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 108 25.8N 68.3W 971 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 120 27.2N 71.5W 959 79
0000UTC 13.09.2018 132 28.6N 74.3W 950 84
1200UTC 13.09.2018 144 30.4N 76.8W 944 89

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 152.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 0 22.8N 152.3W 989 56
0000UTC 08.09.2018 12 24.2N 153.7W 997 44
1200UTC 08.09.2018 24 25.6N 155.0W 1003 40
0000UTC 09.09.2018 36 27.2N 155.7W 1003 37
1200UTC 09.09.2018 48 28.3N 155.8W 1003 36
0000UTC 10.09.2018 60 29.7N 155.1W 1004 35
1200UTC 10.09.2018 72 31.1N 155.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 11.09.2018 84 32.3N 155.1W 1011 27
1200UTC 11.09.2018 96 33.3N 156.1W 1015 23
0000UTC 12.09.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 131.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 0 19.7N 131.8W 982 58
0000UTC 08.09.2018 12 20.7N 134.6W 985 55
1200UTC 08.09.2018 24 21.3N 137.3W 990 51
0000UTC 09.09.2018 36 21.5N 140.1W 992 49
1200UTC 09.09.2018 48 21.2N 142.9W 995 41
0000UTC 10.09.2018 60 21.1N 145.3W 995 46
1200UTC 10.09.2018 72 20.8N 147.4W 994 45
0000UTC 11.09.2018 84 20.3N 149.3W 995 49
1200UTC 11.09.2018 96 19.1N 151.1W 996 47
0000UTC 12.09.2018 108 17.8N 152.6W 997 45
1200UTC 12.09.2018 120 16.7N 154.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 13.09.2018 132 16.1N 156.1W 1001 36
1200UTC 13.09.2018 144 16.1N 157.5W 1001 43


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071603

2018-09-07 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 071603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 111.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 14.8N 111.6W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2018 15.1N 113.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 15.8N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 16.0N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 17.0N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 18.6N 120.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 19.5N 122.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 20.5N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.3N 128.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 21.4N 131.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 21.4N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 21.3N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 21.7N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 34.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 13.6N 34.8W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2018 13.7N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 14.3N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 14.1N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 14.0N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 14.1N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 13.9N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 14.1N 44.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 46.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 14.6N 48.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 14.8N 50.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 15.6N 52.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 16.7N 54.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 17.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 13.1N 17.6W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2018 14.2N 19.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 14.1N 21.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 14.5N 23.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 15.1N 25.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 16.4N 28.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 17.7N 31.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 19.1N 33.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 20.9N 34.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 22.5N 34.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 24.5N 34.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 27.3N 34.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 31.3N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 51.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 24.9N 51.4W MODERATE
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.6N 52.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.5N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 24.4N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 24.4N 55.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 24.6N 57.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 24.8N 59.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 24.7N 62.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 25.1N 65.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 25.8N 68.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 27.2N 71.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2018 28.6N 74.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2018 30.4N 76.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 152.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 22.8N 152.3W MODERATE
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.2N 153.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 25.6N 155.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 27.2N 155.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 28.3N 155.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 29.7N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 31.1N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 32.3N 155.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 33.3N 156.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 131.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 19.7N 131.8W MODERATE
00UTC 08.09.2018 20.7N 134.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 21.3N 137.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 21.5N 140.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 21.2N 142.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 21.1N 145.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 20.8N 147.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 20.3N 149.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 19.1N 151.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 17.8N 152.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 16.7N 154.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 16.1N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2018 16.1N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071603

2018-09-07 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 071433 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

ALTHOUGH OLIVIA IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SOME OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE EYE IS NOT QUITE AS
DISTINCT AS IT WAS OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED THIS CYCLE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 100 KT USING THAT DATA. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
OLIVIA IS AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A WELL ORGANIZED INNER CORE, BUT
WITH A LACK OF OUTER BANDING FEATURES.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY APPEARS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. OLIVIA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT REMAINS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS. BASED ON
THIS FORECAST, OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY.

OLIVIA IS OVER COOL 25-26 DEG C WATERS, AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER
THESE WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE MARGINAL SSTS
COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS,
RESEARCH HAS PROVEN THAT ANNULAR HURRICANES LIKE OLIVIA WEAKEN
SLOWER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPES OF CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN THE

2018-09-07 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 071433
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018

Although Olivia is still a major hurricane, the cloud tops have
warmed some over the past several hours and the eye is not quite as
distinct as it was overnight. All of the satellite intensity
estimates have decreased this cycle, and the initial intensity is
lowered to 100 kt using that data. Satellite data indicate that
Olivia is an annular hurricane with a well organized inner core, but
with a lack of outer banding features.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. The track
forecast philosophy appears fairly straightforward. Olivia is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days as it remains steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. By
the end of the forecast period, a turn to the west-southwest is
expected as ridging builds to the northwest of the cyclone.
The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope, in best agreement with the consensus aids. Based on
this forecast, Olivia is expected to cross into the central Pacific
basin by late Saturday.

Olivia is over cool 25-26 deg C waters, and it will remain over
these waters during the next several days. These marginal SSTs
combined with drier air should cause a slow weakening trend through
the forecast period. However, as mentioned in previous discussions,
research has proven that annular hurricanes like Olivia weaken
slower than normal in these types of conditions. Therefore, the
NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of weakening than the
IVCN and HCCA models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.7N 134.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.3N 137.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 21.7N 139.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 22.0N 142.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 22.3N 146.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 22.0N 150.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 21.0N 155.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-07 15:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 071432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

...OLIVIA WEAKENING BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 132.5W
ABOUT 1465 MI...2360 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1640 MI...2640 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLIVIA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB (28.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-07 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 071432 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 132.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 132.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 131.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.7N 134.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 137.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.7N 139.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 142.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.3N 146.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

2018-09-07 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 071432
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 132.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 132.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 131.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.7N 134.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 137.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.7N 139.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 142.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.3N 146.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 132.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-07 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 070903 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH ABOUT PREVIOUS CATEGORY-4 STRENGTH

OLIVIA'S OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE IN INFRARED AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
EXCEPT THAT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE
WELL-DEFINED, 20-NMI-DIAMETER EYE. AS A RESULT, BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OLIVIA
BRIEFLY GAINED CATEGORY-4 STRENGTH ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER, MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS EVOLVED INTO AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE, WITH ONLY INNER-CORE CONVECTION PRESENT AND NO
BANDING FEATURES. AS A RESULT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY ONLY BEEN
DECREASED TO 110 KT, WHICH IS A TYPICAL SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING FOR
ANNULAR HURRICANES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OLIVIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION AS THE HURRICANE NUDGES UP
AGAINST A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE VERY TIGHTLY
PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE, CLOSEST TO THE SPEED OF THE TVCN CONSENSUS
TRACK MODEL.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DISCUSSION, THE CURRENT
ANNULAR PATTERN INDICATES THAT HURRICANE OLIVIA SHOULD WEAKEN MORE

2018-09-07 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 070903 CCA
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018

Corrected second paragraph about previous category-4 strength

Olivia's overall cloud structure in infrared and passive microwave
satellite imagery has changed little since the previous advisory,
except that the cloud tops have warmed significantly around the
well-defined, 20-nmi-diameter eye. As a result, both subjective and
objective intensity estimates have decreased markedly since Olivia
briefly gained category-4 strength on the previous advisory.
However, microwave imagery indicates that Olivia has evolved into an
annular hurricane, with only inner-core convection present and no
banding features. As a result, the initial intensity only been
decreased to 110 kt, which is a typical slower rate of weakening for
annular hurricanes.

The initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Olivia is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 24-36
hours, followed by a westward motion as the hurricane nudges up
against a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge that stretches from
Mexico and the southwestern U.S. westward into the central Pacific.
The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the
previous advisory track and is down the middle of the very tightly
packed model guidance, closest to the speed of the TVCN consensus
track model.

As mentioned in the previous advisory discussion, the current
annular pattern indicates that Hurricane Olivia should weaken more
slowly than indicated by guidance, even though the cyclone will be
moving over slightly cooler SSTS of about 25.5 deg C by 36 h. The
low shear environment that the cyclone will be embedded in should
help to offset some of the negative effects of the cooler waters.
After that time, Olivia will move back over slightly warmer
waters and remain in a low shear environment, so a little leveling
off in the weakening process is forecast until 96 hours. On day 5,
however, southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected
to induce more significant weakening at that time. The official
intensity forecast is similar to, but higher than, the consensus
models, and more closely follows a blend of the dynamical models
HWRF and HMON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 19.6N 131.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.2N 133.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.9N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 21.4N 138.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 21.9N 149.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 21.0N 153.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-07 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 070848 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

OLIVIA'S OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE IN INFRARED AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
EXCEPT THAT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE
WELL-DEFINED, 20-NMI-DIAMETER EYE. AS A RESULT, BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OLIVIA
BRIEFLY REGAINED CATEGORY-4 STRENGTH ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER, MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS EVOLVED INTO AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE, WITH ONLY INNER-CORE CONVECTION PRESENT AND NO
BANDING FEATURES. AS A RESULT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY ONLY BEEN
DECREASED TO 110 KT, WHICH IS A TYPICAL SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING FOR
ANNULAR HURRICANES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OLIVIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION AS THE HURRICANE NUDGES UP
AGAINST A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE VERY TIGHTLY
PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE, CLOSEST TO THE SPEED OF THE TVCN CONSENSUS
TRACK MODEL.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DISCUSSION, THE CURRENT
ANNULAR PATTERN INDICATES THAT HURRICANE OLIVIA SHOULD WEAKEN MORE
SLOWLY THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE, EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE

2018-09-07 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 070848
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018

Olivia's overall cloud structure in infrared and passive microwave
satellite imagery has changed little since the previous advisory,
except that the cloud tops have warmed significantly around the
well-defined, 20-nmi-diameter eye. As a result, both subjective and
objective intensity estimates have decreased markedly since Olivia
briefly regained category-4 strength on the previous advisory.
However, microwave imagery indicates that Olivia has evolved into an
annular hurricane, with only inner-core convection present and no
banding features. As a result, the initial intensity only been
decreased to 110 kt, which is a typical slower rate of weakening for
annular hurricanes.

The initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Olivia is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 24-36
hours, followed by a westward motion as the hurricane nudges up
against a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge that stretches from
Mexico and the southwestern U.S. westward into the central Pacific.
The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the
previous advisory track and is down the middle of the very tightly
packed model guidance, closest to the speed of the TVCN consensus
track model.

As mentioned in the previous advisory discussion, the current
annular pattern indicates that Hurricane Olivia should weaken more
slowly than indicated by guidance, even though the cyclone will be
moving over slightly cooler SSTS of about 25.5 deg C by 36 h. The
low shear environment that the cyclone will be embedded in should
help to offset some of the negative effects of the cooler waters.
After that time, Olivia will move back over slightly warmer
waters and remain in a low shear environment, so a little leveling
off in the weakening process is forecast until 96 hours. On day 5,
however, southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected
to induce more significant weakening at that time. The official
intensity forecast is similar to, but higher than, the consensus
models, and more closely follows a blend of the dynamical models
HWRF and HMON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 19.6N 131.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.2N 133.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.9N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 21.4N 138.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 21.9N 149.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 21.0N 153.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-07 09:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 070848
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2018

...OLIVIA BEGINNING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 131.2W
ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1730 MI...2785 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 131.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLIVIA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-07 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 070847 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 131.2W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 131.2W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 130.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 133.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 135.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 138.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

2018-09-07 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 070847
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 131.2W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 131.2W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 130.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 133.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 135.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 138.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 21.9N 149.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 153.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 131.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-07 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 070406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 110.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2018 0 14.3N 110.0W 1007 17
1200UTC 07.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 16.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2018 0 12.5N 16.2W 1008 28
1200UTC 07.09.2018 12 13.4N 18.0W 1001 37
0000UTC 08.09.2018 24 13.9N 20.2W 997 43
1200UTC 08.09.2018 36 13.9N 21.8W 990 48
0000UTC 09.09.2018 48 14.5N 23.6W 990 50
1200UTC 09.09.2018 60 15.5N 26.3W 983 53
0000UTC 10.09.2018 72 16.7N 29.0W 988 50
1200UTC 10.09.2018 84 18.4N 31.4W 986 60
0000UTC 11.09.2018 96 20.3N 33.5W 994 54
1200UTC 11.09.2018 108 22.0N 35.1W 999 47
0000UTC 12.09.2018 120 23.1N 36.3W 1004 36
1200UTC 12.09.2018 132 24.0N 36.3W 1007 31
0000UTC 13.09.2018 144 25.8N 35.9W 1010 31

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2018 0 13.6N 33.3W 1010 23
1200UTC 07.09.2018 12 13.2N 34.6W 1008 24
0000UTC 08.09.2018 24 13.6N 34.9W 1007 23
1200UTC 08.09.2018 36 13.9N 35.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 09.09.2018 48 14.1N 36.6W 1005 30
1200UTC 09.09.2018 60 14.0N 38.0W 1003 29
0000UTC 10.09.2018 72 14.0N 39.9W 1001 34
1200UTC 10.09.2018 84 13.9N 41.9W 1000 36
0000UTC 11.09.2018 96 14.2N 43.4W 997 39
1200UTC 11.09.2018 108 14.7N 45.4W 996 40
0000UTC 12.09.2018 120 15.3N 47.3W 994 44
1200UTC 12.09.2018 132 16.1N 49.0W 991 52
0000UTC 13.09.2018 144 17.5N 50.2W 981 62

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 50.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2018 0 25.2N 50.2W 991 63
1200UTC 07.09.2018 12 25.2N 51.5W 990 65
0000UTC 08.09.2018 24 25.2N 52.5W 989 61
1200UTC 08.09.2018 36 25.0N 53.7W 986 57
0000UTC 09.09.2018 48 25.0N 54.4W 984 56
1200UTC 09.09.2018 60 25.3N 55.5W 981 59
0000UTC 10.09.2018 72 25.9N 57.0W 973 67
1200UTC 10.09.2018 84 26.4N 59.3W 970 67
0000UTC 11.09.2018 96 26.3N 61.9W 969 66
1200UTC 11.09.2018 108 26.6N 65.2W 959 79
0000UTC 12.09.2018 120 27.3N 68.9W 950 80
1200UTC 12.09.2018 132 28.3N 72.2W 951 81
0000UTC 13.09.2018 144 29.6N 75.0W 948 88

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 151.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2018 0 21.3N 151.2W 984 54
1200UTC 07.09.2018 12 22.3N 152.3W 991 51
0000UTC 08.09.2018 24 23.5N 153.4W 998 41
1200UTC 08.09.2018 36 24.7N 154.7W 1003 38
0000UTC 09.09.2018 48 25.6N 155.6W 1005 33
1200UTC 09.09.2018 60 26.7N 156.4W 1004 38
0000UTC 10.09.2018 72 27.4N 156.6W 1006 29
1200UTC 10.09.2018 84 28.0N 157.5W 1009 26
0000UTC 11.09.2018 96 29.4N 158.9W 1012 24
1200UTC 11.09.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 129.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2018 0 18.6N 129.2W 970 64
1200UTC 07.09.2018 12 19.5N 131.7W 979 59
0000UTC 08.09.2018 24 20.4N 134.3W 985 54
1200UTC 08.09.2018 36 21.0N 136.9W 989 52
0000UTC 09.09.2018 48 21.2N 139.6W 990 50
1200UTC 09.09.2018 60 21.1N 142.2W 992 46
0000UTC 10.09.2018 72 21.1N 144.5W 993 45
1200UTC 10.09.2018 84 21.0N 146.4W 994 44
0000UTC 11.09.2018 96 20.5N 147.9W 996 49
1200UTC 11.09.2018 108 19.7N 149.1W 997 47
0000UTC 12.09.2018 120 18.6N 150.5W 1000 40
1200UTC 12.09.2018 132 18.0N 151.9W 1002 33
0000UTC 13.09.2018 144 17.8N 153.5W 1003 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 15.1N 117.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2018 48 15.3N 117.9W 1000 28
1200UTC 09.09.2018 60 16.3N 119.5W 995 39
0000UTC 10.09.2018 72 17.5N 120.4W 995 37
1200UTC 10.09.2018 84 18.6N 122.1W 995 35
0000UTC 11.09.2018 96 19.7N 124.4W 992 41
1200UTC 11.09.2018 108 20.6N 127.3W 990 45
0000UTC 12.09.2018 120 21.0N 130.4W 993 44
1200UTC 12.09.2018 132 20.8N 132.7W 996 36
0000UTC 13.09.2018 144 21.1N 134.1W 995 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 36.3N 41.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 132 36.3N 41.0W 1001 39
0000UTC 13.09.2018 144 38.4N 40.6W 1001 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070406

2018-09-07 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 070406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 110.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2018 14.3N 110.0W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 16.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2018 12.5N 16.2W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2018 13.4N 18.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 13.9N 20.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 13.9N 21.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 14.5N 23.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 15.5N 26.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 16.7N 29.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2018 18.4N 31.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 20.3N 33.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 22.0N 35.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 23.1N 36.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 24.0N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 25.8N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2018 13.6N 33.3W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2018 13.2N 34.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 13.6N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 13.9N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 14.1N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 14.0N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 14.0N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 13.9N 41.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 14.7N 45.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 15.3N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 16.1N 49.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 17.5N 50.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 50.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2018 25.2N 50.2W MODERATE
12UTC 07.09.2018 25.2N 51.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 25.2N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 25.0N 53.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 25.0N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 25.3N 55.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 25.9N 57.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2018 26.4N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 26.3N 61.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 26.6N 65.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 27.3N 68.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 28.3N 72.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 29.6N 75.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 151.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2018 21.3N 151.2W MODERATE
12UTC 07.09.2018 22.3N 152.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 23.5N 153.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.7N 154.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 25.6N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 26.7N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 27.4N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 28.0N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 29.4N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 129.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2018 18.6N 129.2W STRONG
12UTC 07.09.2018 19.5N 131.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 20.4N 134.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 21.0N 136.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 21.2N 139.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 21.1N 142.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 21.1N 144.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 21.0N 146.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 20.5N 147.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 19.7N 149.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 18.6N 150.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 18.0N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 17.8N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 15.1N 117.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2018 15.3N 117.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2018 16.3N 119.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 17.5N 120.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 18.6N 122.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 19.7N 124.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 20.6N 127.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 21.0N 130.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 20.8N 132.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2018 21.1N 134.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 36.3N 41.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2018 36.3N 41.0W WEAK
00UTC 13.09.2018 38.4N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070406

2018-09-07 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 070232 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

OLIVIA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS AN OUTSTANDING EXAMPLE OF AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH THE SHAPE OF A TRUCK TIRE. IN FACT, THE
ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX ON THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT IS 100. THE
HURRICANE HAS A DISTINCT CLEAR EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE DVORAK NUMBERS, BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE, ARE
T6.0, AND ON THIS BASIS, THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 115 KT IN THIS
ADVISORY. THE CURRENT ANNULAR PATTERN INDICATES THAT HURRICANE
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY THAT INDICATED BY GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM. NEVERTHELESS, SINCE THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK, VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH.

ON THE CONTRARY, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.
OLIVIA IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH, AND THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL
PERSIST, AND MOST LIKELY EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD, AND THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL FORCE OLIVIA TO MOVE ON THE GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OR
EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS IS IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC
FORECAST IN ON TOP OF THE SKINNY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.1N 129.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.7N 131.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 20.5N 134.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 21.2N 136.8W 90 KT 105 MPH

2018-09-07 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 070232
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018

Olivia's satellite presentation is an outstanding example of an
annular hurricane with the shape of a truck tire. In fact, the
Annular Hurricane Index on the SHIPS model output is 100. The
hurricane has a distinct clear eye surrounded by a ring of very deep
convection. The Dvorak numbers, both objective and subjective, are
T6.0, and on this basis, the winds are increased to 115 kt in this
advisory. The current annular pattern indicates that hurricane
should weaken more slowly that indicated by guidance in the short
term. Nevertheless, since the ocean is a little bit cooler along the
forecast track, very gradual weakening is forecast through the next
5 days. The confidence in the intensity forecast is not very high.

On the contrary, the confidence in the track forecast is high.
Olivia is fully embedded within the easterly flow south of a
subtropical high, and the hurricane is moving toward the
west-northwest or 290 degrees at 12 kt. The subtropical high will
persist, and most likely expand farther westward, and this flow
pattern will force Olivia to move on the general westward track or
even south of due west by the end of the forecast period. Guidance
for the next 5 days is in extremely good agreement, and the NHC
forecast in on top of the skinny guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.1N 129.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.7N 131.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 20.5N 134.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 21.2N 136.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 21.5N 139.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 21.8N 144.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 22.0N 148.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 21.5N 152.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-07 03:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 070231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

...OLIVIA EVEN STRONGER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 129.7W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE OLIVIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST. OLIVIA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLIVIA IS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS, BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB (28.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-07 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 070231 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 129.7W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 129.7W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 131.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 134.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N 136.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 144.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

2018-09-07 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 070231
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 129.7W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 129.7W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 131.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 134.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N 136.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 144.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 22.0N 148.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.5N 152.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 129.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-06 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 062051 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

OLIVIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
WITH THE EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INSIDE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
100-120 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 110 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS. THE HURRICANE
REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS SHOWING GOOD
CIRRUS OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

OLIVIA SHOULD REMAIN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENVIRONMENTAL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONTROLS ON THE INTENSITY. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN
ABOUT 12 H, AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN.
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT THE 72 H POINT AS IT ALSO ENCOUNTERS A
DRIER AIRMASS, AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 H,
THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEGIN TO WARM, BUT THE AIRMASS
NEAR OLIVIA GETS EVEN DRIER. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED WEAKENING
DURING THIS TIME, SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF OLIVIA, AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERN
END OF THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

2018-09-06 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 062051
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018

Olivia has continued to strengthen since the previous advisory,
with the eye becoming better defined inside of the central dense
overcast. The various satellite intensity estimates range from
100-120 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged upward to 110 kt in
agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. The hurricane
remains in a light vertical shear environment and is showing good
cirrus outflow, especially in the southwestern semicircle.

Olivia should remain in a light shear environment during the
forecast period, so sea surface temperatures and environmental
moisture should be the main controls on the intensity. The
hurricane should reach the 26C sea surface temperature isotherm in
about 12 h, and this should finally cause the hurricane to weaken.
The forecast track keeps the cyclone over 25-26C sea surface
temperatures through about the 72 h point as it also encounters a
drier airmass, and thus the intensity forecast shows weakening
consistent with the trend of the intensity guidance. After 72 h,
the waters along the forecast track begin to warm, but the airmass
near Olivia gets even drier. The guidance shows continued weakening
during this time, so the intensity forecast follows suit. However,
there is lower confidence in this portion of the forecast.

Water vapor imagery continues to show a large deep-layer ridge to
the north of Olivia, and the large-scale models forecast the western
end of the ridge to build westward during the next several days.
This pattern should steer the cyclone west-northwestward for the
next 48 h or so, followed by a westward motion from 72-120 h. The
tightly clustered track guidance supports this scenario, and the
new forecast track is changed little from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.6N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.2N 130.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 20.0N 133.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 20.7N 135.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 21.2N 138.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.5N 143.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 147.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-06 21:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 062050
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

...OLIVIA GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 128.5W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLIVIA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-06 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 062050 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 128.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 128.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 127.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.2N 138.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 143.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

2018-09-06 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 062050
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 128.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 128.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 127.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.2N 138.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 143.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 147.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 128.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-06 16:34

WTNT80 EGRR 061605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 109.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2018 13.7N 109.1W WEAK
00UTC 07.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 31.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2018 13.9N 31.1W WEAK
00UTC 07.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2018 24.1N 48.6W WEAK
00UTC 07.09.2018 25.0N 49.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 25.2N 51.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 25.0N 52.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.8N 54.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 24.7N 55.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 24.8N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 25.2N 58.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2018 26.0N 60.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 27.2N 63.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 28.3N 67.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 29.2N 71.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2018 30.6N 74.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 150.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2018 20.3N 150.2W STRONG
00UTC 07.09.2018 21.5N 151.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 22.5N 152.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 23.4N 153.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.4N 154.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 25.5N 156.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 26.4N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 26.9N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 27.4N 158.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 28.7N 160.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2018 18.0N 126.6W STRONG
00UTC 07.09.2018 18.6N 129.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 19.4N 131.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 20.3N 134.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 20.8N 137.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 21.1N 140.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 21.1N 142.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 21.3N 144.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 21.6N 146.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 21.7N 148.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.6N 150.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 21.2N 151.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 20.6N 153.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.0N 18.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 14.0N 18.2W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2018 14.4N 20.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 14.1N 22.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 14.9N 23.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 15.6N 26.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 16.7N 28.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 18.2N 31.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 20.1N 34.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 21.5N 36.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 22.6N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 23.7N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.2N 34.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2018 13.3N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 13.7N 35.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 14.2N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 14.6N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 14.8N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 15.0N 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 15.5N 43.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 16.1N 44.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 17.0N 46.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 17.8N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.3N 117.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2018 15.3N 117.9W WEAK
12UTC 09.09.2018 15.6N 119.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 16.3N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 18.0N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 19.4N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 20.2N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 20.5N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2018 20.4N 132.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061605

2018-09-06 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 061437
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that Olivia has a well-defined 20 n mi
wide eye, although the eye is not quite as distinct as it was at
the time of the previous special advisory. The eye is inside of a
central dense overcast with eyewall cloud tops as cold as -80C.
Satellite intensity estimates are currently in the 100-115 kt
range. Based on these, the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, and
it is possible that this is a little conservative. The hurricane
is now in a light vertical shear environment and is showing good
cirrus outflow in the southwestern semicircle.

The intensity guidance has been consistent in saying that Olivia
should weaken due to a combination of decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track and entrainment of dry air.
The hurricane has not yet followed the guidance, and the current
structure and convective trends suggest that this round of
intensification may not be finished. After 12 h, Olivia should move
north of the 26C isotherm, and the cyclone should mostly traverse
sea-surface temperatures of 25-26C for the remainder of the forecast
period. This development should start a weakening trend. The new
intensity forecast allows for 12 h of additional strengthening,
followed by a gradual weakening that follows the overall trend of
the intensity guidance. However, the new forecast lies at the upper
edge of the guidance, and thus most of the forecast intensities are
higher than those in both the previous special and regular
advisories.

Water vapor imagery shows a large deep-layer ridge to the north of
Olivia, and the large-scale models forecast the western end of the
ridge to build westward during the next several days. This pattern
should steer the cyclone west-northwestward for the next 48 h or
so, followed by a westward motion from 72-120 h. The track guidance
is in good agreement with this scenario, and the guidance is more
tightly clustered than it was 24 h ago. The new forecast track is
similar to the previous track through 48 h, then it is nudged a
little to the south of the previous track from 72-120 h. The new
track lies close to the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 18.4N 127.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.9N 129.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.8N 131.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 20.5N 134.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 21.2N 137.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 21.5N 142.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 21.5N 146.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 21.5N 150.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-06 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 061437 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS A WELL-DEFINED 20 N MI
WIDE EYE, ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT QUITE AS DISTINCT AS IT WAS AT
THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE EYE IS INSIDE OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 100-115 KT
RANGE. BASED ON THESE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KT, AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE HURRICANE
IS NOW IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS SHOWING GOOD
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SAYING THAT OLIVIA
SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR.
THE HURRICANE HAS NOT YET FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE, AND THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ROUND OF
INTENSIFICATION MAY NOT BE FINISHED. AFTER 12 H, OLIVIA SHOULD MOVE
NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM, AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOSTLY TRAVERSE
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25-26C FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR 12 H OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING THAT FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE NEW FORECAST LIES AT THE UPPER
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE, AND THUS MOST OF THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE
HIGHER THAN THOSE IN BOTH THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL AND REGULAR

2018-09-06 15:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 061435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

...OLIVIA REMAINS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVING MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 127.2W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OLIVIA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. AFTER
THAT, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB (28.32 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-06 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 061435 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 127.2W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 127.2W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 129.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.8N 131.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 134.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N 137.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

2018-09-06 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 061435
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 127.2W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 127.2W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 129.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.8N 131.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 134.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N 137.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 21.5N 150.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 127.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-06 12:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 061146
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
500 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

OLIVIA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
HAS RE-GAINED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS
BEING ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT AND TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY DURING THE FIRST 72 H OF THE FORECAST.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE LATER PORTIONS OF
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1200Z 18.2N 126.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-06 12:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 061145
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
500 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

...OLIVIA RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 126.5W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLIVIA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY. AFTER THAT, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB (28.32 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-06 12:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 061145 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1200 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 126.5W AT 06/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 126.5W AT 06/1200Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

2018-09-06 12:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 061145
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1200 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 126.5W AT 06/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 126.5W AT 06/1200Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 126.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-06 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 060844 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING OLIVIA'S 25 N MI DIAMETER EYE HAVE COOLED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, INDICATIVE OF A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT, WHICH
IS A BLEND OF LOWER SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND HIGHER OBJECTIVE
SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES. OLIVIA WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT
COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODELS, IVCN AND HCCA. OLIVIA HAS A FAIRLY LARGE EYE
WITH LIMITED BANDING FEATURES, BUT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES
A LOW LIKELIHOOD THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME AN ANNULAR HURRICANE.
NONETHELESS, IF THAT TRANSITION WERE TO OCCUR, OLIVIA WOULD LIKELY
MAINTAIN A HIGHER INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN INDICATED
HERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION
OR FORECAST REASONING. OLIVIA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR 285/12 KT. A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS A RESULT, OLIVIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN FROM ITS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO A WESTWARD COURSE BY THE WEEKEND.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY AN

2018-09-06 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 060844
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018

The cloud tops surrounding Olivia's 25 n mi diameter eye have cooled
somewhat over the past several hours, indicative of a little
strengthening. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, which
is a blend of lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective
SATCON and ADT estimates. Olivia will soon be moving over somewhat
cooler SSTs and into a drier mid-level air mass. This should lead
to gradual weakening over the next few days. The official intensity
forecast is very close to the simple and corrected intensity
consensus models, IVCN and HCCA. Olivia has a fairly large eye
with limited banding features, but the numerical guidance indicates
a low likelihood that the system could become an annular hurricane.
Nonetheless, if that transition were to occur, Olivia would likely
maintain a higher intensity for the next few days than indicated
here.

No significant changes have been made to the NHC track prediction
or forecast reasoning. Olivia continues moving west-northwestward
or 285/12 kt. A well-defined deep-layer ridge should remain in
place to the north of the hurricane for the next several days, and
this ridge is expected to build westward during the forecast
period. As a result, Olivia should gradually turn from its
west-northwestward heading to a westward course by the weekend.
The track guidance models remain in excellent agreement on this
scenario. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and the latest ECMWF prediction. This is essentially an
update of the previous NHC track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 18.1N 125.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-06 09:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 060843
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2018

...OLIVIA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 125.8W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.8 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WITHIN A DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB (28.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-06 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 060843 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 125.8W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 125.8W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

2018-09-06 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 060843
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 125.8W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 125.8W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 125.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-06 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 060403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 32.9N 90.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2018 0 32.9N 90.6W 1013 15
1200UTC 06.09.2018 12 33.9N 91.6W 1013 12
0000UTC 07.09.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 105.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2018 0 13.8N 105.1W 1008 19
1200UTC 06.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 29.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2018 0 12.8N 29.1W 1010 21
1200UTC 06.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 47.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2018 0 22.7N 47.1W 998 59
1200UTC 06.09.2018 12 23.8N 49.0W 1002 53
0000UTC 07.09.2018 24 24.4N 50.8W 1004 48
1200UTC 07.09.2018 36 24.5N 52.5W 1004 46
0000UTC 08.09.2018 48 24.3N 54.1W 1003 43
1200UTC 08.09.2018 60 24.1N 55.7W 1002 42
0000UTC 09.09.2018 72 23.9N 56.7W 1001 45
1200UTC 09.09.2018 84 24.0N 58.1W 996 49
0000UTC 10.09.2018 96 24.4N 59.6W 988 53
1200UTC 10.09.2018 108 24.7N 62.2W 975 62
0000UTC 11.09.2018 120 24.8N 65.4W 972 69
1200UTC 11.09.2018 132 24.6N 68.7W 967 78
0000UTC 12.09.2018 144 24.6N 71.5W 966 77

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 148.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2018 0 19.8N 148.8W 975 62
1200UTC 06.09.2018 12 20.3N 150.2W 978 60
0000UTC 07.09.2018 24 21.6N 151.0W 984 58
1200UTC 07.09.2018 36 22.6N 152.0W 990 54
0000UTC 08.09.2018 48 23.3N 153.3W 999 42
1200UTC 08.09.2018 60 24.2N 154.9W 1005 36
0000UTC 09.09.2018 72 25.2N 156.1W 1006 33
1200UTC 09.09.2018 84 26.1N 157.2W 1007 34
0000UTC 10.09.2018 96 26.8N 158.2W 1008 28
1200UTC 10.09.2018 108 27.7N 159.3W 1011 26
0000UTC 11.09.2018 120 29.1N 161.1W 1013 24
1200UTC 11.09.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 124.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2018 0 17.4N 124.1W 970 65
1200UTC 06.09.2018 12 18.1N 126.6W 972 61
0000UTC 07.09.2018 24 18.8N 129.3W 975 59
1200UTC 07.09.2018 36 19.4N 131.9W 979 55
0000UTC 08.09.2018 48 20.3N 134.4W 984 57
1200UTC 08.09.2018 60 20.9N 136.9W 987 53
0000UTC 09.09.2018 72 21.4N 139.6W 990 50
1200UTC 09.09.2018 84 21.3N 142.2W 992 47
0000UTC 10.09.2018 96 21.4N 144.4W 993 47
1200UTC 10.09.2018 108 21.4N 146.6W 994 44
0000UTC 11.09.2018 120 21.2N 148.5W 995 48
1200UTC 11.09.2018 132 20.6N 150.2W 995 55
0000UTC 12.09.2018 144 19.8N 151.9W 997 52

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 13.5N 34.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2018 48 13.8N 34.5W 1005 29
1200UTC 08.09.2018 60 14.6N 34.9W 1003 27
0000UTC 09.09.2018 72 15.2N 35.8W 1002 33
1200UTC 09.09.2018 84 15.7N 37.0W 1001 35
0000UTC 10.09.2018 96 16.7N 38.9W 1000 40
1200UTC 10.09.2018 108 17.1N 40.6W 998 47
0000UTC 11.09.2018 120 17.8N 42.6W 998 43
1200UTC 11.09.2018 132 18.4N 44.4W 997 45
0000UTC 12.09.2018 144 19.4N 45.9W 996 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.5N 118.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 84 15.9N 119.7W 1001 29
0000UTC 10.09.2018 96 16.7N 120.9W 999 29
1200UTC 10.09.2018 108 17.8N 122.1W 999 31
0000UTC 11.09.2018 120 18.7N 124.0W 997 39
1200UTC 11.09.2018 132 19.8N 126.6W 995 41
0000UTC 12.09.2018 144 20.2N 129.4W 995 41


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060403

2018-09-06 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 060403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 32.9N 90.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2018 32.9N 90.6W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2018 33.9N 91.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 105.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2018 13.8N 105.1W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 29.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2018 12.8N 29.1W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 47.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2018 22.7N 47.1W MODERATE
12UTC 06.09.2018 23.8N 49.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2018 24.4N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 24.5N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.3N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.1N 55.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 23.9N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 24.0N 58.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 24.4N 59.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2018 24.7N 62.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.09.2018 24.8N 65.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 24.6N 68.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2018 24.6N 71.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 148.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2018 19.8N 148.8W STRONG
12UTC 06.09.2018 20.3N 150.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 21.6N 151.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 22.6N 152.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 23.3N 153.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.2N 154.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 25.2N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 26.1N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 26.8N 158.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 27.7N 159.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 29.1N 161.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 124.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2018 17.4N 124.1W STRONG
12UTC 06.09.2018 18.1N 126.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 18.8N 129.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 19.4N 131.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 20.3N 134.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 20.9N 136.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 21.4N 139.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 21.3N 142.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 21.4N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 21.4N 146.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 21.2N 148.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 20.6N 150.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 19.8N 151.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 13.5N 34.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2018 13.8N 34.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 14.6N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 15.2N 35.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 15.7N 37.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 16.7N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 17.1N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 17.8N 42.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 18.4N 44.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 19.4N 45.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.5N 118.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2018 15.9N 119.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 16.7N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 17.8N 122.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 18.7N 124.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 19.8N 126.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2018 20.2N 129.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060403

2018-09-06 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 060238 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2018

OLIVIA CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE, BUT THE
SURROUNDING CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE PAST 6 H OR SO. DVORAK
NUMBERS ARE STEADY, AND A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THE SHEAR IS NOT A
PROBLEM FOR OLIVIA SINCE IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
ENTIRE 5-DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, IN ABOUT A DAY, THE SSTS ALONG
OLIVIA'S TRACK WILL DECREASE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN TRACK, AND OLIVIA IS STILL MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE HURRICANE, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLIVIA ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR HE
NEXT 5 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD, FORCING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WESTWARD.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN AN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, AND THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER
THAT TIME, ALTHOUGH THE ENVELOPE WIDENS A LITTLE BIT, MODELS STILL
INDICATE A WESTWARD-MOVING CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 17.7N 124.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 18.2N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.9N 129.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

2018-09-06 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 060238
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018

Olivia continues to have a large and distinct eye, but the
surrounding convection has not changed in the past 6 h or so. Dvorak
numbers are steady, and a blend of objective and subjective
estimates yield an initial intensity of 85 kt. The shear is not a
problem for Olivia since it is forecast to remain low through the
entire 5-day period. However, in about a day, the SSTs along
Olivia's track will decrease resulting in a gradual weakening
of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, and follows the intensity consensus.

There has been no change in track, and Olivia is still moving
toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 12 kt. The subtropical
ridge is anchored north of the hurricane, and this flow pattern
should continue to steer Olivia on the same general track for he
next 5 days. By the end of the forecast period, the ridge is
expected to expand westward, forcing the cyclone to move westward.
Track models are in an excellent agreement, and the guidance
envelope remains tightly clustered for the next 3 days. After
that time, although the envelope widens a little bit, models still
indicate a westward-moving cyclone. The NHC forecast is in the
middle of the envelope and very close to the multi-model aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 17.7N 124.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 18.2N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.9N 129.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 21.8N 139.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-06 03:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 060237
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2018

...OLIVIA HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 124.6W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB (28.91 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-06 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 060237 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 124.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 170SE 170SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 124.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 126.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 129.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 139.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

2018-09-06 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 060237
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 124.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 170SE 170SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 124.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 126.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 129.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 139.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-05 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 051603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 27.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 12.0N 27.3W 1010 23
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 45.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 21.6N 45.5W 998 49
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 22.7N 47.6W 1001 55
1200UTC 06.09.2018 24 23.6N 49.7W 1006 44
0000UTC 07.09.2018 36 24.1N 51.5W 1008 40
1200UTC 07.09.2018 48 24.2N 53.4W 1007 37
0000UTC 08.09.2018 60 24.1N 54.8W 1006 35
1200UTC 08.09.2018 72 23.9N 56.2W 1005 36
0000UTC 09.09.2018 84 23.6N 57.2W 1003 40
1200UTC 09.09.2018 96 23.3N 58.4W 1003 39
0000UTC 10.09.2018 108 23.2N 59.5W 1002 41
1200UTC 10.09.2018 120 23.8N 60.7W 999 49
0000UTC 11.09.2018 132 24.4N 63.3W 990 52
1200UTC 11.09.2018 144 24.5N 66.6W 990 50

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 89.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 32.0N 89.7W 1008 18
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 32.9N 91.0W 1011 16
1200UTC 06.09.2018 24 33.4N 91.8W 1011 17
0000UTC 07.09.2018 36 33.6N 93.1W 1011 11
1200UTC 07.09.2018 48 33.9N 93.7W 1011 10
0000UTC 08.09.2018 60 34.7N 94.0W 1009 12
1200UTC 08.09.2018 72 35.9N 93.2W 1006 14
0000UTC 09.09.2018 84 36.6N 92.0W 1004 15
1200UTC 09.09.2018 96 37.8N 90.7W 1004 19
0000UTC 10.09.2018 108 39.2N 87.3W 1005 21
1200UTC 10.09.2018 120 42.0N 83.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 11.09.2018 132 43.0N 80.6W 1007 23
1200UTC 11.09.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 147.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 19.8N 147.4W 970 71
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 20.0N 148.8W 970 68
1200UTC 06.09.2018 24 20.4N 150.0W 980 59
0000UTC 07.09.2018 36 21.8N 150.8W 979 64
1200UTC 07.09.2018 48 22.8N 151.9W 991 50
0000UTC 08.09.2018 60 23.4N 153.3W 1000 41
1200UTC 08.09.2018 72 24.3N 155.1W 1005 36
0000UTC 09.09.2018 84 25.2N 156.4W 1006 33
1200UTC 09.09.2018 96 26.0N 157.5W 1007 32
0000UTC 10.09.2018 108 26.5N 158.5W 1008 29
1200UTC 10.09.2018 120 27.2N 159.4W 1010 27
0000UTC 11.09.2018 132 28.6N 160.8W 1012 24
1200UTC 11.09.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 121.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 16.9N 121.9W 950 78
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 17.3N 124.0W 960 69
1200UTC 06.09.2018 24 18.1N 126.6W 963 69
0000UTC 07.09.2018 36 19.1N 129.5W 966 64
1200UTC 07.09.2018 48 20.2N 132.4W 975 58
0000UTC 08.09.2018 60 21.4N 135.3W 982 54
1200UTC 08.09.2018 72 22.2N 138.2W 991 49
0000UTC 09.09.2018 84 22.6N 140.9W 993 47
1200UTC 09.09.2018 96 22.7N 143.6W 995 42
0000UTC 10.09.2018 108 23.0N 145.7W 995 45
1200UTC 10.09.2018 120 23.1N 147.4W 995 45
0000UTC 11.09.2018 132 23.1N 148.8W 999 45
1200UTC 11.09.2018 144 22.8N 150.9W 1004 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.8N 34.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 48 12.8N 34.0W 1006 28
0000UTC 08.09.2018 60 13.9N 33.8W 1004 29
1200UTC 08.09.2018 72 15.0N 34.2W 1002 29
0000UTC 09.09.2018 84 16.0N 35.4W 1002 32
1200UTC 09.09.2018 96 16.6N 36.8W 1001 36
0000UTC 10.09.2018 108 17.5N 39.1W 999 44
1200UTC 10.09.2018 120 18.3N 41.5W 998 44
0000UTC 11.09.2018 132 19.1N 43.6W 999 41
1200UTC 11.09.2018 144 19.7N 45.8W 1000 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.9N 119.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 96 13.9N 119.9W 1003 28
0000UTC 10.09.2018 108 15.2N 120.7W 999 30
1200UTC 10.09.2018 120 16.2N 121.2W 997 33
0000UTC 11.09.2018 132 18.0N 122.1W 995 34
1200UTC 11.09.2018 144 19.2N 124.0W 989 49


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051603

2018-09-05 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 051603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 27.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2018 12.0N 27.3W WEAK
00UTC 06.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 45.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2018 21.6N 45.5W MODERATE
00UTC 06.09.2018 22.7N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 23.6N 49.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2018 24.1N 51.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 24.2N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.1N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 23.9N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 23.6N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 23.3N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 23.2N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 23.8N 60.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 24.4N 63.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 24.5N 66.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 89.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2018 32.0N 89.7W WEAK
00UTC 06.09.2018 32.9N 91.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 33.4N 91.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 33.6N 93.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 33.9N 93.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 34.7N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 35.9N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 36.6N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 37.8N 90.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 39.2N 87.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 42.0N 83.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 43.0N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 147.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2018 19.8N 147.4W STRONG
00UTC 06.09.2018 20.0N 148.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 20.4N 150.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2018 21.8N 150.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 22.8N 151.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 23.4N 153.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.3N 155.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 25.2N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 26.0N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 26.5N 158.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 27.2N 159.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 28.6N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 121.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2018 16.9N 121.9W INTENSE
00UTC 06.09.2018 17.3N 124.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 18.1N 126.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 19.1N 129.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 20.2N 132.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 21.4N 135.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 22.2N 138.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 22.6N 140.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 22.7N 143.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 23.0N 145.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 23.1N 147.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 23.1N 148.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2018 22.8N 150.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.8N 34.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 12.8N 34.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2018 13.9N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 15.0N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 16.0N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 16.6N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 17.5N 39.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 18.3N 41.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 19.1N 43.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 19.7N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.9N 119.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2018 13.9N 119.9W WEAK
00UTC 10.09.2018 15.2N 120.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 16.2N 121.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 18.0N 122.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2018 19.2N 124.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051603

2018-09-05 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 051442 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2018

OLIVIA IS STILL SLOWLY WEAKENING, WITH A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE
EYEWALL CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE VARIOUS
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW IN
THE 90-100 KT RANGE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 95 KT
GIVEN THE DECAY IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OLIVIA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR, BUT THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H.
THEREFORE, THE MAJOR INFLUENCES ON THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE GRADUALLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT OLIVIA SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND BASED ON
THIS THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OLIVIA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 H IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TREND CONTINUES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THERE ARE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF OLIVIA SHOULD INDUCE A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE THAT WOULD
TURN OLIVIA BACK TO A WESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE UKMET AND THE UKMET

2018-09-05 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 051442
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018

Olivia is still slowly weakening, with a continued erosion of the
eyewall convection in the northwestern quadrant. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in
the 90-100 kt range, and the initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt
given the decay in the cloud pattern since the previous advisory.

Olivia is currently experiencing moderate easterly shear, but the
guidance suggests this should decrease during the next 12-24 h.
Therefore, the major influences on the intensity should be gradually
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and
entrainment of dry air. The intensity guidance is in good agreement
that Olivia should weaken through the forecast period, and based on
this the new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast. There is a chance that Olivia could weaken faster than
currently forecast during the first 24 h if the current convective
trend continues.

The initial motion is 280/11. There is no change to the forecast
philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only minor
adjustments to the forecast track. A building subtropical ridge
over the eastern Pacific to the north of Olivia should induce a
general west-northwestward motion with increasing forward speed
during the next several days. Toward the end of the forecast
period, global models continue to show a stronger ridge that would
turn Olivia back to a westward motion. The track guidance is in
good agreement with this scenario, although the UKMET and the UKMET
ensemble mean show a motion to the north of the other models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 17.1N 122.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 19.0N 129.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.9N 132.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 22.0N 142.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 22.5N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-05 15:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 051442
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2018

...OLIVIA WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 122.3W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB (28.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-05 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 051441 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N 132.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-09-05 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 051441
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N 132.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 142.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-05 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 050857 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2018

GOES-15 IMAGERY AND A RECENT METOP-B AMSU OVERPASS INDICATE THAT
OLIVIA'S EYEWALL HAS COLLAPSED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT A
LOWERED INTENSITY OF 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR, GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE
AT DAY 4 AND 5 TO AGREE MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

OLIVIA'S CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 275/11 KT.
A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TO THE
NORTH OF OLIVIA IS SHOULD INDUCE A WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE, AND A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS SHOWN
IN THE ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST 6
HOURS AGO, AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOAA-HCCA AND TVCN, WHICH ARE
TYPICALLY BETTER-PERFORMING GUIDANCE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 16.9N 121.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.2N 122.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.8N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 128.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 130.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

2018-09-05 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 050857
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018

GOES-15 imagery and a recent METOP-B AMSU overpass indicate that
Olivia's eyewall has collapsed in the northwest quadrant.
Additionally, the eye temperature has warmed considerably.
Subjective and Objective T-numbers have decreased and support a
lowered intensity of 100 kt for this advisory.

Moderate easterly shear, gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures, and drier, more stable air in the middle portions of
the atmosphere along the forecast track of the cyclone should
cause the hurricane to continue to slowly weaken. The only
adjustment made to the NHC intensity forecast was a slight increase
at day 4 and 5 to agree more with the consensus intensity guidance.

Olivia's current motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/11 kt.
A building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific and to the
north of Olivia is should induce a westward and west-northwestward
with increasing forward speed during the next several days.
Toward the end of the forecast period, global models continue to
show a stronger ridge, and a turn back toward the west is shown
in the advisory. The official forecast is similar to the forecast 6
hours ago, and is close to the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN, which are
typically better-performing guidance models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 16.9N 121.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.2N 122.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.8N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 128.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 130.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.3N 136.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.2N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 22.8N 146.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-05 09:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 050856
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2018

...OLIVIA WEAKENS SOME...STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 121.2W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OLIVIA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-05 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 050855 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.2N 122.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 128.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.3N 136.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-09-05 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 050855
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.2N 122.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 128.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.3N 136.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 141.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.8N 146.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-05 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 050404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 23.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 0 12.3N 23.6W 1010 21
1200UTC 05.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 43.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 0 20.5N 43.9W 994 53
1200UTC 05.09.2018 12 21.6N 45.7W 998 52
0000UTC 06.09.2018 24 22.6N 47.8W 1001 50
1200UTC 06.09.2018 36 23.6N 49.7W 1004 48
0000UTC 07.09.2018 48 24.2N 51.1W 1005 46
1200UTC 07.09.2018 60 24.4N 52.9W 1005 44
0000UTC 08.09.2018 72 24.3N 54.2W 1003 42
1200UTC 08.09.2018 84 24.2N 55.1W 999 48
0000UTC 09.09.2018 96 24.5N 56.0W 991 55
1200UTC 09.09.2018 108 24.7N 57.4W 985 53
0000UTC 10.09.2018 120 25.1N 59.1W 971 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 132 25.2N 61.0W 965 70
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 25.2N 63.1W 963 70

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 0 29.6N 87.9W 996 54
1200UTC 05.09.2018 12 31.7N 89.7W 1006 21
0000UTC 06.09.2018 24 33.0N 91.1W 1007 22
1200UTC 06.09.2018 36 33.3N 92.3W 1010 15
0000UTC 07.09.2018 48 33.4N 93.8W 1011 11
1200UTC 07.09.2018 60 33.9N 94.5W 1011 11
0000UTC 08.09.2018 72 34.5N 95.1W 1010 11
1200UTC 08.09.2018 84 35.6N 94.7W 1007 13
0000UTC 09.09.2018 96 36.8N 93.3W 1005 14
1200UTC 09.09.2018 108 38.5N 91.1W 1003 19
0000UTC 10.09.2018 120 40.0N 86.8W 1004 26
1200UTC 10.09.2018 132 42.3N 83.2W 1005 34
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 43.6N 80.1W 1007 32

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 145.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 0 19.5N 145.1W 980 57
1200UTC 05.09.2018 12 19.5N 147.0W 980 60
0000UTC 06.09.2018 24 20.0N 148.4W 978 61
1200UTC 06.09.2018 36 20.5N 149.8W 982 55
0000UTC 07.09.2018 48 21.4N 150.8W 987 53
1200UTC 07.09.2018 60 22.2N 151.9W 994 45
0000UTC 08.09.2018 72 23.0N 153.5W 1000 38
1200UTC 08.09.2018 84 24.0N 155.2W 1005 36
0000UTC 09.09.2018 96 25.3N 156.4W 1006 34
1200UTC 09.09.2018 108 25.9N 157.5W 1008 31
0000UTC 10.09.2018 120 26.6N 158.2W 1008 28
1200UTC 10.09.2018 132 27.2N 159.2W 1010 26
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 28.4N 160.1W 1012 24

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 0 16.5N 119.7W 954 74
1200UTC 05.09.2018 12 16.9N 121.7W 953 76
0000UTC 06.09.2018 24 17.6N 124.2W 956 74
1200UTC 06.09.2018 36 18.3N 127.0W 956 72
0000UTC 07.09.2018 48 19.2N 130.0W 968 69
1200UTC 07.09.2018 60 20.4N 132.9W 975 60
0000UTC 08.09.2018 72 21.7N 135.8W 983 58
1200UTC 08.09.2018 84 22.5N 138.5W 990 52
0000UTC 09.09.2018 96 23.0N 140.9W 993 48
1200UTC 09.09.2018 108 23.2N 143.2W 995 43
0000UTC 10.09.2018 120 23.7N 145.1W 995 46
1200UTC 10.09.2018 132 24.2N 146.5W 994 47
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 24.2N 148.1W 1000 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.5N 34.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 60 12.8N 34.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 08.09.2018 72 13.4N 34.4W 1002 35
1200UTC 08.09.2018 84 14.4N 34.4W 1000 33
0000UTC 09.09.2018 96 15.6N 34.9W 999 35
1200UTC 09.09.2018 108 16.3N 36.8W 995 46
0000UTC 10.09.2018 120 16.8N 38.5W 993 46
1200UTC 10.09.2018 132 17.3N 40.3W 995 46
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 18.4N 41.9W 995 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.1N 118.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 17.5N 118.8W 1003 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050404

2018-09-05 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 050404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 23.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.09.2018 12.3N 23.6W WEAK
12UTC 05.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 43.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.09.2018 20.5N 43.9W MODERATE
12UTC 05.09.2018 21.6N 45.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2018 22.6N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 23.6N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 24.2N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 24.4N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.3N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.2N 55.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 24.5N 56.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2018 24.7N 57.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 25.1N 59.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.09.2018 25.2N 61.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2018 25.2N 63.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.09.2018 29.6N 87.9W MODERATE
12UTC 05.09.2018 31.7N 89.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2018 33.0N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 33.3N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 33.4N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 33.9N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 34.5N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 35.6N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 36.8N 93.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 38.5N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 40.0N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 42.3N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 43.6N 80.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 145.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.09.2018 19.5N 145.1W STRONG
12UTC 05.09.2018 19.5N 147.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 20.0N 148.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 20.5N 149.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 21.4N 150.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 22.2N 151.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 23.0N 153.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.0N 155.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 25.3N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 25.9N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 26.6N 158.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 27.2N 159.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 28.4N 160.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.09.2018 16.5N 119.7W INTENSE
12UTC 05.09.2018 16.9N 121.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 17.6N 124.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 18.3N 127.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 19.2N 130.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 20.4N 132.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 21.7N 135.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 22.5N 138.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 23.0N 140.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 23.2N 143.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 23.7N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 24.2N 146.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 24.2N 148.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.5N 34.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 12.8N 34.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 13.4N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 14.4N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 15.6N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 16.3N 36.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 16.8N 38.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 17.3N 40.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2018 18.4N 41.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.1N 118.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2018 17.5N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050404

2018-09-05 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 050247 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018

OLIVIA IS DISPLAYING A WELL-DEFINED EYE THIS EVENING EMBEDDED WITHIN
A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
TO HAVE LEVELED OFF, SINCE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED ONLY
SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL SUPPORT A HIGHER WIND SPEED OF 110 KT.

MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR, GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF OLIVIA
WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE LAST ONE,
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST IS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE I DON'T FEEL PARTICULARLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS WEAKENING, GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR THIS HURRICANE SO FAR.

OLIVIA IS MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST, 265/10. A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST
TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONGER
RIDGE, AND A WESTWARD TURN IS POSSIBLE. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE, AND THE OFFICIAL NHC PREDICTION IS
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 121.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.2N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.1N 129.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

2018-09-05 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 050247
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Olivia is displaying a well-defined eye this evening embedded within
a circular central dense overcast. The rapid intensification seems
to have leveled off, since Dvorak estimates have increased only
slightly, but still support a higher wind speed of 110 kt.

Moderate easterly shear, gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures, and dry air aloft along the forecast track of Olivia
will likely cause the hurricane to slowly weaken by late Wednesday.
The new intensity forecast is slightly higher than the last one,
near or a bit above the model consensus. The forecast is on the
higher side of the guidance because I don't feel particularly
confident about this weakening, given the poor performance of the
guidance for this hurricane so far.

Olivia is moving a little south of due west, 265/10. A
building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
to cause the hurricane to move westward and west-northwestward
with increasing forward speed during the next several days.
Near the end of the forecast, model guidance is showing a stronger
ridge, and a westward turn is possible. The guidance envelope has
shifted southward on this cycle, and the official NHC prediction is
adjusted in that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 121.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.2N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.1N 129.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 20.9N 135.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 140.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 22.5N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-05 03:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 050246
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018

...OLIVIA STILL INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 120.1W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLIVIA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-05 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 050246 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 126.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 129.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 135.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-09-05 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 050246
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 126.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 129.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 135.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 145.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 120.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-04 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 042034 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018

OLIVIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED 15-20
N MI WIDE EYE INSIDE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A COMPLEX OF OUTER
BANDS IS ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE VARIOUS
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 100-110 KT
RANGE, AND THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED IN AN
APPARENT ENVIRONMENT OF 10-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS.

AS WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST, HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
WILL OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
CONTINUED SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL ALLOW 12 H OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING,
AND THE GUIDANCE AGAIN FORECASTS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING
THIS TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT STOP INTENSIFICATION THAT ABRUPTLY, AND
IT NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KT IN 12 H AT THE UPPER
EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT OLIVIA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN THIS. AFTER 12-24 H, THE COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE. THIS PART
OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10, AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, A

2018-09-04 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 042034
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Olivia has continued to strengthen and now has a well-defined 15-20
n mi wide eye inside a central dense overcast. A complex of outer
bands is also occurring in the southwestern semicircle. The various
satellite intensity estimates have increased into the 100-110 kt
range, and thus the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt. It
should be noted that the current intensification has occurred in an
apparent environment of 10-20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear,
as indicated by the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS.

As with the earlier forecast, how much additional intensification
will occur is uncertain. The intensity guidance suggests that
continued shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track will allow 12 h or less of additional strengthening,
and the guidance again forecasts only modest strengthening during
this time. Given the persistence of the rapid intensification, the
intensity forecast will not stop intensification that abruptly, and
it now calls for a peak intensity of 110 kt in 12 h at the upper
edge of the intensity guidance. It is still possible that Olivia
could get stronger than this. After 12-24 h, the cooler sea surface
temperatures and entrainment of dry air should cause gradual
weakening even though the shear is forecast to decrease. This part
of the intensity forecast lies a little above the intensity
consensus.

The initial motion is 270/10, and the short-term motion may be a
little to the south of due west. As noted previously, a
building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
to induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with an
increasing forward speed during the next several days. Near the
end of the forecast period, a more westward motion is possible.
The model guidance again supports this scenario with a tight
clustering, and the new NHC track forecast is similar to, but
slightly south of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.9N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.0N 120.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 17.4N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 18.1N 125.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 22.5N 139.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 144.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-04 21:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 042033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018

...OLIVIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 119.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLIVIA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB (28.32 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-04 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 042032 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.0N 120.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.1N 125.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-09-04 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 042032
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.0N 120.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.1N 125.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 119.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-04 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 041606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 22.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2018 0 12.2N 22.5W 1009 19
0000UTC 05.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 42.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2018 0 19.5N 42.1W 994 52
0000UTC 05.09.2018 12 20.5N 44.0W 992 55
1200UTC 05.09.2018 24 21.4N 46.0W 996 53
0000UTC 06.09.2018 36 22.4N 48.0W 1001 47
1200UTC 06.09.2018 48 23.3N 49.9W 1004 45
0000UTC 07.09.2018 60 23.9N 51.5W 1006 41
1200UTC 07.09.2018 72 24.2N 53.2W 1006 39
0000UTC 08.09.2018 84 24.5N 54.4W 1005 37
1200UTC 08.09.2018 96 24.7N 55.6W 1003 43
0000UTC 09.09.2018 108 24.9N 56.2W 994 58
1200UTC 09.09.2018 120 25.3N 57.5W 988 60
0000UTC 10.09.2018 132 25.7N 58.7W 975 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 144 26.3N 60.5W 969 63

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 86.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2018 0 28.3N 86.1W 1000 56
0000UTC 05.09.2018 12 29.7N 88.1W 993 58
1200UTC 05.09.2018 24 31.7N 89.9W 999 26
0000UTC 06.09.2018 36 32.6N 91.4W 1004 26
1200UTC 06.09.2018 48 32.8N 92.7W 1006 19
0000UTC 07.09.2018 60 33.0N 94.0W 1007 18
1200UTC 07.09.2018 72 33.6N 95.0W 1006 22
0000UTC 08.09.2018 84 34.3N 95.4W 1006 16
1200UTC 08.09.2018 96 35.0N 95.2W 1005 13
0000UTC 09.09.2018 108 36.1N 94.2W 1003 18
1200UTC 09.09.2018 120 38.1N 92.1W 1001 20
0000UTC 10.09.2018 132 40.1N 88.5W 1001 27
1200UTC 10.09.2018 144 43.4N 84.1W 998 41

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 142.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2018 0 20.0N 142.8W 973 65
0000UTC 05.09.2018 12 20.0N 145.1W 978 58
1200UTC 05.09.2018 24 20.2N 146.9W 976 62
0000UTC 06.09.2018 36 20.6N 148.4W 976 65
1200UTC 06.09.2018 48 21.3N 149.7W 980 57
0000UTC 07.09.2018 60 22.3N 150.7W 985 58
1200UTC 07.09.2018 72 23.2N 151.7W 995 46
0000UTC 08.09.2018 84 24.1N 153.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 08.09.2018 96 25.1N 154.7W 1006 34
0000UTC 09.09.2018 108 26.4N 155.6W 1006 38
1200UTC 09.09.2018 120 27.6N 156.4W 1007 34
0000UTC 10.09.2018 132 28.8N 156.1W 1007 30
1200UTC 10.09.2018 144 29.8N 156.3W 1009 28

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 117.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2018 0 16.6N 117.7W 963 69
0000UTC 05.09.2018 12 16.7N 119.3W 953 75
1200UTC 05.09.2018 24 17.2N 121.6W 953 77
0000UTC 06.09.2018 36 17.8N 124.1W 958 71
1200UTC 06.09.2018 48 18.6N 127.0W 961 71
0000UTC 07.09.2018 60 19.3N 130.0W 970 62
1200UTC 07.09.2018 72 20.2N 132.7W 982 53
0000UTC 08.09.2018 84 21.4N 135.7W 986 54
1200UTC 08.09.2018 96 22.3N 138.6W 993 47
0000UTC 09.09.2018 108 23.0N 141.3W 995 45
1200UTC 09.09.2018 120 23.4N 143.7W 996 40
0000UTC 10.09.2018 132 24.0N 145.5W 995 47
1200UTC 10.09.2018 144 24.5N 147.0W 995 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.9N 33.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2018 60 13.0N 34.5W 1006 27
1200UTC 07.09.2018 72 13.4N 35.9W 1003 31
0000UTC 08.09.2018 84 14.0N 36.5W 999 36
1200UTC 08.09.2018 96 14.9N 36.8W 996 36
0000UTC 09.09.2018 108 16.1N 37.7W 994 39
1200UTC 09.09.2018 120 17.2N 39.4W 992 47
0000UTC 10.09.2018 132 18.2N 41.5W 989 56
1200UTC 10.09.2018 144 18.9N 43.8W 991 52


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041606

2018-09-04 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 041606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 22.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2018 12.2N 22.5W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 42.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2018 19.5N 42.1W MODERATE
00UTC 05.09.2018 20.5N 44.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 21.4N 46.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2018 22.4N 48.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 23.3N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 23.9N 51.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 24.2N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.5N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.7N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 24.9N 56.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2018 25.3N 57.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 25.7N 58.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.09.2018 26.3N 60.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 86.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2018 28.3N 86.1W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2018 29.7N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 31.7N 89.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2018 32.6N 91.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 32.8N 92.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 33.0N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 33.6N 95.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 34.3N 95.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 35.0N 95.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 36.1N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 38.1N 92.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 40.1N 88.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 43.4N 84.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 142.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2018 20.0N 142.8W STRONG
00UTC 05.09.2018 20.0N 145.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 20.2N 146.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 20.6N 148.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 21.3N 149.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2018 22.3N 150.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 23.2N 151.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.1N 153.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 25.1N 154.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 26.4N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 27.6N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 28.8N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 29.8N 156.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 117.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2018 16.6N 117.7W STRONG
00UTC 05.09.2018 16.7N 119.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 17.2N 121.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 17.8N 124.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 18.6N 127.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 19.3N 130.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 20.2N 132.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 21.4N 135.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 22.3N 138.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 23.0N 141.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 23.4N 143.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 24.0N 145.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 24.5N 147.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.9N 33.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2018 13.0N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 13.4N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 14.0N 36.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 14.9N 36.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 16.1N 37.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 17.2N 39.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 18.2N 41.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2018 18.9N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041606

2018-09-04 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 041440 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018

OLIVIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, WITH
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE FORMATION OF A 25 N
MI WIDE EYE AND A SURROUNDING COLD RING OF CLOUD TOPS IN THE
EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
INCREASED TO 90 KT, AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THIS BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED EVEN
THOUGH THE ANALYZED EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES
FROM CIMSS IS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONTINUED SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL ALLOW ONLY ABOUT
12 H OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS
ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL STOP THAT QUICKLY.
BASED ON THIS, THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 100 KT IN 12 H AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND
IT IS POSSIBLE OLIVIA COULD GET STRONGER. AFTER 24 H, THE COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/10. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST
TO INDUCE A WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE

2018-09-04 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 041440
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Olivia has become better organized since the last advisory, with
conventional satellite imagery indicating the formation of a 25 n
mi wide eye and a surrounding cold ring of cloud tops in the
eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have
increased to 90 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this
advisory. This burst of rapid intensification has occurred even
though the analyzed easterly shear in the SHIPS model and analyses
from CIMSS is in the 15-20 kt range.

How much additional intensification will occur is uncertain. The
intensity guidance suggests that continued shear and decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track will allow only about
12 h of additional strengthening, and most of the guidance forecasts
only modest strengthening during this time. However, it is unlikely
that the current rapid intensification will stop that quickly.
Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
of 100 kt in 12 h at the upper edge of the intensity guidance, and
it is possible Olivia could get stronger. After 24 h, the cooler
sea surface temperatures and entrainment of dry air should cause a
gradual weakening even though the shear is forecast to decrease.

The initial motion remains 275/10. As noted previously, a
building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
to induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with increasing
forward speed during the next several days. The model guidance
supports this scenario with a tight clustering, and the new NHC
track forecast is again an update of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.0N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.2N 119.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 17.4N 122.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 18.8N 127.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 20.5N 133.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 22.0N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 23.0N 143.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-04 15:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 041439
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018

...OLIVIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 118.2W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY, AND OLIVIA
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-04 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 041439 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.2N 119.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 122.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.8N 127.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-09-04 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 041439
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.2N 119.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 122.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.8N 127.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 143.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 118.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-04 12:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 040844 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018

...OLIVIA CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...
......................................................................
......
......
......
.....N
....NO
CHANGE
IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 117.2W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND OLIVIA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE TONIGHT, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING COMMENCING
EARLY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

2018-09-04 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 040845 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018

A RECENT SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED A BANDING EYE INNER CORE
STRUCTURE WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE OUTER BANDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0432 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS WAS
USED TO ADJUST THE WIND RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A BLEND
OF THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT A SLIGHT
INITIAL INTENSITY INCREASE TO 70 KT.

OLIVIA HAS ABOUT 24-36 HOURS OR SO REMAINING OVER WARM SSTS WITH
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER WIND CONDITIONS. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, SIMILAR TO THE HCCA AND IVCN
CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEANIC SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS INDICATED THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 275/10 KT. A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST
TO INDUCE A WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED ON THIS SOLUTION, AND THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.9N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 17.2N 120.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 17.7N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 18.4N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 20.1N 131.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

2018-09-04 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 040845
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018

A recent SSMIS overpass indicated a banding eye inner core
structure with improved deep convective outer bands over the
southern semicircle. A 0432 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass was
used to adjust the wind radii for this advisory package. A blend
of the subjective satellite intensity estimates support a slight
initial intensity increase to 70 kt.

Olivia has about 24-36 hours or so remaining over warm SSTs with
marginally favorable upper wind conditions. Therefore strengthening
is forecast for the next day or so, similar to the HCCA and IVCN
consensus models. After that time, The cyclone is expected to
traverse slightly cooler oceanic surface temperatures, and gradual
weakening is indicated through day 5. The NHC forecast is based on
the above consensus models and is similar to the previous advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/10 kt. A
building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
to induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with
increasing forward speed during the next several days. The model
guidance is tightly packed on this solution, and the latest NHC
track forecast is basically just an update of the previous
prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.9N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 17.2N 120.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 17.7N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 18.4N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 20.1N 131.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 21.9N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 23.0N 142.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-04 09:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 040844
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018

...OLIVIA CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...
....................NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 117.2W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND OLIVIA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE TONIGHT, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING COMMENCING
EARLY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

...................
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-04 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 040844 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 117.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 117.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.2N 120.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.4N 125.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.1N 131.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-09-04 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 040844
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 117.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 117.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.2N 120.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.4N 125.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.1N 131.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 21.9N 137.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 142.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-04 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 040405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 22.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2018 0 12.4N 22.2W 1010 20
1200UTC 04.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 40.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2018 0 18.8N 40.1W 991 57
1200UTC 04.09.2018 12 19.5N 42.4W 991 56
0000UTC 05.09.2018 24 20.5N 44.3W 992 55
1200UTC 05.09.2018 36 21.4N 46.7W 999 49
0000UTC 06.09.2018 48 22.4N 48.8W 1003 43
1200UTC 06.09.2018 60 23.6N 50.8W 1003 47
0000UTC 07.09.2018 72 24.5N 52.1W 1002 48
1200UTC 07.09.2018 84 25.0N 53.4W 997 61
0000UTC 08.09.2018 96 25.3N 54.4W 991 62
1200UTC 08.09.2018 108 25.6N 55.6W 985 66
0000UTC 09.09.2018 120 26.1N 56.8W 978 60
1200UTC 09.09.2018 132 26.3N 58.1W 970 67
0000UTC 10.09.2018 144 26.7N 59.7W 968 67

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 83.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2018 0 26.7N 83.4W 1010 37
1200UTC 04.09.2018 12 27.9N 86.5W 1009 34
0000UTC 05.09.2018 24 29.4N 88.2W 1006 40
1200UTC 05.09.2018 36 31.3N 89.9W 1007 22
0000UTC 06.09.2018 48 32.4N 91.6W 1008 23
1200UTC 06.09.2018 60 32.8N 92.8W 1010 15
0000UTC 07.09.2018 72 33.1N 94.5W 1010 14
1200UTC 07.09.2018 84 33.8N 95.2W 1010 16
0000UTC 08.09.2018 96 35.0N 95.5W 1008 12
1200UTC 08.09.2018 108 36.9N 94.5W 1006 15
0000UTC 09.09.2018 120 38.7N 92.6W 1004 16
1200UTC 09.09.2018 132 40.7N 89.3W 1001 34
0000UTC 10.09.2018 144 43.4N 83.9W 1000 40

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 139.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2018 0 19.5N 139.3W 989 50
1200UTC 04.09.2018 12 19.7N 142.5W 993 46
0000UTC 05.09.2018 24 19.4N 144.9W 992 47
1200UTC 05.09.2018 36 19.4N 146.6W 989 52
0000UTC 06.09.2018 48 19.5N 148.1W 989 51
1200UTC 06.09.2018 60 19.9N 149.5W 991 48
0000UTC 07.09.2018 72 20.5N 151.1W 997 42
1200UTC 07.09.2018 84 21.1N 152.6W 1002 35
0000UTC 08.09.2018 96 21.9N 154.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 08.09.2018 108 23.1N 156.1W 1007 31
0000UTC 09.09.2018 120 23.9N 157.5W 1008 32
1200UTC 09.09.2018 132 24.2N 158.7W 1009 25
0000UTC 10.09.2018 144 25.0N 159.1W 1009 24

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 115.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2018 0 16.7N 115.3W 983 57
1200UTC 04.09.2018 12 16.9N 117.4W 967 64
0000UTC 05.09.2018 24 17.0N 119.5W 962 72
1200UTC 05.09.2018 36 17.3N 121.9W 961 69
0000UTC 06.09.2018 48 17.9N 124.4W 970 62
1200UTC 06.09.2018 60 18.6N 127.2W 972 64
0000UTC 07.09.2018 72 19.3N 130.1W 978 59
1200UTC 07.09.2018 84 20.1N 132.9W 986 51
0000UTC 08.09.2018 96 21.1N 135.7W 988 55
1200UTC 08.09.2018 108 21.9N 138.3W 991 49
0000UTC 09.09.2018 120 22.6N 140.8W 993 48
1200UTC 09.09.2018 132 23.1N 143.0W 994 44
0000UTC 10.09.2018 144 23.6N 144.6W 995 45

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.8N 33.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2018 72 13.8N 33.7W 1008 24
1200UTC 07.09.2018 84 14.1N 35.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 08.09.2018 96 14.7N 35.2W 1004 24
1200UTC 08.09.2018 108 15.6N 35.9W 1003 28
0000UTC 09.09.2018 120 16.4N 37.1W 1002 31
1200UTC 09.09.2018 132 17.2N 38.6W 1001 39
0000UTC 10.09.2018 144 17.8N 39.9W 999 43


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040405

2018-09-04 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 040405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 22.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2018 12.4N 22.2W WEAK
12UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 40.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2018 18.8N 40.1W MODERATE
12UTC 04.09.2018 19.5N 42.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 20.5N 44.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 21.4N 46.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2018 22.4N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 23.6N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 24.5N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 25.0N 53.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 25.3N 54.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2018 25.6N 55.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 26.1N 56.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2018 26.3N 58.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2018 26.7N 59.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 83.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2018 26.7N 83.4W WEAK
12UTC 04.09.2018 27.9N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 29.4N 88.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 31.3N 89.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 32.4N 91.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 32.8N 92.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 33.1N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 33.8N 95.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 35.0N 95.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 36.9N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 38.7N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 40.7N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 43.4N 83.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 139.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2018 19.5N 139.3W MODERATE
12UTC 04.09.2018 19.7N 142.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 19.4N 144.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 19.4N 146.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 19.5N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 19.9N 149.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 20.5N 151.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 21.1N 152.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 21.9N 154.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 23.1N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 23.9N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 24.2N 158.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 25.0N 159.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 115.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2018 16.7N 115.3W MODERATE
12UTC 04.09.2018 16.9N 117.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 17.0N 119.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 17.3N 121.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 17.9N 124.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 18.6N 127.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 19.3N 130.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 20.1N 132.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 21.1N 135.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 21.9N 138.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 22.6N 140.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 23.1N 143.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 23.6N 144.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.8N 33.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2018 13.8N 33.7W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2018 14.1N 35.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 14.7N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 15.6N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 16.4N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 17.2N 38.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2018 17.8N 39.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040405

2018-09-04 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 040233 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

OLIVIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH CONVECTION DEEPENING NEAR THE
CENTER, AND THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A NEARLY COMPLETE
EYEWALL UNDERNEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB/SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 65 KT, AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED.

A BIT SURPRISINGLY, OLIVIA HAS INTENSIFIED 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR APPARENTLY HAS NOT BEEN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE STRENGTHENING RATE TO DECREASE, ALTHOUGH SOME
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THE SHEAR WILL DISRUPT THE HURRICANE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER INSPECTING THE ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS, IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHEAR WILL AVOID THE INNER CORE,
SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, LYING NEAR
THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST STILL FEELS A BIT
CONSERVATIVE, GIVEN THE EXPLOSIVE NATURE OF MANY OF THE 2018
EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES. OLIVIA SHOULD MOVE OVER MORE MARGINAL
WATERS IN A FEW DAYS, AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT LONG
RANGE.

A GRADUAL ACCELERATION CONTINUES WITH OLIVIA, NOW MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 8 KT. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN
INCREASING FORWARD PACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED ON THIS SOLUTION, AND THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 16.8N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 16.9N 117.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

2018-09-04 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 040233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Olivia continues to strengthen with convection deepening near the
center, and the latest microwave passes show a nearly complete
eyewall underneath the central dense overcast. Dvorak estimates
from TAFB/SAB are a consensus 65 kt, and that will be the initial
wind speed.

A bit surprisingly, Olivia has intensified 25 kt over the past 24
hours. The current northeasterly shear apparently has not been
enough to cause the strengthening rate to decrease, although some
models are still suggesting the shear will disrupt the hurricane
over the next couple of days. After inspecting the environmental
winds, it appears that most of the shear will avoid the inner core,
so the official forecast is raised from the previous one, lying near
the upper edge of the guidance. This forecast still feels a bit
conservative, given the explosive nature of many of the 2018
eastern Pacific cyclones. Olivia should move over more marginal
waters in a few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated at long
range.

A gradual acceleration continues with Olivia, now moving westward
at about 8 kt. A strengthening ridge over the eastern Pacific
should steer the cyclone westward and west-northwestward at an
increasing forward pace over the next several days. The model
guidance is tightly packed on this solution, and the latest NHC
track forecast is basically just an update of the previous
prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 16.8N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 16.9N 117.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 17.1N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 17.4N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 18.0N 124.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 19.7N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 21.5N 135.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 23.0N 140.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-04 03:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 040233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

...YET ANOTHER HURRICANE FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, THE NINTH OF
THIS BUSY SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 116.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST. OLIVIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE FASTER TOMORROW AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND OLIVIA
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON TUESDAY, WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY CHANGE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-04 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 040233 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 116.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 116.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.9N 117.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.1N 119.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 121.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 124.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-09-04 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 040233
TCMEP2

HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 116.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 116.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.9N 117.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.1N 119.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 121.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 124.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 135.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 116.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-03 22:32

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 114.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 114.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.7N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.8N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.0N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.5N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.0N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.7N 133.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.0N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 115.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 973 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 032035 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

A RAGGED EYE HAS FORMED WITH OLIVIA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE ISN'T VERY PERSISTENT.
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT AN EYEWALL IS MOSTLY FORMED BENEATH THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, ALBEIT RATHER THIN. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO RISE AND SUPPORT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

OLIVIA HAS A FEW DAYS REMAINING OVER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT OR
MODERATE SHEAR IN THE FORECAST. SIMILAR TO A SITUATION WITH HECTOR
ABOUT A MONTH AGO, THE SHEAR MIGHT BE MISDIAGNOSED IN THE SHIPS
MODEL, WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR LIKELY COMING FROM NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT AVOID THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. THUS, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND IF THE INNER CORE BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A POSSIBILITY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT REMAINS BELOW THE
HIGHER CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AIDS. OLIVIA SHOULD MOVE OVER MORE
MARGINAL WATERS IN A FEW DAYS, AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED
AT LONG RANGE.

RECENT FIXES SHOW THAT OLIVIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE
STORM SHOULD MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY SMALL, AND
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD CHANGE AT DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 16.6N 115.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 032035
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

A ragged eye has formed with Olivia during the past several hours,
although the convection on the northern side isn't very persistent.
Microwave data indicate that an eyewall is mostly formed beneath the
central dense overcast, albeit rather thin. Intensity estimates
continue to rise and support 60 kt for this advisory.

Olivia has a few days remaining over warm waters with light or
moderate shear in the forecast. Similar to a situation with Hector
about a month ago, the shear might be misdiagnosed in the SHIPS
model, with the bulk of the shear likely coming from northeasterly
winds that avoid the core of the cyclone. Thus, steady
strengthening is expected, and if the inner core becomes more
established, rapid intensification is a possibility. The intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, but remains below the
higher corrected-consensus aids. Olivia should move over more
marginal waters in a few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated
at long range.

Recent fixes show that Olivia is moving westward at about 7 kt. The
storm should move faster toward the west and eventually toward the
west-northwest during the next several days as it is steered by a
strong ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean. This appears to be a
high-confidence forecast since the model spread is fairly small, and
the only adjustment needed to the previous forecast is a slight
southward change at day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 16.6N 115.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 16.7N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 118.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.0N 120.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 19.0N 128.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 20.7N 133.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 032033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

...OLIVIA APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 115.2W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST BY TOMORROW, AND TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLIVIA SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW, AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 032033 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 115.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 115.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.7N 116.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 118.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.0N 120.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 128.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 032033
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 115.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 115.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.7N 116.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 118.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.0N 120.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 128.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 20.7N 133.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-03 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 031609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 38.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2018 0 18.3N 38.1W 994 49
0000UTC 04.09.2018 12 18.6N 40.6W 991 58
1200UTC 04.09.2018 24 19.1N 42.9W 991 54
0000UTC 05.09.2018 36 19.8N 45.0W 993 56
1200UTC 05.09.2018 48 20.6N 47.5W 1000 45
0000UTC 06.09.2018 60 21.5N 49.9W 1004 41
1200UTC 06.09.2018 72 22.5N 52.2W 1005 43
0000UTC 07.09.2018 84 23.2N 54.4W 1007 39
1200UTC 07.09.2018 96 23.8N 56.3W 1007 36
0000UTC 08.09.2018 108 24.4N 57.9W 1006 36
1200UTC 08.09.2018 120 24.9N 59.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 09.09.2018 132 25.1N 60.1W 1003 36
1200UTC 09.09.2018 144 25.4N 60.9W 1003 40

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 80.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2018 0 24.8N 80.2W 1012 29
0000UTC 04.09.2018 12 26.5N 83.6W 1009 40
1200UTC 04.09.2018 24 27.8N 86.3W 1007 39
0000UTC 05.09.2018 36 29.3N 88.4W 1002 45
1200UTC 05.09.2018 48 31.0N 90.2W 999 25
0000UTC 06.09.2018 60 31.9N 91.7W 1003 29
1200UTC 06.09.2018 72 32.1N 93.0W 1004 20
0000UTC 07.09.2018 84 32.3N 94.7W 1005 18
1200UTC 07.09.2018 96 32.7N 96.1W 1007 22
0000UTC 08.09.2018 108 33.5N 96.8W 1006 18
1200UTC 08.09.2018 120 34.4N 96.5W 1001 17
0000UTC 09.09.2018 132 36.1N 95.4W 998 18
1200UTC 09.09.2018 144 38.0N 94.2W 996 22

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 147.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2018 0 27.0N 147.6W 1014 20
0000UTC 04.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 135.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2018 0 18.9N 135.5W 984 60
0000UTC 04.09.2018 12 19.4N 139.1W 989 51
1200UTC 04.09.2018 24 19.5N 142.2W 993 44
0000UTC 05.09.2018 36 19.4N 144.7W 992 44
1200UTC 05.09.2018 48 19.3N 146.6W 989 53
0000UTC 06.09.2018 60 19.4N 148.1W 989 50
1200UTC 06.09.2018 72 19.5N 149.6W 990 48
0000UTC 07.09.2018 84 20.5N 151.0W 994 45
1200UTC 07.09.2018 96 21.3N 152.4W 998 44
0000UTC 08.09.2018 108 22.2N 154.0W 1002 34
1200UTC 08.09.2018 120 23.2N 155.1W 1005 32
0000UTC 09.09.2018 132 24.6N 155.9W 1005 32
1200UTC 09.09.2018 144 25.6N 156.8W 1007 30

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 114.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2018 0 16.7N 114.6W 996 40
0000UTC 04.09.2018 12 16.8N 115.6W 987 53
1200UTC 04.09.2018 24 16.9N 117.6W 972 64
0000UTC 05.09.2018 36 17.0N 119.8W 962 71
1200UTC 05.09.2018 48 17.5N 122.3W 963 71
0000UTC 06.09.2018 60 18.0N 125.1W 971 61
1200UTC 06.09.2018 72 18.6N 127.8W 974 62
0000UTC 07.09.2018 84 19.5N 130.5W 978 56
1200UTC 07.09.2018 96 20.5N 133.3W 987 50
0000UTC 08.09.2018 108 21.7N 136.1W 990 51
1200UTC 08.09.2018 120 22.6N 138.6W 993 51
0000UTC 09.09.2018 132 23.3N 141.0W 995 46
1200UTC 09.09.2018 144 23.6N 142.9W 996 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.3N 35.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 96 14.3N 35.8W 1009 24
0000UTC 08.09.2018 108 14.8N 36.6W 1007 23
1200UTC 08.09.2018 120 15.1N 37.5W 1006 26
0000UTC 09.09.2018 132 15.3N 38.2W 1005 27
1200UTC 09.09.2018 144 15.6N 38.2W 1003 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031608

2018-09-03 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 031608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 38.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2018 18.3N 38.1W MODERATE
00UTC 04.09.2018 18.6N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 19.1N 42.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 19.8N 45.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 20.6N 47.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2018 21.5N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 22.5N 52.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 23.2N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 23.8N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 24.4N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 24.9N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 25.1N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 25.4N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 80.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2018 24.8N 80.2W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2018 26.5N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 27.8N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 29.3N 88.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 31.0N 90.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 31.9N 91.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 32.1N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 32.3N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 32.7N 96.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 33.5N 96.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 34.4N 96.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2018 36.1N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 38.0N 94.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 147.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2018 27.0N 147.6W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 135.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2018 18.9N 135.5W MODERATE
00UTC 04.09.2018 19.4N 139.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 19.5N 142.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 19.4N 144.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 19.3N 146.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 19.4N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 19.5N 149.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 20.5N 151.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 21.3N 152.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 22.2N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 23.2N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 24.6N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 25.6N 156.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 114.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2018 16.7N 114.6W MODERATE
00UTC 04.09.2018 16.8N 115.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 16.9N 117.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 17.0N 119.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 17.5N 122.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 18.0N 125.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 18.6N 127.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 19.5N 130.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 20.5N 133.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 21.7N 136.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 22.6N 138.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 23.3N 141.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 23.6N 142.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.3N 35.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2018 14.3N 35.8W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2018 14.8N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 15.1N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2018 15.3N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2018 15.6N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031608

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 031440 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 AM MDT MON SEP 03 2018

THERE HAS BEEN A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH OLIVIA OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE CENTER EITHER MOVING INTO OR REFORMING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING
INNER CORE IS PRESENT AS WELL, ALONG WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
CURVED BANDING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 55 KT,
WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST CIMSS-SATCON ESTIMATES, SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO THAT VALUE.

WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE INTENSIFICATION RATES OF THE CYCLONE IN CHECK, ALONG WITH SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SLOW STRENGTHENING SEEMS MOST LIKELY, AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, MOSTLY DUE TO THE
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CORRECTED-
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS EVEN HIGHER, SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD
BE CONSERVATIVE. OLIVIA SHOULD MOVE OVER MORE MARGINAL WATERS IN A
FEW DAYS, AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT LONG RANGE.

OLIVIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT, BUT THIS IS
PRETTY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE RECENT CENTER JUMP. THE STORM SHOULD
MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A
STRONGER CYCLONE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE, SO THE

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 031440
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018

There has been a pretty significant change with Olivia overnight,
with the center either moving into or reforming southward under the
central dense overcast. Microwave data indicate that a developing
inner core is present as well, along with a notable increase in
curved banding. Subjective Dvorak estimates have risen to 55 kt,
which agrees well with the latest CIMSS-SATCON estimates, so the
initial wind speed is raised to that value.

While the cyclone remains over warm water for the next couple of
days, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, which should keep
the intensification rates of the cyclone in check, along with some
mid-level dry air. Slow strengthening seems most likely, and the
official forecast is raised from the previous one, mostly due to the
higher initial intensity. It should be noted that the corrected-
consensus guidance is even higher, so the intensity forecast could
be conservative. Olivia should move over more marginal waters in a
few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated at long range.

Olivia appears to be moving westward at about 6 kt, but this is
pretty uncertain due to the recent center jump. The storm should
move faster toward the west and eventually toward the west-
northwest during the next several days as it encounters a strong
ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Almost all of the guidance is
south of the previous model cycle, which is consistent with a
stronger cyclone feeling the effects of a deep-layer ridge, so the
latest NHC forecast is shifted in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 16.5N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 16.6N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 16.9N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 17.3N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 18.6N 126.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 031440
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 AM MDT MON SEP 03 2018

...OLIVIA INTENSIFYING OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 114.5W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. OLIVIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST BY TOMORROW, AND TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLIVIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

....
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 031439 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 114.5W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 114.5W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.3N 121.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.6N 126.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 031439
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 114.5W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 114.5W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.3N 121.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.6N 126.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 114.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPN31 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 114.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 114.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.5N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.6N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.9N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.3N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.6N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.3N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.0N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 114.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 984 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z. REFER TO
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-03 10:32

WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 113.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 113.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.2N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.3N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.5N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.9N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.1N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.7N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.1N 135.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 114.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 958 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 030845 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 AM MDT MON SEP 03 2018

10 TO 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, NOTED BY THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSIS AND THE DECAY SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL, CONTINUES TO IMPEDE
OLIVIA'S CLOUD PATTERN. A BLEND OF THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND AN EARLIER SATCON ESTIMATE SUPPORT
HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT.

ONLY MODEST SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR. AFTERWARDS, A WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD COMMENCE AS A RESULT OF STRONGER SHEAR, DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. IT'S WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT THE DECAY SHIPS
INDICATES A LONGER, SLOWER INTENSIFICATION PERIOD THROUGH DAY 3,
WHILE THE BETTER PERFORMING IVCN AND NOAA-HCCA INTENSITY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE REFLECT A SHORTER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, ONLY 24 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH DAY 5. SUBSEQUENTLY, THESE
MODELS NO LONGER INDICATE THAT OLIVIA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE, AND
NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A COMPROMISE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS WAS USED AS A BASIS
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 280/6 KT.
OLIVIA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. BY DAY 3, OLIVIA SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 030845
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018

10 to 15 kt of northeasterly shear, noted by the UW-CIMSS shear
analysis and the Decay SHIPS Intensity model, continues to impede
Olivia's cloud pattern. A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier SATCON estimate support
holding the initial intensity at 40 kt.

Only modest short-term strengthening is expected over the next day
or so due to the persistent shear. Afterwards, a weakening trend
should commence as a result of stronger shear, decreasing sea
surface temperatures, and a less than favorable thermodynamic
environment. It's worth noting, however, that the Decay SHIPS
indicates a longer, slower intensification period through day 3,
while the better performing IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus
guidance reflect a shorter period of intensification, only 24 hours,
followed by a weakening trend through day 5. Subsequently, these
models no longer indicate that Olivia will become a hurricane, and
neither does the official forecast. A compromise of the previous
advisory, and a blend of the consensus models was used as a basis
for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt.
Olivia should continue moving westward during the next couple of
days within the mid-level steering flow of a strengthening ridge to
the north. By day 3, Olivia should turn back toward the
west-northwest as it rounds the southwestern periphery of the
ridge. Only a minor adjustment to the south of the previous
advisory was made in accord with the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 17.1N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.2N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 17.3N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 17.9N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 19.1N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 20.7N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 22.1N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 030844
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 AM MDT MON SEP 03 2018

...OLIVIA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 114.2W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER,
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 030844 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.2W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.2W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.2N 115.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.3N 116.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 118.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.1N 124.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.7N 130.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 22.1N 135.6W

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 030844
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.2W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.2W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.2N 115.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.3N 116.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 118.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.1N 124.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.7N 130.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 22.1N 135.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-03 04:32

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 113.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 113.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.3N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.6N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.8N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.0N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.3N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.8N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.3N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 113.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 963 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-03 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 030239 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 02 2018

OLIVIA REMAINS SHEARED, HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCHED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER THIS EVENING. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND 45 KT,
RESPECTIVELY. THOSE ESTIMATES, ALONG WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA,
SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INSISTS ON SOME INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS, BUT IT
IS SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER FORECAST BY SHOWING OLIVIA ATTAINING
HURRICANE STATUS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE
MODELS, WITH THE LATTER BEING MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING
OLIVIA. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE STORM AND THE LOWER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, THE NHC FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE PERIOD COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN.

OLIVIA IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/4 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC
ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER MIDWEEK, OLIVIA SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS

2018-09-03 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 030239
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Olivia remains sheared, however the deep convection has inched a
little closer to the center this evening. The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 45 kt,
respectively. Those estimates, along with the earlier ASCAT data,
support maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt. The tropical
cyclone is expected to remain under the influence of moderate
northeasterly shear during the next several days, however, most of
the intensity guidance insists on some intensification while the
system moves over warm waters. The new NHC intensity forecast is
slightly higher than the previous advisory through 24 hours, but it
is similar to the earlier forecast by showing Olivia attaining
hurricane status in a couple of days. There is a large difference
between the latest statistical guidance and the dynamical hurricane
models, with the latter being much more aggressive in strengthening
Olivia. Given the current structure of the storm and the lower
statistical guidance, the NHC forecast splits the difference and is
close to the consensus guidance. Later in the period cooler waters
and a more stable airmass should cause the system to weaken.

Olivia is moving slowly west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous NHC
advisory. The tropical storm should turn westward as a ridge
builds to the north of the system within the next couple of days.
After midweek, Olivia should turn back toward the west-northwest as
it reaches the western portion of the ridge. There continues to be
some spread in the track guidance, and the NHC forecast is once
again near the model consensus to account for the differences.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.1N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 17.3N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 17.8N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 18.0N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 19.3N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 20.8N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 22.3N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-03 03:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 030238
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 02 2018

...OLIVIA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 113.6W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST. OLIVIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND OLIVIA
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-03 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 030238 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.3N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 117.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.3N 123.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 129.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

2018-09-03 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 030238
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.3N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 117.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.3N 123.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 129.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 135.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 113.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-02 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 022039 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 02 2018

OLIVIA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. RECENT ASCAT DATA REVEALED A LARGE AREA OF 35-40 KT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OLIVIA'S CIRCULATION, AND IS
THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE WILL NOT
ABATE AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUS INDICATED, AND MUCH OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING THAN BEFORE. THE NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED TO BE CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS,
BUT IT IS NOT AS LOW AS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. OLIVIA IS
FOREAST TO REACH COOLER WATERS AROUND DAY 4 AND THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN BY THAT TIME.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300/6 KT.
OLIVIA SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER MIDWEEK, OLIVIA
SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REGARDING HOW MUCH LATITUDE THE SYSTEM
GAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, BUT IT IS NOT AS
FAR NORTH AS THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF THAT TAKES OLIVIA
MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

2018-09-02 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 022039
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Olivia remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center
located to the north and northeast of the large area of deep
convection. Recent ASCAT data revealed a large area of 35-40 kt
winds over the southeastern portion of Olivia's circulation, and is
the basis for the initial wind speed of 40 kt. The global models
suggest that the northeasterly shear over the cyclone will not
abate as quickly as previous indicated, and much of the intensity
guidance shows less strengthening than before. The NHC wind speed
forecast has been lowered to be close to the intensity consensus,
but it is not as low as the statistical guidance in order to
maintain consistency with the previous official forecast. Olivia is
foreast to reach cooler waters around day 4 and the tropical
cyclone should weaken by that time.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.
Olivia should turn westward as a large ridge builds to the north of
the system within the next couple of days. After midweek, Olivia
should turn back toward the west-northwest as it reaches the
western portion of the ridge. The dynamical model guidance
generally agrees with this overall scenario, but there is
cross-track spread regarding how much latitude the system
gains over the next couple of days. The NHC track is near the
various consensus aids and the GFS ensemble mean, but it is not as
far north as the latest run of the ECMWF that takes Olivia
more northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.0N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 20.6N 128.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 22.3N 134.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-02 21:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 022039
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 02 2018

...OLIVIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 113.4W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST. OLIVIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND OLIVIA
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-02 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 022039 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.4W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.4W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 20.6N 128.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

2018-09-02 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 022039
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.4W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.4W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 20.6N 128.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.3N 134.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 113.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-02 21:32

WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 113.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 113.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.4N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.7N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.9N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.0N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.6N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.3N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 113.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 972 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-02 16:32

WTPN31 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 112.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 112.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.7N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.2N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.3N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.5N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 112.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 984 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-02 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 021606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 77.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2018 0 22.6N 77.0W 1014 23
0000UTC 03.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 96C ANALYSED POSITION : 40.5N 177.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP962018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2018 0 40.5N 177.9W 995 36
0000UTC 03.09.2018 12 41.9N 178.4W 1000 28
1200UTC 03.09.2018 24 43.4N 178.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 04.09.2018 36 46.0N 177.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 04.09.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 32.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2018 0 16.6N 32.3W 998 40
0000UTC 03.09.2018 12 17.5N 35.4W 998 43
1200UTC 03.09.2018 24 17.7N 38.3W 999 42
0000UTC 04.09.2018 36 18.0N 40.5W 998 47
1200UTC 04.09.2018 48 18.3N 42.6W 997 45
0000UTC 05.09.2018 60 18.9N 44.7W 1000 47
1200UTC 05.09.2018 72 19.5N 46.8W 1002 43
0000UTC 06.09.2018 84 20.2N 49.0W 1005 37
1200UTC 06.09.2018 96 20.8N 51.3W 1006 41
0000UTC 07.09.2018 108 21.4N 53.5W 1007 38
1200UTC 07.09.2018 120 22.1N 55.8W 1006 40
0000UTC 08.09.2018 132 22.5N 58.1W 1006 38
1200UTC 08.09.2018 144 23.1N 60.2W 1005 38

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 143.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2018 0 25.6N 143.4W 1006 32
0000UTC 03.09.2018 12 27.4N 145.0W 1010 27
1200UTC 03.09.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 128.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2018 0 17.0N 128.2W 978 55
0000UTC 03.09.2018 12 18.0N 131.5W 975 65
1200UTC 03.09.2018 24 18.8N 135.0W 982 63
0000UTC 04.09.2018 36 19.3N 138.4W 989 53
1200UTC 04.09.2018 48 19.4N 141.6W 994 45
0000UTC 05.09.2018 60 19.0N 144.0W 997 40
1200UTC 05.09.2018 72 18.7N 146.0W 997 40
0000UTC 06.09.2018 84 18.6N 147.9W 998 34
1200UTC 06.09.2018 96 18.5N 149.6W 997 41
0000UTC 07.09.2018 108 18.8N 151.5W 1000 35
1200UTC 07.09.2018 120 19.7N 153.3W 1002 38
0000UTC 08.09.2018 132 21.1N 154.7W 1003 37
1200UTC 08.09.2018 144 22.3N 157.4W 1006 34

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 112.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2018 0 16.5N 112.5W 1001 36
0000UTC 03.09.2018 12 17.1N 113.4W 999 36
1200UTC 03.09.2018 24 17.5N 114.6W 990 53
0000UTC 04.09.2018 36 17.4N 116.2W 975 61
1200UTC 04.09.2018 48 17.2N 118.1W 962 68
0000UTC 05.09.2018 60 17.3N 120.2W 960 69
1200UTC 05.09.2018 72 17.8N 122.5W 961 68
0000UTC 06.09.2018 84 18.8N 125.2W 968 62
1200UTC 06.09.2018 96 19.8N 128.0W 971 60
0000UTC 07.09.2018 108 20.9N 130.9W 980 54
1200UTC 07.09.2018 120 21.9N 133.5W 988 50
0000UTC 08.09.2018 132 22.9N 136.0W 992 50
1200UTC 08.09.2018 144 23.7N 138.4W 995 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 28.4N 88.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 60 29.1N 89.1W 1008 34
1200UTC 05.09.2018 72 30.2N 90.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 06.09.2018 84 30.6N 91.9W 1010 18
1200UTC 06.09.2018 96 30.8N 93.2W 1012 16
0000UTC 07.09.2018 108 30.5N 94.4W 1010 16
1200UTC 07.09.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 34.5N 68.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2018 144 35.0N 67.6W 1009 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021606

2018-09-02 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 021606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 77.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2018 22.6N 77.0W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 96C ANALYSED POSITION : 40.5N 177.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP962018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2018 40.5N 177.9W MODERATE
00UTC 03.09.2018 41.9N 178.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2018 43.4N 178.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 46.0N 177.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 32.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.6N 32.3W MODERATE
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.5N 35.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.7N 38.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 18.0N 40.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 18.3N 42.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 18.9N 44.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 19.5N 46.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 20.2N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 20.8N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 21.4N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 22.1N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 22.5N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 23.1N 60.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 143.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2018 25.6N 143.4W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2018 27.4N 145.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 128.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2018 17.0N 128.2W STRONG
00UTC 03.09.2018 18.0N 131.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 18.8N 135.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2018 19.3N 138.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 19.4N 141.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 19.0N 144.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 18.7N 146.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 18.6N 147.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 18.5N 149.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 18.8N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 19.7N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 21.1N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 22.3N 157.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 112.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.5N 112.5W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.1N 113.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.5N 114.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.4N 116.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 17.2N 118.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 17.3N 120.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 17.8N 122.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 18.8N 125.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 19.8N 128.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 20.9N 130.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 21.9N 133.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 22.9N 136.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2018 23.7N 138.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 28.4N 88.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.09.2018 29.1N 89.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 30.2N 90.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 30.6N 91.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 30.8N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 30.5N 94.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 34.5N 68.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2018 35.0N 67.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021606

2018-09-02 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 021436 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 02 2018

OLIVIA IS A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL REMOVED
TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. IF IT WASN'T FOR THE EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER, IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO ASSIGN AN INTENSITY OF 40
KT AT THIS TIME. IN FACT, DVORAK NUMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT SUCH WIND
SPEEDS. FOR CONTINUITY REASONS, HOWEVER, THIS IS THE ASSIGNED
INTENSITY UNTIL NEW DATA BECOME AVAILABLE.

OLIVIA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE TO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
PATTERN SOON. ON THIS BASIS, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR OLIVIA TO
BEGIN STRENGTHENING TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY, AND REACH HURRICANE
STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN.

THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED, MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT
TO ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
FORCE OLIVIA TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED, AND IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TURN TO THE WEST. THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.0N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.7N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.2N 115.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

2018-09-02 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 021436
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Olivia is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center well removed
to the north of the convection. If it wasn't for the earlier
scatterometer, it would be difficult to assign an intensity of 40
kt at this time. In fact, Dvorak numbers do not support such wind
speeds. For continuity reasons, however, this is the assigned
intensity until new data become available.

Olivia is currently embedded in a hostile shear environment, but the
global models forecast a change to a more favorable upper-level wind
pattern soon. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Olivia to
begin strengthening tonight or early Monday, and reach hurricane
status in about 36 hours. This forecast is not different from the
previous one and follows the intensity consensus IVCN.

The circulation continues to be elongated, making it more difficult
to estimate the initial motion. The best estimate is toward the
northwest or 315 degrees at 6 kt. Most of the global models develop
a ridge to the north of the cyclone, and this flow pattern will
force Olivia to turn toward the west-northwest and west with some
increase in forward speed. Track guidance is clustered, and is
fairly consistent with the turn to the west. The NHC forecast
continues to be very close to the corrected consensus HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.0N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.7N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.2N 115.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.3N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 22.0N 132.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-02 15:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 021436
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 02 2018

...OLIVIA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 112.4W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. OLIVIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), BUT A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND OLIVIA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

....
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-02 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 021436 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.7N 113.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 115.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.3N 117.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W

2018-09-02 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 021436
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.7N 113.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 115.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.3N 117.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 22.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 112.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-02 10:32

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 111.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 111.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.6N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.2N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.5N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.6N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.7N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.0N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.5N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 112.2W.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (OLIVIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1053 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-02 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 020851 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 02 2018

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CONVECTION IS STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED, AND
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN IRREGULARLY SHAPED CDO-LIKE
FEATURE WITH LIMITED BANDING. NONETHELESS, A COUPLE OF
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES SHOWED THAT THE CYCLONE HAD WINDS TO AROUND
40 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE
THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SPEED WILL BE
USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOMEWHAT,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS, IVCN. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS
TIME SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND SOME
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING IT.

THE CENTER WAS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED IN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA, BUT
APPEARED TO BE LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS WORKING BEST
TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/8 KT. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OLIVIA SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER, A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A TURN BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF

2018-09-02 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 020851
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018

The tropical cyclone's convection is still not well organized, and
the cloud pattern consists of an irregularly shaped CDO-like
feature with limited banding. Nonetheless, a couple of
scatterometer overpasses showed that the cyclone had winds to around
40 kt over the southern semicircle of the circulation. Therefore
the system is being named, and the aforementioned wind speed will be
used for the advisory intensity. The north-northeasterly shear
that has been affecting the storm is expected to abate somewhat,
which would allow for further strengthening. The official
intensity forecast is in line with the latest numerical model
consensus, IVCN. Some of the models show more rapid strengthening
during the next day or two, but this does not seem likely at this
time since the system is still not very well organized and some
shear is expected to continue affecting it.

The center was somewhat elongated in the scatterometer data, but
appeared to be located a little north of the previous working best
track. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 300/8 kt. A weak
mid-level ridge to the north of Olivia should lead to a slow
west-northwestward to northwestward motion over the next day or two.
Thereafter, a strengthening ridge is likely to cause a turn toward
the west with some increase in forward speed. Late in the forecast
period, the dynamical model consensus indicates a turn back to the
west-northwest. The official track forecast is a little north of
the previous one, mainly due to the recent re-positioning of the
center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.0N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.6N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.2N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.5N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 17.6N 116.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-02 09:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 020850
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 02 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 112.2W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. OLIVIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND OLIVIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-02 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 020850 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.2N 113.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.6N 116.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W

2018-09-02 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 020850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.2N 113.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.6N 116.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-02 04:32

WTPN31 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 111.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 111.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.7N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.2N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.6N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.7N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.8N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.5N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.0N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 111.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1099
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-02 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 020404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 29.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2018 0 15.5N 29.6W 999 37
1200UTC 02.09.2018 12 16.4N 32.3W 998 42
0000UTC 03.09.2018 24 17.3N 34.9W 998 45
1200UTC 03.09.2018 36 17.5N 38.0W 998 44
0000UTC 04.09.2018 48 17.8N 40.2W 997 48
1200UTC 04.09.2018 60 18.1N 42.4W 997 44
0000UTC 05.09.2018 72 18.7N 44.1W 997 51
1200UTC 05.09.2018 84 19.4N 46.0W 998 49
0000UTC 06.09.2018 96 20.3N 47.8W 1001 49
1200UTC 06.09.2018 108 21.1N 49.9W 1005 40
0000UTC 07.09.2018 120 22.0N 52.0W 1006 40
1200UTC 07.09.2018 132 22.2N 54.0W 1005 40
0000UTC 08.09.2018 144 22.5N 56.0W 1004 40

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 23.8N 141.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2018 0 23.8N 141.6W 999 41
1200UTC 02.09.2018 12 25.8N 143.0W 1006 31
0000UTC 03.09.2018 24 27.7N 144.4W 1010 28
1200UTC 03.09.2018 36 29.0N 146.3W 1013 23
0000UTC 04.09.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 125.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2018 0 16.4N 125.4W 980 57
1200UTC 02.09.2018 12 16.7N 128.2W 976 56
0000UTC 03.09.2018 24 17.5N 131.1W 971 64
1200UTC 03.09.2018 36 18.4N 134.3W 977 66
0000UTC 04.09.2018 48 19.2N 137.4W 983 57
1200UTC 04.09.2018 60 19.2N 140.6W 991 48
0000UTC 05.09.2018 72 19.2N 143.0W 993 44
1200UTC 05.09.2018 84 18.9N 145.1W 994 42
0000UTC 06.09.2018 96 19.2N 146.9W 994 45
1200UTC 06.09.2018 108 19.4N 148.6W 995 41
0000UTC 07.09.2018 120 20.1N 150.3W 1000 36
1200UTC 07.09.2018 132 21.3N 152.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 08.09.2018 144 22.5N 153.8W 1004 35

TROPICAL STORM 17E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 111.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2018 0 15.7N 111.1W 1004 28
1200UTC 02.09.2018 12 16.7N 112.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 03.09.2018 24 17.6N 113.2W 1002 34
1200UTC 03.09.2018 36 17.7N 114.4W 998 42
0000UTC 04.09.2018 48 17.8N 116.2W 989 52
1200UTC 04.09.2018 60 17.3N 117.8W 972 61
0000UTC 05.09.2018 72 17.2N 119.5W 971 60
1200UTC 05.09.2018 84 17.6N 121.6W 970 65
0000UTC 06.09.2018 96 18.4N 124.2W 967 65
1200UTC 06.09.2018 108 19.3N 127.2W 969 61
0000UTC 07.09.2018 120 20.2N 130.4W 977 58
1200UTC 07.09.2018 132 21.1N 133.3W 984 53
0000UTC 08.09.2018 144 22.2N 136.1W 989 52

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 27.6N 88.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 72 28.2N 89.3W 1007 35
1200UTC 05.09.2018 84 29.4N 90.5W 1004 38
0000UTC 06.09.2018 96 30.3N 91.4W 1001 32
1200UTC 06.09.2018 108 30.6N 92.8W 1000 28
0000UTC 07.09.2018 120 30.3N 94.2W 1000 28
1200UTC 07.09.2018 132 29.6N 95.4W 998 36
0000UTC 08.09.2018 144 28.9N 96.3W 997 41


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020404

2018-09-02 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 020404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 29.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2018 15.5N 29.6W MODERATE
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 32.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.3N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.5N 38.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.8N 40.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 18.1N 42.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 18.7N 44.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 19.4N 46.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 20.3N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 21.1N 49.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2018 22.0N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 22.2N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 22.5N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 23.8N 141.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2018 23.8N 141.6W MODERATE
12UTC 02.09.2018 25.8N 143.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2018 27.7N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 29.0N 146.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 125.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 125.4W STRONG
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.7N 128.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.5N 131.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2018 18.4N 134.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2018 19.2N 137.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 19.2N 140.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 19.2N 143.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 18.9N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 19.2N 146.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 19.4N 148.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 20.1N 150.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 21.3N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 22.5N 153.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM 17E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 111.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2018 15.7N 111.1W WEAK
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.7N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.6N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.7N 114.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.8N 116.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 17.3N 117.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 17.2N 119.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 17.6N 121.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 18.4N 124.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 19.3N 127.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 20.2N 130.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 21.1N 133.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2018 22.2N 136.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 27.6N 88.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.09.2018 28.2N 89.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 29.4N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 30.3N 91.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 30.6N 92.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 30.3N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 29.6N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2018 28.9N 96.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020404

2018-09-02 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 020231 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS ELONGATED FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE ON
THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN
THOUGH THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
30 KT SINCE THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.
THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT. THE MODELS
INSIST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WHILE IT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTER THAT TIME, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION, AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE IT TO MOVE FASTER AND
TURN TOWARD THE WEST. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN THE SHORT TERM, AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION TURNING ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD POSSIBLY DUE TO THE
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. FOR NOW, THE NHC TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT THE CENTER WILL NOT REFORM, BUT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE
REQUIRED IF THAT DOES OCCUR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO LET UP SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO AT LEAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER,
THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS CYCLE, LEAVING THE

2018-09-02 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 020231
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Satellite data indicate that the cyclone remains elongated from
northeast to southwest with the low-level center estimated to be on
the northeastern side of the main area of deep convection. Even
though the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that the
system could be a tropical storm, the initial wind speed is held at
30 kt since the structure of the depression is not well organized.
This wind speed estimate is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. The models
insist that the cyclone will slow down during the next day or two
while it lies to the south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
After that time, the subtropical ridge is expected to build to the
north of the depression, and that should cause it to move faster and
turn toward the west. Only small changes were made to the previous
forecast track and it remains on the southern side of the guidance
envelope in the short term, as many of the models show the
depression turning abruptly northward possibly due to the
reformation of the center. For now, the NHC track forecast assumes
that the center will not reform, but northward adjustments could be
required if that does occur.

The northeasterly shear that is currently affecting the depression
is expected to let up some during the next couple of days, which
should allow the system to at least gradually strengthen. However,
the intensity models are less aggressive this cycle, leaving the
previous forecast at the upper bound of the guidance envelope at
the longer forecast times. The new NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one, except a little lower at the
longer range to trend toward the latest guidance. The confidence in
the intensity forecast is low because of the run-to-run variability
in the model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.2N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.7N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.6N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 16.7N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 16.8N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-02 03:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 020231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 111.8W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.8
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
(17 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT OR ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-02 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 020231 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 111.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 111.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.8N 119.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

2018-09-02 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 020231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 111.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 111.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.8N 119.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-02 01:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 012050 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 PM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...DEPRESSION GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....E
....EX
...EXP
..EXPE
.EXPEC
EXPECT
XPECTE
PECTED
TO
BECOME
A
TROPICAL
STORM
TONIGHT
OR
EARLY
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
(19 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

2018-09-01 22:32

WTPN31 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 110.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 110.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.3N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.7N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.0N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.2N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.9N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.3N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 110.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1131
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-01 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 012055 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 PM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES AT 1625Z AND 1704Z INDICATED THAT
THE DEPRESSION'S INNER-CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS ELONGATED
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST, WITH A SECOND FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN END OF THE WIND FIELD. THERE WAS ALSO
A FAIRLY LARGE FIELD OF 27-29 KT SURFACE WIND VECTORS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT. VARIOUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
REMAINED UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/10 KT. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24 H OR SO, AND THEN MOVE IT WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE NEW GFS MODEL RUN, WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
FOR 36 H BEFORE TURNING IT BACK WESTWARD. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
KEYED IN ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL NOTED IN THE
ASCAT AND RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA, AND MAKES IT THE PRIMARY
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO REMAIN/DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE STRONGER DEEP
CONVECTION AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY.
THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS MODEL IS BEING DISCOUNTED, BUT IT
HAS STRONGLY SKEWED THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS TRACKS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. AS A RESULT, THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES SOUTH OF
THE CONSENSUS MODEL HCCA, AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK AND A BLEND OF THE MORE WESTERLY HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS.

2018-09-01 21:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 012055
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

ASCAT scatterometer overpasses at 1625Z and 1704Z indicated that
the depression's inner-core wind field remains elongated
northeast-to-southwest, with a second fully exposed low-level swirl
located near the northeastern end of the wind field. There was also
a fairly large field of 27-29 kt surface wind vectors located in the
southern quadrant. Various Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have
remained unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial
intensity is being held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. Most of the
global and regional models take the cyclone west-northwestward for
the next 24 h or so, and then move it westward thereafter. The
exception is the new GFS model run, which takes the system northward
for 36 h before turning it back westward. The GFS appears to have
keyed in on the aforementioned exposed low-level swirl noted in the
ASCAT and recent visible satellite data, and makes it the primary
circulation center. The official forecast track calls for the main
low-level center to remain/develop closer to the stronger deep
convection and strongest low-level winds and associated vorticity.
The more northern track of the GFS model is being discounted, but it
has strongly skewed the various consensus tracks farther to the
north. As a result, the new official forecast track lies south of
the consensus model HCCA, and is close to the previous advisory
track and a blend of the more westerly HWRF and ECMWF models.

Due to the GFS model's more northerly track, the GFS-based shear
computations have a high bias. In contrast, the more southerly ECMWF
model has continued to forecast much weaker shear of 10-15 kt for
the next 72 h, followed by decreasing shear after that. These more
modest shear conditions, combined with very warm SSTs greater than
28.5 deg C, should allow for at least steady strengthening to occur.
The only hindering factor early on remains when the inner-core wind
field contracts down and becomes better defined, which would result
in sooner and more significant intensification to occur than is
indicated by the official forecast. For now, the intensity forecast
remains above the consensus models HCCA and IVCN due to the very low
bias induced by the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.3N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.0N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.2N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 16.3N 118.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 16.9N 122.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 18.3N 127.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-01 21:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 012050
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 PM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...DEPRESSION GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
............EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
(19 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

...........
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-01 21:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 012050
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.3N 111.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.2N 115.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 118.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.9N 122.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 18.3N 127.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-01 19:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 011501 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 AM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM MEXICO...
.....................................................................
.....E
....EX
...EXP
..EXPE
.EXPEC
EXPECT
XPECTE
PECTED
TO
BECOME
A
TROPICAL
STORM
LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 110.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
(15 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

2018-09-01 17:17

WTPN31 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 109.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 109.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.3N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.7N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.2N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.4N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.8N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.0N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 110.0W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1149
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND
021600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-01 17:17

WTPN31 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 109.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 109.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.2N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.6N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.0N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.4N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.6N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.0N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.0N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 109.4W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1178
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-01 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 011606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 27.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2018 0 14.5N 27.7W 1002 33
0000UTC 02.09.2018 12 15.4N 29.7W 1000 36
1200UTC 02.09.2018 24 16.4N 32.4W 999 39
0000UTC 03.09.2018 36 17.2N 34.9W 1001 39
1200UTC 03.09.2018 48 17.7N 38.0W 1001 41
0000UTC 04.09.2018 60 18.2N 40.1W 1000 43
1200UTC 04.09.2018 72 18.6N 42.2W 998 43
0000UTC 05.09.2018 84 19.4N 43.8W 999 49
1200UTC 05.09.2018 96 20.6N 45.3W 999 48
0000UTC 06.09.2018 108 21.8N 46.8W 1001 45
1200UTC 06.09.2018 120 23.1N 48.2W 1003 42
0000UTC 07.09.2018 132 24.1N 49.2W 1002 47
1200UTC 07.09.2018 144 24.8N 50.8W 1002 47

HURRICANE MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 140.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2018 0 22.3N 140.7W 986 58
0000UTC 02.09.2018 12 24.4N 141.6W 998 40
1200UTC 02.09.2018 24 26.4N 142.9W 1006 33
0000UTC 03.09.2018 36 28.1N 144.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 03.09.2018 48 29.3N 145.8W 1013 24
0000UTC 04.09.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 123.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2018 0 16.2N 123.1W 980 55
0000UTC 02.09.2018 12 16.4N 125.2W 979 55
1200UTC 02.09.2018 24 16.9N 127.5W 975 55
0000UTC 03.09.2018 36 18.0N 130.2W 969 67
1200UTC 03.09.2018 48 19.0N 133.1W 974 63
0000UTC 04.09.2018 60 20.0N 136.1W 980 61
1200UTC 04.09.2018 72 20.5N 138.8W 989 50
0000UTC 05.09.2018 84 20.6N 141.1W 994 42
1200UTC 05.09.2018 96 20.7N 142.9W 997 37
0000UTC 06.09.2018 108 20.9N 144.6W 1000 31
1200UTC 06.09.2018 120 21.5N 146.0W 1002 31
0000UTC 07.09.2018 132 22.1N 147.9W 1003 30
1200UTC 07.09.2018 144 23.3N 149.5W 1006 31

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 108.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2018 0 15.3N 108.6W 1006 22
0000UTC 02.09.2018 12 16.3N 109.8W 1004 25
1200UTC 02.09.2018 24 16.4N 112.1W 1004 31
0000UTC 03.09.2018 36 17.4N 112.5W 1001 36
1200UTC 03.09.2018 48 17.8N 114.2W 998 43
0000UTC 04.09.2018 60 17.3N 116.2W 986 54
1200UTC 04.09.2018 72 16.8N 117.4W 973 65
0000UTC 05.09.2018 84 16.9N 119.1W 966 62
1200UTC 05.09.2018 96 17.4N 121.1W 969 62
0000UTC 06.09.2018 108 18.1N 123.5W 961 67
1200UTC 06.09.2018 120 19.1N 126.2W 959 70
0000UTC 07.09.2018 132 20.3N 129.1W 964 69
1200UTC 07.09.2018 144 21.3N 132.1W 976 57

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.6N 93.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 96 28.6N 93.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 06.09.2018 108 28.9N 94.0W 1007 34
1200UTC 06.09.2018 120 28.9N 95.4W 1004 38
0000UTC 07.09.2018 132 28.1N 96.8W 999 39
1200UTC 07.09.2018 144 27.2N 98.4W 994 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.4N 27.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2018 108 15.4N 27.5W 1009 22
1200UTC 06.09.2018 120 16.8N 30.0W 1009 25
0000UTC 07.09.2018 132 17.8N 32.3W 1009 26
1200UTC 07.09.2018 144 18.3N 34.7W 1008 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011606

2018-09-01 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 011606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 27.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2018 14.5N 27.7W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2018 15.4N 29.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 32.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.2N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.7N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 18.2N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 18.6N 42.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 19.4N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 20.6N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 21.8N 46.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 23.1N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 24.1N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 24.8N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 140.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2018 22.3N 140.7W MODERATE
00UTC 02.09.2018 24.4N 141.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 26.4N 142.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2018 28.1N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 29.3N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 123.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2018 16.2N 123.1W MODERATE
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 125.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.9N 127.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 18.0N 130.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2018 19.0N 133.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2018 20.0N 136.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 20.5N 138.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 20.6N 141.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 20.7N 142.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 20.9N 144.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 21.5N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 22.1N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 23.3N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 108.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2018 15.3N 108.6W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.3N 109.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.4N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.8N 114.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.3N 116.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 16.8N 117.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 16.9N 119.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 17.4N 121.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 18.1N 123.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 19.1N 126.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 20.3N 129.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 21.3N 132.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.6N 93.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2018 28.6N 93.1W WEAK
00UTC 06.09.2018 28.9N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 28.9N 95.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 28.1N 96.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2018 27.2N 98.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.4N 27.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2018 15.4N 27.5W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2018 16.8N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 17.8N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2018 18.3N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011606

2018-09-01 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 011502 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 AM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

A 0914Z AMSR MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST, WITH THE ALLEGED CENTER
POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION REMAINS LOOSELY ORGANIZED
UNDERNEATH THE DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE VARIOUS SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/08 KT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS
SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED, THE MODELS REMAIN REMARKABLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
24-36 H, AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO
ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE NHC NEW TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA
AND FSSE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE ECMWF MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR ALONG THE CYCLONE'S TRACK
TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 12 H AND BEYOND. THE COMBINATION
OF THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS AT
LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY HINDERING FACTOR EARLY ON IS
WHEN THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD FINALLY CONTRACTS AND BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED TO ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO BEGIN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA AND IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.9N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

2018-09-01 15:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 011502
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated that the low-level circulation
remains elongated northeast-to-southwest, with the alleged center
positioned northeast of the deepest convection. Although cloud tops
have cooled significant since the previous advisory, microwave
data indicate that the convection remains loosely organized
underneath the dense cirrus canopy. The initial intensity remains
30 kt for this advisory, which is just below the various satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 290/08 kt. Although the center is
somewhat ill-defined, the models remain remarkably in good
agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next
24-36 h, and then turning westward as the system encounters a
strong subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico
across the eastern North Pacific. The NHC new track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the HCCA
and FSSE consensus models.

The ECMWF model is forecasting the shear along the cyclone's track
to decrease to less than 10 kt by 12 h and beyond. The combination
of the low shear and warm waters beneath the cyclone supports at
least steady strengthening. The only hindering factor early on is
when the inner-core wind field finally contracts and becomes better
defined to allow for more significant intensification to begin. The
intensity forecast follows the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.9N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 16.4N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 125.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-01 15:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 011501
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 AM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM MEXICO...
.........EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 110.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
(15 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

........
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-01 15:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 011500
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 110.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 110.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 112.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.4N 116.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 125.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 110.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-01 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 010832 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND GOES-16 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER
DISORGANIZED, AND T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED, THE MAXIMUM WINDS
REMAIN 30 KT. BASED ON THE 00Z SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS, IT MAY BE
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE DEPRESSION BECOMES ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO
START STRENGTHENING. IN FACT, THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS IN
PARTICULAR SHOW THE CENTER JUMPING AROUND OR RE-FORMING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
AFTER 48 HOURS. ONCE THE CYCLONE IS ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE, A
MORE ROBUST INTENSIFICATION PHASE SHOULD OCCUR SINCE IT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE SLOW INITIAL ORGANIZATION PROCESS, THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN DECREASED DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS OR
SO AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER DAY 3, THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
CLOSER TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HCCA MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
285/9 KT, BUT THAT MOTION IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION.
AS NOTED ABOVE, THE CENTER COULD JUMP AROUND OR RE-FORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT OVERALL THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS, SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

2018-09-01 09:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 010832
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Recent microwave data and GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery have
indicated that the depression consists of a broad low-level
circulation with the center exposed to the northeast of the
associated deep convection. Since the system is still rather
disorganized, and T-numbers have not increased, the maximum winds
remain 30 kt. Based on the 00Z suite of global models, it may be
another day or two before the depression becomes organized enough to
start strengthening. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models in
particular show the center jumping around or re-forming during the
next 24 hours, with more significant deepening not occurring until
after 48 hours. Once the cyclone is able to consolidate, a
more robust intensification phase should occur since it will be
located over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment.
To account for the possible slow initial organization process, the
NHC intensity forecast has been decreased during the first 3 days or
so and is a little below the intensity consensus. After day 3, the
official forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and is
closer to the intensity consensus and the HCCA model.

The depression still appears to be moving west-northwestward, or
285/9 kt, but that motion is uncertain given the poor organization.
As noted above, the center could jump around or re-form during the
next 24 hours, but overall the cyclone should move slowly toward the
west-northwest for the next 2 days, south of the subtropical ridge.
After that time, the ridge is expected to strengthen, which should
cause the system to move faster toward the west on days 3 through 5.
Since the model trackers are bouncing around so much during the
first 2 days of the forecast period, the NHC track forecast is not
much different from the previous forecast to maintain continuity,
although it is a little slower to be in line with the latest HCCA
solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.7N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.6N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.0N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 16.6N 115.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 17.0N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-01 09:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 010832
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 109.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.3
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
(13 KM/H). THE DEPRESSION'S CENTER MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY OR RE-FORM
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT STRENGTHENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY SUNDAY. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-01 09:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 010832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.3W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.3W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.6N 111.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 111.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.6N 115.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 17.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-01 04:32

WTPN31 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 108.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 108.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.6N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.1N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.6N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.0N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.4N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.3N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 108.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1212
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-01 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 010234 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 PM MDT FRI AUG 31 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A
LITTLE MORE THAN 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS
DEVELOPED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM NOW QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE
SEVENTEENTH ONE OF THE BUSY 2018 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT, IN AGREEMENT
WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE IT
ONLY RECENTLY FORMED, BUT MY BEST GUESS IS 285/9. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE IT TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AND INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CROSS-TRACK (NORTH-SOUTH) SPREAD. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR,
AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE
THIS WEEKEND. THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH WARM

2018-09-01 03:32

WTPZ42 KNHC 010234
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
900 PM MDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located a
little more than 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
developed organized deep convection and a well-defined center.
Therefore, the system now qualifies as a tropical depression, the
seventeenth one of the busy 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane
season. The center of the system is estimated to be near the
northeastern portion of the deep convection based on recent
microwave data. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement
with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The initial motion of the depression is highly uncertain since it
only recently formed, but my best guess is 285/9. The system is
expected to move a little slower to the west-northwest or northwest
during the next couple of days while it remains to the south of a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the
subtropical ridge is expected to build to the north of the tropical
cyclone, and that should cause it to turn more westward and increase
in forward speed. The models agree on this overall scenario, but
there is a fair amount of cross-track (north-south) spread. The NHC
track forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope
near the various consensus models.

The depression is currently experiencing some northeasterly shear,
and that should limit the strengthening process overnight. However,
the models show the upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable
this weekend. The expected decrease in shear combined with warm
SSTs and a moist environment should allow the system to steadily
strengthen for most of the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the HCCA model in the short term,
but leans heavily on that guidance from 48 hours and beyond. It
should also be noted that the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models all show
this system deepening significantly during the next several days,
which is a good indication that this cyclone will likely become
another significant hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.3N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 16.6N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 18.3N 122.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-01 03:32

WTPZ32 KNHC 010234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
900 PM MDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 108.4W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
(17 KM/H). A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-01 03:32

WTPZ22 KNHC 010233
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.6N 110.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.3N 122.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 108.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI