Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FLORENCE-18
in United States

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2018-09-16 09:31

WTNT41 KNHC 160848
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Florence Discussion Number 68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

Surface observations indicate that there are no longer any
sustained tropical-storm-force winds as the center of Florence has
moved farther inland over South Carolina. Therefore, the system is
being downgraded to a tropical depression at this time. Maximum
winds are estimated to be 30 kt. Continued gradual weakening is
likely, and the numerical guidance suggests that the cyclone
will be disorganized enough to become a remnant low in 36 hours or
so. In 72 hours, global models indicate that the system will
become an extratropical cyclone, with some strengthening due to
baroclinic processes as it moves over the Atlantic in 3-5 days.
This scenario is very similar to that from the previous advisory.

The forward speed of Florence has increased somewhat early this
morning and the motion is now near 280/7 kt. The high pressure
system that has been blocking the forward progress of Florence is
predicted to slide eastward and southeastward during the next day
or so. As a result, over the next couple of days, Florence is
expected to move northwestward, northward, and then
north-northeastward around the periphery of the high. Later in the
forecast period, Florence should accelerate east-northeastward in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar
to the previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus.

This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH,
and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina
into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through
early this week, as Florence continues to move slowly inland. In
addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also
possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central
Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 33.8N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-16 09:31

WTNT31 KNHC 160844
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 81.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River South Carolina to
Surf City North Carolina is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence
was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 81.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an
additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast
track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas
today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S.
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Central and western North Carolina into far southwest Virginia...

An additional 5 to 10 inches, with storm total accumulations of 15
to 20 inches in western North Carolina. These rainfall amounts will
produce catastrophic flash flooding, prolonged significant river
flooding, and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

Southern North Carolina into Northern South Carolina...

An additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. This rainfall will
result in additional flash flooding while also exacerbating the
river flooding. Storm total accumulations of 30 to 40 inches in
southeast North Carolina.

West-central Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of
Charlottesville...

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina
and eastern South Carolina today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-16 09:31

WTNT21 KNHC 160852 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1000 MB

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 81.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLORENCE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FLORENCE CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-16 09:31

WTNT21 KNHC 160843
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 81.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLORENCE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FLORENCE CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-16 06:31

WTNT31 KNHC 160530
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 67A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLORENCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION VERY SOON BUT FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUING OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 80.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall
threat.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 80.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today,
followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast track,
Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas today
and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast while the center moves farther
inland, and Florence is expected to become a tropical depression
this morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
to the east of the center near the coast and over water. A
sustained wind of 35 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 44 mph (82 km/h)
was reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and western North Carolina...an additional 10 to 15
inches, with storm total accumulations up to 20 inches in western
North Carolina and up to 40 inches in southeast North Carolina.
This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding, with an elevated risk for landslides in
western North Carolina.

Northern South Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10
inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South
Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is
still possible today. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few
hours in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over
large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South
Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well
inland.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes remain possible across North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-16 03:31

WTNT41 KNHC 160235
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 67
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

Florence's center continues to trudge slowly westward across South
Carolina, but heavy rainbands are still streaming inland from the
ocean across extreme southeastern North Carolina. The NOS station
at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach in the vicinity of
these rainbands is the lone observing station that has still been
reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and based on the
most recent observations, Florence's maximum winds are estimated to
be 35 kt.

Florence is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within the
next 6-12 hours, with the global model fields showing winds
decreasing below 35 kt near the coast very soon. Continued
weakening is anticipated while Florence moves farther inland, and
it is likely to become a remnant low in about 36 hours when its
circulation becomes less defined. Florence is then expected to
become a strengthening extratropical low between days 3 and 5 when
it exits the Northeast U.S. coast and moves out to sea.

The initial motion is still very slow toward the west, or 275/3 kt.
A mid-level ridge across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes is
currently blocking Florence from making much headway, but that
feature is expected to slide eastward to the western Atlantic
during the next 24 hours. This should allow Florence to recurve
and accelerate across the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S.
during the next 3 days, and then accelerate further toward the
east-northeast over the Atlantic Ocean on days 4 and 5. The new
NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and
is close to the various model consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina
into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through
early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to
the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in
the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across
western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within
the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions
of South Carolina and North Carolina overnight.

3. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 33.7N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 16/1200Z 34.3N 81.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0000Z 35.8N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 39.2N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 41.5N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0000Z 43.0N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0000Z 45.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-16 03:31

WTNT31 KNHC 160234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 67
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO DELUGE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 80.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall
threat.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 80.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an
additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast
track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas on
Sunday and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S.
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the
center moves farther inland, and Florence is expected to become a
tropical depression early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
to the east of the center near the coast and over water. Within
the past hour or so, a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a
gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) was reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in
Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. A wind gust to 49 mph (79
km/h) was recently reported near Chester, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and western North Carolina...an additional 10 to 15
inches, with storm total accumulations up to 20 inches in western
North Carolina and up to 40 inches in southeast North Carolina.
This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding, with an elevated risk for landslides in
western North Carolina.

Northern South Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10
inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South
Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is
still possible through Sunday. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue overnight in portions
of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes remain possible across North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-16 03:31

WTNT21 KNHC 160233
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 67
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 80.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 80.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 80.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.3N 81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.8N 83.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 39.2N 81.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 41.5N 71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 43.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 45.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-16 00:31

WTNT31 KNHC 152339
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 66A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...CENTER OF FLORENCE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 80.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall
threat.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located by NOAA Doppler radars near latitude 33.6 North, longitude
80.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h),
and a slow westward motion is expected to continue through tonight.
A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on
Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio
Valley by Monday.

Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain
near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly to the northeast and
east of the center in heavy rainbands over water. Gradual weakening
is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next
couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight or by Sunday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
mainly to the east of the center near the coast and over water.
Within the past hour or two, a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h)
with a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h) was reported at the Johnny Mercer
Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. A wind gust to 45 mph
(72 km/h) was recently reported near Hartsville, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South
Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is
still possible through Sunday. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast
South Carolina...an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals
between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas
south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and
southwestern Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue overnight in portions
of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-15 21:31

WTNT41 KNHC 152052
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

Florence's center has continued its slow...and I do mean s-l-o-w...
westward trek across eastern South Carolina, with little change in
the overall structure of the wind field both overland and over
water. NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar data, surface
observations, and a 1527Z ASCAT pass indicate that Florence is
still producing a significant fetch of tropical storm force winds
within and adjacent to the the two bands of convection that are
currently located between the Cape Fear/Wilmington area and Bogue
Inlet, North Carolina. The ASCAT pass contained numerous 40-45 kt
wind vectors, and the NOAA NOS observing site at Johnny Mercer Pier
in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, has been reporting sustained
winds of 38-41 kt and gusts to 46-48 kt during the past few hours
during the passage of light to moderate rain showers. Therefore, the
initial intensity is being maintained at a conservative 40 kt for
this advisory. The estimated central pressure of 997 mb is based on
nearby surface observations across eastern South Carolina.

The initial motion remains 270/02 kt. The new 12Z model guidance
remains in excellent agreement on a mid-level ridge currently to the
northwest and north of Florence moving steadily eastward during the
next 48 hours, which will keep the broad cyclone moving slowly
westward to west-northwestward during that time. By 48 hours and
beyond, the ridge is forecast to continue to shift eastward to near
the northeast U.S. coast and weaken, which will allow Florence and
its remnant circulation to move slowly northward into the
mid-latitude westerlies by Tuesday. By days 3-5, the global models
diverge on where and how fast Florence's then extratropical
circulation moves. Due to the significant spread in the guidance,
the official forecast track lies close to the consensus model
TCVA/TVCN and the previous advisory track forecast.

Florence's inner-core convection and wind field will steadily weaken
throughout the next 48 hours or so. However, the outer wind
field and an associated band of deep convection in the eastern
semicircle should continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds
for another 12 hours or so over water and near the coast, with
occasional strong wind gusts occurring over land. The official
intensity forecast is close to an average of the Decay-SHIPS and
LGEM, and the IVCN consensus intensity model guidance through 72
hours, and then follows a blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE
consensus models at 96 and 120 hours when the post-tropical cyclone
moves back over water and strengthens some due to baroclinic
processes.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will continue to subside
tonight and Sunday, torrential rainfall will continue to be a
serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence. More than two-
and-a-half feet of rain has already fallen across portions of
southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to come, which
will cause disastrous flooding that will spread farther inland
through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina
into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through
early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the
flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the
higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across
western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.

2. Water levels along the coast will gradually subside through
Sunday.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within
the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions
of South Carolina and North Carolina today.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 33.6N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 16/0600Z 33.9N 80.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/1800Z 35.1N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 37.0N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 38.8N 82.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 41.4N 74.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 43.3N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-15 21:31

WTNT31 KNHC 152042
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...CENTER OF FLORENCE CONTINUES ITS SLOW WESTWARD TREK ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Surf
City, North Carolina. All Storm Surge Warnings have been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall
threat.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located by NOAA Doppler radars, satellites, and surface observations
near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.9 West. Florence is moving
toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow westward motion is
expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest
and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn
northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday.

Radar data, satellite-derived winds, and surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts, mainly to the northeast and east of the center in
heavy rainbands over water. Gradual weakening is forecast while
Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust
to 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier
in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South
Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is
still possible through Sunday. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast
South Carolina...an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals
between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas
south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and
southwestern Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

A preliminary report from a cooperative observer near Swansboro,
North Carolina, indicates that more than 30 inches of rain has
fallen so far. That rainfall total breaks the tropical cyclone
rainfall record of 24.06 inches for North Carolina set during
Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of
the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-15 21:31

WTNT21 KNHC 152041
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 66
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF SURF
CITY...NORTH CAROLINA. ALL STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.9N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 83.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 82.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 41.4N 74.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.3N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-15 18:31

WTNT31 KNHC 151752
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 65A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...CENTER OF FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.8 West. Florence is
moving slowly toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a slow
westward motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward
the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is
forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday.

Radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly to the
east of the center in heavy rainbands over water. Gradual weakening
is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next
couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust
to 49 mph (79 km/h) was recently reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier
in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast
South Carolina...an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals
between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas
south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and
southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

A preliminary report from a cooperative observer near Swansboro,
North Carolina, indicates that more than 30 inches of rain has
fallen so far. That rainfall total breaks the tropical cyclone
rainfall record of 24.06 inches for North Carolina set during
Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of
the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina northeastern South Carolina today through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-15 15:31

WTNT41 KNHC 151447
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

Florence continues to creep slowly westward and weaken across
eastern South Carolina. NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar data
indicate strong winds near 60 kt still exist between 3000-10000 ft
within intense rainbands situated between the Cape Fear/Wilmington
area and Bogue Inlet, North Carolina. Although those velocity values
would typically correlate to 50-kt surface winds, those winds appear
to be associated with small mesoscale circulations and possible
supercell thunderstorms, and not the larger tangential wind field.
In contrast, surface observations during the past couple of hours
have only shown sustained winds of around 40 kt, so that is the
intensity used for this advisory. The estimated central pressure
of 995 mb is based on nearby surface observations across eastern
South Carolina.

Radar data and surface observations indicate that Florence has
turned more westward, and has slowed down even more, and the initial
motion estimate is now 270/02 kt. The models remain in very good
agreement that a mid-level ridge currently centered over the upper
Midwest will slide eastward across the lower Great Lakes to near the
northeastern U.S. during the next 48 hours. This feature is
expected to steer Florence and its remnants in a general westward
motion for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Monday. The ridge will continue to shift eastward and
weaken, allowing Florence's circulation to get caught up in the
faster mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate toward the northeast
on day 3 and toward the east-northeast on days 4 and 5 as an
extratropical low pressure system. The new NHC track is similar to
the previous advisory track, and lies near the consensus model
TCVA/TVCN.

Florence's inner-core convection and wind field will continue to
weaken throughout the next 72 hours or so. However, the outer wind
field and an associated band of deep convection in the eastern
semicircle will likely produce sustained tropical-storm-force winds
for another 12 hours or so, with some high gusts continuing until
the band moves inland by late Sunday as per the latest the latest
NOAA HRRR and other mesoscale model runs. More importantly,
continued heavy rains will be produced by this band of convection,
which will exacerbate the already catastrophic flooding that is
occurring across much of southeastern North Carolina. The official
intensity forecast closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model guidance
and the intensity model IVCN through 72 hours, and then follows a
blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models on days 4 and 5
when the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to strengthen due to
baroclinic processes after moving over the relatively warm waters of
the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside today,
especially after the midday high-tide period ends, extremely heavy
rainfall will continue to be a serious hazard associated with
slow-moving Florence. More than two feet of rain has already fallen
across portions of southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is
still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread
inland through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of the
North Carolina coast through today, and also along the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and
freshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels.
Dangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast
coast of South Carolina coast today.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina
into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through
early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the
flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the
higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across
western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within
the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions
of South Carolina and North Carolina today.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 33.6N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 16/0000Z 33.6N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/1200Z 34.4N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0000Z 36.0N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 38.0N 82.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 41.3N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 44.3N 63.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 48.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-15 15:31

WTNT31 KNHC 151440
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...FLORENCE CRAWLING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of South
Santee River and north of Cape Lookout.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.6 West. Florence is
moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow
westward motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward
the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is
forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday.

Radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts,
mainly to the east of the center in heavy rainbands over water.
Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland
during the next couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust
to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier
in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 38 mph
(61 km/h) with a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported by
a NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast
South Carolina...an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals
between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas
south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and
southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

A preliminary report from a cooperative observer near Swansboro,
North Carolina, indicates that more than 30 inches of rain has
fallen so far. In Newport, North Carolina, more than 24 inches of
rainfall has been measured.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of
the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina northeastern South Carolina today through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-15 15:31

WTNT21 KNHC 151438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 65
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AND NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.6N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.4N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.0N 82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.0N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 41.3N 76.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 44.3N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-15 12:31

WTNT31 KNHC 151151
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 64A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow westward
motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is
forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday.

Radar data continue to indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts in heavy rainbands
over water. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves
farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust
to 51 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier
in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 43 mph
(69 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported by
NOAA Buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast
South Carolina...an additional 10 to 15 inches, with storm totals
between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas
south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and
southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

Newport, North Carolina reported a rainfall total of almost 24
inches as of midnight Saturday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of
the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-15 09:31

WTNT41 KNHC 150851
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

Florence is slowly weakening while its center remains inland over
extreme eastern South Carolina. However, WSR-88D Doppler radar
still shows some intense bands of convection over the eastern
portion of the circulation, and these bands have been training over
the coast of North Carolina overnight. Based on current Doppler
velocities of 55-60 kt at around 5500 ft, the current intensity is
set at 45 kt. The system should continue to weaken as it moves
farther inland today, and it is anticipated that Florence will
become a tropical depression tonight. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through
around day 3. By days 4 and 5, the post-tropical cyclone is
forecast to strengthen somewhat due to baroclinic processes after
moving off the New England coast and passing near southern Atlantic
Canada.

Radar and satellite fixes indicate that Florence continues its
west-southwestward motion at around 255/4 kt. A mid-level high
pressure area to the northwest of Florence is forecast to shift to
the north, northeast, and east of the cyclone over the next couple
of days. As a result, Florence should turn northwestward and
northward, and then north-northeastward through 72 hours. Late
in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate
east-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official
forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one at days 4 and 5
but is in good agreement with the latest global model runs.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside
today, extremely heavy rainfall will continue to be a serious
hazard associated with slow-moving Florence. More than a foot of
rain has already fallen across portions of southeastern North
Carolina, and more rain is still to come, which will cause
disastrous flooding that will spread inland through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of
the North Carolina coast through today, and also along the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and
freshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels.
Dangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast
coast of South Carolina coast today.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the
Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western
North Carolina into west-central Virginia and far eastern West
Virginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland.
In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are
also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central
Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within
the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions
of South Carolina and North Carolina today.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 33.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 33.6N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/0600Z 33.9N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/1800Z 35.1N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0600Z 37.0N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 40.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z 43.5N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 47.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-15 09:31

WTNT31 KNHC 150849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...FLORENCE SLOWLY WEAKENING JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
BUT CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and a turn
toward the west and northwest is expected today and Sunday.
Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by
Monday.

Radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased
to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual
weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the
next couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical
depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust
to 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently reported at Mercer Pier, North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast
South Carolina...an additional 10 to 15 inches, with storm totals
between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas
south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and
southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

Newport, North Carolina reported a rainfall total of almost 24
inches as of midnight Saturday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of
the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-15 09:31

WTNT21 KNHC 150848
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.5W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.5W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.6N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.9N 81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 82.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 40.5N 80.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 43.5N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-15 06:31

WTNT31 KNHC 150540
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 63A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...FLORENCE JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 79.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located over extreme eastern South Carolina near latitude 33.7
North, longitude 79.3 West. Florence is moving toward the
west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through this morning. Florence is forecast to turn
westward and then northward through the Carolinas and the Ohio
Valley by Monday.

Radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening
is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next
couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression
by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust
to 50 mph (80 km/h) was recently reported at Mercer Pier, North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...4-7 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Newport, North Carolina reported a rainfall total of almost 24
inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through today
in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large
portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South
Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well
inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-15 03:31

WTNT41 KNHC 150242
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Although we lost data from the Wilmington, North Carolina,
WSR-88D radar several hours ago, the radars from Raleigh and
Columbia have clearly shown Florence's center has moved into extreme
eastern South Carolina. Reflectivities around the eye have been
decreasing, but there are still some strong spiral bands moving from
southeast to northwest across portions of southeastern North
Carolina. Maximum Doppler velocities are 65-70 kt from 5000-7000
feet, and on this basis Florence's maximum surface winds are
estimated to be 55 kt.

Radar fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-southwestward
and has an initial motion of 255/4 kt. A mid-level high centered
near Iowa and Missouri is expected to slide eastward to the north
of Florence over the next 48 hours, which should cause the storm to
maintain a slow motion and gradually turn toward the west and
northwest over the Carolinas. For this period, the new official
forecast track has been shifted a bit southward to follow an
overall trend in the model guidance, but this isn't surprising
given what some of the models were showing last night. After 48
hours, Florence is expected to get picked up by the mid-latitude
westerlies, accelerating north and northeastward to the western
Atlantic by day 5. The NHC track forecast is fairly close to the
TVCN multi-model consensus and just a little south of the previous
forecast beyond 72 hours.

Florence's winds should continue to slowly decay as the center
ambles farther inland, but enough of the circulation should remain
over water to allow the cyclone to remain as a tropical storm for
the next 24 hours or so. This thinking follows the global model
fields of the GFS and ECMWF models. After 24 hours, most of
Florence's circulation should be inland, allowing the cyclone to
weaken to a tropical depression and eventually degenerate into a
remnant low over the Ohio Valley by day 3. The remnant low is then
likely to become an extratropical low by day 4, and it forecast to
begin producing gale-force winds well east of New England to the
south of Atlantic Canada.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside
tonight and Saturday, it cannot be emphasized enough that another
serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence will continue
to be extremely heavy rainfall. More than a foot of rain has
already fallen across portions of southeastern North Carolina, and
more rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding
that will spread inland through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of
the North Carolina coast through tonight, and also along the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and
freshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels.
Dangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast
coast of South Carolina coast tonight.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the
Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western
North Carolina into southwest Virginia through early next week, as
Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and
flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain
of the southern and central Appalachians across western North
Carolina into southwest Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within
the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions
of South Carolina and North Carolina through Saturday.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 33.8N 79.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/1200Z 33.7N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/1200Z 34.4N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0000Z 35.9N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0000Z 39.3N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 41.0N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 43.5N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-15 03:31

WTNT31 KNHC 150241
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...CENTER OF FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER EXTREME
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 79.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been
discontinued north of Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located over extreme eastern South Carolina near latitude 33.8
North, longitude 79.1 West. Florence is moving toward the
west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through early Saturday. Florence is forecast to turn
westward and then northward through the Carolinas and to the Ohio
Valley by Monday.

Radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to
near near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is
forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple
of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by
Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently
reported at Lumberton, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at
Florence, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...4-7 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday
in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large
portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South
Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well
inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-15 03:31

WTNT21 KNHC 150240
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET... NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 79.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 79.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.7N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.4N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.9N 83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 39.3N 81.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 41.0N 74.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 43.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-15 00:31

WTNT31 KNHC 142339
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 62A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE'S CENTER MOVES INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Salvo North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 33.9 North, longitude
78.8 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move
farther inland across extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and
Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the
western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight. Significant weakening
is forecast over the weekend and into early next week while Florence
moves farther inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. Within the past hour or two, a sustained wind of
55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) were reported at
the National Ocean Service station at Johnny Mercer Pier in
Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 975 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft
Cape Fear NC to Salvo NC...3-5 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at
several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday
morning in portions of the warning area along the coast and also
over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern
South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well
inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through tonight, mainly near southeast coastal areas after dark.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-14 21:31

WTNT41 KNHC 142055
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Florence's satellite appearance continues to be quite impressive
with well-established outflow and a nearly symmetrical cloud
pattern. In radar imagery, however, the inner-core convection has
continued to weaken and the echoes are now more stratiform in
nature, while outer banding remains rather vigorous, especially
south of Cape Lookout and Morehead City, North Carolina. An eye is
no longer evident, and the pressure has continued to rise to a
now estimated to be 972 mb based on nearby surface observations. Air
Force Reserve aircraft data, NOAA Doppler weather radar velocity
data from Wilmington, and nearby surface observations indicate that
Florence's intensity has decreased to 60 kt, tropical storm status.

Florence has turned westward and the motion estimate is now 270/03
kt. The new 1200Z global and regional model guidance is in good
agreement on Florence moving slowly in a general westward direction
for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a northward motion on day 3
as the system moves around the western periphery of a narrow
subtropical ridge. On days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn
northeastward and accelerate ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough and frontal system, and emerge off the northeast U.S. coast
as an extratropical low. The new official forecast track is very
similar to the previous advisory, and is lies near the northern
and eastern edge of model guidance envelope, is closer to the
TVCA/TVCN consensus models.

Florence is expected to only slowly weaken overnight due to its
proximity to the warm Atlantic where convective bands are expected
to continue to develop and propagate inland in the eastern and
southern portion of the circulation, which will act to bring down
some of the stronger winds aloft. It is worth noting that the last
reconnaissance pass indicated 700-mb flight-level winds of 77 kt
just east of Charleston, South Carolina, so it won't take much
convection to bring down some of those stronger winds to the
surface as gusts. More rapid weakening is forecast over the weekend
as Florence moves westward across the higher terrain of central
and northwestern South Carolina. The official intensity forecast
follows the weakening trend of the previous advisory, and is similar
to an average of the GFS- and ECMWF-based Decay SHIPS models.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside
tonight and Saturday, it cannot be emphasized enough that another
serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence will continue
to be extremely heavy rainfall. More than 16 inches of rain has
already fallen in many areas across southeastern North Carolina, and
more rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding
that will spread inland through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of
the North Carolina coast through tonight, and also along the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and
freshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels.
Dangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast
coast of South Carolina coast tonight.

2: Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the
Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western
North Carolina into southwest Virginia through early next week, as
Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and
flooding threat, mudslides are also possible in the higher terrain
of the southern and central Appalachians across western North
Carolina into southwest Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within
the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions
of South Carolina and North Carolina.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 34.0N 78.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1800Z 33.9N 80.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0600Z 34.4N 81.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1800Z 35.5N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 38.5N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 41.5N 76.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/1800Z 44.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 21:31

WTNT31 KNHC 142039
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN
FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Myrtle
Beach, South Carolina, and north of Salvo, North Carolina,
including Albemarle Sound.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Cape
Hatteras, including Albemarle Sound.

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Salvo North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move farther inland
across extreme southeastern North Carolina this evening, and across
extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and Saturday. Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight. Significant weakening
is forecast over the weekend and into early next week while Florence
moves farther inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and gust to
to 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean
Service station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft
Cape Fear NC to Salvo NC...3-5 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at
several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday
morning in portions of the warning area along the coast and also
over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern
South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well
inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through tonight, mainly near southeast coastal areas after dark.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 21:31

WTNT21 KNHC 142038
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 62
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF MYRTLE
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH OF SALVO NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE SOUND.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SALVO NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.6W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.6W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.9N 80.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.4N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.5N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.5N 82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 41.5N 76.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 44.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 78.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-14 20:31

WTNT61 KNHC 141955
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...400 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of Hurricane Florence has continued to move slowly
westward toward the North Carolina-South Carolina border.

Amateur radio operators have reported a recent wind gust of 76 mph
(122 km/h) in Atlantic Beach, North Carolina. A buoy operated by
the CORMP program east of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina recently
reported a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). Surface observations
indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 971 mb (28.67
inches).

The radar presentation of Florence has weakened as the center has
moved inland, so this will be the last hourly tropical cyclone
position update issued on Florence. Public advisories will be
issued every three hours until the system weakens below tropical
storm strength.


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-14 19:31

WTNT61 KNHC 141856
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
300 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of Hurricane Florence has continued to move slowly
westward toward the North Carolina-South Carolina border.

The Weatherflow station at Federal Point, North Carolina, recently
reported sustained winds of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a wind gust of
72 mph (116 km/h). Surface observations indicate that the central
pressure has risen to near 970 mb (28.64 inches).

Heavy rain continues over eastern North Carolina. The National
Weather Service Forecast Office in Morehead City has measured 15.56
inches of rainfall thus far.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...65 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 35 MI...65 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-14 18:31

WTNT31 KNHC 141750
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 61A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Bogue Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* Bogue Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.4 West. Florence is
now moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected today through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move farther inland
across extreme southeastern North Carolina today, and across extreme
eastern South Carolina tonight and Saturday. Florence will then
move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts, mainly over water. Gradual weakening is forecast
later today and tonight. Significant weakening is expected over the
weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther
inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170
miles (280 km). A wind gust to 66 mph (106 km/h) was recently
reported at the National Ocean Service station in Wrightsville
Beach, and a 75 mph (121 km/h) was recently reported at a
Weatherflow site just north of Cape Fear at Federal Point. Farther
inland across North Carolina, a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was
recently at the Fayetteville airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 968 mb (28.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at
several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the
hurricane warning area near the coast in extreme southeastern
Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over large
portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South
Carolina.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 17:32

WTNT61 KNHC 141658
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...FLORENCE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of Hurricane Florence has continued to move slowly
westward toward the North Carolina-South Carolina border.

Doppler radar data along with wind data from an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Florence's maximum
sustained winds have decreased to 75 mph (120 km/h). Nearby surface
observations indicate that the pressure has risen to 968 mb (28.58
inches).

Heavy rain has been occurring in and around Oriental, North
Carolina, where 20.37 inches of rainfall has been measured thus far.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 35 MI...65 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 16:32

WTNT61 KNHC 141612 CCA
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Corrected direction of motion in summary block.

...FLORENCE WOBBLING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of Hurricane Florence has turned back toward west.
An erratic motion between westward and west-southwestward is likely
today.

During the past hour, a station operated by Weatherflow at Federal
Point, North Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h)
and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h), a sustained wind of 53 mph (85
km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) was observed at Mercer Pier in
Wrightsville Beach, and a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a
gust to 75 mph (121 km/h) was measured at the Wilmington offshore
buoy. In addition, an Amateur Radio operator in Oak Island near
Cape Fear, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 68
mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h).

Some Hurricane Florence heavy rainfall reports received thus far --

18.53 inches Oriental, NC
14.07 inches Surf City, NC
13.81 inches WFO Morehead City, NC
13.07 inches Jacksonville, NC

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 16:32

WTNT61 KNHC 141559
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE WOBBLING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of Hurricane Florence has turned back toward west.
An erratic motion between westward and west-southwestward is likely
today.

During the past hour, a station operated by Weatherflow at Federal
Point, North Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h)
and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h), a sustained wind of 53 mph (85
km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) was observed at Mercer Pier in
Wrightsville Beach, and a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a
gust to 75 mph (121 km/h) was measured at the Wilmington offshore
buoy. In addition, an Amateur Radio operator in Oak Island near
Cape Fear, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 68
mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h).

Some Hurricane Florence heavy rainfall reports received thus far --

18.53 inches Oriental, NC
14.07 inches Surf City, NC
13.81 inches WFO Morehead City, NC
13.07 inches Jacksonville, NC

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 15:33

WTNT41 KNHC 141449
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Florence's satellite signature remains very impressive even though
the eye is now located just inland over southeastern North Carolina
near Cape Fear. However, land interaction has taken its toll on the
inner-core circulation, and the previously well-defined eye in
radar imagery has shrunk and become filled with rain echoes. The
advisory intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on earlier
reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA
Doppler weather radar velocity data from Wilmington and Morehead
City, and nearby surface observations. The central pressure of 958
mb is based on observations from a NOAA NOS site in Wrightsville
Beach and a Weatherflow private station in Federal Point. Another
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be sampling the portion of
Florence's circulation over water during the next few hours.

Florence has turned west-southwestward and the motion estimate
is now 245/03 kt. Florence is expected to remain embedded within a
weak steering flow regime within a weakness in the subtropical
ridge, resulting in a slow westward motion for the next 36-48 hours
across South Carolina. As a shortwave trough currently located over
the eastern Great Lakes to Maryland moves eastward away from the
region over the next 2 days, the ridge will begin to build back in
and shift eastward, allowing Florence or its remnants to gradually
turn northward over the weekend, and then move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies as an extratropical low. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to
the middle of the model guidance envelope.

Wind data from the earlier aircraft mission, along with Doppler
radar velocity data and surface observations, indicate that Florence
has weakened. Additional slow weakening is expected today as the
center of Florence moves farther inland, with more rapid weakening
forecast over the weekend as Florence moves westward across South
Carolina. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous advisory, and closely follows the trend of Decay SHIPS
model.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside later
today, it cannot be emphasized enough that another serious hazard
associated with slow-moving Florence is and will be extremely heavy
rainfall. More than 14 inches of rain has already fallen in many
areas across southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to
come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland
through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along
portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through
today and tonight. This surge is also likely along portions of the
South Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is
expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down while it moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of
the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of
the South Carolina coast later today. Strong winds could also
spread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next
couple of days.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.0N 78.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0000Z 33.9N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z 33.9N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1200Z 34.7N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1200Z 37.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 41.2N 78.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 44.4N 68.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 15:33

WTNT31 KNHC 141440
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE JUST INLAND NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Duck,
North Carolina, including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point
Comfort.

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Duck, North Carolina, south to Bogue Inlet, including the
Albemarle Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Bogue Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* Bogue Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move
further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and
extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight.
Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early
next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was recently
reported at the National Ocean Service station in Wrightsville
Beach, and a 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at a
Weatherflow site just north of Cape Fear at Federal Point.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 14 inches thus far have been reported at
several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 15:33

WTNT21 KNHC 141439
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 61
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF DUCK
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM DUCK NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH TO BOGUE INLET...INCLUDING THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 140SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 77.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.9N 78.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.9N 80.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.7N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 37.7N 83.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 41.2N 78.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 44.4N 68.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 78.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-14 14:33

WTNT61 KNHC 141358
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE STILL WOBBLING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence has been wobbling
southwestward near the coast of southeastern North Carolina.

A buoy operated by the CORMP program southeast of Wilmington, North
Carolina recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). A
station operated by Weatherflow at Federal Point, North Carolina,
recently reported a pressure of 961.0 mb (28.38 in).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Beven

2018-09-14 13:32

WTNT61 KNHC 141300
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
900 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WOBBLING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence has been wobbling
southwestward near the coast of southwestern North Carolina.

A wind gust to 99 mph (159 km/h) was recently reported at a
Weatherflow private observing site at Federal Point.

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 13:32

WTNT31 KNHC 141224 CCB
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 60A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Corrected direction from Myrtle Beach in Summary section

Corrected movement from WNW to W in Summary section

...FLORENCE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.miles/hr

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface
observations to be just inland near latitude 34.1 North, longitude
77.9 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move
further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and
extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight.
Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early
next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A wind gust to 105 mph (169 km/h) recently occurred
at the Wilmington Airport, an Amateur Radio operator in Kirkland
recently reported a wind gust to 98 mph (158 km/h), and a wind gust
of 95 mph (153 km/h) was also recently reported by a Weatherflow
private weather station at Federal Point.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface data from the
NOAA NOS observing site at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach
is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-14 12:33

WTNT61 KNHC 141134
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
735 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE FINALLY MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence made landfall along
the coast of North Carolina at 715 AM EDT...1115 UTC...near 34.2N
77.8W...which is near Wrightsville Beach. Maximum sustained winds
were estimated to be 90 mph (150 km/h), and the central pressure was
estimated to be 958 mb based on reports from the NOAA NOS observing
station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach.

SUMMARY OF 715 AM EDT...1115 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 12:33

WTNT31 KNHC 141204 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 60A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Corrected movement from WNW to W in Summary section

...FLORENCE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.miles/hr

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface
observations to be just inland near latitude 34.1 North, longitude
77.9 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move
further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and
extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight.
Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early
next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A wind gust to 105 mph (169 km/h) recently occurred
at the Wilmington Airport, an Amateur Radio operator in Kirkland
recently reported a wind gust to 98 mph (158 km/h), and a wind gust
of 95 mph (153 km/h) was also recently reported by a Weatherflow
private weather station at Federal Point.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface data from the
NOAA NOS observing site at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach
is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-14 12:33

WTNT31 KNHC 141158
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 60A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.miles/hr

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface
observations to be just inland near latitude 34.1 North, longitude
77.9 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h).
A slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will
move further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and
extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight.
Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early
next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A wind gust to 105 mph (169 km/h) recently occurred
at the Wilmington Airport, an Amateur Radio operator in Kirkland
recently reported a wind gust to 98 mph (158 km/h), and a wind gust
of 95 mph (153 km/h) was also recently reported by a Weatherflow
private weather station at Federal Point.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface data from the
NOAA NOS observing site at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach
is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 11:34

WTNT61 KNHC 141101
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
705 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...700 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

Buoy 41064, operated by the Coastal Ocean Research and Monitoring
Program (CORMP), which is located about 50 miles east of the center
of Florence's eye, recently reported a wind gust to 112 mph (180
km/h).

A Weatherbug site located at Cape Fear Community College recently
reported a wind gust to 100 mph (161 km/h), a report of a wind
gust of 91 mph (146 km/h) at the Wilmington Airport, and a NOAA
Ocean Service (NOS) observing site in Wrightsville Beach recently
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph
(140 km/h). The NOS site also recently reported a pressure of 959.2
mb.

The water levels in Pamlico Sound and Emerald Isle remain elevated.
These waters are expected to rise as the tides come back in. A USGS
gauge in Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 6.1 feet
above normal water levels.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-14 10:34

WTNT61 KNHC 140950
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
600 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...600 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF HURRICANE FLORENCE ONSHORE IN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LANDFALL OF THE CENTER WILL OCCUR VERY SOON...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph
(127 km/h). A private weather station in Topsail Beach,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 60 mph
(97 km/h) with a gust to 70 mph (131 km/h).

The water levels in Pamlico Sound and Emerald Isle remain elevated.
These waters are expected to rise as the tides come back in. A USGS
gauge in Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 7.0 feet
above normal water levels.

SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Manougian

2018-09-14 09:33

WTNT41 KNHC 140842
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating
Florence over the past few hours. Data from the aircraft indicate
little change in the intensity with the central pressure holding
fairly steady. The current intensity estimate is kept at 80 kt for
this advisory. There were a couple of SFMR-observed surface winds
that were a little higher than that value, however these
observations were very near Cape Lookout North Carolina, where
shoaling likely caused some inflated wind speeds. The current
intensity estimate is also consistent with peak WSR-88D Doppler
radar velocities. The center of Florence will be moving inland very
soon, but is expected to slow down even more today and tonight. As
a result, it will remain fairly close to the coast today, with much
of the circulation still over water. Therefore only a gradual
decrease in intensity is called for through tonight. Over the
weekend, a faster rate of weakening is likely while the center moves
at a faster pace and goes farther inland.

The hurricane is turning westward as it continues a slow forward
motion of about 285/5 kt. Florence is currently in a region of weak
steering currents associated with a col between two mid-level
anticyclones. Over the next few days, a high pressure area is
forecast to build to the east-northeast of the tropical cyclone.
As a result, the system should gradually turn northwestward and
northward in 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, Florence
should turn northeastward as it approaches the mid-latitude
westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and about in the middle of the dynamical guidance
suite.

It cannot be emphasized enough that the most serious hazard
associated with slow-moving Florence is extremely heavy rainfall,
which will cause disastrous flooding that will be spreading inland
through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along
portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through
today and tonight. This surge is also likely along portions of the
South Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is
expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down while it moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of
the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of
the South Carolina coast later today. Strong winds could
also spread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next
couple of days.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 34.2N 77.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 34.1N 78.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1800Z 33.8N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0600Z 34.1N 81.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0600Z 36.6N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 40.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/0600Z 43.5N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-14 09:33

WTNT31 KNHC 140841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA...
...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 77.4 West.
Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
turn toward the west at a slow forward speed is expected today,
followed by a slow west-southwestward motion tonight and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to move
inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme
eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will then move
generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central
Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight.
Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early
next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 72 mph (116 km/h)
and a gust of 90 mph (145 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter data is
958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-14 09:33

WTNT21 KNHC 140840
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 77.4W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 140SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 240SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 77.4W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.1N 78.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.8N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.1N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.6N 83.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 40.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 43.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 77.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-14 08:32

WTNT61 KNHC 140753
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
400 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...400 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF FLORENCE BEGINNING TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph
(145 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 65 mph (104 km/h) and a gust
of 87 mph (140 km/h).

The water levels in Pamlico Sound and Emerald Isle remain elevated.
These waters are expected to rise as the tides come back in. A USGS
gauge in Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 6.6 feet of
inundation.

A NOAA buoy at Onslow Bay recently reported a minimum pressure of
961 mb (28.38 mb). A NOAA buoy off of Wilmington, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (88 km/h) and a gust
of 90 mph (145 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Manougian

2018-09-14 07:32

WTNT61 KNHC 140650
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
300 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...300 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...FLORENCE POUNDING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph
(145 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a wind
gust of 99 mph (159 km/h).

Storm surge values continue to rise in areas of onshore flow on
the North Carolina coast and over inland waterways. A USGS gauge in
Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 6.3 feet of
inundation.

A NOAA buoy at Onslow Bay recently reported a minimum pressure of
956 mb (28.23 mb). A NOAA buoy off of Wilmington, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (91 km/h) and a gust
of 95 mph (153 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Manougian

2018-09-14 06:31

WTNT31 KNHC 140538
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 59A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 34.1
North, longitude 77.2 West. Florence is moving toward the west-
northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west at a
slow forward speed is expected today, followed by a slow
west-southwestward motion tonight and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence is expected to move inland across
extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South
Carolina Friday and Saturday. Florence will then move generally
northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian
Mountains early next week.

Data from NOAA Doppler radar indicate the the maximum sustained
winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is expected before Florence moves inland today.
Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early
next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina
recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (114 km/h) with a gust
to 92 mph (148 km/h). A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 70 mph (113 km/h)
with a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).

A USGS gauge at New Bern, North Carolina, on the Neuse River is
currently recording 10.1 feet of inundation. Another USGS gauge in
Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 5.5 feet of
inundation.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will
produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over portions of the coast
of North Carolina and are expected to spread across portions of
southeastern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina through
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland
across the remainder of the warning area through Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and
southeastern North Carolina through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-14 05:31

WTNT61 KNHC 140458
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...100 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OCCURRING
IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
recorded a sustained wind of 67 mph (114 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph
(140 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 70 mph (113 km/h) and a wind
gust of 92 mph (148 km/h).

A USGS gauge at New Bern, North Carolina, on the Neuse River is
currently recording 10.1 feet of inundation. Another USGS gauge in
Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 5.3 feet of
inundation.

A NOAA buoy at Onslow Bay recently reported a minimum pressure of
956 mb (28.23 mb). A NOAA buoy at Frying Pan Shoals recently
reported a sustained wind of 62 mph (101 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph
(133 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Manougian

2018-09-14 04:31

WTNT61 KNHC 140354
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...1200 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (114 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph
(140 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind
gust of 79 mph (127 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly on the western side of
Pamlico Sound. A USGS gauge at New Bern, North Carolina, on the
Neuse River is recording 9.6 feet of inundation.

A NOAA buoy at Onslow Bay recently reported a minimum pressure of
960 mb (28.35 mb).


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 76.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Manougian

2018-09-14 03:31

WTNT41 KNHC 140258
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the
east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to
spread inland across southeastern North Carolina. The highest
flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer
band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area. However, the
highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land
observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout,
North Carolina. On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have
been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet. All of these data
support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the
higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little
higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.

Florence has been wobbling a little since the previous advisory,
but the 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 305/5 kt. Nearly all
of the track models agree that Florence will turn westward or
west-southwestward during the next 36 hours, bringing the
hurricane's center inland over extreme southern North Carolina and
extreme eastern South Carolina Friday and Friday night. After 48
hours, Florence is expected to recurve across the western Carolinas
and the central Appalachian Mountains around a western Atlantic
ridge. No major changes were required to the NHC official track
forecast, and it is generally close to the multi-model consensus
aids. It should be noted that the ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble still take Florence on a more southern track,
straddling the coast of South Carolina before turning inland.
While that is not shown by the official forecast, it cannot yet be
ruled out as a possibility.

Florence's intensity is not likely to change much in the 12 hours
or so it has left over water. Once the center moves inland, the
intensity is forecast to decrease. However, since a good portion
of Florence's circulation will remain over water for the next 36-48
hours, the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the regular SHIPS
model (which assumes a storm staying over water) and the Decay-SHIPS
model (which assumes the storm has moved inland). Based on that,
Florence should weaken to a tropical storm just after 24 hours and
then below tropical storm strength after 48 hours.

Florence remains a large hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and damaging wind will cover a large area regardless
of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along
portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through
Friday. This surge is also likely along portions of the South
Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is expected
between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of
the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of
the South Carolina coast on Friday. Strong winds could also spread
inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next couple of days.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 34.0N 76.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 34.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 35.5N 82.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 39.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/0000Z 44.0N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-14 03:31

WTNT31 KNHC 140258
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued north of Duck North
Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 76.8
West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slow forward speed
is expected through Friday, followed by a slow west-southwestward
motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme
southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina
Friday and Saturday. Florence will then recurve across the western
Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, coastal surface
observations, and NOAA Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is expected before Florence moves inland on Friday.
More significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into
early next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North
Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h)
with a gust to 100 mph (161 km/h).

A storm surge of 10 feet above normal levels was reported by the
National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina,
at the Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal on the Neuse River, courtesy of
the North Carolina Department of Transportation.

The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is 956 mb
(28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will
produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over portions of the coast
of North Carolina and are expected to spread across portions of
southeastern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina through
Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland
across the remainder of the warning area through Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and
southeastern North Carolina through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-14 03:31

WTNT21 KNHC 140255
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 76.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 240SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 76.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.0N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.5N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 39.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 44.0N 72.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 76.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-14 02:31

WTNT61 KNHC 140154 CCA
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1000 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...1000 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA AREA...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (133 km/h) and a gust to
101 mph (163 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 79 mph (127 km/h)
and a wind gust of 98 mph (158 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort
Macon, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph
(114 km/h) and a wind gust of 100 mph (160 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly on the western side of
Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Oriental, North Carolina, on the Neuse
River is recording a water height of about 6.0 feet above normal
levels.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-14 01:31

WTNT61 KNHC 140056 CCA
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
900 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...900 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA AREA...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (133 km/h) and a gust to
106 mph (170 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 75 mph (120 km/h)
and a wind gust of 92 mph (148 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort
Macon, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 70 mph
(113 km/h) and a wind gust of 105 mph (169 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly on the western side of
Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Oriental, North Carolina, on the Neuse
River is recording a water height of about 5.5 feet above normal
levels.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-14 00:31

WTNT61 KNHC 132325 CCA
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
700 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Corrected maximum sustained winds and to update observations

...700 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (131 km/h) and a gust to 97
mph (156 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h). A
Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina, recently reported
a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130
km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly on the western side of
Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Oriental, North Carolina, on the Neuse
River is recording a water height of about 5.5 feet above normal
levels.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 76.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Beven

2018-09-14 00:31

WTNT31 KNHC 132356
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 58A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 76.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
center of the eye of Florence was located near latitude 33.9 North,
longitude 76.4 West. Florence is moving slowly toward the northwest
near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a slow west-northwestward motion is
expected to resume tonight or Friday. A slow westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected Friday night and Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts
of North and South Carolina later tonight, then move near or over
the coast of southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina
in the hurricane warning area on Friday. A slow motion across
portions of eastern and central South Carolina is forecast Friday
night through Saturday night.

Wind data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before the eye of Florence
reaches the coast, with slow weakening expected after the center
moves inland or meanders near the coast. More significant weakening
is forecast on Saturday as Florence moves farther inland over
central South Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (131 km/h)
and a gust to 97 mph (156 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort
Macon, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph
(108 km/h) and a gust to 99 mph (159 km/h).

Data from the plane indicate that the minimum central pressure
remains 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will
produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions have reached portions of the coast of
North Carolina and are expected to spread elsewhere within the
hurricane warning area overnight or early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread inland and south across
the remainder of the warning areas through Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and
southeastern North Carolina through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-13 23:31

WTNT61 KNHC 132256
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
700 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...700 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a gust to 86
mph (139 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h). A
Weatherflow station at Fort Macon, North Carolina, recently reported
a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (116
km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly on the western side of
Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Oriental, North Carolina, on the Neuse
River is recording a water height of about 5.5 feet above normal
levels.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 76.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Beven

2018-09-13 22:31

WTNT61 KNHC 132157
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...600 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 84
mph (135 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) and a wind
gust of 75 mph (121 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89
km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).

Water levels are increasingly quickly on the western side of
Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Cedar Island, North Carolina, recently
recorded a water height of about 4 feet above normal levels.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 76.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Beven

2018-09-13 21:31

WTNT41 KNHC 132052
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

The satellite and radar presentations of Florence have changed
little this afternoon with a 20-25 nmi wide eye waxing and waning
as intrusions of dry air have occasionally eroded the southern and
eastern eyewall. Despite the occasional ragged appearance of
Florence's eye, reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that the
central pressure has remained steady at 955 mb. The last reports
from the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters support an intensity
of 85 kt, and this is corroborated by average Doppler velocity
values of near 105 kt at 2500-3000 ft ASL. A report of a 10-minute
average wind of 59 kt and a gust to 74 kt was recently received from
the Cape Lookout C-MAN station (CLKN7). The 59-kt 10-minute wind
speed is roughly equivalent to a 65-kt 1-minute wind.

Florence has continued to slow down, and radar fixes over the past
couple hours suggest that Florence has possibly stalled due to a
re-organization of the eye/eyewall. Smoothing through the fixes
over the past 6 h yields an initial motion estimate of 295/04 kt.
There is no change to the previous forecast reasoning. The ridge to
the north and east of Florence remains intact over the Atlantic
Ocean, but water vapor imagery and special upper-air observations
indicate that a shortwave trough has weakened that portion of the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, resulting in a weakening
of the steering currents. The ridge is forecast by all of the
latest model guidance to remain intact, albeit weak, for the next 72
hours, which will nudge Florence on a slow westward to west-
southwest track into central South Carolina. On days 4 and 5,
Florence is expected to become an extratropical low as it interacts
with a front while moving northward and northeastward along the
Appalachian Mountains. The official forecast track is similar to,
but slightly south of the previous advisory track through 72 hours,
with little change indicated on days 4 and 5. This scenario closely
follows the simple consensus model TVCN/TVCA, which is north of the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE, which are heavily weighing
the southernmost model, ECMWF, which keeps Florence over or near the
Atlantic through about 48 hours.

Radar data indicate that Florence may be developing an outer
eyewall. If this trend continues, then little change to the
intensity is likely until landfall occurs in about 24 hours due in
part to the low vertical wind shear conditions and the warm, deep
waters of the Gulfstream current. Florence is expected to weaken
after landfall, but the rate of weakening may be tempered somewhat
due to much of the hurricane's circulation remaining over the warm
waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulfstream. Once Florence moves
farther inland over central South Carolina, rapid weakening of
the inner-core wind field should occur due to land interaction and
the cyclone's slow forward speed of 5 kt or less. However, intense
rainbands are expected to continue developing over the Atlantic
waters and keep moving along the coast and inland, likely producing
strong wind gusts through Saturday night.

Aircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence remains a large
hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
damaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where
the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is highly likely along portions of
the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. The greatest
storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and Cape
Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico
Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina beginning this evening,
and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread
inland into portions of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 33.7N 76.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 34.1N 77.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 34.2N 78.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 33.8N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 34.8N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 37.9N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 42.7N 76.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 21:31

WTNT31 KNHC 132033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS GETTING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from south of South Santee
River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), data from NOAA Doppler weather radars
indicate that the center of the eye of Florence was located near
latitude 33.7 North, longitude 76.2 West. Florence is moving toward
the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue into Friday. A slow westward to west-
southwestward motion is expected Friday night and Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts
of North and South Carolina later tonight, then move near or over
the coast of southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina
in the hurricane warning area on Friday. A slow motion across
portions of eastern and central South Carolina is forecast Friday
night through Saturday night.

Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is expected before the eye of Florence reaches
the coast, with slow weakening expected after the center moves
inland or meanders near the coast. More significant weakening is
forecast on Saturday as Florence moves farther inland over central
South Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A NOAA reporting station at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h)
and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will
produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning
area.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern and
southeastern North Carolina through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 21:31

WTNT21 KNHC 132032
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 76.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 200SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 76.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.1N 77.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N 78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.8N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.9N 82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 42.7N 76.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 76.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-13 20:31

WTNT61 KNHC 131956
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
400 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
WHILE FLORENCE'S FORWARD MOTION SLOWS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 85
mph (137 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind
gust of 67 mph (108 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87
km/h) and a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-13 19:31

WTNT61 KNHC 131854
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...WINDS AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUING TO INCREASE ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...
...TORNADO THREAT INCREASING AS FLORENCE MOVES CLOSER...

Radar data from coastal NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars
indicate that Florence is now moving toward the west-northwest.

A NOAA reporting station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph...96 km/h and a gust to 79 mph
...128 km/h. Weatherflow private observing stations in North
Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) and
a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) at Fort Macon, a sustained wind of 55
mph (86 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h) in Pamlico Sound, and
a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h)
in Ocracoke.

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 76.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 18:31

WTNT31 KNHC 131753 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 57A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Corrected distances in summary block.

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 76.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate
that Florence was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 76.0
West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in
forward speed, is expected through today. A turn toward the west-
northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected by
tonight and continuing into Friday, and a slow west-southwestward
motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and
South Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of
southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the
hurricane warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across
portions of eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through
Saturday night.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the eye of
Florence reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center
moves inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A NOAA reporting
station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).
Weatherflow private observing stations in North Carolina recently
reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
(113 km/h) at Fort Macon, a sustained wind of 47 mph (72 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) in Ocracoke, and a sustained wind of 45 mph
(72 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h) in Pamlico Sound.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent data from
the aircraft remains at 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning
area.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 18:31

WTNT31 KNHC 131749
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 57A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 76.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate
that Florence was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 76.0
West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in
forward speed, is expected through today. A turn toward the west-
northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected
by tonight and continuing into Friday, and a slow west-southwestward
motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and
South Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of
southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the
hurricane warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across
portions of eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through
Saturday night.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the eye of
Florence reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center
moves inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A NOAA reporting
station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).
Weatherflow private observing stations in North Carolina recently
reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
(113 km/h) at Fort Macon, a sustained wind of 47 mph (72 km/h) and
a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) in Ocracoke, and a sustained wind of 45
mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h) in Pamlico Sound.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent data from
the aircraft remains at 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning
area.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 17:31

WTNT61 KNHC 131700 CCA
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Corrected issuance time to 100 PM EDT

...WINDS AND SURF INCREASING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...
...TORNADO THREAT INCREASING AS FLORENCE MOVES CLOSER...

A NOAA reporting station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph...72 km/h and a gust to 54 mph
...87 km/h. A Weatherflow private observing station in Pamlico
Sound, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 51
mph...82 km/h and a gust to 61 mph...98 km/h.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 75.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 17:31

WTNT61 KNHC 131659
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...WINDS AND SURF INCREASING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...
...TORNADO THREAT INCREASING AS FLORENCE MOVES CLOSER...

A NOAA reporting station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph...72 km/h and a gust to 54 mph
...87 km/h. A Weatherflow private observing station in Pamlico
Sound, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 51
mph...82 km/h and a gust to 61 mph...98 km/h.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 75.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 16:31

WTNT61 KNHC 131551
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER
BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...
...TORNADO THREAT INCREASING AS FLORENCE MOVES CLOSER...

A NOAA reporting station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 55 mph...89 km/h and a gust to 70 mph
...113 km/h. A Weatherflow private observing station in Ocracoke,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph...80
km/h and a gust to 52 mph...100 km/h.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 75.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 15:31

WTNT41 KNHC 131456
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

The satellite and radar presentations of Florence have improved
somewhat this morning, with a 20-25 nmi wide eye closing off in the
radar data from the Morehead City and Wilmington WSR-88D Doppler
weather radars. However, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft investigating the hurricane this morning has not yet found
any flight-level or SFMR winds to support more than about 80 kt at
the surface thus far, even though the pressure has decreased to 955
mb. The initial intensity has only been lowered to 90 kt, given
that there are peak Doppler velocity values up to 110 kt with
average values of 95-97 kt at 15,000 ft in the northern eyewall
region, an area of the hurricane that the reconnaissance aircraft
has not yet sampled. The upper-level outflow pattern remains quite
impressive.

Florence has been gradually slowing down this morning, and the
initial motion estimate is now 315/09 kt. The subtropical ridge to
the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between
Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into
Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is
expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed
by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday as the
ridge to the north of Florence weakens due to a weak shortwave
trough dropping slowly southward from the Ohio Valley. On days 3-5,
Florence is forecast turn toward the northwest and north around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and move across western
South Carolina on Sunday, across western North Carolina and eastern
Tennessee on Monday, and then move up the spine of the Appalachians
as an extratropical low after the cyclone merges or interacts with a
frontal system. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the
previous one, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models
TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE.

Florence is currently approaching the Gulfstream current, and the
hurricane is forecast to move over warmer and deeper waters in 6-12
hours, which could allow for some slight strengthening. Just prior
to landfall in about 24 hours, Florence is expected to weaken some
due to upwelling of the shallow coastal waters. After landfall
occurs, rapid weaning of the stronger inner-core wind field is
expected to due land interaction and Florence's slow forward speed
of 5 kt or less. However, intense rainbands are expected to develop
over the Atlantic waters and keep moving along the coast and inland,
likely producing strong wind gusts through Saturday night.

Aircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence remains a large
hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
damaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where
the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. The
greatest storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and
Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers and western
Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina as soon as this evening,
and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread
inland into portions of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 33.4N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 33.9N 76.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 15/0000Z 34.1N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 34.0N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 34.3N 81.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 36.9N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 40.3N 79.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 15:31

WTNT31 KNHC 131444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars from
indicate that Florence was located near latitude 33.4 North,
longitude 75.5 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near
10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a further
decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through today. A
turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed
is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion
is forecast Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South
Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of southern
North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across portions of
eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday
night.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the
center reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center
moves inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA Buoy 41025,
located near Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 24 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning
area.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 15:31

WTNT21 KNHC 131438
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
NEARING COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 75.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 75.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.9N 76.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.1N 78.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.0N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.3N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.9N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 40.3N 79.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 75.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-13 14:31

WTNT61 KNHC 131355
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
NOAA Doppler weather radars from Morehead City and Wilmington,
North Carolina, indicate that Florence has changed little. Maximum
sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h). The latest minimum
central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 955 mb (28.20
inches). NOAA Buoy 41025, located near Diamond Shoals, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph...87 km/h
and a gust to 59 mph...94 km/h. A wind gust to 51 mph...81 km/h was
recently reported in Morehead City, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 13:31

WTNT61 KNHC 131256
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
900 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
NOAA Doppler weather radars from Morehead City and Wilmington,
North Carolina, indicate that Florence has changed little. Maximum
sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h). The latest minimum
central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 957 mb (28.26
inches).


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 75.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 12:31

WTNT31 KNHC 131158
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 56A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...SQUALLY RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE
OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 75.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
and NOAA Doppler weather radars to be near latitude 33.1 North,
longitude 75.1 West. Florence is moving slower toward the northwest
at about 12 mph (20 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a
further decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through
today. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower
forward speed is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow
west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts
of North and South Carolina later today, then move near or over the
coast of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the
hurricane warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion over
eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center
reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center moves
inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
the aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall would produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Rest of South and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...6 to 12
inches, isolated 24 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength by later this
morning or early this afternoon, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be nearing completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-13 09:31

WTNT41 KNHC 130856
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

The satellite presentation of Florence has changed little overnight
with the eye waxing and waning in infrared imagery. The eye has
moved into NWS radar range and can be seen in radar data from
Morehead City and Wilmington NWS 88-D imagery. An 0616 UTC
AMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that the convection over the
southern and southeastern portions of the storm is still disrupted,
and that the eyewall was open to the southeast. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft also reported that the eyewall was not
fully intact on its last pass through the storm just after that
time. The Air Force plane measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind
of 102 kt and peak SFMR winds of 85 kt during the mission. These
data suggest that the intensity may be slightly lower, but the
initial intensity has been maintained at 95 kt, since the plane
may not have sampled the strongest winds. Another Air Force
plane will be in Florence shortly, and should provide a better
assessment of the intensity of the hurricane. As mentioned in
the previous discussion, it appears that some southern shear has
caused the degradation of the inner core. The global models suggest
that this shear will relax today while Florence moves over warm
waters, however, given the current storm structure, little overall
change in strength is anticipated as Florence approaches the coast.
Gradual weakening should occur as the hurricane interacts with land
in 24-36 h, with a faster rate of weakening predicted once Florence
moves farther inland.

Florence is moving northwestward or 315 degrees at 13 kt. A
developing mid-level ridge over the north-central United States
should cause the forward speed of the hurricane to decrease today.
As the steering currents collapse tonight and Friday, Florence is
forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward and continue that
slow motion into the weekend. The global models predict that the
ridge will slide eastward over the weekend, which should allow
Florence to turn northwestward and northward by the end of the
forecast period. Although there is still some spread in the
guidance by 48 hours, with the GFS along the northern side of the
guidance envelope, and the ECWMF along the southern edge, the
various consensus aids have moved little. As a result, the new NHC
forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory.

Aircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence is a large
hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
damaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where
the center of Florence moves.


Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early
next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the
coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 32.8N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 33.7N 76.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 34.2N 77.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 34.3N 78.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0600Z 34.1N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0600Z 33.9N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0600Z 35.4N 83.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 39.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-13 09:31

WTNT31 KNHC 130855
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF FLORENCE ARE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from north of the North Carolina/Virginia
border to Cape Charles Light Virginia and for the Chesapeake Bay
south of New Point Comfort has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is
expected to continue through today. A turn to the west-northwest
and west at an even slower forward speed is expected tonight and
Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina later today,
then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and
eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area tonight and
Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast
Friday night through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center
reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center moves
inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A NOAA buoy located
about 80 miles (130 km) south of the center of Florence has
recently reported sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust
to 64 mph (104 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall would produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Rest of South and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...6 to 12
inches, isolated 24 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength by later this
morning or early this afternoon, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be nearing completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-13 09:31

WTNT21 KNHC 130854
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA AND FOR THE CHESAPEAK BAY
SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
NEARING COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 74.7W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 74.7W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 74.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.7N 76.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.3N 78.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.1N 79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.9N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 35.4N 83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 39.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 74.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-13 06:32

WTNT31 KNHC 130547
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 55A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...FLORENCE MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is
expected to continue through today. A turn to the west-northwest
and west at an even slower forward speed is expected tonight and
Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina later today,
then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and
eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area tonight and
Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center
reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center moves
inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A NOAA buoy located about 60 miles (95 km)
southwest of the center of Florence recently reported sustained
winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (115 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late this morning
or early afternoon today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-13 03:31

WTNT41 KNHC 130249
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Satellite data and reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
significant changes in the structure of Florence and the
environment near the storm since the last advisory. Microwave
satellite imagery shows that the convection on the southern side of
the storm has been disrupted, and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than
50 percent of the way around the center. The aircraft also reports
that the hurricane again has concentric wind maxima, the inner at a
radius 20-30 n mi and the outer at 50-60 n mi. The convection seems
to have been affected by 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear,
most of which appears to be due to strong winds between 200-250 mb
seen in dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet. The central
pressure has risen to 957 mb, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds reported so far are 103 kt. Based on the latter data, the
initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.

The initial motion is 315/15. During the next 12-36 hours, the
hurricane is expected to turn toward the west-northwest and west
with a decrease in forward speed as it moves into an area of
weakening steering currents near and over the southeastern United
States. The new forecast track now brings the center onshore in
southern North Carolina near the 36 h point. After landfall, the
cyclone should move slowly westward to west-southwestward through
the 72 h point, then it should turn northwestward to northward by
the end of the forecast period as it moves through the Appalachian
Mountains. The new forecast track lies between the HCCA corrected
consensus model and the other consensus aids, and it is nudged just
a little to the north of the previous track.

The dynamical models forecast the current shear to subside after
6-12 h as Florence moves farther from an upper-level low currently
near northeastern Florida. This, combined with sea surface
temperatures near 29C, would allow a last chance for strengthening
before landfall. However, the storm structure, particularly the
large outer wind maxima, would likely be slow to respond to the
more favorable environment. The pre-landfall part of the intensity
forecast thus calls for little change in strength, but given the
uncertainties the confidence in this is low. After landfall,
Florence should gradually weaken during the 36-48 h period while
the center is near the coast, then weaken more quickly when the
center moves farther inland.

While Florence has weakened below major hurricane intensity, the
wind field of the hurricane continues to grow in size. This
evolution will produce storm surges similar to that of a more
intense, but smaller, hurricane, and thus the storm surge values
seen in the previous advisory are still valid. The threat of
rainfall has also not diminished, and these impacts will cover a
large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.


Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early
next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the
coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 32.0N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 33.1N 75.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 33.9N 76.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 34.2N 78.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0000Z 34.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 33.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0000Z 34.0N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0000Z 37.5N 83.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-13 03:31

WTNT31 KNHC 130248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is
expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to the west-northwest
and west at an even slower forward speed is expected Thursday
night and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast
Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina on
Thursday, then move near or over the coast of southern North
Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on
Thursday night and Friday. A slow motion over eastern South
Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph
(175 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is now a category 2
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale. Little
change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast,
with weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-13 03:31

WTNT21 KNHC 130247
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 73.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 73.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 73.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.1N 75.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.9N 76.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.1N 78.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.5N 83.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 73.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-13 00:31

WTNT31 KNHC 122354
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 54A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COASTAL AREAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 73.2W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 73.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is
expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight, and approach the coast of
North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on
Thursday and Friday, and move slowly near the coastline through
Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph
(185 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
strength are possible through Thursday morning. Although slow
weakening is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is
forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears
the U.S. coast late Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-12 21:31

WTNT41 KNHC 122042
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft along with
satellite imagery and various intensity estimates indicate that
Florence has weakened instead of strengthening. However, while the
hurricane hasn't strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core
and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an
increase the cyclone's total energy, which will create a significant
storm surge event. The upper-level outflow remains impressive and is
still expanding except toward the south.

Florence is moving toward the northwest or 315/14 kt. The new 12Z
global and regional model runs have come into much better agreement
on Florence moving steadily northwestward around a strong ridge
located between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region for the
next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2, Florence is forecast to
approach the southern portion of the North Carolina coast, then slow
down considerably and turn westward within collapsing steering flow,
with a very slow westward motion near the coasts of North and South
Carolina continuing into Friday and Saturday. Corrected-consensus
models HCCA and FSSE remain very close to each other and are quite
similar to the simple consensus model TVCA. Therefore, only a slight
eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36
hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based
on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant
changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still
shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and
western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion
up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.

A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or
so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes
over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat
content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear
conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process.
However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to
Florence's large and expanding inner-core wind field. By 36 h
and beyond, decreasing ocean heat content along with the slowing
forward speed of Florence will likely produce cold upwelling beneath
the hurricane, inducing a gradual weakening trend. When Florence
moves over the shallow coastal shelf waters in 48-72 h, land
interaction and more significant upwelling are anticipated, which
should further enhance the weakening process. The NHC intensity
forecast remains near the higher statistical guidance through 48
hours, then follows the trend of the decay SHIPS model after that
time.

Although the maximum winds are expected to weaken a little more,
Florence is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as
it approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and
rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large
area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early
next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the
coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 30.9N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 33.4N 75.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 33.9N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 15/1800Z 33.6N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 35.6N 83.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-12 21:31

WTNT31 KNHC 122036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLORENCE MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 72.5W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 72.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is
expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight, and approach the coast of
North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on
Thursday and Friday, and move slowly near the coastline through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
will be possible through Thursday morning. Although slow weakening
is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast
late Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-12 21:31

WTNT21 KNHC 122036
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 72.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 72.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 71.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.4N 75.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.9N 77.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.6N 79.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 35.6N 83.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-12 19:34

WTNT31 KNHC 121841 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 53A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Corrected formatting of pressure in summary section

...FLORENCE'S PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY BUT THE SIZE OF THE
WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), reports from An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the eye of
Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude
71.8 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h) and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in
forward speed, is expected to through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach
the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near the
coastline through Saturday.

The reconnaissance aircraft found that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is
now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible through
Thursday morning. Although slow weakening is expected to begin by
late Thursday, Florence is still forecast to be an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast late Thursday
and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A NOAA buoy located about 100 miles northeast of
Florence's eye recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85
km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (119 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 948 mb (27.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-12 18:31

WTNT31 KNHC 121757
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLORENCE'S PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY BUT THE SIZE OF THE
WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 mb...27.99 inches


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), reports from An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the eye of
Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude
71.8 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph
(26 km/h) and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease
in forward speed, is expected to through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach
the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near the
coastline through Saturday.

The reconnaissance aircraft found that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is
now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible through
Thursday morning. Although slow weakening is expected to begin by
late Thursday, Florence is still forecast to be an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast late Thursday
and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A NOAA buoy located about 100 miles northeast of
Florence's eye recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85
km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (119 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 948 mb (27.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-12 15:32

WTNT41 KNHC 121456
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating
Florence this morning has found no change in the hurricane's peak
intensity of 115 kt, even though the central pressure had decreased
a few millibars down to 943 mb. However, the aircraft data do
indicate that Florence's inner-core wind field has expanded, with
the 50-kt wind radii now extending outward up to 100 n mi to the
northeast. Florence still has a very distinct eye in satellite
imagery, but cloud top temperatures have been waxing and waning in
the eyewall region, with slight downward trend noted in the past
hour or so. In contrast, the upper-level outflow remains impressive
and continues to expand everywhere except to the south.

Florence is now moving toward the northwest or 305/13 kt. There has
been no significant change to the NHC model guidance, including the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE, which are now virtually
on top of each other and the simple consensus model TVCA. As a
result, no changes were required to the previous NHC track. The
shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor
imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the
narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours. On
the current forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to be
near the coasts of southern North Carolina and northern South
Carolina in 48 to 72 hours and then drift westward to west-
southwestward in weak steering flow.

There is still a narrow window of opportunity for Florence to
strengthen a little when the cyclone moves over the warmest SSTs and
highest upper-ocean heat content while the shear will be the lowest
between 0600-1200 UTC tomorrow morning. After that, decreasing ocean
heat content along with the slowing forward speed of Florence should
cause at least some cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, which
should induce a gradual weakening trend. Once Florence reaches the
shallow coastal shelf waters in 72 h, land interaction and more
significant upwelling are expected, further enhancing the weakening
process. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher
statistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of the
decay SHIPS model after that time.

While Florence's maximum winds are expected to weaken a little, it
is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it
approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and
rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large
area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas late this
week into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as
it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 29.8N 71.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 31.1N 73.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 32.6N 75.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 33.5N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 33.8N 77.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 15/1200Z 33.6N 78.4W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 16/1200Z 33.6N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1200Z 34.7N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-12 15:32

WTNT31 KNHC 121458 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 53...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Corrected second headline

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 71.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), reports from An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the eye of
Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude
71.3 West. Florence is now moving toward the northwest near 15 mph
(24 km/h) and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual
decrease in forward speed, is expected to through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today,
and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the
hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near
the coastline through Saturday.

The reconnaissance aircraft found that maximum sustained winds
remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some strengthening is forecast through tonight. While some
weakening is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is still
forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears
the U.S. coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-12 15:32

WTNT31 KNHC 121440
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 71.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), reports from An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the eye of
Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude
71.3 West. Florence is now moving toward the northwest near 15 mph
(24 km/h) and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual
decrease in forward speed, is expected to through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today,
and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the
hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near
the coastline through Saturday.

The reconnaissance aircraft found that maximum sustained winds
remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some strengthening is forecast through tonight. While some
weakening is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is still
forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears
the U.S. coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-12 15:32

WTNT21 KNHC 121438
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 71.3W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 71.3W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 70.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.1N 73.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.6N 75.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.8N 77.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.6N 78.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 33.6N 80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 34.7N 82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 71.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-12 12:31

WTNT31 KNHC 121156
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 70.7W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 70.7 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the northwest is
forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday.
Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into
Friday, and move slowly through early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach
the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through tonight.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S.
coast. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches
South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to
10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to
6 inches, isolated 12 inches

This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and
significant river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-12 12:31

WTNT31 KNHC 121155
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 70.7W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 70.7 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the northwest is
forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday.
Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into
Friday, and move slowly through early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach
the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through tonight.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S.
coast. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches
South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to
10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to
6 inches, isolated 12 inches

This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and
significant river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-12 09:31

WTNT41 KNHC 120853
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

The eye of Florence remains very distinct in infrared satellite
imagery this morning. There has been little change to the cloud top
temperatures surrounding the eye overnight, however, the overall
cloud shield and central dense overcast has become slightly more
symmetric. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was
in the hurricane until just after midnight measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 130 kt, and a SFMR wind of 107 kt in the
northeast eyewall. A blend of these data and recent subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates supports an initial wind
speed of 115 kt. Florence will be moving over sea surface
temperatures of around 29C and through an area of low vertical wind
shear during the next day or so. These conditions favor some
strengthening, but eyewall replacement cycles could cause some
fluctuations in intensity during that time. After that time, an
increase in southwesterly shear, upwelling, and interaction with
land is likely to lead to some weakening, however, Florence is
expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the
coastline. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the higher
statistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of
the decay SHIPS model after that time.

Florence is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 15 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast or reasoning for the
first 36-48 hours, as Florence will continue to be steered
west-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion
of a mid-level ridge centered northeast of Bermuda. By late
Thursday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to begin building over the
east-central United States, which is expected to cause Florence
to slow down significantly by 48 hours. The track guidance is in
good agreement through the first couple of days of the forecast
period, and the NHC track forecast again brings the center of the
hurricane very close to the coasts of North and South Carolina
within 48 hours. Later in the period, the dynamical model spread
increases but most of the guidance has continued its southward
shift, and now take Florence southwestward near the coast of South
Carolina by day 4. The NHC track has been adjusted southward at
days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect
for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean
is south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward
adjustment may be warranted in future advisories.

It is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend
well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as
a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area
regardless of exactly where the center moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
complete preparations and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 29.0N 70.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 32.0N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 33.2N 76.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 33.8N 77.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 15/0600Z 33.8N 78.2W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 16/0600Z 33.6N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/0600Z 34.2N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-12 09:31

WTNT31 KNHC 120852
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 70.1W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Duck North
Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border. The Hurricane
Watch for this area has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 70.1 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through
Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late
Thursday into Friday, and move through early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today,
and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the
hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through tonight.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the
U.S. coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches
South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to
10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to
6 inches, isolated 12 inches

This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and
significant river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-12 09:31

WTNT21 KNHC 120852
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER. THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 70.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 70.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 69.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.0N 74.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.2N 76.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.8N 77.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.8N 78.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 33.6N 79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 34.2N 82.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 70.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-12 06:31

WTNT31 KNHC 120543
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 51A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 69.5W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 69.5 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward
the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early Thursday.
Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday
into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will
move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the
Bahamas today, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through today.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the
U.S. coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-12 03:32

WTNT41 KNHC 120254
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Florence's eye became a little ragged in appearance on satellite
images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become better
defined. There has also been a little cooling of the tops
surrounding the eye. These features suggest that Florence is
maintaining its intensity. The current intensity is kept at 120
kt, which is a little above the adjusted flight-level winds from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and a little below the latest
SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS. Over the next couple of days, the
hurricane is expected to move over a warm ocean and through an
environment of low vertical shear. This would allow some
additional strengthening until about 48 hours. From that time
and up to landfall, the global models suggest some increase in shear
which would cause some weakening. However, Florence is still likely
to remain a dangerous major hurricane when its center crosses the
coast. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and ICON intensity model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the northeast should continue to steer Florence
on a west-northwestward to northwestward heading until the
hurricane nears the coast. The steering pattern from 72 hours and
beyond becomes more complicated and uncertain. The latest GFS
model run shows a mid-level ridge building over the east-central
United States in 3-4 days. This temporarily blocks the forward
progress of the hurricane and forces a southwesterly turn in the
model run. Later in the period, the ridge rebuilds to the north of
Florence allowing the system to move inland. The official track
forecast is somewhat to the left of the previous NHC track, but to
the right of the latest consensus predictions. It should be noted
that, due to increased model spread, there is substantial
uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast.

It is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend
well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as
a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area
regardless of exactly where the center moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
complete preparations and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 28.4N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-12 03:32

WTNT31 KNHC 120253
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early
Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late
Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North
Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through Wednesday.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-12 03:32

WTNT21 KNHC 120252
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.7W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-09-12 00:32

WTNT31 KNHC 112344
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 50A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 67.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches and
warnings may be required tonight or Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
by satellite near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 67.9 West.
Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).
A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through
early Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by
late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between
Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of
North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast tonight and
Wednesday. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence
is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-09-11 21:32

WTNT41 KNHC 112056
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Microwave satellite data indicate that Florence completed a full
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) a few hours ago, and recent visible
and infrared imagery suggests that the eye has contracted slightly.
Outflow continues to expand in all quadrants, and the outflow jets
to the northwest and east have become better defined. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT are all
T6.0/115 kt, and recent NHC objective intensity estimates are
T6.2/120 kt. Given that the eye has mostly cleared out and has also
warmed to near 19 deg C, the initial intensity has been bumped
upward to 120 kt, which could be conservative. All of the wind radii
had to be expanded/increased based on a blend of the earlier
reconnaissance data and a 1430 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass.

The initial motion estimate is now 300/15 kt. There remains no
significant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Overall,
the global and regional models have done a good job capturing the
evolving synoptic- scale flow pattern across CONUS, with an
amplifying trough moving onshore the the northwestern U.S. coast,
which is inducing downstream ridging across the northeastern U.S.
and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Water vapor imagery indicates
that the blocking high pressure northwest of Bermuda is continuing
to build and shift slowly eastward. The 12Z GFS model made a
significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east,
and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72
hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track
shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and
regional models are indicating that the steering currents will
collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S.
coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through
the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite
uncertain. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the
previous two advisory tracks, and lies the middle of the guidance
envelope between the consensus models TVCA to the north and the HCCA
and FSSE models to the south.

During the next 24 hours or so, Florence is expected to remain in a
very favorable environment consisting of low shear near 5 kt, an
expanding upper-level outflow pattern, and above-average SSTs of
29.0-29.5 deg C, which should result in additional strengthening.
By 48 h, the decreasing forward speed along with the large
inner-core wind field should induce some upwelling and gradual
weakening. Although the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models
are indicating an increase in the southwesterly shear to near 20 kt,
this could be due to the SHIPS model capturing Florence's own
strong outflow from the GFS and ECMWF model fields. Despite the
weakening shown at 72 hours, Florence is still expected to remain a
dangerous hurricane through landfall. After Florence moves inland,
the slow forward speed of less than 5 kt should cause a rapid spin
down and weakening of the hurricane's circulation. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a little above the highest guidance based on
the aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow pattern, and to
maintain continuity with the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.5N 67.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 33.4N 76.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 34.5N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 15/1800Z 35.0N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1800Z 35.7N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-11 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 112040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 67.1W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle
and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle
and Pamlico Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for
the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches and
warnings may be required tonight or Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by satellite near latitude 27.5 North,
longitude 67.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest
near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and
northwest is expected through early Thursday. Florence is expected
to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is
forecast tonight and Wednesday. While some weakening is expected on
Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-11 21:32

WTNT21 KNHC 112039
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA AND THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA AND THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA AND
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 67.1W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 67.1W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.4N 76.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.5N 77.7W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 35.0N 78.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 35.7N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 67.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-11 18:31

WTNT31 KNHC 111734
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN SIZE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...INLAND FLOODING TO FOLLOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 66.2W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 66.2 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina in the hurricane watch area Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Florence is expected to begin re-
strengthening later today and continue a slow strengthening trend
for the next day or so. While some weakening is expected on
Thursday, Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds have expanded outward and now extend up to 60
miles (95 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds have also
expanded and now extend outward up to 170 miles (280 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30
inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-11 15:31

WTNT41 KNHC 111458
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Data from satellites and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft mission indicate that Florence has completed an overnight
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The recon data indicate that the
eye has now expanded to a diameter of 30-32 n mi, and this was
confirmed by an 1103Z SSMI/S microwave satellite image. The aircraft
provided various intensity estimates with a peak SFMR surface wind
of 113 kt noted in the northwest quadrant, a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 143 kt in the northeast quadrant, and a central
pressure of 950 mb. The 143-kt flight-level wind would normally
correlate to an equivalent surface wind of about 129 kt. However,
coincident SFMR surface winds were only 108 kt, indicating that the
weak convection that region of the hurricane was not vigorous enough
to bring down the strongest winds to the surface. The 950-mb central
pressures corespondents to about 113 kt. Based on a blend of all
these data, the initial intensity has been set to 115 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 295/14 kt based on the recent
recon fix data. The broken record continues -- there is no
significant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Although
the global and regional models continue to make minor shifts
northward and southward, the consensus models have changed little.
GOES-16 high-resolution water vapor imagery indicates that the
amplifying large-scale flow pattern across CONUS is inducing a
downstream ridge over the western Atlantic, with a high pressure
cell centered northwest of Bermuda. This blocking ridge pattern is
expected to keep Florence moving west-northwestward to northwest at
around 15 kt for the next 48 hours or so. However, embedded within
the large-scale flow is a weak shortwave trough over the central and
southern Plains that is expected to eject out northeastward and
weaken the ridging across the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S.,
causing Florence to slow down significantly in 72 hours as the
powerful hurricane approaches the Carolinas. On days 4 and 5, an
even slower motion or drift to the west and northwest is forecast,
which will exacerbate the heavy rainfall threat. The new NHC
forecast track is just an update of the previous one, and basically
lies the middle of the guidance envelope between the consensus
models TVCA to the north and HCCA and FSSE to the south.

Water vapor imagery indicates that Florence has finally developed
the much anticipated dual outflow pattern, with outflow jets noted
in the northwestern and eastern quadrants. The latter outflow jet is
flowing into an upper-level low, which is acting as an impressive
mass sink near 25N/49W. These two outflow channels are producing
significant deformation stretching across Florence's inner-core,
which should aid in the re-strengthening process. Now that the eye
has become stable with a diameter of about 30 n mi and since
Florence is expected to remain in a low-shear environment of around
5 kt and over above-average SSTs of 29.0-29.5 deg C, slow but steady
strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 h and
beyond, Florence's slow forward speed, coupled with the large eye
and relatively shallow depth of the warm water should induce some
upwelling beneath the cyclone that will initiate a slow weakening
trend. By 72 hours the vertical wind shear is expected to increase
to near 20 kt from the southwest, which will cause more significant
weakening to occur. However, given the large overall wind field of
Florence along with the large eye, only gradual weakening is
expected. Once Florence moves inland, the slow forward speed of 3-5
kt will result in rapid spin down and weakening of the wind field.
The new official intensity forecast is above of all of the intensity
guidance based on the aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow
pattern, and to maintain continuity with the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is possible over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
is in effect for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 26.7N 65.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.7N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 29.4N 70.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 31.1N 73.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 32.6N 75.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 35.0N 78.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1200Z 35.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-11 15:31

WTNT31 KNHC 111446
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 65.3W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 65.3 West. Florence
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina in the hurricane watch area Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Florence is expected to begin re-
strengthening later today and continue a slow strengthening trend
for the next day or so. While some weakening is expected on
Thursday, Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30
inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-11 15:31

WTNT21 KNHC 111443
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 65.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 65.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.7N 67.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N 70.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.1N 73.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.6N 75.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 35.0N 78.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-11 12:32

WTNT31 KNHC 111151
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...
...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to
the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United
States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the
North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near
130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. However, Florence is still a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Re-strengthening is forecast to occur during the next day or so, and
Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane
through Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-11 12:32

WTNT31 KNHC 111145
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...
...RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.6 West.
Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).
A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase
in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near
130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. However, Florence is still
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Re-strengthening is forecast to occur during the next day or so,
and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-11 09:32

WTNT41 KNHC 110856
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Recent satellite imagery shows that the eye of Florence has become
cloud filled and an earlier 0441 UTC microwave overpass revealed a
double eyewall structure. These observations suggest that an
eyewall replacement cycle is likely underway. Subjective and
objective Dvorak current intensity numbers have not changed
so the initial intensity will remain 120 kt for this advisory.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is en route to the
storm and should provide a better assessment of Florence's
structure and intensity this morning. NOAA buoy 41049 located
about 80 nmi north of the eye, has reported tropical-storm-force
winds during the last several hours and seas as high as 23 ft.

Florence's upper-level environment is predicted to remain quite
favorable while the storm traverses sea surface temperatures of
around 29C over the next 48 hours. Additional strengthening is
forecast during this time, but some fluctuations in intensity are
likely due to eyewall replacement cycles. The updated NHC intensity
forecast once again calls for additional intensification and brings
Florence to near category 5 strength within the next 24 to 36
hours. After 48 hours, a slight increase in southwesterly
shear could result in some weakening, but Florence is expected to
remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the U.S.
coastline.

Florence has accelerated as anticipated and is now moving
west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 13 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed much. A mid-level ridge to the northeast
of Bermuda is expected steer Florence quickly west-northwestward to
northwestward toward the southeast United States coast over the next
2 to 3 days. By 72 hours, a high pressure ridge building over the
Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes regions is forecast to cause a
significant reduction in Florence's forward speed and the hurricane
is predicted to meander over the eastern portions of North or South
Carolina at days 4 and 5. The ECMWF has trended slower this cycle
at days 4 and 5, and as a result the NHC forecast shows slightly
less motion at those time periods. The spread in the guidance
increases by 72 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean along the
right side of the guidance, while the ECMWF remains along the left
edge. It should be noted that there are still a number of ECMWF
members that are even farther left. The NHC track forecast has been
nudged to the left and is close to the TVCN consensus aid. Given the
amount of uncertainty by day 3, it is important not to focus on the
exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are
about 100, 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards
will extend well away from the center. Storm Surge and Hurricane
watches have been issued for a portion of the coast of South and
North Carolina. Additional watches may be required later today.


Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of this area.
All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region
should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 26.4N 64.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 27.2N 66.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 30.5N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 34.3N 77.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 35.2N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-11 09:32

WTNT31 KNHC 110904 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 48...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Corrected time of next advisory

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to
the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United
States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the
North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.1 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Florence is expected to be an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-11 09:32

WTNT31 KNHC 110855
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to
the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United
States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the
North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.1 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Florence is expected to be an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-11 09:32

WTNT21 KNHC 110853
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM EDISTO BEACH...SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM EDISTO BEACH... SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHWARD TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.2N 66.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 72.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.3N 77.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-11 03:31

WTNT41 KNHC 110242
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

The rapid intensification of Florence ended just after the last
advisory, with the central pressure falling to near 939 mb. Since
that time, the eyewall convection has become a bit ragged and the
latest central pressure from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is near 944 mb. The initial intensity will remain a
possibly generous 120 kt for this advisory based on the aircraft
winds. Microwave imagery suggests that Florence may be starting an
eyewall replacement cycle. However, the winds from the Hurricane
Hunter did not clearly indicate the presence of an outer eyewall.

Florence should remain in a light shear environment and over sea
surface temperatures near 29C for at least the next 48 h. Thus,
there is little other than eyewall replacement cycles to keep the
hurricane from intensifying further as indicated by all of the
intensity guidance. The new intensity forecast calls for continued
strengthening to near category 5 strength, although at a slower rate
than what occurred during the last 30 h. Florence is expected to
encounter southwesterly shear near the 72 h point, which could
cause slight weakening before landfall. However, there remains high
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.

The initial motion is 290/11. A building mid-level ridge over the
northwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Florence
west-northwestward to northwestward with an increase in forward
speed during the next 48 h. After that time, a marked decrease in
forward speed is likely as another ridge builds over the Great
Lakes to the north of Florence. The track guidance continues to
show some spread between the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope
and the GFS on the right side. Overall, though, the guidance has
again shifted a little to the right, and the 72-96 h points are
nudged just a little to the right from the previous forecast. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC
errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi,
respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the
center.

The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance
missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special
0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to
additional upper-air stations across the U.S. to collect extra data
for the numerical models. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission into Florence is scheduled for near 12Z.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 62.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.9N 67.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 73.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 34.0N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0000Z 36.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-11 03:31

WTNT31 KNHC 110241
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are
likely be issued for portions of these areas on Tuesday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 62.4 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion and an increase in forward
speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the
next 36 hours, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous
major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-11 03:31

WTNT21 KNHC 110241
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 62.4W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 62.4W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.9N 67.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.3N 73.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 36.5N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-10 21:31

WTNT41 KNHC 102055
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly
intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second
GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices
rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and
dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial
wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size
of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,
and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment,
and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close
to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind
shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of
eyewall cycles. While the intensity forecast shows some weakening
of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to
grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind
threats. The bottom line is that there is high confidence that
Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane,
regardless of its exact intensity.

Florence has recently turned west-northwestward, still moving at 11
kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate in that direction over
the next day or two due to building mid-level ridge over the
northwestern Atlantic Ocean. By late Wednesday, a turn toward the
northwest is forecast due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge,
along with a decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building
over the Great Lakes. There is a new player in the forecast as
well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding
some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United
States. Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has
increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall. The
official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is
west of the model consensus. It is important not to focus on the
exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about
140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend
well away from the center.

The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance
missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special
0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to
additional upper-air stations across the U.S. are to collect extra
data for the numerical models.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 25.4N 61.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.6N 69.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 35.6N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-10 21:31

WTNT31 KNHC 102053
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TUESDAY
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 61.1W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of these areas by Tuesday morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur late
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will
move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the
Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of South
Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is anticipated,
and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-10 21:31

WTNT21 KNHC 102051
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES COULD
BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 61.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 61.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 60.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.0N 63.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.6N 69.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.7N 77.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 35.6N 78.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 36.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-10 16:31

WTNT61 KNHC 101556
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-10 15:31

WTNT41 KNHC 101450
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane. Satellite images
show that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection
increasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial
wind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more
accurate estimate.

The hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over
the next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F.
In combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast
during that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all
models show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. The
corrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this
intensification episode, and I don't see any reason to deviate much
from them at this time. As Florence approaches the southeastern
United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from
eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field
is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland
wind threats. The bottom line is that there is increasing
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.

During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again,
estimated at 11 kt. The steering currents are becoming well-
defined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the
west-northwest during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday,
a turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of
the Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed
due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. The various
models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus
has barely budged in the past few model cycles. Thus the new NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE
consensus guidance. It is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well
away from the center.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-10 15:31

WTNT31 KNHC 101448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of these areas by Tuesday morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 60.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur
late Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of South
Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Further strengthening is anticipated, and Florence is expected to be
an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-10 15:31

WTNT21 KNHC 101447
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES COULD
BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 60.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 60.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 59.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 60.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-10 10:31

WTNT21 KNHC 100923 CCA
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

CORRECTED TO REFLECT THAT THE 96 HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INLAND

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.3N 66.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.8N 69.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 78.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 58.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-10 09:31

WTNT41 KNHC 100906 CCA
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 44...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Corrected to reflect that the 96 hour forecast point is inland.

Florence is rapidly strengthening this morning. The satellite
presentation has improved markedly overnight with a small 10-n-mi
wide-eye becoming apparent in infrared satellite pictures. The
upper-level outflow continues to expand over the northern and
northwestern portions of the storm, but is somewhat restricted over
the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of around 80 kt at 0600 UTC, but
with the cooling of the cloud tops around the eye since that time,
the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt for this advisory.

Satellite fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-northwestward
(285 degrees), and is moving at a slightly faster forward speed of
8 kt. A high pressure ridge building to the north and northwest of
Florence is expected to steer the hurricane west-northwestward to
northwestward at a much faster forward speed over the southwest
Atlantic during the next few days. After that time, a building
ridge over the Ohio Valley is expected to cause a gradual reduction
in the forward speed of the cyclone as it approaches the
southeastern United States coastline. The latest run of the ECMWF
has shifted southwestward, along with its ensemble suite, while
there was little overall change in the GFS and its ensemble. On
the other hand, the UKMET shifted northeastward and is now along
the right side of the guidance envelope. With these changes to the
guidance, the overall spread has increased this cycle, however, the
corrected consensus aids (FSSE and HCCA) are not much different
than before, and the NHC track again follows these models very
closely. Users are cautioned to not focus on the exact forecast
track as the average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively.

Florence will be traversing very warm SSTs of around 29C and
remain within a very favorable upper-level environment during the
next couple of days. These conditions are expected to lead to
significant strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and
Florence is forecast to be a very powerful major hurricane on
its approach to the southeastern United States. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly above all of the intensity guidance during the
first 24 hours, and is then a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models.
The global model guidance also increases the size of Florence's wind
field during the next few days, and this has been reflected in
the NHC wind radii forecast.

The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting another synoptic surveillance
mission this morning in support of the 1200 UTC model cycle, and
these flights will continue through Tuesday. A NOAA P-3 Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is also scheduled to conduct a research mission
into Florence this morning, with Air Force C-130 fix missions
beginning late this afternoon. Additional upper-air data are
being collected across portions of the central and eastern U.S.
via special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches. Hopefully
these data will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast, freshwater flooding from a
prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event inland, and
damaging hurricane-force winds. While it is too soon to determine
the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these impacts,
interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of Florence,
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 24.9N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 27.3N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.8N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 78.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-10 09:31

WTNT41 KNHC 100859
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Florence is rapidly strengthening this morning. The satellite
presentation has improved markedly overnight with a small 10-n-mi
wide-eye becoming apparent in infrared satellite pictures. The
upper-level outflow continues to expand over the northern and
northwestern portions of the storm, but is somewhat restricted over
the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of around 80 kt at 0600 UTC, but
with the cooling of the cloud tops around the eye since that time,
the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt for this advisory.

Satellite fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-northwestward
(285 degrees), and is moving at a slightly faster forward speed of
8 kt. A high pressure ridge building to the north and northwest of
Florence is expected to steer the hurricane west-northwestward to
northwestward at a much faster forward speed over the southwest
Atlantic during the next few days. After that time, a building
ridge over the Ohio Valley is expected to cause a gradual reduction
in the forward speed of the cyclone as it approaches the
southeastern United States coastline. The latest run of the ECMWF
has shifted southwestward, along with its ensemble suite, while
there was little overall change in the GFS and its ensemble. On
the other hand, the UKMET shifted northeastward and is now along
the right side of the guidance envelope. With these changes to the
guidance, the overall spread has increased this cycle, however, the
corrected consensus aids (FSSE and HCCA) are not much different
than before, and the NHC track again follows these models very
closely. Users are cautioned to not focus on the exact forecast
track as the average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively.

Florence will be traversing very warm SSTs of around 29C and
remain within a very favorable upper-level environment during the
next couple of days. These conditions are expected to lead to
significant strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and
Florence is forecast to be a very powerful major hurricane on
its approach to the southeastern United States. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly above all of the intensity guidance during the
first 24 hours, and is then a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models.
The global model guidance also increases the size of Florence's wind
field during the next few days, and this has been reflected in
the NHC wind radii forecast.

The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting another synoptic surveillance
mission this morning in support of the 1200 UTC model cycle, and
these flights will continue through Tuesday. A NOAA P-3 Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is also scheduled to conduct a research mission
into Florence this morning, with Air Force C-130 fix missions
beginning late this afternoon. Additional upper-air data are
being collected across portions of the central and eastern U.S.
via special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches. Hopefully
these data will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast, freshwater flooding from a
prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event inland, and
damaging hurricane-force winds. While it is too soon to determine
the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these impacts,
interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of Florence,
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 24.9N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 27.3N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.8N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 78.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-10 09:31

WTNT31 KNHC 100853
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 58.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur Wednesday night or Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday
and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern coast of the United
States on Thursday.

Satellite imagery indicates that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast, and Florence is forecast to become a
major hurricane this morning, and is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-10 09:31

WTNT21 KNHC 100853
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.3N 66.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.8N 69.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 78.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 58.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-10 03:31

WTNT41 KNHC 100248
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Florence's satellite appearance has continued to improve quite
markedly since the previous advisory. An eye was evident in GOES-16
high-resolution infrared imagery and other channels between
2300-0000 UTC, but it became cloud covered immediately thereafter
due to a strong burst of deep convection in the southern and eastern
eyewall where cloud tops colder than -80C and an abundance of
lightning activity was observed. Since that time, the CDO has
expanded and become more circular, outflow has increased and become
more symmetrical, and an eye has begun to re-appear. The initial
intensity has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory based on a
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt from SAB and NHC
objective intensity estimates ranging from 77 kt to 87 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Once again, there is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic
reasoning. The models appear to be getting better dialed in on both
the location and strength of the developing blocking ridge in the
vicinity of Bermuda during the next 4 days as the mid-latitude flow
amplifies across the CONUS and the northwestern Atlantic. In fact,
the global models are now in very good agreement on forecasting
Florence's upper-level mass outflow being deposited to the north and
east of the hurricane, which will act to further strengthen the
blocking ridge and help to drive the hurricane northwestward toward
the southeastern U.S. coastal region. The new NHC model guidance is
even more tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with
less than a 90 n mi cross-track spread at 72 h and less than 120 n
mi spread at 96 h, just prior to expected landfall. Therefore, the
new official advisory track is essentially just an update and
extension of the previous forecast, and lies between the nearly
juxtaposed HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus track models.

Now that Florence has developed an inner-core ring of deep
convection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air,
rapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for
the next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind
shear conditions, dual outflow jet pattern that will be developing,
and very warm SSTs of 29-29.5 deg C beneath the hurricane. The most
favorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in
about 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its
maximum intensity. After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to
increase to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest, and the
dual outflow pattern is forecast to change to only a single poleward
outflow pattern. This slight degradation in the upper-level
environment, along with slightly cooler SSTs, is expected to result
in a gradual weakening of the powerful cyclone. However, Florence is
still forecast to be near category-4 strength when the dangerous
hurricane makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is an
average of the intensity forecast from the corrected consensus
models HCCA and FSSE, with the latter explicitly forecasting a peak
intensity of 134 kt in 72 hours. It is also worth noting that the
model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
forecast reflects this trend.

The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct another synoptic surveillance
mission early Monday morning in support of the 1200 UTC model
cycle, and these flights will continue through Tuesday. In addition,
upper-air stations across portions of the central and eastern U.S.
are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches to
collect extra data for the numerical models. Hopefully these data
will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 24.6N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.2N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 34.0N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 35.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-10 03:31

WTNT31 KNHC 100247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 57.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 57.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue tonight. A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast
to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday night, and is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-10 03:31

WTNT21 KNHC 100247
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 57.7W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 57.7W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 57.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.2N 73.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 34.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.2N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 57.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-09 21:32

WTNT41 KNHC 092053
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

The last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen
to about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with
uncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite
presentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep
convection near the center. Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on
this advisory.

Radar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicated that there were
still a few breaks in the eyewall, possibly allowing some dry air to
mix into the core. This structure has potentially kept Florence
from intensifying rapidly so far. It is likely, however, that the
eyewall will close soon with low environmental shear present,
resulting in a faster intensification rate. The guidance is
remarkably well clustered, with all of the hurricane models showing
category 4 strength within 48 hours, which is uncommon given the
current intensity. The new forecast continues to show rapid
intensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods,
but it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or
the NOAA corrected consensus models. It is worth noting that the
model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
forecast reflects this trend.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Florence hasn't gained
much latitude yet, and continues moving westward at about 6 kt.
There is no change to the synoptic reason as a very strong ridge is
forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few
days. This pattern should steer Florence west-northwestward at a
much faster forward speed by Tuesday. On Wednesday, the hurricane
will likely turn northwestward and slow down somewhat due to another
ridge forming over the Ohio Valley. The most notable change from
the previous advisory is that most of the models are showing a
faster motion in 3 or 4 days, which unfortunately increases the risk
of a destructive hurricane landfall. The GFS and its ensemble mean
are outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near
the Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the
southwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of
the ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the
southwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus
far this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a
little bit to the southwest, and is very close to the
corrected-consensus models.

The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission this
afternoon to gather data near and around Florence for assimilation
into the numerical models, and these missions will continue through
Tuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the
central and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800
UTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical
models. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and
intensity forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-09 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 092045
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 57.0W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 57.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday.

Aircraft and satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence
is forecast to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday,
and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane
through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). Florence is forecast to become larger over the next few
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
and satellite data is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-09 21:32

WTNT21 KNHC 092042
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 56.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-09 15:31

WTNT41 KNHC 091450
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Satellite images indicate that Florence is strengthening. Deep
convection has intensified in the central dense overcast, with
hints of a ragged eye in the latest GOES-16 visible channel. The
NOAA Hurricane Hunters just flew through the eye, finding 70 kt
winds at flight-level and 66 kt from the SFMR. This data confirms
that Florence has become a hurricane again, and the initial wind
speed is set to 65 kt. The aircraft also found that the minimum
pressure has decreased to 984 mb.

Overnight microwave data and the Hurricane Hunter vortex message
show that a mostly complete eyewall has formed with Florence. In
combination with low vertical wind shear and progressively warmer
waters near 29C, this structure is a blueprint for rapid
intensification. Almost all of the intensity guidance is showing at
least one period of rapid strengthening during the next few days,
which is rather rare. The NHC wind speed forecast is raised in the
first couple of days following the guidance trend, then is very
similar to the previous one. All indications are that Florence will
be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane while it moves over
the western Atlantic toward the southeastern United States.

Florence continues moving slowly westward, caught between a pair
of mid-level ridges over the Atlantic Ocean. A very strong ridge is
forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few
days, which should steer Florence west-northwestward at a much
faster forward speed. By Wednesday, the hurricane should turn
northwestward, and slow down somewhat due to another ridge forming
over the Ohio Valley. It is interesting to note that while the
ensemble means from the ECMWF and UKMET are west of the NHC
forecast, the strongest members are on the right side of their
ensemble envelope. Thus, the new NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous one, and continues to lie between the corrected
consensus and consensus aids. The Ohio Valley ridge is concerning
because Florence could stop moving pretty quickly around day 5,
potentially leading to a serious heavy rain episode and inland flood
hazard.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 24.4N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 24.5N 57.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 29.0N 70.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 32.2N 75.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-09 15:31

WTNT31 KNHC 091448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 56.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4
North, longitude 56.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west near
6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue
through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern
U.S. coast on Thursday.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast
to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday, and is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-09 15:31

WTNT21 KNHC 091443
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 56.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 56.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 56.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 57.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.0N 70.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N 75.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 56.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-09 09:32

WTNT41 KNHC 090844
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

Florence's cloud pattern has continued to gradually become better
organized overnight, with an increase in convection near the center
and a developing central dense overcast feature. However, the
cloud tops are not particularly cold and the outer banding features
remain fragmented likely due to some nearby dry mid-level air.
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55 to 65
kt, so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, just shy of hurricane
strength. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
the storm later today, and that data should provide a better
assessment of Florence's intensity.

The upper-level outflow is becoming well established over the
cyclone, and the global model guidance indicates that Florence
will remain in a very favorable upper-level environment while the
cyclone moves over the warm waters over the southwestern
Atlantic. These conditions favor strengthening with the only
apparent negative factor being nearby dry air, which will likely
remain away from the inner core due to the low shear conditions.
The NHC intensity forecast again calls for a period of rapid
strengthening within the next 12-36 hours, and Florence is forecast
to become a major hurricane on Monday with additional strengthening
early in the week. This means that Florence is likely to be a very
powerful hurricane as it moves over the western Atlantic toward the
southeastern United States. The new NHC intensity forecast is near
the various intensity consensus aids and is very similar to the
previous official forecast.

Florence is currently located between a couple of mid-level ridges
and a slow westward motion is expected today. Another strong
high pressure ridge is forecast to build to the north of Florence
on Monday, which should cause the storm to begin moving
west-northwestward to northwestward at an increasingly faster
forward speed. The dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered
for the first 2-3 days with increasing spread thereafter. The GFS
remains along the right side of the guidance envelope with the HWRF
and ECMWF bracketing the left edge. It should be noted that both
the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are a little to the left or west
of their operational runs. As a result, the NHC track forecast
lies to the left of the TVCA multi-model consensus, but is not as
far to the west as the FSSE and HCCA corrected consensus models at
day 5. The models are in agreement that Florence is likely to slow
down near the end of the forecast period as a blocking high
pressure ridge builds to the north of the hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late this week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 25.3N 60.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 28.2N 69.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 34.4N 77.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-09 09:32

WTNT31 KNHC 090843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is expected to become a hurricane today and rapid
intensification is likely to begin by tonight. Florence is forecast
to become a major hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-09 09:32

WTNT21 KNHC 090843
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 55.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 30SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 55.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 55.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 56.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.3N 60.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.2N 69.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.4N 77.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 55.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-09 03:31

WTNT41 KNHC 090252
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern has continued to
gradually become better organized with an eye feature trying to
form. An average of all of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
tonight suggest that Florence is not a hurricane yet, but is close
to being one. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this
advisory. The recent ASCAT data showed less winds than previously
observed by the NOAA plane when the cloud pattern was less
organized.

There is a band of convection trying to wrap around a possible eye
feature, and that is an indication that Florence has continued to
recover from the hostile shear environment, which brought the
hurricane from Category 4 to a tropical storm in a matter of a day
or so. The presence of developing upper-level outflow is a
good indication that the shear has decreased, and with the presence
of a warm ocean ahead, strengthening is anticipated. As indicated
by my predecessor, the official forecast continues to call for a
period of rapid intensification in about 12-24 hours, and Florence
is expected to reach major hurricane intensity between 36-48 hours
with additional strengthening thereafter. Florence is forecast to
be an intense hurricane on days 3 through 5 as it moves across the
warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas
and Bermuda, and then as it heads toward the southeast United States
coast.

Florence is still trapped within very light steering currents,
and is slowly moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 5 kt.
All indications are that this is about to change, as a strong ridge
of high pressure builds to the north of the hurricane. This
forecast flow pattern predicted by the global models will force
Florence on a general west-northwest to northwest track with an
increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of
the previous one, and is in the middle of the narrow guidance
envelope mainly for the next 3 to 4 days. By the end of the
forecast period, when the hurricane is approaching the U.S. coast,
the guidance envelope is wider and becomes bounded by the
northernmost GFS and the southernmost HCCA and the FSSE ensembles.
One thing all models coincide at the longer range is with the
collapsing of the steering currents, resulting in a significant
reduction of the forward speed of the hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue into next week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 55.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.5N 55.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 25.2N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 25.8N 61.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 27.5N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 33.8N 77.8W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-09 03:31

WTNT31 KNHC 090251
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...FLORENCE STILL MOVING SLOWLY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 55.2W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 55.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected by the middle of next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is expected to become a hurricane at any time soon
and rapid intensification is likely to begin on Sunday. Florence is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-09 03:31

WTNT21 KNHC 090250
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 55.2W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT.......110NE 40SE 30SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 55.2W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.5N 55.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.2N 59.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.8N 61.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.8N 77.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 55.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-08 21:32

WTNT41 KNHC 082045
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

A NOAA P3 aircraft conducted a research mission several hours ago
in Florence and measured SFMR surface winds of around 60 kt and
winds up to 65 kt at a flight level of 8000 feet. Velocities of
65-70 kt at 500 meters were also measured by the Doppler radar on
the plane. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is raised to
60 kt. Dropsonde data also showed that the central pressure was
down to 989 mb.

Florence is slowly recovering from the dry air its circulation
ingested while it was under the influence of strong shear.
Convection in the outer bands is relatively thin but is deeper and
more persistent near the center. Now that the shear has decreased
and the warm waters ahead of Florence reach deeper into the ocean,
continued strengthening is anticipated. In fact, the official
forecast continues to show a period of rapid intensification, now
beginning 12-24 hours, with Florence reaching major hurricane
intensity between 36-48 hours. One fly in the ointment is that the
SHIPS diagnostics are keeping mid-level relative humidities around
the cyclone around 50 percent, which isn't particularly moist, but
I'm going to assume that Florence will be able to scour out the dry
air within its circulation in the coming days. The HCCA model and
the ICON intensity consensus support maintaining a forecast peak
intensity of 125 kt in 4 days or so, so no significant changes were
made from the previous forecast. Regardless of the specifics of
the other models--some of which are higher and some of which are
lower--Florence is expected to be a powerful major hurricane on
days 3 through 5 as it moves across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Florence is creeping westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt, trapped
between high pressure to its northeast and southwest. A different
blocking ridge is expected to develop north and northeast of
Bermuda over the next few days, causing Florence to accelerate
toward the west-northwest and northwest between days 3-5. There
have been some notable shifts in the model guidance on this cycle,
with the ECMWF model swinging to the northeast closer to the GFS,
and the HWRF model swinging farther south along the southern edge
of the guidance envelope. Despite this change in the deterministic
ECMWF run, its individual ensemble members are still showing a
significant spread of solutions from just north of the Bahamas to
offshore the coast of North Carolina by day 5. Because of this
spread, the updated NHC track forecast largely maintains
continuity and remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.
And despite the ECMWF's shift, this track prediction remains north
of the HCCA and FSSE solutions.

Key Messages:

1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue into next week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.7N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-08 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 082043
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 54.7W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected by the middle of next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is expected to become a hurricane tonight, and
rapid intensification is likely to begin on Sunday. Florence could
become a major hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

Data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the minimum central
pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-08 21:32

WTNT21 KNHC 082043
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT.......110NE 40SE 30SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.7N 56.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.9N 66.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 54.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-08 15:31

WTNT41 KNHC 081453
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Florence has undergone a dramatic structural evolution just within
the past 6 hours or so. Vertical shear has decreased just enough
for the storm to take on a more symmetric shape, with convection
developing in a ring around the low-level center, and an elongated
band wrapping around to the northeastern part of the circulation.
The convection has waned a little bit in intensity, however, due to
the presence of dry air, and Dvorak estimates support maintaining
an initial intensity of 55 kt for now. A NOAA P-3 aircraft is
approaching Florence now on a research mission and should provide
some useful data to better assess the storm's intensity.

Recent WindSat microwave data revealed that Florence has a
well-defined low-level ring in the 37-GHz channel, which tends to
be a harbinger of strengthening when environmental conditions are
favorable. Since vertical shear is decreasing and should be 10 kt
or less by later today, and Florence is heading toward a deeper
pool of warm water over the southwestern Atlantic, a significant
phase of intensification is likely to begin by tonight, continuing
through Tuesday or Wednesday. In fact, the official intensity
forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification occurring between
24 and 48 hours from now, and Florence is expected to become a
major hurricane by Monday. The HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and
the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE), both of which tend to do
well in these scenarios, are both near the upper end of the guidance
suite, especially through day 3. Even by days 4 and 5, the HWRF,
HMON, and ICON intensity consensus are near the top end of the
guidance, close to HCCA and FSSE. Given the signals in the
environment, and the solutions provided by these models, the NHC
intensity forecast shows Florence reaching category 4 intensity by
day 3 and maintains that through the end of the forecast period.

Florence's longer-term motion is 265/6 kt. The cyclone appears to
be slowing down as was expected, and this type of motion is likely
to continue for the next 24-36 hours. In fact, the track guidance
has slowed down during this period, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous one. After 36 hours,
the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in
the 06Z GFS. However, that run appears to be an outlier from the
rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight
westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids. The updated NHC
track forecast is therefore very close to or slightly west of the
previous forecast on days 4 and 5. The exact path of Florence as it
approaches the southeastern U.S. coastline will depend heavily on
the position and strength of the blocking high pressure that is
expected to develop north of Bermuda and extend westward over the
eastern U.S., and so far there has not been much more clarity on
those important details.

Key Messages:

1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect
portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.6N 56.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.1N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 64.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 31.5N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-08 15:31

WTNT31 KNHC 081452
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 54.3W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 54.3 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected by the middle of next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday
and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts, but Florence is likely to restrengthen to a hurricane by
tonight. Rapid intensification is expected to start on Sunday, and
Florence is forecast to be a major hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will
reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-08 15:31

WTNT21 KNHC 081452
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 54.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 54.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.6N 56.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.1N 59.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.3N 64.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 54.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-08 09:31

WTNT41 KNHC 080845
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Although Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone, satellite
imagery during the past 6 h also indicates that the shear has
started to abate somewhat, which has allowed the dense cirrus
canopy to build back over the previously exposed low-level
circulation center. Furthermore, deep convection with overshooting
cloud tops near -80C and an abundance of lightning activity have
developed very close to the center. Based on these data along with
Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, the
initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 265/8 kt. The mid-latitude flow
across CONUS and the northern Atlantic is forecast to flatten out
and become more zonal over the next 48 h or so, resulting in the
development of a narrow east-west oriented ridge along 35/36N
latitude. This large-scale feature is expected to steer Florence
in a general westward direction during that time. By days 3-5,
however, the flow across the central and western U.S. is forecast
to buckle and become more meridional as a deep mid-/upper-level
trough over the northeast Pacific pushes inland over the western
U.S., causing downstream ridging over the northeastern U.S. and
northwestern Atlantic. The global models agree on this general
change in the synoptic-scale flow pattern, but they differ
noticeably on where a downstream mid-/upper-level high pressure cell
takes up residence over the Atlantic either to the northwest or
northeast of Bermuda. The farther west/east the high develops will
determine how far west/east Florence will eventually move and
possibly affect the U.S. east coast beyond the 5-day forecast
period. The new official forecast track is close to the previous
advisory track through 48 h, and then was nudged a little to the
left or west of the previous track, which is close to the consensus
model TVCN and is north of the corrected-consensus models FSSE and
HCCA since the bulk of the NHC model guidance lies north of those
latter two models.

The upper-level environment is expected to improve to significantly
during the next 12 h and beyond with the current 20 kt of
southwesterly shear forecast to give way to shear of less than 10
kt. By 72 h and beyond, light shear from the southeast and east
along with the development of strong upper-level outflow jets to
the north of Florence is expected to create an environment that
favors significant and possibly even rapid strengthening. The new
NHC intensity forecast has been increased over the previous advisory
in anticipation of these very favorable dynamical conditions
developing, and now shows Florence becoming a hurricane by Sunday
and a major hurricane in 3 days, followed by additional
strengthening over the very warm Atlantic waters of at least 29 deg
C that are about 2 deg C above normal right now. The consensus
models IVCN and HCCA were closely followed, which are a little
below the FSSE model.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are
affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S.
East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-08 09:31

WTNT31 KNHC 080845
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...FLORENCE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (14 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple days. A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
by early next week and continue into middle part of next week. On
the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the warm
waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual restrengthening is forecast over the weekend, and
Florence is expected to become a hurricane again by Sunday and a
major hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will
reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-08 09:31

WTNT21 KNHC 080844
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 54.2W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 54.2W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 54.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-08 03:31

WTNT41 KNHC 080251
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite images
indicate that the low-level center is partially exposed on the
southwesterly edge of a large convective mass, with the overall
circulation somewhat elongated from southwest to northeast.
A blend of the latest Dvorak wind speed estimates from TAFB/SAB and
the CIMSS SATCON gives a value of 50 kt for this advisory.

While the winds at 200 mb are already from an easterly direction
near the center of Florence, there is significant shear from
northwesterly winds from 300-500 mb, undercutting the outflow layer.
This shear is forecast to relax by the global models over the next
36 hours as an anticyclone builds to the north of the storm, which
should promote some strengthening by Sunday. After 48 hours, the
deep-layer flow becomes easterly near the cyclone, with very little
shear while the system is over very warm waters. This pattern
favors significant intensification, and most of the guidance brings
Florence back to a category 4 hurricane in 4 or 5 days. The
intensity forecast is very similar to the last one, and is raised
slightly at days 3 and 4 to come into better agreement with the
guidance. It is interesting to note that even with a lower initial
intensity, the guidance is higher than the last cycle, which speaks
to the strength of the signal for intensification in the long range.

The initial motion estimate is 265 degrees at 6 kt. Florence is
expected to continue moving slowly westward for the next 48 hours
under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge over the western
Atlantic. By days 4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge
is forecast to develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S. and
build westward, keeping Florence on a west-northwestward trajectory
with a notable increase in forward speed by the end of the forecast
period. It feels like a broken record to mention that the overall
guidance envelope keeps shifting southwestward, and the official
forecast is moved in that direction. Unfortunately with such a
large well-defined steering current from the ridge becoming likely,
the extended-range risk to the United States keeps rising, which is
confirmed by the majority of the latest ensemble guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are
affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S.
East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 24.8N 53.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 54.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 24.7N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 24.7N 56.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 25.0N 57.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 25.8N 62.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 27.5N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 30.5N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-08 03:31

WTNT31 KNHC 080250
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 53.2W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 53.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the early-to-middle part of next week. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the waters of the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during
the next day or so, but restrengthening is forecast over the
weekend. Florence is forecast to become a hurricane again Sunday
and a major hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will
reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-08 03:31

WTNT21 KNHC 080250
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 53.2W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 53.2W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 52.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 54.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N 55.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 56.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 57.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.8N 62.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 53.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-07 21:32

WTNT41 KNHC 072049
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Little has changed with Florence's structure during the day. The
low-level center is located on the southwestern side of the deep
convection due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear, and
satellite intensity estimates are essentially the same from this
morning. Therefore, the estimated maximum winds remain 55 kt.
NOAA is scheduled to conduct a research mission with the P-3
aircraft tomorrow, which should provide some useful wind data and
give us a better handle on the cyclone's intensity.

Vertical shear is still expected to gradually decrease over the
next day or two, likely reaching values of 10 kt or less by 48
hours. During this period, Florence should become more vertically
stacked, which would allow for some reintensification, possibly back
to hurricane strength within 36-48 hours. After 48 hours, the shear
is expected to remain generally low, and oceanic heat content values
will increase significantly as Florence moves over the waters
between Bermuda and the northern Leeward Islands. This is a
classic recipe for a quick intensification trend, and Florence is
expected to become a major hurricane by days 4 and 5. The
generally skillful HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and ICON
intensity consensus are all near 110-115 kt by day 5, and because
of this, no notable changes were required from the previous
official intensity forecast.

Florence has been moving south of due west (260 degrees) at 7 kt,
located south of a low- to mid-level ridge. The cyclone is
expected to continue moving generally westward for the next 48
hours while it remains sheared. As Florence begins to strengthen
and become vertically stacked after 48 hours, it should begin to
turn west-northwestward, steered by a deeper flow regime. By days
4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge is forecast to
develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S., keeping Florence
on a west-northwestward trajectory with an increase in forward
speed by the end of the forecast period. A slight southwestward
adjustment was made to the NHC forecast to account for Florence's
initial motion and a slight shift in the overall guidance envelope.
For most of the forecast period, the official forecast is close to
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are
affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S. East
Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 24.8N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 24.6N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 24.6N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 24.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 25.8N 60.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 30.5N 73.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-07 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 072048
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...FLORENCE POISED TO STRENGTHEN...
...THIS WEEKEND IS A GOOD TIME FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST TO REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 52.5W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 52.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the early to middle part of next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the waters of
the southwestern Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day
or so, but restrengthening is forecast over the weekend. Florence
could become a hurricane again by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will
reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-07 21:32

WTNT21 KNHC 072048
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 52.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 52.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 52.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.6N 53.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 54.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.8N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.8N 60.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 52.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-07 15:32

WTNT41 KNHC 071447
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Moderate to strong southwesterly shear continues to affect Florence,
but visible and microwave satellite images indicate that the
cyclone is maintaining a vigorous, but tilted, circulation.
A mid-level eye feature is noted in both types of satellite
imagery, but the low-level center still appears displaced to the
southwest. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
have stopped falling--and some have even begun to increase a bit
again--so the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt.

The shear over Florence has likely reached its maximum and is
expected to decrease below 20 kt in 6-12 hours and then decrease to
10 kt or less in 36 hours. All the while, sea surface temperatures
will be gradually increasing to between 28-29C, and perhaps more
importantly, oceanic heat content values will double in 3-4 days.
It may take the cyclone some time to gather itself once the shear
abates, but once it becomes vertically stacked again, the intensity
is likely to increase significantly. The guidance is in agreement
on this scenario, and Florence is likely to re-attain hurricane
status in about 48 hours and then potentially major hurricane
strength by days 4-5. The new official forecast is fairly similar
to the previous one, generally close to the ICON intensity consensus
and slightly below the HCCA model on days 4 and 5.

Florence is moving westward, or 270/7 kt, to the south of the
eastern periphery of a subtropical ridge extending east of the
Mid-Atlantic United States. The global model guidance is actually
in fairly good agreement on the general evolution of the steering
pattern around Florence through day 5. While it remains a tilted
cyclone, Florence is expected to continue moving westward for the
next 48 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge should allow
Florence to turn west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic.
A new mid-level ridge is expected to develop over the western
Atlantic on days 4-5, but the position of that high will play a big
role regarding how much Florence may turn by the end of the
forecast period. Only a slight southward nudge of forecast track
was required on this cycle, keeping the NHC prediction between the
GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin
to affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast
this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 25.0N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 24.9N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 24.9N 54.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 24.9N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.1N 56.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 25.9N 59.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 27.5N 65.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-07 15:32

WTNT31 KNHC 071442
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...FLORENCE'S WEAKENING APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR THE MOMENT...
...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 51.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 51.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday. A west-northwestward
motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day
or so, but restrengthening is forecast over the weekend. Florence
could become a hurricane again by Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda
later today and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-07 15:32

WTNT21 KNHC 071441
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.9N 52.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.9N 54.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.9N 55.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 56.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.9N 59.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 51.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-07 09:32

WTNT41 KNHC 070850
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Florence's structure continues to be negatively affected by strong
southwesterly shear. Cloud tops have generally warmed over the
past 6 hours, and recent microwave data show that the low-level
circulation center of Florence is displaced nearly 20 nmi to the
southwest of the mid-level center. Satellite intensity estimates
have decreased since last night, and now support an initial
intensity of 55 kt.

Based on GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostic output, the southwesterly
shear is near its peak now, and should gradually decrease over the
next 24 to 36 h. All of the intensity guidance shows little change
in intensity through that time. From 48 h onward, a low shear/warm
SST environment should allow the tropical storm to re-strengthen.
However, the extent and timing of the strengthening varies greatly
from model to model, with the dynamical models generally showing
more intensification, and sooner, than the statistical models. As
has been the case for most of Florence's existence thus far,
confidence in the intensity forecast, especially beyond 36 h, is
low. The new official forecast is a little lower than the previous
advisory for the first 48 h, but close to it after that, and lies
between the more aggressive HCCA and less aggressive IVCN consensus
aids.

Nighttime Proxy-Vis and earlier microwave imagery indicate that
Florence has turned westward, with an estimated initial motion of
275/6 kt. Most of the track guidance has shifted slightly toward the
southwest, so the NHC track forecast has also been nudged in that
direction. Over the next 3 days of the forecast, Florence should be
steered generally westward, and then west-northwestward, by a
mid-level ridge to its north. By days 4 and 5, a developing
mid-latitude trough could create a weakness in this ridge and allow
Florence to move more toward the northwest, but there is still
considerable uncertainty in the global models and their ensembles
regarding the strength of the ridge and if the aforementioned trough
will have any notable impact on the track of Florence. The NHC
forecast follows HCCA very closely, and is also near the middle of
the large combined envelope of the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin
to affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast
this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track
beyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other
impacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week.

3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good
time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 25.1N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 25.1N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 25.0N 53.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 25.0N 54.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 25.1N 55.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 26.2N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 27.5N 63.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 30.0N 70.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-07 09:32

WTNT31 KNHC 070849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 50.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 50.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion
will likely continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected today.
However, Florence is forecast to restrengthen and become a hurricane
again over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda
later today and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-07 09:32

WTNT21 KNHC 070848
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 50.7W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 50.7W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 50.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.1N 51.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.0N 53.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 54.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.2N 58.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 50.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-07 03:31

WTNT41 KNHC 070254
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

Deep convection near the center of Florence has continued to
decrease during the past several hours, and the overall cloud
pattern remains elongated from southwest to northeast. The latest
Dvorak estimates and a recent scatterometer pass suggest that
Florence is no longer a hurricane, and the initial wind speed is
set to 60 kt.

Some further weakening is anticipated since the shear isn't forecast
to change much in the short term. However, all of the global models
show a significant reduction of shear during the next several days,
especially later this weekend. In combination with waters warming
to near 29C, these conditions should promote strengthening into a
hurricane again in a day or two and a major hurricane by early next
week. The intensity guidance is higher than the last cycle at long
range, which is hard to argue with considering the large upper-level
anticyclone forecast in the vicinity of Florence. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous prediction, a bit
elevated from the previous forecast at days 4 and 5, although still
below the intensity guidance.

A recent scatterometer pass indicates that Florence has slowed down
and turned left, estimated at 290/6. A narrow ridge over the
subtropical Atlantic Ocean should continue to turn the storm
westward overnight, albeit traveling at a relatively slow pace due
to the strength of the ridge. This ridge is forecast is strengthen
at long range, steering Florence faster to the west-northwest over
the western Atlantic Ocean. Except for the UKMET, most of the
historically reliable guidance is in reasonable agreement on this
scenario, which is a bit surprising given the recent trials and
tribulations from the guidance suite. The models continue to shift
westward at long range, however, owing to differences on the
strength and position of that ridge, and the official NHC track
forecast is moved in that direction.


Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin
to affect Bermuda on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this
weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track
beyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other
impacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week.

3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good
time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 25.1N 49.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 25.2N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 25.2N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 25.2N 53.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 25.3N 54.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 26.1N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 27.6N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 30.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-07 03:31

WTNT31 KNHC 070241
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 49.8W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 49.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn
toward the west is forecast on Friday. A slow westward motion is
expected over the weekend, with a possible turn toward the
west-northwest on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated on Friday,
followed by a slow increase in wind speed over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on
Friday and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-07 03:31

WTNT21 KNHC 070241
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 49.8W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 49.8W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.2N 50.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.2N 52.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.2N 53.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.3N 54.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.1N 57.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.6N 62.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 49.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-06 21:31

WTNT41 KNHC 062044
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

Vertical shear has taken its toll on Florence today as evidenced by
a continued degradation of the overall cloud pattern. The
circulation appears tilted, with the low-level center partially
exposed to the southwest of the deep convection. Subjective and
objective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers have fallen, and a
blend of the various estimates supports an initial intensity of 70
kt.

The intensity forecast is relatively straightforward in the
short-term as shear is expected to remain strong, which should
continue Florence's weakening trend, potentially taking the system
below hurricane strength. By 24 hours, vertical shear is forecast
to decrease, and the SSTs gradually warm along the forecast track.
Assuming the overall circulation remains intact, Florence shouldn't
have any problems restrengthening beginning in a day or so. In
fact, guidance suggests that Florence could once again become a
major hurricane in 4 or 5 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one, and is only adjusted to
account for recent trends. Largely, the official forecast is close
to the various consensus aids.

Owing to the degraded structure and tilted nature of the system,
Florence has wobbled a bit to the west, but the longer-term motion
estimate is 305/09. Low- to mid-level ridging should cause
Florence to turn toward the west-northwest and west between 12-48
hours while the cyclone recovers from the strong shear. Thereafter,
Florence is anticipated to become a deep cyclone again, but an even
stronger ridge should maintain the west-northwestward motion, at a
faster speed, through day 5. The ridge is forecast to be
sufficiently strong such that some track models show a motion just
south of due west during the next 12-36 hours. Beyond day 3, the
track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to differing
evolutions of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic. While
all of the global models show a progressive trough eroding the
ridge, they differ in the strength of the trough and the ridge to
the north of Florida. These differences result in a great deal of
bifurcation in the track guidance, especially among global model
ensemble members, at the end of the forecast period. In such
situations, prudence suggests a reliance on continuity, and the the
new official NHC track forecast is shifted only slightly south
towards the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA. It is important to
note that deterministic track models in these types of situations
often display considerable run-to-run changes, and the uncertainty
in this forecast remains larger than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin
to affect Bermuda on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this
weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track
beyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other
impacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week.

3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good
time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 25.0N 49.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 25.5N 53.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 25.6N 54.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 26.4N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 30.0N 67.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

2018-09-06 21:31

WTNT31 KNHC 062043
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

...FLORENCE CLINGING TO HURRICANE STATUS...
...EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 49.6W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 49.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn
towards the west is expected tomorrow. A westward to
west-northwestward motion should continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next day or so
followed by restrengthening late Friday into this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on
Friday and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

2018-09-06 21:31

WTNT21 KNHC 062042
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.5N 53.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.6N 54.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 57.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 49.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/RHOME

2018-09-06 15:31

WTNT41 KNHC 061439
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

Vertical shear has increased since yesterday, which has caused a
degradation of Florence's structure and a decrease in its maximum
winds. The cloud-filled eye has been eroded over the past hour or
so, and the deep convection is no longer symmetric, with the
low-level circulation peeking out from under the higher clouds.
Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB have fallen to T5.0-5.5 (90-100
kt), while the objective numbers from UW-CIMSS support 70-90 kt.
The initial intensity is set at 90 kt, near the middle of this wide
range of estimates.

The intensity forecast has been somewhat of a self-defeating
prophecy due to the nuances of the environmental shear. Even though
Florence was able to rapidly intensify yesterday in an area just
south of a zone of strong shear, the hurricane's stronger-than-
expected intensity caused it to move more poleward, into that
stronger shear. Right now, shear analyses range anywhere from
25-30 kt, and the latest available guidance suggests that this
level of shear should continue for another 12-24 hours. As a
result, continued weakening is forecast over the next day or so.
After 36 hours, Florence is likely to encounter an upper-level
environment that is more conducive for reintensification. The NHC
forecast is adjusted downward toward the newest consensus aids,
especially during the first 48 hours, but it still shows Florence
reaching major hurricane strength again by days 4 and 5.

Florence's forward motion has slowed just a little to 9 kt toward
the northwest (315 degrees). A mid-level ridge is building to the
north, which is likely to cause the hurricane to turn westward by
36 hours, with that motion continuing through about day 3. After
that time, there is still considerable uncertainty in the evolution
of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic, especially on day
4. On one hand, the GFS and HWRF dig a strong shortwave trough over
Atlantic Canada by Monday, creating a break in the ridge which would
allow Florence to turn northwestward. On the other hand, the ECMWF
and UKMET both have weaker troughs and maintain stronger ridging
over the northwestern Atlantic, allowing Florence to maintain a
westward or west-northwestward course. All the models show a
mid-level high over the western Atlantic by Tuesday. Due to typical
biases among these models in the part of the Atlantic, we prefer to
be between the GFS and ECMWF solutions at this time, which places
the official NHC track forecast close to the TVCN multi-model
consensus and just north of HCCA.

There is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence's
track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time
ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts
Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of
Florence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane
will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East
Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 24.6N 48.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 25.2N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 25.6N 51.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 25.6N 52.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.3N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 28.0N 59.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 29.5N 65.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-06 15:31

WTNT31 KNHC 061438
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENS FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 48.6W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 48.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest and west with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through Saturday. Florence may begin to move faster toward
the west-northwest over the western Atlantic early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next day or two. However, Florence is expected to remain a
hurricane and likely reintensify over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on
Friday and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-06 15:31

WTNT21 KNHC 061438
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 48.6W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 48.6W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.2N 49.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.6N 51.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 52.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.3N 56.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 29.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-06 09:32

WTNT41 KNHC 060846
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

Southwesterly shear continues to affect Florence. Since the last
advisory, the cloud pattern has become more asymmetric, and cloud
tops surrounding the ragged eye have warmed. AMSR imagery around
0430 UTC indicated that the hurricane's eye is tilted slightly
southwest to northeast with height, but the low- to mid-level
inner-core was mostly intact. Based on an average of Final-T and
CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been lowered
to 100 kt, and objective estimates are even lower.

Given the wind shear and current appearance of Florence, additional
weakening in the short-term seems likely, and all of the intensity
guidance agrees. From 24-72 h, the spread increases with the
statistical models generally showing continued gradual weakening for
another day or two, while the dynamical models show little change or
slight restrengthening. By day 5, all of the guidance calls for
Florence to restrengthen. The guidance envelope and consensus is
lower with this model cycle, but the NHC intensity forecast has only
been adjusted slightly lower, mainly in the first 72 h of the
forecast. The official forecast is now a little above the IVCN
intensity consensus and HCCA at most forecast hours, generally
favoring the stronger solution of the dynamical models.

Florence has continued to track northwestward, and the initial
motion is 315/10 kt. The cyclone is still forecast to gradually
turn westward over the next 48 h, in response to a building
mid-level ridge to its north. Beyond that time, a mid-latitude
trough over the northwestern Atlantic could create enough of a
weakness in the ridge to steer the hurricane farther north, closer
to Bermuda, as shown by the latest GFS. However, the ECMWF and
UKMET suggest that the ridge will not be significantly affected, and
Florence will move more westward. The ensembles from the GFS and
ECMWF do not clearly favor one solution over another, and in fact
many members track Florence somewhere in-between. While little
change was made to the previous forecast and the new official track
forecast remains close to the various consensus aids, the model
spread has increased and confidence in the forecast is low.

There is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence's
track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time
ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts
Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of
Florence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane
will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East
Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 24.1N 47.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 24.8N 49.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 25.6N 52.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 25.6N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.1N 56.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 27.2N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 29.0N 63.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-06 09:32

WTNT31 KNHC 060843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENING FOR NOW BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 47.9W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 47.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
later today, followed by a turn toward the west by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is
forecast today, but Florence is expected to remain a strong
hurricane for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on
Friday and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-06 09:32

WTNT21 KNHC 060842
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 47.9W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 47.9W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 47.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.8N 49.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N 52.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 53.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.1N 56.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 29.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 47.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-06 03:32

WTNT41 KNHC 060250
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

It appears that southwesterly shear is finally affecting Florence.
The cloud pattern has become asymmetric this evening, with the
northeastern quadrant growing at the expense of the southwestern
one, along with warming cloud tops noted across the central dense
overcast. Satellite intensity estimates are a bit lower than
before, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 110 kt.

The current shear is forecast to persist by the global models during
the next day or two until an upper-level low cuts off to south of
Florence, which will likely reduce the shear. This, in combination
with much warmer waters in the path of the hurricane, should set the
stage for restrengthening. At long range, a rather large upper-level
anticyclone is forecast to form near Florence, which would provide
ample opportunity for the hurricane to regain its former strength
and grow in size. Thus, the official forecast shows slow weakening
in response to the initial shear, then levels off, with a
significant increase in strength predicted by day 5. This solution
is very close to the previous NHC advisory, but not quite as high as
the HWRF and HMON models at long range.

Florence has been moving more to the right during the past several
hours, likely due to the vortex attempting to stay vertically
aligned in the face of the southwesterly shear, but a longer-term
motion is 310 degrees at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to
strengthen to the north and northwest of Florence, causing the
hurricane to turn west- northwestward by Friday and even westward by
the weekend. It appears that a mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern Atlantic in a few days will likely miss Florence, with
the only perceivable effects on the hurricane being a decrease in
forward speed. The net result is that the model guidance continues
to trend westward at long range, and the official forecast follows
suit, lying just north of the model consensus in deference to the
ECMWF deterministic model and ensemble mean.

It should be noted that there is still considerable model ensemble
spread for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large
uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate
what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next
week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells
emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island.
Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early
next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 23.4N 47.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.2N 48.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 25.0N 49.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 25.5N 51.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 25.7N 53.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 26.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 27.2N 58.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-06 03:32

WTNT31 KNHC 060248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 47.2W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 47.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin
Thursday night, followed by a turn toward the west by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, with restrengthening possible
over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-06 03:32

WTNT21 KNHC 060248
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 47.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 47.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.2N 48.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N 49.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.5N 51.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.7N 53.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.1N 55.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 27.2N 58.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 47.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-05 21:32

WTNT41 KNHC 052033
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

Florence has continued to intensify during the day, with colder
cloud tops completely encircling a clearer eye. Both subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates have unanimously increased to T6.0/115
kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt,
making Florence a category 4 hurricane.

Florence appears to be right along the southern edge of a zone of
stronger vertical shear and continues to defy the intensity
guidance, which has consistently been predicting weakening. That
said, the last few satellite images indicate that the eye may be
becoming slightly disrupted by the shear. Since the shear is
anticipated to increase during the next day or so, gradual weakening
is shown in the short-term official forecast, which lies along the
upper end of the guidance through 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours,
vertical shear is anticipated to weaken, which would allow Florence
to intensify and potentially regain major hurricane status. However,
Florence will need to thread the needle between areas of stronger
shear for this to happen, and there is significant uncertainty in
the intensity forecast. The new official intensity forecast is
little changed from before except to adjust upward to account for
the higher initial intensity.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt.
Strong upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen north of
Florence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn
toward the west-northwest through about 48 hours. Track guidance is
good agreement during this period, and the official forecast is
essentially an update to the previous one. Beyond day 2, a break
forms in the ridge, which results in a weakening of the steering
currents, a slowdown in Florence's forward speed, and a turn back
toward the northwest. The new official forecast is shifted south a
bit on days 3-5 to account for recent model trends and is closest to
the TVCN consensus.

It should be noted that there is considerable model ensemble spread
and run-to-run variability for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given
the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to
speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East
Coast next week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large
swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on
Friday, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the
island. Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by
early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 46.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 25.2N 51.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.0N 57.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 29.0N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

2018-09-05 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 052032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 46.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 46.6 West. Florence is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin
Thursday night, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is now a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next couple of days, but Florence is expected to remain
a powerful hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

2018-09-05 21:32

WTNT21 KNHC 052032
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 46.6W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 46.6W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 46.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.2N 51.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.0N 57.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 46.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-05 15:31

WTNT41 KNHC 051440
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

Remarkably, Florence has continued to strengthen. The hurricane
has a compact central dense overcast with cold cloud tops completely
encircling a clear, well-defined eye. With the improved structure,
subjective Dvorak estimates have increased to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB
and T6.0/115 kt from SAB, while the latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate is T5.8/110 kt. The initial intensity is therefore set at
110 kt as a blend of these numbers, with Florence having become a
major hurricane earlier this morning.

Given the estimated maximum winds, Florence has been rapidly
intensifying since yesterday, an event that was not foreseen by any
intensity models, nor forecasters. Diagnostics from the SHIPS
model and UW-CIMSS shear analyses have been consistently showing
southwesterly shear of 20-25 kt in the vicinity of Florence, but it
is possible that those schemes are averaging over a larger area
than might be reasonable given the hurricane's small size. Florence
has apparently been able to find a small pocket of relatively low
shear, and with waters becoming progressively warmer, the hurricane
has strengthened significantly more than anticipated. This makes
the intensity forecast incredibly uncertain. SHIPS actually shows
the shear increasing over the next 24 hours, but global model
fields suggest that the hurricane may still be able to continue
within the protected pocket of lower shear for the next several
days. As a result, the NHC official forecast keeps Florence's
intensity well above the available guidance, which all show the
hurricane weakening over the next day or two. The new NHC
prediction follows this trend and also shows some weakening, but
this is a low-confidence forecast. Either way, Florence is
expected to remain a hurricane throughout the 5-day period.

The track forecast also has its challenges. The initial motion
estimate is northwestward, or 305/11 kt. It now appears that
stronger upper-level ridging may take shape to the north of
Florence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn back
toward the west-northwest from 36-72 hours. After 72 hours, a
break in the ridge should allow Florence to turn back toward the
northwest, but the bulk of the track models have trended westward
since yesterday. In light of these trends, the NHC official track
forecast has been shifted westward on days 4 and 5, but not quite
as far as the various model consensus aids. It is worth stressing
that there is still a significant amount of spread among the GFS
and ECMWF ensemble members by the end of the forecast period, and
just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is of low
confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.0N 45.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.7N 47.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 23.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 24.7N 50.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 25.1N 52.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

2018-09-05 15:31

WTNT31 KNHC 051439
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE FLOURISHING IN THE FACE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early next
week.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is
a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some weakening is possible during the next few days, but Florence is
expected to remain a strong hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

2018-09-05 15:31

WTNT21 KNHC 051438
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 45.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 45.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.7N 47.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 49.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 50.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.1N 52.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 45.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/RHOME

2018-09-05 13:31

WTNT61 KNHC 051233
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
835 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FIRST OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence is still
strengthening and is now a major hurricane. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 1100 AM
AST (1500 UTC) advisory package.


SUMMARY OF 835 AM AST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 45.2W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

2018-09-05 09:31

WTNT41 KNHC 050848
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

Conventional satellite enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a
0511 UTC GMI color composite microwave pass reveal improved inner
core structure with impressive outer banding over the eastern
semicircle. Dvorak intensity estimates have again increased, and
the initial intensity is once more increased to 90 kt, which also
agrees with the latest SATCON analysis.

This intensity forecast is still a bit murky. The deterministic
models show increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a less than
favorable mid-tropospheric thermodynamic environment affecting the
tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This less-than-conducive
environment should induce weakening during this time frame.
Thereafter, and through the remaining forecast, most of the
models show a mid- to upper-level low developing to the south of
Florence in the base of the mid- Atlantic deep-layer trough, which
should promote a somewhat more favorable diffluent upper wind
pattern. This more conducive upper wind pattern, and increasing sea
surface temperatures, is expected to cause Florence to restrengthen.
The NHC forecast is a little bit higher than the previous one
between the 48 and 96 hr periods to agree more with the IVCN and
NOAA-HCCA consensus forecasts.

Florence is estimated to be moving northwestward, or 305/11 kt,
which appears to be a temporary trochoidal eyewall wobble. A turn
back toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and this
general motion is expected to continue through day 4 while the
hurricane is steered by the southwestern periphery of the
subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, Florence is
expected to turn northwestward and slow down as it enters a break in
the ridge. The ECMWF model track forecast has shifted significantly
toward the left this evening, closer to the other global models and
their ensemble means, indicating less steering influence from the
predicted growing weakness in the subtropical ridge. Subsequently,
an adjustment to the left of of the previous advisory, beyond 48
hours, was made in order to nudge closer to the guidance suite and
the consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 22.2N 46.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 24.2N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 24.9N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 25.6N 54.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 26.8N 56.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 28.7N 58.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-05 09:31

WTNT31 KNHC 050848
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 44.8W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 44.8 West. Florence is
temporarily moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and
this general motion is expected to continue with Florence's forward
speed decreasing by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight and
continue through Friday. After that time, Florence is forecast to
restrengthen through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-05 09:31

WTNT21 KNHC 050847
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 44.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 46.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.2N 50.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.9N 51.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 54.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N 56.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 28.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-05 03:32

WTNT41 KNHC 050252
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

GOES-16 imagery shows that the eye of Florence has become better
defined during the last several hours, with even some mesovortices
in the eye present on the shortwave infrared channel. Satellite
intensity estimates continue to rise, and the initial wind speed is
set to 85 kt, just below the latest TAFB estimate of 90 kt.

Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt. This
general course is expected to continue through 36 or 48 hours while
the hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge. After that time, the forecast becomes more uncertain,
depending on the presence of a narrow mid-level ridge over the
north-central Atlantic Ocean. A look at the ensemble guidance
shows a bifurcation developing by day 5, with the ECMWF favoring
a more northward turn, and the UKMET ensembles showing a stronger
ridge and a continuation of a west-northwest track. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the
corrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast
undergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the
split in the guidance.

This intensity forecast is also difficult. Florence certainly has
exceeded expectations during the last day or so, with the hurricane
on the verge of rapidly intensifying during the last 24 hours
despite a marginal environment. Some more strengthening is
called for in the short term to reflect the current trend.
However, the global models continue to insist that southwesterly
shear will increase over the next couple of days which, in
combination with considerable dry air aloft, should cause some
weakening. Later tomorrow, a slow weakening trend should begin and
continue through 48 hours, although not weakening as much as shown
in the past advisory. This can't be considered a high-confidence
prediction in light of what Florence has done so far. On Friday, an
upper-level low could cut off to the south of the cyclone, which
would lessen the shear near Florence, and the hurricane should be
moving over steadily increasing SSTs. Restrengthening is forecast at
long range, and it wouldn't be surprising if the new NHC prediction
turns out to be too low. It is best to be conservative, however,
since the track uncertainty is increasing by the end of the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.7N 43.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.5N 45.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 22.6N 47.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 23.7N 49.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 24.7N 50.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 26.0N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 27.3N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 29.0N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-05 03:32

WTNT31 KNHC 050251
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

...FLORENCE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 43.9W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 43.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. A
northwestward motion is expected to begin by Thursday with
Florence's forward speed decreasing by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening could occur
overnight, but a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin on
Wednesday and continue through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-05 03:32

WTNT21 KNHC 050248
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 43.9W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 43.9W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 43.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N 47.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 50.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 27.3N 55.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-04 21:31

WTNT41 KNHC 042032
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

Despite being over marginally warm water and in an environment of
moderate west-southwesterly shear, Florence's intensity has
increased during the day. The hurricane has a cloud-filled eye in
visible imagery, and the central dense overcast is becoming more
symmetric. Based on Dvorak estimates of T4.5 from TAFB and SAB,
and a SATCON estimate of 77 kt, the initial intensity is now,
somewhat surprisingly, 75 kt. Since the current intensification
trend may not be over, the official forecast calls for Florence to
strengthen just a little more during the next 6-12 hours. Even
though the hurricane will be moving over progressively warmer
waters, increasing vertical shear and dry air in the middle levels
of the atmosphere should induce some weakening in the 24-72 hour
time frame. Lower shear after 72 hours will likely allow Florence
to regain hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period.
The NHC intensity forecast is primarily adjusted to account for the
recent strengthening trend, and is closest to the Florida State
Superensemble and HCCA guidance.

Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt. This
trajectory is expected to continue through 36 hours while the
hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge. After 36 hours, Florence is expected to turn northwestward
and slow down as it enters a break in the ridge. The track models
are in good agreement and show little spread through 48 hours. On
days 3-5, the biggest outlier is the UKMET, which lies to the south
of the guidance suite. In fact, the bulk of the models, including
the deterministic GFS and ECMWF, are all now showing a more
definitive poleward motion by day 5. While the official NHC track
forecast reflects this thinking, there is still considerable spread
among the associated global model ensembles, and the longer-term
forecast should be considered low confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.0N 44.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.1N 46.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 24.3N 50.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 26.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 27.5N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 29.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-04 21:31

WTNT31 KNHC 042031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

...FLORENCE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
...STILL NO THREAT TO LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 43.2W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 43.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. A
northwestward motion is expected to begin by Thursday with
Florence's forward speed decreasing by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
through tonight, but Florence is expected to weaken beginning on
Wednesday and continuing through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-04 21:31

WTNT21 KNHC 042031
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 44.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 46.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.3N 50.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-04 19:31

WTNT61 KNHC 041846
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
250 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence has continued to
intensify during the past few hours, and maximum sustained winds
have increased to 85 mph (140 km/h). This increase in intensity
will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 500 PM AST (2100
UTC) advisory package.


SUMMARY OF 250 PM AST...1850 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 42.7W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Berg

2018-09-04 15:32

WTNT41 KNHC 041437
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

Florence's structure has gradually increased in organization, with
SSMIS passes from a few hours ago revealing the development of a
mid-level microwave eye. Dvorak estimates have responded in
kind--TAFB is up to T4.0, SAB is at T4.5, and the objective ADT is
in between at T4.4. Since there still appears to be moderate
southwesterly shear inducing some tilt to the cyclone and
disrupting the infrared satellite pattern, the initial intensity is
raised conservatively to 65 kt, making Florence a hurricane.

The current motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt, with
Florence positioned near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge. The steering pattern ahead of Florence is rather complicated
and will be evolving over the next few days. A large and complex
mid-/upper-level trough located northeast of the Leeward Islands is
expected to give way to the development of two upper-level highs
centered near the Greater Antilles and southwest of the Azores, with
Florence slowing down and turning northwestward between these new
features. Despite this complex pattern, the spread in the track
models is less than normal, which increases the confidence in the
NHC track forecast for the next 5 days. There is some spread which
begins to develop around day 5, with the ECMWF model moving Florence
a little faster toward the north while the GFS maintains a slower
speed and keeps the system to the south. The updated NHC track
forecast has been nudged slightly to the east of the previous
forecast on days 4 and 5, close to the TVCX consensus but not as far
as the HCCA and ECMWF models. There is still too much model spread
after day 5 to speculate what Florence might do beyond the official
forecast period.

Despite Florence becoming a hurricane, the southwesterly shear
affecting the cyclone is expected to increase over the next day or
two, which should prevent further intensification. In fact, the
increasing shear, as well as mid-level relative humidities below 50
percent, should cause weakening between 24 and 72 hours. After 72
hours, decreasing shear and warmer sea surface temperatures should
foster some re-intensification, with Florence expected to reattain
hurricane intensity by day 5. The intensity guidance is in good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is very close to a blend of HCCA,
the Florida State Superensemble, and the ICON consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.7N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.3N 46.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.4N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 23.6N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 25.6N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 27.5N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 29.5N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-04 15:32

WTNT31 KNHC 041436
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...
...NO THREAT TO LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 42.5W
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 42.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A slower
northwestward motion is forecast to begin Thursday and continue
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and
continue through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-04 15:32

WTNT21 KNHC 041436
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 42.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 42.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 42.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 44.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 46.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.4N 48.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.6N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.6N 52.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 29.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 42.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-04 09:31

WTNT41 KNHC 040838
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

Florence's cloud pattern has changed very little during the past
several hours, with the exception of a possible small Central Dense
Overcast developing just to the east of the center. An earlier
AMSR2 overpass revealed a rather obvious tilt toward the
east-northeast, indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear.
The initial intensity is held a 60 kt, and is supported by the
Dvorak subjective and objective T-numbers.

Florence should exhibit little change in strength during the next
24 hours or so, as the cyclone traverses marginally warm sea surface
temperatures and is influenced by modest west-southwesterly shear.
Slight weakening is expected during the mid- forecast period as the
shear gradually increases with time. Afterward, the upper-level
wind environment should become a little more favorable and, at the
same time, Florence will be moving back over warmer SSTs.
Consequently, the cyclone should gradually strengthen through day 5.
This forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good
agreement with the NOAA-HCCA guidance.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt.
The cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward for the
next 48 hours by a mid- to upper tropospheric ridge anchored to
the north, followed by a northwestward turn around the 72 hr period
as it enters a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge. A
rather large spread in the global and hurricane models remains
particularly beyond day 4, however, the consensus models and the
global ensemble means have have been fairly consistent from run to
run. This forecast is just a bit to the north of the previous
advisory and just south of the consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 19.3N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.9N 43.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.8N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.8N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.9N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 25.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 27.1N 55.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 29.1N 57.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-04 09:31

WTNT31 KNHC 040837
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

...FLORENCE STILL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 42.0W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 42.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
followed by a turn toward the northwest around Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but
some weakening is forecast on Wednesday. Afterward, gradual
strengthening is forecast through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-04 09:31

WTNT21 KNHC 040837
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 42.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 42.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 41.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.9N 43.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.8N 45.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.8N 48.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 50.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.2N 53.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 27.1N 55.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 29.1N 57.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 42.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-04 03:32

WTNT41 KNHC 040231
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

Although Florence continues to produce a fairly circular area of
deep convection, microwave images have revealed that there is a
significant southwest-to-northeast vertical tilt of the
circulation due to southwesterly shear. The initial intensity is
held at 60 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and
SAB. This estimate is a little below the latest automated Dvorak
values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

The strong tropical storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285
degrees, at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The
storm is expected to gradually turn northwestward with a decrease
in forward speed during the next several days as it moves
toward a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge. There
remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance, especially in the
3- to 5-day time period, but the consensus aids have changed little
this cycle. Therefore, no significant changes were made to the
previous forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday as
Florence remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind
shear conditions. Slight weakening is expected during the middle
part of the week due to a gradual increase in southwesterly or
westerly shear. Beyond that time, however, the shear is expected to
decrease and Florence will be over much warmer waters. Therefore,
slow strengthening is shown at the end of the forecast period.
This forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good
agreement with the HCCA guidance.

The 34- and 50-kt initial wind radii have been expanded outward
based on recent ASCAT passes.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.9N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.4N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.1N 44.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.1N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.1N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.5N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 26.8N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 28.4N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-04 03:32

WTNT31 KNHC 040230
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

...FLORENCE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 41.0W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 41.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly
slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but
some weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-04 03:32

WTNT21 KNHC 040230
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 41.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 41.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 42.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 44.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 47.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.5N 53.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 26.8N 55.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.4N 57.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 41.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-03 21:32

WTNT41 KNHC 032033
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

Florence appears a little better organized than earlier today. Deep
convection is slightly stronger near and to the north of the center,
and the cloud pattern still resembles a central dense overcast. A
blend of the latest Dvorak classifications suggests a slightly
higher wind speed, and accordingly, the initial intensity is nudged
upward to 60 kt.

The strong tropical storm is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 13
kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The global models
all show a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge during the
next several days due to a series of troughs moving across the
Atlantic. In response, Florence is expected to gradually turn
northwestward with a slight reduction in forward speed during the
next several days. While there remains a fair amount of spread in
the models from 72 to 120 h, there has been a notable trend to the
right, or north, during the past few model cycles. The official
track forecast is adjusted slightly to the right as well, trending
toward the latest consensus aids.

Little change in strength is expected through tonight as Florence
remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind shear
conditions. However, nearly all of the intensity models show a slow
weakening trend during the next few days. This weakening is in
response to a gradual increase in southwesterly or westerly shear.
Beyond a few days, however, the shear is expected to decrease and
Florence will be over much warmer waters. Therefore, slow
strengthening is shown in the 3 to 5 day period. This forecast is
slightly higher than the previous one at the longer range, but is
otherwise unchanged.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.4N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.7N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 28.0N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-03 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 032033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

...FLORENCE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 39.8W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 39.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slightly slower
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight, but some weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-03 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 032031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

...FLORENCE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 39.8W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 39.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slightly slower
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight, but some weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-03 21:32

WTNT21 KNHC 032031
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 39.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 39.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 39.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 43.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 46.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.7N 52.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 39.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-03 15:32

WTNT41 KNHC 031443
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

While Florence's structure improved overnight, the cloud tops have
warmed and the deep convection has thinned during the past several
hours. The 12Z satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 65 kt,
but given recent trends the initial intensity is set at the low end
of that range at 55 kt, although this is quite uncertain given the
recent fluctuations in the cloud pattern.

UW-CIMSS satellite diagnostics indicate that around 20 kt of
southwesterly shear is affecting Florence, while the SHIPS analysis
based on the GFS fields shows only about 10 kt. SSTs warm from this
point forward along the forecast track, but shear is expected to
be steady or strengthen, and the mid-level relative humidity values
decrease to around 50 percent during the next 48 to 72 hours. Given
these mixed factors, the NHC intensity forecast shows some
possibility for strengthening in the next 12 hours, followed by a
slow decay through 72 hours. Some restrengthening is forecast late
in the period as SSTs warm above 28C and the atmospheric moisture
increases. The NHC forecast is close to or a bit above the latest
IVCN consensus aid and about 5 kt above the previous NHC forecast
through 96 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 285/14. Florence will be steered
generally west-northwestward for the next 72 hours by the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, followed by a northwestward turn at days 4 and 5.
While there is large spread in the guidance between the HWRF on the
right and the UKMET on the left, the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensemble
means are more tightly clustered near the middle of the guidance
envelope. Since the overall track forecast reasoning has not
changed, the new NHC forecast remains near the middle of the
guidance. This forecast is a bit north of the previous NHC track
given the initial position and lies a little south of the consensus
aids to reflect less influence of the outlier HWRF model to the
north.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 18.6N 40.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.1N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.8N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 23.0N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 25.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-03 15:32

WTNT31 KNHC 031442
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 38.7W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1505 MI...2425 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 38.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue
through Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later
today, followed by a slow weakening trend starting on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-03 15:32

WTNT21 KNHC 031441
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 38.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 38.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 38.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 40.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.1N 43.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 45.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 52.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 38.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-09-03 09:32

WTNT41 KNHC 030850
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

The structure of Florence has recovered overnight. Several recent
microwave images indicate that the tropical storm's center is still
dislocated to the south of most of the associated convection, but
convective banding has increased. There is also evidence that
Florence has developed better defined low-level inner-core.
Satellite intensity estimates have increased and now range from 45
to 60 kt. As a compromise of the various estimates, the initial
intensity has been raised slightly to 50 kt, but its worth noting
that this increase is within the noise level of our ability to
observe the intensity of tropical storms over the open ocean.

Based on SHIPS diagnostics, the southwesterly shear affecting
Florence could remain moderate for the next 12 h, and some slight
intensification is possible. However, by 24 h, an increase in the
shear should kick off a gradual weakening trend. By the end of the
forecast period, the tropical storm is forecast to re-intensify
while it moves over warmer SSTs and the environmental shear
decreases. Given the improved current structure of Florence, the new
official intensity forecast shows slight intensification for the
first 12 h. Beyond that time, the models are in good agreement and
the NHC forecast is near the middle of the relatively tight
intensity guidance envelope.

The tropical storm is still moving west-northwestward, at an
estimated 14 kt. A continued west to west-northwest motion is
forecast by all the global models for the next couple of days. By
the end of the forecast period, nearly all of the guidance shows a
turn toward the northwest, and the main source of uncertainty in
the track forecast continues to be exactly when and to what extent
Florence will make this turn. At this point I have no reason to
depart from the various consensus models, and the track forecast is
very close to the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.0N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.3N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 18.7N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 24.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 26.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-03 09:32

WTNT31 KNHC 030849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 37.5W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 37.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The
tropical storm is expected to move generally westward to
west-northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed for the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in intensity is expected over the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-03 09:32

WTNT21 KNHC 030848
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 37.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 37.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 36.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.3N 39.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.2N 51.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 37.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-03 03:32

WTNT41 KNHC 030235
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

Florence has generally changed little during the past several
hours. The cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast
feature with the low-level center estimated to be closer to the
southern side of the convection. All of the satellite intensity
estimates have held steady and support maintaining the wind speed
at 45 kt.

Although Florence is located in an environment of relatively low
wind shear, the SSTs beneath the cyclone are cool, around 26 deg C.
The tropical storm is expected to move over gradually warmer waters
beginning in about 24 hours, but it will also be moving into an
environment of higher shear. These mixed signals suggest that
Florence will likely change little in intensity or weaken
slightly during the next few days. By the end of the forecast
period, however, the shear is expected to lessen and by then
Florence should be over much warmer waters. Therefore,
strengthening seems likely in the 4 to 5 day time period. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to come
into better agreement with the latest guidance.

Florence is moving west-northwestward at 15 kt steered by a
mid-level ridge to its northeast. Although the track models all
show a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during
the next several days, the north-south spread becomes fairly large
by the end of the forecast period. This spread appears to be
primarily associated with differences on how strong or vertically
coherent each model predicts Florence to be. Since the NHC forecast
shows the storm changing little in strength for the next few days,
this track prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope
close to the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.9N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.3N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.7N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 19.2N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 23.6N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 25.5N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-03 03:32

WTNT31 KNHC 030233
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 35.9W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 35.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly
slower west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-03 03:32

WTNT21 KNHC 030233
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 35.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 35.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 38.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.7N 40.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 45.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.6N 53.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.5N 56.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 35.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-02 21:32

WTNT41 KNHC 022034
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

Florence's cloud pattern is characterized by a low-level center
partially displaced to the west of the coldest cloud tops, which
have expanded in coverage recently. A blend of the latest satellite
classifications supports maintaining an intensity of 45 kt for this
advisory package. Little change in strength is expected for much of
the forecast period, as Florence will be moving through an
environment characterized by moderate shear and marginal SSTs for
the next 3 days. By the end of the forecast period, the SSTs begin
to warm up, which should result in some restrengthening. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is closest to
the SHIPS model forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 285/15. Florence will be steered
west-northwestward or westward for the next several days by the
Atlantic subtropical ridge. There is a fair amount of north-south
spread in the guidance, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and HWRF on
the right side of the envelope and the ECMWF, ECMWF mean and UKMET
on the left. This spread is likely due to large differences in the
vertical structure of the cyclone, with the ECMWF and UKMET having a
much weaker vortex at 500 mb compared to the GFS in 3-4 days. Given
the difficulty in forecasting these types of structural changes,
the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope and is
close to the multi-model consensus aids through the forecast period.
This forecast is largely an update of the previous NHC prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.4N 34.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.7N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.2N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.6N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 23.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 25.5N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-02 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 022033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 34.6W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 34.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-
northwestward to westward motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday with a gradual decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-09-02 21:32

WTNT21 KNHC 022033
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 33.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.7N 36.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.2N 39.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.6N 41.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 48.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 34.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-09-02 15:32

WTNT41 KNHC 021449
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

Florence's convective cloud appearance has become rather disheveled
this morning, with most of the deep convection sheared to the east
and northeast of the now fully exposed but well-defined low-level
circulation center. Both subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have decreased, especially the objective ADT
estimates from UW-CIMSS. Based on a blend of the available
estimates, the intensity has been lowered to 45 kt.

The initial motion is 285/16. Now that the system has weakened and
become more vertically shallow, a more westward component of motion
is expected throughout the forecast period. All but the GFS and HWRF
models have picked up on this more westerly component of motion, and
the ECMWF and UKMET models are now the southernmost models in the
guidance suite. Since the ridge to the north is expected to remain
intact and even build more westward over the next 5 days, the new
NHC track forecast has been shifted southward and to the left of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA,
FSSE, and TCVN track consensus models.

Analyses from UW-CIMSS indicate that westerly to southwesterly
vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is undercutting the otherwise
favorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery
and by the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model, which show the shear
to be less than 10 kt. GOES-16 mid-level water vapor imagery also
reveals that Florence is ingesting considerable dry air in the
western and southern quadrants, with the dry mid-level air having
penetrated into the inner-core region. Since the vertical shear is
expected to get a little worse over the next 3-4 days while the
cyclone is moving over SSTs near 26 deg C, little change in strength
is forecast through 96 h. By 120 h, however, Florence is forecast to
move over warmer waters with SSTs exceeding 28 deg C and also into
a weaker shear environment, which should allow for some
re-strengthening to occur. The new NHC intensity forecast is a
little lower than the one in the previous advisory, and closely
follows the consensus model IVCN, through 96 h, and then is a
little above the guidance at 120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.0N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.4N 35.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.9N 38.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.4N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.9N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.4N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 24.3N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-02 15:32

WTNT31 KNHC 021447
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

...FLORENCE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 33.2W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 33.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 50 mph
(85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-02 15:32

WTNT21 KNHC 021447
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 33.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 33.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 32.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 35.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.9N 38.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 40.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.9N 42.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.4N 51.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 54.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 33.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-02 09:32

WTNT41 KNHC 020851
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

Florence continues to gradually strengthen. Microwave imagery from
a recent AMSR overpass indicates that a majority of the deep
convection is located in the northern semicircle of the tropical
storm, but its center is still well embedded within the central
dense overcast. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from SAB
and TAFB supports increasing the intensity to 50 kt.

Some additional slight strengthening is still expected over the next
day or so while Florence remains in a light shear environment and
over marginal SSTs. Beginning in about 3 days, slow weakening is
forecast due to an expected increase in wind shear associated with
an extensive mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic.
The intensity guidance is in generally good agreement through 120 h,
and the official forecast remains near the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is now 290/13. The track guidance is fairly
tightly packed for the first 48 h or so, with the spread increasing
more quickly beyond that time. For the next couple of days, the
subtropical ridge should keep Florence moving westward to
west-northwestward at a similar forward speed. By day 3, a
west-northwest to northwest motion is forecast to begin, as the
aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough influences the track of
the tropical storm. While all of the global models show this
general scenario, the extent to which Florence will gain latitude is
less certain. A stronger Florence will likely turn more toward the
northwest, while a weaker, shallower system should continue on a
more westward to west-northwestward track. For now, the NHC
forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to
all of the consensus models. This track is also generally in line
with the official intensity forecast, which shows a somewhat weaker
system than the GFS (on the north side of the guidance), but a
stronger one than the ECMWF (on the south side).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.5N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.0N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.5N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 20.1N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 24.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-02 09:32

WTNT31 KNHC 020850
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

...FLORENCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 31.4W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 31.4 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is possible today or
tomorrow, but little overall change in strength is expected through
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-02 09:32

WTNT21 KNHC 020850
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 31.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 31.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 30.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 33.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 41.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 45.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 31.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-02 03:32

WTNT41 KNHC 020254
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

Florence continues to become better organized, with a circular
central dense overcast and a complex of outer bands in all
quadrants except the southwest. Satellite intensity estimates
range from 35-55 kt, and thus the initial intensity is increased to
45 kt. Given the overall good appearance in satellite imagery, it
is possible this is conservative.

For the next 2 days or so, Florence should remain in a light shear
environment over sea surface temperatures near 26C. Most of the
guidance shows some slow strengthening, and the intensity forecast
follows suit. After 48 h, the cyclone should reach warmer water and
encounter southwesterly shear, and this combination is expected to
result in little change in strength during this period. The
intensity forecast is only slightly changed from the previous
advisory and remains near the consensus aids. Considering the lack
of shear and the good structure, though, it would not be surprising
if Florence got a little stronger than forecast during the next
couple of days.

The initial motion is 290/12. The track guidance suggests a
general west-northwestward motion should continue for the next 3-4
days as Florence is steered by the subtropical ridge to the north.
Near the end of the forecast period, a more northwestward motion
is expected. Despite the relatively straightforward steering
pattern, there is a significant spread in the track guidance even by
72 h, with the Canadian model on the far right side of the guidance
envelope, the ECMWF on the left side, and the other dynamical
models loosely clustered in between. However, the overall guidance
envelope has changed little since the last advisory, and the new
track forecast lies near both the center of the envelope and the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.0N 30.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.5N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 17.6N 37.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.2N 40.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 24.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-02 03:32

WTNT31 KNHC 020253
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 30.2W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 30.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected tonight and
Sunday, with little change in strength expected Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-02 03:32

WTNT21 KNHC 020253
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 30.2W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 30.2W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 29.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 32.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.6N 37.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 40.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 44.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 30.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-01 21:32

WTNT41 KNHC 012034
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

The cloud pattern has continued to improve with a circular area of
convection near the center, and a cyclonically curved band
surrounding the system. The upper-level outflow is fair in all
quadrants. Although the cloud pattern is better organized, the
Dvorak T-numbers have not changed, and only support 40 kt at this
time.

Florence has a couple of more days embedded within a low-shear
environment which supports strengthening, but it is also currently
heading toward marginal SSTs. By the time the cyclone reaches
warmer waters again, the shear is forecast to be unfavorable. The
best option at this time is to show only a very modest strengthening
at the rate indicated by the intensity consensus aids.

Florence has been moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees
at 12 to 14 kt. No change in track is anticipated during the next 3
days while Florence is located to the south of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge. After that time, Florence will reach a break in
the ridge causing the cyclone to turn toward the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed. The latter portion of the forecast is
uncertain since the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north
has been fluctuating from run to run in each model. At this time,
the overall guidance has been shifting a little bit westward,
suggesting a stronger ridge. On this basis, the NHC forecast was
adjusted slightly in that direction at the end of the forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 15.6N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.2N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 16.8N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 19.5N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.5N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-01 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 012033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

...FLORENCE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 29.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 29.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-01 21:32

WTNT21 KNHC 012033
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 29.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 29.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 28.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 31.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 33.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 29.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-01 15:32

WTNT41 KNHC 011444
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

Satellite images indicate that Florence's cloud pattern has improved
in organization with the low-level center embedded within the
convection, and a cyclonically curved band surrounding the system. A
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak numbers from TAFB, SAB, and
the UW-CIMMS yield an initial intensity of 40 kt.

My predecessor wrote a very clear explanation of the reasoning of
his track and intensity forecasts, and I do not think I can improve
on it. The environment continues to be mixed with favorable and
unfavorable conditions for Florence to strengthen. Currently,
the shear is low and favors strengthening, but the ocean along the
cyclone's forecast path is cooler. The latter condition should
inhibit significant intensification. After 3 days, the opposite is
anticipated -- the ocean will be warmer, but the shear will likely
be high. Only at the very long range could both factors become
favorable. The best option at this time is to show only a gradual
strengthening at the rate indicated by the intensity consensus aids.

Florence is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees
at 12 kt. No change in track is anticipated during the next 3 days
while Florence is located to the south of the subtropical ridge.
After that time, Florence will reach a break in the ridge causing
the cyclone to turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward
speed. The confidence in the forecast is high during the next 3 days
when the track guidance envelope is tightly packed. Thereafter, the
confidence is not so high since the envelope widens and becomes
bounded by the easternmost HWRF and the westernmost ECMWF models.
Since the guidance envelope shifted a little bit westward, the NHC
forecast was also adjusted slightly in that direction, primarily
during the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.8N 27.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.1N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.5N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 21.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-01 15:32

WTNT31 KNHC 011443
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

...FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 27.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 27.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, Florence will continue to move toward the open
eastern Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-01 15:32

WTNT21 KNHC 011443
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 27.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 27.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 27.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 29.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N 32.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 35.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 27.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-01 12:32

WTNT31 KNHC 011134
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

...TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINED FOR THOSE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 27.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago,
Fogo, and Brava has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 27.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will continue to move away
from the Cabo Verde Islands today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
A gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could still produce an additional 1 to 2
inches of rain across the southern Cabo Verde Islands today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-01 09:32

WTNT41 KNHC 010856
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

A recent SSMIS microwave pass has revealed that the cyclone has
become much better organized with more pronounced convective
banding. Satellite intensity estimates are wide ranging, spanning
from T1.5/25 kt from SAB to T3.4/53 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Since
the numbers overall have increased, and the structure has improved,
the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, in closest agreement to
the TAFB estimate, but this could be conservative. This makes the
depression Tropical Storm Florence, the sixth named storm of the
season.

Florence is moving west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt, and should
maintain this motion for the next 48 hours while traveling along the
southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, the
storm is expected to reach a break in the ridge, causing it to slow
down and turn northwestward by day 5. The biggest change noted
among the track models on this cycle was a westward shift in the
overall guidance envelope. The European model, in particular, swung
significantly to the left, showing a weaker Florence not feeling the
break in the ridge quite as much. I'd like to see this trend
continue before making a significant change to the forecast, so for
now the updated NHC track prediction is only nudged westward. That
said, the models appear to be trending away from a definitive
recurvature scenario.

The environment is mixed with positives and negatives for Florence's
strengthening. For the first 3 days, vertical shear over Florence
should be quite low, but the cyclone will also be moving through a
less-than-ideal thermodynamic environment with marginal sea surface
temperatures and decreasing mid-level moisture. After 3 days, the
thermodynamic environment should begin to improve, but then the
shear is forecast to strengthen. These conflicting signals point to
only gradual strengthening, and the suite of intensity models aren't
too far off from one another, nor from the previous NHC forecast.
For that reason, no significant changes were made in this forecast
package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.5N 26.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.0N 28.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.7N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.4N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.1N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.7N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-01 09:32

WTNT31 KNHC 010855
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

...TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORMS JUST WEST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 26.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 26.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will continue to move away
from the Cabo Verde Islands today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is forecast during
the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of
rain across the southern Cabo Verde Islands today.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are diminishing over the southern
Cabo Verde Islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-01 09:32

WTNT21 KNHC 010855
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 26.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 26.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 26.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 28.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 31.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.4N 33.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.1N 36.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 41.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 26.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-01 06:32

WTNT31 KNHC 010532
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 26.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 26.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
several days. On the forecast track, the depression will begin to
move away from the Cabo Verde Islands today. The system is then
forecast to move west-northwestward over the open eastern Atlantic
on Sunday and Monday and over the central Atlantic Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of
rain across the southern Cabo Verde Islands today.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected to diminish over the
southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-01 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 010406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.09.2018

HURRICANE MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 140.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2018 0 20.2N 140.8W 973 75
1200UTC 01.09.2018 12 22.3N 141.1W 992 53
0000UTC 02.09.2018 24 24.2N 141.6W 1001 38
1200UTC 02.09.2018 36 25.9N 143.0W 1006 31
0000UTC 03.09.2018 48 27.4N 144.2W 1010 26
1200UTC 03.09.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 121.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2018 0 16.1N 121.7W 980 58
1200UTC 01.09.2018 12 16.1N 123.2W 980 58
0000UTC 02.09.2018 24 16.4N 125.1W 979 56
1200UTC 02.09.2018 36 16.8N 127.3W 976 56
0000UTC 03.09.2018 48 17.8N 130.0W 967 70
1200UTC 03.09.2018 60 18.8N 132.8W 974 64
0000UTC 04.09.2018 72 19.8N 135.7W 979 67
1200UTC 04.09.2018 84 20.3N 138.5W 988 53
0000UTC 05.09.2018 96 20.5N 141.0W 994 41
1200UTC 05.09.2018 108 20.6N 143.1W 996 40
0000UTC 06.09.2018 120 20.8N 144.9W 998 35
1200UTC 06.09.2018 132 21.4N 146.5W 999 35
0000UTC 07.09.2018 144 22.0N 148.4W 1002 34

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 107.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2018 0 14.6N 107.5W 1006 24
1200UTC 01.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 25.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2018 0 14.2N 25.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 01.09.2018 12 14.5N 27.7W 997 41
0000UTC 02.09.2018 24 15.3N 29.8W 996 42
1200UTC 02.09.2018 36 16.2N 32.3W 994 43
0000UTC 03.09.2018 48 17.3N 34.9W 993 46
1200UTC 03.09.2018 60 17.7N 38.0W 994 47
0000UTC 04.09.2018 72 18.3N 40.2W 993 50
1200UTC 04.09.2018 84 18.9N 42.2W 991 51
0000UTC 05.09.2018 96 19.8N 43.8W 992 51
1200UTC 05.09.2018 108 21.3N 45.4W 992 50
0000UTC 06.09.2018 120 23.0N 46.7W 988 58
1200UTC 06.09.2018 132 24.4N 48.3W 985 57
0000UTC 07.09.2018 144 25.3N 49.4W 980 65

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 17.1N 112.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2018 48 17.2N 113.2W 1004 31
1200UTC 03.09.2018 60 17.8N 114.2W 1003 31
0000UTC 04.09.2018 72 18.0N 115.1W 1001 31
1200UTC 04.09.2018 84 17.7N 117.2W 1000 32
0000UTC 05.09.2018 96 17.6N 119.1W 998 34
1200UTC 05.09.2018 108 17.5N 121.8W 993 44
0000UTC 06.09.2018 120 17.5N 123.7W 990 42
1200UTC 06.09.2018 132 18.2N 126.1W 989 46
0000UTC 07.09.2018 144 19.3N 128.7W 991 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 28.6N 94.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2018 120 28.2N 94.4W 1008 29
1200UTC 06.09.2018 132 28.3N 95.7W 1006 32
0000UTC 07.09.2018 144 27.3N 97.1W 1002 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010406

2018-09-01 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 010406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.09.2018

HURRICANE MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 140.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2018 20.2N 140.8W STRONG
12UTC 01.09.2018 22.3N 141.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 24.2N 141.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 25.9N 143.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2018 27.4N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 121.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2018 16.1N 121.7W STRONG
12UTC 01.09.2018 16.1N 123.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 125.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.8N 127.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.8N 130.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2018 18.8N 132.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2018 19.8N 135.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 20.3N 138.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 20.5N 141.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 20.6N 143.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 20.8N 144.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 21.4N 146.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 22.0N 148.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 107.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2018 14.6N 107.5W WEAK
12UTC 01.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 25.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2018 14.2N 25.1W WEAK
12UTC 01.09.2018 14.5N 27.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 15.3N 29.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.2N 32.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.3N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.7N 38.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 18.3N 40.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 18.9N 42.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 19.8N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 21.3N 45.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2018 23.0N 46.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 24.4N 48.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 25.3N 49.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 17.1N 112.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.2N 113.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.8N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 18.0N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 17.7N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 17.6N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 17.5N 121.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2018 17.5N 123.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2018 18.2N 126.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 19.3N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 28.6N 94.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2018 28.2N 94.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 06.09.2018 28.3N 95.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2018 27.3N 97.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010406

2018-09-01 03:32

WTNT41 KNHC 010241
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018

Convection associated with the depression is becoming more
concentrated, although the center still appears to be near the
eastern edge of the convective mass. The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 and 25 kt repsectively,
while the CIMSS satellite consensus method suggests the cyclone has
become a tropical storm. Based on the available data, the initial
intensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt. The depression is
feeling the effects of moderate easterly vertical wind shear, with
little or no cirrus outflow in the eastern semicircle.

The initial motion is now 285/12. Deep layer easterly or east-
southeasterly flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge should
steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward across the open
Atlantic ocean for the next 3-4 days. After that time, the cyclone
is expected to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains in good agreement
with this scenario, although there remains some spread on how
sharp the turn will be near the end of the forecast period. The
new forecast track, which is an update of the previous forecast, is
near the various consensus models.

While the current shear is expected to subside during the next day
or so, the forecast track takes the cyclone over waters that cool
to near 26C in about 48 h. The intensity forecast thus calls for
only gradual intensification through this time. After 48-72 h, the
system should move over warmer water, but also should encounter
increasing westerly shear. The intensity guidance responds to this
combination of ingredients by showing little change in strength.
The new intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the previous
forecast, is in the stronger portion of the inetnsity guidance and
above the forecasts of the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.2N 25.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 27.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.5N 29.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.3N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.0N 35.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 18.5N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 20.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 23.0N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-01 03:32

WTNT31 KNHC 010240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CABO
VERDE ISLANDS...
...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THOSE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 25.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 25.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
(22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next several days. On the forecast track, the depression will
be passing just to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
tonight and Saturday morning. The depression should then be moving
over the open eastern Atlantic on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of
rain across the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight. Winds should subside on
Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-01 03:32

WTNT21 KNHC 010240
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 25.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 25.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 24.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 27.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 29.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 32.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 35.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 44.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 25.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-01 00:32

WTNT31 KNHC 312342
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THOSE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 25.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF BRAVA IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 25.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
track with a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected for the
next two or three days. On the forecast track, the depression will
be passing just south of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Saturday
morning. The depression should then be moving over the open eastern
Atlantic on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches possible. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight. Winds should subside on
Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-08-31 21:32

WTNT41 KNHC 312033
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018

High resolution satellite images reveal that the disturbance has
developed a well-defined circulation with a cyclonically curved
convective band near the center, and plenty of showers in the
southern semicircle. The surface pressure in the Cabo Verde Island
of Santiago dropped to 1005 mb at 1800 UTC as the cyclone passed to
its south. In addition, Dvorak numbers are gradually increasing, and
now support classifying the system as a tropical depression.

The depression is becoming better organized, and it will most likely
reach tropical storm status in the next several hours. The
environmental conditions are favorable for some strengthening during
the next 2 to 3 days while the shear is low. Later in the forecast
period, the shear is expected to increase, and the SSTs will become
marginal halting the strengthing process. The models, primarily the
HWRF, are a little less aggressive with the intensity, so the NHC
forecast is adjusted slightly downward.

Now that the center has formed, we have a better estimate of the
initial motion, which is toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt.
The depression is gradually becoming steered by the flow around the
subtropical ridge, and consequently it has increased its forward
speed. This prevailing flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a
general west to west-northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. After
that time, a weakness in the ridge will induce a more northwestward
to north-northwestward track over the open Atlantic Ocean. The
track guidance is very consistent with this solution mainly for the
next 3 days. Thereafter, the confidence in the track forecast
decreases as the guidance envelope widens and becomes bounded by the
westernmost ECMWF and the easternmost HWFI. The NHC forecast
continues to be in the middle of the envelope and is very close
to the corrected consensus HCCA, which has had great skill so far
this year.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 13.8N 24.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 26.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.9N 29.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.8N 31.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 16.5N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-31 21:32

WTNT31 KNHC 312032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THOSE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 24.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Six was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 24.7
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this track with a gradual turn to the west-northwest is
expected for the next two or three days. On the forecast track, the
depression will be passing just south of the Cabo Verde Islands
tonight and Saturday. The depression should then be moving over the
open eastern Atlantic on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm tonight or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from
the Cabo Verde Islands is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches possible. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight. Winds should subside on
Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-31 21:32

WTNT21 KNHC 312032
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 24.7W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 24.7W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 24.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 26.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 29.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 31.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 24.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA