Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOHN-18
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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2018-08-10 16:31

WTPN33 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 26.5N 120.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 120.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.2N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.5N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 26.8N 121.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-10 15:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 101433
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

JOHN'S CONVECTION VANISHED AROUND 0430 UTC, AND THE CYCLONE NOW
CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER A 22 DEGREE
CELSIUS OCEAN. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW WITH 30-KT WINDS IN THIS LAST ADVISORY.
THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 9 KT, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOHN CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, BUT WILL SOON BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON JOHN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 26.8N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z 28.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 28.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-10 15:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 101432 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...JOHN WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...
..................THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 121.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION
OCCURS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE
SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, BUT COULD STILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW

2018-08-10 15:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 101432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone John Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

...JOHN WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 121.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone John
was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 121.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue until dissipation
occurs in a couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is anticipated.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John continue to affect portions
of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These
swells should begin to gradually subside, but could still cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-10 15:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 101432
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
1500 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 121.1W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 121.1W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.2N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 121.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-10 10:31

WTPN33 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 25.6N 119.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 119.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.7N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.4N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.0N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.6N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 30.5N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 120.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-10 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 100854
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AS JOHN MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATER, AND THE SYSTEM IS
NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN LESS THAN 24 H AND TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 H. AFTER THAT, THE REMNANT LOW WILL GRADUALLY
SPIN DOWN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/9. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 48 H
AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THEM FROM 48-72 H.

SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ARE BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 25.9N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 26.7N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 27.4N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 28.0N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 28.6N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z 30.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-08-10 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 100854 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...JOHN WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 119.9W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN WILL
LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS
WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SWELLS
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARE

2018-08-10 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 100854
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

...JOHN WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 119.9W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 119.9 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue over the next couple of days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed. A turn to the north is expected late
this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and John will
likely become a depression later today and become a remnant low this
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells
are beginning to reach the coast of southern California and are
expected to continue through Saturday. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-08-10 09:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 100854
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 119.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 119.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 119.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.7N 121.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.4N 122.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.0N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.6N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 119.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-08-10 04:31

WTPN33 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 25.2N 119.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 119.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 26.3N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.2N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.7N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.4N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 29.9N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 119.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 100240 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

JOHN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE STORM MOVES OVER 22 DEGREES C
WATERS WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED
STRUCTURE, WITH TIGHT BANDING AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER AND AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE. BASED OFF THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THE GOOD
STRUCTURE OF THE STORM THIS EVENING, JOHN WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME,
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE CONVECTION
TO DISSIPATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR JOHN TO BE CONSIDERED A REMNANT
LOW. ONCE IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW, THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY SPIN
DOWN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A LEFTWARD JOG IN THE TRACK EARLIER TODAY, THE TROPICAL STORM
HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 300/12 KT. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER, THE LEFT-BIASED GFS, WHICH HAD BEEN
CALLING FOR AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF JOHN AND TROPICAL
STORM KRISTY TO THE SOUTHWEST, HAS NOW BACKED OFF THAT SOLUTION IN
THE 18Z RUN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RIGHTWARD SHIFT IN MANY OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST TRACK
HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT, VERY CLOSE TO THE

2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 100240
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

John continues to slowly weaken as the storm moves over 22 degrees C
waters well west of the Baja California Peninsula. Although cloud
tops have become progressively warmer over the past 12 hours,
satellite imagery indicates that the storm still has a well-defined
structure, with tight banding around the system center and an
eye-like feature. Based off the decrease in convection, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 50 kt. This is in agreement with an
average of Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB and SAB. Given the good
structure of the storm this evening, John will likely maintain
tropical storm intensity through most of Friday. After that time,
progressively cooler SSTs and stable air should cause convection
to dissipate sufficiently enough for John to be considered a remnant
low. Once it becomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin
down until it dissipates early next week.

After a leftward jog in the track earlier today, the tropical storm
has resumed a motion of 300/12 kt. This track is expected to
continue for the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in
forward speed. Thereafter, the left-biased GFS, which had been
calling for an interaction between the remnants of John and Tropical
Storm Kristy to the southwest, has now backed off that solution in
the 18Z run. This has resulted in a rightward shift in many of the
consensus models. With this shift in guidance, the forecast track
has also been adjusted slightly to the right, very close to the
latest TVCN solution, which has the remnant low of John drifting
northwest then north later this weekend into early next week.

Swells associated with John continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to
reach portions of the southern California coast. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 25.5N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 26.3N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 27.2N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 27.7N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 28.4N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z 29.9N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 100239 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

...JOHN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 119.6W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN WILL LIKELY
BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SWELLS
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS COULD

2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 100239
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

...JOHN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 119.6W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 119.6 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue over the next couple of days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed. A turn to the north is expected late
this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and John will likely
become a remnant low this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells
are beginning to reach the coast of southern California and are
expected to continue through Saturday. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 100238
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 119.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 119.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.3N 121.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.2N 122.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.4N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.9N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO

2018-08-09 22:31

WTPN33 PHNC 092200
WARNING ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180809211422
2018080918 12E JOHN 017 03 295 13 SATL 020
T000 245N 1180W 055 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 255N 1202W 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 264N 1220W 035 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 271N 1234W 035 R034 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 277N 1245W 030
T072 285N 1257W 025
T096 290N 1260W 020
AMP
048HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
072HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
096HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 24.5N 118.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 118.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.5N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.4N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.1N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.7N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 28.5N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.0N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 118.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1218080306 100N 970W 15
1218080312 106N 982W 25
1218080318 110N 990W 25
1218080400 114N 998W 25
1218080406 119N1006W 25
1218080412 128N1023W 25
1218080418 128N1032W 25
1218080500 129N1040W 25
1218080506 132N1046W 25
1218080512 137N1050W 30
1218080518 142N1055W 30
1218080600 146N1062W 35
1218080606 149N1070W 45
1218080612 153N1075W 55
1218080612 153N1075W 55
1218080618 159N1079W 65
1218080618 159N1079W 65
1218080618 159N1079W 65
1218080700 165N1084W 70
1218080700 165N1084W 70
1218080700 165N1084W 70
1218080706 170N1089W 80
1218080706 170N1089W 80
1218080706 170N1089W 80
1218080712 177N1095W 90
1218080712 177N1095W 90
1218080712 177N1095W 90
1218080718 183N1101W 95
1218080718 183N1101W 95
1218080718 183N1101W 95
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080812 204N1121W 80
1218080812 204N1121W 80
1218080812 204N1121W 80
1218080818 215N1130W 75
1218080818 215N1130W 75
1218080818 215N1130W 75
1218080900 225N1141W 70
1218080900 225N1141W 70
1218080900 225N1141W 70
1218080906 233N1153W 65
1218080906 233N1153W 65
1218080906 233N1153W 65
1218080912 240N1167W 60
1218080912 240N1167W 60
1218080918 245N1180W 55
1218080918 245N1180W 55
NNNN

2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 092036 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

JOHN HAS RESUMED ITS GRADUAL WEAKENING. CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAVE WARMED, AND SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED
TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 55 KT BASED ON A THE LATEST DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS GENEROUS. NO CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AND CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT JOHN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
AROUND 36 H, SO THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGH THAT TIME. ONCE IT
BECOMES A REMNANT LOW, THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN UNTIL
DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS MADE A LEFT-OF-TRACK JOG OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/13 KT. DUE TO
THIS SHIFT, THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT SAID, THERE HAS BEEN NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING OR TRACK
GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER BECOMING POST-TROPICAL, THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING SLOWLY WITHIN AN
AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST

2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 092036
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

John has resumed its gradual weakening. Cloud tops near the center
of the tropical storm have warmed, and several recent microwave
overpasses indicate that deep convection is still primarily limited
to the northern and western semicircles. The intensity has been
lowered to 55 kt based on a the latest Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB
and SAB, and it is possible this is generous. No change has been
made to the intensity forecast, and continued steady weakening
should continue for the next day or two. The most recent dynamical
guidance indicates that John is likely to become a remnant low
around 36 h, so the forecast conservatively shows the system
maintaining tropical cyclone status through that time. Once it
becomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin down until
dissipating early next week.

The tropical storm has made a left-of-track jog over the past few
hours, and the initial motion estimate is now 290/13 kt. Due to
this shift, the track forecast has been adjusted west and south
through the entire forecast period. That said, there has been no
other significant change to the forecast reasoning or track
guidance. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward
around a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. for the
next day or two. After becoming post-tropical, the remnant
circulation of John is forecast to begin drifting slowly within an
area of weak low-level steering flow. The new NHC forecast is very
close to the multi-model consensus TVCN throughout the forecast
period.

Large swells associated with John are already affecting portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to
spread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast
by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 24.8N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 25.5N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 26.4N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 27.1N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 27.7N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 28.5N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 092035 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

...JOHN GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG
U.S. AND MEXICO PACIFIC COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 118.5W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN WILL
LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SWELLS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE
TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND

2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 092035
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

...JOHN GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG
U.S. AND MEXICO PACIFIC COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 118.5W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 118.5 West. John is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and John will
likely become a remnant low this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells
are forecast to reach the coast of southern California by late
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 092035
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 118.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 118.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 118.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 120.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.1N 123.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.7N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.5N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-09 16:31

WTPN33 PHNC 091600
WARNING ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180809150100
2018080912 12E JOHN 016 03 305 16 SATL 020
T000 242N 1167W 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 255N 1191W 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 266N 1211W 040 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 274N 1228W 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 279N 1240W 030
T072 286N 1254W 025
T096 295N 1255W 020
AMP
048HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
072HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
096HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 12E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 24.2N 116.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 116.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.5N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 26.6N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.4N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.9N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 28.6N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 117.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1218080306 100N 970W 15
1218080312 106N 982W 25
1218080318 110N 990W 25
1218080400 114N 998W 25
1218080406 119N1006W 25
1218080412 128N1023W 25
1218080418 128N1032W 25
1218080500 129N1040W 25
1218080506 132N1046W 25
1218080512 137N1050W 30
1218080518 142N1055W 30
1218080600 146N1062W 35
1218080606 149N1070W 45
1218080612 153N1075W 55
1218080612 153N1075W 55
1218080618 159N1079W 65
1218080618 159N1079W 65
1218080618 159N1079W 65
1218080700 165N1084W 70
1218080700 165N1084W 70
1218080700 165N1084W 70
1218080706 170N1089W 80
1218080706 170N1089W 80
1218080706 170N1089W 80
1218080712 177N1095W 90
1218080712 177N1095W 90
1218080712 177N1095W 90
1218080718 183N1101W 95
1218080718 183N1101W 95
1218080718 183N1101W 95
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080812 204N1121W 80
1218080812 204N1121W 80
1218080812 204N1121W 80
1218080818 215N1130W 75
1218080818 215N1130W 75
1218080818 215N1130W 75
1218080900 225N1141W 70
1218080900 225N1141W 70
1218080900 225N1141W 70
1218080906 233N1153W 65
1218080906 233N1153W 65
1218080906 233N1153W 65
1218080912 242N1167W 60
1218080912 242N1167W 60
NNNN

2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 091432 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

JOHN'S STRUCTURE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
COMBINATION OF COOL SSTS AND STABLE AIR APPEAR TO BE CAUSING
CONVECTION TO ERODE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE'S
CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WAS USED TO DETERMINE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS INEVITABLE.
THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST WEAKENING
RATE, AND JOHN IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 H.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NEAR 305/14 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST, AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WILL GRADUALLY
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN
TO A DRIFT WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BY TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 091432
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

John's structure hasn't changed much over the past few hours. A
combination of cool SSTs and stable air appear to be causing
convection to erode in the southern portion of the cyclone's
circulation. A blend of objective and subjective Dvorak
classifications was used to determine the initial intensity of 60
kt. The tropical storm will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs
for the next couple of days, and further weakening is inevitable.
The intensity models are in good agreement on the forecast weakening
rate, and John is still forecast to become a remnant low within the
next 48 h.

The initial motion continues near 305/14 kt. There is no change to
the reasoning behind the track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is
merely an update of the previous advisory. All of the guidance
remains in good agreement that the cyclone should will gradually
turn west-northwestward as it moves around a mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern U.S. for the next few days. By the
end of the forecast period, the remnant low is likely to slow down
to a drift within an area of weak low-level steering flow.

Large swells associated with John are already affecting portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to
spread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast
by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 24.5N 117.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 25.5N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 26.6N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 27.4N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 27.9N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 28.6N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 091432 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

...JOHN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 117.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SWELLS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE
TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND

2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 091432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

...JOHN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 117.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 117.3 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and John is expected to
become a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells
are forecast to reach the coast of southern California by late
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 091431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 119.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.6N 121.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.4N 122.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.9N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.6N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 117.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-09 10:31

WTPN33 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 23.3N 115.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 115.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.8N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.9N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.9N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.5N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.1N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.0N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 116.1W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091600Z, 092200Z, 100400Z AND 101000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 090844
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

The satellite presentation of John continues to degrade, with the
central dense overcast decreasing in both size and intensity.
Scatterometer data also indicate that the low-level center is
southwest of the mid-level center, hinting that the circulation
could be decoupling. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, near
the latest TAFB and CIMSS-ADT estimates. John is rapidly moving
over cool waters into a dry stable airmass, which should cause
further weakening. The new NHC wind speed prediction follows the
trend of the HFIP corrected-consensus guidance (a top performer this
year), leading to a small reduction in the forecast. Remnant low
status is forecast after 36 hours when the cyclone moves over
sub-22C waters with little environmental instability.

John has turned leftward, now estimated at 305/14 kt. The tropical
cyclone should continue to gradually turn toward the west-northwest
over the next few days as it moves around a ridge situated over the
southwestern United States. John's remnants are likely to drift
northward or northwestward at long range in a region of weak
steering currents. The track guidance is in very good agreement and
the official forecast is close to the previous one.

John is producing large swells that are already affecting portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells
are predicted to spread northward along the west coast of the
peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
California by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 23.7N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.8N 117.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 25.9N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 26.9N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 27.5N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 28.1N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 29.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 090844 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JOHN CONTINUES TO DEGRADE, WITH THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DECREASING IN BOTH SIZE AND INTENSITY.
SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER, HINTING THAT THE CIRCULATION
COULD BE DECOUPLING. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 60 KT, NEAR
THE LATEST TAFB AND CIMSS-ADT ESTIMATES. JOHN IS RAPIDLY MOVING
OVER COOL WATERS INTO A DRY STABLE AIRMASS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
FURTHER WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE
TREND OF THE HFIP CORRECTED-CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (A TOP PERFORMER THIS
YEAR), LEADING TO A SMALL REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST. REMNANT LOW
STATUS IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
SUB-22C WATERS WITH LITTLE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY.

JOHN HAS TURNED LEFTWARD, NOW ESTIMATED AT 305/14 KT. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. JOHN'S REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT LONG RANGE IN A REGION OF WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

JOHN IS PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS THAT ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS
ARE PREDICTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
PENINSULA TODAY AND REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-

2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 090844 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

...JOHN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT THE DANGEROUS SURF THREAT
CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 115.9W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 090844
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

...JOHN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT THE DANGEROUS SURF THREAT
CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 115.9W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 115.9 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and John is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula, and will spread northward along the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California
by late today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 090842
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 115.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 115.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.9N 119.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.9N 121.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.5N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.1N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 29.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 090232 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 PM MDT WED AUG 08 2018

AFTER MAKING A BIT OF A COMEBACK EARLIER TODAY, THE FINAL WEAKENING
PHASE OF JOHN APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN. THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT
ON VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS
BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
JOHN IS BEGINNING TO CROSS A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF SST INTO COOLER
WATERS AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. JOHN IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY, IF NOT SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION, 325/14 KT, IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE LEFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE THEREAFTER AS THE INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW SYSTEM COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, JOHN'S REMNANTS ARE
LIKELY TO SLOWLY MEANDER IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, A SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND JOHN'S
OUTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 090232
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

After making a bit of a comeback earlier today, the final weakening
phase of John appears to have begun. The eye is no longer apparent
on visible or infrared imagery and the inner core convection is
becoming more fragmented. The current intensity is set at 70 kt
based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
John is beginning to cross a significant gradient of SST into cooler
waters and a drier, more stable air mass should cause steady
weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model
consensus. John is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical
remnant low by Saturday, if not sooner.

The initial motion, 325/14 kt, is about the same as before. The
track forecast is fairly straightforward. The tropical cyclone
should continue to move northwestward on the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level ridge for the next day or two. A gradual turn
toward the left should take place thereafter as the increasingly
shallow system comes more under the influence of the low-level
flow. Near the end of the forecast period, John's remnants are
likely to slowly meander in a region of weak steering currents.
The track guidance is in good agreement and the official forecast
is slightly north of the previous one.

Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
to portions of Baja California Sur through Thursday morning.

John is also producing large swells that are already affecting
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast
of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
California by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 23.1N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.2N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 25.6N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 26.8N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 28.0N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 28.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 29.5N 125.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 090231 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 PM MDT WED AUG 08 2018

...JOHN WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 114.4W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JOHN WILL
PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY, AND TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).

2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 090231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

...JOHN WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 114.4W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 114.4 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of John will
pass well to the southwest and west of Baja California Sur through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and John is
expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, and to degenerate
into a remnant low Friday night or Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated
maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula and will spread northward along the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California
by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 090230 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.4W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.4W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 116.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.8N 120.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 090230
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.4W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.4W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 116.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.8N 120.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 29.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 114.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-09 03:31

WTPN33 PHNC 090400
WARNING ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180809023742
2018080900 12E JOHN 014 03 325 15 SATL 020
T000 227N 1138W 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 242N 1161W 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 256N 1183W 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 268N 1204W 040 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 275N 1222W 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 280N 1247W 030
T096 285N 1255W 025
T120 295N 1255W 015
AMP
072HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
096HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 014
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 113.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 113.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.2N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.6N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 26.8N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.5N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.0N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 114.6W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1218080306 100N 970W 15
1218080312 106N 982W 25
1218080318 110N 990W 25
1218080400 114N 998W 25
1218080406 119N1006W 25
1218080412 128N1023W 25
1218080418 128N1032W 25
1218080500 129N1040W 25
1218080506 132N1046W 25
1218080512 137N1050W 30
1218080518 143N1055W 30
1218080600 146N1062W 35
1218080606 149N1070W 45
1218080612 153N1076W 55
1218080612 153N1076W 55
1218080618 159N1079W 60
1218080618 159N1079W 60
1218080700 164N1084W 70
1218080700 164N1084W 70
1218080700 164N1084W 70
1218080706 170N1089W 75
1218080706 170N1089W 75
1218080706 170N1089W 75
1218080712 175N1095W 90
1218080712 175N1095W 90
1218080712 175N1095W 90
1218080718 183N1101W 90
1218080718 183N1101W 90
1218080718 183N1101W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080812 203N1119W 75
1218080812 203N1119W 75
1218080812 203N1119W 75
1218080818 215N1129W 75
1218080818 215N1129W 75
1218080818 215N1129W 75
1218080900 227N1138W 70
1218080900 227N1138W 70
1218080900 227N1138W 70
NNNN

2018-08-08 22:31

WTPN33 PHNC 082200
WARNING ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180808210129
2018080818 12E JOHN 013 03 320 15 SATL 020
T000 215N 1129W 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 232N 1150W 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 246N 1172W 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 258N 1193W 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 267N 1214W 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 275N 1245W 030
T096 280N 1260W 025
T120 290N 1260W 015
AMP
072HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
096HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 013
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 112.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 112.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.2N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.6N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.8N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.7N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.5N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 28.0N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.0N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 113.6W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 708 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1218080306 100N 970W 15
1218080312 106N 982W 25
1218080318 110N 990W 25
1218080400 114N 998W 25
1218080406 119N1006W 25
1218080412 128N1023W 25
1218080418 128N1032W 25
1218080500 129N1040W 25
1218080506 132N1046W 25
1218080512 137N1050W 30
1218080518 143N1055W 30
1218080600 146N1062W 35
1218080606 149N1070W 45
1218080612 153N1076W 55
1218080612 153N1076W 55
1218080618 159N1079W 60
1218080618 159N1079W 60
1218080700 164N1084W 70
1218080700 164N1084W 70
1218080700 164N1084W 70
1218080706 170N1089W 75
1218080706 170N1089W 75
1218080706 170N1089W 75
1218080712 175N1095W 90
1218080712 175N1095W 90
1218080712 175N1095W 90
1218080718 183N1101W 90
1218080718 183N1101W 90
1218080718 183N1101W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080800 189N1108W 90
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080806 196N1114W 85
1218080812 203N1119W 75
1218080812 203N1119W 75
1218080812 203N1119W 75
1218080818 215N1129W 75
1218080818 215N1129W 75
1218080818 215N1129W 75
NNNN

2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 082032 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 PM MDT WED AUG 08 2018

JOHN HAS SHOWN SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY
AS THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A 20 N MI WIDE CLOUD-FILLED EYE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 65-77 KT RANGE, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. OTHER THAN
THIS TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE WEAKENING, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST, AS THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES JOHN OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE CENTER OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH JOHN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
IN 24 H OR LESS AND TO A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 48-72 H.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/13, A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER. A
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N 124W AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER JOHN
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR SO. AFTER THAT, THE CYCLONE OR
ITS REMNANTS IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A SLOW MOTION
IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANTS OF JOHN MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT
STEERING CURRENTS. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, A SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND JOHN'S
OUTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 082032
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

John has shown some improved organization since the last advisory
as the system has formed a 20 n mi wide cloud-filled eye. Satellite
intensity estimates remain in the 65-77 kt range, so the initial
intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory. Other than
this temporary break in the weakening, there is little change to the
intensity forecast, as the forecast track takes John over
progressively colder sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
air mass. The new intensity forecast is in the center of the
intensity guidance, with John expected to weaken to a tropical storm
in 24 h or less and to a remnant low between 48-72 h.

The initial motion is 325/13, a bit faster than earlier. A
combination of an upper-level low near 19N 124W and a mid- to
upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer John
northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the cyclone or
its remnants is forecast to turn west-northwestward in the low-level
trade wind flow. Near the end of the forecast period, a slow motion
is expected as the remnants of John move into an area of light
steering currents. The guidance envelope has shifted a little to
the north from the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is
north of and faster than the previous forecast.

Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.
Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California
Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.

John is also producing large swells that are already affecting
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast
of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
California by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.0N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.2N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.6N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 26.7N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 27.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 28.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 082032 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 PM MDT WED AUG 08 2018

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 113.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF JOHN WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JOHN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY, AND DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES

2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 082032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 113.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 113.5 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of John will pass well to the southwest of Baja California
Sur today through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and John is
expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, and degenerate into
a remnant low Friday night or Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated
maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula and will spread northward along the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California
by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 082031 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
2100 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 117.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 082031
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
2100 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 117.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ42 KNHC 081436 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 AM MDT WED AUG 08 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JOHN HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS OR SO, WITH THE EYE NO LONGER PRESENT IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE DATA. THE CDO HAS ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY LESS
SYMMETRIC THAN NOTED YESTERDAY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. JOHN WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
BY THURSDAY, JOHN WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS AND A MORE
RAPID RATE OF FILLING IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. JOHN IS PREDICTED
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT REACHES SSTS OF AROUND
21C.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/10 KT. JOHN SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS A VERTICALLY DEEP
CYCLONE, BUT ONCE IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IT
IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, A SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND JOHN'S
OUTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE, INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ42 KNHC 081436
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

The satellite presentation of John has degraded over the past 12
hours or so, with the eye no longer present in conventional
satellite data. The CDO has also become considerably less
symmetric than noted yesterday. Satellite intensity estimates
range from 65 to 77 kt, and the initial intensity has been
lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. John will be moving over
cooler waters within the next 6-12 hours and into a more stable
atmosphere, which should cause gradual weakening through tonight.
By Thursday, John will be moving over much colder SSTs and a more
rapid rate of filling is expected by that time. John is predicted
to become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days as it reaches SSTs of around
21C.

The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. John should
continue moving northwestward while it remains a vertically deep
cyclone, but once it weakens and becomes a more shallow system it
is expected to turn west-northwestward in the low-level trade
wind flow. The dynamical model guidance remains in excellent
agreement and little change was required to the previous NHC
track forecast.

Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.
Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California
Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.

John is also producing large swells that are already affecting
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast
of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
California by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 20.7N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 27.5N 126.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 081435 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 AM MDT WED AUG 08 2018

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE JOHN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 112.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF JOHN WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY, AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES

2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 081435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE JOHN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 112.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 112.3 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of John will pass well to the southwest of Baja California
Sur today through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days,
and John is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, and
degenerate into a remnant low late Friday or early Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated
maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula and will spread northward along the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California
by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ22 KNHC 081434 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ22 KNHC 081434
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.5N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 112.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-08 15:34

WTPN33 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 111.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 111.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.0N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.5N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.9N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.9N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.9N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.0N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.5N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 112.5W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 794 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-08 10:31

WTPN33 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 111.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 111.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.1N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.8N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.2N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.3N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.8N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.0N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.3N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 111.7W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND
091000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 080858 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 AM MDT WED AUG 08 2018

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE EYE OF JOHN PASSED
ABOUT 9 NMI NORTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND AROUND 0030 UTC, WITH THE
ISLAND POSSIBLY BEING WITHIN OR JUST OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. ADDITIONAL
DATA FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION ON THE ISLAND INDICATE THAT THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND REPORTED IN 15-MINUTE INTERVALS WAS 48 KT AT
0230 UTC, WITH ANOTHER 70-KT GUST REPORTED AT 0200 UTC. THE LOWEST
PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 970 MB AT 0015 UTC, WHICH IS PROBABLY A 4-5 MB
TOO LOW. SINCE THAT TIME, JOHN'S EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED, BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE
EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT
BASED ON A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 87 KT AND DUE TO THE RECENT
UPTICK IN EYEWALL CONVECTION.

ALTHOUGH JOHN SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS
OR SO, THE GENERAL TREND CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE
INGESTION OF MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THE INSTABILITY AND INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST,
AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE FSSE AND HCCA MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/10 KT.
JOHN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS MORNING, AND THEN CONTINUE THAT
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND SHALLOW
CYCLONE BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 080858
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

As mentioned in the previous discussion, the eye of John passed
about 9 nmi northeast of Socorro Island around 0030 UTC, with the
island possibly being within or just outside the eyewall. Additional
data from an automated station on the island indicate that the
highest sustained wind reported in 15-minute intervals was 48 kt at
0230 UTC, with another 70-kt gust reported at 0200 UTC. The lowest
pressure measured was 970 mb at 0015 UTC, which is probably a 4-5 mb
too low. Since that time, John's eye has occasionally become
cloud-filled, but deep convection has recently developed in the
eyewall. The initial intensity is only decreased slightly to 85 kt
based on a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 87 kt and due to the recent
uptick in eyewall convection.

Although John should remain over warm waters for another 12 hours
or so, the general trend calls for steady weakening due to the
ingestion of more stable air to the north, which is expected to
decrease the instability and inner-core convection. The official
intensity forecast is lower than the previous intensity forecast,
and is similar to a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330/10 kt.
John is expected to return to a northwestward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed later this morning, and then continue that
motion for the next 72 hours. After that time, a turn toward the
west-northwestward is forecast due to the weakening and shallow
cyclone being steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new
official forecast remains in close agreement with the previous
advisory, and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.

Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.
Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California
Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 20.0N 111.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.1N 112.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.2N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 25.3N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.8N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 12/0600Z 27.0N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 27.3N 127.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 080857 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 AM MDT WED AUG 08 2018

...JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 111.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER
THIS MORNING, WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, JOHN WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB (28.71 INCHES).

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 080857
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

...JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 111.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 111.6 West. John is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn back toward
the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later
this morning, with that motion continuing for the next few days.
On the forecast track, John will pass well to the southwest of Baja
California Sur today and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
John is expected to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated
maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by John will affect portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 080857 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 116.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 122.9W...POST-TROPICAL

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 080857
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 116.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 122.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.3N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 111.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-08-08 07:46

WTPN33 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 110.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 110.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.4N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.0N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.9N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.6N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.0N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.0N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 111.3W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 895 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 080229 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 PM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018

THE EYE OF JOHN PASSED A SHORT DISTANCE EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND A
FEW HOURS AGO, AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
NARROWLY MISSED THE ISLAND. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT SOCORRO
RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 70 KT AT 2300 UTC. ALTHOUGH JOHN'S INNER
CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH JOHN SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THE DETERIORATION OF ITS CONVECTION SUGGESTS IT
IS NOW IN A SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, SO NO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS AND
NEAR THE CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/9 KT. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATER, THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN TO THE LEFT
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
MUCH OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE OUTER WIND FIELD
OF THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 080229
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

The eye of John passed a short distance east of Socorro Island a
few hours ago, and it is estimated that the radius of maximum winds
narrowly missed the island. An automated station at Socorro
recorded a wind gust to 70 kt at 2300 UTC. Although John's inner
core convection has weakened somewhat, Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an intensity of 90 kt for
this advisory. Although John should remain over warm waters for
the next day or so, the deterioration of its convection suggests it
is now in a somewhat less favorable atmospheric environment, so no
further strengthening is expected. The official intensity forecast
is somewhat above the model consensus for the first 1-2 days and
near the consensus thereafter.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward or 315/9 kt. The
hurricane should continue to move northwestward along the
southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge for the next couple of
days. Later, the weakening cyclone is likely to turn to the left
and eventually move westward following the low-level flow. The new
official forecast is in close agreement with the previous one and
much of the track model guidance, which remains in good agreement.

Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula, an eastward shift of the forecast
track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field
of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds close to
the west coast of the peninsula. In addition, a surge of moisture
around John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally
heavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next
couple of days. Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the
Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 19.2N 111.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 27.0N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z 27.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 072035 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018

THE EYE OF JOHN HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, HOWEVER THE SURROUNDING
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TOPS HAVE WARMED, AND A 1642 UTC AMSU
MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO T5.6, SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KT. THERE
IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR JOHN TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER THAT TIME, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
OVER DECREASING SSTS AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY TO RAPID
WEAKENING AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
DAY 4 WHEN IT IS OVER SSTS OF 20-21C. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS TO HOW RAPID JOHN WILL SPIN DOWN. THE
NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL, BUT
SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

JOHN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/9 KT. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
AFTER THAT TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 072035
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

The eye of John has become more distinct in visible and infrared
satellite imagery during the past few hours, however the surrounding
convective clouds tops have warmed, and a 1642 UTC AMSU
microwave overpass indicated that the eyewall was open over the
northwestern portion of the circulation. Although objective Dvorak
T-numbers have increased to T5.6, subjective estimates from TAFB and
SAB are unchanged so the initial intensity is kept at 90 kt. There
is still an opportunity for John to become a major hurricane tonight
or early Wednesday while it remains over warm water and in a low
shear environment. After that time, the hurricane will be moving
over decreasing SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic
environment. These conditions should result in steady to rapid
weakening and John is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
day 4 when it is over SSTs of 20-21C. There is significant spread
in the intensity guidance as to how rapid John will spin down. The
NHC forecast is a little higher than the ICON consensus model, but
shows a faster rate of weakening than the statistical guidance.

John is moving northwestward or 320/9 kt. The hurricane should
continue moving northwestward around the western side of a
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next 2-3 days.
After that time, the system should turn westward as it weakens and
comes under the influence of the low-level flow. The track
guidance remains in excellent agreement and the new NHC track is
essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula, an eastward shift of the forecast
track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field
of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds close to
the west coast of the peninsula. In addition, a surge of moisture
around John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally
heavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next
couple of days. Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the
Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.7N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.9N 111.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 23.0N 115.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 26.6N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 27.0N 124.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/1800Z 27.0N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 071447 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 AM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE
RAGGED EYE OF JOHN THIS MORNING, BUT THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND COOLED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE T5.0/90 KT, WHICH SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED TO THAT VALUE. JOHN HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS OVER
WARM WATER IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY, AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR JOHN TO ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME, DECREASING SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING, AND JOHN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE SHIPS AND HCCA MODELS FOR THE FIRST
12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN IS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS AND
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

JOHN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/8 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
ONCE JOHN WEAKENS AND BECOMES A VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD
TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DANGEROUS CORE OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE OUTER
WIND FIELD OF THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 071447
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Visible and infrared satellite images have continued to show the
ragged eye of John this morning, but the surrounding convective
cloud tops have become more symmetric and cooled since the previous
advisory. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB were T5.0/90 kt, which support increasing the initial
wind speed to that value. John has about another 24 hours over
warm water in which to intensify, and the NHC intensity forecast
calls for John to attain major hurricane strength later today or
tonight. After that time, decreasing SSTs and a more stable
environment should lead to steady or rapid weakening, and John is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first
12 to 24 hours, and then is between the aforementioned models and
the intensity consensus thereafter.

John is moving northwestward or 320/8 kt. The track guidance is in
good agreement on taking the hurricane northwestward around the
western portion of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.
Once John weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system it should
turn westward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is
near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

The dangerous core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula. However, an eastward shift of the
forecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer
wind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds
to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore, interests
in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.9N 109.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 18.9N 110.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 27.0N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 080228 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 PM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018

...JOHN BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM SOCORRO AFTER PASSING JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 111.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, JOHN SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO, AND A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB (28.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 080228
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

...JOHN BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM SOCORRO AFTER PASSING JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 111.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 111.1 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a faster
northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days. On the
forecast track, John should pass to the southwest of Baja
California Sur Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
or so, and a weakening trend is expected to begin on Wednesday and
continue into Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated
maximum amounts of 3 inches through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by John will affect portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 072034 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018

...JOHN MAINTAINING 105-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 110.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, JOHN SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND JOHN COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM). A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH (83 KM/H) WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON
SOCORRO ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB (28.62 INCHES).

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 072034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

...JOHN MAINTAINING 105-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 110.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 110.5 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a faster
northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days. On the
forecast track, John should pass to the southwest of Baja
California Sur Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still possible and John could
become a major hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Steady
weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night and continue
into Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). A wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported on
Socorro Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja Sur, with isolated maximum
amounts of 3 inches through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by John will affect portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 071446 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 AM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018

...JOHN STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, JOHN SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 071446
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

...JOHN STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster
northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days. On the
forecast track, John should pass to the southwest of Baja
California Sur Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours, and John is forecast to become a major hurricane
tonight or early Wednesday. Steady weakening is expected to begin
Wednesday night and continue into early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1
to 2 inches over far southern Baja Sur, with isolated maximum
amounts of 3 inches through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by John will affect the coasts of
southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 080228 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 080228
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 27.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 072034 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.9N 111.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 113.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 115.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 117.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 072034
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.9N 111.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 113.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 115.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 117.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.6N 121.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 124.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 071446 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.9N 110.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 071446
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.9N 110.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.0N 123.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.9N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.5N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.0N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.4N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.6N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.0N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.0N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 110.6W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 943 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (ILEANA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.9N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.5N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.0N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.5N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 26.2N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.0N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.0N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 109.9W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA)FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

2018-08-08 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 108.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 108.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.2N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.7N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.3N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.9N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.8N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.2N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.0N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 109.2W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1041 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ42 KNHC 070831 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 AM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOHN HAS RESUMED ITS INTENSIFICATION
TREND, WITH A RAGGED EYE SHOWING UP IN THE NIGHT-VISIBLE AND OTHER
CHANNELS. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 70-90 KT, SO 80 KT IS USED
AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. JOHN HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO TO INTENSIFY
IN A LOW-SHEAR, WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT RAPIDLY CROSSES
INTO COOLER WATERS. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING AT A RATE
OF ABOUT 30 KT/24 HOURS, SO THIS TREND WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A PRETTY STEEP DROP IN INTENSITY AS THE
HURRICANE QUICKLY ENTERS COOL WATERS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING LIKELY.
THE LATEST FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT SHOWS JOHN
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 4 WHEN IT WILL BE OVER 21C WATERS.

JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD, NOW AT ABOUT 8 KT. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION BUT FASTER OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS JOHN WEAKENS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD,
STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK.

THE DANGEROUS CORE OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE OUTER
WIND FIELD OF THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THEREFORE, INTERESTS

2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ42 KNHC 070831
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Satellite images indicate that John has resumed its intensification
trend, with a ragged eye showing up in the night-visible and other
channels. Dvorak estimates are between 70-90 kt, so 80 kt is used
as the initial wind speed. John has another day or so to intensify
in a low-shear, warm-water environment before it rapidly crosses
into cooler waters. The hurricane has been intensifying at a rate
of about 30 kt/24 hours, so this trend was heavily weighted in the
latest forecast given the continuation of the conducive environment.
All of the guidance show a pretty steep drop in intensity as the
hurricane quickly enters cool waters, with rapid weakening likely.
The latest forecast is close to the previous one, but shows John
becoming post-tropical by day 4 when it will be over 21C waters.

John continues to move northwestward, now at about 8 kt. The
hurricane should move in that general direction but faster over the
next 3 days under the influence of a strengthening subtropical
ridge. As John weakens, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward,
steered more by the low-level ridge. Guidance remains tightly
clustered and no significant change was made to the previous
forecast track.

The dangerous core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula. However, an eastward shift of the
forecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer
wind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds
to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore, interests
in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 17.3N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 18.2N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 19.7N 111.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 21.3N 112.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 27.2N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/0600Z 27.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ32 KNHC 070831 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 AM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018

...JOHN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 109.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, JOHN SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ32 KNHC 070831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

...JOHN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 109.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 109.1 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster
northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days. On the
forecast track, John should pass to the southwest of Baja
California Sur late Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and John is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight or early
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ22 KNHC 070831 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N 109.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.7N 111.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ22 KNHC 070831
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N 109.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.7N 111.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N 123.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 070231
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

John's satellite presentation has not changed significantly during
the past few hours. The tops warmed up significantly earlier, but a
new convective curved band is developing around the eye as we
speak. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale and
on this basis, the initial intensity is keep at 65 kt in this
advisory. The environment is quite favorable for intensification,
and although the intensity guidance is not as aggressive as earlier,
it still shows a strengthening hurricane, and this is reflected in
the NHC forecast. Beyond 3 days, John should be moving over cooler
waters, and rapid weakening should then begin. John is very likely
to become a remnant low by day 5 or perhaps earlier.

John continues to move toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 7 kt,
steered by the flow around a strong subtropical ridge extending
from the western United States westward across the Pacific. Since
the steering pattern is well established, track models are tightly
clustered increasing the confidence in the forecast. NHC keeps the
hurricane in the middle of the guidance envelope very close to
the HCCA corrected consensus and is not very different from the
previous one.

The core of John with its strongest winds is forecast to remain well
off the Baja California Peninsula, but having said that, any
deviation to the right of the track or an unexpected increase in the
area of tropical force winds, could bring tropical-storm-force
winds to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore,
interests in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this hurricane.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.7N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.8N 110.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 27.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 070231 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 PM MDT MON AUG 06 2018

JOHN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE TOPS WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER, BUT A
NEW CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND IS DEVELOPING AROUND THE EYE AS WE
SPEAK. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND
ON THIS BASIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEEP AT 65 KT IN THIS
ADVISORY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION,
AND ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS EARLIER,
IT STILL SHOWS A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE NHC FORECAST. BEYOND 3 DAYS, JOHN SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS, AND RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. JOHN IS VERY LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5 OR PERHAPS EARLIER.

JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT,
STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. SINCE
THE STEERING PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED, TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. NHC KEEPS THE
HURRICANE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE VERY CLOSE TO
THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND IS NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

THE CORE OF JOHN WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, BUT HAVING SAID THAT, ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN THE
AREA OF TROPICAL FORCE WINDS, COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THEREFORE,

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 062048 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 PM MDT MON AUG 06 2018

JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
BANDING AND VERY RECENT PICTURES SHOW THE FORMATION OF A BANDING
EYE. AS A RESULT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT,
WHICH IS BASED ON A TAFB DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 4.0 AND UW/CIMSS
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE CLOSE TO 65 KT. JOHN BECOMES
THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON.

JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THIS MORNING, THE
VARIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES STILL SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN CALLS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND BRINGS JOHN TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 H. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SHIPS, HCCA, AND FSSE MODELS. AFTER 48 H, JOHN WILL BE
MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING,
AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

JOHN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE LATE IN THE

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 062048
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

John has continued to intensify since the previous advisory.
Visible satellite images continue to indicate an increase in
banding and very recent pictures show the formation of a banding
eye. As a result, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt,
which is based on a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 4.0 and UW/CIMSS
objective Dvorak estimates that are close to 65 kt. John becomes
the fifth hurricane of the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane
season.

John is forecast to remain within a very favorable environment for
strengthening during the next day or so. Although some of the
intensity guidance is not quite as aggressive as this morning, the
various rapid intensification indices still show a high likelihood
of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours. The NHC forecast
once again calls for rapid intensification and brings John to major
hurricane strength within 36 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast
is near the upper-end of the guidance in best agreement with the
latest SHIPS, HCCA, and FSSE models. After 48 h, John will be
moving over much cooler waters and into a less conducive
thermodynamic environment. This should result in rapid weakening,
and John is forecast to become a remnant low by day 5.

John is moving northwestward at about 7 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to move northwestward around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days. Once
the system weakens and becomes a more shallow cyclone late in the
forecast period, it should turn westward in the low-level flow.
The overall track envelope has shifted eastward this cycle, with
the GFS and HWRF along the eastern edge of the track guidance
envelope while the ECMWF and UKMET are along the western side.
The new NHC forecast has been adjusted eastward and lies between
the ECMWF and the various consensus aids.

Due to the eastward shift in the forecast track and the predicted
increase in the size of John, interests in the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.0N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 26.6N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 27.2N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 061522 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018

CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE PERCENT SYMBOLS IN THE TEXT

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW THAT JOHN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
BANDING FEATURES NOW WRAP NEARLY COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER, WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO. ONE-MINUTE GOES-16
IMAGERY ALSO SHOW SEVERAL OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 WAS
THE BASIS OF THE 1200 UTC INTENSITY OF 55 KT, BUT WITH THE INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME, AND RAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ABOVE
4.0 FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KT.

JOHN IS WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS AROUND 30C, AND IN A LOW
SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
ALLOW FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A NEARLY 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RI
OVER THE THE NEXT 24 H, AND DTOPS GIVES AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
40 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 H. BASED ON THESE
DATA AND THE VERY AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A
40 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FROM 1200 THIS MORNING THROUGH 1200 UTC
TUESDAY. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS CLOSE
TO THE FSSE AND HCCA MODELS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME,
JOHN WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING.

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 061522 CCB
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Corrected to remove the percent symbols in the text

Early morning visible satellite images and recent microwave data
show that John continues to quickly become better organized.
Banding features now wrap nearly completely around the center, with
the development of a fairly symmetric CDO. One-minute GOES-16
imagery also show several overshooting convective cloud tops near
and to the east of the center. A TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5 was
the basis of the 1200 UTC intensity of 55 kt, but with the increase
in organization since that time, and raw objective T-numbers above
4.0 for the past few hours, the advisory intensity has been
increased to 60 kt.

John is within a very favorable environment for intensification.
The hurricane will be moving over SSTs around 30C, and in a low
shear and moist environment. These conditions are expected to
allow for rapid strengthening during the next day or so. The SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a nearly 80 percent chance of RI
over the the next 24 h, and DTOPS gives an 80 percent chance of a
40 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 h. Based on these
data and the very aggressive guidance, the NHC forecast calls for a
40 kt increase in strength from 1200 this morning through 1200 UTC
Tuesday. The NHC forecast calls for a peak intensity that is close
to the FSSE and HCCA models in 36 to 48 hours. After that time,
John will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable
environment which is expected to cause rapid weakening.

John is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The tropical
storm should turn northwestward and accelerate over the next day or
so as it is steered around the western portion of a mid-level ridge
that is centered over northern Mexico. As noted in the previous
discussion, some interaction with Ileana is likely, which could
cause some slow down of the forward speed of John. However since
John is the larger system, it should remain the dominant tropical
cyclone. The latest dynamical model guidance was similar to the
previous cycle and no significant change to the NHC forecast was
required. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the ECMWF and
is close to the HFIP corrected consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.5N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 061513 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018

CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE PERCENT SYMBOLS IN THE TEXT

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW THAT JOHN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
BANDING FEATURES NOW WRAP NEARLY COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER, WITH
THE DEVELOPED OF A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO. ONE-MINUTE GOES-16 IMAGERY
ALSO SHOW SEVERAL OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. A TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 WAS THE BASIS OF
THE 1200 UTC INTENSITY OF 55 KT, BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME, AND RAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ABOVE 4.0
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
60 KT.

JOHN IS WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS AROUND 30C, AND IN A LOW
SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
ALLOW FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A NEARLY 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RI
OVER THE THE NEXT 24 H, AND DTOPS GIVES AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
40 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 H. BASED ON THESE
DATA AND THE VERY AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A
40 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FROM 1200 THIS MORNING THROUGH 1200 UTC
TUESDAY. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS CLOSE
TO THE FSSE AND HCCA MODELS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME,
JOHN WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING.

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 061513 CCA
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Corrected to remove the percent symbols in the text

Early morning visible satellite images and recent microwave data
show that John continues to quickly become better organized.
Banding features now wrap nearly completely around the center, with
the developed of a fairly symmetric CDO. One-minute GOES-16 imagery
also show several overshooting convective cloud tops near and to the
east of the center. A TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5 was the basis of
the 1200 UTC intensity of 55 kt, but with the increase in
organization since that time, and raw objective T-numbers above 4.0
for the past few hours, the advisory intensity has been increased to
60 kt.

John is within a very favorable environment for intensification.
The hurricane will be moving over SSTs around 30C, and in a low
shear and moist environment. These conditions are expected to
allow for rapid strengthening during the next day or so. The SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a nearly 80 percent chance of RI
over the the next 24 h, and DTOPS gives an 80 percent chance of a
40 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 h. Based on these
data and the very aggressive guidance, the NHC forecast calls for a
40 kt increase in strength from 1200 this morning through 1200 UTC
Tuesday. The NHC forecast calls for a peak intensity that is close
to the FSSE and HCCA models in 36 to 48 hours. After that time,
John will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable
environment which is expected to cause rapid weakening.

John is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The tropical
storm should turn northwestward and accelerate over the next day or
so as it is steered around the western portion of a mid-level ridge
that is centered over northern Mexico. As noted in the previous
discussion, some interaction with Ileana is likely, which could
cause some slow down of the forward speed of John. However since
John is the larger system, it should remain the dominant tropical
cyclone. The latest dynamical model guidance was similar to the
previous cycle and no significant change to the NHC forecast was
required. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the ECMWF and
is close to the HFIP corrected consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.5N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 070230
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...JOHN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 108.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the ragged eye of Hurricane John was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 108.6 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a faster
northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and John is expected
to become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 070230 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 PM MDT MON AUG 06 2018

...JOHN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 108.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE RAGGED EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOHN IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB (29.21 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 062047 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 PM MDT MON AUG 06 2018

...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE...
..............ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 108.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOHN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 062047
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 108.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a faster
northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and John
is expected to become a major hurricane by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 061439 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018

...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 107.9W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND REACH
MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 061439
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 107.9W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 107.9 West. John is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a faster
northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so,
and John is expected to become a hurricane later today, and reach
major hurricane strength on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 070230 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 109.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.8N 110.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 070230
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 109.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.8N 110.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 062047 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 061439
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 061439 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 062047
TCMEP2

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 26.6N 121.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.2N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 062200
WARNING ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180806223753
2018080618 12E JOHN 005 03 335 07 SATL 020
T000 159N 1079W 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 168N 1087W 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 181N 1099W 095 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 196N 1113W 110 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 210N 1128W 105 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 243N 1170W 070 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 266N 1212W 045
T120 272N 1248W 030
AMP
120HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 107.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 107.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.8N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.1N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.6N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.0N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.3N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.6N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.2N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 108.2W.
TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1125 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1218072900 100N 970W 15
1218072906 100N 970W 15
1218072912 100N 970W 15
1218072918 100N 970W 15
1218073000 100N 970W 15
1218073006 100N 970W 15
1218073012 100N 970W 15
1218073018 100N 970W 15
1218073100 100N 970W 15
1218073106 100N 970W 15
1218073112 100N 970W 15
1218073118 100N 970W 15
1218080100 100N 970W 15
1218080106 100N 970W 15
1218080112 100N 970W 15
1218080118 100N 970W 15
1218080200 100N 970W 15
1218080206 100N 970W 15
1218080212 100N 970W 15
1218080218 100N 970W 15
1218080300 100N 970W 15
1218080306 100N 970W 15
1218080312 106N 982W 25
1218080318 110N 990W 25
1218080400 114N 998W 25
1218080406 119N1006W 25
1218080412 128N1023W 25
1218080418 128N1032W 25
1218080500 129N1040W 25
1218080506 132N1046W 25
1218080512 137N1050W 30
1218080518 143N1055W 30
1218080600 146N1062W 35
1218080606 149N1070W 45
1218080612 153N1076W 55
1218080612 153N1076W 55
1218080618 159N1079W 60
1218080618 159N1079W 60
NNNN

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.4N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.8N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.4N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.3N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.5N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 108.7W.
HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1086 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (ILEANA)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 061600
WARNING ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180806145142
2018080612 12E JOHN 004 03 300 08 SATL 020
T000 153N 1077W 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 160N 1086W 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 170N 1096W 095 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 183N 1110W 110 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 198N 1127W 110 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 229N 1166W 085 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 255N 1207W 055
T120 268N 1250W 035
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 107.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 107.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.0N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.0N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.3N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.8N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.9N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.5N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.8N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 108.0W.
TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1163 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1218072900 100N 970W 15
1218072906 100N 970W 15
1218072912 100N 970W 15
1218072918 100N 970W 15
1218073000 100N 970W 15
1218073006 100N 970W 15
1218073012 100N 970W 15
1218073018 100N 970W 15
1218073100 100N 970W 15
1218073106 100N 970W 15
1218073112 100N 970W 15
1218073118 100N 970W 15
1218080100 100N 970W 15
1218080106 100N 970W 15
1218080112 100N 970W 15
1218080118 100N 970W 15
1218080200 100N 970W 15
1218080206 100N 970W 15
1218080212 100N 970W 15
1218080218 100N 970W 15
1218080300 100N 970W 15
1218080306 100N 970W 15
1218080312 106N 982W 25
1218080318 110N 990W 25
1218080400 114N 998W 25
1218080406 119N1006W 25
1218080412 128N1023W 25
1218080418 128N1032W 25
1218080500 129N1040W 25
1218080506 132N1046W 25
1218080512 137N1050W 30
1218080518 143N1055W 30
1218080600 146N1062W 35
1218080606 149N1070W 45
1218080612 153N1077W 55
1218080612 153N1077W 55
NNNN

2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 107.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 107.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.6N 108.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.3N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.5N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.8N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.8N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.5N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 107.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1202 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

2018-08-07 07:31

WTNT82 EGRR 070404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 144.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2018 0 15.5N 144.3W 976 63
1200UTC 07.08.2018 12 15.6N 147.0W 981 56
0000UTC 08.08.2018 24 15.9N 149.8W 982 57
1200UTC 08.08.2018 36 16.0N 152.6W 980 61
0000UTC 09.08.2018 48 15.9N 155.8W 982 56
1200UTC 09.08.2018 60 16.0N 158.9W 986 53
0000UTC 10.08.2018 72 16.1N 162.4W 986 55
1200UTC 10.08.2018 84 16.2N 166.0W 985 53
0000UTC 11.08.2018 96 16.2N 169.1W 987 50
1200UTC 11.08.2018 108 16.2N 171.4W 989 52
0000UTC 12.08.2018 120 16.7N 173.0W 991 59
1200UTC 12.08.2018 132 17.8N 174.9W 998 47
0000UTC 13.08.2018 144 19.4N 177.2W 1000 43

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 104.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2018 0 18.4N 104.9W 986 67
1200UTC 07.08.2018 12 21.6N 109.4W 997 75
0000UTC 08.08.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 108.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2018 0 16.4N 108.8W 979 56
1200UTC 07.08.2018 12 17.1N 109.9W 967 75
0000UTC 08.08.2018 24 18.2N 111.1W 959 74
1200UTC 08.08.2018 36 19.5N 112.5W 956 72
0000UTC 09.08.2018 48 21.3N 114.4W 949 73
1200UTC 09.08.2018 60 22.6N 116.5W 954 74
0000UTC 10.08.2018 72 23.8N 118.6W 963 61
1200UTC 10.08.2018 84 24.8N 120.1W 980 50
0000UTC 11.08.2018 96 25.9N 121.6W 990 39
1200UTC 11.08.2018 108 26.3N 123.0W 997 31
0000UTC 12.08.2018 120 26.5N 123.8W 1001 28
1200UTC 12.08.2018 132 26.8N 124.2W 1004 25
0000UTC 13.08.2018 144 27.2N 123.8W 1007 23

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 15.3N 123.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2018 0 15.3N 123.7W 1005 26
1200UTC 07.08.2018 12 15.3N 125.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 08.08.2018 24 15.6N 126.0W 1004 22
1200UTC 08.08.2018 36 15.0N 127.7W 1004 21
0000UTC 09.08.2018 48 15.9N 128.7W 1004 20
1200UTC 09.08.2018 60 16.3N 129.6W 1005 22
0000UTC 10.08.2018 72 17.0N 129.8W 1006 24
1200UTC 10.08.2018 84 18.0N 129.4W 1007 22
0000UTC 11.08.2018 96 19.4N 128.6W 1009 19
1200UTC 11.08.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 9.8N 157.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2018 24 10.0N 157.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 08.08.2018 36 9.8N 158.4W 1004 23
0000UTC 09.08.2018 48 10.0N 158.4W 1003 29
1200UTC 09.08.2018 60 11.3N 157.7W 1000 52
0000UTC 10.08.2018 72 14.2N 158.3W 995 56
1200UTC 10.08.2018 84 16.6N 161.5W 998 53
0000UTC 11.08.2018 96 18.9N 165.5W 1002 50
1200UTC 11.08.2018 108 20.4N 170.6W 1003 52
0000UTC 12.08.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070404

2018-08-07 07:31

WTNT82 EGRR 061605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 141.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2018 0 15.0N 141.2W 949 79
0000UTC 07.08.2018 12 15.8N 144.2W 967 69
1200UTC 07.08.2018 24 16.2N 147.2W 980 61
0000UTC 08.08.2018 36 16.4N 150.5W 979 60
1200UTC 08.08.2018 48 16.2N 153.5W 981 59
0000UTC 09.08.2018 60 16.2N 156.8W 977 66
1200UTC 09.08.2018 72 16.1N 160.3W 980 58
0000UTC 10.08.2018 84 16.0N 163.6W 980 62
1200UTC 10.08.2018 96 15.9N 166.9W 987 57
0000UTC 11.08.2018 108 15.9N 169.7W 989 54
1200UTC 11.08.2018 120 16.2N 171.8W 989 53
0000UTC 12.08.2018 132 17.0N 173.6W 990 62
1200UTC 12.08.2018 144 17.9N 175.5W 994 56

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 101.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2018 0 15.6N 101.7W 985 65
0000UTC 07.08.2018 12 18.1N 105.0W 980 74
1200UTC 07.08.2018 24 20.8N 109.3W 994 69
0000UTC 08.08.2018 36 22.7N 113.3W 999 48
1200UTC 08.08.2018 48 23.5N 116.9W 1003 45
0000UTC 09.08.2018 60 24.0N 120.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 09.08.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 107.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2018 0 15.2N 107.6W 990 47
0000UTC 07.08.2018 12 15.6N 108.9W 982 73
1200UTC 07.08.2018 24 16.4N 109.7W 978 69
0000UTC 08.08.2018 36 17.7N 110.8W 979 67
1200UTC 08.08.2018 48 19.4N 112.3W 980 62
0000UTC 09.08.2018 60 21.5N 114.4W 973 62
1200UTC 09.08.2018 72 23.4N 117.3W 969 64
0000UTC 10.08.2018 84 25.1N 119.7W 982 52
1200UTC 10.08.2018 96 26.3N 121.5W 995 40
0000UTC 11.08.2018 108 27.8N 123.1W 1002 28
1200UTC 11.08.2018 120 28.0N 125.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 12.08.2018 132 27.9N 126.6W 1007 26
1200UTC 12.08.2018 144 27.7N 128.0W 1009 23

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.0N 49.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2018 0 32.0N 49.5W 1011 28
0000UTC 07.08.2018 12 33.9N 48.5W 1012 28
1200UTC 07.08.2018 24 37.2N 47.6W 1010 29
0000UTC 08.08.2018 36 40.0N 48.3W 1009 26
1200UTC 08.08.2018 48 41.6N 48.0W 1008 24
0000UTC 09.08.2018 60 43.1N 46.0W 1010 25
1200UTC 09.08.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.4N 154.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2018 24 9.4N 154.7W 1006 22
0000UTC 08.08.2018 36 9.7N 155.4W 1005 22
1200UTC 08.08.2018 48 10.0N 155.6W 1004 25
0000UTC 09.08.2018 60 11.3N 155.0W 1000 56
1200UTC 09.08.2018 72 13.6N 155.4W 1000 58
0000UTC 10.08.2018 84 15.8N 157.9W 999 46
1200UTC 10.08.2018 96 17.5N 161.8W 1000 57
0000UTC 11.08.2018 108 19.2N 166.6W 1004 54
1200UTC 11.08.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061604

2018-08-07 07:31

WTNT80 EGRR 061604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 141.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.08.2018 15.0N 141.2W INTENSE
00UTC 07.08.2018 15.8N 144.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 07.08.2018 16.2N 147.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.08.2018 16.4N 150.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 16.2N 153.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 16.2N 156.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.1N 160.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.0N 163.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 15.9N 166.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 15.9N 169.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 16.2N 171.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 17.0N 173.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 17.9N 175.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 101.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.08.2018 15.6N 101.7W MODERATE
00UTC 07.08.2018 18.1N 105.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.08.2018 20.8N 109.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.08.2018 22.7N 113.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2018 23.5N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 24.0N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 107.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.08.2018 15.2N 107.6W MODERATE
00UTC 07.08.2018 15.6N 108.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.08.2018 16.4N 109.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2018 17.7N 110.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 19.4N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 21.5N 114.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2018 23.4N 117.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 25.1N 119.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.08.2018 26.3N 121.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 27.8N 123.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 28.0N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 27.9N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 27.7N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.0N 49.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.08.2018 32.0N 49.5W WEAK
00UTC 07.08.2018 33.9N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2018 37.2N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2018 40.0N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 41.6N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 43.1N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.4N 154.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2018 9.4N 154.7W WEAK
00UTC 08.08.2018 9.7N 155.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 10.0N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 11.3N 155.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 13.6N 155.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 15.8N 157.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 17.5N 161.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 19.2N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061604

2018-08-07 07:31

WTNT80 EGRR 070404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 144.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.08.2018 15.5N 144.3W STRONG
12UTC 07.08.2018 15.6N 147.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2018 15.9N 149.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 16.0N 152.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 15.9N 155.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.0N 158.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.1N 162.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 16.2N 166.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 16.2N 169.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 16.2N 171.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 16.7N 173.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 17.8N 174.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 19.4N 177.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 104.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.08.2018 18.4N 104.9W MODERATE
12UTC 07.08.2018 21.6N 109.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 108.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.08.2018 16.4N 108.8W STRONG
12UTC 07.08.2018 17.1N 109.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2018 18.2N 111.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2018 19.5N 112.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 21.3N 114.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2018 22.6N 116.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2018 23.8N 118.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2018 24.8N 120.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 25.9N 121.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 26.3N 123.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2018 26.5N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 26.8N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 27.2N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 15.3N 123.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.08.2018 15.3N 123.7W WEAK
12UTC 07.08.2018 15.3N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2018 15.6N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 15.0N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 15.9N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.3N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 17.0N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 18.0N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 19.4N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 9.8N 157.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2018 10.0N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 9.8N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 10.0N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 11.3N 157.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 14.2N 158.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2018 16.6N 161.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 18.9N 165.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 20.4N 170.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070404

2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ42 KNHC 060859
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

The convective pattern of John has become significantly better
organized during the past several hours, with a large central dense
overcast forming and cloud top temperatures to -85C. A 0706Z GPM
microwave pass shows the rapid development of an inner core since
the previous pass 6 hours ago, along with impressive curved banding
features. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates gave 45 kt
at 0600 UTC, but given the increase in organization since that time,
the advisory wind speed is set to 50 kt.

All systems are go for the rapid intensification of John in an
environment of very warm SSTs, high mid-level moisture and low wind
shear. With the inner core formation, John will likely strengthen
quickly until it reaches cooler waters after 48 hours. The various
rapid intensification aids are about as high as they get, roughly 60
to 90 percent depending on the threshold, increasing the confidence
in the forecast. Thus the new NHC wind speed prediction is raised
from the previous one, and calls for rapid intensification through
48 hours. It should be noted that even though the NHC forecast is
rather bullish, the corrected consensus aids, the SHIPS and LGEM
models all show an even higher peak intensity.

The GPM pass helped set the initial motion at 300/7 kt, somewhat to
the left of the previous estimate. Model guidance remains in fairly
good agreement that John should move northwestward soon at an
increasing forward speed toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
While some interaction with TS Ileana is anticipated, the much
larger John should dominate, leading to perhaps a temporary
slowdown. The latest NHC forecast is shifted to the west in the
first couple of days, following the trend of the model guidance, but
ends up very close to the previous forecast at day 5. The UKMET is
significantly farther west, perhaps due to it having the two
tropical cyclones analyzed with nearly the same size, and little
weight is placed on that model for the official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 15.6N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.3N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.5N 110.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 18.8N 111.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 24.5N 119.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ42 KNHC 060859 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF JOHN HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FORMING AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO -85C. A 0706Z GPM
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF AN INNER CORE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PASS 6 HOURS AGO, ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING
FEATURES. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GAVE 45 KT
AT 0600 UTC, BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME,
THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT.

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO FOR THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF JOHN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW WIND
SHEAR. WITH THE INNER CORE FORMATION, JOHN WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN
QUICKLY UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE VARIOUS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS THEY GET, ROUGHLY 60
TO 90 PERCENT DEPENDING ON THE THRESHOLD, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THUS THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS RAISED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND CALLS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
48 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST IS
RATHER BULLISH, THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS, THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS ALL SHOW AN EVEN HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY.

THE GPM PASS HELPED SET THE INITIAL MOTION AT 300/7 KT, SOMEWHAT TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT JOHN SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD SOON AT AN
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ32 KNHC 060858
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
300 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018

...JOHN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 107.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) AND A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ22 KNHC 060857 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 108.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ22 KNHC 060857
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 108.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 060250 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2018

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT, AND BASED ON THESE THE DEPRESSION IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOHN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7. A WESTWARD-MOVING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT JOHN WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THIS WEAKNESS. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT
JOHN MAY INTERACT WITH TROPICAL STORM ILEANA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
JOHN IS MUCH LARGER THAN ILEANA, AND THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT OF THIS
INTERACTION IS THAT JOHN COULD MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 H, BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK ALSO LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CLUSTER OF
CONSENSUS MODELS.

JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY WARM SSTS, LOW
SHEAR, AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH ABOUT 60 H. THIS ENVIRONMENT
IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), AS INDICATED BY
HIGH PROBABILITIES IN THE SHIPS RI INDEX, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT RI
WILL BEGIN AS SOON AS THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO BECOME A

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 060250
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Twelve-E has
continued to become better organized, although recent microwave
satellite data suggest the low-level center is elongated from
northwest to southeast. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB have increased to 35 kt, and based on these the depression is
upgraded to Tropical Storm John.

The initial motion is 315/7. A westward-moving mid- to upper-level
trough over northern Mexico has weakened the subtropical ridge over
the northeastern Pacific, and the large-scale models are in good
agreement that John will move northwestward at an increasing
forward speed toward this weakness. A complicating factor is that
John may interact with Tropical Storm Ileana to the east. However,
John is much larger than Ileana, and the most likely impact of this
interaction is that John could move a little slower than currently
forecast. The new forecast track is a little to the north of the
previous track after 48 h, but is otherwise similar to the previous
forecast. The new track also lies just south of the cluster of
consensus models.

John is expected to be in an environment of very warm SSTs, low
shear, and a moist atmosphere through about 60 h. This environment
is quite favorable for rapid intensification (RI), as indicated by
high probabilities in the SHIPS RI index, and it is likely that RI
will begin as soon as the inner core of the storm becomes better
organized. The NHC forecast calls for the storm to become a
hurricane in 24-36 h and to reach a peak intensity of 95 kt in about
three days. After that, the forecast track takes John over rapidly
cooling sea surface temperatures, which should cause at least a
steady weakening. The intensity forecast is in best agreement with
the intensity consensus. It should be noted, however, that the
SHIPS and LGEM models both show more intensification than the
official forecast and make John a major hurricane in about three
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.9N 106.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.6N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.3N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.3N 108.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 18.5N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 26.0N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 052039 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO CLASSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE TWELFTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE
2018 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 30 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED DUE
TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA TO ITS
EAST-SOUTHEAST. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, HOWEVER, THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS LARGER
THAN ILEANA, MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ILEANA WILL MOVE
AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE'S
CIRCULATION AND WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION, AND THE FASTER GFS, HWRF, AND HMON TRACKS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS, WITHIN LOW SHEAR,
AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSERVATIVE DURING THE FIRST 36 H SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 052039
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

The low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico has become better defined today and the
associated deep convection has enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical depression, the twelfth tropical cyclone of the
2018 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward at about 6 kt. The
track and intensity forecast for the depression is complicated due
to the close proximity of Tropical Storm Ileana to its
east-southeast. Somewhat surprisingly, however, the track guidance
is in relatively good agreement on a general northwestward motion
around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico during the next several days. Since the depression is larger
than Ileana, most of the global models suggest that Ileana will move
around the northeastern portion of the new tropical cyclone's
circulation and weaken and dissipate. The NHC track forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope between the slower ECMWF
solution, and the faster GFS, HWRF, and HMON tracks.

The depression is currently over very warm SSTs, within low shear,
and a moist atmosphere. These factors suggest that the depression
will steadily strengthen and the intensity guidance is quite
aggressive in intensifying the system. The NHC forecast is slightly
more conservative during the first 36 h since the system is still
quite broad and lacks an inner core. Regardless, the NHC forecast
brings the system to hurricane strength within 36 h, and shows a
peak intensity of 90 kt in 3 days, which is in agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus model. Cool waters and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions should lead to steady to rapid weakening
late in the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.6N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 060250 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
900 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM JOHN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 106.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 060250
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 05 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM JOHN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 106.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 106.2 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and John is expected to strengthen into a hurricane
by Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 052038
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 105.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT, AND
STRENGTHEN INTO HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 060249 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 107.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 108.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 110.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 060249
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 107.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 108.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 110.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 106.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 052038 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 052038
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122018
2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 105.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-06 06:31

WTPN33 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.6N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.3N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.3N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.5N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.0N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.0N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 106.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1238 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (ILEANA)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-06 06:31

WTNT82 EGRR 060422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 138.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2018 0 14.5N 138.4W 934 91
1200UTC 06.08.2018 12 14.8N 141.1W 968 63
0000UTC 07.08.2018 24 15.3N 144.0W 973 65
1200UTC 07.08.2018 36 15.7N 147.1W 981 58
0000UTC 08.08.2018 48 16.0N 150.2W 978 58
1200UTC 08.08.2018 60 16.0N 153.3W 979 57
0000UTC 09.08.2018 72 16.0N 156.7W 978 65
1200UTC 09.08.2018 84 16.1N 160.1W 979 57
0000UTC 10.08.2018 96 16.3N 163.8W 980 59
1200UTC 10.08.2018 108 16.4N 167.1W 988 55
0000UTC 11.08.2018 120 16.9N 170.0W 988 59
1200UTC 11.08.2018 132 17.5N 172.6W 991 59
0000UTC 12.08.2018 144 18.1N 175.3W 997 48

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 99.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2018 0 14.1N 99.4W 997 45
1200UTC 06.08.2018 12 14.9N 102.0W 984 63
0000UTC 07.08.2018 24 16.5N 104.3W 977 73
1200UTC 07.08.2018 36 19.3N 107.6W 988 65
0000UTC 08.08.2018 48 21.5N 111.1W 995 68
1200UTC 08.08.2018 60 23.7N 113.5W 997 45
0000UTC 09.08.2018 72 26.4N 116.4W 1007 28
1200UTC 09.08.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 106.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2018 0 14.5N 106.5W 1000 38
1200UTC 06.08.2018 12 15.3N 108.0W 989 46
0000UTC 07.08.2018 24 15.5N 109.7W 982 56
1200UTC 07.08.2018 36 15.6N 111.0W 977 65
0000UTC 08.08.2018 48 16.0N 112.1W 973 71
1200UTC 08.08.2018 60 16.7N 113.1W 970 70
0000UTC 09.08.2018 72 18.2N 114.3W 970 71
1200UTC 09.08.2018 84 19.8N 116.0W 963 72
0000UTC 10.08.2018 96 21.9N 118.2W 964 65
1200UTC 10.08.2018 108 23.7N 120.2W 977 56
0000UTC 11.08.2018 120 25.5N 122.5W 988 48
1200UTC 11.08.2018 132 26.6N 124.9W 999 37
0000UTC 12.08.2018 144 27.0N 127.2W 1004 29

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.4N 49.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2018 0 31.4N 49.7W 1011 26
1200UTC 06.08.2018 12 31.8N 49.3W 1012 28
0000UTC 07.08.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 9.2N 155.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2018 48 9.2N 155.3W 1006 19
1200UTC 08.08.2018 60 9.5N 155.7W 1006 21
0000UTC 09.08.2018 72 10.4N 155.3W 1004 40
1200UTC 09.08.2018 84 12.3N 155.2W 1005 30
0000UTC 10.08.2018 96 14.2N 156.4W 1007 26
1200UTC 10.08.2018 108 15.0N 158.5W 1008 25
0000UTC 11.08.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060422

2018-08-06 06:31

WTNT80 EGRR 060422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 138.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2018 14.5N 138.4W INTENSE
12UTC 06.08.2018 14.8N 141.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.08.2018 15.3N 144.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.08.2018 15.7N 147.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2018 16.0N 150.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 16.0N 153.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 16.0N 156.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.1N 160.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.3N 163.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 16.4N 167.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 16.9N 170.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 17.5N 172.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 18.1N 175.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 99.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2018 14.1N 99.4W MODERATE
12UTC 06.08.2018 14.9N 102.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.08.2018 16.5N 104.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.08.2018 19.3N 107.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2018 21.5N 111.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2018 23.7N 113.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 26.4N 116.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 106.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2018 14.5N 106.5W MODERATE
12UTC 06.08.2018 15.3N 108.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.08.2018 15.5N 109.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.08.2018 15.6N 111.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2018 16.0N 112.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 16.7N 113.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 18.2N 114.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 19.8N 116.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2018 21.9N 118.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 23.7N 120.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 25.5N 122.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 26.6N 124.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2018 27.0N 127.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 9.2N 155.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2018 9.2N 155.3W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2018 9.5N 155.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 10.4N 155.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 12.3N 155.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 14.2N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 15.0N 158.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060422