Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ONE-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-05-17 08:16

WTIO51 PGTW 170300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517023141
2018051700 01A ONE 002 01 260 06 SATL 040
T000 131N 0489E 040 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 129N 0479E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 125N 0467E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 120N 0456E 040 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 115N 0446E 035 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 106N 0430E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 08:16

WTIO51 PGTW 162100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180516195306
2018051618 01A ONE 001 01 280 10 SATL 060
T000 132N 0495E 035 R034 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 132N 0486E 040 R034 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 128N 0471E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 124N 0458E 045 R034 065 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 119N 0446E 040 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 112N 0431E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 08:16

WTIO51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517023141
2018051700 01A ONE 002 01 260 06 SATL 040
T000 131N 0489E 040 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 129N 0479E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 125N 0467E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 120N 0456E 040 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 115N 0446E 035 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 106N 0430E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.0N 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.5N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.6N 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM EAST OF
ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 132N 495E 35
0118051700 131N 489E 40

2018-05-17 08:16

WTIO51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180516195306
2018051618 01A ONE 001 01 280 10 SATL 060
T000 132N 0495E 035 R034 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 132N 0486E 040 R034 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 128N 0471E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 124N 0458E 045 R034 065 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 119N 0446E 040 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 112N 0431E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.8N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.4N 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.9N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.2N 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 132N 495E 35

2018-05-17 08:16

WTIO31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.0N 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.5N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.6N 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM EAST OF
ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON LOW-
LEVEL TURNING EVIDENT IN A 162143Z AMSR2 PASS AND A 170000Z
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FIX FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS
IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING
STRUCTURE. TC 01A HAS TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF THESE STEERING FEATURES. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR-TERM, WITH WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (ABOUT
30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(10-15 KNOTS) AND A SUPPORTIVE
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. A CONSTRAINED INFLOW PATTERN
RESULTING FROM THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO HALT THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND
AND LEAD TO SLOW WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24.IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING
THAT SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY CHANGES DUE TO POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND THE
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 11 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//

2018-05-17 08:16

WTIO31 PGTW 170300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 08:16

WTIO31 PGTW 162100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.8N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 08:16

WTIO31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.8N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.4N 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.9N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.2N 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND DEVELOPING BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
1745Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 BASED ON CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE CYCLONE.
TC 01A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. TC 01A IS
FORECAST TO TURN ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT IS STEERED BY A
COMBINATION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND FLOW
FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TERRAIN. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE REMAINING STEADY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE FORECAST INTENSITY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE
TRACK AND MINOR DEVIATIONS COULD INCREASE LAND INTERACTION AND
RESULT IN MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST, BUT SMALL
DEVIATIONS IN TRACK COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY CHANGES. BASED
ON HIGH MODEL AGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//

2018-05-12 06:16

WTNT82 EGRR 120405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.05.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 129.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.05.2018 0 12.8N 129.8W 1006 27
1200UTC 12.05.2018 12 13.4N 130.3W 1008 20
0000UTC 13.05.2018 24 13.4N 130.5W 1009 20
1200UTC 13.05.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120405

2018-05-12 06:16

WTNT80 EGRR 120405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.05.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 129.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.05.2018 12.8N 129.8W WEAK
12UTC 12.05.2018 13.4N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.05.2018 13.4N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.05.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120405

2018-05-12 05:31

WTPN31 PHNC 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 130.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 130.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.3N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.9N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 130.2W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1388 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 7 FEET.//

2018-05-12 04:46

WTPZ41 KNHC 120232
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
800 PM PDT Fri May 11 2018

The depression has degenerated to a remnant low pressure area due to
the lack of organized convection during the past 12 h and ongoing
40 kt of westerly shear. Continued weakening of the system is
expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate completely
after 24 h. The low is expected to move slowly northwestward until
dissipation.

This is the last advisory on this system issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 12.9N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 12/1200Z 13.3N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0000Z 13.9N 130.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-05-12 04:46

WTPZ31 KNHC 120232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
800 PM PDT Fri May 11 2018

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 130.2W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E
was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 130.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward
speed are expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to
dissipated completely Saturday night or Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-05-12 04:46

WTPZ21 KNHC 120231
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018
0300 UTC SAT MAY 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 130.2W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 130.2W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 13.3N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 13.9N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 130.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-05-12 00:01

WTPN31 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 129.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 129.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.2N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.0N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
112200Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 129.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1377 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z
IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z.//

2018-05-11 23:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 112058
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 11 2018

THE PREVAILING STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR REMOVED ALL THE CONVECTION
FROM THE DEPRESSION, WHICH NOW CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS. SINCE THE SWIRL IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON SATELLITE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
HIGHER GUSTS. ISOLATED AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION COULD
STILL OCCUR, BUT GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THE NHC FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.
NONE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST REINTENSIFICATION OF THIS
SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THIS SLOW GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 12.8N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 13.2N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1800Z 14.0N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-05-11 23:16

WTPZ31 KNHC 112058
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 129.5W
ABOUT 1460 MI...2355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H).
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-05-11 23:16

WTPZ21 KNHC 112058
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018
2100 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 129.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 129.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 129.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 13.2N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-05-11 18:16

WTNT82 EGRR 111607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.05.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 128.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.05.2018 0 12.5N 128.6W 1005 31
0000UTC 12.05.2018 12 12.8N 129.4W 1005 26
1200UTC 12.05.2018 24 13.4N 129.8W 1007 24
0000UTC 13.05.2018 36 13.7N 130.1W 1008 21
1200UTC 13.05.2018 48 13.6N 130.3W 1009 20
0000UTC 14.05.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111607

2018-05-11 18:16

WTNT80 EGRR 111607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.05.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 128.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.05.2018 12.5N 128.6W WEAK
00UTC 12.05.2018 12.8N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.05.2018 13.4N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.05.2018 13.7N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.05.2018 13.6N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.05.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111607

2018-05-11 17:16

WTPN31 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 128.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 128.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.0N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.5N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.0N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.5N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 129.1W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1367 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 7
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z.//

2018-05-11 16:46

WTPZ41 KNHC 111432
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018

The depression consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located to
the west of the deep convection, which has been pulsing for the past
several hours. At this time, the low-level center is moving away
from the remaining thunderstorm activity. Satellite intensity
estimates have not changed, and the winds are still estimated at 30
kt. Belligerently unfavorable westerly shear of about 45 kt is
forecast to affect the depression, and with such an environment, I
have no option but to forecast that the cyclone will degenerate into
a remnant low within the next 12 hours or so.

Satellite fixes suggest that the depression in moving toward the
west or 280 degrees at about 4 kt. The depression or its remnants
will continue to move slowly, and will likely turn toward the
northwest and north embedded within light steering currents. This
is the solution provided by the track guidance. However, if the
system opens up into a trough sooner, it is more reasonable to
expected a westward drift instead.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 12.7N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z 14.0N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1200Z 14.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-05-11 16:46

WTPZ31 KNHC 111431
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANGING IN THERE BUT NOT FOR LONG...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 129.0W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 129.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the west-northwest is expected today and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to cause weakening, and the
depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight
or early Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-05-11 16:46

WTPZ21 KNHC 111431
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018
1500 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 129.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 129.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 128.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.0N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.5N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 129.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-05-11 11:31

WTPN31 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.5N 128.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 128.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.9N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.6N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.2N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.7N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 128.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1357 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.
//

2018-05-11 11:01

WTPZ41 KNHC 110842
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018

West-southwesterly vertical shear has increased to 35-45 kt over the
depression, which has allowed the center to run out ahead of the
main cluster of deep convection during the past few hours. Despite
the depression's deteriorating structure, recent ASCAT data
confirmed that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. Since the shear
is forecast to strengthen further, it will become increasingly more
difficult for the depression to sustain organized deep convection
near its center, and the system is likely to degenerate into a
remnant low by 24 hours. The remnant low should then dissipate in
about 3 days.

The depression has been moving due westward during the past few
hours, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt.
The cyclone is approaching a low- to mid-level trough to its
northwest, and it is expected to turn northwestward and slow down
during the next couple of days. The updated NHC forecast track has
been adjusted slightly westward from the previous one to account for
the recent short-term motion and a general westward shift in the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 12.6N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-05-11 11:01

WTPZ31 KNHC 110842
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 128.6W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2280 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 128.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph. A turn toward
the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to cause weakening during the
next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low by tonight or early Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-05-11 10:46

WTPZ21 KNHC 110841
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018
0900 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 128.6W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 128.6W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 128.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-05-11 10:46

WTPN31 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.5N 127.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 127.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.1N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.7N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.4N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.9N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 127.5W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1333 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND
120400Z.//

2018-05-11 06:16

WTNT80 EGRR 110406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.05.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 126.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.05.2018 12.2N 126.9W WEAK
12UTC 11.05.2018 12.5N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.05.2018 12.8N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.05.2018 13.3N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.05.2018 13.6N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.05.2018 13.6N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.05.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.6N 113.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.05.2018 13.6N 113.9W WEAK
00UTC 17.05.2018 13.3N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110406

2018-05-11 04:46

WTPZ41 KNHC 110235
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

Tropical Depression One-E continues to maintain a cluster of strong
convection to the northeast of the center even though it is
encountering 25-40 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.
Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range
from 25-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The
continued convection is possibly being aided by a weak upper-level
trough just west of the depression. The dynamical models forecast
this trough to move east of the depression in 24 h or less, exposing
the cyclone to even stronger shear. Based on this, the intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for
the system to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in less
than 24 h. One small change from the previous forecast is to keep
the system an extra 12 h as a remnant low in agreement with the
dynamical model guidance.

The initial motion is 295/8. Through its lifetime, the cyclone
should move generally west-northwestward to northwestward around the
western end of a weak subtropical ridge with a gradual decrease in
forward speed. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
track and lies a little to the east of the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 12.7N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-05-11 04:46

WTPZ31 KNHC 110234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 127.4W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 127.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A turn toward the northwest and a gradual decrease in forward speed
are expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is moving through an area of unfavorable upper-level
winds, and it is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure
area Friday or Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-05-11 04:46

WTPZ21 KNHC 110234
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018
0300 UTC FRI MAY 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.4W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.4W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 127.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 127.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-05-11 04:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 102032 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018
200 PM PDT THU MAY 10 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....N
....NO
...NOT
EXPECTED
TO
LAST
MORE
THAN
A
DAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 126.5W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE
126.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

......................................................................

2018-05-11 00:01

WTPN31 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 126.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 126.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.8N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.0N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 126.5W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1322 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.
//

2018-05-10 23:01

WTPZ41 KNHC 102033
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during
the past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface
circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical
depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are
2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The
depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind
environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a
short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner.

Since the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain
and appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5
knots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and
not change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a
weak subtropical ridge is anticipated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-05-10 23:01

WTPZ31 KNHC 102032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A DAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 126.5W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression One-E was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude
126.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and the depression is expected to become
a remnant low on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-05-10 23:01

WTPZ21 KNHC 102032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012018
2100 UTC THU MAY 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 126.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 126.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 126.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA