Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HOLA-18
in New Zealand, New Caledonia, Vanuatu

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-03-11 03:31

WTPS52 PGTW 110300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180311015622
2018031100 12P HOLA 019 01 175 18 SATL 020
T000 287S 1734E 055 R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 318S 1746E 045 R034 125 NE QD 330 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 28.7S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-11 03:31

WTPS52 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180311015622
2018031100 12P HOLA 019 01 175 18 SATL 020
T000 287S 1734E 055 R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 318S 1746E 045 R034 125 NE QD 330 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 28.7S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST OF
KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 28 FEET.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218031000 213S1691E 80
1218031000 213S1691E 80
1218031000 213S1691E 80
1218031006 231S1708E 70
1218031006 231S1708E 70
1218031006 231S1708E 70
1218031012 253S1725E 60
1218031012 253S1725E 60
1218031018 269S1732E 55
1218031018 269S1732E 55
1218031100 287S1734E 55
1218031100 287S1734E 55

2018-03-11 03:31

WTPS32 PGTW 110300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 28.7S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST OF
KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

2018-03-11 03:31

WTPS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 28.7S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST OF
KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) AND A 102205 METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A REGION OF 50-
55 KNOTS WITH AN LLCC BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM
DUE TO A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE NEAR 25 CELSIUS AND DECREASING RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES
ITS POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND WILL COMPLETE ETT IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 28 FEET.//

2018-03-10 22:16

WTPS52 PGTW 102100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180310200401
2018031018 12P HOLA 018 01 160 22 SATL 040
T000 274S 1734E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 307S 1748E 045 R034 145 NE QD 295 SE QD 175 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 338S 1760E 040 R034 175 NE QD 360 SE QD 165 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.7S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-03-10 22:16

WTPS52 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180310200401
2018031018 12P HOLA 018 01 160 22 SATL 040
T000 274S 1734E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 307S 1748E 045 R034 145 NE QD 295 SE QD 175 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 338S 1760E 040 R034 175 NE QD 360 SE QD 165 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.7S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.8S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 173.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218031000 213S1691E 80
1218031000 213S1691E 80
1218031000 213S1691E 80
1218031006 231S1708E 70
1218031006 231S1708E 70
1218031006 231S1708E 70
1218031012 253S1725E 60
1218031012 253S1725E 60
1218031018 274S1734E 55
1218031018 274S1734E 55

2018-03-10 22:16

WTPS32 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.7S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.8S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

2018-03-10 22:16

WTPS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.7S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.8S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 173.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD
SIDES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR LOOP
AND SUPPORTED BY A 101326Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A 35 NM
DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE
POLEWARD SEMI-CIRCLE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 12P CONTINUES TO
SPEED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE
(ROUGHLY 50 KNOTS); THUS, STORM RELATIVE SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 30
KNOTS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY ADVANCING SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 25 CELSIUS AND CONTINUE TO DROP AS TC 12P
SPEEDS SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 12P IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), SUCH AS A HIGHLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD. COMPLETE TRANSFORMATION INTO A
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TAU 24 AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BECOMES
SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//

2018-03-10 15:31

WTPS52 PGTW 101500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180310130112
2018031012 12P HOLA 017 01 145 27 SATL 020
T000 253S 1725E 055 R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 180 SE QD 105 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 291S 1748E 045 R034 160 NE QD 205 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 322S 1761E 040 R034 180 NE QD 280 SE QD 190 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 356S 1774E 035 R034 200 NE QD 320 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 25.3S 172.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 172.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.1S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

2018-03-10 15:31

WTPS52 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180310130112
2018031012 12P HOLA 017 01 145 27 SATL 020
T000 253S 1725E 055 R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 105 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 291S 1748E 045 R034 160 NE QD 205 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 322S 1761E 040 R034 180 NE QD 280 SE QD 190 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 356S 1774E 035 R034 200 NE QD 320 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 25.3S 172.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 172.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.1S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.2S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.6S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 173.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218031000 213S1691E 80
1218031000 213S1691E 80
1218031000 213S1691E 80
1218031006 231S1708E 70
1218031006 231S1708E 70
1218031006 231S1708E 70
1218031012 253S1725E 55
1218031012 253S1725E 55

2018-03-10 15:31

WTPS32 PGTW 101500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 25.3S 172.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 172.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.1S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.2S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-03-10 15:16

WTPS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 25.3S 172.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 172.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.1S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.2S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.6S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 173.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM NORTHEAST
OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION GETTING
SHEARED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATED POLEWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH IS
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS) AND COOL
SSTS (26C AND DROPPING). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 101052Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND THE PGTW
DVORAK FIX OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD, STEERED BY THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, AND RAPIDLY
DECAY. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO ETT BY TAU 12 AND
TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD BY TAU 36 AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z.//

2018-03-10 09:16

WTPS52 PGTW 100900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180310070805
2018031006 12P HOLA 016 01 130 07 SATL 025
T000 216S 1695E 070 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 055 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 252S 1717E 065 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 205 SE QD
180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 285S 1732E 055 R050 040 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 280 SE QD 190 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 315S 1742E 045 R034 200 NE QD 320 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 347S 1764E 040 R034 245 NE QD 345 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.6S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-10 09:16

WTPS52 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180310070805
2018031006 12P HOLA 016 01 130 07 SATL 025
T000 216S 1695E 070 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 252S 1717E 065 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 205 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 285S 1732E 055 R050 040 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 280 SE QD 190 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 315S 1742E 045 R034 200 NE QD 320 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 347S 1764E 040 R034 245 NE QD 345 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.6S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.2S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.5S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.5S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 34.7S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 170.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218031000 211S1689E 70
1218031000 211S1689E 70
1218031000 211S1689E 70
1218031006 216S1695E 70
1218031006 216S1695E 70
1218031006 216S1695E 70

2018-03-10 09:16

WTPS32 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.6S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.2S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-10 09:16

WTPS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.6S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.2S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.5S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.5S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 34.7S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 170.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CENTRAL
CONVECTION CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DISPLACED FURTHER FROM A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM LOW
LEVEL CLOUD STREAKS FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30 KNOTS AND INCREASING) VWS.
HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND PROVIDES AMPLE
VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE BARELY
CONDUCIVE AT 27C BUT WILL SOON DROP BELOW THRESHOLD AS THE TC TRACKS
FURTHER POLEWARD. TC 12P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE
THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 24, IT WILL BEGIN ETT AND BY TAU 48
WILL COMPLETELY TRANSFORM INTO A GALE FORCE COLD CORE LOW AS IT
SKIRTS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//

2018-03-10 04:01

WTPS52 PGTW 100300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180310020119
2018031000 12P HOLA 015 01 125 15 SATL 045
T000 213S 1694E 080 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD
075 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 243S 1720E 070 R064 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD
155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 277S 1736E 060 R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 225 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 305S 1744E 055 R050 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 310 SE QD 190 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 336S 1757E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
205 NE QD 315 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 169.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-10 04:01

WTPS32 PGTW 100300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-10 03:46

WTPS52 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180310020119
2018031000 12P HOLA 015 01 125 15 SATL 045
T000 213S 1694E 080 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 243S 1720E 070 R064 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 277S 1736E 060 R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 225 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 305S 1744E 055 R050 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 310 SE QD 190 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 336S 1757E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 315 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 169.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 169.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.7S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.5S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 33.6S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218031000 213S1694E 80
1218031000 213S1694E 80
1218031000 213S1694E 80

2018-03-10 03:46

WTPS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.7S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.5S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 33.6S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 170.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THERE IS WAVERING CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE DECOUPLING OF THE BULK CONVECTION FROM
THE LOWER LEVELS. A 092036Z 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWS THE PREVIOUS EYE
FEATURE NOW NEARLY UNRECOGNIZABLE WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
80 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE HEDGING ON THE LOWER END OF CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST WITH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY JET INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY WARM NEAR 27C DEGREES BUT
DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY POLEWARD OF 28 DEGREES SOUTH. TC 12P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EDGE OF THE STR BY TAU 24.
INCREASING WIND SHEAR FROM THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24
TC 12P WILL TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL COLD CORE SYSTEM. TC 12P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//

2018-03-09 22:16

WTPS52 PGTW 092100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180309201324
2018030918 12P HOLA 014 01 135 16 SATL 030
T000 204S 1681E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 125 SE QD
090 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 225S 1700E 070 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD
135 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 253S 1717E 060 R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 285S 1733E 050 R050 035 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 290 SE QD 185 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 316S 1745E 045 R034 145 NE QD 320 SE QD 165 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 168.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-09 22:16

WTPS52 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180309201324
2018030918 12P HOLA 014 01 135 16 SATL 030
T000 204S 1681E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 225S 1700E 070 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 253S 1717E 060 R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 285S 1733E 050 R050 035 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 290 SE QD 185 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 316S 1745E 045 R034 145 NE QD 320 SE QD 165 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 168.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 168.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.5S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.3S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.5S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.6S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80
1218030918 204S1681E 80

2018-03-09 22:16

WTPS32 PGTW 092100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 168.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 168.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.5S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-09 22:16

WTPS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 168.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 168.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.5S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.3S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.5S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.6S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL (14 NM DIAMETER) IRREGULAR EYE THAT
REFORMED BRIEFLY AT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, FROM 091720Z TO
091800Z, BEFORE FILLING IN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
091800Z EIR IMAGE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 091649Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. HOWEVER, THIS
FEATURE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED IN THE ASSOCIATED 37 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALING THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW AND HEDGED LOW DUE TO THE FLEETING
NATURE OF THE EYE FEATURE THAT THESE FIXES WERE BASED ON.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES CELSIUS. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE
UNFAVORABLE (BELOW 40 KJ); HOWVEVER, THIS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR
LIMITING LIMITING FACTOR AS TC 12P ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. AS
TC 12P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
UNFAVORABLE VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY TAU 36, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS
VWS DRASTICALLY INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND CONSENSUS MEMBERS REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//

2018-03-09 15:31

WTPS52 PGTW 091500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180309133352
2018030912 12P HOLA 013 01 130 10 SATL 060
T000 192S 1669E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD
100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 209S 1687E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 235S 1705E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 185 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 265S 1722E 050 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 298S 1734E 045 R034 150 NE QD 295 SE QD 190 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-09 15:31

WTPS52 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180309133352
2018030912 12P HOLA 013 01 130 10 SATL 060
T000 192S 1669E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 209S 1687E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 235S 1705E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 185 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 265S 1722E 050 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 298S 1734E 045 R034 150 NE QD 295 SE QD 190 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.5S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.5S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.8S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030906 186S1661E 80
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75
1218030912 192S1669E 75

2018-03-09 15:31

WTPS32 PGTW 091500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-09 15:31

WTPS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.5S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.5S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.8S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12P CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
PARTIAL 091112Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS BUT CONTINUES ALONG A WEAKENING TREND. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW AND A 090746Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
AS TC 12P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
UNFAVORABLE VWS (UP TO 90 KNOTS) AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY TAU 36,
TC 12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 48 AS VWS DRASTICALLY INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//

2018-03-09 09:46

WTPS52 PGTW 090900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180309074442
2018030906 12P HOLA 012 01 150 04 SATL 060
T000 184S 1655E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD
090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 197S 1667E 075 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD
105 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 219S 1685E 070 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD
145 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 247S 1703E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD
155 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 275S 1715E 050 R050 045 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 255 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 334S 1738E 040 R034 180 NE QD 340 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-09 09:46

WTPS52 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180309074442
2018030906 12P HOLA 012 01 150 04 SATL 060
T000 184S 1655E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 197S 1667E 075 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 105 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 219S 1685E 070 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 145 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 247S 1703E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD 155 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 275S 1715E 050 R050 045 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 255 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 334S 1738E 040 R034 180 NE QD 340 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.9S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.7S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.5S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 33.4S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 165.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030906 184S1655E 80
1218030906 184S1655E 80
1218030906 184S1655E 80

2018-03-09 09:46

WTPS32 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-09 09:46

WTPS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.9S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.7S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.5S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 33.4S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 165.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12P IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN INTENSITY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS A RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A PARTIAL 090536Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND A 090600Z
HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
80 KNOTS IS BASED ON WEAKENING CONVECTION AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T5.0 (90
KNOTS) FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS ALSO HEDGED ABOVE A
090301Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS). TC 12P IS BEGINNING TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. AS TC
12P TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER DETERIORATING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECEASE IN INTENSITY.
BY TAU 36, TC 12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. ALL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BUT THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//

2018-03-09 03:46

WTPS52 PGTW 090300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180309012913
2018030900 12P HOLA 011 01 180 02 SATL 040
T000 181S 1653E 085 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 115 SE QD
085 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 191S 1661E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 140 SE QD
115 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 209S 1676E 075 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD
145 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 234S 1693E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD
155 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 262S 1706E 050 R050 045 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 255 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 320S 1725E 040 R034 180 NE QD 340 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 165.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-09 03:46

WTPS52 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180309012913
2018030900 12P HOLA 011 01 180 02 SATL 040
T000 181S 1653E 085 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 191S 1661E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 209S 1676E 075 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 145 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 234S 1693E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD 155 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 262S 1706E 050 R050 045 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 255 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 320S 1725E 040 R034 180 NE QD 340 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 165.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 165.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.2S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 32.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030818 179S1653E 90
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85
1218030900 181S1653E 85

2018-03-09 03:31

WTPS32 PGTW 090300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 165.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 165.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-09 03:31

WTPS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 165.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 165.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.2S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 32.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SOME
INDICATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 082244Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE AND
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS BASED ON WEAKENING CONVECTION AND DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T4.5 AND T5.0 (77 TO 90 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST(28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 12P
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY UNTIL TAU 24
WHEN INCREASING VWS BEGINS TO WEAKEN IT MORE RAPIDLY. BY TAU 36, TC
12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF JGSM AND AFUM WHICH SUGGEST A MORE EASTWARD TRACK FROM
TAU 36 TO 72. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ITS PERSISTENT
LACK OF MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//

2018-03-08 22:01

WTPS52 PGTW 082100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180308195703
2018030818 12P HOLA 010 01 200 03 SATL 030
T000 180S 1652E 095 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 160 SE QD
125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 189S 1657E 105 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 202S 1668E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 224S 1687E 085 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD
135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 252S 1704E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 210 SE QD
160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 310S 1722E 045 R034 175 NE QD 300 SE QD 185 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-08 22:01

WTPS52 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180308195703
2018030818 12P HOLA 010 01 200 03 SATL 030
T000 180S 1652E 095 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 189S 1657E 105 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 202S 1668E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 224S 1687E 085 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 252S 1704E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 310S 1722E 045 R034 175 NE QD 300 SE QD 185 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.9S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.2S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.4S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.2S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.0S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 165.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030800 172S1657E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030812 177S1653E 95
1218030818 180S1652E 95
1218030818 180S1652E 95
1218030818 180S1652E 95

2018-03-08 22:01

WTPS32 PGTW 082100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.9S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-08 22:01

WTPS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.9S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.2S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.4S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.2S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.0S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 165.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP, PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
081702Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE AND DVORAK FIXES FROM KNES AND PGTW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.0 AND T5.5 (90 TO 102 KTS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS). TC 12P HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATING AS
IT IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
THE INTENSITY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, REACHING A PEAK OF 105 KTS BY
TAU 12, BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH VWS AND
REDUCED OUTFLOW. TC 12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AT
TAU 48 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. MOST DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMO AND AFUM WHICH SUGGESTED A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 48 TO 72. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//

2018-03-08 16:01

WTPS52 PGTW 081500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180308141545
2018030812 12P HOLA 009 01 180 01 SATL 045
T000 177S 1654E 095 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD
105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 184S 1658E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD
115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 197S 1669E 110 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 145 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 217S 1688E 100 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD
135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 243S 1706E 085 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD
145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 307S 1724E 055 R050 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 320 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 367S 1767E 045 R034 215 NE QD 260 SE QD 090 SW QD 145 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

2018-03-08 16:01

WTPS52 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180308141545
2018030812 12P HOLA 009 01 180 01 SATL 045
T000 177S 1654E 095 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 184S 1658E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 197S 1669E 110 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 217S 1688E 100 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 243S 1706E 085 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 307S 1724E 055 R050 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 320 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 367S 1767E 045 R034 215 NE QD 260 SE QD 090 SW QD 145 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.4S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.7S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.7S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.7S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 36.7S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1656E 90
1218030800 172S1656E 90
1218030800 172S1656E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030806 176S1654E 100
1218030812 177S1654E 95
1218030812 177S1654E 95
1218030812 177S1654E 95

2018-03-08 16:01

WTPS32 PGTW 081500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.4S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-08 16:01

WTPS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.4S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.7S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.7S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.7S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 36.7S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12P WHICH NO LONGER HAS AN EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN A 081200Z HIMAWARI
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE A 080800Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 84 KNOTS AND BELOW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, TC 12P IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO GUIDE TC 12P ON A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY FOR A SHORT PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24,
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 48, TC 12P WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN LESS AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS LEADING TO A WIDER SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//

2018-03-08 09:46

WTPS52 PGTW 080900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180308075119
2018030806 12P HOLA 008 01 205 04 SATL 030
T000 176S 1654E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD
095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 184S 1656E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD
105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 195S 1664E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 135 SE QD
125 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 214S 1682E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD
125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 238S 1703E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD
135 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 300S 1725E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 260 SE QD
170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 360S 1755E 045 R034 155 NE QD 205 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

2018-03-08 09:46

WTPS52 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180308075119
2018030806 12P HOLA 008 01 205 04 SATL 030
T000 176S 1654E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 184S 1656E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 195S 1664E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 135 SE QD 125 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 214S 1682E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 238S 1703E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 300S 1725E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 260 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 360S 1755E 045 R034 155 NE QD 205 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.4S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.8S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.0S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1656E 90
1218030800 172S1656E 90
1218030800 172S1656E 90
1218030806 176S1654E 95
1218030806 176S1654E 95
1218030806 176S1654E 95

2018-03-08 09:46

WTPS32 PGTW 080900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-08 09:46

WTPS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.4S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.8S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.0S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A SMALL EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 080600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE MOSTLY CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH DEEP
SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND IT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A 080230Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 94 KNOTS AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM
PHFO, KNES, NFFN, AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12P IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
TC 12P IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. IN THE SHORT TERM, TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 24
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 72, TC 12P WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND JGSM, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER,
BEYOND TAU 48 THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//

2018-03-08 04:01

WTPS52 PGTW 080300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180308021413
2018030800 12P HOLA 007 01 240 06 SATL 060
T000 172S 1656E 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD
095 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 180S 1654E 105 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 190S 1660E 120 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 135 SE QD
125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 207S 1675E 125 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD
135 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 229S 1695E 115 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD
145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 293S 1732E 065 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 255 SE QD
185 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 351S 1753E 045 R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD 100 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 165.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

2018-03-08 04:01

WTPS32 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 165.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 165.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-08 03:46

WTPS52 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180308021413
2018030800 12P HOLA 007 01 240 06 SATL 060
T000 172S 1656E 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 180S 1654E 105 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 190S 1660E 120 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 135 SE QD 125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 207S 1675E 125 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD 135 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 229S 1695E 115 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 293S 1732E 065 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 255 SE QD 185 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 351S 1753E 045 R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD 100 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 165.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 165.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.0S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.7S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.3S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.1S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030800 172S1656E 90
1218030800 172S1656E 90
1218030800 172S1656E 90

2018-03-08 03:46

WTPS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 165.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 165.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.0S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.7S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.3S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.1S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A PINHOLE EYE, SO THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE RAGGED OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS, INDICATING A PAUSE IN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.0 TO T5.5, JUSTIFYING AN
INTENSITY REMAINING AT 90 KNOTS. TC 12P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE SYSTEM AND TURNS IT SHARPLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 36, TC
12P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW
INCREASES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU
72, WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z,
082100Z, AND 090300Z.
//

2018-03-07 22:16

WTPS52 PGTW 072100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180307202955
2018030718 12P HOLA 006 01 240 06 SATL 015
T000 169S 1662E 090 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD
070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 175S 1658E 110 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD
065 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 183S 1660E 125 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD
095 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 195S 1669E 130 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 215S 1686E 115 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 145 SE QD
120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 268S 1724E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD
170 SW QD 145 NW QD
T096 335S 1753E 050 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 185 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 166.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

2018-03-07 22:16

WTPS52 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180307202955
2018030718 12P HOLA 006 01 240 06 SATL 015
T000 169S 1662E 090 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 175S 1658E 110 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD 065 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 183S 1660E 125 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD 095 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 195S 1669E 130 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 215S 1686E 115 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 145 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 268S 1724E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 145 NW QD
T096 335S 1753E 050 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 166.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 166.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.3S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.5S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.8S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.5S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 166.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030706 162S1672E 55
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030712 166S1667E 70
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90
1218030718 169S1662E 90

2018-03-07 22:01

WTPS32 PGTW 072100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 166.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 166.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-07 22:01

WTPS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 166.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 166.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.3S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.5S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.8S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.5S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 166.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 7-NM PINHOLE EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC 12P HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (FROM 45 TO 90 KNOTS)
WITH CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5
(102 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT THE LOWER END OF
THESE ESTIMATES AT 90 KNOTS. TC 12P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR EXTENSION WEAKENS FURTHER. AFTER TAU 24,
THE STR WILL RE-ORIENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, BASICALLY A HIGH AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC
STEERING PATTERN. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 TO 125 KNOTS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
130 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 36. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU
48 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//

2018-03-07 15:16

WTPS52 PGTW 071500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180307131819
2018030712 12P HOLA 005 01 225 06 SATL 010
T000 166S 1666E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 173S 1658E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 115 SE QD
085 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 180S 1657E 105 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 125 SE QD
105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 189S 1663E 115 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 135 SE QD
130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 203S 1675E 125 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD
135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 255S 1717E 095 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 185 SE QD
165 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 312S 1748E 060 R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
165 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 374S 1789E 045 R034 185 NE QD 185 SE QD 040 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 166.6E

2018-03-07 15:16

WTPS52 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180307131819
2018030712 12P HOLA 005 01 225 06 SATL 010
T000 166S 1666E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 173S 1658E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 180S 1657E 105 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 189S 1663E 115 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 203S 1675E 125 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 255S 1717E 095 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 185 SE QD 165 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 312S 1748E 060 R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 374S 1789E 045 R034 185 NE QD 185 SE QD 040 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.3S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.9S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.5S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 37.4S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 166.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z
AND 081500Z.//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 162S1670E 55
1218030706 162S1670E 55
1218030712 166S1666E 65
1218030712 166S1666E 65
1218030712 166S1666E 65

2018-03-07 15:16

WTPS32 PGTW 071500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.3S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-07 15:16

WTPS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.3S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.9S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.5S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 37.4S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 166.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM NORTHWEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED AND DEVELOPED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE AS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS SPIRALED TIGHTER INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE IR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 AND CONSISTENT
WITH A NEWLY-FORMED EYE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS WITH EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE
AT 30C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 12P HAS BEGUN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48 AFTER RECURVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEING ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL, IN
TURN, RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT
AROUND TAU 72 WITH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND THE
WIND FIELD EXPANDING. HOLA WILL BECOME A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH JGSM AND NVGM AS THE NOTABLE RIGHTMOST OUTLIERS IN THE NEAR AND
EXTENDED TERM, RESPECTIVELY. THERE ALSO REMAINS DISTINCT DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK SPEED ESPECIALLY DURING RECURVATURE AMONG THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET JGSM AND
NVGM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//

2018-03-07 09:46

WTPS52 PGTW 070900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180307070218
2018030706 12P HOLA 004 01 260 07 SATL 020
T000 161S 1669E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 166S 1659E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 135 SE QD
090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 174S 1655E 085 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD
110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 181S 1658E 105 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 192S 1668E 125 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD
155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 240S 1704E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 245 SE QD
170 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 309S 1748E 085 R064 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 275 SE QD
220 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 360S 1781E 050 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 105 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

2018-03-07 09:31

WTPS52 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180307070218
2018030706 12P HOLA 004 01 260 07 SATL 020
T000 161S 1669E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 166S 1659E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 135 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 174S 1655E 085 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 181S 1658E 105 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 192S 1668E 125 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD 155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 240S 1704E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 245 SE QD 170 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 309S 1748E 085 R064 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 275 SE QD 220 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 360S 1781E 050 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 105 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.6S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.2S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.0S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.9S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.0S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 166.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50
1218030706 161S1669E 55
1218030706 161S1669E 55

2018-03-07 09:31

WTPS32 PGTW 070900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.6S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-07 09:31

WTPS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.6S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.2S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.0S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.9S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.0S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 166.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHWEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING
INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DEFINED CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 070422Z LOW REFLECTIVITY COLOR-ENHANCED 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS WITH EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD
BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48 AFTER RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BEING ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT AROUND TAU 96 WITH CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING. HOLA WILL
BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AS THE NOTABLE RIGHTMOST
OUTLIER. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED ESPECIALLY
DURING RECURVATURE WHICH LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//

2018-03-07 04:16

WTPS52 PGTW 070300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180307023338
2018030700 12P HOLA 003 01 275 08 SATL 035
T000 160S 1676E 050 R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 164S 1665E 065 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 170S 1658E 085 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 080 SE QD
065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 178S 1658E 105 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD
080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 188S 1665E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 105 SE QD
120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 229S 1702E 115 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 125 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 300S 1744E 085 R064 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD
190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 353S 1776E 050 R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

2018-03-07 04:16

WTPS52 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180307023338
2018030700 12P HOLA 003 01 275 08 SATL 035
T000 160S 1676E 050 R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 164S 1665E 065 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 170S 1658E 085 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 178S 1658E 105 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 188S 1665E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 105 SE QD 120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 229S 1702E 115 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 125 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 300S 1744E 085 R064 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 353S 1776E 050 R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.4S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.0S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.8S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.0S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.3S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45
1218030700 160S1676E 50

2018-03-07 04:16

WTPS32 PGTW 070300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.4S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.0S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-03-07 04:16

WTPS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.4S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.0S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.8S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.0S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.3S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MASS OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING
INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
062136Z GPMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE HIGHER END
OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5
(45 TO 55 KNOTS) AND A 062145Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING SEVERAL
50 KNOT BARBS WITH ONE 55 KNOT BARB. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 062340Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE VWS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE
(LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
TAU 36, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW
ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT TAU 60 ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING JUST
ABOVE 125 KNOTS AFTER RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEING ENHANCED
BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS
DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC 12P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT AROUND TAU 96 WITH ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVING TRACK AND
THE TIMING OF THE TURN. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED WHICH LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//

2018-03-06 22:31

WTPS52 PGTW 062100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180306201343
2018030618 12P HOLA 002 01 245 05 SATL 045
T000 161S 1684E 045 R034 090 NE QD 045 SE QD 125 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 165S 1673E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 169S 1663E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 080 SE QD
065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 176S 1659E 095 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD
080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 186S 1664E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 105 SE QD
120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 220S 1693E 125 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 125 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 284S 1738E 085 R064 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD
190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 340S 1765E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

2018-03-06 22:31

WTPS52 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180306201343
2018030618 12P HOLA 002 01 245 05 SATL 045
T000 161S 1684E 045 R034 090 NE QD 045 SE QD 125 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 165S 1673E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 169S 1663E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 176S 1659E 095 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 186S 1664E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 105 SE QD 120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 220S 1693E 125 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 125 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 284S 1738E 085 R064 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 340S 1765E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.9S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.0S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.4S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 34.0S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 168.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM NORTH OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35
1218030618 161S1684E 45

2018-03-06 22:31

WTPS32 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.9S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-03-06 22:31

WTPS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.9S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.0S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.4S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 34.0S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 168.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM NORTH OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROADENING MASS OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 061502Z SSMIS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE.
THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT EIR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE HIGHER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY A 061417Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS AND A 061740Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE VWS ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED
SUBSTANTIALLY (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
CONTINUING TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT
IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 36, TC 12P IS
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT TAU 72
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS AFTER
IT MAKES THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS ENHANCED BY INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING
SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TC 12P WILL
BE REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS IT BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVING TRACK WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE
CURRENT LAND INTERACTION AND RECENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT LEND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//

2018-03-06 16:31

WTPS52 PGTW 061500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180306130223
2018030612 12P TWELVE 001 01 255 09 SATL 020
T000 159S 1689E 035 R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 165S 1676E 045 R034 115 NE QD 075 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 169S 1666E 060 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 075 SE QD 025 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 172S 1659E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 085 SE QD
045 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 180S 1657E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 105 SE QD
075 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 205S 1682E 100 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 120 SE QD
115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 270S 1725E 080 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD
175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 329S 1756E 055 R050 050 NE QD 165 SE QD 140 SW QD 105 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 255 SE QD 185 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

2018-03-06 16:31

WTPS52 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 180306130223
2018030612 12P TWELVE 001 01 255 09 SATL 020
T000 159S 1689E 035 R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 165S 1676E 045 R034 115 NE QD 075 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 169S 1666E 060 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 025 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 172S 1659E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 085 SE QD 045 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 180S 1657E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 205S 1682E 100 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 270S 1725E 080 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 329S 1756E 055 R050 050 NE QD 165 SE QD 140 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 255 SE QD 185 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 168.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.5S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.9S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.5S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.9S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
//
1218030406 155S1736E 25
1218030412 157S1733E 25
1218030418 160S1730E 30
1218030500 164S1726E 30
1218030506 158S1720E 30
1218030512 155S1715E 30
1218030518 155S1713E 30
1218030600 154S1707E 30
1218030606 157S1698E 30
1218030612 159S1689E 35

2018-03-06 16:31

WTPS32 PGTW 061500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051352ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 168.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.5S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.9S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-06 16:31

WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051352ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 168.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.5S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.9S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.5S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.9S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS THE CONVECTION REORIENTED
AND DEEPENED CLOSER TO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 061036Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LLC THAT INCLUDES 35-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS MITIGATED
BY ITS STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW.
A ROBUST WESTERLY OUTFLOW, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY,
IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THESE OVERALL POSITIVE
DYNAMICS ARE, HOWEVER, TEMPORARILY TEMPERED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY CAUSED BY A RECEDING MID-LATITUDE LOW. TC 12P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ZEALAND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72 AFTER IT
MAKES THE RECURVE POLEWARD, ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TC 12P WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVING
TRACK WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 051400).//