Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091256 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1 (EX-AVA) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 48.4 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER UP 400 NM FROM THE
CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
32.3 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 12 UTC:
39.2 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED BY BULLETIN FQIO20 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091216
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1 (EX-AVA) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 48.4 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER UP 400 NM FROM THE
CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
32.3 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 12 UTC:
39.2 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED BY BULLETIN FQIO20 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180109080640
2018010906 03S AVA 027 02 170 12 SATL 045
T000 282S 0474E 035 R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 300S 0493E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.2S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 47.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.0S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 47.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180109080640
2018010906 03S AVA 027 02 170 12 SATL 045
T000 282S 0474E 035 R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 300S 0493E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.2S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 47.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.0S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 47.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 14 FEET.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 221S 484E 35
0318010706 228S 488E 35
0318010712 234S 490E 35
0318010718 242S 490E 40
0318010800 247S 490E 40
0318010806 257S 492E 40
0318010812 268S 483E 40
0318010818 273S 468E 40
0318010821 269S 470E 40
0318010900 270S 472E 35
0318010906 282S 474E 35


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.2S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 47.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.0S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 47.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO
CYCLONIC MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND ONE ANOTHER, AND MINIMAL
REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TWO CIRCULATIONS


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.2S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 47.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.0S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 47.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO
CYCLONIC MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND ONE ANOTHER, AND MINIMAL
REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TWO CIRCULATIONS
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090322Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO SHOWING AN AMBIGUOUS LLCC WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION
PRIMARILY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ALL OTHER DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE BOTH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KTS), BUT BELOW A 090413Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KTS. A 090554Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN
EXPANSIVE 25 KT WIND FIELD, WITH SEVERAL 30 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 160
NM FROM THE CENTER POSITION, AT THE INBOARD EDGE OF THE PASS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLY COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD. TC 03S HAS TRACKED TO THE SOUTH, AND COMPLETED A
SMALL LOOP OVER ITS TRACK IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO THE
DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
BY TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S WILL INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED WINDS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 090607
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1 (EX-AVA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.6 S / 48.3 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP 400 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
30.7 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 06 UTC:
33.0 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180109015959
2018010900 03S AVA 026 02 123 04 SATL 025
T000 270S 0472E 035 R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 130 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 288S 0484E 035 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 313S 0512E 035 R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 349S 0564E 035
T048 394S 0626E 030
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 123 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180109015959
2018010900 03S AVA 026 02 123 04 SATL 025
T000 270S 0472E 035 R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 130 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 288S 0484E 035 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 313S 0512E 035 R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 349S 0564E 035
T048 394S 0626E 030
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 123 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.3S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 34.9S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.4S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 221S 484E 35
0318010706 228S 488E 35
0318010712 234S 490E 35
0318010718 242S 490E 40
0318010800 247S 490E 40
0318010806 257S 492E 40
0318010812 268S 483E 40
0318010818 273S 468E 40
0318010821 269S 470E 40
0318010900 270S 472E 35


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 123 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.3S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 123 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.3S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 34.9S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.4S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY AND A 082241Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE REMAINING
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LOCATED IN THE SOUTH EASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A
081838Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE THAT MISSED THE LLCC BUT CAPTURED AN
EXPANSIVE 30 TO 35 KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLY COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A WEAK BUT DEFINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TC 03S HAS LOOPED TO THE NORTH, AROUND ON ITS OWN TRACK
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36
AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090050

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.0 S / 47.2 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 670 SE: 520 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 11/01/2018 00 UTC: 41.0 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, SE
DISSIPANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LA STRUCTURE D'AVA A PEU EVOLUE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H:
L'ORGANISATION DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESTE TRES ASYMETRIQUE,
L'ESSENTIEL DE L'ACTIVITE ETANT ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE RESTE INCERTAINE MAIS LA
PASS SCATSAT DE 1720Z MONTRE DES VENTS A 30-35 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
EST.

AVA A EFFECTUEE UNE BOUCLE CETTE NUIT ET SE DEPLACE POUR L'INSTANT
LENTEMENT VERS L'EST. AUJOURD'HUI, LA DORSALE SE DA CALE VERS L'EST
ET SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, ARRIVANT PAR
LE SUD-OUEST, AVA VA GRADUELLEMENT SE DIRIGER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCA
LERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. LES MODELES SONT MAINTENANT EN BON ACCORD SUR
CE SCENARIO.

UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT MODERE A FORT DE SECTEUR OUEST EST
ENTRAIN DE SE METTRE EN PLACE TANDIS QUE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVIENT INSUFFISANT. AUJOURD'HUI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
INTERARGIR AVEC LE JET SUBTOPICAL ET COMMENCER SON PROCESSUS
D'EXTRAPOLISATION QUI DEVRAIT SE TERMINER MERCREDI. LA CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE DEVRAIT ENSUITE FUSIONNER AVEC LE FRONT FROID ASSOCIE
AU TALWEG DANS LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090050

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 47.2 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN
DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 670 SE: 520 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/11 00 UTC: 41.0 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AVA'S STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED BASICALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS: THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BUT SCATSAT PASS AT 1720Z SUGGEST BELIEVABLE 30-35 KT OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

AVA HAS MADE A LOOP OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EASTWARDS.
TODAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AVA SHOULD
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ARRIVING BY ITS SOUTH-WEST. MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS
SCENARIO.

A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD IS GRADUALLY
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECOME INSUFFICIENT.
TODAY, AVA SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAK,
AND SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AVA'S
EXTRATROPICALISATION PROCESS IS FORECASTED TO BE ACHIEVE BY
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THE CLOCLWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITHIN THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LAT TROUGH.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 090031
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 47.2 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
30.8 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 082100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180108194509
2018010818 03S AVA 025 02 250 14 SATL 040
T000 273S 0468E 040 R034 170 NE QD 215 SE QD 205 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 287S 0467E 040 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 310S 0490E 040 R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 337S 0525E 040 R034 210 NE QD 215 SE QD 205 SW QD 215 NW QD
T048 373S 0574E 035 R034 290 NE QD 210 SE QD 165 SW QD 290 NW QD
T072 462S 0697E 035 R034 490 NE QD 440 SE QD 285 SW QD 450 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180108194509
2018010818 03S AVA 025 02 250 14 SATL 040
T000 273S 0468E 040 R034 170 NE QD 215 SE QD 205 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 287S 0467E 040 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 310S 0490E 040 R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 337S 0525E 040 R034 210 NE QD 215 SE QD 205 SW QD 215 NW QD
T048 373S 0574E 035 R034 290 NE QD 210 SE QD 165 SW QD 290 NW QD
T072 462S 0697E 035 R034 490 NE QD 440 SE QD 285 SW QD 450 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 33.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.3S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 46.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 490 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 221S 484E 35
0318010706 228S 488E 35
0318010712 234S 490E 35
0318010718 242S 490E 40
0318010800 247S 490E 40
0318010806 257S 492E 40
0318010812 268S 483E 40
0318010818 273S 468E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 082100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 33.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.3S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 46.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 490 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTING THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS)
AND BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BEING OFFSET BY
COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER, THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 03S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRIOR TO TAU 12,
THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WTIH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTH THROUGH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WAS NOT PREDICTED IN THE
MODEL SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INACCURATE PREDICTION OF THE SYSTEMS
INITIAL DIRECTION THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081856

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 670 SE: 520 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 46.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/01/2018 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LA STRUCTURE D'AVA EST TRES ATYPIQUE POUR UNE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC
UNE CONFIGURATION DE BASSES COUCHES APPARAISSANT MAL DEFINIE SUR LES
DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES ET UNE ORGANISATION DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
TRES ASYMETRIQUE, L'ESSENTIEL DE L'ACTIVITE ETANT ASSEZ LOIN DU
CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. UN VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES EXPOSE
EST TOUTEFOIS ASSEZ EVIDENT SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MSG1 AU SUD DE
FORT-DAUPHIN. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST INCERTAINE MAIS IL EST
SUPPOSE QUE DU COUP DE VENT MINIMAL RESTE PRESENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
EST.

LA TRAJECTOIRE S'EST ORIENTEE A L'OUEST AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES, MAIS DEMAIN MATIN, LA DORSALE SE DA CALE VERS L'EST ET SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AVA DEVRAIT
GRADUELLEMENT SE DIRIGER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCA LERANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT. LES MODELES SONT MAINTENANT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE
SCENARIO.

UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT MODERE A FORT DE SECTEUR OUEST EST
ENTRAIN DE SE METTRE EN PLACE TANDIS QUE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVIENT INSUFFISANT. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
INTERARGIR AVEC LE JET SUBTOPICAL, CONSERVER UNE STRUCTURE DE
SECLUSION CHAUDE PUIS ACHEVER SON PROCESSUS D'EXTRAPOLISATION JEUDI
EN S'EVACUANT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081856

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 670 SE: 520 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 46.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AVA'S STRUCTURE REMAINS ATYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM WITH A POOR LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION SEEN ON LATEST MW IMAGERY ALONG WITH DISPLACED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THE LATEST MSG1 IMAGERY, AN EXPOSED VORTEX IS SEEN
SOUTH OF FORT-DAUPHIN. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT
GALES FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ASSUMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

THE TRACK HAS TURNED WESTWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT TOMOROW, THE
RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AVA SHOULD GRADUALLY CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.

A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD IS GRADUALLY
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECOME INSUFFICIENT.
FROM WEDNESDAY, AVA SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAK, AND SHOULD EVOLVE PROGRESSIVELY IN WARM CORE SECLUSION.
AVA EXTRATROPICALISATION PROCESS IS FORECASTED TO BE ACHIEVE FROM
THURSDAY EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 081841
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 081500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180108143054
2018010812 03S AVA 024 02 215 14 SATL 060
T000 268S 0483E 040 R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 283S 0481E 040 R034 180 NE QD 205 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 300S 0490E 040 R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 325S 0516E 040 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 356S 0560E 035 R034 210 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 245 NW QD
T072 419S 0671E 035 R034 295 NE QD 245 SE QD 205 SW QD 340 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180108143054
2018010812 03S AVA 024 02 215 14 SATL 060
T000 268S 0483E 040 R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 283S 0481E 040 R034 180 NE QD 205 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 300S 0490E 040 R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 325S 0516E 040 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 356S 0560E 035 R034 210 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 245 NW QD
T072 419S 0671E 035 R034 295 NE QD 245 SE QD 205 SW QD 340 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.5S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.6S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 41.9S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
340 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 221S 484E 35
0318010706 228S 488E 35
0318010712 234S 490E 35
0318010718 242S 490E 40
0318010800 247S 490E 40
0318010806 257S 492E 40
0318010812 268S 483E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 081500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.5S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.6S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 41.9S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
340 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 081222Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS
AND A KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES, WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 03S WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36 AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03S
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081220

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.8 S / 48.5 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SO: NO:
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: NO:



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 38.2 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 11/01/2018 00 UTC: 44.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/01/2018 12 UTC: 48.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.0- CI=2.5+
LA CONVECTION QUI A TENTE DE SE RE-ORGANISER EN FIN NUIT NE S'EST PAS
MAINTENUE AU COURS DE LA JOURNA E ET DEPUIS 0800Z LE CENTRE EST
EXPOSE. NA ANMOINS, LE COUP DE VENT RESTE PROBABLE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

AUJOURD'HUI AVA A ORIENTE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE DANS LE SUD-EST
DU SYSTEME. DEMAIN MATIN, LA DORSALE SE DA CALE VERS L'EST ET SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AVA VA SE DIRIGER
VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCA LERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. LES MODELES SONT
MAINTENANT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT MODERE A FORT DE
SECTEUR OUEST SE MET EN PLACE PROGRESSIVEMENT TANDIS QUE LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVIENT INSUFFISANT. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS INTERARGIR AVEC LE JET SUBTOPICAL, CONSERVER
UNE STRUCTURE DE SECLUSION CHAUDE PUIS ACHEVER SON PROCESSUS
D'EXTRAPOLISATION JEUDI EN S'EVACUANT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081220

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 48.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT
DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: NW:
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 38.2 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/11 00 UTC: 44.2 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 12 UTC: 48.4 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0- CI=2.5+
SIGNS OF RE-ORGANISATIONS OBSERVED THIS MORNING HAS NOT MAINTAINED
TODAY. THUS, SINCE 0800Z, THE CENTRE IS EXPOSED. NEVERTHELESS, GALE
WINDS OCCURS PROBABLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BY GRADIENT
EFFECT.

TODAY AVA MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN OF THE SYSTEM.
TOMOROW, THE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AVA SHOULD
CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH.
MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.

FROM TOMOROW, A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WESTERN WINDSHEAR SHOULD
AFFECT PROGRESSIVELY THE SYSTEM WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL BECOME
INSUFFICIENT. FROM WEDNESDAY, AVA SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAK, AND SHOULD EVOLVE PROGRESSIVELY IN WARM CORE
SECLUSION. AVA EXTRATROPICALISATION PROCESS IS FORECASTED TO BE
ACHIEVE FROM THURSDAY EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 081209
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 48.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN 200 NM RADIUS IN FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP
300 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 00 UTC:
27.5 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 12 UTC:
29.9 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180108082513
2018010806 03S AVA 023 02 175 07 SATL 060
T000 254S 0491E 040 R034 145 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 267S 0488E 045 R034 165 NE QD 220 SE QD 125 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 283S 0489E 040 R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 303S 0506E 040 R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 329S 0539E 035 R034 195 NE QD 150 SE QD 165 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 388S 0648E 035 R034 235 NE QD 250 SE QD 265 SW QD 300 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 49.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 49.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180108082513
2018010806 03S AVA 023 02 175 07 SATL 060
T000 254S 0491E 040 R034 145 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 267S 0488E 045 R034 165 NE QD 220 SE QD 125 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 283S 0489E 040 R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 303S 0506E 040 R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 329S 0539E 035 R034 195 NE QD 150 SE QD 165 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 388S 0648E 035 R034 235 NE QD 250 SE QD 265 SW QD 300 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 49.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 49.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.3S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.9S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.8S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 221S 484E 35
0318010706 228S 488E 35
0318010712 234S 490E 35
0318010718 242S 490E 40
0318010800 247S 490E 40
0318010806 254S 491E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 49.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 49.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 49.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 49.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.3S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.9S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.8S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 080426Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A 080614Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC AND A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 03S WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080639

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.3 S / 48.8 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SO: NO:
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: NO:



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 36.0 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 37.4 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
DEPUIS CETTE NUIT, LA CONVECTION A REPRIS ET SE MAINTIENT A PROXIMITE
DU CENTRE, LOCALISEE ESSENTIELLEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. LA
PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 0515Z MONTRE QUE LE COUP DE VENT EST DE
NOUVEAU PRESENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AVA POURSUIT SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD EN RALENTISSANT AUJOURD'HUI PUIS EN ACCA LA
RANT FRANCHEMENT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DEMAIN.
LES MODELES SONT MAINTENANT EN BONNE ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.

AVA SEMBLE DEBUTER UN NOUVEAU CYCLE DE REINTENSIFICATION. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNENTALES VONT RESTER BONNE PENDANT 24H AVEC UN
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE MAIS
AVEC UN CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE QUI COMMENCE A FAIBLIR
SERIEUSEMENT. A A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT DE
SECTEUR OUEST SE MET EN PLACE PROGRESSIVEMENT EN ALTITUDE TANDIS QUE
LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVIENDRA INSUFFISANT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ALORS INTERARGIR AVEC LE JET SUBTOPICAL, CONSERVER UNE STRUCTURE DE
SECLUSION CHAUDE MERCREDI PUIS ACHEVER SON PROCESSUS
D'EXTRAPOLISATION JEUDI EN S'EVACUANT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080639

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 48.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT
DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: NW:
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 36.0 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 37.4 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SINCE THIS NIGHT, DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-BUILT AND HAS MAINTAINED
NEAR THE CENTER, LOCATED ESSENTIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
0515Z PARTIAL ASCAT SHOWS AGAIN GALE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH, EX-AVA MOVES
SOUTHWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO SLOW DOWN TODAY BEFORE
RE-ACCELERATE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM TOMOROW. MODELS ARE
NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TRACK.

AVA SEEMS START A NEW CYCLE OF INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONNEMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GOOD LEVEL UPPER DIVERGENCE, A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BUT
WITH AN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (OHC)THAT STARTS TO BECOME WEAK.
FROM THURSDAY, A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WESTERN WINDSHEAR SHOULD
AFFECT THE SYSTEM WHILE OHC WILL BECOME TOO INSUFFICIENT. AVA SHOULD
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAK, EVOLVE
PROGRESSIVELY IN WARM SECLUSION AND CONCLUDE ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION
PROCESS FROM THURSDAY EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 080619
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 48.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN 200 NM RADIUS IN FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP
300 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 18 UTC:
27.3 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
29.5 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180108014600
2018010800 03S AVA 022 02 180 05 SATL 060
T000 247S 0490E 040 R034 085 NE QD 285 SE QD 205 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 260S 0487E 045 R034 165 NE QD 235 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 274S 0486E 040 R034 195 NE QD 205 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 293S 0491E 035 R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 313S 0511E 035 R034 215 NE QD 175 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 376S 0608E 035 R034 255 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW QD 290 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 24.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.0S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180108014600
2018010800 03S AVA 022 02 180 05 SATL 060
T000 247S 0490E 040 R034 085 NE QD 285 SE QD 205 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 260S 0487E 045 R034 165 NE QD 235 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 274S 0486E 040 R034 195 NE QD 205 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 293S 0491E 035 R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 313S 0511E 035 R034 215 NE QD 175 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 376S 0608E 035 R034 255 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW QD 290 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 24.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.0S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.4S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.3S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.6S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 48.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 221S 484E 35
0318010706 228S 488E 35
0318010712 234S 490E 35
0318010718 242S 490E 40
0318010800 247S 490E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 24.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.0S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.4S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 24.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.0S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.4S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.3S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.6S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 48.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 072352Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY-
DEFINED CENTER. DESPITE THE WEAK CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A 071859Z
ASCAT BULLSEYE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35
KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 35
TO 40 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 36. PROXIMITY TO
MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 36,
TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. TC 03S IS NOW FORECAST TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 080018
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1 (EX-AVA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 48.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

A BAND OF WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE 35KT IS ALSO LOCATED FAR FROM THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN 26S AND 28S.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 12 UTC:
26.1 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 00 UTC:
27.6 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 072100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.0S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 072100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180107193213
2018010718 03S AVA 021 02 165 06 SATL 060
T000 240S 0492E 040 R034 105 NE QD 210 SE QD 225 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 253S 0489E 045 R034 125 NE QD 240 SE QD 155 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 267S 0485E 050 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 115 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 282S 0485E 045 R034 155 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 299S 0501E 040 R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 336S 0559E 035 R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.0S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180107193213
2018010718 03S AVA 021 02 165 06 SATL 060
T000 240S 0492E 040 R034 105 NE QD 210 SE QD 225 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 253S 0489E 045 R034 125 NE QD 240 SE QD 155 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 267S 0485E 050 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 115 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 282S 0485E 045 R034 155 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 299S 0501E 040 R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 336S 0559E 035 R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.0S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.2S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.9S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 33.6S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 49.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 221S 484E 35
0318010706 228S 488E 35
0318010712 234S 490E 35
0318010718 240S 492E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.0S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.2S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.9S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 33.6S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 49.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071859Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 071859Z ASCAT
BULLS-EYE IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS, HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 1.0 (25 KNOTS), BASED ON
THE ASCAT DATA AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 03S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 36. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR
SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03S
WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. HOWEVER, TC 03S IS NOW FORECAST
TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071904

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 49.1 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 560 SO: NO:
34 KT NE: 220 SE: SO: NO:



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 32.0 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LES IMAGES SATELLITES SUGGERENT TOUJOURS QUE LA STRUCTURE D'AVA A
SERIEUSEMENT SOUFFERT DE SON LONG PASSAGE SUR TERRE ET NE MONTRENT
POUR LE MOMENT AUCUN SIGNES D'AMELIORATION. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 18Z
MONTRE UNE CIRULATION LEGEREMENT ALLONGA E AVEC DES VENTS QUI
N'ATTEIGNENT LE COUP DE VENT QUE LOCALEMENT LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-EST.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI L'ATTIRE AU
SUD, AVA A COMMENCE A REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INCERTITUDE DEVIENT TRES IMPORTANTE AVEC DEUX
PRINCIPAUX SCENARIOS ASSEZ EQUITABLEMENT REPRESENTES DANS LES
PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLE DISPONIBLES : SOIT LE SYSTEME EST BLOQUE PAR
L'ARRIVEE DE LA NOUVELLE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE AU SUD, SOIT IL EST
ASPIRE PAR LE FLUX D'OUEST DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LE PASSAGE PLUS A
L'EST DU SYSTEME IRVING POURRAIT EGALEMENT INFLUENCER AVA. LA
PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS RETIENT POUR LA SECONDE OPTION, PROPOSEE
PAR LA MAJORITE DES MODELES DETERMINISTES.

AVA DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS PLUTOT FAVORABLES DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES MAIS SA LONGUE TRAJECTOIRE SUR LES TERRES L'A
NETTEMENT AFFAIBLI ET DESORGANISE. IL EST DONC PEU PROBABLE QUE LE
SYSTEME REUSSISSE A SE REINTEISIFIER. DE PLUS, A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN
CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT DE SECTEUR OUEST SE MET EN PLACE EN
ALTITUDE TANDIS QUE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE COMMENCE A DIMINUER. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS ENTAMER UNE TRANSFORMATION EN DEPRESSION
BAROCLINE SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT DE
L'OUEST EN S'EVACUANT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071904

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 49.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE
DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 560 SW: NW:
34 KT NE: 220 SE: SW: NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 32.0 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SAT IMAGES STILL SUGGEST THAT AVA'S STRUCTURE HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY
AFFECTED BY ITS LONG PASSAGE OVER LAND AND STILL SHOW NO SIGN OF
IMPROVEMENT. 18Z ASCAT SWATH REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ONLY LOCALLY IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER.

STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH, AVA STARTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD. FROM TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT WITH TWO
MAIN SCENARIOS RATHER EQUALLY REPRESENTED IN THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE : EITHER THE SYSTEM IS BLOCKED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW
HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH OR TAKEN AWAY BY THE WESTERLIES. THE
ARRIVAL OF IRVING NEARBY MIGHT ALSO INFLUENCE AVA'S TRACK. THE RSMC
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SECOND OPTION, AS SUGGESTED BY A
MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS.

AVA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN RATHER CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IN THE
NEXT HOURS BUT ITS LONG TRACK ON MALAGASY LANDS HAS STRONGLY WEAKENED
THE SYSTEM. A NEW REINTENSIFICATION PHASE THUS SEEMS UNLIKELY. FROM
TUESDAY, A MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT AND
SHOULD AFFECT AVA AS THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL BEGINS TO DECREASE. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TRANSFORM INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST WHILE EVACUATING
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 071822
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 49.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS FAR FROM THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 175 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 06 UTC:
25.7 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 18 UTC:
27.1 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 071500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180107134500
2018010712 03S AVA 020 02 150 07 SATL 060
T000 234S 0492E 035 R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 245S 0492E 035 R034 175 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 257S 0487E 040 R034 175 NE QD 235 SE QD 165 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 267S 0487E 045 R034 180 NE QD 205 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 282S 0492E 040 R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 135 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 303S 0528E 035 R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 190 SW QD 205 NW QD
T096 326S 0602E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.5S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180107134500
2018010712 03S AVA 020 02 150 07 SATL 060
T000 234S 0492E 035 R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 245S 0492E 035 R034 175 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 257S 0487E 040 R034 175 NE QD 235 SE QD 165 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 267S 0487E 045 R034 180 NE QD 205 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 282S 0492E 040 R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 135 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 303S 0528E 035 R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 190 SW QD 205 NW QD
T096 326S 0602E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.5S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.3S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.6S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 221S 484E 35
0318010706 228S 488E 35
0318010712 234S 492E 35


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 071500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.5S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.5S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.3S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.6S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC
03S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 071200Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE RAGGED STRUCTURE OF TC 03S.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 070634Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS.
TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48.
TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU
36. BEGINNING AT TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. TC
03S WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48 WITH A VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071244

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 49.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 370 NO:
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: NO:



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/01/2018 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 08/01/2018 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2018 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 12/01/2018 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
DEPUIS SON RETOUR SUR MER, UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE MODEREE A REPRIS A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 0925Z MONTRENT
TOUJOURS LA PRESENCE D'UN COEUR DE BASSES COUCHES DEFINI. IL EST
POSSIBLE QUE LES VENTS MAXIMAUX PROCHES DU CENTRE SOIENT INFERIEURES
AU COUP DE VENT, LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE GRADIENT, LES DONNEES
COMPLEMENTAIRES DES PASSES ASCAT SUGGERENT TOUJOURS LA PRESENCE DE
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 34KT.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI L'ATTIRE AU
SUD, AVA A COMMENCE A REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INCERTITUDE DEVIENT TRES IMPORTANTE AVEC DEUX
PRINCIPAUX SCENARIOS : SOIT LE SYSTEME EST BLOQUE PAR L'ARRIVEE DE LA
NOUVELLE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE AU SUD, SOIT IL EST ASPIRE PAR LE
FLUX D'OUEST DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LE PASSAGE PLUS A L'EST DU
SYSTEME IRVING POURRAIT EGALEMENT INFLUENCER AVA. LA PREVISION
OFFICIELLE DU CMRS RETIENT POUR L'INSTANT, UNE TRAJECTOIRE
INTERMEDIAIRE BASEE SUR CERTAINES MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE
DU CEP.

AVA DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS PLUTOT FAVORABLES DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES MAIS SA LONGUE TRAJECTOIRE SUR LES TERRES L'A
NETTEMENT AFFAIBLI. SA REINTENSIFICATION NECESSITE UNE RECONSTRUCTION
D'UNE CIRCULATION PROFONDE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE
A FORT DE SECTEUR OUEST SE MET EN PLACE EN ALTITUDE TANDIS QUE LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DIMINUE NETTEMENT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
ENTAMER UNE TRANSFORMATION EN DEPRESSION BAROCLINE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT DE L'OUEST.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071244

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE
DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW:
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/08 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/08 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/11 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/12 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SINCE ITS COMEBACK OVER SEA, MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
NEAR THE CENTER. 0925Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE EXISTENCE A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL INNER CORE. MAXIMAL WINDS NEAR THE CENTER MAY BE
BELOW GALE FORCE BUT FAR FROM THE CENTER, ASCAT DATA STILL SUGGEST
THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ATTRACTING IT IN THE SOUTH, AVA
STARTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. FROM TUESDAY UNCERTAINTY BECOME VERY
IMPORTANT WITH TWO MAIN SCENARIOS : EITHER THE SYSTEM IS BLOCKED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH OR TAKEN AWAY
BY THE WESTERLIES. THE ARRIVAL OF IRVING MAY ALSO INFLUENCE AVA'S
TRACK. THE RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOW AN INTERMEDIATE SCENARIO
BASED ON SEVERAL ECMWF EPS MEMBERS.

AVA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE RATHER CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT HOURS
BUT ITS LONG TRACK ON MALAGASY LANDS HAS STRONGLY WEAKENED THE
SYSTEM. ITS REINTENSIFICATION PHASE NEEDS THE REBUILDING OF A DEEP
FLOW. FROM TUESDAY, A MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT AVA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TRANSFORM INTO A
BAROCLINIC LOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH COMING FROM THE
WEST.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 071221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 00 UTC:
24.7 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 12 UTC:
26.0 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180107090258
2018010706 03S AVA 019 02 135 08 SATL 060
T000 227S 0490E 035 R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 238S 0491E 035 R034 155 NE QD 250 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 249S 0490E 040 R034 155 NE QD 250 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 260S 0488E 045 R034 175 NE QD 220 SE QD 155 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 271S 0488E 040 R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 291S 0508E 035 R034 165 NE QD 175 SE QD 190 SW QD 175 NW QD
T096 299S 0563E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180107090258
2018010706 03S AVA 019 02 135 08 SATL 060
T000 227S 0490E 035 R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 238S 0491E 035 R034 155 NE QD 250 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 249S 0490E 040 R034 155 NE QD 250 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 260S 0488E 045 R034 175 NE QD 220 SE QD 155 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 271S 0488E 040 R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 291S 0508E 035 R034 165 NE QD 175 SE QD 190 SW QD 175 NW QD
T096 299S 0563E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.0S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.1S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.1S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.9S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 221S 484E 35
0318010706 227S 490E 35


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.0S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.1S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.1S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.9S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, WEAK CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 070600Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE RAGGED STRUCTURE OF TC 03S. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) RANGING FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). TC 03S WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. TC 03S WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC
03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS IT STEERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR
AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070705

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 48.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SO: 370 NO:
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: NO:



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/01/2018 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, AVA EST REVENU SUR MER. LES DONNEES
MICRO-ONDES WINDSAT DE 0247Z MONTRENT LA PRESENCE D'UN COEUR DE
BASSES COUCHES DEFINI, ALORS QUE LES PASSES ASCAT DE CE MATIN NE
MONTRENT PAS DE COUP DE VENT DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME. MAIS, UNE
BOUEE (3300535) A MESURE UNE PRESSION DE L'ORDRE DE 990HPA A 50KM DU
CENTRE, CE QUI CONFIRMERAIT LE STATUT DE TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE.
LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE GRADIENT, LES ANALYSES SUGGERENT TOUJOURS LA
PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE A L'EST ET D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES QUI L'ATTIRE AU SUD, AVA DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD AUJOURD'HUI. A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE :
SOIT LE SYSTEME EST BLOQUE PAR L'ARRIVEE DE LA NOUVELLE CELLULE
ANTICYCLONIQUE AU SUD, SOIT IL EST ASPIRE PAR LE FLUX D'OUEST DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. LE PASSAGE PLUS A L'EST DU SYSTEME IRVING
POURRAIT EGALEMENT INFLUENCER AVA. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS
RETIENT POUR L'INSTANT LE SCENARIO D'UN SYSTEME ASPIRE VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

AVA DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS PLUTOT FAVORABLES DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES MAIS SA LONGUE TRAJECTOIRE SUR LES TERRES L'A
NETTEMENT AFFAIBLI. SA REINTENSIFICATION NECESSITE UNE RECONSTRUCTION
D'UNE CIRCULATION PROFONDE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE
A FORT DE SECTEUR OUEST SE MET EN PLACE EN ALTITUDE TANDIS QUE LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DIMINUE NETTEMENT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
COMMENCER SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT FINAL EN ENTAMANT SA TRANSFORMATION EN
DEPRESSION BAROCLINE SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT DE L'OUEST.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070705

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 48.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT
DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW:
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/07 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, AVA CAME BACK OVER SEA. 0247Z WINDSAT
MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE EXISTENCE A DEFINED LOW LEVEL INNER CORE,
WHILE THIS MORNING ASCAT SWATH SHOW NO GALE FORCE WIND NEAR THE
CENTER. BUT A BUOY (3300535) MEASURED NEAR 990HPA AT 50 KM FROM THE
CENTER. THAT OBSERVATION SEEMS TO CONFIRM THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STATUS. FAR FROM THE CENTER, ANALYSIS STILL SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS

STEERED BY THE RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ATTRACTING
IT IN THE SOUTH, AVA SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY. FROM TUESDAY
UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING : EITHER THE SYSTEM IS BLOCKED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH OR TAKEN AWAY BY
THE WESTERLIES. THE ARRIVAL OF IRVING MAY ALSO INFLUENCE AVA'S TRACK.
THE RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS THE SCENARIO OF TAKEN AWAY BY THE
WESTERLIES.

AVA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT HOURS
BUT ITS LONG TRACK ON MALAGASY LANDS HAS STRONGLY WEAKENED THE
SYSTEM. ITS REINTENSIFICATION PHASE NEEDS THE REBUILDING OF A DEEP
FLOW. FROM TUESDAY, A MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT AVA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WHILE
TRANSFORMING INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 070648
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 48.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 18 UTC:
24.4 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 06 UTC:
25.3 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180107012733
2018010700 03S AVA 018 02 160 12 SATL 060
T000 224S 0485E 035 R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 234S 0488E 035 R034 170 NE QD 235 SE QD 150 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 246S 0488E 040 R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 258S 0485E 045 R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 155 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 267S 0484E 040 R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD 135 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 286S 0494E 035 R034 155 NE QD 155 SE QD 175 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 285S 0523E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 48.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 48.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180107012733
2018010700 03S AVA 018 02 160 12 SATL 060
T000 224S 0485E 035 R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 234S 0488E 035 R034 170 NE QD 235 SE QD 150 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 246S 0488E 040 R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 258S 0485E 045 R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 155 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 267S 0484E 040 R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD 135 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 286S 0494E 035 R034 155 NE QD 155 SE QD 175 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 285S 0523E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 48.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 48.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.6S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.8S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.6S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 28.5S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 213S 481E 40
0318010700 224S 485E 35


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 48.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 48.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.6S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 48.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 48.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.6S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.8S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.6S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 28.5S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC AVA IS NOW STRADDLING THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 070003Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
CONSEQUENTLY, TC 03S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12
AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER WATER. TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR
SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL
TURN SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER
COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. TC
03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD
MOVEMENT. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 WITH A VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 070019
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (EX-AVA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 47.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 12 UTC:
23.4 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 00 UTC:
24.9 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
OVERLAND DEPRESSION=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 062100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180106194048
2018010618 03S AVA 017 02 165 09 SATL 060
T000 212S 0481E 040 R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 220S 0484E 040 R034 125 NE QD 245 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 234S 0488E 040 R034 135 NE QD 250 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 246S 0485E 045 R034 125 NE QD 230 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 256S 0480E 050 R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 205 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 274S 0486E 040 R034 150 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 283S 0510E 035 R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 205 SW QD 195 NW QD
T120 278S 0526E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.0S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180106194048
2018010618 03S AVA 017 02 165 09 SATL 060
T000 212S 0481E 040 R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 220S 0484E 040 R034 125 NE QD 245 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 234S 0488E 040 R034 135 NE QD 250 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 246S 0485E 045 R034 125 NE QD 230 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 256S 0480E 050 R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 205 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 274S 0486E 040 R034 150 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 283S 0510E 035 R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 205 SW QD 195 NW QD
T120 278S 0526E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.0S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.6S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.6S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.4S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.3S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM WEST OF
ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010606 196S 479E 55
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010612 203S 478E 50
0318010618 212S 481E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.0S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.0S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.6S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.6S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.4S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.3S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM WEST OF
ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC AVA HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK OVER LAND BUT
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE COAST. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING RE-DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A 061825Z METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). CONSEQUENTLY, TC 03S IS FORECAST
TO RE-STRENGTHEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER. TC 03S
WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48.
PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S
SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS. TC 03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AFTER TAU 96 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR
AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 061813
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INLAND 1 (EX-AVA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 47.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM FROM THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE BETWEEN 15S AND 25S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 06 UTC:
22.6 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 18 UTC:
24.2 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
OVERLAND DEPRESSION=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 061500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180106144915
2018010612 03S AVA 016 02 210 09 SATL 060
T000 208S 0470E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 219S 0472E 045 R034 140 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 232S 0475E 045 R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 243S 0475E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 210 SE QD 145 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 253S 0470E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 195 SE QD 125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 274S 0469E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 160 SE QD 135 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 286S 0493E 045 R034 095 NE QD 155 SE QD 175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 284S 0520E 040 R034 085 NE QD 185 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 47.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180106144915
2018010612 03S AVA 016 02 210 09 SATL 060
T000 208S 0470E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 219S 0472E 045 R034 140 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 232S 0475E 045 R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 243S 0475E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 210 SE QD 145 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 253S 0470E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 195 SE QD 125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 274S 0469E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 160 SE QD 135 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 286S 0493E 045 R034 095 NE QD 155 SE QD 175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 284S 0520E 040 R034 085 NE QD 185 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 47.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 47.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.3S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.4S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.4S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 47.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM EAST OF
EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 200S 475E 55
0318010606 200S 475E 55
0318010612 208S 470E 50
0318010612 208S 470E 50


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 061500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 47.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 47.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 47.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 47.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.3S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.4S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.4S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 47.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM EAST
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 061200Z METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 24. TC 03S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY. TC 03S WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 TC 03S WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
TURN TC 03S EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z,
070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 061248 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (EX-AVA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 47.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM FROM THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE BETWEEN 15S AND 25S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 00 UTC:
21.9 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 12 UTC:
23.4 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
OVERLAND DEPRESSION=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 061221
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (AVA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 47.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM FROM THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE BETWEEN 15S AND 25S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 00 UTC:
21.9 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 12 UTC:
23.4 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
OVERLAND DEPRESSION=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180106073709
2018010606 03S AVA 015 02 220 12 SATL 060
T000 200S 0475E 055 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 212S 0474E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 180 SE QD 125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 225S 0477E 045 R034 140 NE QD 195 SE QD 175 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 237S 0477E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 195 SE QD 155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 249S 0473E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 195 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 270S 0473E 055 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 283S 0489E 045 R034 095 NE QD 125 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 292S 0520E 040 R034 085 NE QD 135 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 47.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180106073709
2018010606 03S AVA 015 02 220 12 SATL 060
T000 200S 0475E 055 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 212S 0474E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD 125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 225S 0477E 045 R034 140 NE QD 195 SE QD 175 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 237S 0477E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 195 SE QD 155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 249S 0473E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 195 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 270S 0473E 055 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 283S 0489E 045 R034 095 NE QD 125 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 292S 0520E 040 R034 085 NE QD 135 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 47.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 47.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.2S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.7S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010606 200S 475E 55
0318010606 200S 475E 55


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 47.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 47.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.2S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 47.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 47.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.2S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.7S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 060530Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH TAU 24. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL MOVE BACK OVER
WATER AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY. TC 03S WILL REACH AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 TC 03S
WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH
TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, IS GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND
070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060729

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/1/20172018
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 47.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 330 SO: NO:




7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 06/01/2018 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 07/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 07/01/2018 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LE SYSTEME S'EST BIEN ENFONCE DANS LES TERRES. LA CONVECTION S'EST
AFFAIBLIE MAIS LA STRUCTURE SE MAINTIENT POUR LE MOMENT AVEC UNE
CIRCULATION ENCORE SYMMETRIQUE ET UN CENTRE BIEN DEFINI. LA PASSE
SSMIS DE 0303Z CONFIRME QUE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE DU SYSTEME RESISTE
PLUTOT BIEN A SON PASSAGE SUR TERRE POUR LE MOMENT. LA ZONE
D'INFLUENCE D'AVA RESTE LARGE AVEC DES ORAGES FREQUENTS SUR LA
MAJEURE PARTIE DU TERRIROIRE MALGACHE AINSI QUE DES BANDES
PRECIPITANTES QUI CONCERNENT L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES AINSI QUE LES
MASCAREIGNES.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE A L'EST ET D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES QUI L'ATTIRE AU SUD, AVA DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT REDRESSER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST ET REVENIR SUR MER AVANT LA FIN DU
WEEK-END. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE MONTRE DEUX
SCENARIOS POSSIBLES : SOIT LE SYSTEME EST BLOQUE PAR L'ARRIVEE DE LA
NOUVELLE CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE AU SUD, SOIT IL EST ASPIRE PAR LE
FLUX D'OUEST DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. L'INCERTITUDE RESTE DONC ENCORE
IMPORTANTE MEME SI LES DERNIERS RESEAUX SEMBLENT PRIVILEGIER LA
SECONDE OPTION, QUI A ETE RETENUE POUR LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU
CMRS.

AU MOMENT DE SA SORTIE SUR MER, AVA DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
TRA S FAVORABLES, QUE CE SOIENT ATMOSPHERIQUES OU OCEANIQUES, POUR
UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS COURTE SUR LES
TERRES MALGACHES POURRAIT MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE PLUS IMPORTANTE DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT DE SECTEUR
OUEST SE MET EN PLACE EN ALTITUDE. DE PLUS, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
EST LIMITE AU SUD DE 25S. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060729

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/1/20172018
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 47.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 330 SW: NW:




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/06 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/01/07 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/07 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WELL INLAND OVER THE LAST HOURS. CONVECTION
WEAKENED BUT THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER WELL DEFINED WITH
A SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. SSMIS 0303Z MW
IMAGES CONFIRM THAT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE IS RESISTING WELL TO THIS
PASSAGE OVERLAND FOR NOW. THE AREA INFLUENCED BY AVA REMAINS LARGE
WITH FREQUENT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAIN PART OF MADAGASCAR AND
OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE COMOROS AND MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGOS.

STEERED BY THE RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ATTRACTING
IT IN THE SOUTH, AVA SHOULD SLIGHTLY RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD AND
COME BACK OVER SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK-END. FROM TUESDAY, THE
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SHOWS TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS : EITHER THE SYSTEM
IS BLOCKED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH
OR TAKEN AWAY BY THE WESTERLIES. THUS, THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
EVEN IF THE LAST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO FAVOUR THE SECOND OPTION, WHICH
HAS BEEN CHOSEN TO BE THE RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST.

WHEN EXITING OVER THE OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, WHETHER ATMOSPHERIC OR OCEANIC, FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION
PHASE. A SHORTEST TRACK ON MALAGASY LANDS MAY MAINTAIN MORE IMPORTANT
INTENSITY IN THE SYSTEM. FROM TUESDAY, A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR IS AFFECTING AVA WHILE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL BECOMES LIMITED
SOUTH OF 25S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 060709 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (AVA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 47.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 275 NM FROM THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE BETWEEN 12S AND 25S,
LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT SOUTH OF 20S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/06 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 06 UTC:
23.1 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
OVERLAND DEPRESSION=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 060636
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: 1 (AVA) 992 HPA
POSITION: 19.9 S / 47.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 275 NM FROM THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE BETWEEN 12S AND 25S,
LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT SOUTH OF 20S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 00 UTC:
21.3 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 12 UTC:
23.1 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
OVERLAND DEPRESSION=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180106014225
2018010600 03S AVA 014 02 225 08 SATL 040
T000 191S 0483E 060 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 202S 0481E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 240 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 215S 0482E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 245 SE QD 175 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 228S 0483E 050 R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 265 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 241S 0482E 055 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 270 SE QD 145 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 264S 0476E 060 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 205 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 279S 0490E 050 R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 175 SE QD 195 SW QD 165 NW QD
T120 287S 0513E 040 R034 085 NE QD 175 SE QD 225 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180106014225
2018010600 03S AVA 014 02 225 08 SATL 040
T000 191S 0483E 060 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 202S 0481E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 240 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 215S 0482E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 245 SE QD 175 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 228S 0483E 050 R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 265 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 241S 0482E 055 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 270 SE QD 145 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 264S 0476E 060 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 205 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 279S 0490E 050 R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD 195 SW QD 165 NW QD
T120 287S 0513E 040 R034 085 NE QD 175 SE QD 225 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.2S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.5S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.8S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.1S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.4S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.9S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 28.7S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM WEST OF
ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010518 185S 489E 65
0318010600 191S 483E 60
0318010600 191S 483E 60


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.2S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.2S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.5S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.8S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.1S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.4S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.9S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 28.7S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM WEST OF
ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY
DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS TC 03S TRACKS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, A 060014Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
CONSEQUENTLY, TC 03S IS FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS BACK OVER WATER. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 72. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. TC 03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TAU 120 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUIDANCE DOES HOWEVER
DIVERGE AFTER TAU 120 WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EQUATORWARD
MOTION AND TRACK SPEEDS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z
AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 060122 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (AVA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 48.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS NEAR THE
CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/06 AT 12 UTC:
20.3 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 060121 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (AVA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 48.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/06 AT 12 UTC:
20.3 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060021

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/1/20172018
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 48.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 330 SO: NO:




7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 06/01/2018 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 07/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 07/01/2018 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 08/01/2018 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/01/2018 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 11/01/2018 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
DEPUIS L'ATTERRISSAGE. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME SE DEPLACE GLOBALEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD, LONGEANT LA COTE EST MALGACHE. LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE SE MAINTIEN ENCORE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE, MAIS SURTOUT AU SEIN
DE LARGES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES QUI S'ETENDENT TRES LOIN DU CENTRE
AUSSI BIEN SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE QUE SUR L'OCEAN INDIEN
ENTRE MADA ET LES ILES SOEURS.
DE FORTES PLUIES ORAGEUSES SE PRODUISENT SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE DE LA
GRANDE ILE AU NORD DE 22S,ET REMONTENT EGALEMENT EN DIRECTION DE
L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES.



APRES SON ATTERRISSAGE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU LONGER LA COTE SUR TERRE
AVANT DE REVENIR SUR MER APRES 24 A 36 HEURES DE TRANSIT SUR TERRE.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU
SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVA, QUI POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT S'ORIENTER VERS
L'EST PUIS LE NORD-EST EN FIN DE PERIODE AVEC LA RECONSTRUCTION
D'UNE DORSALE DE NIVEAU MOYEN AU SUR DU CANAL PUIS AU SUD DE MADA.
MAIS LA CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION A LONGUE ECHEANCE EST MEDIOCRE.

AU MOMENT DE SA SORTIE SUR MER, AVA DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
TRA S FAVORABLES, QUE CE SOIENT ATMOSPHERIQUES OU OCEANIQUES, POUR
UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS COURTE SUR LES
TERRES MALGACHES POURRAIT MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE PLUS IMPORTANTE DU
SYSTEME.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060021

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/1/20172018
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 48.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 330 SW: NW:




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/06 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/01/07 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/07 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/08 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/08 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 47.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/11 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SINCE THE LANDFALL WHICH OCCURS, THE SYSTEM TRACKS GLOBALLY
SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE EASTERN COAST. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE
CENTER, BUT MAINLY INTO TWO LARGE PERIPHERAL BANDS EXTENDING FAR FROM
THE CENTER ONE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL, THE
OTHER BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND LA REUNION.
IMPORTANT THUNDERSTORM RAINFALLS STRIKE THE MAIN PART OF MALAGASY,
MAINLY NORTH OF 22S, BUT ALSO THREATEN THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.


AFTER ITS LANDING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LONG THE COAST BEFORE
COMING BACK TO SEA AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS . LATER, THE ARRIVAL OF A MID
LATITUDES TROUGH IN THE SOUTH SHOULD SLOW DOWN AVA, WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY MOVE EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARDS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE REBUILD SOUTH OF MALAGASY.
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST IS POOR.

WHEN EXITING OVER THE OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, WHETHER ATMOSPHERIC OR OCEANIC, FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION
PHASE. A SHORTEST TRACK ON MALAGASY LANDS MAY MAINTAIN MORE IMPORTANT
INTENSITY IN THE SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 060016
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INLAND 1 (AVA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 48.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTORS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/06 AT 12 UTC:
20.3 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 052100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180105195042
2018010518 03S AVA 013 01 225 06 SATL 060
T000 186S 0490E 065 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 105 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 197S 0485E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 175 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 209S 0485E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 225S 0486E 050 R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 205 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 238S 0485E 055 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
195 NE QD 275 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 254S 0479E 060 R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 266S 0474E 050 R050 105 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
245 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 185 NW QD
T120 282S 0477E 040 R034 285 NE QD 195 SE QD 215 SW QD 235 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180105195042
2018010518 03S AVA 013 01 225 06 SATL 060
T000 186S 0490E 065 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 105 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 197S 0485E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 209S 0485E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 225S 0486E 050 R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 205 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 238S 0485E 055 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 275 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 254S 0479E 060 R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 266S 0474E 050 R050 105 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 245 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 185 NW QD
T120 282S 0477E 040 R034 285 NE QD 195 SE QD 215 SW QD 235 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.4S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 26.6S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.2S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 48.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010518 186S 490E 65
0318010518 186S 490E 65
0318010518 186S 490E 65


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 052100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.4S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 26.6S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.2S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 48.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 374 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, THOUGH A CORE OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO
THE LOSS OF THE EYE FEATURE, AND IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTI-AGENCY FIX POSITIONS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH, DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER LAND, IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON THE
OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE KNAFF-ZEHR WIND-PRESSURE
RELATIONSHIP BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA IN THE REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A STRONG
POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 03S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP,
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC
03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND
REEMERGE OVER OPEN WATER AROUND TAU 24. BY TAU 72 THE SOUTHERN LOCUS
OF THE STR STRENGTHENS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD, PUSHING TC 03S TOWARD A
MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. BEYOND TAU 96, AN APPROACHING DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TC AVA
TO A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. AS TC 03S TRACKS OVER THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS
BEFORE REEMERGENCE OVER WATER. ONCE BACK OVER WATER, THE SYSTEM WILL
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATERS AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 72 TC 03S WILL ENTER A
REGION OF COOLER WATERS AND WHILE THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), LEADING TO A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ECMWF KEEPING THE
SYSTEM OVER LAND THROUGH TAU 120, WHILE JGSM IS THE EASTERNMOST
OUTLIER. BEYOND TAU 48, THE MODELS ARE SPLIT IN A BIFURCATION
SCENARIO. ECMWF, NAVGEM AND HWRF INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
PULLED POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LEADING
TO A WESTWARD TRACK OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE AVNO, EGRR, AND
COAMPS MODELS INDICATE A TRACK SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE
JTWC TRACK LIES ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND
THEREAFTER IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND
062100Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051827

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/1/20172018
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 49.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 460 SO: NO:
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: NO:
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 06/01/2018 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 06/01/2018 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 07/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/01/2018 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
DEPUIS L'ATTERRISSAGE QUI A EU LIEU UN PEU AVANT 12UTC DANS LA
REGIONDE TOAMASINA, L'OEIL A PROGRESSIVEMENT DISPARU, AU SEIN D'UNE
CONVECTION PROFONDE EN FORME DE CDO QUI SE MAINTIEN. DE FORTES PLUIES
ORAGEUSES SE PRODUISENT SUR UNE GRANDE PARTIE DE LA GRANDE ILE AU
NORD DE 20S, ET DESCENDANT JUSQU'A 23S SUR LES REGIONS DE L'EST.



APRES SON ATTERRISSAGE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU LONGER LA COTE AVANT DE
REVENIR SUR MER APRES 24 HEURES DE TRANSIT SUR TERRE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD
DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVA, QUI POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT S'ORIENTER VERS
L'EST PUIS NE NORD-EST MAIS LA CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION A LONGUE
ECHEANCE EST MEDIOCRE.

AU MOMENT DE SA SORTIE SUR MER, AVA DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
TRA S FAVORABLES, QUE CE SOIENT ATMOSPHERIQUES OU OCEANIQUES, POUR
UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS COURTE SUR LES
TERRES MALGACHES POURRAIT MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE PLUS IMPORTANTE DU
SYSTEME.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051827

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/1/20172018
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 49.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 460 SW: NW:
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: NW:
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/06 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/01/06 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/07 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/07 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SINCE THE LANDFALL WHICH OCCURS, A LITTLE BEFORE 12UTC NEAR
TOAMASINA, THE EYE HAS PROGRESSIVELY DISAPPEARED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINING IN CDO PATTERN. IMPORTANT THUNDERSTORM RAINFALLS
STRIKE THE MAIN PART OF MALAGASY, MAINLY NORTH OF 20S, NORTH OF 23S
ON THE EASTERN REGIONS.

AFTER ITS LANDING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LONG THE COAST BEFORE
COMING BACK TO SEA AFTER 24 HOURS. LATER, THE ARRIVAL OF A MID
LATITUDES TROUGH IN THE SOUTH SHOULD SLOW DOWN AVA, WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY MOVE EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARDS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST IS POOR.

WHEN EXITING OVER THE OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, WHETHER ATMOSPHERIC OR OCEANIC, FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION
PHASE. A SHORTEST TRACK ON MALAGASY LANDS MAY MAINTAIN MORE IMPORTANT
INTENSITY IN THE SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 051820
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (AVA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 49.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
360NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR AND UP TO 860 NM IN TH BORTH-WESTERN
SECTOR
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/06 AT 06 UTC:
19.4 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/06 AT 18 UTC:
21.4 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 051500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180105134234
2018010512 03S AVA 012 01 240 06 SATL 025
T000 182S 0494E 090 R064 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD
145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 190S 0488E 070 R064 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 165 SE QD
075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 204S 0485E 065 R064 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 030 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 170 SE QD
100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 219S 0485E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 055 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD
150 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 235S 0485E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD
165 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 255S 0481E 065 R064 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 215 SE QD
150 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 272S 0479E 065 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 135 SE QD 050 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD
120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 289S 0491E 055 R050 065 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 49.4E


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180105134234
2018010512 03S AVA 012 01 240 06 SATL 025
T000 182S 0494E 090 R064 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 190S 0488E 070 R064 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 165 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 204S 0485E 065 R064 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 030 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 219S 0485E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 235S 0485E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 165 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 255S 0481E 065 R064 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 215 SE QD 150 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 272S 0479E 065 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 135 SE QD 050 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 289S 0491E 055 R050 065 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.0S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.4S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.5S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.2S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.9S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90
0318010512 182S 494E 90


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 051500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.0S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.0S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.4S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.5S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.2S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.9S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 10NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED AND
NOW OVER LAND NEAR TAMATAVE, MADAGASCAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS WHICH IS
BASED ON PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO
102 KNOTS) TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RECENT LAND INTERACTION. OBSERVATIONS
FROM NEARBY TAMATAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 83 KNOTS WHEN CORRECTED FOR ONE MINUTE AVERAGE, AND A
MINIMUM STATION PRESSURE OF 965 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DEVELOPED POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT
CONSTRAINED BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT DUE TO A WELL
ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH NOW REORIENTING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 03S. THE STR WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY EAST AND STEER TC 03S SOUTHWARD. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR REEMERGING OVER OPEN
WATER AROUND TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY TO 65 KNOTS, AND WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE THIS INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS TC 03S TRACKS
POLEWARD OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN. BEYOND TAU 72 TC 03S WILL ENTER A
REGION OF COOLER WATERS, BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 92 TC 03S WILL
BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN
DISSIPATING. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
FORECAST POSITION AND THE COASTLINE. BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK ESPECIALLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOWING A
POSSIBILITY OF THE SOUTHERN STR BUILDING BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT
TC 03S TRACK TO THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EASTWARD TURN MOST OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051231

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/1/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 49.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 170 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 06/01/2018 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 06/01/2018 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 07/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/01/2018 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/01/2018 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 08/01/2018 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL S'EST BIEN MAINTENU AVEC UNE
CONVECTION PROFONDE DEFINISSANT UN ANNEAU BIEN FERME. L'INTENSITE A
AINSI AUGMENTE PERMETTANT D'ATTEINDRE DES VENTS DE PRES DE 85KT JUSTE
AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, QUI A LIEU ACTUELLEMENT SUR TAMATAVE.
LES DERNIERES MESURES DE LA STATION PASSAIENT DES VENTS DE 65KTS LORS
DU PASSAGE DU MUR DE L'OEIL VERS 0930UTC ET UNE PRESSION DE 966.5HPA
VERS 1100UTC PEU AVANT LE PASSAGE DE L'OEIL.
AU MAXIMUM DU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, AVA EST UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX
ET ENTRAINE UNE NETTE DEGRADATION DU TEMPS DANS LES REGIONS PROCHES
DE SON ATTERRISSAGE AVEC DES PRECIPITATIONS IMPORTANTES JUSQU'A PLUS
DE 150KM DANS LES TERRES. UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1 A 2M EST
ATTENDUE NOTAMMENT DANS LES REGIONS AU SUD DU POINT D'IMPACT.

APRES SON ATTERRISSAGE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU LONGER LA COTE AVANT DE
REVENIR SUR MER APRES 24 HEURES DE TRANSIT SUR TERRE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD
DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVA, QUI POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT S'ORIENTER VERS
L'EST MAIS LA CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION A LONGUE ECHEANCE EST
MEDIOCRE.

AU MOMENT DE SA SORTIE SUR MER, AVA DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
TRA S FAVORABLES, QUE CE SOIENT ATMOSPHERIQUES OU OCEANIQUES, POUR
UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS COURTE SUR LES
TERRES MALGACHES POURRAIT MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE PLUS IMPORTANTE DU
SYSTEME.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/1/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 49.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/06 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/01/06 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/07 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/07 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/08 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/08 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION DEFINES A WELL CLOSED RING. THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO
REACH WINDS OF ABOUT 85 KT JUST BEFORE THE LANDFALL, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR TOAMASINA. THE LAST DATA OF TOAMASINA STATION WERE
65KTS OF WINDS WHEN THE EYEWALL WAS MOVED TO 0930UTC AND A PRESSURE
OF 966.5HPA TO 1100UTC JUST BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE EYE.
AT THE MAXIMUM STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE, AVA IS A THREATENING SYSTEM
GENERATING A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE CONDITIONS IN THE
LANDFALL REGION WITH IMPORTANT RAINFALL UP TO OVER 150KM IN THE LAND.
A CYCLONIC SURGE OF ABOUT 1 TO 2M IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

AFTER ITS LANDING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LONG THE COAST BEFORE
COMING BACK TO SEA AFTER 24 HOURS. LATER, THE ARRIVAL OF A MID
LATITUDES TROUGH IN THE SOUTH SHOULD SLOW DOWN AVA, WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY MOVE EASTWARD BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST IS
POOR.

WHEN EXITING OVER THE OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, WHETHER ATMOSPHERIC OR OCEANIC, FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION
PHASE. A SHORTEST TRACK ON MALAGASY LANDS MAY MAINTAIN MORE IMPORTANT
INTENSITY IN THE SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 051210
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (AVA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 49.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/06 AT 00 UTC:
19.2 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2018/01/06 AT 12 UTC:
20.8 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, INLAND

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
IN LANDFALL PERIOD=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180105074627
2018010506 03S AVA 011 01 225 08 SATL 020
T000 179S 0500E 095 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
145 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 187S 0493E 090 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD
110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 198S 0489E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 185 SE QD
095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 214S 0487E 080 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD
105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 228S 0486E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD
135 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 247S 0485E 080 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD
135 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 269S 0477E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD
110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 287S 0484E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 145 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180105074627
2018010506 03S AVA 011 01 225 08 SATL 020
T000 179S 0500E 095 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 187S 0493E 090 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 198S 0489E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 185 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 214S 0487E 080 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 228S 0486E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 247S 0485E 080 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 269S 0477E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 287S 0484E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 145 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.4S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.8S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.9S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 49.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010500 173S 506E 75
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95
0318010506 179S 500E 95


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.4S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.8S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.9S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 49.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING
OF DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE NEWLY FORMED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T 5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPED POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO
AN ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT
CONSTRAINED BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT DUE TO A WELL
ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH NOW REORIENTING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 03S. THE STR WAS PREVIOUSLY STEERING 03S ON
COURSE DUE WEST, BUT WITH THE RECENT SHIFT EASTWARD TC 03S IS NOW
TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STR
MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TC
03S TO A SOUTHWARD COURSE BY TAU 36. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY VERY
FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS BUT DROP RAPIDLY BELOW 25 DEGREES SOUTH.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN
MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAINING FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND
BEYOND TAU 12. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 03S SUSTAINED
AT AROUND 80 KNOTS FROM TAU 36 TO 72. BEYOND TAU 72 COOLER WATERS
WILL HELP FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST, BUT
SIMULTANEOUSLY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 92 TC 03S WILL BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITION AND THE
COASTLINE. BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 120 WITH
NAVGEM AND NOW ECMWF SHOWING THE SOUTHERN STR BUILDING BACK
SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT TC 03S' TRACK TO THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE
EASTWARD TURN MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING. DUE TO THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180105020502
2018010500 03S AVA 010 01 280 05 SATL 060
T000 172S 0505E 075 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 145 SE QD
130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 177S 0497E 090 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD
110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 187S 0491E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 185 SE QD
095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 201S 0489E 070 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD
105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 217S 0490E 070 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD
135 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 237S 0490E 075 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD
135 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 261S 0480E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD
110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 286S 0490E 060 R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 145 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180105020502
2018010500 03S AVA 010 01 280 05 SATL 060
T000 172S 0505E 075 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 177S 0497E 090 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 187S 0491E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 185 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 201S 0489E 070 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 217S 0490E 070 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 237S 0490E 075 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 261S 0480E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 286S 0490E 060 R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 145 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.7S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.7S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.7S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.7S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.1S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.6S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 50.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010500 172S 505E 75
0318010500 172S 505E 75
0318010500 172S 505E 75


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.7S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.7S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.7S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.7S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.7S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.1S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.6S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 50.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 042256Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY, THE COLOR ENHANCEMENT OF THE SAME MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A CYAN COLORED RING CIRCLING THE LLCC INDICATING THAT
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET
BY LAND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 03S IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 12, TURNING TO THE SOUTH BY TAU 36, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND DOWN THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MAKING A BRIEF LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 12
AS A RESULT OF ON GOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 12,
PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY BEFORE BEGINNING A FINAL GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. AROUND
TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE WEAKENING TREND AS WELL AS START THE
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. AROUND TAU 120, A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK DIRECTION; HOWEVER HAS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD AS TO TRACK LOCATION FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z,
052100Z AND 060300Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050028

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/1/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 50.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 160 SO: 220 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 05/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 06/01/2018 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 06/01/2018 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 07/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 07/01/2018 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 08/01/2018 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE S'EST REPLACE DAVANTAGE
SOUS LA CONVECTION PROFONDE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX TRES FROIDS
(-90C). UN POINT CHAUD EST PAR AILLEURS APPARU SUR PLUSIEURS IMAGES
INFRAROUGE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (GMI 2256Z ET SSMI F15
2253Z) CONFIRMENT LA POURSUITE DE LA CONSOLIDATION DE LA CIRCULATION
INTERNE. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK, AVA A DONC ETE CLASSE
CYCLONE TROPICAL. LE CENTRE SE TROUVE MAINTENANT A MOINS DE 100KM DE
L'ILE SAINTE MARIE ET ENVIRON 120KM DE FOULPOINTE.

APRES UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS L'OUEST PAR UNE DORSALE TRES
MOBILE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR, AVA A REPRIS UNE COMPOSANTE SUD DANS SON
DEPLACEMENT. EN CONSEQUENCE, L'ATTERISAGE D'AVA DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU EN
FIN DE MATINEE, ENTRE TAMATAVE ET L'ILE SAINTE MARIE. EN TERME
D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A LA COTE, MAIS IL N'EST PAS PREVU ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

AVA EST UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX ET ENTRAINE UNE NETTE DEGRADATION DU
TEMPS DANS LES REGIONS PROCHES DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. UNE SURCOTE DE
L'ORDRE DE 1 A 2M EST ATTENDU NOTAMMENT DANS LES REGIONS AU SUD DU
POINT D'IMPACT.

AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU PLONGER PLUS LE SUD. UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE EXISTE TOUJOURS
SUR LA DUREE DU TRAJET SUR TERRE DU SYSTEME AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE
PARALLELE A LA COTE, ET DONC AUSSI SUR SON INTENSITE LORS DE LA
SORTIE SUR MER. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVA, QUI POURRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT S'ORIENTER VERS L'EST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST
BASEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS IFS/GFS.

AU MOMENT DE SA SORTIE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
TRA S FAVORABLES POUR UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION AVEC UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT
FAIBLE. LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
SOUSJACENT RESTE FAVORABLE AU NORD DE 25S ET SEULE LA PROXIMITE DE LA
GRANDE ILE SUR LA PERIODE, ET A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL MODERE D'OUEST POURRAIENT LIMITER SON INTENSITE. UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LONGUE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES LIMITERAIT CE RISQUE
DE RA -INTENSIFICATION.

LES BANDES ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME TOUCHENT LES
TERRES MALGACHES, ET SE MAINTIENNENT SUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050028

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/1/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 50.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 160 SW: 220 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/05 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/01/06 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/06 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/07 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/07 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/08 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CENTER MOVED MORE UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS (-90C). A WARM SPOT APPEARED
SEVERAL TIMES ON INFRARED DATA. LAST MICROWAVE DATA (GMI 2256Z AND
SSMI F15 2253Z) CONFIRMED THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE INNER CORE.
THEREFORE, IN AGREEMENT WITH LAST DVORAK ESTIMATES, AVA WAS UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. CENTER IS LOCATED LESS THAN 100KM AWAY
FROM SAINTE MARIE ISLAND AND AROUND 120KM OF FOULPOINTE.


AFTER A WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO A FAST RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, AVA
RESTART TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THUS, AVA LANDING IS EXPECTED TO
HAPPEN BY MIDDAY, BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND SAINTE MARIE ISLAND. IT MAY
KEEP ON DEEPENING UP TO THE COASTLINE BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.

AVA IS A THREATENING SYSTEM GENERATING A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF
THE CONDITIONS IN THE LANDFALL REGION. A CYCLONIC SURGE OF ABOUT 1 TO
2M IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

TODAY, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE FAST RIDGE, AVA IS LIKELY TO GO MORE
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS STILL A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE DURATION OF THE
INLAND PHASE WITH THE PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE TRACK AND SO ABOUT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT ITS COME BACK OVER SEAS. AT LONG
RANGE, A NEW POLAR TROUGH AT SOUTH MAY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND
TEMPORARILY STEER IT EASTWARD. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED
ON AN IFS/GFS CONSENSUS.

WHEN EXITING OVER THE OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE WITH A GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL UNDERNEATH REMAINS
CONDUCIVE NORTH OF 25S AND ONLY THE VICINITY OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE
PERIOD AND FROM TUESDAY A MODERATE WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT THE SYSTEM INTENSITY. A TRACK FOR LONGER OVER LAND WILL LIMIT
THE LIKELIHOOD OF REINTENSIFICATION.

THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
AFFECTING THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY LANDS AND KEEP GOING OVER THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 050016
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (AVA) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 50.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/05 AT 12 UTC:
17.9 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/06 AT 00 UTC:
19.2 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 042100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180104200907
2018010418 03S AVA 009 01 285 04 SATL 045
T000 173S 0510E 060 R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 176S 0501E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD
105 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 183S 0495E 060 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
195 NE QD 190 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 196S 0491E 055 R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
185 NE QD 195 SE QD 100 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 210S 0490E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 234S 0492E 065 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 220 SE QD
160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 252S 0484E 065 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD
135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 272S 0475E 060 R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 165 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 51.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180104200907
2018010418 03S AVA 009 01 285 04 SATL 045
T000 173S 0510E 060 R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 176S 0501E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 183S 0495E 060 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 196S 0491E 055 R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 195 SE QD 100 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 210S 0490E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 234S 0492E 065 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 252S 0484E 065 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 272S 0475E 060 R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 165 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 51.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 51.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.3S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.4S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.2S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 50.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010418 173S 510E 60
0318010418 173S 510E 60


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 042100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 51.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 51.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 51.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 51.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.3S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.4S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.2S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 50.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 041519Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTESITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BOTH A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 03S IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 24, THE
STR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC AVA TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, TRACKING DOWN THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
TAU 72 WHEN THE STR, NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WILL BUILD BACK
WESTWARD CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU
12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE WHERE MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS THROUGH TAU
96. AFTER TAU 96, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU
120, A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
24. AFTERWARD, SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SPEED
AND DIRECTION RELATED TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE MODIFICATIONS. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM AND JGSM WITH
SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST A SHARP TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO TAU 12 AND A
TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER FROM THE MADAGASCAR COAST. DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z,
051500Z AND 052100Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041836

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/1/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 50.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 05/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 05/01/2018 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 06/01/2018 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 06/01/2018 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 07/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 07/01/2018 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE AVEC DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX TRES FROIDS S'EST MAITENUE PRES DU CENTRE. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (WINDSAT 1431Z ET SSMIS F17 1519Z)
TEMOIGNENT D'UNE NETTE CONSOLIDATION DE LA CIRCULATION INTERNE ET
D'UNE CONTRACTION DU RAYON DE VENT MAXIMUM. EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK, L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE REHAUSSEE.

L'ARRIVA E D'UNE DORSALE TRES MOBILE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR A ORIENTE
LA TRAJECTOIRE D'AVA VERS L'OUEST CES DERNIERES HEURES. EN
CONSEQUENCE, L'ATTERISAGE D'AVA DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU DEMAIN MATIN, PLUS
AU NORD QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU, ENTRE TAMATAVE ET L'ILE SAINTE MARIE.
EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE SON
INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A LA COTE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DEVRAIT
DONC ETRE ATTEINT.

AVA EST UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX ET UNE NETTE DEGRADATION DU TEMPS EST A
ATTENDRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES DANS LES REGIONS PROCHES DE
SON ATTERRISSAGE. UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1.5 A 2M EST ATTENDU
NOTAMMENT DANS LES REGIONS AU SUD DU POINT D'IMPACT.

EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST ET
LE SYSTEME EST PREVU REPLONGER VERS LE SUD. UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE
EXISTE TOUJOURS SUR LA DUREE DU TRAJET SUR TERRE DU SYSTEME AVEC UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PARALLELE A LA COTE, ET DONC AUSSI SUR SON INTENSITE LORS
DE LA SORTIE SUR MER. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVA QUI POURRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT S'ORIENTER VERS L'EST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST
BASEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS IFS/GFS.

AU MOMENT DE SA SORTIE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
TRA S FAVORABLES POUR UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION AVEC UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE. LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUSJACENT RESTE FAVORABLE AU NORD DE
25S ET SEULE LA PROXIMITE DE LA GRANDE ILE SUR LA PERIODE, ET A
PARTIR DE MARDI, UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE D'OUEST POURRAIENT
LIMITER SON INTENSITE. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LONGUE SUR LES TERRES
MALGACHES LIMITERAIT CE RISQUE DE RA -INTENSIFICATION.

LES BANDES ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME TOUCHENT LES
TERRES MALGACHES, ET SE MAINTIENNENT SUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041836

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/1/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 50.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/05 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/05 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/06 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/06 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/07 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/07 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 47.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAINED NEAR
THE CENTER. LAST MICROWAVE DATA (WINDSAT 1431Z AND SSMIS F17 1519Z)
SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE INNER CORE AND A CONTRACTION OF THE RADIUS
OF MAXIMUM WINDS. THEREFORE, IN AGREEMENT WITH LAST DVORAK ESTIMATES,
ANALYSED INTENSITY WAS INCREASED.


DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST RIDGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR ALLOWED TO THE SYSTEM TO KEEP WESTWARD TRACK. THUS, AVA
LANDING IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN TOMORROW MORNING, NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND SAINTE MARIE ISLAND. IT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN UP TO THE COASTLINE AND SO REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS.

AVA IS A THREATENING SYSTEM AND A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE LANDFALL REGION. A CYCLONIC SURGE OF
ABOUT 1.5M TO 2M IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CENTER.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE FAST RIDGE, AVA IS LIKELY TO GO
SOUTH. THERE IS STILL A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE DURATION OF THE
INLAND PHASE WITH THE PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE TRACK AND SO ABOUT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT ITS COME BACK OVER SEAS. AT LONG
RANGE, A NEW POALR TROUGH AT SOUTH MAY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND
TEMPORARILY STEER IT EASTWARD. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED
ON AN IFS/GFS CONSENSUS.


WHEN EXITING OVER THE OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE WITH A GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A LOW VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL
UNDERNEATH REMAINS CONDUCIVE NORTH OF 25S AND ONLY THE VICINITY OF
MADAGASCAR DURING THE PERIOD AND FROM TUESDAY A MODERATE WESTERN
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD PREVENT THE SYSTEM INTENSITY. A TRACK FOR
LONGER OVER LAND WILL LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD OF REINTENSIFICATION.

THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
AFFECTING THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY LANDS AND KEEP GOING OVER THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 041814
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 04/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 50.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/05 AT 06 UTC:
17.7 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/05 AT 18 UTC:
18.5 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 041500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180104141556
2018010412 03S AVA 008 01 260 06 SATL 025
T000 174S 0514E 055 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 176S 0503E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD
120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 181S 0496E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 191S 0491E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD
080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 204S 0489E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 185 SE QD
090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 230S 0489E 065 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD
165 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 249S 0482E 065 R064 015 NE QD 045 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 095 SE QD 110 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD
120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 264S 0474E 060 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 135 SE QD 165 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180104141556
2018010412 03S AVA 008 01 260 06 SATL 025
T000 174S 0514E 055 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 176S 0503E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 181S 0496E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 191S 0491E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 204S 0489E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 185 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 230S 0489E 065 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 165 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 249S 0482E 065 R064 015 NE QD 045 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 110 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 264S 0474E 060 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 165 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.1S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.4S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.0S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.4S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 173S 520E 50
0318010412 174S 514E 55
0318010412 174S 514E 55


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 041500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.1S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.4S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.0S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.4S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS COVERED BY A FLARING CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN INFLOW NOTCH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 041142Z 89GHZ
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, FUELING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 24, BEING BLOCKED BY A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, AS THE STR MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TAKING IT DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
WESTERN HALF OF TC 03S AND MADAGASCAR WILL PREVENT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
SEPARATION FROM LAND AND BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AROUND 65 KNOTS
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TC 03S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TAU 120 HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT WILL ALSO BRING COLD
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNFAVORABLE
FOR SUSTAINING INTENSITIES OVER 60 KTS PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT LATER TAUS, THE STR WILL BUILD BACK WESTWARD, SHIFTING
THE TRACK SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE
PASSING TROUGH WILL REACH SUFFICIENTLY EQUATORWARD ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE BUILDING RIDGE MAKING THE EXTENDED TRACK BEYOND TAU 120
UNCERTAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARD, SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY
IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION RELATED TO THE COMPLEX TROUGH AND
SHIFTING RIDGE INTERACTION. NOTABLE MODEL OUTLIERS ARE THE NAVGEM
AND JGSM SOLUTIONS SHOWING A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD TURN
OCCURRING SOONER AND FURTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE EXERTING MORE INFLUENCE OVER STEERING. NAVGEM AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AT LATER TAUS EXHIBIT A DRAMATIC TURN TO THE WEST, OVERLAND
MADAGASCAR, DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING STR TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041229

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/1/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 51.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 05/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 06/01/2018 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 06/01/2018 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 07/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 07/01/2018 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/01/2018 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE TOUJOURS
ORGANISEE EN CDO S'EST REFROIDI CONFIRMANT QUE L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME SE POURSUIT.

AUJOURD'HUI, L'ARRIVA E D'UNE DORSALE TRES MOBILE AU SUD DE
MADAGASCAR VA PERMETTRE A AVA DE POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
L'OUEST A OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, UN ATTERRISSAGE
SUR LA CA TE MALGACHE A PROXIMITE DE TAMATAVE RESTE ENVISAGA POUR
VENDREDI A LA MI-JOURNEE.
UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1.5 A 2M EST ATTENDU DANS LA REGION DE
VATOMANDRY AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.


DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'EST ET
LE SYSTEME EST PREVU REPLONGER VERS LE SUD. UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA DUREE DU TRAJET SUR TERRE DU SYSTEME ET DONC SON INTENSITE
LORS DE LA SORTIE SUR MER PARTIR DE SAMEDI. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS CEP/GFS.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES A UNE
POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE AVEC UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. LE STADE MINIMAL DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL EST MAINTENANT ENVISAGE AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE.
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VA A TRE DETERMINANTE
POUR L'EVOLUTION DE L'INTENSITE.

AU MOMENT DE SA SORTIE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
TRA S FAVORABLES POUR UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION AVEC UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE. LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUSJACENT RESTE FAVORABLE ET SEUL LA
PROXIMITE DE LA GRANDE ILE SUR LA PERIODE, ET A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE D'OUEST POURRAIT LIMITER SON INTENSITE
AU SUD DE 25S. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LONGUE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES
LIMITERAIT CE RISQUE DE RA -INTENSIFICATION.

LES BANDES ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME TOUCHENT LES
TERRES MALGACHE A L'EST DE 47E, ET SE MAINTIENNENT SUR L'ARCHIPEL
DES MASCAREIGNES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041230

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/1/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 51.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/05 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/05 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/06 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/06 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/07 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/07 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/08 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CDO
STRUCTURE HAS BECOME COLDER, ATTESTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS GOING ON.

TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD ALLOW
TO THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ON ITS WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS TRACK,
A LANDFALL OVER THE MALAGASY COASTLINE, NEAR TAMATAVE REMAINS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AT MID-DAY. A CYCLONIC SURGE OF ABOUT 1.5M TO 2M IS
EXPECTED NEAR VATOMANDRY, SOUTH OF THE AREA OF LANDFALL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, AVA IS FORECASTED TO RE-CURVE
SOUTHWARD BEHING THE FAST RIDGE AND TOWARD A NEW MID-TOPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. A LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM OVER
LAND AND SO ABOUT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT ITS COME BACK OVER
SEAS ON SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CEP/GFS CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE LANDFALL WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT. MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IS NOW FORECAST AT THE
LANDFALL PERIOD. FROM SATURDAY, THE TRACK WILL BE DECISIVE FOR THE
FORECAST INTENSITY.
AT ITS EXIT OVER OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR A NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH A GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A LOW VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL
UNDERNEATH REMAIN FAVORABLE AND ONLY THE VICINITY OF MADAGASCAR
DURING THE PERIOD AND UP TO TUESDAY A MODERATE WESTERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR SHOULD PREVENT THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SOUTH OF 25S. A TRACK
FOR LONGER OVER LAND WILL LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD OF REINTENSIFICATION.

THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
AFFECTING THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY LANDS EAST TO 47E AND GOING ON
OVER THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 041218
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 04/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 51.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/05 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/05 AT 12 UTC:
18.3 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 040900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180104084350
2018010406 03S AVA 007 01 215 06 SATL 035
T000 178S 0521E 045 R034 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 181S 0511E 055 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 186S 0501E 065 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 190 SE QD
140 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 193S 0494E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD
125 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 203S 0491E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD
140 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 232S 0492E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD
190 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 251S 0487E 070 R064 015 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD
165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 270S 0476E 065 R064 025 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 040900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180104084350
2018010406 03S AVA 007 01 215 06 SATL 035
T000 178S 0521E 045 R034 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 181S 0511E 055 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 186S 0501E 065 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 193S 0494E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD 125 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 203S 0491E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD 140 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 232S 0492E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 251S 0487E 070 R064 015 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 270S 0476E 065 R064 025 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.1S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45
0318010406 178S 521E 45


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.1S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS COVERED
BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 040244Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW
AND KNES, WHILE FMEE IS FIXING AT T3.5 (55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, FUELING DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE
STR MOVES EASTWARD THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TAKING IT DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS
BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AROUND 70 KNOTS INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 03S. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TAU 120 HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT WILL ALSO BRING COLD
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNFAVORABLE
FOR SUSTAINING INTENSITIES OVER 64 KTS PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND EQUATORWARD ENOUGH TO CARRY
03S EASTWARD IS UNCERTAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARD, SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD
SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION RELATED TO THE COMPLEX
TROUGH AND SHIFTING RIDGE INTERACTION. NOTABLE MODEL OUTLIERS ARE
THE NAVGEM AND JGSM SOLUTIONS SHOWING A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWARD TURN OCCURRING SOONER AND FURTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXERTING MORE INFLUENCE OVER STEERING. DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND
050900Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040650 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 04/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 51.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
18.2 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/05 AT 06 UTC:
18.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040638

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/1/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 51.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/01/2018 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/01/2018 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 05/01/2018 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 06/01/2018 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 06/01/2018 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 07/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST
ORGANISER EN BANDE INCURVEE, PUIS DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES PRESENTE UNE
STRUCTURE EN CDO TRES FROID CONFIRMANT L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES VISIBLES TRADUISENT TOUJOURS LA
PRESENCE D'UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE D'EST-SUD-EST.


AUJOURD'HUI, L'ARRIVA E D'UNE DORSALE TRES MOBILE AU SUD DE
MADAGASCAR VA PERMETTRE A AVA DE POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA CA
TE MALGACHE A PROXIMITE DE TAMATAVE RESTE ENVISAGA POUR VENDREDI
MATIN. DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS
L'EST ET LE SYSTEME EST PREVU REPLONGER VERS LE SUD. UNE GRANDE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA CAPACITE DU PHENOMENE A RESSORTIR EN MER DEMEURE A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS CEP/GFS.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES A UNE
POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE AVEC UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. MAIS UNE CONTRAINTE
D'ALTITUDE FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR EST DEVRAIT PERDURER. LE STADE
MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST MAINTENANT ENVISAGE AU MOMENT DE
L'ATTERRISAGE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VA A TRE
DETERMINANTE POUR L'EVOLUTION DE L'INTENSITE. EN CAS DE RESSORTIE EN
MER PRECOCE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVERAIT DES CONDITIONS TRA S FAVORABLES
POUR UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE. SEULS LA DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
SOUS JACENT ET UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE DE NORD-OUEST POURRAIT
LIMITER SON INTENSITE AU SUD DE 25S. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LONGUE SUR
LES TERRES MALGACHES LIMITERAIT CE RISQUE DE RA -INTENSIFICATION.

LES BANDES ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME COMMENCENT A
TOUCHER LES COTES MALGACHES ET SE MAINTIENNENT SUR L'ARCHIPEL DES
MASCAREIGNES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040638

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/1/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 51.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/04 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/05 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/05 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/06 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/06 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/07 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO CURVED BAND
PATTERN, AND IN THE LAST HOURS THE SYSTEM SHOWS A COLD CDO STRUCTURE
ATTESTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LAST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS ALWAYS A WEAK EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT.

TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD ALLOW
TO THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ON ITS WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS TRACK,
A LANDFALL OVER THE MALAGASY COASTLINE, NEAR TAMATAVE REMAINS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, AVA IS
FORECASTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD BEHING THE FAST RIDGE AND TOWARD A
NEW MID-TOPOSPHERIC TROUGH. A LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE ABILITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO COME BACK OVER THE OCEAN FROM SATURDAY. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CEP/GFS CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE LANDFALL WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT. BUT A WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
FORECASTED TO MAINTAIN. MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IS NOW
FORECAST AT THE LANDFALL PERIOD. FROM SATURDAY, THE TRACK WILL BE
DECISIVE FOR THE FORECAST INTENSITY. IN CASE OF PREMATURE EXIT OVER
OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
A NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ONLY THE
DIMINUTION OF THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL UNDERNEATH AND A MODERATE
NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD PREVENT THE
SYSTEM INTENSITY. A TRACK FOR LONGER OVER LAND WILL LIMIT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF REINTENSIFICATION.

THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY COASTLINES AND GOING
ON OVER THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040619
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 04/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 51.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
18.2 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/05 AT 06 UTC:
18.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 040300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180104014945
2018010400 03S AVA 006 01 210 07 SATL 020
T000 173S 0525E 045 R034 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 177S 0515E 055 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 182S 0504E 065 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 215 SE QD
155 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 186S 0495E 070 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 205 SE QD
125 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 195S 0490E 065 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 215 SE QD
080 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 221S 0491E 065 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
120 NE QD 165 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 215 SE QD
160 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 243S 0489E 065 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 220 SE QD
185 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 262S 0473E 055 R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 180 SE QD 145 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180104014945
2018010400 03S AVA 006 01 210 07 SATL 020
T000 173S 0525E 045 R034 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 177S 0515E 055 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 182S 0504E 065 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 215 SE QD 155 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 186S 0495E 070 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 205 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 195S 0490E 065 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 215 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 221S 0491E 065 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 243S 0489E 065 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 220 SE QD 185 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 262S 0473E 055 R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD 145 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.5S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.1S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.2S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 52.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 167S 529E 40
0318010400 173S 525E 45


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 040300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.5S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.1S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.2S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 032309Z 37GHZ
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MUTLI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE STR MOVES EASTWARD
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TAKING IT DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AROUND 65 KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96.
AFTER TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH WIND FIELD AS IT TRANSITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS
BEING HWRF TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR, AND NAVGEM, WITH A SOLUTION HAS
THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFF SHORE. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040047

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 51.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 05/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 06/01/2018 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 06/01/2018 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 07/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/01/2018 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
FT=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION ONT
CONTINUE DE SE PRODUIRE PRES DU CENTRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES
INFRA-ROUGE MONTRENT QU'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SUD-EST RESTE PRESENTE. LA
PRESENTE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST COHERENTE AVEC L'ADT DU CIMSS.

AUJOURD'HUI, L'ARRIVA E D'UNE DORSALE TRES MOBILE AU SUD DE
MADAGASCAR VA PERMETTRE A AVA DE POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA CA
TE MALGACHE A PROXIMITE DE TAMATAVE RESTE ENVISAGA POUR VENDREDI
MATIN. DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS
L'EST ET LE SYSTEME EST PREVU REPLONGER VERS LE SUD. UNE GRANDE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA CAPACITE DU PHENOMENE A RESSORTIR EN MER DEMEURE A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS CEP/GFS.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES A UNE
POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE AVEC UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. MAIS UNE CONTRAINTE
D'ALTITUDE FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR EST DEVRAIT PERDURER. LE STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EST DONC TOUJOURS ENVISAGE AU MOMENT DE
L'ATTERRISAGE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VA A TRE
DETERMINANTE POUR L'EVOLUTION DE L'INTENSITE. EN CAS DE RESSORTIE EN
MER PRECOCE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVERAIT DES CONDITIONS TRA S FAVORABLES
POUR UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE. SEULS LA DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
SOUS JACENT ET UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE DE NORD-OUEST POURRAIT
LIMITER SON INTENSITE AU SUD DE 25S. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LONGUE SUR
LES TERRES MALGACHES LIMITERAIT CE RISQUE DE RA -INTENSIFICATION.

LES BANDES ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME COMMENCENT A
TOUCHER LES COTES MALGACHES AINSI QUE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040047

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 51.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/04 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/05 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/05 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/06 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/06 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/07 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/08 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 46.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE OCCURED NEAR THE
CENTER. BUT THE LAST INFRARED IMAGERIES SHOW A SOUTHEASTERN UPPER
LEVEL CONSTRAINT. THIS CURRENT ASSESSMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ADT
FROM CIMSS.

TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD ALLOW
TO THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ON ITS WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS TRACK,
A LANDFALL OVER THE MALAGASY COASTLINE, NEAR TAMATAVE REMAINS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, AVA IS
FORECASTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD BEHING THE FAST RIDGE AND TOWARD A
NEW MID-TOPOSPHERIC TROUGH. A LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE ABILITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO COME BACK OVER THE OCEAN FROM SATURDAY. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CEP/GFS CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE LANDFALL WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT. BUT A WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
FORECASTED TO MAINTAIN. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS STILL
FORECAST. FROM SATURDAY, THE TRACK WILL BE DECISIVE FOR THE FORECAST
INTENSITY. IN CASE OF PREMATURE EXIT OVER OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A NEW PHASE OF
INTENSIFICATION WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ONLY THE DIMINUTION OF THE
OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL UNDERNEATH AND A MODERATE NORTHWESTERN
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD PREVENT THE SYSTEM INTENSITY.
A TRACK FOR LONGER OVER LAND WILL LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
REINTENSIFICATION.

THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY COASTLINES AND ON THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040011
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 04/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 51.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/04 AT 12 UTC:
17.6 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/05 AT 00 UTC:
18.1 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 032100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180103194944
2018010318 03S AVA 005 01 170 06 SATL 035
T000 166S 0532E 040 R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 172S 0523E 050 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 130 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 176S 0512E 060 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 090 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 150 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 180S 0502E 065 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD
125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 189S 0494E 065 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 155 SE QD
135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 218S 0491E 055 R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
195 NE QD 245 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 247S 0493E 050 R050 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
165 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 274S 0481E 045 R034 125 NE QD 200 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 53.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180103194944
2018010318 03S AVA 005 01 170 06 SATL 035
T000 166S 0532E 040 R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 172S 0523E 050 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 176S 0512E 060 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 180S 0502E 065 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 189S 0494E 065 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 155 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 218S 0491E 055 R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 245 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 247S 0493E 050 R050 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 274S 0481E 045 R034 125 NE QD 200 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 53.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 53.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.2S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.6S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.9S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.7S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.4S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40
0318010318 166S 532E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 032100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 53.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 53.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.2S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.6S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 53.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 53.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.2S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.6S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.9S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.7S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.4S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE INFRARED
LOOP AND A 031748Z 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE MUTLI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND DOWN THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS
BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, LAND INTERACTION IN THE WESTERN-SEMI CIRCLE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 03S. AROUND TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION MAINTAINING AN EXPANSIVE TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE HWRF AND GFS WITH SOLUTIONS
THAT HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR, WHILE THE NAVGEM
SOLUTION HAS THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFF SHORE. DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031825

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 52.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 04/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 05/01/2018 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 05/01/2018 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 06/01/2018 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 06/01/2018 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/01/2018 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
FT=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CIRCULATION EST RESTA E
PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE. LA DERNIERE IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 37GHZ WINDSAT
MONTRE UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSE COUCHE BIEN AFFIRMA E AVEC UN CENTRE
BIEN DEFINI. DEPUIS 1400Z, L'IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE MONTRE DE NOUVELLES
POUSSA ES CONVECTIVES PRES DU CENTRE TANDIS QU'AVA ORIENTE
PROGRESSIVEMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST

CETTE NUIT, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST EN DIRECTION D'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE QUI CIRCULE AU SUD DE
MADAGASCAR. A L'ARRIA RE DE CE COL, ET A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, UNE
DORSALE TRES MOBILE VA SE RECONSTRUIRE ET ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
SYSTEME DAVANTAGE VERS L'OUEST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, UN
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA CA TE MALGACHE A PROXIMITE DE TAMATAVE RESTE
ENVISAGA POUR VENDREDI MATIN. DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LA
DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'EST ET LE SYSTEME EST PREVU REPLONGER VERS
LE SUD. UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CAPACITE DU PHENOMENE A
RESSORTIR EN MER DEMEURE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT REDEVENIR PLUTOT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION D'AVA DURANT LES PROCHAINES HEURES,
JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE. LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST PREVU FAIBLIR
TANDIS QUE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT
PERDURER. LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EST DONC TOUJOURS
ENVISAGE AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISAGE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VA A TRE DETERMINANTE POUR L'EVOLUTION DE SON
INTENSITE. EN CAS DE RESSORTIE EN MER PRECOCE, LE SYSTEME
RETROUVERAIT DES CONDITIONS TRA S FAVORABLES POUR UNE NOUVELLE
INTENSIFICATION AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE A L'AVANT
D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE.
SEULE LA DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS JACENT AU SUD DE 25S
POURRAIT LIMITER SON INTENSITE. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LONGUE SUR LES
TERRES MALGACHES LIMITERAIT CE RISQUE DE RA -INTENSIFICATION.

LES BANDES ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME COMMENCENT A
TOUCHER LES COTES MALGACHES AINSI QUE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031825

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 52.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/04 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/04 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/05 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/05 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/06 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/06 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/07 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED PARTIALLY
EXPOSED. THE LAST 37GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND A CENTRE WELL DEFINED. SINCE 1400Z, INFRARED IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN NEW CONVECTIVE BURTS NEAR THE CENTRE AS AVA MOVES
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTWESTWARDS.

THIS NIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK TOWARD A FLAT LOW CIRCULATING AT SOUTH. BEHING THIS FLAT, A
BUILDING FAST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ORIENTATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS. ON
THIS TRACK, A LANDFALL OVER THE MALAGASY COASTLINE, NEAR TAMATAVE
REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, AVA
IS FORECASTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD BEHING THE FAST RIDGE AND TOWARD
A NEW MID-TOPOSPHERIC TROUGH. A LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO COME BACK OVER THE OCEAN FROM SATURDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE LANDFALL. THE UPPER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO DECAY WHILE MOVING SOUTH, WITH STILL A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. SO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STATUS IS STILL FORECAST. FROM SATURDAY, THE TRACK WILL BE DECISIVE
FOR THE FORECAST INTENSITY. IN CASE OF PREMATURE EXIT OVER OCEAN, AVA
MAY ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A NEW PHASE
OF INTENSIFICATION WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ONLY THE DIMINUTION OF THE
OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL UNDERNEATH SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD PREVENT THE
SYSTEM INTENSITY. A TRACK FOR LONGER OVER LAND WILL LIMIT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF REINTENSIFICATION.

THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY COASTLINES AND ON THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031813
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 03/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 52.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
17.2 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
17.6 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 031500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180103144239
2018010312 03S AVA 004 01 160 06 SATL 050
T000 160S 0531E 040 R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 166S 0525E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 170S 0516E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 174S 0506E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD
120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 181S 0496E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 206S 0486E 045 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 235S 0485E 040 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 261S 0484E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180103144239
2018010312 03S AVA 004 01 160 06 SATL 050
T000 160S 0531E 040 R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 166S 0525E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 170S 0516E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 174S 0506E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 181S 0496E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 206S 0486E 045 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 235S 0485E 040 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 261S 0484E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.4S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.1S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40
0318010312 160S 531E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 031500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.4S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.1S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND IT. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A
031031Z 89 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 030614Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND WINDS OF
40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ALLOW FOR TC 03S TO TRACK MORE
WESTWARD SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THAT SAME STR WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. TC 03S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AFTER TAU
48, TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031234

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 53.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 04/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 05/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 06/01/2018 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 06/01/2018 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/01/2018 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 08/01/2018 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
FT=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE A RAPIDEMENT
EVOLUEE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UNE CIRCULATION INTERNE
APPARENTE. UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR SUD-EST EST ANALYSEE PAR LE
CIMSS AUTOUR DE 20KT. LES DONNEES COMPLEMENTAIRES DES PASSES ASCAT DE
CE MATIN, MONTRENT QUE LE COUP DE VENT N'EST PRINCIPALEMENT ATTEINT
QUE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST.


AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT
ORIENTE VERS LE SUD, EN LIAISON AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE
AU SUD. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON
ACCORD ET PREVOIENT LA REPRISE D'UN MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST AVEC
LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE MALGACHE
A PROXIMITE DE TAMATAVE EST DONC POSSIBLE, DURANT LA NUIT DE JEUDI A
VENDREDI. CEPENDANT L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU THALWEG VENDREDI DEVRAIT
FAVORISER A NOUVEAU LA DESCENTE D'AVA VERS LE SUD. LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT DONC RESSORTIR EN MER OU MEME NE PAS ATTERRIR. L'INCERTITUDE
EST DONC IMPORTANTE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT REDEVENIR PLUTOT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION D'AVA DURANT LES PROCHAINES HEURES,
JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE. LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST PREVU FAIBLIR
TANDIS QUE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT
PERDURER. LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EST DONC TOUJOURS
ENVISAGE. POUR LA SUITE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST ELLE AUSSI
INCERTAINE A CAUSE DES DIFFERENTES TRAJECTOIRES POSSIBLES. UNE
NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE ET LA DIMINUTION DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS JACENT AU SUD DE 25S DEVRAIENT LIMITER LE
RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION.

LES BANDES ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME COMMENCENT A
TOUCHER LES COTES MALGACHES AINSI QUE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031234

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 53.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/04 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/04 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/05 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/05 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/06 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/06 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/07 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/08 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN RAPIDLY EVOLVED TOWARDS A
SHEARED ASPECT WITH AN APPARENT INNER CORE. A SOUTH-EASTERLY UPPER
CONSTAINT IS ANALYSED BY CIMSS NEAR 20KT. COMPLEMENTARY DATA FROM
THIS MORNING ASCAT SWATH, SHOW THAT GALE FORCE WIND ARE MOSTLY
LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.


OVER THE LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVLY MOVED SOUTHWARDS,
SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF A FLAT LOW CIRCULATING AT SOUTH. FROM
TOMORROW, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK, WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.A
LANDFALL OVER THE MALAGASY COASTLINE, NEAR TAMATAVE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER
TROUGH ON FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT AVA SOUTHWARD. THE LOW MAY COME
BACK OVER THE OCEAN OR EVEN STAY ALL THE TIME OFFSHORE. UNCERTAINTY
IS THUS IMPORTANT FROM FRIDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE LANDFALL. THE UPPER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO DECAY WHILE MOVING SOUTH, WITH STILL A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. SO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STATUS IS STILL FORECAST. FOR THE LONG RANGE, INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ALSO UNCERTAIN TO THE DIFFERENT POSSIBLE TRACKS. A NEW INCREASE OF
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE DIMINUTION OF OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL
UNDERNEATH SOUTH OF 25S PREVENT SYSTEM FROM DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY COASTLINES AND ON THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031213
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 03/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 53.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/04 AT 00 UTC:
17.0 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/04 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 030900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180103084247
2018010306 03S AVA 003 01 125 04 SATL 040
T000 154S 0529E 040 R034 065 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 159S 0526E 050 R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 165S 0519E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 170S 0508E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD
120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 177S 0500E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 197S 0486E 040 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 225S 0480E 035 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 251S 0480E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180103084247
2018010306 03S AVA 003 01 125 04 SATL 040
T000 154S 0529E 040 R034 065 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 159S 0526E 050 R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 165S 0519E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 170S 0508E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 177S 0500E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 197S 0486E 040 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 225S 0480E 035 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 251S 0480E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.9S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.5S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.0S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.7S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.1S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35
0318010300 152S 526E 40
0318010306 154S 529E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.9S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.5S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.9S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.5S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.0S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.7S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.1S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND IT. THE POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 030614Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A
CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ALLOW FOR TC 03S TO TRACK MORE
WESTWARD SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THAT SAME STR WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TC
03S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36. LANDFALL
WILL OCCUR OVER MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC
03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030713

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/1/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 53.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 03/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 04/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 04/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 05/01/2018 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 06/01/2018 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/01/2018 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
FT=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST MAINTENUE PRES
DU CENTRE AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
(F16 0031Z ET WINDSAT 0217Z) CONFIRMENT UN GAIN D'ORGANISATION. LA
PASSE ASCAT DE 0517Z MONTRE LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU SYSTEME. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE
AVA PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR A 06Z.


AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A RALENTI ET S'EST
PROGRESSIVEMENT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD, PROBABLEMENT EN LIAISON AVEC LE
PASSAGE D'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR QUI AFFAIBLIT LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE AXEE SUR LE CENTRE DU BASSIN. A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD ET
PREVOIENT LA REPRISE D'UN MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. UN
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE MALGACHE A PROXIMITE NORD DE TAMATAVE EST
DONC PROBABLE, DURANT LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI. PAR LA SUITE, LE
COMPORTEMENT DU SYSTEME DEVIENT PLUS INCERTAIN ET DEPENDRA DE SON
AFFAIBLISEMENT EN ENTRANT SUR TERRE. LE MINIMUM POURRAIT RESSORTIR EN
POURSUIVANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD, EN LIEN AVEC LE
PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION D'AVA JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE. CEPENDANT UNE FAIBLE
CONTRAINTE D'EST-SUD-EST SEMBLE DEJA AFFECTEE LE SYSTEME ET DEVRAIT
LIMITER LE RYTHME D'INTENSIFICATION. LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE DEVRAIT ETRE ATTEINT. AU MOMENT DE SON EVENTUEL RETOUR SUR
MER, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE INCERTAINE. L'ARRIVEE D'UN
PUISSANT THALWEG D'ALTITUDE POLAIRE DEVRAIT EMPECHER TEMPORAIREMENT
UNE REINTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EN
HAUSSE.

LES BANDES ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME COMMENCENT A
TOUCHER LES COTES MALGACHES AINSI QUE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030713

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 53.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/03 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/04 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/04 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/05 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/05 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/06 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/07 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS. LAST MICROWAVE DATA (F16 0031Z AND WINDSAT 0217Z)
CONFIRM A GAIN IN ORGANISATION. 0517Z ASCAT SWATH SHOW THE EXISTENCE
OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THUS, THE SYSTEM WAS
NAMED AVA BY MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 06Z.

OVER THE LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM SLOWED DOWN AND ORIENTED TEMPORARILY
SOUTHWARDS, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF A FLAT LOW CIRCULATING SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING THE STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE AXED
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. FROM TOMORROW, THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK. A
LANDFALL OVER THE MALAGASY COASTLINE, NEAR NORTH OF TAMATAVE IS NOW
LIKELY DURING THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN, AVA BEHAVIOR IS
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON ITS WEAKENING WHILE MOVING INLAND. THE
LOW MAY COME BACK OVER THE OCEAN, MOVING SOUTHWARD, DUE A TROUGH
PASSING AT SOUTH.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE LANDFALL. AVA SEEMS TO BE UNDERGOING A WEAK
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR
THE FOLLOWING DAYS, THEREFORE LIMITATING THE INTENSIFICATION RATE.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS FORECAST TO BE REACH. DURING THE
WEEK-END, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT THE TIME OF ITS POSSIBLE
RETURN OVER SEA IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A POLAR UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, SO PREVENTING FROM A
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING.

THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY COASTLINES AND ON THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 030632 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 03/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 53.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 350 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/03 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
17.1 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 030623
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 03/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 53.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 350 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/03 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
17.1 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.8S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.4S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.8S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.4S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.9S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.7S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 022324Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE EVIDENCES IMPROVED
CORE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK,
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE AT 28C TO 29C. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, TC 03S IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). CONSEQUENTLY, THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD AND THE
STR RE-ORIENTS AND BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST, PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BUT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR
TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS RAPIDLY EVOLVING PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 120.
TC 03S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 BUT MAY REGENERATE AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW AFTER TAU 120 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 022100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180102193617
2018010218 03S THREE 001 01 270 07 SATL 060
T000 154S 0533E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 156S 0527E 040 R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 163S 0520E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 169S 0512E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 174S 0503E 065 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 115 SE QD
105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 189S 0485E 045 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 216S 0475E 035 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T120 242S 0472E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 180102193617
2018010218 03S THREE 001 01 270 07 SATL 060
T000 154S 0533E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 156S 0527E 040 R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 163S 0520E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 169S 0512E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 174S 0503E 065 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 189S 0485E 045 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 216S 0475E 035 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T120 242S 0472E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.9S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.4S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.6S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.2S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
0317122918 121S 662E 25
0317123000 121S 655E 25
0317123006 122S 648E 25
0317123012 124S 642E 25
0317123018 127S 637E 25
0317123100 130S 632E 25
0317123106 135S 626E 25
0317123112 138S 622E 25
0317123118 141S 616E 25
0318010100 143S 610E 25
0318010106 146S 600E 25
0318010112 149S 592E 25
0318010118 152S 579E 25
0318010200 153S 563E 25
0318010206 154S 550E 25
0318010212 154S 540E 30
0318010218 154S 533E 35


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 022100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020921ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020921ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.9S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.4S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.6S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.2S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 021809Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28C TO 29C. TC
03S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. THE STR IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 03S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
NORTHEAST MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BUT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
RAPIDLY EVOLVING PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD TRACK
OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 120. TC 03S WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 120 BUT MAY REGENERATE AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 120 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY
EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z
AND 032100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
020930).//