Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NATE-17
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.1N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2017 0 32.1N 87.9W 992 30
0000UTC 09.10.2017 12 35.9N 86.0W 999 17
1200UTC 09.10.2017 24 41.7N 79.8W 1003 23
0000UTC 10.10.2017 36 44.0N 72.4W 1006 31
1200UTC 10.10.2017 48 45.7N 65.0W 1005 29
0000UTC 11.10.2017 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.6N 39.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2017 0 30.6N 39.8W 1009 29
0000UTC 09.10.2017 12 30.9N 40.3W 1011 26
1200UTC 09.10.2017 24 31.4N 40.6W 1013 23
0000UTC 10.10.2017 36 31.5N 40.8W 1014 21
1200UTC 10.10.2017 48 31.1N 40.1W 1013 21
0000UTC 11.10.2017 60 30.1N 38.9W 1012 21
1200UTC 11.10.2017 72 29.1N 37.1W 1009 24
0000UTC 12.10.2017 84 28.3N 35.7W 1006 25
1200UTC 12.10.2017 96 28.6N 34.5W 1003 32
0000UTC 13.10.2017 108 29.3N 34.0W 1003 34
1200UTC 13.10.2017 120 30.1N 33.8W 1006 29
0000UTC 14.10.2017 132 30.7N 32.8W 1008 26
1200UTC 14.10.2017 144 31.1N 31.0W 1010 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081605


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.10.2017

HURRICANE NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 89.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2017 0 29.1N 89.2W 983 55
1200UTC 08.10.2017 12 32.1N 87.9W 987 31
0000UTC 09.10.2017 24 36.2N 85.5W 995 21
1200UTC 09.10.2017 36 41.4N 79.2W 1001 24
0000UTC 10.10.2017 48 44.3N 70.8W 1003 35
1200UTC 10.10.2017 60 46.7N 60.8W 1003 32
0000UTC 11.10.2017 72 47.3N 53.0W 998 29
1200UTC 11.10.2017 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.5N 39.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2017 0 31.5N 39.4W 1009 32
1200UTC 08.10.2017 12 30.8N 39.9W 1010 28
0000UTC 09.10.2017 24 31.0N 40.5W 1012 23
1200UTC 09.10.2017 36 31.4N 41.4W 1014 22
0000UTC 10.10.2017 48 31.6N 42.0W 1015 22
1200UTC 10.10.2017 60 31.1N 42.5W 1015 20
0000UTC 11.10.2017 72 30.0N 41.9W 1015 18
1200UTC 11.10.2017 84 28.8N 41.0W 1014 17
0000UTC 12.10.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080406


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 071605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.10.2017

HURRICANE NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2017 0 25.6N 87.9W 979 65
0000UTC 08.10.2017 12 28.8N 89.7W 979 58
1200UTC 08.10.2017 24 31.4N 88.1W 984 38
0000UTC 09.10.2017 36 35.2N 86.0W 995 22
1200UTC 09.10.2017 48 39.7N 79.9W 1002 22
0000UTC 10.10.2017 60 42.7N 72.9W 1005 35
1200UTC 10.10.2017 72 45.2N 64.8W 1007 30
0000UTC 11.10.2017 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.2N 39.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2017 0 32.2N 39.9W 1011 34
0000UTC 08.10.2017 12 31.5N 39.8W 1010 30
1200UTC 08.10.2017 24 30.6N 40.6W 1011 28
0000UTC 09.10.2017 36 30.5N 41.5W 1012 25
1200UTC 09.10.2017 48 30.9N 42.4W 1015 22
0000UTC 10.10.2017 60 31.5N 43.5W 1016 22
1200UTC 10.10.2017 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 8.7N 31.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.10.2017 60 8.7N 31.0W 1009 30
1200UTC 10.10.2017 72 9.1N 34.0W 1007 37
0000UTC 11.10.2017 84 10.2N 37.5W 1006 37
1200UTC 11.10.2017 96 10.3N 41.3W 1003 40
0000UTC 12.10.2017 108 10.5N 44.5W 998 50
1200UTC 12.10.2017 120 11.1N 47.3W 992 57
0000UTC 13.10.2017 132 12.0N 49.9W 986 65
1200UTC 13.10.2017 144 12.9N 52.5W 985 67


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071605


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 070407

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 85.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2017 0 21.4N 85.7W 988 54
1200UTC 07.10.2017 12 25.5N 87.7W 982 65
0000UTC 08.10.2017 24 28.9N 89.5W 981 54
1200UTC 08.10.2017 36 31.5N 88.2W 988 36
0000UTC 09.10.2017 48 35.5N 85.6W 996 22
1200UTC 09.10.2017 60 40.0N 79.6W 1003 23
0000UTC 10.10.2017 72 42.9N 71.9W 1005 34
1200UTC 10.10.2017 84 44.7N 65.1W 1006 30
0000UTC 11.10.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 33.1N 38.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2017 12 32.6N 39.7W 1014 32
0000UTC 08.10.2017 24 31.6N 39.2W 1012 28
1200UTC 08.10.2017 36 30.7N 39.8W 1012 27
0000UTC 09.10.2017 48 30.3N 41.0W 1013 24
1200UTC 09.10.2017 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 29.7N 153.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2017 24 29.7N 153.4W 1006 29
1200UTC 08.10.2017 36 29.5N 154.0W 1008 23
0000UTC 09.10.2017 48 31.2N 153.5W 1009 29
1200UTC 09.10.2017 60 32.0N 154.3W 1011 27
0000UTC 10.10.2017 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 9.4N 34.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2017 84 9.4N 34.5W 1009 32
0000UTC 11.10.2017 96 10.7N 38.0W 1009 32
1200UTC 11.10.2017 108 11.2N 42.0W 1007 32
0000UTC 12.10.2017 120 11.4N 45.4W 1006 32
1200UTC 12.10.2017 132 11.7N 48.7W 1005 35
0000UTC 13.10.2017 144 12.4N 51.6W 1005 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070407


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 061609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2017 0 17.8N 84.6W 995 40
0000UTC 07.10.2017 12 21.1N 85.8W 993 45
1200UTC 07.10.2017 24 25.4N 88.1W 987 51
0000UTC 08.10.2017 36 28.5N 89.6W 982 59
1200UTC 08.10.2017 48 31.2N 88.5W 979 38
0000UTC 09.10.2017 60 34.7N 86.0W 993 28
1200UTC 09.10.2017 72 38.5N 80.7W 1003 20
0000UTC 10.10.2017 84 40.6N 75.0W 1007 30
1200UTC 10.10.2017 96 42.5N 69.6W 1009 29
0000UTC 11.10.2017 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 32.4N 38.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2017 12 32.3N 38.2W 1015 26
1200UTC 07.10.2017 24 33.0N 39.1W 1013 31
0000UTC 08.10.2017 36 31.3N 41.1W 1012 28
1200UTC 08.10.2017 48 30.0N 41.2W 1012 28
0000UTC 09.10.2017 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061608


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2017 0 15.3N 83.5W 999 39
1200UTC 06.10.2017 12 18.5N 84.7W 993 40
0000UTC 07.10.2017 24 21.9N 86.5W 990 46
1200UTC 07.10.2017 36 25.6N 89.1W 983 56
0000UTC 08.10.2017 48 28.2N 90.0W 976 59
1200UTC 08.10.2017 60 30.8N 88.3W 971 52
0000UTC 09.10.2017 72 34.3N 85.0W 984 30
1200UTC 09.10.2017 84 37.7N 79.9W 996 24
0000UTC 10.10.2017 96 40.5N 73.8W 1001 39
1200UTC 10.10.2017 108 42.0N 69.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 11.10.2017 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 32.4N 38.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2017 24 32.2N 38.5W 1015 28
1200UTC 07.10.2017 36 33.0N 38.9W 1013 31
0000UTC 08.10.2017 48 32.3N 41.3W 1012 30
1200UTC 08.10.2017 60 30.2N 42.2W 1011 28
0000UTC 09.10.2017 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 31.1N 150.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2017 36 31.1N 150.0W 1005 34
0000UTC 08.10.2017 48 30.3N 153.4W 1007 27
1200UTC 08.10.2017 60 29.5N 154.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 09.10.2017 72 30.3N 154.0W 1011 20
1200UTC 09.10.2017 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060406


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 051605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.10.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 103.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2017 0 15.3N 103.6W 1006 23
0000UTC 06.10.2017 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 83.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2017 0 13.5N 83.4W 1000 31
0000UTC 06.10.2017 12 15.3N 84.0W 999 38
1200UTC 06.10.2017 24 18.4N 85.3W 991 44
0000UTC 07.10.2017 36 21.9N 87.4W 987 50
1200UTC 07.10.2017 48 25.2N 89.8W 985 57
0000UTC 08.10.2017 60 27.9N 90.3W 982 54
1200UTC 08.10.2017 72 30.7N 88.2W 982 51
0000UTC 09.10.2017 84 34.1N 85.6W 994 24
1200UTC 09.10.2017 96 37.3N 82.1W 1007 14
0000UTC 10.10.2017 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 31.8N 38.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2017 24 31.8N 38.0W 1017 27
0000UTC 07.10.2017 36 31.4N 39.1W 1015 27
1200UTC 07.10.2017 48 32.6N 39.0W 1014 29
0000UTC 08.10.2017 60 32.0N 40.7W 1012 29
1200UTC 08.10.2017 72 31.1N 42.7W 1011 30
0000UTC 09.10.2017 84 29.8N 44.8W 1012 26
1200UTC 09.10.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051605


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 050407

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.10.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 101.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2017 0 15.0N 101.6W 1004 26
1200UTC 05.10.2017 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 82.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2017 0 12.3N 82.9W 1005 25
1200UTC 05.10.2017 12 13.3N 82.7W 1002 29
0000UTC 06.10.2017 24 16.3N 83.3W 996 35
1200UTC 06.10.2017 36 19.5N 84.9W 988 47
0000UTC 07.10.2017 48 22.8N 87.1W 985 53
1200UTC 07.10.2017 60 26.3N 89.3W 984 57
0000UTC 08.10.2017 72 29.5N 89.8W 982 57
1200UTC 08.10.2017 84 31.9N 88.3W 992 23
0000UTC 09.10.2017 96 34.2N 85.1W 999 20
1200UTC 09.10.2017 108 36.1N 81.1W 1006 18
0000UTC 10.10.2017 120 37.5N 78.0W 1010 21
1200UTC 10.10.2017 132 38.8N 75.0W 1012 23
0000UTC 11.10.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 32.7N 40.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2017 72 32.7N 40.8W 1012 29
1200UTC 08.10.2017 84 32.4N 42.7W 1011 28
0000UTC 09.10.2017 96 31.3N 45.7W 1012 26
1200UTC 09.10.2017 108 30.8N 48.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 10.10.2017 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 29.2N 56.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2017 144 29.2N 56.6W 1008 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050407


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 081605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.1N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.10.2017 32.1N 87.9W MODERATE
00UTC 09.10.2017 35.9N 86.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2017 41.7N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2017 44.0N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2017 45.7N 65.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.6N 39.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.10.2017 30.6N 39.8W WEAK
00UTC 09.10.2017 30.9N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 31.4N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2017 31.5N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2017 31.1N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 30.1N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2017 29.1N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2017 28.3N 35.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2017 28.6N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2017 29.3N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2017 30.1N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2017 30.7N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2017 31.1N 31.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081605


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 080406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.10.2017

HURRICANE NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 89.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2017 29.1N 89.2W MODERATE
12UTC 08.10.2017 32.1N 87.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 36.2N 85.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2017 41.4N 79.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2017 44.3N 70.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2017 46.7N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 47.3N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.5N 39.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2017 31.5N 39.4W WEAK
12UTC 08.10.2017 30.8N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 31.0N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 31.4N 41.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2017 31.6N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2017 31.1N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 30.0N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2017 28.8N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080406


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.10.2017

HURRICANE NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2017 25.6N 87.9W STRONG
00UTC 08.10.2017 28.8N 89.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 31.4N 88.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2017 35.2N 86.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2017 39.7N 79.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2017 42.7N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2017 45.2N 64.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.2N 39.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2017 32.2N 39.9W WEAK
00UTC 08.10.2017 31.5N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 30.6N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 30.5N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 30.9N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2017 31.5N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 8.7N 31.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2017 8.7N 31.0W WEAK
12UTC 10.10.2017 9.1N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 10.2N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2017 10.3N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2017 10.5N 44.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2017 11.1N 47.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2017 12.0N 49.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2017 12.9N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071605


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070407

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 85.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2017 21.4N 85.7W MODERATE
12UTC 07.10.2017 25.5N 87.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2017 28.9N 89.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 31.5N 88.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2017 35.5N 85.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2017 40.0N 79.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2017 42.9N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2017 44.7N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 33.1N 38.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2017 32.6N 39.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.10.2017 31.6N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 30.7N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 30.3N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 29.7N 153.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2017 29.7N 153.4W WEAK
12UTC 08.10.2017 29.5N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 31.2N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 32.0N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 9.4N 34.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2017 9.4N 34.5W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2017 10.7N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2017 11.2N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2017 11.4N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2017 11.7N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2017 12.4N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070407


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 061608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2017 17.8N 84.6W MODERATE
00UTC 07.10.2017 21.1N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2017 25.4N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2017 28.5N 89.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2017 31.2N 88.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 34.7N 86.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.10.2017 38.5N 80.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2017 40.6N 75.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2017 42.5N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 32.4N 38.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2017 32.3N 38.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 07.10.2017 33.0N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2017 31.3N 41.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 30.0N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061608


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2017 15.3N 83.5W MODERATE
12UTC 06.10.2017 18.5N 84.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2017 21.9N 86.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2017 25.6N 89.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2017 28.2N 90.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2017 30.8N 88.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2017 34.3N 85.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.10.2017 37.7N 79.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2017 40.5N 73.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2017 42.0N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 32.4N 38.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2017 32.2N 38.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 07.10.2017 33.0N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2017 32.3N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 30.2N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 31.1N 150.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2017 31.1N 150.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.10.2017 30.3N 153.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 29.5N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 30.3N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060406


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 051605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.10.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 103.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2017 15.3N 103.6W WEAK
00UTC 06.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 83.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2017 13.5N 83.4W WEAK
00UTC 06.10.2017 15.3N 84.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2017 18.4N 85.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2017 21.9N 87.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2017 25.2N 89.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2017 27.9N 90.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 30.7N 88.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 34.1N 85.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2017 37.3N 82.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 31.8N 38.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2017 31.8N 38.0W WEAK
00UTC 07.10.2017 31.4N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2017 32.6N 39.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2017 32.0N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 31.1N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 29.8N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051605


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 050407

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.10.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 101.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2017 15.0N 101.6W WEAK
12UTC 05.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 82.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2017 12.3N 82.9W WEAK
12UTC 05.10.2017 13.3N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2017 16.3N 83.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2017 19.5N 84.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2017 22.8N 87.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2017 26.3N 89.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2017 29.5N 89.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 31.9N 88.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2017 34.2N 85.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2017 36.1N 81.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2017 37.5N 78.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2017 38.8N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 32.7N 40.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2017 32.7N 40.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.10.2017 32.4N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 31.3N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 30.8N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 29.2N 56.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2017 29.2N 56.6W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050407


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 080531
TCUAT1

Hurricane Nate Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...HURRICANE NATE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI...

National Weather Service radar data and surface observations
indicate that Hurricane Nate has made landfall near Biloxi,
Mississippi, around 1230 AM CDT with maximum winds of 85 mph (140
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1230 AM CDT...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 89.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Avila


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 070329
TCUAT1

Hurricane Nate Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1030 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE BECOMES A HURRICANE...

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just penetrated the
center of Nate and reported hurricane-force winds. The maximum
winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 86.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Avila


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 081450
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Nate Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

The center of Nate continues to move quickly north-northeastward
over central Alabama. Moderate westerly shear has caused most of
the deep convection and heavy rainfall to be displaced to the east
and northeast of the center, and surface observations show that
Nate has continued to rapidly weaken. Wind gusts to tropical-storm
strength are still occurring over portions of Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle, but there are no recent reports of sustained
tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, Nate is now a 30-kt
tropical depression. Nate is expected to become a remnant low on
Monday, and extratropical by Tuesday before it is absorbed by
frontal system. The intensity foreast keeps the wind speed around
30 kt during the next 48 hours, since winds are expected to increase
along the mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England coast on
Monday when the post-tropical low approaches that area.

Nate should continue to move quickly north-northeastward to
northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies during the
next 24 to 36 hours. The cyclone is forecast to turn
east-northeastward by Tuesday before it merges with the frontal
system.

This is the last NHC advisory on Nate. Heavy rainfall associated
with Nate is expected to spread over the Tennessee Valley, the
southern and central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley during the
next day or so. Future information on Nate system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
continue as long as Nate poses a flooding threat to the U.S.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

2. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected over portions of
the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia through this afternoon.

4. Persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated along
portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. See products
issues by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 33.1N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 080832
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

The eye of Hurricane Nate moved a few hours ago near or over the
Keesler Air Force base, which is the home of the AF Hurricane
Hunters. The winds became light and the pressure dropped to 986
mb when the eye passed nearby that location a little after 0500 UTC.
Since that time, Nate continued to move farther inland and surface
observations as well as Doppler radar data indicate that winds have
decreased. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 60
kt. Since the circulation is already inland, rapid weakening is
anticipated, and Nate is forecast to become a remnant low in about
36 hours as suggested by SHIPS decay model.

Radar fixes indicate that Nate is moving toward the north-northeast
at 20 kt. Nate is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude
westerlies, and this flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a
north-northeast to northeast track with increasing forward speed
for the next 2 days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is producing life-threatening storm surge flooding in areas
of onshore flow and a storm surge warning remains in effect from
Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.
Maximum flooding of 5 to 8 feet above ground level is expected
along the Mississippi coast within the next several hours.

2. Nate's fast forward speed over land will bring tropical storm
conditions well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S.

3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 31.5N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 34.1N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 38.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z 44.0N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 080252
TCDAT1

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

A ragged central dense overcast persists over Nate's center, but
radar trends have shown all of the deep convection migrating to the
north and northeast of the center, likely due to increasing
south-southwesterly shear. Still, the northern eyewall, which will
be moving onshore the Mississippi coast soon, remains quite
vigorous. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured
a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 89 kt and some SFMR values
around 70 kt. Although the SFMR could be affected by wave shoaling
in this case, the data as a whole appear to support an initial
intensity of 75 kt. Nate's central pressure has been rising
slowly, with the latest report from the plane being 984 mb.

Nate has turned northward and slowed down a bit with an initial
motion of 360/17 kt. On this course, the hurricane is expected to
make a second landfall along the Mississippi coast within the next
hour or two. After landfall, Nate should turn gradually toward the
northeast and accelerate again during the next day or two while it
moves between a large mid-level high off the southeastern U.S. coast
and a large trough digging into the central U.S. This steering
pattern will take Nate across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and
central Appalachian Mountains during the next couple of days. The
new NHC track forecast is unchanged from the previous one.

With landfall imminent, no changes in intensity are expected before
that time. After landfall, land and increasing shear should
contribute to fast weakening, and Nate is expected to become a
tropical storm in 6-12 hours and then weaken to a tropical
depression by 36 hours. Nate is likely to become a remnant low by
48 hours, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will be
absorbed by another low or cold front by 72 hours. That scenario
is now reflected in the NHC forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding
near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm
surge warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River
to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of
7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected along the Mississippi
coast within the next several hours.

2. Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore along the coasts of
Mississippi and Alabama, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
The strongest winds are expected to occur primarily to the east of
the track of the center.

3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring
tropical-storm-force winds well inland across portions of the
southeastern U.S. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect
for portions of southeastern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and
western Georgia.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 29.9N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 39.3N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 42.1N 73.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 072051
TCDAT1

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

Nate is sending mixed signals on its organization this afternoon.
On one side, the hurricane has a ragged central dense overcast with
a good complex of outer bands in the northeastern semicircle, and
there are hints of an eye trying to form. On the other side, the
cloud tops near the center have warmed significantly during the
past several hours, and there are signs that vertical shear is
starting to affect the storm. In addition, the eye only has
deep convection in the eastern semicircle in land-based radar
data. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicated that the central pressure was near 981 mb, with
flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of 80 kt. A
new aircraft is just starting its investigation of the hurricane.

Between the developing shear and the imminent landfall, Nate is
about out of time to strengthen. While not explicitly shown in the
intensity forecast, there could still be some intensification to
category 2 status in the next few hours. After landfall, Nate
should weaken rapidly as it moves through the eastern United
States. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by 48 h,
extratropical near the 72 hr point, and dissipate completely
by 96 h.

The initial motion is now 345/20. Nate is moving around the
western end of a low- to mid-level ridge over Florida and the
western Atlantic, and the cyclone is expected to enter the mid-
latitude westerlies during the next 12-24 h. This should cause
Nate to turn northward in the next several hours, then turn
northeastward after 12-24 h. The new forecast track is similar in
both direction and speed to the previous track and lies near the
center of a tightly clustered set of guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding
near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm
surge warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of 7 to 11
feet above ground level is expected in portions of southeastern
Louisiana and along the Mississippi coast.

2. Nate will bring hurricane conditions to portions of the northern
Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, where a hurricane warning is
in effect. The strongest winds are expected to occur primarily to
the east of the track of the center.

3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring
tropical-storm-force winds well inland across portions of the
southeastern U.S. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect
for portions of southeastern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and
western Georgia.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 28.4N 89.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 30.8N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 34.1N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 37.9N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1800Z 41.1N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 46.0N 63.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 071504 CCA
TCDAT1

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

Corrected 24 kt motion to 23 kt motion in third paragraph

Nate is showing improved organization in satellite imagery this
morning, with the formation of a symmetric central dense overcast
with cloud tops colder than -80C. In addition, Air Force Reserve
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a central pressure
near 984 mb inside a 25 n mi wide eye that is starting to form under
the overcast. The planes have reported 700-mb flight level winds of
up to 88 kt and surface wind estimates from the SFMR instrument
between 75-85 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to a possibly conservative 80 kt.

Conditions appear favorable for Nate to continue strengthening for
the next 12 h or so before it encounters land and increasing shear.
The new intensity forecast thus follows the SHIPS model in showing
Nate become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall on the central
Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken rapidly as it moves
through the eastern United States. The cyclone is now forecast to
become extratropical near the 72 hr point and dissipate completely
by 96 h.

The initial motion is toward the north-northwest at a very rapid 23
kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large
cyclonic gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic. In addition, a mid-latitude trough
in the westerlies is moving eastward through the central United
States. This pattern is expected to cause Nate to turn northward
during the next 12-18 h as it rounds the western end of the ridge,
followed by a turn toward the northeast as it enters the westerlies.
The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the
previous track, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered
guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding
near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm
surge warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of 7 to 11
feet above ground level is expected in portions of southeastern
Louisiana and along the Mississippi coast. Residents in these areas
should immediately heed any evacuation instructions given by local
officials.

2. Nate is forecast to reach Category 2 intensity before landfall.
A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, with the strongest winds expected
to occur primarily to the east of the center. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas, as tropical storm conditions will first arrive in the warning
area this afternoon.

3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring tropical-
storm-force winds well inland across portions of the southeastern
U.S. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions
of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and western Georgia.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 29.1N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 39.2N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 44.5N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 071455
TCDAT1

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

Nate is showing improved organization in satellite imagery this
morning, with the formation of a symmetric central dense overcast
with cloud tops colder than -80C. In addition, Air Force Reserve
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a central pressure
near 984 mb inside a 25 n mi wide eye that is starting to form under
the overcast. The planes have reported 700-mb flight level winds of
up to 88 kt and surface wind estimates from the SFMR instrument
between 75-85 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to a possibly conservative 80 kt.

Conditions appear favorable for Nate to continue strengthening for
the next 12 h or so before it encounters land and increasing shear.
The new intensity forecast thus follows the SHIPS model in showing
Nate become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall on the central
Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken rapidly as it moves
through the eastern United States. The cyclone is now forecast to
become extratropical near the 72 hr point and dissipate completely
by 96 h.

The initial motion is toward the north-northwest at a very rapid 24
kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large
cyclonic gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic. In addition, a mid-latitude trough
in the westerlies is moving eastward through the central United
States. This pattern is expected to cause Nate to turn northward
during the next 12-18 h as it rounds the western end of the ridge,
followed by a turn toward the northeast as it enters the westerlies.
The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the
previous track, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered
guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding
near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm
surge warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of 7 to 11
feet above ground level is expected in portions of southeastern
Louisiana and along the Mississippi coast. Residents in these areas
should immediately heed any evacuation instructions given by local
officials.

2. Nate is forecast to reach Category 2 intensity before landfall.
A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, with the strongest winds expected
to occur primarily to the east of the center. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas, as tropical storm conditions will first arrive in the warning
area this afternoon.

3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring tropical-
storm-force winds well inland across portions of the southeastern
U.S. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions
of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and western Georgia.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 29.1N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 39.2N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 44.5N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 070857
TCDAT1

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Nate a couple of
hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb
to the east of the center. No hurricane force winds were reported
west of the center. The SFMR winds from that mission yielded an
initial intensity of 70 kt. Since the plane left, the satellite
presentation has changed little, so the winds remains with the same
value in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane is currently
approaching Nate.

The outflow is well established suggesting that the shear is low,
while the atmospheric conditions favor some additional
strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some slight
increase in the winds, however, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Nate
to be a little bit stronger just before landfall. After landfall,
weakening is anticipated and Nate is forecast to dissipate in 96
hours or sooner.

Nate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest at about 19 kt.
The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large cyclonic
gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a developing mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic. This pattern should continue to
force Nate on a general north-northwest fast track for the next 24
hours. After that time, the hurricane will recurve northeastward
with additional increase in forward speed as it encounters the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has not changed much
from the previous one and is and is very close the HFIP corrected
consensus HCCA. This model has been very skillful this season.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect
from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in
Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation
instructions given by local officials.

2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas.

3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential
for flash flooding in these areas.

4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the
Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday,
which will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these
locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 24.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 27.3N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 30.4N 88.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 33.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 43.0N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 070255
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flights
indicate that Nate continues to strengthen and is near hurricane
strength. The NOAA plane measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level
wind of 75 kt, but the SFMR instruments on both planes have only
measured surface winds as high as 55 kt. It seems that the highest
winds haven't quite mixed down to the surface, but it's likely that
the system is at least producing surface winds of 60 kt, which will
be the initial intensity for this advisory. The NOAA flight also
reported that an eyewall is forming to the east of Nate's center.

Nate has been accelerating toward the north-northwest between a
large cyclonic gyre centered over southern Mexico and a mid-level
high located over the southwestern Atlantic, and the initial motion
estimate is 340/19 kt. This north-northwestward motion is expected
to continue for the next 24 hours, with Nate turning northward and
slowing down only slightly around the time it is forecast to cross
the northern Gulf coast between 24-36 hours. After landfall, the
cyclone is expected to get swept up ahead of a large mid-latitude
trough, and accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States. At least up until landfall, the track guidance is in good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is relatively unchanged from the
previous one. After landfall, the new forecast is just a tad slower
in order to give some credence to the slower solution provided by
the ECMWF model.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for Nate to
continue strengthening up until the time it makes landfall along
the northern Gulf coast. Nate is likely to become a hurricane
overnight, and the new NHC forecast has been raised to a peak
intensity of 75 kt at 24 hours based on guidance from the SHIPS and
LGEM models. The intensity consensus and HCCA are lower than that
due to the HWRF solution, which shows absolutely no strengthening
before landfall. Disregarding that solution, it seems prudent to
be above the consensus, close to the upper end of the guidance
envelope. Rapid intensification still cannot be ruled out since
the indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over
the next 24 hours. If Nate becomes a hurricane soon, then
additional increases in the official intensity forecast may be
necessary in subsequent advisories.

Aircraft data indicate that Nate is an asymmetric storm, with most
of the winds located on the eastern side of the circulation, and
this structure is likely to continue until landfall due to the
cyclone's fast forward speed. Therefore, locations to the east of
where Nate makes landfall are expected to receive significantly
stronger winds than locations to the west of the center. Regardless,
there is still too much uncertainty to know exactly where landfall
will occur, and all locations within the hurricane warning area
should be preparing for hurricane-force winds.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in
effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county
line in Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any
evacuation instructions given by local officials.

2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas.

3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the the potential
for flash flooding in these areas.

4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the
lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday,
which will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these
locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 22.3N 86.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 25.1N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 28.5N 88.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 31.4N 88.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 34.7N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/0000Z 40.5N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 44.5N 63.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 062101 CCA
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

CORRECTED MAX RAINFALL AMOUNT IN KEY MESSAGES

Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that convection
associated with Nate is becoming better organized, with a strong
convective band now wrapping about three-quarters of the way around
the center. Recent data from NOAA buoy 42056 near the center
suggest the central pressure has fallen to near 993 mb, and the
buoy just reported a 1-minute average wind of 49 kt. Based on
this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative
50 kt. The next aircraft investigating Nate is scheduled to arrive
near 22Z.

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/18 kt. Nate
remains between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the
western Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of
high pressure over the western Atlantic. This combination should
steer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 24 h or so.
After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes
around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the
mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance remains in good agreement
with the direction of motion, and it has come into better agreement
on the speed. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to, but
slightly to the west of the the previous track, and it calls for the
center of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula in about 6 h, followed by landfall on the northern
Gulf Coast around the 36-h point. It should be noted that the
ECMWF and GFS are both a little to the left of the current track.

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make
landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is
an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is still
a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses
the Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast
of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional
strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET
forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before
landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or
over the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours bringing
direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A
tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a
portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also
possible.

2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of
the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in effect
from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in
Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation
instructions given by local officials.

3. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the
eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this
weekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these
areas.

5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions
of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud
slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica,
Panama, and Belize through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 20.3N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.0N 87.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 26.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 29.9N 89.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 33.1N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 39.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1800Z 43.5N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 062055
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that convection
associated with Nate is becoming better organized, with a strong
convective band now wrapping about three-quarters of the way around
the center. Recent data from NOAA buoy 42056 near the center
suggest the central pressure has fallen to near 993 mb, and the
buoy just reported a 1-minute average wind of 49 kt. Based on
this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative
50 kt. The next aircraft investigating Nate is scheduled to arrive
near 22Z.

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/18 kt. Nate
remains between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the
western Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of
high pressure over the western Atlantic. This combination should
steer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 24 h or so.
After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes
around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the
mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance remains in good agreement
with the direction of motion, and it has come into better agreement
on the speed. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to, but
slightly to the west of the the previous track, and it calls for the
center of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula in about 6 h, followed by landfall on the northern
Gulf Coast around the 36-h point. It should be noted that the
ECMWF and GFS are both a little to the left of the current track.

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make
landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is
an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is still
a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses
the Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast
of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional
strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET
forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before
landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or
over the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours bringing
direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A
tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a
portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also
possible.

2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of
the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in effect
from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in
Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation
instructions given by local officials.

3. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 12 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the
eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this
weekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these
areas.

5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions
of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud
slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica,
Panama, and Belize through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 20.3N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.0N 87.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 26.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 29.9N 89.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 33.1N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 39.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1800Z 43.5N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 061456
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Nate lacks an inner wind core at the present time,
with the maximum winds located about 50 n mi from the center. The
central pressure is fluctuating near 996 mb, and the aircraft-
reported winds support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This is in
good agreement with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB. Satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Nate
has been increasing during the past several hours, and that the
storm has good outflow in the western semicircle.

The center has moved generally northward during the past 12 hr.
However, the latest recon fixes and satellite imagery suggest that a
north-northwestward motion is resuming at about 18 kt. Nate is
between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the western
Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of high
pressure over the western Atlantic. This combination should steer
the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 36 h or so.
After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes
around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the
mid-latitude westerlies. While the guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario, there has been a rightward shift to the latest
guidance, likely due to the recent northward motion. The new
forecast track is thus also shifted to the east of the previous
forecast, and it now calls for the center of Nate to pass near or
over the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 12 h,
followed by landfall on the northern Gulf Coast between 36-48 h.
The new track is in the center of the guidance envelope in good
agreement with the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening up to landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make landfall there as
a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is an update of the
previous one, lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
It should be noted that the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS
model continues to indicate an above normal chance of rapid
intensification. However, the current structure of the cyclone does
not favor rapid development.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula later today bringing direct impacts from wind,
storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a
hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and
life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.

2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of
the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning has been issued
from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border.
Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation instructions
given by local officials.

3. A hurricane warning has been has been issued for portions of the
northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 12 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the
eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this
weekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these
areas.

5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions
of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud
slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica,
Panama, and Belize through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 18.7N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 21.3N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.8N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 28.1N 89.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 31.1N 88.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 37.5N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 42.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 060251
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

Nate's center has been moving northwestward across eastern
Honduras, but it is just about to reach the waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Despite moving over land for the past
12-15 hours, the cyclone appears to have a relatively intact and
well-defined inner core. Deep convection has actually been
increasing over the center, and recent 85-GHz microwave data showed
at least some form of a convective ring. Given these signs, the
maximum winds are being held at 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Nate during the next
several hours to get a better handle on the storm's intensity and
structure.

Nate has been moving northwestward while crossing Nicaragua and
Honduras, and the initial motion estimate is 325/10 kt. The storm
is currently embedded within a broad Central American gyre, and it
should swing north-northwestward on the east side of this gyre
during the next 36 hours. After 36 hours, Nate should turn
northward and then northeastward along the western periphery of a
mid-tropospheric high centered off the southeastern U.S. coastline.
Compared to yesterday at this time, the track models have come into
much better agreement, and all the reliable models take Nate's
center across the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula in
24 hours and then across the U.S. central Gulf coast between 48 and
60 hours. Because of this tight clustering, there are no notable
cross-track changes in the NHC forecast. Speed-wise, however, the
updated official forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and
has caught up to the various consensus aids.

Due to low shear and very high oceanic heat content in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, Nate should at least steadily
strengthen once it moves offshore, especially since it appears to
have a well-defined inner core. Rapid intensification is still not
out of the question, and Nate could be near hurricane intensity by
the time it reaches the Yucatan coast in about 24 hours. Land
interaction with the Yucatan peninsula could cause a brief hiatus in
the strengthening trend, but conditions should be conducive for
additional intensification while Nate is over the Gulf of Mexico.
Overall, the intensity models have not changed much on this cycle,
and the NHC forecast still calls for a 48-hour intensity of 70 kt,
which is at the upper end of the guidance between HWRF and HCCA.
As mentioned before, Nate could strengthen further in the time
between the 48-hour position and when it crosses the U.S. Gulf
coast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
Belize through Friday night.

2. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind,
storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a
hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and
life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as
a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the
western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and tropical storm watches, as
well as a storm surge watch, have been issued for a portion of the
northern Gulf Coast, and residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Nate, heeding any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 15.8N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/1200Z 17.8N 85.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 07/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1200Z 24.3N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 08/0000Z 27.5N 90.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 33.7N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 40.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 43.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 060843
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

An Air Force plane fixed the center of Nate as it was moving back
over the waters of the Gulf of Honduras a few hours ago. The minimum
central pressure was estimated at 999 mb, and a combination of
flight-level and the SFMR winds yield an intensity of 40 kt. The
surface circulation is broad, and the strongest winds are within a
cyclonically curved band in the eastern semicircle. Radar from
Honduras also helped to track the center when the cyclone was over
Honduras. Nate is moving toward the very warm waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and within an environment of light shear.
On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening through
the next 48 hours, and Nate is expected to be a Category one
hurricane by the time it is close to the U.S. coast. The interaction
with the Yucatan peninsula, however, could halt the strengthening
temporarily in the 12 to 24 hour period. Once Nate moves inland
over the U.S., weakening is anticipated and the cyclone most likely
will dissipate by the end of the forecast period.

Nate is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 kt.
The cyclone is sandwiched between a large cyclonic gyre over
Central America and a developing subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. This flow pattern should steer Nate on the same
general north-northwest track with a marked increase in forward
speed for the next 2 days. After that time, Nate should be on the
northern edge of the subtropical high and become steered toward the
northeast by the mid-latitude westerly flow. The confidence in the
track forecast is high since most of the reliable guidance have come
to a very good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at least
for the next 2 to 3 days. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the
envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
Belize through tonight.

2. There is a possibility that Nate could be near hurricane
intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula later today
bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a
portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also
possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast late Saturday
or Sunday morning as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts
from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from
Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and
tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, are in
effect for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in
these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 19.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 22.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 26.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 29.3N 89.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 36.0N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0600Z 40.5N 74.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 052045
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

The center of Nate is now over eastern Honduras, and the cloud
pattern has lost some organization since the last advisory due to
passage over land. In addition, recent ASCAT overpasses suggest
that there are no tropical-storm-force winds outside of the coastal
waters of Nicaragua and Honduras. However, surface observations
indicate that the central pressure remains near 1000 mb, and based
on this the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 35 kt.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Nate as it emerges from the northern coast of Honduras
around 0300 UTC.

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that
Nate is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, which is more than suggested by the SHIPS model. The
large-scale models are in good agreement that this shear should
diminish during the next 12-24 h, leaving Nate in an favorable
environment for strengthening. One change in the models from the
previous advisory is that the GFS now shows more development as Nate
crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast shows little
change during the first 12 h due to the shear and land interaction,
then it calls for steady intensification though landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken as it
traverses the eastern United States. It should be noted that while
the forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is
expected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and
thus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt. It should also be noted
that SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index values remain quite high, and
any period of rapid intensification would lead to Nate being
stronger than currently forecast.

The initial motion is now 330/9. A combination of a large cyclonic
gyre over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward
across the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward
with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the north as the storm reaches the
western end of the ridge. The guidance is in decent agreement on
the direction of motion, but there remains disagreement on the speed
despite a continued trend toward a faster motion. The new forecast
track is similar to the direction of the previous track, but again
shows a faster forward speed that now has the center near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in 24-36 h and near the northern Gulf
Coast in 60-72 h. After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its
remnants are expected to recurve northeastward upon encountering the
mid-latitude westerlies.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
Belize through Friday night.

2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct
impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm
warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this
area and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as
a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the
Florida Panhandle. A hurricane watch and storm surge watch will
likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight or
Friday morning, and residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Nate and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.9N 84.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0600Z 16.5N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1800Z 19.2N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 22.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.6N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 38.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z 41.5N 72.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 051447
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

The cloud pattern associated with Tropical Depression Sixteen
increased in organization after the last advisory, with the
formation of a ragged central convective feature and outer banding
in the northeastern semicircle. In addition, data from the
Colombian radar at San Andres showed a partial eyewall, and surface
observations from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, included a pressure of
1001 mb outside of the center. Based on these data, the initial
intensity has been increased to 35 kt, and the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate.

The center of Nate is now inland over northeastern Nicaragua, and
little change in strength is expected until the center moves over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that, a combination of warm
sea surface temperatures and light shear should allow for at least
steady strengthening. However, the guidance is producing mixed
signals despite a favorable-looking environment. The Rapid
Intensification Index of the SHIPS model is showing high chances of
rapid intensification, with better than a 50 percent chance of 25
kt of strengthening in the next 24 h and nearly a 50 percent chance
of 65 kt of strengthening in 72 h. On the other side, the GFS and
Canadian models show only modest development and keep the cyclone
as a tropical storm until it reaches the northern Gulf coast.
Given the environment, the intensity forecast leans towards the high
end of the guidance envelope and calls for Nate to become a
hurricane in about 48 h and reach the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane.

The initial motion is 325/8. A combination of a large cyclonic gyre
over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward
across the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward
with an increase in forward speed during the next 72 h. While the
guidance is in better agreement on the direction that Nate should
move, there remains disagreement on the speed despite an overall
trend toward a faster motion. The new forecast track is similar to
the direction of the previous track, but shows a faster forward
speed that has the center near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
in about 36 h and near the northern Gulf Coast in about 72 h.
After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its remnants are expected to
recurve northeastward upon encountering the mid-latitude
westerlies.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
Belize through Friday night.

2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct
impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm
warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this
area and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as
a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing. However, it is too early
to specify the exact timing, location, or magnitude of these
impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Nate and heed any
advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 14.3N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 84.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 23.7N 88.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.5N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 36.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 41.5N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050851
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

Deep convection associated with the depression has increased over
the eastern portion of the circulation overnight, however there
has only been a slight increase in overall banding. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the depression is near
tropical-storm strength, but with the center located near the
western edge of the deep convection the cyclone is kept as
a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory.

The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to expected land
interaction today, and possibly again in about 48 hours when the
system passes near the Yucatan peninsula. The depression could
still become a tropical storm before the center moves over
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today. After the
cyclone moves north of Honduras, it will traverse the warm waters of
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, where the upper-level environment is
also forecast to be conducive for strengthening. However, the amount
of strengthening is likely to depend on the structure of the inner
core after it crosses land. The intensity models have continued
their downward trend, but the NHC forecast remains near the higher
side of the guidance due to these favorable conditions and
persistence from the previous advisory. Some additional
strengthening is possible while the system moves over the southern
and central Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC intensity forecast brings
the system to hurricane strength within 72 hours. This is in best
agreement with the SHIPS intensity model.

The depression is moving northwestward or 315/6 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward during the
next day or two around the western side of a ridge the extends from
near the southeastern Bahamas southwestward into the central
Caribbean Sea. By the weekend, a large mid- to upper-level ridge is
forecast to build off the coast of the southeastern United States,
and this should steer the cyclone north-northwestward at a faster
forward speed. After 72 hours, the system is expected to recurve
around the northwestward side of the ridge. The track guidance is
in better agreement this cycle with the latest runs of the ECMWF
and UKMET models shifting westward, closer to the previous GFS and
HWRF iterations. This has required a fairly substantial westward
shift in the NHC forecast track at 72 h and beyond.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early
Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa
Rica, and Panama through Friday night.

2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches
the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch is
in effect for a portion of this area.

3. The system is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and
could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this
weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location,
or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from
Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.3N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 19.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 27.8N 89.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 34.0N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 39.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050248
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

There have been some structural changes to the depression during
the past few hours. Inner-core convection began developing just
after the issuance of the previous advisory, and Colombian radar
images from San Andres are now showing a well-defined convective
band to the east and southeast of the center. Despite these
changes, Dvorak satellite estimates remain T2.0 from TAFB and SAB,
so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The depression probably only has another 12 hours or so before its
center moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua, but it is still
expected to reach tropical storm strength before that happens.
Once the center re-emerges over the waters of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea a little after 24 hours from now, high oceanic heat
content and low shear should contribute to strengthening. Despite
these favorable conditions, the amount of strengthening will be
unclear until we know how well the inner core survives crossing over
Nicaragua and Honduras. Strengthening is likely to continue
through at least day 3 up until the time the cyclone reaches the
central Gulf of Mexico. After day 3, there are some indications
that higher shear and/or cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf
of Mexico could lead to some weakening, but that scenario is by no
means a definite one at this time. Needless to say, there continues
to be greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward just
a bit through day 3 to follow an overall shift in the guidance,
although it should be noted that the official forecast still lies
above the normally skillful HCCA model.

If the intensity forecast is complex, the track forecast is not
much easier. For the first 48 hours, the models appear split on
how the depression will interact with a disturbance currently
located near the Straits of Florida. For example, the ECMWF model
shows some interaction with the disturbance's low-level vorticity,
which swings the depression more to the east on the right side of
the guidance envelope. The GFS, on the other hand, shows no such
interaction and has the cyclone on the western side of the guidance
envelope. This setup has significant downstream effects after 48
hours because it keeps the ECMWF on an eastern route and the GFS on
a western route as the cyclone heads toward the U.S. Gulf coast.
The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly westward,
although it is still not as far west as the consensus aids or the
HCCA model. Interestingly, although the ECMWF ensemble mean is
close to the operational run on the eastern side of the guidance
envelope, there is a high density of members to the left close to
the consensus aids, which lends additional support for the westward
adjustment.

A G-IV mission and Florida special soundings will begin tomorrow to
better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early
Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa
Rica, and Panama through Friday night.

2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches
the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing direct
impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane
watch has been issued for a portion of this area.

3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing,
location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf
Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this
system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local
officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 12.8N 82.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.5N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 15.1N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1200Z 17.6N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 20.2N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.5N 88.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 36.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 042051
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Visible satellite images show that the depression has lots of
curved bands, although it is somewhat lacking any inner core
features. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flew into the
depression this afternoon and found a well-defined circulation, with
maximum flight-level winds of 37 kt and SFMR values around 30 kt.
These data support keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over
the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in
the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices
are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance
of rapid intensification occurring. The fly in the ointment,
however, is all of the potential land interaction, first over
Central America and then possibly over the Yucatan Peninsula. As
a compromise, the intensity forecast is raised considerably from the
previous one during the first 3 days, but is still below some
guidance, such as the HWRF.

The depression continues to move slowly northwestward, steered by a
distant ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. However the steering
pattern is forecast to change quickly tomorrow as a mid-tropospheric
trough over the Florida Straits moves across the northwestern
Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on
the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move
much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. While there is some agreement on the
synoptic pattern, the model track agreement is rather poor, even in
the short term, with the GFS and ECMWF being 90 miles apart on the
forecast track as soon as 24 hours out. This has profound
differences down the road, with the GFS-based guidance moving
considerably faster and to the left of the ECMWF and UKMET across
the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the guidance has generally shifted a
bit westward since the last cycle, so the latest points in the long
range have been adjusted in that direction. At this point, I
wouldn't focus too much attention on the details of the long-range
forecast until the guidance comes into better agreement. A G-IV
mission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow
to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight through
Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa
Rica, and Panama through Friday night.

2. The system is expected to be near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing
direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A
hurricane watch could be issued for this area later this evening.

3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing,
location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf
Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this
system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local
officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 12.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 13.2N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 14.6N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 16.7N 84.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 19.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 25.0N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 35.5N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 041441
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since
yesterday and is now a tropical depression. GOES-16 one-minute
visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands
of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite
classification, given recent microwave data. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
provide a better estimate.

Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental
conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A
large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid
intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or
southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm
and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the
depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The
official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the
high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based
tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around
a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the
aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern
Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on
the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move
much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. As the trough moves away, a building
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system
to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf
states. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to
the representation of the Florida Straits trough. The GFS-based
guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the
new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of
the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the
UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,
but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras
tonight through Thursday.

2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing
or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from
Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for
the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 12.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 12.7N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.8N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 17.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 34.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 081449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Nate's center will continue to move inland across the Deep
South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through
Monday.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate
is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the
the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through
this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and
northern Georgia into the western Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 081152
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...NATE RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 88.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of the
Mississippi/Alabama border.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Alabama/Florida border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border eastward to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 32.0 North, longitude 88.0 West. Nate is moving toward the
north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will continue to move
inland across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central
Appalachian Mountains through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Nate is expected to continue to quickly weaken
as it moves farther inland. It should degenerate into a remnant low
late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (150 km)
primarily southeast of the center over water. A wind gust to 58 mph
(93 km/h) was reported at Destin, Florida within the past couple of
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

Water levels of around 3.0 to 3.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water
(MHHW) have recently been reported by National Ocean Service gauges
at Pensacola, Florida, and Mobile Bay, Alabama.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area for the next couple of hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...5 to 8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...3 to 5
ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today, mainly from the
Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern
Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080914 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

Corrected Storm Surge breakpoint in Hazards section

...NATE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
...RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 88.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Mouth of the Pearl River to the
Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Mouth of the Pearl River,
including Metropolitan New Orleans, and Lakes Pontchartrain and
Maurepas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Pearl River eastward to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 88.4 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate's
center will continue to move inland across the Deep South, Tennessee
Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nate is expected to continue to quickly weaken as it moves
farther inland. It should degenerate into a remnant low late
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Mobile airport recently reported a wind gust of
54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area for the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...5 to 8 ft
North of Pointe a la Hache to the mouth of the Pearl River...4 to 6
ft.
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...3 to 5
ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Pointe a la Hache...1 to 3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today, mainly from the
Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern
Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...NATE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
...RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 88.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Mouth of the Pearl River to the
Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Mouth of the Pearl River,
including Metropolitan New Orleans, and Lakes Pontchartrain and
Maurepas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Pearl River eastward to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 88.4 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate's
center will continue to move inland across the Deep South, Tennessee
Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nate is expected to continue to quickly weaken as it moves
farther inland. It should degenerate into a remnant low late
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Mobile airport recently reported a wind gust of
54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area for the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border,
including Mobile Bay...5 to 8 ft
North of Pointe a la Hache to the mouth of the Pearl River...4 to 6
ft.
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...3 to 5
ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Pointe a la Hache...1 to 3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today, mainly from the
Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern
Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080552
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...EYE OF HURRICANE NATE MOVED OVER KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE WHERE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES RESIDE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 88.9W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Pointe a la Hache.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nate was located
by surface observations and NOAA Doppler radar over Biloxi
Mississippi near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 88.9 West. Nate is
moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
Nate's center will continue to move inland over Mississippi and
across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian
Mountains through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nate is expected to weaken quickly as it moves farther
inland, and it is likely to become a tropical storm later
today. It should degenerate into a remnant low late Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 984 mb
(29.06 inches).

A water level of 4.8 ft Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recently
reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Shell Beach,
Louisiana. The gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi,
recently reported a water level of 5.5 ft MHHW.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in the hurricane warning area for the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area through this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11
ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
North of Pointe a la Hache to the mouth of the Pearl River...4
to 6 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Pointe a la Hache...1 to 3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: additional 1 to 2 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama,
the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern
Mississippi today.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080251
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...NATE'S NORTHERN EYEWALL MOVING ONSHORE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 89.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Grand Isle
Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River and for Lake
Pontchartrain.

The Hurricane Warning from Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the
Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/
Walton County Line has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
radar just offshore of the Mississippi coast near latitude 29.9
North, longitude 89.1 West. Nate is moving toward the north near 20
mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with
an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will make landfall on
the Mississippi coast within the next hour or two. After landfall,
the center of Nate is expected to move across the Deep South,
Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Nate
is expected to weaken quickly after landfall, and it is likely to
become a tropical storm Sunday morning. It should degenerate into
a remnant low late Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06
inches).

A water level of 4.4 ft Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recently
reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Shell Beach,
Louisiana. The gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi,
recently reported a water level of 3.3 ft MHHW.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in the
hurricane warning area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area through Sunday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11
ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the Pearl River...5
to 8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...1 to
3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: additional 1 to 2 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama,
the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern
Mississippi through Sunday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 072352
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...NATE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 89.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The
Hurricane Watch for Lake Maurepas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the
center of Hurricane Nate is now making landfall at the mouth of the
Mississippi River, near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 89.2 West.
Nate is now moving toward the north and a little slower, near 20 mph
(31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later
tonight, followed by a motion toward the northeast on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nate will make a second landfall
along the coast of Mississippi tonight. After landfall, the center
of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama,
and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night.

Aircraft reconnaissance data and Doppler radar velocity data
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening now appears unlikely
before Nate's center reaches the Mississippi coast during the next
few hours. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, with Nate
becoming a tropical depression by Sunday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. A sustained wind
of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) were recently
reported by NOAA buoy 42040 to the east of the mouth of the
Mississippi River.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00
inches).

A water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was
recently reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Pilots
Station East, Southwest Pass, Louisiana.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already
spreading onshore. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7
to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to
4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the
western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi
through Sunday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 072050
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...CENTER OF NATE APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 89.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle.

The Hurricane Watch is discontinued from west of Grand Isle to
Morgan City.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from west of Morgan
City to Intracoastal City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 89.1 West. Nate is moving
toward the north-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the
north and a slight decrease in forward speed are expected during the
next several hours, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
later tonight. A motion toward the northeast is expected on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will pass near or
over the mouth of the Mississippi River during the next few hours,
then make landfall along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana or
Mississippi tonight. After landfall, the center of Nate is expected
to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee late
tonight through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Nate
could still become a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale this evening. Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. The NOAA automated
station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recent reported sustained
winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) at an
elevation of 125 feet.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with
tropical storm conditions currently spreading onshore. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area
tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7
to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to
4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the
western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi
through Sunday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071737
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF NATE MOVING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 88.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.9 West. Nate is moving
rapidly toward the north-northwest near 25 mph (40 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A turn
toward the north is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will
approach the mouth of the Mississippi during the next several hours
and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf Coast tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected before landfall, and Nate is
forecast to be a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale when the center reaches the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km),
primarily to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area beginning in the next several
hours, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the
next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight, and
tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7
to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible beginning late
this afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071454
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...NATE STRENGTHENING AND NOW EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
AT LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 88.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 88.4 West. Nate is moving
rapidly toward the north-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A turn
toward the north is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northeast. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move
across the northern Gulf of Mexico today and will make landfall
along the central U.S. Gulf Coast tonight.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph
(150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected
before landfall, and Nate is forecast to be a category 2 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale when the center reaches
the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km),
primarily to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area this evening and tonight,
with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the next
several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and
tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7
to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible beginning late
this afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071140
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT
NATE IS A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 88.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. Nate is moving toward
the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general fast
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north is forecast on Sunday morning, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of
Nate will move across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico today
and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast tonight.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(135 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
possible before Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
tonight and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
9 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning later
today over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070857
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...HURRICANE NATE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of Cuba and Mexico have discontinued all watches and
warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.


For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. Nate is moving toward
the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general fast
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north is forecast on Sunday morning, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of
Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico today and will make
landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Nate makes landfall
along the northern Gulf coast. Another reconnaissance plane will
investigate Nate soon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). Cabo San Antonio in the western tip of Cuba reported
gusts to 53 mph (85 km/h) a few hours ago.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin earlier. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and
tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
9 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning later
today over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070538
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...HURRRICANE NATE BOOKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the
progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 86.5 West. Nate is moving
toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
fast motion is expected to continue through late Saturday. A turn
toward the north is forecast Saturday night, followed by a turn
toward north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico overnight and on
Saturday, and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast
Saturday evening or Saturday night.

Reports from Air Force aircraft indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected through Saturday up until the
time Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force reconnaisance
aircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the tropical storm warning area in Mexico during the next few
hours. Tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warning
area in Cuba overnight, and are still possible in the watch area in
Cuba during the next few hours.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070255
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE ALMOST A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 86.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch along
the Yucatan peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 86.4 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through late Saturday. A
turn toward the north is forecast Saturday night, followed by a
turn toward north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico overnight and on
Saturday, and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast
Saturday evening or Saturday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected
through Saturday up until the time Nate makes landfall along the
northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center. A wind gust of 52 mph (84
km/h) was recently reported in Isabel Rubio in Pinar del Rio, Cuba.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 990 mb
(29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the tropical storm warning area in Mexico during the next few
hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Cuba tonight, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 062351
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES FIND NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...CENTER NOW MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter planes near
latitude 21.4 North, longitude 85.9 West. Nate is moving toward the
north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward the north and
northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Nate will move near the northeastern coast of
the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will then move into the
southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the northern Gulf coast
Saturday, and then make landfall over the northern Gulf coast
Saturday night or Sunday.

Reports from the reconnaissance planes indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 990
mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador: Lingering inflow bands
will bring additional 2-4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the warning area in Cuba tonight, and are possible in the
watch area in Cuba tonight.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 062054
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 85.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for metropolitan New Orleans
and Lake Pontchartrain.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida
border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 85.7 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward
the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nate will move near or over the
northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the
northern Gulf coast Saturday, and then move make landfall over the
northern Gulf coast Saturday night or Sunday.

Reports from NOAA buoy 42056, located just north and east of the
center, indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Nate is expected to become
a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently
reported a 1-minute average wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a wind
gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
NOAA buoy 42056 reported a minimum pressure of 995.6 mb as the
center of Nate passed nearby.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador: Lingering inflow bands
will bring additional 2-4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the warning area in Cuba tonight, and are possible in the
watch area in Cuba tonight.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...4 to 6 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061738
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...CENTER OF NATE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 85.3 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward
the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea this afternoon and move near or over the northeastern
coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will then move
into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the northern Gulf
coast Saturday, and then move near or over the northern Gulf coast
Saturday night or Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 42056, located to the
north of the center, recently reported a 1-minute average wind of
38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane
Hunter is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states, eastern Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area in Cuba by tonight, and are possible in the watch area
in Cuba tonight.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border...4 to 7 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 85.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM NNE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana
to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
the Alabama/Florida border, and for the northern and western shores
of Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for metropolitan New
Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, and from west of
Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida
border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida
border to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect east of the Okaloosa/Walton
County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Provence of Pinar del Rio and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Provence of the Isle of Youth.

The Meteorological Service of Honduras has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 85.0 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward
the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea today, and move near or over the
northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the
northern Gulf coast Saturday, and then move near or over the
northern Gulf coast Saturday night or Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by
the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
data is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states, eastern Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area in Cuba by tonight, and are possible in the watch area
in Cuba tonight.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, The combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border...4 to 7 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061142
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING NATE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 84.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 17.8 North, longitude 84.8 West. Nate is moving toward the
north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general track with a
marked increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or
two. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea today, and reach the eastern coast of the
Yucatan peninsula early this evening. Nate will then move into the
southern Gulf of Mexico tonight and approach the northern Gulf coast
Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the
northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
portions of the warning area in Honduras during the next few
hours, but gradually subside. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical
storm conditions expected by late this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along
the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane
conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060842
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...TROPICAL STORM NATE HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general track with a marked increase in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
Nate will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, and
reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula early this evening.
Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate
is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the
northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
portions of the warning area in Honduras during the next few
hours, but gradually subside. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical
storm conditions expected by late this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along
the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane
conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060535
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE'S CENTER MOVED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND HEADING FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 84.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located by radar from Honduras and an Air Force reconnaissance plane
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 84.8 West. Nate is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today, with Nate accelerating along that
heading through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate
will move over the Gulf of Honduras and across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea today, and reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula Friday evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf
of Mexico Friday night and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday
evening.

Data from the reconnaissance plane and a NOAA buoy indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it
reaches the central Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from a reconnaissance plane
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Honduras during the next few hours. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions expected by
late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along
the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane
conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060251
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...NATE'S CENTER ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
U.S. GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 84.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including the northern and
western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan
New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border eastward to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida. A
Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued west of Morgan City to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located close to the coast of eastern Honduras near latitude 15.8
North, longitude 84.7 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest
near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected overnight, with Nate accelerating along that heading
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will
move offshore the eastern coast of Honduras during the next several
hours, move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday, and
reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula Friday evening.
Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday night
and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate
is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the
central Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Honduras during the next few hours. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions expected by
late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along
the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane
conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 052332
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...NATE'S CENTER STILL OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 84.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate. A Hurricane Watch and a Storm
Surge Watch will likely be required for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight or Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located inland over eastern Honduras near latitude 15.3 North,
longitude 84.5 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near
10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the
next couple of days with a significant increase in forward speed.
On the forecast track, the center of Nate will continue to move over
eastern Honduras this evening and over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea tonight and Friday. The center is then expected to move near or
over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands late Friday or Friday night, and move into the Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane
strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations into Saturday:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6 to 10 inches, max 20
inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern Costa Rica: 3 to 6 inches, max 10
inches
Northern Honduras/Nicaragua, eastern Yucatan/Belize and western
Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Central Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
Cayman Islands and Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Friday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast
of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 052045
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...CENTER OF NATE MOVING INTO EASTERN HONDURAS...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 84.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate. A Hurricane Watch and a Storm
Surge Watch will likely be required for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight or Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 84.3 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days with a
significant increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the
center of Nate should move across eastern Honduras this evening and
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center
is then expected to move near or over the northeastern part of the
Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands late Friday or Friday
night, and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane
strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations into Saturday:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6 to 10 inches, max 20
inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern Costa Rica: 3 to 6 inches, max 10
inches
Northern Honduras/Nicaragua, eastern Yucatan/Belize and western
Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Central Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
Cayman Islands and Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Friday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near
and to the north of where the center of Nate makes landfall on the
Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast
of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051739
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...CENTER OF NATE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located inland over northeastern Nicaragua near latitude 14.5 North,
longitude 84.0 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected this afternoon or tonight, with that motion
continuing through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Nate should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras this afternoon and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
tonight and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today while the center
is over land. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km)
mainly over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras and Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches
Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast
of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051446
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...CENTER OF NATE NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands from
Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located inland over northeastern Nicaragua near latitude 14.3 North,
longitude 83.7 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through
Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move
across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today and then
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center
is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today while the center is
over land. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras and Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches
Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast
of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051139
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NATE NEAR THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Nate is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. A north-northwestward motion at
a faster forward speed is forecast to begin later today and continue
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate
should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today
and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.
The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan
peninsula late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today as the center
of Nate moves across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight
and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
Puerto Cabezas recently reported a pressure of 1001 mb
(29.56 inches)


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras and Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Eastern portions of the Yucatan peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Tropical
storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Mexico beginning late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast
of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050850
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch westward
along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula to Rio Lagartos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 83.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue this morning. A north-
northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin
later today and continue through Friday night. On the forecast
track, the center of the depression should move across northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today and then over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The center is
expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could strengthen to a tropical storm before
it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua today. Strengthening
is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras and Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Eastern portions of the Yucatan peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras late today and tonight.
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the
watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of
the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas
around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050542
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 83.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 83.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue this morning. A north-
northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin
later today and continue through late Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of the depression should move across northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today and then over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The center is
expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm before
it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua. Additional
strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday
night and Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua later this morning, and spread into
Honduras late today. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of
the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas
around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...DEPRESSION HEADING TOWARD THE NICARAGUA COAST...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 82.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta
Herrero to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the
depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 82.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A
north-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to
begin on Thursday and continue through late Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression should move across
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras on Thursday and then
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The
center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula
late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm before
it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua tomorrow. Additional
strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
Thursday night and Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of
the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas
around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 042338
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 82.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the
depression. A hurricane watch could be issued for portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 82.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue tonight. On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of
the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas
around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 042049
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the
depression. A hurricane watch could be issued for portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue tonight. On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of
the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas
around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 041755
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
THE DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 82.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located by aircraft reconnaissance near latitude 12.3 North,
longitude 82.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest
near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue
today. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the
coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across
portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches
possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are
expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible.
Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 041438
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the
Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the
border with Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across
portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches
possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are
expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible.
Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 080832
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
0900 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS... AND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF POINTE A LA HACHE TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 88.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.1N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.0N 71.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 88.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 081448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 080251
TCMAT1

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
0300 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND FOR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/
WALTON COUNTY LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 89.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 89.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 89.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.3N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.1N 73.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 89.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 072050
TCMAT1

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM WEST OF MORGAN
CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 89.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 89.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.8N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.1N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.9N 83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.1N 77.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 89.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 070857
TCMAT1

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
0900 UTC SAT OCT 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF CUBA AND MEXICO HAVE DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.3N 88.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.4N 88.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.8N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.0N 70.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 071454
TCMAT1

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC SAT OCT 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE,
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 88.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 88.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N 89.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.2N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 88.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 070255
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
0300 UTC SAT OCT 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN CUBA... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND
THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 86.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 86.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.1N 87.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.5N 88.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.4N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.7N 85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 40.5N 76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 44.5N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 86.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 061447
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...AND FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND FROM WEST OF
GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON
COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVENCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVENCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* PINAR DEL RIO
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 85.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 85.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 86.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.8N 88.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.1N 89.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.1N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 37.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 42.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 85.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 060841
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
0900 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN
CUBA... THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 85.1W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 85.1W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N 85.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.7N 87.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.4N 89.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.3N 89.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.5N 74.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 060251
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
0300 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...
EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA...
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS... LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER EASTWARD TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IN FLORIDA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY... LOUISIANA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN
CUBA... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.7W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.7W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 85.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 89.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.5N 90.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.7N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 40.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 84.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 052044
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 84.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 84.3W AT 05/2100Z...INLAND
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 84.0W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 84.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N 86.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.3N 87.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N 89.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 38.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 41.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 84.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 051446
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC THU OCT 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS FROM
PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 83.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 83.7W AT 05/1500Z...INLAND
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 85.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 86.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 88.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 41.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 83.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050850
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO RIO LAGARTOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA
AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 83.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 83.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.8N 89.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 39.5N 79.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 83.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050247
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 82.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 82.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 82.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.5N 83.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.1N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.6N 84.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 86.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.5N 88.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 36.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 82.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 042049
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 82.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.6N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.7N 84.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 35.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 041438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SANDY BAY SIRPI NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
BORDER WITH NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 81.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 81.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.7N 82.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.8N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.9N 85.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 34.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 81.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE