GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOSE-17
in United States, Virgin Islands, U.S., Virgin Islands, British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Guadeloupefrom 05 Sep 2017 15:00 UTC to 13 Sep 2017 15:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone JOSE-17
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Orange alert for storm surge impact in United States

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 33 of tropical cyclone JOSE-17 issued at 13 Sep 2017 15:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000396). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 4
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 250 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Islip, United States. This height is estimated for 19 Sep 2017 17:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

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Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 Islip United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 Islip Terrace United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 East Islip United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 Village of the Branch United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 North Great River United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 Great River United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 Oakdale United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 West Sayville United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 North Amityville United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 North Lindenhurst United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 West Babylon United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 North Babylon United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 West Islip United States  1.0m
19 Sep 2017 17:00:00 West Bay Shore United States  1.0m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 1441)
Calculation based on advisory number 50 of 17 Sep 2017 21:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.