GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Green Tropical Cyclone alert in Mozambique for DINEO-17 from 13 Feb 2017 12:00 UTC to 16 Feb 2017 00:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone DINEO-17
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Green alert for storm surge impact in Mozambique

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 6 of tropical cyclone DINEO-17 issued at 16 Feb 2017 0:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000337).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 510 thousand
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 1
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 130 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Marivate, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Feb 2017 17:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Feb 2017 17:00:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.9m
15 Feb 2017 18:00:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.9m
15 Feb 2017 18:00:00 Maxixe Mozambique  0.8m
15 Feb 2017 18:00:00 Inhambane Mozambique  0.8m
15 Feb 2017 16:00:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.6m
15 Feb 2017 16:00:00 Beula Mozambique  0.6m
15 Feb 2017 19:00:00 Chicoque Mozambique  0.6m
15 Feb 2017 19:00:00 Banga Mozambique  0.6m
15 Feb 2017 16:00:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.5m
15 Feb 2017 18:00:00 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.4m
15 Feb 2017 18:00:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.4m
15 Feb 2017 22:00:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.3m
15 Feb 2017 22:00:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.3m
15 Feb 2017 22:00:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.3m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 62)
Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 16 Feb 2017 00:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.